Population health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: a dynamic simulation and economic evaluation

Estimating the Impact of Reducing Under-Nutrition on the Tuberculosis Epidemic in the Central Eastern States of India: A Dynamic Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) and under-nutrition are widespread in many low and middle-income countries. Momentum to prioritize under-nutrition has been growing at an international level, as demonstrated by the "Scaling Up Nutrition" movement. Low body mass index is an important risk factor for developing TB disease. The objective of this study was to project future trends in TB related outcomes under different scenarios for reducing under-nutrition in the adult population in the Central Eastern states of India.

METHODS

A compartmental TB transmission model stratified by body mass index was parameterized using national and regional data from India. We compared TB related mortality and incidence under several scenarios that represented a range of policies and programs designed to reduce the prevalence of under-nutrition, based on the experience and observed trends in similar countries.

RESULTS

The modeled nutrition intervention scenarios brought about reductions in TB incidence and TB related mortality in the Central Eastern Indian states ranging from 43% to 71% and 40% to 68% respectively, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Modest reductions in under-nutrition averted 4.8 (95% UR 0.5, 17.1) million TB cases and 1.6 (95% UR 0.5, 5.2) million TB related deaths over a period of 20 years of intervention, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention. Complete elimination of under-nutrition in the Central Eastern states averted 9.4 (95% UR 1.5, 30.6) million TB cases and 3.2 (95% UR 0.7-, 10.1) million TB related deaths, relative to the scenario of no nutritional intervention.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that intervening on under-nutrition could have a substantial impact on TB incidence and mortality in areas with high prevalence of under-nutrition, even if only small gains in under-nutrition can be achieved. Focusing on under-nutrition may be an effective way to reduce both rates of TB and other diseases associated with under-nutrition.

Integrating Community-Based Interventions to Reverse the Convergent TB/HIV Epidemics in Rural South Africa

The WHO recommends integrating interventions to address the devastating TB/HIV co-epidemics in South Africa, yet integration has been poorly implemented and TB/HIV control efforts need strengthening. Identifying infected individuals is particularly difficult in rural settings. We used mathematical modeling to predict the impact of community-based, integrated TB/HIV case finding and additional control strategies on South Africa’s TB/HIV epidemics. We developed a model incorporating TB and HIV transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of integrating TB and HIV interventions in rural South Africa over 10 years. We modeled the impact of a novel screening program that integrates case finding for TB and HIV in the community, comparing it to status quo and recommended TB/HIV control strategies, including GeneXpert, MDR-TB treatment decentralization, improved first-line TB treatment cure rate, isoniazid preventive therapy, and expanded ART. Combining recommended interventions averted 27% of expected TB cases (95% CI 18–40%) 18% HIV (95% CI 13–24%), 60% MDR-TB (95% CI 34–83%), 69% XDR-TB (95% CI 34–90%), and 16% TB/HIV deaths (95% CI 12–29). Supplementing these interventions with annual community-based TB/HIV case finding averted a further 17% of TB cases (44% total; 95% CI 31–56%), 5% HIV (23% total; 95% CI 17–29%), 8% MDR-TB (68% total; 95% CI 40–88%), 4% XDR-TB (73% total; 95% CI 38–91%), and 8% TB/HIV deaths (24% total; 95% CI 16–39%). In addition to increasing screening frequency, we found that improving TB symptom questionnaire sensitivity, second-line TB treatment delays, default before initiating TB treatment or ART, and second-line TB drug efficacy were significantly associated with even greater reductions in TB and HIV cases. TB/HIV epidemics in South Africa were most effectively curtailed by simultaneously implementing interventions that integrated community-based TB/HIV control strategies and targeted drug-resistant TB. Strengthening existing TB and HIV treatment programs is needed to further reduce disease incidence.

Costs and Consequences of Using Interferon-γ Release Assays for the Diagnosis of Active Tuberculosis in India

Background

There is growing concern that interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) are being used off-label for the diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) disease in many high-burden settings, including India, where the background prevalence of latent TB infection is high. We analyzed the costs and consequences of using IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India from the perspective of the Indian TB control sector.

Methods and Findings

We constructed a decision analytic model to estimate the incremental cost and effectiveness of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India. We compared a reference scenario of clinical examination and non-microbiological tests against scenarios in which clinical diagnosis was augmented by the addition of either sputum smear microscopy, IGRA, or Xpert MTB/RIF. We examined costs (in 2013 US dollars) and consequences from the perspective of the Indian healthcare sector. Relative to sputum smear microscopy, use of IGRA for active TB resulted in 23,700 (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3,800 – 38,300) additional true-positive diagnoses, but at the expense of 315,700 (95% UR: 118,300 – 388,400) additional false-positive diagnoses and an incremental cost of US$49.3 million (95% UR: $34.9 – $58.0 million) (2.9 billion Indian Rupees). Relative to Xpert MTB/RIF (including the cost of treatment for drug resistant TB), use of IGRA led to 400 additional TB cases treated (95% UR: [-8,000] – 16,200), 370,600 (95% UR: 252,200 – 441,700) more false-positive diagnoses, 70,400 (95% UR: [-7,900] – 247,200) fewer disability-adjusted life years averted, and US$14.6 million (95%UR: [-$7.2] – $28.7 million) (854 million Indian Rupees) in additional costs.

Conclusion

Using IGRAs for diagnosis of active TB in a setting like India results in tremendous overtreatment of people without TB, and substantial incremental cost with little gain in health. These results support the policies by WHO and Standards for TB Care in India, which discourage the use of IGRAs for the diagnosis of active TB in India and similar settings.

Tuberculosis control strategies to reach the 2035 global targets in China: the role of changing demographics and reactivation disease

BACKGROUND

In the last 20 years, China ramped up a DOTS (directly observed treatment, short-course)-based tuberculosis (TB) control program with 80% population coverage, achieving the 2015 Millennium Development Goal of a 50% reduction in TB prevalence and mortality. Recently, the World Health Organization developed the End TB Strategy, with an overall goal of a 90% reduction in TB incidence and a 95% reduction in TB deaths from 2015-2035. As the TB burden shifts to older individuals and China's overall population ages, it is unclear if maintaining the current DOTS strategy will be sufficient for China to reach the global targets.

METHODS

We developed an individual-based computational model of TB transmission, implementing realistic age demographics and fitting to country-level data of age-dependent prevalence over time. We explored the trajectory of TB burden if the DOTS strategy is maintained or if new interventions are introduced using currently available and soon-to-be-available tools. These interventions include increasing population coverage of DOTS, reducing time to treatment, increasing treatment success, and active case finding among elders > 65 years old. We also considered preventative therapy in latently infected elders, a strategy limited by resource constraints and the risk of adverse events.

RESULTS

Maintenance of the DOTS strategy reduces TB incidence and mortality by 42% (95% credible interval, 27-59%) and 41% (5-64%), respectively, between 2015 and 2035. A combination of all feasible interventions nears the 2035 mortality target, reducing TB incidence and mortality by 59% (50-76%) and 83% (73-94%). Addition of preventative therapy for elders would enable China to nearly reach both the incidence and mortality targets, reducing incidence and mortality by 84% (78-93%) and 92% (86-98%).

CONCLUSIONS

The current decline in incidence is driven by two factors: maintaining a low level of new infections in young individuals and the aging out of older latently infected individuals who contribute incidence due to reactivation disease. While further reducing the level of new infections has a modest effect on burden, interventions that limit reactivation have a greater impact on TB burden. Tools that make preventative therapy more feasible on a large scale and in elders will help China achieve the global targets.

