Virus evolution and transmission in an ever more connected world

Phylodynamic assessment of intervention strategies for the West African Ebola virus outbreak

Genetic analyses have provided important insights into Ebola virus spread during the recent West African outbreak, but their implications for specific intervention scenarios remain unclear. Here, we address this issue using a collection of phylodynamic approaches. We show that long-distance dispersal events were not crucial for epidemic expansion and that preventing viral lineage movement to any given administrative area would, in most cases, have had little impact. However, major urban areas were critical in attracting and disseminating the virus: preventing viral lineage movement to all three capitals simultaneously would have contained epidemic size to one-third. We also show that announcements of border closures were followed by a significant but transient effect on international virus dispersal. By quantifying the hypothetical impact of different intervention strategies, as well as the impact of barriers on dispersal frequency, our study illustrates how phylodynamic analyses can help to address specific epidemiological and outbreak control questions.

During the last Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa, a large amount of viral genomic data was obtained. Here, Dellicour et al. use phylodynamic approaches to assess effect of intervention strategies such as border closures.

Understanding dengue virus evolution to support epidemic surveillance and counter-measure development

Dengue virus (DENV) causes a profound burden of morbidity and mortality, and its global burden is rising due to the co-circulation of four divergent DENV serotypes in the ecological context of globalization, travel, climate change, urbanization, and expansion of the geographic range of the Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus vectors. Understanding DENV evolution offers valuable opportunities to enhance surveillance and response to DENV epidemics via advances in RNA virus sequencing, bioinformatics, phylogenetic and other computational biology methods. Here we provide a scoping overview of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of DENV and the range of ways that evolutionary analyses can be applied as a public health tool against this arboviral pathogen.

Landscape attributes governing local transmission of an endemic zoonosis: Rabies virus in domestic dogs

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data. Here, we extend these methodological approaches to decipher the relative contribution and scale-dependent effects of landscape influences on the transmission of endemic rabies virus in Serengeti district, Tanzania (area ~4,900 km2 ). Utilizing detailed epidemiological data and 152 complete viral genomes collected between 2004 and 2013, we show that the localized presence of dogs but not their density is the most important determinant of diffusion, implying that culling will be ineffective for rabies control. Rivers and roads acted as barriers and facilitators to viral spread, respectively, and vaccination impeded diffusion despite variable annual coverage. Notably, we found that landscape effects were scale-dependent: rivers were barriers and roads facilitators on larger scales, whereas the distribution of dogs was important for rabies dispersal across multiple scales. This nuanced understanding of the spatial processes that underpin rabies transmission can be exploited for targeted control at the scale where it will have the greatest impact. Moreover, this research demonstrates how current phylogeographic frameworks can be adapted to improve our understanding of endemic disease dynamics at different spatial scales.

A Relaxed Directional Random Walk Model for Phylogenetic Trait Evolution

Understanding the processes that give rise to quantitative measurements associated with molecular sequence data remains an important issue in statistical phylogenetics. Examples of such measurements include geographic coordinates in the context of phylogeography and phenotypic traits in the context of comparative studies. A popular approach is to model the evolution of continuously varying traits as a Brownian diffusion process acting on a phylogenetic tree. However, standard Brownian diffusion is quite restrictive and may not accurately characterize certain trait evolutionary processes. Here, we relax one of the major restrictions of standard Brownian diffusion by incorporating a nontrivial estimable mean into the process. We introduce a relaxed directional random walk (RDRW) model for the evolution of multivariate continuously varying traits along a phylogenetic tree. Notably, the RDRW model accommodates branch-specific variation of directional trends while preserving model identifiability. Furthermore, our development of a computationally efficient dynamic programming approach to compute the data likelihood enables scaling of our method to large data sets frequently encountered in phylogenetic comparative studies and viral evolution. We implement the RDRW model in a Bayesian inference framework to simultaneously reconstruct the evolutionary histories of molecular sequence data and associated multivariate continuous trait data, and provide tools to visualize evolutionary reconstructions. We demonstrate the performance of our model on synthetic data, and we illustrate its utility in two viral examples. First, we examine the spatiotemporal spread of HIV-1 in central Africa and show that the RDRW model uncovers a clearer, more detailed picture of the dynamics of viral dispersal than standard Brownian diffusion. Second, we study antigenic evolution in the context of HIV-1 resistance to three broadly neutralizing antibodies. Our analysis reveals evidence of a continuous drift at the HIV-1 population level towards enhanced resistance to neutralization by the VRC01 monoclonal antibody over the course of the epidemic. [Brownian Motion; Diffusion Processes; Phylodynamics; Phylogenetics; Phylogeography; Trait Evolution.].

