Incidence of plague associated with increased winter-spring precipitation in New Mexico

Flea-Associated Bacterial Communities across an Environmental Transect in a Plague-Endemic Region of Uganda

The vast majority of human plague cases currently occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The primary route of transmission of Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is via flea bites. Non-pathogenic flea-associated bacteria may interact with Y. pestis within fleas and it is important to understand what factors govern flea-associated bacterial assemblages. Six species of fleas were collected from nine rodent species from ten Ugandan villages between October 2010 and March 2011. A total of 660,345 16S rRNA gene DNA sequences were used to characterize bacterial communities of 332 individual fleas. The DNA sequences were binned into 421 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) based on 97% sequence similarity. We used beta diversity metrics to assess the effects of flea species, flea sex, rodent host species, site (i.e. village), collection date, elevation, mean annual precipitation, average monthly precipitation, and average monthly temperature on bacterial community structure. Flea species had the greatest effect on bacterial community structure with each flea species harboring unique bacterial lineages. The site (i.e. village), rodent host, flea sex, elevation, precipitation, and temperature also significantly affected bacterial community composition. Some bacterial lineages were widespread among flea species (e.g. Bartonella spp. and Wolbachia spp.), but each flea species also harbored unique bacterial lineages. Some of these lineages are not closely related to known bacterial diversity and likely represent newly discovered lineages of insect symbionts. Our finding that flea species has the greatest effect on bacterial community composition may help future investigations between Yersinia pestis and non-pathogenic flea-associated bacteria. Characterizing bacterial communities of fleas during a plague epizootic event in the future would be helpful.

Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms Reveal Spatial Diversity Among Clones of Yersinia pestis During Plague Outbreaks in Colorado and the Western United States

BACKGROUND

In western North America, plague epizootics caused by Yersinia pestis appear to sweep across landscapes, primarily infecting and killing rodents, especially ground squirrels and prairie dogs. During these epizootics, the risk of Y. pestis transmission to humans is highest. While empirical models that include climatic conditions and densities of rodent hosts and fleas can predict when epizootics are triggered, bacterial transmission patterns across landscapes, and the scale at which Y. pestis is maintained in nature during inter-epizootic periods, are poorly defined. Elucidating the spatial extent of Y. pestis clones during epizootics can determine whether bacteria are propagated across landscapes or arise independently from local inter-epizootic maintenance reservoirs.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We used DNA microarray technology to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 34 Y. pestis isolates collected in the western United States from 1980 to 2006, 21 of which were collected during plague epizootics in Colorado. Phylogenetic comparisons were used to elucidate the hypothesized spread of Y. pestis between the mountainous Front Range and the eastern plains of northern Colorado during epizootics. Isolates collected from across the western United States were included for regional comparisons.

RESULTS

By identifying SNPs that mark individual clones, our results strongly suggest that Y. pestis is maintained locally and that widespread epizootic activity is caused by multiple clones arising independently at small geographic scales. This is in contrast to propagation of individual clones being transported widely across landscapes. Regionally, our data are consistent with the notion that Y. pestis diversifies at relatively local scales following long-range translocation events. We recommend that surveillance and prediction by public health and wildlife management professionals focus more on models of local or regional weather patterns and ecological factors that may increase risk of widespread epizootics, rather than predicting or attempting to explain epizootics on the basis of movement of host species that may transport plague.

Effects of climate change on the persistence and dispersal of foodborne bacterial pathogens in the outdoor environment: A review

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Over the coming century, warming trends such as increased duration and frequency of heat waves and hot extremes are expected in some areas, as well as increased intensity of some storm systems. Climate-induced trends will impact the persistence and dispersal of foodborne pathogens in myriad ways, especially for environmentally ubiquitous and/or zoonotic microorganisms. Animal hosts of foodborne pathogens are also expected to be impacted by climate change through the introduction of increased physiological stress and, in some cases, altered geographic ranges and seasonality. This review article examines the effects of climatic factors, such as temperature, rainfall, drought and wind, on the environmental dispersal and persistence of bacterial foodborne pathogens, namely, Bacillus cereus, Brucella, Campylobacter, Clostridium, Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Staphylococcus aureus, Vibrio and Yersinia enterocolitica. These relationships are then used to predict how future climatic changes will impact the activity of these microorganisms in the outdoor environment and associated food safety issues. The development of predictive models that quantify these complex relationships will also be discussed, as well as the potential impacts of climate change on transmission of foodborne disease from animal hosts.

Seasonal fluctuations of small mammal and flea communities in a Ugandan plague focus: evidence to implicate Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp. as key hosts in Yersinia pestis transmission

Background

The distribution of human plague risk is strongly associated with rainfall in the tropical plague foci of East Africa, but little is known about how the plague bacterium is maintained during periods between outbreaks or whether environmental drivers trigger these outbreaks. We collected small mammals and fleas over a two year period in the West Nile region of Uganda to examine how the ecological community varies seasonally in a region with areas of both high and low risk of human plague cases.

