Financing transformative health systems towards achievement of the health Sustainable Development Goals: a model for projected resource needs in 67 low-income and middle-income countries

Developing country-specific wheelchair service provision strategic plans for Romania and the Philippines

Background: Achieving appropriate wheelchair provision at a national level is complex, requiring regulations, funding and policies established through governments. Understanding wheelchair provision within different countries is key. This paper describes the process used to support the development of wheelchair service strategic plans in Romania and the Philippines. It considers the influences, meaning, challenges and developments when producing strategic priorities within two different contexts. Methods: The International Society of Wheelchair Professionals (ISWP) sponsored affiliates Motivation Foundation Romania and the Philippine Society of Wheelchair Philippine Society of Wheelchair Professionals (PSWP), to conduct organizational ethnographic mixed method stakeholder centred studies, to develop robust strategic plans. An affiliate coordinator for wheelchair provision in less resourced settings supported this process. Results: Diversity between the two-affiliate sites was evident, influencing value placed within both societies towards equality and participation. Common components to address included: advocacy; wheelchair service infrastructure; capacity building; education; training and research. Research process facilitation supported by affiliate coordinator is important. Conclusion: Understanding contextual dimensions, which sharp a countries wheelchair service, is essential. Member states should take action by conducting in-country wheelchair sector analysis, to create wheelchair provision strategies for sustainable development, to meet personal posture and mobility needs, primary for daily living, as a basic human right. Implications for rehabilitation Understanding the complexity of providing appropriate wheelchairs within different countries is essential to meet the diverse needs of citizens. Conducting situational analysis of the wheelchair sector involving key stakeholders in the process is important to understand different perspectives and develop strategic priorities towards sustainable development. Producing context specific wheelchair sector reports and strategic plans strengthens the evidence base when informing governments regarding the importance of developing sustainable wheelchair provision infrastructures. The affiliate coordinator role is important to support affiliates to produce robust documentation that clearly and objectively outlines the wheelchair sector issues and plans, to provide solutions.

Aid Effectiveness in the Sustainable Development Goals Era Comment on ""It's About the Idea Hitting the Bull's Eye": How Aid Effectiveness Can Catalyse the Scale-up of Health Innovations"

Over just a six-year period from 2005-2011, five aid effectiveness initiatives were launched: the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2005), the International Health Partnership plus (2007), the Accra Agenda for Action (2008), the Busan Partnership for Effective Cooperation (2011), and the Global Partnership for Effective Development Cooperation (GPEDC) (2011). More recently, in 2015, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda (AAAA) was signed at the third international conference on financing for development and the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) 2030 Global Compact was signed in 2017. Both documents espouse principles of aid effectiveness and would most likely guide financing decisions in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) era. This is therefore a good moment to assess whether the aid effectiveness agenda made a difference in development and its relevance in the SDG era.

Tracking aid for global health goals: a systematic comparison of four approaches applied to reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health

Background

Four initiatives have estimated the value of aid for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH): Countdown to 2015, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the Muskoka Initiative, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) policy marker. We aimed to compare the estimates, trends, and methodologies of these initiatives and make recommendations for future aid tracking.

Methods

We compared estimates of aid for RMNCH from the four initiatives for all years available at the time of our analysis (1990–2016). We used publicly available datasets for IHME and Countdown. We produced estimates for Muskoka and the OECD policy marker using data in the OECD Creditor Reporting System. We sought to explain differences in estimates by critically comparing the methods used by each approach to identify and analyse aid, and quantifying the effects of these choices on estimates.

Findings

All four approaches indicated substantial increases over time in global aid for RMNCH, but estimates of aid amounts and year-on-year trends differed substantially, especially for individual donors and recipient countries. Muskoka (US$ 13·0 billion in 2013, constant 2015 US$) and Countdown's RMNCH estimates ($13·1 billion in 2013) tended to be the highest and most similar, although they often indicated different year-on-year trends. IHME produced lower estimates ($10·8 billion in 2013), which often indicated different trends from the other approaches. The OECD policy marker produced by far the lowest estimates ($2·0 billion in 2013) because half of bilateral donors did not report on it consistently and those who did tended to apply it narrowly. Estimates differed across approaches primarily because of differences in methods for distinguishing aid for RMNCH from aid for other purposes; adjustments for inflation, exchange rates, and under-reporting; whether donors were credited for their support to multilateral institutions; and the handling of aid to unspecified recipients.

Interpretation

The four approaches are likely to lead to different conclusions about whether individual donors and recipient countries have fulfilled their obligations and commitments and whether aid was sufficient, targeted to countries with greater need, or effective. We recommend that efforts to track aid for the Sustainable Development Goals reflect their multisectoral and interconnected nature and make analytical choices that are appropriate to their objectives, recognising the trade-offs between simplicity, timeliness, precision, accuracy, efficiency, flexibility, replicability, and the incentives that different metrics create for donors.

