The impact of temperature on the bionomics of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, with special reference to the cool geographic range margins

Seasonality modeling of the distribution of Aedes albopictus in China based on climatic and environmental suitability

Background

Aedes albopictus is a highly invasive mosquito species and a major vector of numerous viral pathogens. Many recent dengue fever outbreaks in China have been caused solely by the vector. Mapping of the potential distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus is crucial for epidemic preparedness and the monitoring of vector populations for disease control. Climate is a key factor influencing the distribution of the species. Despite field studies indicating seasonal population variations, very little modeling work has been done to analyze how environmental conditions influence the seasonality of Ae. albopictus. The aim of the present study was to develop a model based on available observations, climatic and environmental data, and machine learning methods for the prediction of the potential seasonal ranges of Ae. albopictus in China.

Methods

We collected comprehensive up-to-date surveillance data in China, particularly records from the northern distribution margin of Ae. albopictus. All records were assigned long-term (1970–2000) climatic data averages based on the WorldClim 2.0 data set. Machine learning regression tree models were developed using a 10-fold cross-validation method to predict the potential seasonal (or monthly) distribution ranges of Ae. albopictus in China at high resolution based on environmental conditions. The models were assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy, using area under curve (AUC). WorldClim 2.0 and climatic and environmental data were used to produce environmental conduciveness (probability) prediction surfaces. Predicted probabilities were generated based on the averages of the 10 models.

Results

During 1998–2017, Ae. albopictus was observed at 200 out of the 242 localities surveyed. In addition, at least 15 new Ae. albopictus occurrence sites lay outside the potential ranges that have been predicted using models previously. The average accuracy was 98.4% (97.1–99.5%), and the average AUC was 99.1% (95.6–99.9%). The predicted Ae. albopictus distribution in winter (December–February) was limited to a small subtropical-tropical area of China, and Ae. albopictus was predicted to occur in northern China only during the short summer season (usually June–September). The predicted distribution areas in summer could reach northeastern China bordering Russia and the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in southwestern China. Ae. albopictus could remain active in expansive areas from central to southern China in October and November.

Conclusions

Climate and environmental conditions are key factors influencing the seasonal distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. The areas predicted to potentially host Ae. albopictus seasonally in the present study could reach northeastern China and the eastern slope of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Our results present new evidence and suggest the expansion of systematic vector population monitoring activities and regular re-assessment of epidemic risk potential.

Effects of Constant and Fluctuating Low Temperatures on the Development of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) from a Temperate Region

Most studies of the effects of low temperature on the development of immature stages of Aedes aegypti (L.) have been performed at constant temperatures in the laboratory, which may not accurately reflect the variable environmental conditions in the field. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the effect of constant temperatures (CT) and fluctuating low temperatures (FT) on the fitness of Ae. aegypti of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Three CT treatments (12, 14, and 16°C) and three FT treatments (12, 14, and 16°C ± 4°C) were performed and then survival, development time, and size of adults analyzed for each treatment. The immature stages completed development in all the treatments, with an average survival of 88% at 16°C, 85% at 14°C, and 22% at 12°C, and showed no differences between the CT and FT treatments. Development times were similar between the CT and FT treatments at 16°C (average ± SD: 22.7 ± 2.0 d) and at 14°C (average ± SD: 30.5 ± 2.5 d), whereas at 12°C, they lasted longer under CT (average ± SD: 46.6 ± 5.1 d) than under FT (average ± SD: 37 ± 6.5 d). The sizes of the adults at 12 and 14°C were similar but larger than those at 16°C, and showed no differences between the CT and FT treatments. Compared to populations of other geographical regions assessed in previous studies, the shorter development times and the high survival at 14 and 16°C, and the ability to complete development at 12°C, a fact not previously reported, suggest that the Ae. aegypti population of Buenos Aires city has a higher tolerance to these conditions.

Consensus and uncertainty in the geographic range of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in the contiguous United States: Multi-model assessment and synthesis

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses. Limited surveillance has led to uncertainty regarding the geographic ranges of these vectors globally, and particularly in regions at the present-day margins of habitat suitability such as the contiguous United States. Empirical habitat suitability models based on environmental conditions can augment surveillance gaps to describe the estimated potential species ranges, but model accuracy is unclear. We identified previously published regional and global habitat suitability models for Ae. aegypti (n = 6) and Ae. albopictus (n = 8) for which adequate information was available to reproduce the models for the contiguous U.S. Using a training subset of recently updated county-level surveillance records of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and records of counties conducting surveillance, we constructed accuracy-weighted, probabilistic ensemble models from these base models. To assess accuracy and uncertainty we compared individual and ensemble model predictions of species presence or absence to both training and testing data. The ensemble models were among the most accurate and also provided calibrated probabilities of presence for each species. The quantitative probabilistic framework enabled identification of areas with high uncertainty and model bias across the U.S. where improved models or additional data could be most beneficial. The results may be of immediate utility for counties considering surveillance and control programs for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Moreover, the assessment framework can drive future efforts to provide validated quantitative estimates to support these programs at local, national, and international scales.

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes can transmit dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, yet because of limited data the edges of the geographic range of these important species remain uncertain. We assessed numerous previously published model-based estimates of the range of these mosquitoes in the United States and combined those models to produce calibrated estimates of the probability of finding each mosquito in each county. Comparing these estimates to county-level data, we found that there are areas of substantial uncertainty and specific areas where model-based predictions do not align well with available data. The results provide specific information that can help guide national- or state-level efforts to monitor and control Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Beyond the specific findings, this approach to leveraging limited data and multiple quantitative models can be employed in other settings to better characterize the distribution of these species and other medically important vectors globally.

Climatic Conditions: Conventional and Nanotechnology-Based Methods for the Control of Mosquito Vectors Causing Human Health Issues

Climate variability is highly impacting on mosquito-borne diseases causing malaria and dengue fever across the globe. Seasonal variability change in temperature and rainfall patterns are impacting on human health. Mosquitoes cause diseases like dengue fever, yellow fever, malaria, Chikungunya, West Nile and Japanese encephalitis. According to estimations by health organizations, annually one million human deaths are caused by vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever has increased about 30-fold over the past 50 years. Similarly, over 200 million cases of malaria are being reported annually. Mosquito-borne diseases are sensitive to temperature, humidity and seasonal variability. Both conventional (environmental, chemical, mechanical, biological etc.) and nanotechnology-based (Liposomes, nano-suspensions and polymer-based nanoparticles) approaches are used for the eradication of Malaria and dengue fever. Now green approaches are used to eradicate mosquitoes to save human health without harming the environment. In this review, the impact of climatic conditions on mosquito-borne diseases along with conventional and nanotechnology-based approaches used for controlling malaria and dengue fever have been discussed. Important recommendations have been made for people to stay healthy.

Aggravation of Human Diseases and Climate Change Nexus

For decades, researchers have debated whether climate change has an adverse impact on diseases, especially infectious diseases. They have identified a strong relationship between climate variables and vector's growth, mortality rate, reproduction, and spatiotemporal distribution. Epidemiological data further indicates the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases post every single extreme weather event. Based on studies conducted mostly between 1990-2018, three aspects that resemble the impact of climate change impact on diseases are: (a) emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne diseases, (b) impact of extreme weather events, and (c) social upliftment with education and adaptation. This review mainly examines and discusses the impact of climate change based on scientific evidences in published literature. Humans are highly vulnerable to diseases and other post-catastrophic effects of extreme events, as evidenced in literature. It is high time that human beings understand the adverse impacts of climate change and take proper and sustainable control measures. There is also the important requirement for allocation of effective technologies, maintenance of healthy lifestyles, and public education.

