Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe

The response of culturally important plants to experimental warming and clipping in Pakistan Himalayas

The relative effects of climate warming with grazing on medicinally important plants are not fully understood in Hindukush-Himalaya (HKH) region. Therefore, we combined the indigenous knowledge about culturally important therapeutic plants and climate change with experimental warming (open-top chambers) and manual clipping (simulated grazing effect) and compared the relative difference on aboveground biomass and percent cover of plant species at five alpine meadow sites on an elevation gradient (4696 m-3346 m) from 2016-2018. Experimental warming increased biomass and percent cover throughout the experiment. However, the interactive treatment effect (warming x clipping) was significant on biomass but not on percent cover. These responses were taxa specific. Warming induced an increase of 1 ± 0.6% in Bistorta officinalis percent cover while for Poa alpina it was 18.7 ± 4.9%. Contrastingly, clipping had a marginally significant effect in reducing the biomass and cover of all plant species. Clipping treatment reduced vegetation cover & biomass by 2.3% and 6.26%, respectively, but that was not significant due to the high variability among taxa response at different sites. It was found that clipping decreased the effects of warming in interactive plots. Thus, warming may increase the availability of therapeutic plants for indigenous people while overgrazing would have deteriorating effects locally. The findings of this research illustrate that vegetation sensitivity to warming and overgrazing is likely to affect man-environment relationships, and traditional knowledge on a regional scale.

Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America

Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.

Multidimensional analysis of global climate change: a review

Even though climate change involves much more than warming, it is the name given to a set of physical phenomena. It is a long-term change in weather patterns that characterises different regions of the world. The warming effect in the earth's atmosphere has dramatically increased through the influence of some heat-taping gases emitted by various human activities, especially fossil fuel burning. The more the input of such gases, the more will be the warming effect in the coming times. Global climate change is already visible in various parts of the larger ecosystems like forests, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture; however, it is now also influencing the supply of freshwater, human health, and well-being. This paper reviews climate change drivers, its global scenario, major global events, and assessing climate change impacts. The most daunting problem of economic and ecological risks, along with the threats to humanity, is also discussed. The paper further reviews the species' vulnerability to climate change and the heat waves and human migration vis-à-vis climate change. Climate change politics and coverage of climate change episodes in mass media is the special focus of this review that concludes with a few mitigation measures.

Predicting range shifts of three endangered endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh floristic province under global change

Endemic plants of the Khorassan-Kopet Dagh (KK) floristic province in northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northwestern Afghanistan are often rare and range-restricted. Because of these ranges, plants in the KK are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Species distribution modelling (SDM) can be used to assess the vulnerability of species under climate change. Here, we evaluated range size changes for three (critically) endangered endemic species that grow at various elevations (Nepeta binaloudensis, Phlomoides binaludensis, and Euphorbia ferdowsiana) using species distribution modelling. Using the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and two Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), we predicted potential current and future (2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for each species. The ensemble model of nine algorithms was used to perform this prediction. Our results indicate that while two of species investigated would benefit from range expansion in the future, P. binaludensis will experience range contraction. The range of E. ferdowsiana will remain limited to the Binalood mountains, but the other species will have suitable habitats in mountain ranges across the KK. Using management efforts (such as fencing) with a focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales in the KK is necessary to conserve these species. Additionally, assisted migration among different mountains in the KK would be beneficial to conserve these plants. For E. ferdowsiana, genetic diversity storage employing seed banks and botanical garden preservation should be considered.

Habitat-islands in the coastal Atacama Desert: loss of functional redundancy, but not of functional diversity, with decreased precipitation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Aridity is increasing in many regions of the world, but microclimatic conditions may buffer plant communities from the direct effects of decreased precipitation, creating habitat islands. However, reduced precipitation can also impact these communities indirectly by decreasing the suitability of the surrounding habitat, thus limiting incoming propagules and increasing the chances of population decline and species loss. We test whether decreased precipitation results in loss of species and functional diversity within habitat islands, evaluating in particular whether declines in species diversity and abundance are less likely to result in loss of functional diversity if species/individual loss is stochastic (i.e. independent of species/individual traits) and communities/populations are functionally redundant.

METHODS

Lomas communities are discrete plant communities embedded in the Atacama Desert, maintained by the microclimatic conditions created by fog. We recorded species and functional diversity in six Lomas communities along a 500 km long precipitation gradient in northern Chile. Functional traits were measured in 20 individuals per species, in those species that accounted for approx. 75 % of the abundance at each site. We calculated functional diversity and functional redundancy of the community, and intraspecific functional variation.

KEY RESULTS

Decreased precipitation was associated with lower species diversity and lower species abundances. However, no traits or functional strategies increased or decreased consistently with precipitation, suggesting stochastic species/individual loss. Species with stress-tolerant strategies were predominant in all sites. Although species diversity decreased with decreasing precipitation, functional diversity remained unchanged. Lower functional redundancy in the drier sites suggests that mainly functionally redundant species were lost. Likewise, intraspecific functional variation was similar among communities, despite the lower species abundance in drier sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreased precipitation can impact habitat island communities indirectly by decreasing the suitability of the surrounding habitat. Our results support the idea that a stochastic loss of species/individuals from functionally redundant communities and populations does not result in loss of functional diversity.

