Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China: patterns of spread and transmissibility

Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

Machine Learning Algorithms for Risk Prediction of Severe Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease in Children

The identification of indicators for severe HFMD is critical for early prevention and control of the disease. With this goal in mind, 185 severe and 345 mild HFMD cases were assessed. Patient demographics, clinical features, MRI findings, and laboratory test results were collected. Gradient boosting tree (GBT) was then used to determine the relative importance (RI) and interaction effects of the variables. Results indicated that elevated white blood cell (WBC) count > 15 × 10⁹/L (RI: 4⁹.47, p < 0.001) was the top predictor of severe HFMD, followed by spinal cord involvement (RI: 26.62, p < 0.001), spinal nerve roots involvement (RI: 10.34, p < 0.001), hyperglycemia (RI: 3.40, p < 0.001), and brain or spinal meninges involvement (RI: 2.45, p = 0.003). Interactions between elevated WBC count and hyperglycemia (H statistic: 0.231, 95% CI: 0-0.262, p = 0.031), between spinal cord involvement and duration of fever ≥3 days (H statistic: 0.291, 95% CI: 0.035-0.326, p = 0.035), and between brainstem involvement and body temperature (H statistic: 0.313, 95% CI: 0-0.273, p = 0.017) were observed. Therefore, GBT is capable to identify the predictors for severe HFMD and their interaction effects, outperforming conventional regression methods.

Epidemiological Features of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease during the Period of 2008-14 in Wenzhou, China

This study aimed to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) during 2008-14 in Wenzhou, China. The epidemiological data of HFMD retrieved from the Wenzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention were retrospectively analyzed. HFMD infections with enterovirus 71 (EV71), Cox A16 or other pathogens were further verified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and real-time PCR. A total of 213 617 cases of HFMD were reported between 2008 and 2014 in Wenzhou. The average incidence was 384.31 of 100 000, and the fatality rate was 0.14‰. The incidence of HFMD peaked between April and July, and it occurred more frequently in males than in females. Approximately 92.68% of the HFMD patients were children aged <5 years. Nearly 80% of the cases were diagnosed within 2 days after onset. The major HFMD pathogen was EV71. This study suggested that appropriate comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken to avoid the spread of HFMD.

Epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei province, China, 2009-2012

Large outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have repeatedly occurred in mainland of China since 2007. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and aetiological characteristics of HFMD in Shijiazhuang City, one of the biggest northern cities of China. A total of 57,173 clinical HFMD cases, including 911 severe and 32 fatal cases, were reported in Shijiazhuang City during 2009–2012. The disease incidence peaked during March–July, with a small increase in the number of cases observed in November of each year. Seventeen potential HFMD-causing enterovirus serotypes were detected, with the most frequent serotypes being EV-A71 and CV-A16. CV-A10 was also a frequently detected causative serotype, and was associated with the second largest number of severe HFMD cases, following EV-A71. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all EV-A71, CV-A16 and CV-A10 strains from Shijiazhuang City had co-evolved and co-circulated with those from other Chinese provinces. Our findings underscore the need for enhanced surveillance and molecular detection for HFMD, and suggest that EV-A71 vaccination may be an effective intervention strategy for HFMD prevention and vaccines against CV-A10 and CV-A16 are also urgently needed.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children under the age of five is a major public health issue in China. Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is the largest urban agglomeration in northern China. The present study aimed to analyze the epidemiological features of HFMD, reveal spatial clusters, and detect risk factors in this region. Reports of HFMD cases in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2013 were collected from 211 counties or municipal districts. First, the epidemiological features were explored, and then SaTScan analysis was carried out to detect spatial clusters of HFMD. Finally, GeoDetector and spatial paneled model were used to identify potential risk factors among the socioeconomic and meteorological variables. There were a total of 90,527 HFMD cases in the year 2013. The highest rate was in individuals aged one year, with an incidence of 24.76/10³. Boys (55,168) outnumbered girls (35,359). Temporally, the incidence rose rapidly from April, peaking in June (4.08/10³). Temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were positively associated with the incidence rate, while precipitation and sunshine hours had a negative association. The explanatory powers of these factors were 57%, 13%, 2%, 21% and 12%, respectively. Spatially, the highest-risk regions were located in Beijing and neighboring areas, with a relative risk (RR) value of 3.04. The proportion of primary industry was negatively associated with HFMD transmission, with an explanatory power of 32%. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, proportion of tertiary industry, and population density were positively associated with disease incidence, with explanatory powers of 22%, 17% and 15%, respectively. These findings may be helpful in the risk assessment of HFMD transmission and for implementing effective interventions to reduce the burden of this disease.

Time series modeling of pathogen-specific disease probabilities with subsampled data

Many diseases arise due to exposure to one of multiple possible pathogens. We consider the situation in which disease counts are available over time from a study region, along with a measure of clinical disease severity, for example, mild or severe. In addition, we suppose a subset of the cases are lab tested in order to determine the pathogen responsible for disease. In such a context, we focus interest on modeling the probabilities of disease incidence given pathogen type. The time course of these probabilities is of great interest as is the association with time-varying covariates such as meteorological variables. In this set up, a natural Bayesian approach would be based on imputation of the unsampled pathogen information using Markov Chain Monte Carlo but this is computationally challenging. We describe a practical approach to inference that is easy to implement. We use an empirical Bayes procedure in a first step to estimate summary statistics. We then treat these summary statistics as the observed data and develop a Bayesian generalized additive model. We analyze data on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China in which there are two pathogens of primary interest, enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxackie A16 (CA16). We find that both EV71 and CA16 are associated with temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, with reasonably similar functional forms for both pathogens. The important issue of confounding by time is modeled using a penalized B-spline model with a random effects representation. The level of smoothing is addressed by a careful choice of the prior on the tuning variance.

The exposure-response relationship between temperature and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region. Numerous studies have tried to quantify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD but with inconsistent results, in particular for temperature. We aimed to characterize the relationship between temperature and HFMD in various locations and to investigate the potential heterogeneity.

METHODS

We retrieved the daily series of childhood HFMD counts (aged 0-12 years) and meteorological variables for each of 143 cities in mainland China in the period 2009-2014. We fitted a common distributed lag nonlinear model allowing for over dispersion to each of the cities to obtain the city-specific estimates of temperature-HFMD relationship. Then we pooled the city-specific estimates through multivariate meta-regression with city-level characteristics as potential effect modifiers.

RESULTS

We found that the overall pooled temperature-HFMD relationship was shown as an approximately inverted V shape curve, peaking at the 91th percentile of temperature with a risk ratio of 1.30 (95% CI: 1.23-1.37) compared to its 50th percentile. We found that 68.5% of the variations of city-specific estimates was attributable to heterogeneity. We identified rainfall and altitude as the two main effect modifiers.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a nonlinear relationship between temperature and HFMD. The temperature-HFMD relationship varies depending on geographic and climatic conditions. The findings can help us deepen the understanding of weather-HFMD relationship and provide evidences for related public health decisions.

Age patterns and transmission characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in China

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has circulated in China and caused yearly outbreak. To understand the transmission of the disease and to assess the spatial variation in cases reported, we examined age-specific transmission characteristics and reporting rates of HFMD for 31 provinces in mainland China.

