Psychosis, Delusions and the "Jumping to Conclusions" Reasoning Bias: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Shame and the psychosis continuum: A systematic review of the literature

OBJECTIVES

Shame is increasingly implicated in the development and maintenance of several psychological problems including psychosis. The aim of the current paper was to review the research literature concerning the relationship between shame and the psychosis continuum, examining the nature and direction of this relationship.

METHOD

Systematic searches of databases PsycINFO, Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science (from the earliest available database date until November 2016) were undertaken to identify papers that examined the relationship between shame and psychosis or psychotic experiences.

RESULTS

A total of 20 eligible papers were identified. Risk of bias assessment identified methodological shortcomings across the research in relation to small, unrepresentative samples and failure to control for confounding variables. Narrative synthesis suggested positive associations between shame and paranoia (n = 10, r = .29-.62), shame and psychosis (n = 1, r = .40), and shame and affiliation with voices (n = 1, β = .26), and suggested that shame was greater in those with psychosis compared to controls (n = 4, d = 0.76-1.16).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, several studies provide partial support for the theory that shame is an important factor in relation to psychotic experiences in both clinical and non-clinical populations, particularly paranoia. However, the predominance of cross-sectional designs prevents any conclusions being drawn concerning the temporal nature of associations. Additional research is necessary to further delineate the role of shame in relation to specific psychotic experiences such as voice-hearing. Longitudinal research is particularly needed to help establish the directionality and temporal aspects of effects.

PRACTITIONER POINTS

Research indicates moderate-to-strong positive associations between shame and psychotic experiences in the existing literature. The results provide preliminary evidence that shame may play a role in relation to psychosis and, more specifically, paranoia. Findings should be interpreted with caution due to many disparities across the studies reviewed and methodological shortcomings (e.g., small sample sizes). It is not currently possible to determine causality or direction of effect due to the cross-sectional design of all existing studies.

Inflexibility of beliefs and jumping to conclusions in active schizophrenia

Jumping to conclusions (JTC) has been questioned as sufficient cognitive bias for the onset, maintenance, and severity of delusions compared to the bias of inflexibility of beliefs. The WIT (What is this?) test was designed to evaluate JTC and its capacity for classifying participants into a group of patients with active schizophrenia and a comparison group. It was also attempted to determine whether the presence/absence of answer choices, considered a measure of induced inflexibility of beliefs, influences decision-making and is related to the tendency to repeat the first decision, or spontaneous inflexibility of beliefs. The sample was made up of 160 participants, 80 patients with schizophrenia diagnosed at hospital admission and 80 healthy controls. The Beads Task and the WIT test were administered. The WIT classified the participants reasonably well (82.7%) compared to the Beads Task (86.3%). The presence of answer choices favored JTC (d = 0.33), decreasing the number of lines necessary to make a decision (d = 1.78), and influencing keeping to the original answer (d = 1.36), in interaction with the group (d = 0.42). The WIT test overcame some limitations of the Beads Task. The presence/absence of answer choices influenced decision-making and how thinking was flexibilized, more clearly in the case of controls.

Assessing analytic and intuitive reasoning using the cognitive reflection test in young patients with schizophrenia

Cognitive biases may contribute to the formation and maintenance of positive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia. However, cognitive reflection (i.e., the ability to use analytical thinking to override intuitive responses) has not been explicitly examined in schizophrenia patients using the cognitive reflection test (CRT). Using the CRT, we examined the degree of analytical and intuitive reasoning employed during problem solving in patients with schizophrenia versus healthy controls. Fifty-eight outpatients with schizophrenia and fifty-eight age- and sex-matched healthy controls (18-35 years of age) participated in this study. In addition to CRT performance, neurocognition, apathy, impulsivity, depression, insight, and clinical symptoms were evaluated. Patients with schizophrenia produced significantly fewer analytical responses (U = 1167.00, p<0.05) and more intuitive responses (U = 1273.50, p<0.05) compared to healthy controls. Patients without significant cognitive impairment also produced fewer analytical responses compared to controls (U = 894.50, p<0.05). Among patients, analytical thinking was positively correlated with working memory (r = 0.27, p<0.05), and affective symptoms (r = 0.31, p<0.05). Analytical reasoning was not significantly correlated with positive symptoms, avolition, or impulsivity. Patients with schizophrenia demonstrate less analytical and more intuitive reasoning while problem solving compared to healthy controls. This reduction in cognitive reflection is not significantly explained by global cognitive impairment or motivational deficits.

Why check? A meta-analysis of checking in obsessive-compulsive disorder: Threat vs. distrust of senses

Compulsive checking is the most common ritual among individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). Yet, other than uncertainty, the variables prompting checking are not fully understood. Laboratory studies suggest that task conditions - whether threatening (anxiety-relevant) or neutral, and task type - whether requiring perceptual or reasoning decision-making - may be influential. The purpose of our meta-analysis was to compare OCD participants and healthy controls on experimental tasks involving uncertainty in which a behavioral measure of checking was obtained. Four databases were searched. Twenty-two studies met the inclusion criteria, including 43 conditions comparing 663 OCD participants to 614 healthy controls. Due to the dependent structure of the data a robust variance estimation analysis approach was used. Overall effects were similar for neutral and threatening conditions. However, OCD participants responded with greater checking compared to controls on perceptual tasks, but not on reasoning tasks. Results support previous reports suggesting that OCD checking can be observed in neutral conditions, possibly posing as a risk factor for a checking vicious cycle. In addition, our results support OCD models which focus on checking as stemming from interference with automatic processes and distrust of sensory modalities.

Mindfulness Mediates the Effect of a Psychological Online Intervention for Psychosis on Self-Reported Hallucinations: A Secondary Analysis of Voice Hearers From the EviBaS Trial

BACKGROUND

Psychological online interventions (POIs) could represent a promising approach to narrow the treatment gap in psychosis but it remains unclear whether improving mindfulness functions as a mechanism of change in POIs. For the present study, we examined if mindfulness mediates the effect of a comprehensive POI on distressing (auditory) hallucinations.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis on voice hearers (n = 55) from a randomized controlled trial evaluating a POI for psychosis (EviBaS; trial registration NCT02974400, clinicaltrials.gov). The POI includes a module on mindfulness and we only considered POI participants in our analyses who completed the mindfulness module (n = 16).

RESULTS

Participants who completed the mindfulness module reported higher mindfulness (p = 0.015) and lower hallucinations (p = 0.001) at post assessment, compared to controls, but there was no effect on distress by voices (p = 0.598). Mindfulness mediated the POI's effect on hallucinations (b = -1.618, LLCI = -3.747, ULCI = -0.054) but not on distress by voices (b = -0.057, LLCI = -0.640, ULCI = 0.915).

LIMITATIONS AND DISCUSSION

Completion of the mindfulness module was not randomized. Hence, we cannot draw causal inferences. Even if we assumed causality, it remains unclear which contents of the POI could have resulted in increased mindfulness and reduced hallucinations, as participants completed other modules as well. In addition, confounding variables could explain the mediation and the sample size was small. Nonetheless, the overall pattern of results indicates that the POI is likely to improve mindfulness, and that increased mindfulness could partially explain the POI's efficacy.

