Economic impact of dengue illness in the Americas

Protein-protein interactions of human viruses

Viruses infect their human hosts by a series of interactions between viral and host proteins, indicating that detailed knowledge of such virus-host interaction interfaces are critical for our understanding of viral infection mechanisms, disease etiology and the development of new drugs. In this review, we primarily survey human host-virus interaction data that are available from public databases following the standardized PSI-MS format. Notably, available host-virus protein interaction information is strongly biased toward a small number of virus families including herpesviridae, papillomaviridae, orthomyxoviridae and retroviridae. While we explore the reliability and relevance of these protein interactions we also survey the current knowledge about viruses functional and topological targets. Furthermore, we assess emerging frontiers of host-virus protein interaction research, focusing on protein interaction interfaces of hosts that are infected by different viruses and viruses that infect multiple hosts. Finally, we cover the current status of research that investigates the relationships of virus-targeted host proteins to other comorbidities as well as the influence of host-virus protein interactions on human metabolism.

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 5 years (2013-2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure-lag-response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure-lag-response functions of these indicators-rather than linear effects for individual lags-more appropriately described the climate-disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika.

CONCLUSION

We present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region.

The AWED trial (Applying Wolbachia to Eliminate Dengue) to assess the efficacy of Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments to reduce dengue incidence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background

Dengue and other arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including Zika and chikungunya, present an increasing public health challenge in tropical regions. Current vector control strategies have failed to curb disease transmission, but continue to be employed despite the absence of robust evidence for their effectiveness or optimal implementation. The World Mosquito Program has developed a novel approach to arbovirus control using Ae. aegypti stably transfected with Wolbachia bacterium, with a significantly reduced ability to transmit dengue, Zika and chikungunya in laboratory experiments. Modelling predicts this will translate to local elimination of dengue in most epidemiological settings. This study protocol describes the first trial to measure the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue virus transmission in the field.

Methods/design

The study is a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in a single site in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The aim is to determine whether large-scale deployment of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes leads to a measurable reduction in dengue incidence in treated versus untreated areas. The primary endpoint is symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue virus infection of any severity. The 26 km² study area was subdivided into 24 contiguous clusters, allocated randomly 1:1 to receive Wolbachia deployments or no intervention. We use a novel epidemiological study design, the cluster-randomised test-negative design trial, in which dengue cases and arbovirus-negative controls are sampled concurrently from among febrile patients presenting to a network of primary care clinics, with case or control status classified retrospectively based on the results of laboratory diagnostic testing. Efficacy is estimated from the odds ratio of Wolbachia exposure distribution (probability of living in a Wolbachia-treated area) among virologically confirmed dengue cases compared to test-negative controls. A secondary per-protocol analysis allows for individual Wolbachia exposure levels to be assessed to account for movements outside the cluster and the heterogeneity in local Wolbachia prevalence among treated clusters.

Discussion

The findings from this study will provide the first experimental evidence for the efficacy of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence. Together with observational evidence that is accumulating from pragmatic deployments of Wolbachia in other field sites, this will provide valuable data to estimate the effectiveness of this novel approach to arbovirus control, inform future cost-effectiveness estimates, and guide plans for large-scale deployments in other endemic settings.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT03055585. Registered on 14 February 2017.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-018-2670-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A serologic study of dengue in northwest Ethiopia: Suggesting preventive and control measures

BACKGROUND

Dengue is one of the most serious and rapidly spreading arboviral diseases in the world. Despite many acute febrile illnesses in Ethiopia, the burden of illness due to dengue in the country is largely unknown. Thus, the present study aimed to provide the first baseline data on seroprevalence and associated risk factors of dengue virus (DENV) infection in the country.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study of febrile patients who were visiting Metema and Humera hospitals in Northwest Ethiopia from March 2016 to May 2017 was conducted. Blood samples were collected from each participant and serum samples were separated and tested for IgM and IgG antibodies against DENV infection by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Risk factors associated with the prevalence of anti-DENV antibodies were tested using logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 600 samples tested, the overall seroprevalence against DENV infection was 33.3%, while the seroprevalence by the study area was 40% in Metema and 27.5% in Humera. The overall prevalence of IgM and IgG antibodies against DENV infection was 19% and 21% respectively. Of these, 6.7% were positive for both IgM and IgG antibodies. Residence and occupational status were significantly associated with the prevalence of anti-DENV IgM seropositivity and anti-DENV IgM-/G+serostatus. The seasonal variation was significantly associated with the prevalence of anti-DENV IgM but not with anti-DENV IgM-/G+serostatus. The prevalence of anti-DENV IgM-/G+serostatus was significantly higher in Metema than Humera. High prevalence of anti-DENV IgM seropositivity was found in the summer and spring, with a peak in the month of August. The presence of uncovered water either indoor or outdoor and lack of mosquito net use was identified as risk factors for DENV infection.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide the preliminary data on seroprevalence and associated risk factors of DENV infection in the country. The presence of antibodies against DENV infection indicates dengue as one of the causes of undifferentiated febrile illnesses in the study areas. This suggests that prevention and control measures should be designed considering the risk factors identified by this study. Furthermore, we recommend a large-scale study to include DENV infection in the differential diagnosis of all febrile illnesses in Ethiopia.

The Burden of Dengue Fever and Chikungunya in Southern Coastal Ecuador: Epidemiology, Clinical Presentation, and Phylogenetics from the First Two Years of a Prospective Study

Here, we report the findings from the first 2 years (2014-2015) of an arbovirus surveillance study conducted in Machala, Ecuador, a dengue-endemic region. Patients with suspected dengue virus (DENV) infections (index cases, N = 324) were referred from five Ministry of Health clinical sites. A subset of DENV-positive index cases (N = 44) were selected, and individuals from the index household and four neighboring homes within 200 m were recruited (N = 400). Individuals who entered the study, other than the index cases, are referred to as associates. In 2014, 70.9% of index cases and 35.6% of associates had acute or recent DENV infections. In 2015, 28.3% of index cases and 12.8% of associates had acute or recent DENV infections. For every DENV infection captured by passive surveillance, we detected an additional three acute or recent DENV infections in associates. Of associates with acute DENV infections, 68% reported dengue-like symptoms, with the highest prevalence of symptomatic acute infections in children aged less than 10 years. The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections were detected on epidemiological week 12 in 2015; 43.1% of index cases and 3.5% of associates had acute CHIKV infections. No Zika virus infections were detected. Phylogenetic analyses of isolates of DENV from 2014 revealed genetic relatedness and shared ancestry of DENV1, DENV2, and DENV4 genomes from Ecuador with those from Venezuela and Colombia, indicating the presence of viral flow between Ecuador and surrounding countries. Enhanced surveillance studies, such as this, provide high-resolution data on symptomatic and inapparent infections across the population.

Long-term epidemiological dynamics of dengue in Barbados - one of the English-speaking Caribbean countries

Using the dengue surveillance program, we prospectively collected data on all the suspected and confirmed cases of dengue in Barbados from 2006 to 2015. Data were analysed for demographic, seasonal and temporal dynamics of this disease in this country. The overall mean annual incidence rate of suspected and confirmed dengue over the study period was 0.49% (range 0.15%-0.99%) and 0.16% (range 0.05%-0.48%), respectively. There was a significant correlation between the mean monthly number of confirmed cases, the mean monthly rainfall and the mean monthly relative humidity percentage. Dengue in this population is predominantly an infection affecting children and young adults. The median age of the patients with both, suspected and confirmed dengue was 25 years and the highest proportion of cases was seen in the age group 0-15 years. The annual incidence rates of both the suspected and the confirmed cases showed an upward trend during the study period and this upward trend was more pronounced among children.

