How to build and interpret a nomogram for cancer prognosis

Construction and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study from a tertiary center

PURPOSE

There is a lack of adequate models specifically designed for elderly patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) to predict the risk of death. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of SAP in elderly patients.

METHODS

Elderly patients diagnosed with SAP between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2022 were included in the study. Risk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis. Subsequently, a novel nomogram model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using metrics such as the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 326 patients were included in the analysis, with 260 in the survival group and 66 in the deceased group. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age, respiratory rate, arterial pH, total bilirubin, and calcium were independent prognostic factors for the survival of SAP patients. The nomogram demonstrated a performance comparable to sequential organ failure assessment (P = 0.065). Additionally, the calibration curve showed satisfactory predictive accuracy, and the DCA highlighted the clinical application value of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

We have identified key demographic and laboratory parameters that are associated with the survival of elderly patients with SAP. These parameters have been utilized to create a precise and user-friendly nomogram, which could be an effective and valuable clinical tool for clinicians.

Development and validation of a clinical nomogram to predict prostatic inflammation in men with lower urinary tract symptoms

BACKGROUND

Prostatic inflammation is an important etiological component of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). The Prostatic Inflammation Nomogram Study (PINS) aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the presence of prostatic inflammation in men with LUTS.

METHODS

This non-interventional, cross-sectional, prospective study was conducted in six secondary/tertiary centers across Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Men (≥40 years) with BPH/LUTS scheduled to undergo prostatic surgery or transrectal ultrasound-guided (TRUS) prostate biopsy were included. Fifteen demographic and clinical participant characteristics were selected as possible predictors of prostatic inflammation. The presence of inflammation (according to Irani score) in the prostatic tissue samples obtained from surgery/TRUS biopsy was determined. The effect of each characteristic on the likelihood a prostate specimen demonstrated inflammation (classified by Irani score into two categories, 0-2 [no/minimal inflammation] or 3-6 [moderate/severe inflammation]) was assessed using multiple logistic regression. A nomogram was developed and its discriminatory ability and validity were assessed.

RESULTS

In total, 423 patients (mean age 68.9 years) were recruited. Prostate volume ultrasound (PVUS) > 50 mL, history of urinary tract infection (UTI) treatment, presence of diabetes, and International Prostate Symptom Score (IPPS) Storage score were statistically significant predictors of Irani classification. Logistic regression demonstrated a statistically significant effect for leucocytes detected via urine dipstick, presence of diabetes, PVUS > 50 mL, history of UTIs, and higher IPSS Storage score for the odds of an inflammatory score category of 3-6 versus 0-2. The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.71, and good internal validity.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram developed from PINS had good predictive ability and identified various characteristics to be predictors of prostatic inflammation. Use of the nomogram may aid in individualizing treatment for LUTS, by identifying individuals who are candidates for therapies targeting prostatic inflammation.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with glioma: a population-based study

AIM

The objective is to investigate the prognostic factors associated with gliomas and to develop and assess a predictive nomogram model connected to survival that may serve as an additional resource for the clinical management of glioma patients.

METHOD

From 2010 to 2015, participants included in the study were chosen from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. Gliomas were definitively diagnosed in each of them. They were divided into the training group and the validation cohort at random (7/3 ratio) using a random number table. To identify the independent predictive markers for overall survival (OS), Cox regression analysis was utilized. Subsequently, the training cohort's survival-related nomogram predictive model for OS was created by incorporating the fundamental patient attributes. Following that, the training cohort's model underwent internal validation. The nomogram model's authenticity and reliability were assessed through the computation of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and concordance index (C-index). To evaluate the degree of agreement between the observed and predicted values in the training and validation cohorts, calibration plots were created.

RESULT

Age, primary site, histological type, surgery, chemotherapy, marital status, and grade were the independent predictive factors for OS in the training cohort, according to Cox regression analysis. Moreover, the nomogram model for predicting 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year OS was built using these variables. The C-indexes of OS for glioma patients in the training cohort and internal validation cohort were found to be 0.779 (95% CI=0.769-0.789) and 0.776 (95% CI=0.760-0.792), respectively, according to the results. The ROC curves also demonstrated good discrimination. Additionally, calibration plots demonstrated a fair amount of agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, the nomogram prediction model of OS demonstrated a moderate level of reliability in its predictive performance, offering valuable reference data to enable doctors to quickly and easily determine the survival likelihood of patients with gliomas.

Ubiquitination-Related Gene Signature, Nomogram and Immune Features for Prognostic Prediction in Patients with Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The objective of this research was to create a prognostic model focused on genes related to ubiquitination (UbRGs) for evaluating their clinical significance in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) patients. The transcriptome expression data of UbRGs were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) was used to identify specific UbRGs within survival-related hub modules. A multi-gene signature was formulated using LASSO Cox regression analysis. Furthermore, various analyses, including time-related receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), Kaplan-Meier, Cox regression, nomogram prediction, gene set enrichment, co-expression, immune, tumor mutation burden (TMB), and drug sensitivity, were conducted. Ultimately, a prognostic signature consisting of 11 gene pairs for HNSCC was established. The Kaplan-Meier curves indicated significantly improved overall survival (OS) in the low-risk group compared to the high-risk group (p < 0.001), suggesting its potential as an independent and dependable prognostic factor. Additionally, a nomogram with AUC values of 0.744, 0.852, and 0.861 at 1-, 3-, and 5-year intervals was developed. Infiltration of M2 macrophages was higher in the high-risk group, and the TMB was notably elevated compared to the low-risk group. Several chemotherapy drugs targeting UbRGs were recommended for low-risk and high-risk patients, respectively. The prognostic signature derived from UbRGs can effectively predict prognosis and provide new personalized therapeutic targets for HNSCC.

Nomogram for radiation-induced lymphopenia in patients receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy based-chemoradiation therapy for newly diagnosed glioblastoma: A multi-institutional study

Purpose

Severe lymphopenia (SLP) has emerged as a significant prognostic factor in glioblastoma. Intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT)-based radiation therapy (RT) is suggested to minimize the risk of SLP. This study aimed to evaluate SLP incidence based on multi-institutional database in patients with GBM treated with IMRT and develop a predictive nomogram.

Patients and methods

This retrospective study reviewed data from 348 patients treated with IMRT-based concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) at two major hospitals from 2016 to 2021. After multivariate regression analysis, a nomogram was developed and internally validated to predict SLP risk.

Results

During treatment course, 21.0% of patients developed SLP and SLP was associated with poor overall survival outcomes in patients with GBM. A newly developed nomogram, incorporating gender, pre-CCRT absolute lymphocyte count, and brain mean dose, demonstrated fair predictive accuracy (AUC 0.723).

Conclusions

This study provides the first nomogram for predicting SLP in patients with GBM treated with IMRT-based CCRT, with acceptable predictive accuracy. The findings underscore the need for dose optimization and radiation planning to minimize SLP risk. Further external validation is crucial for adopting this nomogram in clinical practice.

Development of a Nomogram Model Based on Lactate-To-Albumin Ratio for Prognostic Prediction in Hospitalized Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to develop a nomogram model incorporating lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) to predict the prognosis of hospitalized patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and demonstrate its excellent predictive performance.

METHODS

A total of 226 patients with ICH from the Medical information mart for intensive care III (MIMIC Ⅲ) database were randomly split into 8:2 ratio training and experimental groups, and 38 patients from the eICU-CRD for external validation. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify independent factors associated with ICH, and multivariate Cox regression was used to construct nomograms for 7-day and 14-day overall survival (OS). The performance of nomogram was verified by the calibration curves, decision curves, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

Our study identified LAR, glucose, mean blood pressure, sodium, and ethnicity as independent factors influencing in-hospital prognosis. The predictive performance of our nomogram model for predicting 7-day and 14 -day OS (AUCs: 0.845 and 0.830 respectively) are both superior to Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score, Simplified acute physiology score II, and SIRS (AUCs: 0.617, 0.620 and 0.591 and AUCs: 0.709, 0.715 and 0.640, respectively) in internal validation, and also demonstrate favorable predictive performance in external validation (AUCs: 0.778 and 0.778 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

LAR as a novel biomarker is closely associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality of patients with ICH. The nomogram model incorporating LAR along with glucose, mean blood pressure, sodium, and ethnicity demonstrate excellent predictive performance for predicting the prognosis of 7- and 14-day OS of hospitalized patients with ICH.

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients.

METHODS

We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared.

