101
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Verba JT, Pennino MG, Coll M, Lopes PFM. Assessing drivers of tropical and subtropical marine fish collapses of Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 702:134940. [PMID: 31733552 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134940] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2019] [Revised: 09/27/2019] [Accepted: 10/10/2019] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Overfishing is a concerning threat that can lead to the collapse of fish stocks. We assessed the combinations of factors, including biological traits, types of exploitation and responses to sea temperature and salinity changes, that drive species to collapse in the Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) tropical and subtropical regions. We applied a catch-based method of stock classification and a catch time series of 61 years from 132 exploited fish species. Species were categorized as Collapsed, Overexploited, Fully Exploited or in Development, and we used a GAM analysis to understand their categorization over time. Furthermore, a Redundancy Analysis was developed to assess the species characteristics that best predicted each exploitation category. Twelve species were classified as Collapsed, 55 as Overexploited, 46 as Fully Exploited and 19 as in Development. Tropical and subtropical exploited species collapses in Brazil were best explained by a complex combination of a negative impact of warmer sea temperatures, fishery exploitation and specific life-history traits. A synergistic interaction between these factors could bring species to collapse. We hypothesize that the exploitation of species with vulnerable traits may alter how these species respond to temperature and, therefore, lead them to collapse given that intense exploitation may affect their ability to respond to temperature increases. Measures to mitigate climate change impacts should take into consideration incentives to decrease the exploitation of vulnerable species and, specifically, consider species with more sensitive biological traits. Such measures are also important to minimize the socioeconomic impacts on the people that depend on these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julia Tovar Verba
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil; Conservation Genetics Lab, Macquarie University, Australia.
| | - Maria Grazia Pennino
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Vigo, Spain
| | - Marta Coll
- Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC), Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, Barcelona, Spain.
| | - Priscila F M Lopes
- Fishing Ecology, Management, and Economics, Ecology Department, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil; Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
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102
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Whelan S, Hatch SA, Irons DB, McKnight A, Elliott KH. Increased summer food supply decreases non-breeding movement in black-legged kittiwakes. Biol Lett 2020; 16:20190725. [PMID: 31937217 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2019.0725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Individual condition at one stage of the annual cycle is expected to influence behaviour during subsequent stages, yet experimental evidence of food-mediated carry-over effects is scarce. We used a food supplementation experiment to test the effects of food supply during the breeding season on migration phenology and non-breeding behaviour. We provided an unlimited supply of fish to black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) during their breeding season on Middleton Island, Alaska, monitored reproductive phenology and breeding success, and used light-level geolocation to observe non-breeding behaviour. Among successful breeders, fed kittiwakes departed the colony earlier than unfed controls. Fed kittiwakes travelled less than controls during the breeding season, contracting their non-breeding range. Our results demonstrate that food supply during the breeding season affects non-breeding phenology, movement and distribution, providing a potential behavioural mechanism underlying observed survival costs of reproduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shannon Whelan
- Department of Natural Resources Sciences, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec, Canada
| | - Scott A Hatch
- Institute for Seabird Research and Conservation, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - David B Irons
- Migratory Bird Management, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Alyson McKnight
- School of Biodiversity Conservation, Unity College, Unity, ME, USA
| | - Kyle H Elliott
- Department of Natural Resources Sciences, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, Quebec, Canada
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103
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Bryndum-Buchholz A, Prentice F, Tittensor DP, Blanchard JL, Cheung WW, Christensen V, Galbraith ED, Maury O, Lotze HK. Differing marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between Canada’s three oceans. Facets (Ott) 2020. [DOI: 10.1139/facets-2019-0035] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Under climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. Outcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. Using an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in Canada’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) under four standardized emissions scenarios. By 2099, under business-as-usual emissions (RCP8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of −7.7% (±29.5%) within the Canadian EEZ, dominated by declines in the Pacific (−24% ± 24.5%) and Atlantic (−25.5% ± 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the Canadian Arctic (+26.2% ± 38.4%). Lower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. Individual model projections were most consistent in the Atlantic and Pacific, but highly variable in the Arctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. Different trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of Canada’s marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Faelan Prentice
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Derek P. Tittensor
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
| | - Julia L. Blanchard
- Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Center for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, 20 Castray Esplanade, Battery Point TAS 7004, Private Bag 129, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia
| | - William W.L. Cheung
- Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program and Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Villy Christensen
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada
| | - Eric D. Galbraith
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), 08010 Barcelona, Spain
- Department of Mathematics, Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain
| | - Olivier Maury
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), MARBEC (IRD, University of Montpellier, IFREMER, CNRS), 34203 Sète, France
- Department of Oceanography, Marine Research Institute, University of Cape Town, 7701 Rondebosch, South Africa
| | - Heike K. Lotze
- Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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104
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Delany-Crowe T, Marinova D, Fisher M, McGreevy M, Baum F. Australian policies on water management and climate change: are they supporting the sustainable development goals and improved health and well-being? Global Health 2019; 15:68. [PMID: 31847858 PMCID: PMC6918614 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-019-0509-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2019] [Accepted: 10/21/2019] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sustainable management of the natural environment is essential. Continued environmental degradation will lead to worsened health outcomes in countries and across generations. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a framework for viewing the preservation of natural environments and the promotion of health, well-being and health equity as interconnected pursuits. Within the SDG framework the goals of promoting environmental sustainability and human health are unified through attention to the social determinants of health and health equity (SDH/HE). This paper presents findings from a document analysis of all Australian environment sector policies and selected legislation to examine whether and how current approaches support progress toward achieving SDG goals on water, climate change, and marine ecosystems (Goals 6, 13 and 14), and to consider implications for health and health equity. RESULTS Consideration of a broad range of SDH/HE was evident in the analysed documents. Related collaborations between environment and health sectors were identified, but the bulk of proposed actions on SDH/HE were initiated by the environment sector as part of its core business. Strengths of Australian policy in regard to SDGs 6, 13 and 14 are reflected in recognition of the effects of climate change, a strong cohesive approach to marine park protection, and recognition of the need to protect existing water and sanitation systems from future threats. However, climate change strategies focus predominately on resilience, adaptation and heat related health effects, rather than on more comprehensive mitigation policies. The findings emphasise the importance of strengthened cross-sectoral action to address both the drivers and effects of environmental degradation. A lack of policy coherence between jurisdictions was also evident in several areas, compounded by inadequate national guidance, where vague strategies and non-specific devolution of responsibilities are likely to compromise coordination and accountability. CONCLUSIONS Evidence on planetary health recognises the interconnectedness of environmental and human health and, as such, suggests that ineffective management of climate change and water pose serious risks to both the natural environment and human well-being. To address these risks more effectively, and to achieve the SDGs, our findings indicate that cross-jurisdiction policy coherence and national coordination must be improved. In addition, more action to address global inequities is required, along with more comprehensive approaches to climate change mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toni Delany-Crowe
- Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia.
| | - Dora Marinova
- Sustainability Policy Institute, Curtin University, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Matt Fisher
- Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Michael McGreevy
- Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Fran Baum
- Southgate Institute for Health, Society and Equity, Flinders University, Adelaide, Australia
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105
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Abstract
Beyond their value as a natural resource, marine fisheries employ an estimated 18.4 million commercial harvesters worldwide. Previous research describes how climate change can affect fish populations, but how it will impact fishing employment and communities is not yet understood. New England, which employs 34,000 commercial harvesters, has a well-documented management history and some of the world’s fastest-warming waters. This paper provides empirical evidence that fluctuations in a regional climate index reduced county-level fishing employment in New England by an average of 16% between 1996 and 2017. The findings cannot be extrapolated to other regions without further study, but they demonstrate how climate can be linked to fishing employment at a regional level via a biophysical pathway. Climate change is already affecting fish productivity and distributions worldwide, yet its impact on fishing labor has not been examined. Here I directly link large-scale climate variability with fishery employment by studying the effects of sea-surface pressure changes in the North Atlantic region, whose waters are among the world’s fastest warming. I find that climate shocks reduce not only regional catch and revenue in the New England fishing sector, but also ultimately county-level wages and employment among commercial harvesters. Each SD increase from the climatic mean decreases county-level fishing employment by 13%, on average. The South Atlantic region serves as a control due to its different ecological response to climate. Overall, I estimate that climate variability from 1996 to 2017 is responsible for a 16% (95% CI: 10% to 22%) decline in county-level fishing employment in New England, beyond the changes in employment attributable to management or other factors. This quantitative evidence linking climate variability and fishing labor has important implications for management in New England, which employs 20% of US commercial harvesters. Because the results are mediated by the local biology and institutions, they cannot be directly extrapolated to other regions. But they show that climate can impact fishing outcomes in ways unaccounted by management and offer a template for study of this relationship in fisheries around the world.
