Efficacy and immunogenicity of a Vi-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine in the prevention of typhoid fever using a controlled human infection model of Salmonella Typhi: a randomised controlled, phase 2b trial

Typhoidal Salmonella human challenge studies: ethical and practical challenges and considerations for low-resource settings

Typhoidal Salmonella is a major global problem affecting more than 12 million people annually. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) in high-resource settings have had an important role in accelerating the development of conjugate vaccines against Salmonella Typhi.

The typhoidal Salmonella model has an established safety profile in over 2000 volunteers in high-income settings, and trial protocols, with modification, could be readily transferred to new study sites. To date, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM has not been conducted in a low-resource setting, although it is being considered.

Our article describes the challenges posed by a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in the high-resource setting of Oxford and explores considerations for an endemic setting.

Development of CHIMs in endemic settings is scientifically justifiable as it remains unclear whether findings from challenge studies performed in high-resource non-endemic settings can be extrapolated to endemic settings, where the burden of invasive Salmonella is highest. Volunteers are likely to differ across a range of important variables such as previous Salmonella exposure, diet, intestinal microbiota, and genetic profile. CHIMs in endemic settings arguably are ethically justifiable as affected communities are more likely to gain benefit from the study. Local training and research capacity may be bolstered.

Safety was of primary importance in the Oxford model. Risk of harm to the individual was mitigated by careful inclusion and exclusion criteria; close monitoring with online diary and daily visits; 24/7 on-call staffing; and access to appropriate hospital facilities with capacity for in-patient admission. Risk of harm to the community was mitigated by exclusion of participants with contact with vulnerable persons; stringent hygiene and sanitation precautions; and demonstration of clearance of Salmonella infection from stool following antibiotic treatment.

Safety measures should be more stringent in settings where health systems, transport networks, and sanitation are less robust.

We compare the following issues between high- and low-resource settings: scientific justification, risk of harm to the individual and community, benefits to the individual and community, participant understanding, compensation, and regulatory requirements.

We conclude that, with careful consideration of country-specific ethical and practical issues, a typhoidal Salmonella CHIM in an endemic setting is possible.

Consensus Report on Shigella Controlled Human Infection Model: Introduction and Overview

In recent years, controlled human infection models (CHIMs) have become available for a range of infectious agents and have proved invaluable for understanding the disease process, pathogenesis, and mechanisms of immunity. CHIM studies have also contributed significantly to advancing development of a number of vaccines by providing an indication of vaccine efficacy. The Shigella CHIM has been established in 3 sites in the United States, and it is likely that the CHIM will play an important regulatory role for advancing the range of Shigella vaccine candidates that are currently in development. This supplement describes the harmonization of best practices across sites, with a view to maximizing the contribution that CHIM studies can make to Shigella vaccine development.

Consensus Report on Shigella Controlled Human Infection Model: Conduct of Studies

Shigella causes morbidity and mortality worldwide, primarily affecting young children living in low-resource settings. It is also of great concern due to increasing antibiotic resistance, and is a priority organism for the World Health Organization. A Shigella vaccine would decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with shigellosis, improve child health, and decrease the need for antibiotics. Controlled human infection models (CHIMs) are useful tools in vaccine evaluation for early up- or down-selection of vaccine candidates and potentially useful in support of licensure. Over time, the methods employed in these models have become more uniform across sites performing CHIM trials, although some differences in conduct persist. In November 2017, a Shigella CHIM workshop was convened in Washington, District of Columbia. Investigators met to discuss multiple aspects of these studies, including study procedures, clinical and immunological endpoints, and shared experiences. This article serves as a uniform procedure by which to conduct Shigella CHIM studies.

Prophylactic potential of cytolethal distending toxin B (CdtB) subunit of typhoid toxin against Typhoid fever

Typhoid fever caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S.Typhi) continues to be a major problem, especially in developing countries. Due to the rapid emergence of multi-drug-resistant (MDR) strains, which limits the efficacy of conventional antibiotics as well as problems associated with the existing vaccines, efforts are being made to develop effective prophylactic agents. CdtB subunit of typhoid toxin was selected for assessing its vaccine potential due to its high conservation throughout the Typhi strains. In-vitro assessment of DNase activity of cloned and purified CdtB protein showed a significant decrease in the band intensity of DNA. The measure of metabolic activity and morphological alterations assessed using different cell lines in the presence of CdtB protein showed no significant signs of toxicity. These observations were further strengthened by cell cycle analysis, assessed by flow cytometry. Keeping these observations in mind, the immunoprotective potential of CdtB was assessed using S.Typhi induced mouse peritonitis model. A significant titer of IgG antibodies (>128000) against CdtB protein was recorded in the immunized mice by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), which was also validated by immunoblotting. Active immunization with the protein protected 75% mice against a lethal dose of S.Typhi Ty2. The data indicated a significant (up to 5 log) reduction in the bacterial load in the spleen and liver of immunized-infected mice compared to control (unimmunized-infected) mice which might have resulted in the modulation of histoarchitecture of spleen and liver and the levels of cytokines (IL-6, TNF-α and IL-10) production; thereby indicating the effectiveness of the subunit. The observations deduced from the study give the proof of concept of immunogenic potential of protein. However, further studies involving the immunoreactivity of CdtB with the statistically significant number of sera samples obtained from the human patients would be helpful in establishing the relevance of CdtB protein in humans and for making the strategies to develop it as an effective vaccine candidate.

Phase 3 Efficacy Analysis of a Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Trial in Nepal

BACKGROUND

Salmonella Typhi is a major cause of fever in children in low- and middle-income countries. A typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) that was recently prequalified by the World Health Organization was shown to be efficacious in a human challenge model, but data from efficacy trials in areas where typhoid is endemic are lacking.

METHODS

In this phase 3, randomized, controlled trial in Lalitpur, Nepal, in which both the participants and observers were unaware of the trial-group assignments, we randomly assigned children who were between 9 months and 16 years of age, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive either a TCV or a capsular group A meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenA) as a control. The primary outcome was typhoid fever confirmed by blood culture. We present the prespecified analysis of the primary and main secondary outcomes (including an immunogenicity subgroup); the 2-year trial follow-up is ongoing.