Revised time scales of RNA virus evolution based on spatial information

The time scales of pathogen evolution are of major concern in the context of public and veterinary health, epidemiology and evolutionary biology. Dating the emergence of a pathogen often relies on estimates of evolutionary rates derived from nucleotide sequence data. For many viruses, this has yielded estimates of evolutionary origins only a few hundred years in the past. Here we demonstrate through the incorporation of geographical information from virus sampling that evolutionary age estimates of two European hantaviruses are severely underestimated because of pervasive mutational saturation of nucleotide sequences. We detected very strong relationships between spatial distance and genetic divergence for both Puumala and Tula hantavirus-irrespective of whether nucleotide or derived amino acid sequences were analysed. Extrapolations from these relationships dated the emergence of these viruses most conservatively to at least 3700 and 2500 years ago, respectively. Our minimum estimates for the age of these hantaviruses are ten to a hundred times older than results from current non-spatial methods, and in much better accordance with the biogeography of these viruses and their respective hosts. Spatial information can thus provide valuable insights on the deeper time scales of pathogen evolution and improve our understanding of disease emergence.

Group B Wolbachia Strain-Dependent Inhibition of Arboviruses

Mosquito-borne viruses, including Zika virus (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV), are global threats that continue to infect millions annually. Historically, efforts to combat the spread of these diseases have sought to eradicate the mosquito population. This has had limited success. Recent efforts to combat the spread of these diseases have targeted the mosquito population and the mosquito's ability to transmit viruses by altering the mosquito's microbiome. The introduction of particular strains of Wolbachia bacteria into mosquitos suppresses viral growth and blocks disease transmission. This novel strategy is being tested worldwide to reduce DENV and has early indications of success. The Wolbachia genus comprised divergent strains that are divided in major phylogenetic clades termed supergroups. All Wolbachia field trials currently utilize supergroup A Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitos to limit virus transmission. Here we discuss our studies of Wolbachia strains not yet used in virus control strategies but that show strong potential to reduce ZIKV replication. These strains are important opportunities in the search for novel tools to reduce the levels of mosquito-borne viruses and provide additional models for mechanistic studies.

Development of small-molecule viral inhibitors targeting various stages of the life cycle of emerging and re-emerging viruses

In recent years, unexpected outbreaks of infectious diseases caused by emerging and re-emerging viruses have become more frequent, which is possibly due to environmental changes. These outbreaks result in the loss of life and economic hardship. Vaccines and therapeutics should be developed for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases. In this review, we summarize and discuss the latest progress in the development of small-molecule viral inhibitors against highly pathogenic coronaviruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Ebola virus, and Zika virus. These viruses can interfere with the specific steps of viral life cycle by blocking the binding between virus and host cells, disrupting viral endocytosis, disturbing membrane fusion, and interrupting viral RNA replication and translation, thereby demonstrating potent therapeutic effect against various emerging and re-emerging viruses. We also discuss some general strategies for developing small-molecule viral inhibitors.

