Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics

River networks as ecological corridors: A coherent ecohydrological perspective

This paper draws together several lines of argument to suggest that an ecohydrological framework, i.e. laboratory, field and theoretical approaches focused on hydrologic controls on biota, has contributed substantially to our understanding of the function of river networks as ecological corridors. Such function proves relevant to: the spatial ecology of species; population dynamics and biological invasions; the spread of waterborne disease. As examples, we describe metacommunity predictions of fish diversity patterns in the Mississippi-Missouri basin, geomorphic controls imposed by the fluvial landscape on elevational gradients of species' richness, the zebra mussel invasion of the same Mississippi-Missouri river system, and the spread of proliferative kidney disease in salmonid fish. We conclude that spatial descriptions of ecological processes in the fluvial landscape, constrained by their specific hydrologic and ecological dynamics and by the ecosystem matrix for interactions, i.e. the directional dispersal embedded in fluvial and host/pathogen mobility networks, have already produced a remarkably broad range of significant results. Notable scientific and practical perspectives are thus open, in the authors' view, to future developments in ecohydrologic research.

Cholera - management and prevention

Cholera is an acute secretory diarrhoeal infection caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. It is likely to have originated in the Indian sub-continent; however, it spread to cause six worldwide pandemics between 1817-1923. The ongoing seventh worldwide pandemic of cholera began in 1961. The intensity, duration and severity of cholera epidemics have been increasing, signaling the need for more effective control and prevention measures. The response to the cholera pandemics of the 19th century led to the development of safe and effective sanitation and water systems which have effectively removed the risk of cholera in many settings. However, such systems are not in place to protect billions of people worldwide. Although some progress has been made in expanding access to water in recent years, achieving optimal infrastructure will, in the most optimistic scenario, take decades. Climate change, extreme weather events and rapid urbanisation suggests that alternatives to the current paradigm of providing large centralised water and sanitation systems should be considered, including smaller decentralised systems. The aim of this review paper is to provide an overview of current knowledge regarding management of cholera with a focus on prevention measures including vaccination and water and sanitation interventions.

Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

Occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in water reservoirs of Burkina Faso

Africa is currently an important region in which cholera epidemics occur. Little is known about the presence of Vibrio cholerae in freshwater bodies in Africa. There are ca. 1700 lakes and reservoirs in Burkina Faso, most of which have been built within recent decades to secure water resources. The purpose of this study was to investigate the presence of V. cholerae in the water of reservoirs, using the most-probable-number polymerase chain reaction. Results showed that V. cholerae could be detected in water samples collected from 14 of 39 sampled reservoirs. The concentrations varied from 0 MPN/l to more than 1100 MPN/l. Fifty strains of V. cholerae isolated on CHROMagar™ vibrio were identified as V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139, none of which carried the ctxA gene. A significant positive correlation was found between the presence of V. cholerae in the reservoirs and both alkaline pH and phytoplankton biomass. V. cholerae was present in significantly higher numbers in reservoirs of urban areas than in rural areas. Since V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139 has been shown to be a causative agent of endemic diarrheal outbreaks, their presence in Burkina Faso reservoirs suggests they may play a role in gastroenteritis in that country.

An ecological and digital epidemiology analysis on the role of human behavior on the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Martinique

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic infections is of critical importance for a deeper understanding of pathogen transmission, and for the design of more efficient public health strategies. However, very few studies in this domain have focused on emerging infections, generating a gap of knowledge that hampers epidemiological response planning. Here, we analyze the case of a Chikungunya outbreak that occurred in Martinique in 2014. Using time series estimates from a network of sentinel practitioners covering the entire island, we first analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics and show that the largest city has served as the epicenter of this epidemic. We further show that the epidemic spread from there through two different propagation waves moving northwards and southwards, probably by individuals moving along the road network. We then develop a mathematical model to explore the drivers of the temporal dynamics of this mosquito-borne virus. Finally, we show that human behavior, inferred by a textual analysis of messages published on the social network Twitter, is required to explain the epidemiological dynamics over time. Overall, our results suggest that human behavior has been a key component of the outbreak propagation, and we argue that such results can lead to more efficient public health strategies specifically targeting the propagation process.

Modeling Key Drivers of Cholera Transmission Dynamics Provides New Perspectives for Parasitology

Hydroclimatological and anthropogenic factors are key drivers of waterborne disease transmission. Information on human settlements and host mobility on waterways along which pathogens and hosts disperse, and relevant hydroclimatological processes, can be acquired remotely and included in spatially explicit mathematical models of disease transmission. In the case of epidemic cholera, such models allowed the description of complex disease patterns and provided insight into the course of ongoing epidemics. The inclusion of spatial information in models of disease transmission can aid in emergency management and the assessment of alternative interventions. Here, we review the study of drivers of transmission via spatially explicit approaches and argue that, because many parasitic waterborne diseases share the same drivers as cholera, similar principles may apply.

Hydrological Regime and Water Shortage as Drivers of the Seasonal Incidence of Diarrheal Diseases in a Tropical Montane Environment

BACKGROUND

The global burden of diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In montane areas of South-East Asia such as northern Laos, recent changes in land use have induced increased runoff, soil erosion and in-stream suspended sediment loads, and potential pathogen dissemination. To our knowledge, few studies have related diarrhea incidences to catchment scale hydrological factors such as river discharge, and loads of suspended sediment and of Fecal Indicator Bacteria (FIB) such as Escherichia coli, together with sociological factors such as hygiene practices. We hypothesized that climate factors combined with human behavior control diarrhea incidence, either because higher rainfall, leading to higher stream discharges, suspended sediment loads and FIB counts, are associated with higher numbers of reported diarrhea cases during the rainy season, or because water shortage leads to the use of less safe water sources during the dry season. Using E. coli as a FIB, the objectives of this study were thus (1) to characterize the epidemiological dynamics of diarrhea in Northern Laos, and (2) to identify which hydro-meteorological and sociological risk factors were associated with diarrhea epidemics.