Origin and proliferation of multiple-drug resistance in bacterial pathogens

SUMMARY

Many studies report the high prevalence of multiply drug-resistant (MDR) strains. Because MDR infections are often significantly harder and more expensive to treat, they represent a growing public health threat. However, for different pathogens, different underlying mechanisms are traditionally used to explain these observations, and it is unclear whether each bacterial taxon has its own mechanism(s) for multidrug resistance or whether there are common mechanisms between distantly related pathogens. In this review, we provide a systematic overview of the causes of the excess of MDR infections and define testable predictions made by each hypothetical mechanism, including experimental, epidemiological, population genomic, and other tests of these hypotheses. Better understanding the cause(s) of the excess of MDR is the first step to rational design of more effective interventions to prevent the origin and/or proliferation of MDR.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of community active case finding and household contact investigation for tuberculosis case detection in urban Africa

Introduction

Case detection by passive case finding (PCF) strategy alone is inadequate for detecting all tuberculosis (TB) cases in high burden settings especially Sub-Saharan Africa. Alternative case detection strategies such as community Active Case Finding (ACF) and Household Contact Investigations (HCI) are effective but empirical evidence of their cost-effectiveness is sparse. The objective of this study was to determine whether adding ACF or HCI compared with standard PCF alone represent cost-effective alternative TB case detection strategies in urban Africa.

Methods

A static decision modeling framework was used to examine the costs and effectiveness of three TB case detection strategies: PCF alone, PCF+ACF, and PCF+HCI. Probability and cost estimates were obtained from National TB program data, primary studies conducted in Uganda, published literature and expert opinions. The analysis was performed from the societal and provider perspectives over a 1.5 year time-frame. The main effectiveness measure was the number of true TB cases detected and the outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) expressed as cost in 2013 US$ per additional true TB case detected.

Results

Compared to PCF alone, the PCF+HCI strategy was cost-effective at US$443.62 per additional TB case detected. However, PCF+ACF was not cost-effective at US$1492.95 per additional TB case detected. Sensitivity analyses showed that PCF+ACF would be cost-effective if the prevalence of chronic cough in the population screened by ACF increased 10-fold from 4% to 40% and if the program costs for ACF were reduced by 50%.

Conclusions

Under our baseline assumptions, the addition of HCI to an existing PCF program presented a more cost-effective strategy than the addition of ACF in the context of an African city. Therefore, implementation of household contact investigations as a part of the recommended TB control strategy should be prioritized.

Impact of reduced hospitalisation on the cost of treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis in South Africa

SETTING

The cost of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) treatment is a major barrier to treatment scale-up in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate and compare the cost of treatment for rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (RR-TB) in South Africa in different models of care in different settings.

DESIGN

We estimated the costs of different models of care with varying levels of hospitalisation. These costs were used to calculate the total cost of treating all diagnosed cases of RR-TB in South Africa, and to estimate the budget impact of adopting a fully or partially decentralised model vs. a fully hospitalised model.

RESULTS

The fully hospitalised model was 42% more costly than the fully decentralised model (US$13,432 vs. US$7753 per patient). A much shorter hospital stay in the decentralised models of care (44-57 days), compared to 128 days of hospitalisation in the fully hospitalised model, was the key contributor to the reduced cost of treatment. The annual total cost of treating all diagnosed cases ranged from US$110 million in the fully decentralised model to US$190 million in the fully hospitalised model.

CONCLUSION

Following a more decentralised approach for treating RR-TB patients could potentially improve the affordability of RR-TB treatment in South Africa.

Mycobacterial DNA extraction for whole-genome sequencing from early positive liquid (MGIT) cultures

We developed a low-cost and reliable method of DNA extraction from as little as 1 ml of early positive mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) cultures that is suitable for whole-genome sequencing to identify mycobacterial species and predict antibiotic resistance in clinical samples. The DNA extraction method is based on ethanol precipitation supplemented by pretreatment steps with a MolYsis kit or saline wash for the removal of human DNA and a final DNA cleanup step with solid-phase reversible immobilization beads. The protocol yielded ≥0.2 ng/μl of DNA for 90% (MolYsis kit) and 83% (saline wash) of positive MGIT cultures. A total of 144 (94%) of the 154 samples sequenced on the MiSeq platform (Illumina) achieved the target of 1 million reads, with <5% of reads derived from human or nasopharyngeal flora for 88% and 91% of samples, respectively. A total of 59 (98%) of 60 samples that were identified by the national mycobacterial reference laboratory (NMRL) as Mycobacterium tuberculosis were successfully mapped to the H37Rv reference, with >90% coverage achieved. The DNA extraction protocol, therefore, will facilitate fast and accurate identification of mycobacterial species and resistance using a range of bioinformatics tools.

How can mathematical models advance tuberculosis control in high HIV prevalence settings?

Existing approaches to tuberculosis (TB) control have been no more than partially successful in areas with high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence. In the context of increasingly constrained resources, mathematical modelling can augment understanding and support policy for implementing those strategies that are most likely to bring public health and economic benefits. In this paper, we present an overview of past and recent contributions of TB modelling in this key area, and suggest a way forward through a modelling research agenda that supports a more effective response to the TB-HIV epidemic, based on expert discussions at a meeting convened by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium. The research agenda identified high-priority areas for future modelling efforts, including 1) the difficult diagnosis and high mortality of TB-HIV; 2) the high risk of disease progression; 3) TB health systems in high HIV prevalence settings; 4) uncertainty in the natural progression of TB-HIV; and 5) combined interventions for TB-HIV. Efficient and rapid progress towards completion of this modelling agenda will require co-ordination between the modelling community and key stakeholders, including advocates, health policy makers, donors and national or regional finance officials. A continuing dialogue will ensure that new results are effectively communicated and new policy-relevant questions are addressed swiftly.

Mathematical Modelling and Tuberculosis: Advances in Diagnostics and Novel Therapies

As novel diagnostics, therapies, and algorithms are developed to improve case finding, diagnosis, and clinical management of patients with TB, policymakers must make difficult decisions and choose among multiple new technologies while operating under heavy resource constrained settings. Mathematical modelling can provide helpful insight by describing the types of interventions likely to maximize impact on the population level and highlighting those gaps in our current knowledge that are most important for making such assessments. This review discusses the major contributions of TB transmission models in general, namely, the ability to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of TB. We focus particularly on those elements that are important to appropriately understand the role of TB diagnosis and treatment (i.e., what elements of better diagnosis or treatment are likely to have greatest population-level impact) and yet remain poorly understood at present. It is essential for modellers, decision-makers, and epidemiologists alike to recognize these outstanding gaps in knowledge and understand their potential influence on model projections that may guide critical policy choices (e.g., investment and scale-up decisions).

Rapid diagnosis of pleural tuberculosis by Xpert MTB/RIF assay using pleural biopsy and pleural fluid specimens

BACKGROUND

Early pleural tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis is particularly difficult. The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of the Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA) assay using pleural biopsy and pleural fluid specimens in patients with suspected pleural TB but who had a negative sputum acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, 134 sputum smear-negative suspected pleural TB patients were selected. Paired pleural fluid and pleural biopsy specimens were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis by standard smear-microscopy, Lowenstein-Jensen and mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) culture, and the Xpert assay. Mycobacterial culture from pleural biopsy specimens was used as a reference standard for sensitivity and specificity calculations. Detection of rifampicin resistance was compared with the MGIT method.

RESULTS

Of 126 evaluable patients, 55 received a diagnosis of pleural TB. The sensitivity of the Xpert assay using pleural biopsy specimens for the diagnosis of pleural TB was 85.5%, and specificity was 97.2%. The sensitivity and specificity of the Xpert assay in pleural fluid were 43.6% and 98.6%, respectively. The Xpert assay correctly identified 90.0% of phenotypic rifampicin-resistant cases and 93.9% of phenotypic rifampicin-susceptible cases.