Adaptation to temperate climates: Evidence of photoperiod-induced embryonic dormancy in Aedes aegypti in South America

Dormancy is a developmental arrest in arthropods, in response to unfavorable conditions in temporally varying environments. In Aedes aegypti, the supposed inability of eggs to inhibit hatching has been used to explain the restriction of this species to tropical and subtropical regions. However, the geographic range of Ae. aegypti is constantly expanding towards temperate regions. Thus, the aim of the present study was to assess the ability of Ae. aegypti individuals from a temperate region (Buenos Aires City, Argentina) to enter photoperiod induced dormancy. To this end, we exposed both the parental generation and the eggs to short-day (SD: 10L:14D) and long-day (LD: 14L:10D) photoperiods, and studied the temporal variation in egg hatching. The experiment consisted of 28 treatment combinations of three factors: parental photoperiod (SD or LD), egg storage photoperiod (SD or LD), and age of eggs (14, 28, 42, 56, 70, 91, and 112 days). The results showed a lower hatching response with the SD parental photoperiod, and a trend to higher hatching with longer egg storage time in all photoperiod treatment combinations. The egg storage photoperiod showed no effect on egg hatching. In both parental photoperiod treatments, egg replicates of most ages from different females showed a large variability, with some replicates with lowest hatching response and others with highest hatching response. Our results show the ability of Ae. aegypti to inhibit egg hatching in response to a short-day photoperiod, which could allow the further expansion of this species to regions with colder winters.

Spatial-Temporal Assessment of Environmental Factors Related to Dengue Outbreaks in São Paulo, Brazil

Dengue fever, a disease caused by a vector-borne flavivirus, is endemic to tropical countries, but its occurrence has been reported worldwide. This study aimed to understand important factors contributing to the spatial and temporal patterns of dengue occurrence in São Paulo, the largest municipality of Brazil. The temporal assessment of dengue occurrence covered the 2011-2016 time period and was based on climatological data, such as the El Niño indices and time series statistical tools such as the continuous wavelet transformation. The spatial assessment used Landsat 8 data for years 2014-2016 to estimate land surface temperature and normalized indices for vegetation, urban areas, and leaf water. Results from a cross correlation for the temporal analysis found a relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies index and the number of reported dengue cases in São Paulo (r = 0.5) with a lag of +29 (weeks) between the climatic event and the response on the dengue incidence. This relationship, initially nonlinear, became linear after correcting for the lag period. For the spatial assessment, the linear stepwise regression model detected a low relationship between dengue incidence and minimum surface temperature (r = 0.357) and no relationship with other environmental parameters. The poor relationship might be due to confounding effects of socioeconomic factors as these seem to influence the spatial dynamics of dengue incidence. More testing is needed to validate these methods in other locations. Nevertheless, we presented possible tools to be used for the improvement of dengue control programs.

General Visual and Contingent Thermal Cues Interact to Elicit Attraction in Female Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes

Female Aedes aegypti mosquitoes use multiple sensory modalities to hunt human hosts and obtain a blood meal for egg production. Attractive cues include carbon dioxide (CO₂), a major component of exhaled breath [1, 2]; heat elevated above ambient temperature, signifying warm-blooded skin [3, 4]; and dark visual contrast [5, 6], proposed to bridge long-range olfactory and short-range thermal cues [7]. Any of these sensory cues in isolation is an incomplete signal of a human host, and so a mosquito must integrate multimodal sensory information before committing to approaching and biting a person [8]. Here, we study the interaction of visual cues, heat, and CO₂ to investigate the contributions of human-associated stimuli to host-seeking decisions. We show that tethered flying mosquitoes strongly orient toward dark visual contrast, regardless of CO₂ stimulation and internal host-seeking status. This suggests that attraction to visual contrast is general and not contingent on other host cues. In free-flight experiments with CO₂, adding a dark contrasting visual cue to a warmed surface enhanced attraction. Moderate warmth became more attractive to mosquitoes, and mosquitoes aggregated on the cue at all non-noxious temperatures. Gr3 mutants, unable to detect CO₂, were lured to the visual cue at ambient temperatures but fled and did not return when the surface was warmed to host-like temperatures. This suggests that attraction to thermal cues is contingent on the presence of the additional sensory cue CO₂. Our results illustrate that mosquitoes integrate general attractive visual stimuli with context-dependent thermal stimuli to seek promising sites for blood feeding.

A Survey for Aedes aegypti in Delaware and the Virus-Positive Pool Rates of Aedes albopictus and Aedes triseriatus for West Nile and Zika Viruses

The introduction of Zika virus to the USA in 2015 engendered heightened interest in its known vectors. Aedes aegypti is the primary vector, with Ae. albopictus considered a potential secondary vector, together with several other possible marginal vectors. In Delaware, Ae. aegypti has been collected rarely, but no breeding populations were detected during past intensive statewide surveillance efforts. However, there is an abundance of Ae. albopictus statewide. Both species are container breeders and are peri-domestic-increasing the risk for virus transmission to humans. From July through September 2017, Delaware Mosquito Control conducted surveillance in 16 container-breeding hot spots to search for Ae. aegypti, and also ascertain the virus-positive pool rates of Ae. albopictus and Ae. triseriatus for West Nile virus (WNV) and Zika virus (ZIKV). The survey concluded that there were no known breeding populations of Ae. aegypti in Delaware, and no WNV- or ZIKV-positive pools were detected among pools of mosquitoes of the aforementioned species.

Surveys of Arboviruses Vectors in Four Cities Stretching Along a Railway Transect of Burkina Faso: Risk Transmission and Insecticide Susceptibility Status of Potential Vectors

Background: A severe outbreak of dengue occurred in Burkina Faso in 2016, with the most cases reported in Ouagadougou, that highlights the necessity to implement vector surveillance system. This study aims to estimate the risk of arboviruses transmission and the insecticide susceptibility status of potential vectors in four sites in Burkina Faso.

Methods: From June to September 2016, house-to-house cross sectional entomological surveys were performed in four cities stretching along a southwest-to-northeast railway transect. The household surveys analyzed the presence of Aedes spp. larvae in containers holding water and the World Health Organization (WHO) larval abundance indices were estimated. WHO tube assays was used to evaluate the insecticide susceptibility within Aedes populations from these localities.

Results: A total of 31,378 mosquitoes' larvae were collected from 1,330 containers holding water. Aedes spp. was the most abundant (95.19%) followed by Culex spp. (4.75%). Aedes aegypti a key vector of arboviruses (ARBOV) in West Africa was the major Aedes species found (98.60%). The relative larval indices, house index, container and Breteau indexes were high, up to 70, 35, and 10, respectively. Aedes aegypti tended to breed mainly in discarded tires and terracotta jars. Except in Banfora the western city, Ae. aegypti populations were resistant to deltamethrin 0.05% in the other localities with low mortality rate under 20% in Ouagadougou whereas they were fully susceptible to malathion 5% whatever the site. Intermediate resistance was observed in the four sites with mortality rates varying between 78 and 94% with bendiocarb 0.1%.

Conclusions: This study provided basic information on entomological indices that can help to monitor the risks of ARBOV epidemics in the main cities along the railway in Burkina Faso. In these cities, all larval indices exceeded the risk level of ARBOV outbreak. Aedes aegypti the main species collected was resistant to deltamethrin 0.05% and bendiocarb 0.1% whereas they were fully susceptible to malathion 5%. The monitoring of insecticide resistance is also important to be integrated to the vector surveillance system in Burkina Faso.

