Temporal changes in programme outcomes among adult patients initiating antiretroviral therapy across South Africa, 2002-2007

Nutritional content and a phase-I safety clinical trial of a herbal-nutritional supplement (IMUNITI) with putative immune-modulating properties

The relationship between HIV and AIDS and poor nutrition has been well established. Poor nutrition hastens the progression of HIV infection to AIDS. The rising pandemic of HIV and AIDS and high toxicity associated with anti-retroviral use are major factors that have compelled research to explore traditional herbal medicines as potential alternatives or supplements to anti-retroviral agents. A Phase I clinical trial was conducted on IMUNITI Wellness Pack, a herbal product with putative immune-modulating properties. The product is a combination of 7 herbal preparations, minerals, vitamins, and a specially formulated soya-maize meal porridge and a bottle of water purifier. The aim was to evaluate the safety and tolerability of IMUNITI, with a purpose of developing it for use in HIV-infected patients. The phase I study was conducted at the MRC clinic in Botha's hill and the study lasted 5 weeks from date of participant dosing. The study was a randomised blinded placebo-controlled phase I clinical trial conducted on 48 healthy males. The participants were randomly divided into 4 groups of 12. The 3 groups received different escalating doses of IMUNITI while the forth group received placebo tablets. Participants consumed IMUNITI daily for a period of 5 weeks. Assessments were done at baseline, week 1 and week 5 to determine the safety parameters in all participants. In this study, IMUNITI did not show any safety concerns. In all study participants, there were no significant changes above the upper limit of the reference ranges of the laboratory tests for full blood count, INR, renal and biochemical safety parameters. IMUNITI was well tolerated. Furthermore, the nutritional content analysis of IMUNITI showed that it is a high kilojoule, high protein content product which contains a mixture of sugars, vitamins, traces of calcium, phosphorus and minerals.

Earlier initiation of antiretroviral therapy, increased tuberculosis case finding and reduced mortality in a setting of improved HIV care: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

High early mortality after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in resource-limited settings is associated with low baseline CD4 cell counts and a high burden of opportunistic infections. Our large urban HIV clinic in Uganda has made concerted efforts to initiate ART at higher CD4 cell counts and to improve diagnosis and care of patients coinfected with tuberculosis (TB). We sought to determine associated treatment outcomes.

METHODS

Routinely collected data for all patients who initiated ART from 2005 to 2009 were analysed. Median baseline CD4 cell counts by year of ART initiation were compared using the Cuzick test for trend. Mortality and TB incidence rates in the first year of ART were computed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

First-line ART was initiated in 7659 patients; 64% were women, and the mean age was 37 years (standard deviation 9 years). Median baseline CD4 counts increased from 2005 to 2009 [82 cells/μL (interquartile range (IQR) 24, 153) to 148 cells/μL (IQR 61, 197), respectively; P<0.001]. The mortality rate fell from 6.5/100 person-years at risk (PYAR) [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5-7.6 PYAR] to 3.6/100 PYAR (95% CI 2.2-5.8 PYAR). TB incidence rates increased from 8.2/100 PYAR (95% CI 7.1-9.5 PYAR) to 15.6/100 PYAR (95% CI 12.4-19.7 PYAR). A later year of ART initiation was independently associated with decreased mortality (HR 0.91; 95% CI 0.83-1.00; P=0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline CD4 cell counts have increased over time and are associated with decreased mortality. Additional reductions in mortality might be a result of a better standard of care and increased TB case finding. Further efforts to initiate ART earlier should be prioritized even in a setting of capped or reduced funding for ART programmes.

Low mortality risk but high loss to follow-up among patients in the Tanzanian national HIV care and treatment programme

OBJECTIVE To analyse survival and retention rates of the Tanzanian care and treatment programme.

METHODS

Routine patient-level data were available from 101 of 909 clinics. Kaplan-Meier probabilities of mortality and attrition after ART initiation were calculated. Mortality risks were corrected for biases from loss to follow-up using Egger's nomogram. Smoothed hazard rates showed mortality and attrition peaks. Cox regression identified factors associated with death and attrition. Median CD4 counts were calculated at 6 month intervals.