RESULTS

A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Generation and External Validation of a Histologic Transformation Risk Model for Patients with Follicular Lymphoma

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is the most frequent indolent lymphoma. Some patients (10%-15%) experience histologic transformation (HT) to a more aggressive lymphoma, usually diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). This study aimed to validate and improve a genetic risk model to predict HT at diagnosis.We collected mutational data from diagnosis biopsies of 64 FL patients. We combined them with the data from a previously published cohort (total n = 104; 62 from nontransformed and 42 from patients who did transform to DLBCL). This combined cohort was used to develop a nomogram to estimate the risk of HT. Prognostic mutated genes and clinical variables were assessed using Cox regression analysis to generate a risk model. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping and externally validated in an independent cohort. Its performance was evaluated using a concordance index and a calibration curve. The clinicogenetic nomogram included the mutational status of 3 genes (HIST1HE1, KMT2D, and TNFSR14) and high-risk Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index and predicted HT with a concordance index of 0.746. Patients were classified as being at low or high risk of transformation. The probability HT function at 24 months was 0.90 in the low-risk group vs 0.51 in the high-risk group and, at 60 months, 0.71 vs 0.15, respectively. In the external validation cohort, the probability HT function in the low-risk group was 0.86 vs 0.54 in the high-risk group at 24 months, and 0.71 vs 0.32 at 60 months. The concordance index in the external cohort was 0.552. In conclusion, we propose a clinicogenetic risk model to predict FL HT to DLBLC, combining genetic alterations in HIST1H1E, KMT2D, and TNFRSF14 genes and clinical features (Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index) at diagnosis. This model could improve the management of FL patients and allow treatment strategies that would prevent or delay transformation.

Construction and validation of a nomogram prediction model for axillary lymph node metastasis of cT1 invasive breast cancer

OBJECTIVE

Based on the ultrasonic characteristics of the breast mass and axillary lymph nodes as well as the clinicopathological information, a model was developed for predicting axillary lymph node metastasis in cT1 breast cancer, and relevant features associated with axillary lymph node metastasis were identified.

METHODS

Our retrospective study included 808 patients with cT1 invasive breast cancer treated at the Second Affiliated Hospital and the Cancer Hospital Affiliated with Harbin Medical University from February 2012 to August 2021 (250 cases in the positive axillary lymph node group and 558 cases in the negative axillary lymph node group). We allocated 564 cases to the training set and 244 cases to the verification set. R software was used to compare clinicopathological data and ultrasonic features between the two groups. Based on the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis, a nomogram prediction model was developed and verified for axillary lymph node metastasis of cT1 breast cancer.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that palpable lymph nodes ( P  = 0.003), tumor location ( P  = 0.010), marginal contour ( P  < 0.001), microcalcification ( P  = 0.010), surrounding tissue invasion ( P  = 0.046), ultrasonic detection of lymph nodes ( P  = 0.001), cortical thickness ( P  < 0.001) and E-cadherin ( P  < 0.001) are independently associated with axillary lymph node metastasis. Using these features, a nomogram was developed for axillary lymph node metastasis. The training set had an area under the curve of 0.869, while the validation set had an area under the curve of 0.820. Based on the calibration curve, the model predicted axillary lymph node metastases were in good agreement with reality ( P  > 0.05). Nomogram's net benefit was good based on decision curve analysis.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram developed in this study has a high negative predictive value for axillary lymph node metastasis in invasive cT1 breast c ancer. Patients with no axillary lymph node metastases can be accurately screened using this nomogram, potentially allowing this group of patients to avoid invasive surgery.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting intellectual disability in children with cerebral palsy

Objective

Intellectual disability (ID) is a prevalent comorbidity in children with cerebral palsy (CP), presenting significant challenges to individuals, families and society. This study aims to develop a predictive model to assess the risk of ID in children with CP.

Methods

We analyzed data from 885 children diagnosed with CP, among whom 377 had ID. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, along with univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we identified key predictors for ID. Model performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Bootstrapping validation was also employed.

Results

The predictive nomogram included variables such as preterm birth, CP subtypes, Gross Motor Function Classification System level, MRI classification category, epilepsy status and hearing loss. The model demonstrated strong discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.7504-0.8116) and a bootstrapped AUC of 0.7624 (95% CI: 0.7216-0.8032). Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit (χ2= 7.9061, p = 0.4427). DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility. The cases were randomly divided into test group and validation group at a 7:3 ratio, demonstrating strong discrimination, good fit and clinical utility; similar results were found when stratified by sex.

Conclusions

This predictive model effectively identifies children with CP at a high risk for ID, facilitating early intervention strategies. Stratified risk categories provide precise guidance for clinical management, aiming to optimize outcomes for children with CP by leveraging neuroplasticity during early childhood.

A Novel Amino Acid-Related Gene Signature Predicts Overall Survival in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an extremely harmful malignant tumor in the world. Since the energy metabolism and biosynthesis of HCC cells are closely related to amino acids, it is necessary to further explore the relationship between amino acid-related genes and the prognosis of HCC to achieve individualized treatment. We herein aimed to develop a prognostic model for HCC based on amino acid genes.

METHODS

In this study, RNA-sequencing data of HCC patients were downloaded from the TCGA-LIHC cohort as the training cohort and the GSE14520 cohort as the validation cohort. Amino acid-related genes were derived from the Molecular Signatures Database. Univariate Cox and Lasso regression analysis were used to construct an amino acid-related signature (AARS). The predictive value of this risk score was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Gene set variation analysis (GSVA) and immune characteristics evaluation were used to explore the underlying mechanisms. Finally, a nomogram was established to help the personalized prognosis assessment of patients with HCC.

RESULTS

The AARS comprises 14 amino acid-related genes to predict overall survival (OS) in HCC patients. HCC patients were divided into AARS-high group and AARS-low group according to the AARS scores. The K-M curve, ROC curve, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis verified the good prediction efficiency of the risk score. Using GSVA, we found that AARS variants were concentrated in four pathways, including cholesterol metabolism, delayed estrogen response, fatty acid metabolism, and myogenesis metabolism.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the AARS as a prognostic model based on amino acid-related genes is of great value in the prediction of survival of HCC, and can help improve the individualized treatment of patients with HCC.

A personalized prognostic model for long-term survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

Purpose

This study aimed to determine the optimal cutoff points for age and tumor size of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) and to establish and verify a predictive nomogram of overall survival at 1, 3, and 5 years.

Methods

From the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database, 1,325 ICC patients were selected and randomly divided into training and testing cohorts at a 7:3 ratio. Using the X-tile software, age and tumor size were classified into 3 subgroups: ≤61, 62-74, and ≥75 years and ≤35, 36-55, and ≥56 mm. Subsequently, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed using the R software in the training cohort to determine independent risk factors, compile the prediction nomogram, and verify it with the testing cohort findings.

Results

The C-indexes of the new prediction nomograms in the training and testing cohorts were 0.738 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.718-0.758) and 0.750 (95% CI, 0.72-0.78), respectively. Furthermore, the areas under the 1-, 3-, and 5-year receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves based on the nomogram were 0.792, 0.853, and 0.838, respectively, higher than the ROC based on the 7th and 8th editions of the American Joint Cancer Commission (AJCC) staging system.

Conclusion

This study established and verified a prognostic nomogram that improved the accuracy of the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival predictions for ICC patients, compared with that based on the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC staging system, and can help clinicians make personalized survival predictions.

Meaningful nomograms based on systemic immune inflammation index predicted survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients receiving chemotherapy

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of the study is to construct meaningful nomogram models according to the independent prognostic factor for metastatic pancreatic cancer receiving chemotherapy.

METHODS

This study is retrospective and consecutively included 143 patients from January 2013 to June 2021. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the area under the curve (AUC) is utilized to determine the optimal cut-off value. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, univariate and multivariable Cox regression analysis are exploited to identify the correlation of inflammatory biomarkers and clinicopathological features with survival. R software are run to construct nomograms based on independent risk factors to visualize survival. Nomogram model is examined using calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The best cut-off values of 966.71, 0.257, and 2.54 for the systemic immunological inflammation index (SII), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were obtained by ROC analysis. Cox proportional-hazards model revealed that baseline SII, history of drinking and metastasis sites were independent prognostic indices for survival. We established prognostic nomograms for primary endpoints of this study. The nomograms' predictive potential and clinical efficacy have been evaluated by calibration curves and DCA.

CONCLUSION

We constructed nomograms based on independent prognostic factors, these models have promising applications in clinical practice to assist clinicians in personalizing the management of patients.

The ratio of skeletal muscle mass to body mass index combined with inflammatory immune markers to stratify survival of pancreatic cancer after pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

We sought to combine skeletal muscle index and inflammatory immune markers to stratify long-term survival in patients with pancreatic cancer after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD).

