Risk Score for In-Hospital Ischemic Stroke Mortality Derived and Validated Within the Get With The Guidelines–Stroke Program

Off-Label Utilization of Syphontrak Catheter for Mechanical Thrombectomy in Acute Stroke

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether aspiration-specific catheters are necessary for successful mechanical thrombectomy, but if not, off-label use of more versatile catheters could offer significant cost savings over specialized aspiration catheters. The Syphontrak (Depuy Synthes, Raynham, MA, USA) support catheter is designed for introduction of devices into distal neurovasculature but is not specifically indicated for use in mechanical thrombectomy. We sought to compare our experience using this catheter to historical controls to show the non-inferiority of aspiration achieved.

METHODS

Data were collected retrospectively on patients who underwent mechanical thrombectomy using the Syphontrak catheter for aspiration at our institution. Patient demographics, procedure characteristics, and outcome information was recorded. Results were compared to five landmark studies on mechanical thrombectomy: MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, REVASCAT, SWIFT PRIME, and EXTEND-IA.

RESULTS

There were 63 patients who underwent mechanical thrombectomy for anterior circulation ischemic stroke. Despite significantly older patients and greater time from symptom onset to groin puncture, Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction grade 2B or 3 reperfusion was achieved in significantly more patients than in MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, and REVASCAT. Development of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage occurred in 6.4% of patients, which was not significantly different from MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, REVASCAT, and EXTEND-IA. Mortality was 19.1%, which was not significantly different from any of the trials.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the off-label use of distal intracranial support catheters for this mechanical thrombectomy, which may result in significant cost savings over aspiration-specific catheters, especially in low-volume centers.

Impact of Infection on the Risk of Recurrent Stroke Among Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Infection occurs commonly in patients with acute ischemic stroke. We aimed to investigate the association of infection with short- and long-term risk of recurrent stroke in patients with ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Data were derived from ischemic stroke patients in 2 stroke registries: the CSCA (Chinese Stroke Center Alliance) program recorded medical data during hospitalization, and the CNSR-III (Third China National Stroke Registry) recorded the medical data during hospitalization and finished 1-year follow-up. Associations of infection (pneumonia or urinary tract infection) during hospitalization with recurrent stroke in short (during hospitalization) and long term (since 30 days to 1 year after stroke onset) were analyzed. Short-term outcomes were analyzed with logistic models and long-term outcomes with Cox models.

RESULTS

In the CSCA (n=789 596), the incidence of infection during hospitalization reached 9.6%. Patients with infection had a higher risk of stroke recurrence during hospitalization compared with patients without infection (10.4% versus 5.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.70 [95% CI, 1.65-1.75]; P<0.0001). In the CNSR-III (n=13 549), the incidence of infection during hospitalization was 6.5%. Infection during hospitalization was significantly associated with short-term risk of recurrent stroke (7.4% versus 3.9%; adjusted odds ratio, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.05-1.86]; P=0.02) but not with long-term risk of recurrent stroke (7.2% versus 5.2%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 0.88-1.52]; P=0.30).

CONCLUSIONS

Infection was an independent risk factor for high risk of early stroke recurrence during hospitalization, but we have not found its sustained effect on long-term recurrent risk in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Frequency and Mortality Risk Factors of Acute Ischemic Stroke in Emergency Department in Burkina Faso

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of ischemic stroke deaths and their predictive factors in the Emergency Department at Yalgado Ouedraogo University Teaching Hospital (YOUTH). Methodology. This was a retrospective study with an analytical and descriptive focus over a period of three years from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2017.

RESULTS

During the study period, 302 acute ischemic stroke patients with a mean age of 62.2 ± 14.26 years were included. Atrial hypertension was the most common vascular risk factor in 52.5%. On admission, 34.8% of patients had loss of consciousness. The mean time to perform brain CT was 1.5 days. The average length of stay was 4 days. Electrocardiogram, echocardiography, and cervical Doppler were not performed during hospitalization in ED. The mortality rate was 39%, respectively, 37.6% in male and 41.6% in female. The mean age of patients who died in ED was 63.6 ± 13.52 years. Hypertension was the most common vascular risk factors in 54.2% of death. After logistic regression, the predictors of death were past history of heart disease, consciousness disorders, hyperthermia, hyperglycemia on admission, poststroke pneumonia, and urinary tract infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute ischemic stroke was frequent in Emergency Department with high mortality rate. The mortality risk factors were the same than those found in literature. This higher mortality can be avoided by early diagnosis and an adequate management.

Association Between Thrombolytic Door-to-Needle Time and 1-Year Mortality and Readmission in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

IMPORTANCE

Earlier administration of intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) in acute ischemic stroke is associated with reduced mortality by the time of hospital discharge and better functional outcomes at 3 months. However, it remains unclear whether shorter door-to-needle times translate into better long-term outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether shorter door-to-needle times with intravenous tPA for acute ischemic stroke are associated with improved long-term outcomes.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older who were treated for acute ischemic stroke with intravenous tPA within 4.5 hours from the time they were last known to be well at Get With The Guidelines-Stroke participating hospitals between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2016, with 1-year follow-up through December 31, 2017.

EXPOSURES

Door-to-needle times for intravenous tPA.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were 1-year all-cause mortality, all-cause readmission, and the composite of all-cause mortality or readmission.

RESULTS

Among the 61 426 patients treated with tPA within 4.5 hours, the median age was 80 years and 43.5% were male. The median door-to-needle time was 65 minutes (interquartile range, 49-88 minutes). The 48 666 patients (79.2%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 45 minutes, compared with those treated within 45 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.0% vs 30.8%, respectively; adjusted HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.18]), higher all-cause readmission (40.8% vs 38.4%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.12]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.0% vs 52.1%; adjusted HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.06-1.12]). The 34 367 patients (55.9%) who were treated with tPA and had door-to-needle times of longer than 60 minutes, compared with those treated within 60 minutes, had significantly higher all-cause mortality (35.8% vs 32.1%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.11 [95% CI, 1.07-1.14]), higher all-cause readmission (41.3% vs 39.1%; adjusted HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.04-1.10]), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (56.8% vs 53.1%; adjusted HR, 1.08 [95% CI, 1.05-1.10]). Every 15-minute increase in door-to-needle times was significantly associated with higher all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.02-1.05]) within 90 minutes after hospital arrival, but not after 90 minutes (adjusted HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 0.99-1.03]), higher all-cause readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and higher all-cause mortality or readmission (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among patients aged 65 years or older with acute ischemic stroke who were treated with tissue plasminogen activator, shorter door-to-needle times were associated with lower all-cause mortality and lower all-cause readmission at 1 year. These findings support efforts to shorten time to thrombolytic therapy.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Tool for Direct Enteral Tube Insertion After Acute Stroke

Background and Purpose- We aimed to create a novel prognostic risk score to estimate outcomes after direct enteral tube placement in acute stroke. Methods- We used the Ontario Stroke Registry and linked databases to obtain clinical information on all patients with direct enteral tube insertion after ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage from July 1, 2003 to June 30, 2010 (derivation cohort) and July 1, 2010 to March 31, 2013 (validation cohort). We used multivariable regression to assign scores to predictor variables for 3 outcomes after tube placement: favorable outcome (discharge modified Rankin Scale score 0-3 and alive at 90 days), poor outcome (discharge modified Rankin Scale score 5 or death at 90 days), and 30-day mortality. Results- Variables associated with a favorable outcome were younger age, preadmission independence, ischemic stroke rather than intracerebral hemorrhage, lower stroke severity, and a shorter time between stroke and tube placement. Variables associated with a poor outcome were older age, preadmission dependence, atrial fibrillation, greater stroke severity, and tracheostomy. Age, preadmission dependence, atrial fibrillation, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and shorter time to tube placement were associated with increased 30-day mortality. Using these variables, we created an online calculator to facilitate estimation of individual patient risk of favorable and poor outcomes. C-statistic in the validation cohort was 0.82 for favorable outcome, 0.65 for poor outcome, and 0.62 for 30-day mortality, and calibration was adequate. Conclusions- We developed risk scores to estimate outcomes after direct enteral tube insertion for acute dysphagic stroke. This information may be useful in discussions with patients and families when there is prognostic uncertainty surrounding outcomes with direct enteral tube placement after stroke.