Seasonal patterns of dengue fever in rural Ecuador: 2009-2016

Season is a major determinant of infectious disease rates, including arboviruses spread by mosquitoes, such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika. Seasonal patterns of disease are driven by a combination of climatic or environmental factors, such as temperature or rainfall, and human behavioral time trends, such as school year schedules, holidays, and weekday-weekend patterns. These factors affect both disease rates and healthcare-seeking behavior. Seasonality of dengue fever has been studied in the context of climatic factors, but short- and long-term time trends are less well-understood. With 2009–2016 medical record data from patients diagnosed with dengue fever at two hospitals in rural Ecuador, we used Poisson generalized linear modeling to determine short- and long-term seasonal patterns of dengue fever, as well as the effect of day of the week and public holidays. In a subset analysis, we determined the impact of school schedules on school-aged children. With a separate model, we examined the effect of climate on diagnosis patterns. In the first model, the most important predictors of dengue fever were annual sinusoidal fluctuations in disease, long-term trends (as represented by a spline for the full study duration), day of the week, and hospital. Seasonal trends showed single peaks in case diagnoses, during mid-March. Compared to the average of all days, cases were more likely to be diagnosed on Tuesdays (risk ratio (RR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–1.51) and Thursdays (RR: 1.25, 95% CI 1.02–1.53), and less likely to be diagnosed on Saturdays (RR: 0.81, 95% CI 0.65–1.01) and Sundays (RR: 0.74, 95% CI 0.58–0.95). Public holidays were not significant predictors of dengue fever diagnoses, except for an increase in diagnoses on the day after Christmas (RR: 2.77, 95% CI 1.46–5.24). School schedules did not impact dengue diagnoses in school-aged children. In the climate model, important climate variables included the monthly total precipitation, an interaction between total precipitation and monthly absolute minimum temperature, an interaction between total precipitation and monthly precipitation days, and a three-way interaction between minimum temperature, total precipitation, and precipitation days. This is the first report of long-term dengue fever seasonality in Ecuador, one of few reports from rural patients, and one of very few studies utilizing daily disease reports. These results can inform local disease prevention efforts, public health planning, as well as global and regional models of dengue fever trends.

Dengue fever exhibits a seasonal pattern in many parts of the world, much of which has been attributed to climate and weather. However, additional factors may contribute to dengue seasonality. With 2009–2016 medical record data from rural Ecuador, we studied the short- and long-term seasonal patterns of dengue fever, as well as the effect of school schedules and public holidays. We also examined the effect of climate on dengue. We found that dengue diagnoses peak once per year in mid-March, but that diagnoses are also affected by day of the week. Dengue was also impacted by regional climate and complex interactions between local weather variables. This is the first report of long-term dengue fever seasonality in Ecuador, one of few reports from rural patients, and one of very few studies utilizing daily disease reports. This is the first report on the impacts of school schedules, holidays, and weekday-weekend patterns on dengue diagnoses. These results suggest a potential impact of human behaviors on dengue exposure risk. More broadly, these results can inform local disease prevention efforts and public health planning, as well as global and regional models of dengue fever trends.

Life on the margin: Rainwater tanks facilitate overwintering of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, in a sub-tropical climate

A key determinant of insect persistence in marginal habitats is the ability to tolerate environmental extremes such as temperature. Aedes aegypti is highly invasive and little is known about the physiological sensitivity of the species to fluctuating temperature regimes at the lower critical threshold for development. A temperature that may limit the establishment and persistence of the species in sub-optimal regions. Daily winter temperatures were measured in common Australian larval habitats, replicated in environmental chambers and used to investigate the effect of fluctuating temperatures on the development and survival of tropical and subtropical strains of Australian Ae. aegypti. Development was slow for all treatments but both strains were able to complete development to the adult stage, suggesting previous models underestimate the potential for the species to persist in eastern Australia. Results suggested that thermal buffering in large volume habitats, and water that persists for greater than 32 days, will facilitate completion of the life cycle during sub-tropical winters. Furthermore, we provide a non-linear estimate of the lower critical temperature for Ae. aegypti development that suggests the current threshold may be incorrect. Our study demonstrates that the current re-introduction of water storage containers such as rainwater tanks, into major Australian population centres will increase the risk of Ae. aegypti establishment by permitting year-round development in locations south of its current distribution.

Predation on Eggs of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae): Temporal Dynamics and Identification of Potential Predators During the Winter Season in a Temperate Region

In temperate regions, the populations of Aedes aegypti (L.) remain in the egg stage during the cold season. The ability of these eggs to survive until the next favorable season is affected by several mortality factors, including the action of predators. In the present study, we analyzed the temporal dynamics of the loss of eggs and identified predators of Ae. aegypti eggs along the unfavorable season in a temperate region of Argentina. To this end, eggs were exposed in field conditions in pitfall traps, where walking arthropod taxa were captured during 1-wk periods from early June to early September (Austral winter). The association of arthropod taxa with the loss of eggs was analyzed to identify potential predators. Based on the results obtained, two taxa were chosen to confirm their capacity to consume eggs in a laboratory study. The proportion of lost eggs and the abundance of predators were significantly higher in the winter-spring transition, although results were heterogeneous among traps in all exposure periods. Ants of the genus Strumigenys, isopods of the species Armadillidium vulgare (Isopoda: Armadilloidea), and dermapterans of the species Euborellia annulipes (Dermaptera: Anisolabidae) were positively associated with a high proportion of lost eggs. In laboratory conditions, A. vulgare and E. annulipes consumed the offered eggs, thus confirming their predator capacity. This study represents the first record of predation of Ae. aegypti eggs in temperate South America and the first evidence of dermapterans consuming mosquito eggs.

Zika Virus Mosquito Vectors: Competence, Biology, and Vector Control

Zika virus (ZIKV) (Flaviviridae, Flavivirus) has become one of the most medically important mosquito-borne viruses because of its ability to cause microcephaly in utero and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults. This virus emerged from its sylvatic cycle in Africa to cause an outbreak in Yap, Federated States of Micronesia in 2007, French Polynesia in 2014, and most recently South America in 2015. The rapid expansion of ZIKV in the Americas largely has been due to the biology and behavior of its vector, Aedes aegypti. Other arboviruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti include the 2 flaviviruses dengue virus and yellow fever virus and the alphavirus chikungunya virus, which are also (re)emerging viruses in the Americas. This mosquito vector is highly domesticated, living in close association with humans in urban households. Its eggs are desiccation resistant, and the larvae develop rapidly in subtropical and tropical environments. Climate warming is facilitating range expansion of Ae. aegypti, adding to the threat this mosquito poses to human health, especially in light of the difficulty controlling it. Aedes albopictus, another highly invasive arbovirus vector that has only been implicated in one country (Gabon), is an important vector of ZIKV, but because of its wide geographic distribution may become a more important vector in the future. This article discusses the historical background of ZIKV and the biology and ecology of these 2 vectors.