Alternative control of Aedes aegypti resistant to pyrethroids: lethal and sublethal effects of monoterpene bioinsecticides

BACKGROUND

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is intensively controlled because it is a vector of viruses that cause numerous diseases, especially in tropical regions. As a consequence of the indiscriminate use of insecticides, populations from different regions have become resistant to pyrethroids. Here, we analyzed the lethal and sublethal effects of essential oil of Aristolochia trilobata and its major compounds on A. aegypti from susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant populations.

RESULTS

Our results showed that the toxicity of the different compounds and behavioral changes in response to them are dependent on the stage of the insect life cycle. The monoterpene ρ-cymene caused high mortality in both larvae and adult females of A. aegypti, including those from the pyrethroid-resistant population. The monoterpenes limonene and linalool caused a sublethal effect in the larvae, triggering changes in the swimming pattern.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the potential of the essential oil of A. trilobata and its major compounds ρ-cymene and limonene for the control of A. aegypti and reveals the importance of analyzing sublethal effects on the population dynamics of the A. aegypti mosquito. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Dengue endemic and its impact on the gross national product of BRAZILIAN'S economy

In history disease has caused social and economic damage. Dengue is an illness typically found in the tropics that has affected more and more people. In Brazil, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in 2013 at least 12.9% of the population (25.8 million) reported already having had dengue in their life. So, how wide are the economic impacts that dengue's contagion has on the gross national product? Using Leontief's method, it became possible to estimate the direct and indirect impact on the workforce and output by one country. Workforce absenteeism reduced the national productiveness and welfare state where we found maximum inoperability of 0.027% and a minimum of 0.002%. This paper develops a methodology for estimation of the impact dengue has incurred in each sector of an economy; designing a ranking with sectors that have been more affected and forecasting the propagation of the endemic throughout a region. This research measures the impact of dengue on economy, the result was that the total loss of the Brazilian economy in 2013 was around BRL 1,023,174,876.83; the importance of 0.02% of the Gross Domestic Product.

Estimation of expected dengue seroprevalence from passive epidemiological surveillance systems in selected areas of Argentina: A proxy to evaluate the applicability of dengue vaccination

BACKGROUND

Current recommendations about dengue vaccination by the World Health Organization depend on seroprevalence levels and serological status in populations and individuals. However, seroprevalence estimation may be difficult due to a diversity of factors. Thus, estimation through models using data from epidemiological surveillance systems could be an alternative procedure to achieve this goal.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the expected dengue seroprevalence in children of selected areas in Argentina, using a simple model based on data from passive epidemiological surveillance systems.

METHODS

A Markov model using a simulated cohort of individuals from age 0 to 9 years was developed. Parameters regarding the reported annual incidence of dengue, proportion of inapparent cases, and expansion factors for outpatient and hospitalized cases were considered as transition probabilities. The proportion of immune population at 9 years of age was taken as a proxy of the expected seroprevalence, considering this age as targeted for vaccination. The model was used to evaluate the expected seroprevalence in Misiones and Salta provinces and in Buenos Aires city, three settings showing different climatic favorability for dengue.

RESULTS

The estimates of the seroprevalence for the group of 9-year-old children for Misiones was 79% (95%CI:46-100%), and for Salta 22% (95%CI:14-30%), both located in northeastern and northwestern Argentina, respectively. Buenos Aires city, from central Argentina, showed a likely seroprevalence of 7% (95%CI: 3-11%). According to the deterministic sensitivity analyses, the parameter showing the highest influence on these results was the probability of inapparent cases.

CONCLUSIONS

This model allowed the estimation of dengue seroprevalence in settings where this information is not available. Particularly for Misiones, the expected seroprevalence was higher than 70% in a wide range of scenarios, thus in this province a vaccination strategy directed to seropositive children of >9 years should be analyzed, including further considerations as safety, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact.

Application of Artificial Neural Networks for Dengue Fever Outbreak Predictions in the Northwest Coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico

Modelling dengue fever in endemic areas is important to mitigate and improve vector-borne disease control to reduce outbreaks. This study applied artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict dengue fever outbreak occurrences in San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA), and in several coastal municipalities of the state of Yucatan, Mexico, based on specific thresholds. The models were trained with 19 years of dengue fever data for Puerto Rico and six years for Mexico. Environmental and demographic data included in the predictive models were sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, air temperature (i.e., minimum, maximum, and average), humidity, previous dengue cases, and population size. Two models were applied for each study area. One predicted dengue incidence rates based on population at risk (i.e., numbers of people younger than 24 years), and the other on the size of the vulnerable population (i.e., number of people younger than five years and older than 65 years). The predictive power was above 70% for all four model runs. The ANNs were able to successfully model dengue fever outbreak occurrences in both study areas. The variables with the most influence on predicting dengue fever outbreak occurrences for San Juan, Puerto Rico, included population size, previous dengue cases, maximum air temperature, and date. In Yucatan, Mexico, the most important variables were population size, previous dengue cases, minimum air temperature, and date. These models have predictive skills and should help dengue fever mitigation and management to aid specific population segments in the Caribbean region and around the Gulf of Mexico.

Patterns of Urban Housing Shape Dengue Distribution in Singapore at Neighborhood and Country Scales

Dengue is the most important human arboviral disease in Singapore. We classified residential areas into low-rise and high-rise housing and investigated the influence of urban drainage on the distribution of dengue incidence and outdoor breeding at neighborhood and country scales. In Geylang area (August 2014 to August 2015), dengue incidence was higher in a subarea of low-rise housing compared to high-rise one, averaging 26.7 (standard error, SE = 4.83) versus 2.43 (SE = 0.67) per 1,000 people. Outdoor breeding drains of Aedes aegypti have clustered in the low-rise housing subarea. The pupal density per population was higher in the low-rise blocks versus high-rise ones, 246 (SE = 69.08) and 35.4 (SE = 25.49) per 1,000 people, respectively. The density of urban drainage network in the low-rise blocks is double that in the high-rise ones, averaging 0.05 (SE = 0.0032) versus 0.025 (SE = 0.00245) per meter. Further, a holistic analysis at a country-scale has confirmed the role of urban hydrology in shaping dengue distribution in Singapore. Dengue incidence (2013-2015) is proportional to the fractions of the area (or population) of low-rise housing. The drainage density in low-rise housing is 4 times that corresponding estimate in high-rise areas, 2.59 and 0.68 per meter, respectively. Public housing in agglomerations of high-rise buildings could have a positive impact on dengue if this urban planning comes at the expense of low-rise housing. City planners in endemic regions should consider the density of drainage networks for both the prevention of flooding and the breeding of mosquitoes.

The reintroduction of DENV-2 in 2011 in Panama and subsequent outbreak characteristic

The circulation of the South-east Asian/American (AS/AM) dengue 2 virus (DENV-2) genotype in the Americas has been associated with a high rate of severe disease. From 1993, the year DENV was reintroduced in Panama, until 2011 there were 29 dengue-associated deaths, 17 of which occurred in 2011, the most severe outbreak with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 44% (17 deaths out of 38 severe dengue cases). During this outbreak DENV-2 was reintroduced into the country, whereas over the prior five years DENV-1 and -3 were predominant. Herein, we describe the 2011 Panama outbreak and genetically characterize the Panamanian DENV-2 strains, which were associated with severe dengue disease in Panama. Our results suggest that the DENV-2 isolates from this outbreak belonged to the AS/AM genotype sub-clade 2BI and were genetically close to viruses described in the outbreaks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico from 2006-2011. Sub-clade 2BI has previously been associated with severe disease in Nicaragua during outbreaks from 2005-2007.

