Mapping global variation in dengue transmission intensity

Hyperinflammatory Syndrome, Natural Killer Cell Function, and Genetic Polymorphisms in the Pathogenesis of Severe Dengue

BACKGROUND

Severe dengue, characterized by shock and organ dysfunction, is driven by an excessive host immune response. We investigated the role of hyperinflammation in dengue pathogenesis.

METHODS

Patients recruited into an observational study were divided into 3 plasma leak severity grades. Hyperinflammatory biomarkers were measured at 4 time points. Frequencies, activation, and cytotoxic potential of natural killer (NK) cells were analyzed by flow cytometry. RNA was extracted from sorted CD56+ NK cells and libraries were prepared using SMART-Seq and sequenced using HiSeq3000 (Illumina).

RESULTS

Sixty-nine patients were included (grade 0, 42 patients; grade 1, 19 patients; grade 2, 8 patients). Patients with grade 2 leakage had higher biomarkers than grade 0, including higher peak ferritin levels (83.3% vs 45.2%) and H-scores (median, 148.5 vs 105.5). NK cells from grade 2 patients exhibited decreased expression of perforin and granzyme B and activation markers. RNA sequencing revealed 3 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in NK cell functional genes associated with more severe leakage-NK cell lectin-like receptor K1 gene (KLRK1) and perforin 1 (PRF1).

CONCLUSIONS

Features of hyperinflammation are associated with dengue severity, including higher biomarkers, impaired NK cell function, and polymorphisms in NK cell cytolytic function genes (KLRK1 and PRF1). Trials of immunomodulatory therapy in these patients is now warranted.

Machine-Learning-Based Forecasting of Dengue Fever in Brazilian Cities Using Epidemiologic and Meteorological Variables

Dengue is a serious public health concern in Brazil and globally. In the absence of a universal vaccine or specific treatments, prevention relies on vector control and disease surveillance. Accurate and early forecasts can help reduce the spread of the disease. In this study, we developed a model for predicting monthly dengue cases in Brazilian cities 1 month ahead, using data from 2007-2019. We compared different machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods using epidemiologic and meteorological variables. We found that different models worked best in different cities, and a random forests model trained on monthly dengue cases performed best overall. It produced lower errors than a seasonal naive baseline model, gradient boosting regression, a feed-forward neural network, or support vector regression. For each city, we computed the mean absolute error between predictions and true monthly numbers of dengue cases on the test data set. The median error across all cities was 12.2 cases. This error was reduced to 11.9 when selecting the optimal combination of algorithm and input features for each city individually. Machine learning and especially decision tree ensemble models may contribute to dengue surveillance in Brazil, as they produce low out-of-sample prediction errors for a geographically diverse set of cities.

In silico testing of flavonoids as potential inhibitors of protease and helicase domains of dengue and Zika viruses

Background

Dengue and Zika are two major vector-borne diseases. Dengue causes up to 25,000 deaths and nearly a 100 million cases worldwide per year, while the incidence of Zika has increased in recent years. Although Zika has been associated to fetal microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome both it and dengue have common clinical symptoms such as severe headache, retroocular pain, muscle and join pain, nausea, vomiting, and rash. Currently, vaccines have been designed and antivirals have been identified for these diseases but there still need for more options for treatment. Our group previously obtained some fractions from medicinal plants that blocked dengue virus (DENV) infection in vitro. In the present work, we explored the possible targets by molecular docking a group of molecules contained in the plant fractions against DENV and Zika virus (ZIKV) NS3-helicase (NS3-hel) and NS3-protease (NS3-pro) structures. Finally, the best ligands were evaluated by molecular dynamic simulations.

Methods

To establish if these molecules could act as wide spectrum inhibitors, we used structures from four DENV serotypes and from ZIKV. ADFR 1.2 rc1 software was used for docking analysis; subsequently molecular dynamics analysis was carried out using AMBER20.

Results

Docking suggested that 3,5-dicaffeoylquinic acid (DCA01), quercetin 3-rutinoside (QNR05) and quercetin 3,7-diglucoside (QND10) can tightly bind to both NS3-hel and NS3-pro. However, after a molecular dynamics analysis, tight binding was not maintained for NS3-hel. In contrast, NS3-pro from two dengue serotypes, DENV3 and DENV4, retained both QNR05 and QND10 which converged near the catalytic site. After the molecular dynamics analysis, both ligands presented a stable trajectory over time, in contrast to DCA01. These findings allowed us to work on the design of a molecule called MOD10, using the QND10 skeleton to improve the interaction in the active site of the NS3-pro domain, which was verified through molecular dynamics simulation, turning out to be better than QNR05 and QND10, both in interaction and in the trajectory.

Discussion

Our results suggests that NS3-hel RNA empty binding site is not a good target for drug design as the binding site located through docking is too big. However, our results indicate that QNR05 and QND10 could block NS3-pro activity in DENV and ZIKV. In the interaction with these molecules, the sub-pocket-2 remained unoccupied in NS3-pro, leaving opportunity for improvement and drug design using the quercetin scaffold. The analysis of the NS3-pro in complex with MOD10 show a molecule that exerts contact with sub-pockets S1, S1', S2 and S3, increasing its affinity and apparent stability on NS3-pro.

Linear and Machine Learning modelling for spatiotemporal disease predictions: Force-of-Infection of Chagas disease

Background

Chagas disease is a long-lasting disease with a prolonged asymptomatic period. Cumulative indices of infection such as prevalence do not shed light on the current epidemiological situation, as they integrate infection over long periods. Instead, metrics such as the Force-of-Infection (FoI) provide information about the rate at which susceptible people become infected and permit sharper inference about temporal changes in infection rates. FoI is estimated by fitting (catalytic) models to available age-stratified serological (ground-truth) data. Predictive FoI modelling frameworks are then used to understand spatial and temporal trends indicative of heterogeneity in transmission and changes effected by control interventions. Ideally, these frameworks should be able to propagate uncertainty and handle spatiotemporal issues.

Methodology/principal findings

We compare three methods in their ability to propagate uncertainty and provide reliable estimates of FoI for Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study: two Machine Learning (ML) methods (Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Random Forest (RF)), and a Linear Model (LM) framework that we had developed previously. Our analyses show consistent results between the three modelling methods under scrutiny. The predictors (explanatory variables) selected, as well as the location of the most uncertain FoI values, were coherent across frameworks. RF was faster than BRT and LM, and provided estimates with fewer extreme values when extrapolating to areas where no ground-truth data were available. However, BRT and RF were less efficient at propagating uncertainty.

Conclusions/significance

The choice of FoI predictive models will depend on the objectives of the analysis. ML methods will help characterise the mean behaviour of the estimates, while LM will provide insight into the uncertainty surrounding such estimates. Our approach can be extended to the modelling of FoI patterns in other Chagas disease-endemic countries and to other infectious diseases for which serosurveys are regularly conducted for surveillance.

Metrics such as the per susceptible rate of infection acquisition (Force-of-Infection) are crucial to understand the current epidemiological situation and the impact of control interventions for long-lasting diseases in which the infection event might have occurred many years previously, such as Chagas disease. FoI values are estimated from serological age profiles, often obtained in a few locations. However, when using predictive models to estimate the FoI over time and space (including areas where serosurveys had not been conducted), methods able to handle and propagate uncertainty must be implemented; otherwise, overconfident predictions may be obtained. Although Machine Learning (ML) methods are powerful tools, they may not be able to entirely handle this challenge. Therefore, the use of ML must be considered in relation to the aims of the analyses. ML will be more relevant to characterise the central trends of the estimates while Linear Models will help identify areas where further serosurveys should be conducted to improve the reliability of the predictions. Our approaches can be used to generate FoI predictions in other Chagas disease-endemic countries as well as in other diseases for which serological surveillance data are collected.

Estimating dengue transmission intensity from serological data: A comparative analysis using mixture and catalytic models

Background

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global health concern of increasing magnitude. To target intervention strategies, accurate estimates of the force of infection (FOI) are necessary. Catalytic models have been widely used to estimate DENV FOI and rely on a binary classification of serostatus as seropositive or seronegative, according to pre-defined antibody thresholds. Previous work has demonstrated the use of thresholds can cause serostatus misclassification and biased estimates. In contrast, mixture models do not rely on thresholds and use the full distribution of antibody titres. To date, there has been limited application of mixture models to estimate DENV FOI.

Methods

We compare the application of mixture models and time-constant and time-varying catalytic models to simulated data and to serological data collected in Vietnam from 2004 to 2009 (N ≥ 2178) and Indonesia in 2014 (N = 3194).

Results

The simulation study showed larger mean FOI estimate bias from the time-constant and time-varying catalytic models (-0.007 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): -0.069, 0.029) and -0.006 (95% CI -0.095, 0.043)) than from the mixture model (0.001 (95% CI -0.036, 0.065)). Coverage of the true FOI was > 95% for estimates from both the time-varying catalytic and mixture model, however the latter had reduced uncertainty. When applied to real data from Vietnam, the mixture model frequently produced higher FOI and seroprevalence estimates than the catalytic models.