Zika Virus and Future Research Directions

There was a dramatic upsurge in research activity after the recognition of Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in South America in 2015 and its causal relationship to devastating anomalies in newborn infants. Progress in this area required a community of arbovirologists poised to refocus their research efforts and rapidly characterize the features of ZIKV transmission and infection through diverse multidisciplinary collaborations. Significant gaps remain in our knowledge of the natural history of ZIKV infection, its effects on neurodevelopment, modes and risk of transmission, and its interrelationship with other arbovirus infections. Development of effective countermeasures, such as therapeutics and an effective vaccine, are also research priorities. Lessons learned from our research response to ZIKV may help public health officials plan for the next emerging infectious disease threat.The last 18 months have witnessed one of the most rapid and coordinated research responses against an emerging disease to date. Zika virus, a pathogen that has been known since 1947 but poorly studied until recently because it was believed to only cause a mild infection, has rapidly become the object of intense investigation by the international research community since the link between infection and severe congenital disease was announced by Brazilian authorities in November 2015. According to PubMed, the total number of ZIKV-related publications skyrocketed from 117 in 2015 to 3253 in August of 2017. This supplement summarizes the tremendous progress that has been made since 2015 to elucidate the biology of this virus, its various disease manifestations in humans and animals, the diverse routes by which it is transmitted, and the role of various mosquito vectors in the recent outbreaks. In addition, several efforts have been initiated to develop new diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines, and vector control strategies to better detect, treat, and prevent this important infection. There are 3 factors that contributed to the rapid progress in ZIKV research: (1) the availability of dedicated funding for ZIKV research; (2) the prior existence of both flavivirologists and maternal-child health researchers who were poised to tackle this new public health challenge; and (3) the high level of coordination and collaboration between different research agencies worldwide.Despite the significant progress, many significant questions remain to be addressed to accelerate the development of effective ZIKV countermeasures and increase our preparedness against this significant public health threat. Some of the most pressing scientific gaps that need to be addressed to advance the field are summarized below.

Location, seasonal, and functional characteristics of water holding containers with juvenile and pupal Aedes aegypti in Southern Taiwan: A cross-sectional study using hurdle model analyses

Background

Aedes aegypti carries several viruses of public health importance, including the dengue virus. Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world. Prevention and control of dengue mainly rely on mosquito control as there is no antiviral treatment or a WHO-approved vaccine. To reduce the Ae. aegypti population, studying the characteristics of their habitats is necessary. Aedes aegypti prefer breeding in artificial water holding containers in peridomestic or domestic settings. Their juveniles (1^st - 4^th instar larvae and pupae) have a tendency to cluster in certain types of containers. To inform control strategies, it is important to assess whether the pupae subgroup has a distinct distribution by container type as compared to the overall group of juveniles. The objective of this study was to assess for distinct predictors (location, season, and function) of Ae. aegypti juveniles and pupae numbers in water holding containers by applying hurdle model analyses.

Methodology

The field component of this study was carried out from November 2013 to July 2015 in Southern Taiwan where annual autochthonous dengue has been reported for decades. Water holding containers with stagnant water were identified in a predefined urban area in Kaohsiung City (KH) and a rural area in Pingtung County. Given that mosquito survey data often include many containers with zero Ae. aegypti, a negative binomial hurdle model was applied to model the association between location, seasonal and functional characteristics of the water holding containers and the number of Ae. aegypti in each container.

Results

The results showed that Ae. aegypti were almost exclusively present in the urban area. In this area, the negative binomial hurdle model predicted significantly more juveniles as well as pupae Ae. aegypti in water holding containers during the wet season when compared to the dry season. Notably, the model predicted more juveniles in containers located on private property compared to those on government property, irrespective of season. As for pupae, the model predicted higher amounts in indoor containers used for water storage compared to outdoor water storage containers, irrespective of season. However, for the specific category ‘other water receptacle’, higher amounts of pupae were predicted in outdoor compared to indoor in water receptacles, such as flower pot saucers and water catchment buckets.

Conclusions

The difference in predictors for juveniles and the pupae subgroup was identified and it may be of importance to the control strategies of the authorities in KH. At present the authorities focus control activities on all water holding containers found on government property. To improve the ongoing control efforts in KH, the focus of control activities maintained by the KH authorities should be expanded to indoor water storage containers and outdoor water receptacles on both private and government properties to adequately address habitats harboring greater numbers of pupae. In addition, it is proposed to increase community engagement in managing water in all types of water holding containers located on privately owned properties (indoor and outdoor), especially during wet season.

Dengue is considered the most significant mosquito-borne disease, globally. It is transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti throughout most affected countries. In order to prevent dengue, most control efforts focus on removing Ae. aegypti from the environment, as currently there are no anti-viral treatment or WHO approved vaccine. Removing or destroying the breeding sites of Ae. aegypti is generally recommended. However, this may be difficult as the mosquito breeds in a wide variety of water holding containers readily available in the human environment. The urban areas of Southern Taiwan have experienced annual dengue epidemics for decades in spite of substantial efforts to control Ae. aegypti. In this study we investigated whether containers harboring the highest number of Ae. aegypti differ between all active aquatic stages (larvae and pupae) and the final aquatic stage (pupae only). In Kaohsiung City in Southern Taiwan, we found that more Ae. aegypti were predicted to be in containers on private property, compared with government property, when assessing all aquatic stages. However, for pupae only, more were found in indoor containers used for water storage when compared with outdoor water storage containers. For the specific category ‘other water receptacle’ such as flower pot saucers and water catchment buckets, the model predicted more pupae in outdoor containers compared with indoor containers. We recommend that future control efforts target these types of containers to reduce the risk of dengue transmission in Southern Taiwan.

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

Mosquitoes cannot control their body temperature, so their survival and performance depend on the temperature where they live. As a result, outside temperatures can also affect the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes. This has left scientists wondering how climate change may affect the spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Predicting the effects of climate change on such diseases is tricky, because many interacting factors, including temperatures and rainfall, affect mosquito populations. Also, rising temperatures do not always have a positive effect on mosquitoes – they may help mosquitoes initially, but it can get too warm even for these animals.

Climate change could affect the Ross River virus, the most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia. The virus infects 2,000 to 9,000 people each year and can cause long-term joint pain and disability. Currently, the virus spreads year-round in tropical, northern Australia and seasonally in temperate, southern Australia. Large outbreaks have occurred outside of Australia, and scientists are worried it could spread worldwide.

Now, Shocket et al. have built a model that predicts how the spread of Ross River virus changes with temperature. Shocket et al. used data from laboratory experiments that measured mosquito and virus performance across a broad range of temperatures. The experiments showed that ~26°C (80°F) is the optimal temperature for mosquitoes to spread the Ross River virus. Temperatures below 17°C (63°F) and above 32°C (89°F) hamper the spread of the virus. These temperature ranges match the current disease patterns in Australia where human cases peak in March. This is two months after the country’s average temperature reaches the optimal level and about how long it takes mosquito populations to grow, infect people, and for symptoms to develop.

Because northern Australia is already near the optimal temperature for mosquitos to spread the Ross River virus, any climate warming should decrease transmission there. But warming temperatures could increase the disease’s transmission in the southern part of the country, where most people live. The model Shocket et al. created may help the Australian government and mosquito control agencies better plan for the future.

Implications of Zika virus and congenital Zika syndrome for the number of live births in Brazil

An increase in microcephaly, associated with an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Brazil, prompted the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016. While knowledge on biological and epidemiological aspects of ZIKV has advanced, demographic impacts remain poorly understood. This study uses time-series analysis to assess the impact of ZIKV on births. Data on births, fetal deaths, and hospitalizations due to abortion complications for Brazilian states, from 2010 to 2016, were used. Forecasts for September 2015 to December 2016 showed that 119,095 fewer births than expected were observed, particularly after April 2016 (a reduction significant at 0.05), demonstrating a link between publicity associated with the ZIKV epidemic and the decline in births. No significant changes were observed in fetal death rates. Although no significant increases in hospitalizations were forecasted, after the ZIKV outbreak hospitalizations happened earlier in the gestational period in most states. We argue that postponement of pregnancy and an increase in abortions may have contributed to the decline in births. Also, it is likely that an increase in safe abortions happened, albeit selective by socioeconomic status. Thus, the ZIKV epidemic resulted in a generation of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) babies that reflect and exacerbate regional and social inequalities. Since ZIKV transmission has declined, it is unlikely that reductions in births will continue. However, the possibility of a new epidemic is real. There is a need to address gaps in reproductive health and rights, and to understand CZS risk to better inform conception decisions.

Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission

Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24–25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25–35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

Mosquito-borne viruses like dengue, Zika, and chikungunya have recently caused large epidemics that are partly driven by temperature. Using a mathematical model built from laboratory experimental data for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and dengue virus, we examine the impact of variation in seasonal temperature regimes on epidemic size and duration. At constant temperatures, both low and high temperatures (20°C and 35°C) produce small epidemics, while intermediate temperatures like 25°C and 30°C produce much larger epidemics. In seasonally varying temperature environments, epidemics peak more rapidly at higher starting temperatures, while intermediate starting temperatures produce the largest epidemics. Seasonal mean temperatures of 25–35°C are most suitable for large epidemics when seasonality is low, but in more variable seasonal environments epidemic suitability peaks at lower annual average temperatures. Tropical and sub-tropical cities have the highest temperature suitability for epidemics, but more temperate cities with high seasonal variation also have the potential for very large epidemics.

Effects of desiccation stress on adult female longevity in Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae): results of a systematic review and pooled survival analysis

Background

Transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne viruses such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya are affected by the longevity of the adult female mosquito. Environmental conditions influence the survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes, the primary vectors of these viruses. While the association of temperature with Aedes mortality has been relatively well-explored, the role of humidity is less established. The current study’s goals were to compile knowledge of the influence of humidity on adult survival in the important vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, and to quantify this relationship while accounting for the modifying effect of temperature.

Methods

We performed a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting experimental results informing the relationships among temperature, humidity and adult survival in Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Using a novel simulation approach to harmonize disparate survival data, we conducted pooled survival analyses via stratified and mixed effects Cox regression to estimate temperature-dependent associations between humidity and mortality risk for these species across a broad range of temperatures and vapor pressure deficits.

Results

After screening 1517 articles, 17 studies (one in semi-field and 16 in laboratory settings) met inclusion criteria and collectively reported results for 192 survival experiments. We review and synthesize relevant findings from these studies. Our stratified model estimated a strong temperature-dependent association of humidity with mortality in both species, though associations were not significant for Ae. albopictus in the mixed effects model. Lowest mortality risks were estimated around 27.5 °C and 21.5 °C for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively, and mortality increased non-linearly with decreasing humidity. Aedes aegypti had a survival advantage relative to Ae. albopictus in the stratified model under most conditions, but species differences were not significant in the mixed effects model.

Conclusions

Humidity is associated with mortality risk in adult female Ae. aegypti in controlled settings. Data are limited at low humidities, temperature extremes, and for Ae. albopictus, and further studies should be conducted to reduce model uncertainty in these contexts. Desiccation is likely an important factor in Aedes population dynamics and viral transmission in arid regions. Models of Aedes-borne virus transmission may be improved by more comprehensively representing humidity effects.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2808-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecological niche modeling of Aedes mosquito vectors of chikungunya virus in southeastern Senegal

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) originated in a sylvatic cycle of transmission between non-human animal hosts and vector mosquitoes in the forests of Africa. Subsequently the virus jumped out of this ancestral cycle into a human-endemic transmission cycle vectored by anthropophilic mosquitoes. Sylvatic CHIKV cycles persist in Africa and continue to spill over into humans, creating the potential for new CHIKV strains to enter human-endemic transmission. To mitigate such spillover, it is first necessary to delineate the distributions of the sylvatic mosquito vectors of CHIKV, to identify the environmental factors that shape these distributions, and to determine the association of mosquito presence with key drivers of virus spillover, including mosquito and CHIKV abundance. We therefore modeled the distribution of seven CHIKV mosquito vectors over two sequential rainy seasons in Kédougou, Senegal using Maxent.

Methods

Mosquito data were collected in fifty sites distributed in five land cover classes across the study area. Environmental data representing land cover, topographic, and climatic factors were included in the models. Models were compared and evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) statistics. The correlation of model outputs with abundance of individual mosquito species as well as CHIKV-positive mosquito pools was tested.

Results

Fourteen models were produced and evaluated; the environmental variables most strongly associated with mosquito distributions were distance to large patches of forest, landscape patch size, rainfall, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Seven models were positively correlated with mosquito abundance and one (Aedes taylori) was consistently, positively correlated with CHIKV-positive mosquito pools. Eight models predicted high relative occurrence rates of mosquitoes near the villages of Tenkoto and Ngary, the areas with the highest frequency of CHIKV-positive mosquito pools.

Conclusions

Of the environmental factors considered here, landscape fragmentation and configuration had the strongest influence on mosquito distributions. Of the mosquito species modeled, the distribution of Ae. taylori correlated most strongly with abundance of CHIKV, suggesting that presence of this species will be a useful predictor of sylvatic CHIKV presence.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-2832-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti

The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue and chikungunya, two globally-important vector-borne diseases. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061-2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950-2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km² is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8% (RCP4.5) to 13% (RCP8.5) by 2061-2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298-460 M (8-12%) by 2061-2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805-5084 M (127-134%) for SSP3 and 2232-2483 M (59-65%) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change.

Critical low temperature for the survival of Aedes aegypti in Taiwan

Background

Taiwan is geographically located in a region that spans both tropical and subtropical climates (22–25°N and 120–122°E). The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control have found that the ecological habitat of Aedes aegypti appears only south of 23.5°N. Low temperatures may contribute to this particular habitat distribution of Ae. aegypti under the influence of the East Asian winter monsoon. However, the threshold condition related to critically low temperatures remains unclear because of the lack of large-scale spatial studies. This topic warrants further study, particularly through national entomological surveillance and satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) data.

Methods

We hypothesized that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is highly correlated with the threshold nighttime LST and that a critical low LST limits the survival of Ae. aegypti. A mosquito dataset collected from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control was utilized in conjunction with image data obtained from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) during 2009–2011. Spatial interpolation and phi coefficient methods were used to analyze the correlation between the distributions of immature forms of Ae. aegypti and threshold LST, which was predicted from MODIS calculations for 348 townships in Taiwan.

Results

According to the evaluation of the correlation between estimated nighttime temperatures and the occurrence of Ae. aegypti, winter had the highest peak phi coefficient, and the corresponding estimated threshold temperatures ranged from 13.7 to 14 °C in the ordinary kriging model, which was the optimal interpolation model in terms of the root mean square error. The mean threshold temperature was determined to be 13.8 °C, which is a critical temperature to limit the occurrence of Ae. aegypti.

Conclusions

An LST of 13.8 °C was found to be the critical temperature for Ae. aegypti larvae, which results in the near disappearance of Ae. aegypti during winter in the subtropical regions of Taiwan under the influence of the prevailing East Asian winter monsoon.

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960-2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Abundance Model Improved With Relative Humidity and Precipitation-Driven Egg Hatching

We propose an improved Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance model that takes into account the effect of relative humidity (RH) on adult survival, as well as rainfall-triggered egg hatching. The model uses temperature-dependent development rates described in the literature as well as documented estimates for mosquito survival in environments with high RH, and for egg desiccation. We show that combining the two additional components leads to better agreement with surveillance trap data and with dengue incidence reports in various municipalities of Puerto Rico than incorporating either alone or neither. Capitalizing on the positive association between disease incidence and vector abundance, this improved model is therefore useful to estimate incidence of Ae. aegypti-borne diseases in locations where the vector is abundant year-round.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change on disease vectors through ecological niche modelling

Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.