[Analysis of comorbidities in hospitalized patients for ischemic stroke and their effects on lethality]

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study consists of analyzing the comorbidities of acute ischemic stroke and those influencing its hospital lethality.

METHODS

We considered patients from Wallonia aged 25 years or more and admitted to a Belgian hospital for an acute ischemic stroke in 2013 and 2014. The analyzed medico-administrative data are taken from the Minimum Hospital Summary. A factorial correspondence analysis (FCA) was used to demonstrate the comorbidities profiles. A logistic regression was used to analyse the comorbidities influencing hospital lethality by ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

The stroke risk factors vary according to the age. Cardiac problems are more common in older people aged 85 years or more. High blood pressure, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes are more present between 65- and 84-year-olds. Overweight is more present between 55 and 74-year-olds. People who are addicted to alcohol or tobacco are often 65 years or younger. The logistic regression showed that age and heart problems are the risk factors that increase lethality. However there is a lethality diminution in the presence of high blood pressure, hypercholesterolemia, overweight and addiction to alcohol or tobacco.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that medico-administrative databases and factorial statistical methods are perfectly adapted to confirm the ischemic stroke risk factors. This type of study will allow to target with more precision the secondary and tertiary prevention actions of stroke.

[Prognostic factors for mortality due to acute arterial stroke in a North African population]

Introduction

cerebrovascular accident (stroke) constitutes a major public health problem due to the number of people affected and to its medical social and economic consequences. This study aims to identify poor vital prognostic factors for survival in patients with acute arterial stroke.

Methods

we conducted a prospective study of patients with symptoms suggestive of stroke at the two University Hospitals of Sfax, Tunisia over a period of 4 months. Patients were followed-up for a period of 1 month.

Results

we collected data from 200 patients. After one month of follow-up, mortality was 19.9%. Poor prognostic factors were: male sex, consumption of tobacco, a history of stroke, low Glasgow score, high NIHSS, headaches, acute symptomatic epileptic seizures, Babinski's sign, mydriasis, aphasia, combined deviation of the head and the eyes, high PAS, PAD and PAM, hyperthermia, hyperglycaemia, leukocytosis, high concentration of CRP, creatinine, urea and troponin T, haemorrhagic stroke, perilesional oedema, a mass effect, commitment, total middle cerebral artery topography of ischemia, early signs of ischemia, meningeal hemorrhage, ventricular flood, hydrocephalus, the recourse to respiratory support, to anti-edematous treatment and to antihypertensive therapy, hemorrhagic transformation, vascular epilepsy, infectious, metabolic complications, complications of bed sores.

Conclusion

the identification of the predictive factors for survival allows for optimisation of therapeutic procedures and better implementation of patient' management. A comparative study will be considered to measure the impact of the corrective measures.

Deriving a Passive Surveillance Stroke Severity Indicator From Routinely Collected Administrative Data: The PaSSV Indicator

BACKGROUND

Adjusting for stroke severity is crucial for stroke outcomes research. However, this information is not available in administrative healthcare data. We aimed to derive an indicator of baseline stroke severity using these data.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We identified patients with stroke enrolled in a population-based registry in Ontario, Canada, and used the Canadian Neurological Scale (CNS), documented in the registry, as a measure of stroke severity. We derived an estimated CNS from a linear regression model in which we regressed the observed CNS on predictor variables: age, sex, arrival by ambulance, interhospital transfer, mechanical ventilation, and an emergency department triage score. The effect of stroke severity on the estimated hazard ratios for 30-day mortality was determined in 3 Cox-proportional hazards models with (1) no CNS, (2) observed CNS, and (3) estimated CNS, all adjusted for age, sex, Charlson index, and stroke type. We assessed model discrimination using C statistics. To assess for construct validity, we repeated these analyses in a subset of patients with documented National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and in a cohort of patients with stroke external to the registry. We derived the estimated stroke severity in 41 481 patients (48.7% female, median age of 75 years [interquartile range, 64- 83]). The magnitude of the association between stroke severity and mortality was similar for the observed and estimated CNS. The discriminative ability of the Cox-proportional hazards models to predict mortality was highest when the observed CNS was included (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.81-0.82]), moderate with estimated CNS (0.76 [0.75-0.76]), and lowest without CNS (0.69 [0.69-0.70]. Our findings were replicated with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and in the external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We derived an estimated measure of stroke severity using administrative data. This can be applied for risk adjustment in population-based stroke outcomes research and in assessments of health system performance.

Low density lipoprotein cholesterol values and outcome of stroke patients: influence of previous aspirin therapy

Background: The link between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and stroke risk remains controversial and few studies have evaluated the effect of LDL-C after stroke survival.Aims: We assessed the hypothesis proposing the effect of LDL-C on the outcome of stroke patients under the influence of previous Aspirin Therapy.Methods: Associations between LDL-C and outcomes. The effect of LDL cholesterol on stoke outcome was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier methodology, log-rank test, Cox proportional hazard models and Bootstrap Analysis.Results: In a cohort of 342 cases, we observed that among stroke patients with no record of previous aspirin therapy LDL-C levels within recommended range (nLDL-C) are associated to a poor overall survival on (p < 0.001, log-rank test) leading to a 4-fold increased mortality risk in both timeframes of 12 (HR 4.45, 95% CI 1.55-12.71; p = 0.004) or 24 months (HR 4.13, 95%CI 1.62-10.50;p = 0.003) after the first event of stroke. Moreover, modelling the risk of a second event after the first stroke in the timeframe of 24 months demonstrated a predictive capacity for nLDL-C plasmatic levels (HR 3.94, 95%CI 1.55-10.05; p = 0.004) confirmed by Bootstrap analysis (p = 0.003; 1000 replications). In a further step, the inclusion of LDL-C in simulating models equations to predict the risk of a second event in the timeframe of 12 months increased nearly 20% the predictive ability (c-index from 0.763 to 0.956).Conclusion: A worse outcome was seen in stroke patients with normal levels of LDLC, but this finding was restricted to patients not under previous aspirin therapy.

Stroke ICU Patient Mortality Day Prediction

This article presents a study on development of methods for analysis of data reflecting the process of treatment of stroke inpatients to predict clinical outcomes at the emergency care unit. The aim of this work is to develop models for the creation of validated risk scales for early intravenous stroke with minimum number of parameters with maximum prognostic accuracy and possibility to calculate the time of “expected intravenous stroke mortality”. The study of experience in the development and use of medical information systems allows us to state the insufficient ability of existing models for adequate data analysis, weak formalization and lack of system approach in the collection of diagnostic data, insufficient personalization of diagnostic data on the factors determining early intravenous stroke mortality.

In our study we divided patients into 3 subgroups according to the time of death - up to 1 day, 1 to 3 days, and 4 to 10 days. Early mortality in each subgroup was associated with a number of demographic, clinical, and instrumental-laboratory characteristics based on the interpretation of the results of calculating the significance of predictors of binary classification models by machine learning methods from the Scikit-Learn library. The target classes in training were “mortality rate of 1 day”, “mortality rate of 1–3 days”, “mortality rate from 4 days”. AUC ROC of trained models reached 91% for the method of random forest. The results of interpretation of decision trees and calculation of significance of predictors of built-in methods of random forest coincide that can prove to correctness of calculations.

The PLAN score can predict poor outcomes of intracerebral hemorrhage

Background

For patients hospitalized after acute ischemic stroke (AIS), the preadmission comorbidities, level of consciousness (LOC), age and neurologic deficit (PLAN) score can help to identify those who may have a poor outcome. Implementing the PLAN score in other types of stroke may also have predictive value. Our study aimed to evaluate the PLAN score's prognostic accuracy in predicting 1-year mortality and severe disability after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods

We analyzed data found in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) of 2,453 hospitalized patients in 132 urban Chinese hospitals, diagnosed with ICH from September 2007 to August 2008. The outcomes analysis included 30-day mortality, modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) of 5-6 at discharge, and 1-year mortality. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed, and we calculated consistency statistics (C statistic). We evaluated the PLAN score performance using area under the curve (AUC) calculations.