Methods

We first analyzed incidence spatial patterns and age-specific incidence patterns using dataset from 2008 to 2012. Transmission characteristics were estimated based on catalytic model. Reporting rates were estimated using a simple mass action model from “Time Series Susceptible Infectious Recovered” (TSIR) modeling.

Results

We found age-specific spatial incidence patterns: age-specific proportions of HFMD cases varied geographically in China; larger case percentage was among children of 3–5 years old in the northern part of China and was among children of 0–2 years old in the southern part of China. Our analysis results revealed that: 1) reporting rates and transmission characteristics including the average age at infection, the force of infection and the basic reproduction number varied geographically in China; 2) patterns of the age-specific force of infection for 30 provinces were similar to that of childhood infections in developed countries; the age group that had the highest infection risk was 3–5 years old in 30 provinces, and 10–14 years old in Tibet; 3) a large difference in HFMD transmission existed between northwest region and southeast region; 4) transmission characteristics determined incidence patterns: the higher the disease transmission in a province, the earlier the annual seasonality started and the more case percentage was among children 0–2 years old and less among 3–5 years old.

Conclusion

Because HFMD has higher transmission than most childhood infections reported, high effective vaccine coverage is needed to substantially reduce HFMD incidence. Control measures before the vaccine implementation should focus on 2–6 years old children in 30 provinces and 10–14 years old children in Tibet.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-2008-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Epidemiology and etiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Fujian province, 2008-2014

Millions of cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) have been reported annually in mainland China since 2008. In this study, we investigated the epidemiology and etiology of an HFMD epidemic in Fujian province, which is located in subtropical southeastern China. Our study found similar epidemiological features of HFMD in southern areas of China, including seasonality and demographic distribution, as well as correlation between severity of illness and serotype. At least 22 serotypes of other enterovirus co-circulating with enterovirus 71 were found to belong to clade C4a, and those circulating with coxsackievirus A16 were associated with clades B1a and B1b.

Determinants of the Transmission Variation of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Severe outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) have occurred in China for decades. Our understanding of the HFMD transmission process and its determinants is still limited. In this paper, factors that affect the local variation of HFMD transmission process were studied. Three classes of factors, including meteorological, demographic and public health intervention factors, were carefully selected and their effects on HFMD transmission were investigated with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression models. The determining factors for the variation of HFMD transmission were different for the southeastern and the northwestern regions of China. In the northwest, fadeouts occurred yearly, and the average age at infection and the fadeout were negatively correlated with the population density. In the southeast, HFMD transmission was governed by the combined effects of the birth rate, the relative humidity and the interaction of the Health System Performance and the log of the population density. When the Health System Performance was low, HFMD transmission increased with the population density, but when the Health System Performance was high, the better health performance counteracted the transmission increase due to the higher population density.

The Epidemiology of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Asia: A Systematic Review and Analysis

CONTEXT

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a widespread pediatric disease caused primarily by human enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16).

OBJECTIVE

This study reports a systematic review of the epidemiology of HFMD in Asia.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar were searched up to December 2014.

STUDY SELECTION

Two reviewers independently assessed studies for epidemiologic and serologic information about prevalence and incidence of HFMD against predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers extracted answers for 8 specific research questions on HFMD epidemiology. The results are checked by 3 others.

RESULTS

HFMD is found to be seasonal in temperate Asia with a summer peak and in subtropical Asia with spring and fall peaks, but not in tropical Asia; evidence of a climatic role was identified for temperate Japan. Risk factors for HFMD include hygiene, age, gender and social contacts, but most studies were underpowered to adjust rigorously for confounding variables. Both community-level and school-level transmission have been implicated, but their relative importance for HFMD is inconclusive. Epidemiologic indices are poorly understood: No supporting quantitative evidence was found for the incubation period of EV-A71; the symptomatic rate of EV-A71/Coxsackievirus A16 infection was from 10% to 71% in 4 studies; while the basic reproduction number was between 1.1 and 5.5 in 3 studies. The uncertainty in these estimates inhibits their use for further analysis.

LIMITATIONS

Diversity of study designs complicates attempts to identify features of HFMD epidemiology.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge on HFMD remains insufficient to guide interventions such as the incorporation of an EV-A71 vaccine in pediatric vaccination schedules. Research is urgently needed to fill these gaps.

Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Hong Kong: A Time-Series Analysis on Its Relationship with Weather

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an emerging enterovirus-induced infectious disease for which the environmental risk factors promoting disease circulation remain inconclusive. This study aims to quantify the association of daily weather variation with hospitalizations for HFMD in Hong Kong, a subtropical city in China.

Methods

A time series of daily counts of HFMD public hospital admissions from 2008 through 2011 in Hong Kong was regressed on daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and total rainfall, using a combination of negative binomial generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for trend, season, and day of week.

Results

There was a positive association between temperature and HFMD, with increasing trends from 8 to 20°C and above 25°C with a plateau in between. A hockey-stick relationship of relative humidity with HFMD was found, with markedly increasing risks over 80%. Moderate rainfall and stronger wind and solar radiation were also found to be associated with more admissions.

Conclusions

The present study provides quantitative evidence that short-term meteorological variations could be used as early indicators for potential HFMD outbreaks. Climate change is likely to lead to a substantial increase in severe HFMD cases in this subtropical city in the absence of further interventions.

Effect of Climatic Factors on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in South Korea, 2010-2013

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) causes characteristic blisters and sores mainly in infants and children, and has been monitored in South Korea through sentinel surveillance since 2009. We described the patterns of HFMD occurrence and analyzed the effect of climatic factors on national HFMD incidence. Weekly clinically diagnosed HFMD case rates (per 1,000 outpatients) in sentinel sites and weekly climatic factors, such as average temperature, relative humidity, duration of sunshine, precipitation, and wind speed from 2010 to 2013, were used in this study. A generalized additive model with smoothing splines and climatic variables with time lags of up to 2 weeks were considered in the modeling process. To account for long-term trends and seasonality, we controlled for each year and their corresponding weeks. The autocorrelation issue was also adjusted by using autocorrelation variables. At an average temperature below 18°C, the HFMD rate increased by 10.3% for every 1°C rise in average temperature (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.4, 12.3%). We also saw a 6.6% increase in HFMD rate (95% CI: 3.6, 9.7%) with every 1% increase in relative humidity under 65%, with a 1.5% decrease in HFMD rate observed (95% CI: 0.4, 2.7%) with each 1% humidity increase above 65%. Modeling results have shown that average temperature and relative humidity are related to HFMD rate. Additional research on the environmental risk factors of HFMD transmission is required to understand the underlying mechanism between climatic factors and HFMD incidence.

Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood disease with substantial disease burden in Asia. Mixed results were reported on the associations between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors or school holidays, while limited studies focused on their association on transmissibility. We aimed to measure the transmissibility of HFMD and to examine its potential driving factors in Hong Kong. A likelihood-based procedure was used to estimate time-dependent effective reproduction number (Rt) based on weekly number of HFMD-associated hospitalizations from 2010 to 2014. The associations of between-year effects, depletion of susceptibles, absolute humidity and school holidays with Rt were examined using linear regression. Rt usually started increasing between early spring and summer and peaked in April to May at around 1.1-1.2, followed by a slight rebound in autumn. Depletion of susceptibles and between-years effects explained most of the variances (19 and 13% respectively) in Rt. We found a negative association between depletion of susceptibles and Rt (coefficients ranged from -0.14 to -0.03 for different years), but the estimated effects of absolute humidity and school holidays were insignificant. Overall, HFMD transmission was moderate in Hong Kong and was mainly associated with depletion of susceptibles. Limited impact was suggested from meteorological factors and school holidays.

