Seasonal trends of viral respiratory tract infections in the tropics

The influence of diurnal temperature range on the incidence of respiratory syncytial virus in Japan

The incidence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been reported to exhibit seasonal variation. However, the impact of diurnal temperature range (DTR) on RSV has not been investigated. After acquiring data related to cases of RSV and weather parameters of DTR in Fukuoka, Japan, between 2006 and 2012, we used negative binomial generalized linear models and distributed lag nonlinear models to assess the possible relationship between DTR and RSV cases, adjusting for confounding factors. Our analysis revealed that the weekly number of RSV cases increased with a relative risk of 3·30 (95% confidence interval 1·65-6·60) for every 1°C increase in DTR. Our study provides quantitative evidence that the number of RSV cases increased significantly with increasing DTR. We suggest that preventive measures for limiting the spread of RSV should be considered during extended periods of high DTR.

The role of temperature and humidity on seasonal influenza in tropical areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013

Background

The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama.

Method/Findings

Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07–1.31) and 1.32 (1.08–1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08–1.93) and 1.97 (1.34–2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6–0.86) and 0.79 (0.69–0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7–0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01–1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05–1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5–0.9).

Conclusions/Significance

The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others.

Barriers and Motivators of Influenza Vaccination Uptake among Primary Healthcare Workers in Singapore

Introduction:

Healthcare workers, especially primary healthcare workers, are at risk of contracting influenza from patients at their workplace. The uptake of influenza immunisation among healthcare workers has been inadequate in spite of this risk and the recommendation to receive annual influenza vaccination. This study aims to assess the barriers as well as the motivators of influenza immunisation among staff from an organisation of primary healthcare polyclinics in Singapore.

Methods:

Focus group interviews were conducted on healthcare workers from different occupation categories within the organisation and results were analysed.

Results:

Factors identified as barriers to influenza immunisation were: misconceptions regarding influenza immunisation, fear of experiencing pain or reaction from the vaccination, influence from other staff, uncertainty over the efficacy of influenza vaccination and perceived immunity against influenza virus. Motivators to immunisation were: the influence of other staff, direction from senior management, incentives for vaccination, accessibility and convenience in receiving the immunisation, reduction in risk of transmitting influenza to others and awareness and knowledge of influenza vaccination.

Conclusion:

Interventions to promote influenza immunisation based on these identified factors may help increase the immunisation uptake among healthcare workers.

Respiratory viral pathogens among Singapore military servicemen 2009-2012: epidemiology and clinical characteristics

Background

Few studies have comprehensively described tropical respiratory disease surveillance in military populations. There is also a lack of studies comparing clinical characteristics of the non-influenza pathogens with influenza and amongst themselves.

Methods

From May 2009 through October 2012, 7733 consenting cases of febrile respiratory illness (FRI) (temperature [greater than or equal to]37.5degreesC with cough or sorethroat) and controls in the Singapore military had clinical data and nasal washes collected prospectively. Nasal washes underwent multiplex PCR, and the analysis was limited to viral mono-infections.

Results

49% of cases tested positive for at least one virus, of whom 10% had multiple infections. 53% of the FRI cases fulfilled the definition of influenza-like illness (ILI), of whom 52% were positive for at least one virus. The most frequent etiologies for mono-infections among FRI cases were Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (13%), Influenza B (13%) and coxsackevirus (9%). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of ILI for influenza among FRI cases were 72%, 48%, 40% and 69% respectively. On logistic regression, there were marked differences in the prevalence of different symptoms and signs between viruses with fever more prevalent amongst influenza and adenovirus infections than other viruses.

Conclusion

There are multiple viral etiologies for FRI and ILI with differing clinical symptoms in the Singapore military. Influenza and coxsackevirus were the most common etiology for FRI, while influenza and adenoviruses displayed the most febrile symptoms. Further studies should explore these differences and possible interventions.

The seasonality of tuberculosis, sunlight, vitamin D, and household crowding

Background. Unlike other respiratory infections, tuberculosis diagnoses increase in summer. We performed an ecological analysis of this paradoxical seasonality in a Peruvian shantytown over 4 years.

Methods. Tuberculosis symptom-onset and diagnosis dates were recorded for 852 patients. Their tuberculosis-exposed cohabitants were tested for tuberculosis infection with the tuberculin skin test (n = 1389) and QuantiFERON assay (n = 576) and vitamin D concentrations (n = 195) quantified from randomly selected cohabitants. Crowding was calculated for all tuberculosis-affected households and daily sunlight records obtained.

Results. Fifty-seven percent of vitamin D measurements revealed deficiency (<50 nmol/L). Risk of deficiency was increased 2.0-fold by female sex (P < .001) and 1.4-fold by winter (P < .05). During the weeks following peak crowding and trough sunlight, there was a midwinter peak in vitamin D deficiency (P < .02). Peak vitamin D deficiency was followed 6 weeks later by a late-winter peak in tuberculin skin test positivity and 12 weeks after that by an early-summer peak in QuantiFERON positivity (both P < .04). Twelve weeks after peak QuantiFERON positivity, there was a midsummer peak in tuberculosis symptom onset (P < .05) followed after 3 weeks by a late-summer peak in tuberculosis diagnoses (P < .001).

Conclusions. The intervals from midwinter peak crowding and trough sunlight to sequential peaks in vitamin D deficiency, tuberculosis infection, symptom onset, and diagnosis may explain the enigmatic late-summer peak in tuberculosis.

Influenza virus genotypes circulating in and around Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, during post pandemic period, August 2010--September 2012

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

During the post influenza pandemic period, continuous surveillance of influenza virus and its subtypes is mandatory to help the policy makers to take effective and appropriate decisions. Therefore, this study was planned to determine the pattern of influenza virus activity in context to various meteorological and clinical parameters in and around Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India, during post pandemic period August 2010 - September 2012.

METHODS

Nasal swabs/throat swabs/nasopharyngeal aspirates of 2669 patients were collected. One-step real time PCR for detection of influenza virus was done according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) protocol.

RESULTS

Influenza positivity was 15.8 per cent (423/2669) in symptomatic patients. Of the 423 total positives, 192 (7.2%) were influenza A and 231 (8.7%) were influenza B. Positivity for influenza virus was significantly (P=0.001, OR=2.9, CI=1.9-4.3) higher in patients with Influenza like illness (ILI) (17.4%, 396/2271) than those with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) (6.8%, 27/398). Influenza A positive samples were subtyped as; pdmH1N1 (67.2%, 129/192) and seasonal H3N2 (32.8%, 63/192). It significantly correlated with monthly mean rainfall, humidity and dew point while atmospheric pressure was inversely related. No significant association was found with temperature and wind speed. Clinical variations were observed between different strains of Influenza virus.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide a clear picture of different clinical presentations of various strains of influenza A and B viruses and epidemiology of influenza infection from Lucknow (UP), India. The seasonality of influenza virus infection showed variation in relation to different environmental factors. Pandemic H1N1 caused more systemic infection than seasonal influenza A/H3N2 virus.