METHODS

Considering two unconnected river catchments of 22 and 7,448 km2, respectively, we conducted a retrospective time series analysis of meteorological variables (rainfall, air temperature), hydrological variables (discharge, suspended sediments, FIB counts, water temperature), and the number of diarrheal disease cases reported at 6 health centers located in the 5 southern districts of the Luang Prabang Province, Lao PDR. We also examined the socio-demographic factors potentially affecting vulnerability to the effect of the climate factors, such as drinking water sources, hygiene habits, and recreational water exposure.

RESULTS

Using thus a mixed methods approach, we found E. coli to be present all year long (100-1,000 Most Probable Number or MPN 100 mL-1) indicating that fecal contamination is ubiquitous and constant. We found that populations switch their water supply from wells to surface water during drought periods, the latter of which appear to be at higher risk of bacterial contamination than municipal water fountains. We thus found that water shortage in the Luang Prabang area triggers diarrhea peaks during the dry and hot season and that rainfall and aquifer refill ends the epidemic during the wet season. The temporal trends of reported daily diarrhea cases were generally bimodal with hospital admissions peaking in February-March and later in May-July. Annual incidence rates were higher in more densely populated areas and mostly concerned the 0-4 age group and male patients.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that anthropogenic drivers, such as hygiene practices, were at least as important as environmental drivers in determining the seasonal pattern of a diarrhea epidemic. For diarrheal disease risk monitoring, discharge or groundwater level can be considered as relevant proxies. These variables should be monitored in the framework of an early warning system provided that a tradeoff is found between the size of the monitored catchment and the frequency of the measurement.

Human fecal and pathogen exposure pathways in rural Indian villages and the effect of increased latrine coverage

Efforts to eradicate open defecation and improve sanitation access are unlikely to achieve health benefits unless interventions reduce microbial exposures. This study assessed human fecal contamination and pathogen exposures in rural India, and the effect of increased sanitation coverage on contamination and exposure rates. In a cross-sectional study of 60 villages of a cluster-randomized controlled sanitation trial in Odisha, India, human and domestic animal fecal contamination was measured in community tubewells and ponds (n = 301) and via exposure pathways in homes (n = 354), using Bacteroidales microbial source tracking fecal markers validated in India. Community water sources were further tested for diarrheal pathogens (rotavirus, adenovirus and Vibrio cholerae by quantitative PCR; pathogenic Escherichia coli by multiplex PCR; Cryptosporidium and Giardia by immunomagnetic separation and direct fluorescent antibody microscopy). Exposure pathways in intervention and control villages were compared and relationships with child diarrhea examined. Human fecal markers were rarely detected in tubewells (2.4%, 95%CI: 0.3-4.5%) and ponds (5.6%, 95%CI: 0.8-10.3%), compared to homes (35.4%, 95%CI: 30.4-40.4%). In tubewells, V. cholerae was the most frequently detected pathogen (19.8%, 95%CI: 14.4-25.2%), followed by Giardia (14.8%, 95%CI: 10.0-19.7%). In ponds, Giardia was most often detected (74.5%, 95%CI: 65.7-83.3%), followed by pathogenic E. coli (48.1%, 95%CI: 34.8-61.5%) and rotavirus (44.4%, 95%CI: 34.2-54.7%). At village-level, prevalence of fecal pathogen detection in community drinking water sources was associated with elevated prevalence of child diarrhea within 6 weeks of testing (RR 2.13, 95%CI: 1.25-3.63) while within homes, higher levels of human and animal fecal marker detection were associated with increased risks of subsequent child diarrhea (P = 0.044 and 0.013, respectively). There was no evidence that the intervention, which increased functional latrine coverage and use by 27 percentage points, reduced human fecal contamination in any tested pathway, nor the prevalence of pathogens in water sources. In conclusion, the study demonstrates that (1) improved sanitation alone may be insufficient and further interventions needed in the domestic domain to reduce widespread human and animal fecal contamination observed in homes, (2) pathogens detected in tubewells indicate these sources are microbiologically unsafe for drinking and were associated with child diarrhea, (3) domestic use of ponds heavily contaminated with multiple pathogens presents an under-recognized health risk, and (4) a 27 percentage point increase in improved sanitation access at village-level did not reduce detectable human fecal and pathogen contamination in this setting.

Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities

After several decades of intensive research, steady improvements in understanding and modeling the climate system have led to the development of the first generation of operational health early warning systems in the era of climate services. These schemes are based on collaborations across scientific disciplines, bringing together real-time climate and health data collection, state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions, epidemiological impact models based on historical data, and an understanding of end user and stakeholder needs. In this review, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of this complex, multidisciplinary collaboration, with a focus on the factors limiting seasonal forecasting as a source of predictability for climate impact models.

Interactions of Vibrio spp. with Zooplankton

Members of the genus Vibrio are known to interact with phyto- and zooplankton in aquatic environments. These interactions have been proven to protect the bacterium from various environmental stresses, serve as a nutrient source, facilitate exchange of DNA, and to serve as vectors of disease transmission. This review highlights the impact of Vibrio-zooplankton interactions at the ecosystem scale and the importance of studies focusing on a wide range of Vibrio-zooplankton interactions. The current knowledge on chitin utilization (i.e., chemotaxis, attachment, and degradation) and the role of these factors in attachment to nonchitinous zooplankton is also presented.

