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Kong JD, Tekwa EW, Gignoux-Wolfsohn SA. Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0252373. [PMID: 34106993 PMCID: PMC8189449 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252373] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2021] [Accepted: 05/15/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, and environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to the virus. METHODS We fit logistic growth curves to reported daily case numbers, up to the first epidemic peak, for 58 countries for which 16 explanatory covariates are available. This fitting has been shown to robustly estimate R0 from the specified period. We then use a generalized additive model (GAM) to discern both linear and nonlinear effects, and include 5 random effect covariates to account for potential differences in testing and reporting that can bias the estimated R0. FINDINGS We found that the mean R0 is 1.70 (S.D. 0.57), with a range between 1.10 (Ghana) and 3.52 (South Korea). We identified four factors-population between 20-34 years old (youth), population residing in urban agglomerates over 1 million (city), social media use to organize offline action (social media), and GINI income inequality-as having strong relationships with R0, across countries. An intermediate level of youth and GINI inequality are associated with high R0, (n-shape relationships), while high city population and high social media use are associated with high R0. Pollution, temperature, and humidity did not have strong relationships with R0 but were positive. CONCLUSION Countries have different characteristics that predispose them to greater intrinsic vulnerability to COVID-19. Studies that aim to measure the effectiveness of interventions across locations should account for these baseline differences in social and demographic characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jude Dzevela Kong
- Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM), York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Edward W. Tekwa
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America
- Department of Zoology, University of British Columbia, BC, Canada
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Foster KL, Selvitella AM. On the relationship between COVID-19 reported fatalities early in the pandemic and national socio-economic status predating the pandemic. AIMS Public Health 2021; 8:439-455. [PMID: 34395694 PMCID: PMC8334639 DOI: 10.3934/publichealth.2021034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2021] [Accepted: 05/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between socio-economic determinants pre-dating the pandemic and the reported number of cases, deaths, and the ratio of deaths/cases in 199 countries/regions during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is performed by means of machine learning methods. It involves a portfolio/ensemble of 32 interpretable models and considers the case in which the outcome variables (number of cases, deaths, and their ratio) are independent and the case in which their dependence is weighted based on geographical proximity. We build two measures of variable importance, the Absolute Importance Index (AII) and the Signed Importance Index (SII) whose roles are to identify the most contributing socio-economic factors to the variability of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that, together with the established influence on cases and deaths of the level of mobility, the specific features of the health care system (smart/poor allocation of resources), the economy of a country (equity/non-equity), and the society (religious/not religious or community-based vs not) might contribute to the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths heterogeneously across countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathleen Lois Foster
- Department of Biology, Ball State University, 2111 W. Riverside Ave., Muncie, IN 47306, USA
| | - Alessandro Maria Selvitella
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Purdue University Fort Wayne, 2101 E. Coliseum Blvd., Fort Wayne, IN 46805, USA
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Trentini F, Guzzetta G, Galli M, Zardini A, Manenti F, Putoto G, Marziano V, Gamshie WN, Tsegaye A, Greblo A, Melegaro A, Ajelli M, Merler S, Poletti P. Modeling the interplay between demography, social contact patterns, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the South West Shewa Zone of Oromia Region, Ethiopia. BMC Med 2021; 19:89. [PMID: 33832497 PMCID: PMC8032453 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-021-01967-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/12/2020] [Accepted: 03/19/2021] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 spread may have a dramatic impact in countries with vulnerable economies and limited availability of, and access to, healthcare resources and infrastructures. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, a low prevalence and mortality have been observed so far. METHODS We collected data on individuals' social contacts in the South West Shewa Zone (SWSZ) of Ethiopia across geographical contexts characterized by heterogeneous population density, work and travel opportunities, and access to primary care. We assessed how socio-demographic factors and observed mixing patterns can influence the COVID-19 disease burden, by simulating SARS-CoV-2 transmission in remote settlements, rural villages, and urban neighborhoods, under school closure mandate. RESULTS From national surveillance data, we estimated a net reproduction number of 1.62 (95% CI 1.55-1.70). We found that, at the end of an epidemic mitigated by school closure alone, 10-15% of the population residing in the SWSZ would have been symptomatic and 0.3-0.4% of the population would require mechanical ventilation and/or possibly result in a fatal outcome. Higher infection attack rates are expected in more urbanized areas, but the highest incidence of critical disease is expected in remote subsistence farming settlements. School closure contributed to reduce the reproduction number by 49% and the attack rate of infections by 28-34%. CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that the relatively low burden of COVID-19 in Ethiopia observed so far may depend on social mixing patterns, underlying demography, and the enacted school closures. Our findings highlight that socio-demographic factors can also determine marked heterogeneities across different geographical contexts within the same region, and they contribute to understand why sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a relatively lower attack rate of severe cases compared to high-income countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Filippo Trentini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Giorgio Guzzetta