RESULTS

In 88,875 adults, 18% were lost to follow up 12 months after treatment initiation, and 36% after 36 months. Cumulative mortality reached 10% by 12 months (15% after correcting for loss to follow-up) and 14% by 36 months. Mortality and attrition rates both peaked within the first six months, and were higher among males, those under 45 kg and those with CD4 counts below 50 cells/μl at ART initiation. In the first year on ART, median CD4 count increased by 126 cells/μl, with similar changes in both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Earlier diagnoses through expanded HIV testing may reduce high mortality and attrition rates if combined with better patient tracing systems. Further research is needed to explore reasons for attrition.

Mortality and loss to follow-up in the first year of ART: Malawi national ART programme

OBJECTIVES

To analyse mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and retention on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the first year of ART across all age groups in the Malawi national ART programme.

DESIGN

Cohort study including all patients who started ART in Malawi's public sector clinics between 2004 and 2007.

METHODS

ART registers were photographed, information entered into a database and merged with data from clinics with electronic records. Rates per 100 patient-years and cumulative incidence of retention were calculated. Subhazard ratios (sHRs) of outcomes adjusted for patient and clinic-level characteristics were calculated in multivariable analysis, applying competing risk models.

RESULTS

A total of 117,945 patients contributed 85,246 person-years: 1.0% were infants below 2 years, 7.4% children 2-14, 7.5% young people 15-24, and 84.2% adults 25 years and above. Sixty percent of patients were female: women outnumbered men from age 14 to 35 years. Mortality and LTFU were higher in men from age 20 years. Infants and young people had the highest rates per 100 person-years for mortality (23.0 and 19.4) and LTFU (24.7 and 19.3), and the highest adjusted relative risks compared to age group 25-34 years: sHRs were 1.37 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-1.60] and 1.17 (95% CI 1.10-1.25) for death and 1.37 (95% CI 1.18-1.59) and 1.27 (95% CI 1.19-1.35) for LTFU, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this country-wide study patients aged 0-1 and 15-24 years had the highest risk of death and LTFU, and from age 20 men were at higher risk than women. Interventions to improve outcomes in these patient groups are required.

Aligning vertical interventions to health systems: a case study of the HIV monitoring and evaluation system in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Like many low- and middle-income countries, South Africa established a dedicated HIV monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system to track the national response to HIV/AIDS. Its implementation in the public health sector has however not been assessed. Since responsibility for health services management lies at the district (sub-national) level, this study aimed to assess the extent to which the HIV M&E system is integrated with the overall health system M&E function at district level. This study describes implementation of the HIV M&E system, determines the extent to which it is integrated with the district health information system (DHIS), and evaluates factors influencing HIV M&E integration.

METHODS

The study was conducted in one health district in South Africa. Data were collected through key informant interviews with programme and health facility managers and review of M&E records at health facilities providing HIV services. Data analysis assessed the extent to which processes for HIV data collection, collation, analysis and reporting were integrated with the DHIS.

RESULTS

The HIV M&E system is top-down, over-sized, and captures a significant amount of energy and resources to primarily generate antiretroviral treatment (ART) indicators. Processes for producing HIV prevention indicators are integrated with the DHIS. However processes for the production of HIV treatment indicators by-pass the DHIS and ART indicators are not disseminated to district health managers. Specific reporting requirements linked to ear-marked funding, politically-driven imperatives, and mistrust of DHIS capacity are key drivers of this silo approach.

CONCLUSIONS

Parallel systems that bypass the DHIS represent a missed opportunity to strengthen system-wide M&E capacity. Integrating HIV M&E (staff, systems and process) into the health system M&E function would mobilise ear-marked HIV funding towards improving DHIS capacity to produce quality and timely HIV indicators that would benefit both programme and health system M&E functions. This offers a practical way of maximising programme-system synergies and translating the health system strengthening intents of existing HIV policies into tangible action.

Gender differences in survival among adult patients starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22-1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86-1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

HIV treatment as prevention: models, data, and questions--towards evidence-based decision-making

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and mathematical modelling will be central in framing key decisions in the optimal use of ART. PLoS Medicine, with the HIV Modelling Consortium, has commissioned a set of articles that examine different aspects of HIV treatment as prevention with a forward-looking research agenda. Interlocking themes across these articles are discussed in this introduction. We hope that this article, and others in the collection, will provide a foundation upon which greater collaborations between disciplines will be formed, and will afford deeper insights into the key factors involved, to help strengthen the support for evidence-based decision-making in HIV prevention.

HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

CONCLUSIONS

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.

Loss to follow-up of stable antiretroviral therapy patients in a decentralized down-referral model of care in Johannesburg, South Africa

A retrospective record review was conducted for patients down referred to primary health care facilities between 2007 and 2009 to assess the rate and reported reasons for loss to follow-up among stable antiretroviral patients in a down-referral model of care in Johannesburg, South Africa. Missing patients were traced telephonically. Of 3361 patients down referred, 4.11% were lost to follow-up. Most patients who were lost to follow-up were lost at the transfer stage between initiation and maintenance sites. Decentralization and nurse management of ART should be prioritized to increase access to and retention in HIV/AIDS care.

Temporal trends in baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral treatment: an analysis in four provinces in South Africa, 2004-2009

BACKGROUND

Few studies describe temporal trends in pediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa. Adult studies show deteriorating patient retention in recent years. We describe temporal trends in baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes amongst ART-naive children between 2004 and 2009 at 30 facilities in 4 South African provinces.

METHODS

Linear trend in baseline parameters between annual enrolment cohorts was assessed. Corrected mortality estimates were calculated, correcting for deaths amongst those lost to follow-up using probability-weighted Kaplan-Meier functions. On-treatment immunologic changes were modelled using generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

Three thousand and seven children (median age 6.4 years) were included. Monthly enrollment increased from 1.9 children in 2004 to 106 in 2009. Proportions with severe baseline immunodeficiency decreased from 85.5% to 64.5% between 2004/2005 and 2009, P < 0.0005. Proportions with baseline World Health Organization clinical stages III and IV reduced from 72.9% to 49.0% between 2006 and 2009, P < 0.0005. Later calendar cohorts had independently and progressively reduced on-treatment probabilities of severe immunodeficiency despite adjusting for baseline immunological status, adjusted odds ratio: 0.38 [confidence interval (CI): 0.26 to 0.55; P < 0.0005; 2008/2009 compared with 2004/2005]. After 24 months, corrected mortality was 6.1% (CI: 5.1% to 7.3%) and loss to follow-up was 6.8% (CI: 5.7% to 8.2%), with no deterioration amongst more recently enrolled cohorts (P = 0.50 and P = 0.55, respectively). After 4 years, program retention was 84.1% (CI: 80.9% to 86.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Childrens' baseline condition when starting ART has improved considerably. Improving immunological treatment outcomes, the high medium-term patient retention with lack of temporal deterioration despite rapid patient number increases, provide evidence that pediatric ART programs are increasingly effective for those accessing them. However, children must start treatment when younger, following current international guidelines.

CD4 cell count and viral load monitoring in patients undergoing antiretroviral therapy in Uganda: cost effectiveness study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the cost and cost effectiveness of quarterly CD4 cell count and viral load monitoring among patients taking antiretroviral therapy (ART).

DESIGN

Cost effectiveness study.

SETTING

A randomised trial in a home based ART programme in Tororo, Uganda.

PARTICIPANTS

People with HIV who were members of the AIDS Support Organisation and had CD4 cell counts <250 × 10(6) cells/L or World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 disease.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes calculated for the study period and projected 15 years into the future included costs, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER; $ per DALY averted). Cost inputs were based on the trial and other sources. Clinical inputs derived from the trial; in the base case, we assumed that point estimates reflected true differences even if non-significant. We conducted univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses.

INTERVENTIONS

Three monitoring strategies: clinical monitoring with quarterly CD4 cell counts and viral load measurement (clinical/CD4/viral load); clinical monitoring and quarterly CD4 counts (clinical/CD4); and clinical monitoring alone.

RESULTS

With the intention to treat (ITT) results per 100 individuals starting ART, we found that clinical/CD4 monitoring compared with clinical monitoring alone increases costs by $20,458 (£12,780, €14,707) and averts 117.3 DALYs (ICER = $174 per DALY). Clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring compared with clinical/CD4 monitoring adds $142,458, and averts 27.5 DALYs ($5181 per DALY). The superior ICER for clinical/CD4 monitoring is robust to uncertainties in input values, and that strategy is dominant (less expensive and more effective) compared with clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring in one quarter of simulations. If clinical inputs are based on the as treated analysis starting at 90 days (after laboratory monitoring was initiated), then clinical/CD4/viral load monitoring is dominated by other strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on this trial, compared with clinical monitoring alone, monitoring of routine CD4 cell count is considerably more cost effective than additionally including routine viral load testing in the monitoring strategy and is more cost effective than ART.