Strategies to Prevent Cholera Introduction during International Personnel Deployments: A Computational Modeling Analysis Based on the 2010 Haiti Outbreak

BACKGROUND

Introduction of Vibrio cholerae to Haiti during the deployment of United Nations (UN) peacekeepers in 2010 resulted in one of the largest cholera epidemics of the modern era. Following the outbreak, a UN-commissioned independent panel recommended three pre-deployment intervention strategies to minimize the risk of cholera introduction in future peacekeeping operations: screening for V. cholerae carriage, administering prophylactic antimicrobial chemotherapies, or immunizing with oral cholera vaccines. However, uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of these approaches has forestalled their implementation by the UN. We assessed how the interventions would have impacted the likelihood of the Haiti cholera epidemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a stochastic model for cholera importation and transmission, fitted to reported cases during the first weeks of the 2010 outbreak in Haiti. Using this model, we estimated that diagnostic screening reduces the probability of cases occurring by 82% (95% credible interval: 75%, 85%); however, false-positive test outcomes may hamper this approach. Antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis at time of departure and oral cholera vaccination reduce the probability of cases by 50% (41%, 57%) and by up to 61% (58%, 63%), respectively. Chemoprophylaxis beginning 1 wk before departure confers a 91% (78%, 96%) reduction independently, and up to a 98% reduction (94%, 99%) if coupled with vaccination. These results are not sensitive to assumptions about the background cholera incidence rate in the endemic troop-sending country. Further research is needed to (1) validate the sensitivity and specificity of rapid test approaches for detecting asymptomatic carriage, (2) compare prophylactic efficacy across antimicrobial regimens, and (3) quantify the impact of oral cholera vaccine on transmission from asymptomatic carriers.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening, chemoprophylaxis, and vaccination are all effective strategies to prevent cholera introduction during large-scale personnel deployments such as that precipitating the 2010 Haiti outbreak. Antimicrobial chemoprophylaxis was estimated to provide the greatest protection at the lowest cost among the approaches recently evaluated by the UN.

From cholera to corals: Viruses as drivers of virulence in a major coral bacterial pathogen

Disease is an increasing threat to reef-building corals. One of the few identified pathogens of coral disease is the bacterium Vibrio coralliilyticus. In Vibrio cholerae, infection by a bacterial virus (bacteriophage) results in the conversion of non-pathogenic strains to pathogenic strains and this can lead to cholera pandemics. Pathogenicity islands encoded in the V. cholerae genome play an important role in pathogenesis. Here we analyse five whole genome sequences of V. coralliilyticus to examine whether virulence is similarly driven by horizontally acquired elements. We demonstrate that bacteriophage genomes encoding toxin genes with homology to those found in pathogenic V. cholerae are integrated in V. coralliilyticus genomes. Virulence factors located on chromosomal pathogenicity islands also exist in some strains of V. coralliilyticus. The presence of these genetic signatures indicates virulence in V. coralliilyticus is driven by prophages and other horizontally acquired elements. Screening for pathogens of coral disease should target conserved regions in these elements.

Tracking Cholera through Surveillance of Oral Rehydration Solution Sales at Pharmacies: Insights from Urban Bangladesh

Background

In Bangladesh, pharmacy-purchased oral rehydration solution (ORS) is often used to treat diarrhea, including cholera. Over-the-counter sales have been used for epidemiologic surveillance in the past, but rarely, if ever, in low-income countries. With few early indicators for cholera outbreaks in endemic areas, diarrhea-related product sales may serve as a useful surveillance tool.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We tracked daily ORS sales at 50 pharmacies and drug-sellers in an urban Bangladesh community of 129,000 for 6-months while simultaneously conducting surveillance for diarrhea hospitalizations among residents. We developed a mobile phone based system to track the sales of ORS and deployed it in parallel with a paper-based system. Our objectives were to determine if the mobile phone system was practical and acceptable to pharmacists and drug sellers, whether data were reported accurately compared to a paper-based system, and whether ORS sales were associated with future incidence of cholera hospitalizations within the community. We recorded 47,215 customers purchasing ORS, and 315 hospitalized diarrhea cases, 22% of which had culture-confirmed cholera. ORS sales and diarrhea incidence were independently associated with the mean daily temperature; therefore both unadjusted and adjusted models were explored. Through unadjusted cross-correlation statistics and generalized linear models, we found increases in ORS sales were significantly associated with increases in hospitalized diarrhea cases up to 9-days later and hospitalized cholera cases up to one day later. After adjusting for mean daily temperature, ORS was significantly associated with hospitalized diarrhea two days later and hospitalized cholera one day later.

Conclusions/Significance

Pharmacy sales data may serve as a feasible and useful surveillance tool. Given the relatively short lagged correlation between ORS sales and diarrhea, rapid and accurate sales data are key. More work is needed in creating actionable algorithms that make use of this data and in understanding the generalizability of our findings to other settings.

In Bangladesh, people often purchase oral rehydration solution (ORS) at their neighborhood pharmacy to treat diarrhea, including cholera. Over-the-counter sales have been used for epidemiologic surveillance, but rarely in low-income countries. With few early indicators for cholera outbreaks in endemic areas, diarrhea-related product sales may be a useful surveillance tool. We tracked daily ORS sales at pharmacies and drug-sellers in an urban Bangladesh community with both a mobile phone and paper-based system while conducting surveillance for diarrhea hospitalizations among residents. We found that increases in ORS sales were significantly associated increases in hospitalized diarrhea cases up to two days later and hospitalized cholera cases up to one day later. Our findings suggest that surveillance systems based on over-the-counter product sales may be a feasible and useful way to detect outbreaks in low-income settings and that mobile technology may make it even easier to collect implement.

Environmental factor analysis of cholera in China using remote sensing and geographical information systems

Cholera is one of a number of infectious diseases that appears to be influenced by climate, geography and other natural environments. This study analysed the environmental factors of the spatial distribution of cholera in China. It shows that temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline have significant impact on the distribution of cholera. It also reveals the oceanic environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, which is a coastal province of China, using both remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS). The analysis has validated the correlation between indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local number of cholera cases based on 8-year monthly data from 2001 to 2008. The results show the number of cholera cases has been strongly affected by the variables of SST, SSH and OCC. Utilizing this information, a cholera prediction model has been established based on the oceanic and climatic environmental factors. The model indicates that RS and GIS have great potential for designing an early warning system for cholera.

