Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts

Tropical Dry Forest Diversity, Climatic Response, and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Central and South America tropical dry forest (TDF) is a water-limited biome with a high number of endemic species and numerous ecosystem services which has experienced a boom in research in the last decade. Although the number of case studies across these seasonal, water-limited, tropical forests has increased, there has not been a comprehensive review to assess the physiological variability of this biome across the continent and assess how these forests respond to climatic variables. Additionally, understanding forest change and resilience under climatic variability, currently and in the future, is essential for assessing the future extent and health of forests in the future. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to provide a literature review on the variability of TDF diversity and structure across a latitudinal gradient and to assess how these components respond to differences in climatic variables across this geographic area. We first assess the current state of understanding of the structure, biomass, phenological cycles, and successional stages across the latitudinal gradient. We subsequently review the response of these five areas to differences in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events, such as droughts and hurricanes. We find that there is a range of adaptability to precipitation, with many areas exhibiting drought tolerance except under the most extreme circumstances, while being susceptible to damage from increased extreme precipitation events. Finally, we use this climatic response to provide a commentary on the projected resilience of TDFs under climatic changes, finding a likelihood of resilience under drying scenarios, although model projections do not agree on the magnitude or direction of precipitation change. This review of quantitative studies will provide more concrete details on the current diversity that encompasses the TDF, the natural climatic ranges under which this ecosystem can survive and thrive, and can help inform future forest management practices under climate change scenarios.

Mapping Global Environmental Suitability for Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench

Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench, called sweet sorghum, is a drought-resistant and heat-tolerant plant used for ethanol bioenergy production, and is able to reduce the competition between growing crops for energy vs. growing crops for food. Quantitatively mapping the marginal lands of sweet sorghum is essential for the development of sorghum-based fuel ethanol production. However, knowledge of the contemporary marginal lands of sweet sorghum remains incomplete, and usually relies on sample data or is evaluated at a national or regional scale based on established rules. In this study, a novel method was demonstrated for mapping the global marginal lands of sweet sorghum based on a machine learning model. The total amount of global marginal lands suitable for sweet sorghum is 4802.21 million hectares. The model was applied to training and validation samples, and achieved high predictive performance, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) values of 0.984 and 0.978, respectively. In addition, the results illustrate that maximum annual temperature contributes more than do other variables to the predicted distribution of sweet sorghum and has a contribution rate of 40.2%.

Forest Fragmentation and Connectivity in Virginia Between 2001 and 2011

With an annual population growth rate currently estimated at about 5 %, Virginia presents an ideal case study for anthropogenic environmental disturbances. Urbanization as a result of increasing human activities has led to fragmentation of many crucial habitats, especially forests. Analysis of the extent to which forest fragmentation and connectivity have occurred in Virginia and corresponding changes associated with these processes, is relevant for conserving forest habitats and the biodiversity that they support. This study applies FRAGSTATS, a software system developed to assess forest fragmentation and connectivity, in combination with ArcGIS, to identify changes in forest patch metrics for Virginia over a ten-year interval (2001, 2006 and 2011) using National Land Cover Datasets (NLCD) maps as data source. Results show that, over ten years, forest patches have significantly declined in size, while the number of forest patches and total length of edge areas have increased over time. Results of this study show that road density in Virginia has no significant effect on forest fragmentation between 2001 and 2011. Analysis using ArcGIS revealed that sizes of core forest areas in Virginia are declining, and that these reductions match local topographic slope. This is because the steepness of the slope of an area dictates the degree of human activities in that area. These results suggest that urban sprawl associated with areas with gentler slopes, may have significant, long-term consequences for natural forest ecosystems and ultimately, biodiversity conservation.

Satellite image fusion to detect changing surface permeability and emerging urban heat islands in a fast-growing city