Results

We found that the 30-day mortality was 12.6%, the frequency of a mRS 5-6 at discharge was 20.6%, and 1-year mortality was 21.9%. The PLAN score had good predictive value in 30-day mortality (C statistic, 0.82), death or severe dependence at discharge (0.84), and 1-year mortality (0.82).

Conclusions

In patients hospitalized for ICH, the 30-day mortality, death or severe dependence at discharge and 1-year mortality can be predicted by the PLAN score. Similarly to patients hospitalized after AIS, the PLAN score can help to identify patients likely to have poor outcomes following hospitalization for ICH.

The Medicare Shared Savings Program and Outcomes for Ischemic Stroke Patients: a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Post-stroke care delivery may be affected by provider participation in Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) through systematic changes to discharge planning, care coordination, and transitional care.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of MSSP with patient outcomes in the year following hospitalization for ischemic stroke.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort SETTING: Get With The Guidelines (GWTG)-Stroke (2010-2014) PARTICIPANTS: Hospitalizations for mild to moderate incident ischemic stroke were linked with Medicare claims for fee-for-service beneficiaries ≥ 65 years (N = 251,605).

MAIN MEASURES

Outcomes included discharge to home, 30-day all-cause readmission, length of index hospital stay, days in the community (home-time) at 1 year, and 1-year recurrent stroke and mortality. A difference-in-differences design was used to compare outcomes before and after hospital MSSP implementation for patients (1) discharged from hospitals that chose to participate versus not participate in MSSP or (2) assigned to an MSSP ACO versus not or both. Unique estimates for 2013 and 2014 ACOs were generated.

KEY RESULTS

For hospitals joining MSSP in 2013 or 2014, the probability of discharge to home decreased by 2.57 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = - 4.43, - 0.71) percentage points (pp) and 1.84 pp (CI = - 3.31, - 0.37), respectively, among beneficiaries not assigned to an MSSP ACO. Among discharges from hospitals joining MSSP in 2013, beneficiary ACO alignment versus not was associated with increased home discharge, reduced length of stay, and increased home-time. For patients discharged from hospitals joining MSSP in 2014, ACO alignment was not associated with changes in utilization. No association between MSSP and recurrent stroke or mortality was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with mild to moderate ischemic stroke, meaningful reductions in acute care utilization were observed only for ACO-aligned beneficiaries who were also discharged from a hospital initiating MSSP in 2013. Only 1 year of data was available for the 2014 MSSP cohort, and these early results suggest further study is warranted.

REGISTRATION

None.

Hospital-based cohort study to determine the association between home-time and disability after stroke by age, sex, stroke type and study year in Canada

OBJECTIVE

Home-time is an emerging patient-centred stroke outcome metric, but it is not well described in the population. We aimed to determine the association between 90-day home-time and global disability after stroke. We hypothesised that longer home-time would be associated with less disability.

DESIGN

Hospital-based cohort study of patients with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage admitted to an acute care hospital between 1 April 2002 and 31 March 2013.

SETTING

All regional stroke centres and a simple random sample of patients from all other hospitals across the province of Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

We included 39 417 adult patients (84% ischaemic, 16% haemorrhage), 53% male, with a median age of 74 years. We excluded non-residents of Ontario, patients without a valid health insurance number, patients discharged against medical advice or those who failed to return from a pass, patients living in a long-term care centre at baseline and stroke events occurring in-hospital.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Association between 90-day home-time, defined as the number of days spent at home in the first 90 days after stroke, obtained using linked administrative data and modified Rankin Scale score at discharge.

RESULTS

Compared with people with no disability, those with minimal disability had less home-time (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 0.96, 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) and those with the most severe disability had the least home-time (aRR 0.05, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.05). We found no clinically relevant modification by stroke type, sex or study year. However, for a given level of disability, older patients experienced less home-time compared with younger patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results provide content validity for home-time to be used to monitor stroke outcomes in large populations or to study temporal trends. Older patients experience less home-time for a given level of disability, suggesting the need for stratification by age.

Shock Index Predicts Patient-Related Clinical Outcomes in Stroke

Background

The prognostic value of shock index (SI), heart rate divided by systolic blood pressure, in stroke for clinical outcomes other than mortality is not well understood.

Methods and Results

We examined the Get With The Guidelines–Stroke (GWTG‐Stroke) data to explore the usefulness of SI in predicting in‐hospital outcomes in 425 808 acute stroke cases (mean age: 71.0±14.5 years; 48.8% male; 89.7% ischemic stroke and 10.3% intracerebral hemorrhage) admitted between October 2012 and March 2015. Compared with patients with SI of 0.5 to 0.7, patients with SI >0.7 (13.6% of the sample) had worse outcomes, with adjusted odds ratios of 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92–2.08) for in‐hospital mortality, 1.46 (95% CI, 1.43–1.49) for longer length of hospital stay >4 days, 1.50 (95% CI, 1.47–1.54) for discharge destination other than home, 1.41 (95% CI, 1.38–1.45) for inability to ambulate independently at discharge, and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.47–1.57) for modified Rankin Scale score of 3 to 6 at discharge. Results were similar when analyses were confined to those with available National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) or within individual stroke subtypes or when SI was additionally included in the models with or without blood pressure components. Every 0.1 increase in SI >0.5 was associated with significantly worse outcomes in linear spline models. The addition of SI to existing GWTG‐Stroke mortality prediction models without NIHSS demonstrated modest improvement, but little to no improvement was noted in models with NIHSS.

Conclusions

SI calculated at the point of care may be a useful prognostic indicator to identify those with high risk of poor outcomes in acute stroke, especially in hospitals with limited experience with NIHSS assessment.

Impact of Missing Stroke Severity Data on the Accuracy of Hospital Ischemic Stroke Mortality Profiling

BACKGROUND

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have proposed 30-day ischemic stroke risk-standardized mortality rates that include adjustment for stroke severity using the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), which is often undocumented. We used simulations to quantify the effect of missing NIHSS data on the accuracy of hospital-level ischemic stroke risk-standardized mortality rate profiling for 100 hypothetical hospitals with different case volumes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We generated simulated data sets of patients with NIHSS scores and other predictors of 30-day mortality based on empirical analysis of data from 7654 patients with ischemic stroke in the Michigan Stroke Registry. We assigned and rank-ordered a true (known) 30-day mortality rate to each hospital in the simulated data sets of N=100 hospitals with either low (100 patients with stroke), medium (300), or high (500) case volumes. We then estimated and rank-ordered 30-day risk-standardized mortality rates for the N=100 hospitals in each simulated data set using hierarchical logistic regression models. In each data set, we systematically varied the rate of missing NIHSS data and whether missing NIHSS data was independent (missing completely at random) or dependent (missing not at random) on the NIHSS score. With no missing NIHSS data, the Spearman correlation between the true hospital performance rank order assigned during data set generation and the estimated 30-day risk-standardized mortality rate rank order was 0.72, 0.88, and 0.91 in low, medium, and high volume hospitals, respectively. However, this fell to as low as 0.50, 0.71, and 0.79 as missing NIHSS data reached 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

Missing NIHSS data had substantial detrimental effects on the accuracy of profiling of ischemic stroke mortality, especially in lower volume hospitals. Even with complete NIHSS documentation, significant limitations in ischemic stroke mortality profiling remain.

Central venous catheter use increases ischemic stroke risk: a nationwide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Central venous catheter (CVC) placement is a common procedure used for the treatment of critically ill patients. However, ischemic stroke is a complication after CVC placement.

AIM

This study investigated the association between CVC placement and ischemic stroke risk in an Asian population.

DESIGN

Population-based retrospective study.