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth’s surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth’s albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth’s climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth’s surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

Spatio-temporal analysis of Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (order: mantodea), with notes of its future status under climate change

Egyptian flower mantis Blepharopsis mendica (Order: Mantodea) is a widespread mantis species throughout the southwest Palearctic region. The ecological and geographical distribution of such interesting species is rarely known. So, through this work, habitat suitability models for its distribution through Egyptian territory were created using MaxEnt software from 90 occurrence records. One topographic (altitude) and eleven bioclimatic variables influencing the species distribution were selected to generate the models. The predicted distribution in Egypt was focused on the Delta, South Sinai, the north-eastern part of the country, and some areas in the west including Siwa Oasis. Temporal analysis between the two periods (1900-1961) and (1961-2017) show current reduction of this species distribution through Delta and its surrounding areas, may be due to urbanization. On the other hand, it increases in newly protected areas of South Sinai. Under the future climate change scenario, the MaxEnt model predicted the habitat gains for B. mendica in RCP 2.6 for 2070 and loss of habitat in RCP 8.5 for the same year. Our results can be used as a basis for conserving this species not only in Egypt, but also throughout the whole of its range, also, it show how the using of geo-information could help in studying animal ecology.

Global drought monitoring with big geospatial datasets using Google Earth Engine

Drought or dryness occurs due to the accumulative effect of certain climatological and hydrological variables over a certain period. Droughts are studied through numerically computed simple or compound indices. Vegetation condition index (VCI) is used for observing the change in vegetation that causes agricultural drought. Since the land surface temperature has minimum influence from cloud contamination and humidity in the air, so the temperature condition index (TCI) is used for studying the temperature change. Dryness or wetness of soil is a major indicator for agriculture and hydrological drought and for that purpose, the index, soil moisture condition index (SMCI), is computed. The deviation of precipitation from normal is a major cause for meteorological droughts and for that purpose, precipitation condition index (PCI) is computed. The years when the indices escalated the dryness situation to severe and extreme are pointed out in this research. Furthermore, an interactive dashboard is generated in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) for users to compute the said indices using country boundary, time period, and ecological mask of their choice: Agriculture Drought Monitoring. Apart from global results, three case studies of droughts (2002 in Australia, 2013 in Brazil, and 2019 in Thailand) computed via the dashboard are discussed in detail in this research.

Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming climate

The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of resident species by novel species, generating an 'extinction debt'. We established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of these processes to the local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, whereas novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels. Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at warming < 2 °C for two species. Projected population declines under both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some species under low levels of warming.

Integrating intraspecific variation in species distribution models by quantifying niche differentiation

Intraspecific variation provides insight into heterogeneous demography and adaptive history across distribution ranges of organisms. Most species distribution models assume that species respond to the environment as a single undifferentiated entity across their entire distribution. However, populations occupying different niches might differ in their ability to cope with climate change. Here, we assessed potential climatic niche differentiation at the species and subspecies levels and identified the palaeoclimatic range of three cold-adapted, low-dispersal beetle species: Carabus irregularis, Platycerus albisomni and Platycerus takakuwai. Our results showed that: (1) MaxEnt models incorporating information derived from intraspecific variation outperformed the species-level models; (2) tests of niche similarity revealed niche conservatism in most subspecies, except for two subspecies of C. irregularis, C. i. irregularis and C. i. bucephalus; and (3) historical predictions suggested substantial shifts within species ranges, with multiple glacial refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum. In conclusion, we recommend closer examination of intraspecific variation when predicting species distributions, in order to obtain more accurate generalizations regarding range shifts under climate change.

An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece

Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen's bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species' response to climate change. We predicted the species' future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species' potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.

Framework for Climate Change Adaptation of Agriculture and Forestry in Mediterranean Climate Regions

Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forestry landscapes to climate change remains challenging due to the need for integrating substantial amounts of information. This information ranges from climate scenarios, geographical site information, socio-economic data and several possible adaptation measures. Thus, there is an urgent need to have a framework that is capable of organizing adaptation strategies and measures in the agriculture and forestry sectors in Mediterranean climatic regions. Additionally, this framework should provide a cause effect relation with climate vulnerability to adequately support the development of adaptation planning at municipal and local (farm) level. In this context, we propose to test and evaluate a framework for climate adaptation of the agriculture and forestry sectors, based on the local causal-effect relation between adaptation strategies and measures and the level of vulnerability reduction achieved for Mediterranean areas. The framework was developed based on the combination of the DPSIR (Driving forces, Pressures, State, Impacts, Responses) and Vulnerability frameworks and reviewed 162 practical adaptation measures, further organized into strategies, complemented by a set of efficacy indicators. The framework was tested with 70 stakeholders in six stakeholder workshops for the planning of two farms and one municipal climate adaptation study, that are now in actual implementation and monitoring. The framework is composed by a set of eight adaptation strategies in which adaptation measures are clustered and assessed using efficacy indicators. In the evaluation of the adaptation framework, 96% of stakeholders considered its content as good or very good and 89% considered the final outcomes as good or very good. Finally, the framework was also used to assess and compare the adaptation strategies and measures presented in the climate adaptation plans of the three case studies. On average, 52.2% of the adaptation measures selected by the three case studies are dedicated to Ecosystem Resilience, 30.9% to Adaptive Capacity, 9.1% to Microclimates, 7.4% to Protection, and 0.3% to Mitigation strategies. This framework was considered effective in supporting adaptation planning at farm and municipal levels and useful to assess and compare adaptation plans in the frame of vulnerability reduction. Future studies can further contribute to support adaptation planning in these sectors by using, developing and streamlining this framework to additional and different socio-ecological contexts.