Methods

Seasonal changes in the small mammal and flea communities were examined along an elevation gradient to determine whether small mammal and flea populations exhibit differences in their response to seasonal fluctuations in precipitation, temperature, and crop harvests in areas within (above 1300 m) and outside (below 1300 m) of a model-defined plague focus.

Results

The abundance of two potential enzootic host species (Arvicanthis niloticus and Crocidura spp.) increased during the plague season within the plague focus, but did not show the same increase at lower elevations outside this focus. In contrast, the abundance of the domestic rat population (Rattus rattus) did not show significant seasonal fluctuations regardless of locality. Arvicanthis niloticus abundance was negatively associated with monthly precipitation at a six month lag and positively associated with current monthly temperatures, and Crocidura spp. abundance was positively associated with precipitation at a three month lag and negatively associated with current monthly temperatures. The abundance of A. niloticus and Crocidura spp. were both positively correlated with the harvest of millet and maize.

Conclusions

The association between the abundance of several small mammal species and rainfall is consistent with previous models of the timing of human plague cases in relation to precipitation in the West Nile region. The seasonal increase in the abundance of key potential host species within the plague focus, but not outside of this area, suggests that changes in small mammal abundance may create favorable conditions for epizootic transmission of Y. pestis which ultimately may increase risk of human cases in this region.

A non-stationary relationship between global climate phenomena and human plague incidence in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar.

Mapping risk of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

BACKGROUND

Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau of China is known to be the plague endemic region where marmot (Marmota himalayana) is the primary host. Human plague cases are relatively low incidence but high mortality, which presents unique surveillance and public health challenges, because early detection through surveillance may not always be feasible and infrequent clinical cases may be misdiagnosed.

METHODS

Based on plague surveillance data and environmental variables, Maxent was applied to model the presence probability of plague host. 75% occurrence points were randomly selected for training model, and the rest 25% points were used for model test and validation. Maxent model performance was measured as test gain and test AUC. The optimal probability cut-off value was chosen by maximizing training sensitivity and specificity simultaneously.

RESULTS

We used field surveillance data in an ecological niche modeling (ENM) framework to depict spatial distribution of natural foci of plague in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Most human-inhabited areas at risk of exposure to enzootic plague are distributed in the east and south of the Plateau. Elevation, temperature of land surface and normalized difference vegetation index play a large part in determining the distribution of the enzootic plague.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided a more detailed view of spatial pattern of enzootic plague and human-inhabited areas at risk of plague. The maps could help public health authorities decide where to perform plague surveillance and take preventive measures in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems.

Where does human plague still persist in Latin America?

BACKGROUND

Plague is an epidemic-prone disease with a potential impact on public health, international trade, and tourism. It may emerge and re-emerge after decades of epidemiological silence. Today, in Latin America, human cases and foci are present in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru.

AIMS

The objective of this study is to identify where cases of human plague still persist in Latin America and map areas that may be at risk for emergence or re-emergence. This analysis will provide evidence-based information for countries to prioritize areas for intervention.

METHODS

Evidence of the presence of plague was demonstrated using existing official information from WHO, PAHO, and Ministries of Health. A geo-referenced database was created to map the historical presence of plague by country between the first registered case in 1899 and 2012. Areas where plague still persists were mapped at the second level of the political/administrative divisions (counties). Selected demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental variables were described.

RESULTS

Plague was found to be present for one or more years in 14 out of 25 countries in Latin America (1899-2012). Foci persisted in six countries, two of which have no report of current cases. There is evidence that human cases of plague still persist in 18 counties. Demographic and poverty patterns were observed in 11/18 counties. Four types of biomes are most commonly found. 12/18 have an average altitude higher than 1,300 meters above sea level.

DISCUSSION

Even though human plague cases are very localized, the risk is present, and unexpected outbreaks could occur. Countries need to make the final push to eliminate plague as a public health problem for the Americas. A further disaggregated risk evaluation is recommended, including identification of foci and possible interactions among areas where plague could emerge or re-emerge. A closer geographical approach and environmental characterization are suggested.

Estimating hantavirus risk in southern Argentina: a GIS-based approach combining human cases and host distribution

We use a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to examine the potential distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) caused by Andes virus (ANDV) in southern Argentina and, more precisely, define and estimate the area with the highest infection probability for humans, through the combination with the distribution map for the competent rodent host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus). Sites with confirmed cases of HPS in the period 1995–2009 were mostly concentrated in a narrow strip (~90 km × 900 km) along the Andes range from northern Neuquén to central Chubut province. This area is characterized by high mean annual precipitation (~1,000 mm on average), but dry summers (less than 100 mm), very low percentages of bare soil (~10% on average) and low temperatures in the coldest month (minimum average temperature −1.5 °C), as compared to the HPS-free areas, features that coincide with sub-Antarctic forests and shrublands (especially those dominated by the invasive plant Rosa rubiginosa), where rodent host abundances and ANDV prevalences are known to be the highest. Through the combination of predictive distribution maps of the reservoir host and disease cases, we found that the area with the highest probability for HPS to occur overlaps only 28% with the most suitable habitat for O. longicaudatus. With this approach, we made a step forward in the understanding of the risk factors that need to be considered in the forecasting and mapping of risk at the regional/national scale. We propose the implementation and use of thematic maps, such as the one built here, as a basic tool allowing public health authorities to focus surveillance efforts and normally scarce resources for prevention and control actions in vast areas like southern Argentina.