RESULTS

A total of 10,005 participants received the TCV and 10,014 received the MenA vaccine. Blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever occurred in 7 participants who received TCV (79 cases per 100,000 person-years) and in 38 who received MenA vaccine (428 cases per 100,000 person-years) (vaccine efficacy, 81.6%; 95% confidence interval, 58.8 to 91.8; P<0.001). A total of 132 serious adverse events (61 in the TCV group and 71 in the MenA vaccine group) occurred in the first 6 months, and 1 event (pyrexia) was identified as being vaccine-related; the participant remained unaware of the trial-group assignment. Similar rates of adverse events were noted in the two trial groups; fever developed in 5.0% of participants in the TCV group and 5.4% in the MenA vaccine group in the first week after vaccination. In the immunogenicity subgroup, seroconversion (a Vi IgG level that at least quadrupled 28 days after vaccination) was 99% in the TCV group (677 of 683 participants) and 2% in the MenA vaccine group (8 of 380 participants).

CONCLUSIONS

A single dose of TCV was immunogenic and effective in reducing S. Typhi bacteremia in children 9 months to 16 years of age. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN43385161.).

Treatment responses to Azithromycin and Ciprofloxacin in uncomplicated Salmonella Typhi infection: A comparison of Clinical and Microbiological Data from a Controlled Human Infection Model

BACKGROUND

The treatment of enteric fever is complicated by the emergence of antimicrobial resistant Salmonella Typhi. Azithromycin is commonly used for first-line treatment of uncomplicated enteric fever, but the response to treatment may be sub-optimal in some patient groups when compared with fluoroquinolones.

METHODS

We performed an analysis of responses to treatment with azithromycin (500mg once-daily, 14 days) or ciprofloxacin (500mg twice-daily, 14 days) in healthy UK volunteers (18-60 years) enrolled into two Salmonella controlled human infection studies. Study A was a single-centre, open-label, randomised trial. Participants were randomised 1:1 to receive open-label oral ciprofloxacin or azithromycin, stratified by vaccine group (Vi-polysaccharide, Vi-conjugate or control Men-ACWY vaccine). Study B was an observational challenge/re-challenge study, where participants were randomised to challenge with Salmonella Typhi or Salmonella Paratyphi A. Outcome measures included fever clearance time, blood-culture clearance time and a composite measure of prolonged treatment response (persistent fever ≥38.0°C for ≥72 hours, persistently positive S. Typhi blood cultures for ≥72 hours, or change in antibiotic treatment). Both trials are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02324751 and NCT02192008).

FINDINGS

In 81 participants diagnosed with S. Typhi in two studies, treatment with azithromycin was associated with prolonged bacteraemia (median 90.8 hours [95% CI: 65.9-93.8] vs. 20.1 hours [95% CI: 7.8-24.3], p<0.001) and prolonged fever clearance times <37.5°C (hazard ratio 2.4 [95%CI: 1.2-5.0]; p = 0.02). Results were consistent when studies were analysed independently and in a sub-group of participants with no history of vaccination or previous challenge. A prolonged treatment response was observed significantly more frequently in the azithromycin group (28/52 [54.9%]) compared with the ciprofloxacin group (1/29 [3.5%]; p<0.001). In participants treated with azithromycin, observed systemic plasma concentrations of azithromycin did not exceed the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC), whilst predicted intracellular concentrations did exceed the MIC. In participants treated with ciprofloxacin, the observed systemic plasma concentrations and predicted intracellular concentrations of ciprofloxacin exceeded the MIC.

INTERPRETATION

Azithromycin at a dose of 500mg daily is an effective treatment for fully sensitive strains of S. Typhi but is associated with delayed treatment response and prolonged bacteraemia when compared with ciprofloxacin within the context of a human challenge model. Whilst the cellular accumulation of azithromycin is predicted to be sufficient to treat intracellular S. Typhi, systemic exposure may be sub-optimal for the elimination of extracellular circulating S. Typhi. In an era of increasing antimicrobial resistance, further studies are required to define appropriate azithromycin dosing regimens for enteric fever and to assess novel treatment strategies, including combination therapies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02324751 and NCT02192008).

IgA and IgG1 Specific to Vi Polysaccharide of Salmonella Typhi Correlate With Protection Status in a Typhoid Fever Controlled Human Infection Model

Vaccination against Salmonella Typhi using the Vi capsular polysaccharide, a T-cell independent antigen, can protect from the development of typhoid fever. This implies that antibodies to Vi alone can protect in the absence of a T cell-mediated immune response; however, protective Vi antibodies have not been well-characterized. We hypothesized that variability in the biophysical properties of vaccine-elicited antibodies, including subclass distribution and avidity, may impact protective outcomes. To interrogate the relationship between antibody properties and protection against typhoid fever, we analyzed humoral responses from participants in a vaccine efficacy (VE) trial using a controlled human infection model (CHIM) who received either a purified Vi polysaccharide (Vi-PS) or Vi tetanus toxoid conjugate (Vi-TT) vaccine followed by oral challenge with live S. Typhi. We determined the avidity, overall magnitude, and vaccine-induced fold-change in magnitude from before immunization to day of challenge of Vi IgA and IgG subclass antibodies. Amongst those who received the Vi-PS vaccine, Vi IgA magnitude (FDR p = 0.01) and fold-change (FDR p = 0.02) were significantly higher in protected individuals compared with those individuals who developed disease ("diagnosed"). In the Vi-TT vaccine group, the responses of protected individuals had higher fold-change in Vi IgA (FDR p = 0.06) and higher Vi IgG1 avidity (FDR p = 0.058) than the diagnosed Vi-TT vaccinees, though these findings were not significant at p < 0.05. Overall, protective antibody signatures differed between the Vi-PS and Vi-TT vaccines, thus, we conclude that although the Vi-PS and Vi-TT vaccines were observed to have similar efficacies, these vaccines may protect through different mechanisms. These data will inform studies on mechanisms of protection against typhoid fever, including identification of antibody effector functions, as well as informing future vaccination strategies.

Seroefficacy of Vi Polysaccharide-Tetanus Toxoid Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (Typbar TCV)

Background

Salmonella Typhi is the major cause of enteric fever in lower-income countries. New conjugate vaccines show promise as public health interventions, but there are no efficacy data available from endemic areas.

Methods

Data were obtained from a previously published phase 3 randomized controlled trial comparing Vi polysaccharide-tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine (Vi-TT) with Vi polysaccharide vaccine (Vi-PS) in participants aged 2-45 years. An additional open-label arm administered Vi-TT to children aged 6-23 months. The proportion of participants with presumed clinical or subclinical infection ("seroincidence") was determined using mixture models and compared using relative risks (RRs).

