51
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Sun X, Li BJ, Zhang H, Zhang G. Social media use for coping with stress and psychological adjustment: A transactional model of stress and coping perspective. Front Psychol 2023; 14:1140312. [PMID: 37034939 PMCID: PMC10075314 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1140312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2023] [Accepted: 03/03/2023] [Indexed: 04/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction The psychological well-being of individuals has become an essential issue during the global pandemic. As a pervasive activity for individuals to pull through COVID-19, social media use may play a role in psychological well-being. Drawing on the transactional model of stress and coping, the current study investigated the relationships between COVID-19-related stressors and the use of social media to facilitate specific coping strategies. We further investigated how social media coping strategies impact users' psychological adjustment. Methods We collected the data from 641 quarantined residents through a two-wave survey that was conducted in two cities in China during government-mandated lockdowns. Results The results showed that perceived COVID-19 stress was related to the intensity of social media use for problem-focused coping, socioemotional coping, and mental disengagement. In addition, individuals' psychological adjustment was positively associated with social media use for socioemotional coping and mental disengagement while negatively related to problem-focused coping. Age was also found to be a moderator of the relationship between socioemotional coping and psychological adjustment. Discussion To relieve pandemic-related stress, individuals can actively utilize social media to implement various coping strategies. However, coping activities with social media may not always induce psychological benefits. By revealing the different levels of psychological adjustment among social media users with specific coping strategies, the current research enriched the literature on the effects of social media use on mental health. Findings from this study suggest the need for the prudent use of social media to cope with public health crises.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaobei Sun
- School of Journalism and Communication, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Benjamin J. Li
- Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Heng Zhang
- Wee Kim Wee School of Communication and Information, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
- *Correspondence: Heng Zhang,
| | - Guanwen Zhang
- School of Journalism and Communication, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China
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52
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Wang BG, Wang ZC, Wu Y, Xiong Y, Zhang J, Ma Z. A mathematical model reveals the influence of NPIs and vaccination on SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS 2023; 111:3937-3952. [PMID: 36339320 PMCID: PMC9628561 DOI: 10.1007/s11071-022-07985-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 09/19/2022] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
An SVEIR SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant model is proposed to provide some insights to coordinate non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number R 0 and the effective reproduction number R e to measure the infection potential of Omicron variant and formulate an optimal disease control strategy. Our inversion results imply that the sick period of Omicron variant in the United States is longer than that of Delta variant in India. The decrease in the infectious period of the infection with infectiousness implies that the risk of hospitalization is reduced; but the increasing period of the infection with non-infectiousness signifies that Omicron variant lengthens the period of nucleic acid test being negative. Optimistically, Omicron's death rate is only a quarter of Delta's. Moreover, we forecast that the cumulative cases will exceed 100 million in the United States on February 28, 2022, and the daily confirmed cases will reach a peak on February 2, 2022. The results of parameters sensitivity analysis imply that NPIs are helpful to reduce the number of confirmed cases. In particular, NPIs are indispensable even if all the people were vaccinated when the efficiency of vaccine is relatively low. By simulating the relationships of the effective reproduction number R e , the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine, we find that it is impossible to achieve the herd immunity without NPIs while the efficiency of vaccine is lower than 88.7 % . Therefore, the herd immunity area is defined by the evolution of relationships between the vaccination rate and the efficacy of vaccine. Finally, we present that the disease-induced mortality rate demonstrates the periodic oscillation and an almost periodic function is deduced to match the curve. A discussion completes the paper.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin-Guo Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Cheng Wang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yan Wu
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Yongping Xiong
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiangqian Zhang
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhuihui Ma
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000 People’s Republic of China
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53
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Khan S, Khan MK, Khan R. Harnessing intelligent technologies to curb COVID-19 pandemic: taxonomy and open challenges. COMPUTING 2023; 105:811-830. [PMCID: PMC8324437 DOI: 10.1007/s00607-021-00983-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2021] [Accepted: 07/06/2021] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The world has changed dramatically since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. This has not only affected the humanity, but has also badly damaged the world’s socio-economic system. Currently, people are looking for a magical solution to overcome this pandemic. Similarly, scientists across the globe are working to find remedies to overcome this challenge. The role of technologies is not far behind in this situation, which attracts many sectors from government agencies to medical practitioners, and market analysts. This is quite true that in a few months of time, scientists, researchers, and industrialists have come up with some acceptable innovative solutions and harnessing existing technologies to stop the spread of COVID-19. Therefore, it is pertinent to highlight the role of intelligent technologies, which play a pivotal role in curbing this pandemic. In this paper, we devise a taxonomy related to the technologies being used in the current pandemic. We show that the most prominent technologies are artificial intelligence, machine learning, cloud computing, big data analytics, and blockchain. Moreover, we highlight some key open challenges, which technologists might face to control this outbreak. Finally, we conclude that to impede this pandemic, a collective effort is required from different professionals in support of using existing and new technologies. Finally, we conclude that to stop this pandemic, machine learning approaches with integration of cloud computing using high performance computing could provision the pandemic with minimum cost and time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Suleman Khan
- Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle, Upon Tyne, NE1 8ST United Kingdom
| | - Muhammad Khurram Khan
- College of Computer & Information Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh, 11653 Saudi Arabia
| | - Rizwan Khan
- Institute of Management Sciences (IM-Sciences), Peshawar, Pakistan
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Thakur CK, Adhikari JB, Gupta N, Ghimire P, Dhimal M. Is the emergence of the zoonotic Langya virus amidst COVID-19 and monkeypox a cause for concern? Future Virol 2023; 18:5-7. [PMID: 36864889 PMCID: PMC9969665 DOI: 10.2217/fvl-2022-0175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/03/2023] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Chandan Kumar Thakur
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu, Nepal,Author for correspondence: Tel.: +977 98 4753 2311;
| | - Jog Bahadur Adhikari
- Department of Surgery, Patan Academy of Health Sciences, Lagankhel, Lalitpur, Nepal
| | - Nitin Gupta
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Kasturba Medical College, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal, India
| | - Prakash Ghimire
- Central Department of Microbiology, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal
| | - Meghnath Dhimal
- Nepal Health Research Council, Ramshah Path, Kathmandu, Nepal
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55
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Zhang J, Zha G, Pan X, Zuo D, Xu Q, Wang H. Community centered public safety resilience under public emergencies: A case study of COVID-19. RISK ANALYSIS : AN OFFICIAL PUBLICATION OF THE SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS 2023; 43:114-128. [PMID: 35460097 PMCID: PMC9115487 DOI: 10.1111/risa.13934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
During public emergencies, the level of public safety will be resilient and follow a process from decline to rise. Regarding the concept and influencing factors of public safety resilience, a three-level public safety resilience framework that includes personal, community, and government levels was proposed in this study. It provided the overall metrics that used the resistance and recovery ability to describe the dynamic characteristics of public safety resilience as well as the resilience assessment indexes on three levels. In the context of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this study applied the proposed framework in a case study on public safety resilience at the Beihang community, Beijing, China through descriptive statistics, structural equation model, and principal component regression analysis of questionnaire data. The data analysis results showed that community resilience was the most important of the three levels of public safety resilience. In addition, community resilience could improve personal resilience, and government resilience had a positive effect on community and personal resilience. Compared with the resistance ability, the recovery ability was influenced more by the operation and improvement of the community. This study is conducive to understanding and improving public safety resilience on the personal, community, and government levels and can help relevant parties improve their ability to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the methods used in this study can be extended to other studies on public emergencies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaxin Zhang
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Guoqing Zha
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Xing Pan
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Dujun Zuo
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Qianxin Xu
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Huixiong Wang
- School of Reliability & Systems EngineeringBeihang UniversityBeijingChina
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56
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Numerical simulations on scale-free and random networks for the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan ☆. ALEXANDRIA ENGINEERING JOURNAL 2023; 62:75-83. [PMCID: PMC9335154 DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2022.07.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Revised: 07/07/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Epidemiology is the study of how and why an infectious disease occurs in a group of people. Several epidemiological models have been developed to get information on the spread of a disease in society. That information is used to plan strategies to prevent illness and manage patients. But, most of these models consider only random diffusion of the disease and hence ignore the number of interactions among people. To take into account the interactions among individuals, the network approach is becoming increasingly popular. It is novel to consider the dynamics of infectious disease using various networks rather than classical differential equation models. In this paper, we numerically simulate the Susceptible-Infected-Recoverd (SIR) model on Barabási-Albert network and Erdös-Rényi network to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in Pakistan so that we know the severity of the disease. We also show how a situation becomes alarming if hubs in a network get infected.
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57
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A Mathematical Evaluation of the Cost-Effectiveness of Self-Protection, Vaccination, and Disinfectant Spraying for COVID-19 Control. COMPUTATIONAL AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS IN MEDICINE 2022. [DOI: 10.1155/2022/1715414] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
The world is on its path from the post-COVID period, but a fresh wave of the coronavirus infection engulfing most European countries makes the pandemic catastrophic. Mathematical models are of significant importance in unveiling strategies that could stem the spread of the disease. In this paper, a deterministic mathematical model of COVID-19 is studied to characterize a range of feasible control strategies to mitigate the disease. We carried out an analytical investigation of the model’s dynamic behaviour at its equilibria and observed that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number,
is less than unity. The endemic equilibrium is also shown to be globally asymptotically stable when
. Further, we showed that the model exhibits forward bifurcation around
. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the impact of various factors on the basic reproduction number
and consequently, the spread of the disease. An optimal control problem was formulated from the sensitivity analysis. Cost-effectiveness analysis is conducted to determine the most cost-effective strategy that can be adopted to control the spread of COVID-19. The investigation revealed that combining self-protection and environmental control is the most cost-effective control strategy among the enlisted strategies.