Estimating oxygen needs for childhood pneumonia in developing country health systems: a new model for expecting the unexpected

BACKGROUND

Planning for the reliable and cost-effective supply of a health service commodity such as medical oxygen requires an understanding of the dynamic need or 'demand' for the commodity over time. In developing country health systems, however, collecting longitudinal clinical data for forecasting purposes is very difficult. Furthermore, approaches to estimating demand for supplies based on annual averages can underestimate demand some of the time by missing temporal variability.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model was developed to estimate variable demand for a health service commodity using the important example of medical oxygen for childhood pneumonia. The model is based on five key factors affecting oxygen demand: annual pneumonia admission rate, hypoxaemia prevalence, degree of seasonality, treatment duration, and oxygen flow rate. These parameters were varied over a wide range of values to generate simulation results for different settings. Total oxygen volume, peak patient load, and hours spent above average-based demand estimates were computed for both low and high seasons.

FINDINGS

Oxygen demand estimates based on annual average values of demand factors can often severely underestimate actual demand. For scenarios with high hypoxaemia prevalence and degree of seasonality, demand can exceed average levels up to 68% of the time. Even for typical scenarios, demand may exceed three times the average level for several hours per day. Peak patient load is sensitive to hypoxaemia prevalence, whereas time spent at such peak loads is strongly influenced by degree of seasonality.

CONCLUSION

A theoretical study is presented whereby a simulation approach to estimating oxygen demand is used to better capture temporal variability compared to standard average-based approaches. This approach provides better grounds for health service planning, including decision-making around technologies for oxygen delivery. Beyond oxygen, this approach is widely applicable to other areas of resource and technology planning in developing country health systems.

Respiratory syncytial virus circulation in seven countries with Global Disease Detection Regional Centers

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of lower respiratory tract infections in young children globally, with the highest burden in low- and middle-income countries where the association between RSV activity and climate remains unclear.

METHODS

Monthly laboratory-confirmed RSV cases and associations with climate data were assessed for respiratory surveillance sites in tropical and subtropical areas (Bangladesh, China, Egypt, Guatemala, Kenya, South Africa, and Thailand) during 2004-2012. Average monthly minimum and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, and precipitation were calculated using daily local weather data from the US National Climatic Data Center.

RESULTS

RSV circulated with 1-2 epidemic periods each year in site areas. RSV seasonal timing and duration were generally consistent within country from year to year. Associations between RSV and weather varied across years and geographic locations. RSV usually peaked in climates with high annual precipitation (Bangladesh, Guatemala, and Thailand) during wet months, whereas RSV peaked during cooler months in moderately hot (China) and arid (Egypt) regions. In South Africa, RSV peaked in autumn, whereas no associations with seasonal weather trends were observed in Kenya.

CONCLUSIONS

Further understanding of RSV seasonality in developing countries and various climate regions will be important to better understand the epidemiology of RSV and for timing the use of future RSV vaccines and immunoprophylaxis in low- and middle-income countries.

Human parainfluenza virus in patients with influenza-like illness from Central and South America during 2006-2010

Background

Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are common viral causes of community-acquired pneumonia, particularly in children. The four types of HPIV have world-wide distribution; however, limited information exists about the epidemiological profile of HPIV in Latin-America.

Objective

Provide epidemiologic and phylogenetic information about HPIVs that circulated in Latin America between 2006 and 2010 to better characterize the extent and variability of this respiratory virus in the region.

Methods

Oropharyngeal swabs, demographic data and clinical characteristics were obtained from individuals with influenza-like illness in 10 Latin-American countries between 2006–2010. Specimens were analyzed with culture and molecular methods.

Results

A total of 30 561 individuals were enrolled; 991 (3·2%) were HPIV positive. Most infected participants were male (53·7%) and under 5 years of age (68·7%). The HPIV type most frequently isolated was HPIV-3 (403, 40·7%). In 66/2007 (3·3%) hospitalized individuals, HPIV was identified. The most frequent symptoms at enrollment were cough and rhinorrhea. We identified certain patterns for HPIV-1, -2 and -3 in specific cities. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a homogeneous distribution in the region.

Conclusions

In the current scenario, no vaccine or treatment is available for this pathogen. Our results contribute to the scarce epidemiologic and phylogenetic information of HPIV in the region that could support the development of specific management.

Strategies for reducing the risk of respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants and young children: a Canadian nurses' perspective

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections are prevalent globally and can cause substantial morbidity in infants and young children. The virus is easily transmitted by direct hand-to-hand contact and can lead to serious respiratory disease and hospitalization, particularly in premature infants and children with certain medical conditions. Educating families with young children, especially those in remote rural regions, regarding the potential adverse health outcomes of RSV infection and measures to reduce the risk of transmitting or acquiring RSV has been a key focus of the health care system in Canada. Geographic, cultural, and socioeconomic factors present formidable challenges to the execution of this endeavor. Therefore, it is critical to develop and systematically implement effective educational programs for both families and health care providers. In Canada, nurses play a critical role in education and counseling. In this review, we share our perspectives and suggest empirical practices that may be applicable worldwide.

Influenza seasonality and predominant subtypes of influenza virus in Guangdong, China, 2004-2012

BACKGROUND

Influenza surveillance is carried out in Guangdong province, southern China. A better understanding of influenza seasonality and predominant Subtypes of influenza virus in Guangdong can help to improve evidence-based prevention and control strategies for influenza in the future.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

THERE ARE THREE CATEGORIES OF INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE IN GUANGDONG: Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Outpatient Surveillance, ILI Outbreak Surveillance and Influenza Virus Surveillance. This paper summarizes collected influenza surveillance data from January 2004 to December 2012 in Guangdong province. Time series analysis and "peak analysis" were performed to estimate seasonality and temporal trends of influenza activity.

RESULTS

During the 9-year study period, a total of 37,571,582 outpatients had been recorded, in which 1,889,684 ILI cases had been reported. The provincial ILI visiting percentage peaked at 6-10%. A total of 107,115 respiratory specimens of ILI outpatients were collected, 17,454 (16.29%) of them tested for influenza virus were positive. Influenza virus peaks appeared in summer mostly with a median epidemic duration of 6 months. A total of 925 outbreaks recorded and 45,322 cases in which were affected. The majority of reported outbreaks (832 outbreaks, 90%) occurred in institutional settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza circulates periodically every year in Guangdong. Influenza activity had strong and clear seasonality with epidemic periods in summer for last decade. The presence of local unique seasonal pattern and its changes emphasizes the need to optimize timing of influenza vaccine delivery and other public health interventions.

The viral aetiology of influenza-like illnesses in Kampala and Entebbe, Uganda, 2008

BACKGROUND

As the threat of zoonoses and the emergence of pandemic-prone respiratory viruses increases, there is a need to establish baseline information on the incidence of endemic pathogens in countries worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the presence of viruses associated with influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in Uganda.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in which nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected from patients diagnosed with ILI in Kampala and Entebbe between 14 August 2008 - 15 December 2008. A multiplex polymerase chain reaction assay for detecting 12 respiratory viruses was used.

