Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond

Flexibility of little auks foraging in various oceanographic features in a changing Arctic

Using GPS-tracked individuals, we compared foraging ecology and reproductive output of a High-Arctic zooplanktivorous seabird, the little auk Alle alle, between three years differing in environmental conditions (sea surface temperature). Despite contrasting environmental conditions, average foraging fights distance and duration were generally similar in all studied years. Also, in all years foraging locations visited by the little auk parents during short trips (ST, for chick provisioning) were significantly closer to the colony compared to those visited during long trips (LTs, mainly for adults’ self-maintenance). Nevertheless, we also found some differences in the little auk foraging behaviour: duration of LTs was the longest in the coldest year suggesting more time for resting for adults compared to warmer years. Besides, birds foraged closer to the colony and in significantly colder water in the coldest year. Interestingly, these differences did not affect chick diet: in all the years, the energy content of food loads was similar, with the Arctic copepod, Calanus glacialis copepodite stage V being the most preferred prey item (>73% of items by number and >67% by energy content). Also chick survival was similar in all the study years. However, when examining chicks growth rate we found that their peak body mass was lower in warmer years suggesting that overall conditions in the two warm years were less favourable. While our results, demonstrate a great foraging flexibility by little auks, they also point out their vulnerability to changing environmental conditions.

The 2015-2016 El Niño increased infection parameters of copepods on Eastern Tropical Pacific dolphinfish populations

The oceanographic conditions of the Pacific Ocean are largely modified by El Niño (EN), affecting several ecological processes. Parasites and other marine organisms respond to environmental variation, but the influence of the EN cycle on the seasonal variation of parasitic copepods has not been yet evaluated. We analysed the relation between infection parameters (prevalence and mean intensity) of the widespread parasitic copepods Caligus bonito and Charopinopsis quaternia in the dolphinfish Coryphaena hippurus and oceanography during the strong 2015–16 EN. Fish were collected from capture fisheries on the Ecuadorian coast (Tropical Eastern Pacific) over a 2-year period. Variations of sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, chlorophyll a (Chl-a), Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), total host length (TL) and monthly infection parameters of both copepod species were analysed using time series and cross-correlations. We used the generalised additive models for determine the relationship between environmental variables and infection parameters. The total body length of the ovigerous females and the length of the eggs of C. bonito were measured in both periods. Infection parameters of both C. bonito and Ch. quaternia showed seasonal and annual patterns associated with the variation of environmental variables examined (SST, salinity, Chl-a and ONI 1+2). Infection parameters of both copepod species were significantly correlated with ONI 1+2, SST, TL and Chl-a throughout the GAMLSS model, and the explained deviance contribution ranged from 16%-36%. Our results suggest than an anomaly higher than +0.5°C triggers a risen in infection parameters of both parasitic copepods. This risen could be related to increases in egg length, female numbers and the total length of the ovigerous females in EN period. This study provides the first evidence showing that tropical parasitic copepods are sensitive to the influence of EN event, especially from SST variations. The observed behaviour of parasitic copepods likely affects the host populations and structure of the marine ecosystem at different scales.

Normalized difference vegetation index, temperature and age affect faecal thyroid hormone concentrations in free-ranging African elephants

Conservation biologists can use hormone measurements to assess animals' welfare, reproductive state, susceptibility to stressors, as well as energy expenditure. Quantifying hormone concentrations from faecal samples is particularly advantageous as samples can be collected without disturbing animals' behaviour. In order for an endocrine marker to be useful for wildlife managers, we need to understand how extrinsic and intrinsic factors affect hormone concentrations in free-ranging animal populations. Thyroid hormones are linked to basal metabolic rate and energy expenditure. Previous research demonstrated that triiodothyronine (T3) can be measured successfully in faecal matter of African elephants, Loxodonta africana. However, to our knowledge, research into factors affecting changes in elephant T3 levels has only been carried out in captive elephants so far. Thus, we present the first study of faecal T3 metabolite (mT3) concentrations of a large population of free-ranging African elephants. Over 15 months, we collected faecal samples from identified (n = 43 samples) and unidentified (n = 145 samples) individuals in Madikwe Game Reserve, South Africa. We investigated whether vegetative productivity [normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)] in interaction with mean monthly temperature, age and sex affected mT3 concentrations. We found a significant negative interaction effect of NDVI and temperature. Increasing NDVI was related to higher concentrations of mT3, but increasing temperature was related to a decrease in mT3 concentrations in individually identified and unidentified elephants. In unidentified individuals, juvenile elephants had significantly higher mT3 concentrations compared to adult elephants. Faecal T3 can successfully be quantified in samples from free-ranging elephant populations and thus provides insight into energy expenditure in large herbivores.