Effect of cotrimoxazole on mortality in HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether cotrimoxazole reduces mortality in adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in low- and middle-income countries through a systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase were searched for randomized controlled trials and prospective and retrospective cohort studies that compared mortality or morbidity in HIV-infected individuals aged ≥ 13 years on cotrimoxazole and ART and on ART alone. The Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale was used to assess selection, confounding and measurement bias. Publication bias was assessed using Egger's and Begg's tests. Sensitivity analysis was performed because the I-squared statistic indicated substantial heterogeneity in study results. A random-effects model was used for meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

Nine studies were included. Begg and Egger P-values for the seven that reported the effect of cotrimoxazole on mortality were 0.29 and 0.49, respectively, suggesting no publication bias. The I-squared statistic was 93.2%, indicating high heterogeneity in study results. The sensitivity analysis showed that neither the follow-up duration nor the percentage of individuals with World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 HIV disease at baseline explained the heterogeneity. The summary estimate of the effect of cotrimoxazole on the incidence rate of death was 0.42 (95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.61). Since most studies followed participants for less than 1 year, it was not possible to determine whether cotrimoxazole can be stopped safely after ART-induced immune reconstitution.

CONCLUSION

Cotrimoxazole significantly increased survival in HIV-infected adults on ART. Further research is needed to determine the optimum duration of cotrimoxazole treatment in these patients.

Predictors of immune recovery and the association with late mortality while on antiretroviral treatment in Cambodia

The objectives of this study were to examine the association of the on-treatment CD4 cell count with late mortality (after >6 months of antiretroviral treatment [ART]) and to identify the determinants of the long-term CD4 cell count evolution after treatment initiation. We conducted a retrospective analysis including all antiretroviral (ARV)-naïve adults initiating ART in a tertiary hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia from 2003-2010. We used Cox proportional hazards modelling (mortality analysis), including time-updated CD4 counts, and mixed-effects modelling (CD4 response over time). Overall, 2840 patients were included (47% male, median age: 34 years, median baseline CD4 count: 78 cells/μL). The median time on ART was 2.5 years (IQR 1.1-4.3); 71 patients died after >6 months of ART. The baseline CD4 count was the main determinant of the on-treatment CD4 cell count. Time-updated CD4 cell counts was the strongest determinant of late mortality with a HR of 0.32 (95% CI 0.16-0.63) and 0.29 (95% CI 0.11-0.71) for CD4 values of 200-350 cells/μL and 350-500 cells/μL respectively. We conclude that baseline CD4 counts strongly determine the long-term immune recovery, which critically affects late mortality. This calls for increased efforts for early ART initiation and availability of CD4 count testing in low-income countries.

Trends in the clinical characteristics of HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania between 2002 and 2009

Background

East Africa has experienced a rapid expansion in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected patients. Regionally representative socio-demographic, laboratory and clinical characteristics of patients accessing ART over time and across sites have not been well described.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of characteristics of HIV-infected adults initiating ART between 2002 and 2009 in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania and in the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Consortium. Characteristics associated with advanced disease (defined as either a CD4 cell count level of less than 50 cells/mm³ or a WHO Stage 4 condition) at the time of ART initiation and use of stavudine (D4T) or nevirapine (NVP) were identified using a log-link Poisson model with robust standard errors.

Results

Among 48, 658 patients (69% from Kenya, 22% from Uganda and 9% from Tanzania) accessing ART at 30 clinic sites, the median age at the time of ART initiation was 37 years (IQR: 31-43) and 65% were women. Pre-therapy CD4 counts rose from 87 cells/mm³ (IQR: 26-161) in 2002-03 to 154 cells/mm³ (IQR: 71-233) in 2008-09 (p < 0.001). Accessing ART at advanced disease peaked at 35% in 2005-06 and fell to 27% in 2008-09. D4T use in the initial regimen fell from a peak of 88% in 2004-05 to 59% in 2008-09, and a greater extent of decline was observed in Uganda than in Kenya and Tanzania. Self-pay for ART peaked at 18% in 2003, but fell to less than 1% by 2005. In multivariable analyses, accessing ART at advanced immunosuppression was associated with male sex, women without a history of treatment for prevention of mother to child transmission (both as compared with women with such a history) and younger age after adjusting for year of ART initiation and country of residence. Receipt of D4T in the initial regimen was associated with female sex, earlier year of ART initiation, higher WHO stage, and lower CD4 levels at ART initiation and the absence of co-prevalent tuberculosis.