RESULTS

A total of 369 patients (52.3% females) was enrolled; the median age was 6 years (range 1-70). One or more respiratory viruses were detected in 172 (46.6%) cases and their prevalence were influenza A virus (19.2%), adenovirus (8.7%), human rhinovirus A (7.9%), coronavirus OC43 (4.3%), parainfluenza virus 1 (2.7%), parainfluenza virus 3 (2.7%), influenza B virus (2.2%), respiratory syncytial virus B (2.2%), human metapneumovirus (1.4%), respiratory syncytial virus A (1.1%), parainfluenza virus 2 (0.5%) and coronavirus 229E (0.5%). There were 24 (14.0%) mixed infections.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified some of the respiratory viruses associated with ILI in Uganda. The circulation of some of the viruses was previously unknown in the study population. These results are useful in order to guide future surveillance and case management strategies involving respiratory illnesses in Uganda.

Regional similarities in seasonal mortality across the United States: an examination of 28 metropolitan statistical areas

Human mortality exhibits a strong seasonal pattern with deaths in winter far exceeding those in the summer. While the pattern itself is clear, there have been very few studies examining whether the magnitude or timing of seasonal mortality varies considerably across space. Thus, the goal of this study is to conduct a comprehensive geographic analysis of seasonal mortality across the United States and to uncover systematic regional differences in such mortality. Unique seasonal mortality curves were created for 28 metropolitan statistical areas across the United States, and the amplitude and timing of mortality peaks were determined. The findings here indicate that the seasonality of mortality exhibits strong spatial variation with the largest seasonal mortality amplitudes found in the southwestern United States and the smallest in the North, along with South Florida. In addition, there were strong intra-regional similarities that exist among the examined cities, implying that environmental factors are more important than social factors in determining seasonal mortality response. This work begins to fill a large gap within the scientific literature concerning the geographic variation and underlying causes of seasonal mortality across the United States.

Risk Factors for Complicated Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Disease in Children

Introduction: Singapore had its first case of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 on 26 May 2009. As of 3 August 2009, 440 children with confirmed H1N1 were admitted to KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH). Materials and Methods: This is a retrospective case control study of children admitted from 26 May 2009 to 19 July 2009 with H1N1 infection. Cases and controls were first differentiated by whether they were complicated or non-complicated in nature, and subsequently analysed with regards to possible independent risk factors. Results: We analysed 143 admitted children; 48 cases and 95 controls (1 : 2 ratio). Significant comorbidity was found in 20.3% (n = 29) of patients with the majority having asthma (n = 18, 12.6 %) followed by obesity (n = 7, 4.9%). Binary logistic regression analysis showed risk factors for complicated disease were comorbidity (adjusted OR 6.0, 95% CI, 2.5 to 14.6, P < 0.0001) and age <2 years (adjusted OR 9.8, 95% CI, 2.4 to 40, P = 0.001). Age less than 5 years was not found to be a risk factor. Conclusion: In the early stages of an evolving influenza epidemic when oseltamivir stocks are low, oseltamivir treatment for influenza can be streamlined and offered to those at highest risk who are under 2 years old or have significant comorbidity to prevent complicated disease. Key words: Children, Complications, Influenza A H1N1, Risk factors

Latitudinal variations in seasonal activity of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): a global comparative review

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

METHODS

We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.

RESULTS

Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.

CONCLUSION

Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.

The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza

Influenza A (H3N2) offers a well-studied, yet not fully understood, disease in terms of the interactions between pathogen population dynamics, epidemiology and genetics. A major open question is why the virus population is globally dominated by a single and very recently diverged (2-8 years) lineage. Classically, this has been modeled by limiting the generation of new successful antigenic variants, such that only a small subset of progeny acquire the necessary mutations to evade host immunity. An alternative approach was recently suggested by Recker et al. in which a limited number of antigenic variants are continuously generated, but most of these are suppressed by pre-existing host population immunity. Here we develop a framework spanning the regimes described above to explore the impact of rates of mutation and levels of competition on phylodynamic patterns. We find that the evolutionary dynamics of the subtype H3N2 influenza is most easily generated within this framework when it is mutation limited as well as being under strong immune selection at a number of epitope regions of limited diversity.

Etiology and seasonality of viral respiratory infections in rural Honduran children

BACKGROUND

Limited data are available in Honduras that describe the etiology and seasonality of respiratory infections, especially in rural outpatient settings. Better data may lead to improved therapeutic and preventive strategies. The goal of our study was to determine the viral etiology and seasonality of acute respiratory infections in a rural Honduran population of children.

METHODS

Prospective clinic surveillance was conducted to identify children < 5 years of age presenting with respiratory symptoms of < 5 days duration. We obtained data on age, sex, medical history, breastfeeding history, symptoms, risk factors, household setting, temperature, respiratory rate and chest examination findings. To assess the association between specific viruses and weather, regional meteorological data were collected. Nasopharyngeal samples were tested for 16 respiratory viruses using a multiplex polymerase chain reaction panel.

RESULTS

From February 2010 through June 2011, 345 children < 5 years of age were enrolled; 17%, 23%, 30% and 31% were <6, 6-11, 12-23 and 24-60 months old, respectively. Including all clinics in the region, 44.5% of patients < 5 years of age with documented respiratory diagnoses were enrolled. At least 1 virus was identified in 75.4% children, of which 7.5% were coinfections; 13.3% were positive for parainfluenza, 11.9% for influenza, 8.1% for human metapneumovirus and 7.5% for respiratory syncytial virus. Rainfall correlated with parainfluenza (P < 0.0001), influenza (P < 0.0001), human metapneumovirus (P = 0.0182) and respiratory syncytial virus (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that the spectrum of viruses in ill, rural, Honduran children is similar to that in North and Central America, although the seasonality is typical of some tropical regions.

Influenza B lineage circulation and hospitalization rates in a subtropical city, Hong Kong, 2000-2010

BACKGROUND

A need for quadrivalent vaccines to cover both lineages of influenza B has been raised. Information on the circulation status of influenza B lineages and the associated hospitalization rates is important to assist evidence-based decision making. This retrospective study revealed the situation in a subtropical city over a 10-year period.

METHODS

Sequences of 268 influenza B isolates were analyzed to identify the circulating pool of virus lineages for each year. Hospital records and population census data were used to estimate annual age-specific hospitalization rates.

RESULTS

Cocirculation with 2 influenza B lineages was found in 9 of the 10 years. Only in 6 of the 10 years had the vaccine strain successfully matched with the lineage that was found in >50% of the circulating pool. Six years were predominated by one lineage (occupying >80% of the circulating pool), and these years had higher (average, 1.4-fold) hospitalization rates. Matching between vaccine and circulating lineage was achieved only in 2 of the 6 "predominated years." The Yamagata lineage accounted for most (5/6) of the predominated years. Overall, 24% of influenza admissions were due to influenza B, and influenza B contributed to a higher proportion (41.9%) among children and young teenagers (5-14 years old).

CONCLUSIONS

Cocirculation with 2 influenza B lineages is common in the subtropical region. To predict the next predominant lineage proves to be difficult. Influenza B accounts for a substantial fraction of influenza-associated hospitalizations, especially among children and young teenagers. Quadrivalent vaccines may improve the effectiveness of influenza vaccination programs.