The efficacy of extended metacognitive training for psychosis: A randomized controlled trial

This study investigated the efficacy of 10-module metacognitive training (MCT) among Japanese patients with schizophrenia by conducting a multicenter randomized controlled trial to test the influence of the most recent and extended version of MCT on positive symptoms. A six-center, randomized, assessor-blind, controlled trial between "treatment as usual" (TAU) and TAU + MCT was conducted. Fifty inpatients and outpatients with schizophrenia, schizotypal, and delusional disorders (ICD 10) were enrolled, then randomly assigned to TAU (n = 26) or TAU + MCT (n = 24). Assessments were made at baseline, after six weeks, immediately posttreatment, and 1-month post-treatment. The primary outcome was positive symptom score, as measured by the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). General assessment of functioning (GAF) and measures of cognitive biases were secondary outcomes. Completion at post-treatment (10 weeks later) and 1-month follow-up was high-TAU + MCT, n = 22 (91.67%) and TAU, n = 23 (88.46%). The severity of PANSS positive symptoms declined significantly in the TAU + MCT treatment group compared with the TAU group. GAF also showed significantly greater improvement in the TAU + MCT group compared with the TAU group. There was also a trend for greater efficacy of MCT on cognitive biases. In conclusion, this study provides support for the efficacy of 10 module MCT concerning positive symptomatology (especially, delusion) and general functioning.

Examining associations between two different jumping to conclusions scores with positive schizotypy and recent distress

Introduction: Jumping to conclusions is associated with delusions. It is unclear whether positive schizotypy, which refers to delusion-like and hallucination-like symptoms, is associated with jumping to conclusions. Relatedly, the relative validity of two jumping to conclusions scores, extreme responding and draws to decision, is unclear, particularly whether extreme responding (responding after one or two draws) reflects the same bias as decreased draws to decision on non-extreme responding trials.Methods: Extreme positive schizotypy individuals with increased psychosis risk (n = 69) and controls (n = 95) completed the Probabilistic Reasoning Task and reported on recent distress, which was previously associated with jumping to conclusions. We calculated extreme responding, draws to decision (number of draws), and draws to decision/non-extreme responding (number of draws on trials with three or more draws).Results: Positive schizotypy was associated with extreme responding, but not draws to decision/non-extreme responding. Furthermore, draws to decision and draws to decision/non-extreme responding were associated with recent distress, whereas extreme responding was not.Conclusion: Positive schizotypy was specifically associated with extreme responding and not draws to decision/non-extreme responding, which suggests that the nature of extreme responding and of draws to decision might be different. This could have relevance for assessing and treating jumping to conclusions.

The Mediating Role of Stress in the Relationship Between Attention to Threat Bias and Psychotic-Like Experiences Depends on Coping Strategies

AIM

Recent studies have provided evidence that enhanced stress level is associated with the increase of psychotic symptoms in both clinical and non-clinical populations. It has also been demonstrated that cognitive biases contribute to psychotic experiences. However, it remains unclear whether the effect of cognitive biases and perceived stress on psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) is influenced by coping methods. In the present study we examined whether the relationship linking cognitive biases with PLEs is mediated by the level of stress and whether particular coping methods modify the relationship between stress and PLEs.

METHODS

The study sample consisted of 290 non-clinical subjects; study variables were assessed by questionnaires. Moderated mediation analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Perceived stress was found to serve as a partial mediator in the relationship linking attention to threat (ATB) and external attribution biases (ETB) with psychotic-like experiences. Also, moderated mediation analysis revealed that the indirect effect of attention to threat bias on positive and depressive symptoms of psychotic-like experiences via perceived stress was stronger at higher levels of distraction seeking coping. Moreover, the indirect effect of ATB on depressive symptoms was moderated by task-oriented coping and emotion-oriented coping. Task-oriented coping also moderated the indirect effect of ETB on depression.

CONCLUSION

The findings imply that both perceived stress and coping styles are important factors affecting the association between cognitive biases and psychotic-like experiences.

Stress and cognitive biases in schizotypy: A two-site study of bias against disconfirmatory evidence and jumping to conclusions

The dysfunctional cognitive and reasoning biases which underpin psychotic symptoms are likely to present prior to the onset of a diagnosable disorder and should therefore be detectable along the psychosis continuum in individuals with schizotypal traits. Two reasoning biases, Bias Against Disconfirmatory Evidence (BADE) and Jumping to Conclusions (JTC), describe how information is selected and weighed under conditions of uncertainty during decision making. It is likely that states such as elevated stress exacerbates JTC and BADE in individuals with high schizotypal traits vulnerable to displaying these information gathering styles. Therefore, we evaluated whether stress and schizotypy interacted to predict these reasoning biases using separate samples from the US (JTC) and England (BADE). Generally speaking, schizotypal traits and stress were not independently associated with dysfunctional reasoning biases. However, across both studies, the interaction between schizotypy traits and stress significantly predicted reasoning biases such that increased stress was associated with increased reasoning biases, but only for individuals low in schizotypal traits. These patterns were observed for positive schizotypal traits (in both samples), for negative traits (in the England sample only), but not for disorganization traits. For both samples, our findings suggest that the presence of states such as stress is associated with, though not necessarily dysfunctional, reasoning biases in individuals with low schizotypy. These reasoning biases seemed, in some ways, relatively immutable to stress in individuals endorsing high levels of positive schizotypal traits.

Dynamic relationships between emotional distress, persecutory ideation, and metacognition in schizophrenia

OBJECTIVE

Determine whether metacognitive capacity (i.e., a range of abilities that involve recognition, reflection, and integration of mental states) influences the relationships between emotional distress and persecutory ideation (PI).

METHODS

The present study examined emotional distress, metacognition and PI in a sample (n = 337) of individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and clinician-rated PI. Pearson and partial correlations were used to examine relationships between variables, as well as between-subjects analysis of variances to compare groups characterized based on emotional distress and persecutory ideation scores.

RESULTS

While emotional distress and PI are associated with one another, metacognition is negatively associated with PI and positively associated with emotional distress. Subgroup comparisons demonstrated that individuals with high emotional distress and low PI had significantly higher metacognitive capacity than those elevated in PI or reduced in both emotional distress and PI.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest metacognitive capacity may relate to improved awareness of distress and reduced PI.

Effects of Metacognitive Training on Cognitive Insight in a Sample of Patients with Schizophrenia

Metacognitive training (MCT) is a group intervention that addresses cognitive biases and distortions that could help maintain delusions and hallucinations in people with schizophrenia. This program has proven its effectiveness in reducing the symptoms, but its impact on cognitive insight has scarcely been investigated. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the program’s impact on cognitive insight in patients with long-term schizophrenia. A sample of 22 patients with schizophrenia was divided into two groups: one received 16 sessions of MCT (n = 11), while the other received the usual treatment (n = 11). They were assessed using the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale which measures two components, self-reflection and self-certainty, and the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). The experimental group showed high levels of adherence, an increase in self-reflection, and a decrease in self-assurance levels as hypothesized. We found statistically significant differences between the control and experimental groups in excitation, hostility, positive symptomatology total score, hallucinatory behavior, and suspicion. In the usual treatment group, a non-significant decrease in positive symptoms was also observed. The findings showed that the implementation of the MCT program in real clinical settings can contribute to an improvement in the metacognitive ability and symptomatology of people with schizophrenia.