Prediction of Future Natural Suitable Areas for Rice under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Extreme temperature events, which are part of global climate change, are a growing threat to crop production, especially to such temperature-sensitive crops as rice. As a result, the traditional rice-growing areas are also likely to shift. The MaxEnt model was used for predicting the areas potentially suitable for rice in the short term (2016–2035) and in the medium term (2046–2065) and under two scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, namely representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 (the intermediate scenario) and RCP 8.5 (sometimes referred to as the worst-case scenario). The predictions, on verification, were seen to be highly accurate: the AUC—area under the curve—value of the MaxEnt model was > 0.85. The model made the following predictions. (1) Areas highly suitable for rice crops will continue to be concentrated mainly in the current major rice-production areas, and areas only marginally suitable will be concentrated mainly in the rainforest region. (2) Overall, although the current pattern of the distribution of such areas would remain more or less unchanged, their extent will mainly decrease in the subtropics but increase in the tropics and in high-latitude regions. (3) The extent of such areas will decrease in the short term but increase in the medium term.

Depth-Dependent Variables Shape Community Structure and Functionality in the Prince Edward Islands

Physicochemical variables limit and control the distribution of microbial communities in all environments. In the oceans, this may significantly influence functional processes such the consumption of dissolved organic material and nutrient sequestration. Yet, the relative contributions of physical factors, such as water mass variability and depth, on functional processes are underexplored. We assessed microbial community structure and functionality in the Prince Edward Islands (PEIs) using 16S rRNA gene amplicon analysis and extracellular enzymatic activity assays, respectively. We found that depth and nutrients substantially drive the structural patterns of bacteria and archaea in this region. Shifts from epipelagic to bathypelagic zones were linked to decreases in the activities of several extracellular enzymes. These extracellular enzymatic activities were positively correlated with several phyla including several Alphaproteobacteria (including members of the SAR 11 clade and order Rhodospirillales) and Cyanobacteria. We show that depth-dependent variables may be essential drivers of community structure and functionality in the PEIs.

The Consequences of Glacier Retreat Are Uneven Between Plant Species

Glaciers are retreating worldwide, exposing new terrain to colonization by plants. Recently-deglaciated terrains have been a subject of ecological studies for a long time, as they represent a unique natural model system for examining the effects of global warming associated with glacier retreat on biodiversity and the spatio-temporal dynamic of communities. However, we still have a limited understanding of how physical and biotic factors interactively influence species persistence and community dynamics after glacier retreat and glacier extinction. Using hierarchical joint species distribution models, we integrated data on plant species occurrence at fine spatial scale, spatio-temporal context, environmental conditions, leaf traits, and species-to-species associations in plant communities spanning 0 to c 5,000 years on average after glacier retreat. Our results show that plant diversity initially increases with glacier retreat, but ultimately decreases after glacier extinction. The 22% of plant species non-linearly respond to glacier retreat and will locally disappear with glacier extinction. At the local scale, soil carbon enrichment and reduction of physical (topographic) disturbance positively contribute to distribution patterns in 66% of the species, indicating a strong impact of community-level environmental conditions. Furthermore, positive and negative associations among species play a relevant role (up to 34% of variance) in driving the spatio-temporal dynamic of plant communities. Global warming prompts a shift from facilitation to competition: positive associations prevail among pioneer species, whereas negative associations are relatively more common among late species. This pattern suggests a role of facilitation for enhancing plant diversity in recently ice-free terrains and of competition for decreasing species persistence in late stages. Associated to that, species persisting the most show more “conservative” traits than species of concern. In summary, although plant diversity initially increases with glacier retreat, more than a fifth of plant species are substantially declining and will disappear with glacier extinction. Even for the “winners,” the “victory” is not to be taken for granted due to the negative impact of rising competition. Integrating survey data with hierarchical and network models can help to forecast biodiversity change and anticipate cascading effects of glacier retreat on mountain ecosystems. These effects include the reduction of ecosystem services and benefits to humans, including food production from the pioneer species Artemisia genipi.

The effect of edaphic factors on the distribution and abundance of ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Iran

The current study is aimed at investigating the effect of edaphic factors on the distribution and abundance of ants in different habitats of the central areas of Iran, while considering the vegetation. During 2018 to 2019, 20 stations from four habitats, including deserts, mountainous and submontane, plains and rural areas and urban areas, were selected. In general, a total of 311 sample units were collected from all the stations, out of which, 32 species belonging to 13 genera, nine tribes and three subfamilies were identified. The biological distribution and abundance of species were argued by computing the physical and chemical parameters of the soil, such as salinity, pH, total nitrogen, organic carbon, calcium and vegetation. The present study has demonstrated that the calcium content significantly affects the species richness of ants, although the impact of this element on various genera is different. We found that increasing in the abundance and richness of plant species has a positive impact on the abundance and richness of ants. Our results also show that some genera are meaningfully adaptable to a variety of habitats. In Kahak station, which is an urban habitat, with enormous diversity, 14 species were found, while in Sadrabad Historic Karvansara, a desert habitat, only Cataglyphis lividus (André, 1881) was collected. Cataglyphis bellicosus (Karavaiev, 1924), as the most abundant species, collected from 12 stations, was the most dominant species.