CONCLUSION

The Xpert assay on pleural biopsy specimens may provide an accurate diagnosis of pleural TB in patients who had a negative AFB smear.

Smear plus Detect-TB for a sensitive diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis: a cost-effectiveness analysis in an incarcerated population

Background

Prison conditions can favor the spread of tuberculosis (TB). This study aimed to evaluate in a Brazilian prison: the performance and accuracy of smear, culture and Detect-TB; performance of smear plus culture and smear plus Detect-TB, according to different TB prevalence rates; and the cost-effectiveness of these procedures for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) diagnosis.

Methods

This paper describes a cost-effectiveness study. A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the costs and cost-effectiveness of five routine diagnostic procedures for diagnosis of PTB using sputum specimens: a) Smear alone, b) Culture alone, c) Detect-TB alone, d) Smear plus culture and e) Smear plus Detect-TB. The cost-effectiveness ratio of costs were evaluated per correctly diagnosed TB case and all procedures costs were attributed based on the procedure costs adopted by the Brazilian Public Health System.

Results

A total of 294 spontaneous sputum specimens from patients suspected of having TB were analyzed. The sensibility and specificity were calculated to be 47% and 100% for smear; 93% and 100%, for culture; 74% and 95%, for Detect-TB; 96% and 100%, for smear plus culture; and 86% and 95%, for smear plus Detect-TB. The negative and positive predictive values for smear plus Detect-TB, according to different TB prevalence rates, ranged from 83 to 99% and 48 to 96%, respectively. In a cost-effectiveness analysis, smear was both less costly and less effective than the other strategies. Culture and smear plus culture were more effective but more costly than the other strategies. Smear plus Detect-TB was the most cost-effective method.

Conclusions

The Detect-TB evinced to be sensitive and effective for the PTB diagnosis when applied with smear microscopy. Diagnostic methods should be improved to increase TB case detection. To support rational decisions about the implementation of such techniques, cost-effectiveness studies are essential, including in prisons, which are known for health care assessment problems.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0678-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of replacing smear microscopy with Xpert MTB/RIF for diagnosing tuberculosis in Brazil: a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial

BACKGROUND

Abundant evidence on Xpert MTB/RIF accuracy for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance has been produced, yet there are few data on the population benefit of its programmatic use. We assessed whether the implementation of Xpert MTB/RIF in routine conditions would (1) increase the notification rate of laboratory-confirmed pulmonary TB to the national notification system and (2) reduce the time to TB treatment initiation (primary endpoints).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial from 4 February to 4 October 2012 in 14 primary care laboratories in two Brazilian cities. Diagnostic specimens were included for 11,705 baseline (smear microscopy) and 12,522 intervention (Xpert MTB/RIF) patients presumed to have TB. Single-sputum-sample Xpert MTB/RIF replaced two-sputum-sample smear microscopy for routine diagnosis of pulmonary TB. In total, 1,137 (9.7%) tests in the baseline arm and 1,777 (14.2%) in the intervention arm were positive (p<0.001), resulting in an increased bacteriologically confirmed notification rate of 59% (95% CI = 31%, 88%). However, the overall notification rate did not increase (15%, 95% CI =  -6%, 37%), and we observed no change in the notification rate for those without a test result (-3%, 95% CI = -37%, 30%). Median time to treatment decreased from 11.4 d (interquartile range [IQR] = 8.5-14.5) to 8.1 d (IQR = 5.4-9.3) (p = 0.04), although not among confirmed cases (median 7.5 [IQR = 4.9-10.0] versus 7.3 [IQR = 3.4-9.0], p = 0.51). Prevalence of rifampicin resistance detected by Xpert was 3.3% (95% CI = 2.4%, 4.3%) among new patients and 7.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 11.7%) among retreatment patients, with a 98% (95% CI = 87%, 99%) positive predictive value compared to phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Missing data in the information systems may have biased our primary endpoints. However, sensitivity analyses assessing the effects of missing data did not affect our results.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacing smear microscopy with Xpert MTB/RIF in Brazil increased confirmation of pulmonary TB. An additional benefit was the accurate detection of rifampicin resistance. However, no increase on overall notification rates was observed, possibly because of high rates of empirical TB treatment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01363765. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The impact of novel tests for tuberculosis depends on the diagnostic cascade

The role of novel tests for TB in reducing morbidity and mortality depends on the system in which they are implemented.

Impact of Xpert MTB/RIF for TB diagnosis in a primary care clinic with high TB and HIV prevalence in South Africa: a pragmatic randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Xpert MTB/RIF is approved for use in tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin-resistance diagnosis. However, data are limited on the impact of Xpert under routine conditions in settings with high TB burden.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A pragmatic prospective cluster-randomised trial of Xpert for all individuals with presumptive (symptomatic) TB compared to the routine diagnostic algorithm of sputum microscopy and limited use of culture was conducted in a large TB/HIV primary care clinic. The primary outcome was the proportion of bacteriologically confirmed TB cases not initiating TB treatment by 3 mo after presentation. Secondary outcomes included time to TB treatment and mortality. Unblinded randomisation occurred on a weekly basis. Xpert and smear microscopy were performed on site. Analysis was both by intention to treat (ITT) and per protocol. Between 7 September 2010 and 28 October 2011, 1,985 participants were assigned to the Xpert (n = 982) and routine (n = 1,003) diagnostic algorithms (ITT analysis); 882 received Xpert and 1,063 routine (per protocol analysis). 13% (32/257) of individuals with bacteriologically confirmed TB (smear, culture, or Xpert) did not initiate treatment by 3 mo after presentation in the Xpert arm, compared to 25% (41/167) in the routine arm (ITT analysis, risk ratio 0.51, 95% CI 0.33-0.77, p = 0.0052). The yield of bacteriologically confirmed TB cases among patients with presumptive TB was 17% (167/1,003) with routine diagnosis and 26% (257/982) with Xpert diagnosis (ITT analysis, risk ratio 1.57, 95% CI 1.32-1.87, p<0.001). This difference in diagnosis rates resulted in a higher rate of treatment initiation in the Xpert arm: 23% (229/1,003) and 28% (277/982) in the routine and Xpert arms, respectively (ITT analysis, risk ratio 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.44, p = 0.013). Time to treatment initiation was improved overall (ITT analysis, hazard ratio 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.92, p = 0.005) and among HIV-infected participants (ITT analysis, hazard ratio 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.85, p = 0.001). There was no difference in 6-mo mortality with Xpert versus routine diagnosis. Study limitations included incorrect intervention allocation for a high proportion of participants and that the study was conducted in a single clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

These data suggest that in this routine primary care setting, use of Xpert to diagnose TB increased the number of individuals with bacteriologically confirmed TB who were treated by 3 mo and reduced time to treatment initiation, particularly among HIV-infected participants.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR201010000255244. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

How much is tuberculosis screening worth? Estimating the value of active case finding for tuberculosis in South Africa, China, and India

BACKGROUND

Current approaches are unlikely to achieve the aggressive global tuberculosis (TB) control targets set for 2035 and beyond. Active case finding (ACF) may be an important tool for augmenting existing strategies, but the cost-effectiveness of ACF remains uncertain. Program evaluators can often measure the cost of ACF per TB case detected, but how this accessible measure translates into traditional metrics of cost-effectiveness, such as the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY), remains unclear.

METHODS

We constructed dynamic models of TB in India, China, and South Africa to explore the medium-term impact and cost-effectiveness of generic ACF activities, conceptualized separately as discrete (2-year) campaigns and as continuous activities integrated into ongoing TB control programs. Our primary outcome was the cost per DALY, measured in relationship to the cost per TB case actively detected and started on treatment.