Conclusions

Our results suggest mixture models represent valid, potentially less biased, alternatives to catalytic models, which could be particularly useful when estimating FOI from data with largely overlapping antibody titre distributions.

Characterising the transmission intensity of dengue virus is essential to inform the implementation of interventions, such as vector control and vaccination, and to better understand the environmental drivers of transmission locally and globally. It is therefore important to understand how methodological differences and model choice may influence the accuracy of estimates of transmission intensity. Using a simulation study, we assessed the performance of catalytic and mixture models to reconstruct the force of infection (FOI) from simulated antibody titre data. Furthermore, we estimated the FOI of dengue virus from antibody titre data collected in Vietnam and Indonesia. The models produced consistent estimates of FOI when they were applied to data with clear separation between the distributions of seronegative and seropositive antibody titres. We observed greater bias in FOI estimates obtained from catalytic models than from mixture models when they were applied to data with high overlap in the bimodal distribution of antibody titres. Our results indicate that mixture models could be preferential to estimate dengue virus FOI when the antibody titre distributions of the seronegative and seropositive components largely overlap.

Potential impact of SARS COV-2 infection on the performance of serological assays used to diagnose arboviral diseases

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first described in December 2019, in China. In addition, there has also been an increase in arboviral infections in recent years. As both infections have similar symptoms, misdiagnosis may occur if both outbreaks occur at the same time.

Objective

Our objective was to assess the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection on diagnostic assays used for arboviral diseases.

Materials and methods

We conducted this study by testing samples obtained during the precovid phase (before November 2019) and during the covid period (after February 2020). Samples were further grouped as those with acute febrile illness (AFI) and those without. All samples were tested for anti SARS-CoV-2 Ab, Chikungunya and Dengue specific IgM antibodies to evaluate potential serological cross-reactions between COVID-19 and Arbovirus specific antibodies.

Results

One sample from the 62 cases of AFI during the pre-covid phase showed seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Also, in asymptomatic individuals, arboviral seropositivity was significantly higher in the COVID period samples (22%) compared to pre-COVID samples (3%).

Conclusion

Due to similar clinical symptoms and cross reactions in both infections, relying solely on serological testing for arboviral diagnosis may be less sensitive; other clinical and laboratory parameters may be required.

Antibody Fc characteristics and effector functions correlate with protection from symptomatic dengue virus type 3 infection

Preexisting cross-reactive antibodies have been implicated in both protection and pathogenesis during subsequent infections with different dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV1-4). Nonetheless, humoral immune correlates and mechanisms of protection have remained elusive. Using a systems serology approach to evaluate humoral responses, we profiled plasma collected before inapparent or symptomatic secondary DENV3 infection from our pediatric cohort in Nicaragua. Children protected from symptomatic infections had more anti-envelope (E) and anti-nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) total immunoglobulin G (IgG), IgG4, and greater Fc effector functions than those with symptoms. Fc effector functions were also associated with protection from hemorrhagic manifestations in the pre-symptomatic group. Furthermore, in vitro virological assays using these plasma samples revealed that protection mediated by antibody-dependent complement deposition was associated with both lysis of virions and DENV-infected cells. These data suggest that E- and NS1-specific Fc functions may serve as correlates of protection, which can be potentially applied toward the design and evaluation of dengue vaccines.

Estimating the Time Reproduction Number in Kupang City Indonesia, 2016–2020, and Assessing the Effects of Vaccination and Different Wolbachia Strains on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

The use of a vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium have been proposed as new strategies against dengue. However, the performance of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence may depend on the Wolbachia strains. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of two Wolbachia strains which are WMel and WAu, in combination with the vaccine, has been assessed by using an age-dependent mathematical model. An effective reproduction number has been calculated using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm. The results revealed that the time reproduction number varies overtime with the highest one being around 2.75. Moreover, it has also found that use of the vaccine and Wolbachia possibly leads to dengue elimination. Furthermore, vaccination on one group only reduces dengue incidence in that group but dengue infection in the other group is still high. Furthermore, the performance of the WAu strain is better than the WMel strain in reducing dengue incidence. However, both strains can still be used for dengue elimination strategies depending on the level of loss of Wolbachia infections in both strains.

Strategies to Mitigate Establishment under the Wolbachia Incompatible Insect Technique

The Incompatible Insect Technique (IIT) strategy involves the release of male mosquitoes infected with the bacterium Wolbachia. Regular releases of male Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes can lead to the suppression of mosquito populations, thereby reducing the risk of transmission of vector-borne diseases such as dengue. However, due to imperfect sex-sorting under IIT, fertile Wolbachia-infected female mosquitoes may potentially be unintentionally released into the environment, which may result in replacement and failure to suppress the mosquito populations. As such, mitigating Wolbachia establishment requires a combination of IIT with other strategies. We introduced a simple compartmental model to simulate ex-ante mosquito population dynamics subjected to a Wolbachia-IIT programme. In silico, we explored the risk of replacement, and strategies that could mitigate the establishment of the released Wolbachia strain in the mosquito population. Our results suggest that mitigation may be achieved through the application of a sterile insect technique. Our simulations indicate that these interventions do not override the intended wild type suppression of the IIT approach. These findings will inform policy makers of possible ways to mitigate the potential establishment of Wolbachia using the IIT population control strategy.

Assessing the role of multiple mechanisms increasing the age of dengue cases in Thailand

The age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment.

The mean age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases increased considerably in Thailand from 8.1 to 24.3 y between 1981 and 2017 (mean annual increase of 0.45 y). Alternative proposed explanations for this trend, such as changes in surveillance practices, reduced mosquito–human contact, and shifts in population demographics, have different implications for global dengue epidemiology. To evaluate the contribution of each of these hypothesized mechanisms to the observed data, we developed 20 nested epidemiological models of dengue virus infection, allowing for variation over time in population demographics, infection hazards, and reporting rates. We also quantified the effect of removing or retaining each source of variation in simulations of the age trajectory. Shifts in the age structure of susceptibility explained 58% of the observed change in age. Adding heterogeneous reporting by age and reductions in per-serotype infection hazard to models with shifts in susceptibility explained an additional 42%. Reductions in infection hazards were mostly driven by changes in the number of infectious individuals at any time (another consequence of shifting age demographics) rather than changes in the transmissibility of individual infections. We conclude that the demographic transition drives the overwhelming majority of the observed change as it changes both the age structure of susceptibility and the number of infectious individuals. With the projected Thai population age structure, our results suggest a continuing increase in age of DHF cases, shifting the burden toward individuals with more comorbidity. These insights into dengue epidemiology may be relevant to many regions of the globe currently undergoing comparable changes in population demographics.

SUMOylation Is Essential for Dengue Virus Replication and Transmission in the Mosquito Aedes aegypti

Small ubiquitin-like modifier (SUMO) is a reversible post-translational protein modifier. Protein SUMOylation regulates a wide variety of cellular processes and is important for controlling virus replication. Earlier studies suggest that dengue virus envelope protein interacts with Ubc9, the sole E2-conjugating enzyme required for protein SUMOylation in mammalian cells. However, little is known about the effect of protein SUMOylation on dengue virus replication in the major dengue vector, Aedes aegypti. Thus, in this study, we investigated the impact of protein SUMOylation on dengue virus replication in A. aegypti. The transcription of A. aegypti Ubc9 was significantly increased in the midgut after a normal blood meal. Silencing AaUbc9 resulted in significant inhibition of dengue virus NS1 protein production, viral genome transcription, and reduced viral titer in the mosquito saliva. In addition, we showed that dengue virus E proteins and prM proteins were SUMOylated post-infection. The amino acid residues K51 and K241 of dengue virus E protein were essential for protein SUMOylation. Taken together, our results reveal that protein SUMOylation contributes to dengue virus replication and transmission in the mosquito A. aegypti. This study introduces the possibility that protein SUMOylation is beneficial for virus replication and facilitates virus transmission from the mosquito.

High DDT resistance without apparent association to kdr and Glutathione-S-transferase (GST) gene mutations in Aedes aegypti population at hotel compounds in Zanzibar

Global efforts to control Aedes mosquito-transmitted pathogens still rely heavily on insecticides. However, available information on vector resistance is mainly restricted to mosquito populations located in residential and public areas, whereas commercial settings, such as hotels are overlooked. This may obscure the real magnitude of the insecticide resistance problem and lead to ineffective vector control and resistance management. We investigated the profile of insecticide susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes occurring at selected hotel compounds on Zanzibar Island. At least 100 adults Ae. aegypti females from larvae collected at four hotel compounds were exposed to papers impregnated with discriminant concentrations of DDT (4%), permethrin (0.75%), 0.05 deltamethrin (0.05%), propoxur (0.1%) and bendiocarb (0.1%) to determine their susceptibility profile. Allele-specific qPCR and sequencing analysis were applied to determine the possible association between observed resistance and presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene (VGSC) linked to DDT/pyrethroid cross-resistance. Additionally, we explored the possible involvement of Glutathione-S-Transferase gene (GSTe2) mutations for the observed resistance profile. In vivo resistance bioassay indicated that Ae. aegypti at studied sites were highly resistant to DDT, mortality rate ranged from 26.3% to 55.3% and, moderately resistant to deltamethrin with a mortality rate between 79% to and 100%. However, genotyping of kdr mutations affecting the voltage-gated sodium channel only showed a low frequency of the V1016G mutation (n = 5; 0.97%). Moreover, for GSTe2, seven non-synonymous SNPs were detected (L111S, C115F, P117S, E132A, I150V, E178A and A198E) across two distinct haplotypes, but none of these were significantly associated with the observed resistance to DDT. Our findings suggest that cross-resistance to DDT/deltamethrin at hotel compounds in Zanzibar is not primarily mediated by mutations in VGSC. Moreover, the role of identified GSTe2 mutations in the resistance against DDT remains inconclusive. We encourage further studies to investigate the role of other potential insecticide resistance markers.