Resource Use and Costs of Dengue: Analysis of Data from Phase III Efficacy Studies of a Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine

A tetravalent dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV) has recently been approved in 12 countries in southeast Asia and Latin America for individuals aged 9–45 years or 9–60 years (age indication approvals vary by country) living in endemic areas. Data on utilization of medical and nonmedical resources as well as time lost from school and work were collected during the active phase of two phase III efficacy studies performed in 10 countries in the Asia-Pacific region and Latin America (NCT01373281; NCT01374516). We compared dengue-related resource utilization and costs among vaccinated and nonvaccinated participants. Country-specific unit costs were derived from available literature. There were 901 virologically confirmed dengue episodes among participants aged ≥ 9 years (N = 25,826): corresponding to 373 episodes in the CYD-TDV group (N = 17,230) and 528 episodes in the control group (N = 8,596). Fewer episodes in the CYD-TDV group resulted in hospitalization than in the control group (7.0% versus 13.3%; P = 0.002), but both had a similar average length of stay of 4 days. Overall, a two-thirds reduction in resource consumption and missed school/work days was observed in the CYD-TDV group relative to the control group. The estimated direct and indirect cost (2014 I$) associated with dengue episodes per participant in the CYD-TDV group was 73% lower than in the control group (I$6.72 versus I$25.08); representing a saving of I$I8.36 (95% confidence interval [CI]:17.05–19.78) per participant with vaccination. This is the first study providing information on dengue costs among vaccinated individuals and direct confirmation that vaccination has the potential to reduce dengue illness costs.

Household costs of hospitalized dengue illness in semi-rural Thailand

Background

Dengue-related illness is a leading cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries, imposing a major economic burden on households, health systems, and governments. This study aims to assess the economic impact of hospitalized dengue cases on households in Chachoengsao province in eastern Thailand.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue patients at three public hospitals. We examined all hospitalized dengue cases regardless of disease severity. Patients or their legal guardians were interviewed using a standard questionnaire to determine household-level medical and non-medical expenditures and income losses during the illness episode.

Results

Between March and September 2015, we recruited a total of 224 hospitalized patients (<5 years, 4%; 5–14 years, 20%, 15–24 years, 36%, 25–34 years, 15%; 35–44 years, 10%; 45+ years, 12%), who were clinically diagnosed with dengue. The total cost of a hospitalized dengue case was higher for adult patients than pediatric patients, and was US$153.6 and US$166.3 for pediatric DF and DHF patients, respectively, and US$171.2 and US$226.1 for adult DF and DHF patients, respectively. The financial burden on households increased with the severity of dengue illness.

Conclusions

Although 74% of the households reported that the patient received free medical care, hospitalized dengue illness cost approximately 19–23% of the monthly household income. These results indicated that dengue imposed a substantial financial burden on households in Thailand where a great majority of the population was covered by the Universal Coverage Scheme for health care.

Dengue, an arbovirus infection with an explosive epidemic potential, is a major public health problem in Thailand and other developing countries in subtropical and tropical regions. Dengue illness often leads to school and work absenteeism, medical and non-medical expenditures, and foregone income. A growing literature shows that these illness related costs pose a severe economic burden on households, health care systems, and governments. We conducted a prospective cost-of-illness study to assess the costs and impact of hospitalized pediatric and adult dengue cases on households in a highly endemic area in eastern Thailand. We found that the total cost of a hospitalized dengue case accounted for about 19–23% the monthly household income. Although direct medical costs were covered for a majority of hospitalized dengue patients by the Thai Universal Coverage Scheme for health care, direct non-medical and indirect costs were of great economic significance to households. These hidden costs of dengue illness are likely to increase given the shift in the mean age of dengue cases in Thailand and other endemic countries in the region. High household costs of dengue illness justify efforts to improve the coverage of preventive and control measures against dengue in endemic areas.

Direct Medical Costs of Dengue Fever in Vietnam: A Retrospective Study in a Tertiary Hospital

BACKGROUND

In Vietnam, dengue fever is a major health concern, yet comprehensive information on its economic costs is lacking. The present study investigated treatment costs associated with dengue fever from the perspective of health care provision.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted between January 2013 and December 2015 in Cu Chi General Hospital. The following dengue-related treatment costs were calculated: hospitalisation, diagnosis, specialised services, drug usage and medical supplies. Average cost per case and treatment cost across different age was calculated.

RESULTS

In the study period, 1672 patients with dengue fever were hospitalised. The average age was 24.98 (SD = 14.10) years, and 47.5% were males (795 patients). Across age groups, the average cost per episode was USD 48.10 (SD = 3.22). The highest costs (USD 56.61, SD = 48.84) were incurred in the adult age group (> 15 years), and the lowest costs (USD 30.10, SD = 17.27) were incurred in the paediatric age group (< 15 years).

CONCLUSION

The direct medical costs of dengue-related hospitalisation place a severe economic burden on patients and their families. The probable economic value of dengue management in Vietnam is significant.

An economic evaluation of vector control in the age of a dengue vaccine

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is a rapidly emerging vector-borne Neglected Tropical Disease, with a 30-fold increase in the number of cases reported since 1960. The economic cost of the illness is measured in the billions of dollars annually. Environmental change and unplanned urbanization are conspiring to raise the health and economic cost even further beyond the reach of health systems and households. The health-sector response has depended in large part on control of the Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus (mosquito) vectors. The cost-effectiveness of the first-ever dengue vaccine remains to be evaluated in the field. In this paper, we examine how it might affect the cost-effectiveness of sustained vector control.

METHODS

We employ a dynamic Markov model of the effects of vector control on dengue in both vectors and humans over a 15-year period, in six countries: Brazil, Columbia, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand. We evaluate the cost (direct medical costs and control programme costs) and cost-effectiveness of sustained vector control, outbreak response and/or medical case management, in the presence of a (hypothetical) highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy using a (non-hypothetical) medium-efficacy vaccine.

RESULTS

Sustained vector control using existing technologies would cost little more than outbreak response, given the associated costs of medical case management. If sustained use of existing or upcoming technologies (of similar price) reduce vector populations by 70-90%, the cost per disability-adjusted life year averted is 2013 US$ 679-1331 (best estimates) relative to no intervention. Sustained vector control could be highly cost-effective even with less effective technologies (50-70% reduction in vector populations) and in the presence of a highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy using a medium-efficacy vaccine.

DISCUSSION

Economic evaluation of the first-ever dengue vaccine is ongoing. However, even under very optimistic assumptions about a highly targeted and low cost immunization strategy, our results suggest that sustained vector control will continue to play an important role in mitigating the impact of environmental change and urbanization on human health. If additional benefits for the control of other Aedes borne diseases, such as Chikungunya, yellow fever and Zika fever are taken into account, the investment case is even stronger. High-burden endemic countries should proceed to map populations to be covered by sustained vector control.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dengue Vaccination Programs in Brazil

The first approved dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV, a chimeric, live-attenuated, tetravalent dengue virus vaccine, was recently licensed in 13 countries, including Brazil. In light of recent vaccine approval, we modeled the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccination policies mathematically based on data from recent vaccine efficacy trials that indicated that vaccine efficacy was lower in seronegative individuals than in seropositive individuals. In our analysis, we investigated several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination, with various vaccine coverage levels and those with and without large catch-up campaigns. As it is unclear whether the vaccine protects against infection or just against disease, our model incorporated both direct and indirect effects of vaccination. We found that in the presence of vaccine-induced indirect protection, the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination decreased with increasing vaccine coverage levels because the marginal returns of herd immunity decreases with vaccine coverage. All routine dengue vaccination programs that we considered were cost-effective, reducing dengue incidence significantly. Specifically, a routine dengue vaccination of 9-year-olds would be cost-effective when the cost of vaccination per individual is less than $262. Furthermore, the combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns resulted in a greater reduction of dengue burden (by up to 93%) than routine vaccination alone, making it a cost-effective intervention as long as the cost per course of vaccination is $255 or less. Our results show that dengue vaccination would be cost-effective in Brazil even with a relatively low vaccine efficacy in seronegative individuals.