A cross-sectional survey of Aedes aegypti immature abundance in urban and rural household containers in central Colombia

BACKGROUND

Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue, breeds in domestic water containers. The development of immature mosquitoes in such containers is influenced by various environmental, ecological and socioeconomic factors. Urban and rural disparities in water storage practices and water source supply may affect mosquito immature abundance and, potentially, dengue risk. We evaluated the effect of water and container characteristics on A. aegypti immature abundance in urban and rural areas. Data were collected in the wet season of 2011 in central Colombia from 36 urban and 35 rural containers, which were either mosquito-positive or negative. Immature mosquitoes were identified to species. Data on water and container characteristics were collected from all containers.

RESULTS

A total of 1452 Aedes pupae and larvae were collected of which 81% were A. aegypti and 19% A. fluviatilis. Aedes aegypti immatures were found in both urban and rural sites. However, the mean number of A. aegypti pupae was five times higher in containers in the urban sites compared to those in the rural sites. One of the important factors associated with A. aegypti infestation was frequency of container washing. Monthly-washed or never-washed containers were both about four times more likely to be infested than those washed every week. There were no significant differences between urban and rural sites in frequency of washing containers. Aedes aegypti immature infestation was positively associated with total dissolved solids, but negatively associated with dissolved oxygen. Water temperature, total dissolved solids, ammonia, nitrate, and organic matter were significantly higher in urban than in rural containers, which might explain urban-rural differences in breeding of A. aegypti. However, many of these factors vary substantially between studies and in their degree of association with vector breeding, therefore they may not be reliable indices for vector control interventions.

CONCLUSIONS

Although containers in urban areas were more likely to be infested with A. aegypti, rural containers still provide suitable habitats for A. aegypti. Containers that are washed more frequent are less likely to produce A. aegypti. These results highlight the importance of container washing as an effective vector control tool in both urban and rural areas. In addition, alternative designs of the highly productive washbasins should continue to be explored. To control diseases such as dengue, Zika and chikungunya, effective vector breeding site control must be implemented in addition to other interventions.

Effect of Temperature Thresholds on Modeled Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Dynamics

Dynamic simulation models provide vector abundance estimates using only meteorological data. However, model outcomes may heavily depend on the assumptions used to parameterize them. We conducted a sensitivity analysis for a model of Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance using weather data from two locations where this vector is established, La Margarita, Puerto Rico and Tucson, Arizona. We tested the effect of simplifying temperature-dependent development and mortality rates and of changing development and mortality thresholds as compared with baselines estimated using biophysical models. The simplified development and mortality rates had limited effect on abundance estimates in either location. However, in Tucson, where the vector is established but has not transmitted viruses, a difference of 5 °C resulted in populations either surviving or collapsing in the hot Arizona mid-summer, depending on the temperature thresholds. We find three important implications of the observed sensitivity to temperature thresholds. First, this analysis indicates the need for better estimates of the temperature tolerance thresholds to refine entomologic risk mapping for disease vectors. Second, our results highlight the importance of extreme temperatures on vector survival at the marginal areas of this vector's distribution. Finally, the model suggests that adaptation to warmer temperatures may shift regions of pathogen transmission.

Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact

High summer temperatures in extratropical areas have an impact on the public's health, mainly through heat stress, high air pollution concentrations, and the transmission of tropical diseases. The purpose of this study is to examine the current characteristics of heat events and future projections of summer apparent temperature (AT)-and associated health concerns-throughout the southeastern United States. Synoptic climatology was used to assess the atmospheric characteristics of extreme heat days (EHDs) from 1979-2015. Ozone concentrations also were examined during EHDs. Trends in summer-season AT over the 37-year period and correlations between AT and atmospheric circulation were determined. Mid-century estimates of summer AT were calculated using downscaled data from an ensemble of global climate models. EHDs throughout the Southeast were characterized by ridging and anticyclones over the Southeast and the presence of moist tropical air masses. Exceedingly high ozone concentrations occurred on EHDs in the Atlanta area and throughout central North Carolina. While summer ATs did not increase significantly from 1979-2015, summer ATs are projected to increase substantially by mid-century, with most the Southeast having ATs similar to that of present-day southern Florida (i.e., a tropical climate). High ozone concentrations should continue to occur during future heat events. Large urban areas are expected to be the most affected by the future warming, resulting from intensifying and expanding urban heat islands, a large increase in heat-vulnerable populations, and climate conditions that will be highly suitable for tropical-disease transmission by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. This nexus of vulnerability creates the potential for heat-related morbidity and mortality, as well as the appearance of disease not previously seen in the region. These effects can be attenuated by policies that reduce urban heat (e.g., cool roofs and green roofs) and that improve infrastructure (e.g. emergency services, conditioned space).

Detecting the impact of temperature on transmission of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya using mechanistic models

Recent epidemics of Zika, dengue, and chikungunya have heightened the need to understand the seasonal and geographic range of transmission by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. We use mechanistic transmission models to derive predictions for how the probability and magnitude of transmission for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue change with mean temperature, and we show that these predictions are well matched by human case data. Across all three viruses, models and human case data both show that transmission occurs between 18-34°C with maximal transmission occurring in a range from 26-29°C. Controlling for population size and two socioeconomic factors, temperature-dependent transmission based on our mechanistic model is an important predictor of human transmission occurrence and incidence. Risk maps indicate that tropical and subtropical regions are suitable for extended seasonal or year-round transmission, but transmission in temperate areas is limited to at most three months per year even if vectors are present. Such brief transmission windows limit the likelihood of major epidemics following disease introduction in temperate zones.

Egg Hatching and Survival of Immature Stages of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Under Natural Temperature Conditions During the Cold Season in Buenos Aires, Argentina

In temperate regions, the seasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) is mainly influenced by temperature. It is assumed that, during the winter season, the population remains as eggs and that the development and population growth of surviving eggs begin during the following spring. The aim of the current study was to assess egg hatching of Ae. aegypti during the winter in Buenos Aires city (Argentina), and analyze the survival of immature stages. The experiments consisted of immersing eggs and studying the development of immature stages of cohorts from June and September under natural temperature conditions. The proportion of hatched eggs was compared between weeks of immersion and related to environmental variables. Survival was compared among cohorts and the development rate was related to the mean temperature during development. The results showed that, with few exceptions, egg hatching was over 45% during the winter period. The proportion of hatched eggs was positively associated with immersion temperature, pre-immersion temperature and photoperiod. The immature stages completed the development during the cold season, with a trend toward increased survival of late-hatching cohorts. Survival was 30% at 13.2 °C and above 90% at 20 °C, whereas the development time at low temperatures was 49.4 d at 13.2 °C and 17.7 d at 20 °C. The high hatching and survival compared with other studies suggest that the local population might be adapting to winter conditions. The anticipated emergence of adults would be adaptive if they are able to reproduce successfully in the early spring.