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Margherita Galli
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.,University of Udine, Udine, Italy
| | - Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.,University of Trento, Trento, Italy
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Alessia Melegaro
- Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.,Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.,Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
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Kwok KO, Huang Y, Tsoi MTF, Tang A, Wong SYS, Wei WI, Hui DSC. Epidemiology, clinical spectrum, viral kinetics and impact of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific region. Respirology 2021; 26:322-333. [PMID: 33690946 PMCID: PMC8207122 DOI: 10.1111/resp.14026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/25/2021] [Accepted: 02/08/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has hit the world by surprise, causing substantial mortality and morbidity since 2020. This narrative review aims to provide an overview of the epidemiology, induced impact, viral kinetics and clinical spectrum of COVID-19 in the Asia-Pacific Region, focusing on regions previously exposed to outbreaks of coronavirus. COVID-19 progressed differently by regions, with some (such as China and Taiwan) featured by one to two epidemic waves and some (such as Hong Kong and South Korea) featured by multiple waves. There has been no consensus on the estimates of important epidemiological time intervals or proportions, such that using them for making inferences should be done with caution. Viral loads of patients with COVID-19 peak in the first week of illness around days 2 to 4 and hence there is very high transmission potential causing community outbreaks. Various strategies such as government-guided and suppress-and-lift strategies, trigger-based/suppression approaches and alert systems have been employed to guide the adoption and easing of control measures. Asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission is a hallmark of COVID-19. Identification and isolation of symptomatic patients alone is not effective in controlling the ongoing outbreaks. However, early, prompt and coordinated enactment predisposed regions to successful disease containment. Mass COVID-19 vaccinations are likely to be the light at the end of the tunnel. There is a need to review what we have learnt in this pandemic and examine how to transfer and improve existing knowledge for ongoing and future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kin On Kwok
- JC School of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
- Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious DiseasesThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
- Shenzhen Research Institute of the Chinese University of Hong KongShenzhenChina
| | - Ying Huang
- JC School of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
| | - Margaret Ting Fong Tsoi
- JC School of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
| | - Arthur Tang
- Department of SoftwareSungkyunkwan UniversitySeoulRepublic of Korea
| | - Samuel Yeung Shan Wong
- JC School of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
| | - Wan In Wei
- JC School of Public Health and Primary CareThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
| | - David Shu Cheong Hui
- Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious DiseasesThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
- Department of Medicine and TherapeuticsThe Chinese University of Hong KongHong Kong Special Administrative RegionChina
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Jentsch PC, Anand M, Bauch CT. Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes: a mathematical modelling study. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2021; 21:1097-1106. [PMID: 33811817 PMCID: PMC8012029 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00057-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 113] [Impact Index Per Article: 37.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2020] [Revised: 01/07/2021] [Accepted: 01/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Background During the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities must decide which groups to prioritise for vaccination in a shifting social–epidemiological landscape in which the success of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions requires broad social acceptance. We aimed to compare projected COVID-19 mortality under four different strategies for the prioritisation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Methods We developed a coupled social–epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in which social and epidemiological dynamics interact with one another. We modelled how population adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions responds to case incidence. In the model, schools and workplaces are also closed and reopened on the basis of reported cases. The model was parameterised with data on COVID-19 cases and mortality, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, population mobility, and demography from Ontario, Canada (population 14·5 million). Disease progression parameters came from the SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological literature. We