RESULTS

Discrete campaigns costing up to $1,200 (95% uncertainty range [UR] 850-2,043) per case actively detected and started on treatment in India, $3,800 (95% UR 2,706-6,392) in China, and $9,400 (95% UR 6,957-13,221) in South Africa were all highly cost-effective (cost per DALY averted less than per capita gross domestic product). Prolonged integration was even more effective and cost-effective. Short-term assessments of ACF dramatically underestimated potential longer term gains; for example, an assessment of an ACF program at 2 years might find a non-significant 11% reduction in prevalence, but a 10-year evaluation of that same intervention would show a 33% reduction.

CONCLUSIONS

ACF can be a powerful and highly cost-effective tool in the fight against TB. Given that short-term assessments may dramatically underestimate medium-term effectiveness, current willingness to pay may be too low. ACF should receive strong consideration as a basic tool for TB control in most high-burden settings, even when it may cost over $1,000 to detect and initiate treatment for each extra case of active TB.

Modeling of novel diagnostic strategies for active tuberculosis - a systematic review: current practices and recommendations

Introduction

The field of diagnostics for active tuberculosis (TB) is rapidly developing. TB diagnostic modeling can help to inform policy makers and support complicated decisions on diagnostic strategy, with important budgetary implications. Demand for TB diagnostic modeling is likely to increase, and an evaluation of current practice is important. We aimed to systematically review all studies employing mathematical modeling to evaluate cost-effectiveness or epidemiological impact of novel diagnostic strategies for active TB.

Methods

Pubmed, personal libraries and reference lists were searched to identify eligible papers. We extracted data on a wide variety of model structure, parameter choices, sensitivity analyses and study conclusions, which were discussed during a meeting of content experts.

Results & Discussion

From 5619 records a total of 36 papers were included in the analysis. Sixteen papers included population impact/transmission modeling, 5 were health systems models, and 24 included estimates of cost-effectiveness. Transmission and health systems models included specific structure to explore the importance of the diagnostic pathway (n = 4), key determinants of diagnostic delay (n = 5), operational context (n = 5), and the pre-diagnostic infectious period (n = 1). The majority of models implemented sensitivity analysis, although only 18 studies described multi-way sensitivity analysis of more than 2 parameters simultaneously. Among the models used to make cost-effectiveness estimates, most frequent diagnostic assays studied included Xpert MTB/RIF (n = 7), and alternative nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) (n = 4). Most (n = 16) of the cost-effectiveness models compared new assays to an existing baseline and generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

Conclusion

Although models have addressed a small number of important issues, many decisions regarding implementation of TB diagnostics are being made without the full benefits of insight from mathematical models. Further models are needed that address a wider array of diagnostic and epidemiological settings, that explore the inherent uncertainty of models and that include additional epidemiological data on transmission implications of false-negative diagnosis and the pre-diagnostic period.

Modeling the impact of novel diagnostic tests on pediatric and extrapulmonary tuberculosis

Background

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) and most pediatric TB cannot be diagnosed using sputum-based assays. The epidemiological impact of different strategies to diagnose EPTB and pediatric TB is unclear.

Methods

We developed a dynamic epidemic model of TB in a hypothetical population with epidemiological characteristics similar to India. We evaluated the impact of four alternative diagnostic test platforms on adult EPTB and pediatric TB mortality over 10 years: (1) Nucleic acid amplification test optimized for diagnosis of EPTB (“NAAT-EPTB”); (2) NAAT optimized for pediatric TB (“NAAT-Peds”); (3) more deployable NAAT for sputum-based diagnosis of adult pulmonary TB (“point-of-care (POC) sputum NAAT”); and (4) more deployable NAAT capable of diagnosing all forms of TB using non-invasive, non-sputum specimens (“POC non-sputum NAAT”).

Results

NAAT-EPTB lowered adult EPTB mortality by a projected 7.6% (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 6.5-8.8%). NAAT-Peds lowered pediatric TB mortality by 6.8% (UR: 4.9-8.4%). POC sputum NAAT, though only able to diagnose pulmonary TB, reduced projected pediatric TB deaths by 13.3% (UR: 4.6-15.7%) and adult EPTB deaths by 8.4% (UR 2.0-9.3%) simply by averting transmission of disease. POC non-sputum NAAT had the greatest effect, lowering pediatric TB mortality by 34.7% (UR: 26.8-38.7), and adult EPTB mortality by 38.5% (UR: 30.7-41.2). The relative impact of a POC sputum NAAT (i.e., enhanced deployability) versus NAAT-EPTB (i.e., enhanced ability to specifically diagnose TB-NSP) on adult EPTB mortality depends most strongly on factors that influence transmission, with settings of higher transmission (e.g., higher per-person transmission rate, lower diagnostic rate) favoring POC sputum NAAT.

Conclusion

Although novel tests for pediatric TB and EPTB are likely to reduce TB mortality, major reductions in pediatric and EPTB incidence and mortality also require better diagnostic tests for adult pulmonary TB that reach a larger population.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-477) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

HIV, tuberculosis, and noncommunicable diseases: what is known about the costs, effects, and cost-effectiveness of integrated care?

Unprecedented investments in health systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have resulted in more than 8 million individuals on antiretroviral therapy. Such individuals experience dramatically increased survival but are increasingly at risk of developing common noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Integrating clinical care for HIV, other infectious diseases, and NCDs could make health services more effective and provide greater value. Cost-effectiveness analysis is a method to evaluate the clinical benefits and costs associated with different health care interventions and offers guidance for prioritization of investments and scale-up, especially as resources are increasingly constrained. We first examine tuberculosis and HIV as 1 example of integrated care already successfully implemented in several LMICs; we then review the published literature regarding cervical cancer and depression as 2 examples of NCDs for which integrating care with HIV services could offer excellent value. Direct evidence of the benefits of integrated services generally remains scarce; however, data suggest that improved effectiveness and reduced costs may be attained by integrating additional services with existing HIV clinical care. Further investigation into clinical outcomes and costs of care for NCDs among people living with HIV in LMICs will help to prioritize specific health care services by contributing to an understanding of the affordability and implementation of an integrated approach.

The importance of implementation strategy in scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF for diagnosis of tuberculosis in the Indian health-care system: a transmission model

BACKGROUND

India has announced a goal of universal access to quality tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis and treatment. A number of novel diagnostics could help meet this important goal. The rollout of one such diagnostic, Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is being considered, but if Xpert is used mainly for people with HIV or high risk of multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) in the public sector, population-level impact may be limited.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a model of TB transmission, care-seeking behavior, and diagnostic/treatment practices in India and explored the impact of six different rollout strategies. Providing Xpert to 40% of public-sector patients with HIV or prior TB treatment (similar to current national strategy) reduced TB incidence by 0.2% (95% uncertainty range [UR]: -1.4%, 1.7%) and MDR-TB incidence by 2.4% (95% UR: -5.2%, 9.1%) relative to existing practice but required 2,500 additional MDR-TB treatments and 60 four-module GeneXpert systems at maximum capacity. Further including 20% of unselected symptomatic individuals in the public sector required 700 systems and reduced incidence by 2.1% (95% UR: 0.5%, 3.9%); a similar approach involving qualified private providers (providers who have received at least some training in allopathic or non-allopathic medicine) reduced incidence by 6.0% (95% UR: 3.9%, 7.9%) with similar resource outlay, but only if high treatment success was assured. Engaging 20% of all private-sector providers (qualified and informal [providers with no formal medical training]) had the greatest impact (14.1% reduction, 95% UR: 10.6%, 16.9%), but required >2,200 systems and reliable treatment referral. Improving referrals from informal providers for smear-based diagnosis in the public sector (without Xpert rollout) had substantially greater impact (6.3% reduction) than Xpert scale-up within the public sector. These findings are subject to substantial uncertainty regarding private-sector treatment patterns, patient care-seeking behavior, symptoms, and infectiousness over time; these uncertainties should be addressed by future research.

