Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms

The impact of paleoclimatic changes on body size evolution in marine fishes

General rules are useful tools for understanding how organisms evolve. Cope’s rule (tendency to increase in size over evolutionary time) and Bergmann’s rule (tendency to grow to larger sizes in cooler climates) both relate to body size, an important factor that affects the biology, ecology, and physiology of organisms. These rules are well studied in endotherms but remain poorly understood among ectotherms. Here, we show that paleoclimatic changes strongly shaped the trajectory of body size evolution in tetraodontiform fishes. Their body size evolution is explained by both Cope’s and Bergmann’s rules, highlighting the impact of paleoclimatic changes on aquatic organisms, which rely on their environment for temperature regulation and are likely more susceptible than terrestrial vertebrates to climatic changes.

Body size is an important species trait, correlating with life span, fecundity, and other ecological factors. Over Earth’s geological history, climate shifts have occurred, potentially shaping body size evolution in many clades. General rules attempting to summarize body size evolution include Bergmann’s rule, which states that species reach larger sizes in cooler environments and smaller sizes in warmer environments, and Cope’s rule, which poses that lineages tend to increase in size over evolutionary time. Tetraodontiform fishes (including pufferfishes, boxfishes, and ocean sunfishes) provide an extraordinary clade to test these rules in ectotherms owing to their exemplary fossil record and the great disparity in body size observed among extant and fossil species. We examined Bergmann’s and Cope’s rules in this group by combining phylogenomic data (1,103 exon loci from 185 extant species) with 210 anatomical characters coded from both fossil and extant species. We aggregated data layers on paleoclimate and body size from the species examined, and inferred a set of time-calibrated phylogenies using tip-dating approaches for downstream comparative analyses of body size evolution by implementing models that incorporate paleoclimatic information. We found strong support for a temperature-driven model in which increasing body size over time is correlated with decreasing oceanic temperatures. On average, extant tetraodontiforms are two to three times larger than their fossil counterparts, which otherwise evolved during periods of warmer ocean temperatures. These results provide strong support for both Bergmann’s and Cope’s rules, trends that are less studied in marine fishes compared to terrestrial vertebrates and marine invertebrates.

Demographic, physiological, and genetic factors linked to the poleward range expansion of the snail Nerita yoldii along the shoreline of China

Species range shift is one of the most significant consequences of climate change in the Anthropocene. A comprehensive study, including demographic, physiological, and genetic factors linked to poleward range expansion, is crucial for understanding how the expanding population occupies the new habitat. In the present study, we investigated the demographic, physiological, and genetic features of the intertidal gastropod Nerita yoldii, which has extended its northern limit by ~200 km over the former biogeographic break of the Yangtze River Estuary during recent decades. The neutral SNPs data showed that the new marginal populations formed a distinct cluster established by a few founders. Demographic modelling analysis revealed that the new marginal populations experienced a strong genetic bottleneck followed by recent demographic expansion. Successful expansion that overcame the founder effect might be attributed to its high capacity of rapid population growth and multiple introductions. According to the non-neutral SNPs under diversifying selection, there were high levels of heterozygosity in the new marginal populations, which might be beneficial for adapting to the novel thermal conditions. The common garden experiment showed that the new marginal populations have evolved divergent transcriptomic and physiological responses to heat stress, allowing them to occupy and survive in the novel environment. Lower transcriptional plasticity was observed in the new marginal populations. These results suggest a new biogeographic pattern of N. yoldii has formed with the occurrence of demographic, physiologic, and genetic changes, and emphasize the roles of adaptation of marginal populations during range expansion.

Symbiosis and host responses to heating

Virtually all organisms are colonized by microbes. Average temperatures are rising because of global climate change - accompanied by increases in extreme climatic events and heat shock - and symbioses with microbes may determine species persistence in the 21st century. Although parasite infection typically reduces host upper thermal limits, interactions with beneficial microbes can facilitate host adaptation to warming. The effects of warming on the ecology and evolution of the microbial symbionts remain understudied but are important for understanding how climate change might affect host health and disease. We present a framework for untangling the contributions of symbiosis to predictions of host persistence in the face of global change.

EcoPhysioMechanics: Integrating energetics and biomechanics to understand fish locomotion under climate change

Ecological physiologists and biomechanists have been broadly investigating swimming performance in a diversity of fishes, however the connection between form, function and energetics of locomotion has been rarely evaluated in the same system and under climate change scenarios. In this perspective I argue that working within the framework of 'EcoPhysioMechanics', i.e., integrating energetics and biomechanics tools, to measure locomotor performance and behavior under different abiotic factors, improves our understanding of the mechanisms, limits and costs of movement. To demonstrate how ecophysiomechanics can be applied to locomotor studies, I outline how linking biomechanics and physiology allows us to understand how fishes may modulate their movement to achieve high speeds or reduce the costs of locomotion. I also discuss how the framework is necessary to quantify swimming capacity under climate change scenarios. Finally, I discuss current dearth of integrative studies and gaps in empirical datasets that are necessary to understand fish swimming under changing environments.

Climate variability and aridity modulate the role of leaf shelters for arthropods: A global experiment

Current climate change is disrupting biotic interactions and eroding biodiversity worldwide. However, species sensitive to aridity, high temperatures, and climate variability might find shelter in microclimatic refuges, such as leaf rolls built by arthropods. To explore how the importance of leaf shelters for terrestrial arthropods changes with latitude, elevation, and climate, we conducted a distributed experiment comparing arthropods in leaf rolls versus control leaves across 52 sites along an 11,790 km latitudinal gradient. We then probed the impact of short- versus long-term climatic impacts on roll use, by comparing the relative impact of conditions during the experiment versus average, baseline conditions at the site. Leaf shelters supported larger organisms and higher arthropod biomass and species diversity than non-rolled control leaves. However, the magnitude of the leaf rolls' effect differed between long- and short-term climate conditions, metrics (species richness, biomass, and body size), and trophic groups (predators vs. herbivores). The effect of leaf rolls on predator richness was influenced only by baseline climate, increasing in magnitude in regions experiencing increased long-term aridity, regardless of latitude, elevation, and weather during the experiment. This suggests that shelter use by predators may be innate, and thus, driven by natural selection. In contrast, the effect of leaf rolls on predator biomass and predator body size decreased with increasing temperature, and increased with increasing precipitation, respectively, during the experiment. The magnitude of shelter usage by herbivores increased with the abundance of predators and decreased with increasing temperature during the experiment. Taken together, these results highlight that leaf roll use may have both proximal and ultimate causes. Projected increases in climate variability and aridity are, therefore, likely to increase the importance of biotic refugia in mitigating the effects of climate change on species persistence.