Relationship between increase rate of human plague in China and global climate index as revealed by cross-spectral and cross-wavelet analyses

Plague has caused the death of hundreds of millions of people throughout the human history. Today this disease is again re-emerging and hence is again becoming an increasing threat to human health in several parts of the world. However, impacts of global climate variation (e.g. El Nino and Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and global warming on plagues are largely unknown. Using cross-spectral analysis and cross-wavelet analysis, we have analyzed the relationship between increase rate of human plague in China during 1871-2003 and the following climate factors (as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], Sea Surface Temperature of east Pacific equator [SST] and air Temperature of the Northern Hemisphere [NHT]). We found in the frequency domain that increase rate of human plague was closely associated with SOI and SST. Cross-spectral analysis reveals that significant coherencies between increase rate of human plague and ENSO were found over short periods (2-3 years), medium periods (6-7 years) and long periods (11-12 years, 30-40 years). Cross-wavelet analysis reveals that increase rate of human plague oscillates in phase with SOI, but in anti-phase with SST over periods of 2-4 years and approximately 8 years (6-10 years). These results indicate that ENSO-driven climate variation may be important for occurrences of human plague in China. However, there is a need for a further analysis of the underlying mechanism between human plague in China and ENSO.

Effects of low-temperature flea maintenance on the transmission of Yersinia pestis by Oropsylla montana

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is primarily a rodent-associated, flea-borne zoonosis maintained in sylvatic foci throughout western North America. Transmission to humans is mediated most commonly by the flea vector Oropsylla montana and occurs predominantly in the southwestern United States. With few exceptions, previous studies showed O. montana to be an inefficient vector at transmitting Y. pestis at ambient temperatures, particularly when such fleas were fed on susceptible hosts more than a few days after ingesting an infectious blood meal. We examined whether holding fleas at subambient temperatures affected the transmissibility of Y. pestis by this vector. An infectious blood meal containing a virulent Y. pestis strain (CO96-3188) was given to colony-reared O. montana fleas. Potentially infected fleas were maintained at different temperatures (6°C, 10°C, 15°C, or 23°C). Transmission efficiencies were tested by allowing up to 15 infectious fleas to feed on each of 7 naïve CD-1 mice on days 1-4, 7, 10, 14, 17, and 21 postinfection (p.i.). Mice were monitored for signs of infection for 21 days after exposure to infectious fleas. Fleas held at 6°C, 10°C, and 15°C were able to effectively transmit at every time point p.i. The percentage of transmission to naïve mice by fleas maintained at low temperatures (46.0% at 6°C, 71.4% at 10°C, 66.7% at 15°C) was higher than for fleas maintained at 23°C (25.4%) and indicates that O. montana fleas efficiently transmit Y. pestis at low temperatures. Moreover, pooled percent per flea transmission efficiencies for flea cohorts maintained at temperatures of 10°C and 15°C (8.67% and 7.87%, respectively) showed a statistically significant difference in the pooled percent per flea transmission efficiency from fleas maintained at 23°C (1.94%). This is the first comprehensive study to demonstrate efficient transmission of Y. pestis by O. montana fleas maintained at temperatures as low as 6°C. Our findings further contribute to the understanding of plague ecology in temperate climates by providing support for the hypothesis that Y. pestis is able to overwinter within the flea gut and potentially cause infection during the following transmission season. The findings also might hold implications for explaining the focality of plague in tropical regions.

Fleas infesting pets in the era of emerging extra-intestinal nematodes

Modifications in climatic conditions, movements of hosts and goods, changes in animal phenology and human behaviour and increase of wildlife, are presently concurring in the geographic spread of vectors and cardio-respiratory nematodes, e.g. Dirofilaria immitis, Angiostrongylus vasorum, Aelurostrongylus abstrusus and Capillaria aerophila. All these factors may also influence dispersion and clinical significance of fleas, thus posing relevant challenges in those regions where other parasites are emerging at the same time. Ctenocephalides felis, Ctenocephalides canis and Pulex irritans cause discomfort, nuisance, allergic reactions, anaemia, and may transmit several pathogens, some of them are of importance for public health. The present article reviews the importance of fleas in small animal practice and their sanitary relevance for dogs, cats and humans, and discusses current control methods in the present era of emerging extra-intestinal nematodes, towards a possible changing perspective for controlling key parasites affecting companion animals.