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto-Himalayan region under future climate change

High-mountain areas such as the Tibeto-Himalayan region (THR) host cold-adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate-niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960-1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061-2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.

Forest Fire Probability Mapping in Eastern Serbia: Logistic Regression versus Random Forest Method

Forest fire risk has increased globally during the previous decades. The Mediterranean region is traditionally the most at risk in Europe, but continental countries like Serbia have experienced significant economic and ecological losses due to forest fires. To prevent damage to forests and infrastructure, alongside other societal losses, it is necessary to create an effective protection system against fire, which minimizes the harmful effects. Forest fire probability mapping, as one of the basic tools in risk management, allows the allocation of resources for fire suppression, within a fire season, from zones with a lower risk to those under higher threat. Logistic regression (LR) has been used as a standard procedure in forest fire probability mapping, but in the last decade, machine learning methods such as fandom forest (RF) have become more frequent. The main goals in this study were to (i) determine the main explanatory variables for forest fire occurrence for both models, LR and RF, and (ii) map the probability of forest fire occurrence in Eastern Serbia based on LR and RF. The most important variable was drought code, followed by different anthropogenic features depending on the type of the model. The RF models demonstrated better overall predictive ability than LR models. The map produced may increase firefighting efficiency due to the early detection of forest fire and enable resources to be allocated in the eastern part of Serbia, which covers more than one-third of the country’s area.

Legacy effects of fish but not elevation influence lake ecosystem response to environmental change

How communities reorganize during climate change depends on the distribution of diversity within ecosystems and across landscapes. Understanding how environmental and evolutionary history constrain community resilience is critical to predicting shifts in future ecosystem function. The goal of our study was to understand how communities with different histories respond to environmental change with regard to shifts in elevation (temperature, nutrients) and introduced predators. We hypothesized that community responses to the environment would differ in ways consistent with local adaptation and initial trait structure. We transplanted plankton communities from lakes at different elevations with and without fish in the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California to mesocosms at different elevations with and without fish. We examined the relative importance of the historical and experimental environment on functional (size structure, effects on lower trophic levels), community (zooplankton composition, abundance and biomass) and population (individual species abundance and biomass) responses. Communities originating from different elevations produced similar biomass at each elevation despite differences in species composition; that is, the experimental elevation, but not the elevation of origin, had a strong effect on biomass. Conversely, we detected a legacy effect of predators on plankton in the fishless environment. Daphnia pulicaria that historically coexisted with fish reached greater biomass under fishless conditions than those from fishless lakes, resulting in greater zooplankton community biomass and larger average size. Therefore, trait variation among lake populations determined the top-down effects of fish predators. In contrast, phenotypic plasticity and local diversity were sufficient to maintain food web structure in response to changing environmental conditions associated with elevation.

Long-Term Responses of Mediterranean Mountain Forests to Climate Change, Fire and Human Activities in the Northern Apennines (Italy)

Fagus sylvatica (beech) dominates the montane forests of the Apennines and builds old-growth high-conservation value stands. However, recent severe drought-induced diebacks raise concern on the future persistence of these forests and of Southern European mesophilous woodlands overall, growing at their dry edge. To explore the history of Apennine beech-dominated forests, we draw on the multiproxy paleoecological record from Lago Verdarolo, which includes a robust vegetation-independent temperature reconstruction. Numerical techniques are used to investigate the drivers of long-term Mediterranean mountain forest dynamics. Specifically, we focus on disentangling the ecological factors that caused the shift from high-diversity mixed forests to beech-dominated stands and on assessing the occurrence of legacy effects on present-day forests. Abrupt climate change largely drove vegetation dynamics during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. Species-rich mixed Abies alba (silver fir) forests dominated about 10,500—5500 years ago, under rather dry and warmer-than-today conditions (+ 1—2 °C) and limited fire occurrence. Cooler and moister summers and increasing fire activity caused declines in several fire-sensitive temperate deciduous trees (for example, Ulmus, Tilia, Fraxinus) and favored the establishment of fir-beech forests around 5500 years ago. Further enhancement of fire activity and farming around 2000 years ago led to local Abies alba extinction and forest impoverishment. We conclude that the currently widespread monospecific Apennine beech forests are the result of multi-millennial land-use intensification superimposed on Late Holocene cooling and moistening. Given their higher drought-tolerance compared to beech stands, reviving ancient species-rich mixed fir forests represents a feasible and ‘tested’ possibility to adapt forests to climate change.