Conclusions

Public health ART services in east Africa have improved over time, but the fraction of patients accessing ART with advanced immunosuppression is still high, men consistently access ART with more advanced disease, and D4T continues to be common in most settings. Strategies to facilitate access to ART, overcome barriers among men and reduce D4T use are needed.

Integrated surveillance of HIV care in low-income and middle-income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

HIV care should be seen as a continuum of health interventions that starts from HIV testing and counselling and ends with life-long provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART). All the interventions should be monitored with appropriate methods and indicators to constitute an integrated surveillance system of HIV care. This review outlines the different elements of this comprehensive surveillance, highlighting their public health importance.

RECENT FINDINGS

Data on HIV care programmes in developing countries are generally fragmented and weak, focusing primarily on outcomes of patients on ART. A global scale-up of ART should be accompanied by robust programmatic assessment of the whole spectrum of HIV care components, which include monitoring pre-ART and ART programmatic elements, routine surveillance of HIV drug resistance, pharmacovigilance and appropriate surveillance of HIV-related mortality.

SUMMARY

Comprehensive surveillance of HIV care that integrates multiple elements is needed in order to provide evidence-based data to optimize quality of care and improve survival. However, due to the increasing number of patients, the need for life-long interventions and the weakness of the health system, the implementation and sustainability of an integrated surveillance programme is challenging.

Long-term immunological outcomes in treated HIV-infected individuals in high-income and low-middle income countries

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To summarize the recent findings on long-term (at least 3-4 years) immunological responses to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and to compare and contrast the findings between cohorts from high-income and low-middle income countries (LMICs).

RECENT FINDINGS

Cohort studies from high-income settings suggest that a majority of treated HIV-infected patients who maintain suppressed HIV viremia experience a gradual increase in CD4 cell counts for several years to normal levels. However, those who start cART at CD4 cell counts less than 200 cells/μl (as opposed to CD4 cell counts>200 cells/μl) spend several more years below the safe CD4 cell count threshold of 500 cells/μl. Cohorts from LMICs also report persistent improvements in CD4+ cell counts over first 4-5 years of follow-up. However, low-CD4 cell counts (<200 cells/μl) at the start of cART, high early mortality, and loss to follow-up in LMICs settings suggest that the observed optimistic responses may be affected by survivorship bias and should be cautiously interpreted as the optimal, rather than an average, response in LMICs populations.

SUMMARY

LMICs cohorts report similar immunological responses to cART as high-income countries in first 4-5 years of follow-up. Sustaining success in these settings is dependent on timely access to first-line and future cART options, efforts to reduce loss to follow-up, and implementation of treatment guidelines. Cohorts from LMICs are encouraged to continue improving treatment programs and to continue reporting outcomes over the next decade, as surveillance for potential future blunting in responses.

The impact of the new WHO antiretroviral treatment guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and cost in South Africa

Background

Since November 2009, WHO recommends that adults infected with HIV should initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) at CD4+ cell counts of ≤350 cells/µl rather than ≤200 cells/µl. South Africa decided to adopt this strategy for pregnant and TB co-infected patients only. We estimated the impact of fully adopting the new WHO guidelines on HIV epidemic dynamics and associated costs.

Methods and Finding

We used an established model of the transmission and control of HIV in specified sexual networks and healthcare settings. We quantified the model to represent Hlabisa subdistrict, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We predicted the HIV epidemic dynamics, number on ART and program costs under the new guidelines relative to treating patients at ≤200 cells/µl for the next 30 years. During the first five years, the new WHO treatment guidelines require about 7% extra annual investments, whereas 28% more patients receive treatment. Furthermore, there will be a more profound impact on HIV incidence, leading to relatively less annual costs after seven years. The resulting cumulative net costs reach a break-even point after on average 16 years.