Influenza outbreaks in Singapore: epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment and prevention

With the recent influenza A/H1N1 2009 pandemic still spreading through global populations, there has been an increased focus on optimizing the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of influenza infections, as well as the epidemiology of the virus. Clinical and epidemiological data on influenza infections in tropical countries have been relatively sparse until fairly recently, and it is the aim of this review to close some of these gaps by examining the behavior of influenza viruses in the tropical Singaporean population.

Sunshine, rainfall, humidity and child pneumonia in the tropics: time-series analyses

Few studies have formally examined the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of child pneumonia in the tropics, despite the fact that most child pneumonia deaths occur there. We examined the association between four meteorological exposures (rainy days, sunshine, relative humidity, temperature) and the incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children in the Philippines using three time-series methods: correlation of seasonal patterns, distributed lag regression, and case-crossover. Lack of sunshine was most strongly associated with pneumonia in both lagged regression [overall relative risk over the following 60 days for a 1-h increase in sunshine per day was 0·67 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0·51-0·87)] and case-crossover analysis [odds ratio for a 1-h increase in mean daily sunshine 8-14 days earlier was 0·95 (95% CI 0·91-1·00)]. This association is well known in temperate settings but has not been noted previously in the tropics. Further research to assess causality is needed.

Estimated incidence of influenza-virus-associated severe pneumonia in children in El Salvador, 2008-2010

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the incidence of influenza-virus-associated severe pneumonia among Salvadorian children aged < 5 years.

METHODS

Data on children aged < 5 years admitted with severe pneumonia to a sentinel hospital in the western region were collected weekly. Nasal and oropharyngeal swab specimens were collected from a convenience sample of case patients for respiratory virus testing. A health-care utilization survey was conducted in the hospital catchment area to determine the proportion of residents who sought care at the hospital. The incidence of influenza-virus-associated severe pneumonia among all Salvadorian children aged < 5 years was estimated from surveillance and census data, with adjustment for health-care utilization. Influenza virus strains were characterized by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to determine their correspondence with northern and southern hemisphere influenza vaccine formulations.

FINDINGS

Physicians identified 2554 cases of severe pneumonia. Samples from 608 cases were tested for respiratory viruses and 37 (6%) were positive for influenza virus. The estimated incidence of influenza-virus-associated severe pneumonia was 3.2 cases per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, CI: 2.8-3.7) overall, 1.5 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 1.0-2.0) during 2008, 7.6 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 6.5-8.9) during 2009 and 0.6 cases per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 0.3-1.0) during 2010. Northern and southern hemisphere vaccine formulations matched influenza virus strains isolated during 2008 and 2010.

CONCLUSION

Influenza-virus-associated severe pneumonia occurred frequently among young Salvadorian children during 2008-2010. Antigens in northern and southern hemisphere influenza vaccine formulations corresponded to circulating strains.

A molecular epidemiology survey of respiratory adenoviruses circulating in children residing in Southern Palestine

A molecular epidemiology survey was performed in order to establish and document the respiratory adenovirus pathogen profiles among children in Southern Palestine. Three hundred and thirty-eight hospitalized pediatric cases with adenovirus-associated respiratory tract infections were analyzed. Forty four cases out of the 338 were evaluated in more detail for the adenoviruses types present. All of the children resided in Southern Palestine, that is, in city, village and refugee camp environments within the districts of Hebron and Bethlehem. Human adenoviruses circulated throughout 2005–2010, with major outbreaks occurring in the spring months. A larger percent of the children diagnosed with adenoviral infections were male infants. DNA sequence analysis of the hexon genes from 44 samples revealed that several distinct adenovirus types circulated in the region; these were HAdV-C1, HAdV-C2, HAdV-B3 and HAdV-C5. However, not all of these types were detected within each year. This is the first study ever conducted in Palestine of the genetic epidemiology of respiratory adenovirus infections.

Molecular epidemiology of canine norovirus in dogs from Portugal, 2007-2011

Background

Canine noroviruses (NoVs) have been recently described in south European countries and associated with outbreaks of diarrhea in kennels. Unlike human NoV which are known as an important cause of acute gastroenteritis, little is known about the role of canine NoV as pathogens in dogs as well as its epidemiological features.

Results

From 2007–2011, 256 stool samples were collected from dogs across Portugal and tested by RT-PCR for canine NoV. Viral fecal shedding was found to be 23% (60/256). All sequences contained the GLPSG amino acid motif characteristic of the RNA-dependent RNA-polymerase gene of NoVs and had a high nucleotide identity (range 98%–100%) to the canine NoV first described in Portugal. The highest shedding rate was detected during the winter months.

Conclusions

This study shows that canine NoV infection is endemic in the dog population of Portugal. Peak shedding was detected in the winter months, a well-known epidemiologic feature of human NoV infections.

Hospitalization due to human parainfluenza virus-associated lower respiratory tract illness in rural Thailand

Background  Human parainfluenza viruses (HPIVs) are an important cause of acute respiratory illness in young children but little is known about their epidemiology in the tropics.

Methods  From 2003–2007, we conducted surveillance for hospitalized respiratory illness in rural Thailand. We performed reverse‐transcriptase polymerase chain reaction on nasopharyngeal specimens and enzyme immunoassay on paired sera

Results  Of 10,097 patients enrolled, 573 (5%) of all ages and 370 (9%) of children <5 years of age had evidence of HPIV infection (HPIV1=189, HPIV2=54, HPIV3=305, untyped=27). Average adjusted annual incidence of HPIV‐associated hospitalized respiratory illness was greatest in children aged <1 year (485 per 100,000 person years).

Conclusions  In Thailand, HPIV caused substantial illnesses requiring hospitalization in young children.

Seasonality of viral respiratory infections in southeast of Brazil: the influence of temperature and air humidity

Viruses are the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in childhood and the main viruses involved are Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Influenzavirus A and B (FLUA and FLUB), Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, 2 and 3 (HPIV1, 2 and 3) and Human Rhinovirus (HRV). The purposes of this study were to detect respiratory viruses in hospitalized children younger than six years and identify the influence of temperature and relative air humidity on the detected viruses. Samples of nasopharyngeal washes were collected from hospitalized children between May/2004 and September/2005. Methods of viral detection were RT-PCR, PCR and HRV amplicons were confirmed by hybridization. Results showed 54% (148/272) of viral positivity. HRSV was detected in 29% (79/272) of the samples; HRV in 23.1% (63/272); HPIV3 in 5.1% (14/272); HMPV in 3.3% (9/272); HPIV1 in 2.9% (8/272); FLUB in 1.4% (4/272), FLUA in 1.1% (3/272), and HPIV2 in 0.3% (1/272). The highest detection rates occurred mainly in the spring 2004 and in the autumn 2005. It was observed that viral respiratory infections tend to increase as the relative air humidity decreases, showing significant association with monthly averages of minimal temperature and minimal relative air humidity. In conclusion, viral respiratory infections vary according to temperature and relative air humidity and viral respiratory infections present major incidences it coldest and driest periods.

Local spatial and temporal processes of influenza in Pennsylvania, USA: 2003-2009

Background

Influenza is a contagious respiratory disease responsible for annual seasonal epidemics in temperate climates. An understanding of how influenza spreads geographically and temporally within regions could result in improved public health prevention programs. The purpose of this study was to summarize the spatial and temporal spread of influenza using data obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Health's influenza surveillance system.