Species richness promotes ecosystem carbon storage: evidence from biodiversity-ecosystem functioning experiments

Plant diversity has a strong impact on a plethora of ecosystem functions and services, especially ecosystem carbon (C) storage. However, the potential context-dependency of biodiversity effects across ecosystem types, environmental conditions and carbon pools remains largely unknown. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis by collecting data from 95 biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies across 60 sites to explore the effects of plant diversity on different C pools, including aboveground and belowground plant biomass, soil microbial biomass C and soil C content across different ecosystem types. The results showed that ecosystem C storage was significantly enhanced by plant diversity, with stronger effects on aboveground biomass than on soil C content. Moreover, the response magnitudes of ecosystem C storage increased with the level of species richness and experimental duration across all ecosystems. The effects of plant diversity were more pronounced in grasslands than in forests. Furthermore, the effects of plant diversity on belowground plant biomass increased with aridity index in grasslands and forests, suggesting that climate change might modulate biodiversity effects, which are stronger under wetter conditions but weaker under more arid conditions. Taken together, these results provide novel insights into the important role of plant diversity in ecosystem C storage across critical C pools, ecosystem types and environmental contexts.

Canonical correlations reveal adaptive loci and phenotypic responses to climate in perennial ryegrass

Germplasm from perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) natural populations is useful for breeding because of its adaptation to a wide range of climates. Climate-adaptive genes can be detected from associations between genotype, phenotype and climate but an integrated framework for the analysis of these three sources of information is lacking. We used two approaches to identify adaptive loci in perennial ryegrass and their effect on phenotypic traits. First, we combined Genome-Environment Association (GEA) and GWAS analyses. Then, we implemented a new test based on a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CANCOR) to detect adaptive loci. Furthermore, we improved the previous perennial ryegrass gene set by de novo gene prediction and functional annotation of 39,967 genes. GEA-GWAS revealed eight outlier loci associated with both environmental variables and phenotypic traits. CANCOR retrieved 633 outlier loci associated with two climatic gradients, characterized by cold-dry winter versus mild-wet winter and long rainy season versus long summer, and pointed out traits putatively conferring adaptation at the extremes of these gradients. Our CANCOR test also revealed the presence of both polygenic and oligogenic climatic adaptations. Our gene annotation revealed that 374 of the CANCOR outlier loci were positioned within or close to a gene. Co-association networks of outlier loci revealed a potential utility of CANCOR for investigating the interaction of genes involved in polygenic adaptations. The CANCOR test provides an integrated framework to analyse adaptive genomic diversity and phenotypic responses to environmental selection pressures that could be used to facilitate the adaptation of plant species to climate change.

The effect of climate change on the richness distribution pattern of oaks (Quercus L.) in China

Increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the air is acknowledged as one of the main reason for observed global climatic change. This phenomenon significantly affects the species geographical distribution, and changes their richness distribution pattern. Oak (Quercus L.) is an important component of forests in China, and it has significant ecological value. Based on the distribution data of 35 species and 19 bioclimatic variables, the potential richness distribution of Quercus L. in China was predicted using the MaxEnt model under present climatic conditions and three different emission scenarios in the years 2050 and 2070 with six General Circulation Models (GCMs). The results revealed that Quercus L. at present was primarily distributed in the mountainous areas of southwestern China. The simulations indicated that climate change could affect the spatial pattern of the richness distribution, and if climate change intensified, its impact would gradually increase. As temperatures rise, the distribution of Quercus L. was predicted to be concentrated, and suitable areas of certain species would contract. These species may migrate to high altitudes or high latitudes. The high percentage of species lost is the reason for the higher turnover values in the mountainous areas, while other regions are mostly be influenced by the high percentage of species gained associated with the northward shift of species. Predicting changes in the richness distribution pattern of Quercus L. as a result of climate change can help us understand the biogeography of Quercus L. and enact conservation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change.

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.

Bryophytes tend to be sensitive to warming, but their high dispersal ability could help them track climate change. Here the authors combine correlative niche models and mechanistic dispersal models for 40 European bryophyte species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, finding that most of these species are unlikely to track climate change over the coming decades.

Prediction of plant species occurrence as affected by nitrogen deposition and climate change on a European scale

Plant species occurrence in Europe is affected by changes in nitrogen deposition and climate. Insight into potential future effects of those changes can be derived by a model approach based on field-based empirical evidence on a continental scale. In this paper, we present a newly developed empirical model PROPS, predicting the occurrence probabilities of plant species in response to a combination of climatic factors, nitrogen deposition and soil properties. Parameters included were temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, soil pH and soil C/N ratio. The PROPS model was fitted to plant species occurrence data of about 800,000 European relevés with estimated values for pH and soil C/N ratio and interpolated climate and modelled N deposition data obtained from the Ensemble meteo data set and EMEP model results, respectively. The model was validated on an independent data set. The test of ten species against field data gave an average Pearson's r-value of 0.79. PROPS was applied to a grassland and a heathland site to evaluate the effect of scenarios for nitrogen deposition and climate change on the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI), being the average of the relative probabilities, compared to the maximum probability, of all target species in a habitat. Results for the period 1930-2050 showed that an initial increase and later decrease in nitrogen deposition led to a pronounced decrease in HSI, and with dropping nitrogen deposition to an increase of the HSI. The effect of climate change appeared to be limited, resulting in a slight increase in HSI.