Modelling dengue fever risk in the State of Yucatan, Mexico using regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature

Accurately predicting vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever, is essential for communities worldwide. Changes in environmental parameters such as precipitation, air temperature, and humidity are known to influence dengue fever dynamics. Furthermore, previous studies have shown how oceanographic variables, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature from the Pacific Ocean, influences dengue fever in the Americas. However, literature is lacking on the use of regional-scale satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) to assess its relationship with dengue fever in coastal areas. Data on confirmed dengue cases, demographics, precipitation, and air temperature were collected. Incidence of weekly dengue cases was examined. Stepwise multiple regression analyses (AIC model selection) were used to assess which environmental variables best explained increased dengue incidence rates. SST, minimum air temperature, precipitation, and humidity substantially explained 42% of the observed variation (r²=0.42). Infectious diseases are characterized by the influence of past cases on current cases and results show that previous dengue cases alone explained 89% of the variation. Ordinary least-squares analyses showed a positive trend of 0.20±0.03°C in SST from 2006 to 2015. An important element of this study is to help develop strategic recommendations for public health officials in Mexico by providing a simple early warning capability for dengue incidence.

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A State-of-the-Art Review Focused in Pulmonary Involvement

Dengue fever is an arboviral disease transmitted to humans through the bites of infected female Aedes mosquitoes. Dengue virus is a member of the Flaviviridae family, and human infection can be caused by any of the four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1–4). The infection has become recognized as the most important and prevalent arboviral disease in humans, endemic in almost 100 countries worldwide. Nearly 3 billion people live in areas with transmission risk. Autochthonous transmission of the virus in previously disease-free areas, increased incidence in endemic areas, and epidemic resurgence in controlled regions could increase the risk of contracting more severe forms of the disease, such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF)/dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Symptomatic dengue virus infection can present with a wide range of clinical manifestations, from mild fever to life-threatening DSS. Thoracic complications may manifest as pleural effusion, pneumonitis, non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema, and hemorrhage/hemoptysis. No vaccine is currently available and no specific treatment for dengue fever exists, but prevention and prompt management of complications in patients with DHF can help reduce mortality. This review describes the main clinical, pathological, and imaging findings of thoracic involvement in DHF.

Complete Genomic Sequence of Dengue virus 1, Isolated from Plasma Collected from a Haitian Child in 2014

An outbreak of dengue fever followed a chikungunya fever outbreak in Haiti in 2014. We detected Dengue virus 1 (DENV-1) in plasma samples collected between May 2014 and February 2015. A representative isolate was fully sequenced, and phylogenetic analyses indicate that it groups within the genotype V South American and Caribbean DENV-1 clades.

Household costs for personal protection against mosquitoes: secondary outcomes from a randomised controlled trial of dengue prevention in Guerrero state, Mexico

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a serious public health issue that affects households in endemic areas in terms of health and also economically, imposing costs for prevention and treatment of cases. The Camino Verde cluster-randomised controlled trial in Mexico and Nicaragua assessed the impact of evidence-based community engagement in dengue prevention. The Mexican arm of the trial was conducted in 90 randomly selected communities in three coastal regions of Guerrero State. This study reports an analysis of a secondary outcome of the trial: household use of and expenditure on anti-mosquito products. We examined whether the education and mobilisation activities of the trial motivated people to spend less on anti-mosquito products.

METHODS

We carried out a household questionnaire survey in the trial communities in 2010 (12,312 households) and 2012 (5349 households in intervention clusters, 5142 households in control clusters), including questions about socio-economic status, self-reported dengue illness, and purchase of and expenditure on insecticide anti-mosquito products in the previous month. We examined expenditures on anti-mosquito products at baseline in relation to social vulnerability and we compared use of and expenditures on these products between intervention and control clusters in 2012.

RESULTS

In 2010, 44.2% of 12,312 households reported using anti-mosquito products, with a mean expenditure of USD4.61 per month among those who used them. Socially vulnerable households spent less on the products. In 2012, after the intervention, the proportion of households who purchased anti-mosquito products in the last month was significantly lower in intervention clusters (47.8%; 2503/5293) than in control clusters (53.3%; 2707/5079) (difference - 0.05, 95% CIca -0.100 to -0.010). The mean expenditure on the products, among those households who bought them, was USD6.43; 30.4% in the intervention clusters and 36.7% in the control clusters spent more than this (difference - 0.06, 95% CIca -0.12 to -0.01). These expenditures on anti-mosquito products represent 3.3% and 3.8% respectively of monthly household income for the poorest 10% of the population in 2012.

CONCLUSIONS

The Camino Verde community mobilisation intervention, as well as being effective in reducing dengue infections, was effective in reducing household use of and expenditure on insecticide anti-mosquito products.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

( ISRCTN27581154 ).

Household costs of dengue illness: secondary outcomes from a randomised controlled trial of dengue prevention in Guerrero state, Mexico

Background

Dengue is a serious public health problem with an important economic impact. This study used data from a cluster randomised controlled trial of community mobilisation for dengue prevention to estimate the household costs of treatment of dengue illness. It examined the economic impact of the trial intervention in the three coastal regions of Mexico’s Guerrero State.

Methods

The 2010 baseline survey covered households in a random sample of 90 clusters in the coastal regions; the clusters were randomly allocated to intervention or control and re-surveyed in 2012. The surveys asked about dengue cases in the last 12 months, expenditures on their treatment, and work or school days lost by patients and care givers. We did not assign monetary value to days lost, since a lost day to a person of low earning power is of equal or higher value to that person than to one who earns more.

Results

The 12,312 households in 2010 reported 1020 dengue cases in the last 12 months (1.9% of the sample population). Most (78%) were ambulatory cases, with a mean cost of USD 51 and 10.8 work/school days, rising to USD 96 and 11.4 work/school days if treated by a private physician. Hospitalised cases cost USD 28–94 in government institutions and USD 392 in private hospitals (excluding additional inpatient charges), as well as 9.6–17.3 work/school days. Dengue cases cost households an estimated 412,825 work/school days throughout the three coastal regions. In the follow up survey, 6.1% (326/5349) of households in intervention clusters and 7.9% (405/5139) in control clusters reported at least one dengue case. The mean of days lost per case was similar in intervention and control clusters, but the number of days lost from dengue and all elements of costs for dengue cases per 1000 population were lower in intervention clusters. If the total population of the three coastal regions had received the intervention, some 149,401 work or school days lost per year could have been prevented.

Conclusion

The economic effect of dengue on households, including lost work days, is substantial. The Camino Verde trial intervention reduced household costs for treatment of dengue cases.

Trial registration

The trial was registered as ISRCTN:27,581,154.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12889-017-4304-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Emerging infectious diseases: A proactive approach

Infectious diseases are now emerging or reemerging almost every year. This trend will continue because a number of factors, including the increased global population, aging, travel, urbanization, and climate change, favor the emergence, evolution, and spread of new pathogens. The approach used so far for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) does not work from the technical point of view, and it is not sustainable. However, the advent of platform technologies offers vaccine manufacturers an opportunity to develop new vaccines faster and to reduce the investment to build manufacturing facilities, in addition to allowing for the possible streamlining of regulatory processes. The new technologies also make possible the rapid development of human monoclonal antibodies that could become a potent immediate response to an emergency. So far, several proposals to approach EIDs have been made independently by scientists, the private sector, national governments, and international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). While each of them has merit, there is a need for a global governance that is capable of taking a strong leadership role and making it attractive to all partners to come to the same table and to coordinate the global approach.

Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Yucatán, Mexico using a dynamic dengue transmission model

Background

The incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9^th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential.

Methods

We developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico.

Conclusions

Our study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.

The cross-cutting contribution of the end of neglected tropical diseases to the sustainable development goals

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for an integrated response, the kind that has defined Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) efforts in the past decade.NTD interventions have the greatest relevance for SDG3, the health goal, where the focus on equity, and its commitment to reaching people in need of health services, wherever they may live and whatever their circumstances, is fundamentally aligned with the target of Universal Health Coverage. NTD interventions, however, also affect and are affected by many of the other development areas covered under the 2030 Agenda. Strategies such as mass drug administration or the programmatic integration of NTD and WASH activities (SDG6) are driven by effective global partnerships (SDG17). Intervention against the NTDs can also have an impact on poverty (SDG1) and hunger (SDG2), can improve education (SDG4), work and economic growth (SDG8), thereby reducing inequalities (SDG10). The community-led distribution of donated medicines to more than 1 billion people reinforces women's empowerment (SDG5), logistics infrastructure (SDG9) and non-discrimination against disability (SDG16). Interventions to curb mosquito-borne NTDs contribute to the goals of urban sustainability (SDG11) and resilience to climate change (SDG13), while the safe use of insecticides supports the goal of sustainable ecosystems (SDG15). Although indirectly, interventions to control water- and animal-related NTDs can facilitate the goals of small-scale fishing (SDG14) and sustainable hydroelectricity and biofuels (SDG7).NTDs proliferate in less developed areas in countries across the income spectrum, areas where large numbers of people have little or no access to adequate health care, clean water, sanitation, housing, education, transport and information. This scoping review assesses how in this context, ending the epidemic of the NTDs can impact and improve our prospects of attaining the SDGs.

Disease Burden of Dengue in the Philippines: Adjusting for Underreporting by Comparing Active and Passive Dengue Surveillance in Punta Princesa, Cebu City

AbstractDengue virus (DENV) is a serious threat to public health. Having reliable estimates of the burden of dengue is important to inform policy and research, but surveillance systems are not designed to capture all symptomatic DENV infections. We derived the rate of reporting of dengue by comparing active surveillance of symptomatic DENV infections in a prospective community-based seroepidemiological cohort study (N = 1008) of acute febrile illness in Punta Princesa, Cebu City, Philippines, with passive surveillance data from the Cebu City Health Department. Febrile episodes detected in a weekly follow-up of participants were tested for serotype-specific DENV by hemi-nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (nested RT-PCR) and acute/convalescent blood samples tested by dengue IgM/IgG enzyme immunoassay. We estimated the burden of dengue in the Philippines in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulations to address uncertainty. The results showed a 21% cumulative reporting rate of symptomatic DENV infections, equivalent to an expansion factor of 4.7 (95% certainty level [CL]: 2.2-15.1). Based on surveillance data in the Philippines for 2010-2014, we estimated 794,255 annual dengue episodes (95% CL: 463,000-2,076,000) and a disease burden of 535 (95% CL: 380-994) DALYs per million population using age weights and time discounting and 997 (95% CL: 681-1,871) DALYs per million population without age and time adjustments. Dengue imposes a substantial burden in the Philippines; almost 10 times higher than estimated for rabies, about twice the burden of intestinal fluke infections, and about 10% of the burden of tuberculosis. Our estimates should inform policy makers and raise awareness among the public.

Future risk of dengue fever to workforce and industry through global supply chain

The primary vector of the dengue fever virus, the Aedes aegypti mosquito, is distributed across the tropical and sub-tropical latitudes; however, the area at risk of infection has been expanding steadily. This study aimed to identify the industries most vulnerable to the effects of dengue fever by 2030. The assessment was done by considering the international supply chain, with aspects such as the labor intensity, and the relevant geographical and socioeconomic aspects being taken into account. In addition, multi-regional input-output tables were employed to analyze the ripple effects of productivity losses resulting from workers contracting the disease. The results indicate that more than 10% of the workers involved in the supply chain of all the major industries in the United States (USA), China, Japan, and Germany could be considered at risk of contracting dengue fever by 2030. Moreover, the risk was even higher in India and Brazil, namely, more than 70%. The effect of widespread dengue fever infection could influence industrial activities severely, not only in the regions most at risk (India and Brazil) but also in the other regions (USA, Japan, and Germany). Labor-intensive industries, such as agriculture, fisheries, and the distribution sector are particularly at risk and will have to consider appropriate contingency measures. It is recommended that the downstream side of the supply chain, the industries in the USA, Japan, and Germany, supports the introduction of worker's health management system against the infectious disease into their business partners. This study employed limited data and only estimated the possible effects of the disease by 2030. Further comprehensive analysis is required with more data modeled for the future to verify and enhance the reliability of the present results.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Dengue Disease in Latin America and in the Caribbean: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Dengue, an important mosquito-borne virus transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti, is a major public health issue in Latin America and the Caribbean. National epidemiological surveillance systems, usually based on passive detection of symptomatic cases, while underestimating the true burden of dengue disease, can provide valuable insight into disease trends and excess reporting and potential outbreaks. We carried out a systematic review of the literature to characterize the recent epidemiology of dengue disease in Latin America and the English-speaking and Hispanic Caribbean Islands. We identified 530 articles, 60 of which met criteria for inclusion. In general, dengue seropositivity across the region was high and increased with age. All four virus serotypes were reported to circulate in the region. These observations varied considerably between and within countries and over time, potentially due to climatic factors (temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity) and their effect on mosquito densities and differences in socioeconomic factors. This review provides important insight into the major epidemiological characteristics of dengue in distinct regions of Latin America and the Caribbean, allowing gaps in current knowledge and future research needs to be identified.

Neutralizing Antibody Response and Efficacy of Novel Recombinant Tetravalent Dengue DNA Vaccine Comprising Envelope Domain III in Mice

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a global arboviral threat to humans; causing 390 million infections per year. The availability of safe and effective tetravalent dengue vaccine is a global requirement to prevent epidemics, morbidity, and mortality associated with it.

METHODS

Five experimental groups (6 mice per group) each of 5-week-old BALB/c mice were immunized with vaccine and placebo (empty plasmid) (100 µg, i.m.) on days 0, 14 and 28. Among these, four groups (one group per serotype) of each were subsequently challenged 3 weeks after the last boost with dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1-4 (100 LD₅₀, 20 µl intracerebrally) to determine vaccine efficacy. The fifth group of each was used as a control. The PBS immunized group was used as mock control. Serum samples were collected before and after subsequent immunizations. EDIII fusion protein expression was determined by Western blot. Total protein concentration was measured by Bradford assay. Neutralizing antibodies were assessed by TCID₅₀-CPE inhibition assay. Statistical analysis was performed using Stata/IC 10.1 software for Windows. One-way repeated measures ANOVA and Mann-Whitney test were used for neutralizing antibody analysis and vaccine efficacy, respectively.

RESULTS

The recombinant EDIII fusion protein was expressed adequately in transfected 293T cells. Total protein concentration was almost 3 times more than the control. Vaccine candidate induced neutralizing antibodies against all four DENV serotypes with a notable increase after subsequent boosters. Vaccine efficacy was 83.3% (DENV-1, -3, -4) and 50% (DENV-2).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that vaccine is immunogenic and protective; however, further studies are required to improve the immunogenicity particularly against DENV-2.