Methodology and Findings

We evaluated the spatial and temporal patterns of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases in Pennsylvania, United States from six influenza seasons (2003–2009). Using a test of spatial autocorrelation, local clusters of elevated risk were identified in the South Central region of the state. Multivariable logistic regression indicated that lower monthly precipitation levels during the influenza season (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.94), fewer residents over age 64 (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.73) and fewer residents with more than a high school education (OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.61, 0.95) were significantly associated with membership in this cluster. In addition, time series analysis revealed a temporal lag in the peak timing of the influenza B epidemic compared to the influenza A epidemic.

Conclusions

These findings illustrate a distinct spatial cluster of cases in the South Central region of Pennsylvania. Further examination of the regional transmission dynamics within these clusters may be useful in planning public health influenza prevention programs.

Epidemiology and seasonality of respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: a retrospective study of 27 years

Background

Viral respiratory tract infections (RTI) are relatively understudied in Southeast Asian tropical countries. In temperate countries, seasonal activity of respiratory viruses has been reported, particularly in association with temperature, while inconsistent correlation of respiratory viral activity with humidity and rain is found in tropical countries. A retrospective study was performed from 1982-2008 to investigate the viral etiology of children (≤ 5 years old) admitted with RTI in a tertiary hospital in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Methods

A total of 10269 respiratory samples from all children ≤ 5 years old received at the hospital's diagnostic virology laboratory between 1982-2008 were included in the study. Immunofluorescence staining (for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1-3, and adenovirus) and virus isolation were performed. The yearly hospitalization rates and annual patterns of laboratory-confirmed viral RTIs were determined. Univariate ANOVA was used to analyse the demographic parameters of cases. Multiple regression and Spearman's rank correlation were used to analyse the correlation between RSV cases and meteorological parameters.

Results

A total of 2708 cases were laboratory-confirmed using immunofluorescence assays and viral cultures, with the most commonly detected being RSV (1913, 70.6%), parainfluenza viruses (357, 13.2%), influenza viruses (297, 11.0%), and adenovirus (141, 5.2%). Children infected with RSV were significantly younger, and children infected with influenza viruses were significantly older. The four main viruses caused disease throughout the year, with a seasonal peak observed for RSV in September-December. Monthly RSV cases were directly correlated with rain days, and inversely correlated with relative humidity and temperature.

Conclusion

Viral RTIs, particularly due to RSV, are commonly detected in respiratory samples from hospitalized children in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. As in temperate countries, RSV infection in tropical Malaysia also caused seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis and vaccination programmes.

Differing clinical characteristics between influenza strains among young healthy adults in the tropics

Background

Influenza infections may result in different clinical presentations. This study aims to determine the clinical differences between circulating influenza strains in a young healthy adult population in the tropics.

Methods

A febrile respiratory illness (FRI) (fever ≥ 37.5°C with cough and/or sore throat) surveillance program was started in 4 large military camps in Singapore on May 2009. Personnel with FRI who visited the camp clinics from 11 May 2009 to 25 June 2010 were recruited. Nasal washes and interviewer-administered questionnaires on demographic information and clinical features were obtained from consenting participants. All personnel who tested positive for influenza were included in the study. Overall symptom load was quantified by counting the symptoms or signs, and differences between strains evaluated using linear models.

Results

There were 434 (52.9%) pandemic H1N1-2009, 58 (7.1%) seasonal H3N2, 269 (32.8%) influenza B, and 10 (1.2%) seasonal H1N1 cases. Few seasonal influenza A (H1N1) infections were detected and were therefore excluded from analyses, together with undetermined influenza subtypes (44 (1.5%)), or more than 1 co-infecting subtype (6 (0.2%)). Pandemic H1N1-2009 cases had significantly fewer symptoms or signs (mean 7.2, 95%CI 6.9-7.4, difference 1.6, 95%CI 1.2-2.0, p < 0.001) than the other two subtypes (mean 8.7, 95%CI 8.5-9.0). There were no statistical differences between H3N2 and influenza B (p = 0.58). Those with nasal congestion, rash, eye symptoms, injected pharynx or fever were more likely to have H3N2; and those with sore throat, fever, injected pharynx or rhinorrhoea were more likely to have influenza B than H1N1-2009.

Conclusions

Influenza cases have different clinical presentations in the young adult population. Pandemic H1N1 influenza cases had fewer and milder clinical symptoms than seasonal influenza. As we only included febrile cases and had no information on the proportion of afebrile infections, further research is needed to confirm whether the relatively milder presentation of pandemic versus seasonal influenza infections applies to all infections or only febrile illnesses.

Comparative dynamics, morbidity and mortality burden of pediatric viral respiratory infections in an equatorial city

BACKGROUND

Although acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the global leading cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality, the relative impact of viral pathogens on pediatric ARIs is still poorly understood, especially in equatorial settings. Long-term studies of multiple viruses concurrently circulating in these regions are still lacking. Here, we report the results of a systematic prospective surveillance of multiple respiratory viruses conducted every weekday for nearly a decade in an equatorial city in Brazil.

METHODS

We analyzed the relative burden of influenza, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus, and metapneumovirus, their seasonality, and their association with climatic and demographic factors, ARI diagnosis, and pediatric mortality.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

RSV was the primary driver of severe childhood respiratory infections, including pneumonia. RSV was also the virus most strongly associated with respiratory-associated deaths, with RSV circulation and pediatric mortality being in phase. Annual circulation of influenza peaked much earlier than annual mortality due to respiratory causes. The results also show that viral circulation can be strongly seasonal even in equatorial regions, which lack seasons with low temperatures: RSV and influenza were concentrated in the rainy season, whereas parainfluenza predominantly circulated in the dry season. The consistent epidemiologic patterns observed can be used for an effective adjustment of the timing of therapeutic and prophylactic interventions in this and potentially in other equatorial regions.

Correlations between clinical illness, respiratory virus infections and climate factors in a tropical paediatric population

Weekly (August 2003-December 2008) numbers of five common paediatric diseases and the incidence of respiratory viruses were obtained from a children's hospital in Singapore and correlated with climate data using multivariate time-series techniques. Upper respiratory tract infections were positively correlated with the incidences of influenza A, B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and parainfluenza viruses (types 1-3 combined). Lower respiratory tract infections were positively correlated with only the incidence of RSV. Both upper and lower respiratory tract infections were negatively correlated with relative humidity. Asthma admissions were negatively correlated with maximum temperature and positively correlated with the incidence of influenza B and increasing hours of sunshine. Although sporadic cases of adenovirus infection were identified, not enough cases were available for a more detailed analysis. Gastroenteritis and urinary tract infections, included as control diseases, were not correlated significantly with any climate parameters. These correlations are compatible with current understanding of respiratory virus survival under certain climate conditions and may assist the prediction of disease burdens and hospital resource planning in such tropical environments.

Healthcare workers and H1N1 vaccination: does having a chronic disease make a difference?

