Accuracy of cause-of-death coding in Taiwan: types of miscoding and effects on mortality statistics

Risk of All-Cause Mortality, Cardiovascular Disease Mortality, and Cancer Mortality in Patients With Bullous Pemphigoid

IMPORTANCE

The role of bullous pemphigoid (BP) in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality remains controversial, and analyses of causes of death among patients with BP based on individual data remain lacking.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk of all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and cancer mortality in patients with BP.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study identified patients who received a diagnosis of and treatment for BP during their dermatology clinic visits at a tertiary medical center in central Taiwan between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2017. Controls were patients without BP and were individually matched to cases (4:1) according to age, sex, and date of the dermatology clinic visit. Data were analyzed from March 6, 2019, to April 2, 2021.

EXPOSURES

Bullous pemphigoid was confirmed pathologically with typical direct immunofluorescence findings or clinically with typical clinical presentation, positive findings of an anti-basement membrane zone antibody test, and corticosteroid use for at least 28 cumulative days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality outcomes confirmed by the National Death Registry.

RESULTS

Of 252 patients with BP and 1008 matched control patients (N = 1260), 685 (54.4%) were men and the median age was 78.0 (IQR, 70.3-84.8) years. Patients with BP had higher CVD mortality at 1 year (20 [7.9%] vs 13 [1.3%]), 3 years (28 [11.1%] vs 24 [2.4%]), and 5 years (31 [12.3%] vs 39 [3.9%]) compared with matched control patients. After adjusting for potential confounding variables, patients with BP had a 5-fold higher risk of CVD mortality at 1 year (hazard ratio [HR], 5.29 [95% CI, 2.40-11.68]), 3 years (HR, 5.79 [95% CI, 3.11-10.78]), and 5 years (HR, 4.95 [95% CI, 2.88-8.51]). Subgroup analyses revealed that the CVD mortality risk associated with BP was higher in patients without a history of hypertension (HR, 7.28 [95% CI, 3.87-13.69]) or CVD (HR, 6.59 [95% CI, 3.40-12.79]) and in patients without prior diuretic use (HR, 5.75 [95% CI, 3.15-10.50]) compared with matched control patients. In addition, all-cause mortality associated with BP was higher in patients without prior corticosteroid use than in control patients (HR 5.65 [95% CI, 4.19-7.61]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this cohort study suggest that BP was associated with a 5-fold higher risk of CVD mortality, particularly in patients without underlying hypertension or CVD or those without prior corticosteroid or diuretic use. Future studies should investigate the benefits of routine monitoring and timely management of CVD symptoms and signs in patients with BP.

Effect of Blue Light-Filtering Intraocular Lenses on Age-Related Macular Degeneration: A Nationwide Cohort Study With 10-Year Follow-up

PURPOSE

To determine the incidence rate of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) after cataract surgery and compare the relative incidence of AMD in pseudophakes with blue light-filtering intraocular lenses (BF-IOLs) and non-BF-IOLs.

DESIGN

A nationwide cohort study conducted using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database.

METHODS

We enrolled 186,591 patients who underwent cataract surgery in both eyes between 2008 and 2013 and monitored them from the index date (the date of first cataract surgery) until AMD, death, loss to follow-up, or December 31, 2017, whichever occurred first. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance the baseline characteristics between the BF-IOL and non-BF-IOL groups.

RESULTS

BF-IOLs were implanted in 21,126 patients (11.3%) and non-BF-IOLs were implanted in 165,465 patients (88.7%). Patients in the BF-IOL group tended to be younger, with fewer men, different cataract surgery years, higher income, more nonmanual workers, more patients from urban and suburban areas, and fewer chronic diseases compared with the non-BF-IOL group. With a mean follow-up period of 6.1 years (range, 1-10 years) after cataract surgery, 12,533 and 1655 patients developed non-exudative AMD and exudative AMD, respectively. The incidence rate of non-exudative AMD and exudative AMD (per 1000 person-years) was 9.95 and 1.22 for the BF-IOL group and 11.13 and 1.44 for the non-BF-IOL group, respectively. After PSM, no statistical difference in the incidence rate of nonexudative AMD (hazards ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.88-1.03) and exudative AMD (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.77-1.18) was observed between the BF-IOL and non-BF-IOL groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In Taiwan, the incidence rate of AMD after cataract surgery was 11.59 per 1000 person-years. The use of a BF-IOL for up to 10 years had no apparent advantage over a non-BF-IOL in the incidence of AMD.

Coding quality of deaths and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality data from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis of the WHO Mortality Database

Background

Several studies have assessed the reporting quality of all-cause mortality data from the WHO Mortality Database, but little is known about coding quality and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality data worldwide. We aimed to assess the coding quality of deaths and its impact on elderly unintentional fall mortality.

Methods

Using data from the WHO Mortality Database, 1990–2019, we calculated the number of countries/territories that had mortality data in the database, and the proportion of deaths with five types of problematic codes based on the 10th International Classification of Disease (unspecified deaths, injury deaths with undetermined intent, unspecified unintentional injury, unintentional falls with unspecified mechanism, unintentional falls with unknown occurrence place). We estimated age-adjusted unintentional fall mortality before and after correcting problematic codes.

Results

Only 64% (124/194) of WHO member states had at least 1 year of mortality data in the database during 1990–2019, and data unavailability was more common for underdeveloped countries/territories than for developed countries/territories. Coding quality was poor for many countries/territories. Among the study years when countries/territories possessed mortality data, 80, 53, 51, and 63% had a proportion of unintentional fall deaths with unspecified mechanism over 50% in low-income, lower middle-income, upper middle-income, and high-income countries/territories, respectively; comparable proportions for unintentional fall deaths with unknown occurrence place were 100, 42, 71, and 62%. Among the 94 countries/territories having mortality data, problematic codes caused a relative mortality difference ≥ 50% in 59 countries/territories (63%). After correcting problematic codes, 5 of 55 countries/territories with data witnessed a reverse in mortality changes between 2005 and 2015. Among the 82 countries/territories with mortality data for 5 or more years, 18 countries/territories (22%) experienced a directional reverse in linear regression coefficient.

Conclusions

The availability and coding quality of global data related to elderly unintentional fall mortality was poor between 1990 and 2019. When data are available, varying coding quality across countries/territories and over time have a substantial impact on mortality estimates and mortality comparisons. Global agencies plus each individual government should be aware of the importance of collecting and sharing high-quality mortality data, and take action to improve data quality for inclusion in the WHO Mortality Database.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-021-02744-3.

Synchronous/metachronous endometrial and colorectal malignancies in Taiwanese women: a population-based nationwide study

INTRODUCTION

Endometrial cancer (EC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) may share a common genetic background. In a subset of patients, the two malignancies can coexist either at the time of diagnosis (synchronous) or develop consequently (metachronous). The purpose of this nationwide, population-based study was to investigate the occurrence and clinical outcomes of synchronous/metachronous EC/CRC in Taiwanese women.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data for women diagnosed with EC and/or CRC between 2007 and 2015 were retrospectively retrieved from the nationwide Taiwan Cancer Registry. Mortality data were obtained from the National Death Registry. Women with synchronous/metachronous EC/CRC versus EC or CRC were compared in terms of clinical characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

Of the 62,764 Taiwanese women diagnosed with EC and/or CRC during the study period, 167 (0.3%) had synchronous/metachronous EC/CRC. Among them, 72 cases (43.1%) presented with EC followed by CRC, 66 (39.5%) with CRC followed by EC, and 29 (17.4%) with synchronous EC/CRC. Kaplan-Meier estimates for time-to-event data revealed that the 2-year risk rates of developing a metachronous tumor of interest (CRC or EC) in women diagnosed with an initial EC and CRC were 39.6% and 42.1%, respectively. The 5-year overall survival rates of women with metachronous EC/CRC who had an initial diagnosis of EC, CRC, and synchronous EC/CRC were 73.9%, 70.9%, and 37.0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Endometrial cancer is the most common first tumor in Taiwanese women with metachronous EC/CRC. The 2-year risk rates of developing a metachronous tumor of interest (CRC or EC) in women diagnosed with an initial EC and CRC are not negligible. Surveillance for CRC is recommended for all women diagnosed with EC. The clinical outcomes of synchronous EC/CRC are markedly less favorable.

Does the Application of International Classification of Disease Codes for the Cause of Death on Death Certificates Reduce Garbage Codes?

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to determine if applying International Classification of Diseases (ICD) disease codes directly as the cause of death (COD) on death certificates (DCs) instead of writing or typing the COD could reduce the use of garbage codes.

METHODS

Beginning in April of 2016, a documentation process change was made, retiring the process of hand-writing or typing the COD onto DCs to directly applying ICD disease codes that were registered during the patient's course of treatment. The DCs issued at the emergency department (ED) 1 year before (Pre-code group) and after (Code group) applying ICD disease codes directly on DCs was instituted were retrospectively analyzed. The occurrence of garbage codes along with other major and minor errors was compared between the two groups. The investigation and judgment of errors were performed by four emergency physicians.