Jumping to conclusions in persistent pain using a somatosensory modification of the beads task

BACKGROUND

There is theoretical and empirical evidence that persistent pain occurs because of a distortion in top-down perceptual processes. 'Jumping to conclusions' (JTC) tasks, such as the beads task, purportedly capture these processes and have yet to be studied in people with chronic pain. However, the beads task uses visual stimuli, whereas tasks involving processing in the somatosensory domain seem at least more face valid in this population. This study uses a novel somatosensory adaptation of the beads task to explore whether a JTC reasoning style is more common in people with persistent pain compared controls.

METHODS

30 persistent pain patients and 30 age-, gender- and education-matched controls completed the visual beads JTC task and a novel somatosensory version of the JTC task that used tactile stimuli (vibrations to the fingertip).

FINDINGS

Patients with persistent pain showed a 'jumping to conclusions' reasoning style on both tasks compared to the control group and there was no significant difference in the effect sizes on the two tasks.

INTERPRETATION

This preliminarily study demonstrated that individuals with persistent pain show a JTC reasoning style to both visual and somatosensory stimuli. Future research should focus on establishing how or whether this bias directly influences the experience of persistent pain.

Increased structural connectivity of the medial forebrain bundle in schizophrenia spectrum disorders is associated with delusions of paranoid threat and grandiosity

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Increased FA of bilateral slMFB can be found in delusional SSD-patients.

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Findings are supported by a psychopathological model of paranoia and grandiosity.

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Findings are in line with a model of underlying network physiology (slMFB).

In many cases delusions in schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) are driven by strong emotions such as feelings of paranoia or grandiosity. We refer to these extreme emotional experiences as psychotic affectivity. We hypothesized that increased structural connectivity of the supero-lateral medial forebrain bundle (slMFB), a major tract of the reward system, is associated with delusional psychotic affectivity. Forty-six patients with SSD and 44 healthy controls (HC) underwent diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI)-scans. The slMFB and a comparison tract (corticospinal tract) were reconstructed using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI)-based tractography. Fractional anisotropy (FA) was sampled across the tracts. We used a mixed-model analyses of variance controlling for age and gender to compare FA of bilateral slMFB between SSD-patients and HC. Correlations of FA of bilateral slMFB and the PANSS-positive item delusions were calculated. In addition, FA was compared between three clinically homogeneous SSD-subgroups in terms of psychotic affectivity (severe, mild and no PA, sPA, mPA, nPA) and HC. FA of the slMFB did not differ between all SSD-patients and HC. In SSD-patients there was a positive correlation between delusions and FA in bilateral slMFB. Likewise, SSD-subgroups of psychotic affectivity and HC differed significantly in FA of the slMFB. Results were driven by higher FA in the right slMFB in sPA as compared to nPA and to HC. There was no significant effect for the comparison tract. In conclusion, increased structural connectivity of the slMFB may underlie delusional experiences of paranoia and grandiosity in SSD.

Jumping to conclusions at first onset of psychosis predicts longer admissions, more compulsory admissions and police involvement over the next 4 years: the GAP study

BACKGROUND

Jumping to conclusions (JTC), which is the proneness to require less information before forming beliefs or making a decision, has been related to formation and maintenance of delusions. Using data from the National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre Genetics and Psychosis (GAP) case-control study of first-episode psychosis (FEP), we set out to test whether the presence of JTC would predict poor clinical outcome at 4 years.

METHODS

One-hundred and twenty-three FEP patients were assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS), Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) and the probabilistic reasoning 'Beads' Task at the time of recruitment. The sample was split into two groups based on the presence of JTC bias. Follow-up data over an average of 4 years were obtained concerning clinical course and outcomes (remission, intervention of police, use of involuntary treatment - the Mental Health Act (MHA) - and inpatient days).

RESULTS

FEP who presented JTC at baseline were more likely during the follow-up period to be detained under the MHA [adjusted OR 15.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.92-83.54, p = 0.001], require intervention by the police (adjusted OR 14.95, 95% CI 2.68-83.34, p = 0.002) and have longer admissions (adjusted IRR = 5.03, 95% CI 1.91-13.24, p = 0.001). These associations were not accounted for by socio-demographic variables, IQ and symptom dimensions.

CONCLUSIONS

JTC in FEP is associated with poorer outcome as indicated and defined by more compulsion police intervention and longer periods of admission. Our findings raise the question of whether the implementation of specific interventions to reduce JTC, such as Metacognition Training, may be a useful addition in early psychosis intervention programmes.

Capturing behavioral indicators of persecutory ideation using mobile technology

Most existing measures of persecutory ideation (PI) rely on infrequent in-person visits, and this limits their ability to assess rapid changes or real-world functioning. Mobile health (mHealth) technology may address these limitations. Little is known about passively sensed behavioral indicators associated with PI. In the current study, sixty-two participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders completed momentary assessments of PI on a smartphone that also passively collected behavioral data for one year. Results suggested that PI was prevalent (n = 50, 82% of sample) but had infrequent incidence (25.2% of EMA responses). PI was also associated with changes in several passively sensed variables, including decreases in distance traveled (M_kilometers = -1.20, SD = 18.88), time spent in a vehicle (M_minutes = -4.15, SD = 49.59), length of outgoing phone calls (M_minutes = -0.79, SD = 13.13), time spent proximal to human speech (M_minutes = -6.26, SD = 153.03), and an increase in time sitting still (M_minutes = 4.04, SD = 94.69). The present study suggests changes associated with PI may be detectable by passive sensors, including reductions in moving or traveling, and time spent around others or in self-initiated phone conversations. These constructs might constitute risk for PI.

Nucleus accumbens activation is linked to salience in social decision making

Aberrant salience may explain hasty decision making and psychotic symptoms in schizophrenia. In healthy individuals, final decisions in probabilistic reasoning tasks are related to Nucleus accumbens (Nacc) activation. However, research investigating the Nacc in social decision making is missing. Our study aimed at investigating the role of the Nacc for social decision making and its link to (aberrant) salience attribution. 47 healthy individuals completed a novel social jumping-to-conclusion (JTC) fMRI-paradigm, showing morphed faces simultaneously expressing fear and happiness. Participants decided on the 'current' emotion after each picture, and on the 'general' emotion of series of faces. Nacc activation was stronger during final decisions than in previous trials without a decision, particularly in fear rather than happiness series. A JTC-bias was associated with higher Nacc activation for last fearful, but not last happy faces. Apparently, mechanisms underlying probabilistic reasoning are also relevant for social decision making. The pattern of Nacc activation suggests salience, not reward, drives the final decision. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that aberrant salience might also explain social-cognitive deficits in schizophrenia.

Reasoning bias, working memory performance and a transdiagnostic phenotype of affective disturbances and psychotic experiences in the general population

BACKGROUND

The jumping to conclusions (JTC) reasoning bias and decreased working memory performance (WMP) are associated with psychosis, but associations with affective disturbances (i.e. depression, anxiety, mania) remain inconclusive. Recent findings also suggest a transdiagnostic phenotype of co-occurring affective disturbances and psychotic experiences (PEs). This study investigated whether JTC bias and decreased WMP are associated with co-occurring affective disturbances and PEs.