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Rosero ID, Barreto J, Cardona C, Ordoñez-Mora LT. Physical, Functional, Psychological, and Social Effects of a Physical Activity Program in Adults and Older Adults During and/or After Hospitalization for COVID-19: A Systematic Review. Risk Manag Healthc Policy 2022; 15:2399-2412. [PMID: 36578453 PMCID: PMC9791952 DOI: 10.2147/rmhp.s386708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background It is necessary to investigate the effects of physical activity (PA) on the recovery of adults and the elderly, considering PA positively affects pathologies that share similarities with COVID-19. We present the results of a systematic review whose objective was to analyze the physical, functional, psychological, and social effects of PA in adults and the elderly during and/or after hospitalization for COVID-19. Methods Searches were conducted between July and August 2021, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) and non-randomized interventional studies were included in the databases: PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCOhost, Science Direct, Cochrane Library, Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro), and electronic search engines. Study quality was assessed using the PEDro for RCTs and the methodological index scale for non-randomized studies. This systematic review included original articles investigating the physical, functional, psychological, and social effects of any PA program on adults and older adults. Results A total of 302 studies were found. After applying filters according to the eligibility criteria, five studies were finally included for analysis, three RCTs and two intervention studies without a control group. Although the studies measured different variables of the physical, functional, and psychological components, the results showed significant differences in the variables between the control and intervention groups in both the RCTs and the single-group studies. The variables assessed in the social aspect were less homogeneous. Conclusion In the available scientific evidence, respiratory muscle training was the most widely used intervention, which showed positive results in the physical, pulmonary, psychological, and social components. More research is required on the effects of PA on the population studied.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ilem D Rosero
- Faculty of Health, Physiotherapy Program, Health and Movement Research Group, Universidad Santiago de Cali, Cali, Colombia
| | - Julieth Barreto
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Psychology Program, Psidepaz Research Group, Universidad Libre, Cali, Colombia
| | - Carlos Cardona
- Faculty of Education and Pedagogy, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia
| | - Leidy T Ordoñez-Mora
- Faculty of Health, Physiotherapy Program, Health and Movement Research Group, Universidad Santiago de Cali, Cali, Colombia
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Sokolovska L, Terentjeva-Decuka A, Cistjakovs M, Nora-Krukle Z, Gravelsina S, Vilmane A, Vecvagare K, Murovska M. The presence of SARS-CoV-2 in multiple clinical specimens of a fatal case of COVID-19: a case report. J Med Case Rep 2022; 16:484. [PMID: 36550575 PMCID: PMC9773521 DOI: 10.1186/s13256-022-03706-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/28/2021] [Accepted: 12/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The risk of developing severe and even fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increases with various factors such as advanced age and chronic diseases, especially those treated with immunosuppressive drugs. Viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) and viral load detection in extra-pulmonary specimens have been proposed to indicate disease severity. CASE PRESENTATION Here we describe a fatal COVID-19 case of an 83-year-old Caucasian male patient with various underlying comorbidities, including cardiovascular and autoimmune disorders, as well as immunosuppression due to lymphoma treatment. Upon admission, the patient was radiologically diagnosed with severe COVID-19. The patient was febrile and presented with diarrhea, continued dyspnea, tachypnea, and low blood oxygen saturation, treated with high-concentration oxygen supplementation and antibacterial therapy. Overall the patient was treated for COVID-19 for 19 days. Blood tests were performed upon admission, on the fifth, 10th, 13th, and 19th day. In addition, nasopharyngeal swab, blood, urine, and fecal samples were collected from the patient on the 14th day for virological and immunological investigations. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detectable in all samples collected from this patient, including blood plasma and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), with very high viral loads. However, neither virus-specific IgA, IgM, nor IgG antibodies were detectable. CONCLUSIONS The various cardiovascular, autoimmune, and oncological disorders, advanced age, and the high levels of inflammatory markers predisposed the patient to severe COVID-19 and determined the fatal outcome of the disease. We believe that the multiple specimen SARS-CoV-2 positivity and extremely high viral loads in nasopharyngeal swab and fecal samples to be the result of COVID-19 severity, the inability of viral clearance and weakened immune response due to advanced age, comorbidities, and the presence of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and the immunosuppressive treatment for it, highlighting the risks of COVID-19 in such patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liba Sokolovska
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Anna Terentjeva-Decuka
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Maksims Cistjakovs
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Zaiga Nora-Krukle
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Sabine Gravelsina
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Anda Vilmane
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Katrine Vecvagare
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
| | - Modra Murovska
- grid.17330.360000 0001 2173 9398Institute of Microbiology and Virology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, 1067 Latvia
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Izadi N, Taherpour N, Mokhayeri Y, Sotoodeh Ghorbani S, Rahmani K, Hashemi Nazari SS. Epidemiologic Parameters for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Med J Islam Repub Iran 2022; 36:155. [PMID: 36654849 PMCID: PMC9832936 DOI: 10.47176/mjiri.36.155] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to be a public health emergency and international concern and recognized it as a pandemic. This study aimed to estimate the epidemiologic parameters of the COVID-19 pandemic for clinical and epidemiological help. Methods: In this systematic review and meta-analysis study, 4 electronic databases, including Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar were searched for the literature published from early December 2019 up to 23 March 2020. After screening, we selected 76 articles based on epidemiological parameters, including basic reproduction number, serial interval, incubation period, doubling time, growth rate, case-fatality rate, and the onset of symptom to hospitalization as eligibility criteria. For the estimation of overall pooled epidemiologic parameters, fixed and random effect models with 95% CI were used based on the value of between-study heterogeneity (I2). Results: A total of 76 observational studies were included in the analysis. The pooled estimate for R0 was 2.99 (95% CI, 2.71-3.27) for COVID-19. The overall R0 was 3.23, 1.19, 3.6, and 2.35 for China, Singapore, Iran, and Japan, respectively. The overall serial interval, doubling time, and incubation period were 4.45 (95% CI, 4.03-4.87), 4.14 (95% CI, 2.67-5.62), and 4.24 (95% CI, 3.03-5.44) days for COVID-19. In addition, the overall estimation for the growth rate and the case fatality rate for COVID-19 was 0.38% and 3.29%, respectively. Conclusion: The epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 as an emerging disease may be revealed by computing the pooled estimate of the epidemiological parameters, opening the door for health policymakers to consider additional control measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Neda Izadi
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid
Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Niloufar Taherpour
- Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Shahid Beheshti
University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Yaser Mokhayeri
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Shahid Rahimi Hospital, Lorestan
University of Medical Sciences, Khorramabad, Iran
| | - Sahar Sotoodeh Ghorbani
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid
Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Khaled Rahmani
- Liver and Digestive Research Center, Research Institute for Health
Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari
- Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of
Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of
Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran, Corresponding author:Seyed Saeed
Hashemi Nazari,
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Joo LK, Sazali MF, Goroh M, Zefong AC, Maluda MCM, Avoi R, Gantul VJ. Predictors of severe COVID-19 among healthcare workers in Sabah, Malaysia. BMC Health Serv Res 2022; 22:1541. [PMID: 36528610 PMCID: PMC9758662 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-022-08920-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthcare workers (HCWs) is the high-risk group for COVID-19 infection due to increased workplace exposure. However, evidence of the disease burden and factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection among HCWs is limited. Therefore, this article aims to describe the prevalence of severe COVID-19 disease among HCWs in Sabah, Malaysia, and to determine the factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection. METHOD A retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out by assessing the data of COVID-19-infected HCWs in Sabah, Malaysia, from 1st March 2021 until 30th September 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used in this study. RESULTS Three thousand and forty HCWs were diagnosed with COVID-19 from 1st March 2021 until 30th September 2021. Of the 3040 HCWs, 2948 (97.0%) HCWs were mild, whereas 92 (3.0%) were severe. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that severe COVID-19 among HCWs in Sabah was associated with those do not receive any COVID-19 vaccination (aOR 6.061, 95% CI 3.408 - 10.780), underlying co-morbidity (aOR 3.335, 95% CI 2.183 - 5.096), and female (aOR 1.833, 95% CI 1.090 - 3.081). CONCLUSION HCWs should strictly adhere to preventive measures, including vaccination, personal protective equipment, and early referral to a physician upon identifying severe COVID-19 infection. Early screening and aggressive co-morbidity treatment among HCWs are essential for public health practitioners to prevent severe COVID-19 disease. Regardless of co-morbidity status, HCWs should stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccination, including booster doses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lim Kai Joo
- Sabah State Health Department, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Malaysia ,grid.415759.b0000 0001 0690 5255Penampang District Health Office, Sabah State Health Department, Ministry of Health, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
| | - Mohd Fazeli Sazali
- grid.265727.30000 0001 0417 0814Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Malaysia
| | - Michelle Goroh
- Sabah State Health Department, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Malaysia
| | - Abraham Chin Zefong
- Sabah State Health Department, Ministry of Health Malaysia, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Malaysia
| | | | - Richard Avoi
- grid.265727.30000 0001 0417 0814Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, University Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Sabah Malaysia
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Amaral AVR, González JA, Moraga P. Spatio-temporal modeling of infectious diseases by integrating compartment and point process models. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT : RESEARCH JOURNAL 2022; 37:1519-1533. [PMID: 36530377 PMCID: PMC9746591 DOI: 10.1007/s00477-022-02354-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Infectious disease modeling plays an important role in understanding disease spreading dynamics and can be used for prevention and control. The well-known SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) compartment model and spatial and spatio-temporal statistical models are common choices for studying problems of this kind. This paper proposes a spatio-temporal modeling framework to characterize infectious disease dynamics by integrating the SIR compartment and log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) models. The method's performance is assessed via simulation using a combination of real and synthetic data for a region in São Paulo, Brazil. We also apply our modeling approach to analyze COVID-19 dynamics in Cali, Colombia. The results show that our modified LGCP model, which takes advantage of information obtained from the previous SIR modeling step, leads to a better forecasting performance than equivalent models that do not do that. Finally, the proposed method also allows the incorporation of age-stratified contact information, which provides valuable decision-making insights. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00477-022-02354-4.
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Affiliation(s)
- André Victor Ribeiro Amaral
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Jonatan A. González
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - Paula Moraga
- CEMSE Division, Statistics Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
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Wan EYF, Ng VWS, Chang RS, Yan VKC, Chui CSL, Wong CKH, Li X, Lai FTT, Chan EWY, Hung IFN, Lau KK, Wong ICK. Association between the risk of seizure and COVID-19 vaccinations: A self-controlled case-series study. Epilepsia 2022; 63:3100-3110. [PMID: 36226469 PMCID: PMC9874430 DOI: 10.1111/epi.17436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/10/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The risk of seizure following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations has been sparsely investigated. This study aimed to evaluate this association. METHOD Patients who had their first seizure-related hospitalization between February 23, 2021 and January 31, 2022, were identified in Hong Kong. All seizure episodes happening on the day of vaccination (day 0) were excluded, since clinicians validated that most of the cases on day 0 were syncopal episodes. Within-individual comparison using a modified self-controlled case series analysis was applied to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of seizure using conditional Poisson regression. RESULTS We identified 1656 individuals who had their first seizure-related hospitalization (BNT162b2: 426; CoronaVac: 263; unvaccinated: 967) within the observation period. The incidence of seizure was 1.04 (95% CI .80-1.33) and 1.11 (95% CI .80-1.50) per 100 000 doses of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac administered, respectively. Sixteen and 17 individuals, respectively, received a second dose after having a first seizure within 28 days after the first dose of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations. None had recurrent seizures after the second dose. There was no increased risk during day 1-6 after the first (BNT162b2: IRR = 1.39, 95% CI = .75-2.58; CoronaVac: IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = .50-2.83) and second doses (BNT162b2: IRR = 1.36, 95% CI = .72-2.57; CoronaVac: IRR = .71, 95% CI = .22-2.30) of vaccinations. During 7-13, 14-20, and 21-27 days post-vaccination, no association was observed for either vaccine. SIGNIFICANCE The findings demonstrated no increased risk of seizure following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccinations. Future studies will be warranted to evaluate the risk of seizure following COVID-19 vaccinations in different populations, with subsequent doses to ensure the generalizability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric Yuk Fai Wan
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina
| | - Vanessa Wai Sei Ng
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina
| | - Richard Shek‐Kwan Chang
- Division of Neurology, Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina
| | - Vincent Ka Chun Yan
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina
| | - Celine Sze Ling Chui
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina,School of Nursing, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina,School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina
| | - Carlos King Ho Wong
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Department of Family Medicine and Primary Care, School of Clinical Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina
| | - Xue Li
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina,Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina
| | - Francisco Tsz Tsun Lai
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina
| | - Esther Wai Yin Chan
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina,The University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Institute of Research and InnovationShenzhenChina,Department of PharmacyThe University of Hong Kong‐Shenzhen HospitalShenzhenChina
| | - Ivan Fan Ngai Hung
- Department of Medicine, School of Clinical Medicine, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina
| | - Kui Kai Lau
- Division of Neurology, Department of Medicine, Queen Mary Hospital, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina,The State Key Laboratory of Brain and Cognitive SciencesThe University of Hong KongHong KongChina
| | - Ian Chi Kei Wong
- Centre for Safe Medication Practice and Research, Department of Pharmacology and Pharmacy, Li Ka Shing Faculty of MedicineThe University of Hong KongHong Kong SARChina,Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited (D4H)Hong Kong Science ParkHong Kong SARChina,Department of PharmacyThe University of Hong Kong‐Shenzhen HospitalShenzhenChina,Research Department of Practice and Policy, School of PharmacyUniversity College LondonLondonUK,Aston Pharmacy SchoolAston UniversityBirminghamUK
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64
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Anupriya, Bansal P, Graham DJ. Modelling the propagation of infectious disease via transportation networks. Sci Rep 2022; 12:20572. [PMID: 36446795 PMCID: PMC9707165 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24866-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/14/2022] [Accepted: 11/22/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave of COVID-19 infections in (i) Italy, and, (ii) the New York Tri-State area. We use daily data on mobility between Italian provinces (province-level OD data) and between Tri-State Area counties (county-level OD data), and daily reported caseloads at the same geographical levels. Our empirical results indicate substantial predictive power, particularly during the early stages of the outbreak. Our model forecasts at least 85% of the spatial variation in observed weekly COVID-19 cases. Most importantly, our model delivers crucial metrics to identify target areas for intervention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anupriya
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Transport Strategy Centre, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ UK
| | - Prateek Bansal
- grid.4280.e0000 0001 2180 6431Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Queenstown, 119077 Singapore
| | - Daniel J. Graham
- grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Transport Strategy Centre, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ UK
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65
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Yin YS, Minacapelli CD, Parmar V, Catalano CC, Bhurwal A, Gupta K, Rustgi VK, Blaser MJ. Alterations of the fecal microbiota in relation to acute COVID-19 infection and recovery. MOLECULAR BIOMEDICINE 2022; 3:36. [PMID: 36437420 PMCID: PMC9702442 DOI: 10.1186/s43556-022-00103-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2022] [Accepted: 11/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
People with acute COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 infection experience a range of symptoms, but major factors contributing to severe clinical outcomes remain to be understood. Emerging evidence suggests associations between the gut microbiome and the severity and progression of COVID-19. To better understand the host-microbiota interactions in acute COVID-19, we characterized the intestinal microbiome of patients with active SARS-CoV-2 infection in comparison to recovered patients and uninfected healthy controls. We performed 16S rRNA sequencing of stool samples collected between May 2020 and January 2021 from 20 COVID-19-positive patients, 20 COVID-19-recovered subjects and 20 healthy controls. COVID-19-positive patients had altered microbiome community characteristics compared to the recovered and control subjects, as assessed by both α- and β-diversity differences. In COVID-19-positive patients, we observed depletion of Bacteroidaceae, Ruminococcaceae, and Lachnospiraceae, as well as decreased relative abundances of the genera Faecalibacterium, Adlercreutzia, and the Eubacterium brachy group. The enrichment of Prevotellaceae with COVID-19 infection continued after viral clearance; antibiotic use induced further gut microbiota perturbations in COVID-19-positive patients. In conclusion, we present evidence that acute COVID-19 induces gut microbiota dysbiosis with depletion of particular populations of commensal bacteria, a phenomenon heightened by antibiotic exposure, but the general effects do not persist post-recovery.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yue Sandra Yin
- Center for Advanced Biotechnology and Medicine, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| | - Carlos D Minacapelli
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson School of Medicine, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.,Center for Liver Diseases and Liver Masses, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Veenat Parmar
- Center for Advanced Biotechnology and Medicine, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
| | - Carolyn C Catalano
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson School of Medicine, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.,Center for Liver Diseases and Liver Masses, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Abhishek Bhurwal
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson School of Medicine, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.,Center for Liver Diseases and Liver Masses, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Kapil Gupta
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson School of Medicine, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.,Center for Liver Diseases and Liver Masses, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Vinod K Rustgi
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson School of Medicine, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. .,Center for Liver Diseases and Liver Masses, Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
| | - Martin J Blaser
- Center for Advanced Biotechnology and Medicine, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA.