METHODS

A total of 581 patients with pancreatic cancer underwent PD were included, and divided into the training and validation cohort. Image analysis of computed tomography scans was used to calculate the ratio of skeletal muscle (SM) area to body mass index (BMI). Naples prognostic score (NPS) was calculated from blood-test inflammatory immune markers. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was performed to minimize biases of clinicopathological characteristics. To estimate the overall survival (OS), a nomogram was developed using the training cohort. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was estimated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

After PSM analysis, SM/BMI ratio, NPS, lymph node metastasis, TNM stage, surgical margin, tumor grade and adjuvant therapy were independent predictors of OS, which were all assembled into nomogram. The SM/BMI ratio was the best single-predictor for 3- and 5-year OS, with an AUC of 0.805 (95% CI: 0.755-0.855) and 0.812 (95% CI: 0.736-0.888), respectively. Harrell's c-index of the nomogram in the training cohort was 0.786 (95% CI: 0.770-0.802), and the area under ROC curve of 1-year, 3- and 5-year OS prediction were 0.869 (95%CI: 0.837-0.901), 0.846 (95%CI: 0.810-0.882) and 0.849 (95%CI: 0.801-0.896).

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram based on SM/BMI ratio and NPS had excellent predictive performance, which should be incorporated to conventional risk scores to stratify survival of patients with PDAC after PD.

Screening women in young adulthood for disabling dysmenorrhoea: a nationwide cross-sectional study from the CONSTANCES cohort

RESEARCH QUESTION

How do different warning indicators help to identify disabling dysmenorrhoea among women in young adulthood?

DESIGN

A nationwide cross-sectional study of women aged 18-25 years from the CONSTANCES cohort was constructed. Disability was assessed with the Global Activity Limitation Indicator question 'For the past 6 months, have you been limited in routine activities?Yes, severely limited/Yes, limited/ No, not limited'. Dysmenorrhoea pain intensity and other chronic pelvic pain symptoms (dyspareunia and non-menstrual pain) were evaluated according to questions from a specific questionnaire. Probability of disability was estimated using a logistic prediction model according to dysmenorrhoea intensity, other indicators of pelvic pain symptoms and other obvious covariates. The results of the predictive model of disabling dysmenorrhoea were presented on a nomogram.

RESULTS

Among 6377 women, the rate of disability was estimated at 7.5%. Increased intensity of dysmenorrhoea (odds ratio [OR] 1.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.04-1.13), increased frequency of dyspareunia (from OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.33-2.14 up to OR 3.41, 95% CI 2.16-5.38) non-menstrual chronic pelvic pain (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.40-2.19), body mass index over 25 kg/m2 (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.17-1.80) and non-use of the hormonal contraceptive pill (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59) were significantly associated with disability. According to the nomogram, a predicted probability of 15% or more could be chosen as a threshold. This represents almost 4.6% of young women in this sample being classified at risk of disabling dysmenorrhoea.

CONCLUSIONS

Dysmenorrhoea pain intensity and associated pelvic pain symptoms are warning indicators that can be measured to help screen young women who may suffer from disabling dysmenorrhoea.

To establish a prognostic model of epidermal growth factor receptor mutated non-small cell lung cancer patients based on Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression

BACKGROUND

There is currently a shortage of effective diagnostic tools that are used for identifying long-term survival among non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations. This research utilized the development of a prognostic model to assist clinicians in forecasting the survival over 24 months.

METHODS

In Phase III and IV those patients who were diagnosed with EGFR mutation from January 2018 to June 2022 were enrolled into the lung cancer group of Thoracic Surgery Department of Hebei Provincial People's Hospital. Long-run survival was stated as survival for 24 months after being diagnosed. A multivariate prognostic pattern was constructed by means of internal validation and binary logistic regression by bootstrapping. One nomogram was created with a view to boosting the explanation and applicability of the pattern.

RESULTS

A total of 603 patients with EGFR mutation were registered. Elements linked to the whole survival beyond 24 months were age (OR 6.15); female (OR 1.79); functional status (ECOG 0-1) (OR 5.26); Exon 20 insertion mutation deletion (OR 2.08); No central nervous system metastasis (OR 2.66), targeted therapy (OR 0.43); Immunotherapy (OR 0.24). The model has good internal validation.

CONCLUSION

Seven pretreatment clinicopathological variables predicted survival over 24 months. That pattern owns a great discriminative capability. It is hypothesized that this pattern is capable of assisting in selecting the optimal treatment sequence for NSCLC patients with EGFR mutations.

Significance of metastatic lymph nodes ratio in overall survival for patients with resected nonsmall cell lung cancer: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The tumor, node and metastasis stage is widely applied to classify lung cancer and is the foundation of clinical decisions. However, increasing studies have pointed out that this staging system is not precise enough for the N status. In this study, we aim to build a convenient survival prediction model that incorporates the current items of lymph node status.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study and collected the data from resectable nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (IA-IIIB) patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2006-2015). The x-tile program was applied to calculate the optimal threshold of metastatic lymph node ratio (MLNR). Then, independent prognostic factors were determined by multivariable Cox regression analysis and enrolled to build a nomogram model. The calibration curve as well as the Concordance Index (C-index) were selected to evaluate the nomogram. Finally, patients were grouped based on their specified risk points and divided into three risk levels. The prognostic value of MLNR and examined lymph node numbers (ELNs) were presented in subgroups.

RESULTS TOTALLY,

40853 NSCLC patients after surgery were finally enrolled and analyzed. Age, metastatic lymph node ratio, histology type, adjuvant treatment and American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th T stage were deemed as independent prognostic parameters after multivariable Cox regression analysis. A nomogram was built using those variables, and its efficiency in predicting patients' survival was better than the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer stage system after evaluation. Our new model has a significantly higher concordance Index (C-index) (training set, 0.683 v 0.641, respectively; P < 0.01; testing set, 0.676 v 0.638, respectively; P < 0.05). Similarly, the calibration curve shows the nomogram was in better accordance with the actual observations in both cohorts. Then, after risk stratification, we found that MLNR is more reliable than ELNs in predicting overall survival.

CONCLUSION

We developed a nomogram model for NSCLC patients after surgery. This novel and useful tool outperforms the widely used tumor, node and metastasis staging system and could benefit clinicians in treatment options and cancer control.

Stratification of Lung Adenocarcinoma Patients Based on In Silico and Immunohistochemistry Analyses of Oxidative Stress-Related Genes

Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains heterogeneous in the prognosis of patients; oxidative stress (OS) has been widely linked to cancer progression. Therefore, it is necessary to explore the prognostic value of the OS-associated genes in LUAD. Methods: An OS-associated prognostic signature was developed using the Cox regression and random forest model in The Cancer Genome Atlas-LUAD dataset. Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curve and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curves were applied to evaluate and validate the predictive accuracy of this signature among the training and testing cohorts. A nomogram was constructed and also verified by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, and tROC curves, respectively. ESTIMATE algorithm and CIBERSORT algorithms were conducted to explore the signature's immune characteristics. Core target genes of the prognostic signature were identified in the protein-protein interaction network. Results: A six OS-associated prognostic gene signature (CDC25C, ERO1A, GRIA1, TERT, CAV1, BDNF) was developed. The tROC and K-M survival curves in the training and testing cohorts revealed that the signature had good and robust predictive capability to predict the overall survival of LUAD patients. Meanwhile, the risk score was an independent prognostic factor influencing patients' overall survival. The results of the C-index (0.714), calibration curves, and the 1-, 2-, and 3-year tROC curves (area under the curve = 0.703, 0.737, and 0.723, respectively) suggested that the nomogram had good predictive efficacy and prognostic value for LUAD. Then, the authors found that the high-risk group may be depletion or loss of antitumor function of immune cells. Finally, 10 core genes of the signature were predicted. Conclusion: Their study may provide a novel understanding for the identification of prognostic stratification in LUAD patients, as well as the regulation of OS-associated genes in LUAD progression.

Development and validation of prediction model for technique failure in peritoneal dialysis patients: An observational study

AIM

This study aimed to establish a prediction model in peritoneal dialysis patients to estimate the risk of technique failure and guide clinical practice.

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data of 424 adult peritoneal dialysis patients were retrospectively collected. The risk prediction models were built using univariate Cox regression, best subsets approach and LASSO Cox regression. Final nomogram was constructed based on the best model selected by the area under the curve.

RESULTS

After comparing three models, the nomogram was built using the LASSO Cox regression model. This model included variables consisting of hypertension and peritonitis, serum creatinine, low-density lipoprotein, fibrinogen and thrombin time, and low red blood cell count, serum albumin, triglyceride and prothrombin activity. The predictive model constructed performed well using receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve value, C-index and calibration curve.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and verified a new prediction instrument for the risk of technique failure among peritoneal dialysis patients.

A novel signature of seven aging-related genes for risk stratification, prognosis prediction and benefit evaluation of chemotherapy, and immunotherapy in elderly patients with lung adenocarcinoma

Background

Aging, a multifaceted biological process, is thought to be associated with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) development and progression. However, it is unclear whether aging-related genes (ARGs) can predict tumor risk, chemotherapy and immunotherapy benefits, and prognosis in LUAD patients at different ages.