Unifying climate change biology across realms and taxa

A major challenge in modern biology is to understand extinction risk from climate change across all realms. Recent research has revealed that physiological tolerance, behavioral thermoregulation, and small elevation shifts are dominant coping strategies on land, whereas large-scale latitudinal shifts are more important in the ocean. Freshwater taxa may face the highest global extinction risks. Nevertheless, some species in each realm face similar risks because of shared adaptive, dispersal, or physiological tolerances and abilities. Taking a cross-realm perspective offers unique research opportunities because confounding physical factors in one realm are often disaggregated in another realm. Cross-realm, across taxa, and other forms of climate change biology synthesis are needed to advance our understanding of emergent patterns of risk across all life.

Population connectivity and genetic offset in the spawning coral Acropora digitifera in Western Australia

Anthropogenic climate change has caused widespread loss of species biodiversity and ecosystem productivity across the globe, particularly on tropical coral reefs. Predicting the future vulnerability of reef-building corals, the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems, is crucial for cost-effective conservation planning in the Anthropocene. In this study, we combine regional population genetic connectivity and seascape analyses to explore patterns of genetic offset (the mismatch of gene-environmental associations under future climate conditions) in Acropora digitifera across 12 degrees of latitude in Western Australia. Our data revealed a pattern of restricted gene flow and limited genetic connectivity among geographically distant reef systems. Environmental association analyses identified a suite of loci strongly associated with the regional temperature variation. These loci helped forecast future genetic offset in gradient forest and generalised dissimilarity models. These analyses predicted pronounced differences in the response of different reef systems in Western Australia to rising temperatures. Under the most optimistic future warming scenario (RCP 2.6), we predicted a general pattern of increasing genetic offset with latitude. Under the extreme climate scenario (RCP 8.5 in 2090-2100), coral populations at the Ningaloo World Heritage Area were predicted to experience a higher mismatch between current allele frequencies and those required to cope with local environmental change, compared to populations in the inshore Kimberley region. The study suggests complex and spatially heterogeneous patterns of climate-change vulnerability in coral populations across Western Australia, reinforcing the notion that regionally tailored conservation efforts will be most effective at managing coral reef resilience into the future.

Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts

Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet's changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses that depend on these living marine resources. Advances in climate prediction mean that in some regions the drivers of these shifts can be forecast up to a decade ahead, although forecasts of distribution shifts on this critical time-scale, while highly sought after by stakeholders, have yet to materialise. Here, we demonstrate the application of decadal-scale climate predictions to the habitat and distribution of marine fish species. We show statistically significant forecast skill of individual years that outperform baseline forecasts 3-10 years ahead; forecasts of multi-year averages perform even better, yielding correlation coefficients in excess of 0.90 in some cases. We also demonstrate that the habitat shifts underlying conflicts over Atlantic mackerel fishing rights could have been foreseen. Our results show that climate predictions can provide information of direct relevance to stakeholders on the decadal-scale. This tool will be critical in foreseeing, adapting to and coping with the challenges of a changing future climate, particularly in the most ocean-dependent nations and communities.

Intraspecific variability in thermal tolerance: a case study with coastal cutthroat trout

Fish physiological performance is directly regulated by their thermal environment. Intraspecific comparisons are essential to ascertain the vulnerability of fish populations to climate change and to identify which populations may be more susceptible to extirpation and which may be more resilient to continued warming. In this study, we sought to evaluate how thermal performance varies in coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki clarki) across four distinct watersheds in OR, USA. Specifically, we measured oxygen consumption rates in trout from the four watersheds with variable hydrologic and thermal regimes, comparing three ecologically relevant temperature treatments (ambient, annual maximum and novel warm). Coastal cutthroat trout displayed considerable intraspecific variability in physiological performance and thermal tolerance across the four watersheds. Thermal tolerance matched the historical experience: the coastal watersheds experiencing warmer ambient temperatures had higher critical thermal tolerance compared with the interior, cooler Willamette watersheds. Physiological performance varied across all four watersheds and there was evidence of a trade-off between high aerobic performance and broad thermal tolerance. Given the evidence of climate regime shifts across the globe, the uncertainty in both the rate and extent of warming and species responses in the near and long term, a more nuanced approach to the management and conservation of native fish species must be considered.

ChIP-seq assay revealed histone modification H3K9ac involved in heat shock response of the sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus

Heat stress poses an increasing threat for the marine invertebrate Apostichopus japonicus. Histone lysine acetylation is a central chromatin modification for epigenetic regulation of gene expression during stress response. In this study, a genome-wide characterization for acetylated lysine 9 on histone H3 (H3K9ac) binding regions in normal temperature (18 °C) and heat-stress conditions (26 °C) via ChIP-seq were carried out. The results that revealed H3K9ac was an extensive epigenetic modulation in A. japonicus. The GO terms "regulation of transcription, DNA-templated" and "transcription coactivator activity" were significantly enriched in both groups. Particularly, various transcriptional factors (TFs) families showed notable modification of H3K9ac. Differentially acetylated regions (DARs) with H3K9ac modification under heat stress were identified with 24 hyperacetylated and 23 hypoacetylated peaks, respectively. We further examined the transcriptional expression for 13 genes with dysregulated H3K9ac level in the promoter regions by qRT-PCR. Combined H3K9ac ChIP-seq characteristics with the transcriptional expression, 5 up-up genes (ZCCHC3, RPA70, MTRR, β-Gal and PHTF2) and 2 down-down genes (PRPF39 and BSL78_10147) were identified. Surprisingly, the increasing mRNA expression of NECAP1 under heat stress was negatively related to the decreasing H3K9ac level in its promoter region. Our research is the first genome-wide characterization for the epigenetic modification H3K9ac in A. japonicus, and will help to advance the understanding of the roles of H3K9ac in transcriptional regulation under heat-stress condition.