Results

Of 387 participants, 81 (21%) were classified as having presumed typhoid infection during the 2-year postvaccination period. Seroincidence was lower in participants randomized to Vi-TT rather than Vi-PS among those aged 2-45 years (RR, 0.372; 95% confidence interval [CI], .235-.588; P < .001) and those aged 2-15 years (RR, 0.424; 95% CI, .231-.778; P = .004). There was no difference in seroincidence for Vi-TT between those aged 2-45 years and those aged 6-23 months (RR, 1.073; 95% CI, .563-2.046; P = .83). Vaccine seroefficacy was 85% (95% CI, 80%-88%).

Conclusion

This is the first field estimate of the seroefficacy of a Vi-TT vaccine and shows that Typbar TCV substantially reduces the number of serologically defined clinical or subclinical infections in infants, children, and adults. These results support the recent World Health Organization recommendations for deployment of typhoid conjugate vaccines in high-burden areas.

The Invisible Burden: Diagnosing and Combatting Typhoid Fever in Asia and Africa

Measuring the burden of typhoid fever and developing effective strategies to reduce it require a surveillance infrastructure that is currently lacking in many endemic countries. Recent efforts and partnerships between local and international researchers have helped to provide new data on the incidence and control of typhoid in parts of Asia and Africa. Here, we highlight examples from India, Nepal, Vietnam, Fiji, Sierra Leone, and Malawi that summarize past and present experiences with the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of typhoid fever in different locations with endemic disease. While there is no validated road map for the elimination of typhoid, the lessons learned in studying the epidemiology and control of typhoid in these settings can provide insights to guide future disease control efforts.

Generating the Evidence for Typhoid Vaccine Introduction: Considerations for Global Disease Burden Estimates and Vaccine Testing Through Human Challenge

Typhoid fever has had a major impact on human populations, with the causative pathogen Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi implicated in many outbreaks through history. The current burden of disease is estimated at 11-18 million infections annually, with the majority of infections located in Africa and South Asia. Data that have been used to estimate burden are limited to a small number of blood-culture surveillance studies, largely from densely populated urban centers. Extrapolating these data to estimate disease burden within and across countries highlights the lack of precision in global figures. A number of approaches have been developed, characterizing different geographical areas by water-based risk factors for typhoid infection or broader measures of health and development to more accurately extrapolate incidence. Recognition of the substantial disease burden is essential for policy-makers considering vaccine introduction. Typhoid vaccines have been in development for >100 years. The Vi polysaccharide (ViPS) and Ty21a vaccines have had a World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for programmatic use in countries with high burden for 10 years, with 1 ViPS vaccine also having WHO prequalification. Despite this, uptake and introduction of these vaccines has been minimal. The development of a controlled human infection model (CHIM) enabled the accelerated testing of the newly WHO-prequalified ViPS-tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine, providing efficacy estimates for the vaccine, prior to larger field trials. There is an urgency to the global control of enteric fever due to the escalating problem of antimicrobial resistance. With more accurate burden of disease estimates and a vaccine showing efficacy in CHIM, that control is now a possibility.

Factors influencing participation in controlled human infection models: a pooled analysis from six enteric fever studies

Background: Enteric fever is an acute febrile-illness caused by infection with the human-restricted Salmonella serovars Typhi and Paratyphi. Controlled human infection models (CHIM) of S. Typhi and Paratyphi infection are used to accelerate vaccine development and to better understand host-pathogen interactions. The primary motivations for participants to take part in these studies are unknown. We studied participant motivations, attitudes and the factors influencing CHIM study participation. Methods: Participant surveys were nested in six enteric fever CHIM studies conducted at a single centre in Oxford, UK, between 2011 and 2017. All eligible participants received one invitation to complete an anonymous, self-administered paper or online survey on either day 28 or 60 after challenge. A descriptive analysis was performed on these pooled data. All studies were included, to minimize selection bias. Results: Survey response rates varied from 33.0%-86.1%, yielding 201 participants. In the cohort, 113/198(57.0%) were educated to bachelor’s level, 61.6% were employed, 30.3% were students and 4.6% were unemployed. The most commonly cited motivations for CHIM study participation were a desire to contribute to the progression of medicine (170/201; 84.6%); the prospect of financial reimbursement (166/201; 82.6%) and curiosity about clinical trials (117/201; 57.2%). The majority of respondents (139/197; 70.6%) reported that most people advised them against participation. Conclusion: Motivation to participate in a CHIM study was multi-factorial and heavily influenced by internal drivers beyond monetary reimbursement alone. High educational attainment and employment may be protective factors against financial inducement; however, further research is needed, particularly with CHIM studies expanding to low-income and middle-income countries.

Diagnostic host gene signature for distinguishing enteric fever from other febrile diseases

Misdiagnosis of enteric fever is a major global health problem, resulting in patient mismanagement, antimicrobial misuse and inaccurate disease burden estimates. Applying a machine learning algorithm to host gene expression profiles, we identified a diagnostic signature, which could distinguish culture-confirmed enteric fever cases from other febrile illnesses (area under receiver operating characteristic curve > 95%). Applying this signature to a culture-negative suspected enteric fever cohort in Nepal identified a further 12.6% as likely true cases. Our analysis highlights the power of data-driven approaches to identify host response patterns for the diagnosis of febrile illnesses. Expression signatures were validated using qPCR, highlighting their utility as PCR-based diagnostics for use in endemic settings.

Phase I of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP): An Overview and Lessons Learned

Objective

The objective of Phase I of the Surveillance for Enteric Fever in Asia Project (SEAP), a multiphase surveillance study characterizing the burden of disease in South Asia, was to inform data collection for prospective surveillance and to capture clinical aspects of disease.

Methods

Through a retrospective record review conducted at hospitals in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, we examined laboratory and clinical records to assess the culture positivity rate for Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi, age and sex distribution, and antimicrobial susceptability in each country.

Results

Of all blood cultures performed in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, 1.5%, 0.43%, 2%, and 1.49%, respectively, were positive for S. Typhi and 0.24%, 0.1%, 0.5%, and 0.67%, respectively, were positive for S. Paratyphi. A higher proportion of laboratory-confirmed infections in Bangladesh and Pakistan were aged ≤5 years, while India and Nepal had a higher proportion of participants aged 15–25 years. In all countries, the sex of the majority of participants was male. The majority of isolates in all countries were resistant to fluoroquinolones, with a high proportion also resistant to ampicillin, chloramphenicol, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole.