Methods

Gene expression datasets and clinical information of LUAD patients were downloaded from TCGA and GEO database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression, and lasso algorithm were employed to identify the ARG signatures. Patients were stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups to evaluate the predictive accuracy using Kaplan-Meier curves, ROC curves, and time-dependent AUC. A nomogram was established to predict the survival probability. GSEA revealed potential pathways, and CIBERSORT indicated different immunologic status. TIDE score was used to predict the potential tumor response to immune checkpoint inhibitors, and GDSC was employed to evaluate the sensitivity of chemotherapeutic drugs. The correlation of TIDE score and patient age, as well as that of ARGs and patient age was investigated. And cell Culture and RT-qPCR for external validation for key gene.

Results

A novel gene signature based on seven ARGs was established, including BMP15, CD79A, CDKN3, CDX2, COL1A1, DKK1, and GRIK2. Our model demonstrated exceptional prediction accuracy for elderly LUAD patients of 71-90 years old. A nomogram model was constructed to predict the survival probability, and the C-index value was 0.737, indicating our prognostic nomogram model has high accuracy. Through external RT-qPCR validation, we found that CD79A expression in H1299 was higher than that of BEAS-2B. And novel immunotherapy and chemotherapy regimens were accordingly proposed for the elderly LUAD patients.

Conclusion

We identified a novel gene signature based on seven ARGs for risk stratification, prognosis prediction and benefit evaluation of immunotherapy and chemotherapy in elderly LUAD patients.

Deep learning models for predicting the survival of patients with medulloblastoma based on a surveillance, epidemiology, and end results analysis

Medulloblastoma is a malignant neuroepithelial tumor of the central nervous system. Accurate prediction of prognosis is essential for therapeutic decisions in medulloblastoma patients. We analyzed data from 2,322 medulloblastoma patients using the SEER database and randomly divided the dataset into training and testing datasets in a 7:3 ratio. We chose three models to build, one based on neural networks (DeepSurv), one based on ensemble learning that Random Survival Forest (RSF), and a typical Cox Proportional-hazards (CoxPH) model. The DeepSurv model outperformed the RSF and classic CoxPH models with C-indexes of 0.751 and 0.763 for the training and test datasets. Additionally, the DeepSurv model showed better accuracy in predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates (AUC: 0.767-0.793). Therefore, our prediction model based on deep learning algorithms can more accurately predict the survival rate and survival period of medulloblastoma compared to other models.

A genomic instability-associated lncRNA signature for predicting prognosis and biomarkers in lung adenocarcinoma

Genomic instability (GI) was associated with tumorigenesis. However, GI-related lncRNA signature (GILncSig) in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) is still unknown. In this study, the lncRNA expression data, somatic mutation information and clinical survival information of LUAD were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and performed differential analysis. Functional and prognosis analysis revealed that multiple GI-related pathways were enriched. By using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, 5 GI-associated lncRNAs (AC012085.2, FAM83A-AS1, MIR223HG, MIR193BHG, LINC01116) were identified and used to construct a GILncSig model. Mutation burden analysis indicated that the high-risk GI group had much higher somatic mutation count and the risk score constructed by the 5 GI-associated lncRNAs was an independent predictor for overall survival (OS) (P < 0.05). Overall, our study provides valuable insights into the involvement of GI-associated lncRNAs in LUAD and highlights their potential as therapeutic targets.

A Radiomics-Based Nomogram Using Ultrasound Carotid Plaque Evaluation For Predicting Cerebro-Cardiovascular Events In Asymptomatic Patients

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess whether a radiomics-based nomogram correlates with a higher risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. Additionally, it investigates the nomogram's contribution to the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (rFSRP) for predicting cerebro-cardiovascular risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Predictive models aimed at identifying an increased risk of future cerebro-cardiovascular events were developed and internally validated at one center, then externally validated at two other centers. Survival curves, constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method, were compared through the log-rank test.

RESULTS

This study included a total of 2009 patients (3946 images). The final nomogram was generated using multivariate Cox regression variables, including dyslipidemia, lumen diameter, plaque echogenicity, and ultrasonography (US)-based radiomics risk. The Harrell's concordance index (C-index) for predicting events-free survival (EFS) was 0.708 in the training cohort, 0.574 in the external validation cohort 1, 0.632 in the internal validation cohort, and 0.639 in the external validation cohort 2. The final nomogram showed a significant increase in C-index compared to the clinical, conventional US, and US-based radiomics models (all P < 0.05). Furthermore, the final nomogram-assisted method significantly improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of plaque (both P < 0.001). Among 1058 patients with corresponding 1588 plaque US images classified as low-risk by the rFSRP, 75 (7.1%) patients with corresponding 93 (5.9%) carotid plaque images were appropriately reclassified to the high-risk category by the final nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The radiomics-based nomogram demonstrated accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic carotid plaques. It also improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque and enhanced the risk stratification ability of rFSRP.

SUMMARY

The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques.

KEY RESULTS

The radiomics-based nomogram allowed accurate prediction of cerebro-cardiovascular events, especially ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with asymptomatic carotid atherosclerotic plaques. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the sensitivity and accuracy of radiologists' visual qualitative score of carotid plaque. The radiomics-based nomogram improved the discrimination of high-risk populations from low-risk populations in asymptomatic patients with carotid atherosclerotic plaques and the risk stratification capability of the rFSRP.

Prognostic insights, immune infiltration, and therapeutic response: Cytoplasmic poly(A) tail regulators in hepatocellular carcinoma

The presence of a poly(A) tail is indispensable for the post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression in cancer. This dynamic and modifiable feature of transcripts is under the control of various nuclear and cytoplasmic proteins. This study aimed to develop a novel cytoplasmic poly(A)-related signature for predicting prognosis, clinical attributes, tumor immune microenvironment (TIME), and treatment response in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Utilizing RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), and principal-component analysis (PCA) were employed to categorize HCC patients into three clusters, thus demonstrating the pivotal prognostic role of cytoplasmic poly(A) tail regulators. Furthermore, machine learning algorithms such as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), survival analysis, and Cox proportional hazards modeling were able to distinguish distinct cytoplasmic poly(A) subtypes. As a result, a 5-gene signature derived from TCGA was developed and validated using International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) HCC datasets. This novel classification based on cytoplasmic poly(A) regulators has the potential to improve prognostic predictions and provide guidance for chemotherapy, immunotherapy, and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in HCC.

Bioinformatics Analysis and Experimental Verification Define Different Angiogenesis Subtypes in Endometrial Carcinoma and Identify a Prognostic Signature

Increasing evidence indicates that peripheral blood vessels play a pivotal role in regulating tumor growth with the presence of new blood vessels facilitating tumor growth and metastasis. Nevertheless, the impact of specific molecule-mediated angiogenesis on the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) and individual prognosis of uterine corpus endometrial carcinoma (UCEC) remains uncertain. The transcriptome information on 217 prognostic angiogenesis-related genes was integrated, and the angiogenesis patterns of 506 UCEC patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort were comprehensively evaluated. We identified five angiogenic subtypes, namely, EC1, EC2, EC3, EC4, and EC5, which differed significantly in terms of prognosis, clinicopathological features, cancer hallmarks, genomic mutations, TIME patterns, and immunotherapy responses. Additionally, an angiogenesis-related prognostic risk score (APRS) was constructed to enable an individualized comprehensive evaluation. In multiple cohorts, APRS demonstrated a powerful predictive ability for the prognosis of UCEC patients. Likewise, APRS was confirmed to be associated with clinicopathological features, genomic mutations, cancer hallmarks, and TIME patterns in UCEC patients. The predictability of APRS for immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy was also salient. Subsequently, the expression levels of four angiogenesis-related hub genes were verified by qRT-PCR, immunohistochemistry, and single-cell sequencing data analysis. The effects of four representative genes on angiogenesis were validated by Wound-Healing and Transwell assays, tube formation assay in vitro, and tumor xenograft model in vivo. This study proffered a new classification of UCEC patients based on angiogenesis. The established APRS may contribute to individualized prognosis prediction and immunotherapy selections that are better suited for UCEC patients.

Identification of a signature of histone modifiers in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma

Kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC) is a cancer that is closely associated with epigenetic alterations, and histone modifiers (HMs) are closely related to epigenetic regulation. Therefore, this study aimed to comprehensively explore the function and prognostic value of HMs-based signature in KIRC. HMs were first obtained from top journal. Then, the mRNA expression profiles and clinical information in KIRC samples were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets. Cox regression analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) analysis were implemented to find prognosis-related HMs and construct a risk model related to the prognosis in KIRC. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine prognostic differences between high- and low-risk groups. Immune infiltration and drug sensitivity analysis were also performed between high- and low-risk groups. Eventually, 8 HMs were successfully identified for the construction of a risk model in KIRC. The results of the correlation analysis between risk signature and the prognosis showed HMs-based signature has good prognostic value in KIRC. Results of immune analysis of risk models showed there were significant differences in the level of immune cell infiltration and expression of immune checkpoints between high- and low-risk groups. The results of the drug sensitivity analysis showed that the high-risk group was more sensitive to several chemotherapeutic agents such as Sunitinib, Tipifarnib, Nilotinib and Bosutinib than the low-risk group. In conclusion, we successfully constructed HMs-based prognostic signature that can predict the prognosis of KIRC.