Impact of temperature variation between adjacent days on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease during April and July in urban and rural Hefei, China

Previous studies have found that both high temperature and low temperature increase the risk of childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). However, little is known about whether temperature variation between neighboring days has any effects on childhood HFMD. A Poisson generalized linear regression model, combined with a distributed lag non-linear model, was applied to examine the relationship between temperature change and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, from 1st January 2010 to 31st December 2012. Temperature change was defined as the difference of current day's mean temperature and previous day's mean temperature. Late spring and early summer (April-July) were chosen as the main study period due to it having the highest childhood HFMD incidence. There was a statistical association between temperature change between neighboring days and childhood HFMD. The effects of temperature change on childhood HFMD increased below a temperature change of 0 °C (temperature drop). The temperature change has the greatest adverse effect on childhood HFMD at 7 days lag, with 4 % (95 % confidence interval 2-7 %) increase per 3 °C drop of temperature. Male children and urban children appeared to be more vulnerable to the effects of temperature change. Temperature change between adjacent days might be an alternative temperature indictor for exploring the temperature-HFMD relationship.

Detecting spatial-temporal cluster of hand foot and mouth disease in Beijing, China, 2009-2014

Background

The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is extremely high, and has constituted a huge disease burden throughout Beijing in recent years. This study aimed to determine the spatiotemporal distribution and epidemic characteristics of HFMD.

Methods

Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the data and estimate the epidemic peaks in 2009–2014. Space–time scanning detected spatiotemporal clusters and identified high-risk locations. Global and local Moran’s I statistics were used to measure the spatial autocorrelation. Geocoding was performed in ArcGIS, based on the present address codes of the patients and the centroids of the towns. Maps were created in ArcGIS to show the geographic spread of HFMD.

Results

In total, 220,451probable cases of HFMD were reported in Beijing between January 2009 and December 2014: 12,749 (5.78 %) were laboratory confirmed, and 35 (0.02 %) were fatal. The median age of reported cases was 3.12 years (interquartile range 1.96–4.39). Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enterovirus 71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses accounted for 39.31, 35.36, and 25.33 % of the 12,749 confirmed cases, respectively. Many more severe cases were caused by EV-A71 (χ² = 186.41, df = 1, P < 0.001) and other enteroviruses (χ² = 156.44, df = 1, P < 0.001) than by CV-A16. A large single distinct peak occurred between May and July each year. Spatiotemporal clusters of HFMD were identified in Beijing during 2009–2014. The most likely clusters were detected and tended to move from the southwest (Fengtai and Daxing) southeastwards to Daxing and Tongzhou in 2009–2014. The incidence of HFMD was not randomly distributed, but showed global and local spatial autocorrelations.

Conclusions

There were obvious spatiotemporal clusters of HFMD in Beijing in 2009–2014. High-incidence areas mainly occurred at the junctions of urban and rural zones. More attention should be paid to the epidemiological and spatiotemporal characteristics of HFMD to establish new strategies for its control. Health issues should be especially promoted in kindergartens and at urban–rural junctions.

A literature review and case report of hand, foot and mouth disease in an immunocompetent adult

Background

To report an uncommon case of hand, foot and mouth disease, (HFMD) in an immunocompetent adult; a highly infectious disease, characterized by the appearance of vesicles on the mouth, hands and feet, associated with coxsackieviruses and enteroviruses; including a literature review.

Case report

A 23 year Caucasian male with no medical or surgical history, no allergies, was not taking any medication and smoked ten cigarettes a day, suffering from discomfort in the oral cavity; itching, burning and pain when swallowing associated with small erythematous lesions located on the hard palate, and small ulcers in tonsillar pillars and right buccal mucosa. Mild fever of 37.8 °C and general malaise. The patient reported he had had contact with a child diagnosed with HFMD. From his background and symptoms, the patient was diagnosed with HFMD. Following symptomatic treatment, the symptoms remitted in 7 days.

Methods

A literature review in MEDLINE (PubMed). The inclusion criteria were for studies on humans over the last 5 years, using the keywords HFMD.

Results

We found 925 articles, which were subsequently reduced to 52 documents after applying the inclusion criteria. Maculopapular lesions were found on hands and feet.

Conclusions

Dentists may have a key role diagnosing the disease. A surveillance system to predict future outbreaks, encourage early diagnosis, put appropriate public health measures in place and research vaccine development is vitally important in order to control the disease.

Two models for changes of EV71 immunity in infants and young children

Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) has been associated with outbreaks of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Susceptibility to EV71 is associated with age, but few studies have been accomplished to measure such a relationship. A better understanding of the connection between susceptibility and age is necessary to develop strategies for control of HFMD. In 2010, a survey of an epidemic of EV71 was conducted in a northern city of Jiangsu Province in China. Samples were tested serologically to identify the EV71 neutralizing antibody. Two different mathematical models have now been employed to describe how this antibody varied with age, and parameters in the model were estimated from survey data. Both models depicted the variations in EV71-neutralizing antibody. Seroprevalence was high for neonates but decreased to near zero at 5 months of age. Subsequently, the EV71 antibody levels increased and then remained stable after about 36 months. For models 1 and 2, values for the coefficient of determination (R(2)) were 0.9458 and 0.9576, and values for root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.0755 and 0.0752, respectively. Model 2, formulated from the characteristics of development of the immune system, was more reliable than model 1, formulated from survey data, because the impact of the survey on the structure of the model was removed. Moreover, model 2 provided the possibility to define the parameters in a biological sense.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination

BACKGROUND

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by serotypes of the Enterovirus A species in the genus Enterovirus of the Picornaviridae family. The disease has had a substantial burden throughout East and Southeast Asia over the past 15 y. China reported 9 million cases of HFMD between 2008 and 2013, with the two serotypes Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) being responsible for the majority of these cases. Three recent phase 3 clinical trials showed that inactivated monovalent EV-A71 vaccines manufactured in China were highly efficacious against HFMD associated with EV-A71, but offered no protection against HFMD caused by CV-A16. To better inform vaccination policy, we used mathematical models to evaluate the effect of prospective vaccination against EV-A71-associated HFMD and the potential risk of serotype replacement by CV-A16. We also extended the model to address the co-circulation, and implications for vaccination, of additional non-EV-A71, non-CV-A16 serotypes of enterovirus.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Weekly reports of HFMD incidence from 31 provinces in Mainland China from 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013 were used to fit multi-serotype time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) epidemic models. We obtained good model fit for the two-serotype TSIR with cross-protection, capturing the seasonality and geographic heterogeneity of province-level transmission, with strong correlation between the observed and simulated epidemic series. The national estimate of the basic reproduction number, R0, weighted by provincial population size, was 26.63 for EV-A71 (interquartile range [IQR]: 23.14, 30.40) and 27.13 for CV-A16 (IQR: 23.15, 31.34), with considerable variation between provinces (however, predictions about the overall impact of vaccination were robust to this variation). EV-A71 incidence was projected to decrease monotonically with higher coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination. Across provinces, CV-A16 incidence in the post-EV-A71-vaccination period remained either comparable to or only slightly increased from levels prior to vaccination. The duration and strength of cross-protection following infection with EV-A71 or CV-A16 was estimated to be 9.95 wk (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.31, 23.40) in 68% of the population (95% CI: 37%, 96%). Our predictions are limited by the necessarily short and under-sampled time series and the possible circulation of unidentified serotypes, but, nonetheless, sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust in predicting that the vaccine should drastically reduce incidence of EV-A71 without a substantial competitive release of CV-A16.