assumed a vaccine with 75% efficacy against disease and transmissibility. We compared vaccinating those aged 60 years and older first (oldest-first strategy), vaccinating those younger than 20 years first (youngest-first strategy), vaccinating uniformly by age (uniform strategy), and a novel contact-based strategy. The latter three strategies interrupt transmission, whereas the first targets a vulnerable group to reduce disease. Vaccination rates ranged from 0·5% to 5% of the population per week, beginning on either Jan 1 or Sept 1, 2021. Findings Case notifications, non-pharmaceutical intervention adherence, and lockdown undergo successive waves that interact with the timing of the vaccine programme to determine the relative effectiveness of the four strategies. Transmission-interrupting strategies become relatively more effective with time as herd immunity builds. The model predicts that, in the absence of vaccination, 72 000 deaths (95% credible interval 40 000–122 000) would occur in Ontario from Jan 1, 2021, to March 14, 2025, and at a vaccination rate of 1·5% of the population per week, the oldest-first strategy would reduce COVID-19 mortality by 90·8% on average (followed by 89·5% in the uniform, 88·9% in the contact-based, and 88·2% in the youngest-first strategies). 60 000 deaths (31 000–108 000) would occur from Sept 1, 2021, to March 14, 2025, in the absence of vaccination, and the contact-based strategy would reduce COVID-19 mortality by 92·6% on average (followed by 92·1% in the uniform, 91·0% in the oldest-first, and 88·3% in the youngest-first strategies) at a vaccination rate of 1·5% of the population per week. Interpretation The most effective vaccination strategy for reducing mortality due to COVID-19 depends on the time course of the pandemic in the population. For later vaccination start dates, use of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to interrupt transmission might prevent more deaths than prioritising vulnerable age groups. Funding Ontario Ministry of Colleges and Universities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter C Jentsch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada; School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Madhur Anand
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
| | - Chris T Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
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Locatelli I, Trächsel B, Rousson V. Estimating the basic reproduction number for COVID-19 in Western Europe. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0248731. [PMID: 33730041 PMCID: PMC7968714 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Objective To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) for COVID-19 in Western Europe. Methods Data (official statistics) on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 at the start of the outbreak (before any confinement rules were declared) were retrieved in the 15 largest countries in Western Europe, allowing us to estimate the exponential growth rate of the disease. The rate was then combined with estimates of the distribution of the generation interval as reconstructed from the literature. Results Despite the possible unreliability of some official statistics about COVID-19, the spread of the disease appears to be remarkably similar in most European countries, allowing us to estimate an average R0 in Western Europe of 2.2 (95% CI: 1.9–2.6). Conclusions The value of R0 for COVID-19 in Western Europe appears to be significantly lower than that in China. The proportion of immune persons in the European population required to stop the outbreak could thus be closer to 50% than to 70%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isabella Locatelli
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Bastien Trächsel
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Valentin Rousson
- Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
- * E-mail:
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Sustainable Public Safety and the Case of Two Epidemics: COVID-19 and Traffic Crashes. Can We Extrapolate from One to the Other? SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su13063136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
COVID-19 and motor vehicle crashes (MVC) are both considered epidemics by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), yet their progression, treatment and success in treatment have been very different. In this paper, we propose that the well-established sustainable safety approach to road safety can be applied to the management of COVID-19. We compare COVID-19 and MVC in terms of several defining characteristics, including evolvement and history, definitions and measures of evaluation, main attributes and characteristics, countermeasures, management and coping strategies, and key success factors. Despite stark differences, there are also some similarities between the two epidemics, and these enable insights into how the principles of sustainable road safety can be utilized to cope with and guide the treatment of COVID-19. Major guidelines that can be adopted include an aggressive policy set at the highest national level. The policy should be data- and science-based and would be most effective when relying on a systems approach (such as Sweden’s Vision Zero, the Netherlands’ Sustainable Safety, and the recommended EU Safe System). The policy should be enforceable and supplemented with positive public information and education campaigns (rather than scare tactics). Progression of mortality and morbidity should be tracked continuously to enable adjustments. Ethical issues (such as invasion of privacy) should be addressed to maximize public acceptance. Interestingly, the well-established domain of MVC can also benefit from the knowledge, experience, and strategies used in addressing COVID-19 by raising the urgency of detection and recognition of new risk factors (e.g., cell phone distractions), developing and implementing appropriate policy and countermeasures, and emphasizing the saliency of the impact of MVC on our daily lives.