Rapid and extensive urbanization has adversely impacted humans and ecological entities in the recent decades through a decrease in surface permeability and the emergence of Urban Heat Islands (UHI). While detailed and continuous assessments of surface permeability and UHI are crucial for urban planning and management of landuse zones, they mostly involve time consuming and expensive field studies and single sensor derived large scale aerial and satellite imageries. We demonstrated the advantage of fusing imageries from multiple sensors for landuse and landcover (LULC) change assessments as well as for assessing surface permeability and temperature and UHI emergence in a fast growing city, i.e. Tirunelveli, Tamilnadu, India. IRS-LISSIII and Landsat-7 ETM+ imageries were fused for 2007 and 2017, and classified using a Rotation Forest (RF) algorithm. Surface permeability and temperature were then quantified using Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) index, respectively. Finally, we assessed the relationship between SAVI and LST for entire Tirunelveli as well as for each LULC zone, and also detected UHI emergence hot spots using a SAVI-LST combined metric. Our fused images exhibited higher classification accuracies, i.e. overall kappa coefficient values, than non-fused images. We observed an overall increase in the coverage of urban (dry, real estate plots and built-up) areas, while a decrease for vegetated (cropland and forest) areas in Tirunelveli between 2007 and 2017. The SAVI values indicated an extensive decrease in surface permeability for Tirunelveli overall and also for almost all LULC zones. The LST values showed an overall increase of surface temperature in Tirunelveli with the highest increase for urban built-up areas between 2007 and 2017. LST also exhibited a strong negative association with SAVI. Southeastern built-up areas in Tirunelveli were depicted as a potential UHI hotspot, with a caution for the Western riparian zone for UHI emergence in 2017. Our results provide important metrics for surface permeability, temperature and UHI monitoring, and inform urban and zonal planning authorities about the advantages of satellite image fusion.

Dynamics of vegetation autumn phenology and its response to multiple environmental factors from 1982 to 2012 on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in China

Autumn phenological shifts induced by environmental change have resulted in substantial impacts on ecosystem processes. However, autumn phenology and its multiple related controlling factors have not been well studied. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of the end date of the vegetation growing season (EGS) and their multiple controls (climate change, summer vegetation growth and human activities) over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) were investigated using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on GIMMS3g datasets during 1982-2012. The results showed that there was no significant temporal trend in the EGS during the period of 1982-2012. Spatially, there was a notable advancing trend in the southwest region and a delayed trend in the other regions of the QTP during 1982-2000, and this spatial trend was reversed during 2001-2012. We found average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration of autumn exerted positive effects on EGS on the QTP, while average temperature and sunshine duration of summer exerted negative effects. Our results indicated that vegetation growth in summer tends to induce an earlier EGS in alpine vegetation, whereas summer vegetation degradation could delay the EGS on the QTP. In contrast, moderate grazing delays vegetation browning in autumn, while overgrazing leads to advancement of grass senescence. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables jointly affect autumn phenology and highlights the importance of biotic controls for autumn phenology on the QTP.

Changes in urban plant phenology in the Pacific Northwest from 1959 to 2016: anthropogenic warming and natural oscillation

In the Pacific Northwest of the USA, winter and spring temperature vary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, making effects of anthropogenic warming difficult to detect. We sought to detect community-level signals of anthropogenic change in a legacy plant phenology dataset. We analyzed both incomplete data from 1959 to 2016 on spring phenology of 115 species and more complete 1996-2016 data on spring and fall events for 607 plant species. We used ordination of the long-term dataset to identify two major axes of community-level change in phenology among years, with the first being a trend toward earlier spring phenology in more recent years. In contrast, for the short-term dataset, variation in spring phenology was mostly PDO-driven and did not reveal a strong trend over time. At both time scales, a second axis of phenological variation reflected summer and fall events, especially earlier appearance of fall color in recent years. In univariate analysis, more than 80% of individual species' leaf out dates and first flower dates occurred earlier over time, for an average advance across all species of 2.5 days per decade from 1959 to 2016. While most events did not advance in the period 1996-2016, fall color advanced by 10.6 days per decade, suggesting that intensification of summer drought has continued regardless of the PDO cycle. While estimates of slope over time depended strongly on the time window chosen for the analysis, estimates of slope versus temperature were consistently negative regardless of time window, averaging 5-7 days per 1 °C for spring events.

Antagonistic effects of growing season and autumn temperatures on the timing of leaf coloration in winter deciduous trees

Autumn phenology remains a relatively neglected aspect in climate change research, which hinders an accurate assessment of the global carbon cycle and its sensitivity to climate change. Leaf coloration, a key indicator of the growing season end, is thought to be triggered mainly by high or low temperature and drought. However, how the control of leaf coloration is split between temperature and drought is not known for many species. Moreover, whether growing season and autumn temperatures interact in influencing the timing of leaf coloration is not clear. Here, we revealed major climate drivers of leaf coloration dates and their interactions using 154 phenological datasets for four winter deciduous tree species at 89 stations, and the corresponding daily mean/minimum air temperature and precipitation data across China's temperate zone from 1981 to 2012. Results show that temperature is more decisive than drought in causing leaf coloration, and the growing season mean temperature plays a more important role than the autumn mean minimum temperature. Higher growing season temperature and lower autumn minimum temperature would induce earlier leaf coloration date. Moreover, the mean temperature over the growing season correlates positively with the autumn minimum temperature. This implies that growing season mean temperature may offset the requirement of autumn minimum temperature in triggering leaf coloration. Our findings deepen the understanding of leaf coloration mechanisms in winter deciduous trees and suggest that leaf life-span control depended on growing season mean temperature and autumn low temperature control and their interaction are major environmental cues. In the context of climate change, whether leaf coloration date advances or is delayed may depend on intensity of the offset effect of growing season temperature on autumn low temperature.