CONCLUSIONS

The ability of our models to capture the observed epidemic cycles suggests that herd immunity is driving the epidemic dynamics caused by the multiple serotypes of enterovirus. Our results predict that the EV-A71 and CV-A16 serotypes provide a temporary immunizing effect against each other. Achieving high coverage rates of EV-A71 vaccination would be necessary to eliminate the ongoing transmission of EV-A71, but serotype replacement by CV-A16 following EV-A71 vaccination is likely to be transient and minor compared to the corresponding reduction in the burden of EV-A71-associated HFMD. Therefore, a mass EV-A71 vaccination program of infants and young children should provide significant benefits in terms of a reduction in overall HFMD burden.

The Effects of Weather Factors on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Beijing

The morbidity and mortality of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) are increasing in Beijing, China. Previous studies have indicated an association between incidents of HFMD and weather factors. However, the seasonal influence of these factors on the disease is not yet understood, and their relationship with the enterovirus 71 (EV71) and Coxsackie virus A16 (CV-A16) viruses are not well documented. We analysed 84,502 HFMD cases from 2008 to 2011 in Beijing to explore the seasonal influence of weather factors (average temperature [AT], average relative humidity [ARH], total precipitation [TP] and average wind speed [AWS]) on incidents of HFMD by using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The results indicated that weather factors differ significantly in their influence on HFMD depending on the season. AT had the greatest effect among the four weather factors, and while the influence of AT and AWS was greater in the summer than in the winter, the influence of TP was positive in the summer and negative in the winter. ARH was negatively correlated with HFMD. Also, we observed more EV71-associated cases than CV-A16 but there is no convincing evidence to show significant differences between the influences of the weather factors on EV71 and CV-A16.

Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics

Background

Epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in East Asia have been a serious annual public health problem. Previous studies in China and island-type territories in East Asia showed that the onset of HFMD epidemics evolved with increased latitude. Based on the natural characteristics of the epidemics, we developed regression models for issuing aberration alerts and predictions.

Methods

HFMD sentinel surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 in Japan are used in this study, covering 365 weeks and 47 prefectures between 24 and 46° of north latitude. Average HFMD cases per sentinel are standardized as Z rates. We fit weekly Z rate differences between prefectures located in the south and north of a designated prefecture with linear regression models to detect the surging trend of the epidemic for the prefecture. We propose a rule for issuing an aberration alert determined by the strength of the upward trend of south–north Z rate differences in the previous few weeks. In addition to the warning, we predict a Z rate for the next week with a 95 % confidence interval.

Results

We selected Tokyo and Kyoto for evaluating the proposed approach to aberration detection. Overall, the peaks of epidemics in Tokyo mostly occurred in weeks 28–31, later than in Kyoto, where the disease peaked in weeks 26–31. Positive south–north Z rate differences in both prefectures were clearly observed ahead of the HFMD epidemic cycles. Aberrations in the major epidemics of 2011 and 2013 were successfully detected weeks earlier. The prediction also provided accurate estimates of the epidemic’s trends.

Conclusions

We have used only the latitude, one geographical feature affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD, to develop rules for early aberration detection and prediction. We have also demonstrated that the proposed rules performed well using real data in terms of accuracy and timeliness. Although our approach may provide helpful information for controlling epidemics and minimizing the impact of diseases, the performance could be further improved by including other influential meteorological factors in the proposed latitude-based approach, which is worth further investigation.

Impact of temperature variability on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in Huainan, China

OBJECTIVES

The short-term temperature variation has been shown to be significantly associated with human health. However, little is known about whether temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) have any effect on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). This study aims to explore whether temperature variability has any effect on childhood HFMD.

STUDY DESIGN

Ecological study.

METHODS

The association between meteorological variables and HFMD cases in Huainan, China, from January 1st 2012 to December 31st 2014 was analysed using Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) after controlling for long-term trend and seasonality, mean temperature and relative humidity.

RESULTS

An adverse effect of TCN on childhood HFMD was observed, and the impact of TCN was the greatest at five days lag, with a 10% (95% CI: 4%-15%) increase of daily number of HFMD cases per 3 °C (10th percentile) decrease of TCN. Male children, children aged 0-5 years, scattered children and children in high-risk areas appeared to be more vulnerable to the TCN effect than others. However, there was no significant association between DTR and childhood HFMD.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that TCN drops may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Huainan, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming TCN drops, particularly for those who are male, young, scattered and from high-risk areas.

Time series analysis of reported cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2010 to 2013 in Wuhan, China

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by a group of enteroviruses, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) and Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). In recent decades, Asian countries have experienced frequent and widespread HFMD outbreaks, with deaths predominantly among children. In several Asian countries, epidemics usually peak in the late spring/early summer, with a second small peak in late autumn/early winter. We investigated the possible underlying association between the seasonality of HFMD epidemics and meteorological variables, which could improve our ability to predict HFMD epidemics.

Methods

We used a time series analysis composed of a spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) in the frequency domain and the nonlinear least squares method in the time domain. The time series analysis was applied to three kinds of monthly time series data collected in Wuhan, China, where high-quality surveillance data for HFMD have been collected: (i) reported cases of HFMD, (ii) reported cases of EV-A71 and CVA16 detected in HFMD patients, and (iii) meteorological variables.

Results

In the power spectral densities for HFMD and EV-A71, the dominant spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated for the 1-year and 6-month cycles reproduced the bimodal cycles that were clearly observed in the HFMD and EV-A71 data. The peak months on the LSF curves for the HFMD data were consistent with those for the EV-A71 data. The risk of infection was relatively high at 10 °C ≤ t < 15 °C (t, temperature [°C]) and 15 °C ≤ t < 20 °C, and peaked at 20 °C ≤ t < 25 °C.

Conclusion

In this study, the HFMD infections occurring in Wuhan showed two seasonal peaks, in summer (June) and winter (November or December). The results obtained with a time series analysis suggest that the bimodal seasonal peaks in HFMD epidemics are attributable to EV-A71 epidemics. Our results suggest that controlling the spread of EV-A71 infections when the temperature is approximately 20–25 °C should be considered to prevent HFMD infections in Wuhan, China.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1233-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Bayesian penalized spline models for the analysis of spatio-temporal count data

In recent years, the availability of infectious disease counts in time and space has increased, and consequently, there has been renewed interest in model formulation for such data. In this paper, we describe a model that was motivated by the need to analyze hand, foot, and mouth disease surveillance data in China. The data are aggregated by geographical areas and by week, with the aims of the analysis being to gain insight into the space-time dynamics and to make short-term predictions, which will aid in the implementation of public health campaigns in those areas with a large predicted disease burden. The model we develop decomposes disease-risk into marginal spatial and temporal components and a space-time interaction piece. The latter is the crucial element, and we use a tensor product spline model with a Markov random field prior on the coefficients of the basis functions. The model can be formulated as a Gaussian Markov random field and so fast computation can be carried out using the integrated nested Laplace approximation approach. A simulation study shows that the model can pick up complex space-time structure and our analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease data in the central north region of China provides new insights into the dynamics of the disease.