Funding

Subgrant OPP1058954 from the US Fund for UNICEF under their Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn and Child Survival Grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Creating a Culture of Health in Planning and Implementing Innovative Strategies Addressing Non-communicable Chronic Diseases

Ongoing demographic changes are challenging health systems worldwide especially in relation to increasing longevity and the resultant rise of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To meet these challenges, a paradigm shift to a more proactive approach to health promotion, and maintenance is needed. This new paradigm focuses on creating and implementing an ecological model of Culture of Health. The conceptualization of the Culture of Health is defined as one where good health and well-being flourish across geographic, demographic, and social sectors; fostering healthy equitable communities where citizens have the opportunity to make choices and be co-producers of healthy lifestyles. Based on Antonovsky's Salutogenesis model which asserts that the experience of health moves along a continuum across the lifespan, we will identify the key drivers for achieving a Culture of Health. These include mindset/expectations, sense of community, and civic engagement. The present article discusses these drivers and identifies areas where policy and research actions are needed to advance positive change on population health and well-being. We highlight empirical evidence of drivers within the EU guided by the activities within the thematic Action Groups of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Aging (EIP on AHA), focusing on Lifespan Health Promotion and Prevention of Age-Related Frailty and Disease (A3 Action Group). We will specifically focus on the effect of Culture on Health, highlighting cross-cutting drivers across domains such as innovations at the individual and community level, and in synergies with business, policy, and research entities. We will present examples of drivers for creating a Culture of Health, the barriers, the remaining gaps, and areas of future research to achieve an inclusive and sustainable asset-based community.

Trends and drivers of government health spending in sub-Saharan Africa, 1995-2015

INTRODUCTION

Government health spending is a primary source of funding in the health sector across the world. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, only about a third of all health spending is sourced from the government. The objectives of this study are to describe the growth in government health spending, examine its determinants and explain the variation in government health spending across sub-Saharan African countries.

METHODS

We used panel data on domestic government health spending in 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 1995 to 2015 from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. A regression model was used to examine the factors associated with government health spending, and Shapley decomposition was used to attribute the contributions of factors to the explained variance in government health spending.

RESULTS

While the growth rate in government health spending in sub-Saharan Africa has been positive overall, there are variations across subgroups. Between 1995 and 2015, government health spending in West Africa grew by 6.7% (95% uncertainty intervals [UI]: 6.2% to 7.0%) each year, whereas in Southern Africa it grew by only 4.5% (UI: 4.5% to 4.5%) each year. Furthermore, per-person government health spending ranged from $651 (Namibia) in 2017 purchasing power parity dollars to $4 (Central African Republic) in 2015. Good governance, national income and the share of it that is government spending were positively associated with government health spending. The results from the decomposition, however, showed that individual country characteristics made up the highest percentage of the explained variation in government health spending across sub-Saharan African countries.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight that a country's policy choices are important for how much the health sector receives. As the attention of the global health community focuses on ways to stimulate domestic government health spending, an understanding that individual country sociopolitical context is an important driver for success will be key.

A quantitative analysis of sources of changes in government expenditures on health, 2000 to 2015: what can we learn from experience to date?

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) requires increased domestic financing of health by low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). It is critical to understand how much governments have devoted to health from their own sources and how much growth might be realistic over time. Methods: Using data from WHO's Global Health Expenditure Database, we examined how the composition of current health expenditure changed by financing source and the main sources of growth in health expenditures from 2000-2015. We also disaggregated how much growth in government expenditures on health from domestic sources was due to economic growth, growth in the tax base, reallocations in government expenditures towards health, and the interactions of these factors. Results: Lower MICs (LMICs) and upper MICs (UMICs), as a group, saw a significant reduction in out-of-pocket expenditures and a significant growth in government expenditures on health from domestic sources as a share of current health expenditures over the period. This trend indicates likely progress in the pathway to UHC. For LICs, these trends were much more muted. Growth in government expenditure on health from domestic sources was driven primarily by economic growth in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs. Growth in government expenditure on health due to a strengthened tax base was most important in UMICs. For high-income countries, where economic growth was relatively slower and tax bases were already strong, the largest driver of growth in government expenditure on health from domestic sources was reallocation of the government budget towards health. Conclusions: Given these findings from 2000-2015, discussions about a government's ability to reallocate to health from its overall budget need to be evidence based and pragmatic.  Dialogue on domestic resource mobilization needs to emphasize overall economic growth and growth in the tax base as well as the share of health in the government budget.

Health systems' capacity to provide post-abortion care: a multicountry analysis using signal functions

BACKGROUND

Abortion-related mortality is one of the main causes of maternal mortality worldwide. Laws often restrict the provision of safe abortion care, yet post-abortion care is a service that all countries have committed to provide to manage abortion complications. There is minimal evidence on the capacity of national health systems to provide post-abortion care.

METHODS

We did a multicountry analysis of data from nationally representative Service Provision Assessment surveys done between 2007 to 2017 in ten countries across three regions (Bangladesh, Haiti, Kenya, Malawi, Namibia, Nepal, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda). Data were available for all ten countries from 2007 to 2015. We included facilities offering childbirth delivery services and classified facilities as primary or referral level. We measured signal functions for post-abortion care (the availability of key equipment and ability to perform services) to assess the proportion of primary-level and referral-level facilities in each country with the capacity to provide basic and comprehensive post-abortion care, respectively. We calculated the proportion of facilities providing each post-abortion care signal function to examine specific gaps in service provision.

FINDINGS

There are critical gaps in the provision of post-abortion care at all facilities that offer delivery services. In seven (70%) of ten countries, less than 10% of primary-level facilities could provide basic post-abortion care, and in eight (80%) of ten countries less than 40% of referral-level facilities could provide comprehensive post-abortion care. In no country could all referral facilities provide all the essential services that need to be included in basic post-abortion care.