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Suprunenko YF, Cornell SJ, Gilligan CA. Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models. J R Soc Interface 2021; 18:20200966. [PMID: 33784882 PMCID: PMC8086857 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0966] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2020] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Computer simulations of individual-based models are frequently used to compare strategies for the control of epidemics spreading through spatially distributed populations. However, computer simulations can be slow to implement for newly emerging epidemics, delaying rapid exploration of different intervention scenarios, and do not immediately give general insights, for example, to identify the control strategy with a minimal socio-economic cost. Here, we resolve this problem by applying an analytical approximation to a general epidemiological, stochastic, spatially explicit SIR(S) model where the infection is dispersed according to a finite-ranged dispersal kernel. We derive analytical conditions for a pathogen to invade a spatially explicit host population and to become endemic. To derive general insights about the likely impact of optimal control strategies on invasion and persistence: first, we distinguish between 'spatial' and 'non-spatial' control measures, based on their impact on the dispersal kernel; second, we quantify the relative impact of control interventions on the epidemic; third, we consider the relative socio-economic cost of control interventions. Overall, our study shows a trade-off between the two types of control interventions and a vaccination strategy. We identify the optimal strategy to control invading and endemic diseases with minimal socio-economic cost across all possible parameter combinations. We also demonstrate the necessary characteristics of exit strategies from control interventions. The modelling framework presented here can be applied to a wide class of diseases in populations of humans, animals and plants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yevhen F. Suprunenko
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
| | - Stephen J. Cornell
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary, and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZB, UK
| | - Christopher A. Gilligan
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EA, UK
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Evaluating Social Distancing Measures and Their Association with the Covid-19 Pandemic in South America. ISPRS INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEO-INFORMATION 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/ijgi10030121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Social distancing is a powerful non-pharmaceutical intervention used as a way to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus around the world since the end of 2019 in China. Taking that into account, this work aimed to identify variations on population mobility in South America during the pandemic (15 February to 27 October 2020). We used a data-driven approach to create a community mobility index from the Google Covid-19 Community Mobility and relate it to the Covid stringency index from Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Two hypotheses were established: countries which have adopted stricter social distancing measures have also a lower level of circulation (H1), and mobility is occurring randomly in space (H2). Considering a transient period, a low capacity of governments to respond to the pandemic with more stringent measures of social distancing was observed at the beginning of the crisis. In turn, considering a steady-state period, the results showed an inverse relationship between the Covid stringency index and the community mobility index for at least three countries (H1 rejected). Regarding the spatial analysis, global and local Moran indices revealed regional mobility patterns for Argentina, Brazil, and Chile (H1 rejected). In Brazil, the absence of coordinated policies between the federal government and states regarding social distancing may have played an important role for several and extensive clusters formation. On the other hand, the results for Argentina and Chile could be signals for the difficulties of governments in keeping their population under control, and for long periods, even under stricter decrees.
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Baker RE, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks. Nat Commun 2021; 12:846. [PMID: 33558479 PMCID: PMC7870658 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/17/2020] [Accepted: 01/06/2021] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel E Baker
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - Wenchang Yang
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Gabriel A Vecchi
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - C Jessica E Metcalf
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Bryan T Grenfell
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
- Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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Mair MD, Hussain M, Siddiqui S, Das S, Baker A, Conboy P, Valsamakis T, Uddin J, Rea P. A systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the diagnostic accuracy of initial RT-PCR and CT scan in suspected COVID-19 patients. Br J Radiol 2021; 94:20201039. [PMID: 33353381 PMCID: PMC8011239 DOI: 10.1259/bjr.20201039] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the diagnostic accuracy of CT and initial reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for detecting COVID-19 infection. METHODS We searched three databases, PubMed, EMBASE, and EMCARE, to identify studies reporting diagnostic accuracy of both CT and RT-PCR in detecting COVID-19 infection between December 2019 and May 2020. For accurate comparison, only those studies that had patients undergoing both CT and RT-PCR were included. Pooled diagnostic accuracy of both the tests was calculated by using a bivariate random effects model. RESULTS Based on inclusion criteria, only 11 studies consisting of 1834 patients were included in the final analysis that reported diagnostic accuracy of both CT and RT-PCR, in the same set of patients. Sensitivity estimates for CT scan ranged from 0.69 to 1.00 and for RT-PCR varied ranging from 0.47 to 1.00. The pooled estimates of sensitivity for CT and RT-PCR were 0.91 [95% CI (0.84-0.97)] and 0.84 [95% CI (0.71-0.94)], respectively. On subgroup analysis, pooled sensitivity of CT and RT-PCR was 0.95 [95% CI (0.88-0.98)] and 0.91 [95% CI (0.80-0.96), p = o.ooo1]. The pooled specificity of CT and RT-PCR was 0.31 [95% CI (0.035-0.84)] and 1.00 [95% CI (0.96-1.00)]. CONCLUSION CT is more sensitive than RT-PCR in detecting COVID-19 infection, but has a very low specificity. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE Since the results of a CT scan are available quickly, it can be used as an adjunctive initial diagnostic test for patients with a history of positive contact or epidemiological history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manish Devendra Mair