Emergence of recombinant Mayaro virus strains from the Amazon basin

Mayaro virus (MAYV), causative agent of Mayaro Fever, is an arbovirus transmitted by Haemagogus mosquitoes. Despite recent attention due to the identification of several cases in South and Central America and the Caribbean, limited information on MAYV evolution and epidemiology exists and represents a barrier to prevention of further spread. We present a thorough spatiotemporal evolutionary study of MAYV full-genome sequences collected over the last sixty years within South America and Haiti, revealing recent recombination events and adaptation to a broad host and vector range, including Aedes mosquito species. We employed a Bayesian phylogeography approach to characterize the emergence of recombinants in Brazil and Haiti and report evidence in favor of the putative role of human mobility in facilitating recombination among MAYV strains from geographically distinct regions. Spatiotemporal characteristics of recombination events and the emergence of this previously neglected virus in Haiti, a known hub for pathogen spread to the Americas, warrants close monitoring of MAYV infection in the immediate future.

Network Experiences from a Cross-Sector Biosafety Level-3 Laboratory Collaboration: A Swedish Forum for Biopreparedness Diagnostics

The Swedish Forum for Biopreparedness Diagnostics (FBD) is a network that fosters collaboration among the 4 agencies with responsibility for the laboratory diagnostics of high-consequence pathogens, covering animal health and feed safety, food safety, public health and biodefense, and security. The aim of the network is to strengthen capabilities and capacities for diagnostics at the national biosafety level-3 (BSL-3) laboratories to improve Sweden's biopreparedness, in line with recommendations from the EU and WHO. Since forming in 2007, the FBD network has contributed to the harmonization of diagnostic methods, equipment, quality assurance protocols, and biosafety practices among the national BSL-3 laboratories. Lessons learned from the network include: (1) conducting joint projects with activities such as method development and validation, ring trials, exercises, and audits has helped to build trust and improve communication among participating agencies; (2) rotating the presidency of the network steering committee has fostered trust and commitment from all agencies involved; and (3) planning for the implementation of project outcomes is important to maintain gained competencies in the agencies over time. Contacts have now been established with national agencies of the other Nordic countries, with an aim to expanding the collaboration, broadening the network, finding synergies in new areas, strengthening the ability to share resources, and consolidating long-term financing in the context of harmonized European biopreparedness.

The Swedish Forum for Biopreparedness Diagnostics (FBD) is a network that fosters collaboration among the 4 agencies with responsibility for the laboratory diagnostics of high-consequence pathogens, covering animal health and feed safety, food safety, public health and biodefense, and security.

Exploiting Genetic Information to Trace Plant Virus Dispersal in Landscapes

During the past decade, knowledge of pathogen life history has greatly benefited from the advent and development of molecular epidemiology. This branch of epidemiology uses information on pathogen variation at the molecular level to gain insights into a pathogen's niche and evolution and to characterize pathogen dispersal within and between host populations. Here, we review molecular epidemiology approaches that have been developed to trace plant virus dispersal in landscapes. In particular, we highlight how virus molecular epidemiology, nourished with powerful sequencing technologies, can provide novel insights at the crossroads between the blooming fields of landscape genetics, phylogeography, and evolutionary epidemiology. We present existing approaches and their limitations and contributions to the understanding of plant virus epidemiology.

Increasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia

The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014-2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1-3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.

Travelling to the south: Phylogeographic spatial diffusion model in Monttea aphylla (Plantaginaceae), an endemic plant of the Monte Desert

Effects of Pleistocene climatic oscillations on plant phylogeographic patterns are relatively well studied in forest, savanna and grassland biomes, but such impacts remain less explored on desert regions of the world, especially in South America. Here, we performed a phylogeographical study of Monttea aphylla, an endemic species of the Monte Desert, to understand the evolutionary history of vegetation communities inhabiting the South American Arid Diagonal. We obtained sequences of three chloroplast (trnS–trnfM, trnH–psbA and trnQ–rps16) and one nuclear (ITS) intergenic spacers from 272 individuals of 34 localities throughout the range of the species. Population genetic and Bayesian coalescent analyses were performed to infer genealogical relationships among haplotypes, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the study species. Timing of demographic events was inferred using Bayesian Skyline Plot and the spatio-temporal patterns of lineage diversification was reconstructed using Bayesian relaxed diffusion models. Palaeo-distribution models (PDM) were performed through three different timescales to validate phylogeographical patterns. Twenty-five and 22 haplotypes were identified in the cpDNA and nDNA data, respectively. that clustered into two main genealogical lineages following a latitudinal pattern, the northern and the southern Monte (south of 35° S). The northern Monte showed two lineages of high genetic structure, and more relative stable demography than the southern Monte that retrieved three groups with little phylogenetic structure and a strong signal of demographic expansion that would have started during the Last Interglacial period (ca. 120 Ka). The PDM and diffusion models analyses agreed in the southeast direction of the range expansion. Differential effect of climatic oscillations across the Monte phytogeographic province was observed in Monttea aphylla lineages. In northern Monte, greater genetic structure and more relative stable demography resulted from a more stable climate than in the southern Monte. Pleistocene glaciations drastically decreased the species area in the southern Monte, which expanded in a southeastern direction to the new available areas during the interglacial periods.