Available information on mosquito resistance to insecticides is mainly restricted to residential and public areas, whereas commercial settings, such as hotels are overlooked. This may hide the real size of an insecticide resistance problem and lead to ineffective mosquito control. We investigated insecticide susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes occurring at selected hotel compounds on Zanzibar Island. We also looked at whether resistance occurred in mosquitoes with gene mutations for two proteins (voltage-gated sodium channels and glutathione-S-transferase) that are known to cause resistance to insecticides in other parts of the world. The Ae. aegypti mosquitoes collected from hotels were highly resistant to DDT, and moderately and possibly resistant to deltamethrin and propoxur, respectively. However, resistance to these insecticides was not linked to mutations in either of the studied genes. The presence of insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti in hotel compounds on Zanzibar is concerning and shows that these areas can act as sources of resistant mosquitoes. More needs to be done to establish the underlying causes for insecticide resistance in hotel Ae. aegypti populations, and this information can then be used to design measures that prevent resistance from becoming more widespread on Zanzibar.

Current Development and Challenges of Tetravalent Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccines

Dengue is the most common arboviral disease caused by one of four distinct but closely related dengue viruses (DENV) and places significant economic and public health burdens in the endemic areas. A dengue vaccine will be important in advancing disease control. However, the effort has been challenged by the requirement to induce effective protection against all four DENV serotypes and the potential adverse effect due to the phenomenon that partial immunity to DENV may worsen the symptoms upon subsequent heterotypic infection. Currently, the most advanced dengue vaccines are all tetravalent and based on recombinant live attenuated viruses. CYD-TDV, developed by Sanofi Pasteur, has been approved but is limited for use in individuals with prior dengue infection. Two other tetravalent live attenuated vaccine candidates: TAK-003 by Takeda and TV003 by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have completed phase 3 and phase 2 clinical trials, respectively. This review focuses on the designs and evaluation of TAK-003 and TV003 vaccine candidates in humans in comparison to the licensed CYD-TDV vaccine. We highlight specific lessons from existing studies and challenges that must be overcome in order to develop a dengue vaccine that confers effective and balanced protection against all four DENV serotypes but with minimal adverse effects.

Capeding M, Padilla CD, Sasmono RT, Hafalla JCR, Hibberd ML. Combining rapid diagnostic tests to estimate primary and post-primary dengue immune status at the point of care

BACKGROUND

Characterising dengue virus (DENV) infection history at the point of care is challenging as it relies on intensive laboratory techniques. We investigated how combining different rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can be used to accurately determine the primary and post-primary DENV immune status of reporting patients during diagnosis.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Serum from cross-sectional surveys of acute suspected dengue patients in Indonesia (N:200) and Vietnam (N: 1,217) were assayed using dengue laboratory assays and RDTs. Using logistic regression modelling, we determined the probability of being DENV NS1, IgM and IgG RDT positive according to corresponding laboratory viremia, IgM and IgG ELISA metrics. Laboratory test thresholds for RDT positivity/negativity were calculated using Youden's J index and were utilized to estimate the RDT outcomes in patients from the Philippines, where only data for viremia, IgM and IgG were available (N:28,326). Lastly, the probabilities of being primary or post-primary according to every outcome using all RDTs, by day of fever, were calculated. Combining NS1, IgM and IgG RDTs captured 94.6% (52/55) and 95.4% (104/109) of laboratory-confirmed primary and post-primary DENV cases, respectively, during the first 5 days of fever. Laboratory test predicted, and actual, RDT outcomes had high agreement (79.5% (159/200)). Among patients from the Philippines, different combinations of estimated RDT outcomes were indicative of post-primary and primary immune status. Overall, IgG RDT positive results were confirmatory of post-primary infections. In contrast, IgG RDT negative results were suggestive of both primary and post-primary infections on days 1-2 of fever, yet were confirmatory of primary infections on days 3-5 of fever.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate how the primary and post-primary DENV immune status of reporting patients can be estimated at the point of care by combining NS1, IgM and IgG RDTs and considering the days since symptoms onset. This framework has the potential to strengthen surveillance operations and dengue prognosis, particularly in low resource settings.

Anders K, Nguyen L, Brown-Kenyon J, Caird A, McLean BJ, Iturbe-Ormaetxe I, Ritchie SA, O'Neill SL, Ryan PA. Environmental factors influence the local establishment of Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in two small communities in central Vietnam

Background: The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and subsequently shown to reduce transmission of dengue and other pathogens, under both laboratory and field conditions. Here we describe the entomological outcomes of wMel Wolbachia mosquito releases in two small communities in Nha Trang City in central Vietnam. Methods: The wMel strain of Wolbachia was backcrossed into local Aedes aegypti genotype and mosquito releases were undertaken by community members or by staff. Field monitoring was undertaken to track Wolbachia establishment in local Ae. aegypti mosquito populations. Ecological studies were undertaken to assess relationships between environmental factors and the spatial and temporal variability in Wolbachia infection prevalence in mosquitoes. Results: Releases of wMel Wolbachia Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in two small communities in Nha Trang City resulted in the initial establishment of Wolbachia in the local Ae. aegypti mosquito populations, followed by seasonal fluctuations in Wolbachia prevalence. There was significant small-scale spatial heterogeneity in Wolbachia infection prevalence in the Tri Nguyen Village site, resulting in the loss of wMel Wolbachia infection in mosquitoes in north and center areas, despite Wolbachia prevalence remaining high in mosquitoes in the south area. In the second site, Vinh Luong Ward, Wolbachia has persisted at a high level in mosquitoes throughout this site despite similar seasonal fluctuations in wMel Wolbachia prevalence. Conclusion: Seasonal variation in Wolbachia infection prevalence in mosquitoes was associated with elevated temperature conditions, and was possibly due to imperfect maternal transmission of Wolbachia. Heterogeneity in Wolbachia infection prevalence was found throughout one site, and indicates additional factors may influence Wolbachia establishment.

Acute kidney injury associated with dengue virus infection: a review

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is one of the least studied complications of dengue, but it carries high mortality rates and prolonged hospital stay. Due to the severity of this complication, the risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the increasing number of dengue cases reported worldwide, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Southeast Asia and South America, including Brazil, we embarked on this narrative review, aimed to update the epidemiology of AKI associated with dengue, elucidate the main pathophysiological mechanisms of AKI caused by the dengue virus infection, as well as discuss useful information on the prevention and management of AKI in patients with dengue.

Short-term and long-term epidemiological impacts of sustained vector control in various dengue endemic settings: A modelling study

As the most widespread viral infection transmitted by the Aedes mosquitoes, dengue has been estimated to cause 51 million febrile disease cases globally each year. Although sustained vector control remains key to reducing the burden of dengue, current understanding of the key factors that explain the observed variation in the short- and long-term vector control effectiveness across different transmission settings remains limited. We used a detailed individual-based model to simulate dengue transmission with and without sustained vector control over a 30-year time frame, under different transmission scenarios. Vector control effectiveness was derived for different time windows within the 30-year intervention period. We then used the extreme gradient boosting algorithm to predict the effectiveness of vector control given the simulation parameters, and the resulting machine learning model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations. According to our simulation outputs, dengue transmission would be nearly eliminated during the early stage of sustained and intensive vector control, but over time incidence would gradually bounce back to the pre-intervention level unless the intervention is implemented at a very high level of intensity. The time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control, but also by the pre-intervention transmission intensity and the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Moreover, the impact of many transmission model parameters on the intervention effectiveness is shown to be modified by the intensity of vector control, as well as to vary over time. Our study has identified some of the critical drivers for the difference in the time-varying effectiveness of sustained vector control across different dengue endemic settings, and the insights obtained will be useful to inform future model-based studies that seek to predict the impact of dengue vector control in their local contexts.

Sustained vector control remains key to reducing the global burden of dengue. However, current understanding of the main drivers for the differences in the time-varying epidemiological impact of dengue vector control across different transmission settings remains limited. We developed an agent-based model and showed that in the absence of a highly effective intervention technology that is able to eliminate dengue transmission even in an entirely susceptible population, a fixed level of reduction in the Aedes abundance would only cause temporary reduction in dengue incidence. Furthermore, the time point at which intervention ceases to be effective is strongly influenced not only by the intensity of vector control and the pre-intervention transmission intensity, but also by the individual-level heterogeneity in biting risk. Besides, the intensity of vector control interacts with the other two factors mentioned earlier, and the interaction magnitude also changes over time. These insights will be useful to inform future modelling studies that seek to predict the impact of Aedes control on dengue transmission in their local contexts, and have important implications for the design of intervention strategies to achieve sustained reduction in the global burden of dengue.