Cohort antler size signals environmental stress in a moderate climate

Research in northern latitudes confirms that climate teleconnections exert important influences on ungulate fitness, but studies from regions with milder climates are lacking. We explored the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on male, 2.5-year-old white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) antler and body mass in Mississippi, USA, a region with mild winters and warm, humid summers. Explanatory variables were seasonal averages of each climate index extending back to 3 years prior to account for possible maternal and lag effects. Seasonal climate indices from the period of gestation and the first year of life were correlated with deer morphometrics. Reduced antler mass was largely correlated (R² = 0.52) with PDO values indicating dry conditions during parturition and neonatal development and NAO values indicating warmer than normal winters during gestation and the first year of life. Body mass was less correlated (R² = 0.16) to climate indices, responding negatively to warmer winter weather during the first winter of life. Climate may promote variable fitness among cohorts through long-term effects on male competition for dominance and breeding access. Because broad-scale climate indices simplify complex weather systems, they may benefit management at larger scales. Although this study compared climate with morphological variables, it is likely that demographic characteristics can likewise be modeled using climate indices. As climate change in this region is projected to include greater variability in summer precipitation, we may see concomitantly greater variability in fitness among cohorts of white-tailed deer.

Climatic variation in Africa and Europe has combined effects on timing of spring migration in a long-distance migrant Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus

Background

The arrival of many species of migrant passerine in the European spring has shifted earlier over recent decades, attributed to climate change and rising temperatures in Europe and west Africa. Few studies have shown the effects of climate change in both hemispheres though many long-distance migrants use wintering grounds which span Africa. The migrants’ arrival in Europe thus potentially reflects a combination of the conditions they experience across Africa. We examine if the timing of spring migration of a long-distance migrant, the Willow Warbler, is related to large-scale climate indices across Africa and Europe.

Methods

Using data from daily mistnetting from 1 April to 15 May in 1982–2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we developed an Annual Anomaly metric (AA, in days) to estimate how early or late Willow Warblers arrive each spring in relation to their multi-year average pattern. The Willow Warblers’ spring passage advanced by 5.4 days over the 36 years. We modelled AA using 14 potential explanatory variables in multiple regression models. The variables were the calendar year and 13 large-scale indices of climate in Africa and Europe averaged over biologically meaningful periods of two to four months during the year before spring migration.

Results

The best model explained 59% of the variation in AA with seven variables: Northern Atlantic Oscillation (two periods), Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index, Sahel Precipitation Anomaly, Scandinavian Index and local mean temperatures. The study also confirmed that a long-term trend for Willow Warblers to arrive earlier in spring continued up to 2017.

Discussion

Our results suggest that the timing of Willow Warbler spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast is related to a summation of the ecological conditions they had encountered over the previous year during breeding, migration south, wintering in Africa and migration north. We suggest these large-scale climate indices reflect ecological drivers for phenological changes in species with complex migration patterns and discuss the ways in which each of the seven climate indices could be related to spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast.

The changing physical and ecological meanings of North Pacific Ocean climate indices

Climate change is likely to change the relationships between commonly used climate indices and underlying patterns of climate variability, but this complexity is rarely considered in studies using climate indices. Here, we show that the physical and ecological conditions mapping onto the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index have changed over multidecadal timescales. These changes apparently began around a 1988/1989 North Pacific climate shift that was marked by abrupt northeast Pacific warming, declining temporal variance in the Aleutian Low (a leading atmospheric driver of the PDO), and increasing correlation between the PDO and NPGO patterns. Sea level pressure and surface temperature patterns associated with each climate index changed after 1988/1989, indicating that identical index values reflect different states of basin-scale climate over time. The PDO and NPGO also show time-dependent skill as indices of regional northeast Pacific ecosystem variability. Since the late 1980s, both indices have become less relevant to physical-ecological variability in regional ecosystems from the Bering Sea to the southern California Current. Users of these climate indices should be aware of nonstationary relationships with underlying climate variability within the historical record, and the potential for further nonstationarity with ongoing climate change.

Amphibian and reptile phenology: the end of the warming hiatus and the influence of the NAO in the North Mediterranean

In the south of France, the so-called climate hiatus from 1998 to 2013 was associated with a late winter cooling which has affected the phenology of several reptiles and amphibian species, delaying their dates of first appearances in spring. This episode has been related to a period of frequently negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO_i). The recent increase of this index after this episode marks the end of the "hiatus" and provides an opportunity to verify the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the fauna of the North Mediterranean region. Most of the emergence dates of amphibians and reptiles in spring have rapidly advanced from 1983 to 1997 and then receded or stabilized from 1998 to 2010. They began to advance again since 2010. These phenological changes covary with the temperature of February-March in the study area, which is itself related to the variations of the NAO index. These changes confirm the influence of the NAO on the phenology of terrestrial organisms in northern Mediterranean where its influence is sometimes assumed to be attenuated.