RESULTS

The overall garbage code occurrence in the Code group (25%) was significantly lower than that in the Pre-code group (49%). Fewer garbage codes were used in the Code group with an average of .5 in the Pre-code group and .3 in the Code group. No significant difference was identified in major error occurrences except for in the garbage codes. Minor errors were more common in the Pre-code group than in the Code group.

CONCLUSION

The overall use of garbage codes on DCs could be reduced by changing the process by which physicians complete DCs, that is, the application of documenting ICD disease codes directly as the COD on DCs.

Long-Term Clinical Outcomes of Fractional Flow Reserve-Guided Coronary Artery Revascularization in Chronic Kidney Disease

Fractional flow reserve (FFR)-guided percutaneous coronary intervention has shown favorable long-term clinical outcomes. However, limited data exist evaluating the FFR assessment among the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term clinical outcomes of FFR-guided coronary revascularization in patients with CKD. A total of 242 CKD patients who underwent FFR assessment were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into two groups: revascularization (FFR ≤ 0.80) and non-revascularization (FFR > 0.80). The primary endpoint was the composite of cardiac death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and target vessel failure (TVF). The key secondary endpoint was TVF. The Cox regression model was used for risk evaluation. With 91% of the ischemic vessels revascularized, the revascularization group had higher risks for both the primary endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–3.97; p = 0.030) and key secondary endpoint (aHR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.10–4.37; p = 0.026), during a median follow-up of 2.9 years. This result was consistent among different CKD severities. In patients with CKD, functional ischemia in coronary artery stenosis was associated with poor clinical outcomes despite coronary revascularization.

Role of Heart Rate Variability in Association Between Glomerular Hyperfiltration and All-Cause Mortality

Background

Glomerular hyperfiltration (GHF) is paradoxically associated with increased cardiovascular events in healthy individuals, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We aim to investigate whether GHF is associated with mortality and whether decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is associated with GHF.

Methods and Results

We retrospectively analyzed 1615 participants (aged 66.1±17.3 years, 61.9% men) without prior cardiovascular events. The glomerular filtration rate was estimated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation. GHF was defined as glomerular filtration rate >the 95th percentile after stratification for age and sex, whereas normal filtration was defined as the 25th to 75th percentiles. HRV indexes, including time domain, frequency domain, and sample entropy, were measured using 24‐hour ambulatory electrocardiography. Clinical outcomes were defined as all‐cause mortality at 2 years. During a mean follow‐up of 16.5±8.2 months, there were 117 deaths (7.2%). GHF was associated with a higher risk of death (hazard ratio and 95% CIs, 1.97 [1.15–3.37]). Reduced HRV indexes, including time domain, frequency domain, and sample entropy (odds ratio and 95% CIs, 0.79 [0.70–0.89]) were all independently associated with the presence of GHF after accounting for age, sex, mean heart rate, morbidities, and medications. In subgroup analysis, reduced HRV was more predictive of GHF in the young than the elderly. Mediation analysis revealed a significant mediation effect between HRV and GHF in addition to their respective detrimental effects on survival.

Conclusions

Reduced HRV was independently associated with the presence of GHF. Autonomic dysfunction may be involved in the pathogenesis of adverse outcomes of GHF in individuals without prior cardiovascular events.

Risks of all-cause death and completed suicide in patients with schizophrenia/schizoaffective disorder treated with long-acting injectable or oral antipsychotics: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Taiwan

Background

Methods

Results

Discussion

The Age-Period-Cohort trends of suicide in Hong Kong and Taiwan, 1979-2018

BACKGROUND

The global age-standardized suicide rate fell by 32.7% between 1990 and 2016. The decrease was largely due to suicide rate reductions in China and India. High-income Asian regions did not see such reductions. The aim of the current study was to explore recent suicide rate trends in Hong Kong and Taiwan to decompose which factors - age, period or cohort - explain suicide rate changes in these two regions.

METHODS

Official mortality data for 1979-2018 in Hong Kong and Taiwan were collected. We utilized Web Tool from the NIH (National Institute of Health, USA) to analyze the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) effects.

RESULTS

We found marked age-effect that suicide rates increased with age in both genders in both places. Period effect related to the dissemination of charcoal burning suicide was found during 1999-2003 in Hong Kong and 2004-2008 in Taiwan. Increasing suicide rates in the middle- and young-age male cohorts were found in both regions. No increase in suicide risks in young female cohorts was observed. Older cohorts in Hong Kong and older female cohorts in Taiwan also had high suicide rates, but older male cohorts in Taiwan had low rate.

LIMITATIONS

The interpretations and observations at the population level might not hold at the individual level.

CONCLUSIONS

The high suicide risk in middle- and young male cohorts in both regions contribute to the persistent high suicide rates in these two regions. Special attention should be turn to the factors underlying such increasing trends.

Women's Suicide in the First-Year Postpartum: A Population-based Study

BACKGROUND

In dominant suicidology there is a long traditionof theorizing that women are protected from suicide, particularly when mothers and during the postpartum. Studies have mostly confirmed the postpartum suicide-protection theory, with low suicide mortality generally observed among postpartum women. A limitation of these studies is that most were conducted in majority European-descent-population countries. A challenge to the more general maternal suicide-protection theory is that in East-Asia women of childbearing age exhibit substantial suicidality, nonfatal and fatal. This study evaluated whether suicide is less likely in first-year postpartum women as compared to women past the first-year postpartum.

METHODS

This population-based, nested case-control study focused on women whose live birth was between 2001 and 2016 in East-Asian Taiwan. To ascertain suicide outcomes, the women were followed until 2017. For each suicide case, four control cases were randomly selected from the Birth Certificate Application dataset, with a 1:4 matching ratio based on age of last live-delivery and parity (one delivery record vs. two or more records) (cases N = 1571; controls N = 6284). Conditional logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess whether suicide was less likely in women in the first-year postpartum relative to women past the first-year postpartum.

RESULTS

The odds ratios of suicide were elevated at 42 days postpartum [Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.06; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = (1.04, 4.16)], six-months postpartum [OR = 2.28; 95% CI = (1.60, 3.29)] and one-year postpartum [OR = 2.26; 95% CI = (1.76, 2.96)], when controlling for sociodemographic and mental-disorder variables. Suicide was more likely in women who were single at index birth, had lower socioeconomic status, or had a mental disorder history.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the postpartum stage is not suicide-protective per se. Whether the postpartum stage is associated with suicide protection or suiciderisk appears to depend on context and culture.

Emphysema-Predominant COPD Had a Greater 5-Year Mortality and a Worse Annual Decline in Lung Function Than Airway Obstruction-Predominant COPD or Asthma at Initial Same Degree of Airflow Obstruction

Background and Objectives: We studied whether the extent of exertional oxygen desaturation and emphysema could cause greater mortality in COPD and asthma independent of airflow obstruction. Materials and Methods: We performed a 5-year longitudinal observational study in COPD and asthma patients who matched for airflow obstruction severity. All subjects performed a 6-min walk test (6MWT) and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) and followed spirometry and oxygen saturation (SpO₂) during the 6MWT every 3–6 months. Overall survival was recorded. Cumulative survival curves were performed according to the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Results: The COPD group had higher emphysema scores, higher Δinspiratory capacities (ICs) and lower SpO₂ during the 6MWT, which showed a greater yearly decline in FEV₁ (40.6 mL) and forced vital capacity (FVC) (28 mL) than the asthma group (FEV₁, 9.6 mL; FVC, 1.2 mL; p < 0.05). The emphysema-predominant COPD group had an accelerated annual decline in lung function and worse survival. The nadir SpO₂ ≤ 80% and a higher emphysema score were the strong risk factors for mortality in COPD patients. Conclusions: The greater structural changes with a higher emphysema score and greater desaturation during the 6MWT in COPD may contribute to worse yearly decline in FEV₁ and higher five-year mortality than in asthma patients with a similar airflow obstruction. The lowest SpO₂ ≤ 80% during the 6MWT and emphysema-predominant COPD were the strong independent factors for mortality in chronic obstructive airway disease patients.

All-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, major cardiovascular events and hypoglycaemia of patients with diabetes onset at an older age: results from the 10-year nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal adverse outcomes are unclear among adults with diabetes according to the age of onset.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the longitudinal diabetes-related outcomes in adults with new-onset diabetes stratified by age.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database claims data from 2000 to 2015.

SUBJECTS

In total, 115,751 participants aged ≥40 years with new-onset diabetes in 2003 were recruited and stratified by the ages 40-64 (64.3%), 65-74 (21.2%), 75-84 (11.8%) and ≥85 years (2.7%) at the time of diagnosis.

METHODS

Time-varying multivariate Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for covariates was used to examine the associations between the ages of the patients at diabetes onset and the outcomes of interest [all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality, major cardiovascular events (MACE) and hypoglycaemia] during a 10-year follow-up period.