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of new diagnostics for TB control in India depends on implementation within the complex, fragmented health-care system. Transformative strategies will require private/informal-sector engagement, adequate referral systems, improved treatment quality, and substantial resources. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

A user-friendly, open-source tool to project impact and cost of diagnostic tests for tuberculosis

Most models of infectious diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), do not provide results customized to local conditions. We created a dynamic transmission model to project TB incidence, TB mortality, multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB prevalence, and incremental costs over 5 years after scale-up of nine alternative diagnostic strategies. A corresponding web-based interface allows users to specify local costs and epidemiology. In settings with little capacity for up-front investment, same-day microscopy had the greatest impact on TB incidence and became cost-saving within 5 years if delivered at $10/test. With greater initial investment, population-level scale-up of Xpert MTB/RIF or microcolony-based culture often averted 10 times more TB cases than narrowly-targeted strategies, at minimal incremental long-term cost. Xpert for smear-positive TB had reasonable impact on MDR-TB incidence, but at substantial price and little impact on overall TB incidence and mortality. This user-friendly modeling framework improves decision-makers' ability to evaluate the local impact of TB diagnostic strategies.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02565.001

Tuberculosis is an infectious bacterial disease caused predominantly by the microorganism Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Although the number of deaths from tuberculosis has been falling in recent years, the disease still kills more than 1 million people every year, mainly in developing countries. Tuberculosis can be treated with antibiotics, but the emergence of bacteria that are resistant to existing drugs is threatening efforts to eradicate the disease.

Preventing the spread of tuberculosis is heavily dependent on accurate diagnosis of individuals with the disease. This is challenging because the initial symptoms are often mild, usually just a cough, which means that someone can spread the disease to many others over a period of several months before the symptoms become worse—fever, night sweats, and weight loss—and they realize that they are sick. Multiple diagnostic strategies are available, from the relatively low-tech—examining sputum samples under a microscope to detect tuberculosis bacteria—to more sophisticated tests that can detect bacterial DNA and determine whether the bacteria are drug-resistant in less than 2 hr.

Choosing which diagnostic strategy to adopt can be challenging because the optimal solution in a region will depend on the specific local conditions. To overcome this problem, Dowdy et al. have developed a computer program that enables decision-makers to input four key parameters that describe the tuberculosis situation in their region, and to obtain 5-year projections of the rate of new infections, mortality, and total costs likely to result from adopting any of nine different diagnostic strategies.

The four parameters are the number of new cases of tuberculosis each year (incidence), the proportion of new cases that are multi-drug resistant, the proportion of the adult population that has HIV, and the local costs of various diagnostic techniques and treatments. Since the entire computer program is written in a freely available open-source programming language (Python), any user can tweak these parameters to provide a more precise fit to their own region. Alternatively, the standard version of the program can be run directly from a website without any need to interact with computer code.

This model is the first to enable local decision-makers to evaluate the impact of different diagnostic strategies for tuberculosis under the conditions specific to their region. The model predicts, for example, that in areas where there is little money available for up-front investment, same-day microscopy analysis of sputum samples and starting patients on treatment is the most cost-effective strategy for reducing the rate of new infections. Given the wide variation in conditions within even small geographical areas, this more flexible approach should lead to the more efficient use of resources and may, ultimately, help to reduce the spread of tuberculosis.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02565.002

Novel diagnostics and therapeutics for drug-resistant tuberculosis

INTRODUCTION

Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. This is at least partly due to late diagnosis and ineffective treatment of drug-resistant status.

SOURCES OF DATA

Selective search of the literature on DR-TB supplemented by recent guidelines from the World Health Organization.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

Better and more rapid diagnosis of DR-TB by new techniques such as Xpert Mtb/RIF are likely to make a substantial impact on the disease. New therapeutics for DR-TB are entering, or about to enter the market for the first time in decades.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

It is not clear whether new treatments should be restricted for DR-TB or also used for drug-susceptible tuberculosis.

GROWING POINTS

With several new agents on the horizon, there is the real possibility of an entirely new regimen for tuberculosis.

AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

An inexpensive 'near-patient' diagnostic test is still needed. Optimizing new drug combination regimens in a timely manner is urgently required.

Global control of tuberculosis: from extensively drug-resistant to untreatable tuberculosis

Extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis is a burgeoning global health crisis mainly affecting economically active young adults, and has high mortality irrespective of HIV status. In some countries such as South Africa, drug-resistant tuberculosis represents less than 3% of all cases but consumes more than a third of the total national budget for tuberculosis, which is unsustainable and threatens to destabilise national tuberculosis programmes. However, concern about drug-resistant tuberculosis has been eclipsed by that of totally and extremely drug-resistant tuberculosis--ie, resistance to all or nearly all conventional first-line and second-line antituberculosis drugs. In this Review, we discuss the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, management, implications for health-care workers, and ethical and medicolegal aspects of extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis and other resistant strains. Finally, we discuss the emerging problem of functionally untreatable tuberculosis, and the issues and challenges that it poses to public health and clinical practice. The emergence and growth of highly resistant strains of tuberculosis make the development of new drugs and rapid diagnostics for tuberculosis--and increased funding to strengthen global control efforts, research, and advocacy--even more pressing.

The medical and surgical treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis

Multi drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and extensively drug-resistant TB (XDR-TB) are burgeoning global problems with high mortality which threaten to destabilise TB control programs in several parts of the world. Of alarming concern is the emergence, in large numbers, of patients with resistance beyond XDR-TB (totally drug-resistant TB; TDR-TB or extremely drug resistant TB; XXDR-TB). Given the burgeoning global phenomenon of MDR-TB, XDR-TB and TDR-TB, and increasing international migration and travel, healthcare workers, researchers, and policy makers in TB endemic and non-endemic countries should familiarise themselves with issues relevant to the management of these patients. Given the lack of novel TB drugs and limited access to existing drugs such as linezolid and bedaquiline in TB endemic countries, significant numbers of therapeutic failures are emerging from the ranks of those with XDR-TB. Given the lack of appropriate facilities in resource-limited settings, such patients are being discharged back into the community where there is likely ongoing disease spread. In the absence of effective drug regimens, in appropriate patients, surgery is a critical part of management. Here we review the diagnosis, medical and surgical management of MDR-TB and XDR-TB.

Tuberculosis screening in high human immunodeficiency virus prevalence settings: turning promise into reality

Twenty years of sky-high tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates and high TB mortality in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence countries have so far not been matched by the same magnitude or breadth of responses as seen in malaria or HIV programmes. Instead, recommendations have been narrowly focused on people presenting to health facilities for investigation of TB symptoms, or for HIV testing and care. However, despite the recent major investment and scale-up of TB and HIV services, undiagnosed TB remains highly prevalent at community level, implying that diagnosis of TB remains slow and incomplete. This maintains high transmission rates and exposes people living with HIV to high rates of morbidity and mortality. More intensive use of TB screening, with broader definitions of target populations, expanded indications for screening both inside and outside of health facilities, and appropriate selection of new diagnostic tools, offers the prospect of rapidly improving population-level control of TB. Diagnostic accuracy of suitable (high throughput) algorithms remains the major barrier to realising this goal. In the present study, we review the evidence available to guide expanded TB screening in HIV-prevalent settings, ideally through combined TB-HIV interventions that provide screening for both TB and HIV, and maximise entry to HIV and TB care and prevention. Ideally, we would systematically test, treat and prevent TB and HIV comprehensively, offering both TB and HIV screening to all health facility attendees, TB households and all adults in the highest risk communities. However, we are still held back by inadequate diagnostics, financing and paucity of population-impact data. Relevant contemporary research showing the high need for potential gains, and pitfalls from expanded and intensified TB screening in high HIV prevalence settings are discussed in this review.