Discussion

Enteric fever remains endemic in South Asia. Data generated by this study can help inform strategies for implementation and evaluation of prevention and control measures.

A Retrospective Review of Hospital-Based Data on Enteric Fever in India, 2014-2015

Background

Enteric fever remains a threat to many countries with minimal access to clean water and poor sanitation infrastructure. As part of a multisite surveillance study, we conducted a retrospective review of records in 5 hospitals across India to gather evidence on the burden of enteric fever.

Methods

We examined hospital records (laboratory and surgical registers) from 5 hospitals across India for laboratory-confirmed Salmonella Typhi or Salmonella Paratyphi cases and intestinal perforations from 2014–2015. Clinical data were obtained where available. For laboratory-confirmed infections, we compared differences in disease burden, age, sex, clinical presentation, and antimicrobial resistance.

Results

Of 267536 blood cultures, 1418 (0.53%) were positive for S. Typhi or S. Paratyphi. Clinical data were available for 429 cases (72%); a higher proportion of participants with S. Typhi infection were hospitalized, compared with those with S. Paratyphi infection (44% vs 35%). We observed resistance to quinolones among 82% of isolates, with cases of cephalosporin resistance (1%) and macrolide resistance (9%) detected. Of 94 participants with intestinal perforations, 16 (17%) had a provisional, final, or laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of enteric fever.

Discussion

Data show a moderate burden of enteric fever in India. Enteric fever data should be systematically collected to facilitate evidence-based decision-making by countries for typhoid conjugate vaccines.

Within-host mathematical modelling of the incubation period of Salmonella Typhi

Mechanistic mathematical models are often employed to understand the dynamics of infectious diseases within a population or within a host. They provide estimates that may not be otherwise available. We have developed a within-host mathematical model in order to understand how the pathophysiology of Salmonella Typhi contributes to its incubation period. The model describes the process of infection from ingestion to the onset of clinical illness using a set of ordinary differential equations. The model was parametrized using estimated values from human and mouse experimental studies and the incubation period was estimated as 9.6 days. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to identify the parameters that most affect the derived incubation period. The migration of bacteria to the caecal lymph node was observed as a major bottle neck for infection. The sensitivity analysis indicated the growth rate of bacteria in late phase systemic infection and the net population of bacteria in the colon as parameters that most influence the incubation period. We have shown in this study how mathematical models aid in the understanding of biological processes and can be used in estimating parameters of infectious diseases.

Enteropathogen antibody dynamics and force of infection among children in low-resource settings

Little is known about enteropathogen seroepidemiology among children in low-resource settings. We measured serological IgG responses to eight enteropathogens (Giardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum, Entamoeba histolytica, Salmonella enterica, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholerae, Campylobacter jejuni, norovirus) in cohorts from Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania. We studied antibody dynamics and force of infection across pathogens and cohorts. Enteropathogens shared common seroepidemiologic features that enabled between-pathogen comparisons of transmission. Overall, exposure was intense: for most pathogens the window of primary infection was <3 years old; for highest transmission pathogens primary infection occurred within the first year. Longitudinal profiles demonstrated significant IgG boosting and waning above seropositivity cutoffs, underscoring the value of longitudinal designs to estimate force of infection. Seroprevalence and force of infection were rank-preserving across pathogens, illustrating the measures provide similar information about transmission heterogeneity. Our findings suggest antibody response can be used to measure population-level transmission of diverse enteropathogens in serologic surveillance.

Diarrhea, which is caused by bacteria such as Salmonella or by viruses like norovirus, is the fourth leading cause of death among children worldwide, with children in low-resource settings being at highest risk. The pathogens that cause diarrhea spread when stool from infected people comes into contact with new hosts, for example, through inadequate sanitation or by drinking contaminated water. Currently, the best way to track these infections is to collect stool samples from people and test them for the presence of the pathogens. Unfortunately, this is costly and difficult to do on a large scale outside of clinical settings, making it hard to track the spread of diarrhea-causing pathogens.

The body produces antibodies – small proteins that can detect specific pathogens – in response to an infection. These antibodies help ward off future infections by the same pathogen, so if they are present in the blood, this indicates a current or previous infection. Scientists already collect blood samples to track malaria, HIV and vaccine-preventable diseases in low-resource settings. These samples could be tested more broadly to measure the levels of antibodies against diarrhea-causing pathogens.

Now, Arnold et al. have used blood samples collected from children in Haiti, Kenya, and Tanzania to measure antibody responses to 8 diarrhea-causing pathogens. The results showed that many children in these settings had been infected with all 8 pathogens before age three, and that all of the pathogens shared similar age-dependent patterns of antibody response. This finding enabled Arnold et al. to combine antibody measurements with statistical models to estimate each pathogen’s force of infection, that is, the rate at which susceptible individuals in the population become infected. This is a key step for epidemiologists to understand which pathogens cause the most infections in a population.

The experiments show that testing blood samples for antibodies could provide scientists with a new tool to track the transmission of diarrhea-causing pathogens in low-resource settings. This information could help public health officials design and test efforts to prevent diarrhea, for example, by improving water treatment or developing vaccines.

Typhoid and paratyphoid fever: a call to action

Purpose of review

Enteric fever remains a major global-health concern, estimated to be responsible for between 11.9 and 26.9 million cases annually. Long-term prevention of enteric fever will require improved access to safe drinking water combined with investment in sanitation and hygiene interventions. In the short-to-medium term, new control strategies for typhoid fever have arrived in the form of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccines (TCVs), offering hope that disease control can be achieved in the near future.

Recent findings

The diagnosis of enteric fever is complicated by its nonspecific clinical presentation, coupled with the low sensitivity of commonly used diagnostics. Investment in diagnostics has the potential to improve management, to refine estimates of disease burden and to facilitate vaccine impact studies. A new generation of reliable, diagnostic tests is needed that are simultaneously accessible, cost-effective, sensitive, and specific. The emergence and global dissemination of multidrug-resistant, fluoroquinolone-resistant, and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains of Salmonella Typhi emphasizes the importance of continued surveillance and appropriate antibiotic stewardship, integrated into a global strategy to address antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Current empirical treatment guidelines are out of date and should be updated to respond to local trends in AMR, so as to guide treatment choices in the absence of robust diagnostics and laboratory facilities. In September 2017, the WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts (SAGE) immunization recommended the programmatic use of TCVs in high burden countries. Ongoing and future studies should aim to study the impact of these vaccines in a diverse range of setting and to support the deployment of TCVs in high-burden countries.