Behaviour broadens thermal safety margins on artificial coastal defences in the tropics

Tropical species are predicted to be among the most vulnerable to climate change as they often live close to their upper limits to thermal tolerance and in many cases, behavioural thermoregulation is required to persist in the thermal extremes of tropical latitudes. In concert with warming temperatures, near-shore species are faced with the additional threat of shoreline hardening, leading to a reduction in microhabitats that can provide thermal refuges. This situation is exemplified in Singapore, which lies almost on the equator and so experiences year-round hot temperatures, and much of its coastline is now seawall. To investigate the thermal ecology of a common intertidal gastropod, Nerita undata, on these artificial structures, we measured thermal conditions on two seawalls, the temperatures of habitats occupied by the snail, and compared these with the snail's thermal tolerance by measuring heart rate and behavioural thermoregulation (as preferred temperature, Tpref). At one of the two seawalls (Tanjong Rimau), temperatures experienced by N. undata exceeded all measures of thermal tolerance in the sun, while at the other (Palawan Beach), they did not. Temperatures in habitats occupied by the snails on the seawalls were similar to their measured Tpref in the laboratory and were lower than all measures of thermal tolerance. Behavioural thermoregulation by the snails, therefore, significantly increased the thermal safety margins of N. undata on the relatively homogenous seawalls in Singapore, and at one of the two seawalls were necessary to allow snails to survive. Accordingly, to facilitate motile species to maintain broad thermal safety margins through behavioural regulation, the provision of additional refuges from thermal stress is recommended on artificial coastal defences such as seawalls.

A stark future for ocean life

Model predicts a mass extinction event in the oceans if climate change is uncurbed.

Identification of supraoptimal temperatures in juvenile blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) using survival, growth rate and scaled energy reserves

For young fishes, growth of somatic tissues and energy reserves are critical steps for survival and progressing to subsequent life stages. When thermal regimes become supraoptimal, routine metabolic rates increase and leave less energy for young fish to maintain fitness-based activities and, in the case of anadromous fishes, less energy to prepare for emigration to coastal habitats. Thus, understanding how energy allocation strategies are affected by thermal regimes in young anadromous fish will help to inform climate-ready management of vulnerable species and their habitat. Blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis) are an anadromous fish species that remain at historically low population levels and are undergoing southern edge-range contraction, possibly due to climate change. We examined the effects of temperature (21°C, 24°C, 27°C, 30°C, 33°C) on survival, growth rate and energy reserves of juveniles collected from the mid-geographic range of the species. We identified a strong negative relationship between temperature and growth rate, resulting in smaller juveniles at high temperatures. We observed reduced survival at both 21°C and 33°C, increased fat and lean mass-at-length at high temperatures, but no difference in energy density. Juveniles were both smaller and contained greater scaled energy reserves at higher temperatures, indicating growth in length is more sensitive to temperature than growth of energy reserves. Currently, mid-geographic range juvenile blueback herring populations may be well suited for local thermal regimes, but continued warming could decrease survival and growth rates. Blueback herring populations may benefit from mitigation actions that maximize juvenile energy resources by increasing the availability of cold refugia and food-rich habitats, as well as reducing other stressors such as hypoxic zones.

Mosaics of climatic stress across species' ranges: tradeoffs cause adaptive evolution to limits of climatic tolerance

Studies in birds and trees show climatic stresses distributed across species' ranges, not only at range limits. Here, new analyses from the butterfly Euphydryas editha reveal mechanisms generating these stresses: geographic mosaics of natural selection, acting on tradeoffs between climate adaptation and fitness traits, cause some range-central populations to evolve to limits of climatic tolerance, while others remain resilient. In one ecotype, selection for predator avoidance drives evolution to limits of thermal tolerance. In a second ecotype, the endangered Bay Checkerspot, selection on fecundity drives evolution to the climate-sensitive limit of ability to complete development within the lifespans of ephemeral hosts, causing routinely high mortality from insect–host phenological asynchrony. The tradeoff between maternal fecundity and offspring mortality generated similar values of fitness on different dates, partly explaining why fecundity varied by more than an order of magnitude. Evolutionary response to the tradeoff rendered climatic variability the main driver of Bay Checkerspot dynamics, and increases in this variability, associated with climate change, were a key factor behind permanent extinction of a protected metapopulation. Finally, we discuss implications for conservation planning of our finding that adaptive evolution can reduce population-level resilience to climate change and generate geographic mosaics of climatic stress.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

The Physiological and Evolutionary Ecology of Sperm Thermal Performance

Ongoing anthropogenic climate change has increased attention on the ecological and evolutionary consequences of thermal variation. Most research in this field has focused on the physiology and behavior of diploid whole organisms. The thermal performance of haploid gamete stages directly tied to reproductive success has received comparatively little attention, especially in the context of the evolutionary ecology of wild (i.e., not domesticated) organisms. Here, we review evidence for the effects of temperature on sperm phenotypes, emphasizing data from wild organisms whenever possible. We find that temperature effects on sperm are pervasive, and that above normal temperatures in particular are detrimental. That said, there is evidence that sperm traits can evolve adaptively in response to temperature change, and that adaptive phenotypic plasticity in sperm traits is also possible. We place results in the context of thermal performance curves, and encourage this framework to be used as a guide for experimental design to maximize ecological relevance as well as the comparability of results across studies. We also highlight gaps in our understanding of sperm thermal performance that require attention to more fully understand thermal adaptation and the consequences of global change.

Post-exercise Hypothermia Varies Between High- and Low-Altitude Populations in the Asiatic Toad (Bufo gargarizans)

Whether and how poikilothermic animals change their thermal performance to cope with global warming are crucial questions to predict the future of biodiversity. Intraspecific comparison among populations that occur in different climatic zones can provide insight into how poikilotherms may alter their thermal performance under a particular climatic event. We compared populations of the Asiatic toad (Bufo gargarizans) from two altitudinal zones (3239 and 926 m above sea level) to explore variations of post-exercise hypothermia, which can lead to lower temperature preference than normal conditions. Common garden experiment was also employed to test plasticity of hypothermic performance in adult toads. As results, exhaustive exercise induced measurable reduction in body temperature for both populations. Furthermore, high-altitude population experienced larger reduction in body temperature than low-altitude conspecifics in both original habitat and common garden conditions. Therefore, low-altitude toads may to enhance their hypothermic reaction if they shift their ranges to higher altitudes to survive warming climate; However, the relatively limited plasticity of hypothermic performance may constraint their adaptative process.