Assessing the use of mobile phone data to describe recurrent mobility patterns in spatial epidemic models

The recent availability of large-scale call detail record data has substantially improved our ability of quantifying human travel patterns with broad applications in epidemiology. Notwithstanding a number of successful case studies, previous works have shown that using different mobility data sources, such as mobile phone data or census surveys, to parametrize infectious disease models can generate divergent outcomes. Thus, it remains unclear to what extent epidemic modelling results may vary when using different proxies for human movements. Here, we systematically compare 658 000 simulated outbreaks generated with a spatially structured epidemic model based on two different human mobility networks: a commuting network of France extracted from mobile phone data and another extracted from a census survey. We compare epidemic patterns originating from all the 329 possible outbreak seed locations and identify the structural network properties of the seeding nodes that best predict spatial and temporal epidemic patterns to be alike. We find that similarity of simulated epidemics is significantly correlated to connectivity, traffic and population size of the seeding nodes, suggesting that the adequacy of mobile phone data for infectious disease models becomes higher when epidemics spread between highly connected and heavily populated locations, such as large urban areas.

Phylogenetic evidence for underreporting of male-to-male sex among human immunodeficiency virus-infected donors in the Netherlands and Flanders

BACKGROUND

Separate transmission networks for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) coexist. Molecular typing of viral genomes can provide insight in HIV transmission routes in donors for whom risk behavior-based donor selection failed.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study includes all HIV-infected Dutch and Flemish donors in the period 2005 to 2014 (n = 55). Part of the HIV polymerase (pol) gene was amplified, sequenced, and compared with more than 10,000 HIV strains obtained from HIV-infected Dutch and Flemish patients. The most likely transmission route was determined based on HIV phylogeny and the donor's self-reported risk behavior during the exit interview.

RESULTS

HIV-infected donors were predominantly male (69%), were repeat donors (73%), were born in the Netherlands or Belgium (95%), and harbored HIV Subtype B (68%). Seventy-five percent of HIV-infected male donors were part of robust phylogenetic clusters linked to male-to-male sex, while only 24% of HIV-infected male donors reported male-to-male sex during posttest counseling. Sex between men and women accounted for 13% of HIV infections in male donors and 93% of HIV infections in female donors based on phylogenetic analysis. Only 40% of HIV-infected female donors had HIV Subtype B; 65% of female donors reported a foreign partner and indeed HIV sequences interspersed with sequences from HIV-endemic areas abroad, in particular sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSION

HIV typing helps to understand HIV transmission routes in donor populations. We found substantial underreporting of male-to-male sex among HIV-infected male donors. Donor education on HIV risk factors and the danger of window-period donations and a donor environment that encourages frank disclosure of sexual behavior will contribute to a decrease of HIV-infected donors.