Novel ferroptosis signature for improving prediction of prognosis and indicating gene targets from single-cell level in oral squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is one of the most prevalent kinds of cancers. Therefore, there is a pressing need to create a new risk scoring model to personalize the prognosis of OSCC patients and screen for patient-specific therapeutic agents and molecular targets.

Methods

Firstly, A series of bioinformatics was performed to construct a novel ferroptosis-related prognostic model; Further, drug sensitivity analysis was used to screen for specific therapeutic agents for OSCC; Single-cell analysis was employed to investigate the enrichment of FRDEGs (ferroptosis-related differentially expressed genes) in the OSCC microenvironment; Finally, various experiments were conducted to screen and validate molecular therapeutic targets for OSCC.

Results

In this study, we constructed a novel 10-FRDEGs risk scoring model. Base on the risk scoring model, we founded three potential chemotherapeutic agents for OSCC: 5Z)-7-Oxozeaenol, AT-7519, KIN001-266; In addition, FRDEGs were enriched in the epithelial cells of OSCC. Finally, we found that CA9 and CAV1 could regulate OSCC proliferation, migration and ferroptosis in vitro.

Conclusion

A novel 10-FRDEGs risk scoring model can predict the prognosis of patients with OSCC.Further,5Z)-7-Oxozeaenol, AT-7519, KIN001-266 are potential chemotherapeutic agents for OSCC.Moreover, we identified CA9、CAV1 as potential molecular target for the treatment of OSCC.Our findings provide new directions for prognostic assessment and precise treatment of oral cell squamous carcinoma.

Chemokine‑ and chemokine receptor-based subtypes predict prognosis, immunotherapy and chemotherapy response in colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

The clinical significance and comprehensive characteristics of chemokines and chemokine receptors in colorectal cancer (CRC) have not been previously reported. Our study aims to investigate the expression profiles of chemokines and chemokine receptors, as well as establish subtypes in CRC.

METHODS

1009 CRC samples were enrolled in our study. Consensus unsupervised clustering analysis was conducted to establish subtypes, and a risk score model was developed using univariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. 36 pairs of tissue specimens of CRC patients and two CRC cell lines were used to validate the subtypes and risk score in vitro. Quantitative real-time PCR and western blotting were employed to validate mRNA and protein expression levels, respectively. Flow cytometry was utilized for analyzing cell apoptosis, while cell viability assay and EdU assay were conducted to assess cell proliferation ability.

RESULTS

The Cluster B group shares similarities with the low-risk group in terms of exhibiting a higher level of immune cell infiltration and belonging to hot tumor. Patients CRC in the Cluster B group demonstrate a more favorable prognosis and exhibit better response to immunotherapy and chemotherapy. On the other hand, the Cluster A group resembles the high-risk group as it displays lower levels of immune cell infiltration, indicating a cold tumor phenotype. CRC patients in the Cluster A group have poorer prognoses and show less therapeutic efficacy towards immunotherapy and chemotherapy. Furthermore, we utilized a total of 36 pairs of tissue samples obtained from patients with CRC, along with two CRC cell lines for validation in vitro. This comprehensive approach further enhances the scientific validity and reliability of the identified subtypes and risk score in their ability to predict prognosis, response to immunotherapy, and response to chemotherapy among CRC patients.

CONCLUSION

We first established robust prognostic subtypes based on chemokines and chemokine receptors, which could potentially serve as a novel biomarker for guiding individualized treatment in patients with CRC undergoing immunotherapy and chemotherapy.

Risk factors for avascular necrosis of the femoral head after developmental hip dislocation reduction surgery and construction of Nomogram prediction model

BACKGROUND

To analyze the risk factors for the development of avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head after reduction surgery in children with developmental hip dysplasia (DDH), and to establish a prediction nomogram.

METHODS

The clinical data of 134 children with DDH (169 hips) treated with closure reduction or open reduction from December 2016 to December 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. Independent risk factors for AVN after DDH reduction being combined with cast external immobilization were determined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression and used to generate nomograms predicting the occurrence of AVN.

RESULTS

A total of 169 hip joints in 134 children met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age at surgery of 10.7 ± 4.56 months (range: 4-22 months) and a mean follow-up duration of 38.32 ± 27.00 months (range: 12-94 months). AVN developed in 42 hip joints (24.9%); univariate analysis showed that the International Hip Dysplasia Institute (IHDI) grade, preoperative development of the femoral head ossification nucleus, cartilage acetabular index, femoral head to acetabular Y-shaped cartilage distance, residual acetabular dysplasia, acetabular abduction angle exceeding 60°, and the final follow-up acetabular index (AI) were associated with the development of AVN (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the preoperative IHDI grade, development of the femoral head ossification nucleus, acetabular abduction angle exceeding 60°, and the final follow-up AI were independent risk factors for AVN development (P < 0.05). Internal validation of the Nomogram prediction model showed a consistency index of 0.833.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative IHDI grade, preoperative development of the femoral head ossification nucleus, final AI, and acetabular abduction angle exceeding 60° are risk factors for AVN development. This study successfully constructed a Nomogram prediction model for AVN after casting surgery for DDH that can predict the occurrence of AVN after casting surgery for DDH.

Cuproptosis-related DNA methylation signature predict prognosis and immune microenvironment in cutaneous melanoma

The prognosis for Cutaneous Melanoma (CM), a skin malignant tumor that is extremely aggressive, is not good. A recently identified type of controlled cell death that is intimately related to immunotherapy and the development of cancer is called cuproptosis. Using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, we developed and validated a DNA-methylation located in cuproptosis death-related gene prognostic signature (CRG-located DNA-methylation prognostic signature) to predict CM's prognosis. Kaplan-Meier analysis of our TCGA and GEO cohorts showed that high-risk patients had a shorter overall survival. The area under the curve (AUC) for the TCGA cohort was 0.742, while for the GEO cohort it was 0.733, according to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Furthermore, this signature was discovered as an independent prognostic indicator over CM patients based on Cox-regression analysis. Immunogenomic profiling indicated that majority immune-checkpoints got an opposite relationship with the signature, and patients in the group at low risk got higher immunophenoscore. Several immune pathways were enriched, according to functional enrichment analysis. In conclusion, a prognostic methylation signature for CM patients was established and confirmed. Because of its close relationship to the immune landscape, this signature may help clinicians make more accurate and individualized choices regarding therapy.

Developing a Nomogram for Predicting Colorectal Cancer and Its Precancerous Lesions Based on Data from Three Non-Invasive Screening Tools, APCS, FIT, and sDNA

Purpose

This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting positive colonoscopy results using the data from non-invasive screening strategies.

Methods

The volunteers participated in primary colorectal cancer (CRC) screenings using Asia-Pacific colorectal screening (APCS) scoring, faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and stool deoxyribonucleic acid (sDNA) testing and underwent a colonoscopy. The positive colonoscopy results included CRC, advanced adenoma (AA), high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), and low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN). The enrolled participants were randomly selected for training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. A model for predicting positive colonoscopy results was virtualized by the nomogram using logistic regression analysis.

Results

Among the 179 enrolled participants, 125 were assigned to training set, while 54 were assigned to validation set. After multivariable logistic regression was done, APCS score, FIT result, and sDNA result were all identified as the predictors for positive colonoscopy results. A model that incorporated the above independent predictors was developed and presented as a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram in the validation set was 0.768 (95% CI, 0.644-0.891). The calibration curve demonstrated a good agreement between prediction and observation. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curve showed that the model achieved a net benefit across all threshold probabilities. The AUC of the prediction model for predicting positive colonoscopy results was much higher than that of the FIT + sDNA test scheme.

Conclusion

The nomogram for predicting positive colonoscopy results was successfully developed based on 3 non-invasive screening tools (APCS scoring, FIT and sDNA test).

Development and validation of a lung metastases-predicting nomogram for intermediate- to high-risk differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients

Aim: This research aimed to construct a clinical model for forecasting the likelihood of lung metastases in differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) with intermediate- to high-risk.Methods: In this study, 375 DTC patients at intermediate to high risk were included. They were randomly divided into a training set (70%) and a validation set (30%). A nomogram was created using the training group and then validated in the validation set using calibration, decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results: The calibration curves demonstrated excellent consistency between the predicted and the actual probability. ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve in the training cohort was 0.865 and 0.845 in the validation cohort. Also, the DCA curve indicated that this nomogram had good clinical utility.Conclusion: A user-friendly nomogram was constructed to predict the lung metastases probability with a high net benefit.