INTERPRETATION

The capacity of primary-level and referral-level health facilities to provide basic and comprehensive post-abortion care, respectively, is low. The results highlight the gap between political commitments to address the consequences of unsafe abortion and the capacity of health systems to provide post-abortion care. Increasing the provision of good-quality post-abortion care is essential to reduce the level of abortion-related morbidity and mortality.

FUNDING

UK Aid from the UK Government.

The UCL-Lancet Commission on Migration and Health: the health of a world on the move

With one billion people on the move or having moved in 2018, migration is a global reality, which has also become a political lightning rod. Although estimates indicate that the majority of global migration occurs within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the most prominent dialogue focuses almost exclusively on migration from LMICs to high-income countries (HICs). Nowadays, populist discourse demonises the very same individuals who uphold economies, bolster social services, and contribute to health services in both origin and destination locations. Those in positions of political and economic power continue to restrict or publicly condemn migration to promote their own interests. Meanwhile nationalist movements assert so-called cultural sovereignty by delineating an us versus them rhetoric, creating a moral emergency.

In response to these issues, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Migration and Health was convened to articulate evidence-based approaches to inform public discourse and policy. The Commission undertook analyses and consulted widely, with diverse international evidence and expertise spanning sociology, politics, public health science, law, humanitarianism, and anthropology. The result of this work is a report that aims to be a call to action for civil society, health leaders, academics, and policy makers to maximise the benefits and reduce the costs of migration on health locally and globally. The outputs of our work relate to five overarching goals that we thread throughout the report.

First, we provide the latest evidence on migration and health outcomes. This evidence challenges common myths and highlights the diversity, dynamics, and benefits of modern migration and how it relates to population and individual health. Migrants generally contribute more to the wealth of host societies than they cost. Our Article shows that international migrants in HICs have, on average, lower mortality than the host country population. However, increased morbidity was found for some conditions and among certain subgroups of migrants, (eg, increased rates of mental illness in victims of trafficking and people fleeing conflict) and in populations left behind in the location of origin. Currently, in 2018, the full range of migrants’ health needs are difficult to assess because of poor quality data. We know very little, for example, about the health of undocumented migrants, people with disabilities, or lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, or intersex (LGBTI) individuals who migrate or who are unable to move.

Second, we examine multisector determinants of health and consider the implication of the current sector-siloed approaches. The health of people who migrate depends greatly on structural and political factors that determine the impetus for migration, the conditions of their journey, and their destination. Discrimination, gender inequalities, and exclusion from health and social services repeatedly emerge as negative health influences for migrants that require cross-sector responses.

Third, we critically review key challenges to healthy migration. Population mobility provides economic, social, and cultural dividends for those who migrate and their host communities. Furthermore, the right to the highest attainable standard of health, regardless of location or migration status, is enshrined in numerous human rights instruments. However, national sovereignty concerns overshadow these benefits and legal norms. Attention to migration focuses largely on security concerns. When there is conjoining of the words health and migration, it is either focused on small subsets of society and policy, or negatively construed. International agreements, such as the UN Global Compact for Migration and the UN Global Compact on Refugees, represent an opportunity to ensure that international solidarity, unity of intent, and our shared humanity triumphs over nationalist and exclusionary policies, leading to concrete actions to protect the health of migrants.

Fourth, we examine equity in access to health and health services and offer evidence-based solutions to improve the health of migrants. Migrants should be explicitly included in universal health coverage commitments. Ultimately, the cost of failing to be health-inclusive could be more expensive to national economies, health security, and global health than the modest investments required.

Finally, we look ahead to outline how our evidence can contribute to synergistic and equitable health, social, and economic policies, and feasible strategies to inform and inspire action by migrants, policy makers, and civil society. We conclude that migration should be treated as a central feature of 21st century health and development. Commitments to the health of migrating populations should be considered across all Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and in the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration and Global Compact on Refugees. This Commission offers recommendations that view population mobility as an asset to global health by showing the meaning and reality of good health for all. We present four key messages that provide a focus for future action.

Funding and services needed to achieve universal health coverage: applications of global, regional, and national estimates of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions from 1990 to 2016, and unit costs from 1995 to 2016

BACKGROUND

To inform plans to achieve universal health coverage (UHC), we estimated utilisation and unit cost of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions, did a decomposition analysis of utilisation, and estimated additional services and funds needed to meet a UHC standard for utilisation.

METHODS

We collated 1175 country-years of outpatient data on utilisation from 130 countries and 2068 country-years of inpatient data from 128 countries. We did meta-regression analyses of annual visits and admissions per capita by sex, age, location, and year with DisMod-MR, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We decomposed changes in total number of services from 1990 to 2016. We used data from 795 National Health Accounts to estimate shares of outpatient and inpatient services in total health expenditure by location and year and estimated unit costs as expenditure divided by utilisation. We identified standards of utilisation per disability-adjusted life-year and estimated additional services and funds needed.