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66
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Babicki M, Kowalski K, Bogudzińska B, Mastalerz-Migas A. Alterations in mental health and quality of life among healthcare workers in times of COVID-19: Four-stage cross-sectional study during first four pandemic waves in Poland. Front Psychiatry 2022; 13:1027734. [PMID: 36506428 PMCID: PMC9729733 DOI: 10.3389/fpsyt.2022.1027734] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/25/2022] [Accepted: 10/26/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had many unexpected effects that have affected the mental health of healthcare workers. In response to the crisis, healthcare workers appear to be the most vulnerable to the psychological effects of the pandemic. The purpose of the study was to assess the prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms and healthcare workers' quality of life during the different stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Materials and methods The questionnaire was distributed in four stages corresponding to the different waves of the pandemic in Poland. The last stage of the study covered the period from November 1, 2021 to November 31, 2021 which coincided with the fourth wave of COVID-19 in Poland. The Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II), Generalized Anxiety Disorderd-7 (GAD-7), and Manchester Brief Assessment of Quality of Life (MANSA) scales were used. Results A total of 1,243 respondents participated. A gradual increase in moderate and severe anxiety was observed as the pandemic continued, comparing waves I and IV of the pandemic. No statistically significant differences were observed in comparing the mean values of the BDI-II, GAD-7, and MANSA scales across waves. A decrease in fear due to the disease and neighbor's quarantine was found. Women, single people and those with a psychiatric history are more likely to be affected by the destructive impact of the pandemic. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is significantly affecting the mental health and quality of life of healthcare workers, but trend is not uniform. It is necessary to continue monitoring the mental health of medical workers, who are the most important link in the fight against the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mateusz Babicki
- Department of Family Medicine, Wrocław Medical University, Wrocław, Poland
| | - Krzysztof Kowalski
- Division of Consultation Psychiatry and Neuroscience, Department of Psychiatry, Wrocław Medical University, Wrocław, Poland
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67
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Obnial JC, Suzuki M, Escuadra CJ, Austria JT, Ponce MJM, Cunanan E. Effectiveness of Bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination policies in reducing infection and mortality of COVID-19: a systematic review. Glob Health Res Policy 2022; 7:42. [PMID: 36336688 PMCID: PMC9638327 DOI: 10.1186/s41256-022-00275-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2021] [Accepted: 10/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 vaccination has been advocated as the most effective way to curb the pandemic. But with its inequitable distribution and slow rollout, especially in low- to middle- income countries, it will still take a long time before herd immunity is achieved. Alternative measures must therefore be explored to bolster current COVID-19 vaccination efforts. In particular, the Bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccine has been studied extensively as to its proposed conferment of non-specific immunity against different infections, including COVID-19. The aim of this study, therefore, is to evaluate the current evidence on the effectiveness of national BCG vaccination policies in reducing infection and mortality of COVID-19. METHODS A systematic review was conducted between April to August 2021 following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA-P) guidelines. Literature was retrieved from PubMed, Cochrane, HERDIN, Web of Science, EBSCO, and Western Pacific Region Index Medicus (WPRIM). Studies conducted from January 2020 to August 2021 that fell within Level 1A to 2C of the Oxford Center for Evidence-Based Medicine were included in the review. Quality assessment was performed using the appropriate Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool and a quality assessment checklist for ecological studies adapted from Betran et al. RESULTS: A total of 13 studies were included in this review. Nine studies reported significant association between BCG vaccination policies and COVID-19 outcomes, even when controlling for confounding variables. In addition, among other mandated vaccines, such as pneumococcal, influenza, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, and measles, only BCG vaccination showed significant association with decreased COVID-19 adverse outcomes. However, other factors also showed positive association with COVID-19 outcomes, particularly markers of high economic status of countries, higher median age, and greater population densities. CONCLUSION The lower incidence and mortality of COVID-19 in countries with mandated BCG vaccination may not solely be attributable to BCG vaccination policies, but there is still some evidence that demonstrates a possible protective effect. Clinical trials must be continued before recommendations of BCG vaccinations are to be used as an alternative or booster vaccine against COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mystie Suzuki
- Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines
| | - Catherine Joy Escuadra
- College of Rehabilitation Sciences, University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines.,Department of Education, Graduate School, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | | | | | - Elaine Cunanan
- Faculty of Medicine and Surgery, University of Santo Tomas, Manila, Philippines.,University of Santo Tomas Hospital, Manila, Philippines
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68
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Wu M, Li C, Shen Z, He S, Tang L, Zheng J, Fang Y, Li K, Cheng Y, Shi Z, Sheng G, Liu Y, Zhu J, Ye X, Chen J, Chen W, Li L, Sun Y, Chen J. Use of temporal contact graphs to understand the evolution of COVID-19 through contact tracing data. COMMUNICATIONS PHYSICS 2022; 5:270. [PMID: 36373056 PMCID: PMC9638278 DOI: 10.1038/s42005-022-01045-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/17/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Digital contact tracing has been recently advocated by China and many countries as part of digital prevention measures on COVID-19. Controversies have been raised about their effectiveness in practice as it remains open how they can be fully utilized to control COVID-19. In this article, we show that an abundance of information can be extracted from digital contact tracing for COVID-19 prevention and control. Specifically, we construct a temporal contact graph that quantifies the daily contacts between infectious and susceptible individuals by exploiting a large volume of location-related data contributed by 10,527,737 smartphone users in Wuhan, China. The temporal contact graph reveals five time-varying indicators can accurately capture actual contact trends at population level, demonstrating that travel restrictions (e.g., city lockdown) in Wuhan played an important role in containing COVID-19. We reveal a strong correlation between the contacts level and the epidemic size, and estimate several significant epidemiological parameters (e.g., serial interval). We also show that user participation rate exerts higher influence on situation evaluation than user upload rate does, indicating a sub-sampled dataset would be as good at prediction. At individual level, however, the temporal contact graph plays a limited role, since the behavior distinction between the infected and uninfected individuals are not substantial. The revealed results can tell the effectiveness of digital contact tracing against COVID-19, providing guidelines for governments to implement interventions using information technology.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mincheng Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Chao Li
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Zhangchong Shen
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Shibo He
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Lingling Tang
- Shulan (Hangzhou) Hospital Affiliated to Shulan International Medical College, Zhejiang Shuren University, Hangzhou, 310015 China
| | - Jie Zheng
- Zhejiang Institute of Medical-care Information Technology, Hangzhou, 311100 China
| | - Yi Fang
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Kehan Li
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Yanggang Cheng
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Zhiguo Shi
- College of Information Science and Electronic Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Guoping Sheng
- Shulan (Hangzhou) Hospital Affiliated to Shulan International Medical College, Zhejiang Shuren University, Hangzhou, 310015 China
| | - Yu Liu
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Jinxing Zhu
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Xinjiang Ye
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Jinlai Chen
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Wenrong Chen
- Westlake Institute for Data Intelligence, Hangzhou, 310012 China
| | - Lanjuan Li
- State Key Laboratory for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Youxian Sun
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
| | - Jiming Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Industrial Control Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
- College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027 China
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Ahmar Rauf M, Nisar M, Abdelhady H, Gavande N, Iyer AK. Nanomedicine approaches to reduce cytokine storms in severe infections. Drug Discov Today 2022; 27:103355. [PMID: 36099962 PMCID: PMC9465473 DOI: 10.1016/j.drudis.2022.103355] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2022] [Revised: 08/16/2022] [Accepted: 09/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
During a cytokine storm, dysregulated proinflammatory cytokines are produced in excess. Cytokine storms occur in multiple infectious diseases, including Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). Thus, eliminating cytokine storms to enhance patient outcomes is crucial. Given the numerous cytokines involved, individual therapies might have little effect. Traditional cytokines might be less effective than medicines that target malfunctioning macrophages. Nanomedicine-based therapeutics reduce cytokine production in animal models of proinflammatory illnesses. The unique physicochemical features and controlled nano-bio interactions of nanotechnology show promise in healthcare and could be used to treat several stages of this virus-induced sickness, including cytokine storm mortality. Macrophage-oriented nanomedicines can minimize cytokine storms and associated harmful effects, enhancing patient outcomes. Here, we also discuss engineering possibilities for enhancing macrophage efficacy with nanodrug carriers.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohd Ahmar Rauf
- Department of Surgery, Miller School of Medicine, Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Centre, University of Miami, FL 33136, USA; Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48201, USA
| | - Maryam Nisar
- Department of Biochemistry, Aligarh Muslim University, Aligarh, UP 202002, India
| | - Hosam Abdelhady
- Department of Physiology & Pharmacology, College of Osteopathic Medicine, Sam Houston State University, Conroe, TX 77341, USA
| | - Navnath Gavande
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48201, USA
| | - Arun K Iyer
- Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48201, USA.