Development of Novel Dengue NS1 Multiplex Lateral Flow Immunoassay to Differentiate Serotypes in Serum of Acute Phase Patients and Infected Mosquitoes

Dengue is among the most rapidly spreading arboviral disease in the world. A low-cost, easy to use point-of-care diagnostic tool for the detection and differentiation of dengue virus serotypes could improve clinical management, disease prevention, epidemiological surveillance, and outbreak monitoring, particularly in regions where multiple serotypes co-circulate. Despite widespread deployment, no commercial dengue antigen diagnostic test has proven effective in differentiating among dengue virus serotypes. In the current study, we first established mAb pairs and developed a multiplex lateral flow immunoassay for the simultaneous detection of the dengue viral NS1 antigen and identification of serotype. The proposed system, called Dengue serotype NS1 Multiplex LFIA, provides high sensitivity and specificity. In testing for JEV, ZIKV, YFV, WNV, and CHIKV, the multiplex LFIA gave no indication of cross- reactivity with cell culture supernatants of other flaviviruses or chikungunya virus. In analyzing 187 samples from patients suspected of dengue infection, the detection sensitivity for serotype D1 to D4 was 90.0%, 88.24%, 82.61%, and 83.33% and serotype specificity was 98.74%, 96.13%, 99.39%, and 97.04%, respectively. Our multiplex LFIA can also identify mono- and co-infection of different serotype of dengue viruses in mosquitoes. The proposed Multiplex LFIA provides a simple tool for the rapid detection of dengue serotypes and in the differential diagnosis of fever patients in regions where medical resources are limited and/or multiple DENVs co-circulate.

Periodic synchronisation of dengue epidemics in Thailand over the last 5 decades driven by temperature and immunity

The spatial distribution of dengue and its vectors (spp. Aedes) may be the widest it has ever been, and projections suggest that climate change may allow the expansion to continue. However, less work has been done to understand how climate variability and change affects dengue in regions where the pathogen is already endemic. In these areas, the waxing and waning of immunity has a large impact on temporal dynamics of cases of dengue haemorrhagic fever. Here, we use 51 years of data across 72 provinces and characterise spatiotemporal patterns of dengue in Thailand, where dengue has caused almost 1.5 million cases over the last 30 years, and examine the roles played by temperature and dynamics of immunity in giving rise to those patterns. We find that timescales of multiannual oscillations in dengue vary in space and time and uncover an interesting spatial phenomenon: Thailand has experienced multiple, periodic synchronisation events. We show that although patterns in synchrony of dengue are similar to those observed in temperature, the relationship between the two is most consistent during synchronous periods, while during asynchronous periods, temperature plays a less prominent role. With simulations from temperature-driven models, we explore how dynamics of immunity interact with temperature to produce the observed patterns in synchrony. The simulations produced patterns in synchrony that were similar to observations, supporting an important role of immunity. We demonstrate that multiannual oscillations produced by immunity can lead to asynchronous dynamics and that synchrony in temperature can then synchronise these dengue dynamics. At higher mean temperatures, immune dynamics can be more predominant, and dengue dynamics more insensitive to multiannual fluctuations in temperature, suggesting that with rising mean temperatures, dengue dynamics may become increasingly asynchronous. These findings can help underpin predictions of disease patterns as global temperatures rise.

This study shows that spatially large-scale shifts in temperature can synchronize dengue dynamics across Thailand; however, as average temperatures rise, dengue dynamics may increasingly be dictated by dynamics of immunity, which may in turn mean fewer synchronous outbreaks in the future.

Knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of severe dengue impede vaccine evaluation

The most severe consequences of dengue virus infection include shock, haemorrhage, and major organ failure; however, the frequency of these manifestations varies, and the relative contribution of pre-existing anti-dengue virus antibodies, virus characteristics, and host factors (including age and comorbidities) are not well understood. Reliable characterisation of the epidemiology of severe dengue first depends on the use of consistent definitions of disease severity. As vaccine trials have shown, severe dengue is a crucial interventional endpoint, yet the infrequency of its occurrence necessitates the inclusion of thousands of study participants to appropriately compare its frequency among participants who have and have not been vaccinated. Hospital admission is frequently used as a proxy for severe dengue; however, lack of specificity and variability in clinical practices limit the reliability of this approach. Although previous infection with a dengue virus is the best characterised risk factor for developing severe dengue, the influence of the timing between dengue virus infections and the sequence of dengue virus infections on disease severity is only beginning to be elucidated. To improve our understanding of the diverse factors that shape the clinical spectrum of disease resulting from dengue virus infection, prospective, community-based and clinic-based immunological, virological, genetic, and clinical studies across a range of ages and geographical regions are needed.

Uncovering the Burden of Dengue in Africa: Considerations on Magnitude, Misdiagnosis, and Ancestry

Dengue is a re-emerging neglected disease of major public health importance. This review highlights important considerations for dengue disease in Africa, including epidemiology and underestimation of disease burden in African countries, issues with malaria misdiagnosis and co-infections, and potential evidence of genetic protection from severe dengue disease in populations of African descent. The findings indicate that dengue virus prevalence in African countries and populations may be more widespread than reported data suggests, and that the Aedes mosquito vectors appear to be increasing in dissemination and number. Changes in climate, population, and plastic pollution are expected to worsen the dengue situation in Africa. Dengue misdiagnosis is also a problem in Africa, especially due to the typical non-specific clinical presentation of dengue leading to misdiagnosis as malaria. Finally, research suggests that a protective genetic component against severe dengue exists in African descent populations, but further studies should be conducted to strengthen this association in various populations, taking into consideration socioeconomic factors that may contribute to these findings. The main takeaway is that Africa should not be overlooked when it comes to dengue, and more attention and resources should be devoted to this disease in Africa.

Magnetic Field-Enhanced Agglutination Readout Combined With Isothermal Reverse Transcription Recombinase Polymerase Amplification for Rapid and Sensitive Molecular Detection of Dengue Virus

Among the numerous molecular diagnostic methods, isothermal reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification (RT-RPA) is a simple method that has high sensitivity and avoids the use of expensive instruments. However, detection of amplified genomes often requires a fluorescence readout on costly readers or migration on a lateral flow strip with a subjective visual reading. Aiming to establish a new approach to rapidly and sensitively detect viruses, we combined RT-RPA with a magnetic field-enhanced agglutination (MFEA) assay and assessed the ability of this method to detect the dengue virus (DENV). Magnetization cycles accelerated the capture of amplified DENV genomes between functionalized magnetic nanoparticles by a fast chaining process to less than 5 min; the agglutination was quantified by simple turbidimetry. A total of 37 DENV RNA+ and 30 DENV RNA− samples were evaluated with this combined method. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.19% (95% CI, 72.75–100.00%) and 100% (95% CI, 81.74–100.00%), respectively. This approach provides a solution for developing innovative diagnostic assays for the molecular detection of emerging infections.

Spatiotemporal variations in exposure: Chagas disease in Colombia as a case study

Age-stratified serosurvey data are often used to understand spatiotemporal trends in disease incidence and exposure through estimating the Force-of-Infection (FoI). Typically, median or mean FoI estimates are used as the response variable in predictive models, often overlooking the uncertainty in estimated FoI values when fitting models and evaluating their predictive ability. To assess how this uncertainty impact predictions, we compared three approaches with three levels of uncertainty integration. We propose a performance indicator to assess how predictions reflect initial uncertainty.

In Colombia, 76 serosurveys (1980–2014) conducted at municipality level provided age-stratified Chagas disease prevalence data. The yearly FoI was estimated at the serosurvey level using a time-varying catalytic model. Environmental, demographic and entomological predictors were used to fit and predict the FoI at municipality level from 1980 to 2010 across Colombia.

A stratified bootstrap method was used to fit the models without temporal autocorrelation at the serosurvey level. The predictive ability of each model was evaluated to select the best-fit models within urban, rural and (Amerindian) indigenous settings. Model averaging, with the 10 best-fit models identified, was used to generate predictions.

Our analysis shows a risk of overconfidence in model predictions when median estimates of FoI alone are used to fit and evaluate models, failing to account for uncertainty in FoI estimates. Our proposed methodology fully propagates uncertainty in the estimated FoI onto the generated predictions, providing realistic assessments of both central tendency and current uncertainty surrounding exposure to Chagas disease.