Potential changes in disease patterns and pharmaceutical use in response to climate change

As climate change alters environmental conditions, the incidence and global patterns of human diseases are changing. These modifications to disease profiles and the effects upon human pharmaceutical usage are discussed. Climate-related environmental changes are associated with a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases already prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, cardiovascular disease and mental illness, leading to greater use of associated heavily used Western medications. Sufferers of respiratory diseases may exhibit exacerbated symptoms due to altered environmental conditions (e.g., pollen). Respiratory, water-borne, and food-borne toxicants and infections, including those that are vector borne, may become more common in Western countries, central and eastern Asia, and across North America. As new disease threats emerge, substantially higher pharmaceutical use appears inevitable, especially of pharmaceuticals not commonly employed at present (e.g., antiprotozoals). The use of medications for the treatment of general symptoms (e.g., analgesics) will also rise. These developments need to be viewed in the context of other major environmental changes (e.g., industrial chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, reduced water and food security) as well as marked shifts in human demographics, including aging of the population. To identify, prevent, mitigate, and adapt to potential threats, one needs to be aware of the major factors underlying changes in the use of pharmaceuticals and their subsequent release, deliberately or unintentionally, into the environment. This review explores the likely consequences of climate change upon the use of medical pharmaceuticals in the Northern Hemisphere.

Improvement of disease prediction and modeling through the use of meteorological ensembles: human plague in Uganda

Climate and weather influence the occurrence, distribution, and incidence of infectious diseases, particularly those caused by vector-borne or zoonotic pathogens. Thus, models based on meteorological data have helped predict when and where human cases are most likely to occur. Such knowledge aids in targeting limited prevention and control resources and may ultimately reduce the burden of diseases. Paradoxically, localities where such models could yield the greatest benefits, such as tropical regions where morbidity and mortality caused by vector-borne diseases is greatest, often lack high-quality in situ local meteorological data. Satellite- and model-based gridded climate datasets can be used to approximate local meteorological conditions in data-sparse regions, however their accuracy varies. Here we investigate how the selection of a particular dataset can influence the outcomes of disease forecasting models. Our model system focuses on plague (Yersinia pestis infection) in the West Nile region of Uganda. The majority of recent human cases have been reported from East Africa and Madagascar, where meteorological observations are sparse and topography yields complex weather patterns. Using an ensemble of meteorological datasets and model-averaging techniques we find that the number of suspected cases in the West Nile region was negatively associated with dry season rainfall (December-February) and positively with rainfall prior to the plague season. We demonstrate that ensembles of available meteorological datasets can be used to quantify climatic uncertainty and minimize its impacts on infectious disease models. These methods are particularly valuable in regions with sparse observational networks and high morbidity and mortality from vector-borne diseases.

Prediction of Peromyscus maniculatus (deer mouse) population dynamics in Montana, USA, using satellite-driven vegetation productivity and weather data

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000-06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated.

Climate predictors of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda

East Africa has been identified as a region where vector-borne and zoonotic diseases are most likely to emerge or re-emerge and where morbidity and mortality from these diseases is significant. Understanding when and where humans are most likely to be exposed to vector-borne and zoonotic disease agents in this region can aid in targeting limited prevention and control resources. Often, spatial and temporal distributions of vectors and vector-borne disease agents are predictable based on climatic variables. However, because of coarse meteorological observation networks, appropriately scaled and accurate climate data are often lacking for Africa. Here, we use a recently developed 10-year gridded meteorological dataset from the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model to identify climatic variables predictive of the spatial distribution of human plague cases in the West Nile region of Uganda. Our logistic regression model revealed that within high elevation sites (above 1,300 m), plague risk was positively associated with rainfall during the months of February, October, and November and negatively associated with rainfall during the month of June. These findings suggest that areas that receive increased but not continuous rainfall provide ecologically conducive conditions for Yersinia pestis transmission in this region. This study serves as a foundation for similar modeling efforts of other vector-borne and zoonotic disease in regions with sparse observational meteorologic networks.

Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival

Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability--even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (i) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest. (ii) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences. (iii) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption. (iv) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)--except when extreme phases occur. (v) The drought-famine-starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene's natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change.

Plague and climate: scales matter

Plague is enzootic in wildlife populations of small mammals in central and eastern Asia, Africa, South and North America, and has been recognized recently as a reemerging threat to humans. Its causative agent Yersinia pestis relies on wild rodent hosts and flea vectors for its maintenance in nature. Climate influences all three components (i.e., bacteria, vectors, and hosts) of the plague system and is a likely factor to explain some of plague's variability from small and regional to large scales. Here, we review effects of climate variables on plague hosts and vectors from individual or population scales to studies on the whole plague system at a large scale. Upscaled versions of small-scale processes are often invoked to explain plague variability in time and space at larger scales, presumably because similar scale-independent mechanisms underlie these relationships. This linearity assumption is discussed in the light of recent research that suggests some of its limitations.

Transmission of flea-borne zoonotic agents

Flea-borne zoonoses such as plague (Yersinia pestis) and murine typhus (Rickettsia typhi) caused significant numbers of human cases in the past and remain a public health concern. Other flea-borne human pathogens have emerged recently (e.g., Bartonella henselae, Rickettsia felis), and their mechanisms of transmission and impact on human health are not fully understood. Our review focuses on the ecology and epidemiology of the flea-borne bacterial zoonoses mentioned above with an emphasis on recent advancements in our understanding of how these organisms are transmitted by fleas, maintained in zoonotic cycles, and transmitted to humans. Emphasis is given to plague because of the considerable number of studies generated during the first decade of the twenty-first century that arose, in part, because of renewed interest in potential agents of bioterrorism, including Y. pestis.