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Park D, Boudier-Revéret M, Chang MC. The pros and cons of entry restrictions: are entry restrictions really effective in preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2? JOURNAL OF YEUNGNAM MEDICAL SCIENCE 2022; 39:344-346. [PMID: 35108763 PMCID: PMC9580053 DOI: 10.12701/yujm.2021.01599] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 12/09/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has rapidly spread worldwide, leading the World Health Organization to declare coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. To curb the unchecked spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection, most countries have enforced travel restrictions. However, it is debatable whether such restrictions are effective in containing infections and preventing pandemics. Rather, they may negatively impact economies and diplomatic relationships. Each government should conduct an extensive and appropriate analysis of its national economy, diplomatic status, and COVID-19 preparedness to decide whether it is best to restrict entering travelers. Even if travelers from other countries are allowed entry, extensive contact tracing is required to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In addition, governments can implement “travel bubbles,” which allow the quarantine-free flow of people among countries with relatively low levels of community transmission. An accurate evaluation of the benefits and losses due to entry restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic would be helpful in determining whether entry restrictions are an effective measure to reduce the spread of infection in future pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Donghwi Park
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Ulsan University Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Ulsan, Korea
| | - Mathieu Boudier-Revéret
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Centre Hospitalier de l’Université de Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - Min Cheol Chang
- Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, Daegu, Korea
- Corresponding author: Min Cheol Chang, MD Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Yeungnam University College of Medicine, 170 Hyeonchung-ro, Nam-gu, Daegu 42415, Korea Tel: +82-53-620-4682 Fax: 0504-231-8694 E-mail:
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Neuro–Immune Interactions in Severe COVID-19 Infection. Pathogens 2022; 11:pathogens11111256. [PMID: 36365007 PMCID: PMC9699641 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens11111256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 10/26/2022] [Accepted: 10/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 is a new coronavirus that has affected the world since 2019. Interstitial pneumonia is the most common clinical presentation, but additional symptoms have been reported, including neurological manifestations. Severe forms of infection, especially in elderly patients, present as an excessive inflammatory response called “cytokine storm”, which can lead to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multiorgan failure and death. Little is known about the relationship between symptoms and clinical outcomes or the characteristics of virus–host interactions. The aim of this narrative review is to highlight possible links between neurological involvement and respiratory damage mediated by pathological inflammatory pathways in SARS-CoV-2 infection. We will focus on neuro–immune interactions and age-related immunity decline and discuss some pathological mechanisms that contribute to negative outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, we will describe available therapeutic strategies and their effects on COVID-19 neurological symptoms.
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Ferreira GM, Claro IM, Grosche VR, Cândido D, José DP, Rocha EC, de Moura Coletti T, Manuli ER, Gaburo N, Faria NR, Sabino EC, de Jesus JG, Jardim ACG. Molecular characterization and sequecing analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Biologicals 2022; 80:43-52. [PMID: 36175304 PMCID: PMC9436897 DOI: 10.1016/j.biologicals.2022.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/25/2022] [Revised: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in Wuhan, China, is the causative agent of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its first notification in São Paulo state (SP) on 26th February 2020, more than 22,300,000 cases and 619,000 deaths were reported in Brazil. In early pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 spread locally, however, over time, this virus was disseminated to other regions of the country. Herein, we performed genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 using 20 clinical samples of COVID-19 confirmed cases from 9 cities of Minas Gerais state (MG), in order to evaluate the molecular properties of circulating viral strains in this locality from March to May 2020. Our analyses demonstrated the circulation of B.1 lineage isolates in the investigated locations and nucleotide substitutions were observed into the genomic regions related to important viral structures. Additionally, sequences generated in this study clustered with isolates from SP, suggesting a dissemination route between these two states. Alternatively, monophyletic groups of sequences from MG and other states or country were observed, indicating independent events of virus introduction. These results reinforce the need of genomic surveillance for understand the ongoing spread of emerging viral pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Ingra Morales Claro
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Victória Riquena Grosche
- Institute of Biomedical Science, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brazil; Institute of Bioscience, Humanities and Exact Sciences, São Paulo State University, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Darlan Cândido
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Esmenia Coelho Rocha
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Thaís de Moura Coletti
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Erika Regina Manuli
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Nuno Rodrigues Faria
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; MCR Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, J-IDEA, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ester Cerdeira Sabino
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jaqueline Goes de Jesus
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil; Department of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Ana Carolina Gomes Jardim
- Institute of Biomedical Science, Federal University of Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brazil; Institute of Bioscience, Humanities and Exact Sciences, São Paulo State University, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil.
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A mathematical model for simulating the spread of a disease through a country divided into geographical regions with different population densities. J Math Biol 2022; 85:32. [PMID: 36114922 PMCID: PMC9483512 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-022-01803-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2021] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The SIR (susceptible-infectious-recovered) model is a well known method for predicting the number of people (or animals) in a population who become infected by and then recover from a disease. Modifications can include categories such people who have been exposed to the disease but are not yet infectious or those who die from the disease. However, the model has nearly always been applied to the entire population of a country or state but there is considerable observational evidence that diseases can spread at different rates in densely populated urban regions and sparsely populated rural areas. This work presents a new approach that applies a SIR type model to a country or state that has been divided into a number of geographical regions, and uses different infection rates in each region which depend on the population density in that region. Further, the model contains a simple matrix based method for simulating the movement of people between different regions. The model is applied to the spread of disease in the United Kingdom and the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil.
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Kumar V, Kumar S, Sharma PC. Recent advances in the vaccine development for the prophylaxis of SARS Covid-19. Int Immunopharmacol 2022; 111:109175. [PMID: 35994853 PMCID: PMC9381430 DOI: 10.1016/j.intimp.2022.109175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/08/2022] [Revised: 08/08/2022] [Accepted: 08/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-caused Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global pandemic that has wreaked havoc on public health, lives, and the global economy. The present COVID-19 outbreak has put pressure on the scientific community to develop medications and vaccinations to combat COVID-19. However, according to highly optimistic forecasts, we could not have a COVID-19 vaccine until September 2020. This is due to the fact that a successful COVID-19 vaccine will necessitate a careful validation of effectiveness and adverse reactivity given that the target vaccine population includes high-risk people over 60, particularly those with severe co-morbid conditions, frontline healthcare professionals, and those involved in essential industrial sectors. For passive immunization, which is being considered for Covid-19, there are several platforms for vaccine development, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. The COVID-19 pandemic, which is arguably the deadliest in the last 100 years after the Spanish flu, necessitates a swift assessment of the various approaches for their ability to incite protective immunity and safety to prevent unintended immune potentiation, which is crucial to the pathogenesis of this virus. Considering the pandemic's high fatality rate and rapid spread, an efficient vaccination is critical for its management. As a result, academia, industry, and government are collaborating in unprecedented ways to create and test a wide range of vaccinations. In this review, we summarize the Covid-19 vaccine development initiatives, recent trends, difficulties, comparison between traditional vaccines development and Covid-19 vaccines development also listed the approved/authorized, phase-3 and pre-clinical trials Covid-19 vaccines in different countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vipul Kumar
- Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Delhi Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research (DIPSAR), Delhi Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research University, New Delhi 110017, India
| | - Sahil Kumar
- Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Delhi Institute of Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research (DIPSAR), Delhi Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research University, New Delhi 110017, India.
| | - Prabodh Chander Sharma
- Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Delhi Pharmaceutical Sciences and Research University, New Delhi 110017, India
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75
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Foutel-Rodier F, Blanquart F, Courau P, Czuppon P, Duchamps JJ, Gamblin J, Kerdoncuff É, Kulathinal R, Régnier L, Vuduc L, Lambert A, Schertzer E. From individual-based epidemic models to McKendrick-von Foerster PDEs: a guide to modeling and inferring COVID-19 dynamics. J Math Biol 2022; 85:43. [PMID: 36169721 PMCID: PMC9517997 DOI: 10.1007/s00285-022-01794-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2021] [Revised: 02/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording each infected individual’s infection age, i.e., the time elapsed since infection, has three benefits. First, regardless of the number of types, the age distribution of the population can be described by means of a first-order, one-dimensional partial differential equation (PDE) known as the McKendrick-von Foerster equation. The frequency of type i is simply obtained by integrating the probability of being in state i at a given age against the age distribution. This representation induces a simple methodology based on the additional assumption of Poisson sampling to infer and forecast the epidemic. We illustrate this technique using French data from the COVID-19 epidemic. Second, our approach generalizes and simplifies standard compartmental models using high-dimensional systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to account for disease complexity. We show that such models can always be rewritten in our framework, thus, providing a low-dimensional yet equivalent representation of these complex models. Third, beyond the simplicity of the approach, we show that our population model naturally appears as a universal scaling limit of a large class of fully stochastic individual-based epidemic models, where the initial condition of the PDE emerges as the limiting age structure of an exponentially growing population starting from a single individual.
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Affiliation(s)
- Félix Foutel-Rodier
- Département de Mathématiques, Université du Québec á Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada.
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France.
| | - François Blanquart
- Infection, Antimicrobials, Modeling, Evolution UMR 1137, Université de Paris, INSERM, Paris, France
| | - Philibert Courau
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
| | - Peter Czuppon
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
- Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity, University of Münster, 48149, Münster, Germany
| | - Jean-Jil Duchamps
- Laboratoire de mathématiques de Besançon UMR 6623, Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté, CNRS, F-25000, Besançon, France
| | - Jasmine Gamblin
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
| | - Élise Kerdoncuff
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
- Institut de Systématique, Biodiversité, Évolution UMR 7205, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, Paris, France
- Department of Molecular and Cell Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Rob Kulathinal
- Department of Biology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA
| | - Léo Régnier
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
- Laboratoire de Physique Théorique de la Matiére Condensée, CNRS/Sorbonne University, Paris, France
| | - Laura Vuduc
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
- Université Paris-Saclay, Centrale Supélec, MICS Lab Gif-sur-Yvette, Berkeley, France
| | - Amaury Lambert
- SMILE Group, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology UMR 7241, Collège de France, CNRS, INSERM U 1050, PSL Research University, Paris, France
- Institut de Biologie de l'ENS, École Normale Supérieure, CNRS UMR 8197 INSERM U 1024, Paris, France
| | - Emmanuel Schertzer
- Faculty of Mathematics, University of Vienna, Oskar-Morgenstern-Platz 1, 1090, Wien, Austria
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de Sousa AR, Moreira WC, da Silva Santana T, Brito Teixeira JR, Meira Araújo IF, Almeida ÉS, de Santana Carvalho ES, Camargo ELS, Tiago da Silva Souza A, da Silva HLL, Ferreira de Holanda A, Batista PCT, de Sousa ÁFL, Mendes IAC, de Oliveira MAF, da Cruz Sequeira CA, Pereira Á. SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil and Psychosocial Repercussions on Men's Health: Health Literacy Is Important. Am J Mens Health 2022; 16:15579883221119091. [PMID: 36164776 PMCID: PMC9513509 DOI: 10.1177/15579883221119091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
This study aimed at analyzing the psychosocial repercussions of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic on the health of men living in Brazil. For this, we carried out a socio-historical and qualitative study, with the participation of 200 men who answered an online questionnaire. The data collected were processed in the NVIVO12® software, structured by the Collective Subject Discourse method, and analyzed from the epidemic disease theoretical framework proposed by Charles Rosenberg. Our results showed that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic brought about repercussions of different dimensions that compromised the health of men living in Brazil. The repercussions evidenced were behavioral changes and emergence of new habits due to the pandemic; uncomfortable family situations; impaired affective and sexual relationships; harms in marital relationships; and insecurity and psychological distress. It is important to implement strategies that maximize men's health literacy, promoting better communication in terms of health, and search for help and suitable information about health/mental health.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Wanderson Carneiro Moreira
- Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil,Wanderson Carneiro Moreira, Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade de São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, São Paulo 05403-000, Brazil.