Summary

The advent of new generation TCVs offers us a practical and affordable public-health tool that – for the first time – can be integrated into routine childhood immunization programmes. In this review, we advocate for the deployment of TCVs in line with WHO recommendations, to improve child health and limit the spread of antibiotic-resistant S. Typhi.

Investigation of the role of typhoid toxin in acute typhoid fever in a human challenge model

Salmonella Typhi is a human host-restricted pathogen that is responsible for typhoid fever in approximately 10.9 million people annually¹. The typhoid toxin is postulated to have a central role in disease pathogenesis, the establishment of chronic infection and human host restriction^2–6. However, its precise role in typhoid disease in humans is not fully defined. We studied the role of typhoid toxin in acute infection using a randomized, double-blind S. Typhi human challenge model⁷. Forty healthy volunteers were randomized (1:1) to oral challenge with 10⁴ colony-forming units of wild-type or an isogenic typhoid toxin deletion mutant (TN) of S. Typhi. We observed no significant difference in the rate of typhoid infection (fever ≥38 °C for ≥12 h and/or S. Typhi bacteremia) between participants challenged with wild-type or TN S. Typhi (15 out of 21 (71%) versus 15 out of 19 (79%); P = 0.58). The duration of bacteremia was significantly longer in participants challenged with the TN strain compared with wild-type (47.6 hours (28.9–97.0) versus 30.3(3.6–49.4); P ≤ 0.001). The clinical syndrome was otherwise indistinguishable between wild-type and TN groups. These data suggest that the typhoid toxin is not required for infection and the development of early typhoid fever symptoms within the context of a human challenge model. Further clinical data are required to assess the role of typhoid toxin in severe disease or the establishment of bacterial carriage.

Typhoid toxin is not essential for the pathogenesis of typhoid fever in healthy humans challenged with Salmonella Typhi.

Cost-effectiveness of routine and campaign use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine in Gavi-eligible countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Typhoid fever is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. In 2017, WHO recommended the programmatic use of typhoid Vi-conjugate vaccine (TCV) in endemic settings, and Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, has pledged support for vaccine introduction in these countries. Country-level health economic evaluations are now needed to inform decision-making.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we compared four strategies: no vaccination, routine immunisation at 9 months, and routine immunisation at 9 months with catch-up campaigns to either age 5 years or 15 years. For each of the 54 countries eligible for Gavi support, output from an age-structured transmission-dynamic model was combined with country-specific treatment and vaccine-related costs, treatment outcomes, and disability weights to estimate the reduction in typhoid burden, identify the strategy that maximised average net benefit (ie, the optimal strategy) across a range of country-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) values, estimate and investigate the uncertainties surrounding our findings, and identify the epidemiological conditions under which vaccination is optimal.

FINDINGS

The optimal strategy was either no vaccination or TCV immunisation including a catch-up campaign. Routine vaccination with a catch-up campaign to 15 years of age was optimal in 38 countries, assuming a WTP value of at least US$200 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, or assuming a WTP value of at least 25% of each country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita per DALY averted, at a vaccine price of $1·50 per dose (but excluding Gavi's contribution according to each country's transition phase). This vaccination strategy was also optimal in 48 countries assuming a WTP of at least $500 per DALY averted, in 51 with assumed WTP values of at least $1000, in 47 countries assuming a WTP value of at least 50% of GDP per capita per DALY averted, and in 49 assuming a minimum of 100%. Vaccination was likely to be cost-effective in countries with 300 or more typhoid cases per 100 000 person-years. Uncertainty about the probability of hospital admission (and typhoid incidence and mortality) had the greatest influence on the optimal strategy.

INTERPRETATION

Countries should establish their own WTP threshold and consider routine TCV introduction, including a catch-up campaign when vaccination is optimal on the basis of this threshold. Obtaining improved estimates of the probability of hospital admission would be valuable whenever the optimal strategy is uncertain.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Research Foundation-Flanders, and the Belgian-American Education Foundation.

Optimization of an efficient solid-phase enrichment medium for Salmonella detection using response surface methodology

Salmonella is a pathogenic bacterium contributing to food poisoning and acute infectious intestinal disease. The traditional standard detection method is based on the principle of liquid phase enrichment and has a low sensitivity on targeted bacteria. We previously developed a visual immunosensor technique for efficient detection and isolation of Salmonella by applying fluorescent nanobioprobes on a specially-designed cellulose-based swab. In this study, a whole-sample solid-phase enrichment assay (WSEA) was established by optimization of the enrichment medium using response surface methodology (RSM), a powerful statistical tool for regression analysis. The optimal formula was determined as: 0.60% polyvalent poly peptone, 0.40% buffered peptone water, 0.09% ferric citrate amine, 0.24% sodium hyposulfite, 0.035% cystine, 0.01 µg mL⁻¹ super absorbing polymer, 0.011% sodium deoxycholate, 15.00 µg mL⁻¹ ethyl green and 30.00 µg mL⁻¹ sodium selenite. Using this formula, Salmonella was visualized with naked eyes by relying on the indication of black spots formed on the swab. The analytic sensitivity of the assay was determined as 10¹ cells mL⁻¹ with a concentration of interfering bacteria (Escherichia coli) at 10⁵ cells mL⁻¹. This optimized formula was confirmed with 4006 patients’ fecal samples, in which the positive rate was 0.42% by the conventional culture-based method and 2.12% by WSEA. The optimized formulation on solid phase enrichment by RSM allows relatively quick, low-cost, and large-scale detection of Salmonella, and could be used in grassroots medical institutions.

O-acetylation of typhoid capsular polysaccharide confers polysaccharide rigidity and immunodominance by masking additional epitopes

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The binding of anti-Vi mAb and polyclonal immune sera correlated with the level of O-acetylation.

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C. freundii Vi resists de-O-acetylation and is more viscous than S. Typhi Vi.

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Sera from human vaccine recipients contains IgG that recognizes the backbone of Vi.