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106
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Thiault L, Mora C, Cinner JE, Cheung WWL, Graham NAJ, Januchowski-Hartley FA, Mouillot D, Sumaila UR, Claudet J. Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2019; 5:eaaw9976. [PMID: 31807697 PMCID: PMC6881155 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw9976] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2019] [Accepted: 10/28/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lauric Thiault
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
- Corresponding author.
| | - Camilo Mora
- Department of Geography, University of Hawai’i at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawai’i 96822, USA
| | - Joshua E. Cinner
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
| | - William W. L. Cheung
- Changing Ocean Research Unit, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | | | - Fraser A. Januchowski-Hartley
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
- UMR ENTROPIE, Nouméa, New Caledonia
| | - David Mouillot
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville 4811, Queensland, Australia
- UMR 9190 MARBEC, IRD-CNRS-UM-IFREMER, Université de Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier Cedex, France
| | - U. Rashid Sumaila
- Fisheries Economics Research Unit, The University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T1Z4, Canada
| | - Joachim Claudet
- National Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278 CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris, France
- Laboratoire d’Excellence CORAIL, Moorea, French Polynesia
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107
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Morson JM, Grothues T, Able KW. Change in larval fish assemblage in a USA east coast estuary estimated from twenty-six years of fixed weekly sampling. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0224157. [PMID: 31644558 PMCID: PMC6808558 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0224157] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2019] [Accepted: 10/07/2019] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is leading to significant alterations to ecosystems all over the world and some of the resulting impacts on fish and fisheries are now becoming apparent. Estuaries, which are highly susceptible to climate change because they are relatively shallow and in close proximity to anthropogenic stressors, provide habitat to many fish species at a critical time in the life history, after transport and just prior to settlement in nurseries. Despite this, the long-term impacts of climate change on larval fish at this critical location/stage in the life history are not well documented. The larval fish assemblage of a coastal estuary was sampled once per week for twenty-six years at a fixed location in southern New Jersey, USA. We used ordination and regression analysis to evaluate the whole assemblage, individual species/family occurrence, and trends in total density and diversity over that time. The larval fish assemblage changed significantly in response to warming water temperatures. In addition, approximately one quarter of the species/families in the assemblage exhibited a statistically significant trend in individual occurrence over time. Of these, all five of the five northern-affiliated species decreased in occurrence while 18 of 21 southern-affiliated species increased in occurrence. Finally, total fish density and species diversity increased over the course of the study. The non-uniform response of the species/families in this larval assemblage is similar to what has been documented in other studies that evaluated the temporal trend of open ocean juvenile and adult fish assemblages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason M. Morson
- Haskin Shellfish Research Laboratory, Rutgers University, Port Norris, NJ, United States of America
| | - Thomas Grothues
- Marine Field Station, Rutgers University, Tuckerton, NJ, United States of America
| | - Kenneth W. Able
- Marine Field Station, Rutgers University, Tuckerton, NJ, United States of America
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108
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Cisneros-Mata MA, Mangin T, Bone J, Rodriguez L, Smith SL, Gaines SD. Fisheries governance in the face of climate change: Assessment of policy reform implications for Mexican fisheries. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0222317. [PMID: 31577835 PMCID: PMC6774473 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0222317] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2018] [Accepted: 08/27/2019] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is driving shifts in the abundance and distribution of marine fish and invertebrates and is having direct and indirect impacts on seafood catches and fishing communities, exacerbating the already negative effects of unsustainably high fishing pressure that exist for some stocks. Although the majority of fisheries in the world are managed at the national or local scale, most existing approaches to assessing climate impacts on fisheries have been developed on a global scale. It is often difficult to translate from the global to regional and local settings because of limited relevant data. To address the need for fisheries management entities to identify those fisheries with the greatest potential for climate change impacts, we present an approach for estimating expected climate change-driven impacts on the productivity and spatial range of fisheries at the regional scale in a data-poor context. We use a set of representative Mexican fisheries as test cases. To assess the implications of climate impacts, we compare biomass, harvest, and profit outcomes from a bioeconomic model under contrasting management policies and with and without climate change. Overall results show that climate change is estimated to negatively affect nearly every fishery in our study. However, the results indicate that overfishing is a greater threat than climate change for these fisheries, hence fixing current management challenges has a greater upside than the projected future costs of moderate levels of climate change. Additionally, this study provides meaningful first approximations of potential effects of both climate change and management reform in Mexican fisheries. Using the climate impact estimations and model outputs, we identify high priority stocks, fleets, and regions for policy reform in Mexico in the face of climate change. This approach can be applied in other data-poor circumstances to focus future research and policy reform efforts on stocks now subject to additional stress due to climate change. Considering their growing relevance as a critical source of protein and micronutrients to nourish our growing population, it is urgent for regions to develop sound fishery management policies in the short-term as they are the most important intervention to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on marine fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Tracey Mangin
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
| | - Jennifer Bone
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
| | - Laura Rodriguez
- Environmental Defense Fund de México A.C., La Paz, BCS, México
| | | | - Steven D. Gaines
- Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara CA, United States of America
- Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States of America
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109
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Lennox RJ, Paukert CP, Aarestrup K, Auger-Méthé M, Baumgartner L, Birnie-Gauvin K, Bøe K, Brink K, Brownscombe JW, Chen Y, Davidsen JG, Eliason EJ, Filous A, Gillanders BM, Helland IP, Horodysky AZ, Januchowski-Hartley SR, Lowerre-Barbieri SK, Lucas MC, Martins EG, Murchie KJ, Pompeu PS, Power M, Raghavan R, Rahel FJ, Secor D, Thiem JD, Thorstad EB, Ueda H, Whoriskey FG, Cooke SJ. One Hundred Pressing Questions on the Future of Global Fish Migration Science, Conservation, and Policy. Front Ecol Evol 2019. [DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2019.00286] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/17/2023] Open
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110
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Free CM, Thorson JT, Pinsky ML, Oken KL, Wiedenmann J, Jensen OP. Response to Comment on "Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production". Science 2019; 365:365/6454/eaax7170. [PMID: 31416936 DOI: 10.1126/science.aax7170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2019] [Accepted: 07/16/2019] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Szuwalski argues that varying age structure can affect surplus production and that recruitment is a better metric of productivity. We explain how our null model controlled for age structure and other processes as explanations for the temperature-production relationship. Surplus production includes growth, recruitment, and other processes and provides a more complete description of food production impacts than does recruitment alone.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M Free
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA. .,Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA
| | - James T Thorson
- Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Seattle, WA, USA.,Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Malin L Pinsky
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Kiva L Oken
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.,School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John Wiedenmann
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Olaf P Jensen
- Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
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111
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Szuwalski C. Comment on "Impacts of historical warming on marine fisheries production". Science 2019; 365:365/6454/eaax5721. [PMID: 31416935 DOI: 10.1126/science.aax5721] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2019] [Accepted: 07/16/2019] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Free et al (Reports, 1 March 2019, p. 979) linked sea surface temperature (SST) to surplus production and estimated a 4% decline in maximum sustainable yield (MSY) since 1930. Changes in MSY are expected when fitting production models to age-structured data, so attributing observed changes to SST is problematic. Analyses of recruitment (a metric of productivity in the same database) showed increases in global productivity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cody Szuwalski
- Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
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112
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Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:12907-12912. [PMID: 31186360 PMCID: PMC6600926 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1900194116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 140] [Impact Index Per Article: 28.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
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113
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Walls SC, Barichivich WJ, Chandler J, Meade AM, Milinichik M, O'Donnell KM, Owens ME, Peacock T, Reinman J, Watling RC, Wetsch OE. Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:7122-7133. [PMID: 31380037 PMCID: PMC6662284 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5277] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2019] [Revised: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 05/04/2019] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short-term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0-3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non-overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane-prone regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan C Walls
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center U.S. Geological Survey Gainesville Florida
| | | | - Jonathan Chandler
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
| | - Ashley M Meade
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
| | - Marysa Milinichik
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
| | | | - Megan E Owens
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center U.S. Geological Survey Gainesville Florida
- Environmental Stewards Program Conservation Legacy Durango Colorado
| | - Terry Peacock
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
| | - Joseph Reinman
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
| | - Rebecca C Watling
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center U.S. Geological Survey Gainesville Florida
- Environmental Stewards Program Conservation Legacy Durango Colorado
| | - Olivia E Wetsch
- St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service St. Marks Florida
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Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems through the lens of the size spectrum. Emerg Top Life Sci 2019; 3:233-243. [PMID: 33523153 PMCID: PMC7289007 DOI: 10.1042/etls20190042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2019] [Revised: 04/16/2019] [Accepted: 04/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is a complex global issue that is driving countless shifts in the structure and function of marine ecosystems. To better understand these shifts, many processes need to be considered, yet they are often approached from incompatible perspectives. This article reviews one relatively simple, integrated perspective: the abundance-size spectrum. We introduce the topic with a brief review of some of the ways climate change is expected to impact the marine ecosystem according to complex numerical models while acknowledging the limits to understanding posed by complex models. We then review how the size spectrum offers a simple conceptual alternative, given its regular power law size-frequency distribution when viewed on sufficiently broad scales. We further explore how anticipated physical aspects of climate change might manifest themselves through changes in the elevation, slope and regularity of the size spectrum, exposing mechanistic questions about integrated ecosystem structure, as well as how organism physiology and ecological interactions respond to multiple climatic stressors. Despite its application by ecosystem modellers and fisheries scientists, the size spectrum perspective is not widely used as a tool for monitoring ecosystem adaptation to climate change, providing a major opportunity for further research.
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115
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Affiliation(s)
- Éva Plagányi
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, Australia
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