RESULTS

The results showed that compared with those patients aged 40-64 at diagnosis, patients with older-onset diabetes had significantly higher comorbidities (P < 0.01) and a higher diabetes severity (P < 0.01). Patients with older-onset diabetes had a higher risk of all-cause mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 2.28, 4.48 and 10.07 in 65-74, 75-84 and ≥85 years old, respectively], CV mortality (aHR = 2.82, 6.06 and 15.91), MACE (aHR = 2.19, 3.01 and 4.15) and hypoglycaemia (aHR = 2.41, 3.59 and 4.62) than patients aged 40-64 during a 10-year follow-up period.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with diabetes onset at an older age was associated with increased risks of all-cause mortality, CV mortality, MACE and hypoglycaemia after adjusting for the severity of diabetes and anti-diabetic treatment.

Population-Based Study on the All-Cause and Cause-Specific Risks of Mortality among Long-Term Opioid Analgesics Users without Cancer in Taiwan

(1) Background: The prevalence of opioid use in Taiwan increased by 41% between 2002 and 2014. However, little is known regarding the risk of mortality among long-term opioid analgesics users who do not have cancer. This study investigated this mortality risk with an emphasis on the calendar year and patients’ age and sex. (2) Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 12,990 adult individuals without cancer who were long-term users of opioid analgesics and were randomly selected from the data set of Taiwan’s National Health Insurance program from 2000 to 2012. They were then followed up through 2013. Information on the underlying causes of death was retrieved from the Taiwan Death Registry. Age, sex, and calendar year-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were calculated with reference to those of the general population. (3) Results: With up to 14 years of follow-up, 558 individuals had all-cause mortality in 48,020 person-years (cumulative mortality: 4.3%, mortality rate: 11.62 per 1000 person-years). Compared with the general population, the all-cause SMR of 4.30 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 3.95–4.66) was significantly higher: it was higher in men than in women, declined with calendar year and age, and was significantly higher for both natural (4.15, 95% CI: 3.78–4.53) and unnatural (5.04, 95% CI: 3.88–6.45) causes. (4) Conclusions: Long-term opioid analgesics use among individuals without cancer in Taiwan was associated with a significantly increased risk of mortality. The notably increased mortality in younger adults warrants attention. Strategies to reduce long-term opioid analgesics use, especially their overuse or misuse, are in an urgent need.

Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Taiwan From 1998 Through 2014

Background

To investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Taiwanese patients with type 1 diabetes.

Methods

A cohort of 17,203 patients with type 1 diabetes were identified from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance claims in the period of 1998–2014. Person-years were accumulated for each individual from date of type 1 diabetes registration to date of death or the last day of 2014. Age, sex, and calendar year standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated with reference to the general population.

Results

In up to 17 years of follow-up, 4,916 patients died from 182,523 person-years. Diabetes (30.15%), cancer (20.48%), circulatory diseases (13.14%), and renal diseases (11.45%) were the leading underlying causes of death. Mortality rate (26.93 per 1,000 person-years) from type 1 diabetes in Taiwan was high, the cause of death with the highest mortality rate was diabetes (8.12 per 1,000 person-years), followed by cancer (5.52 per 1,000 person-years), and circulatory diseases (3.54 per 1,000 person-years). The all-cause SMR was significantly elevated at 4.16 (95% confidence interval, 4.04–4.28), with a greater all-cause SMR noted in females than in males (4.62 vs 3.79). The cause-specific SMR was highly elevated for diabetes (SMR, 16.45), followed by renal disease (SMR, 14.48), chronic hepatitis and liver cirrhosis (SMR, 4.91) and infection (SMR, 4.59). All-cause SMRs were also significantly increased for all ages, with the greatest figure noted for 15–24 years (SMR, 8.46).

Conclusions

Type 1 diabetes in both genders and all ages was associated with significantly elevated SMRs for all-cause and mostly for diabetes per se and renal disease.

Survival and Death Causes in Thyroid Cancer in Taiwan: A Nationwide Case-Control Cohort Study

Simple Summary

This study aims to evaluate overall survival and the risk of cause-specific mortality of thyroid cancer patients. Thyroid cancer patients were obtained from the universal health insurance claims from Taiwan between 2001 and 2017. We compared these patients with control subjects matched for age, gender, and baseline conditions to assess the risk of mortality. Of the 30,778 patients with thyroid cancer, the overall mortality rate was 1.29% and the leading causes of death were thyroid cancer (31.2%), other cancers (29.9%), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality (12.3%), respectively. We found patients with thyroid cancer had excellent overall survival and lower CVD mortality risk.

Abstract

The incidence of thyroid cancer has increased substantially worldwide. However, the overall mortality risk and actual causes of death in thyroid cancer patients have not been extensively evaluated. In this study, patients with thyroid cancer diagnosed between 2001 and 2017 were analyzed from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database. We compared these patients with control subjects matched for age, gender, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and occupation to assess the risk of overall mortality and cause-specific mortality. Finally, our cohort comprised 30,778 patients with thyroid cancer. Three hundred and ninety-eight deaths (1.29%) occurred during a median follow-up of 60.0 months (range: 30.3 to 117.6 months). The primary cause of death was thyroid cancer mortality (31.2%), followed by other malignancy-related mortality (29.9%) and CVD mortality (12.3%). The overall mortality risk was similar between the thyroid cancer and control groups (unadjusted hazard ratio (HR): 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88–1.10); the adjusted HR was 1.07 (95% CI: 0.95–1.20) after multivariate adjustment for age, gender, history of CVD, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and occupation. The risk of other malignancy-related mortality was comparable between two groups. CVD mortality risk was lower in the thyroid cancer group, with an unadjusted HR of 0.51 (95% CI: 0.38–0.69) and adjusted HR of 0.56 (95% CI: 0.42–0.76). In conclusion, patients with thyroid cancer had excellent overall survival. Thyroid cancer-specific mortality was the leading cause of death, highlighting the importance of thyroid cancer management. Thyroid cancer patients had lower CVD mortality risk than the general population.

Validity of an algorithm to identify cardiovascular deaths from administrative health records: a multi-database population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular death is a common outcome in population-based studies about new healthcare interventions or treatments, such as new prescription medications. Vital statistics registration systems are often the preferred source of information about cause-specific mortality because they capture verified information about the deceased, but they may not always be accessible for linkage with other sources of population-based data. We assessed the validity of an algorithm applied to administrative health records for identifying cardiovascular deaths in population-based data.

METHODS

Administrative health records were from an existing multi-database cohort study about sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, a new class of antidiabetic medications. Data were from 2013 to 2018 for five Canadian provinces (Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec) and the United Kingdom (UK) Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). The cardiovascular mortality algorithm was based on in-hospital cardiovascular deaths identified from diagnosis codes and select out-of-hospital deaths. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were calculated for the cardiovascular mortality algorithm using vital statistics registrations as the reference standard. Overall and stratified estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed; the latter were produced by site, location of death, sex, and age.

RESULTS

The cohort included 20,607 individuals (58.3% male; 77.2% ≥70 years). When compared to vital statistics registrations, the cardiovascular mortality algorithm had overall sensitivity of 64.8% (95% CI 63.6, 66.0); site-specific estimates ranged from 54.8 to 87.3%. Overall specificity was 74.9% (95% CI 74.1, 75.6) and overall PPV was 54.5% (95% CI 53.7, 55.3), while site-specific PPV ranged from 33.9 to 72.8%. The cardiovascular mortality algorithm had sensitivity of 57.1% (95% CI 55.4, 58.8) for in-hospital deaths and 72.3% (95% CI 70.8, 73.9) for out-of-hospital deaths; specificity was 88.8% (95% CI 88.1, 89.5) for in-hospital deaths and 58.5% (95% CI 57.3, 59.7) for out-of-hospital deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

A cardiovascular mortality algorithm applied to administrative health records had moderate validity when compared to vital statistics data. Substantial variation existed across study sites representing different geographic locations and two healthcare systems. These variations may reflect different diagnostic coding practices and healthcare utilization patterns.

Impacts of treatments on recurrence and 28-year survival of ischemic stroke patients

Aspirin and nicametate are well-established therapies for preventing recurrence and mortality from stroke in patients diagnosed as ischemic stroke. However, their respective effects on the recurrence, making allowance for the duration of recurrence and death without the occurrence of recurrence, and long-term survival have not been well elucidated. We aimed to evaluate long-term effect of two kinds of treatment on cerebrovascular death among ischemic stroke patients with or without the recurrence of stroke. Data used in this study were derived from the cohort based on a multicenter randomized double-blind controlled trial during 1992 to 1995 with the enrollment of a total of 466 patients with first-time non-cardioembolic ischemic stroke who were randomly allocated to receive aspirin (n = 222) or nicametate (n = 244). The trial cohort was followed up over time to ascertain the date of recurrence within trial period and death until Sep of 2019. The time-dependent Cox regression model was used to estimate the long-term effects of two treatments on death from cerebrovascular disease with and without recurrence. A total of 49 patients experienced stroke recurrence and 89 cerebrovascular deaths was confirmed. Patients treated with nicametate were more likely, but non statistically significantly, to have recurrence (aHR: 1.73, 95% CI 0.96–3.13) as compared with those treated by aspirin. Nicametate reduced the risk of cerebrovascular death about 37% (aHR: 0.63, 95% CI 0.41–0.97) compared with aspirin. The aspirin group had a lower recurrence rate than the nicametate group even with recurrence after 1–2 years of follow-up of first stroke but the latter had significantly reduced death from cerebrovascular disease for nicametate group, which requires more research to verify.