Zooplankton Abundance Reflects Oxygen Concentration and Dissolved Organic Matter in a Seasonally Hypoxic Estuary

Ocean deoxygenation, warming, and acidification resulting from global change and increasing nutrient inputs are major threats to marine ecosystems. Despite this, spatial and temporal patterns of oxygen availability and their impacts on marine life are understudied compared to warming and acidification, particularly in coastal tropical ecosystems. We measured the abundance of major groups of zooplankton in the context of five covarying environmental parameters [temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), dissolved organic matter (DOM), and chlorophyll concentration] in a tropical estuary for one year. Partial least squares demonstrated that environmental conditions explained 20% of the variation in the community and found that temperature, salinity, DO, and DOM were most important (Variable Importance in Projection [VIP] > 0.8). A generalized linear model identified depth, DO, salinity, and chlorophyll as significant main effects, and temperature and DOM were also significant via two-way interactions (p < 0.05). When examined separately, the abundance of each zooplankton group was explained by a slightly different combination of environmental factors, but in all cases DO had large, significant effects, and in most cases DOM or its interactions were also significant. These results demonstrate that the seasonal cycle of hypoxia in this system significantly impacts the abundance of major zooplankton groups and likely also recruitment of benthic fauna through impacts on meroplankton and benthic-pelagic food webs.

Now you see me: "first" records of the greater amberjack Seriola dumerili at Rapa Nui range extension or increased scientific effort?

We report new records of the fisheries-harvested subtropical greater amberjack Seriola dumerili for the south-east Pacific Ocean. Despite local fishers' asserting that three Seriola morphotypes exist in the region, only one species (the yellowtail amberjack Seriola lalandi) was previously scientifically recorded for Rapa Nui (also known as Easter Island). Whilst we present the first "scientific record", S. dumerili, traditional ecological knowledge suggests that this is likely a pre-existing (albeit transient) species of the Rapa Nui ecoregion. Establishing the existing/historic distributional limits of commercially and ecologically valuable species is key for observing climate-driven distribution shifts, and the inclusion of traditional ecological knowledge is particularly important in areas with relatively lower scientific effort.

Temperature and Diet Acclimation Modify the Acute Thermal Performance of the Largest Extant Amphibian

The Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus), one of the largest extant amphibian species, has dramatically declined in the wild. As an ectotherm, it may be further threatened by climate change. Therefore, understanding the thermal physiology of this species should be the priority to formulate related conservation strategies. In this study, the plasticity in metabolic rate and thermal tolerance limits of A. davidianus larvae were studied. Specifically, the larvae were acclimated to three temperature levels (7 °C, cold stress; 15 °C, optimum; and 25 °C, heat stress) and two diet items (red worm or fish fray) for 20 days. Our results indicated that cold-acclimated larvae showed increased metabolic capacity, while warm-acclimated larvae showed a decrease in metabolic capacity. These results suggested the existence of thermal compensation. Moreover, the thermal tolerance windows of cold-acclimated and warm-acclimated larvae shifted to cooler and hotter ranges, respectively. Metabolic capacity is not affected by diet but fish-fed larvae showed superiority in both cold and heat tolerance, potentially due to the input of greater nutrient loads. Overall, our results suggested a plastic thermal tolerance of A. davidianus in response to temperature and diet variations. These results are meaningful in guiding the conservation of this species.

Plasticity to ocean warming is influenced by transgenerational, reproductive, and developmental exposure in a coral reef fish

Global warming is expected to drive some ectothermic species beyond their thermal tolerance in upcoming decades. Phenotypic plasticity, via developmental or transgenerational acclimation, is a critical mechanism for compensation in the face of environmental change. Yet, it remains to be determined if the activation of beneficial phenotypes requires direct exposure throughout development, or if compensation can be obtained just through the experience of previous generations. In this study, we exposed three generations of a tropical damselfish to combinations of current-day (Control) and projected future (+1.5°C) water temperatures. Acclimation was evaluated with phenotypic (oxygen consumption, hepatosomatic index, physical condition) and molecular (liver gene expression) measurements of third-generation juveniles. Exposure of grandparents/parents to warm conditions improved the aerobic capacity of fish regardless of thermal conditions experienced afterwards, representing a true transgenerational effect. This coincided with patterns of gene expression related to inflammation and immunity seen in the third generation. Parental effects due to reproductive temperature significantly affected the physical condition and routine metabolic rate (oxygen consumption) of offspring, but had little impact on gene expression of the F3. Developmental temperature of juveniles, and whether they matched conditions during parental reproduction, had the largest influence on the liver transcriptional program. Using a combination of both phenotypic and molecular approaches, this study highlights how the conditions experienced by both previous and current generations can influence plasticity to global warming in upcoming decades.

Sex-specific thermal tolerance limits in the ditch shrimp Palaemon varians: Eco-evolutionary implications under a warming ocean

As global temperatures continue to rise due to global change, marine heatwaves are also becoming more frequent and intense, impacting marine biodiversity patterns worldwide. Organisms inhabiting shallow water environments, such as the commercially relevant ditch shrimp Palaemon varians, are expected to be the most affected by rising temperatures. Thus, addressing species' thermal ecology and climate extinction-risk is crucial to foster climate-smart conservation strategies for shallow water ecosystems. Here, we estimated sex-specific upper thermal tolerance limits for P. varians via the Critical Thermal Maximum method (CTmax), using loss of equilibrium as endpoint. We further calculated thermal safety margins for males and females and tested for correlations between upper thermal limits and shrimps' body size. To determine sex-biased variation in P. varians' traits (CTmax, weight and length), we compared trait variation between females and males through the coefficient of variation ratio (lnCVR). Females displayed an average CTmax value 1.8% lower than males (CTmax_females = 37.0 °C vs CTmax_males = 37.7 °C). This finding may be related to the larger body size exhibited by females (156% heavier and 39% larger than males), as both length and weight had a significant effect on CTmax. The high energetic investment of females in offspring may also contribute to the differences recorded in thermal tolerance. Overall, organisms with a smaller body-size displayed a greater tolerance to elevated temperature, thus suggesting that smaller individuals may be positively selected in warmer environments. This selection may result in a reduction of size-at-maturity and shifts in sex ratio, given the sexual dimorphism in body size of shrimps. The thermal safety margin of P. varians was narrow (∼2.2 °C for males and ∼1.5 °C for females), revealing the vulnerability of this species to ocean warming and heatwaves.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