Molecular diagnostics for gonorrhoea: implications for antimicrobial resistance and the threat of untreatable gonorrhoea

This Essay from Nicola Low and colleagues discusses the importance of the nucleic acid amplification tests for rapid detection of N. gonorrhoeae and its resistance determinants, as well as the importance of ensuring their rational use, as priorities for controlling both gonorrhoea and antimicrobial resistance.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Feasibility, accuracy, and clinical effect of point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF testing for tuberculosis in primary-care settings in Africa: a multicentre, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The Xpert MTB/RIF test for tuberculosis is being rolled out in many countries, but evidence is lacking regarding its implementation outside laboratories, ability to inform same-day treatment decisions at the point of care, and clinical effect on tuberculosis-related morbidity. We aimed to assess the feasibility, accuracy, and clinical effect of point-of-care Xpert MTB/RIF testing at primary-care health-care facilities in southern Africa.

METHODS

In this pragmatic, randomised, parallel-group, multicentre trial, we recruited adults with symptoms suggestive of active tuberculosis from five primary-care health-care facilities in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Tanzania. Eligible patients were randomly assigned using pregenerated tables to nurse-performed Xpert MTB/RIF at the clinic or sputum smear microscopy. Participants with a negative test result were empirically managed according to local WHO-compliant guidelines. Our primary outcome was tuberculosis-related morbidity (measured with the TBscore and Karnofsky performance score [KPS]) in culture-positive patients who had begun anti-tuberculosis treatment, measured at 2 months and 6 months after randomisation, analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT01554384.

FINDINGS

Between April 12, 2011, and March 30, 2012, we randomly assigned 758 patients to smear microscopy (182 culture positive) and 744 to Xpert MTB/RIF (185 culture positive). Median TBscore in culture-positive patients did not differ between groups at 2 months (2 [IQR 0-3] in the smear microscopy group vs 2 [0·25-3] in the MTB/RIF group; p=0·85) or 6 months (1 [0-3] vs 1 [0-3]; p=0·35), nor did median KPS at 2 months (80 [70-90] vs 90 [80-90]; p=0·23) or 6 months (100 [90-100] vs 100 [90-100]; p=0·85). Point-of-care MTB/RIF had higher sensitivity than microscopy (154 [83%] of 185 vs 91 [50%] of 182; p=0·0001) but similar specificity (517 [95%] 544 vs 540 [96%] of 560; p=0·25), and had similar sensitivity to laboratory-based MTB/RIF (292 [83%] of 351; p=0·99) but higher specificity (952 [92%] of 1037; p=0·0173). 34 (5%) of 744 tests with point-of-care MTB/RIF and 82 (6%) of 1411 with laboratory-based MTB/RIF failed (p=0·22). Compared with the microscopy group, more patients in the MTB/RIF group had a same-day diagnosis (178 [24%] of 744 vs 99 [13%] of 758; p<0·0001) and same-day treatment initiation (168 [23%] of 744 vs 115 [15%] of 758; p=0·0002). Although, by end of the study, more culture-positive patients in the MTB/RIF group were on treatment due to reduced dropout (15 [8%] of 185 in the MTB/RIF group did not receive treatment vs 28 [15%] of 182 in the microscopy group; p=0·0302), the proportions of all patients on treatment in each group by day 56 were similar (320 [43%] of 744 in the MTB/RIF group vs 317 [42%] of 758 in the microscopy group; p=0·6408).

INTERPRETATION

Xpert MTB/RIF can be accurately administered by a nurse in primary-care clinics, resulting in more patients starting same-day treatment, more culture-positive patients starting therapy, and a shorter time to treatment. However, the benefits did not translate into lower tuberculosis-related morbidity, partly because of high levels of empirical-evidence-based treatment in smear-negative patients.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, National Research Foundation, and Claude Leon Foundation.

Do high rates of empirical treatment undermine the potential effect of new diagnostic tests for tuberculosis in high-burden settings?

In tuberculosis-endemic settings, patients are often treated empirically, meaning that they are placed on treatment based on clinical symptoms or tests that do not provide a microbiological diagnosis (eg, chest radiography). New tests for tuberculosis, such as the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA), are being implemented at substantial cost. To inform policy and rationally drive implementation, data are needed for how these tests affect morbidity, mortality, transmission, and population-level tuberculosis burden. If people diagnosed by use of new diagnostics would have received empirical treatment a few days later anyway, then the incremental benefit might be small. Will new diagnostics substantially improve outcomes and disease burden, or simply displace empirical treatment? Will the extent and accuracy of empirical treatment change with the introduction of a new test? In this Personal View, we review emerging data for how empirical treatment is frequently same-day, and might still be the predominant form of treatment in high-burden settings, even after Xpert implementation; and how Xpert might displace so-called true-positive, rather than false-positive, empirical treatment. We suggest types of studies needed to accurately assess the effect of new tuberculosis tests and the role of empirical treatment in real-world settings. Until such questions can be addressed, and empirical treatment is appropriately characterised, we postulate that the estimated population-level effect of new tests such as Xpert might be substantially overestimated.

Do we need to detect isoniazid resistance in addition to rifampicin resistance in diagnostic tests for tuberculosis?

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is resistant to both rifampicin (RIF) and isoniazid (INH). Whereas many TB diagnostics detect RIF-resistance, few detect INH-monoresistance, which is common and may increase risk of acquired MDR-TB. Whether inclusion of INH-resistance in a first-line rapid test for TB would have an important impact on MDR-TB rates remains uncertain.

METHODS

WE DEVELOPED A TRANSMISSION MODEL TO EVALUATE THREE TESTS IN A POPULATION SIMILAR TO THAT OF INDIA: a rapid molecular test for TB, the same test plus RIF-resistance detection ("TB+RIF"), and detection of RIF and INH-resistance ("TB+RIF/INH"). Our primary outcome was the prevalence of INH-resistant and MDR-TB at ten years.

RESULTS

Compared to the TB test alone and assuming treatment of all diagnosed MDR cases, the TB+RIF test reduced the prevalence of MDR-TB among all TB cases from 5.5% to 3.8% (30.6% reduction, 95% uncertainty range, UR: 17-54%). Despite using liberal assumptions about the impact of INH-monoresistance on treatment outcomes and MDR-TB acquisition, expansion from TB+RIF to TB+RIF/INH lowered this prevalence only from 3.8% to 3.6% further (4% reduction, 95% UR: 3-7%) and INH-monoresistant TB from 15.8% to 15.1% (4% reduction, 95% UR: (-8)-19%).

CONCLUSION

When added to a rapid test for TB plus RIF-resistance, detection of INH-resistance has minimal impact on transmission of TB, MDR-TB, and INH-monoresistant TB.

The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on tuberculosis outcomes in South Africa: results from three tuberculosis-HIV transmission models

OBJECTIVE(S)

Many countries are considering expanding HIV treatment following recent findings emphasizing the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on reducing HIV transmission in addition to already established survival benefits. Given the close interaction of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV epidemics, ART expansion could have important ramifications for TB burden. Previous studies suggest a wide range of possible TB impacts following ART expansion. We used three independently developed TB-HIV models to estimate the TB-related impact of expanding ART in South Africa.

DESIGN

We considered two dimensions of ART expansion--improving coverage of pre-ART and ART services, and expanding CD4-based ART eligibility criteria (from CD4 <350 to CD4 <500 or all HIV-positive).

METHODS

Three independent mathematical models were calibrated to the same data pertaining to the South African HIV-TB epidemic, and used to assess standardized ART policy changes. Key TB impact indicators were projected from 2014 to 2033.