Value of routine dengue diagnosis in endemic countries

Dengue is one of the most common arthropod-borne viral diseases in humans and it is a leading cause of illness and death in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. It is thought to account for 400 million cases annually among approximately 3.97 billion people at risk of infection in 128 endemic countries. Despite the global prevalence of the disease, the availability of a vaccine is limited in most countries in the endemic areas. Most endemic countries in South America, South East Asia and Africa serve as attractive touristic sites for people from non-endemic countries who become infected and export the virus to dengue-free regions. Dengue fever typically resembles malaria and in endemic countries most cases of dengue are treated as presumptive malaria. Consequently, routine dengue diagnosis among persons with fever will offer early treatment and reduce the burden of the disease. Also, routine testing among travellers from endemic countries will reduce importation and prevent the geographical expansion of dengue. In this essay, we seek to highlight the usefulness of routine dengue testing in endemic countries.

Changing paradigms in Aedes control: considering the spatial heterogeneity of dengue transmission

Current dengue vector control strategies, focusing on reactive implementation of insecticide-based interventions in response to clinically apparent disease manifestations, tend to be inefficient, short-lived, and unsustainable within the worldwide epidemiological scenario of virus epidemic recrudescence. As a result of a series of expert meetings and deliberations, a paradigm shift is occurring and a new strategy, using risk stratification at the city level in order to concentrate proactive, sustained efforts in areas at high risk for transmission, has emerged. In this article, the authors 1) outline this targeted, proactive intervention strategy, within the context of dengue epidemiology, the dynamics of its transmission, and current Aedes control strategies, and 2) provide support from published literature for the need to empirically test its impact on dengue transmission as well as on the size of disease outbreaks. As chikungunya and Zika viruses continue to expand their range, the need for a science-based, proactive approach for control of urban Aedes spp. mosquitoes will become a central focus of integrated disease management planning.

Disease and economic burdens of dengue

The burden of dengue is large and growing. More than half of the global population lives in areas with risk of dengue transmission. Uncertainty in burden estimates, however, challenges policy makers' ability to set priorities, allocate resources, and plan for interventions. In this report, the first in a Series on dengue, we explore the estimations of disease and economic burdens of dengue, and the major estimation challenges, limitations, and sources of uncertainty. We also reflect on opportunities to remedy these deficiencies. Point estimates of apparent dengue infections vary widely, although the confidence intervals of these estimates overlap. Cost estimates include different items, are mostly based on a single year of data, use different monetary references, are calculated from different perspectives, and are difficult to compare. Comprehensive estimates that decompose the cost by different stakeholders (as proposed in our framework), that consider the cost of epidemic years, and that account for productivity and tourism losses, are scarce. On the basis of these estimates, we propose the most comprehensive framework for estimating the economic burden of dengue in any region, differentiated by four very different domains of cost items and by three potential stakeholders who bear the costs. This framework can inform future estimations of the economic burden of dengue and generate demand for additional routine administrative data collection, or for systematic incorporation of additional questions in nationally representative surveys in dengue-endemic countries. Furthermore, scholars could use the framework to guide scenario simulations that consider ranges of possible values for cost items for which data are not yet available. Results would be valuable to policy makers and would also raise awareness among communities, potentially improving dengue control efforts.

Serological evidence of ongoing transmission of dengue virus in permanent residents of Key West, Florida

INTRODUCTION

Dengue fever is the most important mosquito-borne viral disease in the world, with 40% of the global population at risk of infection. Dengue virus is responsible for infections in over 100 countries, including the Americas and Caribbean Basin; however, it has been largely eradicated from the United States through the implementation of effective vector control programs. However, between 2009 and 2010, 27 permanent residents of Key West, Florida, were reported to have locally acquired infections, marking the first autochthonous cases detected in Florida since 1934. Despite this recent and unusual transmission, and the potential risk of serious illness associated with sequential infections, no active surveillance had been conducted since.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A serosurvey of permanent residents of Key West, Florida, was conducted in March of 2012. After informed consent, enrolled participants (n=173) were given a dengue virus rapid diagnostic test and completed a corresponding questionnaire.

RESULTS

The presence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies was indicated in 12 participants (6.9%), all of whom reported travel to endemic countries within the past 2 years. Surprisingly, six participants (3.5%) without any recent travel outside the state of Florida gave positive results for IgM antibodies. The presence of birdbaths and bromeliads on the property and sleeping outdoors emerged as significant factors related to previous exposure, whereas home air conditioning without the use of open windows and the use of mosquito repellent were protective.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest local transmission occurred in Key West in early 2012, indicating that transmission may not have subsided in 2010.

The emergence of arthropod-borne viral diseases: A global prospective on dengue, chikungunya and zika fevers

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) present a substantial threat to human and animal health worldwide. Arboviruses can cause a variety of clinical presentations that range from mild to life threatening symptoms. Many arboviruses are present in nature through two distinct cycles, the urban and sylvatic cycle that are maintained in complex biological cycles. In this review we briefly discuss the factors driving the emergence of arboviruses, such as the anthropogenic aspects of unrestrained human population growth, economic expansion and globalization. Also the important aspects of viruses and vectors in the occurrence of arboviruses epidemics. The focus of this review will be on dengue, zika and chikungunya viruses, particularly because these viruses are currently causing a negative impact on public health and economic damage around the world.

Seroprevalence of dengue infection in the municipalities of Armenia, Calarcá, La Tebaida and Montenegro in Quindío, 2014

INTRODUCTION

Dengue is a serious public health problem in Colombia; it is prevalent in 90% of the municipalities in Quindío. Studies on its seroprevalence are required to address public health interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To establish the seroprevalence of dengue infection in neighborhoods with high incidence in the municipalities of Armenia, Calarcá, La Tebaida and Montenegro, Quindío, in 2014.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a probabilistic, stratified, two-stage prevalence study. We interviewed 658 residents in the urban area of the selected municipalities. After they signed the informed consent, we took a blood sample to determine dengue IgG and IgM antibodies.

RESULTS

Seroprevalence of IgG in Quindío was 89,4%; in Armenia it was 88,7%, in Calarcá, 81,5%, in Montenegro, 91,8% and in La Tebaida 97,8%. IgM was 14, 2% in Quindío; in Armenia it was 11,5%, in Calarcá, 13,0%, in Montenegro, 13,1% and in La Tebaida, 28,9%.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a high prevalence of both IgG and IgM in the four municipalities. We had positive results for IgM in all age groups, which suggests recent infection. We also found simultaneous seropositivity for IgG and IgM (12.9%), which may indicate infection by another serotype or presence of infection in the past three months. A multisectoral approach is necessary for dengue control in Quindío.

Assessment of synthetic floral-based attractants and sugar baits to capture male and female Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

Background

The viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti, including dengue and Zika viruses, are rapidly expanding in geographic range and as a threat to public health. In response, control programs are increasingly turning to the use of sterile insect techniques resulting in a need to trap male Ae. aegypti to monitor the efficacy of the intervention. However, there is a lack of effective and cheap methods for trapping males. Thus, we attempted to exploit the physiological need to obtain energy from sugar feeding in order to passively capture male and female Ae. aegypti (nulliparous and gravid) in free-flight attraction assays. Candidate lures included previously identified floral-based (phenylacetaldehyde, linalool oxide, phenylethyl alcohol, and acetophenone) attractants and an attractive toxic sugar bait-based (ATSB) solution of guava and mango nectars. A free-flight attraction assay assessed the number of mosquitoes attracted to each candidate lure displayed individually. Then, a choice test was performed between the best-performing lure and a water control displayed in Gravid Aedes Traps (GAT).