Introduction

A novel H1N1 vaccine was manufactured in response to the pandemic in 2009. This study describes the willingness to be vaccinated for H1N1 among healthcare workers (HCWs) in primary healthcare clinics with and without chronic medical conditions, their reasons for refusing vaccination and whether they sought additional information to make an informed decision for the vaccination.

Materials and methods

An anonymous survey was conducted in November 2009 among all medical, nursing, allied health and operations HCWs in nine primary care clinics in Singapore. Participants were asked if they had any chronic medical conditions associated with influenza-related complications (example: asthma, stroke, heart disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, renal disease), their perception towards vaccination for H1N1 and against seasonal influenza within the preceding 2 years.

Results

The initial response rate was 80%, of which 711 (54.7%) of the completed surveys were analysed. Among the 711 respondents, 16.6% reported having at least 1 chronic disease. Asthma (10.8%), hypertension (10.4%) and dyslipidaemia (9.8%) were the main chronic conditions. Only 39.4% of respondents were willing to be vaccinated against H1N1. Males were 2.07 (95% CI 1.19–3.62) times more likely than females to receive the H1N1 vaccination; the 45–54 and 55+ years old were 2.12 (95% CI 1.06–4.24) and 2.44 (95% CI 1.13–5.27) times more willing than those below 25 years old; and those who considered accepting the seasonal influenza vaccine were 7.0 times more likely than those who did not (95%CI 4.48–10.92). The 2 principal barriers were “fear of side effects” and “unsure of vaccine's effectiveness”. Although 78% attended some H1N1-related talks, only 7% of all HCWs felt that they had sufficient information. Most wanted more information about the vaccine's safety profile and contraindications.

Conclusion

Fewer than 40% of HCWs expressed willingness to receive the H1N1 vaccination, lower than past rates of influenza vaccine. HCWs in primary care clinics who had a chronic condition did not perceive themselves to be at higher risk of developing H1N1-related complications and were not more willing than the rest of the HCWs to accept H1N1 vaccination. Vaccine's side effects and effectiveness were the main concerns. Uptake of H1N1 vaccine may improve with targeted health information covering the vaccine's safety profile.

Temporally structured metapopulation dynamics and persistence of influenza A H3N2 virus in humans

Populations of seasonal influenza virus experience strong annual bottlenecks that pose a considerable extinction risk. It has been suggested that an influenza source population located in tropical Southeast or East Asia seeds annual temperate epidemics. Here we investigate the seasonal dynamics and migration patterns of influenza A H3N2 virus by analysis of virus samples obtained from 2003 to 2006 from Australia, Europe, Japan, New York, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, and newly sequenced viruses from Hong Kong. In contrast to annual temperate epidemics, relatively low levels of relative genetic diversity and no seasonal fluctuations characterized virus populations in tropical Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. Bayesian phylogeographic analysis using discrete temporal and spatial characters reveal high rates of viral migration between urban centers tested. Although the virus population that migrated between Southeast Asia and Hong Kong persisted through time, this was dependent on virus input from temperate regions and these tropical regions did not maintain a source for annual H3N2 influenza epidemics. We further show that multiple lineages may seed annual influenza epidemics, and that each region may function as a potential source population. We therefore propose that the global persistence of H3N2 influenza A virus is the result of a migrating metapopulation in which multiple different localities may seed seasonal epidemics in temperate regions in a given year. Such complex global migration dynamics may confound control efforts and contribute to the emergence and spread of antigenic variants and drug-resistant viruses.

Effectiveness of pandemic H1N1-2009 vaccination in reducing laboratory confirmed influenza infections among military recruits in tropical Singapore

Background

Limited information is available about pandemic H1N1-2009 influenza vaccine effectiveness in tropical communities. We studied the effectiveness of a pandemic H1N1 vaccination program in reducing influenza cases in Singapore.

Methods

A surveillance study was conducted among military personnel presenting with febrile respiratory illness from mid-2009 to mid-2010. Consenting individuals underwent nasal washes, which were tested with RT-PCR and subtyped. A vaccination program (inactivated monovalent Panvax H1N1-2009 vaccine) was carried out among recruits. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to quantify relative risks in the pre- and post-vaccination periods. An autoregressive generalised linear model (GLM) was developed to minimise confounding.

Results

Of 2858 participants, 437(15.3%), 60(2.1%), and 273(9.6%) had pandemic H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B. The ratio of relative risks for pandemic H1N1 infection before and after vaccination for the recruit camp relative to other camps was 0.14(0.016,0.49); for H3N2, 0.44(0.035,1.8); and for influenza B, 18(0.77,89). Using the GLM for the recruit camp, post-vaccination weekly cases decreased by 54%(37%,67%, p<0.001) from that expected without vaccination; influenza B increased by 66 times(9–479 times, p<0.001); with no statistical difference for H3N2 (p = 0.54).

Conclusions

Pandemic vaccination reduced H1N1-2009 disease burden among military recruits. Routine seasonal influenza vaccination should be considered.

A frequentist approach to estimating the force of infection for a respiratory disease using repeated measurement data from a birth cohort

This article aims to develop a probability-based model involving the use of direct likelihood formulation and generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches useful in estimating important disease parameters from longitudinal or repeated measurement data. The current application is based on infection with respiratory syncytial virus. The force of infection and the recovery rate or per capita loss of infection are the parameters of interest. However, because of the limitation arising from the study design and subsequently, the data generated only the force of infection is estimable. The problem of dealing with time-varying disease parameters is also addressed in the article by fitting piecewise constant parameters over time via the GLM approach. The current model formulation is based on that published in White LJ, Buttery J, Cooper B, Nokes DJ and Medley GF. Rotavirus within day care centres in Oxfordshire, UK: characterization of partial immunity. Journal of Royal Society Interface 2008; 5: 1481–1490 with an application to rotavirus transmission and immunity.

Virological surveillance of human influenza in Indonesia, October 2008-March 2010

Despite the high prevalence of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza A viruses in Indonesia, epidemiology information on seasonal human influenza is lacking. The present authors, therefore, conducted virologic surveillance in Surabaya, East Java from October 2008 to March 2010. Influenza viruses, including pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses, were isolated from 71 of 635 individuals tested. Seasonal influenza peaked in the rainy season. Compared with seasonal influenza viruses, pandemic 2009 viruses were isolated from younger patients with milder symptoms. Given the high prevalence of H5N1 infections in humans, continued influenza surveillance is essential for pandemic preparedness.