RESULTS

Compared with current eligibility and coverage, cumulative TB incidence was projected to decline by 6-30% over the period 2014-2033 if ART eligibility were expanded to all HIV positive individuals, and by 28-37% if effective ART coverage were additionally increased to 80%. Overall, expanding ART was estimated to avert one TB case for each 10-13 additional person-years of ART. All models showed that TB incidence and mortality reductions would grow over time, but would stabilize towards the end of the projection period.

CONCLUSION

ART expansion could substantially reduce TB incidence and mortality in South Africa and could provide a platform for collaborative HIV-TB programs to effectively halt HIV-associated TB.

Optimal triage test characteristics to improve the cost-effectiveness of the Xpert MTB/RIF assay for TB diagnosis: a decision analysis

Background

High costs are a limitation to scaling up the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in resource-constrained settings. A triaging strategy in which a sensitive but not necessarily highly specific rapid test is used to select patients for Xpert may result in a more affordable diagnostic algorithm. To inform the selection and development of particular diagnostics as a triage test we explored combinations of sensitivity, specificity and cost at which a hypothetical triage test will improve affordability of the Xpert assay.

Methods

In a decision analytical model parameterized for Uganda, India and South Africa, we compared a diagnostic algorithm in which a cohort of patients with presumptive TB received Xpert to a triage algorithm whereby only those with a positive triage test were tested by Xpert.

Findings

A triage test with sensitivity equal to Xpert, 75% specificity, and costs of US$5 per patient tested reduced total diagnostic costs by 42% in the Uganda setting, and by 34% and 39% respectively in the India and South Africa settings. When exploring triage algorithms with lower sensitivity, the use of an example triage test with 95% sensitivity relative to Xpert, 75% specificity and test costs $5 resulted in similar cost reduction, and was cost-effective by the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold compared to Xpert for all in Uganda, but not in India and South Africa. The gain in affordability of the examined triage algorithms increased with decreasing prevalence of tuberculosis among the cohort.

Conclusions

A triage test strategy could potentially improve the affordability of Xpert for TB diagnosis, particularly in low-income countries and with enhanced case-finding. Tests and markers with lower accuracy than desired of a diagnostic test may fall within the ranges of sensitivity, specificity and cost required for triage tests and be developed as such.

Modeling the impact of alternative strategies for rapid molecular diagnosis of tuberculosis in Southeast Asia

Novel diagnostic tests hold promise for improving tuberculosis (TB) control, but their epidemiologic impact remains uncertain. Using data from the World Health Organization (2011-2012), we developed a transmission model to evaluate the deployment of 3 hypothetical TB diagnostic tests in Southeast Asia under idealized scenarios of implementation. We defined diagnostics by their sensitivity for smear-negative TB and proportion of patients testing positive who initiate therapy ("point-of-care amenability"), with tests of increasing point-of-care amenability having lower sensitivity. Implemented in the public sector (35% of care-seeking attempts), each novel test reduced TB incidence by 7%-9% (95% uncertainty range: 4%-13%) and mortality by 20%-22% (95% uncertainty range: 14%-27%) after 10 years. If also deployed in the private sector (65% of attempts), these tests reduced incidence by 13%-16%, whereas a perfect test (100% sensitivity and treatment initiation) reduced incidence by 20%. Annually detecting 20% of prevalent TB cases through targeted screening (70% smear-negative sensitivity, 85% treatment initiation) also reduced incidence by 19%. Sensitivity and point-of-care amenability are equally important considerations when developing novel diagnostic tests for TB. Novel diagnostics can substantially reduce TB incidence and mortality in Southeast Asia but are unlikely to transform TB control unless they are deployed actively and in the private sector.

Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models

BACKGROUND

New WHO guidelines recommend ART initiation for HIV-positive persons with CD4 cell counts ≤500 cells/µL, a higher threshold than was previously recommended. Country decision makers must consider whether to further expand ART eligibility accordingly.

METHODS

We used multiple independent mathematical models in four settings-South Africa, Zambia, India, and Vietnam-to evaluate the potential health impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different adult ART eligibility criteria under scenarios of current and expanded treatment coverage, with results projected over 20 years. Analyses considered extending eligibility to include individuals with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL or all HIV-positive adults, compared to the previous recommendation of initiation with CD4 ≤350 cells/µL. We assessed costs from a health system perspective, and calculated the incremental cost per DALY averted ($/DALY) to compare competing strategies. Strategies were considered 'very cost-effective' if the $/DALY was less than the country's per capita gross domestic product (GDP; South Africa: $8040, Zambia: $1425, India: $1489, Vietnam: $1407) and 'cost-effective' if $/DALY was less than three times per capita GDP.

FINDINGS

In South Africa, the cost per DALY averted of extending ART eligibility to CD4 ≤500 cells/µL ranged from $237 to $1691/DALY compared to 2010 guidelines; in Zambia, expanded eligibility ranged from improving health outcomes while reducing costs (i.e. dominating current guidelines) to $749/DALY. Results were similar in scenarios with substantially expanded treatment access and for expanding eligibility to all HIV-positive adults. Expanding treatment coverage in the general population was therefore found to be cost-effective. In India, eligibility for all HIV-positive persons ranged from $131 to $241/DALY and in Vietnam eligibility for CD4 ≤500 cells/µL cost $290/DALY. In concentrated epidemics, expanded access among key populations was also cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

Earlier ART eligibility is estimated to be very cost-effective in low- and middle-income settings, although these questions should be revisited as further information becomes available. Scaling-up ART should be considered among other high-priority health interventions competing for health budgets.

FUNDING

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

The value of serum prealbumin in the diagnosis and therapeutic response of tuberculosis: a retrospective study

Objective

The aim of this study was to examine serum prealbumin (PA) levels in patients with tuberculosis and lung cancer, and to evaluate the correlations of serum PA levels with clinicopathological characteristics.

Method

Total 760 patients were included in the study: 320 patients with tuberculosis, 320 patients with lung cancer, and 120 healthy subjects. Serum PA was detected using a biochemical analyzer to determine the value of serum PA in the diagnosis and therapeutic response of tuberculosis.

Results

Compared to lung cancer and healthy individuals, TB patients were more frequent in suffering from low serum PA (75.0% vs.30.9% vs.6.7%,P<0.01), and the serum PA levels of TB patients were significantly reduced (137.5±42.4 mg/L vs. 183.5±49.1 mg/L vs. 240.0±43.9 mg/L, P<0.01). Among various clinical characteristics, type (with pleuritis), age (≥60), ESR (>20 mm/h) and smoking status (≥20 pack×years) were associated with low serum PA levels of TB patients, while ECOG performance status (≥2) was associated with low serum PA levels of lung cancer patients. The change of serum PA levels was in accordance with the therapeutic effects of anti-TB drugs, which might present a valuable and objective indicator for monitoring the therapeutic effects of TB drugs on TB patients.

Conclusion

Low serum prealbumin levels are very common in TB patients and can be served as a potential indicator for differential diagnosis of lung cancer and monitoring the therapeutic effects of TB drugs.

Modeling the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment: how to buy the most 'health' when resources are limited

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To summarize recent cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) that evaluate optimal treatment strategies for persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA).

RECENT FINDINGS

Efforts to attain universal coverage of current treatment guidelines (e.g., initiation at CD4 cell count <350 cells/μl) are generally very costeffective. Expansion of access beyond current guidelines will additionally improve clinical outcomes and aversion of new HIV infections; however, cost-effectiveness is more uncertain. Increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) offers greater health benefit than investing the same funds in intensive laboratory monitoring for those on ART, particularly in those settings in which universal coverage has not yet been attained. Recommended ART regimens (e.g., tenofovir) have favorable cost-effectiveness when compared with substitution of newer, more expensive agents (e.g., rilpivirine, darunavir) or substitution of older, cheaper alternatives that are more toxic (e.g., stavudine).