Conclusions

Our study strengthens the WHO recommendation of starting ART at ≤350 cells/µl for all HIV-infected patients. Apart from the benefits associated with many life-years saved, a modest frontloading appears to lead to net savings within a limited time-horizon. This finding is robust to alternative assumptions and foreseeable changes in ART prices and effectiveness. Therefore, South Africa should aim at rapidly expanding its healthcare infrastructure to fully embrace the new WHO guidelines.

Retention in HIV care between testing and treatment in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Improving the outcomes of HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings requires successful linkage of patients testing positive for HIV to pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) care and retention in pre-ART care until ART initiation. We conducted a systematic review of pre-ART retention in care in Africa.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, conference abstracts, and reference lists for reports on the proportion of adult patients retained between any two points between testing positive for HIV and initiating ART in sub-Saharan African HIV/AIDS care programs. Results were categorized as Stage 1 (from HIV testing to receipt of CD4 count results or clinical staging), Stage 2 (from staging to ART eligibility), or Stage 3 (from ART eligibility to ART initiation). Medians (ranges) were reported for the proportions of patients retained in each stage. We identified 28 eligible studies. The median proportion retained in Stage 1 was 59% (35%-88%); Stage 2, 46% (31%-95%); and Stage 3, 68% (14%-84%). Most studies reported on only one stage; none followed a cohort of patients through all three stages. Enrollment criteria, terminology, end points, follow-up, and outcomes varied widely and were often poorly defined, making aggregation of results difficult. Synthesis of findings from multiple studies suggests that fewer than one-third of patients testing positive for HIV and not yet eligible for ART when diagnosed are retained continuously in care, though this estimate should be regarded with caution because of review limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of retention in pre-ART care report substantial loss of patients at every step, starting with patients who do not return for their initial CD4 count results and ending with those who do not initiate ART despite eligibility. Better health information systems that allow patients to be tracked between service delivery points are needed to properly evaluate pre-ART loss to care, and researchers should attempt to standardize the terminology, definitions, and time periods reported.

The long road to universal antiretroviral treatment coverage in South Africa

In order to sustainably scale-up antiretroviral treatment (ART), South Africa needs to develop an efficient and effective implementation strategy, based on the best available scientific evidence. This article aims to bridge this knowledge gap first by describing the progress South Africa has made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in terms of virological efficacy, survival rates and retention in care, and second by identifying the potential remaining impediments to a durable and sustainable policy response to the epidemic. The study findings demonstrate that, despite favorable results in terms of virologic suppression, survival/mortality and retention in care, four challenges to a sustainable ART scale-up remain: first, the lack of integration of ART services into the general health system; second, the growing need for comprehensive HIV/AIDS care; third, the rising costs associated with the growing case load of people; and fourth, the crippling shortage in human resources for healthcare.

Short communication: three years follow-up of first-line antiretroviral therapy in cambodia: negative impact of prior antiretroviral treatment

There are few long-term data on ART-experienced patients in resource-limited settings. We performed a cross-sectional study of HIV-infected patients included in the ESTHER program in Calmette hospital, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, after 36 ± 3 months of cART. Therapeutic, clinical, and immunovirological outcomes were compared between patients who stated they were ART-naive (naive group), dual nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (two-NRTI group), or fixed-dose combination of stavudine/lamivudine/nevirapine experienced (three-drug group) at entry to the program. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the factors associated with virological failure (PCR HIV > 250 copies/ml). Among the 256 patients included in the analysis, 148 (58%) were ART naive while 50 (20%) had previously received two NRTIs and 58 (22%) three drugs. At entry to the program, all the patients received two NRTIs and one nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI). At evaluation, 46 patients (18%) were switched to a protease inhibitor-based regimen (9%, 32%, and 29% of the naive, two-NRTI, and three-drug groups; p < 0.0001). The median CD4 cell count increase was 180/μl overall (IQR: 96-276) and was higher in ART-naive than ART-experienced patients. In the intent-to-treat analysis, virological success was achieved in 83.5%, 67%, and 69% of the naive, two-NRTI, and three-drug groups, respectively (p = 0.002). Factors associated with virological failure were suboptimal previous ART exposure and WHO immunological failure criteria. The long-term efficacy of first-line cART is maintained in Cambodia. In ART-experienced patients, viral load monitoring needs to be available to establish early virological failure and preserve the potency of second line regimens.