Droughts and climate warming desynchronize Black pine growth across the Mediterranean Basin

The effects of climate change on forest growth are not homogeneous across tree species distribution ranges because of inter-population variability and spatial heterogeneity. Although latitudinal and thermal gradients in growth patterns have been widely investigated, changes in these patterns along longitudinal gradients due to the different timing and severity of regional droughts are less studied. Here, we investigated these responses in Mediterranean Black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.). We built a tree-ring width dataset comprising 77 forests (1202 trees) across the Mediterranean Basin. The biogeographical patterns in growth patterns and the relationships between growth and mean temperature, precipitation, drought and atmospheric circulations patterns (NAO -North Atlantic Oscillation-, SOI -Southern Oscillation Index- and MOI -Mediterranean Oscillation index-) were analyzed. Then, we evaluated the spatial and temporal growth synchrony between and within east and west populations. We found different growth and climate patterns in west vs. east Black pine populations, although in both regions growth was driven by similar temperature and precipitation variables. MOI significantly influenced tree growth, whilst NAO and SOI showed weaker effects. Growth of east and west Black pine populations desynchronized after the 1970s when several and uncoupled regional droughts occurred across the Mediterranean Basin. We detected a climate shift from the 1970s to the 1980s affecting growth patterns, changing growth-climate relationships, and reducing forest growth from west to east Black pine forests. Afterwards, climate and growth of east and west populations became increasingly more divergent. Our findings imply that integral bioclimatic and biogeographical analyses across the species distribution area must be considered to adequately assess the impact of climate change on tree growth under warming and more arid conditions.

Cumulative weather effects can impact across the whole life cycle

Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment-demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age-sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well-studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large-scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM-FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.

Climate Prediction of Satellite-Based Spring Eurasian Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Coupled Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Patterns

Satellite-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data are widely used for estimating vegetation greenness. Seasonal climate predictions of spring (April–May–June) NDVI over Eurasia are explored by applying the year-to-year increment approach. The prediction models were developed based on the coupled modes of singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses between Eurasian NDVI and climate factors. One synchronous predictor, the spring surface air temperature from the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (SAT-CFS), and three previous-season predictors (winter (December–January–February) sea-ice cover over the Barents Sea (SICBS), winter sea surface temperature over the equatorial Pacific (SSTP), and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were chosen to develop four single-predictor schemes: the SAT-CFS scheme, SICBS scheme, SSTP scheme, and NAO scheme. Meanwhile, a statistical scheme that involves the three previous-season predictors (i.e., SICBS, SSTP, and NAO) and a hybrid scheme that includes all four predictors are also proposed. To evaluate the prediction skills of the schemes, one-year-out cross-validation and independent hindcast results are analyzed, revealing the hybrid scheme as having the best prediction skill. The results indicate that the temporal correlation coefficients at 92% of grid points over Eurasia are significant at the 5% significance level in the hybrid scheme, which is the best among all the schemes. Furthermore, spatial correlation coefficients (SCCs) of the six schemes are significant at the 1% significance level in most years during 1983–2015, with the averaged SCC of the hybrid scheme being the highest (0.60). The grid-averaged root-mean-square-error of the hybrid scheme is 0.04. By comparing the satellite-based NDVI value with the independent hindcast results during 2010–2015, it can be concluded that the hybrid scheme shows high prediction skill in terms of both the spatial pattern and the temporal variability of spring Eurasian NDVI.

Pacific Decadal and El Niño oscillations shape survival of a seabird

Understanding and modeling population change is urgently needed to predict effects of climate change on biodiversity. High trophic-level organisms are influenced by fluctuations of prey quality and abundance, which themselves may depend on climate oscillations. Modeling effects of such fluctuations is challenging because prey populations may vary with multiple climate oscillations occurring at different time scales. The analysis of a 28-yr time series of capture-recapture data of a tropical seabird, the Nazca Booby (Sula granti), in the Galápagos, Ecuador, allowed us to test for demographic effects of two major ocean oscillations occurring at distinct time-scales: the inter-annual El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and inter-decadal oscillations. As expected for a tropical seabird, survival of fledgling birds was highly affected by extreme ENSO events; by contrast, neither recruitment nor breeding participation were affected by either ENSO or decadal oscillations. More interesting, adult survival, a demographic trait that canalizes response to environmental variations, was unaffected by inter-annual ENSO oscillations yet was shaped by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and small pelagic fish regime. Adult survival decreased during oceanic conditions associated with higher breeding success, an association probably mediated in this species by costs of reproduction that reduce survival when breeding attempts end later. To our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that survival of a vertebrate can be vulnerable to a natural multidecadal oscillation.

ENSO and NAO affect long-term leaf litter dynamics and stoichiometry of Scots pine and European beech mixedwoods

Litterfall dynamics (production, seasonality and nutrient composition) are key factors influencing nutrient cycling. Leaf litter characteristics are modified by species composition, site conditions and water availability. However, significant evidence on how large-scale, global circulation patterns affect ecophysiological processes at tree and ecosystem level remains scarce due to the difficulty in separating the combined influence of different factors on local climate and tree phenology. To fill this gap, we studied links between leaf litter dynamics with climate and other forest processes, such as tree-ring width (TRW) and intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) in two mixtures of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the south-western Pyrenees. Temporal series (18 years) of litterfall production and elemental chemical composition were decomposed following the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method and relationships with local climate, large-scale climatic indices, TRW and Scots pine's iWUE were assessed. Temporal trends in N:P ratios indicated increasing P limitation of soil microbes, thus affecting nutrient availability, as the ecological succession from a pine-dominated to a beech-dominated forest took place. A significant influence of large-scale patterns on tree-level ecophysiology was explained through the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on water availability. Positive NAO and negative ENSO were related to dry conditions and, consequently, to early needle shedding and increased N:P ratio of both species. Autumn storm activity appears to be related to premature leaf abscission of European beech. Significant cascading effects from large-scale patterns on local weather influenced pine TRW and iWUE. These variables also responded to leaf stoichiometry fallen 3 years prior to tree-ring formation. Our results provide evidence of the cascading effect that variability in global climate circulation patterns can have on ecophysiological processes and stand dynamics in mixed forests.