METHODS

We enrolled 37 623 patients who ever-received CVC placement over 2000-10 and propensity score-matched individuals without CVC placement as the comparison cohort from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. We determined the cumulative incidence rates and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

We finally identified and enrolled 34 164 propensity score-matched pairs of individuals. Compared with the comparison group, CVC placement increased the average annual ischemic stroke incidence [19.5 vs. 11.6 per 10 000 person-years; crude HR=1.28, 95%, confidence interval (CI)=1.21-1.35; adjusted subhazard ratio (aSHR)=1.4, 95% CI = 1.33-1.47; P<0.001). In addition, compared with those aged >35 years, stroke risk was significantly higher in <35-year-old patients with CVC placement (aSHR=14.3, 95% CI=6.11-33.4; P<0.001). After <1-year follow-up, the ischemic stroke incidence rate in the CVC placement group was ∼3.25-fold higher than that in the comparison group (aHR=3.25, 95% CI=2.9-3.63; P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

CVC placement increases ischemic stroke risk, particularly in those aged ≤35 years; this trend warrants further investigation.

Clinical Effectiveness of Direct Oral Anticoagulants vs Warfarin in Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Ischemic Stroke: Findings From the Patient-Centered Research Into Outcomes Stroke Patients Prefer and Effectiveness Research (PROSPER) Study

IMPORTANCE

Current guidelines recommend direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) over warfarin for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are at high risk. Despite demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials, real-world data of DOACs vs warfarin for secondary prevention in patients with ischemic stroke are largely based on administrative claims or have not focused on patient-centered outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the clinical effectiveness of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, or apixaban) vs warfarin after ischemic stroke in patients with AF.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included patients who were 65 years or older, had AF, were anticoagulation naive, and were discharged from 1041 Get With The Guidelines-Stroke-associated hospitals for acute ischemic stroke between October 2011 and December 2014. Data were linked to Medicare claims for long-term outcomes (up to December 2015). Analyses were completed in July 2018.

EXPOSURES

DOACs vs warfarin prescription at discharge.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcomes were home time, a patient-centered measure defined as the total number of days free from death and institutional care after discharge, and major adverse cardiovascular events. A propensity score-overlap weighting method was used to account for differences in observed characteristics between groups.

RESULTS

Of 11 662 survivors of acute ischemic stroke (median [interquartile range] age, 80 [74-86] years), 4041 (34.7%) were discharged with DOACs and 7621 with warfarin. Except for National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (median [interquartile range], 4 [1-9] vs 5 [2-11]), baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Patients discharged with DOACs (vs warfarin) had more days at home (mean [SD], 287.2 [114.7] vs 263.0 [127.3] days; adjusted difference, 15.6 [99% CI, 9.0-22.1] days) during the first year postdischarge and were less likely to experience major adverse cardiovascular events (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.89 [99% CI, 0.83-0.96]). Also, in patients receiving DOACs, there were fewer deaths (aHR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.82-0.95]; P < .001), all-cause readmissions (aHR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88-0.97]; P = .003), cardiovascular readmissions (aHR, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.86-0.99]; P = .02), hemorrhagic strokes (aHR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.50-0.95]; P = .02), and hospitalizations with bleeding (aHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.81-0.97]; P = .009) but a higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (aHR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.01-1.30]; P = .03).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients with acute ischemic stroke and AF, DOAC use at discharge was associated with better long-term outcomes relative to warfarin.

Intravenous Tissue Plasminogen Activator in Stroke Mimics

BACKGROUND

The necessity for rapid evaluation and treatment of acute ischemic stroke with intravenous tPA (tissue-type plasminogen activator) may increase the risk of administrating tPA to patients presenting with noncerebrovascular conditions that closely resemble stroke (stroke mimics). However, there are limited data on thrombolysis safety in stroke mimics.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke Registry, we identified 72 582 patients with suspected ischemic stroke treated with tPA from 485 US hospitals between January 2010 and December 2017. We documented the use of tPA in stroke mimics, defined as patients who present with stroke-like symptoms, but after workup are determined not to have suffered from a stroke or transient ischemic attack, and compared characteristics and outcomes in stroke mimics versus those with ischemic stroke. Overall, 3.5% of tPA treatments were given to stroke mimics. Among them, 38.2% had a final nonstroke diagnoses of migraine, functional disorder, seizure, and electrolyte or metabolic imbalance. Compared with tPA-treated true ischemic strokes, tPA-treated mimics were younger (median 54 versus 71 years), had a less severe National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (median 6 versus 8), and a lower prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors, except for a higher prevalence of prior stroke/transient ischemic attack (31.3% versus 26.1%, all P<0.001). The rate of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage was lower in stroke mimics (0.4%) as compared with 3.5% in ischemic strokes (adjusted odds ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.17-0.50). In-hospital mortality rate was significantly lower in stroke mimics (0.8% versus 6.2%, adjusted odds ratio, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.20-0.49). Patients with stroke mimics were more likely to be discharged to home (83.8% versus 49.3%, adjusted odds ratio, 2.97; 95% CI, 2.59-3.42) and to ambulate independently at discharge (78.6% versus 50.6%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.61-2.14).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large cohort of patients treated with tPA, relatively few patients who received tPA for presumed stroke were ultimately not diagnosed with a stroke or transient ischemic attack. The complication rates associated with tPA in stroke mimics were low. Despite the potential risk of administering tPA to stroke mimics, opportunity remains for continued improvement in the rapid and accurate diagnosis and treatment of ischemic stroke.

Impact of Evidence-Based Stroke Care on Patient Outcomes: A Multilevel Analysis of an International Study

Background

The uptake of proven stroke treatments varies widely. We aimed to determine the association of evidence‐based processes of care for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and clinical outcome of patients who participated in the HEADPOST (Head Positioning in Acute Stroke Trial), a multicenter cluster crossover trial of lying flat versus sitting up, head positioning in acute stroke.

Methods and Results

Use of 8 AIS processes of care were considered: reperfusion therapy in eligible patients; acute stroke unit care; antihypertensive, antiplatelet, statin, and anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation; dysphagia assessment; and physiotherapist review. Hierarchical, mixed, logistic regression models were performed to determine associations with good outcome (modified Rankin Scale scores 0–2) at 90 days, adjusted for patient and hospital variables. Among 9485 patients with AIS, implementation of all processes of care in eligible patients, or “defect‐free” care, was associated with improved outcome (odds ratio, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18–1.65) and better survival (odds ratio, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.62–3.09). Defect‐free stroke care was also significantly associated with excellent outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 0–1) (odds ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04–1.43). No hospital characteristic was independently predictive of outcome. Only 1445 (15%) of eligible patients with AIS received all processes of care, with significant regional variations in overall and individual rates.

Conclusions

Use of evidence‐based care is associated with improved clinical outcome in AIS. Strategies are required to address regional variation in the use of proven AIS treatments.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique Identifier: NCT02162017.

Intravenous Tissue-Type Plasminogen Activator in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients With History of Stroke Plus Diabetes Mellitus

Background and Purpose- Acute ischemic stroke patients with history of prior ischemic stroke plus concomitant diabetes mellitus (DM) were excluded from the ECASS III trial (European Cooperative Acute Stroke Study) because of safety concerns. However, there are few data on use of intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage or outcomes in this population. Methods- Using data from the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke Registry between February 2009 and September 2017 (n=1619 hospitals), we examined characteristics and outcomes among patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with tissue-type plasminogen activator within the 3- to 4.5-hour window who had a history of stroke plus diabetes mellitus (HxS+DM) (n=2129) versus those without either history (n=16 690). Results- Compared with patients without either history, those with both prior stroke and DM treated with tissue-type plasminogen activator after an acute ischemic stroke had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in addition to history of stroke, DM, and more severe stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale: median, 8 [interquartile range, 5-15] versus 7 [4-13]). The unadjusted rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage and in-hospital mortality were 4.3% (HxS+DM) versus 3.8% (without either history; P=0.31) and 6.2% versus 5.5% ( P=0.20), respectively. These differences were not statistically significant after risk adjustment (symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage: adjusted odds ratio, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.51-1.21]; P=0.28; in-hospital mortality: odds ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.52-1.14]; P=0.19). Unadjusted rate of functional independence (modified Rankin Scale score, 0-2) at discharge was lower in those with HxS+DM (30.9% HxS+DM versus 44.8% without either history; P≤0.0001), and this difference persisted after adjusting for baseline clinical factors (adjusted odds ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.59-0.99]; P=0.04). Conclusions- Among patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator within the 3- to 4.5-hour window, HxS+DM was not associated with statistically significant increased symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage or mortality risk.

Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage is Associated with Mortality after Acute Ischemic Stroke

OBJECTIVE

Gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage is serious during the acute phase and is reported to be related to an increased risk of death during the acute phase of acute ischemic stroke in particular. Our study was designed to investigate the relationship between GI hemorrhage and the mortality of acute ischemic stroke, assessing the influence of cerebrovascular risk factors, brain herniation and oral anticoagulation on the onset of GI hemorrhage. The identified risk factors for the occurrence of GI hemorrhage help to elucidate their respective roles in the mortality of acute ischemic stroke.

METHODS

A total of 15993 consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke, including 216 cases and 15777 controls, were enrolled in the study from October 2010 to December 2018. Basic clinical and examination data were collected at the time of study enrollment. GI hemorrhage was diagnosed according to the presence of clinical features and endoscopy. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regressions were conducted to explore the associations between the GI hemorrhage occurrence and known risk factors. Kaplan-Meier was used to assess the influence of GI hemorrhage on the age of mortality of acute ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

GI hemorrhage cases among patients with acute ischemic stroke accounted for 1.35%. Male patients with ischemic stroke were more likely to have GI hemorrhage than their female counterparts (odds ratio (OR): 1.79; P = 0.000). Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) had a higher incidence of GI hemorrhage than their counterparts without AF (3.03% vs. 1.20%; P < 0.05). Use of oral anticoagulants was related to increased risk for GI hemorrhage (OR: 1.96; P = 0.00). After adjusting for age and sex, both AF and oral anticoagulant use maintained associations with increased risk for GI hemorrhage (2.59-times and 2.02-times risk respectively; P = 0.00). Patients with hyperlipidemia had a lower incidence of GI hemorrhage than their counterparts without hyperlipidemia (0.62% vs. 1.60%; P < 0.05). Hyperlipidemia was associated with a reduced risk of GI hemorrhage (OR: 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25-0.58; P = 0.00), even after adjusting for age and sex (OR: 0.41; P = 0.00). Patients with brain herniation had a 6.54-times increased risk for GI hemorrhage (P = 0.00). GI hemorrhage was associated with 10.98-fold risk for mortality of acute ischemic stroke (P = 0.00). There was an interaction between GI hemorrhage and brain herniation and increased 26.91-fold risk for the mortality after acute ischemic stroke (P = 0.00).

CONCLUSION

AF, oral anticoagulant use, brain herniation and male sex increase GI hemorrhage risk, while hyperlipidemia reduces risk. GI hemorrhage itself increases the risk for mortality of acute ischemic stroke. The interaction between GI hemorrhage and brain herniation increased the risk for the mortality after acute ischemic stroke.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bridging Anticoagulation Among Patients with Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Bridging anticoagulation is commonly prescribed to patients with atrial fibrillation during initiation and interruption of warfarin. Guidelines recommend bridging patients at high risk of stroke, while a recent randomized trial demonstrated overall harm in a population at comparatively low risk of ischemic stroke. Theory suggests that patients at high risk of stroke and low risk of hemorrhage may benefit from bridging, but data informing patient selection are scant.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the utility and cost-effectiveness of bridging anticoagulation among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation, stratified by thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risk DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis with lifelong time horizon, from the perspective of a third-party payer MAIN MEASURES: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per bridged patient; US dollars per QALY gained KEY RESULTS: Unselected patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation may be harmed by bridging anticoagulation. Hospital admission for bridging is almost never cost-effective, and generally harmful. Among patients carefully selected by both thromboembolic and hemorrhagic risks, outpatient bridging can be beneficial and cost-effective. Results were sensitive to how effectively heparin products reduce stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Outpatient bridging anticoagulation can be beneficial and cost-effective for a subset of patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation during interruption or initiation of warfarin. Admission for bridging should be avoided.

Low thalamostriate venous quantitative susceptibility measurements correlate with higher presenting NIH stroke scale score in emergent large vessel occlusion stroke

Objective

Hyperacute stroke affects various patient subgroups who may benefit from different management strategies. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM) is a recent MRI technique for measuring deoxyhemoglobin levels. The results of QSM thus have the potential to act as a quantitative biomarker for predicting the success of endovascular interventions.

Methods

Twenty-five patients with M1 occlusions were evaluated retrospectively. QSM measurements were obtained based on susceptibility-weighted imaging sequences from the most prominent veins in each of the four standard regions of interest: the cortical and thalamostriate veins ipsilateral and contralateral to the side of the stroke. The results were analyzed using Wilcoxon’s signed rank test and compared with presenting National Institutes of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score.

Results

Cortical veins ipsilateral to the stroke showed the greatest elevation in susceptibility compared with all other vein groups. Both ipsilateral and contralateral thalamostriate vein susceptibilities showed strong inverse correlation with presenting NIHSS score.

Conclusion

Thalamostriate vein susceptibility shows a strong inverse correlation with presenting NIHSS in adult patients with hyperacute stroke who are selected for endovascular intervention by advanced imaging.

Predicting Early Mortality of Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background and Purpose—

Several risk factors are known to increase mid- and long-term mortality of ischemic stroke patients. Information on predictors of early stroke mortality is scarce but often requested in clinical practice. We therefore aimed to develop a rapidly applicable tool for predicting early mortality at the stroke unit.

Methods—

We used data from the nationwide Austrian Stroke Unit Registry and multivariate regularized logistic regression analysis to identify demographic and clinical variables associated with early (≤7 days poststroke) mortality of patients admitted with ischemic stroke. These variables were then used to develop the Predicting Early Mortality of Ischemic Stroke score that was validated both by bootstrapping and temporal validation.

Results—

In total, 77 653 ischemic stroke patients were included in the analysis (median age: 74 years, 47% women). The mortality rate at the stroke unit was 2% and median stay of deceased patients was 3 days. Age, stroke severity measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, prestroke functional disability (modified Rankin Scale >0), preexisting heart disease, diabetes mellitus, posterior circulation stroke syndrome, and nonlacunar stroke cause were associated with mortality and served to build the Predicting Early Mortality of Ischemic Stroke score ranging from 0 to 12 points. The area under the curve of the score was 0.879 (95% CI, 0.871–0.886) in the derivation cohort and 0.884 (95% CI, 0.863–0.905) in the validation sample. Patients with a score ≥10 had a 35% (95% CI, 28%–43%) risk to die within the first days at the stroke unit.

Conclusions—

We developed a simple score to estimate early mortality of ischemic stroke patients treated at a stroke unit. This score could help clinicians in short-term prognostication for management decisions and counseling.

GWTG Risk Model for All Stroke Types Predicts In-Hospital and 3-Month Mortality in Chinese Patients with Acute Stroke

BACKGROUND

We aimed to externally validate the Get With the Guidelines (GWTG) risk model for all stroke types to predict in-hospital stroke mortality in Chinese patients and moreover to explore its prognostic value in predicting 3-month mortality after stroke.

METHODS

The prognostic model was applied to patients with acute stroke from China National Stroke Registry II (CNSR II) to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality. Model discrimination was estimated by calculating c-statistic and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Calibration was assessed by Pearson correlation coefficient and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

Date from 21,684 stroke patients with complete data for in-hospital mortality prediction and 20,348 stroke patients with complete data for 3-month mortality prediction in the CNSR II were abstracted. The in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 1.4% and 5.6%, respectively. The c-statistics in the CNSR II were .86 (95% CI, .84-.88) and .83 (95% CI, .81-.84) for in-hospital and 3-month mortality, respectively. Calibration plot presented high correlation between the observed and predicted mortality rates (Pearson correlation coefficient, .996 for in-hospital and .998 for 3-month mortality; both P < .001). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics for the prediction of in-hospital and 3-month mortality were 0.21 and less than .001, respectively. The model performed nearly as well in each stroke type as in the overall model including all types.

CONCLUSIONS

The GWTG risk model for all stroke types is a valid clinical tool to predict in-hospital and 3-month mortality in Chinese patients with acute stroke of any type.