Factors influencing retention in care after starting antiretroviral therapy in a rural South African programme

Introduction

The prognosis of patients with HIV in Africa has improved with the widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) but these successes are threatened by low rates of long-term retention in care. There are limited data on predictors of retention in care, particularly from rural sites.

Methods

Prospective cohort analysis of outcome measures in adults from a rural HIV care programme in Madwaleni, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The ART programme operates from Madwaleni hospital and seven primary care feeder clinics with full integration between inpatient and outpatient services. Outreach workers conducted home visits for defaulters.

Results

1803 adults initiated ART from June 2005 to May 2009. At the end of the study period 82.4% were in active care or had transferred elsewhere, 11.1% had died and 6.5% were lost to follow-up (LTFU). Independent predictors associated with an increased risk of LTFU were CD4 nadir >200, initiating ART as an inpatient or while pregnant, and younger age, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART was associated with a reduced risk. Independent factors associated with an increased risk of mortality were baseline CD4 count <50 and initiating ART as an inpatient, while being in care for >6 months before initiating ART and initiating ART while pregnant were associated with a reduced risk.

Conclusions

Serving a socioeconomically deprived rural population is not a barrier to successful ART delivery. Patients initiating ART while pregnant and inpatients may require additional counselling and support to reduce LTFU. Providing HIV care for patients not yet eligible for ART may be protective against being LTFU and dying after ART initiation.

Four-year treatment outcomes of adult patients enrolled in Mozambique's rapidly expanding antiretroviral therapy program

Background

In Mozambique during 2004–2007 numbers of adult patients (≥15 years old) enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) increased about 16-fold, from <5,000 to 79,500. All ART patients were eligible for co-trimoxazole. ART program outcomes, and determinants of outcomes, have not yet been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a retrospective cohort study, we investigated rates of mortality, attrition (death, loss to follow-up, or treatment cessation), immunologic treatment failure, and regimen-switch, as well as determinants of selected outcomes, among a nationally representative sample of 2,596 adults initiating ART during 2004–2007. At ART initiation, median age of patients was 34 and 62% were female. Malnutrition and advanced disease were common; 18% of patients weighed <45 kilograms, and 15% were WHO stage IV. Median baseline CD4⁺ T-cell count was 153/µL and was lower for males than females (139/µL vs. 159/µL, p<0.01). Stavudine, lamivudine, and nevirapine or efavirenz were prescribed to 88% of patients; only 31% were prescribed co-trimoxazole. Mortality and attrition rates were 3.4 deaths and 19.8 attritions per 100 patient-years overall, and 12.9 deaths and 57.2 attritions per 100 patient-years in the first 90 days. Predictors of attrition included male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.3–1.8], weight <45 kg (AHR 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6–2.9, reference group >60 kg), WHO stage IV (AHR 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3–2.4, reference group WHO stage I/II), lack of co-trimoxazole prescription (AHR 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0–1.8), and later calendar year of ART initiation (AHR 1.5; 95% CI, 1.2–1.8). Rates of immunologic treatment failure and regimen-switch were 14.0 and 0.6 events per 100-patient years, respectively.

Conclusions

ART initiation at earlier disease stages and scale-up of co-trimoxazole among ART patients could improve outcomes. Research to determine reasons for low regimen-switch rates and increasing rates of attrition during program expansion is needed.

Men and antiretroviral therapy in Africa: our blind spot

Most antiretroviral therapy (ART)-related policies remain blind to men's treatment needs. Global and national programmes need to address this blindness urgently, to ensure equitable access to ART in Africa.

Correcting for mortality among patients lost to follow up on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort analysis

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTF) challenges the reporting of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, since it encompasses patients alive but lost to programme and deaths misclassified as LTF. We describe LTF before and after correction for mortality in a primary care ART programme with linkages to the national vital registration system.