High Temperature Cycles Result in Maternal Transmission and Dengue Infection Differences Between Wolbachia Strains in Aedes aegypti

Environmental factors play a crucial role in the population dynamics of arthropod endosymbionts, and therefore in the deployment of Wolbachia symbionts for the control of dengue arboviruses. The potential of Wolbachia to invade, persist, and block virus transmission depends in part on its intracellular density. Several recent studies have highlighted the importance of larval rearing temperature in modulating Wolbachia densities in adults, suggesting that elevated temperatures can severely impact some strains, while having little effect on others. The effect of a replicated tropical heat cycle on Wolbachia density and levels of virus blocking was assessed using Aedes aegypti lines carrying strains wMel and wAlbB, two Wolbachia strains currently used for dengue control. Impacts on intracellular density, maternal transmission fidelity, and dengue inhibition capacity were observed for wMel. In contrast, wAlbB-carrying Ae. aegypti maintained a relatively constant intracellular density at high temperatures and conserved its capacity to inhibit dengue. Following larval heat treatment, wMel showed a degree of density recovery in aging adults, although this was compromised by elevated air temperatures. IMPORTANCE In the past decades, dengue incidence has dramatically increased all over the world. An emerging dengue control strategy utilizes Aedes aegypti mosquitoes artificially transinfected with the bacterial symbiont Wolbachia, with the ultimate aim of replacing wild mosquito populations. However, the rearing temperature of mosquito larvae is known to impact on some Wolbachia strains. In this study, we compared the effects of a temperature cycle mimicking natural breeding sites in tropical climates on two Wolbachia strains, currently used for open field trials. When choosing the Wolbachia strain to be used in a dengue control program it is important to consider the effects of environmental temperatures on invasiveness and virus inhibition. These results underline the significance of understanding the impact of environmental factors on released mosquitoes, in order to ensure the most efficient strategy for dengue control.

Antigenic evolution of dengue viruses over 20 years

Infection with one of dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4) induces protective antibodies against homotypic infection. However, a notable feature of dengue viruses is the ability to use preexisting heterotypic antibodies to infect Fcγ receptor–bearing immune cells, leading to higher viral load and immunopathological events that augment disease. We tracked the antigenic dynamics of each DENV serotype by using 1944 sequenced isolates from Bangkok, Thailand, between 1994 and 2014 (348 strains), in comparison with regional and global DENV antigenic diversity (64 strains). Over the course of 20 years, the Thailand DENV serotypes gradually evolved away from one another. However, for brief periods, the serotypes increased in similarity, with corresponding changes in epidemic magnitude. Antigenic evolution within a genotype involved a trade-off between two types of antigenic change (within-serotype and between-serotype), whereas genotype replacement resulted in antigenic change away from all serotypes. These findings provide insights into theorized dynamics in antigenic evolution.

Leaky Gut Syndrome Is Associated with Endotoxemia and Serum (1→3)-β-D-Glucan in Severe Dengue Infection

The hallmark of severe dengue infection is the increased vascular permeability and hemodynamic alteration that might be associated with an intestinal permeability defect. However, the mechanisms underlying the gastrointestinal-related symptoms of dengue are not well characterized. A prospective observational study was conducted on patients with dengue who were categorized according to: (i) febrile versus critical phase and (ii) hospitalized patients with versus without the warning signs to evaluate the gut barrier using lactulose-to-mannitol excretion ratio (LEMR). Serum endotoxins, (1→3)-β-D-glucan (BG), and inflammatory parameters were measured. A total of 48 and 38 patients were enrolled in febrile illness and critical phase, respectively, while 22 and 64 patients presented with or without the warning signs, respectively. At enrollment, a positive LEMR test was found in 20 patients (91%) with warning signs, regardless of phase of infection. Likewise, serum endotoxins and BG, the indirect biomarkers for leaky gut, prominently increased in patients who developed severe dengue when compared with the non-severe dengue (endotoxins, 399.1 versus 143.4 pg/mL (p < 0.0001); BG, 123 versus 73.8 pg/mL (p = 0.016)). Modest impaired intestinal permeability occurred in dengue patients, particularly those with warning signs, and were associated with endotoxemia and elevated BG. Thus, leaky gut syndrome might be associated with severity of dengue infection.

Tracing and tracking the emergence, epidemiology and dispersal of dengue virus to Africa during the 20th century

The four mosquito-borne dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–DENV4) cause a high burden of disease throughout the tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Nevertheless, their precise epidemiological history in Africa, including when and where they originated and were distributed during the 20th century, remains unclear stressing the need for One Health focused research. Accordingly, we conducted a time-scaled molecular epidemiological reconstruction using publicly available and newly sequenced dengue virus genomes of African origin representing all four serotypes to deduce the most likely temporal and spatial transmission routes of each DENV serotype from their ancestral regions to, within and from Africa.

Our analyses suggest that during the 20th century, serotypes DENV1–DENV3 were introduced to Africa from South East Asia on multiple occasions. The earliest evidence recorded indicates introduction of DENV2 during the early-1940s and of DENV1 during the mid-1940s to Western Africa from South East Asia. The analysis also implies an early introduction of DENV4 during the mid-1940s to Western Africa, alongside DENV1, probably originating in South East Asia. Establishment of DENV3 in Africa appears to have occurred later in the 1960s, apparently originating from South East Asia. However, with the re-establishment of DENV in the Americas, following the cessation of the PAHO mosquito control programme during the mid-20th century, evidence of introductions of DENV1 and DENV2 from the Americas to Western Africa was also observed. The data also identify intra-regional circulation of DENV, but also inter-regional dispersal of all four serotypes within Africa, which has led to a high degree of geographical overlap among serotypes. It is also noteworthy that DENV from both Eastern and Western Africa, have been introduced into Central Africa but there is no support for the converse relationship. For serotypes DENV1–DENV3, we observed probable exports from within established African DENV clusters (≥2 sequences) primarily to Eastern and Southern Asia.

Collectively, our findings support the view that all DENV serotypes, apart from DENV4, have been introduced on multiple occasions to Africa, primarily originating from South East Asia, and subsequently to neighbouring regions within Africa.

Dengue Virus Serotype 1 Conformational Dynamics Confers Virus Strain-Dependent Patterns of Neutralization by Polyclonal Sera

Dengue virus cocirculates globally as four serotypes (DENV1 to -4) that vary up to 40% at the amino acid level. Viral strains within a serotype further cluster into multiple genotypes. Eliciting a protective tetravalent neutralizing antibody response is a major goal of vaccine design, and efforts to characterize epitopes targeted by polyclonal mixtures of antibodies are ongoing. Previously, we identified two E protein residues (126 and 157) that defined the serotype-specific antibody response to DENV1 genotype 4 strain West Pac-74. DENV1 and DENV2 human vaccine sera neutralized DENV1 viruses incorporating these substitutions equivalently. In this study, we explored the contribution of these residues to the neutralization of DENV1 strains representing distinct genotypes. While neutralization of the genotype 1 strain TVP2130 was similarly impacted by mutation at E residues 126 and 157, mutation of these residues in the genotype 2 strain 16007 did not markedly change neutralization sensitivity, indicating the existence of additional DENV1 type-specific antibody targets. The accessibility of antibody epitopes can be strongly influenced by the conformational dynamics of virions and modified allosterically by amino acid variation. We found that changes at E domain II residue 204, shown previously to impact access to a poorly accessible E domain III epitope, impacted sensitivity of DENV1 16007 to neutralization by vaccine immune sera. Our data identify a role for minor sequence variation in changes to the antigenic structure that impacts antibody recognition by polyclonal immune sera. Understanding how the many structures sampled by flaviviruses influence antibody recognition will inform the design and evaluation of DENV immunogens. IMPORTANCE Dengue virus (DENV) is an important human pathogen that cocirculates globally as four serotypes. Because sequential infection by different DENV serotypes is associated with more severe disease, eliciting a protective neutralizing antibody response against all four serotypes is a major goal of vaccine efforts. Here, we report that neutralization of DENV serotype 1 by polyclonal antibody is impacted by minor sequence variation among virus strains. Our data suggest that mechanisms that control neutralization sensitivity extend beyond variation within antibody epitopes but also include the influence of single amino acids on the ensemble of structural states sampled by structurally dynamic virions. A more detailed understanding of the antibody targets of DENV-specific polyclonal sera and factors that govern their access to antibody has important implications for flavivirus antigen design and evaluation.

Humanized Mice for the Study of Dengue Disease Pathogenesis: Biological Assays

Dengue is one of the most prevalent infectious diseases around the world, present in all continents and mainly affecting developing countries. With few tools to fight and study this disease, it is imperative to have reliable animal models that not only recapitulate human disease but also contain human components to understand the pathogenic mechanism and immune responses, allowing the development of new treatments and vaccines against dengue. Humanized mice are a significant advance in the development of in vivo models to understanding the relation of the human immune system and target organs such as the liver during the infection by dengue virus, allowing basic and preclinical research. In this chapter, we describe the use of humanized NSG mice (huNSG) for the study of dengue disease. The first model describes reconstitution of the human immune system by transplanting human CD34⁺ stem cells in newborn or adult NSG mice. The second model combines the reconstitution with CD34⁺ stem cells with the transplant of human primary hepatocytes. This dual reconstituted animal will have two of the major players involved in the development of dengue infection. However, there are still more biological components missing in this model for dengue, but researchers continue working to improve the huNSG model to reconstitute other human components.