Spatial variation in biodiversity loss across China under multiple environmental stressors

Biodiversity is essential for the maintenance of ecosystem health and delivery of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, the drivers of biodiversity loss and the spatial variation in their impacts are poorly understood. Here, we explore the spatial-temporal distributions of threatened and declining ("biodiversity-loss") species and find that these species are affected by multiple stressors, with climate and human activities being the fundamental shaping forces. There has been large spatial variation in the distribution of threatened species over China's provinces, with the biodiversity of Gansu, Guangdong, Hainan, and Shaanxi provinces severely reduced. With increasing urbanization and industrialization, the expansion of construction and worsening pollution has led to habitat retreat or degradation, and high proportions of amphibians, mammals, and reptiles are threatened. Because distributions of species and stressors vary widely across different climate zones and geographical areas, specific policies and measures are needed for preventing biodiversity loss in different regions.

Conservation of vegetable genetic diversity in Transylvania-Romania

The conservation of plant and animal genetic heritage is not a purpose in itself, but it represents the sine qua non condition for practicing a sustainable agriculture and to ensure nutrition and food security on long-term. Our research focused on identifying the areas with the richest genetic diversity of vegetables in Transylvania, Romania, as well as the main vulnerabilities related to seed production for the local vegetables. Our trips included 210 locations where 338 small seed producers were surveyed. The questionnaire method with fixed questions and undisguised multiple-choices was used. A number of 316 out of 565 cultivars taken into study have been proven to be authentic and valuable landraces, meaning 55.9%. In Transylvania, the richest genetic diversity of vegetables is found in the counties of Maramures, Bistrita-Nasaud and Hunedoara—where the cooperativization was lower before the year 1989. The most important risk in losing vegetable landraces is the old age of small growers (68.4%). However, it is encouraging that many NGOs interested in identifying, conserving and promoting local varieties have emerged in the last decade. Therefore, so-called "seed houses" have been set up to facilitate the exchange of seeds, and on the other hand, the expansion of organic farming requires local varieties that are better adapted to harsh environmental conditions.

Ophidiomycosis, an emerging fungal disease of snakes: Targeted surveillance on military lands and detection in the western US and Puerto Rico

Wildlife disease surveillance and pathogen detection are fundamental for conservation, population sustainability, and public health. Detection of pathogens in snakes is often overlooked despite their essential roles as both predators and prey within their communities. Ophidiomycosis (formerly referred to as Snake Fungal Disease, SFD), an emergent disease on the North American landscape caused by the fungus Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola, poses a threat to snake population health and stability. We tested 657 individual snakes representing 58 species in 31 states from 56 military bases in the continental US and Puerto Rico for O. ophiodiicola. Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola DNA was detected in samples from 113 snakes for a prevalence of 17.2% (95% CI: 14.4–20.3%), representing 25 species from 19 states/territories, including the first reports of the pathogen in snakes in Idaho, Oklahoma, and Puerto Rico. Most animals were ophidiomycosis negative (n = 462), with Ophidiomyces detected by qPCR (n = 64), possible ophidiomycosis (n = 82), and apparent ophidiomycosis (n = 49) occurring less frequently. Adults had 2.38 times greater odds than juveniles of being diagnosed with ophidiomycosis. Snakes from Georgia, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, and Virginia all had greater odds of ophidiomycosis diagnosis, while snakes from Idaho were less likely to be diagnosed with ophidiomycosis. The results of this survey indicate that this pathogen is endemic in the eastern US and identified new sites that could represent emergence or improved detection of endemic sites. The direct mortality of snakes with ophidiomycosis is unknown from this study, but the presence of numerous individuals with clinical disease warrants further investigation and possible conservation action.

Using microcontrollers and sensors to build an inexpensive CO2 control system for growth chambers

PREMISE

A CO2 control system is important for investigating how elevated CO2 affects plant growth. Our automatic CO2 monitoring and control system offers an inexpensive and flexible way to make CO2-enriched environments.

METHOD AND RESULTS

Using microcontrollers paired with non-dispersive infrared CO2 sensors, relays, and valves, we developed a low-cost system for monitoring and controlling CO2 levels in growth chambers.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with existing commercially available CO2 control systems, Arduino-based microcontrollers offer affordable access to the data logging of CO2 levels in growth chambers, thereby reducing budget limitations for creating growth conditions with highly controlled CO2 concentrations.

Landscape resistance mediates native fish species distribution shifts and vulnerability to climate change in riverscapes