| | - Thiago da Silva Santana
- Departamento de Saúde, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana (UEFS), Feira de Santana, Brazil
| | | | | | - Éric Santos Almeida
- Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Álvaro Francisco Lopes de Sousa
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | | | | | | | - Álvaro Pereira
- Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, Brazil
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77
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Liu XP, Yang X, Xiong M, Mao X, Jin X, Li Z, Zhou S, Chang H. Development and validation of chest CT-based imaging biomarkers for early stage COVID-19 screening. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1004117. [PMID: 36211676 PMCID: PMC9533142 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1004117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2022] [Accepted: 08/15/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently a global pandemic, and early screening is one of the key factors for COVID-19 control and treatment. Here, we developed and validated chest CT-based imaging biomarkers for COVID-19 patient screening from two independent hospitals with 419 patients. We identified the vasculature-like signals from CT images and found that, compared to healthy and community acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients, COVID-19 patients display a significantly higher abundance of these signals. Furthermore, unsupervised feature learning led to the discovery of clinical-relevant imaging biomarkers from the vasculature-like signals for accurate and sensitive COVID-19 screening that have been double-blindly validated in an independent hospital (sensitivity: 0.941, specificity: 0.920, AUC: 0.971, accuracy 0.931, F1 score: 0.929). Our findings could open a new avenue to assist screening of COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiao-Ping Liu
- Department of Pathology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
- Department of Urology, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xu Yang
- Key Laboratory of Modern Toxicology of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Miao Xiong
- Department of Radiology, Wuhan Third Hospital, Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xuanyu Mao
- Department of Emergency, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Xiaoqing Jin
- Department of Emergency, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Zhiqiang Li
- Department of Neurosurgery, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Shuang Zhou
- Hubei Province Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hubei Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, China
| | - Hang Chang
- Department of Emergency, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
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Hilton J, Riley H, Pellis L, Aziza R, Brand SPC, K. Kombe I, Ojal J, Parisi A, Keeling MJ, Nokes DJ, Manson-Sawko R, House T. A computational framework for modelling infectious disease policy based on age and household structure with applications to the COVID-19 pandemic. PLoS Comput Biol 2022; 18:e1010390. [PMID: 36067212 PMCID: PMC9481179 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010390] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2022] [Revised: 09/16/2022] [Accepted: 07/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while accounting for the highly heterogeneous risk profile of COVID-19. Models accounting either for age structure or the household structure necessary to explicitly model many NPIs are commonly used in infectious disease modelling, but models incorporating both levels of structure present substantial computational and mathematical challenges due to their high dimensionality. Here we present a modelling framework for the spread of an epidemic that includes explicit representation of age structure and household structure. Our model is formulated in terms of tractable systems of ordinary differential equations for which we provide an open-source Python implementation. Such tractability leads to significant benefits for model calibration, exhaustive evaluation of possible parameter values, and interpretability of results. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model through four policy case studies, where we quantify the likely benefits of the following measures which were either considered or implemented in the UK during the current COVID-19 pandemic: control of within- and between-household mixing through NPIs; formation of support bubbles during lockdown periods; out-of-household isolation (OOHI); and temporary relaxation of NPIs during holiday periods. Our ordinary differential equation formulation and associated analysis demonstrate that multiple dimensions of risk stratification and social structure can be incorporated into infectious disease models without sacrificing mathematical tractability. This model and its software implementation expand the range of tools available to infectious disease policy analysts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joe Hilton
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | - Heather Riley
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
| | - Lorenzo Pellis
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
- The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rabia Aziza
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Samuel P. C. Brand
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Ivy K. Kombe
- Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - John Ojal
- Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Andrea Parisi
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - Matt J. Keeling
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
| | - D. James Nokes
- School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Zeeman Institue (SBIDER), University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom
- Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
| | | | - Thomas House
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
- The Alan Turing Institute for Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, London, United Kingdom
- IBM Research Europe, Hartree Centre, Daresbury, United Kingdom
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79
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Risk factors associated with COVID-19 infection and mortality in nursing homes. Aten Primaria 2022; 54:102463. [PMID: 36148713 PMCID: PMC9444496 DOI: 10.1016/j.aprim.2022.102463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Revised: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper was to analyse the association of demographic, clinical and pharmacological risk factors with the presence of SARS-COV-2 virus infection, as well as to know the variables related to mortality from COVID-19 in nursing home (NH) residents. DESIGN Retrospective case-control study. The study variables of those residents who acquired the infection (case) were compared with those of the residents who did not acquire it (control). A subgroup analysis was carried out to study those variables related to mortality. SITE: Nursing homes in the region of Guipúzcoa (Spain). PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS 4 NHs with outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 between March and December 2020 participated in the study. The infectivity and, secondary, mortality was studied, as well as demographic, clinical and pharmacological variables associated with them. Data were collected from the computerised clinical records. MAIN MEASUREMENTS Infection and mortality rate. Risk factors associated with infection and mortality. RESULTS 436 residents were studied (median age 87 years (IQR 11)), 173 acquired SARS-CoV-2 (39.7%). People with dementia and Global Deterioration Scale ≥6 were less likely to be infected by SARS-CoV-2 virus [OR=0.65 (95% CI 0.43-0.97; p<.05)]. Overall case fatality rate was 10.3% (a mortality of 26% among those who acquired the infection). COVID-19 mortality was significantly associated with a Global Deterioration Scale ≥6 (OR=4.9 (95% CI 1.5-16.1)), COPD diagnosis (OR=7.8 (95% CI 1.9-31.3)) and antipsychotic use (OR=3.1 (95% CI 1.0-9.0)). CONCLUSIONS Advanced dementia has been associated with less risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection but higher risk of COVID-19 mortality. COPD and chronic use of antipsychotics have also been associated with mortality. These results highlight the importance of determining the stage of diseases such as dementia as well as maintaining some caution in the use of some drugs such as antipsychotics.
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Li HL, Yang BY, Wang LJ, Liao K, Sun N, Liu YC, Ma RF, Yang XD. A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113297. [PMID: 35436453 PMCID: PMC9011904 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2022] [Revised: 04/08/2022] [Accepted: 04/09/2022] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Meteorological factors have been confirmed to affect the COVID-19 transmission, but current studied conclusions varied greatly. The underlying causes of the variance remain unclear. Here, we proposed two scientific questions: (1) whether meteorological factors have a consistent influence on virus transmission after combining all the data from the studies; (2) whether the impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission can be influenced by season, geospatial scale and latitude. We employed a meta-analysis to address these two questions using results from 2813 published articles. Our results showed that, the influence of meteorological factors on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases varied greatly among existing studies, and no consistent conclusion can be drawn. After grouping outbreak time into cold and warm seasons, we found daily maximum and daily minimum temperatures have significant positive influences on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases in cold season, while significant negative influences in warm season. After dividing the scope of the outbreak into national and urban scales, relative humidity significantly inhibited the COVID-19 transmission at the national scale, but no effect on the urban scale. The negative impact of relative humidity, and the positive impacts of maximum temperatures and wind speed on the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases increased with latitude. The relationship of maximum and minimum temperatures with the newly-confirmed COVID-19 cases were more susceptible to season, while relative humidity's relationship was more affected by latitude and geospatial scale. Our results suggested that relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission can be affected by season, geospatial scale and latitude. A rise in temperature would promote virus transmission in cold seasons. We suggested that the formulation and implementation of epidemic prevention and control should mainly refer to studies at the urban scale. The control measures should be developed according to local meteorological properties for individual city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hong-Li Li
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Bai-Yu Yang
- College of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
| | - Li-Jing Wang
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Ke Liao
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Nan Sun
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Yong-Chao Liu
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Ren-Feng Ma
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China
| | - Xiao-Dong Yang
- College of Geography and Tourism Culture, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Ningbo Universities Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research at Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China; Donghai Academy, Ningbo University, Ningbo, 315211, China.
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Di Biagio K, Baldini M, Dolcini J, Serafini P, Sarti D, Dorillo I, Ranzi A, Settimo G, Bartolacci S, Simeoni TV, Prospero E. Atmospheric particulate matter effects on SARS-CoV-2 infection and spreading dynamics: A spatio-temporal point process model. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113617. [PMID: 35667404 PMCID: PMC9164771 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/24/2022] [Revised: 05/27/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
Particulate matter (PM) may play a role in differential distribution and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2. For public health surveillance, identification of factors affecting the transmission dynamics concerning the endemic (persistent sporadic) and epidemic (rapidly clustered) component of infection can help to implement intervention strategies to reduce the disease burden. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of long-term residential exposure to outdoor PM ≤ 10 μm (PM10) concentrations on SARS-CoV-2 incidence and on its spreading dynamics in Marche region (Central Italy) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic (February to May 2020), using the endemic-epidemic spatio-temporal regression model for individual-level data. Environmental and climatic factors were estimated at 10 km2 grid cells. 10-years average exposure to PM10 was associated with an increased risk of new endemic (Rate Ratio for 10 μg/m3 increase 1.14, 95%CI 1.04-1.24) and epidemic (Rate Ratio 1.15, 95%CI 1.08-1.22) infection. Male gender, older age, living in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities residence and socio-economic deprivation index increased Rate Ratio (RR) in epidemic component. Lockdown increased the risk of becoming positive to SARS-CoV-2 as concerning endemic component while it reduced virus spreading in epidemic one. Increased temperature was associated with a reduction of endemic and epidemic infection. Results showed an increment of RR for exposure to increased levels of PM10 both in endemic and epidemic components. Targeted interventions are necessary to improve air quality in most polluted areas, where deprived populations are more likely to live, to minimize the burden of endemic and epidemic COVID-19 disease and to reduce unequal distribution of health risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katiuscia Di Biagio
- Environmental Epidemiology Unit - Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Marche, Ancona, Italy.
| | - Marco Baldini
- Environmental Epidemiology Unit - Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Jacopo Dolcini
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene - Polytechnic University, Ancona, Italy
| | - Pietro Serafini
- Medical Direction Department, Local Health Authority of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Donatella Sarti
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene - Polytechnic University, Ancona, Italy
| | - Irene Dorillo
- Air Quality Unit, Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Andrea Ranzi
- Centre for Environmental Health and Prevention, Regional Agency for Prevention, Environment and Energy of Emilia-Romagna, Modena, Italy
| | | | - Silvia Bartolacci
- Environmental Epidemiology Unit - Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Thomas Valerio Simeoni
- Environmental Epidemiology Unit - Regional Environmental Protection Agency of Marche, Ancona, Italy
| | - Emilia Prospero
- Department of Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, Section of Hygiene - Polytechnic University, Ancona, Italy
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Zhong M, Lin M. Bibliometric analysis for economy in COVID-19 pandemic. Heliyon 2022; 8:e10757. [PMID: 36185135 PMCID: PMC9509534 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e10757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2022] [Revised: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 09/20/2022] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, various fields have been damaged to varying degrees, especially in the economic field. According to a comprehensive study of bibliometrics and content analysis, this paper aims at summarizing studies related to the development of the economic field during the COVID-19 epidemic. We search in Web of Science Core Collection using the subjects such as “economics”, “economy”, “economic”, “financial”, and then 2274 related documents are collected, which are published from 2020 to 2022. First, this paper uses the mixed qualitative and quantitative analysis methods to analyze the publication status of the countries, institutions, and authors, respectively, and conducts the document co-citation analysis by CiteSpace software. The results showed that the most popular journal is Sustainability, and the most productive research institutions, countries, and authors are primarily located in North American and European countries. Then, it makes an in-depth study of the cooperative network. With the support of Gephi software, this paper employs the social network analysis method to analyze the situation of the country/region cooperation and institutional cooperation. Finally, the content analysis of the related studies is presented to further explore the current challenges. On this basis, this paper analyzes the economic development in the post-epidemic era and draws some conclusions, which provide some references for scholars interested in this field.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meihui Zhong
- College of Computer and Cyber Security, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350117, China
| | - Mingwei Lin
- College of Computer and Cyber Security, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350117, China
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83
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Hess AL, Halalau A, Dokter JJ, Paydawy TS, Karabon P, Bastani A, Baker RE, Balla AK, Galens SA. High-dose intravenous vitamin C decreases rates of mechanical ventilation and cardiac arrest in severe COVID-19. Intern Emerg Med 2022; 17:1759-1768. [PMID: 35349005 PMCID: PMC8961256 DOI: 10.1007/s11739-022-02954-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 02/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Intravenous vitamin C (IV-VitC) has been suggested as a treatment for severe sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome; however, there are limited studies evaluating its use in severe COVID-19. Efficacy and safety of high-dose IV-VitC (HDIVC) in patients with severe COVID-19 were evaluated. This observational cohort was conducted at a single-center, 530 bed, community teaching hospital and took place from March 2020 through July 2020. Inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) was utilized to compare outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 treated with and without HDIVC. Patients were enrolled if they were older than 18 years of age and were hospitalized secondary to severe COVID-19 infection, indicated by an oxygenation index < 300. Primary study outcomes included mortality, mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and cardiac arrest. From a total of 100 patients enrolled, 25 patients were in the HDIVC group and 75 patients in the control group. The average time to death was significantly longer for HDIVC patients (P = 0.0139), with an average of 22.9 days versus 13.7 days for control patients. Patients who received HDIVC also had significantly lower rates of mechanical ventilation (52.93% vs. 73.14%; ORIPTW = 0.27; P = 0.0499) and cardiac arrest (2.46% vs. 9.06%; ORIPTW = 0.23; P = 0.0439). HDIVC may be an effective treatment in decreasing the rates of mechanical ventilation and cardiac arrest in hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. A longer hospital stay and prolonged time to death may suggest that HDIVC may protect against clinical deterioration in severe COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea L Hess
- Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA
| | - Alexandra Halalau
- Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA.
