Colloquium paper: extinction and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity

Evolution of paedomorphosis in plethodontid salamanders: ecological correlates and re-evolution of metamorphosis

Life-history modes can profoundly impact the biology of a species, and a classic example is the dichotomy between metamorphic (biphasic) and paedomorphic (permanently aquatic) life-history strategies in salamanders. However, despite centuries of research on this system, several basic questions about the evolution of paedomorphosis in salamanders have not been addressed. Here, we use a nearly comprehensive, time-calibrated phylogeny of spelerpine plethodontids to reconstruct the evolution of paedomorphosis and to test if paedomorphosis is (1) reversible; (2) associated with living in caves; (3) associated with relatively dry climatic conditions on the surface; and (4) correlated with limited range size and geographic dispersal. We find that paedomorphosis arose multiple times in spelerpines. We also find evidence for re-evolution of metamorphosis after several million years of paedomorphosis in a lineage of Eurycea from the Edwards Plateau region of Texas. We also show for the first time using phylogenetic comparative methods that paedomorphosis is highly correlated with cave-dwelling, arid surface environments, and small geographic range sizes, providing insights into both the causes and consequences of this major life history transition.

Potential pitfalls of reconstructing deep time evolutionary history with only extant data, a case study using the canidae (mammalia, carnivora)

Reconstructing evolutionary patterns and their underlying processes is a central goal in biology. Yet many analyses of deep evolutionary histories assume that data from the fossil record is too incomplete to include, and rely solely on databases of extant taxa. Excluding fossil taxa assumes that character state distributions across living taxa are faithful representations of a clade's entire evolutionary history. Many factors can make this assumption problematic. Fossil taxa do not simply lead-up to extant taxa; they represent now-extinct lineages that can substantially impact interpretations of character evolution for extant groups. Here, we analyze body mass data for extant and fossil canids (dogs, foxes, and relatives) for changes in mean and variance through time. AIC-based model selection recovered distinct models for each of eight canid subgroups. We compared model fit of parameter estimates for (1) extant data alone and (2) extant and fossil data, demonstrating that the latter performs significantly better. Moreover, extant-only analyses result in unrealistically low estimates of ancestral mass. Although fossil data are not always available, reconstructions of deep-time organismal evolution in the absence of deep-time data can be highly inaccurate, and we argue that every effort should be made to include fossil data in macroevolutionary studies.

Out of the tropics, but how? Fossils, bridge species, and thermal ranges in the dynamics of the marine latitudinal diversity gradient

Latitudinal diversity gradients are underlain by complex combinations of origination, extinction, and shifts in geographic distribution and therefore are best analyzed by integrating paleontological and neontological data. The fossil record of marine bivalves shows, in three successive late Cenozoic time slices, that most clades (operationally here, genera) tend to originate in the tropics and then expand out of the tropics (OTT) to higher latitudes while retaining their tropical presence. This OTT pattern is robust both to assumptions on the preservation potential of taxa and to taxonomic revisions of extant and fossil species. Range expansion of clades may occur via "bridge species," which violate climate-niche conservatism to bridge the tropical-temperate boundary in most OTT genera. Substantial time lags (∼5 Myr) between the origins of tropical clades and their entry into the temperate zone suggest that OTT events are rare on a per-clade basis. Clades with higher diversification rates within the tropics are the most likely to expand OTT and the most likely to produce multiple bridge species, suggesting that high speciation rates promote the OTT dynamic. Although expansion of thermal tolerances is key to the OTT dynamic, most latitudinally widespread species instead achieve their broad ranges by tracking widespread, spatially-uniform temperatures within the tropics (yielding, via the nonlinear relation between temperature and latitude, a pattern opposite to Rapoport's rule). This decoupling of range size and temperature tolerance may also explain the differing roles of species and clade ranges in buffering species from background and mass extinctions.

Bivalve network reveals latitudinal selectivity gradient at the end-Cretaceous mass extinction

Biogeographic patterns of survival help constrain the causal factors responsible for mass extinction. To test whether biogeography influenced end-Cretaceous (K-Pg) extinction patterns, we used a network approach to delimit biogeographic units (BUs) above the species level in a global Maastrichtian database of 329 bivalve genera. Geographic range is thought to buffer taxa from extinction, but the number of BUs a taxon occurred in superseded geographic range as an extinction predictor. Geographically, we found a latitudinal selectivity gradient for geographic range in the K-Pg, such that higher latitude BUs had lower extinction than expected given the geographic ranges of the genera, implying that (i) high latitude BUs were more resistant to extinction, (ii) the intensity of the K-Pg kill mechanism declined with distance from the tropics, or (iii) both. Our results highlight the importance of macroecological structure in constraining causal mechanisms of extinction and estimating extinction risk of taxa.