METHODS

Data were derived from the second Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-2). Trained interviewers administered the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) at three time points in a general population sample (N = 4618). The beads and digit-span task were completed to assess JTC bias and WMP, respectively. CIDI was used to measure affective disturbances and an add-on instrument to measure PEs.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals with neither affective disturbances nor PEs, the JTC bias was more likely to occur in individuals with co-occurring affective disturbances and PEs [moderate psychosis (1-2 PEs): adjusted relative risk ratio (RRR) 1.17, 95% CI 0.98-1.41; and high psychosis (3 or more PEs or psychosis-related help-seeking behaviour): adjusted RRR 1.57, 95% CI 1.19-2.08], but not with affective disturbances and PEs alone, whereas decreased WMP was more likely in all groups. There was some evidence of a dose-response relationship, as JTC bias and decreased WMP were more likely in individuals with affective disturbances as the level of PEs increased or help-seeking behaviour was reported.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that JTC bias and decreased WMP may contribute to a transdiagnostic phenotype of co-occurring affective disturbances and PEs.

Autism and psychosis as diametrical disorders of embodiment

Humans have evolved an elaborate system of self-consciousness, self-identity, self-agency, and self-embodiment that is grounded in specific neurological structures including an expanded insula. Instantiation of the bodily self has been most-extensively studied via the 'rubber hand illusion', whereby parallel stimulation of a hidden true hand, and a viewed false hand, leads to the felt belief that the false hand is one's own. Autism and schizophrenia have both long been regarded as conditions centrally involving altered development of the self, but they have yet to be compared directly with regard to the self and embodiment. Here, we synthesize the embodied cognition literature for these and related conditions, and describe evidence that these two sets of disorders exhibit opposite susceptibilities from typical individuals to the rubber hand illusion: reduced on the autism spectrum and increased in schizophrenia and other psychotic-affective conditions. Moreover, the opposite illusion effects are mediated by a consilient set of associated phenomena, including empathy, interoception, anorexia risk and phenotypes, and patterns of genetic correlation. Taken together, these findings: (i) support the diametric model of autism and psychotic-affective disorders, (ii) implicate the adaptive human system of self-embodiment, and its neural bases, in neurodevelopmental disorders, and suggest new therapies and (iii) experimentally ground Bayesian predictive coding models with regard to autism compared with psychosis. Lay summary: Humans have evolved a highly developed sense of self and perception of one's own body. The 'rubber hand illusion' can be used to test individual variation in sense of self, relative to connection with others. We show that this illusion is reduced in autism spectrum disorders, and increased in psychotic and mood disorders. These findings have important implications for understanding and treatment of mental disorders.

Does uncertainty breed conviction? On the possible role of compensatory conviction in jumping to conclusions and overconfidence in psychosis

Background: Jumping to conclusions (JTC) and overconfidence in errors are well established in individuals with a liability to psychosis. Experimental research suggests that subjecting individuals to dilemmas and doubt prompts a subsequent hardening of attitudes and may foster delusion-like convictions. For the present study, we examined whether this compensatory conviction process is exaggerated in individuals with a liability to psychosis and might in part explain JTC and overconfidence. Methods: A large sample of participants from the general population were screened for psychotic experiences with the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences scale (CAPE) and then randomly allocated to either a condition in which they should experience doubt or a control condition. Participants (final sample, n = 650) were then tested on JTC and overconfidence. Results: Participants who scored high on the positive subscale of the CAPE made fewer draws to decision, showed greater confidence, and made more errors relative to low scorers. Yet, none of the parameters was modulated by experimental condition. Conclusions: Our results at present do not support the idea that JTC is elevated by a prior experience of a dilemma or doubt. Yet, this possibility should not be entirely dismissed as the presumed process may take time to evolve and perhaps needs to be more pervasive.

Dual-process theory, conflict processing, and delusional belief

Many reasoning biases that may contribute to delusion formation and/or maintenance are common in healthy individuals. Research indicating that reasoning in the general population proceeds via analytic processes (which depend upon working memory and support hypothetical thought) and intuitive processes (which are autonomous and independent of working memory) may therefore help uncover the source of these biases. Consistent with this possibility, recent studies imply that impaired conflict processing might reduce engagement in analytic reasoning, thereby producing reasoning biases and promoting delusions in individuals with schizophrenia. Progress toward understanding this potential pathway to delusions is currently impeded by ambiguity about whether any of these deficits or biases is necessary or sufficient for the formation and maintenance of delusions. Resolving this ambiguity requires consideration of whether particular cognitive deficits or biases in this putative pathway have causal primacy over other processes that may also participate in the causation of delusions. Accordingly, the present manuscript critically evaluates whether impaired conflict processing is the primary initiating deficit in the generation of reasoning biases that may promote the development and/or maintenance of delusions. Suggestions for future research that may elucidate mechanistic pathways by which reasoning deficits might engender and maintain delusions are subsequently offered.

The Effect of Reducing the "Jumping to Conclusions" Bias on Treatment Decision-Making Capacity in Psychosis: A Randomized Controlled Trial With Mediation Analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based psychological interventions to support treatment decision-making capacity (capacity) in psychosis do not currently exist. This study sought to establish whether reducing the extent to which this group form conclusions based on limited evidence, also known as the "jumping-to-conclusions" (JTC) bias, could improve capacity.

METHODS

In a randomized controlled open trial, 37 patients aged 16-65 years diagnosed with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive a single-session intervention designed to reduce the JTC bias (MCT-JTC; adapted from Metacognitive Training [MCT]) or an attention control (AC) condition designed to control for therapist attention, duration, modality, and face validity. Primary outcomes were treatment decision-making capacity measured by the MacArthur Competency Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) and the jumping-to-conclusions reasoning bias measured by draws to decision on the beads task, each of which were administered by the psychologist delivering the intervention.

RESULTS

Those receiving MCT-JTC had large improvements in overall capacity (d = 0.96, P < .05) and appreciation (d = 0.87, P < .05) compared to those receiving AC. Reduction in JTC mediated a large proportion of the effect of group allocation on understanding, appreciation, reasoning, and overall MacCAT-T scores.

CONCLUSION

This is the first experimental investigation of the effect of a psychological intervention on treatment decision-making capacity in psychosis. It provides early evidence that reducing the JTC bias is associated with large and rapid improvements in capacity. Due to limited resources, assessments were administered by the researchers delivering the intervention. Results should therefore be considered preliminary and a larger, definitive trial addressing methodological limitations is warranted.

A distinct inferential mechanism for delusions in schizophrenia

Delusions, a core symptom of psychosis, are false beliefs that are rigidly held with strong conviction despite contradictory evidence. Alterations in inferential processes have long been proposed to underlie delusional pathology, but previous attempts to show this have failed to yield compelling evidence for a specific relationship between inferential abnormalities and delusional severity in schizophrenia. Using a novel, incentivized information-sampling task (a modified version of the beads task), alongside well-characterized decision-making tasks, we sought a mechanistic understanding of delusions in a sample of medicated and unmedicated patients with schizophrenia who exhibited a wide range of delusion severity. In this novel task, participants chose whether to draw beads from one of two hidden jars or to guess the identity of the hidden jar, in order to minimize financial loss from a monetary endowment, and concurrently reported their probability estimates for the hidden jar. We found that patients with higher delusion severity exhibited increased information seeking (i.e. increased draws-to-decision behaviour). This increase was highly specific to delusion severity as compared to the severity of other psychotic symptoms, working-memory capacity, and other clinical and socio-demographic characteristics. Delusion-related increases in information seeking were present in unmedicated patients, indicating that they were unlikely due to antipsychotic medication. In addition, after adjusting for delusion severity, patients as a whole exhibited decreased information seeking relative to healthy individuals, a decrease that correlated with lower socioeconomic status. Computational analyses of reported probability estimates further showed that more delusional patients exhibited abnormal belief updating characterized by stronger reliance on prior beliefs formed early in the inferential process, a feature that correlated with increased information seeking in patients. Other decision-making parameters that could have theoretically explained the delusion effects, such as those related to subjective valuation, were uncorrelated with both delusional severity and information seeking among the patients. In turn, we found some preliminary evidence that subjective valuation (rather than belief updating) may explain group differences in information seeking unrelated to delusions. Together, these results suggest that abnormalities in belief updating, characterized by stronger reliance on prior beliefs formed by incorporating information presented earlier in the inferential process, may be a core computational mechanism of delusional ideation in psychosis. Our results thus provide direct empirical support for an inferential mechanism that naturally captures the characteristic rigidity associated with delusional beliefs.