Effect of Comorbidity Assessed by the Charlson Comorbidity Index on the Length of Stay, Costs and Mortality among Older Adults Hospitalised for Acute Stroke

The burden of comorbidity among stroke patients is high. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of comorbidity on the length of stay (LOS), costs, and mortality among older adults hospitalised for acute stroke. Among 776 older adults (mean age 80.1 ± 8.3 years; 46.7% female) hospitalised for acute stroke during July 2013 to December 2015 at a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia, we collected data on LOS, costs, and discharge outcomes. Comorbidity was assessed via the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), where a CCI score of 0⁻1 was considered low and a CCI ≥ 2 was high. Negative binomial regression and quantile regression were applied to examine the association between CCI and LOS and cost, respectively. Survival was evaluated with the Kaplan⁻Meier and Cox regression analyses. The median LOS was 1.1 days longer for patients with high CCI than for those with low CCI. In-hospital mortality rate was 18.2% (22.1% for high CCI versus 11.8% for low CCI, p < 0.0001). After controlling for confounders, high CCI was associated with longer LOS (incidence rate ratio [IRR]; 1.35, p < 0.0001) and increased likelihood of in-hospital death (hazard ratio [HR]; 1.91, p = 0.003). The adjusted median, 25th, and 75th percentile costs were AUD$2483 (26.1%), AUD$1446 (28.1%), and AUD$3140 (27.9%) higher for patients with high CCI than for those with low CCI. Among older adults hospitalised for acute stroke, higher global comorbidity (CCI ≥ 2) was associated adverse clinical outcomes. Measures to better manage comorbidities should be considered as part of wider strategies towards mitigating the social and economic impacts of stroke.

Utilization of Hospice Care in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke

Background:

A significant percentage of terminally ill patients are discharged to hospice care following a devastating stroke.

Objective:

We sought to determine the factors associated with hospital discharge to hospice care in a large cohort of patients with stroke.

Methods:

Using the institutional Get With The Guidelines-Stroke database, all consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) who were alive at discharge, from January 2009 until July 2015, were analyzed. Univariate and multivariable statistical analyses were performed to determine the factors associated with discharge to hospice care.

Results:

Of 2446 patients with AIS, 3.4% died and were excluded of remaining 2363 patients, and 4.2% were discharged to hospice care. Univariate analysis identified patients who were discharged to hospice care to be older, caucasian, Medicare or private insurance, have atrial fibrillation, heart failure and less often had diabetes mellitus or smoked. Altered mentation at presentation and urinary tract infection were more common in patients discharged to hospice. On multivariable analysis, patients transferred to hospice care were older (odds ratio [OR]: 1.04, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.07; P < .001), had a high National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS; OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10-1.20; P < .001), and altered mental status at presentation (OR: 2.42, 95% CI: 1.29-4.55; P < .001).

Conclusion:

In our study, elderly patients with high NIHSS and altered mental status were identified as factors associated with transition to hospice care following AIS. Prospective studies on the optimal timing of initiation of these consults are needed.

Reducing age bias in decision analyses of anticoagulation for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation - A microsimulation study

BACKGROUND

Anticoagulation decreases a patient's risk of ischemic stroke and increases the risk of hemorrhage. Decision analyses regarding anticoagulation therefore require that different outcomes be weighted in comparison to one another. Most decision analyses to date have weighted intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) as 1.5 times worse than ischemic stroke, but because death and disability have lifelong impact, the expected impact should vary by life expectancy. Therefore, a fixed weighting ratio leads to age-related bias decision analyses of anticoagulation. We aimed to quantify the relative impact of ICH and ischemic stroke and derive a ratio that allows decision analysis without microsimulation.

METHODS

We created a microsimulation model to predict QALYs lost due to ICH and ischemic stroke. We then applied a meta-model to predict the ratio of QALYs lost from ICH relative to ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

Previously-used weighting ratios (1.5) are close to our derived mean weighting ratio (1.60). However, the weighting ratio of QALYs lost from ICH relative to ischemic stroke is sensitive to age and discount rate. Patients at younger ages have higher mean weighting ratios, as do patients with higher discount rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The ratio of QALYs lost to ICH relative to ischemic stroke varies with age and discount rate. We present a set of such ratios here for use in decision analyses that do not incorporate full microsimulation models. Use of weighting ratios that vary with age, rather than the current fixed ratios, has the potential to reduce age-based bias in decision-making regarding events with lifelong implications. In this case, use of dynamic ratios may change anticoagulation recommendations for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at relatively low stroke risk.

Prevalence of Abnormal Glucose Regulation according to Different Diagnostic Criteria in Ischaemic Stroke without a History of Diabetes

We aimed to investigate the prevalence and distribution of abnormal glucose regulation, including prediabetes and newly diagnosed diabetes, according to different criteria in ischaemic stroke patients without a history of diabetes. Data were derived from a representative cohort across China. Prediabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) 5.6–6.9 mmol/L or 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 7.8–11.0 mmol/L or haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) 5.7–6.4%. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, 2 h OGTT ≥ 11.1 mmol/L or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%. Among 1251 ischaemic stroke patients, 471 (37.5%) were detected as prediabetes and 539 (43.1%) were detected as newly diagnosed diabetes. Prediabetes was present in 118 (9.4%), 290 (23.2%) and 314 (25.1%) stroke patients, and newly diagnosed diabetes was present in 138 (11.0%), 370 (29.6%), and 365 (29.2%) stroke patients, based on FPG, 2 h OGTT, and HbA1c criteria, respectively. Dependency on FPG alone would have missed 74.9% of patients in the prediabetes range and 74.4% of patients in the diabetes range. Our study demonstrated a high prevalence of prediabetes and diabetes in ischaemic stroke patients without a history of diabetes. OGTT and HbA1c helped detect the majority of prediabetes and newly diagnosed diabetes in ischaemic stroke patients.

Effects of centralizing acute stroke services: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effects of centralizing the acute stroke services in the Central Denmark Region (CDR).

METHODS

The CDR (1.3 million inhabitants) centralized acute stroke care from 6 to 2 designated acute stroke units with 7-day outpatient clinics. We performed a prospective "before-and-after" cohort study comparing all strokes from the CDR with strokes in the rest of Denmark to discover underlying general trends, adopting a difference-in-differences approach. The population comprised 22,141 stroke cases hospitalized from May 2011 to April 2012 and May 2013 to April 2014.

RESULTS

Centralization was associated with a significant reduction in length of acute hospital stay from a median of 5 to 2 days with a length-of-stay ratio of 0.53 (95% confidence interval 0.38-0.75, data adjusted) with no corresponding change seen in the rest of Denmark. Similarly, centralization led to a significant increase in strokes with same-day admission (mainly outpatients), whereas this remained unchanged in the rest of Denmark. We observed a significant improvement in quality of care captured in 11 process performance measures in both the CDR and the rest of Denmark. Centralization was associated with a nonsignificant increase in thrombolysis rate. We observed a slight increase in readmissions at day 30, but this was not significantly different from the general trend. Mortality at days 30 and 365 remained unchanged, as in the rest of Denmark.

CONCLUSIONS

Centralizing acute stroke care in the CDR significantly reduced the length of acute hospital stay without compromising quality. Readmissions and mortality stayed comparable to the rest of Denmark.

Infarct volume predicts outcome after decompressive hemicraniectomy for malignant hemispheric stroke

The decision to perform decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) by default in malignant hemispheric stroke (MHS) remains controversial. Even under ideal conditions, DHC usually results in moderate to severe disability. The present study for the first time uses neuroimaging to identify independent outcome predictors in a prospective cohort of 96 MHS patients undergoing DHC. The primary outcome was functional status according to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 12 months and categorized as favorable (mRS 0-3) or unfavorable (mRS 4-6). At 12 months, 19 patients (20%) reached favorable and 77 patients (80%) unfavorable outcome. The overall mean infarct volume was 328 ± 114 ml. Multivariable logistic regression identified age per year (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04-1.24; p = 0.005), infarct volume per cm³ (OR 1.012, 95% CI 1.003-1.022; p = 0.013), thalamic involvement (OR 8.65, 95% CI 1.04-72.15; p = 0.046) and postoperative pneumonia (OR 5.52, 95% CI 1.03-29.57; p = 0.046) as independent outcome predictors, which was confirmed by multivariable ordinal regression for age ( p = 0.004) and infarct volume ( p = 0.015). The infarct volume threshold for reasonable prediction of unfavorable outcome in our patients was 270 cm³, which in the future may help prognostication and development of clinical trials on DHC and outcome in MHS.