WHATCH'EM: A Weather-Driven Energy Balance Model for Determining Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats for Aedes aegypti

The mosquito virus vector Aedes (Ae.) aegypti exploits a wide range of containers as sites for egg laying and development of the immature life stages, yet the approaches for modeling meteorologically sensitive container water dynamics have been limited. This study introduces the Water Height and Temperature in Container Habitats Energy Model (WHATCH'EM), a state-of-the-science, physically based energy balance model of water height and temperature in containers that may serve as development sites for mosquitoes. The authors employ WHATCH'EM to model container water dynamics in three cities along a climatic gradient in México ranging from sea level, where Ae. aegypti is highly abundant, to ~2100 m, where Ae. aegypti is rarely found. When compared with measurements from a 1-month field experiment in two of these cities during summer 2013, WHATCH'EM realistically simulates the daily mean and range of water temperature for a variety of containers. To examine container dynamics for an entire season, WHATCH'EM is also driven with field-derived meteorological data from May to September 2011 and evaluated for three commonly encountered container types. WHATCH'EM simulates the highly nonlinear manner in which air temperature, humidity, rainfall, clouds, and container characteristics (shape, size, and color) determine water temperature and height. Sunlight exposure, modulated by clouds and shading from nearby objects, plays a first-order role. In general, simulated water temperatures are higher for containers that are larger, darker, and receive more sunlight. WHATCH'EM simulations will be helpful in understanding the limiting meteorological and container-related factors for proliferation of Ae. aegypti and may be useful for informing weather-driven early warning systems for viruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti.

Climate Change Influences Potential Distribution of Infected Aedes aegypti Co-Occurrence with Dengue Epidemics Risk Areas in Tanzania

Background

Dengue is the second most important vector-borne disease of humans globally after malaria. Incidence of dengue infections has dramatically increased recently, potentially due to changing climate. Climate projections models predict increases in average annual temperature, precipitation and extreme events in the future. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of changing climate on distribution of dengue vectors in relation to epidemic risk areas in Tanzania.

Methods/Findings

We used ecological niche models that incorporated presence-only infected Aedes aegypti data co-occurrence with dengue virus to estimate potential distribution of epidemic risk areas. Model input data on infected Ae. aegypti was collected during the May to June 2014 epidemic in Dar es Salaam. Bioclimatic predictors for current and future projections were also used as model inputs. Model predictions indicated that habitat suitability for infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue virus in current scenarios is highly localized in the coastal areas, including Dar es Salaam, Pwani, Morogoro, Tanga and Zanzibar. Models indicate that areas of Kigoma, Ruvuma, Lindi, and those around Lake Victoria are also at risk. Projecting to 2020, we show that risk emerges in Mara, Arusha, Kagera and Manyara regions, but disappears in parts of Morogoro, Ruvuma and near Lake Nyasa. In 2050 climate scenario, the predicted habitat suitability of infected Ae. aegypti co-occurrence with dengue shifted towards the central and north-eastern parts with intensification in areas around all major lakes. Generally, model findings indicated that the coastal regions would remain at high risk for dengue epidemic through 2050.

Conclusion/Significance

Models incorporating climate change scenarios to predict emerging risk areas for dengue epidemics in Tanzania show that the anticipated risk is immense and results help guiding public health policy decisions on surveillance and control of dengue epidemics. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt control and prevention strategies.

Reported Distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae)

Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.) and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) transmit arboviruses that are increasing threats to human health in the Americas, particularly dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Epidemics of the associated arboviral diseases have been limited to South and Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean in the Western Hemisphere, with only minor localized outbreaks in the United States. Nevertheless, accurate and up-to-date information for the geographical ranges of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States is urgently needed to guide surveillance and enhance control capacity for these mosquitoes. We compiled county records for presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States from 1995-2016, presented here in map format. Records were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET database, VectorMap, the published literature, and a survey of mosquito control agencies, university researchers, and state and local health departments. Between January 1995 and March 2016, 183 counties from 26 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. aegypti, and 1,241 counties from 40 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. albopictus. During the same time period, Ae. aegypti was collected in 3 or more years from 94 counties from 14 states and the District of Columbia, and Ae. albopictus was collected during 3 or more years from 514 counties in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Our findings underscore the need for systematic surveillance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States and delineate areas with risk for the transmission of these introduced arboviruses.

A Sequence of Flushing and Drying of Breeding Habitats of Aedes aegypti (L.) Prior to the Low Dengue Season in Singapore

In dengue-endemic areas, transmission shows both a seasonal and interannual variability. To investigate how rainfall impacts dengue seasonality in Singapore, we carried out a longitudinal survey in the Geylang neighborhood from August 2014 to August 2015. The survey comprised of twice-weekly random inspections to outdoor breeding habitats and continuous monitoring for positive ones. In addition, observations of rainstorms were collected. Out of 6824 inspected habitats, 67 contained Aedes aegypti, 11 contained Aedes albopictus and 24 contained Culex spp. The main outdoors habitat of Aedes aegypti was storm drains (54/67). We found that 80% of breeding sites in drains (43/54) were lost after intense rainstorms related to the wet phase of the Northeast monsoon (NE) between November 2014 and early January 2015. Subsequently, 95% (41/43) of these flushed drains had dried out during the dry phase of the NE in late January-February 2015. A return in the outdoor breeding of Aedes aegypti was observed after the onset of Southwest monsoon (SW) between May and August 2015. There was also a reduction in productivity of breeding habitats for larvae and pupae after the onset of the NE. In wet equatorial regions like Singapore, rainfall varies with the monsoons. A monsoon-driven sequence of flushing and drying shapes the outdoor seasonal abundance of Aedes aegypti. This finding can be used to optimize vector control strategies and better understand dengue in the context of climate change.

Effects of temperature on the life cycle, expansion, and dispersion of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in three cities in Paraiba, Brazil

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue and is common throughout tropical and subtropical regions. Its distribution is modulated by environmental factors, such as temperature. This study aimed to evaluate the influence of temperature on the life cycle and expansion of Ae. aegypti populations in the cities of Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos. Samples of Ae. aegypti were collected in the three cities and raised in the laboratory. We assessed the life cycles of the three Ae. aegypti populations under six constant temperatures (16, 22, 28, 33, 36, and 39°C), selected on the basis of historical temperature tendencies of each city. We also used existing climate data to calculate projected temperature increases for all three areas. Our results suggest that Campina Grande, João Pessoa, and Patos will experience, respectively, maximum temperature increases of 0.030°C/year, 0.069°C/year, and 0.061°C/year, and minimum temperature increases of 0.019°C/year, -0.047°C/year, and -0.086°C/year. These projected increases will result in temperatures favorable to the Ae. aegypti life cycle, causing rapid population growth. Therefore, Ae. aegypti populations are likely to expand in the mesoregions represented by these cities.

Effects of Climate and Climate Change on Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases: Ticks Are Different

There has been considerable debate as to whether global risk from vector-borne diseases will be impacted by climate change. This has focussed on important mosquito-borne diseases that are transmitted by the vectors from infected to uninfected humans. However, this debate has mostly ignored the biological diversity of vectors and vector-borne diseases. Here, we review how climate and climate change may impact those most divergent of arthropod disease vector groups: multivoltine insects and hard-bodied (ixodid) ticks. We contrast features of the life cycles and behaviour of these arthropods, and how weather, climate, and climate change may have very different impacts on the spatiotemporal occurrence and abundance of vectors, and the pathogens they transmit.