FINDINGS

In 2016, the global age-standardised outpatient utilisation rate was 5·42 visits (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4·88-5·99) per capita and the inpatient utilisation rate was 0·10 admissions (0·09-0·11) per capita. Globally, 39·35 billion (95% UI 35·38-43·58) visits and 0·71 billion (0·65-0·77) admissions were provided in 2016. Of the 58·65% increase in visits since 1990, population growth accounted for 42·95%, population ageing for 8·09%, and higher utilisation rates for 7·63%; results for the 67·96% increase in admissions were 44·33% from population growth, 9·99% from population ageing, and 13·55% from increases in utilisation rates. 2016 unit cost estimates (in 2017 international dollars [I$]) ranged from I$2 to I$478 for visits and from I$87 to I$22 543 for admissions. The annual cost of 8·20 billion (6·24-9·95) additional visits and 0·28 billion (0·25-0·30) admissions in low-income and lower-middle income countries in 2016 was I$503·12 billion (404·35-605·98) or US$158·10 billion (126·58-189·67).

INTERPRETATION

UHC plans can be based on utilisation and unit costs of current health systems and guided by standards of utilisation of outpatient visits and inpatient admissions that achieve the highest coverage of personal health services at the lowest cost.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The challenges of the family physician policy in Iran: a systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative researches

BACKGROUND

A good level of health requires the establishment of primary health care. Family physician policy (FPP) is probably one of such initiatives, which enables societies attaining the universal health coverage.

OBJECTIVE

The present study is the first systematic review and meta-synthesis that seeks to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges for FPP in Iran.

METHOD

Several international scholarly databases (namely, ISI/Web of Sciences, PubMed/MEDLINE via Ovid, Embase, PsycINFO, Scopus and CINAHL via EBSCO), as well as three Iranian databases [MagIran, Irandoc and Scientific Information Database (SID) databases], were mined from January 2006 to December 2017. The Noblit & Hare approach was used to analyse the selected studies.

RESULTS

Based on the study inclusion criteria, seven studies were retained. Initially, 133 codes were identified. In the second step, two of the authors examined the codes and merged themes based on their similarities and shared meaning. New codes were created through discussion. In the next and final step, eight themes emerged, namely, (i) financing; (ii) motivational factors; (iii) education; (iv) referral system; (v) performance evaluation; (vi) problems with health policy; (vii) health information system; and (viii) culture-building for proper policy implementation.

CONCLUSION

Although more than 10 years have passed since the implementation of FPP in Iran, and despite its positive effects on health, there are still challenges in implementing this policy, which makes it difficult to achieve its objectives. Health decision- and policy-makers in Iran should address these challenges and use all available capacities to face them.

Methods to improve quality performance at scale in lower- and middle-income countries

Universal Health Coverage is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets. But coverage without quality health services limits benefits to populations. Performance-based financing programs (PBF) use strategic purchasing of services to expand coverage and promote quality by measuring quality and rewarding good performance. The widespread presence of PBF programs in lower and middle-income countries provide an opportunity to introduce and test new approaches for measuring and improving quality at scale. This article describes four approaches to improve quality of health services at scale in PBF programs. These approaches looked at structural and process measures of quality as well as outcome measures like patient satisfaction. Three types of tools were used in these approaches: clinical vignettes, competency tests and patient satisfaction surveys. Specific tools within each of the approaches are used in Kyrgyzstan, Cambodia, Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo.

What Are Governments Spending on Health in East and Southern Africa?

Progress toward universal health care (UHC) in Africa will require sustained increases in public spending on health and reduced reliance on out-of-pocket financing. This article reviews trends and patterns of government spending in the East and Southern Africa regions and points out methodological challenges with interpreting data from the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Health Expenditure Database (GHED) and other sources. Government expenditure for health has increased for most countries, albeit at a slower rate than gross domestic product (GDP). In most countries there has been a prioritization away from health in government budgets, putting the onus on the private sector and donors to fill the gap. Donor support is important in the region but reliance on external spending is not consistent with countries' stated ambitions of universal health coverage. A number of methodological challenges with estimating health expenditures are identified. Capturing health expenditures adequately across agencies and levels of decentralization can be challenging, and off-budget funds and arrears are evasive. Measurement error can be significant because actual expenditure information can be hard to come by and is often dated and unreliable. Furthermore, how external financing is captured will affect government health expenditure estimates. These factors have contributed to differences in expenditure estimates between the WHO GHED and country-specific public expenditure reviews and complicate interpretation. The article concludes that it is critical to strengthen national data capacity and international efforts to promote quality and consistency of data. The GHED is an invaluable resource for monitoring and benchmarking health expenditures. It is best used in combination with deep dive country expenditure assessments.

The global tuberculosis epidemic and progress in care, prevention, and research: an overview in year 3 of the End TB era