Studies on Inhibition of Proliferation of Enterovirus-71 by Compound YZ-LY-0

In recent years, hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD), which is caused by Enteroviruses, has emerged as a serious illness. It affects mainly children under the age of five and results in high fatality rates. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is the main causative agent of HFMD in China and currently there are no effective anti-viral drugs available to treat HFMD. In the present study, we screened compounds for inhibition of proliferation of EV71. Compound YZ-LY-0 stalled the life cycle of EV71. The inhibitor exhibited EC₅₀ value of 0.29 μm against SK-EV006 strain of EV71. Notably, YZ-LY-0 had low cytotoxicity (CC₅₀ > 100 μM) and a high selectivity index (over 300) in Vero and RD cells. YZ-LY-0 in combination with an EV71 RdRp inhibitor or an entry inhibitor showed an antagonistic effect at very low concentrations. However, at higher concentrations the inhibitors exhibited a synergistic effect in inhibiting viral replication. Preliminary results on investigation of the mechanism of inhibition indicate that YZ-LY-0 does not block the entry of the virus in the host cell, but instead inhibits an early stage of EV71 replication. Our studies provide a potential clinical therapeutic option against EV71 infections and suggest that a combined application of YZ-LY-0 with other inhibitors could be more effective in the treatment of HFMD.

Intestinal detoxification time of hand-foot-and-mouth disease in children with EV71 infection and the related factors

BACKGROUND

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common pediatric infectious disease caused by a variety of intestinal viruses. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is the primary pathogen that might cause severe symptoms and even death in children with HFMD. This study aimed to investigate the intestinal detoxification time of HFMD children with EV71 infection and its related factors.

METHODS

Sixty-five HFMD children with EV71 infection were followed up. Their stool samples were collected once every 4 to 7 days. Viral nucleic acids were detected by fluorescent polymerase chain reaction until the results became negative. The positive rates of viral nucleic acids were analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method. The Log-rank test and Cox-Mantel test were used to analyze factors affecting the HFMD children with EV71 infection.

RESULTS

On the 2nd, 4th, 6th and 10th week, the positive rates of viral nucleic acids in stool samples of the 65 children were 94.6%, 48.1%, 17.2% and 0, respectively. Univariate analysis showed that the intestinal detoxification time of the children were related to gender, pre-admission disease course, severity of disease, and use of steroids or gamma globulin (P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that the severity of disease was an independent factor affecting the intestinal detoxification time (P<0.05), with a relative risk of 2.418.

CONCLUSIONS

The longest intestinal detoxification time of HFMD children with EV71 infection was 10 weeks. The severity of disease was an important factor affecting the intestinal detoxification time of HFMD children with EV71 infection. Severe HFMD children with EV71 infection had a longer intestinal detoxification time.

Genotypes of the Enterovirus Causing Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in Shanghai, China, 2012-2013

Sporadic HFMD (hand foot and mouth disease, HFMD) cases and outbreaks caused by etiologic agents other than EV71 and CA16 have increased globally. We conducted this study to investigate the prevalence and genetic characteristics of enteroviruses, especially the non-EV71 and non-CA16 enteroviruses, causing HFMD in Shanghai. Clinical specimens were collected from patients with a diagnosis of HFMD. A partial length of VP1 was amplified with RT-PCR and subjected to direct sequencing. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using MEGA 5.0. The ages of the HFMD cases ranged from 3 to 96 months, and the male/female ratio was 1.41. The median hospital stay was 2.96 days. Up to 18.0% of patients had neurologic system complications such as encephalitis, meningoencephalitis or meningitis. Of the 480 samples, 417 were positive for enterovirus (86.9%) with RT-PCR. A total of 13 enterovirus genotypes were identified. The most frequent genotypes were CA6 (31.9%), EV71 (30.6%), CA16 (8.8%) and CA10 (7.5%). Infections with CA6, EV71, CA16 and CA10 were prevalent throughout the years of study, while the proportion of CA6 notably increased from Sep. 2012 to Dec. 2013. Phylogenetic analyses showed that EV71 strains belonged to the C4a subgenogroup and CA16 was identified as B1b subgenogroup. The CA6 strains were assigned to genogroup F, whereas the CA10 strains were assigned to genogroup D. Patients infected with CA6 were typically younger, had a shorter hospital stay and had a lower incidence of neurologic system complications when compared to patients infected with EV71. Our study demonstrates that the enterovirus genotypes causing HFMD were diversified, and there was an increasing prevalence of the non-EV71 and non-CA16 enteroviruses from 2012 to 2013. CA6 was the most predominant pathogen causing HFMD from Sep. 2012 to Dec. 2013, and it often caused relatively mild HFMD symptoms. Most severe HFMD cases were associated with EV71 infection.

Immunity and clinical efficacy of an inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine in healthy Chinese children: a report of further observations

BACKGROUND

To investigate the long-term effects on immunity of an inactivated enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine and its protective efficacy.

METHODS

A sub-cohort of 1,100 volunteers from Guangxi Province in China was eligible for enrolment and randomly administered either the EV71 vaccine or a placebo on days 0 and 28 in a phase III clinical trial and then observed for the following 2 years with approval by an independent ethics committee of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China. Serum samples from the 350 participants who provided a full series of blood samples (at all the sampling points) within the 2-year period were collected. Vaccine-induced immune effects, including the neutralizing antibody titres and cross-protection against different genotypes of EV71, were examined. This study also evaluated the protective efficacy of this vaccine based upon clinical diagnosis.

RESULTS

This sub-cohort showed a >60% drop-out rate over 2 years. The seroconversion rates among the 161 immunized subjects remained >95% at the end of study. The geometric mean titres of neutralizing antibodies (anti-genotype C4) 360 days after vaccination in 350 subjects were 81.0 (subjects aged 6-11 months), 98.4 (12-23 months), 95.0 (24-35 months), and 81.8 (36-71 months). These titres subsequently increased to 423.1, 659.0, 545.0, and 321.9, respectively, at 540 days post-immunization (d.p.i.), and similar levels were maintained at 720 d.p.i. Higher IFN-γ/IL-4-specific responses to the C4 genotype of EV71 and cross-neutralization reactivity against major EV71 genotype strains were observed in the vaccine group compared to those in the placebo group. Five EV71-infected subjects were observed in the placebo-treated control group and none in the vaccine-immunized group in per-protocol analysis.

CONCLUSION

These results are consistent with the induction of dynamic immune responses and protective efficacy of the vaccine against most circulating EV71 strains.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01569581, Trial registration date: March 2012.

Clinical Features for Mild Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Background

Mild hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is at a critical stage owing to its ease of communicability and a higher risk of developing severe complications and death. Clinical diagnosis of mild HFMD was made by the presenting symptoms and signs (symptoms in brief) alone. We aim to evaluate the frequencies of symptoms in a retrospective case series study.

Methods

We collected epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from outpatient and inpatient settings on the clinical data warehouse system. We principally described the frequencies of symptoms of mild HFMD. Correlations between symptoms with laboratory-confirmed cases were then analyzed.