- Internal Medicine Department, Beaumont Hospital, 3711 W. 13 Mile Rd, Royal Oak, MI, 48073, USA.
| | - Jonathan J Dokter
- Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA
| | - Tania S Paydawy
- Department of Pharmaceutical Services, Beaumont Hospital, Troy, MI, USA
| | - Patrick Karabon
- Office of Research, Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA
| | - Aveh Bastani
- Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA
- Emergency Medicine Department, Beaumont Hospital, Troy, MI, USA
| | - Rebecca E Baker
- Department of Pharmaceutical Services, Beaumont Hospital, Troy, MI, USA
| | - Abdalla Kara Balla
- Internal Medicine Department, Beaumont Hospital, 3711 W. 13 Mile Rd, Royal Oak, MI, 48073, USA
| | - Stephen A Galens
- Oakland University William Beaumont School of Medicine, Rochester, MI, USA
- Internal Medicine Department, Pulmonary and Critical Care Division, Beaumont Hospital, Troy, MI, USA
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84
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Bignami-Van Assche S, Ghio D. Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator. JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH 2022; 39:513-525. [PMID: 36065463 PMCID: PMC9430010 DOI: 10.1007/s12546-022-09289-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2021] [Revised: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
Abstract
Background The case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the most important measures for monitoring disease progression and evaluating appropriate policy health measures over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To remove biases arising from the age structure of COVID-19 cases in international comparisons of the CFR, existing studies have relied mainly on direct standardisation. Objective We propose and validate a synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality (SCFR) that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases without relying on the arbitrary choice of a standard population. Results Contrary to what comparisons of the crude CFR suggest, differences in COVID-19 fatality across countries according to the proposed SCFR are not very stark. Importantly, once we adjust for the age structure of COVID-19 cases, the higher case fatality among men emerges as the main driver of international differences in COVID-19 CFR. Conclusions The SCFR is a simple indicator that is useful for monitoring the fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and the efficacy of health policy measures for COVID-19, including vaccination. Contributions (1) A simple synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases; (2) Evidence that sex differences in COVID-19 fatality drive international differences in the overall CFR.
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85
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Alsafar H, Albreiki M, Mousa M, Azman SK, Vurivi H, Waasia F, Ruta D, Alhosani F, Almazrouei S, Abuyadek R, Selvaraj F, Chaves-Coira I, Zvereff V, Abdel-Malek MAY, Alkaabi N, Uddin M, Al Awadhi T, Al Marzouqi N, Al Attar F, Al Shamsi S, Al Shehhi F, Alteneiji H, Mohamed K, Al Muhairi N, AlRand H, Fikri A, Henschel A. Genomic epidemiology and emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the United Arab Emirates. Sci Rep 2022; 12:14669. [PMID: 36038563 PMCID: PMC9421632 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-16967-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Since the declaration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak as a pandemic, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) public health authorities have adopted strict measures to reduce transmission as early as March 2020. As a result of these measures, flight suspension, nationwide RT-PCR and surveillance of viral sequences were extensively implemented. This study aims to characterize the epidemiology, transmission pattern, and emergence of variants of concerns (VOCs) and variants of interests (VOIs) of SARS-CoV-2 in the UAE, followed by the investigation of mutations associated with hospitalized cases. A total of 1274 samples were collected and sequenced from all seven emirates between the period of 25 April 2020 to 15 February 2021. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the UAE in the early pandemic, followed by a local spread of root clades (A, B, B.1 and B.1.1). As the international flight resumed, the frequencies of VOCs surged indicating the January peak of positive cases. We observed that the hospitalized cases were significantly associated with the presence of B.1.1.7 (p < 0.001), B.1.351 (p < 0.001) and A.23.1 (p = 0.009). Deceased cases are more likely to occur in the presence of B.1.351 (p < 0.001) and A.23.1 (p = 0.022). Logistic and ridge regression showed that 51 mutations are significantly associated with hospitalized cases with the highest proportion originated from S and ORF1a genes (31% and 29% respectively). Our study provides an epidemiological insight of the emergence of VOCs and VOIs following the borders reopening and worldwide travels. It provides reassurance that hospitalization is markedly more associated with the presence of VOCs. This study can contribute to understand the global transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Habiba Alsafar
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,Department of Biomedical Engineering, College of Engineering, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,Emirates Bio-Research Center, Ministry of Interior, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohammed Albreiki
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mira Mousa
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproduction Health, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
| | - Syafiq Kamarul Azman
- Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Hema Vurivi
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Fathimathuz Waasia
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Dymitr Ruta
- Emirates ICT Innovation Center (EBTIC), Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Farida Alhosani
- Abu Dhabi Public Health Center, Abu Dhabi Department of Health, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Shereena Almazrouei
- Abu Dhabi Public Health Center, Abu Dhabi Department of Health, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Rowan Abuyadek
- Abu Dhabi Public Health Center, Abu Dhabi Department of Health, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,High Institute of Public Health, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
| | - Francis Selvaraj
- Department Laboratory Medicine Services, Sheikh Khalifa Medical City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Irene Chaves-Coira
- Molecular and Genetics Department, UniLabs, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Val Zvereff
- Department of Molecular Diagnostics, National Reference Laboratory, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,Department of Pathology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Mohamed A Y Abdel-Malek
- Molecular Biology Laboratory, Mediclinic Alnoor Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.,Clinical Pathology Department, Faculty of Medicine, Assiut University, Assiut, Egypt
| | - Nawal Alkaabi
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Disease, Sheikh Khalifa Medical City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Maimunah Uddin
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Disease, Sheikh Khalifa Medical City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
| | - Tayba Al Awadhi
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Fatma Al Attar
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | | | - Hala Alteneiji
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | | | - Noor Al Muhairi
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Hussain AlRand
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Asma Fikri
- Ministry of Health and Prevention, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
| | - Andreas Henschel
- Center for Biotechnology, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, PO BOX, 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. .,Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
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86
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Deng Y, Zhao Y. Mathematical modeling for COVID-19 with focus on intervention strategies and cost-effectiveness analysis. NONLINEAR DYNAMICS 2022; 110:3893-3919. [PMID: 36060281 PMCID: PMC9419650 DOI: 10.1007/s11071-022-07777-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2022] [Accepted: 07/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The realistic assessments of public health intervention strategies are of great significance to effectively combat the COVID-19 epidemic and the formation of intervention policy. In this paper, an extended COVID-19 epidemic model is devised to assess the severity of the pandemic and explore effective control strategies. The model is characterized by ordinary differential equations with seven-state variables, and it incorporates some parameters associated with the interventions (i.e., media publicity, home isolation, vaccination and face-mask wearing) to investigate the impacts of these interventions on the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Some dynamic behaviors of the model, such as forward and backward bifurcation, are analyzed. Specifically, we calibrate the model parameters using actual COVID-19 infected data in Brazil by Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm such that we can study the effects of interventions on a practical case. Through a comprehensive exploration of model design and analysis, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, implementation of optimal control problems and cost-effectiveness analysis, the rationality of our model is verified, and the effective strategies to combat the epidemic in Brazil are revealed. The results show that the asymptomatic infected individuals are the main drivers of COVID-19 transmission, and rapid detection of asymptomatic infections is critical to combat the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. Interestingly, the effect of the vaccination rate associated with pharmaceutical intervention on the basic reproduction number is much lower than that of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Our study also highlights the importance of media publicity. To reduce the infected individuals, the multi-pronged NPIs have considerable positive effects on controlling the outbreak of COVID-19. The infections are significantly decreased by the early implementation of media publicity complemented with home isolation and face-mask wearing strategy. When the cost of implementation is taken into account, the early implementation of media publicity complemented with a face-mask wearing strategy can significantly mitigate the second wave of the epidemic in Brazil. These results provide some management implications for controlling COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Deng
- School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen, 518055 China
| | - Yi Zhao
- School of Science, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen, 518055 China
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87
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Fatality assessment and variant risk monitoring for COVID-19 using three new hospital occupancy related metrics. EBioMedicine 2022; 83:104225. [PMID: 36030648 PMCID: PMC9415498 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/01/2022] [Revised: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 07/29/2022] [Indexed: 01/14/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Though case fatality rate (CFR) is widely used to reflect COVID-19 fatality risk, its use is limited by large temporal and spatial variation. Hospital mortality rate (HMR) is also used to assess the severity of COVID-19, but HMR data is not directly available globally. Alternative metrics are needed for COVID-19 severity and fatality assessment. METHODS We introduce new metrics for COVID-19 fatality risk measurements/monitoring and a new mathematical model to estimate average hospital length of stay for deaths (Ldead) and discharges (Ldis). Multiple data sources were used for our analyses. FINDINGS We propose three, new metrics: hospital occupancy mortality rate (HOMR), ratio of total deaths to hospital occupancy (TDHOR), and ratio of hospital occupancy to cases (HOCR), for dynamic assessment of COVID-19 fatality risk. Estimated Ldead and Ldis for 501,079 COVID-19 hospitalizations in 34 US states between 7 August 2020 and 1 March 2021 were 18·2(95%CI:17·9-18·5) and 14·0(95%CI:13·9-14·0) days, respectively. We found the dramatic changes in COVID-19 CFR observed in 27 countries during early stages of the pandemic were mostly caused by undiagnosed cases. Compared to the first week of November 2021, the week mean HOCRs (mimics hospitalization-to-case ratio) for Omicron variant (58·6% of US new cases as of 25 December 2021) decreased 65·16% in the US as of 16 January 2022. INTERPRETATION The new and reliable measurements described here could be useful for COVID-19 fatality risk and variant-associated risk monitoring. FUNDING No specific funding was associated with the present study.