Annual seroprevalence of Yersinia pestis in coyotes as predictors of interannual variation in reports of human plague cases in Arizona, United States

Although several health departments collect coyote blood samples for plague surveillance, the association between reported human cases and coyote seroprevalence rates remains anecdotal. Using data from an endemic region of the United States, we sought to quantify this association. From 1974 to 1998, about 2,276 coyote blood samples from four Arizona counties were tested for serological evidence of exposure to Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague. Using a titer threshold presumed to be indicative of recent infection (serum titers of ≥1:256), we found a statistically significant relationship between years with >17% sero-positive coyotes and years with two or more human cases reported. Moreover, when the annual coyote seroprevalence rates were dichotomized at 17%, 84% of the years were correctly classified using four biologically relevant meteorological variables in a linear regression. This is the first time a statistically significant temporal association between human plague cases and coyote seroprevalence rates has been shown. However, issues with data resolution and surveillance effort that potentially limit the public health utility of using coyote seroprevalence rates are discussed.

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.

Effects of temperature on early-phase transmission of Yersina pestis by the flea, Xenopsylla cheopis

Sharp declines in human and animal cases of plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis (Yersin), have been observed when outbreaks coincide with hot weather. Failure of biofilm production, or blockage, to occur in the flea, as temperatures reach 30 degrees C has been suggested as an explanation for these declines. Recent work demonstrating efficient flea transmission during the first few days after fleas have taken an infectious blood meal, in the absence of blockage (e.g., early-phase transmission), however, has called this hypothesis into question. To explore the potential effects of temperature on early-phase transmission, we infected colony-reared Xenopsylla cheopis (Rothchild) fleas with a wild-type strain of plague bacteria using an artificial feeding system, and held groups of fleas at 10, 23, 27, and 30 degrees C. Naive Swiss Webster mice were exposed to fleas from each of these temperatures on days 1-4 postinfection, and monitored for signs of infection for 21 d. Temperature did not significantly influence the rates of transmission observed for fleas held at 23, 27, and 30 degrees C. Estimated per flea transmission efficiencies for these higher temperatures ranged from 2.32 to 4.96% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-8.74). In contrast, no transmission was observed in mice challenged by fleas held at 10 degrees C (per flea transmission efficiency estimates, 0-1.68%). These results suggest that declines in human and animal cases during hot weather are not related to changes in the abilities of X. cheopis fleas to transmit Y. pestis infections during the early-phase period. By contrast, transmission may be delayed or inhibited at low temperatures, indicating that epizootic spread of Y. pestis by X. cheopis via early-phase transmission is unlikely during colder periods of the year.

Influence of satellite-derived rainfall patterns on plague occurrence in northeast Tanzania

Background

In the tropics, rainfall data are seldom accurately recorded, and are often discontinuous in time. In the scope of plague-research in northeast Tanzania, we adapted previous research to reconstruct rainfall patterns at a suitable resolution (1 km), based on time series of NDVI: more accurate satellite imagery was used, in the form of MODIS NDVI, and rainfall data were collected from the TRMM sensors instead of in situ data. First, we established a significant relationship between monthly rainfall and monthly composited MODIS NDVI. The established linear relationship was then used to reconstruct historic precipitation patterns over a mountainous area in northeastern Tanzania.

Results

We validated the resulting precipitation estimates with in situ rainfall time series of three meteorological stations located in the study area. Taking the region's topography into account, a correlation coefficient of 0.66 was obtained for two of the three meteorological stations. Our results suggest that the adapted strategy can be applied fruitfully to estimate rainfall variability and seasonality, despite the underestimation of overall rainfall rates. Based on this model, rainfall in previous years (1986) is modelled to obtain a dataset with which we can compare plague occurrence in the area. A positive correlation of 82% is obtained between high rainfall rates and plague incidence with a two month lag between rainfall and plague cases.

Conclusions

We conclude that the obtained results are satisfactory in support of the human plague research in which this study is embedded, and that this approach can be applied in other studies with similar goals.

Potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases: a review and proposed research plan

BACKGROUND

Because of complex interactions of climate variables at the levels of the pathogen, vector, and host, the potential influence of climate change on vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (VBZDs) is poorly understood and difficult to predict. Climate effects on the nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases are especially obscure and have received scant treatment.

OBJECTIVE

We described known and potential effects of climate change on VBZDs and proposed specific studies to increase our understanding of these effects. The nonvector-borne zoonotic diseases have received scant treatment and are emphasized in this paper.