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Simulations show O-acetyls are exposed on the surface of Vi and confer rigidity.

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MD gives conformational rationale for effect of O-acetylation on Vi antigenicity and viscosity.

In this work, we explore the effects of O-acetylation on the physical and immunological characteristics of the WHO International Standards of Vi polysaccharide (Vi) from both Citrobacter freundii and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi. We find that, although structurally identical according to NMR, the two Vi standards have differences with respect to susceptibility to de-O-acetylation and viscosity in water. Vi standards from both species have equivalent mass and O-acetylation-dependent binding to a mouse monoclonal antibody and to anti-Vi polyclonal antisera, including the WHO International Standard for human anti-typhoid capsular Vi PS IgG. This study also confirms that human anti-Vi sera binds to completely de-O-acetylated Vi. Molecular dynamics simulations provide conformational rationales for the known effect of de-O-acetylation both on the viscosity and antigenicity of the Vi, demonstrating that de-O-acetylation has a very marked effect on the conformation and dynamic behavior of the Vi, changing the capsular polysaccharide from a rigid helix into a more flexible coil, as well as enhancing the strong interaction of the polysaccharide with sodium ions. Partial de-O-acetylation of Vi revealed hidden epitopes that were recognized by human and sheep anti-Vi PS immune sera. These findings have significance for the manufacture and evaluation of Vi vaccines.

Controlled human infection for vaccination against Streptococcus pyogenes (CHIVAS): Establishing a group A Streptococcus pharyngitis human infection study

Group A Streptococcus (GAS) is a highly-adapted and human-restricted pathogen responsible for a high global burden of disease across a diverse clinical spectrum. Vaccine development has been impeded by scientific, regulatory, and commercial obstacles. Human infection studies (HIS) are increasingly contributing to drug, diagnostics, and vaccine development, reducing uncertainty at early stages, especially for pathogens with animal models that incompletely reproduce key elements of human disease. We review the small number of historical GAS HIS and present the study protocol for a dose-ranging inpatient study in healthy adults. The primary objective of the study is to establish a new GAS pharyngitis HIS with an attack rate of at least 60% as a safe and reliable platform for vaccine evaluation and pathogenesis research. According to an adaptive dose-ranging study design, emm75 GAS doses manufactured in keeping with principles of Good Manufacturing Practice will be directly applied by swab to the pharynx of carefully screened healthy adult volunteers at low risk of severe complicated GAS disease. Participants will remain as closely monitored inpatients for up to six days, observed for development of the primary outcome of acute symptomatic pharyngitis, as defined by clinical and microbiological criteria. All participants will be treated with antibiotics and followed as outpatients for six months. An intensive sampling schedule will facilitate extensive studies of host and organism dynamics during experimental pharyngitis. Ethics approval has been obtained and the study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03361163).

Using a Systems Biology Approach To Study Host-Pathogen Interactions

The rapid development of genomics and other “-omics” approaches has significantly impacted how we have investigated host-pathogen interactions since the turn of the millennium. Technologies such as next-generation sequencing, stem cell biology, and high-throughput proteomics have transformed the scale and sensitivity with which we interrogate biological samples. These approaches are impacting experimental design in the laboratory and transforming clinical management in health care systems. Here, we review this area from the perspective of research on bacterial pathogens.

Association between S. Typhi-specific memory CD4+ and CD8+ T responses in the terminal ileum mucosa and in peripheral blood elicited by the live oral typhoid vaccine Ty21a in humans

CD4+ and CD8+ T subsets are essential components of the adaptive immune system which act in concert at the site of infections to effectively protect against pathogens. Very limited data is available in humans regarding the relationship between CD4+ and CD8+ S. Typhi responsive cells in the terminal ileum mucosa (TI) and peripheral blood following Ty21a oral typhoid immunization. Here, we compared TI lamina propria mononuclear cells (LPMC) and peripheral blood CD4+ and CD8+ T memory (T_M) subsets responses and their relationship by Spearman’s correlation following Ty21a immunization in volunteers undergoing routine colonoscopy. We observed that Ty21a immunization (i) influences the homing and accumulation of both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in the TI, particularly integrin α4β7+ CCR9+ CD8+ T cells, (ii) elicits significantly higher frequencies of LPMC S. Typhi-responsive CD8+ T multifunctional (CD107a, IFNγ, IL-17A and/or MIP1β) cells than their CD4+ T counterparts, and (iii) results in the correlation of LPMC CD4+ Teffector/memory (T_EM) S. Typhi responses (CD107a, IFNγ, TNFα, IL-17A and/or MIP1β) to their LPMC CD8+ T_EM counterparts. Moreover, we demonstrated that these positive correlations between CD4+ and CD8+ T_EM occur primarily in TI LPMC but not in PBMC, suggesting important differences in responses between the mucosal and systemic compartments following oral Ty21a immunization. This study provides the first demonstration of the correlation of S. Typhi-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T_M responses in the human terminal ileum mucosa and provides valuable information regarding the generation of mucosal and systemic immune responses following oral Ty21a-immunization which might impact future vaccine design and development.

The global burden of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them.

METHODS

For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers.

FINDINGS

Globally, 14·3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12·5-16·3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44·6% (42·2-47·0) decline from 25·9 million (22·0-29·9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54·9% (53·4-56·5), from 439·2 (376·7-507·7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197·8 (172·0-226·2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76·3% (71·8-80·5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0·95% (0·54-1·53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135·9 thousand (76·9-218·9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41·0% (33·6-48·3) decline from 230·5 thousand (131·2-372·6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9·8 million (5·6-15·8) DALYs in 2017, down 43·0% (35·5-50·6) from 17·2 million (9·9-27·8) DALYs in 1990.

INTERPRETATION

Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Accelerating Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine Introduction: What Can Be Learned From Prior New Vaccine Introduction Initiatives?

The health consequences of typhoid, including increasing prevalence of drug-resistant strains, can stress healthcare systems. While vaccination is one of the most successful and cost-effective health interventions, vaccine introduction can take years and require considerable effort. The Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium (TyVAC) employs an integrated, proactive approach to accelerate the introduction of a new typhoid conjugate vaccine to reduce the burden of typhoid in countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. TyVAC and its partners are executing a plan, informed by prior successful vaccine introductions, and tailored to the nuances of typhoid disease and the typhoid conjugate vaccine. The iterative process detailed herein summarizes the strategy and experience gained from the first 2 years of the project.