How Antibodies Recognize Pathogenic Viruses: Structural Correlates of Antibody Neutralization of HIV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Zika

The H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010, MERS epidemic of 2012, Ebola epidemics of 2013-2016 and 2018-2020, Zika epidemic of 2015-2016, and COVID-19 pandemic of 2019-2021, are recent examples in the long history of epidemics that demonstrate the enormous global impact of viral infection. The rapid development of safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics has proven vital to reducing morbidity and mortality from newly emerging viruses. Structural biology methods can be used to determine how antibodies elicited during infection or vaccination target viral proteins and identify viral epitopes that correlate with potent neutralization. Here we review how structural and molecular biology approaches have contributed to our understanding of antibody recognition of pathogenic viruses, specifically HIV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Zika. Determining structural correlates of neutralization of viruses has guided the design of vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, and small molecule inhibitors in response to the global threat of viral epidemics.

Economic impact of dengue in Singapore from 2010 to 2020 and the cost-effectiveness of Wolbachia interventions

The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is a promising disease intervention strategy that aims to control dengue and other arboviral infections. While early field trials and modelling studies suggest promising epidemiological and entomological outcomes, the overall cost effectiveness of the technology is not well studied in a resource rich setting nor under the suppression approach that aims to suppress the wild-type mosquito population through the release of Wolbachia-infected males. We used economical and epidemiological data from 2010 to 2020 to first ascertain the economic and health costs of dengue in Singapore, a high income nation where dengue is hyper-endemic. The hypothetical cost effectiveness of a national Wolbachia suppression program was then evaluated historically from 2010 to 2020. We estimated that the average economic impact of dengue in Singapore from 2010 to 2020 in constant 2010US$ ranged from $1.014 to $2.265 Billion. Using empirically derived disability weights, we estimated a disease burden of 7,645-21,262 DALYs from 2010-2020. Under an assumed steady-state running cost of a national Wolbachia suppression program in Singapore, we conservatively estimate that Wolbachia would cost an estimated $50,453-$100,907 per DALYs averted and would lead to an estimated $329.40 Million saved in economic costs over 2010 to 2020 under 40% intervention efficacy. Wolbachia releases in Singapore are expected to be highly cost-effective and its rollout must be prioritised to reduce the onward spread of dengue.

Anders K, Nguyen L, Brown-Kenyon J, Caird A, McLean BJ, Iturbe-Ormaetxe I, Ritchie SA, O'Neill SL, Ryan PA. Environmental factors influence the local establishment of Wolbachia in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in two small communities in central Vietnam

Background: The wMel strain of Wolbachia has been successfully introduced into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and subsequently shown to reduce transmission of dengue and other pathogens, under both laboratory and field conditions. Here we describe the entomological outcomes of wMel Wolbachia mosquito releases in two small communities in Nha Trang City in central Vietnam. Methods: The wMel strain of Wolbachia was backcrossed into local Aedes aegypti genotype and mosquito releases were undertaken by community members or by staff. Field monitoring was undertaken to track Wolbachia establishment in local Ae. aegypti mosquito populations. Ecological studies were undertaken to assess relationships between environmental factors and the spatial and temporal variability in Wolbachia infection prevalence in mosquitoes. Results: Releases of wMel Wolbachia Ae. aegypti mosquitoes in two small communities in Nha Trang City resulted in the initial establishment of Wolbachia in the local Ae. aegypti mosquito populations, followed by seasonal fluctuations in Wolbachia prevalence. There was significant small-scale spatial heterogeneity in Wolbachia infection prevalence in the Tri Nguyen Village site, resulting in the loss of wMel Wolbachia infection in mosquitoes in north and center areas, despite Wolbachia prevalence remaining high in mosquitoes in the south area. In the second site, Vinh Luong Ward, Wolbachia has persisted at a high level in mosquitoes throughout this site despite similar seasonal fluctuations in wMel Wolbachia prevalence. Conclusion: Seasonal variation in Wolbachia infection prevalence in mosquitoes was associated with elevated temperature conditions, and was possibly due to imperfect maternal transmission of Wolbachia. Heterogeneity in Wolbachia infection prevalence was found throughout one site, and indicates additional factors may influence Wolbachia establishment.

Hyperendemicity associated with increased dengue burden

Over 105 million dengue infections are estimated to occur annually. Understanding the disease dynamics of dengue is often difficult due to multiple strains circulating within a population. Interactions between dengue serotype dynamics may result in complex cross-immunity dynamics at the population level and create difficulties in terms of formulating intervention strategies for the disease. In this study, a nationally representative 16-year time series with over 43 000 serotyped dengue infections was used to infer the long-run effects of between and within strain interactions and their impacts on past outbreaks. We used a novel identification strategy incorporating sign-identified Bayesian vector autoregressions, using structural impulse responses, historical decompositions and counterfactual analysis to conduct inference on dengue dynamics post-estimation. We found that on the population level: (i) across-serotype interactions on the population level were highly persistent, with a one time increase in any other serotype associated with long run decreases in the serotype of interest (range: 0.5–2.5 years) and (ii) over 38.7% of dengue cases of any serotype were associated with across-serotype interactions. The findings in this paper will substantially impact public health policy interventions with respect to dengue.

Geospatial Analysis and Mapping Strategies for Fine-Grained and Detailed COVID-19 Data with GIS

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic is showing dramatic impact across the world. Public health authorities attempt to fight against the virus while maintaining economic activity. In the face of the uncertainty derived from the virus, all the countries have adopted non-pharmaceutical interventions for limiting the mobility and maintaining social distancing. In order to support these interventions, some health authorities and governments have opted for sharing very fine-grained data related with the impact of the virus in their territories. Geographical science is playing a major role in terms of understanding how the virus spreads across regions. Location of cases allows identifying the spatial patterns traced by the virus. Understanding these patterns makes controlling the virus spread feasible, minimizes its impact in vulnerable regions, anticipates potential outbreaks, or elaborates predictive risk maps. The application of geospatial analysis to fine-grained data must be urgently adopted for optimal decision making in real and near-real time. However, some aspects related to process and map sensitive health data in emergency cases have not yet been sufficiently explored. Among them include concerns about how these datasets with sensitive information must be shown depending on aspects related to data aggregation, scaling, privacy issues, or the need to know in advance the particularities of the study area. In this paper, we introduce our experience in mapping fine-grained data related to the incidence of the COVID-19 during the first wave in the region of Galicia (NW Spain), and after that we discuss the mentioned aspects.

Characterization of the Type-Specific and Cross-Reactive B-Cell Responses Elicited by a Live-Attenuated Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine

BACKGROUND

Dengue is caused by 4 antigenically distinct serotypes of dengue virus (DENV1-4). Takeda's live attenuated tetravalent dengue vaccine (TAK-003) candidate is composed of an attenuated DENV2 and chimeric viruses containing prM/E of DENV1, 3 and 4 on the DENV2 backbone. The multicolor FluoroSpot (MCF) assay enables quantitation of serotype-specific and cross-reactive individual memory B cells (MBCs) secreting DENV-specific antibodies in a polyclonal mixture.

METHODS

Using the MCF assay, we determined the type-specific and cross-reactive MBC response in peripheral blood mononuclear cells collected pre- and postvaccination from 7 macaques and 15 randomly selected individuals who received TAK-003 (8 DENV seronegative and 7 DENV seropositive) in a phase 2 clinical trial in Singapore (DEN-205 study).

RESULTS

Preexisting DENV-specific MBC responses were detected only in seropositive vaccine recipients at day 0. Following vaccination, both type-specific and cross-reactive MBCs to all 4 DENV serotypes were observed in all macaques and clinical trial participants. The proportion of type-specific MBCs was higher than cross-reactive MBCs and remained stable between day 30 and 360 post vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

These results demonstrate that, unlike primary or secondary natural DENV infection, tetravalent vaccination elicits tetravalent type-specific MBCs, and thus all 4 components of TAK-003 contribute to the DENV-specific MBC response following vaccination.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02425098.

The Global Trends and Regional Differences in Incidence of Dengue Infection from 1990 to 2019: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

INTRODUCTION

Dengue, as a neglected tropical disease, brings a heavy socioeconomic burden. To provide tailored global prevention strategies, we analyzed the global trends and regional differences in incidence of dengue infection from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We obtained data on annual dengue episodes and incidence rates, which reflected the epidemic status of dengue infection from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The changes in dengue episodes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of dengue infection.

RESULTS

Globally, dengue ASR increased by 1.70% (95% CI 1.62%-1.78%) per year from 1990 to 2011; subsequently, it decreased by 0.41% (95% CI 0.20%-0.62%) per year from 2011 to 2019. However, the global number of dengue episodes increased steadily by 85.47% from 30.67 million in 1990 to 56.88 million in 2019. Against the global trend of decreasing ASR from 2011 to 2019, an increasing trend was reported in Oceania (EAPC 11.01, 95% CI 8.79-13.27), East Asia (EAPC 4.84, 95% CI 2.70-7.03) and Southeast Asia (EAPC 0.38, 95% CI 0.13-0.62). For socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, ASR continued to have an increasing trend in the middle (EAPC 0.26, 95% CI 0.07-0.45) and high-middle (EAPC 1.70, 95% CI 0.98-2.42) SDI regions from 2011 to 2019. In contrast to the global peak age of dengue incidence rate (10 to 25 years), the dengue incidence rate of older people (> 65 years) was higher than in other age groups in low and low-middle SDI regions. Additionally, the proportions of dengue episodes in the > 70-year-old age group increased in 2019 (using the baseline in 1990 or 2011) in most GBD regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Global dengue episodes have increased tremendously in 3 decades. Although global dengue ASR decreased in the last decade, it is still increasing in hyperendemic regions including Oceania, East Asia and Southeast Asia, and also in the middle and high-middle SDI regions. More attention should be paid to the elderly because of the higher dengue incidence rate among them in low and low-middle SDI regions and the increased proportions of dengue episodes among the elderly in most GBD regions. Therefore, more efforts should be undertaken to develop targeted prevention strategies for crucial regions and older populations.