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88
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Pekar JE, Magee A, Parker E, Moshiri N, Izhikevich K, Havens JL, Gangavarapu K, Malpica Serrano LM, Crits-Christoph A, Matteson NL, Zeller M, Levy JI, Wang JC, Hughes S, Lee J, Park H, Park MS, Ching KZY, Lin RTP, Mat Isa MN, Noor YM, Vasylyeva TI, Garry RF, Holmes EC, Rambaut A, Suchard MA, Andersen KG, Worobey M, Wertheim JO. The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2. Science 2022; 377:960-966. [PMID: 35881005 PMCID: PMC9348752 DOI: 10.1126/science.abp8337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 36.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2022] [Accepted: 07/18/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Understanding the circumstances that lead to pandemics is important for their prevention. We analyzed the genomic diversity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) early in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We show that SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity before February 2020 likely comprised only two distinct viral lineages, denoted "A" and "B." Phylodynamic rooting methods, coupled with epidemic simulations, reveal that these lineages were the result of at least two separate cross-species transmission events into humans. The first zoonotic transmission likely involved lineage B viruses around 18 November 2019 (23 October to 8 December), and the separate introduction of lineage A likely occurred within weeks of this event. These findings indicate that it is unlikely that SARS-CoV-2 circulated widely in humans before November 2019 and define the narrow window between when SARS-CoV-2 first jumped into humans and when the first cases of COVID-19 were reported. As with other coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 emergence likely resulted from multiple zoonotic events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan E. Pekar
- Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Andrew Magee
- Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Edyth Parker
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Niema Moshiri
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Katherine Izhikevich
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
- Department of Mathematics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Jennifer L. Havens
- Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Karthik Gangavarapu
- Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | | | - Alexander Crits-Christoph
- W. Harry Feinstone Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland 21205, USA
| | - Nathaniel L. Matteson
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Mark Zeller
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Joshua I. Levy
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Jade C. Wang
- New York City Public Health Laboratory, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY 11101, USA
| | - Scott Hughes
- New York City Public Health Laboratory, New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York, NY 11101, USA
| | - Jungmin Lee
- Department of Microbiology, Institute for Viral Diseases, Biosafety Center, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Heedo Park
- Department of Microbiology, Institute for Viral Diseases, Biosafety Center, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
- BK21 Graduate Program, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Man-Seong Park
- Department of Microbiology, Institute for Viral Diseases, Biosafety Center, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
- BK21 Graduate Program, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Korea University College of Medicine, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Raymond Tzer Pin Lin
- National Public Health Laboratory, National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | - Mohd Noor Mat Isa
- Malaysia Genome and Vaccine Institute, Jalan Bangi, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Yusuf Muhammad Noor
- Malaysia Genome and Vaccine Institute, Jalan Bangi, 43000 Kajang, Selangor, Malaysia
| | - Tetyana I. Vasylyeva
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Robert F. Garry
- Tulane University, School of Medicine, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, New Orleans, LA 70112, USA
- Zalgen Labs, LCC, Frederick, MD 21703 USA
- Global Virus Network (GVN), Baltimore, MD 21201, USA
| | - Edward C. Holmes
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, School of Life and Environmental Sciences and School of Medical Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
| | - Andrew Rambaut
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3FL, UK
| | - Marc A. Suchard
- Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
- Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Kristian G. Andersen
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
- Scripps Research Translational Institute, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Michael Worobey
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA
| | - Joel O. Wertheim
- Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
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89
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Almatroud AO, Djenina N, Ouannas A, Grassi G, Al-Sawalha MM. A novel discrete-time COVID-19 epidemic model including the compartment of vaccinated individuals. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING : MBE 2022; 19:12387-12404. [PMID: 36654003 DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022578] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Referring tothe study of epidemic mathematical models, this manuscript presents a noveldiscrete-time COVID-19 model that includes the number of vaccinated individuals as an additional state variable in the system equations. The paper shows that the proposed compartment model, described by difference equations, has two fixed points, i.e., a disease-free fixed point and an epidemic fixed point. By considering both the forward difference system and the backward difference system, some stability analyses of the disease-free fixed point are carried out.In particular, for the backward difference system a novel theorem is proved, which gives a condition for the disappearance of the pandemic when an inequality involving some epidemic parameters is satisfied. Finally, simulation results of the conceived discrete model are carried out, along with comparisons regarding the performances of both the forward difference system and the backward difference system.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Othman Almatroud
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ha'il, Ha'il 81451, Saudi Arabia
| | - Noureddine Djenina
- Laboratory of Dynamical Systems and Control, University of Larbi Ben M'hidi, Oum El-Bouaghi, Algeria
| | - Adel Ouannas
- Laboratory of Dynamical Systems and Control, University of Larbi Ben M'hidi, Oum El-Bouaghi, Algeria
| | - Giuseppe Grassi
- Dipartimento Ingegneria Innovazione, Universita Del Salento, Lecce 73100, Italy
| | - M Mossa Al-Sawalha
- Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, University of Ha'il, Ha'il 81451, Saudi Arabia
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90
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Wang X, Wang S, Wang J, Rong L. A Multiscale Model of COVID-19 Dynamics. Bull Math Biol 2022; 84:99. [PMID: 35943625 PMCID: PMC9360740 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-01058-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/21/2021] [Accepted: 07/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/19/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19, caused by the infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been a global pandemic and created unprecedented public health challenges throughout the world. Despite significant progresses in understanding the disease pathogenesis and progression, the epidemiological triad of pathogen, host, and environment remains unclear. In this paper, we develop a multiscale model to study the coupled within-host and between-host dynamics of COVID-19. The model includes multiple transmission routes (both human-to-human and environment-to-human) and connects multiple scales (both the population and individual levels). A detailed analysis on the local and global dynamics of the fast system, slow system and full system shows that rich dynamics, including both forward and backward bifurcations, emerge with the coupling of viral infection and epidemiological models. Model fitting to both virological and epidemiological data facilitates the evaluation of the influence of a few infection characteristics and antiviral treatment on the spread of the disease. Our work underlines the potential role that the environment can play in the transmission of COVID-19. Antiviral treatment of infected individuals can delay but cannot prevent the emergence of disease outbreaks. These results highlight the implementation of comprehensive intervention measures such as social distancing and wearing masks that aim to stop airborne transmission, combined with surface disinfection and hand hygiene that can prevent environmental transmission. The model also provides a multiscale modeling framework to study other infectious diseases when the environment can serve as a reservoir of pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xueying Wang
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, 99163, USA.
| | - Sunpeng Wang
- Zhengxin Yuguang Group Co. Ltd, 1 Haitang New Street, Chongqing, 400000, China
| | - Jin Wang
- Department of Mathematics, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, 37403, USA
| | - Libin Rong
- Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
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91
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Sender R, Bar-On Y, Woo Park S, Noor E, Dushoff J, Milo R. The unmitigated profile of COVID-19 infectiousness. eLife 2022; 11:79134. [PMID: 35913120 PMCID: PMC9391043 DOI: 10.7554/elife.79134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2022] [Accepted: 07/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Quantifying the temporal dynamics of infectiousness of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 is crucial for understanding the spread of COVID-19 and for evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation strategies. Many studies have estimated the infectiousness profile using observed serial intervals. However, statistical and epidemiological biases could lead to underestimation of the duration of infectiousness. We correct for these biases by curating data from the initial outbreak of the pandemic in China (when mitigation was minimal), and find that the infectiousness profile of the original strain is longer than previously thought. Sensitivity analysis shows our results are robust to model structure, assumed growth rate and potential observational biases. Although unmitigated transmission data is lacking for variants of concern (VOCs), previous analyses suggest that the alpha and delta variants have faster within-host kinetics, which we extrapolate to crude estimates of variant-specific unmitigated generation intervals. Knowing the unmitigated infectiousness profile of infected individuals can inform estimates of the effectiveness of isolation and quarantine measures. The framework presented here can help design better quarantine policies in early stages of future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ron Sender
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Yinon Bar-On
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | - Sang Woo Park
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary, Princeton University, Princeton, United States
| | - Elad Noor
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
| | | | - Ron Milo
- Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
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92
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Sun C, Zhao H, Han Y, Wang Y, Sun X. The Role of Inflammasomes in COVID-19: Potential Therapeutic Targets. J Interferon Cytokine Res 2022; 42:406-420. [PMID: 35984324 DOI: 10.1089/jir.2022.0061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused massive morbidity and mortality worldwide. In severe cases, it is mainly associated with acute pneumonia, cytokine storm, and multi-organ dysfunction. Inflammasomes play a primary role in various pathological processes such as infection, injury, and cancer. However, their role in COVID-19-related complications has not been explored. In addition, the role of underlying medical conditions on COVID-19 disease severity remains unclear. Therefore, this review expounds on the mechanisms of inflammasomes following COVID-19 infection and provides recent evidence on the potential double-edged sword effect of inflammasomes during COVID-19 pathogenesis. The assembly and activation of inflammasomes are critical for inducing effective antiviral immune responses and disease resolution. However, uncontrolled activation of inflammasomes causes excessive production of proinflammatory cytokines (cytokine storm), increased risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and death. Therefore, discoveries in the role of the inflammasome in mediating organ injury are key to identifying therapeutic targets and treatment modifications to prevent or reduce COVID-19-related complications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Sun
- Department of Clinical Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Hangyuan Zhao
- Department of Clinical Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Yunze Han
- Department of Clinical Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Yiqing Wang
- Department of Clinical Medicine, School of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
| | - Xiao Sun
- Department of Basic Medical Research Center, Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China.,State Key Laboratory of Esophageal Cancer Prevention and Treatment, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, China
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93
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Gao Z, Wang S, Gu J, Gu C, Liu R. A community-level study on COVID-19 transmission and policy interventions in Wuhan, China. CITIES (LONDON, ENGLAND) 2022; 127:103745. [PMID: 35582597 PMCID: PMC9098919 DOI: 10.1016/j.cities.2022.103745] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2020] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/08/2022] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
The specific factors and response strategies that affect COVID-19 transmission in local communities remain under-explored in the current literature due to a lack of data. Based on primary COVID-19 data collected at the community level in Wuhan, China, our study contributes a community-level investigation on COVID-19 transmission and response strategies by addressing two research questions: 1) What community factors are associated with viral transmission? and 2) What are the key mechanisms behind policy interventions towards controlling viral transmission within local communities? We conducted two sets of analyses to address these two questions-quantitative analyses of the relationship between community factors and viral transmission and qualitative analyses of policy interventions on community transmission. Our findings show that the viral spread in local communities is irrelevant to the built environment of a community and its socioeconomic position but is related to its demographic composition. Specifically, groups under the age of 18 play an important role in viral transmission. Moreover, a series of community shutdown management initiatives (e.g., group buying, delivering supplies, and self-reporting of health conditions) play an important role in curbing viral transmission at the local level that can be applied to other geographic contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhe Gao
- Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430079, China
| | - Siqin Wang
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane 4067, Australia
| | - Jiang Gu
- Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, Hubei Province 430079, China
| | - Chaolin Gu
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Regina Liu
- Department of Biology, Mercer University, Macon, GA, USA
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94
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Sisay G, Mantefardo B, Beyene A. Time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 and risk factors among patients in Southern Ethiopia: a survival analysis. J Int Med Res 2022; 50:3000605221119366. [PMID: 36036178 PMCID: PMC9425909 DOI: 10.1177/03000605221119366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/15/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective This study aimed to assess the time to severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and risk factors among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Southern Ethiopia. Method This two-center retrospective cohort study involved patients with confirmed COVID-19 from 1 October 2020 to 30 September 2021. Kaplan–Meier graphs and log-rank tests were used to determine the pattern of COVID-19 severity among categories of variables. Bivariable and multivariable Cox proportional regression models were used to identify the risk factors of severe COVID-19. Results Four hundred thirteen patients with COVID-19 with a mean age of 41.9 ± 15.3 years were involved in the study. There were 194 severe cases (46.9.1%), including 77 (39.6%) deaths. The median time from symptom onset to severe COVID-19 was 8 days (interquartile range: 7–12 days). The risk factors for severe COVID-19 were age >65 (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 2.65, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 1.02, 3.72), cough (AHR = 1.59, 95%CI: 1.39, 2.84), chest pain (AHR = 1.47, 95%CI: 1.34, 2.66), headache (AHR = 2.04, 95%CI: 1.43, 2.88), comorbidity (AHR = 1.3, 95%CI: 1.01, 2.04), asthma (AHR = 1.6. 95%CI: 1.04, 2.24), and symptom onset to admission more than 5 days (AHR = 0.48, 95%CI: 0.34, 0.68). Conclusion Patients with symptoms and comorbidities should be closely monitored.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gizaw Sisay
- Department of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dilla University, Ethiopia
| | - Bahru Mantefardo
- Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Dilla University, Ethiopia
| | - Aster Beyene
- Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Science, Dilla University, Ethiopia
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95
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Albani VVL, Albani RAS, Massad E, Zubelli JP. Nowcasting and forecasting COVID-19 waves: the recursive and stochastic nature of transmission. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220489. [PMID: 36016918 PMCID: PMC9399708 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Accepted: 08/02/2022] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
We propose a parsimonious, yet effective, susceptible-exposed-infected-removed-type model that incorporates the time change in the transmission and death rates. The model is calibrated by Tikhonov-type regularization from official reports from New York City (NYC), Chicago, the State of São Paulo, in Brazil and British Columbia, in Canada. To forecast, we propose different ways to extend the transmission parameter, considering its estimated values. The forecast accuracy is then evaluated using real data from the above referred places. All the techniques accurately provided forecast scenarios for periods 15 days long. One of the models effectively predicted the magnitude of the four waves of infections in NYC, including the one caused by the Omicron variant for periods of 45 days using out-of-sample data.