The epidemic dynamics of hepatitis C virus subtypes 4a and 4d in Saudi Arabia

The relatedness between viral variants sampled at different locations through time can provide information pertinent to public health that cannot readily be obtained through standard surveillance methods. Here, we use virus genetic data to identify the transmission dynamics that drive the hepatitis C virus subtypes 4a (HCV4a) and 4d (HCV4d) epidemics in Saudi Arabia. We use a comprehensive dataset of newly generated and publicly available sequence data to infer the HCV4a and HCV4d evolutionary histories in a Bayesian statistical framework. We also introduce a novel analytical method for an objective assessment of the migration intensity between locations. We find that international host mobility patterns dominate over within country spread in shaping the Saudi Arabia HCV4a epidemic, while this may be different for the HCV4d epidemic. This indicates that the subtypes 4a and 4d burden can be most effectively reduced by combining the prioritized screening and treatment of Egyptian immigrants with domestic prevention campaigns. Our results highlight that the joint investigation of evolutionary and epidemiological processes can provide valuable public health information, even in the absence of extensive metadata information.

Implications of hepatitis C virus subtype 1a migration patterns for virus genetic sequencing policies in Italy

Background

In-depth phylogeographic analysis can reveal migration patterns relevant for public health planning. Here, as a model, we focused on the provenance, in the current Italian HCV subtype 1a epidemic, of the NS3 resistance-associated variant (RAV) Q80K, known to interfere with the action of NS3/4A protease inhibitor simeprevir. HCV1a migration patterns were analysed using Bayesian phylodynamic tools, capitalising on newly generated and publicly available time and geo-referenced NS3 encoding virus genetic sequence data.

Results

Our results showed that both immigration and local circulation fuel the current Italian HCV1a epidemic. The United States and European continental lineages dominate import into Italy, with the latter taking the lead from the 1970s onwards. Since similar migration patterns were found for Q80K and other lineages, no clear differentiation of the risk for failing simeprevir can be made between patients based on their migration and travel history. Importantly, since HCV only occasionally recombines, these results are readily transferable to the genetic sequencing policy concerning NS5A RAVs.

Conclusions

The patient migration and travel history cannot be used to target only part of the HCV1a infected population for drug resistance testing before start of antiviral therapy. Consequently, it may be cost-effective to expand genotyping efforts to all HCV1a infected patients eligible for simeprevir-based therapies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-017-0913-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Xanthine dehydrogenase-1 silencing in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes promotes a blood feeding-induced adulticidal activity

Aedesaegypti has 2 genes encoding xanthine dehydrogenase (XDH). We analyzed XDH1 and XDH2 gene expression by real-time quantitative PCR in tissues from sugar- and blood-fed females. Differential XDH1 and XDH2 gene expression was observed in tissues dissected throughout a time course. We next exposed females to blood meals supplemented with allopurinol, a well-characterized XDH inhibitor. We also tested the effects of injecting double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) against XDH1, XDH2, or both. Disruption of XDH by allopurinol or XDH1 by RNA interference significantly affected mosquito survival, causing a disruption in blood digestion, excretion, oviposition, and reproduction. XDH1-deficient mosquitoes showed a persistence of serine proteases in the midgut at 48 h after blood feeding and a reduction in the uptake of vitellogenin by the ovaries. Surprisingly, analysis of the fat body from dsRNA-XDH1-injected mosquitoes fell into 2 groups: one group was characterized by a reduction of the XDH1 transcript, whereas the other group was characterized by an up-regulation of several transcripts, including XDH1, glutamine synthetase, alanine aminotransferase, catalase, superoxide dismutase, ornithine decarboxylase, glutamate receptor, and ammonia transporter. Our data demonstrate that XDH1 plays an essential role and that XDH1 has the potential to be used as a metabolic target for Ae.aegypti vector control.-Isoe, J., Petchampai, N., Isoe, Y. E., Co, K., Mazzalupo, S., Scaraffia, P. Y. Xanthine dehydrogenase-1 silencing in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes promotes a blood feeding-induced adulticidal activity.

Human to human transmission of arthropod-borne pathogens

Human-to-human (H2H) transmitted arthropod-borne pathogens are a growing burden worldwide, with malaria and dengue being the most common mosquito-borne H2H transmitted diseases. The ability of vectors to get infected by humans during a blood meal to further propel an epidemic depends on complex interactions between pathogens, vectors and humans, in which human interventions and demographic and environmental conditions play a significant role. Herein, we discuss the distal and proximal drivers affecting H2H vector-borne pathogen transmission and identify knowledge gaps and future perspectives.