Tuberculosis is the number one cause of death from infectious disease globally and drug-resistant forms of the disease are a major risk to global health security. On the occasion of World Tuberculosis Day (March 24, 2018), we provide an up-to-date review of the status of the tuberculosis epidemic, recommended diagnostics, drug treatments and vaccines, progress in delivery of care and prevention, progress in research and development, and actions needed to accelerate progress. This Review is presented in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's End TB Strategy, which share the aim of ending the global tuberculosis epidemic. In 2016, globally there were an estimated 10·4 million new cases of tuberculosis, and 600 000 new cases with resistance to rifampicin (the most powerful first-line drug). All countries and age groups are affected by tuberculosis, but most cases (90%) in 2016 were in adults, and almost two-thirds were accounted for by seven countries: India, Indonesia, China, Philippines, Pakistan, South Africa, and Nigeria. The sex ratio (male to female) was 1·9 and 10% of patients with newly diagnosed tuberculosis were also HIV-positive. There were 1·7 million deaths from tuberculosis in 2016, including 0·4 million deaths among people co-infected with HIV (officially classified as deaths caused by HIV/AIDS). Progress in care and prevention means that the global mortality rate (deaths per 100 000 people per year) is decreasing by 3·4% per year and incidence (new cases per 100 000 people per year) is decreasing by 1·9% per year. From 2000 to 2016, the annual global number of tuberculosis deaths decreased by 24% and the mortality rate declined by 37%. Worldwide, an estimated 53 million deaths were averted through successful treatment. Nonetheless, major gaps in care and prevention remain. For example, the 6·3 million new cases of tuberculosis reported globally in 2016 represented only 61% of the estimated incidence; only one in five of the estimated number of people with drug-resistant tuberculosis was enrolled in treatment. Pipelines for new diagnostics, drugs, and vaccines are progressing, but slowly. Actions needed to accelerate progress towards global milestones and targets for reductions in the burden of tuberculosis disease set for 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035 include closing coverage gaps in testing, reporting of cases, and overall access to health care, especially in countries that account for the largest share of the global gap; multisectoral efforts to reduce prevalence of major risk factors for infection and disease; and increased investment in research and development.

Pushing the envelope through the Global Financing Facility: potential impact of mobilising additional support to scale-up life-saving interventions for women, children and adolescents in 50 high-burden countries

Introduction

The Global Financing Facility (GFF) was launched to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through scaled and sustainable financing for Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Nutrition (RMNCAH-N) outcomes. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of increased resources available to improve RMNCAH-N outcomes, from expanding and scaling up GFF support in 50 high-burden countries.

Methods

The potential impact of GFF was estimated for the period 2017–2030. First, two scenarios were constructed to reflect conservative and ambitious assumptions around resources that could be mobilised by the GFF model, based on GFF Trust Fund resources of US$2.6  billion. Next, GFF impact was estimated by scaling up coverage of prioritised RMNCAH-N interventions under these resource scenarios. Resource availability was projected using an Excel-based model and health impacts and costs were estimated using the Lives Saved Tool (V.5.69 b9).

Results

We estimate that the GFF partnership could collectively mobilise US$50–75  billion of additional funds for expanding delivery of life-saving health and nutrition interventions to reach coverage of at least 70% for most interventions by 2030. This could avert 34.7  million deaths—including preventable deaths of mothers, newborns, children and stillbirths—compared with flatlined coverage, or 12.4  million deaths compared with continuation of historic trends. Under-five and neonatal mortality rates are estimated to decrease by 35% and 34%, respectively, and stillbirths by 33%.

Conclusion

The GFF partnership through country- contextualised prioritisation and innovative financing could go a long way in increasing spending on RMNCAH-N and closing the existing resource gap. Although not all countries will reach the SDGs by relying on gains from the GFF platform alone, the GFF provides countries with an opportunity to significantly improve RMNCAH-N outcomes through achievable, well-directed changes in resource allocation.

Building a Workforce for Future Health Systems: Reflections from Health Policy and Systems Research

INTRODUCTION

The era of the Sustainable Development Goals calls for multidisciplinary research and intersectoral approaches to addressing health challenges. This presents a unique opportunity for multidisciplinary fields concerned with complex systems. Those working in system-oriented fields such as health policy and systems research (HPSR) and health services research must be forward-thinking in optimizing their collective ability to address these global challenges.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this commentary was to share reflections on challenges and strategies in managing the HPSR workforce in order to stimulate dialogue and cross-learning across similar fields.

STRATEGIES/FINDINGS

The following strategies are discussed here: definitional clarity of expected competencies and coordination across HPS researchers, national investment in HPSR, institutional capacity for coproduction of knowledge across different types of actors, and participatory leadership.

CONCLUSIONS

Creative approaches in training, financing, developing, and leading the diverse workforce required to strengthen health systems can pave the way for its full-time and part-time members to work together.

Sector-wide or disease-specific? Implications of trends in development assistance for health for the SDG era

The record of the Millennium Development Goals broadly reflects the trade-offs of disease-specific financing: substantial progress in particular areas, facilitated by time-bound targets that are easy to measure and communicate, which shifted attention and resources away from other areas, masked inequalities and exacerbated fragmentation. In many ways, the Sustainable Development Goals reflect a profound shift towards a more holistic, system-wide approach. To inform responses to this shift, this article builds upon existing work on aggregate trends in donor financing, bringing together what have largely been disparate analyses of sector-wide and disease-specific financing approaches. Looking across the last 26 years, the article examines how international donors have allocated development assistance for health (DAH) between these two approaches and how attempts to bridge them have fared in practice. Since 1990, DAH has overwhelmingly favoured disease-specific earmarks over health sector support, with the latter peaking in 1998. Attempts to integrate system strengthening elements into disease-specific funding mechanisms have varied by disease, and more integrated funding platforms have failed to gain traction. Health sector support largely remains an unfulfilled promise: proportionately low amounts (albeit absolute increases) which have been inconsistently allocated, and the overall approach inconsistently applied in practice. Thus, the expansive orientation of the Sustainable Development Goals runs counter to trends over the last several decades. Financing proposals and efforts to adapt global health institutions must acknowledge and account for the persistent challenges in the financing and implementation of integrated, cross-sector policies. National and subnational experimentation may offer alternatives within and beyond the health sector.