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Affiliation(s)
- V. V. L. Albani
- Department of Mathematics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
| | - R. A. S. Albani
- Instituto Politecnico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro State University, Nova Friburgo, Brazil
| | - E. Massad
- School of Medicine, University of São Paulo and LIM01-HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil
- School of Applied Mathematics, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - J. P. Zubelli
- Mathematics Department, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi, UAE
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96
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Safety of an inactivated, whole-virion COVID-19 vaccine (CoronaVac) in people aged 60 years or older in Hong Kong: a modified self-controlled case series. THE LANCET HEALTHY LONGEVITY 2022; 3:e491-e500. [PMID: 35813276 PMCID: PMC9252509 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-7568(22)00125-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023]
Abstract
Background Because evidence on the safety of COVID-19 vaccines in older adults is scarce, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and risk of adverse events after CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) vaccination in adults aged 60 years or older. Methods In this modified self-controlled case series, we enrolled adults aged 60 years or older who had received at least one dose of CoronaVac in Hong Kong between Feb 23, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022. We extracted population-based, electronic health record data from the clinical management system of the Hospital Authority on adverse events of special interest (from Jan 1, 2005, to Feb 23, 2022) and patients' demographic information (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), previous diagnoses (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), medication history (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022), and laboratory tests, including those for SARS-CoV-2 infection (from Jan 1, 2018, to Jan 31, 2022). Details of vaccination status were provided by the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Government and were linked to data from the Hospital Authority with identity card numbers or passport numbers. Our outcomes were the overall incidence of any adverse event of special interest and the incidence rates of 30 adverse events of special interest, as suggested by the WHO Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety, in the inpatient setting within 21 days (2 days for anaphylaxis) of either the first, second, or third CoronaVac dose compared with a baseline period. Individuals who had a history of a particular event between Jan 1, 2005, and Feb 23, 2021, were excluded from the corresponding analysis. We evaluated the risk of an adverse event of special interest using conditional Poisson regression, adjusting for seasonal effects. Findings Of 1 253 497 individuals who received at least one dose of CoronaVac during the study period, 622 317 (49·6%) were aged at least 60 years and were included in the analysis. Our analysis sample received 1 229 423 doses of CoronaVac and had a mean age of 70·40 years (SD 8·10). 293 086 (47·1%) of 622 317 participants were men and 329 231 (52·9%) were women. The incidence of individual adverse events of interest ranged from 0·00 per 100 000 people to 57·49 per 100 000 people (thromboembolism). The first and third doses of CoronaVac were not associated with a significant excess risk of an adverse event of special interest within 21 days (or 2 days for anaphylaxis) of vaccination. After the second dose, the only significantly increased risk was for anaphylaxis (adjusted incidence rate ratio 2·61, 95% CI 1·08–6·31; risk difference per 100 000 people 0·61, 95% CI 0·03–1·81). Interpretation Because older age is associated with poor outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection, the benefits of CoronaVac vaccination in older adults outweigh the risks in regions where COVID-19 is prevalent. Ongoing monitoring of vaccine safety is warranted. Funding The Food and Health Bureau of the Government, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China and AIR@InnoHK, administered by the Innovation and Technology Commission. Translation For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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97
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Diambra L, Alonso AM, Sookoian S, Pirola CJ. Single cell gene expression profiling of nasal ciliated cells reveals distinctive biological processes related to epigenetic mechanisms in patients with severe COVID-19. Comput Biol Med 2022; 148:105895. [PMID: 35926268 PMCID: PMC9338837 DOI: 10.1016/j.compbiomed.2022.105895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/14/2022] [Revised: 06/21/2022] [Accepted: 07/16/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Objective To explore the molecular processes associated with cellular regulatory programs in patients with COVID-19, including gene activation or repression mediated by epigenetic mechanisms. We hypothesized that a comprehensive gene expression profiling of nasopharyngeal epithelial cells might expand our understanding of the pathogenic mechanisms of severe COVID-19. Methods We used single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNAseq) profiling of ciliated cells (n = 12,725) from healthy controls (SARS-CoV-2 negative n = 13) and patients with mild/moderate (n = 13) and severe (n = 14) COVID-19. ScRNAseq data at the patient level were used to perform gene set and pathway enrichment analyses. We prioritized candidate miRNA-target interactions and epigenetic mechanisms. Results We found that mild/moderate COVID-19 compared to healthy controls had upregulation of gene expression signatures associated with mitochondrial function, misfolded proteins, and membrane permeability. In addition, we found that compared to mild/moderate disease, severe COVID-19 had downregulation of epigenetic mechanisms, including DNA and histone H3K4 methylation and chromatin remodelling regulation. Furthermore, we found 11-ranked miRNAs that may explain miRNA-dependent regulation of histone methylation, some of which share seed sequences with SARS-CoV-2 miRNAs. Conclusion Our results may provide novel insights into the epigenetic mechanisms mediating the clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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98
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Zhang W, Liu W, Lin J, Jin J, Zhao K, Zhu L, Wang X, Wang L, Tang R, Zhu Y, Zhou W, You E, Zhang L, Liu X, Wu J, Chen L, Wang W, Zhang Q, Gao R. Highly Prevalent SARS-CoV-2 Antigenemia in COVID-19 Patients. INFECTIOUS DISEASES & IMMUNITY 2022; 2:193-199. [PMID: 37520106 PMCID: PMC9295937 DOI: 10.1097/id9.0000000000000057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
Background Many issues, such as severity assessment and antibody responses, remain to be answered eagerly for evaluation and understanding of COVID-19. Immune lesion is one of key pathogenesis of the disease. It would be helpful to understand the disease if an investigation on antigenemia and association was conducted in the patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods A total of 156 patients admitted to the First People's Hospital of Hefei or Anhui Provincial Hospital on January to February 2020 were involved in this study. SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (NP) antigen, specific IgM/IgG antibodies, and RNA were detected in sequential sera from three COVID-19 patients, and additional 153 COVID-19 patients by means of NP-antigen capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, colloidal gold quick diagnosis, and real-time RT-PCR, respectively. The clinical types of COVID-19 patients were classified into asymptomatic, mild, moderate, severe, and critical, following on the Chinese guideline of COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment. The demographic and clinical data of patients were obtained for comparable analysis. Results NP antigen was detected in 5 of 20 sequential sera collected from three COVID-19 patients with typically clinical symptoms, and 60.13% (92/153) expanded samples collected within 17 days after illness onset. No SARS-CoV-2 RNA segment was detected in these sera. The NP positive proportion reached a peak (84.85%, 28/33) on 6 to 8 days after illness onset. Both NP concentration and positive proportion were increased with the increase of clinical severity of COVID-19. Compared to NP negative patients, NP positive patients had older age [years, medians (interquartile ranges (IQR)), 49 (6) vs. 31 (11)], lower positive proportion of NP specific IgM [27.17% (25/92) vs. 59.02% (36/61)], and IgG [21.74% (20/92) vs. 59.02% (36/61)] antibodies, and longer duration [days, medians (IQR), 24 (10) vs. 21 (13)] from illness to recovery. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 NP antigenemia occurred in COVID-19, and presented highly prevalent at early stage of the disease. The antigenemia was related to clinical severity of the disease, and may be responsible for the delay of detectable SARS-Cov-2 IgM.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenyan Zhang
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Wei Liu
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Jiawang Lin
- BIOHIT Healthcare (Hefei) Co., Hefei, Anhui Province 230000, China
| | - Jing Jin
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Kefu Zhao
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Liwei Zhu
- The First People's Hospital of Hefei, Hefei, Anhui Province 230091, China
| | - Xiuzhen Wang
- Anhui Provincial Hospital, Hefei, Anhui Province 231501, China
| | - Lijie Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Renshu Tang
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Yindi Zhu
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Wei Zhou
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Enqing You
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Lei Zhang
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Xuxiang Liu
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Jinju Wu
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Lili Chen
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Wenjing Wang
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Qiang Zhang
- Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei, Anhui Province 230061, China
| | - Rongbao Gao
- NHC Key Laboratory of Biosafety, NHC Key Laboratory of Medical Virology and Viral Diseases, National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
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99
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Kayano T, Hayashi K, Kobayashi T, Nishiura H. Age-Dependent Risks of COVID-19 Putatively Caused by Variant Alpha in Japan. Front Public Health 2022; 10:837970. [PMID: 35757644 PMCID: PMC9226423 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.837970] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Osaka, the third largest prefecture in Japan, experienced a rapid replacement of preexisting strains of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by variant alpha during March-April 2021. Assessing the burden of variant alpha on health centers and medical institutions is vital to anticipating the surge of patients. The present study aimed to estimate the age-dependent risks of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) putatively caused by variant alpha in Japan, focusing on epidemiological dynamics in Osaka. Methods Descriptive analyses were conducted using data on confirmed, severe and fatal cases of COVID-19 from 16 November 2020 to 22 May 2021. All cases were divided into 6-9 age groups to compare the risks of confirmed diagnosis, severe illness and death from COVID-19 with variant alpha to those caused by preexisting strains. Results Individuals with COVID-19 aged under 30 years were more likely to be infected with variant alpha than those in their 40s. The incidence of severe illness and death among all age groups with COVID-19 due to variant alpha was higher than that due to preexisting strains. Patients older than 40 years experienced an increased risk of severe illness and death if infected with variant alpha. However, the proportion of severe cases was lower in the group aged 80 years and older infected with variant alpha than in those infected with preexisting strains. Conclusion Our analysis suggests that the incidence of infection among young people aged below 30 years old increased relative to ordinary strains. Risks of severe illness and death in patients with variant alpha COVID-19 was higher than in those with preexisting strains in Osaka, Japan. However, a decrease in the risk of severe illness was observed in people aged ≥80 years, which is probably because medical facilities in Osaka were overwhelmed in April and May 2021. Continuous monitoring of COVID-19 cases with new variants is vital to secure sufficient medical resources for all patients who require medical care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Taishi Kayano
- School of Public Health and Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Katsuma Hayashi
- School of Public Health and Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Tetsuro Kobayashi
- School of Public Health and Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Hiroshi Nishiura
- School of Public Health and Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
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Subhani F, Chhotani AA, Waheed S, Zahid RO, Azizi K, Buksh AR. Development of COVID-19 severity assessment score in adults presenting with COVID-19 to the emergency department. BMC Infect Dis 2022; 22:576. [PMID: 35761197 PMCID: PMC9235277 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07535-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2022] [Accepted: 06/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Critically-ill Covid-19 patients require extensive resources which can overburden a healthcare system already under strain due to a pandemic. A good disease severity prediction score can help allocate resources to where they are needed most. OBJECTIVES We developed a Covid-19 Severity Assessment Score (CoSAS) to predict those patients likely to suffer from mortalities within 28 days of hospital admission. We also compared this score to Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) in adults. METHODS CoSAS includes the following 10 components: Age, gender, Clinical Frailty Score, number of comorbidities, Ferritin level, D-dimer level, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive Protein levels, systolic blood pressure and oxygen saturation. Our study was a single center study with data collected via chart review and phone calls. 309 patients were included in the study. RESULTS CoSAS proved to be a good score to predict Covid-19 mortality with an Area under the Curve (AUC) of 0.78. It also proved better than qSOFA (AUC of 0.70). More studies are needed to externally validate CoSAS. CONCLUSION CoSAS is an accurate score to predict Covid-19 mortality in the Pakistani population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faysal Subhani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
| | - Abdul Ahad Chhotani
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
| | - Shahan Waheed
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
| | - Rana Osama Zahid
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
| | - Kiran Azizi
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
| | - Ahmed Raheem Buksh
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, 74800 Pakistan
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