Disturbances, organisms and ecosystems: a global change perspective

The present text exposes a theory of the role of disturbances in the assemblage and evolution of species within ecosystems, based principally, but not exclusively, on terrestrial ecosystems. Two groups of organisms, doted of contrasted strategies when faced with environmental disturbances, are presented, based on the classical r-K dichotomy, but enriched with more modern concepts from community and evolutionary ecology. Both groups participate in the assembly of known animal, plant, and microbial communities, but with different requirements about environmental fluctuations. The so-called "civilized" organisms are doted with efficient anticipatory mechanisms, allowing them to optimize from an energetic point of view their performances in a predictable environment (stable or fluctuating cyclically at the scale of life expectancy), and they developed advanced specializations in the course of evolutionary time. On the opposite side, the so-called "barbarians" are weakly efficient in a stable environment because they waste energy for foraging, growth, and reproduction, but they are well adapted to unpredictably changing conditions, in particular during major ecological crises. Both groups of organisms succeed or alternate each other in the course of spontaneous or geared successional processes, as well as in the course of evolution. The balance of "barbarians" against "civilized" strategies within communities is predicted to shift in favor of the first type under present-day anthropic pressure, exemplified among others by climate warming, land use change, pollution, and biological invasions.

Mass extinction of lizards and snakes at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary

The Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary is marked by a major mass extinction, yet this event is thought to have had little effect on the diversity of lizards and snakes (Squamata). A revision of fossil squamates from the Maastrichtian and Paleocene of North America shows that lizards and snakes suffered a devastating mass extinction coinciding with the Chicxulub asteroid impact. Species-level extinction was 83%, and the K-Pg event resulted in the elimination of many lizard groups and a dramatic decrease in morphological disparity. Survival was associated with small body size and perhaps large geographic range. The recovery was prolonged; diversity did not approach Cretaceous levels until 10 My after the extinction, and resulted in a dramatic change in faunal composition. The squamate fossil record shows that the end-Cretaceous mass extinction was far more severe than previously believed, and underscores the role played by mass extinctions in driving diversification.

Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.

Biodiversity tracks temperature over time

The geographic distribution of life on Earth supports a general pattern of increase in biodiversity with increasing temperature. However, some previous analyses of the 540-million-year Phanerozoic fossil record found a contrary relationship, with paleodiversity declining when the planet warms. These contradictory findings are hard to reconcile theoretically. We analyze marine invertebrate biodiversity patterns for the Phanerozoic Eon while controlling for sampling effort. This control appears to reverse the temporal association between temperature and biodiversity, such that taxonomic richness increases, not decreases, with temperature. Increasing temperatures also predict extinction and origination rates, alongside other abiotic and biotic predictor variables. These results undermine previous reports of a negative biodiversity-temperature relationship through time, which we attribute to paleontological sampling biases. Our findings suggest a convergence of global scale macroevolutionary and macroecological patterns for the biodiversity-temperature relationship.

Multi-variate models are essential for understanding vertebrate diversification in deep time

Statistical models are helping palaeontologists to elucidate the history of biodiversity. Sampling standardization has been extensively applied to remedy the effects of uneven sampling in large datasets of fossil invertebrates. However, many vertebrate datasets are smaller, and the issue of uneven sampling has commonly been ignored, or approached using pairwise comparisons with a numerical proxy for sampling effort. Although most authors find a strong correlation between palaeodiversity and sampling proxies, weak correlation is recorded in some datasets. This has led several authors to conclude that uneven sampling does not influence our view of vertebrate macroevolution. We demonstrate that multi-variate regression models incorporating a model of underlying biological diversification, as well as a sampling proxy, fit observed sauropodomorph dinosaur palaeodiversity best. This bivariate model is a better fit than separate univariate models, and illustrates that observed palaeodiversity is a composite pattern, representing a biological signal overprinted by variation in sampling effort. Multi-variate models and other approaches that consider sampling as an essential component of palaeodiversity are central to gaining a more complete understanding of deep time vertebrate diversification.