Seasonal Prevalence of Enteropathogenic Vibrio and Their Phages in the Riverine Estuarine Ecosystem of South Bengal

Diarrheal disease remains an unsolved problem in developing countries. The emergence of new etiological agents (non-cholera vibrios) is a major cause of concern for health planners. We attempted to unveil the seasonal dynamics of entero-pathogenic Vibrios in Gangetic riverine-estuarine ecosystem. 120 surface water samples were collected for a period of one year from 3 sampling sites on the Hooghly river. Five enteropathogenic Vibrio species, V. cholerae (35%), V. parahaemolyticus (22.5%), V. mimicus (19.1%), V. alginolyticus (15.8%) and V. vulnificus (11.6%), were present in the water samples. The vibriophages, V. vulnificus ɸ (17.5%), V. alginolyticus ɸ (17.5%), V. parahaemolyticus ɸ (10%), V. cholerae non-O1/O139 ɸ (26.6%) and V. mimicus ɸ (9.1%), were also detected in these samples. The highest number of Vibrios were noted in the monsoon (20-34°C), and to a lesser extent, in the summer (24-36°C) seasons. Samples positive for phages for any of the identified Vibrio species were mostly devoid of that particular bacterial organism and vice versa. The detection of toxin genes and resistance to β-lactam antibiotics in some environmental enteropathogenic Vibrio species in the aquatic niches is a significant outcome. This finding is instrumental in the south Bengal diarrhoeal incidence.

Rapid proliferation of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae during freshwater flash floods in French Mediterranean coastal lagoons

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus, and Vibrio cholerae of the non-O1/non-O139 serotype are present in coastal lagoons of southern France. In these Mediterranean regions, the rivers have long low-flow periods followed by short-duration or flash floods during and after heavy intense rainstorms, particularly at the end of the summer and in autumn. These floods bring large volumes of freshwater into the lagoons, reducing their salinity. Water temperatures recorded during sampling (15 to 24°C) were favorable for the presence and multiplication of vibrios. In autumn 2011, before heavy rainfalls and flash floods, salinities ranged from 31.4 to 36.1‰ and concentrations of V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, and V. cholerae varied from 0 to 1.5 × 10(3) most probable number (MPN)/liter, 0.7 to 2.1 × 10(3) MPN/liter, and 0 to 93 MPN/liter, respectively. Following heavy rainstorms that generated severe flash flooding and heavy discharge of freshwater, salinity decreased, reaching 2.2 to 16.4‰ within 15 days, depending on the site, with a concomitant increase in Vibrio concentration to ca. 10(4) MPN/liter. The highest concentrations were reached with salinities between 10 and 20‰ for V. parahaemolyticus, 10 and 15‰ for V. vulnificus, and 5 and 12‰ for V. cholerae. Thus, an abrupt decrease in salinity caused by heavy rainfall and major flooding favored growth of human-pathogenic Vibrio spp. and their proliferation in the Languedocian lagoons. Based on these results, it is recommended that temperature and salinity monitoring be done to predict the presence of these Vibrio spp. in shellfish-harvesting areas of the lagoons.

Influence of Environmental Factors on Vibrio spp. in Coastal Ecosystems

Various studies have examined the relationships between vibrios and the environmental conditions surrounding them. However, very few reviews have compiled these studies into cohesive points. This may be due to the fact that these studies examine different environmental parameters, use different sampling, detection, and enumeration methodologies, and occur in diverse geographic locations. The current article is one approach to compile these studies into a cohesive work that assesses the importance of environmental determinants on the abundance of vibrios in coastal ecosystems.

Effects of Global Warming on Vibrio Ecology

Vibrio -related infections are increasing worldwide both in humans and aquatic animals. Rise in global sea surface temperature (SST), which is approximately 1°C higher now than 140 years ago and is one of the primary physical impacts of global warming, has been linked to such increases. In this chapter, major known effects of increasing SST on the biology and ecology of vibrios are described. They include the effects on bacterial growth rate, both in the field and in laboratory, culturability, expression of pathogenicity traits, and interactions with aquatic organisms and abiotic surfaces. Special emphasis is given to the effect of ocean warming on Vibrio interactions with zooplankters, which represent one of the most important aquatic reservoirs for these bacteria. The reported findings highlight the biocomplexity of the interactions between vibrios and their natural environment in a climate change scenario, posing the need for interdisciplinary studies to properly understand the connection between ocean warming and persistence and spread of vibrios in sea waters and the epidemiology of the diseases they cause.

Analytical studies assessing the association between extreme precipitation or temperature and drinking water-related waterborne infections: a review

Determining the role of weather in waterborne infections is a priority public health research issue as climate change is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme precipitation and temperature events. To document the current knowledge on this topic, we performed a literature review of analytical research studies that have combined epidemiological and meteorological data in order to analyze associations between extreme precipitation or temperature and waterborne disease.A search of the databases Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS and Web of Science was conducted, using search terms related to waterborne infections and precipitation or temperature. Results were limited to studies published in English between January 2001 and December 2013.Twenty-four articles were included in this review, predominantly from Asia and North-America. Four articles used waterborne outbreaks as study units, while the remaining articles used number of cases of waterborne infections. Results presented in the different articles were heterogeneous. Although most of the studies identified a positive association between increased precipitation or temperature and infection, there were several in which this association was not evidenced. A number of articles also identified an association between decreased precipitation and infections. This highlights the complex relationship between precipitation or temperature driven transmission and waterborne disease. We encourage researchers to conduct studies examining potential effect modifiers, such as the specific type of microorganism, geographical region, season, type of water supply, water source or water treatment, in order to assess how they modulate the relationship between heavy rain events or temperature and waterborne disease. Addressing these gaps is of primary importance in order to identify the areas where action is needed to minimize negative impact of climate change on health in the future.

Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus isolated from biofouling on commercial vessels and harbor structures

Ballast water is a significant vector of microbial dissemination; however, biofouling on commercial vessel hulls has been poorly studied with regard to pathogenic bacteria transport. Biofouling on three commercial vessels and seven port structures in Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico, was examined by qPCR to identify and quantify Vibrio parahaemolyticus, a worldwide recognized food-borne human pathogen. Pathogenic variants (trh+, tdh+) of V. parahaemolyticus were detected in biofouling homogenates samples from several docks in Ensenada and on the hulls of ships with Japanese and South Korean homeports, but not in reference sampling stations. A total of 26 tdh+ V. parahaemolyticus colonies and 1 ORF8+/O3:K6 strain were also isolated from enriched biofouling homogenate samples confirming the qPCR analysis. Our results suggest that biofouling is an important reservoir of pathogenic vibrios. Thus, ship biofouling might be an overlooked vector with regard to the dissemination of pathogens, primarily pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus.

Identifying environmental risk factors of cholera in a coastal area with geospatial technologies

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers.

Household Transmission of Vibrio cholerae in Bangladesh

Background

Vibrio cholerae infections cluster in households. This study's objective was to quantify the relative contribution of direct, within-household exposure (for example, via contamination of household food, water, or surfaces) to endemic cholera transmission. Quantifying the relative contribution of direct exposure is important for planning effective prevention and control measures.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Symptom histories and multiple blood and fecal specimens were prospectively collected from household members of hospital-ascertained cholera cases in Bangladesh from 2001–2006. We estimated the probabilities of cholera transmission through 1) direct exposure within the household and 2) contact with community-based sources of infection. The natural history of cholera infection and covariate effects on transmission were considered. Significant direct transmission (p-value<0.0001) occurred among 1414 members of 364 households. Fecal shedding of O1 El Tor Ogawa was associated with a 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 0.9%–22.8%) risk of infection among household contacts through direct exposure during an 11-day infectious period (mean length). The estimated 11-day risk of O1 El Tor Ogawa infection through exposure to community-based sources was 2.5% (0.8%–8.0%). The corresponding estimated risks for O1 El Tor Inaba and O139 infection were 3.7% (0.7%–16.6%) and 8.2% (2.1%–27.1%) through direct exposure, and 3.4% (1.7%–6.7%) and 2.0% (0.5%–7.3%) through community-based exposure. Children under 5 years-old were at elevated risk of infection. Limitations of the study may have led to an underestimation of the true risk of cholera infection. For instance, available covariate data may have incompletely characterized levels of pre-existing immunity to cholera infection. Transmission via direct exposure occurring outside of the household was not considered.

Conclusions

Direct exposure contributes substantially to endemic transmission of symptomatic cholera in an urban setting. We provide the first estimate of the transmissibility of endemic cholera within prospectively-followed members of households. The role of direct transmission must be considered when planning cholera control activities.

Since John Snow's ground-breaking investigations of the devastating outbreaks in 19^th-century London, cholera has been considered the quintessential waterborne human infection, transmitting via fecal contamination of environmental water sources. Recently, renewed interest has been paid to the potential importance of transmission through direct exposure within close-contact groups, such as, via fecal contamination of surfaces, food, or drinking water within households. Significant direct transmission of cholera within close contact groups would represent a new target for innovative prevention and control strategies. We estimated the probability of transmission 1) via direct contact within 364 urban households located in an endemic cholera setting (Dhaka, Bangladesh) and 2) via exposure to sources located outside of these households. In this setting we estimated a 4 to 8 percent probability of becoming infected with cholera via direct exposure within households in this setting versus a 2 to 3 percent likelihood of infection due to exposure to external sources over a comparable time period. Our results demonstrate that direct (within-household) transmission is a significant component of endemic cholera transmission, suggesting that biomedical and behavioral-modification interventions specifically targeting this mode of transmission could substantially reduce the cholera burden in this type of setting.

A systematic review of methodology: time series regression analysis for environmental factors and infectious diseases

BACKGROUND

Time series analysis is suitable for investigations of relatively direct and short-term effects of exposures on outcomes. In environmental epidemiology studies, this method has been one of the standard approaches to assess impacts of environmental factors on acute non-infectious diseases (e.g. cardiovascular deaths), with conventionally generalized linear or additive models (GLM and GAM). However, the same analysis practices are often observed with infectious diseases despite of the substantial differences from non-infectious diseases that may result in analytical challenges.

METHODS

Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines, systematic review was conducted to elucidate important issues in assessing the associations between environmental factors and infectious diseases using time series analysis with GLM and GAM. Published studies on the associations between weather factors and malaria, cholera, dengue, and influenza were targeted.

FINDINGS

Our review raised issues regarding the estimation of susceptible population and exposure lag times, the adequacy of seasonal adjustments, the presence of strong autocorrelations, and the lack of a smaller observation time unit of outcomes (i.e. daily data). These concerns may be attributable to features specific to infectious diseases, such as transmission among individuals and complicated causal mechanisms.

CONCLUSION

The consequence of not taking adequate measures to address these issues is distortion of the appropriate risk quantifications of exposures factors. Future studies should pay careful attention to details and examine alternative models or methods that improve studies using time series regression analysis for environmental determinants of infectious diseases.

Temperature, hospital admissions and emergency room visits in Lhasa, Tibet: a time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Tibet of China, with an average altitude of over 4000 m, has experienced noticeable changes in its climate over the last 50 years. The association between temperature and morbidity (most commonly represented by hospital admissions) has been documented mainly in developed countries. Little is known about patterns in China; nor have the health effects of temperature variations been closely studied in highland areas, worldwide.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the temperature-morbidity association in Lhasa, the capital city of Tibet, using sex- and age-specific hospitalizations, excluding those due to external causes.

METHODS

A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on morbidity (including total emergency room visits, total and cause-specific hospital admissions, sex- and age-specific non-external admissions).