Emerging epidemics: is the Zanzibar healthcare system ready to detect and respond to mosquito-borne viral diseases?

Background

Effective control of emerging mosquito-borne viral diseases such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika requires, amongst other things, a functional healthcare system, ready and capable of timely detection and prompt response to incipient epidemics. We assessed the readiness of Zanzibar health facilities and districts for early detection and management of mosquito-borne viral disease outbreaks.

Methods

A cross-sectional study involving all 10 District Health Management Teams and 45 randomly selected public and private health facilities in Zanzibar was conducted using a mixed-methods approach including observations, document review, and structured interviews with health facility in-charges and District Health Management Team members.

Results

The readiness of the Zanzibar healthcare system for timely detection, management, and control of dengue and other mosquito-borne viral disease outbreaks was critically low. The majority of health facilities and districts lacked the necessary requirements including standard guidelines, trained staff, real-time data capture, analysis and reporting systems, as well as laboratory diagnostic capacity. In addition, health education programmes for creating public awareness and Aedes mosquito surveillance and control activities were non-existent.

Conclusions

The Zanzibar healthcare system has limited readiness for management, and control of mosquito-borne viral diseases. In light of impending epidemics, the critical shortage of skilled human resource, lack of guidelines, lack of effective disease and vector surveillance and control measures as well as lack of laboratory capacity at all levels of health facilities require urgent attention across the Zanzibar archipelago.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Puerto Rico

An effective and widely used vaccine could reduce the burden of dengue virus (DENV) around the world. DENV is endemic in Puerto Rico, where the dengue vaccine CYD-TDV is currently under consideration as a control measure. CYD-TDV has demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials in vaccinees who had prior dengue virus infection. However, in vaccinees who had no prior dengue virus infection, the vaccine had a modestly elevated risk of hospitalization and severe disease. The WHO therefore recommended a strategy of pre-vaccination screening and vaccination of seropositive persons. To estimate the cost-effectiveness and benefits of this intervention (i.e., screening and vaccination of seropositive persons) in Puerto Rico, we simulated 10 years of the intervention in 9-year-olds using an agent-based model. Across the entire population, we found that 5.5% (4.6%-6.3%) of dengue hospitalizations could be averted. However, we also found that 0.057 (0.045-0.073) additional hospitalizations could occur for every 1,000 people in Puerto Rico due to DENV-naïve children who were vaccinated following a false-positive test results for prior exposure. The ratio of the averted hospitalizations among all vaccinees to additional hospitalizations among DENV-naïve vaccinees was estimated to be 19 (13-24). At a base case cost of vaccination of 382 USD, we found an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 122,000 USD per QALY gained. Our estimates can provide information for considerations to introduce the CYD-TDV vaccine in Puerto Rico.

Adapting Rapid Diagnostic Tests to Detect Historical Dengue Virus Infections

The only licensed dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia®, increases risk of severe dengue when given to individuals without prior dengue virus (DENV) infection but is protective against future disease in those with prior DENV immunity. The World Health Organization has recommended using rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) to determine history of prior DENV infection and suitability for vaccination. Dengue experts recommend that these assays be highly specific (≥98%) to avoid erroneously vaccinating individuals without prior DENV infection, as well as be sensitive enough (≥95%) to detect individuals with a single prior DENV infection. We evaluated one existing and two newly developed anti-flavivirus RDTs using samples collected >6 months post-infection from individuals in non-endemic and DENV and ZIKV endemic areas. We first evaluated the IgG component of the SD BIOLINE Dengue IgG/IgM RDT, which was developed to assist in confirming acute/recent DENV infections (n=93 samples). When evaluated following the manufacturer's instructions, the SD BIOLINE Dengue RDT had 100% specificity for both non-endemic and endemic samples but low sensitivity for detecting DENV seropositivity (0% non-endemic, 41% endemic). Sensitivity increased (53% non-endemic, 98% endemic) when tests were allowed to run beyond manufacturer recommendations (0.5 up to 3 hours), but specificity decreased in endemic samples (36%). When tests were evaluated using a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still retaining sensitivity at earlier timepoints in non-endemic (44-88%) and endemic samples (31-55%). We next evaluated novel dengue and Zika RDTs developed by Excivion to detect prior DENV or ZIKV infections and reduce cross-flavivirus reactivity (n=207 samples). When evaluated visually, the Excivion Dengue RDT had sensitivity and specificity values of 79%, but when evaluated with a quantitative reader, optimal specificity could be achieved (≥98%) while still maintaining moderate sensitivity (48-75%). The Excivion Zika RDT had high specificity (>98%) and sensitivity (>93%) when evaluated quantitatively, suggesting it may be used alongside dengue RDTs to minimize misclassification due to cross-reactivity. Our findings demonstrate the potential of RDTs to be used for dengue pre-vaccination screening to reduce vaccine-induced priming for severe dengue and show how assay design adaptations as well quantitative evaluation can further improve RDTs for this purpose.

Efficacy profile of the CYD-TDV dengue vaccine revealed by Bayesian survival analysis of individual-level phase III data

Background:

Sanofi-Pasteur’s CYD-TDV is the only licensed dengue vaccine. Two phase three trials showed higher efficacy in seropositive than seronegative recipients. Hospital follow-up revealed increased hospitalisation in 2–5- year-old vaccinees, where serostatus and age effects were unresolved.

Methods:

We fit a survival model to individual-level data from both trials, including year 1 of hospital follow-up. We determine efficacy by age, serostatus, serotype and severity, and examine efficacy duration and vaccine action mechanism.

Results:

Our modelling indicates that vaccine-induced immunity is long-lived in seropositive recipients, and therefore that vaccinating seropositives gives higher protection than two natural infections. Long-term increased hospitalisation risk outweighs short-lived immunity in seronegatives. Independently of serostatus, transient immunity increases with age, and is highest against serotype 4. Benefit is higher in seropositives, and risk enhancement is greater in seronegatives, against hospitalised disease than against febrile disease.

Conclusions:

Our results support vaccinating seropositives only. Rapid diagnostic tests would enable viable ‘screen-then-vaccinate’ programs. Since CYD-TDV acts as a silent infection, long-term safety of other vaccine candidates must be closely monitored.

Funding:

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Royal Society.

Clinical trial number:

NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.

Effectiveness of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments in reducing the incidence of dengue and other Aedes-borne diseases in Niterói, Brazil: A quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND

The introduction of the bacterium Wolbachia (wMel strain) into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes reduces their capacity to transmit dengue and other arboviruses. Evidence of a reduction in dengue case incidence following field releases of wMel-infected Ae. aegypti has been reported previously from a cluster randomised controlled trial in Indonesia, and quasi-experimental studies in Indonesia and northern Australia.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Following pilot releases in 2015-2016 and a period of intensive community engagement, deployments of adult wMel-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were conducted in Niterói, Brazil during 2017-2019. Deployments were phased across four release zones, with a total area of 83 km2 and a residential population of approximately 373,000. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of wMel deployments in reducing dengue, chikungunya and Zika incidence. An untreated control zone was pre-defined, which was comparable to the intervention area in historical dengue trends. The wMel intervention effect was estimated by controlled interrupted time series analysis of monthly dengue, chikungunya and Zika case notifications to the public health surveillance system before, during and after releases, from release zones and the control zone. Three years after commencement of releases, wMel introgression into local Ae. aegypti populations was heterogeneous throughout Niterói, reaching a high prevalence (>80%) in the earliest release zone, and more moderate levels (prevalence 40-70%) elsewhere. Despite this spatial heterogeneity in entomological outcomes, the wMel intervention was associated with a 69% reduction in dengue incidence (95% confidence interval 54%, 79%), a 56% reduction in chikungunya incidence (95%CI 16%, 77%) and a 37% reduction in Zika incidence (95%CI 1%, 60%), in the aggregate release area compared with the pre-defined control area. This significant intervention effect on dengue was replicated across all four release zones, and in three of four zones for chikungunya, though not in individual release zones for Zika.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We demonstrate that wMel Wolbachia can be successfully introgressed into Ae. aegypti populations in a large and complex urban setting, and that a significant public health benefit from reduced incidence of Aedes-borne disease accrues even where the prevalence of wMel in local mosquito populations is moderate and spatially heterogeneous. These findings are consistent with the results of randomised and non-randomised field trials in Indonesia and northern Australia, and are supportive of the Wolbachia biocontrol method as a multivalent intervention against dengue, chikungunya and Zika.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes

Background

Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD).