Results

Results from the attraction assays indicated that the ATSB solution of guava and mango nectars was the most promising lure candidate for males; unlike the floral-based attractants tested, it performed significantly better than the water control. Nulliparous and gravid females demonstrated no preference among the lures and water controls indicating a lack of attraction to floral-based attractants and sugar baits in a larger setting. Although the guava-mango ATSB lure was moderately attractive to males when presented directly (i.e. no need to enter a trap or other confinement), it failed to attract significantly more male, nulliparous female, or gravid female Ae. aegypti than water controls when presented inside a Gravid Aedes Trap.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the use of volatile floral-based attractants and sugar mixtures that have been identified in the literature is not an effective lure by which to kill Ae. aegypti at ATSB stations nor capture them in the GAT. Future trapping efforts would likely be more successful if focused on more promising methods for capturing male and female Ae. aegypti.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1946-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Innovative dengue vector control interventions in Latin America: what do they cost?

Background

Five studies were conducted in Fortaleza (Brazil), Girardot (Colombia), Machala (Ecuador), Acapulco (Mexico), and Salto (Uruguay) to assess dengue vector control interventions tailored to the context. The studies involved the community explicitly in the implementation, and focused on the most productive breeding places for Aedes aegypti. This article reports the cost analysis of these interventions.

Methods

We conducted the costing from the perspective of the vector control program. We collected data on quantities and unit costs of the resources used to deliver the interventions. Comparable information was requested for the routine activities. Cost items were classified, analyzed descriptively, and aggregated to calculate total costs, costs per house reached, and incremental costs.

Results

Cost per house of the interventions were $18.89 (Fortaleza), $21.86 (Girardot), $30.61 (Machala), $39.47 (Acapulco), and $6.98 (Salto). Intervention components that focused mainly on changes to the established vector control programs seem affordable; cost savings were identified in Salto (−21%) and the clean patio component in Machala (−12%). An incremental cost of 10% was estimated in Fortaleza. On the other hand, there were also completely new components that would require sizeable financial efforts (installing insecticide-treated nets in Girardot and Acapulco costs $16.97 and $24.96 per house, respectively).

Conclusions

The interventions are promising, seem affordable and may improve the cost profile of the established vector control programs. The costs of the new components could be considerable, and should be assessed in relation to the benefits in reduced dengue burden.

Dengue in Latin America: Systematic Review of Molecular Epidemiological Trends

Dengue, the predominant arthropod-borne viral disease affecting humans, is caused by one of four distinct serotypes (DENV-1, -2, -3 or -4). A literature analysis and review was undertaken to describe the molecular epidemiological trends in dengue disease and the knowledge generated in specific molecular topics in Latin America, including the Caribbean islands, from 2000 to 2013 in the context of regional trends in order to identify gaps in molecular epidemiological knowledge and future research needs. Searches of literature published between 1 January 2000 and 30 November 2013 were conducted using specific search strategies for each electronic database that was reviewed. A total of 396 relevant citations were identified, 57 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. All four dengue virus serotypes were present and co-circulated in many countries over the review period (with the predominance of individual serotypes varying by country and year). The number of countries in which more than one serotype circulated steadily increased during the period under review. Molecular epidemiology data were found for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, the Caribbean region, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico and Central America, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela. Distinct lineages with different dynamics were found in each country, with co-existence, extinction and replacement of lineages occurring over the review period. Despite some gaps in the literature limiting the possibility for comparison, our review has described the molecular epidemiological trends of dengue infection. However, several gaps in molecular epidemiological information across Latin America and the Caribbean were identified that provide avenues for future research; in particular, sequence determination of the dengue virus genome is important for more precise phylogenetic classification and correlation with clinical outcome and disease severity.

The wide distribution of the mosquito vector and the co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes has led to increases in the incidence of dengue in the Americas, where it is a major public health concern. Identifying molecular epidemiological trends may help to identify the reasons for the re-emergence of dengue across Latin America and the Caribbean, and, in turn, enable disease control and management. We conducted this review using well defined methods to search for and identify relevant research according to predetermined inclusion criteria. The objective was to obtain a clearer understanding of changes occurring within dengue serotypes that have resulted in substantial genetic diversity and the emergence of endemic and epidemic strains in different parts of the region. There remain fundamental gaps in our understanding of the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of dengue and its relation with disease, and it is not possible to correlate accurately spatial or temporal trends in disease epidemiology, disease severity, or the genetic diversity of DENV. It is important to maintain comprehensive epidemiological surveillance throughout the region (including sequencing of viral strains) to detect new DENV lineages and to understand the regional patterns of DENV dissemination.

Mosquito-Disseminated Insecticide for Citywide Vector Control and Its Potential to Block Arbovirus Epidemics: Entomological Observations and Modeling Results from Amazonian Brazil

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne viruses threaten public health worldwide. When the ratio of competent vectors to susceptible humans is low enough, the virus's basic reproductive number (R0) falls below 1.0 (each case generating, on average, <1.0 additional case) and the infection fades out from the population. Conventional mosquito control tactics, however, seldom yield R0 < 1.0. A promising alternative uses mosquitoes to disseminate a potent growth-regulator larvicide, pyriproxyfen (PPF), to aquatic larval habitats; this kills most mosquito juveniles and substantially reduces adult mosquito emergence. We tested mosquito-disseminated PPF in Manacapuru, a 60,000-inhabitant city (~650 ha) in Amazonian Brazil.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We sampled juvenile mosquitoes monthly in 100 dwellings over four periods in February 2014-January 2016: 12 baseline months, 5 mo of citywide PPF dissemination, 3 mo of focal PPF dissemination around Aedes-infested dwellings, and 3 mo after dissemination ended. We caught 19,434 juvenile mosquitoes (66% Aedes albopictus, 28% Ae. aegypti) in 8,271 trap-months. Using generalized linear mixed models, we estimated intervention effects on juvenile catch and adult emergence while adjusting for dwelling-level clustering, unequal sampling effort, and weather-related confounders. Following PPF dissemination, Aedes juvenile catch decreased by 79%-92% and juvenile mortality increased from 2%-7% to 80%-90%. Mean adult Aedes emergence fell from 1,077 per month (range 653-1,635) at baseline to 50.4 per month during PPF dissemination (range 2-117). Female Aedes emergence dropped by 96%-98%, such that the number of females emerging per person decreased to 0.06 females per person-month (range 0.002-0.129). Deterministic models predict, under plausible biological-epidemiological scenarios, that the R0 of typical Aedes-borne viruses would fall from 3-45 at baseline to 0.004-0.06 during PPF dissemination. The main limitations of our study were that it was a before-after trial lacking truly independent replicates and that we did not measure mosquito-borne virus transmission empirically.

CONCLUSIONS

Mosquito-disseminated PPF has potential to block mosquito-borne virus transmission citywide, even under adverse scenarios. Our results signal new avenues for mosquito-borne disease prevention, likely including the effective control of Aedes-borne dengue, Zika, and chikungunya epidemics. Cluster-randomized controlled trials will help determine whether mosquito-disseminated PPF can, as our findings suggest, develop into a major tool for improving global public health.

Public Health Responses to and Challenges for the Control of Dengue Transmission in High-Income Countries: Four Case Studies

Dengue has a negative impact in low- and lower middle-income countries, but also affects upper middle- and high-income countries. Despite the efforts at controlling this disease, it is unclear why dengue remains an issue in affluent countries. A better understanding of dengue epidemiology and its burden, and those of chikungunya virus and Zika virus which share vectors with dengue, is required to prevent the emergence of these diseases in high-income countries in the future. The purpose of this review was to assess the relative burden of dengue in four high-income countries and to appraise the similarities and differences in dengue transmission. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar using specific keywords for articles published up to 05 May 2016. We found that outbreaks rarely occur where only Aedes albopictus is present. The main similarities between countries uncovered by our review are the proximity to dengue-endemic countries, the presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and a lack of citizens' engagement in control of mosquito breeding. We identified important epidemiological and environmental issues including the increase of local transmission despite control efforts, population growth, difficulty locating larval sites, and increased human mobility from neighboring endemic countries. Budget cuts in health and lack of practical vaccines contribute to an increased risk. To be successful, dengue-control programs for high-income countries must consider the epidemiology of dengue in other countries and use this information to minimize virus importation, improve the control of the cryptic larval habitat, and engage the community in reducing vector breeding. Finally, the presence of a communicable disease center is critical for managing and reducing future disease risks.