Impact of smoking on stroke outcome after endovascular treatment

Background

Recent studies suggest a paradoxical association between smoking status and clinical outcome after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT). Little is known about relationship between smoking and stroke outcome after endovascular treatment (EVT).

Methods

We analyzed data of all stroke patients treated with EVT at the tertiary stroke centre of Berne between January 2005 and December 2015. Using uni- and multivariate modeling, we assessed whether smoking was independently associated with excellent clinical outcome (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 0–1) and mortality at 3 months. In addition, we also measured the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) and recanalization.

Results

Of 935 patients, 204 (21.8%) were smokers. They were younger (60.5 vs. 70.1 years of age, p<0.001), more often male (60.8% vs. 52.5%, p = 0.036), had less often from hypertension (56.4% vs. 69.6%, p<0.001) and were less often treated with antithrombotics (35.3% vs. 47.7%, p = 0.004) as compared to nonsmokers. In univariate analyses, smokers had higher rates of excellent clinical outcome (39.1% vs. 23.1%, p<0.001) and arterial recanalization (85.6% vs. 79.4%, p = 0.048), whereas mortality was lower (15.6% vs. 25%, p = 0.006) and frequency of sICH similar (4.4% vs. 4.1%, p = 0.86). After correcting for confounders, smoking still independently predicted excellent clinical outcome (OR 1.758, 95% CI 1.206–2.562; p<0.001).

Conclusion

Smoking in stroke patients may be a predictor of excellent clinical outcome after EVT. However, these data must not be misinterpreted as beneficial effect of smoking due to the observational study design. In view of deleterious effects of cigarette smoking on cardiovascular health, cessation of smoking should still be strongly recommended for stroke prevention.

Mortality After Pediatric Arterial Ischemic Stroke

OBJECTIVES

Cerebrovascular disease is among the top 10 causes of death in US children, but risk factors for mortality are poorly understood. Within an international registry, we identify predictors of in-hospital mortality after pediatric arterial ischemic stroke (AIS).

METHODS

Neonates (0-28 days) and children (29 days-<19 years) with AIS were enrolled from January 2003 to July 2014 in a multinational stroke registry. Death during hospitalization and cause of death were ascertained from medical records. Logistic regression was used to analyze associations between risk factors and in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Fourteen of 915 neonates (1.5%) and 70 of 2273 children (3.1%) died during hospitalization. Of 48 cases with reported causes of death, 31 (64.6%) were stroke-related, with remaining deaths attributed to medical disease. In multivariable analysis, congenital heart disease (odds ratio [OR]: 3.88; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-12.29; P = .021), posterior plus anterior circulation stroke (OR: 5.36; 95% CI: 1.70-16.85; P = .004), and stroke presentation without seizures (OR: 3.95; 95% CI: 1.26-12.37; P = .019) were associated with in-hospital mortality for neonates. Hispanic ethnicity (OR: 3.12; 95% CI: 1.56-6.24; P = .001), congenital heart disease (OR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.75-5.61; P < .001), and posterior plus anterior circulation stroke (OR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.40-5.25; P = .003) were associated with in-hospital mortality for children.

CONCLUSIONS

In-hospital mortality occurred in 2.6% of pediatric AIS cases. Most deaths were attributable to stroke. Risk factors for in-hospital mortality included congenital heart disease and posterior plus anterior circulation stroke. Presentation without seizures and Hispanic ethnicity were also associated with mortality for neonates and children, respectively. Awareness and study of risk factors for mortality represent opportunities to increase survival.

Impact of Smoking on Clinical Outcome and Recanalization After Intravenous Thrombolysis for Stroke

Background and Purpose—

The impact of smoking on prognosis after stroke is controversial. We aimed to assess the relationship between smoking status and stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis in a large cohort study by adjusting for potential confounders and incorporating recanalization rates.

Methods—

In a prospective observational multicenter study, we analyzed baseline and outcome data of consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke treated with intravenous thrombolysis. Using uni- and multivariable modeling, we assessed whether smoking was associated with favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 0–1) and mortality. In addition, we also measured the occurrence of symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage and recanalization of middle cerebral artery. Patients reporting active cigarette use were classified as smokers.

Results—

Of 1865 patients, 19.8% were smokers (n=369). They were younger (mean 63.5 versus 71.3 years), less often women (56% versus 72.1%), and suffered less often from hypertension (61.3% versus 70.1%) and atrial fibrillation (22.7% versus 35.6%) when compared with nonsmokers. Favorable outcome and 3-month mortality were in favor of smokers in unadjusted analyses (45.8% versus 39.5% and 9.3% versus 15.8%, respectively), whereas symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage was comparable in both cohorts. Smoking was not associated with clinical outcome and mortality after adjusting for confounders (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.91–1.61; P =0.197 and odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 0.68–1.71; P =0.755, respectively). However, smoking still independently predicted recanalization of middle cerebral artery in multivariable analyses (odds ratio, 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.11–6.43; P =0.028).

Conclusions—

Our study suggests that good outcome in smokers is mainly related to differences in baseline characteristics and not to biological effects of smoking. The higher recanalization rates in smokers, however, call for further studies.

Association between admission haematocrit and mortality among men with acute ischaemic stroke

Objective

Anaemia is associated with higher mortality among patients with non-stroke cardiovascular conditions; less is known regarding the relationship between anaemia and mortality among patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

Methods

Medical records were abstracted for n=3965 veterans from 131 Veterans Health Administration facilities who were admitted with ischaemic stroke in fiscal year 2007. Haematocrit values within 24 hours of admission were classified as ≤27%, 28%–32%, 33%–37%, 38%–42%, 43%–47% or ≥48%. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between anaemia and in-hospital, 30-day, 6-month and 1-year mortality, adjusting for age, medical comorbidities, modified Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-III and stroke severity. Impact factors were calculated to standardise comparisons between haematocrit tier and other covariates.

Results

Among n=3750 patients included in the analysis, the haematocrit values were ≤27% in 2.1% (n=78), 28%–32% in 6.2% (n=234), 33%–37% in 17.9% (n=670), 38%–42% in 36.4% (n=1366), 43%–47% in 28.2% (n=1059) and ≥48% in 9.1% (n=343). Patients with haematocrit ≤27%, compared with patients in the 38%–42% range, were more likely to have died across all follow-up intervals, with statistically significant adjusted ORs (aORs) ranging from 2.5 to 3.5. Patients with polycythaemia (ie, haematocrit ≥48%) were at increased risk of in-hospital mortality (aOR=2.9; 95% CI 1.4 to 6.0), compared with patients with mid-range admission haematocrits. Pronounced differences between patients receiving and not receiving blood transfusion limited our ability to perform a propensity analysis. Impact factors in the 1-year mortality model were 0.46 (severe anaemia), 0.06 (cancer) and 0.018 (heart disease).

Conclusions

Anaemia is independently associated with an increased risk of death throughout the first year post stroke; high haematocrit is associated with early poststroke mortality. Severe anaemia is associated with 1-year mortality to a greater degree than cancer or heart disease. These data cannot address the question of whether interventions targeting anaemia might improve patient outcomes.

Biological Age is a predictor of mortality in Ischemic Stroke

Age and stroke severity are the main mortality predictors after ischemic stroke. However, chronological age and biological age are not exactly concordant. Age-related changes in DNA methylation in multiple CpG sites across the genome can be used to estimate biological age, which is influenced by lifestyle, environmental factors, and genetic variation. We analyzed the impact of biological age on 3-month mortality in ischemic stroke. We assessed 594 patients with acute ischemic stroke in a cohort from Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) and validated the results in an independent cohort. Demographic and clinical data, including chronological age, vascular risk factors, initial stroke severity (NIHSS score), recanalization treatment, and previous modified Rankin scale were registered. Biological age was estimated with an algorithm based on DNA methylation in 71 CpGs. Biological age was predictive of 3-month mortality (p = 0.041; OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.00–1.10), independently of NIHSS score, chronological age, TOAST, vascular risk factors, and blood cell composition. Stratified by TOAST classification, biological age was associated with mortality only in large-artery atherosclerosis etiology (p = 0.004; OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.04–1.25). As estimated by DNA methylation, biological age is an independent predictor of 3-month mortality in ischemic stroke regardless of chronological age, NIHSS, previous modified Rankin scale, and vascular risk factors.