Mayaro virus: a forest virus primed for a trip to the city?

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus). Infection by MAYV can produce Mayaro virus disease (MAYVD) which is usually a clinically diagnosed, acute, febrile illness associated with prolonged and painful joint inflammation and swelling. MAYVD may be clinically indistinguishable from dengue, chikungunya fever, malaria, rabies, measles or other arboviral diseases. The full spectrum of disease, sequelae, routes of infection, virus shedding and any rarer means of transmission remain undefined. MAYVD cases in humans have so far been localised to Central and South America, particularly regions in and around the Amazon basin. MAYV usually circulates in a sylvan cycle of forest mosquitoes and vertebrates, however it has also been found in more urban locations alongside anthropophilic (preferring humans) insect vectors. If transmission via anthropophilic mosquitoes becomes more efficient following viral change, or existing vectors change their habitat and biting habits, the risk of urban establishment and further spread into non-forested areas will grow. Surveillance, testing and vector control remain key to monitoring and preventing global spread and establishment. The possibility of MAYV becoming further urbanized is worthy of note, consideration and action to ensure MAYV does not spread beyond the forests and establish in the world's cities.

Emerging viral STIs among HIV-positive men who have sex with men: the era of hepatitis C virus and human papillomavirus

The number of infectious disease outbreaks and the number of unique pathogens responsible have significantly increased since the 1980s. HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) are a vulnerable population with regards to the introduction, spread and clinical consequences of (newly introduced) STIs. After the introduction of combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), the incidence of sexually acquired hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced anal cancers have significantly increased among HIV-positive MSM. The introduction and expansion of HCV is the result of increased sexual risk behaviour and sexually acquired mucosal trauma within large interconnected networks of HIV-positive MSM in particular. With the availability of cART, postexposure and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PEP and PrEP) and direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for HCV, less concern for HIV and HCV might require a new approach to develop effective behavioural intervention strategies among MSM. The marked rise in HPV-induced anal cancers can be ascribed to the long-term immunologic defects in an ageing population affected by HIV. More evidence with regards to effective treatment options for anal dysplastic lesions and the usefulness of anal malignancy screening programmes is urgently needed. Most anal cancers in the future generation of HIV-positive MSM could be prevented with the inclusion of boys in addition to girls in current HPV vaccination programmes.

Mapping internal connectivity through human migration in malaria endemic countries

Human mobility continues to increase in terms of volumes and reach, producing growing global connectivity. This connectivity hampers efforts to eliminate infectious diseases such as malaria through reintroductions of pathogens, and thus accounting for it becomes important in designing global, continental, regional, and national strategies. Recent works have shown that census-derived migration data provides a good proxy for internal connectivity, in terms of relative strengths of movement between administrative units, across temporal scales. To support global malaria eradication strategy efforts, here we describe the construction of an open access archive of estimated internal migration flows in endemic countries built through pooling of census microdata. These connectivity datasets, described here along with the approaches and methods used to create and validate them, are available both through the WorldPop website and the WorldPop Dataverse Repository.

The Multifactorial Background of Emerging Viral Infections with Neurological Manifestation

The events of the past year have highlighted the continuing importance of emerging virus infections on the diagnosis and treatment of neurological disease. This review focusses on clarifying the effects of the multiple overlapping factors that impact emergence, including viral richness, transmission opportunity, and establishment. Case studies of the West Nile, chikungunya, and Zika viruses are utilised to illustrate the dramatic effects of expansion in the range and geographical distribution of emerging infectious disease, the acquisition of new virus vectors, and of increasing human anthropogenic factors such as global transport, climate change, and mosquito abatement programmes on the regional spread and clinical consequences of emerging infectious disease.

Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings

Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however, no shared amino acid changes were found among the three currently available virus genomes from microcephaly cases. Municipality-level incidence data indicate that reports of suspected microcephaly in Brazil best correlate with ZIKV incidence around week 17 of pregnancy, although this correlation does not demonstrate causation. Our genetic description and analysis of ZIKV isolates in Brazil provide a baseline for future studies of the evolution and molecular epidemiology of this emerging virus in the Americas.