Seasonal oscillation of human infection with influenza A/H5N1 in Egypt and Indonesia

As of June 22, 2011, influenza A/H5N1 has caused a reported 329 deaths and 562 cases in humans, typically attributed to contact with infected poultry. Influenza H5N1 has been described as seasonal. Although several studies have evaluated environmental risk factors for H5N1 in poultry, none have considered seasonality of H5N1 in humans. In addition, temperature and humidity are suspected to drive influenza in temperate regions, but drivers in the tropics are unknown, for H5N1 as well as other influenza viruses. An analysis was conducted to determine whether human H5N1 cases occur seasonally in association with changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity. Data analyzed were H5N1 human cases in Indonesia (n = 135) and Egypt (n = 50), from January 1, 2005 (Indonesia) or 2006 (Egypt) through May 1, 2008 obtained from WHO case reports, and average daily weather conditions obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Fourier time series analysis was used to determine seasonality of cases and associations between weather conditions and human H5N1 incidence. Human H5N1 cases in Indonesia occurred with a period of 1.67 years/cycle (p<0.05) and in Egypt, a period of 1.18 years/cycle (p≅0.10). Human H5N1 incidence in Egypt, but not Indonesia, was strongly associated with meteorological variables (κ²≥0.94) and peaked in Egypt when precipitation was low, and temperature, absolute humidity and relative humidity were moderate compared to the average daily conditions in Egypt. Weather conditions coinciding with peak human H5N1 incidence in Egypt suggest that human infection may be occurring primarily via droplet transmission from close contact with infected poultry.

Equal graph partitioning on estimated infection network as an effective epidemic mitigation measure

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics.

Influenza, solar radiation and vitamin D

The annual death numbers of influenza and pneumonia in Norway were studied for the time period 1980-2000. No direct relationships were found with the variations of the annual UVB fluences, probably due to the fact that these variations did not exceed 30%. However, there was a very pronounced seasonal variation of both influenza deaths and pneumonia deaths, the vast majority occurring during the winter. Vitamin D levels were also estimated from several publications. The data support the hypothesis that a high vitamin D level, as that found in the summer, acts in a protective manner with respect to influenza as well as pneumonia. The findings are discussed and compared with data from tropical and subtropical areas.

Global influenza seasonality: reconciling patterns across temperate and tropical regions

BACKGROUND

Despite the significant disease burden of the influenza virus in humans, our understanding of the basis for its pronounced seasonality remains incomplete. Past observations that influenza epidemics occur in the winter across temperate climates, combined with insufficient knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza in the tropics, led to the perception that cool and dry conditions were a necessary, and possibly sufficient, driver of influenza epidemics. Recent reports of substantial levels of influenza virus activity and well-defined seasonality in tropical regions, where warm and humid conditions often persist year-round, have rendered previous hypotheses insufficient for explaining global patterns of influenza.

OBJECTIVE

In this review, we examined the scientific evidence for the seasonal mechanisms that potentially explain the complex seasonal patterns of influenza disease activity observed globally.

METHODS

In this review we assessed the strength of a range of hypotheses that attempt to explain observations of influenza seasonality across different latitudes and how they relate to each other. We reviewed studies describing population-scale observations, mathematical models, and ecological, laboratory, and clinical experiments pertaining to influenza seasonality. The literature review includes studies that directly mention the topic of influenza seasonality, as well as other topics we believed to be relevant. We also developed an analytical framework that highlights the complex interactions among environmental stimuli, mediating mechanisms, and the seasonal timing of influenza epidemics and identify critical areas for further research.

CONCLUSIONS

The central questions in influenza seasonality remain unresolved. Future research is particularly needed in tropical localities, where our understanding of seasonality remains poor, and will require a combination of experimental and observational studies. Further understanding of the environmental factors that drive influenza circulation also may be useful to predict how dynamics will be affected at regional levels by global climate change.

A clinical diagnostic model for predicting influenza among young adult military personnel with febrile respiratory illness in Singapore

Introduction

Influenza infections present with wide-ranging clinical features. We aim to compare the differences in presentation between influenza and non-influenza cases among those with febrile respiratory illness (FRI) to determine predictors of influenza infection.

Methods

Personnel with FRI (defined as fever≥37.5°C, with cough or sore throat) were recruited from the sentinel surveillance system in the Singapore military. Nasal washes were collected, and tested using the Resplex II and additional PCR assays for etiological determination. Interviewer-administered questionnaires collected information on patient demographics and clinical features. Univariate comparison of the various parameters was conducted, with statistically significant parameters entered into a multivariate logistic regression model. The final multivariate model for influenza versus non-influenza cases was used to build a predictive probability clinical diagnostic model.

Results

821 out of 2858 subjects recruited from 11 May 2009 to 25 Jun 2010 had influenza, of which 434 (52.9%) had 2009 influenza A (H1N1), 58 (7.1%) seasonal influenza A (H3N2) and 269 (32.8%) influenza B. Influenza-positive cases were significantly more likely to present with running nose, chills and rigors, ocular symptoms and higher temperature, and less likely with sore throat, photophobia, injected pharynx, and nausea/vomiting. Our clinical diagnostic model had a sensitivity of 65% (95% CI: 58%, 72%), specificity of 69% (95% CI: 62%, 75%), and overall accuracy of 68% (95% CI: 64%, 71%), performing significantly better than conventional influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria.

Conclusions

Use of a clinical diagnostic model may help predict influenza better than the conventional ILI definition among young adults with FRI.

Comparison of the incidence of influenza in relation to climate factors during 2000-2007 in five countries

Relatively few international comparisons of the incidence of influenza related to climate parameters have been performed, particularly in the Eastern hemisphere. In this study, the incidence of influenza and climate data such as temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, from cities at different latitudes with contrasting climates: Singapore, Hong Kong (China), Ulaanbaatar (Mongolia), Vancouver (Canada), and three Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney) were examined to determine whether there was any overall relationship between the incidence of influenza and climate. Applying time-series analyses to the more comprehensive datasets, it was found that relative humidity was associated with the incidence of influenza A in Singapore, Hong Kong, Brisbane, and Vancouver. In the case of influenza B, the mean temperature was the key climate variable associated with the incidence of influenza in Hong Kong, Brisbane, Melbourne, and Vancouver. Rainfall was not significantly correlated with the incidence of influenza A or B in any of these cities.

Epidemiologic and clinical features of non-polio enteroviral infections in northern Taiwan in 2008

BACKGROUND

Non-polio enteroviruses may cause different diseases, including herpangina, hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD), meningitis, and nonspecific febrile illness; and cause epidemic outbreak annually. This study delineates the diversity of clinical presentations based on different serotypes and different groups [human enterovirus (HEV)-A and HEV-B] of enteroviruses (EVs) during the 2008 epidemic in National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH).

METHODS

We retrospectively identified patients younger than 18 years who had positive isolates of non-polio EV in throat swabs, rectal swabs, or cerebrospinal fluid, in NTUH from January 1 to December 31, 2008. For serotyping, immunofluorescence assay and polymerase chain reaction followed by viral structure protein-1 sequencing were applied. We analyzed and compared their clinical features among different serotypes and different groups of EVs.

RESULTS

Among 172 patients who were enrolled, 16 serotypes were identified. The major serotype in NTUH was EV71 (25.6%) followed by coxsackievirus A (CA)16 and coxsackievirus B (CB)4. EV71 manifested mostly as HFMD (89%) and was complicated with encephalomyelitis in three patients. Serotypes of HFMD included EV71 (70%), CA16 (27%), CA4, and CA6. Serotypes of herpangina were heterogeneous, and the major serotype was CA2 (35.7%) followed by CB4 (23.8%). Aseptic meningitis was entirely caused by HEV-B and mostly infected by echovirus 30 (50%). Among children with EV-related respiratory tract infection, CB4 (32%) was dominant in upper respiratory tract infection, whereas echovirus 4 (71%) was the major cause of lower respiratory tract infection. Cases of HEV-A were significantly younger than the cases of HEV-B (p = 0.04). Multivariate analysis revealed that the most significant factor associated with hospitalization is HEV-B (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-4.2; p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

At least 16 serotypes circulated in northern Taiwan in 2008. EV71 is the predominant strain in this outbreak. All patients with HFMD were infected by HEV-A, but HEV-B was associated with a higher rate of hospitalization and aseptic meningitis, which should be a cause of alert regarding public health.