Reproductive consequences of climate variability in migratory birds: evidence for species-specific responses to spring phenology and cross-seasonal effects

Climate change is altering global temperature and precipitation regimes, and the ability of species to respond to these changes could have serious implications for population dynamics. Flexible species may adjust breeding dates in response to advances in spring phenology. Furthermore, in migratory bird species, conditions experienced during the non-breeding season may have cross-seasonal effects during the subsequent breeding season. We evaluated species-specific responses to antecedent non-breeding (winter) and current breeding (spring) conditions. We used a data set composed of 21,230 duck nests from 164 sites in the Canadian Prairie Pothole Region, 1993-2011, to determine how environmental conditions influenced timing of nesting and subsequent nest survival in eight duck species representing varying life-histories. We tested how species responded in timing of nesting and nest survival, respectively, to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions experienced during the preceding non-breeding season (winter; Dec-Feb), and spring (Mar-Jun) temperature and moisture conditions on the breeding grounds. Ducks tended to nest earlier in warmer springs; however, in El Niño winters, with warmer spring temperatures, nesting tended to be later. We did not find evidence for direct effects of environmental variables on nest survival; however, evidence of indirect effects of winter conditions on nest survival for some species via strong direct effects on timing of nesting provides new insights into mechanisms for cross-seasonal effects on reproductive success.

Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea

Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered. Almost three-quarters of the carcasses were unscavenged, a rate much higher than in baseline surveys (17%), suggesting ongoing deposition and elevated mortality around St Paul over a 2–3 month period. Based on the observation that carcasses were not observed on the neighboring island of St. George, we bounded the at-sea distribution of moribund birds, and estimated all species mortality at 3,150 to 8,800 birds. The event was particularly anomalous given the late fall/winter timing when low numbers of beached birds are typical. In addition, the predominance of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata, 79% of carcass finds) and Crested auklets (Aethia cristatella, 11% of carcass finds) was unusual, as these species are nearly absent from long-term baseline surveys. Collected specimens were severely emaciated, suggesting starvation as the ultimate cause of mortality. The majority (95%, N = 245) of Tufted puffins were adults regrowing flight feathers, indicating a potential contribution of molt stress. Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.

The effects of network topology, climate variability and shocks on the evolution and resilience of a food trade network

Future climate change will impose increased variability on food production and food trading networks. However, the effect of climate variability and sudden shocks on resource availability through trade and its subsequent effect on population growth is largely unknown. Here we study the effect of resource variability and network topology on access to resources and population growth, using a model of population growth limited by resource availability in a trading network. Resources are redistributed in the network based on supply and the distance between nodes (i.e. cities or countries). Resources at nodes vary over time with wave parameters that mimic changes in biomass production arising from known climate variability. Random perturbations to resources are applied to study resilience of individual nodes and the system as a whole. The model demonstrates that redistribution of resources increases the maximum population that can be supported (carrying capacity) by the network. Fluctuations in carrying capacity depend on the amplitude and frequency of resource variability: fluctuations become larger for increasing amplitude and decreasing frequency. Our study shows that topology is the key factor determining the carrying capacity of a node. In larger networks the carrying capacity increases and the distribution of resources in the network becomes more equal. The most central nodes achieve a higher carrying capacity than nodes with a lower centrality. Moreover, central nodes are less susceptible to long-term resource variability and shocks. These insights can be used to understand how worldwide equitable access to resources can be maintained under increasing climate variability.

Global vegetation productivity responses to the West Pacific Warm Pool

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly influence atmospheric circulation and the Earth's climate, which in turn significantly affects vegetation productivity. Most of the previous studies on the subject have focused on links between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and vegetation productivity, but few studies have addressed the effects of West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) on that although the early stages of the ENSO phenomenon may first develop there. In this paper, we use the mean SST values in the WPWP to construct a climate index, known as the WPWP index (WPI), and study the impacts of the WPWP on global vegetation productivity. We provide evidence for a robust link among the alternating warm and cool WPI pattern, terrestrial vegetation productivity and carbon balance. The analysis is based on both satellite observations and model simulations. The results of this study show that the warm and cool WPWP phases have inverse effects on land surface temperature and precipitation. A warm (cool) WPWP is associated with a warmer (cooler) climate on global land surfaces as well as a drier (wetter) climate in southern hemisphere, and hence enhances (suppresses) vegetation productivity in the latitudes of approximately 10-70°N and suppresses (enhances) vegetation growth in the latitudes of approximately 10-30°S. The underlying mechanism is also discussed. The WPI serves as a meaningful climate index for studying the ocean-vegetation teleconnections.