Graptoloid diversity and disparity became decoupled during the Ordovician mass extinction

The morphological study of extinct taxa allows for analysis of a diverse set of macroevolutionary hypotheses, including testing for change in the magnitude of morphological divergence, extinction selectivity on form, and the ecological context of radiations. Late Ordovician graptoloids experienced a phylogenetic bottleneck at the Hirnantian mass extinction (∼445 Ma), when a major clade of graptoloids was driven to extinction while another clade simultaneously radiated. In this study, we developed a dataset of 49 ecologically relevant characters for 183 species with which we tested two main hypotheses: (i) could the biased survival of one graptoloid clade over another have resulted from morphological selectivity alone and (ii) are the temporal patterns of morphological disparity and innovation during the recovery consistent with an interpretation as an adaptive radiation resulting from ecological release? We find that a general model of morphological selectivity has a low probability of producing the observed pattern of taxonomic selectivity. Contrary to predictions from theory on adaptive radiations and ecological speciation, changes in disparity and species richness are uncoupled. We also find that the early recovery is unexpectedly characterized by relatively low morphological disparity and innovation, despite also being an interval of elevated speciation. Because it is necessary to invoke factors other than ecology to explain the graptoloid recovery, more complex models may be needed to explain recovery dynamics after mass extinctions.

Leaf evolution in Southern Hemisphere conifers tracks the angiosperm ecological radiation

The angiosperm radiation has been linked to sharp declines in gymnosperm diversity and the virtual elimination of conifers from the tropics. The conifer family Podocarpaceae stands as an exception with highest species diversity in wet equatorial forests. It has been hypothesized that efficient light harvesting by the highly flattened leaves of several podocarp genera facilitates persistence with canopy-forming angiosperms, and the angiosperm ecological radiation may have preferentially favoured the diversification of these lineages. To test these ideas, we develop a molecular phylogeny for Podocarpaceae using Bayesian-relaxed clock methods incorporating fossil time constraints. We find several independent origins of flattened foliage types, and that these lineages have diversified predominantly through the Cenozoic and therefore among canopy-forming angiosperms. The onset of sustained foliage flattening podocarp diversification is coincident with a declining diversification rate of scale/needle-leaved lineages and also with ecological and climatic transformations linked to angiosperm foliar evolution. We demonstrate that climatic range evolution is contingent on the underlying state for leaf morphology. Taken together, our findings imply that as angiosperms came to dominate most terrestrial ecosystems, competitive interactions at the foliar level have profoundly shaped podocarp geography and as a consequence, rates of lineage diversification.

How diversification rates and diversity limits combine to create large-scale species-area relationships

Species-area relationships (SARs) have mostly been treated from an ecological perspective, focusing on immigration, local extinction and resource-based limits to species coexistence. However, a full understanding across large regions is impossible without also considering speciation and global extinction. Rates of both speciation and extinction are known to be strongly affected by area and thus should contribute to spatial patterns of diversity. Here, we explore how variation in diversification rates and ecologically mediated diversity limits among regions of different sizes can result in the formation of SARs. We explain how this area-related variation in diversification can be caused by either the direct effects of area or the effects of factors that are highly correlated with area, such as habitat diversity and population size. We also review environmental, clade-specific and historical factors that affect diversification and diversity limits but are not highly correlated with region area, and thus are likely to cause scatter in observed SARs. We present new analyses using data on the distributions, ages and traits of mammalian species to illustrate these mechanisms; in doing so we provide an integrated perspective on the evolutionary processes shaping SARs.

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves

Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction--abundance, body size, and geographic range size--to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts.

Biodiversity is not (and never has been) a bed of roses!

Over the last decades, the critical study of fossil diversity has led to significant advances in the knowledge of global macroevolutionary patterns of biodiversity. The deep-time history of life on Earth results from background originations and extinctions defining a steady-state, nonstationary equilibrium occasionally perturbed by biotic crises and "explosive" diversifications. More recently, a macroecological approach to the large-scale distribution of extant biodiversity offered new, stimulating perspectives on old theoretical questions and current practical problems in conservation biology. However, time and space are practically distinct, but functionally related dimensions of ecological systems. This calls for a spatially-integrated study of biodiversity dynamics at an evolutionary timescale. Indeed, the biosphere is a complex adaptive system whose study cannot be arbitrarily reduced to any single spatial- and/or temporal-scale level of resolution without a loss of content. From such an integrated perspective, a simple fact emerges: in a physically heterogeneous and ever-changing world, spatiotemporal variations in biodiversity are the rule-not the exception.

Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a--probably untenable--model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification 'rules' and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.

Has the Earth's sixth mass extinction already arrived?

Palaeontologists characterize mass extinctions as times when the Earth loses more than three-quarters of its species in a geologically short interval, as has happened only five times in the past 540 million years or so. Biologists now suggest that a sixth mass extinction may be under way, given the known species losses over the past few centuries and millennia. Here we review how differences between fossil and modern data and the addition of recently available palaeontological information influence our understanding of the current extinction crisis. Our results confirm that current extinction rates are higher than would be expected from the fossil record, highlighting the need for effective conservation measures.