Epidemiology of influenza-like illness in the Amazon Basin of Peru, 2008-2009

BACKGROUND

Data addressing the incidence and epidemiology of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) in tropical regions of the world is scarce, particularly for the neotropics of South America.

METHODS

We conducted active, population-based surveillance for ILI across 45 city blocks within the Amazon Basin city of Iquitos, Peru. Demographic data and household characteristics were collected for all participants, and participating households were visited three times weekly to inquire about ILI (fever plus cough or sore throat) among household residents. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs were collected from participants with ILI and tested for influenza virus infection.

RESULTS

Between May 1, 2008 and July 8, 2009, we monitored 10,341 participants for ILI for a total of 11,569.5 person-years. We detected 459 ILI episodes, with 252 (54.9%) of the participants providing specimens. Age-adjusted incidence of ILI was estimated to be 46.7 episodes/1000 person-years. Influenza A and B viruses were detected in 25 (9.9%) and 62 (24.6%) specimens of ILI patients, respectively, for an estimated age-adjusted incidence rate of 16.5 symptomatic influenza virus infections/1000 person-years. Risk factors for ILI included age, household crowding, and use of wood as cooking fuel. For influenza virus infection specifically, age and use of wood as a cooking fuel were also identified as risk factors, but no effect of household crowding was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results represent the initial population-based description of the epidemiology of ILI in the Amazon region of Peru, which will be useful for developing region-specific strategies for reducing the burden of respiratory disease.

Influenza surveillance in Shenzhen, the largest migratory metropolitan city of China, 2006–2009

Shenzhen is one of the largest migratory metropolitan cities in China. A standardized influenza surveillance system has been operating in Shenzhen for several years. The objectives of the present study were to describe the epidemiology of influenza in Shenzhen and to assess the impact of pandemic H1N1 on influenza activity. An average rate of 71 cases of influenza-like illness (ILI)/1000 consultations was reported, which was greater than the rate in the preceding 3 years. Laboratory surveillance showed that the annual proportion of specimens positive for influenza was 25·4% in 2009, representing a significant increase over the proportions of 5·4%, 11·6% and 12·2% in 2006, 2007 and 2008, respectively. A total of 414 ILI outbreaks were reported in 2009, which was a marked increase compared to the previous 3 years. Influenza activity reached a record high in Shenzhen in 2009. Seasonal A/H3N2 was the dominant strain during the summer and was gradually replaced by pandemic H1N1. A semi-annual cycle for influenza circulation began to appear due to the emergence of pandemic H1N1.

The seasonality of pandemic and non-pandemic influenzas: the roles of solar radiation and vitamin D

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal variations in ultraviolet B (UVB) radiation cause seasonal variations in vitamin D status. This may influence immune responses and play a role in the seasonality of influenza.

METHODS

Pandemic and non-pandemic influenzas in Sweden, Norway, the USA, Singapore, and Japan were studied. Weekly/monthly influenza incidence and death rates were evaluated in view of monthly UVB fluences.

RESULTS

Non-pandemic influenzas mostly occur in the winter season in temperate regions. UVB calculations show that at high latitudes very little, if any, vitamin D is produced in the skin during the winter. Even at 26°N (Okinawa) there is about four times more UVB during the summer than during the winter. In tropical regions there are two minor peaks in vitamin D photosynthesis, and practically no seasonality of influenza. Pandemics may start with a wave in an arbitrary season, while secondary waves often occur the following winter. Thus, it appears that a low vitamin D status may play a significant role in most influenzas.

CONCLUSIONS

In temperate latitudes even pandemic influenzas often show a clear seasonality. The data support the hypothesis that high fluences of UVB radiation (vitamin D level), as occur in the summer, act in a protective manner with respect to influenza.

Seasonal pattern of hospitalization from acute respiratory infections in Yaoundé, Cameroon

Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are among the leading causes of childhood morbidity and mortality in Africa. The effects of climatic factors on occurrence of ARIs in the tropics are not clear. During the years 2006-07, we reviewed the clinical registers of the Chantal Biya Foundation (CBF), Yaoundé, Cameroon, paediatric hospital to investigate the association between climatic factors and ARIs in children. Our findings show that rain, high relative humidity and low temperatures are directly associated with an increase in the frequency of hospitalization from ARIs. Given the high frequency of hospitalization from ARIs we suggest that influenza vaccination campaigns should be implemented taking into account the seasonality in Cameroon.

The impact of matching vaccine strains and post-SARS public health efforts on reducing influenza-associated mortality among the elderly

Public health administrators do not have effective models to predict excess influenza-associated mortality and monitor viral changes associated with it. This study evaluated the effect of matching/mismatching vaccine strains, type/subtype pattern changes in Taiwan's influenza viruses, and the impact of post-SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) public health efforts on excess influenza-associated mortalities among the elderly. A negative binomial model was developed to estimate Taiwan's monthly influenza-associated mortality among the elderly. We calculated three winter and annual excess influenza-associated mortalities [pneumonia and influenza (P&I), respiratory and circulatory, and all-cause] from the 1999-2000 through the 2006-2007 influenza seasons. Obtaining influenza virus sequences from the months/years in which death from P&I was excessive, we investigated molecular variation in vaccine-mismatched influenza viruses by comparing hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) of the circulating and vaccine strains. We found that the higher the isolation rate of A (H3N2) and vaccine-mismatched influenza viruses, the greater the monthly P&I mortality. However, this significant positive association became negative for higher matching of A (H3N2) and public health efforts with post-SARS effect. Mean excess P&I mortality for winters was significantly higher before 2003 than after that year [mean +/- S.D.: 1.44+/-1.35 vs. 0.35+/-1.13, p = 0.04]. Further analysis revealed that vaccine-matched circulating influenza A viruses were significantly associated with lower excess P&I mortality during post-SARS winters (i.e., 2005-2007) than during pre-SARS winters [0.03+/-0.06 vs. 1.57+/-1.27, p = 0.01]. Stratification of these vaccine-matching and post-SARS effect showed substantial trends toward lower elderly excess P&I mortalities in winters with either mismatching vaccines during the post-SARS period or matching vaccines during the pre-SARS period. Importantly, all three excess mortalities were at their highest in May, 2003, when inter-hospital nosocomial infections were peaking. Furthermore, vaccine-mismatched H3N2 viruses circulating in the years with high excess P&I mortality exhibited both a lower amino acid identity percentage of HA1 between vaccine and circulating strains and a higher numbers of variations at epitope B. Our model can help future decision makers to estimate excess P&I mortality effectively, select and test virus strains for antigenic variation, and evaluate public health strategy effectiveness.