Results

The clinical data warehouse system included 3649 probable cases, between 2010 and 2012, of which 956 (26.20%) were laboratory confirmed. The peak incidence was identified in children 2 years of age. A total of 370 of the 956 laboratory confirmed cases (38.70%) were associated with enterovirus 71 (EV71). Logistic regression analysis adjusted for geographical variables, age, sex, month of onset, and time from onset to diagnosis showed that the clinical features constipation (P<0.0001; adjusted OR, 95%CI (2.99, 2.28–3.91)), and blisters (P<0.0001; adjusted OR, 95%CI (2.16, 1.82–2.56)) were positively correlated with the confirmed cases.

Conclusions

This is the largest case series study, including all the guideline-mentioned symptoms of mild HFMD. Our findings suggest that blisters and constipation should be considered as potential warning signs while front-line clinicians manage surges of children diagnosed with mild HFMD during a pandemic.

A Broadly Cross-protective Vaccine Presenting the Neighboring Epitopes within the VP1 GH Loop and VP2 EF Loop of Enterovirus 71

Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) are the major etiological agents of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and are often associated with neurological complications. Currently, several vaccine types are being developed for EV71 and CA16. In this study, we constructed a bivalent chimeric virus-like particle (VLP) presenting the VP1 (aa208-222) and VP2 (aa141-155) epitopes of EV71 using hepatitis B virus core protein (HBc) as a carrier, designated HBc-E1/2. Immunization with the chimeric VLPs HBc-E1/2 induced higher IgG titers and neutralization titers against EV71 and CA16 in vitro than immunization with only one epitope incorporated into HBc. Importantly, passive immunization with the recombinant HBc-E2 particles protected neonatal mice against lethal EV71 and CA16 infections. We demonstrate that anti-VP2 (aa141-155) sera bound authentic CA16 viral particles, whereas anti-VP1 (aa208-222) sera could not. Moreover, the anti-VP2 (aa141-155) antibodies inhibited the binding of human serum to virions, which demonstrated that the VP2 epitope is immunodominant between EV71 and CA16. These results illustrated that the chimeric VLP HBc-E1/2 is a promising candidate for a broad-spectrum HFMD vaccine, and also reveals mechanisms of protection by the neighboring linear epitopes of the VP1 GH and VP2 EF loops.

Effect of Meteorological and Geographical Factors on the Epidemics of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Island-Type Territory, East Asia

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has threatened East Asia for more than three decades and has become an important public health issue owing to its severe sequelae and mortality among children. The lack of effective treatment and vaccine for HFMD highlights the urgent need for efficiently integrated early warning surveillance systems in the region. In this study, we try to integrate the available surveillance and weather data in East Asia to elucidate possible spatiotemporal correlations and weather conditions among different areas from low to high latitude. The general additive model (GAM) was applied to understand the association between HFMD and latitude, as well as meteorological factors for islands in East Asia, namely, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, from 2012 to 2014. The results revealed that latitude was the most important explanatory factor associated with the timing and amplitude of HFMD epidemics (P < 0.0001). Meteorological factors including higher dew point, lower visibility, and lower wind speed were significantly associated with the rise of epidemics (P < 0.01). In summary, weather conditions and geographic location could play some role in affecting HFMD epidemics. Regional integrated surveillance of HFMD in East Asia is needed for mitigating the disease risk.

Phylodynamics of Enterovirus A71-Associated Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Viet Nam

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is a major cause of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and is particularly prevalent in parts of Southeast Asia, affecting thousands of children and infants each year. Revealing the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of EV-A71 through time and space is central to understanding its outbreak potential. We generated the full genome sequences of 200 EV-A71 strains sampled from various locations in Viet Nam between 2011 and 2013 and used these sequence data to determine the evolutionary history and phylodynamics of EV-A71 in Viet Nam, providing estimates of the effective reproduction number (Re) of the infection through time. In addition, we described the phylogeography of EV-A71 throughout Southeast Asia, documenting patterns of viral gene flow. Accordingly, our analysis reveals that a rapid genogroup switch from C4 to B5 likely took place during 2012 in Viet Nam. We show that the Re of subgenogroup C4 decreased during the time frame of sampling, whereas that of B5 increased and remained >1 at the end of 2013, corresponding to a rise in B5 prevalence. Our study reveals that the subgenogroup B5 virus that emerged into Viet Nam is closely related to variants that were responsible for large epidemics in Malaysia and Taiwan and therefore extends our knowledge regarding its associated area of endemicity. Subgenogroup B5 evidently has the potential to cause more widespread outbreaks across Southeast Asia.

IMPORTANCE

EV-A71 is one of many viruses that cause HFMD, a common syndrome that largely affects infants and children. HFMD usually causes only mild illness with no long-term consequences. Occasionally, however, severe infection may arise, especially in very young children, causing neurological complications and even death. EV-A71 is highly contagious and is associated with the most severe HFMD cases, with large and frequent epidemics of the virus recorded worldwide. Although major advances have been made in the development of a potential EV-A71 vaccine, there is no current prevention and little is known about the patterns and dynamics of EV-A71 spread. In this study, we utilize full-length genome sequence data obtained from HFMD patients in Viet Nam, a geographical region where the disease has been endemic since 2003, to characterize the phylodynamics of this important emerging virus.

The Epidemiological Study of Coxsackievirus A6 revealing Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Epidemic patterns in Guangdong, China

Enterovirus A71 (EVA71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CVA16) are regarded as the two major causative pathogens in hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics. However, CVA6, previously largely ignored, became the predominant pathogen in China in 2013. In this study, we describe the epidemiological trendsofCVA6 during the annual HFMD outbreaks from 2008 to 2013 in Guangdong, China. The study results show that CVA6 has been one of three major causative agents of HFMD epidemics since 2009. The periodic rotation and dominance of the three pathogens, EVA71, CVA16 and CVA6, may have contributed to the continuously increasing HFMD epidemics. Moreover, phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 gene shows that major circulating CVA6 strains collected from 2009 to 2013 are distinct from the earlier strains collected before 2009. In conclusion, the discovery from this research investigating epidemiological trends of CVA6 from 2008 to 2013 explains the possible pattern of the continuous HFMD epidemic in China. The etiological change pattern also highlights the need for improvement for pathogen surveillance and vaccine strategies for HFMD control in China.

Statistical monitoring of the hand, foot and mouth disease in China

In a period starting around 2007, the Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) became wide-spreading in China, and the Chinese public health was seriously threatened. To prevent the outbreak of infectious diseases like HFMD, effective disease surveillance systems would be especially helpful to give signals of disease outbreaks as early as possible. Statistical process control (SPC) charts provide a major statistical tool in industrial quality control for detecting product defectives in a timely manner. In recent years, SPC charts have been used for disease surveillance. However, disease surveillance data often have much more complicated structures, compared to the data collected from industrial production lines. Major challenges, including lack of in-control data, complex seasonal effects, and spatio-temporal correlations, make the surveillance data difficult to handle. In this article, we propose a three-step procedure for analyzing disease surveillance data, and our procedure is demonstrated using the HFMD data collected during 2008-2009 in China. Our method uses nonparametric longitudinal data and time series analysis methods to eliminate the possible impact of seasonality and temporal correlation before the disease incidence data are sequentially monitored by a SPC chart. At both national and provincial levels, our proposed method can effectively detect the increasing trend of disease incidence rate before the disease becomes wide-spreading.