OUP accepted manuscript

Animals rely on their sensory systems to inform them of ecologically relevant environmental variation. In the Southern Ocean, the thermal environment has remained between −1.9 and 5 °C for 15 Myr, yet we have no knowledge of how an Antarctic marine organism might sense their thermal habitat as we have yet to discover a thermosensitive ion channel that gates (opens/closes) below 10 °C. Here, we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of transient receptor potential (TRP) channels, which are the primary thermosensors in animals, within cryonotothenioid fishes—the dominant fish fauna of the Southern Ocean. We found cryonotothenioids have a similar complement of TRP channels as other teleosts (∼28 genes). Previous work has shown that thermosensitive gating in a given channel is species specific, and multiple channels act together to sense the thermal environment. Therefore, we combined evidence of changes in selective pressure, gene gain/loss dynamics, and the first sensory ganglion transcriptome in this clade to identify the best candidate TRP channels that might have a functional dynamic range relevant for frigid Antarctic temperatures. We concluded that TRPV1a, TRPA1b, and TRPM4 are the likeliest putative thermosensors, and found evidence of diversifying selection at sites across these proteins. We also put forward hypotheses for molecular mechanisms of other cryonotothenioid adaptations, such as reduced skeletal calcium deposition, sensing oxidative stress, and unusual magnesium homeostasis. By completing a comprehensive and unbiased survey of these genes, we lay the groundwork for functional characterization and answering long-standing thermodynamic questions of thermosensitive gating and protein adaptation to low temperatures.

Predators mitigate the destabilising effects of heatwaves on multitrophic stream communities

Amidst the global extinction crisis, climate change will expose ecosystems to more frequent and intense extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves. Yet, whether predator species loss-a prevailing characteristic of the extinction crisis-will exacerbate the ecological consequences of extreme climatic events remains largely unknown. Here, we show that the loss of predator species can interact with heatwaves to moderate the compositional stability of ecosystems. We exposed multitrophic stream communities, with and without a dominant predator species, to realistic current and future heatwaves and found that heatwaves destabilised algal communities by homogenising them in space. However, this happened only when the predator was absent. Additional heatwave impacts on multiple aspects of stream communities, including changes to the structure of algal and macroinvertebrate communities, as well as total algal biomass and its temporal variability, were not apparent during heatwaves and emerged only after the heatwaves had passed. Taken together, our results suggest that the ecological consequences of heatwaves can amplify over time as their impacts propagate through biological interaction networks, but the presence of predators can help to buffer such impacts. These findings underscore the importance of conserving trophic structure, and highlight the potential for species extinctions to amplify the effects of climate change and extreme events.

Sub-critical limits are viable alternatives to critical thermal limits

Thermal traits are frequently used to explain variation in species distributions, abundance, and sensitivity to climate change. Due to their utility and ease of measurement, critical thermal limits in particular have proliferated across the ecophysiological literature. Critical limit assays can, however, have deleterious or even lethal effects on individuals and there is growing recognition that intermediate metrics of performance can provide a further, nuanced understanding of how species interact with their environments. Meanwhile, the scarcity of data describing sub-critical or voluntary limits, which have been proposed as alternatives to critical limits and can be collected under less extreme conditions, reduces their value in comparative analyses and broad-scale syntheses. To overcome these limitations and determine if sub-critical limits are viable proxies for upper and lower critical thermal limits we measured and compared the critical and sub-critical thermal limits of 2023 ants representing 51 species. Sub-critical limits in isolation were a satisfactory linear predictor for both individual and species critical limits and when species identity was also considered there were substantial gains in variance explained. These gains indicate that a species-specific conversion factor can further improve estimates of critical traits using sub-critical proxies. Sub-critical limits can, therefore, be integrated into broader syntheses of critical limits and confidently used to calculate common ecological metrics, such as warming tolerance, so long as uncertainty in estimates is explicitly acknowledged. Although lower thermal traits exhibited more variation than their upper counterparts, the stronger phylogenetic signal of lower thermal traits indicates that appropriate conversions for lower thermal traits can be inferred from congenerics or other closely related taxa.

Plastic responses of survival and fertility following heat stress in pupal and adult Drosophila virilis

The impact of rising global temperatures on survival and reproduction is putting many species at risk of extinction. In particular, it has recently been shown that thermal effects on reproduction, especially limits to male fertility, can underpin species distributions in insects. However, the physiological factors influencing fertility at high temperatures are poorly understood. Key factors that affect somatic thermal tolerance such as hardening, the ability to phenotypically increase thermal tolerance after a mild heat shock, and the differential impact of temperature on different life stages are largely unexplored for thermal fertility tolerance. Here, we examine the impact of high temperatures on male fertility in the cosmopolitan fruit fly Drosophila virilis. We first determined whether temperature stress at either the pupal or adult life history stage impacts fertility. We then tested the capacity for heat-hardening to mitigate heat-induced sterility. We found that thermal stress reduces fertility in different ways in pupae and adults. Pupal heat stress delays sexual maturity, whereas males heated as adults can reproduce initially following heat stress, but become sterile within seven days. We also found evidence that while heat-hardening in D. virilis can improve high temperature survival, there is no significant protective impact of this same hardening treatment on fertility. These results suggest that males may be unable to prevent the costs of high temperature stress on fertility through heat-hardening, which limits a species' ability to quickly and effectively reduce fertility loss in the face of short-term high temperature events.

Transcriptome analysis provides the first insight into the molecular basis of temperature plasticity in Banggai cardinalfish, Pterapogon kauderni

Banggai cardinalfish, Pterapogon kauderni, is a tropical fish listed as an endangered species by IUCN. Its distribution and survival condition are extremely limited, and the changes of living environment caused by global warming may seriously threaten its geographical distribution. In order to understand the survival temperature range and the potential mechanism of temperature plasticity of P. kauderni, transcriptome analysis was performed under five temperature conditions (18 °C, 22 °C, 26 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C). A total of 432,444,497 clean reads were obtained from the mix tissues of whole head, viscera (except intestine), and muscle. All clean data were spliced into 194,832 unigenes. Compared with 26 °C, 57, 107, 187 and 174 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were obtained at 18 °C, 22 °C, 30 °C and 34 °C, respectively. Gene Ontology (GO) analysis showed the most highly enriched in the DEGs were cellular processes, binding, metabolic processes and biological regulation. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway analysis indicated circadian rhythm, protein processing in endoplasmic reticulum, influenza A and prion disease were significantly enriched. 47 genes that may be related to temperature stress were identified, such as Per1, MLP, IGFBP1, HSP70, HSP90α, HSPA4, DNAJB1, CALR. This is the first RNA-Seq study of P. kauderni. This information should be valuable for further targeted studies on temperature tolerance, thereby assisting the protection and development of P. kauderni.