Changes in Mortality Inequalities in Urban and Rural Populations during 1990-2018: Lithuanian Experience

Background and Objectives: Reduction in health inequalities is a highly important task in public health policies worldwide. In Lithuania, inequalities in mortality by place of residence are among the greatest, compared to other European Union (EU) countries. However, studies on inequalities in mortality by place of residence over a long-term period have not been investigated in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to present changes in mortality inequalities in urban and rural populations during 1990-2018. Materials and Methods: Mortality rates from all causes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, external causes, and gastrointestinal diseases in urban and rural population by sex were calculated per 100,000 populations and were standardized by age. Inequalities in mortality were assessed using rate differences and rate ratio. For the assessment of inequality trends during 1990-2018, the joinpoint regression analysis was applied. Results: Mortality between urban and rural populations varied. In rural areas, mortality lower than that in urban areas was observed only in 1990 among women, in case of mortality from cancer and gastrointestinal diseases (compared with in 2018) (p < 0.05). In 2018, mortality from all causes, cardiovascular diseases, and external causes in urban and rural areas was lower than in 1990 in both sexes. However, mortality from gastrointestinal diseases was higher (p < 0.05). In 2018, mortality from cancer among both sexes was lower only in urban areas (p < 0.05). Mortality inequalities between rural and urban areas decreased statistically significantly only among men from external causes and from all causes (respectively, on average, by 0.52% per year and, on average, by 0.21% per year). Meanwhile, mortality from cardiovascular and gastrointestinal diseases increased in both sexes, and mortality from cancer and all causes of death increased among women. The increase in the inequalities of mortality from gastrointestinal diseases was the most rapid: among men-on average, by 0.69% per year, and among women-on average, by 1.43% per year, p < 0.0001. Conclusions: During 1990-2018, the inequalities in mortality by place of residence in Lithuania statistically significantly decreased only among men, in terms of mortality from external causes and from all causes. Therefore, reduction in inequalities in mortality must be the main the health policy challenge in Lithuania.

Deep Venous Thrombosis and Risk of Consequent Sepsis Event: A Retrospective Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Deep vein thrombosis causes several acute and chronic vessel complications and puts patients at risk of subsequent sepsis development. This unique study aimed to estimate the risk of sepsis development in DVT patients compared with non-DVT patients. This population-based cohort study used records of a longitudinal health insurance database containing two million patients defined in Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD). Our study included patients aged over 20 years with a new diagnosis of DVT with at least two outpatient department visits or an admission between 2001 and 2014. Patients with a diagnosis of sepsis before the index date were excluded. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to homogenize the baseline characteristics between the two groups. To define the independent risk of the DVT group, a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate the hazard ratios. After PSM, the DVT group (n = 5753) exhibited a higher risk of sepsis (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.59-1.90) compared with non-DVT group (n = 5753). Patients with an increased risk of sepsis were associated with being elderly aged, male, having diabetes, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, malignancy, and use of antibiotics. In conclusion, this population-based cohort study demonstrated an increased risk of sepsis in DVT patients compared with non-DVT patients. Thus, early prevention and adequate treatment of DVT is necessary in clinical practice.

Venous Thromboembolism and Critical Limb Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Little is known about whether venous thromboembolism (VTE) causes worse critical limb events in populations with atrial fibrillation (AF). A retrospective cohort study using claims data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance program between 2001 and 2013 compared AF patients with or without VTE. Outcomes were percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA), amputation, systemic thromboembolism, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, ischemic stroke, and acute myocardial infarction. Patients (n = 316,817) with newly diagnosed AF were analyzed; of those, 2514 (0.79%) had VTE history. After inverse probability of treatment weighting, a history of VTE was significantly associated with higher risks of PTA (3.3 vs 2.2%; subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-1.84); above knee amputation (0.7 vs 0.3%; HR 2.15; 95% CI 1.10-4.21); systemic thromboembolism (5.8 vs 3.9%; SHR 1.48; 95% CI 1.21-1.80); all-cause mortality (53 vs 46.4%; HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.29); and cardiovascular death (34.8 vs 29.4%; HR 1.25, 95% CI 1.14-1.36). In conclusion, VTE might increase the risk of critical lower limb events (PTA and above-knee amputation), systemic thromboembolism, and mortality in the AF population. However, current data cannot confirm a causal relationship between VTE and clinical outcomes in this population.

Disability trajectories prior to death for ten leading causes of death among middle-aged and older adults in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Prolonged life expectancy is associated with increased prevalence of chronic diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the different disability trajectories for the top ten leading causes of death in Taiwan .

METHODS

A total of 2,431 participants aged 50-96 in 1996 from the Taiwan longitudinal study on aging (TLSA) who died from 1996 to 2016 were analyzed. Integration of Cause of Death Data and TLSA helped sort out participants who had died from the ten leading causes of death. The level of physical disability was evaluated with the Activities of Daily Living Scale (ADLs), ranging from 0 to 6 points, in 1996, 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011. A multilevel model was used to investigate the levels and rates of change in disability development before death.

RESULTS

The outcome of the research showed that the earliest group to experience physical limitation was individuals living with diabetes. The groups with the highest ADL scores were participants with diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, and hypertension-related diseases. Most groups reach ADL scores ≥ 1 (mild-level) during 4-6 years before death except chronic hepatitis and cirrhosis and injury.

CONCLUSIONS

People who had died from the ten leading causes of death experienced different disability trajectories before death. The trajectory of the participants who had died from diabetes showed a unique pattern with the earliest occurrence and more severe deterioration in terms of development of disabilities. Disability trajectories provide a prediction of survival status for middle-aged and older adults associated with the ten leading causes of death.

Real-World Effectiveness of Adjuvant Oxaliplatin Chemotherapy in Stage III Colon Cancer: A Controlled Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background: The real-world effectiveness of oxaliplatin in stage III colon cancer has not been determined in a large-scale population. We aimed to assess the real-world impact of adjuvant oxaliplatin treatment on the survival of these patients.

Methods: Based on Taiwan cancer registry, we evaluated 17,801 patients with resected stage III colon cancer, including 14,168 patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy and 3,633 not receiving adjuvant chemotherapy as the control group between 2004 and 2014. We used the controlled interrupted time-series analysis to assess the three-year disease-free survival and five-year overall survival rates before (2004–2008) and after (2009–2014) the addition of oxaliplatin.

Results: The introduction of oxaliplatin was associated with no significant improvement in the slopes (per half-year) of the three-year disease-free survival rate (0.2%, 95% CI: −1.7∼2.2%) and five-year overall survival rate (0.6%, 95% CI: −1.8∼3%). The patients receiving oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy also showed no significant increase in the slopes (per half-year) of the three-year disease-free survival rate (0.6%, 95% CI: −1.4∼2.6%) and five-year overall survival rate (1%, 95% CI: −1.5∼3.5%). The nonsignificant results were consistent across subgroup analyses of age (<70 vs. ≥70 years), recurrence risk (T1-3 or N1 vs. T4 or N2), and cycle of oxaliplatin use (≤6 vs. >6). However, oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy significantly increased the slope (per half-year) of the five-year OS (2%, 95% CI: 0.2∼3.8%) for patients in the high-risk group (T4 or N2). The present results were robust in several sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion: Among real-world patients with stage III colon cancer, the introduction of oxaliplatin does not yield a significant improvement in survival. Future work should identify the subpopulation(s) of patients who benefit significantly from the addition of oxaliplatin.

Timing of Bisphosphonate (Alendronate) Initiation after Surgery for Fragility Fracture: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Bisphosphonates are used as first-line treatment for the prevention of fragility fracture (FF); they act by inhibiting osteoclast-mediated bone resorption. The timing of their administration after FF surgery is controversial; thus, we compared the incidence of second FF, surgery for second FF, and adverse events associated with early initiation of bisphosphonates (EIBP, within 3 months of FF surgery) and late initiation of bisphosphonates (LIBP, 3 months after FF surgery) in bisphosphonate-naïve patients. This retrospective population-based cohort study used data from Taiwan’s Health and Welfare Data Science Center (2004–2012). A total of 298,377 patients received surgeries for FF between 2006 and 2010; of them, 1209 (937 EIBP and 272 LIBP) received first-time bisphosphonates (oral alendronate, 70 mg, once a week). The incidence of second FF (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.509; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.352–0.735), second FF surgery (SHR = 0.452; 95% CI: 0.268–0.763), and adverse events (SHR = 0.728; 95% CI: 0.594–0.893) was significantly lower in the EIBP group than in the LIBP group. Our findings indicate that bisphosphonates should be initiated within 3 months after surgery for FF.

Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

BACKGROUND

Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments.

METHODS

We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings.

RESULTS

The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio-Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide a detailed description of redistribution methods developed for CoD data in the GBD; these methods represent an overall improvement in empiricism compared to past reliance on a priori knowledge.

Comparison of Long-Acting Injectable Antipsychotics With Oral Antipsychotics and Suicide and All-Cause Mortality in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Schizophrenia

IMPORTANCE

Schizophrenia is generally considered to be among the most severe psychiatric disorders because of the excessive mortality associated with it. Research to find means to reduce this excessive mortality is warranted.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations of long-acting injectable antipsychotics (LAIs) with all-cause, natural-cause, and suicide mortality risks as well as the impacts of early use of LAIs in patients with newly diagnosed schizophrenia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database to construct a population-based cohort of patients with schizophrenia who received oral antipsychotics (OAPs) from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2017. Within this cohort, the LAI group was defined as patients who switched to LAIs and were prescribed LAIs at least 4 times within 1 year. The LAI group was propensity matched 1:1 to patients who continued receiving OAPs of the same compounds. All patients were followed up until switching the antipsychotic administration route, death, or the end of the study (December 31, 2018), whichever occurred first. Data analysis was performed from January 2002 to December 2018.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

All-cause mortality, natural-cause mortality, suicide mortality, and suicide attempts.

RESULTS

In total, 2614 patients who switched to LAIs (median [interquartile range] {IQR} age, 30 [23-39] years) and 2614 who received OAPs (median [IQR] age, 30 [23-39] years) were included (1333 male patients [51.0%] in each group). During the 16-year follow-up period (median [IQR] follow-up of 14 [10-17] years), patients who switched to LAIs had lower risks of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.66; 95% CI, 0.54-0.81), natural-cause mortality (aHR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.52-0.76), and suicide attempts (incidence rate ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.55-0.93) compared with patients who received the corresponding OAPs. A 47% lower suicide mortality risk (aHR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.30-0.92) was observed in patients who switched to LAIs within the first 2 years of OAP initiation.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that LAI use in patients with newly diagnosed schizophrenia is associated with decreased all-cause mortality and suicide risk. Furthermore, early treatment with LAIs within the first 2 years of OAP initiation was associated with a decrease in suicide mortality risk. Thus, LAI use in the early stage of treatment should be actively considered for patients with newly diagnosed schizophrenia.

Adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with Behçet's disease: population-based registry linkage study in Taiwan

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the risks of adverse pregnancy outcomes in women with Behçet's disease (BD) METHODS: Data collected by the Taiwan National Health Insurance Administration between 2001 and 2012 was used for our study. A total of 2,350,339 pregnancies from the Taiwan National Health Insurance database and birth registry were identified. Maternal history of BD in women was ascertained. A comparison was made to determine whether BD increased the risk of health issues associated with pregnancy and fetal outcomes. Using an adjusted generalized estimating equation model, we estimated the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for fetal-neonatal and maternal outcomes.

RESULTS

There were 99 pregnancies in women with BD and 2,350,240 pregnancies in women without BD. The OR and 95% CI of puerperal cerebrovascular disorders were 12.08 (1.7-85.9), and those of gestational diabetes were 1.89 (1.1-3.25). Both were higher than the values in general pregnant women after adjusting for age, infant sex, urban residence, income, occupation, birth year, and Charlson Comorbidity Index. However, there were no adverse fetal outcomes in pregnant women with BD.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with BD have no significant risks of multiple complications except for puerperal cerebrovascular disease and gestational diabetes during pregnancy. Close monitoring of blood sugar is suggested. Furthermore, neonatal outcomes were not influenced by BD. Key Points • Patients with Behçet's disease are at a risk of puerperal cerebrovascular disease and gestational diabetes during pregnancy. • The odds ratio and 95% confidence interval for puerperal cerebrovascular disorders were 12.08 (1.7-85.9), and those for gestational diabetes were 1.89 (1.1-3.25). • Pregnant patients with Behçet's disease have no risks of neonatal outcomes.

A Nationwide Population-based Study From Taiwan Assessing the Influence of Preventable Hospitalization Rate on Mortality After Oncologic Surgery

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of a previously unassessed measure of quality-preventable hospitalization rate-on mortality after oncologic surgery for 4 procedures with established volume-outcome relationships. We hypothesize that hospitals with higher preventable hospitalization rates (indicating poor quality of primary care) have increased hospital mortality. Additionally, patients having surgery at hospitals with higher preventable hospitalization rates have increased mortality.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

Although different factors have been used to measure healthcare quality, most have not resulted in long-term hospital-based improvements in patient outcomes.

METHODS

We retrieved data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance database for patients who underwent surgery during 2001 to 2014 for esophagectomy, pancreatectomy, lung resection, or cystectomy. Preventable hospitalization rates assess hospitalizations for 11 chronic conditions that are deemed to be preventable with effective primary care. The outcome was 30-day surgical mortality. Identifiable factors potentially related to surgical mortality, including surgeon and hospital volume, were controlled for in the models.

RESULTS

Our dataset contained 35,081 patients who had surgery for one of the procedures. For all procedures, hospitals with high preventable hospitalization rates were associated with higher mortality rates (all P < 0.01). For esophagectomy, lung resection, and cystectomy, the adjusted odds of individual mortality increased by 8% to 10% (P < 0.01) for every 1% increase in the preventable hospitalization rate. For pancreatectomy, the adjusted odds of individual mortality increased by 21% for every 1% increase in preventable hospitalization rate when the rate was ≥8% (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Preventable hospitalization rates could serve as warning signs of low quality of care and be a publically-reported quality measure.

Early-onset prostate cancer is associated with increased risks of disease progression and cancer-specific mortality

OBJECTIVE

Prostate cancer (PCa) incidence has stabilized but not in patients at a young age. We assessed patient characteristics and disease progression in early-onset PCa.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 28,039 newly diagnosed PCa patients aged ≥35 years was constructed using the Taiwan Cancer Registry in 2008-2016. Patients were categorized by age at diagnosis (≤54, 55-59, 60-69, 70-74, and ≥75 years). The clinical stage at diagnosis, Gleason score, prostate-specific antigen level at diagnosis, Charlson's comorbidity index, and primary and secondary treatments for PCa were included in the analysis. All-cause mortality and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) were reported. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) estimating the risks of death and of receiving secondary cancer treatment were generated by Cox hazard models.

RESULTS

In patients aged ≤54, 55-59, and 60-69 years, about 60% of them in each group were classified into the high-risk, very high-risk, or metastatic group. However, young patients ≤54 years had a higher risk of PCSM than patients aged 60-69 years (HR = 1.22; 95% CI = 1.10-1.49). This trend of an increased risk in PCSM remained for high-risk, very high-risk, or metastatic patients (HR = 1.24; 95% CI = 1.01-1.51), but not in low- or intermediate-risk patients. Besides, young patients diagnosed with high-risk diseases had the highest risk of receiving secondary cancer treatment within 180 days after completing primary treatment among all age groups (HR = 1.32; 95% CI = 1.07-1.63).

CONCLUSIONS

PCa arising in young patients ≤54 years of age, especially those with a high risk or metastatic form, might be more aggressive than that in other age groups.

The effect of de-escalation of P2Y12 receptor inhibitor therapy after acute myocardial infarction in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A nationwide cohort study

To examine the effect of de-escalation of P2Y₁₂ inhibitor in dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and bleeding complications after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Taiwanese patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients who had received PCI during hospitalization for AMI (between 2013 and 2016) and were initially treated with aspirin and ticagrelor and without adverse events after 3 months of treatment were retrospectively evaluated. In total, 1,901 and 8,199 patients were identified as “de-escalated DAPT” (switched to aspirin and clopidogrel) and “unchanged DAPT” (continued on aspirin and ticagrelor) cohorts, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 8 months, the incidence rates (per 100 person-year) of death, AMI readmission and MACE were 2.89, 3.68, and 4.91 in the de-escalated cohort and 2.42, 3.28, and 4.72 in the unchanged cohort, respectively, based on an inverse probability of treatment weighted approach that adjusting for baseline characteristics of the patients. Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed the two groups had no significant differences in the hazard risk of death, AMI admission, and MACE. Additionally, there was no observed difference in the risk of bleeding, including major or clinically relevant non-major bleeding. The real-world data revealed that de-escalation of P2Y₁₂ inhibitor in DAPT was not associated with a higher risk of death or AMI readmission in Taiwanese patients with AMI undergoing successful PCI.