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Mohammed Hussain
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Saad Siddiqui
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Sudip Das
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Andrew Baker
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Peter Conboy
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Theodoros Valsamakis
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Javed Uddin
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
| | - Peter Rea
- Department of Otorhinolaryngology, University Hospital of Leicester, Leicester, UK
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Affiliation(s)
- Meagan C Fitzpatrick
- Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.,Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Alison P Galvani
- Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
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Hindes J, Bianco S, Schwartz IB. Optimal periodic closure for minimizing risk in emerging disease outbreaks. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0244706. [PMID: 33406106 PMCID: PMC7787468 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244706] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Without vaccines and treatments, societies must rely on non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies to control the spread of emerging diseases such as COVID-19. Though complete lockdown is epidemiologically effective, because it eliminates infectious contacts, it comes with significant costs. Several recent studies have suggested that a plausible compromise strategy for minimizing epidemic risk is periodic closure, in which populations oscillate between wide-spread social restrictions and relaxation. However, no underlying theory has been proposed to predict and explain optimal closure periods as a function of epidemiological and social parameters. In this work we develop such an analytical theory for SEIR-like model diseases, showing how characteristic closure periods emerge that minimize the total outbreak, and increase predictably with the reproductive number and incubation periods of a disease- as long as both are within predictable limits. Using our approach we demonstrate a sweet-spot effect in which optimal periodic closure is maximally effective for diseases with similar incubation and recovery periods. Our results compare well to numerical simulations, including in COVID-19 models where infectivity and recovery show significant variation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason Hindes
- U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Simone Bianco
- IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA, United States of America
| | - Ira B. Schwartz
- U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC, United States of America
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64
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Ives AR, Bozzuto C. Estimating and explaining the spread of COVID-19 at the county level in the USA. Commun Biol 2021; 4:60. [PMID: 33402722 PMCID: PMC7785728 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-020-01609-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2020] [Accepted: 12/15/2020] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
The basic reproduction number, R0, determines the rate of spread of a communicable disease and therefore gives fundamental information needed to plan public health interventions. Using mortality records, we estimated the rate of spread of COVID-19 among 160 counties and county-aggregates in the USA at the start of the epidemic. We show that most of the high among-county variance is explained by four factors (R2 = 0.70): the timing of outbreak, population size, population density, and spatial location. For predictions of future spread, population density and spatial location are important, and for the latter we show that SARS-CoV-2 strains containing the G614 mutation to the spike gene are associated with higher rates of spread. Finally, the high predictability of R0 allows extending estimates to all 3109 counties in the conterminous 48 states. The high variation of R0 argues for public health policies enacted at the county level for controlling COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anthony R Ives
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
| | - Claudio Bozzuto
- Wildlife Analysis GmbH, Oetlisbergstrasse 38, 8053, Zurich, Switzerland
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65
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Iyengar KP, Singh B, Vaishya R, Jain VK, Ish P. Should COVID-19 vaccination be made mandatory? Lung India 2021; 38:379-381. [PMID: 34259181 PMCID: PMC8272417 DOI: 10.4103/lungindia.lungindia_181_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Bijayendra Singh
- Department of Orthopaedics, Canterbury Christ Church University, Medway NHS Foundation Trust, NY, UK
| | - Raju Vaishya
- Department of Orthopaedics, Indraprastha Apollo Hospital, Sarita Vihar, New Delhi, India
| | - Vijay Kumar Jain
- Department of Orthopaedics, Atal Bihari Vajpayee Institute of Medical Sciences, Dr Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, New Delhi, India
| | - Pranav Ish
- Department of Pulmonary, Critical Care and Sleep Medicine, VMMC and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi, India
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66
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Bauch CT. Estimating the COVID-19 R number: a bargain with the devil? THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2020; 21:151-153. [PMID: 33685645 PMCID: PMC7581418 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30840-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 10/07/2020] [Indexed: 02/03/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Chris T Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