Explaining the geographic spread of emerging epidemics: a framework for comparing viral phylogenies and environmental landscape data

Background

Phylogenetic analysis is now an important tool in the study of viral outbreaks. It can reconstruct epidemic history when surveillance epidemiology data are sparse, and can indicate transmission linkages among infections that may not otherwise be evident. However, a remaining challenge is to develop an analytical framework that can test hypotheses about the effect of environmental variables on pathogen spatial spread. Recent phylogeographic approaches can reconstruct the history of virus dispersal from sampled viral genomes and infer the locations of ancestral infections. Such methods provide a unique source of spatio-temporal information, and are exploited here.

Results

We present and apply a new statistical framework that combines genomic and geographic data to test the impact of environmental variables on the mode and tempo of pathogen dispersal during emerging epidemics. First, the spatial history of an emerging pathogen is estimated using standard phylogeographic methods. The inferred dispersal path for each phylogenetic lineage is then assigned a “weight” using environmental data (e.g. altitude, land cover). Next, tests measure the association between each environmental variable and lineage movement. A randomisation procedure is used to assess statistical confidence and we validate this approach using simulated data. We apply our new framework to a set of gene sequences from an epidemic of rabies virus in North American raccoons. We test the impact of six different environmental variables on this epidemic and demonstrate that elevation is associated with a slower rabies spread in a natural population.

Conclusion

This study shows that it is possible to integrate genomic and environmental data in order to test hypotheses concerning the mode and tempo of virus dispersal during emerging epidemics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12859-016-0924-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Epidemiology of Chikungunya Virus in Bahia, Brazil, 2014-2015

Chikungunya is an emerging arbovirus that is characterized into four lineages. One of these, the Asian genotype, has spread rapidly in the Americas after its introduction in the Saint Martin island in October 2013. Unexpectedly, a new lineage, the East-Central-South African genotype, was introduced from Angola in the end of May 2014 in Feira de Santana (FSA), the second largest city in Bahia state, Brazil, where over 5,500 cases have now been reported. Number weekly cases of clinically confirmed CHIKV in FSA were analysed alongside with urban district of residence of CHIKV cases reported between June 2014 and October collected from the municipality's surveillance network. The number of cases per week from June 2014 until September 2015 reveals two distinct transmission waves. The first wave ignited in June and transmission ceased by December 2014. However, a second transmission wave started in January and peaked in May 2015, 8 months after the first wave peak, and this time in phase with Dengue virus and Zika virus transmission, which ceased when minimum temperature dropped to approximately 15°C. We find that shorter travelling times from the district where the outbreak first emerged to other urban districts of FSA were strongly associated with incidence in each district in 2014 (R(2)).

Epidemiology of Chikungunya Virus in Bahia, Brazil, 2014-2015

Chikungunya is an emerging arbovirus that is characterized into four lineages. One of these, the Asian genotype, has spread rapidly in the Americas after its introduction in the Saint Martin island in October 2013. Unexpectedly, a new lineage, the East-Central-South African genotype, was introduced from Angola in the end of May 2014 in Feira de Santana (FSA), the second largest city in Bahia state, Brazil, where over 5,500 cases have now been reported. Number weekly cases of clinically confirmed CHIKV in FSA were analysed alongside with urban district of residence of CHIKV cases reported between June 2014 and October collected from the municipality's surveillance network. The number of cases per week from June 2014 until September 2015 reveals two distinct transmission waves. The first wave ignited in June and transmission ceased by December 2014. However, a second transmission wave started in January and peaked in May 2015, 8 months after the first wave peak, and this time in phase with Dengue virus and Zika virus transmission, which ceased when minimum temperature dropped to approximately 15°C. We find that shorter travelling times from the district where the outbreak first emerged to other urban districts of FSA were strongly associated with incidence in each district in 2014 (R(2)).