Prognostic implication and immunotherapy response prediction of a novel ubiquitination-related gene signature in liver cancer

HCC, also known as hepatocellular carcinoma, is a frequently occurring form of cancer with an unfavorable prognosis. This research constructed a prognostic signature related to ubiquitination and investigated its correlation with the response to immunotherapy in HCC. The Molecular Signatures Database provided a compilation of genes associated with ubiquitination. A gene signature related to ubiquitination was obtained through Cox regression using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator method. The genetic factors CPY26B1, MCM10, SPINK4, and TRIM54 notably impacted the outcomes of HCC. The patients were divided into two groups: one group had a high risk of poor survival while the other had a low risk but a greater chance of controlling HCC progression. Both univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox regression found the risk score to be an independent predictor of HCC prognosis. Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) indicated enrichment in cell cycle and cancer-related microRNAs in high-risk groups. The tumor microenvironment (TME), response to immunotherapy, and effectiveness of chemotherapy medications positively correlated with the risk score. In the high-risk group, erlotinib showed higher IC50 values compared to the low-risk group which exhibited higher IC50 values for VX-11e, AKT inhibitor VIII, AT-7519, BMS345541, Bortezomib, CP466722, FMK, and JNK-9L. The results of RT-qPCR revealed that the expression of four UEGs was higher in tumor tissue as compared to normal tissue. Based on the genes that were expressed differently and associated with ubiquitination-related tumor categorization, we have developed a pattern of four genes and a strong nomogram that can predict the prognosis of HCC, which could be useful in identifying and managing HCC.

Triple-negative breast cancer survival prediction: population-based research using the SEER database and an external validation cohort

Introduction

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is linked to a poorer outlook, heightened aggressiveness relative to other breast cancer variants, and limited treatment choices. The absence of conventional treatment methods makes TNBC patients susceptible to metastasis. The objective of this research was to assess the clinical and pathological traits of TNBC patients, predict the influence of risk elements on their outlook, and create a prediction model to assist doctors in treating TNBC patients and enhancing their prognosis.

Methods

We included 23,394 individuals with complete baseline clinical data and survival information who were diagnosed with primary TNBC between 2010 and 2015 based on the SEER database. External validation utilised a group from The Affiliated Lihuili Hospital of Ningbo University. Independent risk factors linked to TNBC prognosis were identified through univariate, multivariate, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods. These characteristics were chosen as parameters to develop 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) nomogram models. Model accuracy was assessed using calibration curves, consistency indices (C-indices), receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Finally, TNBC patients were divided into groups of high, medium, and low risk, employing the nomogram model for conducting a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results

In the training cohort, variables such as age at diagnosis, marital status, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy were linked to OS and BCSS. For the nomogram, the C-indices stood at 0.762, 0.747, and 0.764 in forecasting OS across the training, internal validation, and external validation groups, respectively. Additionally, the C-index values for the training, internal validation, and external validation groups in BCSS prediction stood at 0.793, 0.755, and 0.811, in that order. The findings revealed that the calibration of our nomogram model was successful, and the time-variant ROC curves highlighted its effectiveness in clinical settings. Ultimately, the clinical DCA showcased the prospective clinical advantages of the suggested model. Furthermore, the online version was simple to use, and nomogram classification may enhance the differentiation of TNBC prognosis and distinguish risk groups more accurately.

Conclusion

These nomograms are precise tools for assessing risk in patients with TNBC and forecasting survival. They can help doctors identify prognostic markers and create more effective treatment plans for patients with TNBC, providing more accurate assessments of their 3- and 5-year OS and BCSS.

De-escalating indications for excision when breast core needle biopsy returns fibroepithelial lesion-not further characterized

PURPOSE

Surgical excision is often performed to exclude phyllodes tumor (PT) when Core Needle Biopsy (CNB) of the breast returns fibroepithelial lesion-not further characterized (FEL-NFC). If imaging or CNB pathology features can be identified that predict a very low probability of borderline/malignant PT, thousands of women could be spared the expense and morbidity of surgical excisions.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study includes 180 FEL-NFC from 164 patients who underwent surgical excisional biopsy.

RESULTS

The upgrade rate from FEL-NFC to benign PT was 15%, and to borderline/malignant PT 7%. Imaging features predicting upgrade to borderline/malignant PT included greater size (p = 0.0002) and heterogeneous echo pattern on sonography (p = 0.117). Histologic features of CNB predicting upgrade to borderline/malignant PT included "pathologist favors PT" (p = 0.012), mitoses (p = 0.014), stromal overgrowth (p = 0.006), increased cellularity (p = 0.0001) and leaf-like architecture (p = 0.077). A three-component score including size > 4.5 cm (Size), heterogeneous echo pattern on sonography (Heterogeneity), and stromal overgrowth on CNB (Overgrowth) maximized the product of sensitivity x specificity for the prediction of borderline/malignant PT. When the SHO score was 0 (72% of FEL-NFC) the probability of borderline/malignant PT on excision was only 1%.

CONCLUSION

The combination of size ≤ 4.5 cm, homogeneous echo pattern, and absence of stromal overgrowth is highly predictive of a benign excision potentially sparing most patients diagnosed with FEL-NFC the expense and morbidity of a surgical excision.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival in small-bowel adenocarcinoma patients using the SEER database

BACKGROUND

Small bowel adenocarcinoma (SBA) is a rare gastrointestinal malignancy forwhich survival is hampered by late diagnosis, complex responses to treatment, and poor prognosis. Accurate prognostic tools are crucial for optimizing treatment strategies and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with SBA and compare it to traditional American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 2,064 patients diagnosed with SBA between 2010 and 2020 from the SEER database. Patients were randomly assigned to training and validation cohorts (7:3 ratio). Kaplan‒Meier survival analysis, Cox multivariate regression, and nomograms were constructed for analysis of 3-year and 5-year CSS. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using Harrell's concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression identified sex, age at diagnosis, marital status, tumor site, pathological grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, retrieval of regional lymph nodes (RORLN), and chemotherapy as independent covariates associated with CSS. In both the training and validation cohorts, the developed nomograms demonstrated superior performance to that of the AJCC staging system, with C-indices of 0.764 and 0.759, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) values obtained by ROC analysis for 3-year and 5-year CSS prediction significantly surpassed those of the AJCC model. The nomograms were validated using calibration and decision curves, confirming their clinical utility and superior predictive accuracy. The NRI and IDI indicated the enhanced predictive capability of the nomogram model.

CONCLUSION

The SEER-based nomogram offers a significantly superior ability to predict CSS in SBA patients, supporting its potential application in clinical decision-making and personalized approaches to managing SBA to improve survival outcomes.

Construction of a novel nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with Siewert type II AEG based on LODDS: a study based on the seer database and external validation

Background

In recent years, the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) has been rapidly increasing globally. Despite advances in the diagnosis and treatment of AEG, the overall prognosis for AEG patients remains concerning. Therefore, analyzing prognostic factors for AEG patients of Siewert type II and constructing a prognostic model for AEG patients is important.

Methods

Data of primary Siewert type II AEG patients from the SEER database from 2004 to 2015 were obtained and randomly divided into training and internal validation cohort. Additionally, data of primary Siewert type II AEG patients from the China Medical University Dandong Central Hospital from 2012 to 2018 were collected for external validation. Each variable in the training set underwent univariate Cox analysis, and variables with statistical significance (p < 0.05) were added to the LASSO equation for feature selection. Multivariate Cox analysis was then conducted to determine the independent predictive factors. A nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) was developed, and its performance was evaluated using ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curves. NRI and IDI were calculated to assess the improvement of the new prediction model relative to TNM staging. Patients were stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on the risk scores from the nomogram.

Results

Age, Differentiation grade, T stage, M stage, and LODDS (Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes)were independent prognostic factors for OS. The AUC values of the ROC curves for the nomogram in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were all greater than 0.7 and higher than those of TNM staging alone. Calibration curves indicated consistency between the predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis showed moderate net benefit. The NRI and IDI values of the nomogram were greater than 0 in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets. Risk stratification based on the nomogram's risk score demonstrated significant differences in survival rates between the high-risk and low-risk groups.

Conclusion

We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in patients with Siewert type II AEG, which assists clinicians in accurately predicting mortality risk and recommending personalized treatment strategies.

Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Pneumonia in Patients with COVID-19 and Lung Cancer

Background

COVID-19 has spread worldwide, becoming a global threat to public health and can lead to complications, especially pneumonia, which can be life-threatening. However, in lung cancer patients, the prediction of pneumonia and severe pneumonia has not been studied. We aimed to develop effective models to assess pneumonia after SARS-CoV-2 infection in lung cancer patients to guide COVID-19 management.