Global Typhoid Fever Incidence: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Contemporary incidence estimates of typhoid fever are needed to guide policy decisions and control measures and to improve future epidemiological studies.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed 3 databases (Ovid Medline, PubMed, and Scopus) without restriction on age, country, language, or time for studies reporting the incidence of blood culture-confirmed typhoid fever. Outbreak, travel-associated, and passive government surveillance reports were excluded. We performed a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to calculate estimates of pooled incidence, stratifying by studies that reported the incidence of typhoid fever and those that estimated incidence by using multipliers.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies were included in the analysis. There were 26 study sites from 16 countries reporting typhoid cases from population-based incidence studies, and 17 sites in 9 countries used multipliers to account for underascertainment in sentinel surveillance data. We identified Africa and Asia as regions with studies showing high typhoid incidence while noting considerable variation of typhoid incidence in time and place, including in consecutive years at the same location. Overall, more recent studies reported lower typhoid incidence compared to years prior to 2000. We identified variation in the criteria for collecting a blood culture, and among multiplier studies we identified a lack of a standardization for the types of multipliers being used to estimate incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Typhoid fever incidence remains high at many sites. Additional and more accurate typhoid incidence studies are needed to support country decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine adoption. Standardization of multiplier types applied in multiplier studies is recommended.

[CME: Typhoid Fever - Clinical Manifestation, Diagnosis, Therapy and Prevention]

CME: Typhoid Fever - Clinical Manifestation, Diagnosis, Therapy and Prevention Abstract. Thypoid fever is rare in Western countries. It is, however, among the most common etiologies for febrile illness in the traveller returning from tropical areas (especially South(east) Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). There are several signs that have been described as classical findings in typhoid fever: i) febrile temperatures with relative bradycardia, ii) eosinopenia, iii) slow defervescence, and iv) systemic manifestations (e.g. hepatitis). Diagnosis is confirmed by positive blood cultures. Pretravel vaccination and safe food and water practices can prevent typhoid fever.

S. typhi Vi capsular polysaccharide vaccine-induced humoral immunity in travellers with immunosuppressive therapy for rheumatoid disease

INTRODUCTION

Typhoid fever is a global health problem, causing significant morbidity and mortality. Currently, the most widely used vaccine is the typhoid Vi capsular polysaccharide (Vi-PS) vaccine. While epidemiological studies on its efficacy have been performed in children in endemic countries, there are no efficacy studies evaluating its use in travel medicine. Response to vaccination may differ in travellers receiving immunosuppressive therapy. This study investigates the humoral response to Vi-PS vaccination in travellers receiving immunosuppressive therapy for rheumatoid disease.

METHODS

We recruited patients from the LUMC rheumatology outpatient clinic and travellers from the travel clinic who had previously received Vi-PS vaccination and also immunosuppressive therapy for rheumatoid disease. We analysed blood samples acquired from 42 patients over a period of 3 years. We estimated the length of persistence of protective titres using the survival analysis using multiple cut-off values for protection and measured titre half-life and the influence of immunosuppressive medication on titre half-life using mixed models.

RESULTS

Anti-Vi-PS antibody levels stayed above 10 EU/ml for a mean of 13.3 years, above 15 EU/ml for a mean of 10.1 years and above 20 EU/ml for a mean of 8.6 years after Vi-PS vaccination. Titre half-life was 7.5 years (95% CI 5.0-14.7 years, P < 0.001). No significant influence of medication on titre half-life was found.

CONCLUSION

Both persistence of protective antibody titres and titre half-life are longer than expected based on other studies. This warrants further study in adult volunteers, both in healthy individuals and patients suffering from rheumatoid disease.

Meeting the discovery challenge of drug-resistant infections: progress and focusing resources

Following multiple warnings from governments and health organisations, there has been renewed investment, led by the public sector, in the discovery of novel antimicrobials to meet the challenge of rising levels of drug-resistant infection, particularly in the case of resistance to antibiotics. Initiatives have also been announced to support and enable the antibiotic discovery process. In January 2018, the Medicines Discovery Catapult, UK, hosted a symposium: Next Generation Antibiotics Discovery, to consider the latest initiatives and any remaining challenges to inform and guide the international research community and better focus resources to yield a novel class of antibiotic.

Establishment of the first International Standard for human anti-typhoid capsular Vi polysaccharide IgG

Vi capsular polysaccharide (Vi) conjugate vaccines, which can prevent typhoid in infants and young children, are being developed. Comparative immunogenicity studies are facilitated by an International Standard (IS) for human anti-Vi IgG. 16/138, a pool of sera from volunteers which received either Vi conjugate vaccine or plain Vi vaccine, was assessed as an IS alongside U.S. reference reagent Vi-IgGR1, 2011. Samples were tested in a commercial ELISA (n = 7), a standardised ELISA based on biotinylated Vi (n = 7) and in-house ELISAs (n = 7). Valid estimates were obtained for the potency of all samples in the commercial ELISA, and the commutability of 16/138 and Vi-IgGR1, 2011 was evident for the commercial ELISA and in-house ELISAs based on a coating of Vi and protein. The WHO Expert Committee on Biological Standardization established 16/138 as the first IS for anti-Vi IgG with 100 IU per ampoule and assigned 163 IU per vial of Vi-IgGR1, 2011.

Ethical challenges posed by human infection challenge studies in endemic settings

Human infection challenge studies (HCS) involve intentionally infecting research participants with pathogens, often with the ultimate aim of developing new interventions against infectious diseases. Despite ethical concerns about research involving vulnerable populations, there are both scientific and ethical reasons to consider conducting more HCS in low- and middle-income countries where neglected diseases are often endemic. HCS researchers can reduce the risks to participants (and the risks of transmission from participants to others) by controlling multiple factors (eg those related to the laboratory environment, participant selection, the pathogen, and the timing of treatment); but HCS nonetheless raise important ethical issues, some of which may be particularly pertinent to HCS in endemic settings. This article provides background on HCS in general, as well as recent HCS in low- and middle-income countries, and an overview of the ethical issues associated with HCS in endemic settings.