Climate Influence on Legacy Organochlorine Pollutants in Arctic Seabirds

Changing climate can influence the transport of chemical pollutants into Arctic regions and their fate once there. However, the influence of weather or climate variables on organochlorine accumulation in Arctic wildlife, including seabirds, and associated time scale are poorly understood. We assessed the interannual relationships between a suite of weather/climate variables for time lags of 0 to 10 yr and organochlorine pollutant concentrations spanning 1975-2014 in eggs of two seabird species (northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis, thick-billed murre Uria lomvia) that breed in the Canadian High Arctic. The majority of variability in the data was associated with declining organochlorine emissions (up to 70.2% for murres and 77.4% for fulmars). By controlling for emissions using principal component ordination and general linear modeling, correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were found for fulmars and with rainfall for murres, after a time lag of 4-9 yr between weather/climate conditions and egg collection. Our results suggest that with increasingly NAO+ conditions and increasing rainfall associated with climate change, concentrations of certain organochlorines such as hexachlorobenzene and p, p'-DDE have increased, dependent on seabird species and ecology as well as partitioning characteristics of the chemical. Analysis of a truncated version of the data sets (2005-2014), consistent with typical time series lengths for environmental pollutants in Arctic wildlife, found correlations with precipitation for murres but not with NAO for fulmars, suggesting that longer time series better elucidate relationships with broad-scale climate indices. Organochlorine pollutant data sets spanning 40 years, which is rare for Arctic wildlife, for two species of seabird were assessed, and the results highlight the association between weather/climate and pollutant accumulation in Arctic food webs and the critical role of ongoing monitoring to effectively elucidate these relationships.

Long-term trends in the foraging ecology and habitat use of an endangered species: an isotopic perspective

Evaluating long-term drivers of foraging ecology and population productivity is crucial for providing ecological baselines and forecasting species responses to future environmental conditions. Here, we examine the trophic ecology and habitat use of North Atlantic leatherback turtles (St. Croix nesting population) and investigate the effects of large-scale oceanographic conditions on leatherback foraging dynamics. We used bulk and compound-specific nitrogen isotope analysis of amino acids (CSIA-AA) to estimate leatherback trophic position (TP) over an 18-year period, compare these estimates with TP estimates from a Pacific leatherback population, and elucidate the pre-nesting habitat use patterns of leatherbacks. Our secondary objective was to use oceanographic indices and nesting information from St. Croix leatherbacks to evaluate relationships between trophic ecology, nesting parameters, and regional environmental conditions measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. We found no change in leatherback TP over time and no difference in TP between Atlantic and Pacific leatherbacks, indicating that differences in trophic ecology between populations are an unlikely driver of the population dichotomy between Pacific and Atlantic leatherbacks. Isotope data suggested that St. Croix leatherbacks inhabit multiple oceanic regions prior to nesting, although, like their conspecifics in the Pacific, individuals exhibit fidelity to specific foraging regions. Leatherback nesting parameters were weakly related to the NAO, which may suggest that positive NAO phases benefit St. Croix leatherbacks, potentially through increases in resource availability in their foraging areas. Our data contribute to the understanding of leatherback turtle ecology and potential mechanistic drivers of the dichotomy between populations of this protected species.

Non-stationary climate-salmon relationships in the Gulf of Alaska

Studies of climate effects on ecology often account for non-stationarity in individual physical and biological variables, but rarely allow for non-stationary relationships among variables. Here, we show that non-stationary relationships among physical and biological variables are central to understanding climate effects on salmon (Onchorynchus spp.) in the Gulf of Alaska during 1965-2012. The relative importance of two leading patterns in North Pacific climate, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), changed around 1988/1989 as reflected by changing correlations with leading axes of sea surface temperature variability. Simultaneously, relationships between the PDO and Gulf of Alaska environmental variables weakened, and long-standing temperature-salmon and PDO-salmon covariance declined to zero. We propose a mechanistic explanation for changing climate-salmon relationships in terms of non-stationary atmosphere-ocean interactions coinciding with changing PDO-NPGO relative importance. We also show that regression models assuming stationary climate-salmon relationships are inappropriate over the multidecadal time scale we consider. Relaxing assumptions of stationary relationships markedly improved modelling of climate effects on salmon catches and productivity. Attempts to understand the implications of changing climate patterns in other ecosystems might also be aided by the application of models that allow associations among environmental and biological variables to change over time.

Resilience to climate variation in a spatially structured amphibian population

Understanding the impact of weather fluctuations on demographic parameters is of crucial interest to biodiversity research in a context of global climate change. Amphibians are valuable candidates for investigating this topic due to their strong physiological dependence on water availability and temperature. In this study, we took advantage of data from a long-term capture-mark-recapture (CMR) monitoring program of a great crested newt (Triturus cristatus) population inhabiting a 12-pond archipelago in southeastern France. We investigated the interactions between vital rates (survival and recruitment), the internal structure of the population, and climatic variables both at a local and a regional (North Atlantic Oscillation: NAO) scale. Overall, we found a weak relationship between climatic variables and the survival of large-bodied newts. The only strong relationship was found to be a high NAO index during the post-breeding period, suggesting that dry, hot summers negatively impact survival. In terms of recruitment, the results indicated that hot weather during the activity period had delayed deleterious effects on adult recruitment two years later, suggesting high larval and juvenile mortality due to unsuitable growing conditions. Recruitment was also impacted by a high NAO index during the overwintering period preceding recruitment, suggesting that mild weather increases the mortality of juveniles, probably by enhancing the depletion of energy reserves without any possibility of refueling.