RESULTS

High temperatures are associated with increases in morbidity, to a greater extent than low temperatures. Lag effects of high and low temperatures were cause-specific. The relative risks (RR) of high temperature for total emergency room visits and non-external hospitalizations were 1.162 (95% CI: 1.002-1.349) and 1.161 (95% CI: 1.007-1.339) respectively, for lag 0-14 days. The strongest cumulative effect of heat for lag 0-27 days was on admissions for infectious diseases (RR: 2.067, 95% CI: 1.026-4.027). Acute heat effects at lag 0 were related with increases of renal (RR: 1.478, 95% CI: 1.005-2.174) and respiratory diseases (RR: 1.119, 95% CI: 1.010-1.240), whereas immediate cold effects increased admission for digestive diseases (RR: 1.132, 95% CI: 1.002-1.282). Those ≥65 years of age and males were more vulnerable to high temperatures.

CONCLUSION

We provide a first look at the temperature-morbidity relationship in Tibet. Exposure to both hot and cold temperatures resulted in increased admissions to hospital, but the immediate causes varied. We suggest that initiatives should be taken to reduce the adverse effects of temperature extremes in Tibet.

Uncertainty in model predictions of Vibrio vulnificus response to climate variability and change: a Chesapeake Bay case study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4°C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

Disease prediction models and operational readiness

The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness Level definitions.

Influence of hydrologic and anthropogenic factors on the abundance variability of enteropathogens in the Ganges estuary, a cholera endemic region

This study deals with the influence of water physico-chemical properties, tides, rainfall and fecal pollution on the abundance of enteropathogens in a main distributary of the Ganges, in the endemic cholera belt of West Bengal. Between January and June 2011, water and sediments were sampled from two sites of the Hooghly River by Kolkata and Diamond Harbour. Counts of cultivable Vibrio (CVC, from~10(2) to~10(5)CFU/L) and total bacteria (TBC, from~10(5) to~10(9)CFU/L) increased with water temperature (17°C to 37°C). A combination of variations in tidal height, salinity and turbidity had a distinct influence on CVC, TBC and coliform counts. At Diamond Harbour, a salinity increase from 0.6 to 7.9 was accompanied by a 1000-fold amplification of initial CVC~10(2)CFU/L, whereas higher prevalence of coliforms in Kolkata was related to greater disposal of untreated sewage into the river. Turbidity-dependent variation of CVC was noteworthy, particularly at Diamond Harbour, where CVC in intertidal surface sediments showed an analogous trend as in surface waters, suggesting bentho-pelagic coupling of Vibrio dynamics. Besides the influence of salinity variation with tidal cycles, sediment re-suspension from tidal flats can play a role on Vibrio abundance in aquatic ecosystems.

Associations and dynamics of Vibrionaceae in the environment, from the genus to the population level

The Vibrionaceae, which encompasses several potential pathogens, including V. cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, and V. vulnificus, the deadliest seafood-borne pathogen, are a well-studied family of marine bacteria that thrive in diverse habitats. To elucidate the environmental conditions under which vibrios proliferate, numerous studies have examined correlations with bulk environmental variables—e.g., temperature, salinity, nitrogen, and phosphate—and association with potential host organisms. However, how meaningful these environmental associations are remains unclear because data are fragmented across studies with variable sampling and analysis methods. Here, we synthesize findings about Vibrio correlations and physical associations using a framework of increasingly fine environmental and taxonomic scales, to better understand their dynamics in the wild. We first conduct a meta-analysis to determine trends with respect to bulk water environmental variables, and find that while temperature and salinity are generally strongly predictive correlates, other parameters are inconsistent and overall patterns depend on taxonomic resolution. Based on the hypothesis that dynamics may better correlate with more narrowly defined niches, we review evidence for specific association with plants, algae, zooplankton, and animals. We find that Vibrio are attached to many organisms, though evidence for enrichment compared to the water column is often lacking. Additionally, contrary to the notion that they flourish predominantly while attached, Vibrio can have, at least temporarily, a free-living lifestyle and even engage in massive blooms. Fine-scale sampling from the water column has enabled identification of such lifestyle preferences for ecologically cohesive populations, and future efforts will benefit from similar analysis at fine genetic and environmental sampling scales to describe the conditions, habitats, and resources shaping Vibrio dynamics.

Influence of climate factors on Vibrio cholerae dynamics in the Pearl River estuary, South China

Current research has seldom focused on the quantitative relationships between Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae) and climate factors owing to the complexities and high cost of field observation in the aquatic environment. This study has focused on the relationships between V. cholerae and climate factors based on linear regression method and data partition method. Data gathered from 2008 to 2009 in the Pearl River estuary, South China, were adopted. Positive rate of V. cholerae was correlated closely with monthly climate factors of water temperature and air temperature, respectively in 2009. Quarterly data analysis from 2008 to 2009 showed that there existed seasonal characteristic for V. cholerae. Positive rate of V. cholerae was correlated positively with quarterly climate factors of land surface temperature, pH, water temperature, air temperature and rainfall, respectively and negatively with quarterly air pressure. Partition data analysis in 2009 showed that there existed geography region characteristic for V. cholerae. V. cholerae dynamics was closely correlated to climate factors in the downstream area. However, it was more greatly affected by human geography factors in the urban area. Positive annual rate of V. cholerae was higher in the downstream area than in the urban area both in 2008 and 2009. At last, a cellular automaton model was used to simulate V. cholerae diffusion downstream, and the distribution of V. cholerae obtained from this model was similar to that obtained from the field observations.

Cholera outbreaks in India

Cholera is a global health problem as several thousands of cases and deaths occur each year. The unique epidemiologic attribute of the disease is its propensity to occur as outbreaks that may flare-up into epidemics, if not controlled. The causative bacterial pathogen Vibrio cholerae prevails in the environment and infects humans whenever there is a breakdown in the public health component. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to this disease due its vast coastlines with areas of poor sanitation, unsafe drinking water, and overcrowding. Recently, it was shown that climatic conditions also play a major role in the persistence and spread of cholera. Constant change in the biotypes and serotypes of V. cholerae are also important aspects that changes virulence and survival of the pathogen. Such continuous changes increase the infection ability of the pathogen affecting the susceptible population including the children. The short-term carrier status of V. cholerae has been studied well at community level and this facet significantly contributes to the recurrence of cholera. Several molecular tools recognized altering clonality of V. cholerae in relation with the advent of a serogroup or serotype. Rapid identification systems were formulated for the timely detection of the pathogen so as to identify and control the outbreak and institute proper treatment of the patients. The antimicrobials used in the past are no longer useful in the treatment of cholera as V. cholerae has acquired several mechanisms for multiple antimicrobial resistance. This upsurge in antimicrobial resistance directly influences the management of the disease. This chapter provides an overview of cholera prevalence in India, possible sources of infection, and molecular epidemiology along with antimicrobial resistance of V. cholerae.