What prevents midwifery quality care in Bangladesh? A focus group enquiry with midwifery students

BACKGROUND

With professional midwives being introduced in Bangladesh in 2013, the aim of this study was to describe midwifery students perceptions on midwives' realities in Bangladesh, based on their own experiences.

METHOD

Data were collected through 14 focus group discussions that included a total of 67 third-year diploma midwifery students at public nursing institutes/colleges in different parts of Bangladesh. Data were analyzed deductively using an analytical framework identifying social, professional and economical barriers to the provision of quality care by midwifery personnel.

RESULTS

The social barriers preventing midwifery quality care falls outside the parameters of Bangladeshi cultural norms that have been shaped by beliefs associated with religion, society, and gender norms. This puts midwives in a vulnerable position due to cultural prejudice. Professional barriers include heavy workloads with a shortage of staff who were not utilized to their full capacity within the health system. The reason for this was a lack of recognition in the medical hierarchy, leaving midwives with low levels of autonomy. Economical barriers were reflected by lack of supplies and hospital beds, midwives earning only low and/or irregular salaries, a lack of opportunities for recreation, and personal insecurity related to lack of housing and transportation.

CONCLUSION

Without adequate support for midwives, to strengthen their self-confidence through education and through continuous professional and economic development, little can be achieved in terms of improving quality care of women during the period around early and late pregnancy including childbirth.The findings can be used for discussions aimed to mobilize a midwifery workforce across the continuum of care to deliver quality reproductive health care services. No matter how much adequate support is provided to midwives, to strengthen their self-confidence through education, continuous professional and economic development, addressing the social barriers is a prerequisite for provision of quality care.

Developing institutions for cancer care in low-income and middle-income countries: from cancer units to comprehensive cancer centres

Global cancer centres operate across different sizes, scales, and ecosystems. Understanding the essential aspects of the creation, organisation, accreditation, and activities within these settings is crucial for developing an affordable, equitable, and quality cancer care, research, and education system. Robust guidelines are scarce for cancer units, cancer centres, and comprehensive cancer centres in low-income and middle-income countries. However, some robust examples of the delivery of complex cancer care in centres in emerging economies are available. Although it is impossible to create an optimal system to fit the unique needs of all countries for the delivery of cancer care, we summarise what has been published about the development and management of cancer centres in low-income and middle-income countries so far and highlight the need for clinical and political leadership.

Newborn health benefits or financial risk protection? An ethical analysis of a real-life dilemma in a setting without universal health coverage

INTRODUCTION

High healthcare costs make illness precarious for both patients and their families' economic situation. Despite the recent focus on the interconnection between health and financial risk at the systemic level, the ethical conflict between concerns for potential health benefits and financial risk protection at the household level in a low-income setting is less understood.

METHODS

Using a seven-step ethical analysis, we examine a real-life dilemma faced by families and health workers at the micro level in Ethiopia and analyse the acceptability of limiting treatment for an ill newborn to protect against financial risk. We assess available evidence and ethical issues at stake and discuss the dilemma with respect to three priority setting criteria: health maximisation, priority to the worse-off and financial risk protection.

RESULTS

Giving priority to health maximisation and extra priority to the worse-off suggests, in this particular case, that limiting treatment is not acceptable even if the total well-being gain from reduced financial risk is taken into account. Our conclusion depends on the facts of the case and the relative weight assigned to these criteria. However, there are problematic aspects with the premise of this dilemma. The most affected parties-the newborn, family members and health worker-cannot make free choices about whether to limit treatment or not, and we thereby accept deprivations of people's substantive freedoms.

CONCLUSION

In settings where healthcare is financed largely out-of-pocket, families and health workers face tragic trade-offs. As countries move towards universal health coverage, financial risk protection for high-priority services is necessary to promote fairness, improve health and reduce poverty.

The Sustainable Development Goals: Contextualizing Africa's Economic and Health Landscape

The sustainable development goals (SDGs) encompass 17 goals with targets and indicators, collectively striving to improve national, regional, continental, and global development. SDG 8 strives for improved and sustainable economic growth. Africa's population is estimated to increase markedly and rapidly over the next few decades. The African demographic dividend presents opportunities to be harnessed, but several socioeconomic challenges exist that may constrain progress for achieving the SDGs. Poverty and inequality are pervasive in Africa and constrain economic and health gains. SDG 3 aims for good health and well-being for all ages and has 13 targets linked to 26 indicators. Collectively, SDG 3 targets aim to improve health outcomes by reducing mortality, ending epidemics, and preventing diseases to ensure affordable and quality healthcare access for all. The dynamic African health landscape and scarcity of healthcare human capital also present challenges for advancing SDG 3. The implementation of the SDGs presents major and complex challenges but ultimately yields rewards. Advancement across all SDG 3 targets is necessary for the benefit of healthier global citizens.

