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Wang J, Vahid S, Eberg M, Milroy S, Milkovich J, Wright FC, Hunter A, Kalladeen R, Zanchetta C, Wijeysundera HC, Irish J. Clearing the surgical backlog caused by COVID-19 in Ontario: a time series modelling study. CMAJ 2020; 192:E1347-E1356. [PMID: 32873541 DOI: 10.1503/cmaj.201521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 108] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/17/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To mitigate the effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), jurisdictions worldwide ramped down nonemergent surgeries, creating a global surgical backlog. We sought to estimate the size of the nonemergent surgical backlog during COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada, and the time and resources required to clear the backlog. METHODS We used 6 Ontario or Canadian population administrative sources to obtain data covering part or all of the period between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 13, 2020, on historical volumes and operating room throughput distributions by surgery type and region, and lengths of stay in ward and intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We used time series forecasting, queuing models and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the size of the backlog and clearance time for a +10% (+1 day per week at 50% capacity) surge scenario. RESULTS Between Mar. 15 and June 13, 2020, the estimated backlog in Ontario was 148 364 surgeries (95% prediction interval 124 508-174 589), an average weekly increase of 11 413 surgeries. Estimated backlog clearance time is 84 weeks (95% confidence interval [CI] 46-145), with an estimated weekly throughput of 717 patients (95% CI 326-1367) requiring 719 operating room hours (95% CI 431-1038), 265 ward beds (95% CI 87-678) and 9 ICU beds (95% CI 4-20) per week. INTERPRETATION The magnitude of the surgical backlog from COVID-19 raises serious implications for the recovery phase in Ontario. Our framework for modelling surgical backlog recovery can be adapted to other jurisdictions, using local data to assist with planning.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan Wang
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Saba Vahid
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Maria Eberg
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Shannon Milroy
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - John Milkovich
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Frances C Wright
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Amber Hunter
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Ryan Kalladeen
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Claudia Zanchetta
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Harindra C Wijeysundera
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont
| | - Jonathan Irish
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario) (Wang, Vahid, Eberg, Milroy, Milkovich, Wright, Hunter, Zanchetta, Irish); Division of General Surgery (Wright), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Trillium Gift of Life Network (Kalladeen); Schulich Heart Centre (Wijeysundera), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre; Division of Cardiology (Wijeysundera), Department of Medicine and Department of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery/Surgical Oncology (Irish), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre/University Health Network, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ont.
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Perrone MA, Youssefzadeh K, Serrano B, Limpisvasti O, Banffy M. The Impact of COVID-19 on the Sports Medicine Fellowship Class of 2020. Orthop J Sports Med 2020; 8:2325967120939901. [PMID: 32874996 PMCID: PMC7433378 DOI: 10.1177/2325967120939901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many US health systems suspended elective surgery at the recommendation of the US Surgeon General. This dramatically decreased case volumes for orthopaedic sports medicine fellows at academic institutions. Purpose: To describe how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the education of the sports medicine fellowship class of 2020 as well as the subsequent effects on their career plans and psychological well-being. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Methods: A 33-item survey was distributed via email to all American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine (AOSSM) 2020 fellow members on April 22, 2020. Frequencies are presented as raw totals and percentages of respondents. The Fisher exact test was used to determine statistical significance between nominal variables, with significance set at P < .05. Results: Of 210 registered fellows, 101 (48.1%) responded. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the typical case volume per week for most fellows (47.5%) was 11 to 15 cases. From the enactment of COVID-19 mitigation policies to the date of survey completion, 90.1% of fellows had performed fewer than 20 cases. A total of 32 fellows were presented with redeployment options by their fellowship program, with 10 redeployed mandatorily to other hospital departments. Fellows reported that web-based didactics (n = 100) and web-based journal clubs (n = 72) were utilized as alternative supplements in the absence of clinical education. There were 8 respondents who had either their prior contract or job offer rescinded, while 1 had a signed contract voided. As a result, 6 fellows now plan to matriculate into a previously unplanned fellowship. Also, 10 respondents’ intended practice start date was being delayed by their employer. Respondents whose postfellowship plans were affected were statistically more likely to experience doubts about readiness for practice (58.8% vs 20.3%, respectively; P = .005), anxiety about future career plans (94.4% vs 63.8%, respectively; P = .01), anxiety about their financial situation (86.7% vs 50.8%, respectively; P = .018), stress in personal relationships (58.8% vs 29.9%, respectively; P = .045), and signs or symptoms of depression (41.2% vs 11.1%, respectively; P = .007) compared with those whose plans were not affected. Conclusion: This survey illustrates that during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent suspension of elective surgery, there have been downstream effects to this group’s education, careers, board certification timeline, and potentially their social and/or emotional well-being.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Brian Serrano
- Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Orr Limpisvasti
- Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Michael Banffy
- Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute, Los Angeles, California, USA
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