A broader understanding of how landscape resistance influences climate change vulnerability for many species is needed, as is an understanding of how barriers to dispersal may impact vulnerability. Freshwater biodiversity is at particular risk, but previous studies have focused on popular cold-water fishes (e.g., salmon, trout, and char) with relatively large body sizes and mobility. Those fishes may be able to track habitat change more adeptly than less mobile species. Smaller, less mobile fishes are rarely represented in studies demonstrating effects of climate change, but depending on their thermal tolerance, they may be particularly vulnerable to environmental change. By revisiting 280 sites over a 20 year interval throughout a warming riverscape, we described changes in occupancy (i.e., site extirpation and colonization probabilities) and assessed the environmental conditions associated with those changes for four fishes spanning a range of body sizes, thermal and habitat preferences. Two larger-bodied trout species exhibited small changes in site occupancy, with bull trout experiencing a 9.2% (95% CI = 8.3%-10.1%) reduction, mostly in warmer stream reaches, and westslope cutthroat trout experiencing a nonsignificant 1% increase. The small-bodied cool water slimy sculpin was originally distributed broadly throughout the network and experienced a 48.0% (95% CI = 42.0%-54.0%) reduction in site occupancy with declines common in warmer stream reaches and areas subject to wildfire disturbances. The small-bodied comparatively warmer water longnose dace primarily occupied larger streams and increased its occurrence in the lower portions of connected tributaries during the study period. Distribution shifts for sculpin and dace were significantly constrained by barriers, which included anthropogenic water diversions, natural step-pools and cascades in steeper upstream reaches. Our results suggest that aquatic communities exhibit a range of responses to climate change, and that improving passage and fluvial connectivity will be important climate adaptation tactics for conserving aquatic biodiversity.

Rapid climate change results in long-lasting spatial homogenization of phylogenetic diversity

Scientific understanding of biodiversity dynamics, resulting from past climate oscillations and projections of future changes in biodiversity, has advanced over the past decade. Little is known about how these responses, past or future, are spatially connected. Analyzing the spatial variability in biodiversity provides insight into how climate change affects the accumulation of diversity across space. Here, we evaluate the spatial variation of phylogenetic diversity of European seed plants among neighboring sites and assess the effects of past rapid climate changes during the Quaternary on these patterns. Our work shows a marked homogenization in phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to high climate change velocity and large distances to refugia. Our results suggest that the future projected loss in evolutionary heritage may be even more dramatic, as homogenization in response to rapid climate change has occurred among sites across large landscapes, leaving a legacy that has lasted for millennia.

How past climate change has affected biodiversity over large spatial scales remains underexplored. Here, the authors find marked homogenization in flowering plant phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to rapid climate change and large distances to glacial refugia.

Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

Glacial relicts, especially those with very narrow habitat requirements, are particularly affected by global warming. We considered Papaver occidentale, a glacial relict endemic to the Western Prealps, belonging to the alpine poppy complex (P. alpinum aggr.), as a model taxon to study the actual status and potential future distribution of species restricted to particular microrefugia. For this study, all known localities were visited, each population was georeferenced and the number of individuals was estimated. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to evaluate the present and future potential distribution range and habitat suitability, taking into account the specificity of its habitat (calcareous screes). According to our study, there are globally 19 natural populations of P. occidentale, and a total of about 30,000 individuals. The taxon is a highly specialized alpine plant growing in the majority of natural sites between 1900 and 2100 m a.s.l. on north-facing screes. Predictions for the end of the 21st century indicate that a suitable area will significantly decrease (0–30% remaining). Under the most severe climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5), the species risks complete extinction. The long-term in situ conservation of P. occidentale, and all other taxa of the P. alpinum complex, is unlikely to be achieved without slowing global climate change. More generally, our fine-scale study shows that local environmental buffering of large-scale climate change in high-mountain flora may be very limited in specialised taxa of patchy environments such as screes.

Machine learning predicts large scale declines in native plant phylogenetic diversity

Though substantial effort has gone into predicting how global climate change will impact biodiversity patterns, the scarcity of taxon-specific information has hampered the efficacy of these endeavors. Further, most studies analyzing spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity focus narrowly on species richness. We apply machine learning approaches to a comprehensive vascular plant database for the United States and generate predictive models of regional plant taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in response to a wide range of environmental variables. We demonstrate differences in predicted patterns and potential drivers of native vs nonnative biodiversity. In particular, native phylogenetic diversity is likely to decrease over the next half century despite increases in species richness. We also identify that patterns of taxonomic diversity can be incongruent with those of phylogenetic diversity. The combination of macro-environmental factors that determine diversity likely varies at continental scales; thus, as climate change alters the combinations of these factors across the landscape, the collective effect on regional diversity will also vary. Our study represents one of the most comprehensive examinations of plant diversity patterns to date and demonstrates that our ability to predict future diversity may benefit tremendously from the application of machine learning.

The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)

The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified. Taxus baccata is among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of T. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution of T. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution of T. baccata in northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area for T. baccata in Hyrcanian forests is 5.89 × 10³ km² (regional modeling) to 9.74 × 10³ km² (global modeling). The modeling suggests that climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 is likely to lead to strong suitability reductions in the region, with just between 0.63 × 10³ km² (regional modeling) and 0.57 × 10³ km² (global modeling) suitable area in 2070. Hence, T. baccata risks losing most currently suitable areas in the Hyrcanian forests under climate change. The results of the present study suggest there should be focus on conservation of areas predicted to remain suitable through near-future climate change and provide an estimate of the availability of suitable areas for the regeneration of T. baccata and its use in reforestation.