Investigating the jumping to conclusion bias in bipolar disorder

INTRODUCTION

Hemsley and Garety described the "jumping to conclusions bias" in which patients with delusions may reach unreasonable results with insufficient information. In this study patients with bipolar disorder and healthy volunteers were compared in terms of jumping to conclusions bias using the beads in the jar task.

METHODS

37 patients with DSM-5 diagnosis of bipolar disorder and 30 healthy controls were tested with the Beads Task (BT), Tower of London Test (ToL) and Barrat Impulsiveness Scale (BIS).

RESULTS

In the BT, the mean score of DtD (draws to decision) and JTC (jumping to conclusions) scores were not statistically different between the two groups. In the ToL test, the duration of the total execution and the total time were significantly longer in the bipolar group than the control group. BIS scores were significantly higher in the bipolar group. YMRS (Young Mania Rating Scale) scores were not correlated with BT.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first clinical study to assess the jumping to conclusions bias in patients with bipolar disorder. No JTC bias was detected in bipolar disorder. Further studies may assess JTC in larger samples to determine the effects of clinical state changes, psychotic symptoms, medication and impulsivity.

The relationship between jumping to conclusions and neuropsychological functioning in schizophrenia

Jumping to conclusions (JTC) is defined as a tendency to make decisions based on insufficient information. JTC has been reported in patients with psychosis, but the mechanisms of this cognitive bias remain unknown. The main aim of our study was to investigate the relationship between JTC and neuropsychological functioning in schizophrenia. A total of 85 schizophrenia patients were assessed with neuropsychological tests, including executive functions, verbal memory, working memory, processing speed and attention. JTC was assessed with the Fish Task (probability 80:20 and 60:40) and a self-report scale (The Davos Assessment of Cognitive Biases Scale, DACOBS). Symptom severity was assessed with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). The relationship between JTC and neuropsychological functioning was investigated with correlation and regression analyses. The regression analyses model, when controlling for duration of illness, age and symptoms, showed that verbal memory and working memory were specifically related to JTC measured by Fish Task 60:40. JTC measured using Fish Task 60:40 was correlated only with severity of symptoms of disorganization (PANSS). The results from the present study suggest that the relationship between decision making during the reasoning task and neuropsychological functioning is modulated by task demands.

Cooperative versus competitive influences of emotion and cognition on decision making: A primer for psychiatry research

Clinical research across the developmental spectrum increasingly reveals the nuanced ways in which emotion and cognition can work to either support or derail rational (i.e., healthy or goal-consistent) decision making. However, psychological theories offer discrepant views on how these processes interact, and on whether emotion is helpful or harmful to rational decision making. In order to translate theoretical predictions from basic psychology to clinical research, an understanding of theoretical perspectives on emotion and cognition, as informed by experimental psychology, is needed. Here, I review the ways in which dual-process theories have incorporated emotion into the process of decision making, discussing how they account for both positive and negative influences. I first describe seven theoretical perspectives that make explicit assumptions and predictions about the interaction between emotion and cognition: affect as information, the affect heuristic, risk as feelings, hot versus cool cognition, the somatic parker hypothesis, prospect theory, and fuzzy-trace theory. I then discuss the conditions under which each theoretical perspective conceptualizes emotion as beneficial or harmful to decision making, providing examples from research on psychiatric disorders.

The simulation heuristic, paranoia, and social anxiety in a non-clinical sample

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Quality of reasoning within non-clinical paranoia and mental simulation of future paranoia themed events was investigated by use of a simulation task to determine whether paranoid individuals would be restricted or more adept at reasoning about paranoia relevant material in comparison to a social anxiety group and a group with low paranoia and social anxiety.

METHOD

Participants (N = 63) were divided into the three groups based on paranoia and social anxiety scores. They were presented with the beginning and end of an imaginary situation and were asked to describe, step-by-step, what they imagined would happen between those two points. They were also administered a beads task to evaluate the jumping to conclusion decision making bias.

RESULTS

The prediction of more adept reasoning was not supported for paranoia. However, the social anxiety comparison group on average better simulated a scenario with congruent (socially anxious) thematic content compared to ones with non-congruent content. Further, in an exploratory analysis, jumping to conclusions bias was found to be positively related to goodness of simulation for paranoia themed scenarios within the paranoia group.

LIMITATIONS

Study groups were relatively small and so power was an issue.

CONCLUSION

The results are discussed in the context of the sometimes paradoxical findings in the area of cognitive biases and paranoia.

Psychotic symptoms in youth with Pediatric Acute-onset Neuropsychiatric Syndrome (PANS) may reflect syndrome severity and heterogeneity

OBJECTIVE

In the clinical syndrome Pediatric Acute-onset Neuropsychiatric Syndrome (PANS), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD) and/or food refusal symptoms have an abrupt-onset (over 48 h) coupled with at least two other specified neuropsychiatric symptoms. We aimed to characterize in detail for the first time, psychotic symptoms experienced by children with PANS as well as the impact of psychotic symptoms on disease severity and course of illness. We inform about the diagnosis of the clinical description: PANS and hope to improve evaluation, treatment, diagnostic validity and future investigation.

METHODS

Retrospective review of 143 consecutive PANS clinic patient charts meeting inclusion criteria. The Caregiver Burden Inventory, Global Impairment Score, and Children's Global Assessment Scale were used to assess impairment.

RESULTS

Visual and auditory hallucinations were each experienced by 36%, of which most (83%) were transient and complex (non-threatening voices or figures). 6.3% and 5.5% of patients experienced delusions and thought disorganization respectively. Those with psychotic symptoms showed statistically significant differences in disease impairment and caregiver burden. There were no differences in time to treatment access or length of illness.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 1/3 of children with PANS experienced transient hallucinations. They were more impaired than those without psychotic symptoms, but showed no differences in disease progression. This difference may point toward heterogeneity in PANS. When evaluating children with acute psychotic symptoms, clinicians should screen for abrupt-onset of a symptom cluster including OCD and/or food refusal, with neuropsychiatric symptoms (enuresis, handwriting changes, tics, hyperactivity, sleep disorder) before initiating treatment.