Feeding preferences of range-shifting and native herbivorous fishes in temperate ecosystems

Temperate reefs are being tropicalized worldwide. In temperate Western Australia, a marine heatwave led to a regime shift from kelp (Ecklonia radiata) dominated to canopy-free reefs, together with an increase in tropical herbivorous fishes that contribute to keeping low kelp abundances and even prevent kelp reestablishment in northern regions. However, whether tropical herbivorous fishes prefer kelps over other seaweeds and/or whether this preference changes with latitude remains untested. Multiple-choice experiments (young kelp vs. other seaweeds) with tropical, subtropical and temperate herbivorous fishes show shifting species-specific preferences and fish-to-fish interference shifting with latitude (assays replicated in two regions four degrees of latitude apart). Against expectations, only the temperate Kyphosus sydneyanus preferred kelp over other seaweeds, but only in the lower latitude region. Siganus fuscescens, the most abundant tropical herbivore in both regions, preferred grazing on turf, suggesting that tropical fish might reduce kelp recruitment by consuming microscopic sporophytes in turf matrix.

Metabolic Responses of Pacific Crown-of-Thorns Sea Stars (Acanthaster sp.) to Acute Warming

AbstractClimate change and population irruptions of crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster sp.) are two of the most pervasive threats to coral reefs. Yet there has been little consideration regarding the synergies between ocean warming and the coral-feeding sub-adult and adult stages of this asteroid. Here we explored the thermosensitivity of the aforementioned life stages by assessing physiological responses to acute warming. Thermal sensitivity was assessed based on the maximal activity of enzymes involved in aerobic (citrate synthase) and anaerobic (lactate dehydrogenase) metabolic pathways, as well as the standard metabolic rate of sub-adult and adult sea stars. In both life stages, citrate synthase activity declined with increasing temperature from 15 °C to 40 °C, with negligible activity occurring >35 °C. On the other hand, lactate dehydrogenase activity increased with temperature from 20 °C to 45 °C, indicating a greater reliance on anaerobic metabolism in a warmer environment. The standard metabolic rate of sub-adult sea stars increased with temperature throughout the testing range (24 °C to 36 °C). Adult sea stars exhibited evidence of thermal stress, with metabolic depression occurring from 33 °C. Here, we demonstrate that crown-of-thorns sea stars are sensitive to warming but that adults, and especially sub-adults, may have some resilience to short-term marine heatwaves in the near future.

Marine phytoplankton functional types exhibit diverse responses to thermal change

Marine phytoplankton generate half of global primary production, making them essential to ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling. Though phytoplankton are phylogenetically diverse, studies rarely designate unique thermal traits to different taxa, resulting in coarse representations of phytoplankton thermal responses. Here we assessed phytoplankton functional responses to temperature using empirically derived thermal growth rates from four principal contributors to marine productivity: diatoms, dinoflagellates, cyanobacteria, and coccolithophores. Using modeled sea surface temperatures for 1950-1970 and 2080-2100, we explored potential alterations to each group's growth rates and geographical distribution under a future climate change scenario. Contrary to the commonly applied Eppley formulation, our data suggest phytoplankton functional types may be characterized by different temperature coefficients (Q₁₀), growth maxima thermal dependencies, and thermal ranges which would drive dissimilar responses to each degree of temperature change. These differences, when applied in response to global simulations of future temperature, result in taxon-specific projections of growth and geographic distribution, with low-latitude coccolithophores facing considerable decreases and cyanobacteria substantial increases in growth rates. These results suggest that the singular effect of changing temperature may alter phytoplankton global community structure, owing to the significant variability in thermal response between phytoplankton functional types.

Why Are Species’ Traits Weak Predictors of Range Shifts?

We examine the evidence linking species’ traits to contemporary range shifts and find they are poor predictors of range shifts that have occurred over decades to a century. We then discuss reasons for the poor performance of traits for describing interspecific variation in range shifts from two perspectives: ( a) factors associated with species’ traits that degrade range-shift signals stemming from the measures used for species’ traits, traits that are typically not analyzed, and the influence of phylogeny on range-shift potential and ( b) issues in quantifying range shifts and relating them to species’ traits due to imperfect detection of species, differences in the responses of altitudinal and latitudinal ranges, and emphasis on testing linear relationships between traits and range shifts instead of nonlinear responses. Improving trait-based approaches requires a recognition that traits within individuals interact in unexpected ways and that different combinations of traits may be functionally equivalent.

An integrated, multi-level analysis of thermal effects on intertidal molluscs for understanding species distribution patterns

Elucidating the physiological mechanisms that underlie thermal stress and discovering how species differ in capacities for phenotypic acclimatization and evolutionary adaptation to this stress is critical for understanding current latitudinal and vertical distribution patterns of species and for predicting their future state in a warming world. Such mechanistic analyses require careful choice of study systems (species and temperature-sensitive traits) and design of laboratory experiments that reflect the complexities of in situ conditions. Here, we critically review a wide range of studies of intertidal molluscs that provide mechanistic accounts of thermal effects across all levels of biological organization - behavioural, organismal, organ level, cellular, molecular, and genomic - and show how temperature-sensitive traits govern distribution patterns and capacities for coping with thermal stress. Comparisons of congeners from different thermal habitats are especially effective means for identifying adaptive variation. We employ these mechanistic analyses to illustrate how species differ in the severity of threats posed by rising temperature. Counterintuitively, we show that some of the most heat-tolerant species may be most threatened by increases in temperatures because of their small thermal safety margins and minimal abilities to acclimatize to higher temperatures. We discuss recent molecular biological and genomic studies that provide critical foundations for understanding the types of evolutionary changes in protein structure, RNA secondary structure, genome content, and gene expression capacities that underlie adaptation to temperature. Duplication of stress-related genes, as found in heat-tolerant molluscs, may provide enhanced capacity for coping with higher temperatures. We propose that the anatomical, behavioural, physiological, and genomic diversity found among intertidal molluscs, which commonly are of critical importance and high abundance in these ecosystems, makes this group of animals a highly appropriate study system for addressing questions about the mechanistic determinants of current and future distribution patterns of intertidal organisms.

Intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance differs between tropical and temperate fishes

How ectothermic animals will cope with global warming is a critical determinant of the ecological impacts of climate change. There has been extensive study of upper thermal tolerance limits among fish species but how intraspecific variation in tolerance may be affected by habitat characteristics and evolutionary history has not been considered. Intraspecific variation is a primary determinant of species vulnerability to climate change, with implications for global patterns of impacts of ongoing warming. Using published critical thermal maximum (CT_max) data on 203 fish species, we found that intraspecific variation in upper thermal tolerance varies according to a species’ latitude and evolutionary history. Overall, tropical species show a lower intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance than temperate species. Notably, freshwater tropical species have a lower variation in tolerance than freshwater temperate species, which implies increased vulnerability to impacts of thermal stress. The extent of variation in CT_max among fish species has a strong phylogenetic signal, which may indicate a constraint on evolvability to rising temperatures in tropical fishes. That is, in addition to living closer to their upper thermal limits, tropical species may have higher sensitivity and lower adaptability to global warming compared to temperate counterparts. This is evidence that freshwater tropical fish communities, worldwide, are especially vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

Thermal Performance Curves Are Shaped by Prior Thermal Environment in Early Life

Understanding links between thermal performance and environmental variation is necessary to predict organismal responses to climate change, and remains an ongoing challenge for ectotherms with complex life cycles. Distinct life stages can differ in thermal sensitivity, experience different environmental conditions as development unfolds, and, because stages are by nature interdependent, environmental effects can carry over from one stage to affect performance at others. Thermal performance may therefore respond to carryover effects of prior thermal environments, yet detailed insights into the nature, strength, and direction of those responses are still lacking. Here, in an aquatic ectotherm whose early planktonic stages (gametes, embryos, and larvae) govern adult abundances and dynamics, we explore the effects of prior thermal environments at fertilization and embryogenesis on thermal performance curves at the end of planktonic development. We factorially manipulate temperatures at fertilization and embryogenesis, then, for each combination of prior temperatures, measure thermal performance curves for survival of planktonic development (end of the larval stage) throughout the performance range. By combining generalized linear mixed modeling with parametric bootstrapping, we formally estimate and compare curve descriptors (thermal optima, limits, and breadth) among prior environments, and reveal carryover effects of temperature at embryogenesis, but not fertilization, on thermal optima at completion of development. Specifically, thermal optima shifted to track temperature during embryogenesis, while thermal limits and breadth remained unchanged. Our results argue that key aspects of thermal performance are shaped by prior thermal environment in early life, warranting further investigation of the possible mechanisms underpinning that response, and closer consideration of thermal carryover effects when predicting organismal responses to climate change.

Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet's specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact.

Interdependence of Thyroid and Corticosteroid Signaling in Vertebrate Developmental Transitions

Post-embryonic acute developmental processes mainly allow the transition from one life stage in a specific ecological niche to the next life stage in a different ecological niche. Metamorphosis, an emblematic type of these post-embryonic developmental processes, has occurred repeatedly and independently in various phylogenetic groups throughout metazoan evolution, such as in cnidarian, insects, molluscs, tunicates, or vertebrates. This review will focus on metamorphoses and developmental transitions in vertebrates, including typical larval metamorphosis in anuran amphibians, larval and secondary metamorphoses in teleost fishes, egg hatching in sauropsids and birth in mammals. Two neuroendocrine axes, the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid and the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal axes, are central players in the regulation of these life transitions. The review will address the molecular and functional evolution of these axes and their interactions. Mechanisms of integration of internal and environmental cues, and activation of these neuroendocrine axes represent key questions in an “eco-evo-devo” perspective of metamorphosis. The roles played by developmental transitions in the innovation, adaptation, and plasticity of life cycles throughout vertebrates will be discussed. In the current context of global climate change and habitat destruction, the review will also address the impact of environmental factors, such as global warming and endocrine disruptors on hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid and hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/interrenal axes, and regulation of developmental transitions.

Sensitivity of marine fish thermal habitat models to fishery data sources

Statistical models built using different data sources and methods can exhibit conflicting patterns. We used the northern stock of black sea bass (Centropristis striata) as a case study to assess the impacts of using different fisheries data sources and laboratory-derived physiological metrics in the development of thermal habitat models for marine fishes. We constructed thermal habitat models using generalized additive models (GAMs) based on various fisheries datasets as input, including the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) bottom trawl surveys, various inshore fisheries-independent trawl surveys (state waters), NEFSC fisheries-dependent observer data, and laboratory-based physiological metrics. We compared each model's GAM response curve and coupled them to historical ocean conditions in the U.S. Northeast Shelf using bias-corrected ocean temperature output from a regional ocean model. Thermal habitat models based on shelf-wide data (NEFSC fisheries-dependent observer data and fisheries-independent spring and fall surveys) explained the most variation in black sea bass presence/absence data at ~15% deviance explained. Models based on a narrower range of sampled thermal habitat from inshore survey data in the Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (NEAMAP) and the geographically isolated Long Island Sound data performed poorly. All models had similar lower thermal limits around 8.5℃, but thermal optima, when present, ranged from 16.7 to 24.8℃. The GAMs could reliably predict habitat from years excluded from model training, but due to strong seasonal temperature fluctuations in the region, could not be used to predict habitat in seasons excluded from training. We conclude that survey data source can greatly impact development and interpretation of thermal habitat models for marine fishes. We suggest that model development be based on data sources that sample the widest range of ocean temperature and physical habitat throughout multiple seasons when possible, and encourage thorough consideration of how data gaps may influence model uncertainty.

Thermal limits in the face of infectious disease: How important are pathogens?

The frequency and severity of both extreme thermal events and disease outbreaks are predicted to continue to shift as a consequence of global change. As a result, species persistence will likely be increasingly dependent on the interaction between thermal stress and pathogen exposure. Missing from the intersection between studies of infectious disease and thermal ecology, however, is the capacity for pathogen exposure to directly disrupt a host's ability to cope with thermal stress. Common sources of variation in host thermal performance, which are likely to interact with infection, are also often unaccounted for when assessing either the vulnerability of species or the potential for disease spread during extreme thermal events. Here, we describe how infection can directly alter host thermal limits, to a degree that exceeds the level of variation commonly seen across species large geographic distributions and that equals the detrimental impact of other ecologically relevant stressors. We then discuss various sources of heterogeneity within and between populations that are likely to be important in mediating the impact that infection has on variation in host thermal limits. In doing so we highlight how infection is a widespread and important source of variation in host thermal performance, which will have implications for both the persistence and vulnerability of species and the dynamics and transmission of disease in a more thermally extreme world.