Climate change promotes transitions to tall evergreen vegetation in tropical Asia

Vegetation in tropical Asia is highly diverse due to large environmental gradients and heterogeneity of landscapes. This biodiversity is threatened by intense land use and climate change. However, despite the rich biodiversity and the dense human population, tropical Asia is often underrepresented in global biodiversity assessments. Understanding how climate change influences the remaining areas of natural vegetation is therefore highly important for conservation planning. Here, we used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version 2 (aDGVM2) to simulate impacts of climate change and elevated CO₂ on vegetation formations in tropical Asia for an ensemble of climate change scenarios. We used climate forcing from five different climate models for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We found that vegetation in tropical Asia will remain a carbon sink until 2099, and that vegetation biomass increases of up to 28% by 2099 are associated with transitions from small to tall woody vegetation and from deciduous to evergreen vegetation. Patterns of phenology were less responsive to climate change and elevated CO₂ than biomes and biomass, indicating that the selection of variables and methods used to detect vegetation changes is crucial. Model simulations revealed substantial variation within the ensemble, both in biomass increases and in distributions of different biome types. Our results have important implications for management policy, because they suggest that large ensembles of climate models and scenarios are required to assess a wide range of potential future trajectories of vegetation change and to develop robust management plans. Furthermore, our results highlight open ecosystems with low tree cover as most threatened by climate change, indicating potential conflicts of interest between biodiversity conservation in open ecosystems and active afforestation to enhance carbon sequestration.

Modelling Current and Future Potential Habitats for Plantations of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden and E. dunnii Maiden in Uruguay

Eucalyptus grandis and E. dunnii have high productive potential in the South of Brazil, Uruguay, and central Argentina. This is based on the similarity of the climate and soil of these areas, which form an eco-region called Campos. However, previous results show that these species have differences in their distribution caused by the prioritization of Uruguayan soils for forestry, explained by the particular conditions of each site. In this study, the site variables (climate, soil, and topography) that better explain the distribution of both species were identified, and prediction models of current and future distribution were adjusted for different climate change scenarios (years 2050 and 2070). The distribution of E. grandis was associated with soil parameters, whereas for E. dunnii a greater effect of the climatic variables was observed. The ensemble biomod2 model was the most precise with regard to predicting the habitat for both species with respect to the simple models evaluated. For E. dunnii, the average values of the AUC, Kappa, and TSS index were 0.98, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively. For E. grandis, their values were 0.97, 0.86, and 0.80, respectively. In the projections of climatic change, the distribution of E. grandis occurrence remains practically unchanged, even in the scenarios of temperature increase. However, current distribution of E. dunnii shows high susceptibility in a scenario of increased temperature, to the point that most of the area currently planted may be at risk. Our results might be useful to political government and foresters for decision making in terms of future planted areas.

The Majella National Park: a case study for the conservation of plant biodiversity in the Italian Apennines

The Majella National Park (MNP) is a tangible example of the interaction between ex-situ and in-situ conservation of endemic, rare, or endangered species at a Regional level in the context of the Italian national parks. The MNP has the facilities and carries out activities for the conservation of plant biodiversity: it includes botanical gardens, a seed bank, a nursery, and a network of “guardian farmers”, an authentic “granary” in which to protect and conserve biodiversity in and around the Majella massif (central Italy).

Climate change influences on the potential distribution of Dianthus polylepis Bien. ex Boiss. (Caryophyllaceae), an endemic species in the Irano-Turanian region

Endemic and restricted-range species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change, which makes assessing likely climate change effects on geographic distributions of such species important to the development of integrated conservation strategies. Here, we determined distributional patterns for an endemic species of Dianthus (Dianthus polylepis) in the Irano-Turanian region using a maximum-entropy algorithm. In total, 70 occurrence points and 19 climatic variables were used to estimate the potential distributional area under current conditions and two future representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios under seven general circulation models for 2050. Mean diurnal range, iso-thermality, minimum temperature of coldest quarter, and annual precipitation were major factors that appeared to structure the distribution of the species. Most current potential suitable areas were located in montane regions. Model transfers to future-climate scenarios displayed upward shifts in elevation and northward shifts geographically for the species. Our results can be used to define high-priority areas in the Irano-Turanian region for conservation management plans for this species and can offer a template for analyses of other endangered and threatened species in the region.

High Preservation Potential of Paleogeographic Range Size Distributions in Deep Time

AbstractReconstructing geographic range sizes from fossil data is a crucial tool in paleoecology, elucidating macroecological and macroevolutionary processes. Studies examining links between range size and extinction risk may also offer a predictive tool for identifying species most vulnerable in the "sixth mass extinction." However, the extent to which paleogeographic ranges can be recorded reliably in the fossil record is unknown. We perform simulation-based extinction experiments to examine (1) the fidelity of paleogeographic range size preservation in deep time, (2) the relative performance of different methods for reconstructing range size, and (3) the reliability of detecting patterns of extinction "selectivity" on range size. Our results suggest both that relative paleogeographic range size can be consistently reconstructed and that selectivity patterns on range size can be preserved under many extinction intensities, even when sedimentary rocks are scarce. By identifying patterns of selectivity across Earth's history, paleontologists can thus augment neontological work that aims to predict and prevent extinctions of living species. Last, we find that introducing "false extinctions" in the fossil record can produce spurious range-selectivity signals. Errors in the temporal ranges of species may pose a larger barrier to reconstructing range size-extinction risk signals than the spatial distribution of fossiliferous sediments.