Cost Evaluation During Decision-Making in Patients at Early Stages of Psychosis

Jumping to conclusions during probabilistic reasoning is a cognitive bias reliably observed in psychosis and linked to delusion formation. Although the reasons for this cognitive bias are unknown, one suggestion is that psychosis patients may view sampling information as more costly. However, previous computational modeling has provided evidence that patients with chronic schizophrenia jump to conclusions because of noisy decision-making. We developed a novel version of the classical beads task, systematically manipulating the cost of information gathering in four blocks. For 31 individuals with early symptoms of psychosis and 31 healthy volunteers, we examined the numbers of "draws to decision" when information sampling had no, a fixed, or an escalating cost. Computational modeling involved estimating a cost of information sampling parameter and a cognitive noise parameter. Overall, patients sampled less information than controls. However, group differences in numbers of draws became less prominent at higher cost trials, where less information was sampled. The attenuation of group difference was not due to floor effects, as in the most costly block, participants sampled more information than an ideal Bayesian agent. Computational modeling showed that, in the condition with no objective cost to information sampling, patients attributed higher costs to information sampling than controls did, Mann-Whitney U = 289, p = 0.007, with marginal evidence of differences in noise parameter estimates, t(60) = 1.86, p = 0.07. In patients, individual differences in severity of psychotic symptoms were statistically significantly associated with higher cost of information sampling, ρ = 0.6, p = 0.001, but not with more cognitive noise, ρ = 0.27, p = 0.14; in controls, cognitive noise predicted aspects of schizotypy (preoccupation and distress associated with delusion-like ideation on the Peters Delusion Inventory). Using a psychological manipulation and computational modeling, we provide evidence that early-psychosis patients jump to conclusions because of attributing higher costs to sampling information, not because of being primarily noisy decision makers.

Investigation of sex differences in delusion-associated cognitive biases

In the past few decades, sex differences have been identified in a number of clinical, cognitive and functional outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. However, to date, sex differences in higher-order cognitive biases have not been systematically studied. The present study aimed to examine sex differences in jumping-to-conclusions and evidence integration impairment based on data collected in two previous studies in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and healthy controls. For this purpose, data from n = 58 patients and n = 60 healthy controls on the Fish Task (as a measure of jumping to conclusions) and bias against disconfirmatory evidence (BADE; as a measure of evidence integration) task were analyzed. Results indicated a lack of sex differences in jumping-to-conclusions and evidence integration impairment both in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and healthy controls. Although the present study was adequately powered to detect sex differences of a low medium effect size, larger studies are warranted to exclude differences of a smaller magnitude between men and women regarding delusion-associated cognitive biases.

Suicidal Ideation in People With Psychosis Not Taking Antipsychotic Medication: Do Negative Appraisals and Negative Metacognitive Beliefs Mediate the Effect of Symptoms?

Between 5% and 10% of people with psychosis will die by suicide, a rate which is 20-75 times higher than the general population. This risk is even greater in those not taking antipsychotic medication. We examined whether negative appraisals of psychotic experiences and negative metacognitive beliefs about losing mental control mediated a relationship between psychotic symptoms and suicidal ideation in this group. Participants were diagnosed with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, antipsychotic-free for 6 months at baseline, and were participating in an 18-month randomized controlled trial of cognitive therapy vs treatment as usual. We conducted a series of mediation analyses with bootstrapping on baseline (N = 68), follow-up data (9-18 mo; n = 49), and longitudinal data (n = 47). Concurrent general symptoms were directly associated with suicidal ideation at baseline, and concurrent negative symptoms were directly associated with suicidal ideation at 9-18 months. Concurrent positive, negative, general, and overall symptoms were each indirectly associated with suicidal ideation via negative appraisals and/or negative metacognitive beliefs, at baseline and 9-18 months, except for negative symptoms at baseline. Controlling for baseline suicidal ideation and treatment allocation, baseline general symptoms were indirectly associated with later suicidal ideation, via baseline negative appraisals and negative metacognitive beliefs. Baseline negative metacognitive beliefs also had a direct association with later suicidal ideation. These findings suggest the clinical assessment of suicidal ideation in psychosis may be enhanced by considering metacognitive beliefs about the probability and consequences of losing mental control.

Thinking dispositions and cognitive reflection performance in schizotypy

Schizotypy refers to the continuum of normal variability of psychosis-like characteristics and experiences, often classified as positive schizotypy (‘unusual experiences’; UE) and negative schizotypy (‘introvertive anhedonia’; IA). Here, we investigated the link between schizotypy and cognitive processing style and performance. A particular focus was on whether schizotypy is associated more with Type 1 (automatic/heuristic) than Type 2 (reflective/effortful) processes, as may be expected from findings of impaired top-down control in schizophrenia. A large sample (n = 1,512) completed online measures pertaining to schizotypy (Oxford-Liverpool Inventory for Feelings and Experiences; O-LIFE), thinking style (Rational Experiential Inventory-10, Actively Open-Minded Thinking Scale), and reasoning performance (Cognitive Reflection Test). Higher positive (UE) and negative (IA) schizotypy were associated with more pronounced Type 1 processing, i.e. greater self-reported Faith in Intuition (FI), lower Need for Cognition (NFC), lower Actively Open-Minded Thinking (AOT), and lower cognitive reflection test (CRT) scores. Canonical correlation analysis confirmed a significant association between UE and increased FI, lower AOT and lower CRT performance, accounting for 12.38% of the shared variance between schizotypy and thinking dispositions. IA was more highly associated with reduced NFC. These findings suggest that schizotypy may be associated with similar thinking dispositions to those reported in psychosis, with different patterns of associations for positive and negative schizotypy. This result informs research on reasoning processes in psychosis and has clinical implications, including potential treatment targets and refinements for cognitive therapies.

Decision-making ability in psychosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the magnitude, specificity and correlates of impaired performance on the Iowa and Cambridge Gambling Tasks

To identify factors which may help or hinder decision-making ability in people with psychosis, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis of their performance on the Iowa and Cambridge Gambling Tasks. Analysis of 47 samples found they had moderately poorer performance than healthy individuals (N = 4264, g = -0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.66 to -0.48). Few studies (k = 8) used non-psychotic clinical comparator groups, although very low-quality evidence (k = 3) found people with bipolar disorder may perform better. Negative symptoms (k = 13, N = 648, r = -0.17, 95% CI -0.26 to -0.07) and lower IQ (k = 11, N = 525, r = 0.20, 95% CI 0.29-0.10), but not positive symptoms (k = 10, N = 512, r = -0.01, 95% CI -0.11 to 0.08), each had small-moderate associations with poorer decision-making. Lower quality evidence suggested general symptoms, working memory, social functioning, awareness of emotional responses to information, and attentional bias towards gain are associated with decision-making, but not education, executive functioning or overall symptoms. Meta-regression suggested an inverse association between decision-making and depression severity (k = 6, Q = 6.41, R2 100%, p = 0.01). Those taking first-generation (k = 6, N = 305, g = -0.17, 95% CI -0.40 to 0.06, p = 0.147) or low-dose antipsychotics (k = 5, N = 442, g = -0.19, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.06, p = 0.139) had unimpaired decision-making. Although meta-regression found no linear association between dose and performance, non-reporting of the dose was common and associated with larger impairments (k = 46, Q = 4.71, R2 14%, p = 0.03). Those supporting people with psychosis to make decisions, including treatment decisions, should consider the potential effect of these factors. Interventionist-causal trials are required to test whether reducing antipsychotic dose and treating anxiety and depression can improve decision-making in this group.