Hyperglycaemia and the SOAR stroke score in predicting mortality

BACKGROUND

We assessed the association between admission blood glucose levels and acute stroke mortality and examined whether there was any incremental value of adding glucose status to the validated acute stroke mortality predictor - the SOAR (stroke subtype, Oxford Community Stroke Project classification, age, and pre-stroke modified Rankin) score.

METHODS

Data from Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital stroke and Transient Ischaemic Attack register (2003-2013) and Anglia Stroke Clinical Network Evaluation Study (2009-2012) were analysed. Multivariable logistic regression analysis assessed the association between admission blood glucose levels with inpatient and 7-day mortality. The prognostic ability of the SOAR score was then compared with the SOAR with glucose score.

RESULTS

A total of 5575 acute stroke patients (ischaemic stroke: 89.2%) with mean age (standard deviation) of 76.97 ( ± 11.88 ) years were included. Both borderline hyperglycaemia (7.9-11.0 mmol/L) and hyperglycaemia (>11.0 mmol/L) when compared to normoglycaemia (4.0-7.8 mmol/L) were associated with both 7-day and inpatient mortality after controlling for sex, age, Oxford Community Stroke Project classification and pre-stroke modified Rankin score. Both the SOAR stroke score and SOAR-G score were good predictors of inpatient stroke mortality [area under the curve: 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-0.84)], respectively. These scores were also good at predicting outcomes in both patients with and without diabetes.

CONCLUSION

High blood glucose levels at admission were associated with worse acute stroke mortality outcomes. The constituents of the SOAR stroke score were good at predicting mortality after stroke.

Development and validation of the Dutch Stroke Score for predicting disability and functional outcome after ischemic stroke: A tool to support efficient discharge planning

Introduction

We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic score for disability at discharge and functional outcome at three months in patients with acute ischemic stroke based on clinical information available on admission.

Patients and methods

The Dutch Stroke Score (DSS) was developed in 1227 patients with ischemic stroke included in the Paracetamol (Acetaminophen) In Stroke study. Predictors for Barthel Index (BI) at discharge (‘DSS-discharge’) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at three months (‘DSS-3 months’) were identified in multivariable ordinal regression. The models were internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. The DSS-3 months was externally validated in the PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE study (1589 patients) and the Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (2107 patients). Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination, expressed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration.

Results

At model development, the strongest predictors of Barthel Index at discharge were age per decade over 60 (odds ratio = 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.41–1.68), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (odds ratio = 1.24 per point, 95% CI 1.22–1.26) and diabetes (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% CI 1.32–1.91). The internally validated AUC was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75–0.79). The DSS-3 months, additionally consisting of previous stroke and atrial fibrillation, performed similarly at internal (AUC 0.75, 95% CI 0.74–0.77) and external validation (AUC 0.74 in PRomoting ACute Thrombolysis in Ischemic StrokE (95% CI 0.72–0.76) and 0.69 in Preventive Antibiotics in Stroke Study (95% CI 0.69–0.72)). Observed outcome was slightly better than predicted.

Discussion: The DSS had satisfactory performance in predicting BI at discharge and mRS at three months in ischemic stroke patients.

Conclusion

If further validated, the DSS may contribute to efficient stroke unit discharge planning alongside patients' contextual factors and therapeutic needs.

Prognostic role of hypochloremia in acute ischemic stroke patients

OBJECTIVES

The impact of electrolyte imbalance on clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is still not understood. We investigated the association between hypochloremia and hyponatremia upon hospital admission and in-hospital mortality in AIS patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 3314 AIS patients enrolled from December 2013 to May 2014 across 22 hospitals in Suzhou city were included in this study. Hypochloremia was defined as having a serum chloride concentration <98 mmol/L and hyponatremia as having a serum sodium concentration <135 mmol/L. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the effect of hypochloremia and hyponatremia on all-cause in-hospital mortality in AIS patients.

RESULTS

During hospitalization, 118 patients (3.6%) died from all causes. Multivariable model adjusted for age, sex, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, serum sodium, and other potential covariates showed that hypochloremia was associated with a 2.43-fold increase in the risk of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 2.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-4.19; P=.001). However, no significant association between hyponatremia (P=.905) and in-hospital mortality was observed. Moreover, the multivariable analysis found that serum chloride (HR=0.92, 95% CI 0.88-0.98; P=.004) but not serum sodium (P=.102) was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypochloremia at admission was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in AIS patients.

Validation and comparison of two stroke prognostic models for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to validate and compare two clinical prognostic models for mortality which include the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS); the Age and NIHSS Score (ANS) and case mix model (CMM) of the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program (SSNAP). The NIHSS on admission was also tested as a prognostic score.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prospectively collected data from the SSNAP register for a cohort of patients (ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke) admitted over 1 year to Gloucestershire Royal Hospital, England were accessed. The ANS and CMM were calculated and tested for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality using calibration plots with Hosmer-Lemeshow tests, receiver operating characteristics curves and other measures of prognostic accuracy.

RESULTS

Of 848 patients, 110 (12.9%) died in hospital, 112 (13.2%) at 30 days and 164 (19.2%) at 90 days. Calibration for all three scores was good, although Hosmer-Lemeshow test p values were <0.05 with the NIHSS alone for in hospital and 30-day deaths, suggesting deviation from good fit. The c-statistics for in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality were ANS (0.783, 0.782, 0.779) and CMM (0.783, 0.774, 0.758), respectively. The NIHSS alone showed fair discrimination but performed less well. A NIHSS score ≥6 was associated with significant mortality (p < 0.0001) in comparison to a score <6.

CONCLUSION

A simple prognostic model containing age and admission NIHSS only, performed as well as a more complex score at predicting in hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality. Admission NIHSS recording should be encouraged for stroke registries.

Dehydration is a strong predictor of long-term prognosis of thrombolysed patients with acute ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Dehydration was found to be involved in the poor prognosis of patients with acute ischemic stroke. It is unclear whether dehydration status before onset is related with prognosis of thrombolysed patients with acute ischemic stroke. If it is the case, quickly hydrating may improve the prognosis. The present study was designed to explore the issue.

METHODS

Eligible 294 patients with acute ischemic stroke after thrombolysis were enrolled in the present study according to inclusion/exclusion criteria. According to the modified Rankin scale (mRS) 90 days post stroke, the patients were divided into two groups: mRS 0-2 (n = 191) and mRS 3-6 (n = 103). In the present study, BUN/Cr ≥ 15 combined with USG > 1.010 or either of them were chosen as dehydration marker. Clinical data were analyzed between two groups. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

Age, fibrinogen, blood glucose, BUN/Cr, NIHSS score at admission, the systolic blood pressure (SBP) before thrombolysis, dehydration status (BUN/Cr ≥ 15 plus USG > 1.010), hyperlipidemia, USG and D-dimer on admission day, and TOAST classification showed significant difference between two groups (p < .05). Further stratification analysis showed that BUN/Cr ≥ 15, NIHSS ≥ 6, blood glucose ≥8, and SBP > 150 were markedly associated with poor outcome (mRS 3-6, p < .05). After adjusting for age, fibrinogen, USG, D-dimer, dehydration status, NIHSS, blood glucose, SBP, hyperlipidemia, and BUN/Cr at admission, multivariate logistic regression showed that dehydration status, higher NIHSS, higher blood glucose, and higher SBP at admission were independent risk factors for predicting the long-term poor prognosis of thrombolysed patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The present findings suggest that BUN/Cr ≥ 15 combined with USG > 1.010 as a marker of dehydration status was an independent risk factor for long-term poor prognosis of thrombolysed patients with acute ischemic stroke.