The Arctic oscillation, climatic variability, and biotic factors influenced seedling dynamics in a Caribbean moist forest

We assessed the influence of the Arctic oscillation (AO) on local climate (using data from 2004 to 2009), their influence and the effects of heterospecific density on seedling dynamics (from January 2006 to August 2009), using data from 120 25-m² subplots established in a moist tropical forest over limestone in Jamaica. The AO index (AOI) had a positive nonlinear relationship with mean monthly rainfall and the number of days with rain. Also, there was a significant increase in mean monthly atmospheric temperature in 2006, which coincided with a global temperature increase. Overall, at the community level, as temperature increased, mortality increased and then decreased. Also, mortality was significantly lower in plots with higher densities and those that experienced the positive phase of the AO. The effect of the AO on relative growth rate (RGR) of height (RGRh) varied as the AOI increased from negative to positive, while the number of days with rainfall had a positive effect on recruitment. However, these relationships differed during three six-month and two 12-month sample periods. There was a drought during the first period (dry season) during the negative phase of the AO; consequently, mortality was highest during this period. As the AOI increased (negative to positive), both mortality and RGRh declined while recruitment increased, culminating in a high-recruitment event. In addition, as the number of days with rainfall increased, RGR of diameter (RGRd) values were more positive (indicating that moisture stress was alleviated). During the second period (wet season), mortality increased as seedling density increased (possibly due to increased competition). Additionally, elevated temperature had a significant negative effect on RGRh (again, possibly due to increased competition or due to elevated respiratory carbon loss at higher growth temperatures). After the first two censuses, temperature and the AO influenced dynamics marginally, and seedling heterospecific density became increasingly important (lower mortality at higher densities). At the population level, the number of days with rainfall was the most frequent predictor of dynamics followed by temperature, AO, density and rainfall, and they were largely beneficial.

Local and population-level responses of Greater sage-grouse to oil and gas development and climatic variation in Wyoming

BACKGROUND

Spatial scale is important when studying ecological processes. The Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a large sexually dimorphic tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush biome of western North America. The impacts of oil and gas (OAG) development at individual leks has been well-documented. However, no previous studies have quantified the population-level response.

METHODS

Hierarchical models were used to estimate the effects of the areal disturbance due to well pads as well as climatic variation on individual lek counts and Greater sage-grouse populations (management units) over 32 years. The lek counts were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models while the management units were analyzed using Gompertz population dynamic models. The models were fitted using frequentist and Bayesian methods. An information-theoretic approach was used to identify the most important spatial scale and time lags. The relative importance of OAG and climate at the local and population-level scales was assessed using information-theoretic (Akaike's weights) and estimation (effect size) statistics.

RESULTS

At the local scale, OAG was an important negative predictor of the lek count. At the population scale, there was only weak support for OAG as a predictor of density changes but the estimated impacts on the long-term carrying capacity were consistent with summation of the local impacts. Regional climatic variation, as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, was an important positive predictor of density changes at both the local and population level (particularly in the most recent part of the time series).

CONCLUSIONS

Additional studies to reduce the uncertainty in the range of possible effects of OAG at the population scale are required. Wildlife agencies need to account for the effects of regional climatic variation when managing sage-grouse populations.

Spatiotemporal variation of the association between climate dynamics and HFRS outbreaks in Eastern China during 2005-2016 and its geographic determinants

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-associated zoonosis caused by hantavirus. The HFRS was initially detected in northeast China in 1931, and since 1955 it has been detected in many regions of the country. Global climate dynamics influences HFRS spread in a complex nonlinear way. The quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of the “HFRS infections-global climate dynamics” association at a large geographical scale and during a long time period is still lacking.

Methods and findings

This work is the first study of a recently completed dataset of monthly HFRS cases in Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. A methodological synthesis that involves a time-frequency technique, a composite space-time model, hotspot analysis, and machine learning is implemented in the study of (a) the association between HFRS incidence spread and climate dynamics and (b) the geographic factors impacting this association over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. The results showed that by assimilating core and city-specific knowledge bases the synthesis was able to depict quantitatively the space-time variation of periodic climate-HFRS associations at a large geographic scale and to assess numerically the strength of this association in the area and period of interest. It was found that the HFRS infections in Eastern China has a strong association with global climate dynamics, in particular, the 12, 18 and 36 mos periods were detected as the three main synchronous periods of climate dynamics and HFRS distribution. For the 36 mos period (which is the period with the strongest association), the space-time correlation pattern of the association strength indicated strong temporal but rather weak spatial dependencies. The generated space-time maps of association strength and association hotspots provided a clear picture of the geographic variation of the association strength that often-exhibited cluster characteristics (e.g., the south part of the study area displays a strong climate-HFRS association with non-point effects, whereas the middle-north part displays a weak climate-HFRS association). Another finding of this work is the upward climate-HFRS coherency trend for the past few years (2013–2015) indicating that the climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. Lastly, another finding of this work is that geographic factors affect the climate-HFRS association in an interrelated manner through local climate or by means of HFRS infections. In particular, location (latitude, distance to coastline and longitude), grassland and woodland are the geographic factors exerting the most noticeable effects on the climate-HFRS association (e.g., low latitude has a strong effect, whereas distance to coastline has a wave-like effect).