Explaining European fungal fruiting phenology with climate variability

Here we assess the impact of geographically dependent (latitude, longitude, and altitude) changes in bioclimatic (temperature, precipitation, and primary productivity) variability on fungal fruiting phenology across Europe. Two main nutritional guilds of fungi, saprotrophic and ectomycorrhizal, were further separated into spring and autumn fruiters. We used a path analysis to investigate how biogeographic patterns in fungal fruiting phenology coincided with seasonal changes in climate and primary production. Across central to northern Europe, mean fruiting varied by approximately 25 d, primarily with latitude. Altitude affected fruiting by up to 30 d, with spring delays and autumnal accelerations. Fruiting was as much explained by the effects of bioclimatic variability as by their large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature drove fruiting of autumnal ectomycorrhizal and saprotrophic groups as well as spring saprotrophic groups, while primary production and precipitation were major drivers for spring-fruiting ectomycorrhizal fungi. Species-specific phenology predictors were not stable, instead deviating from the overall mean. There is significant likelihood that further climatic change, especially in temperature, will impact fungal phenology patterns at large spatial scales. The ecological implications are diverse, potentially affecting food webs (asynchrony), nutrient cycling and the timing of nutrient availability in ecosystems.

Larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than spring leaf-out phenology

Climate warming is substantially shifting the leaf phenological events of plants, and thereby impacting on their individual fitness and also on the structure and functioning of ecosystems. Previous studies have largely focused on the climate impact on spring phenology, and to date the processes underlying leaf senescence and their associated environmental drivers remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments with temperature gradients imposed during the summer and autumn were conducted on saplings of European beech to explore the temperature responses of leaf senescence. An additional warming experiment during winter enabled us to assess the differences in temperature responses of spring leaf-out and autumn leaf senescence. We found that warming significantly delayed the dates of leaf senescence both during summer and autumn warming, with similar temperature sensitivities (6-8 days delay per °C warming), suggesting that, in the absence of water and nutrient limitation, temperature may be a dominant factor controlling the leaf senescence in European beech. Interestingly, we found a significantly larger temperature response of autumn leaf senescence than of spring leaf-out. This suggests a possible larger contribution of delays in autumn senescence, than of the advancement in spring leaf-out, to extending the growing season under future warmer conditions.

Changes in vegetation phenology on the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants

Climate change affects the timing of phenological events, such as the start, end, and length of the growing season of vegetation. A better understanding of how the phenology responded to climatic determinants is important in order to better anticipate future climate-ecosystem interactions. We examined the changes of three phenological events for the Mongolian Plateau and their climatic determinants. To do so, we derived three phenological metrics from remotely sensed vegetation indices and associated these with climate data for the period of 1982 to 2011. The results suggested that the start of the growing season advanced by 0.10 days yr-1, the end was delayed by 0.11 days yr-1, and the length of the growing season expanded by 6.3 days during the period from 1982 to 2011. The delayed end and extended length of the growing season were observed consistently in grassland, forest, and shrubland, while the earlier start was only observed in grassland. Partial correlation analysis between the phenological events and the climate variables revealed that higher temperature was associated with an earlier start of the growing season, and both temperature and precipitation contributed to the later ending. Overall, our findings suggest that climate change will substantially alter the vegetation phenology in the grasslands of the Mongolian Plateau, and likely also in biomes with similar environmental conditions, such as other semi-arid steppe regions.

Evolutionary dynamics of the leaf phenological cycle in an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient

It has been predicted that environmental changes will radically alter the selective pressures on phenological traits. Long-lived species, such as trees, will be particularly affected, as they may need to undergo major adaptive change over only one or a few generations. The traits describing the annual life cycle of trees are generally highly evolvable, but nothing is known about the strength of their genetic correlations. Tight correlations can impose strong evolutionary constraints, potentially hampering the adaptation of multivariate phenological phenotypes. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary, genetic and environmental components of the timing of leaf unfolding and senescence within an oak metapopulation along an elevation gradient. Population divergence, estimated from in situ and common-garden data, was compared to expectations under neutral evolution, based on microsatellite markers. This approach made it possible (1) to evaluate the influence of genetic correlation on multivariate local adaptation to elevation and (2) to identify traits probably exposed to past selective pressures due to the colder climate at high elevation. The genetic correlation was positive but very weak, indicating that genetic constraints did not shape the local adaptation pattern for leaf phenology. Both spring and fall (leaf unfolding and senescence, respectively) phenology timings were involved in local adaptation, but leaf unfolding was probably the trait most exposed to climate change-induced selection. Our data indicated that genetic variation makes a much smaller contribution to adaptation than the considerable plastic variation displayed by a tree during its lifetime. The evolutionary potential of leaf phenology is, therefore, probably not the most critical aspect for short-term population survival in a changing climate.