Nationwide trends in incidence, healthcare utilization, and mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients in Taiwan

AIMS

The objective of this study was to estimate the nationwide annual incidence, healthcare utilization, and mortality among hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients in Taiwan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

People aged 20 years or older and having been newly admitted for HF between 2010 and 2015 were identified from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database. For 124 816 patients with incident HF hospitalizations between 2010 and 2012, we further analysed their treatment patterns, healthcare utilizations, and mortality during index hospitalization and within 3 years following discharge from the index hospitalization. The age-stratified incidences were declined by 10-20% in people aged 55 years or older, but increased by ~4% among people younger than 44 years old between 2010 and 2015. For all incident hospitalized HF patients, the percentages of patients visiting the emergency room, were rehospitalized, and treated with guideline-directed medical therapy were highest in the first year. Approximately two-thirds of subsequent hospitalizations were due to non-HF and non-cardiovascular causes. The all-cause mortality rate during index hospitalization was 8.5%, whereas the mortality rates at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years following discharge were 3.5%, 8.9%, 14.4%, 22.5%, 33.9%, and 42.8%, respectively, for those surviving index HF hospitalization. Non-cardiovascular disease-related deaths accounted for nearly 60% of all deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals that, in contemporary Taiwan, the >10% annual mortality following the first year of hospitalization, 30% deaths occurring outside the hospital, and 60% non-cardiovascular-related deaths, along with the decreasing use of guideline-directed medical therapy, highlight sectors requiring more attention.

Impact of chronic kidney disease severity on causes of death after first-ever stroke: A population-based study using nationwide data linkage

BACKGROUND

Stroke is prevalent in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is associated with high mortality, but the causes of death after stroke among different CKD stages are not well known.

AIMS

We aimed to investigate whether the severity of CKD would impact on the causes of death after first-ever stroke.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter cohort study included stoke patients with CKD between 2007 and 2012. The cause of death and date of death were ascertained by linking the National Death Registry Database of Taiwan. Clinical outcomes, 1-month, and 1-year mortality rates, and major causes of death were compared according to five CKD stages (G1 to G5) in the ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke separately.

RESULTS

Of these patients, 9,878 were first-ever ischemic stroke (IS) patients, and 1,387 were first-ever hemorrhagic stroke (HS) patients. Patients with CKD G5 had the highest one-year mortality rate with hazard ratio 5.28 [95%CI, 3.94-7.08] in IS and 3.03 [95%CI, 2.03-4.54] in HS when compared to G1 patients. Leading causes of one-year death after IS were stroke, cancer, and pneumonia in early (G1-3) CKD patients, while diabetes mellitus, CKD, and stroke itself contributed to the major mortality in CKD G5 patients. An inverse association between eGFR decrement and the proportion of deaths caused by stroke itself was observed in CKD G2-5 patients after IS. Stroke was the leading cause of one-year death among all CKD patients after HS.

CONCLUSIONS

Asides from high mortality, late-stage CKD patients had different causes of death from early CKD patients after stroke. This study highlights the need to imply different treatment strategies in late-stage CKD post-stroke patients to improve their prognosis.

Association of advance care planning with place of death and utilisation of life-sustaining treatments in deceased patients at Taipei City Hospital in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE

Evidence is mixed regarding the impact of advance care planning (ACP) on place of death. This cohort study investigated the effect of ACP programmes on place of death and utilisation of life-sustaining treatments for patients during end-of-life (EOL) care.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study identified deceased patients between 2015 and 2016 at Taipei City Hospital. ACP was determined by patients' medical records and defined as a process to discuss patients' preferences with respect to EOL treatments and place of death. Place of death included hospital or home death. Stepwise logistic regression determined the association of ACP with place of death and utilisation of life-sustaining treatments during EOL care.

RESULTS

Of the 3196 deceased patients, the overall mean age was 78.6 years, and 46.5% of the subjects had an ACP communication with healthcare providers before death. During the study follow-up period, 166 individuals died at home, including 98 (6.59%) patients with ACP and 68 (3.98%) patients without ACP. After adjusting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities, patients with ACP were more likely to die at home during EOL care (adjusted OR (AOR)=1.71, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.35). Moreover, patients with ACP were less likely to receive cardiopulmonary resuscitation (AOR 0.36, 95% CI 0.25 to 0.51) as well as intubation and mechanical ventilation support (AOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.67) during the last 3 months of life.

CONCLUSION

Patients with ACP were more likely to die at home and less likely to receive life-sustaining treatments during EOL care.

Associations Between Physician Supply Levels and Amenable Mortality Rates: An Analysis of Taiwan Over Nearly 4 Decades

Access to health care is an important determinant of health, but it remains unclear whether having more physicians reduces mortality. In this study, we used Taiwan’s population-level National Death Certification Registry data to investigate whether a greater supply of physicians is associated with lower rates of amenable mortality, defined as deaths that can be delayed with appropriate and timely medical treatment. Our baseline regression analysis adjusting only for age and sex shows that an increase in the number of physicians per 1000 is associated with a reduction of 1.7 (P < .01) and 0.97 (P < .01) age-standardized deaths per 100 000 for men and women, respectively. However, in our full analyses that control for socioeconomic factors and Taiwan’s health insurance expansion, we find that physician supply is no longer statistically associated with amenable mortality rates. Nevertheless, we found that greater physician supply levels are associated with a reduction in deaths from ischemic heart disease (−0.13 (P < .05) for men, and −0.066 (P < .05) for women). These findings suggest that overall, physician supply is not associated with amenable mortality rates after controlling for socioeconomic factors but may help reduce amenable mortality rates in specific causes of death.

Type of Androgen Deprivation Therapy and Risk of Dementia Among Patients With Prostate Cancer in Taiwan

IMPORTANCE

It remains unclear whether androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is associated with subsequent dementia risk in patients with prostate cancer. There are limited data regarding dementia risk across ADT types.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association between all-cause dementia, including Alzheimer disease (AD), and different ADT types in patients with prostate cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study used linked data from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry, the National Health Insurance Research Database, and the Taiwan National Death Registry. A cohort of 23 651 patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015, was identified and followed up from 1 year after diagnosis until December 31, 2017. Data analysis was performed between January 2019 and May 2020.

EXPOSURES

Patients who received and did not receive ADT, including gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonists, orchiectomy, or antiandrogen monotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were all-cause dementia or AD. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to balance baseline covariates. The association between dementia and various ADT types was examined using the Cox proportional hazards model. Furthermore, a multivariate Cox proportional model with age as the time scale was conducted for complementary comparison.

RESULTS

In the cohort of 23 651 male patients (median [interquartile range] age, 73 [66-79] years), 6904 (29.2%) did not receive ADT, 11 817 (50.0%) received GnRH agonists, 876 (3.7%) received orchiectomy, and 4054 (17.1%) received antiandrogen monotherapy. Overall, 1525 patients were diagnosed with incident dementia (1.72 per 100 person-years) during a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.46 (1.92-5.51) years. Compared with those who did not receive ADT, those using antiandrogen monotherapy showed an increased risk of dementia (weighted hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16-1.55) and AD (weighted HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.13-2.04). The risk of dementia was similar between GnRH agonist use or orchiectomy and no ADT use (GnRH agonist: weighted HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00-1.28; orchiectomy: 1.00; 95% CI, 0.74-1.37). Several sensitivity analyses revealed consistent findings for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the use of antiandrogen monotherapy was associated with increased risk of dementia or AD, while GnRH agonist use and orchiectomy had no significant difference compared with patients who did not receive ADT. Further prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.

Association of HIV Infection and Antiretroviral Therapy With Sudden Cardiac Death

BACKGROUND

HIV infection potentially increases coronary artery disease and heart failure risks. However, the association between HIV infection and sudden cardiac death (SCD) has not been extensively studied. This nationwide cohort study aimed to determine SCD risks in Taiwanese patients with and without HIV infection.

METHODS

Adult people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) since January 1, 2003, were identified from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control HIV surveillance system. HIV-infected individuals were defined as positive HIV-1 Western blot. A control cohort without HIV infection, matched for age and sex, was selected for comparison from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. All patients were followed up until SCD, mortality for another cause, or till December 31, 2014. A time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the association of HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) with SCD.

RESULTS

During a mean 5.86-year follow-up, 5342 (4.40%) of 121,530 patients (24,306 PLWHA and 97,224 matched controls) died; among them, 150 (0.12%) died of SCD. Among 150 SCD events, 97 (64.7%) and 53 (33.3%) occurred in PLWHA and controls, respectively, which corresponded to incidences of 68.31 in PLWHA and 9.31 per 100,000 person-years in controls (P < 0.001). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, HIV infection was an independent risk factor for SCD (adjusted hazard ratio, 8.15; 95% confidence interval: 5.58 to 11.90). SCD incidence was significantly lower in PLWHA receiving ART (adjusted hazard ratio 0.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.32 to 0.87).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV infection is an independent risk factor for SCD. SCD rates are low in PLWHA receiving ART.

Early palliative care: the surprise question and the palliative care screening tool-better together

OBJECTIVE

The 'surprise question' (SQ) and the palliative care screening tool (PCST) are the common assessment tools in the early identification of patients requiring palliative care. However, the comparison of their prognostic accuracies has not been extensively studied. This study aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of SQ and PCST in terms of recognising patients nearing end of life (EOL) and those appropriate for palliative care.

METHODS

This prospective study used both the SQ and PCST to predict patients' 12-month mortality and identified those appropriate for palliative care. All adult patients admitted to Taipei City Hospital in 2015 were included in this cohort study. The c-statistic value was calculated to indicate the predictive accuracies of the SQ and PCST.