Identification of a common epitope between enterovirus 71 and human MED25 proteins which may explain virus-associated neurological disease

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a major causative pathogen of hand, foot and mouth disease with especially severe neurologic complications, which mainly account for fatalities from this disease. To date, the pathogenesis of EV71 in the central neurons system has remained unclear. Cytokine-mediated immunopathogenesis and nervous tissue damage by virus proliferation are two widely speculated causes of the neurological disease. To further study the pathogenesis, we identified a common epitope (co-epitope) between EV71 VP1 and human mediator complex subunit 25 (MED25) highly expressed in brain stem. A monoclonal antibody (2H2) against the co-epitope was prepared, and its interaction with MED25 was examined by ELISA, immunofluorescence assay and Western blot in vitro and by live small animal imaging in vivo. Additionally, 2H2 could bind to both VP1 and MED25 with the affinity constant (Kd) of 10⁻⁷ M as determined by the ForteBio Octet System. Intravenously injected 2H2 was distributed in brain stem of mice after seven days of EV71 infection. Interestingly, 2H2-like antibodies were detected in the serum of EV71-infected patients. These findings suggest that EV71 infection induces the production of antibodies that can bind to autoantigens expressed in nervous tissue and maybe further trigger autoimmune reactions resulting in neurological disease.

Spatio-temporal analysis of the relationship between climate and hand, foot, and mouth disease in Shandong province, China, 2008-2012

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is the most common communicable disease in China. Shandong Province is one of the most seriously affected areas. The distribution of HFMD had spatial heterogeneity and seasonal characteristic in this setting. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between climate and HFMD by a Bayesian approach from spatio-temporal interactions perspective.

Methods

The HFMD data of Shandong Province during 2008–2012 were derived from the China National Disease Surveillance Reporting and Management System. And six climatic indicators were obtained from the Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province. The global spatial autocorrelation statistic (Moran’s I) was used to detect the spatial autocorrelation of HFMD cases in each year. The optimal one among four Bayesian models was further adopted to estimate the relative risk of the occurrence of HFMD via Markov chain Monte Carlo.

Results

The annual average incidence rate of HFMD was 104.40 per 100,000 in Shandong Province. Positive spatial autocorrelation appeared at county level (Moran’s I ≥0.30, P < 0.001). The best fitting Spatio-temporal interactive model showed that annual average temperature, annual average pressure, annual average relative humidity, annual average wind speed and annual sunshine hours were significantly positive related to the occurrence of HFMD. The estimated relative risk of 36, 87, 91, 79, 65 out of 140 counties for 2008–2012 respectively were significantly more than 1.

Conclusions

There were obvious spatio-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD in Shandong Province, and the climatic indicators were associated with the epidemic of HFMD. Bayesian approach should be recommended to capture the spatial-temporal pattern of HFMD.

Epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Henan, China, 2008-2013

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood illness caused by enteroviruses. HFMD outbreaks and reported cases have sharply increased in China since 2008. Epidemiological and clinical data of HFMD cases reported in Henan Province were collected from 2008 to 2013. Clinical specimens were obtained from a subset of these cases. Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the time, region and population distribution. The VP1 gene from EV71 and CA16 isolates was amplified, and the sequences were analyzed. 400,264 cases of HFMD were reported in this study, including 22,309 severe and 141 fatal cases. Incidence peaked between April and May. Laboratory confirmation was obtained for 27,692 (6.9%) cases; EV71, CA16, and other enteroviruses accounted for 59.5%, 14.1%, 26.4%, respectively. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that EV71 belonged to the C4a evolution branch of C4 sub-genotype and CA16 belonged to subtype B1a or B1b. The occurrence of HFMD in Henan was closely related to season, age and region distribution. Children under five were the most affected population. The major pathogens causing HFMD and their genotypes have not notably changed in Henan. The data strongly support the importance of EV71 vaccination in a high population density area such as Henan, China.

The effect of meteorological variables on the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease in four major cities of shanxi province, China: a time series data analysis (2009-2013)

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions.

Understanding of the impact of weather variables on HFMD transmission remains limited due to various local climatic conditions, socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics in different regions. This study provides quantitative evidence that the incidence of HFMD cases was significantly associated with temperature in Shanxi Province, North China. The delayed effects of weather variables on HFMD dictate different public health responses in 4 major cities in Shanxi Province. The results may provide a direction for local community and health authorities to perform public health actions, and the SARIMA models are helpful in the prediction of epidemics, determination of high-risk areas and susceptible populations, allocation of health resources, and the formulation of relevant prevention strategies. In order to reduce future risks of climatic variations on HFMD epidemics, similar studies in other geographical areas are needed, together with a longer study period to enable trend analysis which takes into consideration local weather conditions and demographic characteristics.

Case-fatality of hand, foot and mouth disease associated with EV71: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) associated with enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern. This study aimed to estimate the case-fatality of HFMD associated with EV71 on the basis of a meta-analysis. We searched PubMed, Cochrane, Web of Science, Elsevier, CNKI, Wanfang, and VIP databases. Two authors independently selected relevant studies. The pooled estimate of case-fatality was calculated using a random-effects model. Potential sources of heterogeneity were explored using subgroup analysis, sensitivity analysis and meta-regression. We identified 14 eligible studies with a total population of 112 546. The random-effects pooled case-fatality was 1·7% (95% confidence interval 1·2–2·4). The funnel plot was asymmetrical. The estimate of case-fatality was highest in mainland China (1·8%). Removal of eight local Chinese studies decreased the original estimate. The pooled case-fatality in the period of 1998–2007 (1·5%) was lower than that in the period 2008–2012 (1·8%). Control measures for HFMD associated with EV71 are essential because of the increased case-fatality over time, especially in East Asia.

Peptidyl aldehyde NK-1.8k suppresses enterovirus 71 and enterovirus 68 infection by targeting protease 3C

Enterovirus (EV) is one of the major causative agents of hand, foot, and mouth disease in the Pacific-Asia region. In particular, EV71 causes severe central nervous system infections, and the fatality rates from EV71 infection are high. Moreover, an outbreak of respiratory illnesses caused by an emerging EV, EV68, recently occurred among over 1,000 young children in the United States and was also associated with neurological infections. Although enterovirus has emerged as a considerable global public health threat, no antiviral drug for clinical use is available. In the present work, we screened our compound library for agents targeting viral protease and identified a peptidyl aldehyde, NK-1.8k, that inhibits the proliferation of different EV71 strains and one EV68 strain and that had a 50% effective concentration of 90 nM. Low cytotoxicity (50% cytotoxic concentration, >200 μM) indicated a high selective index of over 2,000. We further characterized a single amino acid substitution inside protease 3C (3C(pro)), N69S, which conferred EV71 resistance to NK-1.8k, possibly by increasing the flexibility of the substrate binding pocket of 3C(pro). The combination of NK-1.8k and an EV71 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitor or entry inhibitor exhibited a strong synergistic anti-EV71 effect. Our findings suggest that NK-1.8k could potentially be developed for anti-EV therapy.

A study of spatiotemporal delay in hand, foot and mouth disease in response to weather variations based on SVD: a case study in Shandong Province, China

Background

A large number of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks was reported during 2008 in China. However, little is known about the effects of meteorological conditions on different temporal and spatial scales on HFMD incidence in children. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between meteorological data on various temporal and spatial scales and HFMD incidence among children in Shandong Province, China.