Incubation period of typhoidal salmonellosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis of outbreaks and experimental studies occurring over the last century

BACKGROUND

Salmonella Typhi is a human pathogen that causes typhoid fever. It is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries and is responsible for several outbreaks in developed countries. Studying certain parameters of the pathogen, such as the incubation period, provides a better understanding of its pathophysiology and its characteristics within a population. Outbreak investigations and human experimental studies provide an avenue to study these relevant parameters.

METHODS

In this study, the authors have undertaken a systematic review of outbreak investigation reports and experimental studies, extracted reported data, tested for heterogeneity, identified subgroups of studies with limited evidence of heterogeneity between them and identified factors that may contribute to the distribution of incubation period. Following identification of relevant studies, we extracted both raw and summary incubation data. We tested for heterogeneity by deriving the value of I2 and conducting a KS-test to compare the distribution between studies. We performed a linear regression analysis to identify the factors associated with incubation period and using the resulting p-values from the KS-test, we conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis to classify studies with limited evidence of heterogeneity into subgroups.

RESULTS

We identified thirteen studies to be included in the review and extracted raw incubation period data from eleven. The value of I2 was 84% and the proportion of KS test p-values that were less than 0.05 was 63.6% indicating high heterogeneity not due to chance. We identified vaccine history and attack rates as factors that may be associated with incubation period, although these were not significant in the multivariable analysis (p-value: 0.1). From the hierarchical clustering analysis, we classified the studies into five subgroups. The mean incubation period of the subgroups ranged from 9.7 days to 21.2 days. Outbreaks reporting cases with previous vaccination history were clustered in a single subgroup and reported the longest incubation period.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified attack rate and previous vaccination as possible associating factors, however further work involving analyses of individual patient data and developing mathematical models is needed to confirm these as well as examine additional factors that have not been included in our study.

Computing threshold antibody levels of protection in vaccine clinical trials: An assessment of methodological bias

In the development of new vaccines, understanding the level of vaccine-induced antibody that is sufficient to protect against disease can simplify and expedite the development and licensing process. If there is an accepted threshold antibody level that is indicative of protection, then smaller trials measuring antibody concentration alone can be conducted to test new vaccines, instead of large efficacy studies powered on clinical outcomes. Commonly, threshold levels of protective antibody are determined from clinical efficacy trials in which clinical endpoints are measured on everyone and a small subset of participants have antibody concentrations measured. The proportion of participants with antibody below a threshold in each group in the immunogenicity subset can be compared to the proportions with disease in each group in the larger trial to find an appropriate threshold. Mathematically, this method seeks to compute an absolute threshold whereby antibody above the threshold provides complete, sterilizing immunity. However, in practice it is often understood that such thresholds may only be indicative of a relative degree of protection rather than an absolute one. Although this approach is common, the accuracy of such methods when the underlying mathematical assumptions do not hold true, has never been tested. We simulated data from clinical trial scenarios under varying assumptions of vaccine efficacy and calculated antibody thresholds of protection. We estimated the bias in the calculated thresholds derived from each scenario and showed that in many situations this method produces inflated estimates of thresholds, particularly if a vaccine induces high levels of antibody or when the underlying assumption of sterilizing immunity is violated.

Typhoid fever in Santiago, Chile: Insights from a mathematical model utilizing venerable archived data from a successful disease control program

Typhoid fever is endemic in many developing countries. In the early 20^th century, newly industrializing countries including the United States successfully controlled typhoid as water treatment (chlorination/sand filtration) and improved sanitation became widespread. Enigmatically, typhoid remained endemic through the 1980s in Santiago, Chile, despite potable municipal water and widespread household sanitation. Data were collected across multiple stages of endemicity and control in Santiago, offering a unique resource for gaining insight into drivers of transmission in modern settings. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of typhoid transmission, with model components including distinctions between long-cycle and short-cycle transmission routes. Data used to fit the model included the prevalence of chronic carriers, seasonality, longitudinal incidence, and age-specific distributions of typhoid infection and disease. Our model captured the dynamics seen in Santiago across endemicity, vaccination, and environmental control. Both vaccination and diminished exposure to seasonal amplified long-cycle transmission contributed to the observed declines in typhoid incidence, with the vaccine estimated to elicit herd effects. Vaccines are important tools for controlling endemic typhoid, with even limited coverage eliciting herd effects in this setting. Removing the vehicles responsible for amplified long-cycle transmission and assessing the role of chronic carriers in endemic settings are additional key elements in designing programs to achieve accelerated control of endemic typhoid.

Typhoid fever was successfully controlled in Santiago, Chile, after a series of interventions including vaccination with a live oral vaccine (Ty21a), and an environmental sanitation improvement, when a ban was put on the irrigation of salad vegetable crops with untreated sewage. Data collected during this period inform seasonality, age distribution and longitudinal trends of disease. We developed an individual-based, mathematical model to both simulate the dynamics of typhoid seen in Santiago, as well as to investigate relative impacts of the vaccine and sanitation interventions. We found that herd immunity resulted from field trials of the Ty21a vaccine and that chronic carriers were a likely driver of sustained transmission at low incidence levels. Modeling typhoid fever in areas that have demonstrated successful control provides insight for control strategies in modern settings.

Typhoid conjugate vaccines: a new tool in the fight against antimicrobial resistance

Typhoid fever is an acute systemic infectious disease responsible for an estimated 12-20 million illnesses and over 150 000 deaths annually. In March, 2018, a new recommendation was issued by WHO for the programmatic use of typhoid conjugate vaccines in endemic countries. Health economic analyses of typhoid vaccines have informed funding decisions and national policies regarding vaccine rollout. However, by focusing only on averted typhoid cases and their associated costs, traditional cost-effectiveness analyses might underestimate crucial benefits of typhoid vaccination programmes, because the potential effect of typhoid vaccines on the treatment of patients with non-specific acute febrile illnesses is not considered. For every true case of typhoid fever, three to 25 patients without typhoid disease are treated with antimicrobials unnecessarily, conservatively amounting to more than 50 million prescriptions per year. Antimicrobials for suspected typhoid might therefore be an important selective pressure for the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance globally. We propose that large-scale, more aggressive typhoid vaccination programmes-including catch-up campaigns in children up to 15 years of age, and vaccination in lower incidence settings-have the potential to reduce the overuse of antimicrobials and thereby reduce antimicrobial resistance in many bacterial pathogens. Funding bodies and national governments must therefore consider the potential for broad reductions in antimicrobial use and resistance in decisions related to the rollout of typhoid conjugate vaccines.