Methods

We retrospectively recruited 621 lung cancer patients diagnosed with COVID-19 via SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR analysis in two medical centers and divided into training and validation group, respectively. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors of all-grade pneumonia and ≥ grade 2 pneumonia in the training group. Nomograms were established based on independent predictors and verified in the validation group. C-index, ROC curves, calibration curve, and DCA were used to evaluate the nomograms. Subgroup analyses in immunotherapy or thoracic radiotherapy patients were then conducted.

Results

Among 621 lung cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, 203 (32.7%) developed pneumonia, and 66 (10.6%) were ≥ grade 2. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes, thoracic radiotherapy, low platelet and low albumin at diagnosis of COVID-19 were significantly associated with all-grade pneumonia. The C-indices of the prediction nomograms in the training group and validation group were 0.702 and 0.673, respectively. Independent predictors of ≥ grade 2 pneumonia were age, KPS, thoracic radiotherapy, platelet and albumin at COVID 19 diagnosis, with C-indices of 0.811 and 0.799 in the training and validation groups. In the thoracic radiotherapy subgroup, 40.8% and 11% patients developed all-grade and ≥grade 2 pneumonia, respectively. The rates in the immunotherapy subgroup were 31.3% and 6.6%, respectively.

Conclusion

We developed nomograms predicting the probability of pneumonia in lung cancer patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. The models showed good performance and can be used in the clinical management of COVID-19 in lung cancer patients. Higher-risk patients should be managed with enhanced protective measures and appropriate intervention.

Age-related nomogram revealed optimal therapeutic option for older patients with primary liver cancer: less is more

BACKGROUND

Age bias in therapeutic decisions for older patients with cancer exists. There is a clear need to individualize such decisions.

METHODS

Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, 5081 primary liver cancer (PLC) patients between 2010 and 2014 were identified and divided into <64, 64-74 and >74 years group. Each group was randomly divided into training and internal validation cohorts, and patients who were diagnosed between 2015 and 2016 were included as an external validation. The nomogram model predicting overall survival (OS) was generated and evaluated based on the Cox regression for the influencing factors in prognosis. The K-M analysis was used to compare the difference among different treatments.

RESULTS

KM analysis showed a significant difference for OS in three age groups (P < 0.001). At the same time, we also found different prognostic factors and their importance in different age groups. Therefore, we created three nomograms based on the results of Cox regression results for each age group. The c-index was 0.802, 0.766, 0.781 respectively. The calibration curve and ROC curve show that our model has a good predictive efficacy and the reliability was also confirmed in the internal and external validation set. An available online page was established to simplify and visualize our model (http://124.222.247.135/). The results of treatment analysis revealed that the optimal therapeutic option for PLCs was surgery alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal therapeutic option for older PLCs was surgery alone. The generated dynamic nomogram in this study may be a useful tool for personalized clinical decisions.

Two nomograms constructed for predicting the efficacy and prognosis of advanced non‑small cell lung cancer patients treated with anti‑PD‑1 inhibitors based on the absolute counts of lymphocyte subsets

BACKGROUND

Patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) are at risk of considerable adverse events, and the ongoing struggle is to accurately identify the subset of patients who will benefit. Lymphocyte subsets play a pivotal role in the antitumor response, this study attempted to combine the absolute counts of lymphocyte subsets (ACLS) with the clinicopathological parameters to construct nomograms to accurately predict the prognosis of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients treated with anti-PD-1 inhibitors.

METHODS

This retrospective study included a training cohort (n = 200) and validation cohort (n = 100) with aNSCLC patients treated with anti-PD-1 inhibitors. Logistic and Cox regression were conducted to identify factors associated with efficacy and progression-free survival (PFS) respectively. Nomograms were built based on independent influencing factors, and assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULT

In training cohort, lower baseline absolute counts of CD3+ (P < 0.001) and CD4+ (P < 0.001) were associated with for poorer efficacy. Hepatic metastases (P = 0.019) and lower baseline absolute counts of CD3+ (P < 0.001), CD4+ (P < 0.001), CD8+ (P < 0.001), and B cells (P = 0.042) were associated with shorter PFS. Two nomograms to predict efficacy at 6-week after treatment and PFS at 4-, 8- and 12-months were constructed, and validated in validation cohort. The area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) of nomogram to predict response was 0.908 in training cohort and 0.984 in validation cohort. The C-index of nomogram to predict PFS was 0.825 in training cohort and 0.832 in validation cohort. AUC-ROC illustrated the nomograms had excellent discriminative ability. Calibration curves showed a superior consistence between the nomogram predicted probability and actual observation.

CONCLUSION

We constructed two nomogram based on ACLS to help clinicians screen of patients with possible benefit and make individualized treatment decisions by accurately predicting efficacy and PFS for advanced NSCLC patient treated with anti-PD-1 inhibitors.

Individualized radiology screening for newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Current guidelines recommend universal PET/CT screening for metastases staging in newly diagnosed nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) despite the low rate of synchronous distant metastasis (SDM). The study aims to achieve individualized screening recommendations of NPC based on the risk of SDM.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

18 pre-treatment peripheral blood indicators was retrospectively collected from 2271 primary NPC patients. A peripheral blood risk score (PBRS) was constructed by indicators associated with SDM on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. The PBRS-based distant metastases (PBDM) model was developed from features selected by logistic regression analyses in the training cohort and then validated in the validation cohort. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis were applied to evaluate PBDM model performance.

RESULTS

Pre-treatment Epstein-Barr viral DNA copy number, percentage of total lymphocytes, serum lactate dehydrogenase level, and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio were most strongly associated with SDM in NPC and used to construct the PBRS. Sex (male), T stage (T3-4), N stage (N2-3), and PBRS (≥1.076) were identified as independent risk factors for SDM and applied in the PBDM model, which showed good performance. Through the model, patients in the training cohort were stratified into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups. Individualized screening recommendations were then developed for patients with differing risk levels.

CONCLUSION

The PBDM model offers individualized recommendations for applying PET/CT for metastases staging in NPC, allowing more targeted screening of patients with greater risk of SDM compared with current recommendations.

A case-control study on the clinical characteristics of granisetron-related arrhythmias and the development of a predictive nomogram

BACKGROUND

Automatic monitoring and assessment are increasingly employed in drug safety evaluations using hospital information system data. The increasing concern about granisetron-related arrhythmias requires real-world studies to improve our understanding of its safety.

AIM

This study aimed to analyze the incidence, clinical characteristics, and risk factors of granisetron-related arrhythmias in hospitalized patients using real-world data obtained from the Adverse Drug Event Active Surveillance and Assessment System-II (ADE-ASAS-II) and concurrently aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the occurrence of arrhythmias.

METHOD

Retrospective automatic monitoring of inpatients using granisetron was conducted in a Chinese hospital from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2021, to determine the incidence of arrhythmias using ADE-ASAS- II. Propensity score matching was used to balance confounders and analyze clinical characteristics. Based on risk factors identified through logistic regression analysis, a prediction nomogram was established and internally validated using the Bootstrap method.

RESULTS

Arrhythmias occurred in 178 of 72,508 cases taking granisetron with an incidence of 0.3%. Independent risk factors for granisetron-related arrhythmias included medication duration, comorbid cardiovascular disease, concomitant use of other 5-hydroxytryptamine 3 receptor antagonists, alanine aminotransferase > 40 U/L, and blood urea nitrogen > 7.5 mmol/L. The nomogram demonstrated good differentiation and calibration, with enhanced clinical benefit observed when the risk threshold ranged from 0.10 to 0.82.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram, based on the five identified independent risk factors, may be valuable in predicting the risk of granisetron-related arrhythmias in the administered population, offering significant clinical applications.

p16 and p53 can Serve as Prognostic Markers for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to explore the expression and clinical significance of human papilloma virus-related pathogenic factors (p16, cyclin D1, p53) in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) and construct a predictive model.

METHODS

The Cancer Genome Atlas was used to obtain clinical data for 112 patients with HNSCC. Expression of p16, p53, and cyclin D1 was quantified. We used the survival package of the R program to set the cut-off value. Values above the cut-off were considered positive, while values below the cut-off were negative. Kaplan-Meier analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to investigate prognostic clinicopathological indicators and the expression of p16, p53, and cyclin D1. A predictive model was constructed based on the results of multifactor Cox regression analysis, and the accuracy of the predictive model was verified through final calibration analysis. Follow-up of patients with HNSCC at the Affiliated Hospital of Binzhou Medical University was conducted from 2015 to 2017, and reliability of the predictive model was validated based on follow-up data and molecular expression levels.

RESULTS

According to the results, expression of p16 and p53 was significantly associated with prognosis (P < .05). The predictive model constructed based on the expression levels of p16 and p53 was useful for evaluating the prognosis of patients with HNSCC. The predictive model was validated using follow-up data obtained from the hospital, and the trend of the follow-up results was consistent with the predictive model.