Methods

The association between weekly HFMD cases and meteorological data on different temporal and spatial scales in Shandong Province from May 2008 to July 2008 and September 2008 to October 2008 was analyzed, using buffer analysis and the singular value decomposition method.

Results

Wind speed within a 50-km buffer circle of counties in Shandong Province with two-week lag and RH within a 10-km buffer circle of counties with eight-week lag were significantly associated with HFMD incidence. We found a positive correlation between wind speed within the 50-km buffer circle in the prior two weeks and wind speed within the province in the prior one week.

Conclusions

This study revealed strong associations between HFMD incidence in children and wind speed and RH. Thus, meteorological anomalies in the prior two or eight weeks could be used as a valid tool for detecting anomalies during the peak periods of infectious disease.

Antivirals against enteroviruses: a critical review from a public-health perspective

The enteroviruses (EVs) of the Picornaviridae family are the most common viral pathogens known. Most EV infections are mild and self-limiting but manifestations can be severe in children and immunodeficient individuals. Antiviral development is actively pursued to benefit these high-risk patients and, given the alarming problem of antimicrobial drug resistance, antiviral drug resistance is a public-health concern. Picornavirus antivirals can be used off-label or as part of outbreak control measures. They may be used in the final stages of poliovirus eradication and to mitigate EV-A71 outbreaks. We review the potential emergence of drug-resistant strains and their impact on EV transmission and endemic circulation. We include non-picornavirus antivirals that inhibit EV replication, for example, ribavirin, a treatment for infection with HCV, and amantadine, a treatment for influenza A. They may have spurred resistance emergence in HCV or influenza A patients who are unknowingly coinfected with EV. The public-health challenge is always to find a balance between individual benefit and the long-term health of the larger population.

Workshop on use of intravenous immunoglobulin in hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast Asia

The South East Asia Infectious Disease Clinical Research Network convened subject matter experts at a workshop to make consensus recommendations for study design of a clinical trial for use of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIg) in severe hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). HFMD is a highly contagious emerging infection among children in the region, a small proportion of whom develop neurologic and cardiopulmonary complications with high case-fatality rates. The use of IVIg for treatment of severe disease is widespread and a part of local, national, and international guidelines, but no clinical evidence warrants the use of this drug, which is expensive and has potentially serious side effects. During a 2-day workshop in March 2014, a group of HFMD experts reviewed the current evidence related to use of IVIg in HFMD and discussed potential study design, feasibility, inclusion and exclusion criteria, sample size, primary and secondary endpoints, and subsidiary studies for a randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

Associations between extreme precipitation and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease in urban and rural areas in Hefei, China

BACKGROUND

Understanding the relationship between extreme weather events and childhood hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is important in the context of climate change. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD in Hefei, China, and further, to explore whether the association varied across urban and rural areas.

METHODS

Daily data on HFMD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 2010 January 1st to 2012 December 31st were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on mean temperature, relative humidity and precipitation during the same period were supplied by Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. We used a Poisson linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the association between extreme precipitation (≥90th precipitation) and childhood HFMD, controlling for mean temperature, humidity, day of week, and long-term trend.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant association between extreme precipitation and childhood HFMD. The effect of extreme precipitation on childhood HFMD was the greatest at six days lag, with a 5.12% (95% confident interval: 2.7-7.57%) increase of childhood HFMD for an extreme precipitation event versus no precipitation. Notably, urban children and children aged 0-4 years were particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme precipitation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that extreme precipitation may increase the incidence of childhood HFMD in Hefei, highlighting the importance of protecting children from forthcoming extreme precipitation, particularly for those who are young and from urban areas.

Risk factors for critical disease and death from hand, foot and mouth disease

BACKGROUND

There has been a high mortality and morbidity rate of critical and fatal patients from hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China in recent. Causes for development of critical and fatal disease remain unclear.

METHODS

We performed a case-control study to assess the association between use of drugs and development of critical disease and death from HFMD.

RESULTS

We found that glucocorticoids treatment was associated with a greater incidence of severe HFMD, whereas andrographolides treatment was associated with a protective effect when they are used for treatment within 48 hours after onset or before being diagnosed as critical.

CONCLUSIONS

We recommend that glucocorticoids should not be used for mild HFMD and andrographolides should undergo clinical trials for treatment of enterovirus 71 infections.

Circulation of Coxsackievirus A6 in hand-foot-mouth disease in Guangzhou, 2010-2012

Background

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is usually caused by Enterovirus 71(EV71), and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Guangzhou, the biggest city of South China. However, Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) were observed increased dramatically from 2010–2012.

Methods

In order to understand and to describe the epidemiologic and genetic characteristics of CV-A6, specimens of 5482 suspected HFMD cases were collected and examined by real-time fluorescence PCR. All samples positive for enteroviruses were analyzed by descriptive statistics. Phylogenetic analysis of CV-A6 based on the VP1 sequences was performed to investigate molecular and evolutionary characteristics.

Results

Coxsackievirus A6 increased dramatically from 9.04% in 2010 to 23.21% in 2012 and became one of the main causative agents of HFMD in Guangzhou. CV-A6 attack rates were highest in one to two year olds (33.14%). Typical clinic symptoms of CV-A6 HFMD include fever (589/720, 81.81%), maculopopular rash and vesicular exanthema around the perioral area (408/720, 56.66%), intraoral (545/720, 75.69%), the buttock (395/720, 54.86%), the trunk (244/720, 33.89%), the knee (188/720, 26.11%), and the dorsal aspects of hands (437/720, 60.69%). Phylogenetic analysis showed the CV-A6 isolates in this study belonged to Cluster A1 and were similar to those found in Shanghai in 2011 and 2012 (JX495148, KC414735), Shenzhen in 2011 (JX473394), Japan in 2011 (AB649243, AB649246), France in 2010(HE572928), Thailand in 2012(JX556564) and Israel in 2012 and 2013(.KF991010, KF991012).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1743-422X-11-157) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dominant CD4-dependent RNA-dependent RNA polymerase-specific T-cell responses in children acutely infected with human enterovirus 71 and healthy adult controls

Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) is one of the major causes of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), which leads to significant mortality in infected children. A prophylactic vaccine is urgently needed. However, little is known about the protective T-cell immunity in individuals infected with the EV71 virus. In this study, we performed a comprehensive ex vivo interferon-γ ELISPOT analysis in 31 children infected with EV71 as well as in 40 healthy adult controls of the CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses to overlapping peptides spanning the VP1 structural protein and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) non-structural protein. EV71-specific CD4 T-cell responses were detected in most of the acute patients and were mostly CD4-dependent RdRp-specific responses. CD8-dependent VP1 and RdRp-specific responses were also detected in a small proportion of recently infected children. There was no significant association between the strength of the T-cell responses and disease severity observed during the acute EV71 infection phase. Interestingly, an RdRp-specific, but no VP1-specific, CD4-dependent T-cell response was detected in 30% of the adult controls, and no T-cell responses were detected in healthy children. In addition, 24 individual peptides containing potential T-cell epitope regions were identified. The data suggest that CD4-dependent RdRp-specific T-cell responses may play an important role in protective immunity, and the epitopes identified in this study should provide valuable information for future therapeutic and prophylactic vaccine design as well as basic research.