RESULTS

Out of 21 109 patients, with a mean age of 62.8 years, 12.4% and 11.1% had a SQ response of 'no' and a PCST score of ≥4, respectively. After controlling for other covariates, an SQ response of 'no' and a PCST score of ≥4 were the independent predictors of 12-month mortality. The c-statistic values of the SQ and PCST at recognising patients in their last year of life were 0.680 and 0.689, respectively. When using a combination of both SQ and PCST in predicting patients' 12-month mortality risk, the predictive value of the c-statistic increased to 0.739 and was significantly higher than either one in isolation (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

A combination of the SQ with PCST has better prognostic accuracy than either one in isolation.

A Nationwide Study Assessing Preventable Hospitalization Rate on Mortality After Major Cardiovascular Surgery

Despite the use of various factors to measure hospital quality, most measures have not resulted in long-term improvements in patient outcomes. This study's purpose is to determine the effect of a previously unassessed measure of quality of care-a hospital's preventable hospitalization rate-on 30-day mortality at both the hospital and individual levels after three major cardiovascular surgery procedures. This is a population-based study using Taiwan's National Health Insurance database. We retrieved data from 2001 to 2014 for patients who had undergone abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, coronary artery bypass graft, or aortic valve replacement (AVR). Preventable hospitalizations are hospitalizations for 11 chronic conditions that are considered preventable with effective primary care. The outcome was 30-day surgical mortality. Our dataset contained 65,863 patients who had undergone surgery for one of the three cardiovascular procedures. Preventable hospitalization rate was significantly associated with higher hospital mortality rates for all procedures. At the patient level, the adjusted odds of mortality after AAA repair were increased 55% (P < 0.01) for every 2% increase in the preventable hospitalization rate. For coronary artery bypass graft, preventable hospitalization was not a significant predictor of mortality, but rather patient factors and surgeon factors were significant. For AVR, the adjusted odds of mortality were increased 7% (P < 0.01) for every 1% increase in preventable hospitalization rate. High preventable hospitalization rate may serve as a hospital quality measure that could signal increased odds of mortality for selected cardiovascular procedures, especially for higher risk-lower volume procedures such as AAA repair and AVR.

An Interventional Study for the Early Identification of Patients With Palliative Care Needs and the Promotion of Advance Care Planning and Advance Directives

CONTEXT

Programs identifying patients needing palliative care and promoting advance care planning (ACP) are rare in Asia.

OBJECTIVES

This interventional cohort study aimed to identify hospitalized patients with palliative care needs using a validated palliative care screening tool (PCST), examine the ability of the PCST to predict mortality, and explore effects of a pragmatic ACP program targeted by PCST on the utilization of life-sustaining treatment during the last three months of life.

METHODS

In this prospective study, we used PCST to evaluate patients' palliative care needs between 2015 and 2016 and followed patients for three months. ACP with advance directives (ADs) was systematically offered to all patients with PCST score ≥4.

RESULTS

Of 47,153 hospitalized patients, 10.4% had PCST score ≥4. During follow-up, 2121 individuals died within three months of palliative care screening: 1225 (25.0%) with PCST score ≥4 and 896 (2.1%) with PCST score <4. After controlling for covariates, PCST score ≥4 was significantly associated with a higher mortality within three months of screening (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 6.86; 95% CI 6.16-7.63). Moreover, ACP consultation (AOR 0.78; 95% CI 0.66-0.92) and AD completion (AOR 0.49; 95% CI 0.36-0.65) were associated with a lower likelihood of receiving life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated the feasibility of implementing a comprehensive palliative care program to identify patients with palliative care needs and promote ACP and AD in Eastern Asia. ACP consultation and AD completion were associated with reduced utilization of life-sustaining treatments during the last three months of life.

Risk of head and neck cancer after chronic pancreatitis

Background

To evaluate the relation of head and neck cancer to chronic pancreatitis by analyzing Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database.

Methods

We identified 11,237 patients with chronic pancreatitis as the case cohort, which was propensity score matched with another 11,237 patients without chronic pancreatitis by sex, age, index year, and comorbidities. We followed both cohorts between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2011 to measure the incidence of head and neck cancer.

Results

Compared with patients without chronic pancreatitis, those with chronic pancreatitis were associated a greater risk of head and neck cancer [adjusted HR (aHR) =1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07–1.60] and had a higher incidence of head and neck cancer (log-rank test, P<0.001). The experimental event rate of head and neck cancer for the chronic pancreatitis cohort was 1.90% (213/11,237) and control event rate of head and neck cancer for the non-chronic pancreatitis cohort was 1.60% (180/11,237), respectively. Therefore, the chronic pancreatitis cohort had a 0.30% of absolute risk increase and approximately 333 of number needed to harm for the development of head and neck cancer, respectively. Compared with the individuals without chronic pancreatitis and any other comorbidity, the risk of head and neck cancer for the chronic pancreatitis patients without comorbidities was 2.79 folds and the risk increased to 4.32, 3.33, 3.22, 4.44, and 5.78 folds in the presence of any one, any two, any three, any four, and more than five comorbidities, respectively.

Conclusions

Chronic pancreatitis is related to an increased risk of head and neck cancer, and the presence of comorbidity increases the risk more. It requires more studies to find more co-existing risk factors or comorbidities to recommend a screening program for the CP patients. Moreover, it needs more studies to ascertain the pathogenesis for the aforementioned association and the limited knowledge of the patients' smoking habits and alcohol drinking is the major limitation of this observational study.

Postdiagnostic metformin use and survival of patients with colorectal cancer: A Nationwide cohort study

Epidemiological evidence for the association between postdiagnostic metformin use and survival in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains limited. Using the Taiwan Cancer Registry database, a cohort of 16,676 diabetic patients newly diagnosed with CRC from January 1, 2004 through December 31, 2014, followed until December 31, 2016, was identified. Postdiagnostic use of metformin (two or more prescriptions after CRC diagnosis) was defined as a time-dependent covariate with 6-month lag. Multivariate Cox regression model and stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) were used to estimate adjusted effects of metformin on all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality during follow-up. A number of 11,438 (69%) received metformin after CRC diagnosis. Overall, 7,393 deaths, including 4,845 CRC-specific deaths, were observed during 64,322 person-years of follow-up. After adjustment for demographic and clinical covariates, metformin users had lower all-cause mortality than did nonusers (hazard ratio [HR], 0.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.44) and lower CRC-specific mortality (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.39-0.44). Similar but somewhat attenuated effects were observed after stabilized IPTW (HR for all-cause mortality, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.53-0.59; HR for CRC-specific mortality, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.55-0.61). Similar results were observed in stratified analyses of 2,112 patients with no prediagnostic metformin use and 14,564 patients with prediagnostic metformin use. Findings for both outcomes were consistent in multiple sensitivity analyses. Use of postdiagnostic metformin was associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality and CRC-specific mortality, regardless of prior metformin use. These findings support the use of metformin as an adjunct to standard care of diabetic patients with CRC.

The presence of ectopic atrial rhythm predicts adverse cardiovascular outcomes in a large hospital-based population

BACKGROUND

Whether ectopic atrial rhythm (EAR) is a high-risk cardiovascular phenotype (eg, the manifestation of a diseased sinoatrial node) or just a benign accelerated ectopic pacemaker remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to analyze the cardiovascular outcomes and underlying mechanisms in patients with EAR.

METHODS

From a 12-lead electrocardiogram hospital-based electrocardiogram database, a total of 2896 adults with EAR were propensity score matched at 1:5 with 14,480 patients with sinus rhythm (SR). Patients were retrospectively followed up for cardiovascular mortality (the primary outcome) and permanent pacemaker implantation (the secondary outcome). Heart rate variability was analyzed to compare autonomic function between patients with EAR and those with SR.

RESULTS

The prevalence of EAR was 1.13%, which increased with age. Compared with the matched patients, those with EAR had a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.93; 95% confidence interval 1.52-2.44; P < .0001) and permanent pacemaker implantation (adjusted hazard ratio 5.94; 95% confidence interval 3.89-9.09; P < .0001) according to the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The risk of cardiovascular mortality was similar across the subgroups on the basis of age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, and chronic kidney diseases. In patients with EAR, the low frequency/high frequency and standard deviation of the mean normal-to-normal intervals/root mean square of successive RR interval differences ratios for heart rate variability were both lower than those in patients with SR. This implied autonomic imbalance in patients with EAR.

CONCLUSION

Patients with EAR have a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality and permanent pacemaker implantation, which was associated with autonomic imbalance.

Pregnancy outcomes and perinatal complications of Asian mothers with juvenile idiopathic arthritis - a case-control registry study

BACKGROUNDS

In order to provide juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients with better pre-conceptional and prenatal counselling, we investigated the obstetrical and neonatal outcomes among women with Asian descent.