Conclusions

The proposed synthetic quantitative approach revealed important aspects of the spatiotemporal variation of the climate-HFRS association in Eastern China during a long time period, and identified the geographic factors having a major impact on this association. Both findings could improve public health policy in an HFRS-torn country like China. Furthermore, the synthetic approach developed in this work can be used to map the space-time variation of different climate-disease associations in other parts of China and the World.

China has the largest number of HFRS infections in the world (9045 cases in 2016). Previous studies have found that HFRS infections are related to climate. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of the association between HFRS outbreaks at a large scale and global climate dynamics (i.e., over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016), as well as the identification of the geographic factors impacting this association have not been studied yet. This is then the dual focus of the present study. Strong synchronicities between global climate change and HFRS infections were detected across the entire study area that were linked to three main time periods (12, 18 and 36 mos). Specifically, strong and weak associations with non-point effects were detected in the south and middle-north parts of the study region, respectively. The climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. On the other hand, the geographic location (north coordinate, distance to coastline, east coordinate) makes a considerable contribution to the climate-HFRS association. As regards land-use, grassland and woodland were found to play important contributing roles to climate-HFRS association. Certain space-time links between global climate dynamics and HFRS infections were confirmed at a large spatial scale and within a long time period. The above findings could improve both the understanding of the HFRS transmission pattern and the forecasting of HFRS outbreaks.

Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = -0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%-6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = -0.13, SE = 0.019).

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large-scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large-scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007-2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large-scale climatic variations on the short-term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large-scale climatic changes.

Large-Scale Climate Effects Meet an Amazonian Butterfly: Which Population Parameters Respond to El Niño?

One of the most tangible outcomes of climate change is change in the frequency of El Niño/La Niña events. They have a large impact on rainfall in the Western hemisphere, but their impact on tropical fauna is largely unknown. A decade long capture-mark-recapture study of the widespread Ecuadorian butterfly Nessaea hewitsoni (Felder & Felder) from an intact forest allowed us to analyze patterns of monthly and seasonal population dynamics before, during, and after an El Niño event. El Niño events did not affect long-term population size, but a 5-month delayed El Niño led to temporary emigration of females, with their subsequent return. Increased rainfall correlated with reduced survival in both sexes, but this effect was twice as strong in females. This investigation is the longest, continuous population study on any Neotropical insect species. Though we sampled on a modest scale, the magnitude of El Niño events suggests that our findings likely reflect insect population responses across a much larger portion of Amazonian forests. This study underscores the importance of analyzing multiple, interacting population parameters beyond local abundance in order to understand the biotic responses to El Niño and climate change in tropical systems. Had our analyses not included temporary emigration, no effect would have been detected because El Niño did not affect local population abundance.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.

Precipitation drives global variation in natural selection

Climate change has the potential to affect the ecology and evolution of every species on Earth. Although the ecological consequences of climate change are increasingly well documented, the effects of climate on the key evolutionary process driving adaptation-natural selection-are largely unknown. We report that aspects of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, along with the North Atlantic Oscillation, predicted variation in selection across plant and animal populations throughout many terrestrial biomes, whereas temperature explained little variation. By showing that selection was influenced by climate variation, our results indicate that climate change may cause widespread alterations in selection regimes, potentially shifting evolutionary trajectories at a global scale.

Effects of El Niño-driven changes in wind patterns on North Pacific albatrosses

Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing increased travel speeds and mass gained during foraging trips. However, brooding albatrosses did not benefit from stronger winds during La Niña conditions, instead experiencing stronger cumulative headwinds and a smaller proportion of trips in tailwinds. Increased travel costs during brooding may contribute to the lower reproductive success observed in La Niña conditions. Furthermore, benefits of stronger winds in incubating habitat may explain the higher reproductive success of Laysan albatross during El Niño conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering habitat accessibility and cost of travel when evaluating the impacts of climate-driven habitat change on marine predators.

Climate variability impacts on rainfed cereal yields in west and northwest Iran

In order to assess the response of wheat and barley to climate variability, the correlation between variations of yields with local and global climate variables was investigated in west and northwest Iran over 1982-2013. The global climate variables were the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signals. Further, minimum (T _min), maximum (T _max), and mean (T _mean) temperature, diurnal temperature range (DTR), precipitation, and reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) was used as local weather factors. Pearson's correlation coefficient was applied to analyze the relationships between climatic variables and yields. Unlike T _min, T _mean, ET₀, and T _max, the yields were significantly associated with the entire growing season (EGS) DTR in most sites. Therefore, considering weather extreme variables such as DTR sheds light on the crop-temperature interactions. It is also found that the April-May-June (AMJ), October-November-December (OND), and EGS rainfall variations markedly influence the yields. Unlike the AO and NAO indices, the Niño-4 and SOI (the ENSO-related signals) were significantly correlated with the OND and EGS precipitation and DTR. Thus, the ENSO anomalies highly impact rainfed yields through influencing the OND and EGS rainfall and DTR in the studied sites. As the correlation coefficient of the OND and July-August-September (JAS) Niño-4 with yields was significant (p < 0.05) for almost all locations, the JAS and OND Niño-4 may be a good proxy for cereal yield forecasting. Further, an insignificant increment and a significant reduction in yields are expected in La Niña and El Niño years, respectively, relative to neutral years.