Fast and slow thinking in distressing delusions: A review of the literature and implications for targeted therapy

The recent literature on reasoning biases in psychosis and delusions is reviewed. The state-of-the-art knowledge from systematic reviews and meta-analyses on the evidence for jumping to conclusions is briefly summarised, before a fuller discussion of the more recent empirical literature on belief flexibility as applied to delusions. The methodology and evidence in relation to studies of belief flexibility and the Bias Against Disconfirmatory Evidence (BADE) across the delusional continuum will be critically appraised, and implications drawn for improving cognitive therapy. It will be proposed that dual process models of reasoning, which Kahneman (Kahneman, 2011) popularised as 'fast and slow thinking', provide a useful theoretical framework for integrating further research and informing clinical practice. The emergence of therapies which specifically target fast and slow thinking in people with distressing delusions will be described.

Cognitive mechanisms of alexithymia in schizophrenia: Investigating the role of basic neurocognitive functioning and cognitive biases

Alexithymia is an important but poorly understood emotional deficit in schizophrenia. We aimed at investigating the role of basic cognitive functions, cognitive biases, and symptom severity in alexithymia among patients with schizophrenia. Sixty patients (31 females) with schizophrenia were assessed with standardized clinical interviews for symptom severity. Cognitive functioning was assessed with neuropsychological tests. A self-report scale (Davos Assessment of Cognitive Biases, DACOBS), as well as two experimental tasks assessing jumping to conclusions (the Fish task) and source monitoring (Action memory task), were used to investigate cognitive biases. Alexithymia was assessed with the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20). Alexithymia was related to the severity of hallucinations but not delusions. Patients with a lifetime history of more psychotic symptoms had higher alexithymia. Alexithymia has broad relationships with different cognitive biases, especially in the self-reported measure. These relationships were not affected by neurocognition and symtpoms severity. In particular, difficulties in identification of feelings were related to various cognitive biases. Dysfunctional information processing can thus be considered as potential psychological correlates of alexithymia. The theoretical and clinical implications of our findings are discussed.

Neural correlates of dynamic emotion perception in schizophrenia and the influence of prior expectations

Impaired emotion perception is a well-established and stable deficit in schizophrenia; however, there is limited knowledge about the underlying aberrant cognitive and brain processes that result in emotion perception deficits. Recent influential work has shown that perceptual deficits in schizophrenia may result from aberrant precision in prior expectations, associated with disrupted activity in frontal regions. In the present study, we investigated the perception of dynamic, multisensory emotion, the influence of prior expectations and the underlying aberrant brain processes in schizophrenia. During a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging scan, participants completed the Dynamic Emotion Perception task, which induces prior expectations with emotion instruction cues. We delineated neural responses and functional connectivity in whole-brain large-scale networks underlying emotion perception. Compared to healthy individuals, schizophrenia patients had lower accuracy specifically for emotions that were congruent with prior expectations. At the neural level, schizophrenia patients had less engagement of right inferior frontal and parietal regions, as well as right amygdala dysconnectivity during discrimination of emotions congruent with prior expectations. The results indicate that individuals with schizophrenia may have aberrant prior expectations about emotional expressions, associated with under-activity in inferior frontoparietal regions and right amygdala dysconnectivity, which results in impaired perception of emotion.

Examining reasoning biases in schizophrenia using a modified "Jumping to Conclusions" probabilistic reasoning task

Although the Jumping To Conclusion (JTC) bias has been extensively studied in relation to schizophrenia and persecutory delusions, the relationship between JTC and other reasoning biases implicated in delusional ideation is not fully understood. We modified the traditional JTC task to assess co-occurrence of reasoning biases in decision making. Forty-six patients with schizophrenia and 46 healthy controls completed two versions [neutral colored beads and salient comments] of the modified task. We replicated previous findings indicating that patients showed a greater JTC bias, and in both groups, the JTC bias was more pronounced for the salient task. However, we observed a significant effect for non-Bayesian judgments, indicating that patients showed greater difficulty in probabilistic reasoning. When controlling for probabilistic reasoning ability, the observed JTC bias effects were diminished. Our findings that faulty probability assessment accounts for the JTC bias indicates that the traditional JTC bias task may not represent an inherent hasty decision-making bias, but rather an inability to fully understand and execute the stated goals of the task. These results call into question the current understanding of the JTC bias and the independence of this bias apart from the cognitive demands of the task.

Attractor-like Dynamics in Belief Updating in Schizophrenia

Subjects with a diagnosis of schizophrenia (Scz) overweight unexpected evidence in probabilistic inference: such evidence becomes "aberrantly salient." A neurobiological explanation for this effect is that diminished synaptic gain (e.g., hypofunction of cortical NMDARs) in Scz destabilizes quasi-stable neuronal network states (or "attractors"). This attractor instability account predicts that (1) Scz would overweight unexpected evidence but underweight consistent evidence, (2) belief updating would be more vulnerable to stochastic fluctuations in neural activity, and (3) these effects would correlate. Hierarchical Bayesian belief updating models were tested in two independent datasets (n = 80 male and n = 167 female) comprising human subjects with Scz, and both clinical and nonclinical controls (some tested when unwell and on recovery) performing the "probability estimates" version of the beads task (a probabilistic inference task). Models with a standard learning rate, or including a parameter increasing updating to "disconfirmatory evidence," or a parameter encoding belief instability were formally compared. The "belief instability" model (based on the principles of attractor dynamics) had most evidence in all groups in both datasets. Two of four parameters differed between Scz and nonclinical controls in each dataset: belief instability and response stochasticity. These parameters correlated in both datasets. Furthermore, the clinical controls showed similar parameter distributions to Scz when unwell, but were no different from controls once recovered. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that attractor network instability contributes to belief updating abnormalities in Scz, and suggest that similar changes may exist during acute illness in other psychiatric conditions.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Subjects with a diagnosis of schizophrenia (Scz) make large adjustments to their beliefs following unexpected evidence, but also smaller adjustments than controls following consistent evidence. This has previously been construed as a bias toward "disconfirmatory" information, but a more mechanistic explanation may be that in Scz, neural firing patterns ("attractor states") are less stable and hence easily altered in response to both new evidence and stochastic neural firing. We model belief updating in Scz and controls in two independent datasets using a hierarchical Bayesian model, and show that all subjects are best fit by a model containing a belief instability parameter. Both this and a response stochasticity parameter are consistently altered in Scz, as the unstable attractor hypothesis predicts.

The relationship between anomalistic belief and biases of evidence integration and jumping to conclusions

Biases in the assessment and integration of evidence are likely contributors to anomalistic (e.g., paranormal, extra-terrestrial) beliefs because of the non-evidence based nature of these beliefs. However, little research has examined the relationship between anomalistic beliefs and evidence integration biases. The current study addressed this gap by examining the relationship between anomalistic belief and four such biases; bias against disconfirmatory evidence (BADE), bias against confirmatory evidence (BACE), liberal acceptance bias, and the jumping to conclusions bias (JTC). Standard BADE scenarios were used to measure BADE, BACE, and the liberal acceptance bias: Participants were given three pieces of evidence, one at a time, and required to rate several alternative explanations. The JTC was measured using two draws-to-decisions tasks (beads and emotionally salient), and participants also completed measures of anomalistic belief and delusion-proneness. Results showed that liberal acceptance was the only evidence integration bias that significantly predicted greater overall anomalistic belief. However, this relationship was no longer significant once delusion proneness was controlled for. Additionally, BADE significantly predicted experiential (but not other types of) anomalistic beliefs even after controlling for delusion proneness. We propose that liberal acceptance may lead people to form anomalistic beliefs on the basis of little evidence, and that stronger BADE may make these beliefs highly resistant to change.