CONCLUSION

p16 and p53 can be used as key indicators to predict the prognosis of HNSCC patients and as critical immunohistochemical indicators in clinical practice. The survival model constructed based on p16 and p53 expression levels reliably predicts patient prognosis.

Significance of neutrophil extracellular traps-related gene in the diagnosis and classification of atherosclerosis

Atherosclerosis (AS) is a pathological process associated with various cardiovascular diseases. Upon different stimuli, neutrophils release reticular complexes known as neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). Numerous researches have indicated a strong correlation between NETs and AS. However, its role in cardiovascular disease requires further investigation. By utilizing a machine learning algorithm, we examined the genes associated with NETs that were expressed differently in individuals with AS compared to normal controls. As a result, we identified four distinct genes. A nomogram model was built to forecast the incidence of AS. Additionally, we conducted analysis on immune infiltration, functional enrichment and consensus clustering in AS samples. The findings indicated that individuals with AS could be categorized into two groups, exhibiting notable variations in immune infiltration traits among the groups. Furthermore, to measure the NETs model, the principal component analysis algorithm was developed and cluster B outperformed cluster A in terms of NETs. Additionally, there were variations in the expression of multiple chemokines between the two subtypes. By studying AS NETs, we acquired fresh knowledge about the molecular patterns and immune mechanisms implicated, which could open up new possibilities for AS immunotherapy.

Predicting peritoneal recurrence after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer: Validation of a prediction model (PERI-Gastric 1 and PERI-Gastric 2) on a Korean database

BACKGROUND

Peritoneal recurrence is a significant cause of treatment failure after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer. The prediction of metachronous peritoneal recurrence would have a significantly impact risk stratification and tailored treatment planning. This study aimed to externally validate the previously established PERI-Gastric 1 and 2 models to assess their generalizability in an independent population.

METHODS

Retrospective external validation was conducted on a cohort of 8564 patients who underwent elective gastrectomy for stage Ib-IIIc gastric cancer between 1998 and 2018 at the Yonsei Cancer Center. Discrimination was tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC). Accuracy was tested by plotting observations against the predicted risk of peritoneal recurrence and analyzing the resulting calibration plots. Clinical usefulness was tested with a decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

In the validation cohort, PERI-Gastric 1 and PERI-Gastric 2 exhibited an AUROC of 0.766 (95 % C.I. 0.752-0.778) and 0.767 (95 % C.I. 0.755-0.780), a calibration-in-the-large of 0.935 and 0.700, a calibration belt with a 95 % C.I. over the bisector in the risk range of 24%-33 % and 35%-47 %. The decision curve analysis revealed a positive net benefit in the risk range of 10%-42 % and 15%-45 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study presents the external validation of the PERI-Gastric 1 and 2 scores in an Eastern population. The models demonstrated fair discrimination and satisfactory calibration for predicting the risk of peritoneal recurrence after radical gastrectomy, even in Eastern patients. PERI-Gastric 1 and 2 scores could also be applied to predict the risk of metachronous peritoneal recurrence in Eastern populations.

A Four Amino Acid Metabolism-Associated Genes (AMGs) Signature for Predicting Overall Survival Outcomes and Immunotherapeutic Efficacy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Metabolites are important indicators of cancer and mutations in genes involved in amino acid metabolism may influence tumorigenesis. Immunotherapy is an effective cancer treatment option; however, its relationship with amino acid metabolism has not been reported. In this study, RNA-seq data for 371 liver cancer patients were acquired from TCGA and used as the training set. Data for 231 liver cancer patients were obtained from ICGC and used as the validation set to establish a gene signature for predicting liver cancer overall survival outcomes and immunotherapeutic responses. Four reliable groups based on 132 amino acid metabolism-related DEGs were obtained by consistent clustering of 371 HCC patients and a four-gene signature for prediction of liver cancer survival outcomes was developed. Our data show that in different clinical groups, the overall survival outcomes in the high-risk group were markedly low relative to the low-risk group. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that the characteristics of the 4-gene signature were independent prognostic factors for liver cancer. The ROC curve revealed that the risk characteristic is an efficient predictor for 1-, 2-, and 3-year HCC survival outcomes. The GSVA and KEGG pathway analyses revealed that high-risk score tumors were associated with all aspects of the degree of malignancy in liver cancer. There were more mutant genes and greater immune infiltrations in the high-risk groups. Assessment of the three immunotherapeutic cohorts established that low-risk score patients significantly benefited from immunotherapy. Then, we established a prognostic nomogram based on the TCGA cohort. In conclusion, the 4-gene signature is a reliable diagnostic marker and predictor for immunotherapeutic efficacy.

A Diagnostic Model for Parkinson's Disease Based on Anoikis-Related Genes

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most prevalent neurodegenerative disease, and its pathological mechanisms are thought to be closely linked to apoptosis. Anoikis, a specific type of apoptosis, has recently been suggested to play a role in the progression of Parkinson's disease; however, the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. To explore the potential mechanisms involved in PD, we selected genes from the GSE28894 dataset and compared their expression in PD patients and healthy controls to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs), and selected anoikis-related genes (ANRGs) from the DEGs. Furthermore, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression approach and multivariate logistic regression highlighted five key genes-GSK3B, PCNA, CDC42, DAPK2, and SRC-as biomarker candidates. Subsequently, we developed a nomogram model incorporating these 5 genes along with age and sex to predict and diagnose PD. To evaluate the model's coherence, clinical applicability, and distinguishability, we utilized receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the C-index, and calibration curves and validated it in both the GSE20295 dataset and our center's external clinical data. In addition, we confirmed the differential expression of the 5 model genes in human blood samples through qRT-PCR and Western blotting. Our constructed anoikis-related PD diagnostic model exhibits satisfactory predictive accuracy and offers novel insights into both diagnosis and treatment strategies for Parkinson's disease while facilitating its implementation in clinical practice.

Predicting prognosis in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma by the histopathological features

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a highly heterogeneous liver tumor. The associations between histopathological feature and prognosis of ICC are limited. The present study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of glandular structure and tumor budding in ICC.

METHODS

Patients received radical hepatectomy for ICC were included. Glandular structure and tumor budding were detected by Hematoxylin-eosin staining. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to calculate the survival and hazard ratio. Based on the results of multivariate analysis, nomograms of OS and DFS were constructed. C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to assess accuracy of models.

RESULTS

A total of 323 ICC patients who underwent surgery were included in our study. Glandular structure was associated with worse overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio (HR): 2.033, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.047 to 3.945] and disease-free survival (DFS) [HR: 1.854, 95% CI: 1.082 to 3.176]. High tumor budding was associated with worse DFS [HR: 1.636, 95%CI: 1.060 to 2.525]. Multivariate analysis suggested that glandular structure, tumor number, lymph node metastasis, and CA19-9 were independent risk factors for OS. Independent predictor factors for DFS were tumor budding, glandular structure, tumor number, and lymph node metastasis. The c-index (0.641 and 0.642) and AIC (957.69 and 1188.52) showed that nomograms of OS and DFS have good accuracy.

CONCLUSION

High tumor budding and glandular structure are two important histopathological features that serve as prognostic factors for ICC patients undergoing hepatectomy.

Can a nomogram predict apical prostate cancer pathology upgrade from fusion biopsy to final pathology? A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

This study evaluates the efficacy of a nomogram for predicting the pathology upgrade of apical prostate cancer (PCa).

METHODS

A total of 754 eligible patients were diagnosed with apical PCa through combined systematic and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted prostate biopsy followed by radical prostatectomy (RP) were retrospectively identified from two hospitals (training: 754, internal validation: 182, internal-external validation: 148). A nomogram for the identification of apical tumors in high-risk pathology upgrades through comparing the results of biopsy and RP was established incorporating statistically significant risk factors based on univariable and multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram's performance was assessed via the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

Univariable and multivariable analysis identified age, targeted biopsy, number of targeted cores, TNM stage, and the prostate imaging-reporting and data system score as significant predictors of apical tumor pathological progression. Our nomogram, based on these variables, demonstrated ROC curves for pathology upgrade with values of 0.883 (95% CI, 0.847-0.929), 0.865 (95% CI, 0.790-0.945), and 0.840 (95% CI, 0.742-0.904) for the training, internal validation and internal-external validation cohorts respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency between the predicted and actual outcomes. The validation groups also showed great generalizability with the calibration curves. DCA results also demonstrated excellent performance for our nomogram with positive benefit across a threshold probability range of 0-0.9 for the training and internal validation group, and 0-0.6 for the internal-external validation group.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram, integrating clinical, radiological, and pathological data, effectively predicts the risk of pathology upgrade in apical PCa tumors. It holds significant potential to guide clinicians in optimizing the surgical management of these patients.