DATA SOURCES AND SYNTHESIS

We used a review of the existing literature and extrapolations from observations of short-term climate variation to suggest potential impacts of climate change on VBZDs. Using public health priorities on climate change, published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we developed six specific goals for increasing understanding of the interaction between climate and VBZDs and for improving capacity for predicting climate change effects on incidence and distribution of VBZDs.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change may affect the incidence of VBZDs through its effect on four principal characteristics of host and vector populations that relate to pathogen transmission to humans: geographic distribution, population density, prevalence of infection by zoonotic pathogens, and the pathogen load in individual hosts and vectors. These mechanisms may interact with each other and with other factors such as anthropogenic disturbance to produce varying effects on pathogen transmission within host and vector populations and to humans. Because climate change effects on most VBZDs act through wildlife hosts and vectors, understanding these effects will require multidisciplinary teams to conduct and interpret ecosystem-based studies of VBZD pathogens in host and vector populations and to identify the hosts, vectors, and pathogens with the greatest potential to affect human populations under climate change scenarios.

Range-wide determinants of plague distribution in North America

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is established across western North America, and yet little is known of what determines the broad-scale dimensions of its overall range. We tested whether its North American distribution represents a composite of individual host-plague associations (the "Host Niche Hypothesis"), or whether mammal hosts become infected only at sites overlapping ecological conditions appropriate for plague transmission and maintenance (the "Plague Niche Hypothesis"). We took advantage of a novel data set summarizing plague records in wild mammals newly digitized from paper-based records at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop range-wide tests of ecological niche similarity between mammal host niches and plague-infected host niches. Results indicate that plague infections occur under circumstances distinct from the broader ecological distribution of hosts, and that plague-infected niches are similar among hosts; hence, evidence coincides with the predictions of the Plague Niche Hypothesis, and contrasts with those of the Host Niche Hypothesis. The "plague niche" is likely driven by ecological requirements of vector flea species.

Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability

Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.

A global perspective on hantavirus ecology, epidemiology, and disease

Hantaviruses are enzootic viruses that maintain persistent infections in their rodent hosts without apparent disease symptoms. The spillover of these viruses to humans can lead to one of two serious illnesses, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. In recent years, there has been an improved understanding of the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and natural history of these viruses following an increase in the number of outbreaks in the Americas. In this review, current concepts regarding the ecology of and disease associated with these serious human pathogens are presented. Priorities for future research suggest an integration of the ecology and evolution of these and other host-virus ecosystems through modeling and hypothesis-driven research with the risk of emergence, host switching/spillover, and disease transmission to humans.

Rodent and flea abundance fail to predict a plague epizootic in black-tailed prairie dogs

Small rodents are purported to be enzootic hosts of Yersinia pestis and may serve as sources of infection to prairie dogs or other epizootic hosts by direct or flea-mediated transmission. Recent research has shown that small rodent species composition and small rodent flea assemblages are influenced by the presence of prairie dogs, with higher relative abundance of both small rodents and fleas at prairie dog colony sites compared to grasslands without prairie dogs. However, it is unclear if increased rodent or flea abundance predisposes prairie dogs to infection with Y. pestis. We tracked rodent and flea occurrence for 3 years at a number of prairie dog colony sites in Boulder County, Colorado, before, during, and after a local plague epizootic to see if high rodent or flea abundance was associated with plague-affected colonies when compared to colonies that escaped infection. We found no difference in preepizootic rodent abundance or flea prevalence or abundance between plague-positive and plague-negative colonies. Further, we saw no significant before-plague/after-plague change in these metrics at either plague-positive or plague-negative sites. We did, however, find that small rodent species assemblages changed in the year following prairie dog die-offs at plague-affected colonies when compared to unaffected colonies. In light of previous research from this system that has shown that landscape features and proximity to recently plagued colonies are significant predictors of plague occurrence in prairie dogs, we suggest that landscape context is more important to local plague occurrence than are characteristics of rodent or flea species assemblages.

Assessing human risk of exposure to plague bacteria in northwestern Uganda based on remotely sensed predictors

Plague, a life-threatening flea-borne zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, has most commonly been reported from eastern Africa and Madagascar in recent decades. In these regions and elsewhere, prevention and control efforts are typically targeted at fine spatial scales, yet risk maps for the disease are often presented at coarse spatial resolutions that are of limited value in allocating scarce prevention and control resources. In our study, we sought to identify sub-village level remotely sensed correlates of elevated risk of human exposure to plague bacteria and to project the model across the plague-endemic West Nile region of Uganda and into neighboring regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Our model yielded an overall accuracy of 81%, with sensitivities and specificities of 89% and 71%, respectively. Risk was higher above 1,300 meters than below, and the remotely sensed covariates that were included in the model implied that localities that are wetter, with less vegetative growth and more bare soil during the dry month of January (when agricultural plots are typically fallow) pose an increased risk of plague case occurrence. Our results suggest that environmental and landscape features play a large part in classifying an area as ecologically conducive to plague activity. However, it is clear that future studies aimed at identifying behavioral and fine-scale ecological risk factors in the West Nile region are required to fully assess the risk of human exposure to Y. pestis.