Methods

We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included.

Results

On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults.

Conclusions

Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients.

Funding

This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Larvicidal Activities against Aedes aegypti of Supernatant and Pellet Fractions from Cultured Bacillus spp. Isolated from Amazonian Microenvironments

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the primary vector of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika causing major problems for public health, which requires new strategies for its control, like the use of entomopathogenic microorganisms. In this study, bacteria from various Amazonian environments were isolated and tested for their pathogenicity to A. aegypti larvae. Following thermal shock to select sporulated Bacillus spp., 77 bacterial strains were isolated. Molecular identification per 16S RNA sequences revealed that the assembled strains contained several species of the genus Bacillus and one species each of Brevibacillus, Klebsiella, Serratia, Achromobacter and Brevundimonas. Among the isolated Bacillus sp. strains, 19 showed larvicidal activity against A. aegypti. Two strains of Brevibacillus halotolerans also displayed larvicidal activity. For the first time, larvicidal activity against A. aegypti was identified for a strain of Brevibacillus halotolerans. Supernatant and pellet fractions of bacterial cultures were tested separately for larvicidal activities. Eight strains contained isolated fractions resulting in at least 50% mortality when tested at a concentration of 5 mg/mL. Further studies are needed to characterize the active larvicidal metabolites produced by these microorganisms and define their mechanisms of action.

Using Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue: Will the Virus Fight Back?

Recent field trials have demonstrated that dengue incidence can be substantially reduced by introgressing strains of the endosymbiotic bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquito populations. This strategy relies on Wolbachia reducing the susceptibility of Ae. aegypti to disseminated infection by positive-sense RNA viruses like dengue. However, RNA viruses are well known to adapt to antiviral pressures. Here, we review the viral infection stages where selection for Wolbachia-resistant virus variants could occur. We also consider the genetic constraints imposed on viruses that alternate between vertebrate and invertebrate hosts, and the likely selection pressures to which dengue virus might adapt in order to be effectively transmitted by Ae. aegypti that carry Wolbachia. While there are hurdles to dengue viruses developing resistance to Wolbachia, we suggest that long-term surveillance for resistant viruses should be an integral component of Wolbachia-introgression biocontrol programs.

Efficacy of Wolbachia-Infected Mosquito Deployments for the Control of Dengue

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti mosquitoes infected with the wMel strain of Wolbachia pipientis are less susceptible than wild-type A. aegypti to dengue virus infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cluster-randomized trial involving releases of wMel-infected A. aegypti mosquitoes for the control of dengue in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We randomly assigned 12 geographic clusters to receive deployments of wMel-infected A. aegypti (intervention clusters) and 12 clusters to receive no deployments (control clusters). All clusters practiced local mosquito-control measures as usual. A test-negative design was used to assess the efficacy of the intervention. Patients with acute undifferentiated fever who presented to local primary care clinics and were 3 to 45 years of age were recruited. Laboratory testing was used to identify participants who had virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) and those who were test-negative controls. The primary end point was symptomatic VCD of any severity caused by any dengue virus serotype.

RESULTS

After successful introgression of wMel into the intervention clusters, 8144 participants were enrolled; 3721 lived in intervention clusters, and 4423 lived in control clusters. In the intention-to-treat analysis, VCD occurred in 67 of 2905 participants (2.3%) in the intervention clusters and in 318 of 3401 (9.4%) in the control clusters (aggregate odds ratio for VCD, 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.35; P = 0.004). The protective efficacy of the intervention was 77.1% (95% CI, 65.3 to 84.9) and was similar against the four dengue virus serotypes. The incidence of hospitalization for VCD was lower among participants who lived in intervention clusters (13 of 2905 participants [0.4%]) than among those who lived in control clusters (102 of 3401 [3.0%]) (protective efficacy, 86.2%; 95% CI, 66.2 to 94.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Introgression of wMel into A. aegypti populations was effective in reducing the incidence of symptomatic dengue and resulted in fewer hospitalizations for dengue among the participants. (Funded by the Tahija Foundation and others; AWED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03055585; Indonesia Registry number, INA-A7OB6TW.).

Worldwide dynamic biogeography of zoonotic and anthroponotic dengue

Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes. The rapid spread of dengue could lead to a global pandemic, and so the geographical extent of this spread needs to be assessed and predicted. There are also reasons to suggest that transmission of dengue from non-human primates in tropical forest cycles is being underestimated. We investigate the fine-scale geographic changes in transmission risk since the late 20^th century, and take into account for the first time the potential role that primate biogeography and sylvatic vectors play in increasing the disease transmission risk. We apply a biogeographic framework to the most recent global dataset of dengue cases. Temporally stratified models describing favorable areas for vector presence and for disease transmission are combined. Our models were validated for predictive capacity, and point to a significant broadening of vector presence in tropical and non-tropical areas globally. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in China, Papua New Guinea, Australia, USA, Colombia, Venezuela, Madagascar, as well as to cities in Europe and Japan. These models also suggest that dengue transmission is likely to spread to regions where there are presently no or very few reports of occurrence. According to our results, sylvatic dengue cycles account for a small percentage of the global extent of the human case record, but could be increasing in relevance in Asia, Africa, and South America. The spatial distribution of factors favoring transmission risk in different regions of the world allows for distinct management strategies to be prepared.

The rate of disease emergence is increasing globally, and many long-existing diseases are extending their distribution ranges. This is the case for dengue, a global pandemic whose mosquito vectors are currently occupying ever-increasing numbers of regions worldwide. We updated the most complete global dataset of dengue cases available, and addressed the fine-scale analysis of the geographic changes experienced in dengue-transmission risk since the late 20^th century. Our approach is the first to take into account the potential role of primates and sylvatic vectors in increasing the disease transmission risk in tropical forests. We built models that describe the favorable areas for vector presence and for disease occurrence, and combined them in order to obtain a novel model for predicting transmission risk. We show that dengue transmission is likely to spread to affected areas in Asia, Africa, North and South America, and Oceania, and to regions with presently no or very few cases, including cities in Europe and Japan. The global contribution of sylvatic dengue cycles is small but meaningful. Our methodological approach can differentiate the factors favoring risk in different world regions, thus allowing for management strategies to be prepared specifically for each of these regions.

Clinical evaluation of a developed paper-based Dengue NS1 rapid diagnostic test for febrile illness patients

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate a microfluidic paper-based analytical device (DEN-NS1-PAD) based on a rapid NS1 antigen test for diagnosing dengue at the point of care.

METHODS

219 serum samples from suspected dengue cases were tested with the developed DEN-NS1-PAD and commercial RDT by SD BIOLINE. The results were compared with the nested-PCR results.

RESULTS

The limit of detection of DEN-NS1-PAD was 0.78 ng mL^-1. It showed 88.89% sensitivity, 86.67% specificity, and a substantial agreement correlation (κ = 0.7522) compared with nested-PCR. In contrast, SD BIOLINE for NS1 (SD-NS1) detection showed 87.88% sensitivity, 90.00% specificity, and had a substantial agreement correlation with nested-PCR (κ = 0.7788).

CONCLUSIONS

DEN-NS1-PAD is a valuable tool for diagnosing DENV infections, especially for diagnosed patients with early acute phase samples with high viral load. DEN-NS1-PAD has better sensitivity than SD-NS1 but less specificity.

Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Zika and dengue incidence in the Americas declined in 2017–2018, but dengue resurged in 2019 in Brazil. This study uses epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to show that the decline of dengue may be explained by protective immunity from pre-exposure to ZIKV and/or DENV in prior years.

Dengue Virus Infections among Peace Corps Volunteers in Timor-Leste, 2018-2019

Dengue is an ongoing health risk for Peace Corps Volunteers (PCVs) working in the tropics. On May 2019, the Peace Corps Office of Health Services notified the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of a dengue outbreak among PCVs in Timor-Leste. The purpose of this investigation was to identify the clinical, demographic, and epidemiological characteristics of PCVs with dengue and recommend dengue preventive measures. To identify PCVs with dengue and describe disease severity, the medical records of PCVs reporting fever during September 2018–June 2019 were reviewed. To identify factors associated with dengue virus (DENV) infection, we administered a questionnaire on demographics, travel history, and mosquito avoidance behaviors and collected blood specimens to detect the anti-DENV IgM antibody to diagnose recent infection. Of 35 PCVs in-country, 11 (31%) tested positive for dengue (NS1, IgM, PCR), eight requiring hospitalization and medical evacuation. Among 27 (77%) PCVs who participated in the investigation, all reported having been recently bitten by mosquitoes and 56% reported being bitten most often at home; only 16 (59%) reported having screens on bedroom windows. Nearly all (93%) PCVs reported using a bed net every night; fewer (70%) reported using mosquito repellent at least once a day. No behaviors were significantly associated with DENV infection. Raising awareness of dengue risk among PCVs and continuing to encourage mosquito avoidance behavior to prevent dengue is critical. Access to and use of measures to avoid mosquito bites should be improved or implemented. Peace Corps medical officers should continue to receive an annual refresher training on dengue clinical management.