Cholera in coastal Africa: a systematic review of its heterogeneous environmental determinants

According to the "cholera paradigm," epidemiology of this prototypical waterborne disease is considered to be driven directly by climate-induced variations in coastal aquatic reservoirs of Vibrio cholerae. This systematic review on environmental determinants of cholera in coastal Africa shows that instead coastal epidemics constitute a minor part of the continental cholera burden. Most of coastal cholera foci are located near estuaries, lagoons, mangrove forests, and on islands. Yet outbreaks often originate in coastal cities, where cholera is more likely to be imported from distant areas. Cholera outbreaks also may intensify in densely populated slum quarters before spreading to adjacent regions. Frequent seasonality of cholera incidence appears driven by the rainfall-induced contamination of unprotected water sources through latrine overflow and sewage, as well as by the periodicity of human activities like fishing or traveling. Lulls in transmission periods of several years are repeatedly recorded even in high-risk coastal areas. To date, environmental studies have failed to demonstrate a perennial aquatic reservoir of toxigenic V. cholerae around the continent. Finally, applicability of the cholera paradigm therefore appears questionable in Africa, although available data remain limited. Thorough surveys with microbiological analyses of water samples and prospective genotyping of environmental and clinical strains of V. cholerae are needed to understand determinants of cholera in coastal Africa and better target prevention and control measures.

The burden of cholera in Uganda

INTRODUCTION

In 2010, the World Health Organization released a new cholera vaccine position paper, which recommended the use of cholera vaccines in high-risk endemic areas. However, there is a paucity of data on the burden of cholera in endemic countries. This article reviewed available cholera surveillance data from Uganda and assessed the sufficiency of these data to inform country-specific strategies for cholera vaccination.

METHODS

The Uganda Ministry of Health conducts cholera surveillance to guide cholera outbreak control activities. This includes reporting the number of cases based on a standardized clinical definition plus systematic laboratory testing of stool samples from suspected cases at the outset and conclusion of outbreaks. This retrospective study analyzes available data by district and by age to estimate incidence rates. Since surveillance activities focus on more severe hospitalized cases and deaths, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to estimate the number of non-severe cases and unrecognized deaths that may not have been captured.

RESULTS

Cholera affected all ages, but the geographic distribution of the disease was very heterogeneous in Uganda. We estimated that an average of about 11,000 cholera cases occurred in Uganda each year, which led to approximately 61-182 deaths. The majority of these cases (81%) occurred in a relatively small number of districts comprising just 24% of Uganda's total population. These districts included rural areas bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, and Kenya as well as the slums of Kampala city. When outbreaks occurred, the average duration was about 15 weeks with a range of 4-44 weeks.

DISCUSSION

There is a clear subdivision between high-risk and low-risk districts in Uganda. Vaccination efforts should be focused on the high-risk population. However, enhanced or sentinel surveillance activities should be undertaken to better quantify the endemic disease burden and high-risk populations prior to introducing the vaccine.

Population and genetic study of Vibrio cholerae from the amazon environment confirms that the WASA-1 prophage is the main marker of the epidemic strain that circulated in the region

Vibrio cholerae is a natural inhabitant of many aquatic environments in the world. Biotypes harboring similar virulence-related gene clusters are the causative agents of epidemic cholera, but the majority of strains are harmless to humans. Since 1971, environmental surveillance for potentially pathogenic V. cholerae has resulted in the isolation of many strains from the Brazilian Amazon aquatic ecosystem. Most of these strains are from the non-O1/non-O139 serogroups (NAGs), but toxigenic O1 strains were isolated during the Latin America cholera epidemic in the region (1991-1996). A collection of environmental V. cholerae strains from the Brazilian Amazon belonging to pre-epidemic (1977-1990), epidemic (1991-1996), and post-epidemic (1996-2007) periods in the region, was analyzed. The presence of genes related to virulence within the species and the genetic relationship among the strains were studied. These variables and the information available concerning the strains were used to build a Bayesian multivariate dependency model to distinguish the importance of each variable in determining the others. Some genes related to the epidemic strains were found in environmental NAGs during and after the epidemic. Significant diversity among the virulence-related gene content was observed among O1 strains isolated from the environment during the epidemic period, but not from clinical isolates, which were analyzed as controls. Despite this diversity, these strains exhibited similar PFGE profiles. PFGE profiles were significant while separating potentially epidemic clones from indigenous strains. No significant correlation with isolation source, place or period was observed. The presence of the WASA-1 prophage significantly correlated with serogroups, PFGE profiles, and the presence of virulence-related genes. This study provides a broad characterization of the environmental V. cholerae population from the Amazon, and also highlights the importance of identifying precisely defined genetic markers such as the WASA-1 prophage for the surveillance of cholera.