SUMMARY

There is increasing use of CEA to evaluate decisions regarding HIV treatment in order to buy the most 'health' with limited resources. Expansion of ART access provides substantial clinical and preventive benefit and offers favorable cost-effectiveness. Intensive laboratory monitoring may not be the highest priority in settings in which resources are constrained. Further work on the economic impact, clinical effectiveness, and feasibility of ART treatment for all (e.g., no CD4 cell initiation criteria) is needed.

The diagnostic performance of a single GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay in an intensified tuberculosis case finding survey among HIV-infected prisoners in Malaysia

Background

Delays in tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis, particularly in prisons, is associated with detrimental outcomes. The new GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) offers accurate and rapid diagnosis of active TB, but its performance in improving case detection in high-transmission congregate settings has yet to be evaluated. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of a single Xpert assay in an intensified case finding survey among HIV-infected prisoners in Malaysia.

Methods

HIV-infected prisoners at a single site provided two early-morning sputum specimens to be examined using fluorescence smear microscopy, BACTEC MGIT 960 liquid culture and a single Xpert. The sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values of Xpert were calculated relative to gold-standard results using MGIT 960 liquid culture. Relevant clinical and demographic data were used to examine correlates of active TB disease.

Results

The majority of enrolled subjects with complete data (N=125) were men (90.4%), age <40 years (61.6%) and had injected drugs (75.2%). Median CD4 lymphocyte count was 337 cells/µL (IQR 149-492); only 19 (15.2%) were receiving antiretroviral therapy. Of 15 culture-positive TB cases, single Xpert assay accurately detected only eight previously undiagnosed TB cases, resulting in a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 53.3% (95% CI 30.12-75.2%), 100% (95% CI 96.6-100%), 100% (95% CI 67.56-100%) and 94.0% (95% CI 88.2-97.1%), respectively. Only 1 of 15 (6.7%) active TB cases was smear-positive. The prevalence (12%) of undiagnosed active pulmonary TB (15 of 125 prisoners) was high and associated with longer duration of drug use (AOR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03-1.26, for each year of drug use).

Conclusions

Single Xpert assay improved TB case detection and outperformed AFB smear microscopy, but yielded low screening sensitivity. Further examination of the impact of HIV infection on the diagnostic performance of the new assay alongside other screening methods in correctional settings is warranted.

Diagnostic accuracy of microscopic Observation Drug Susceptibility (MODS) assay for pediatric tuberculosis in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION

Microscopic [corrected] Observation Drug Susceptibility (MODS) has been shown to be an effective and rapid technique for early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). Thus far only a limited number of studies evaluating MODS have been performed in children and in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis. This study aims to assess relative accuracy and time to positive culture of MODS for TB diagnosis in children admitted to a general pediatric hospital in Vietnam.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Specimens from children with suspected TB were tested by smear, MODS and Lowenstein-Jensen agar (LJ). 1129 samples from 705 children were analyzed, including sputum (n=59), gastric aspirate (n=775), CSF (n=148), pleural fluid (n=33), BAL (n=41), tracheal fluid (n=45), other (n=28). 113 TB cases were defined based on the "clinical diagnosis" (confirmed and probable groups) as the reference standard, in which 26% (n=30) were diagnosed as extra-pulmonary TB. Analysis by patient shows that the overall sensitivity and specificity of smear, LJ and MODS against "clinical diagnosis" was 8.8% and 100%, 38.9% and 100%, 46% and 99.5% respectively with MODS significantly more sensitive than LJ culture (P=0.02). When analyzed by sample type, the sensitivity of MODS was significantly higher than LJ for gastric aspirates (P=0.004). The time to detection was also significantly shorter for MODS than LJ (7 days versus 32 days, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

MODS [corrected] is a sensitive and rapid culture technique for detecting TB in children. As MODS culture can be performed at a BSL2 facility and is inexpensive, it can therefore be recommended as a routine test for children with symptoms suggestive of TB in resource-limited settings.

Using Xpert MTB/RIF

Xpert MTB/RIF is an automated real-time polymerase chain reaction test for simultaneous detection of tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance. Xpert MTB/RIF has demonstrated excellent accuracy in clinical evaluation studies, but has reduced sensitivity for detection of smear-negative tuberculosis. Since sample processing and detection are largely automated, Xpert MTB/RIF is potentially suitable for implementation in resource-limited settings. There are, however, a number of practical constraints to the use of Xpert at the point-of-care. Xpert remains a relatively costly test, and clear demonstration of cost-effectiveness will be needed to support efforts to scale up testing in high burden countries.

Population-level impact of same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculosis diagnosis in Africa

Objective

To compare the population-level impact of two World Health Organization-endorsed strategies for improving the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB): same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF (Cepheid, USA).

Methods

We created a compartmental transmission model of TB in a representative African community, fit to the regional incidence and mortality of TB and HIV. We compared the population-level reduction in TB burden over ten years achievable with implementation over two years of same-day microscopy, Xpert MTB/RIF testing, and the combination of both approaches.

Findings

Same-day microscopy averted an estimated 11.0% of TB incidence over ten years (95% uncertainty range, UR: 3.3%–22.5%), and prevented 11.8% of all TB deaths (95% UR: 7.7%–27.1%). Scaling up Xpert MTB/RIF to all centralized laboratories to achieve 75% population coverage had similar impact on incidence (9.3% reduction, 95% UR: 1.9%–21.5%) and greater effect on mortality (23.8% reduction, 95% UR: 8.6%–33.4%). Combining the two strategies (i.e., same-day microscopy plus Xpert MTB/RIF) generated synergistic effects: an 18.7% reduction in incidence (95% UR: 5.6%–39.2%) and 33.1% reduction in TB mortality (95% UR: 18.1%–50.2%). By the end of year ten, combining same-day microscopy and Xpert MTB/RIF could reduce annual TB mortality by 44% relative to the current standard of care.

Conclusion

Scaling up novel diagnostic tests for TB and optimizing existing ones are complementary strategies that, when combined, may have substantial impact on TB epidemics in Africa.

Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) threatens to become the dominant form of tuberculosis in many parts of the world because of decades of inappropriate treatment on a global scale. Infection with MDR-TB is associated with poor outcomes because of delays in treatment and the need for complex, toxic, and long medication regimens. Most cases are undetected because of technological and economic barriers to diagnosing tuberculosis and the availability of assays to test for drug resistance. Experience in treating MDR-TB is scarce. Tuberculosis was once curable, but could become a potentially untreatable infectious disease unless efforts are made to control it.

Challenges in evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new diagnostic tests for HIV-associated tuberculosis

With an emerging array of rapid diagnostic tests for tuberculosis, cost-effectiveness analyses are needed to inform scale-up in various populations and settings. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated tuberculosis poses unique challenges in estimating and interpreting the cost-effectiveness of novel diagnostic tools. First, gains in sensitivity and specificity do not directly correlate with impact on clinical outcomes. Second, the cost-effectiveness of implementing tuberculosis diagnostics in HIV-infected populations is heavily influenced by downstream costs of HIV care. As a result, tuberculosis diagnostics may appear less cost-effective in this population than among HIV-uninfected individuals, raising important ethical and policy questions about the design and interpretation of cost-effectiveness analyses in this setting. Third, conventional cost-effectiveness benchmarks may be inadequate for making decisions about whether to adopt new diagnostics. If we are to appropriately deploy novel diagnostics for tuberculosis to people living with HIV in resource-constrained settings, these challenges in measuring cost-effectiveness must be more widely recognized and addressed.