Interactions between life expectancy and the incidence and mortality rates of cancer in China: a population-based cluster analysis

BACKGROUND

The relationship between cancer and life expectancy is well established in both developed and developing countries. China is a vast country with significant geographical differences in population structure and healthcare, and thus provides a unique opportunity to analyze the complex relationship between life expectancy and cancer incidence and mortality rates.

METHODS

Cancer data were extracted for a total of 255 units (cities or counties) from the 2013 National Central Cancer Registry. Life expectancy data at the unit level were obtained from the National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Linear regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between life expectancy and crude incidence and mortality rates of cancer. In a separate analysis, life expectancy was rated as low (< 76.0 years), middle (76-80 years), or high (> 80 years).

RESULTS

Overall, the cancer incidence and mortality rates positively correlated with life expectancy in both sexes (R at 0.37 and 0.50, P < 0.001). The correlation was significant for the following cancers: lung, colorectal, prostate, bladder and pancreas, as well as for lymphoma in men (R 0.36-0.58, P < 0.001), lung, breast, colorectal, thyroid, uterus, and ovary in women (R 0.18-0.51, P < 0.001). We failed to observe an association between upper gastrointestinal cancer and life expectancy. The number of cities/counties with low, middle and high life expectancy levels were 110, 101 and 44, respectively. The highest age-standardized cancer incidence rate was observed in areas with a high life expectancy level (192.83/100,000). The highest age-standardized mortality rate was in areas with the lowest life expectancy (118.44/100,000). Cancers of the stomach, liver and esophagus are major cancer types in areas with low and middle life expectancy. In contrast, areas with high life expectancy had high incidence and mortality rates of colorectal cancer, breast cancer in women and prostate cancer in men.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer life expectancy is associated with higher overall cancer incidence and mortality in China. The cancer pattern also varies substantially across areas with different life expectancy levels. Life expectancy levels must be considered when developing strategies to prevent and treat cancers.

Banking for health: opportunities in cooperation between banking and health applying innovation from other sectors

The annual funding need for global health SDG targets is estimated by WHO at US$134 billion per year, rising to US$274-$371bn by 2030. This paper examines the challenge of making sustainable investment structures in global health more attractive for mainstream financial markets. The objective is a framework for targeted future debate with financial sector actors. Four case studies of innovative sustainable investment mechanisms are analysed, elaborating potential transfer of green and impact investment models in order to channel additional private sector funds to health. To increase private sector involvement, profit must accrue to providers of finance. The paper shows how health criteria can be incorporated into structures, which create triple bottom line return opportunities. Health infrastructure projects based on risk sharing models with governments or multilateral agencies could use long-term funding, with better credit ratings and lower cost of capital. Outcomes based investment, similar to green or social impact bonds, with third-party certification of measurable health impact, satisfy the private sector need for return with social interest objectives. Responsible investment could expand by adding a ‘health’ (H) criterion to the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) framework, implementing ESG+H for mainstream investment screening. These models are scalable, satisfy the need to dedicate funds to health and incorporate consistent critical success metrics. The conclusion finds that strong legal frameworks and exploration of fiscal incentives will be critical next steps to facilitate scaling up and broadening of interest from private sector financial actors. The impact these investments have on overall population health is a positive externality of sustainable global health investment.

Investing in non-communicable disease prevention and management to advance the Sustainable Development Goals

Reduction of the non-communicable disease (NCD) burden is a global development imperative. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 includes target 3·4 to reduce premature NCD mortality by a third by 2030. Progress on SDG target 3·4 will have a central role in determining the success of at least nine SDGs. A strengthened effort across multiple sectors with effective economic tools, such as price policies and insurance, is necessary. NCDs are heavily clustered in people with low socioeconomic status and are an important cause of medical impoverishment. They thereby exacerbate economic inequities within societies. As such, NCDs are a barrier to achieving SDG 1, SDG 2, SDG 4, SDG 5, and SDG 10. Productivity gains from preventing and managing NCDs will contribute to SDG 8. SDG 11 and SDG 12 offer clear opportunities to reduce the NCD burden and to create sustainable and healthy cities.

Global Economic Burden of Diabetes in Adults: Projections From 2015 to 2030

OBJECTIVE

Despite the importance of diabetes for global health, the future economic consequences of the disease remain opaque. We forecast the full global costs of diabetes in adults through the year 2030 and predict the economic consequences of diabetes if global targets under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and World Health Organization Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases 2013-2020 are met.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We modeled the absolute and gross domestic product (GDP)-relative economic burden of diabetes in individuals aged 20-79 years using epidemiological and demographic data, as well as recent GDP forecasts for 180 countries. We assumed three scenarios: prevalence and mortality 1) increased only with urbanization and population aging (baseline scenario), 2) increased in line with previous trends (past trends scenario), and 3) achieved global targets (target scenario).

RESULTS

The absolute global economic burden will increase from U.S. $1.3 trillion (95% CI 1.3-1.4) in 2015 to $2.2 trillion (2.2-2.3) in the baseline, $2.5 trillion (2.4-2.6) in the past trends, and $2.1 trillion (2.1-2.2) in the target scenarios by 2030. This translates to an increase in costs as a share of global GDP from 1.8% (1.7-1.9) in 2015 to a maximum of 2.2% (2.1-2.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The global costs of diabetes and its consequences are large and will substantially increase by 2030. Even if countries meet international targets, the global economic burden will not decrease. Policy makers need to take urgent action to prepare health and social security systems to mitigate the effects of diabetes.