Beta-Blocker Propranolol Modulates Decision Urgency During Sequential Information Gathering

Arbitrating between timely choice and extended information gathering is critical for effective decision making. Aberrant information gathering behavior is thought to be a feature of psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia and obsessive-compulsive disorder, but we know little about the underlying neurocognitive control mechanisms. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled drug study involving 60 healthy human subjects (30 female), we examined the effects of noradrenaline and dopamine antagonism on information gathering during performance of an information sampling task. We show that modulating noradrenaline function with 40 mg of the β-blocker propranolol leads to decreased information gathering behavior. Modulating dopamine function via a single dose of 400 mg of amisulpride revealed some effects that were intermediate between those of propranolol and placebo. Using a Bayesian computational model, we show that sampling behavior is best explained by inclusion of a nonlinear urgency signal that promotes commitment to an early decision. Noradrenaline blockade promotes the expression of this decision-related urgency signal during information gathering. We discuss the findings with respect to psychopathological conditions that are linked to aberrant information gathering.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Knowing when to stop gathering information and commit to a choice option is nontrivial. This is an important element in arbitrating between information gain and energy conservation. In this double-blind, placebo-controlled drug study, we investigated the role of catecholamines noradrenaline and dopamine on sequential information gathering. We found that blockade of noradrenaline led to a decrease in information gathering. Dopamine blockade showed an intermediate, but nonsignificant, effect. Using a Bayesian computational model, we show that this noradrenaline effect is driven by increased decision urgency, a signal that reflects an escalating subjective cost of sampling. The observation that noradrenaline modulates decision urgency suggests new avenues for treating patients that show information gathering deficits.

fMRI correlates of jumping-to-conclusions in patients with delusions: Connectivity patterns and effects of metacognitive training

Background

Reasoning biases such as the jumping-to-conclusions bias (JTC) are thought to contribute to delusions. Interventions targeting these biases such as metacognitive training (MCT) may improve delusions. So far, it is not clear whether JTC depends on dopaminergic reward areas that constitute the main action locus of antipsychotic drugs, or on additional cortical areas. The present study aimed to investigate fMRI activation and functional connectivity patterns underlying JTC, and their changes following MCT, in patients with delusions.

Methods

Participants were 25 healthy individuals and 26 patients with current delusions who were either medication-free or on stable medication without sufficient response. We assessed (1) BOLD activity in the task-positive (TPN), task-negative (TNN), and subcortical reward network (RN); (2) Psychophysiological interactions (PPI) of peak activation areas.

Results

Presence of JTC (irrespective of group) was associated with lower RN activity during conclusion events, and with increased effective connectivity between TPN and TNN during draw events. Following MCT, changes were observed in TPN activity and in effective connectivity of inferior parietal cortex (part of the TPN) with all three target networks.

Conclusion

JTC is associated not only with reward system areas that constitute the main target of antipsychotic drugs, but also with cortical areas, particularly of the TPN.

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Faulty evidence gathering (jumping to conclusions, JTC) is associated with delusions.

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We assessed data gathering with fMRI in patients with delusions vs healthy controls.

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JTC was associated with abnormal activity and connectivity patterns.

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Changes in the task-positive network were observed following metacognitive training.

Does CBT for Psychosis Have an Impact on Delusions by Improving Reasoning Biases and Negative Self-Schemas?

Abstract. Cognitive-behavioral therapy for psychosis (CBTp) builds on theoretical models that postulate reasoning biases and negative self-schemas to be involved in the formation and maintenance of delusions. However, it is unclear whether CBTp induces change in delusions by improving these proposed causal mechanisms. This study reports on a mediation analysis of a CBTp effectiveness trial in which delusions were a secondary outcome. Patients with psychosis were randomized to individualized CBTp (n = 36) or a waiting list condition (WL; n = 34). Reasoning biases (jumping to conclusions, theory of mind, attribution biases) and self-schemas (implicit and explicit self-esteem; self-schemas related to different domains) were assessed pre- and post-therapy/WL. The results reveal an intervention effect on two of four measures of delusions and on implicit self-esteem. Nevertheless, the intervention effect on delusions was not mediated by implicit self-esteem. Changes in explicit self-schemas and reasoning biases did also not mediate the intervention effects on delusions. More focused interventions may be required to produce change in reasoning and self-schemas that have the potential to carry over to delusions.

Towards a reliable repeated-measures beads task for assessing the jumping to conclusions bias

The jumping to conclusions bias (JTC), in which some people gather less information than others before making a decision, has been linked to delusions in psychosis. JTC is usually identified via the beads task, in which a sequence of beads (the "target" sequence) is used to measure the amount of evidence participants require before making a decision. Yet, despite its common use, the reliability of the task has never been properly investigated. We investigated its reliability, and tested an alternate version which used distractor sequences to obfuscate the target sequence. Healthy participants (N = 212) were randomised into two groups. One group completed ten trials using the target sequence, while the other completed ten trials of the target sequence and three distractor sequences. Our data indicated the standard task may not be reliable over repeated measures, but that by including distractor sequences, the task becomes more believable, repeatable, and reliable. Additionally, excluding first-trial data (a "silent" practice trial) also improves repeatability. These improvements to the task are relevant to single trial studies, and will be especially useful to repeated-measures longitudinal, experimental, and treatment studies. Such repeated-measures studies are important for investigating the causal link between JTC and delusions.

The moderating role of cognitive biases on the relationship between negative affective states and psychotic-like experiences in non-clinical adults

Negative emotions and cognitive biases are important factors underlying psychotic symptoms and psychotic-like experiences (PLEs); however, it is not clear whether these factors interact when they influence psychotic phenomena. The aim of our study was to investigate whether psychosis-related cognitive biases moderate the relationship between negative affective states, i.e. anxiety and depression, and psychotic-like experiences. The study sample contains 251 participants who have never been diagnosed with psychiatric disorders. Anxiety, depression, cognitive biases, and psychotic-like experiences were assessed with self-report questionnaires. A moderation analysis was performed to examine the relationship between the study variables. The analyses revealed that the link between anxiety and positive PLEs is moderated by External Attribution bias, whereas the relationship between depression and positive PLEs is moderated by Attention to Threat bias. Attributional bias was also found to moderate the association between depression and negative subclinical symptoms; Jumping to Conclusions bias served as a moderator in the link between anxiety and depression and negative PLEs. Further studies in clinical samples are required to verify the moderating role of individual cognitive biases on the relationship between negative emotional states and full-blown psychotic symptoms.

Data gathering ability contributes to visual organization and probabilistic reasoning

Individuals use data gathering methods to inform judgments and behaviors. Effective interaction with the environment depends on these having high accuracy and low noise, but when they become abnormal, aberrant thoughts and perceptions can occur. In this study, we examined if data gathering methods were consistent across tasks that relied on different cognitive abilities, specifically visual perception and probabilistic reasoning. Thirty-four non-clinical participants engaged in the Ebbinghaus Illusion and the Jumping to Conclusions tasks, while also completing questionnaires concerning aspects of delusion formation. A significant, positive correlation was observed between performance on the Ebbinghaus Illusion and the Jumping to Conclusions tasks. Both tasks were negatively correlated with the General Conspiracy Belief Scale. The results suggest an underlying mechanism for data gathering that is consistent across behavioral domains and exists on a continuum in the general population.