Distribution of invasive Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in the East-Central Europe is driven by climatic and local environmental variables

Mechanisms behind expansion of an invasive cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii have not been fully resolved, and different hypotheses, such as global warming, are suggested. In the East-Central Europe, it is widely occurring in western part of Poland but only in single locations in the East due to some limiting factors. Therefore, broad-scale phytoplankton survey including 117 randomly selected lakes in Poland and Lithuania was conducted. The results showed that C. raciborskii occurred widely in western part of Poland but was absent from other regions and Lithuania except one lake. The regions in which C. raciborskii was present had higher annual mean air temperature, higher maximum air temperature of the warmest month and higher minimum temperature of the coldest month, demonstrating that average air temperature, and indirectly, the duration of growing season might be more important factor driving C. raciborskii distribution than measured in situ water temperature. In turn, the presence of C. raciborskii in single localities may be more related to physiological adaptations of separated ecotype. Collectively, these results provide novel evidence on the influence of temperature on C. raciborskii distribution in East-European regions but also indicate high ecological plasticity of this species.

Integrated population models reveal local weather conditions are the key drivers of population dynamics in an aerial insectivore

Changes to weather patterns under a warming climate are complex: while warmer temperatures are expected virtually worldwide, decreased mean precipitation is expected at mid-latitudes. Migratory birds depend on broad-scale weather patterns to inform timing of movements, but may be more susceptible to local weather patterns during sedentary periods. We constructed Bayesian integrated population models (IPMs) to assess whether continental or local weather effects best explained population dynamics in an environmentally sensitive aerial insectivorous bird, the tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), along a transcontinental gradient from British Columbia to Saskatchewan to New York, and tested whether population dynamics were synchronous among sites. Little consistency existed among sites in the demographic rates most affecting population growth rate or in correlations among rates. Juvenile apparent survival at all sites was stable over time and greatest in New York, whereas adult apparent survival was more variable among years and sites, and greatest in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Fledging success was greatest in Saskatchewan. Local weather conditions explained significant variation in adult survival in Saskatchewan and fledging success in New York, corroborating the hypothesis that local more than continental weather drives the population dynamics of this species and, therefore, demographic synchrony measured at three sites was limited. Nonetheless, multi-population IPMs can be a powerful tool for identifying correlated population trajectories caused by synchronous demographic rates, and can pinpoint the scale at which environmental drivers are responsible for changes. We caution against applying uniform conservation actions for populations where synchrony does not occur or is not fully understood.

Change of plant phenophases explained by survival modeling

It is known from many studies that plant species show a delay in the timing of flowering events with an increase in latitude and altitude, and an advance with an increase in temperature. Furthermore, in many locations and for many species, flowering dates have advanced over the long-term. New insights using survival modeling are given based on data collected (1970-2010) along a 3000-km long transect from northern to eastern central Europe. We could clearly observe that in the case of dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) the risk of flowering time, in other words the probability that flowering occurs, is higher for an earlier day of year in later decades. Our approach assume that temperature has greater influence than precipitation on the timing of flowering. Evaluation of the predictive power of tested models suggests that Cox models may be used in plant phenological research. The applied Cox model provides improved predictions of flowering dates compared to traditional regression methods and gives further insights into drivers of phenological events.

The influence of climatic variation and density on the survival of an insular passerine Zosterops lateralis

Understanding the influence of environmental factors on population dynamics is fundamental to many areas in biology. Survival is a key factor of population biology, as it is thought to be the predominant driver of growth in long-lived passerines, which can be influenced by both biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. We used mark-recapture methods and generalized linear mixed models to test the influence of density and climatic variation, measured at a regional and local scale (Southern Oscillation Index [SOI] and rainfall, respectively), on seasonal variation in survival rates of an insular population of Silvereyes (Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus), during a 15-year study period, off the east coast of Australia. We found overall high survival rates for adults and juveniles (81% and 59%, respectively). Local scale climate (i.e. rainfall) and density were the principal environmental factors influencing their survival, both with a negative relationship. A significant interactive effect of density and rainfall influenced survival as they both increased. However, survival remained low when density was at it highest, independent of the amount of rainfall. Nestling survival was negatively influenced by rainfall and density, positively by SOI, and chicks that hatched later in the breeding season had higher survival rates. The regional scale climate variable (i.e. SOI) did not explain survival rates as strongly as rainfall in any age class. Our results contribute to the understanding of insular avian population dynamics and the differential effects of environmental factors across age classes. Climatic predictions expect El Niño events to increase, meaning dryer conditions in eastern Australia, potentially increasing Silvereye survival across age classes. However, the long-term effect of lower rainfall on food availability is unknown; consequently, the outcome of lower rainfall on Silvereye survival rates is uncertain.