Status and drivers of maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health in the Islamic world: a comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period saw dramatic gains in health goals MDG 4 and MDG 5 for improving child and maternal health. However, many Muslim countries in the south Asian, Middle Eastern, and African regions lagged behind. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the status of, progress in, and key determinants of reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in Muslim majority countries (MMCs). The specific objectives were to understand the current status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in MMCs, and the determinants of child survival among the least developed countries among the MMCs; to explore differences in outcomes and the key contextual determinants of health between MMCs and non-MMCs; and to understand the health service coverage and contextual determinants that differ between best and poor or moderate performing MMCs.

METHODS

In this country-level ecological study, we examined data from between 1990 and 2015 from multiple publicly available data repositories. We examined 47 MMCs, of which 26 were among the 75 high-burden Countdown to 2015 countries. These 26 MMCs were compared with 48 non-Muslim Countdown countries. We also examined characteristics of the eight best performing MMCs that had accelerated improvement in child survival (ie, that reached their MDG 4 targets). We estimated adolescent, maternal, under-5, and newborn mortality, and stillbirths, and the causes of death, essential interventions coverage, and contextual determinants for all MMCs and comparative groups using standardised methods. We also did a hierarchical multivariable analysis of determinants of under-5 mortality and newborn mortality in low-income and middle-income MMCs.

FINDINGS

Despite notable reductions between 1990 and 2015, MMCs compared with a global esimate of all countries including MMCs had higher mortality rates, and MMCs relative to non-MMCs within Countdown countries also performed worse. Coverage of essential interventions across the continuum of care was on average lower among MMCs, especially for indicators of reproductive health, prenatal care, delivery, and labour, and childhood vaccines. Outcomes within MMCs for mortality and many reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health indicators varied considerably. Structural and contextual factors, especially state governance, conflict, and women and girl's empowerment indicators, were significantly worse in MMCs compared with non-MMCs within the high-burden Countdown countries, and were shown to be strongly associated with child and newborn mortality within low-income and middle-income MMCs. In adjusted hierarchical models, among other factors, under-5 mortality in MMCs increased with more refugees originating from a country (β=23·67, p=0·0116), and decreased with better political stability or absence of terrorism (β=-0·99, p=0·0285), greater political rights or government effectiveness (β=-1·17, p<0·0001), improvements in log gross national income per capita (β=-4·44, p<0·0001), higher total adult literacy (β=-1·69, p<0·0001), higher female adult literacy (β=-0·97, p<0·0001), and greater female to male enrolment in secondary school (β=-16·1, p<0·0001). The best performing MMCs were Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Niger, and Senegal, which had higher coverage of family planning interventions and newborn or child vaccinations, and excelled in many of the above contextual determinants when compared with moderate or poorly performing MMCs.

INTERPRETATION

The status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health is heterogeneous among MMCs, with little indication that religion and its practice affects outcomes systemically. Some Islamic countries such as Niger and Bangladesh have made great progress, despite poverty. Key findings from this study have policy and programmatic implications that could be prioritised by national heads of state and policy makers, development partners, funders, and the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation to scale up and improve these health outcomes in Muslim countries in the post-2015 era.

FUNDING

US Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival, the Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, and the Aga Khan University.

The health, poverty, and financial consequences of a cigarette price increase among 500 million male smokers in 13 middle income countries: compartmental model study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of a 50% increase in market prices of cigarettes on health, poverty, and financial protection.

DESIGN

Compartmental model study.

SETTING

13 middle income countries, totalling two billion men.

PARTICIPANTS

500 million male smokers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Life years gained, averted treatment costs, number of men avoiding catastrophic healthcare expenditures and poverty, and additional tax revenue by income group.

RESULTS

A 50% increase in cigarette prices would lead to about 450 million years of life gained across the 13 countries from smoking cessation, with half of these in China. Across all countries, men in the bottom income group (poorest 20% of the population) would gain 6.7 times more life years than men in the top income group (richest 20% of the population; 155 v 23 million). The average life years gained from cessation for each smoker in the bottom income group was 5.1 times that of the top group (1.46 v 0.23 years). Of the $157bn (£113bn; €127bn) in averted treatment costs, the bottom income group would avert 4.6 times more costs than the top income group ($46bn v $10bn). About 15.5 million men would avoid catastrophic health expenditures in a subset of seven countries without universal health coverage. As result, 8.8 million men, half of them in the bottom income group, would avoid falling below the World Bank definition of extreme poverty. These 8.8 million men constitute 2.4% of people living in extreme poverty in these countries. In contrast, the top income group would pay twice as much as the bottom income group of the $122bn additional tax collected. Overall, the bottom income group would get 31% of the life years saved and 29% each of the averted disease costs and averted catastrophic health expenditures, while paying only 10% of the additional taxes.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher prices of cigarettes provide more health and financial gains to the poorest 20% than to the richest 20% of the population. Higher excise taxes support the targets of the sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases and poverty, and provides financial protection against illness.

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

How many lives are at stake? Assessing 2030 sustainable development goal trajectories for maternal and child health

John W McArthur, Krista Rasmussen, and Gavin Yamey examine how far countries have to go to meet the targets for maternal and child mortality and what needs to be done to help them