Incremental cost of implementing residual insecticide treatment with delthametrine on top of intensive routine Aedes aegypti control

OBJECTIVE

Information on the cost of implementing residual insecticide treatment (RIT) for Aedes control is scarce. We evaluated the incremental cost on top of intensive conventional routine activities of the Aedes control programme (ACP) in the city of Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.

METHODS

We conducted the cost analysis study in 2011-2012, from the perspective of the ACP. Data sources were bookkeeping records, activity registers of the Provincial ACP Centre and the accounts of an RIT implementation study in 21 clusters of on average four house blocks comprising 5180 premises.

RESULTS

The annual cost of the routine ACP activities was 19.66 US$ per household. RIT applications in rounds at 4-month intervals covering, on average, 97.2% and using 8.5 g of delthametrine annually per household, cost 3.06 US$ per household per year. Delthametrine comprised 66.5% of this cost; the additional cost for deploying RIT comprised 15.6% of the total ACP routine cost and 27% of the cost related to routine adult stage Aedes control.

CONCLUSIONS

The incremental cost of implementing RIT is high. It should be weighed against the incremental effect on the burden caused by the array of pathogens transmitted by Aedes. The cost could be reduced if the insecticide became cheaper, by limiting the number of yearly applications or by targeting transmission hot spots.

Analysis of genotype diversity and evolution of Dengue virus serotype 2 using complete genomes

BACKGROUND

Dengue is one of the most common arboviral diseases prevalent worldwide and is caused by Dengue viruses (genus Flavivirus, family Flaviviridae). There are four serotypes of Dengue Virus (DENV-1 to DENV-4), each of which is further subdivided into distinct genotypes. DENV-2 is frequently associated with severe dengue infections and epidemics. DENV-2 consists of six genotypes such as Asian/American, Asian I, Asian II, Cosmopolitan, American and sylvatic. Comparative genomic study was carried out to infer population structure of DENV-2 and to analyze the role of evolutionary and spatiotemporal factors in emergence of diversifying lineages.

METHODS

Complete genome sequences of 990 strains of DENV-2 were analyzed using Bayesian-based population genetics and phylogenetic approaches to infer genetically distinct lineages. The role of spatiotemporal factors, genetic recombination and selection pressure in the evolution of DENV-2 is examined using the sequence-based bioinformatics approaches.

RESULTS

DENV-2 genetic structure is complex and consists of fifteen subpopulations/lineages. The Asian/American genotype is observed to be diversified into seven lineages. The Asian I, Cosmopolitan and sylvatic genotypes were found to be subdivided into two lineages, each. The populations of American and Asian II genotypes were observed to be homogeneous. Significant evidence of episodic positive selection was observed in all the genes, except NS4A. Positive selection operational on a few codons in envelope gene confers antigenic and lineage diversity in the American strains of Asian/American genotype. Selection on codons of non-structural genes was observed to impact diversification of lineages in Asian I, cosmopolitan and sylvatic genotypes. Evidence of intra/inter-genotype recombination was obtained and the uncertainty in classification of recombinant strains was resolved using the population genetics approach.

DISCUSSION

Complete genome-based analysis revealed that the worldwide population of DENV-2 strains is subdivided into fifteen lineages. The population structure of DENV-2 is spatiotemporal and is shaped by episodic positive selection and recombination. Intra-genotype diversity was observed in four genotypes (Asian/American, Asian I, cosmopolitan and sylvatic). Episodic positive selection on envelope and non-structural genes translates into antigenic diversity and appears to be responsible for emergence of strains/lineages in DENV-2 genotypes. Understanding of the genotype diversity and emerging lineages will be useful to design strategies for epidemiological surveillance and vaccine design.

Dengue infection

Dengue is widespread throughout the tropics and local spatial variation in dengue virus transmission is strongly influenced by rainfall, temperature, urbanization and distribution of the principal mosquito vector Aedes aegypti. Currently, endemic dengue virus transmission is reported in the Eastern Mediterranean, American, South-East Asian, Western Pacific and African regions, whereas sporadic local transmission has been reported in Europe and the United States as the result of virus introduction to areas where Ae. aegypti and Aedes albopictus, a secondary vector, occur. The global burden of the disease is not well known, but its epidemiological patterns are alarming for both human health and the global economy. Dengue has been identified as a disease of the future owing to trends toward increased urbanization, scarce water supplies and, possibly, environmental change. According to the WHO, dengue control is technically feasible with coordinated international technical and financial support for national programmes. This Primer provides a general overview on dengue, covering epidemiology, control, disease mechanisms, diagnosis, treatment and research priorities.

Calculation of the Average Cost per Case of Dengue Fever in Mexico Using a Micro-Costing Approach

Introduction

The increasing burden of dengue fever (DF) in the Americas, and the current epidemic in previously unaffected countries, generate major costs for national healthcare systems. There is a need to quantify the average cost per DF case. In Mexico, few data are available on costs, despite DF being endemic in some areas. Extrapolations from studies in other countries may prove unreliable and are complicated by the two main Mexican healthcare systems (the Secretariat of Health [SS] and the Mexican Social Security Institute [IMSS]). The present study aimed to generate specific average DF cost-per-case data for Mexico using a micro-costing approach.

Methods

Expected medical costs associated with an ideal management protocol for DF (denoted ´ideal costs´) were compared with the medical costs of current treatment practice (denoted ´real costs´) in 2012. Real cost data were derived from chart review of DF cases and interviews with patients and key personnel from 64 selected hospitals and ambulatory care units in 16 states for IMSS and SS. In both institutions, ideal and real costs were estimated using the program, actions, activities, tasks, inputs (PAATI) approach, a micro-costing technique developed by us.

Results

Clinical pathways were obtained for 1,168 patients following review of 1,293 charts. Ideal and real costs for SS patients were US$165.72 and US$32.60, respectively, in the outpatient setting, and US$587.77 and US$490.93, respectively, in the hospital setting. For IMSS patients, ideal and real costs were US$337.50 and US$92.03, respectively, in the outpatient setting, and US$2,042.54 and US$1,644.69 in the hospital setting.

Conclusions

The markedly higher ideal versus real costs may indicate deficiencies in the actual care of patients with DF. It may be necessary to derive better estimates with micro-costing techniques and compare the ideal protocol with current practice when calculating these costs, as patients do not always receive optimal care.

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by infection with the dengue virus, which is spread by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Although the effects of DF are usually mild, in some cases serious illness and even death may result. The average costs per case when extrapolated to society may therefore be high, particularly given the large number of people infected during an endemic year. In Mexico, relatively little is known about the average cost per case (from either the healthcare system or the patient perspective). Such information is important to guide decisions about health policy, e.g. vaccination or public education. We aimed to quantify the average cost per case of DF using a micro-costing approach, both for DF treatment according to an ideal protocol for the management of the patient (´ideal costs´) and according to current treatment practice in the health services (´real costs´). Our results were largely consistent with findings from other international studies, but showed higher ideal costs compared with real costs. We think this may point to inadequate use of laboratory tests and treatments for patients with DF in Mexico. Our cost data will be used in a subsequent publication regarding the economic impact of DF in Mexico.