Thinking about the Biodiversity Loss in This Changing World

Extinction of species has been a recurrent phenomenon in the history of our planet, but it was generally outweighed in the course of quite a long geological time by the appearance of new species, except, especially, for the five geologically short times when the so-called “Big Five” mass extinctions occurred. Could the current decline in biodiversity be considered as a signal of an ongoing, human-driven sixth mass extinction? This note briefly examines some issues related to: (i) The hypothesized current extinction rate and the magnitude of contemporary global biodiversity loss; (ii) the challenges of comparing them to the background extinction rate and the magnitude of the past Big Five mass extinction events; (iii) briefly considering the effects of the main anthropogenic stressors on ecosystems, including the risk of the emergence of pandemic diseases. A comparison between the Pleistocene fauna dynamics with the present defaunation process and the cascading effects of recent anthropogenic actions on ecosystem structure and functioning suggests that habitat degradation, ecosystem fragmentation, and alien species introduction are important stressors increasing the negative impact on biodiversity exerted by anthropogenic-driven climate changes and their connected effects. In addition, anthropogenic ecological stressors such as urbanization, landscapes, and wildlife trade, creating new opportunities for virus transmission by augmenting human contact with wild species, are among the main factors triggering pandemic diseases.

Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100

Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through different emission scenarios to 2100. We quantified the sea surface environment based on model estimates of carbonate chemistry and temperature. Between 1800 and 2000, no gridpoints on the ocean surface were estimated to have experienced an extreme degree of global disappearance or novelty. In other words, the majority of environmental shifts since 1800 were not novel, which is consistent with evidence that marine species have been able to track shifting environments via dispersal. However, between 2000 and 2100 under Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 projections, 10-82% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global novelty. Additionally, 35-95% of the surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global disappearance. These upward estimates of climate novelty and disappearance are larger than those predicted for terrestrial systems. Without mitigation, many species will face rapidly disappearing or novel climates that cannot be outpaced by dispersal and may require evolutionary adaptation to keep pace.

Late-stage pregnancy reduces upper thermal tolerance in a live-bearing fish

Upper thermal limits are considered a key determinant of a population's ability to persist in the face of extreme heat events. However, these limits differ considerably among individuals within a population, and the mechanisms underlying this differential sensitivity are not well understood. Upper thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms is thought to be determined by a mismatch between oxygen supply and the increased metabolic demands associated with warmer waters. As such, tolerance is expected to decline during reproduction given the heightened oxygen demand for gamete production and maintenance. Among live-bearing species, upper thermal tolerance of reproductive adults may decline even further after fertilization due to the cost of meeting the increasing oxygen demands of developing embryos. We examined the upper thermal tolerance of live-bearing female Trinidadian guppies at different stages of reproduction and found that critical thermal maximum was similar during the egg yolking and early embryos stage but then declined by almost 0.5 °C during late pregnancy when oxygen demands are the greatest. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that oxygen limitation sets thermal limits and show that reproduction is associated with a decline in upper thermal tolerance.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Investigating links between thermal tolerance and oxygen supply capacity in shark neonates from a hyperoxic tropical environment

Temperature and oxygen limit the distribution of marine ectotherms. Haematological traits underlying blood-oxygen carrying capacity are thought to be correlated with thermal tolerance in certain fishes, and this relationship is hypothesised to be explained by oxygen supply capacity. We tested this hypothesis using reef shark neonates as experimental models because they live near their upper thermal limits and are physiologically sensitive to low oxygen conditions. We first described in situ associations between temperature and oxygen at the study site (Moorea, French Polynesia) and found that the habitats for reef shark neonates (Carcharhinus melanopterus and Negaprion acutidens) were hyperoxic at the maximum recorded temperatures. Next, we tested for in situ associations between thermal habitat characteristics and haematological traits of neonates. Contrary to predictions, we only demonstrated a negative association between haemoglobin concentration and maximum habitat temperatures in C. melanopterus. Next, we tested for ex situ associations between critical thermal maximum (CT_Max) and haematological traits, but only demonstrated a negative association between haematocrit and CT_Max in C. melanopterus. Finally, we measured critical oxygen tension (p_crit) ex situ and estimated its temperature sensitivity to predict oxygen-dependent values of CT_Max. Estimated temperature sensitivity of p_crit was similar to reported values for sharks and skates, and predicted values for CT_Max equalled maximum habitat temperatures. These data demonstrate unique associations between haematological traits and thermal tolerance in a reef shark that are likely not explained by oxygen supply capacity. However, a relationship between oxygen supply capacity and thermal tolerance remains to be demonstrated empirically.

Title: Characterizing environmental stress responses of aposymbiotic Astrangia poculata to divergent thermal challenges

Anthropogenic climate change threatens corals globally and both high and low temperatures are known to induce coral bleaching. However, coral stress responses across wide thermal breadths remain understudied. Disentangling the role of symbiosis on the stress response in obligately symbiotic corals is challenging because this response is inherently coupled with nutritional stress. Here, we leverage aposymbiotic colonies of the facultatively symbiotic coral, Astrangia poculata, which lives naturally with and without its algal symbionts, to examine how broad thermal challenges influence coral hosts in the absence of symbiosis. A. poculata were collected from their northern range limit and thermally challenged in two independent 16-day common garden experiments (heat and cold challenge) and behavioral responses to food stimuli and genome-wide gene expression profiling (TagSeq) were performed. Both thermal challenges elicited significant reductions in polyp extension. However, there were five times as many differentially expressed genes (DEGs) under cold challenge compared to heat challenge. Despite an overall stronger response to cold challenge, there was significant overlap in DEGs between thermal challenges. We contrasted these responses to a previously identified module of genes associated with the environmental stress response (ESR) in tropical reef-building corals. Cold challenged corals exhibited a pattern consistent with more severe stressors while the heat challenge response was consistent with lower intensity stressors. Given that these responses were observed in aposymbiotic colonies, many genes previously implicated in ESRs in tropical symbiotic species may represent the coral host's stress response in or out of symbiosis.