Predicting potential risk areas of human plague for the Western Usambara Mountains, Lushoto District, Tanzania

A natural focus of plague exists in the Western Usambara Mountains of Tanzania. Despite intense research, questions remain as to why and how plague emerges repeatedly in the same suite of villages. We used human plague incidence data for 1986-2003 in an ecological-niche modeling framework to explore the geographic distribution and ecology of human plague. Our analyses indicate that plague occurrence is related directly to landscape-scale environmental features, yielding a predictive understanding of one set of environmental factors affecting plague transmission in East Africa. Although many environmental variables contribute significantly to these models, the most important are elevation and Enhanced Vegetation Index derivatives. Projections of these models across broader regions predict only 15.5% (under a majority-rule threshold) or 31,997 km(2) of East Africa as suitable for plague transmission, but they successfully anticipate most known foci in the region, making possible the development of a risk map of plague.

Climate change and threat of vector-borne diseases in India: are we prepared?

It is unequivocal that climate change is happening and is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes. India is endemic for six major vector-borne diseases (VBD) namely malaria, dengue, chikungunya, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and visceral leishmaniasis. Over the years, there has been reduction in the incidence of almost all the diseases except chikungunya which has re-emerged since 2005. The upcoming issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat and challenge for ongoing efforts to contain vector-borne diseases. There is greater awareness about the potential impacts of climate change on VBDs in India and research institutions and national authorities have initiated actions to assess the impacts. Studies undertaken in India on malaria in the context of climate change impact reveal that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2-3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 x 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for year 2050, it was found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states etc. Impact of climate change on dengue also reveals increase in transmission with 2 C rise in temperature in northern India. Re-emergence of kala-azar in northern parts of India and reappearance of chikungunya mainly in southern states of India has also been discussed. The possible need to address the threat and efforts made in India have also been highlighted. The paper concludes with a positive lead that with better preparedness threat of climate change on vector-borne diseases may be negated.

Climatic predictors of the intra- and inter-annual distributions of plague cases in New Mexico based on 29 years of animal-based surveillance data

Within the United States, the majority of human plague cases are reported from New Mexico. We describe climatic factors involved in intra- and inter-annual plague dynamics using animal-based surveillance data from that state. Unlike the clear seasonal pattern observed at lower elevations, cases occur randomly throughout the year at higher elevations. Increasing elevation corresponded with delayed mean time in case presentation. Using local meteorological data (previous year mean annual precipitation, total degrees over 27 degrees C 3 years before and maximum winter temperatures 4 years before) we built a time-series model predicting annual case load that explained 75% of the variance in pet cases between years. Moreover, we found a significant correlation with observed annual human cases and predicted pet cases. Because covariates were time-lagged by at least 1 year, intensity of case loads can be predicted in advance of a plague season. Understanding associations between environmental and meteorological factors can be useful for anticipating future disease trends.

Threshold conditions for the persistence of plague transmission in urban rats

In this article we derive a mathematical expression characterizing the tendency for Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of plague, to become established in an urban rat population upon introduction, and evaluate this risk for several cities. The expression gives a threshold condition for the persistence of Y. pestis transmission in terms of measurable attributes of a local urban rat population: the average flea density and the rat colony size. If the local rat and flea populations exceed this threshold, plague circulation is predicted to continue; if not, it will burn out of its own accord. This expression may be used to evaluate both the vulnerability of a specific neighborhood and the effect of pest control strategies upon that vulnerability.

Correlates of environmental factors and human plague: an ecological study in Vietnam

BACKGROUND

Human plague caused by Yersinia pestis remains a public health threat in endemic countries, because the disease is associated with increased risk of mortality and severe economic and social consequences. During the past 10 years, outbreaks of plague have occasionally occurred in Vietnam's Central Highlands region. The present study sought to describe and analyse the occurrence of plague and its association with ecological factors.

METHODS

The study included all 510 communes of the Central Highlands region (with a total population of approximately 4 million) where 95% of incidence of plague cases in Vietnam had been reported from 1997 through 2002. Plague was clinically ascertained by using a standard protocol by WHO. Data on domestic fleas and rodents were obtained by using traps and periodic surveillance in accordance with the WHO guidelines. Temperature, duration of sunshine, rainfall and humidity were recorded as monthly averages by local meteorological stations. The association between these ecological factors and plague was assessed by using the Poisson regression model.

RESULTS

From 1997 through 2002, 472 cases of plague were reported, of whom 24 (5.1%) died. The incidence of plague peaked during the dry season, with approximately 63% of cases occurring from February through April. The risk of plague occurrence was associated with an increased monthly flea index (RR and 95% CI: 1.93; 1.61-2.33 for months with the flea index >1) and increased rodent density (RR 1.23; 1.15-1.32 per each 3% increase in density). Moreover, the risk of plague increased during the dry season (RR 2.07; 1.64-2.62), when rainfall fell <10 mm (RR 1.44; 1.17-1.77).

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that the flea index, rodent density and rainfall could be used as ecological indicators of plague risk in Vietnam. The data also suggest that the occurrence of plague in Vietnam's Central Highlands is likely resulted from multiple causes that remain to be delineated.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

BACKGROUND

Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance.

RESULTS

Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras.

CONCLUSION

Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions.