The Influence of Ambient Temperature on the Susceptibility of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) to the Pyrethroid Insecticide Permethrin

Insecticides are the most common strategy used for the management of mosquitoes. Changes in ambient temperature can alter the toxicity of insecticides to ectothermic organisms. Studies show organophosphate insecticides exhibit a positive correlation between ambient temperature and mortality for many insect species, and carbamate insecticides exhibit a slightly negative correlation between ambient temperature and mortality. Pyrethroid insecticides exhibit a distinctly negative correlation between increasing ambient temperature and mortality for insects. However, this relationship has not been systematically studied for adult mosquitoes. Therefore, we examined the influence of temperature on the susceptibility of adult Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) when exposed to permethrin. The median lethal concentration, LC50, was estimated for adult Ae. aegypti when exposed to eight concentrations of permethrin (ranging from 0.06–0.58 ng/cm2) at each of the following temperatures—16, 23, 26, 30, 32, and 34C—for 24 h in bottle assays. The estimated LC50 for each temperature was 0.26, 0.36, 0.36, 0.45, 0.27, and 0.31 ng/cm2, respectively. Results indicated a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 16 to 30C, a positive correlation between temperature and mortality from 30 to 32C, and a negative correlation between temperature and mortality from 32 to 34C. If mosquito populations are expanding in space and time because of increased ambient temperatures and cannot be managed as effectively with pyrethroids, the spread of mosquito-borne diseases may pose considerable additional risk to public health.

Meteorologically Driven Simulations of Dengue Epidemics in San Juan, PR

Meteorological factors influence dengue virus ecology by modulating vector mosquito population dynamics, viral replication, and transmission. Dynamic modeling techniques can be used to examine how interactions among meteorological variables, vectors and the dengue virus influence transmission. We developed a dengue fever simulation model by coupling a dynamic simulation model for Aedes aegypti, the primary mosquito vector for dengue, with a basic epidemiological Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we simulated dengue transmission during the period of 2010-2013 in San Juan, PR, where dengue fever is endemic. The results of 9600 simulations using varied model parameters were evaluated by statistical comparison (r2) with surveillance data of dengue cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To identify the most influential parameters associated with dengue virus transmission for each period the top 1% of best-fit model simulations were retained and compared. Using the top simulations, dengue cases were simulated well for 2010 (r2 = 0.90, p = 0.03), 2011 (r2 = 0.83, p = 0.05), and 2012 (r2 = 0.94, p = 0.01); however, simulations were weaker for 2013 (r2 = 0.25, p = 0.25) and the entire four-year period (r2 = 0.44, p = 0.002). Analysis of parameter values from retained simulations revealed that rain dependent container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the wetter 2010 and 2011 years, while human managed (i.e. manually filled) container habitats were more prevalent in best-fitting simulations during the drier 2012 and 2013 years. The simulations further indicate that rainfall strongly modulates the timing of dengue (e.g., epidemics occurred earlier during rainy years) while temperature modulates the annual number of dengue fever cases. Our results suggest that meteorological factors have a time-variable influence on dengue transmission relative to other important environmental and human factors.

Risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue vectors (Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus), their altitudinal distribution and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal

Background

The presence of the recently introduced primary dengue virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti in Nepal, in association with the likely indigenous secondary vector Aedes albopictus, raises public health concerns. Chikungunya fever cases have also been reported in Nepal, and the virus causing this disease is also transmitted by these mosquito species. Here we report the results of a study on the risk factors for the presence of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors, their elevational ceiling of distribution, and climatic determinants of their abundance in central Nepal.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We collected immature stages of mosquitoes during six monthly cross-sectional surveys covering six administrative districts along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal that extended from Birgunj (80 m above sea level [asl]) to Dhunche (highest altitude sampled: 2,100 m asl). The dengue vectors Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were commonly found up to 1,350 m asl in Kathmandu valley and were present but rarely found from 1,750 to 2,100 m asl in Dhunche. The lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was commonly found throughout the study transect. Physiographic region, month of collection, collection station and container type were significant predictors of the occurrence and co-occurrence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity were significant predictors of chikungunya and dengue virus vectors abundance.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that chikungunya and dengue virus vectors have already established their populations up to the High Mountain region of Nepal and that this may be attributed to the environmental and climate change that has been observed over the decades in Nepal. The rapid expansion of the distribution of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region, previously considered to be non-endemic for dengue and chikungunya fever, calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.

The local transmission of dengue fever was confirmed in five lowland urban areas in 2006, along with the first report of the primary vectors of dengue virus, Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Subsequent studies revealed a wide distribution of Ae. aegypti in 2009, and the first locally acquired dengue fever case in Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal, during an epidemic in 2010. These records of a rapid expansion of dengue viruses and their primary vector, Ae. aegypti, in the Middle Mountain region and the more pronounced warming of mountains prompted us to investigate the altitudinal distribution and determinants of the abundance of dengue virus vectors in central Nepal. The first local transmission of chikungunya virus was recently reported from central Nepal in 2013. In this study, we document the distribution of Ae. aegypti and the secondary vector of dengue viruses, Aedes albopictus, from the lowlands (80 m) up to 2,100 m altitude in Dhunche, Rasuwa district. The climatic variables rainfall, temperature and relative humidity were significant predictors of their abundances. The distribution extension of these important disease vectors in the High Mountain region calls for urgent actions to protect the health of local people and tourists travelling in the central Himalayas.

Density of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus and its association with number of residents and meteorological variables in the home environment of dengue endemic area, São Paulo, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Measure the populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus adults according to sex and location inside or outside the residence, estimate Ae. aegypti female density per house and per resident, and test the association with abiotic factors.

METHODS

Adult mosquitoes were collected monthly with a hand net and portable electric catcher in the peridomiciliary and intradomiciliary premises of residences in an urban area with ongoing dengue transmission in the municipality of São Sebastião, Brazil, from February 2011 to February 2012.

RESULTS

Of the 1,320 specimens collected, 1,311 were Ae. aegypti, and nine were Ae. albopictus. A total of 653 male and 658 female of Ae. aegypti were recorded, of which 80% were intradomiciliary. The mean density of Ae. aegypti adult females was 1.60 females/house and 0.42 females/resident. There was an association between the number of females and the number of residents in both intradomiciliary and peridomiciliary premises (r(2) = 0.92; p < 0.001 and r(2) = 0.68; p < 0.001, respectively). There was an association between the number of females and the mean and total rainfall; the correlation was better in peridomiciliary premises (p = 0.00; r(2) = 77%) than intradomiciliary premises in both cases (p = 0.01; r(2) = 48%). Minimum temperature was associated in both environments, exhibiting the same coefficient of determination (p = 0.02; r(2) = 40%). The low frequency of Ae. albopictus (seven females and two males) did not allow for detailed evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Ae. aegypti is well established within the urban area studied, and the frequency of isolation is higher inside the houses. Female density was directly proportional to the number of residents in the houses. Our data show that human population density positively affects the number of Ae. aegypti females within the residence. Meteorological variables also affected mosquito populations. These data indicate a high probability of human-vector contact, increasing the possible transmission and spread of the DEN virus. Entomological indicators of adult females revealed important information complimenting what was obtained with traditional Stegomyia indices. This information should be a part of an interconnected data set for evaluating and controlling the vector.

Chikungunya virus-vector interactions

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes chikungunya fever, a severe, debilitating disease that often produces chronic arthralgia. Since 2004, CHIKV has emerged in Africa, Indian Ocean islands, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, causing millions of human infections. Central to understanding CHIKV emergence is knowledge of the natural ecology of transmission and vector infection dynamics. This review presents current understanding of CHIKV infection dynamics in mosquito vectors and its relationship to human disease emergence. The following topics are reviewed: CHIKV infection and vector life history traits including transmission cycles, genetic origins, distribution, emergence and spread, dispersal, vector competence, vector immunity and microbial interactions, and co-infection by CHIKV and other arboviruses. The genetics of vector susceptibility and host range changes, population heterogeneity and selection for the fittest viral genomes, dual host cycling and its impact on CHIKV adaptation, viral bottlenecks and intrahost diversity, and adaptive constraints on CHIKV evolution are also discussed. The potential for CHIKV re-emergence and expansion into new areas and prospects for prevention via vector control are also briefly reviewed.