Repeated loss of coloniality and symbiosis in scleractinian corals

The combination of coloniality and symbiosis in Scleractinia is thought to confer competitive advantage over other benthic invertebrates, and it is likely the key factor for the dominance of corals in tropical reefs. However, the extant Scleractinia are evenly split between zooxanthellate and azooxanthellate species. Most azooxanthellate species are solitary and nearly absent from reefs, but have much wider geographic and bathymetric distributions than reef corals. Molecular phylogenetic analyses have repeatedly recovered clades formed by colonial/zooxanthellate and solitary/azooxanthellate taxa, suggesting that coloniality and symbiosis were repeatedly acquired and/or lost throughout the history of the Scleractinia. Using Bayesian ancestral state reconstruction, we found that symbiosis was lost at least three times and coloniality lost at least six times, and at least two instances in which both characters were lost. All of the azooxanthellate lineages originated from ancestors that were reconstructed as symbiotic, corroborating the onshore-offshore diversification trend recorded in marine taxa. Symbiotic sister taxa of two of these descendant lineages are extant in Caribbean reefs but disappeared from the Mediterranean before the end of the Miocene, whereas extant azooxanthellate lineages have trans-Atlantic distributions. Thus, the phyletic link between reef and nonreef communities may have played an important role in the dynamics of extinction and recovery that marks the evolutionary history of scleractinians, and some reef lineages may have escaped local extinction by diversifying into offshore environments. However, this macroevolutionary mechanism offers no hope of mitigating the effects of climate change on coral reefs in the next century.

Phylogenetic conservatism of extinctions in marine bivalves

Evolutionary histories of species and lineages can influence their vulnerabilities to extinction, but the importance of this effect remains poorly explored for extinctions in the geologic past. When analyzed using a standardized taxonomy within a phylogenetic framework, extinction rates of marine bivalves estimated from the fossil record for the last approximately 200 million years show conservatism at multiple levels of evolutionary divergence, both within individual families and among related families. The strength of such phylogenetic clustering varies over time and is influenced by earlier extinction history, especially by the demise of volatile taxa in the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. Analyses of the evolutionary roles of ancient extinctions and predictive models of vulnerability of taxa to future natural and anthropogenic stressors should take phylogenetic relationships and extinction history into account.

Environmental change drove macroevolution in cupuladriid bryozoans

Most macroevolutionary events are correlated with changes in the environment, but more rigorous evidence of cause and effect has been elusive. We compiled a 10 Myr record of origination and extinction, changes in mode of reproduction, morphologies and abundances of cupuladriid bryozoan species, spanning the time when primary productivity collapsed in the southwestern Caribbean as the Isthmus of Panama closed. The dominant mode of reproduction shifted dramatically from clonal to aclonal, due in part to a pulse of origination followed by extinction that was strongly selective in favour of aclonal species. Modern-day studies predict reduced clonality in increasingly oligotrophic conditions, thereby providing a mechanistic explanation supporting the hypothesis that the collapse in primary productivity was the cause of turnover. However, whereas originations were synchronous with changing environments, extinctions lagged 1-2 Myr. Extinct species failed to become more robust and reduce their rate of cloning when the new environmental conditions arose, and subsequently saw progressive reductions in abundance towards their delayed demise. Environmental change is therefore established as the root cause of macroevolutionary turnover despite the lag between origination and extinction.

Ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction

Despite the attention focused on mass extinction events in the fossil record, patterns of extinction in the dominant group of marine vertebrates-fishes-remain largely unexplored. Here, I demonstrate ecomorphological selectivity among marine teleost fishes during the end-Cretaceous extinction, based on a genus-level dataset that accounts for lineages predicted on the basis of phylogeny but not yet sampled in the fossil record. Two ecologically relevant anatomical features are considered: body size and jaw-closing lever ratio. Extinction intensity is higher for taxa with large body sizes and jaws consistent with speed (rather than force) transmission; resampling tests indicate that victims represent a nonrandom subset of taxa present in the final stage of the Cretaceous. Logistic regressions of the raw data reveal that this nonrandom distribution stems primarily from the larger body sizes of victims relative to survivors. Jaw mechanics are also a significant factor for most dataset partitions but are always less important than body size. When data are corrected for phylogenetic nonindependence, jaw mechanics show a significant correlation with extinction risk, but body size does not. Many modern large-bodied, predatory taxa currently suffering from overexploitation, such billfishes and tunas, first occur in the Paleocene, when they appear to have filled the functional space vacated by some extinction victims.