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67
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Karatayev VA, Anand M, Bauch CT. Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2020; 117:24575-24580. [PMID: 32887803 PMCID: PMC7533690 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2014385117] [Citation(s) in RCA: 60] [Impact Index Per Article: 15.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission among an interconnected group of population centers representing counties, municipalities, and districts (collectively, "counties"). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of reopening (and reclosing, as needed) schools and workplaces county by county, according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide reopening and reclosing, according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. For trigger levels that result in the same number of COVID-19 cases between the two strategies, the local strategy causes significantly fewer person-days of closure, even under high intercounty travel scenarios. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise when county triggers are not coordinated and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage, but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that pandemic planning for the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider local strategies for reopening and reclosing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vadim A Karatayev
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada;
| | - Madhur Anand
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
| | - Chris T Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada
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68
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Kheirallah KA, Alsinglawi B, Alzoubi A, Saidan MN, Mubin O, Alorjani MS, Mzayek F. The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of COVID-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation from Jordan. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2020; 17:E6530. [PMID: 32911738 PMCID: PMC7558493 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17186530] [Citation(s) in RCA: 30] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/03/2020] [Indexed: 02/07/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed health services in the most affected countries. In response, governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing country settings. This study simulated the trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic curve in Jordan between February and May and assessed the effect of Jordan's strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. A modified susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized the Jordanian population into six deterministic compartments: suspected, exposed, infectious pre-symptomatic, infectious with mild symptoms, infectious with moderate to severe symptoms, and recovered. The GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total simulated cumulative case count of 1048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. The reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. NPIs in Jordan seem to be effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Khalid A. Kheirallah
- Department of Public Health, Medical School of Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan;
| | - Belal Alsinglawi
- School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Rydalmere 2116, NSW, Australia;
| | - Abdallah Alzoubi
- Department of Pharmacology, Medical School of Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan;
| | - Motasem N. Saidan
- Chemical Engineering Department, School of Engineering, The University of Jordan, Amman 11942, Jordan;
| | - Omar Mubin
- School of Computer, Data and Mathematical Sciences, Western Sydney University, Rydalmere 2116, NSW, Australia;
| | - Mohammed S. Alorjani
- Department of Pathology and Microbiology, Medical School of Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid 22110, Jordan;
| | - Fawaz Mzayek
- Division of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, The University of Memphis, Memphis, TN 38152, USA;
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69
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Perkins TA, España G. Optimal Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Non-pharmaceutical Interventions. Bull Math Biol 2020; 82:118. [PMID: 32888118 PMCID: PMC7473596 DOI: 10.1007/s11538-020-00795-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire to relax these measures. To characterize a range of possible strategies for control and to understand their consequences, we performed an optimal control analysis of a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Given that the pandemic is already underway and controls have already been initiated, we calibrated our model to data from the USA and focused our analysis on optimal controls from May 2020 through December 2021. We found that a major factor that differentiates strategies that prioritize lives saved versus reduced time under control is how quickly control is relaxed once social distancing restrictions expire in May 2020. Strategies that maintain control at a high level until at least summer 2020 allow for tapering of control thereafter and minimal deaths, whereas strategies that relax control in the short term lead to fewer options for control later and a higher likelihood of exceeding hospital capacity. Our results also highlight that the potential scope for controlling COVID-19 until a vaccine is available depends on epidemiological parameters about which there is still considerable uncertainty, including the basic reproduction number and the effectiveness of social distancing. In light of those uncertainties, our results do not constitute a quantitative forecast and instead provide a qualitative portrayal of possible outcomes from alternative approaches to control.
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Affiliation(s)
- T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute of Global Health, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
| | - Guido España
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute of Global Health, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA
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