Methods and Findings

We included 6411 patients enrolled on ART between March 2001 and June 2007. Patients LTF with available civil identification numbers were matched with the national vital registration system to ascertain vital status. Corrected mortality and true LTF were determined by weighting these patients to represent all patients LTF. We used Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression to describe LTF, mortality among those LTF, and true LTF. Of 627 patients LTF, 85 (28.8%) had died within 3 months after their last clinic visits. Respective estimates of LTF before and after correction for mortality were 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.2–7.6) and 4.3% (95% CI 3.5–5.3) at one year on ART, and 23.9% (95% CI 21.0–27.2) and 19.7% (95% CI 16.1–23.7) at 5 years. After correction for mortality, the hazard of LTF was reversed from decreasing to increasing with time on ART. Younger age, higher baseline CD4 count, pregnancy and increasing calendar year were associated with higher true LTF. Mortality of patients LTF at 1, 12 and 24 months after their last visits was respectively 23.1%, 30.9% and 43.8%; 78.0% of deaths occurred during the first 3 months after last visit and 45.0% in patients on ART for 0 to 3 months.

Conclusions

Mortality of patients LTF was high and occurred early after last clinic visit, especially in patients recently started on ART. Correction for these misclassified deaths revealed that the risk of true LTF increased over time. Research targeting groups at higher risk of LTF (youth, pregnant women and patients with higher CD4 counts) is needed.

Evaluation of three sampling methods to monitor outcomes of antiretroviral treatment programmes in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Retention of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) over time is a proxy for quality of care and an outcome indicator to monitor ART programs. Using existing databases (Antiretroviral in Lower Income Countries of the International Databases to Evaluate AIDS and Médecins Sans Frontières), we evaluated three sampling approaches to simplify the generation of outcome indicators.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used individual patient data from 27 ART sites and included 27,201 ART-naive adults (≥15 years) who initiated ART in 2005. For each site, we generated two outcome indicators at 12 months, retention on ART and proportion of patients lost to follow-up (LFU), first using all patient data and then within a smaller group of patients selected using three sampling methods (random, systematic and consecutive sampling). For each method and each site, 500 samples were generated, and the average result was compared with the unsampled value. The 95% sampling distribution (SD) was expressed as the 2.5(th) and 97.5(th) percentile values from the 500 samples. Overall, retention on ART was 76.5% (range 58.9-88.6) and the proportion of patients LFU, 13.5% (range 0.8-31.9). Estimates of retention from sampling (n = 5696) were 76.5% (SD 75.4-77.7) for random, 76.5% (75.3-77.5) for systematic and 76.0% (74.1-78.2) for the consecutive method. Estimates for the proportion of patients LFU were 13.5% (12.6-14.5), 13.5% (12.6-14.3) and 14.0% (12.5-15.5), respectively. With consecutive sampling, 50% of sites had SD within ±5% of the unsampled site value.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that random, systematic or consecutive sampling methods are feasible for monitoring ART indicators at national level. However, sampling may not produce precise estimates in some sites.

Population-level reduction in adult mortality after extension of free anti-retroviral therapy provision into rural areas in northern Malawi

Background

Four studies from sub-Saharan Africa have found a substantial population-level effect of ART provision on adult mortality. It is important to see if the impact changes with time since the start of treatment scale-up, and as treatment moves to smaller clinics.

Methods and Findings

During 2002-4 a demographic surveillance site (DSS) was established in Karonga district, northern Malawi. Information on births and deaths is collected monthly, with verbal autopsies conducted for all deaths; migrations are updated annually. We analysed mortality trends by comparing three time periods: pre-ART roll-out in the district (August 2002–June 2005), ART period 1 (July 2005–September 2006) when ART was available only in a town 70 km away, and ART period 2 (October 2006–September 2008), when ART was available at a clinic within the DSS area. HIV prevalence and ART uptake were estimated from a sero-survey conducted in 2007/2008. The all-cause mortality rate among 15–59 year olds was 10.2 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period (288 deaths/28285 person-years). It fell by 16% in ART period 1 and by 32% in ART period 2 (95% CI 18%–43%), compared with the pre-ART period. The AIDS mortality rate fell from 6.4 to 4.6 to 2.7 per 1000 person-years in the pre-ART period, period 1 and period 2 respectively (rate ratio for period 2 = 0.43, 95% CI 0.33–0.56). There was little change in non-AIDS mortality. Treatment coverage among individuals eligible to start ART was around 70% in 2008.

Conclusions

ART can have a dramatic effect on mortality in a resource-constrained setting in Africa, at least in the early years of treatment provision. Our findings support the decentralised delivery of ART from peripheral health centres with unsophisticated facilities. Continued funding to maintain and further scale-up treatment provision will bring large benefits in terms of saving lives.