The full annual carbon balance of a subtropical coniferous plantation is highly sensitive to autumn precipitation

Deep understanding of the effects of precipitation on carbon budgets is essential to assess the carbon balance accurately and can help predict potential variation within the global change context. Therefore, we addressed this issue by analyzing twelve years (2003-2014) of observations of carbon fluxes and their corresponding temperature and precipitation data in a subtropical coniferous plantation at the Qianyanzhou (QYZ) site, southern China. During the observation years, this coniferous ecosystem experienced four cold springs whose effects on the carbon budgets were relatively clear based on previous studies. To unravel the effects of temperature and precipitation, the effects of autumn precipitation were examined by grouping the data into two pools based on whether the years experienced cold springs. The results indicated that precipitation in autumn can accelerate the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the following year. Meanwhile, divergent effects of precipitation on ecosystem respiration (Re) were found. Autumn precipitation was found to enhance Re in normal years but the same regulation was not found in the cold-spring years. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of carbon balance in global climate change projections, the effects of precipitation must be considered to better constrain the uncertainties associated with the estimation.

Spring and Autumn Phenological Variability across Environmental Gradients of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA

Mountainous regions experience complex phenological behavior along climatic, vegetational and topographic gradients. In this paper, we use a MODIS time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to understand the causes of variations in spring and autumn timing from 2000 to 2015, for a landscape renowned for its biological diversity. By filtering for cover type, topography and disturbance history, we achieved an improved understanding of the effects of seasonal weather variation on land surface phenology (LSP). Elevational effects were greatest in spring and were more important than site moisture effects. The spring and autumn NDVI of deciduous forests were found to increase in response to antecedent warm temperatures, with evidence of possible cross-seasonal lag effects, including possible accelerated green-up after cold Januarys and early brown-down following warm springs. Areas that were disturbed by the hemlock woolly adelgid and a severe tornado showed a weaker sensitivity to cross-year temperature and precipitation variation, while low severity wildland fire had no discernable effect. Use of ancillary datasets to filter for disturbance and vegetation type improves our understanding of vegetation’s phenological responsiveness to climate dynamics across complex environmental gradients.

Geographical and climatic gradients of evergreen versus deciduous broad-leaved tree species in subtropical China: Implications for the definition of the mixed forest

Understanding climatic influences on the proportion of evergreen versus deciduous broad-leaved tree species in forests is of crucial importance when predicting the impact of climate change on broad-leaved forests. Here, we quantified the geographical distribution of evergreen versus deciduous broad-leaved tree species in subtropical China. The Relative Importance Value index (RIV) was used to examine regional patterns in tree species dominance and was related to three key climatic variables: mean annual temperature (MAT), minimum temperature of the coldest month (MinT), and mean annual precipitation (MAP). We found the RIV of evergreen species to decrease with latitude at a lapse rate of 10% per degree between 23.5 and 25°N, 1% per degree at 25-29.1°N, and 15% per degree at 29.1-34°N. The RIV of evergreen species increased with: MinT at a lapse rate of 10% per °C between -4.5 and 2.5°C and 2% per °C at 2.5-10.5°C; MAP at a lapse rate of 10% per 100 mm between 900 and 1,600 mm and 4% per 100 mm between 1,600 and 2,250 mm. All selected climatic variables cumulatively explained 71% of the geographical variation in dominance of evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved tree species and the climatic variables, ranked in order of decreasing effects were as follows: MinT > MAP > MAT. We further proposed that the latitudinal limit of evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved mixed forests was 29.1-32°N, corresponding with MAT of 11-18.1°C, MinT of -2.5 to 2.51°C, and MAP of 1,000-1,630 mm. This study is the first quantitative assessment of climatic correlates with the evergreenness and deciduousness of broad-leaved forests in subtropical China and underscores that extreme cold temperature is the most important climatic determinant of evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved tree species' distributions, a finding that confirms earlier qualitative studies. Our findings also offer new insight into the definition and distribution of the mixed forest and an accurate assessment of vulnerability of mixed forests to future climate change.