METHODS

Through the linkage of Taiwan National Health Insurance database and National Birth Registry, we established a population-based birth cohort in Taiwan between 2004 and 2014. In a case control study design, first children born to mothers with JIA are identified and matched with 5 non-JIA controls by maternal age and birth year. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios for maternal and neonatal outcomes crude and with adjustment.

RESULTS

Of the 2,100,143 newborn, 778 (0.037%) were born to JIA mothers. Among them, 549 first-born children were included in this research. Our result suggested that babies born to mothers with JIA were more likely to have low birth body weight, with an adjusted OR of 1.35(95% CI: 1.02 to 1.79) when compared to babies born to mothers without. No differences were observed in other perinatal complications between women with and without JIA including stillbirth, prematurity, or small for gestational age. The rate of adverse obstetrical outcomes such as caesarean delivery, preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, postpartum hemorrhage and mortality were also similar between the two.

CONCLUSIONS

Adverse obstetrical and neonatal outcomes were limited among Asian mothers with JIA. Intensive care may not be necessary for JIA mothers and their newborns.

How large should a cause of death be in order to be included in mortality trend analysis? Deriving a cut-off point from retrospective trend analyses in 21 European countries

OBJECTIVES

The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) distinguishes a large number of causes of death (CODs) that could each be studied individually when monitoring time-trends. We aimed to develop recommendations for using the size of CODs as a criterion for their inclusion in long-term trend analysis.

DESIGN

Retrospective trend analysis.

SETTING

21 European countries of the WHO Mortality Database.

PARTICIPANTS

Deaths from CODs (3-position ICD-10 codes) with ≥5 average annual deaths in a 15-year period between 2000 and 2016.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Fitting polynomial regression models, we examined for each COD in each country whether or not changes over time were statistically significant (with α=0.05) and we assessed correlates of this outcome. Applying receiver operating characteristicROC curve diagnostics, we derived COD size thresholds for selecting CODs for trends analysis.

RESULTS

Across all countries, 64.0% of CODs had significant long-term trends. The odds of having a significant trend increased by 18% for every 10% increase of COD size. The independent effect of country was negligible. As compared to circulatory system diseases, the probability of a significant trend was lower for neoplasms and digestive system diseases, and higher for infectious diseases, mental diseases and signs-and-symptoms. We derived a general threshold of around 30 (range: 28-33) annual deaths for inclusion of a COD in trend analysis. The relevant threshold for neoplasms was around 65 (range: 61-70) and for infectious diseases was 20 (range: 19-20).

CONCLUSIONS

The likelihood that long-term trends are detected with statistical significance is strongly related to COD size and varies between ICD-10 chapters, but has no independent relation to country. We recommend a general size criterion of 30 annual deaths to select CODs for long-term mortality-trends analysis in European countries.

Influence of Baseline Cardiovascular Comorbidities on Mortality after Androgen Deprivation Therapy for Metastatic Prostate Cancer

Few studies have assessed the benefits of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in men with metastatic prostate cancer (PC; mPC) at an old age or with major cardiovascular conditions. A retrospective cohort consisted of 3835 men with newly diagnosed mPC from the Taiwan Cancer Registry of 2008–2014. Among them, 2692 patients received only ADT in the first year after the cancer diagnosis, and 1143 patients were on watchful waiting. The inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox model was used to estimate the effects of ADT on all-cause mortality and PC-specific mortality according to age, and the status of congestive heart failure (CHF), coronary arterial diseases (CADs), and stroke at the baseline. After a median follow-up of 2.65 years, 1650 men had died. ADT was associated with a 17–22% risk reduction in all-cause and PC-specific mortality in men without stroke, CAD, or CHF in the 65–79-year group. The survival benefit diminished in men with any of these preexisting conditions. In contrast, ADT was not found to be associated with any survival benefit in the ≥80-year group, even though they did not present with any major cardiovascular disease at the baseline. Patients who had CHF, CAD, or stroke at the baseline did not show a survival benefit following ADT in any of the age groups. Men who have preexisting major cardiovascular diseases or are ≥80 years do not demonstrate a survival benefit from ADT for mPC. The risk–benefit ratio should be considered when using ADT for mPC in older men especially those with major cardiovascular comorbidities.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Increases the Risk of Incident Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Although the HIV can cause myocardial inflammation, the association of HIV infection with subsequent development of heart failure (HF) has not been extensively studied. This nationwide cohort study aimed to determine the risk of incident HF in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA).

METHODS

We identified PLWHA using the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control and Prevention HIV Surveillance System. An age- and sex-matched control group without HIV infection was selected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database for comparison. All patients were followed up until December 2014 and were observed for a new diagnosis of HF. A time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine the association of HIV and highly active antiretroviral therapy with incident HF, with death as a competing risk event.

RESULTS

Of the 120,765 patients (24,153 PLWHA and 96,612 matched controls), 641 (0.53%) had incident HF during a mean follow-up period of 5.84 years, including 192 (0.79%) PLWHA and 449 (0.46%) controls. Time to diagnosis of incident HF was significantly shorter in PLWHA than in those without HIV infection (P < 0.001, the log-rank test). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, HIV infection was found to be an independent risk factor for incident HF (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.52; 95% confidence interval: 1.27 to 1.82). As the duration of highly active antiretroviral therapy increased, the risk of HF decreased (P = 0.014).

CONCLUSIONS

HIV infection was an independent risk factor for incident HF. Clinicians need to be aware of the higher risk of HF in PLWHA.

Tumor progression-dependent angiogenesis in gastric cancer and its potential application

Despite improvements in the early diagnosis, prognosis and therapeutic strategies for gastric cancer (GC), human GC remains one of the most frequently diagnosed malignant tumors in the world, and the survival rate of GC patients remains very poor. Thus, a suitable therapeutic strategy for GC is important for prolonging survival. Both tumor cells themselves and the tumor microenvironment play an important role in tumorigenesis, including angiogenesis, inflammation, immunosuppression and metastasis. Importantly, these cells contribute to gastric carcinogenesis by altering the angiogenic phenotype switch. The development, relapse and spreading of tumors depend on new vessels that provide the nutrition, growth factors and oxygen required for continuous tumor growth. Therefore, a state of tumor dormancy could be induced by blocking tumor-associated angiogenesis. Recently, several antiangiogenic agents have been identified, and their potential for the clinical management of GC has been tested. Here, we provide an up-to-date summary of angiogenesis and the angiogenic factors associated with tumor progression in GC. We also review antiangiogenic agents with a focus on the anti-vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)-mediated pathway for endothelial cell growth and their angiogenesis ability in GC. However, most antiangiogenic agents have reported no benefit to overall survival (OS) compared to chemotherapy alone in local or advanced GC. In phase III clinical trials, only ramucirumab (anti-VEGFR blocker) and apatinib (VEGFR-TKI blocker) have reported an improved median overall response rate and prolonged OS and progression-free survival outcomes as a 2nd-line agent combined with chemotherapy treatment in advanced GC. By providing insights into the molecular mechanisms of angiogenesis associated with tumor progression in GC, this review will hopefully aid the optimization of antiangiogenesis strategies for GC therapy in combination with chemotherapy and adjuvant treatment.

Loss of Life Expectancy by 10 Years or More From Elevated Aspartate Aminotransferase: Finding Aspartate Aminotransferase a Better Mortality Predictor for All-Cause and Liver-Related than Alanine Aminotransferase

OBJECTIVES

Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) are 2 commonly ordered liver function tests, and ALT has long been considered more liver-specific than AST. Between the 2, the one which is better in predicting liver or non-liver-related mortality remains unsettled.

METHODS

The cohort, 416,122 adults, came from a self-paying comprehensive health surveillance program during 1994-2008 and was followed up till 2008. Mortality came from National Death Index, with 10,412 deaths identified. Hazard ratios (HRs), computed by Cox model, and life expectancy, by life table method, were presented for 5 levels of AST and ALT with elevated AST or ALT defined as ≥40 IU/L. Liver disease included liver cancer and other liver conditions.

RESULTS

There were 3 times more elevated ALT (15.4%) than AST (5.7%). However, those with elevated AST had higher mortality for all-cause (HR = 2.44), for liver disease (HR = 27.2), and for liver cancer (HR = 47.6) than its ALT counterparts (HR = 1.69, 10.8, and 20.2, respectively). Elevated AST also lost more years of life expectancy (10.2) than those lost by ALT (5.2) and larger than most common risks. Elevated AST had increased mortality from all cancers (HR = 3.57), stroke (HR = 1.36), respiratory diseases (HR = 1.34), and injuries (HR = 1.82), other than just liver disease. All-cause mortality remained significantly increased, when high risk groups were excluded, such as frequent drinkers, hepatitis carriers, those died from nonmedical conditions, those died in the first 3 years, or advanced fibrosis index based on 4 factors or aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index. Results were consistent between those returned for second visits and those analyzed in initial visits.

DISCUSSION

Those with elevated AST (≥40 IU/L) had life expectancy cut short by 10.2 years, doubled the number of years lost with elevated ALT. For all-cause and for liver-related mortality, AST was an important predictor, better than ALT.