Cholera: pathophysiology and emerging therapeutic targets

Cholera is a diarrheal disease that remains an important global health problem with several hundreds of thousands of reported cases each year. This disease is caused by intestinal infection with Vibrio cholerae, which is a highly motile gram-negative bacterium with a single-sheathed flagellum. In the course of cholera pathogenesis, V. cholerae expresses a transcriptional activator ToxT, which subsequently transactivates expressions of two crucial virulence factors: toxin-coregulated pilus and cholera toxin (CT). These factors are responsible for intestinal colonization of V. cholerae and induction of fluid secretion, respectively. In intestinal epithelial cells, CT binds to GM1 ganglioside receptors on the apical membrane and undergoes retrograde vesicular trafficking to endoplasmic reticulum, where it exploits endoplasmic reticulum-associated protein degradation systems to release a catalytic A1 subunit of CT (CT A1) into cytoplasm. CT A1, in turn, catalyzes ADP ribosylation of α subunits of stimulatory G proteins, leading to a persistent activation of adenylate cyclase and an elevation of intracellular cAMP. Increased intracellular cAMP in human intestinal epithelial cells accounts for pathogenesis of profuse diarrhea and severe fluid loss in cholera. This review provides an overview of the pathophysiology of cholera diarrhea and discusses emerging drug targets for cholera, which include V. cholerae virulence factors, V. cholerae motility, CT binding to GM1 receptor, CT internalization and intoxication, as well as cAMP metabolism and transport proteins involved in cAMP-activated Cl(-) secretion. Future directions and perspectives of research on drug discovery and development for cholera are discussed.

Examining rainfall and cholera dynamics in Haiti using statistical and dynamic modeling approaches

Haiti has been in the midst of a cholera epidemic since October 2010. Rainfall is thought to be associated with cholera here, but this relationship has only begun to be quantitatively examined. In this paper, we quantitatively examine the link between rainfall and cholera in Haiti for several different settings (including urban, rural, and displaced person camps) and spatial scales, using a combination of statistical and dynamic models. Statistical analysis of the lagged relationship between rainfall and cholera incidence was conducted using case crossover analysis and distributed lag nonlinear models. Dynamic models consisted of compartmental differential equation models including direct (fast) and indirect (delayed) disease transmission, where indirect transmission was forced by empirical rainfall data. Data sources include cholera case and hospitalization time series from the Haitian Ministry of Public Health, the United Nations Water, Sanitation and Health Cluster, International Organization for Migration, and Hôpital Albert Schweitzer. Rainfall data was obtained from rain gauges from the U.S. Geological Survey and Haiti Regeneration Initiative, and remote sensing rainfall data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. A strong relationship between rainfall and cholera was found for all spatial scales and locations examined. Increased rainfall was significantly correlated with increased cholera incidence 4-7 days later. Forcing the dynamic models with rainfall data resulted in good fits to the cholera case data, and rainfall-based predictions from the dynamic models closely matched observed cholera cases. These models provide a tool for planning and managing the epidemic as it continues.

Detection of Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae with respect to seasonal fluctuations in temperature and plankton abundance

Over a 1-year period, bi-monthly estuarine surface water and plankton samples (63-200 and > 200 μm fractions) were assayed by polymerase chain reaction for the prevalence of total Vibrio parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus and V. cholerae and select genes associated with clinical strains found in each species. Neither temperature nor plankton abundance was a significant correlate of total V. parahaemolyticus; however, the prevalence of genes commonly associated with clinical strains (trh, tdh, ORF8) increased with temperature and copepod abundance (P < 0.05). The prevalence of total V. vulnificus and the siderophore-related viuB gene also increased with temperature and copepod and decapod abundance (P < 0.001). Temperature and copepod abundance also covaried with the prevalence of V. cholerae (P < 0.05), but there was no significant relationship with ctxA or other genes commonly found in clinical strains. Results show that genes commonly associated with clinical Vibrio strains were more frequently detected in association with chitinous plankton. We conclude that V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, V. cholerae and subpopulations that harbour genes common to clinical strains respond distinctly to seasonal changes in temperature as well as shifts in the taxonomic composition of discrete plankton fractions.

Population vulnerability to biannual cholera outbreaks and associated macro-scale drivers in the Bengal Delta

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions.

Distribution of vibrio species in shellfish and water samples collected from the atlantic coastline of south-east Nigeria

Crayfish, lobster, and sea-water samples collected from five fishing islands on the Atlantic coast-Bight of Biafra (Bonny)-belonging to Ibaka Local Government Area of Akwa-Ibom State of Nigeria were bacteriologically evaluated on thiosulphate citrate bile-salt sucrose (TCBS) agar for Vibrio load and pathotypes. Mean log10 Vibrio counts of 7.64+/-2.78 cfu/g (in crayfish), 5.07+/-3.21 cfu/g (in lobster), and 3.06+/-2.27 cfu/mL (in sea-water) were obtained in rainy season (June-July) while counts in the dry season (November-December) were 6.25+/-1.93 cfu/g, 5.99+/-1.54 cfu/g, and 3.84+/-1.78 cfu/mL respectively. The physicochemical measurements (temperature, pH, and total dissolved solutes) of the sea-water did not vary significantly in the two seasons across all five islands. Vibrio species isolated were Vibrio cholerae (both O1 and non-O1 serotypes), V parahaemolyticus, V vulnificus, V mimicus, and V fluvialis. Both Ogawa and Inaba subtypes of V cholerae O1 serotype were found. In addition, the Hikojima subtype, which had not been previously reported in the region, was isolated in two samples. The results show that these Vibrio species are endemic in the area.

Loss of competition in the outside host environment generates outbreaks of environmental opportunist pathogens

Environmentally transmitted pathogens face ecological interactions (e.g., competition, predation, parasitism) in the outside-host environment and host immune system during infection. Despite the ubiquitousness of environmental opportunist pathogens, traditional epidemiology focuses on obligatory pathogens incapable of environmental growth. Here we ask how competitive interactions in the outside-host environment affect the dynamics of an opportunist pathogen. We present a model coupling the classical SI and Lotka–Volterra competition models. In this model we compare a linear infectivity response and a sigmoidal infectivity response. An important assumption is that pathogen virulence is traded off with competitive ability in the environment. Removing this trade-off easily results in host extinction. The sigmoidal response is associated with catastrophic appearances of disease outbreaks when outside-host species richness, or overall competition pressure, decreases. This indicates that alleviating outside-host competition with antibacterial substances that also target the competitors can have unexpected outcomes by providing benefits for opportunist pathogens. These findings may help in developing alternative ways of controlling environmental opportunist pathogens.