Colorado animal-based plague surveillance systems: relationships between targeted animal species and prediction efficacy of areas at risk for humans

Human plague risks (Yersinia pestis infection) are greatest when epizootics cause high mortality among this bacterium's natural rodent hosts. Therefore, health departments in plague-endemic areas commonly establish animal-based surveillance programs to monitor Y. pestis infection among plague hosts and vectors. The primary objectives of our study were to determine whether passive animal-based plague surveillance samples collected in Colorado from 1991 to 2005 were sampled from high human plague risk areas and whether these samples provided information useful for predicting human plague case locations. By comparing locations of plague-positive animal samples with a previously constructed GIS-based plague risk model, we determined that the majority of plague-positive Gunnison's prairie dogs (100%) and non-prairie dog sciurids (85.82%), and moderately high percentages of sigmodontine rodents (71.4%), domestic cats (69.3%), coyotes (62.9%), and domestic dogs (62.5%) were recovered within 1 km of the nearest area posing high peridomestic risk to humans. In contrast, the majority of white-tailed prairie dog (66.7%), leporid (cottontailed and jack rabbits) (71.4%), and black-tailed prairie dog (93.0%) samples originated more than 1 km from the nearest human risk habitat. Plague-positive animals or their fleas were rarely (one of 19 cases) collected within 2 km of a case exposure site during the 24 months preceding the dates of illness onset for these cases. Low spatial accuracy for identifying epizootic activity prior to human plague cases suggested that other mammalian species or their fleas are likely more important sources of human infection in high plague risk areas. To address this issue, epidemiological observations and multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analyses (MLVA) were used to preliminarily identify chipmunks as an under-sampled, but potentially important, species for human plague risk in Colorado.

Microhabitat characteristics of Akodon montensis, a reservoir for hantavirus, and hantaviral seroprevalence in an Atlantic forest site in eastern Paraguay

Hantaviruses may cause serious disease when transmitted to humans by their rodent hosts. Since their emergence in the Americas in 1993, there have been extensive efforts to understand the role of environmental factors on the presence of these viruses in their host rodent populations. HPS outbreaks have been linked to precipitation, but climatic factors alone have not been sufficient to predict the spatial-temporal dynamics of the environment-reservoir-virus system. Using a series of mark-recapture sampling sites located at the Mbaracayú Biosphere Reserve, an Atlantic Forest site in eastern Paraguay, we investigated the hypothesis that microhabitat might also influence the prevalence of Jaborá hantavirus within populations of its reservoir species, Akodon montensis. Seven trapping sessions were conducted during 2005-2006 at four sites chosen to capture variable microhabitat conditions within the study site. Analysis of microhabitat preferences showed that A. montensis preferred areas with little forest overstory and denser vegetation cover on and near the ground. Moreover, there was a significant difference in the microhabitat occupied by antibody-positive vs antibody-negative rodents, indicating that microhabitats with greater overstory cover may promote transmission and maintenance of hantavirus in A. montensis.

Adaptive strategies of Yersinia pestis to persist during inter-epizootic and epizootic periods

Plague is a flea-borne zoonotic bacterial disease caused by Yersinia pestis. It has caused three historical pandemics, including the Black Death which killed nearly a third of Europe's population in the 14th century. In modern times, plague epizootics can extirpate entire susceptible wildlife populations and then disappear for long time periods. Understanding how Y. pestis is maintained during inter-epizootic periods and the factors responsible for transitioning to epizootics is important for preventing and controlling pathogen transmission and ultimately reducing the burden of human disease. In this review, we focus primarily on plague in North American foci and discuss the potential adaptive strategies Y. pestis might employ to ensure not only its survival during inter-epizootic periods but also the rapid epizootic spread and invasion of new territories that are so characteristic of plague and have resulted in major pandemics and establishment of plague foci throughout much of the world.

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.

Human plague in the USA: the importance of regional and local climate

A 56-year time series of human plague cases (Yersinia pestis) in the western United States was used to explore the effects of climatic patterns on plague levels. We found that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), together with previous plague levels and above-normal temperatures, explained much of the plague variability. We propose that the PDO's impact on plague is conveyed via its effect on precipitation and temperature and the effect of precipitation and temperature on plague hosts and vectors: warmer and wetter climate leading to increased plague activity and thus an increased number of human cases. Our analysis furthermore provides insights into the consistency of plague mechanisms at larger scales.

Effects of the removal of large herbivores on fleas of small mammals

The removal of large herbivorous mammals can cause dramatic increases in the densities of small mammals. These small mammals are hosts for a variety of ectoparasites, many of which are important pathogens of human diseases such as plague and murine typhus. It is thus valuable from a human health perspective to understand if large herbivore removals can indirectly affect ectoparasite numbers and thus potentially alter disease risk. To make this determination, we experimentally excluded large herbivores and measured the number of fleas present on the numerically dominant small mammal, the pouched mouse, Saccostomus mearnsi. Removing large herbivores nearly doubled S. mearnsi density, while the percentage of mice infested with fleas (prevalence) and the average number of fleas per sampled mouse (intensity) remained constant. The net effect of doubling the number of mice via the removal of large herbivores was a near doubling in the number of fleas present in the study habitat. Because these fleas also parasitize humans and can serve as disease vectors, this work empirically demonstrates a potential mechanism by which ecosystem alterations could affect human risk for zoonotic diseases.