Global shifts in mammalian population trends reveal key predictors of virus spillover risk

SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A genetic, epidemiological, and evolutionary perspective

In less than five months, COVID-19 has spread from a small focus in Wuhan, China, to more than 5 million people in almost every country in the world, dominating the concern of most governments and public health systems. The social and political distresses caused by this epidemic will certainly impact our world for a long time to come. Here, we synthesize lessons from a range of scientific perspectives rooted in epidemiology, virology, genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology so as to provide perspective on how this pandemic started, how it is developing, and how best we can stop it.

One Health—the Key to Preventing COVID-19 from Becoming the New Normal

While we experience the most significant zoonotic pandemic in 100 years, we would do well to consider how we arrived at this historic moment and how we will prevent the next pandemic. In this commentary, we explore the human drivers of emerging infectious diseases and contend that a One Health approach—in which multiple disciplines work together to ensure the health of environments, humans, and non-human animals—is imperative to get through this pandemic and to prevent future ones.

COVID-19 and the Curse of Piecemeal Perspectives

The world is in turmoil. A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has catapulted across the ever-evolving interface between humans and wild places relentlessly spreading coronavirus disease (COVID-19) amongst humans and bringing immense suffering and death to the farthest reaches of our planet. What was immediately apparent was that the virus responsible for this outbreak originated in wild animals. A wildlife source does not come as a surprise as the majority of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic and two-thirds have their origin in wildlife. The commercial use of wildlife for consumption encompassing both legal and illegal trade is poorly regulated with porous boundaries between the two entities. This trade, particularly in live animals, creates super-interfaces along the food value chain co-mingling species from many different geographies and habitats while creating perfect conditions for the exchange and recombination of viruses. Since the SARS outbreak in 2002/2003, broad scientific consensus exists that long term, structural changes, and wildlife trade and market closures will be required to prevent future epidemics. The pragmatic, most cost-effective action governments can take with immediate effect is to ban the commercial trade of wild birds and mammals for consumption. Most importantly, this reduces the risk of future zoonotic transmission while also safeguarding resources for those Indigenous Peoples and local communities who rely on wild meat to meet their nutritional requirements.

Possibility for reverse zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to free-ranging wildlife: A case study of bats

The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the substantial public health, economic, and societal consequences of virus spillover from a wildlife reservoir. Widespread human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also presents a new set of challenges when considering viral spillover from people to naïve wildlife and other animal populations. The establishment of new wildlife reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2 would further complicate public health control measures and could lead to wildlife health and conservation impacts. Given the likely bat origin of SARS-CoV-2 and related beta-coronaviruses (β-CoVs), free-ranging bats are a key group of concern for spillover from humans back to wildlife. Here, we review the diversity and natural host range of β-CoVs in bats and examine the risk of humans inadvertently infecting free-ranging bats with SARS-CoV-2. Our review of the global distribution and host range of β-CoV evolutionary lineages suggests that 40+ species of temperate-zone North American bats could be immunologically naïve and susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2. We highlight an urgent need to proactively connect the wellbeing of human and wildlife health during the current pandemic and to implement new tools to continue wildlife research while avoiding potentially severe health and conservation impacts of SARS-CoV-2 "spilling back" into free-ranging bat populations.

Conservation needs to evolve to survive in the post-pandemic world

The conservation of biodiversity-and the vital ecosystem services it generates-is one of the greatest challenges humanity faces, yet the field faces drastic funding cuts as society realigns its priorities in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we argue that diverting attention from conservation would, however, increase the risk of further global health crises because the emergence of novel infectious diseases is partially driven by global environmental change. As the discrepancy between conservation needs and society's willingness to pay for them grows, conservation will have to evolve to stay relevant in the age global change-induced human infectious disease.

Moving health to the heart of agri-food policies; mitigating risk from our food systems

Our food systems are progressively more industrialized and consolidated with many modern food value chains involving multiple countries and continents, and as such being associated with changes in risk profile and impacts of emerging and re-emerging diseases. Disease outbreaks that sweep through a single region can have massive impacts on food supply, while severe outbreaks of human pathogens can disrupt agricultural labor supply or demand for products perceived as 'unsafe'. Market pressures have generally rewarded production of cash crops for fuel and energy dense, low nutrient processed foods over production of fruits and vegetables for local consumption. Climbing rates of food-related NCDs and pre-existing conditions leave the population increasingly susceptible to infectious diseases that are often driven by or arise from the food system. Therefore disease and diet from our food systems cause impacts on human health, and human health issues can impact on the functioning of the food system. The COVID-19 outbreak is the most recent example of food system driven disease emergence and of massive supply and demand shocks in the food system, experienced as a direct and indirect result of this disease. The effects of the food system on disease spread (and vice versa) must be addressed in future plans to prevent and mitigate large scale outbreaks. Health policies must acknowledge the food system as the base of our health system, as must agri-food policy recognize the pre-eminence of human health (directly and indirectly) in decision making.

The role of ecosystems in mitigation and management of Covid-19 and other zoonoses

There is rising international concern about the zoonotic origins of many global pandemics. Increasing human-animal interactions are perceived as driving factors in pathogen transfer, emphasising the close relationships between human, animal and environmental health. Contemporary livelihood and market patterns tend to degrade ecosystems and their services, driving a cycle of degradation in increasingly tightly linked socio-ecological systems. This contributes to reductions in the natural regulating capacities of ecosystem services to limit disease transfer from animals to humans. It also undermines natural resource availability, compromising measures such as washing and sanitation that may be key to managing subsequent human-to-human disease transmission. Human activities driving this degrading cycle tend to convert beneficial ecosystem services into disservices, exacerbating risks related to zoonotic diseases. Conversely, measures to protect or restore ecosystems constitute investment in foundational capital, enhancing their capacities to provide for greater human security and opportunity. We use the DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State change-Impact-Response) framework to explore three aspects of zoonotic diseases: (1) the significance of disease regulation ecosystem services and their degradation in the emergence of Covid-19 and other zoonotic diseases; and of the protection of natural resources as mitigating contributions to both (2) regulating human-to-human disease transfer; and (3) treatment of disease outbreaks. From this analysis, we identify a set of appropriate response options, recognising the foundational roles of ecosystems and the services they provide in risk management. Zoonotic disease risks are ultimately interlinked with biodiversity crises and water insecurity. The need to respond to the Covid-19 pandemic ongoing at the time of writing creates an opportunity for systemic policy change, placing scientific knowledge of the value and services of ecosystems at the heart of societal concerns as a key foundation for a more secure future. Rapid political responses and unprecedented economic stimuli reacting to the pandemic demonstrate that systemic change is achievable at scale and pace, and is also therefore transferrable to other existential, global-scale threats including climate change and the 'biodiversity crisis'. This also highlights the need for concerted global action, and is also consistent with the duties, and ultimately the self-interests, of developed, donor nations.

A "Global Safety Net" to reverse biodiversity loss and stabilize Earth's climate

Global strategies to halt the dual crises of biodiversity loss and climate change are often formulated separately, even though they are interdependent and risk failure if pursued in isolation. The Global Safety Net maps how expanded nature conservation addresses both overarching threats. We identify 50% of the terrestrial realm that, if conserved, would reverse further biodiversity loss, prevent CO₂ emissions from land conversion, and enhance natural carbon removal. This framework shows that, beyond the 15.1% land area currently protected, 35.3% of land area is needed to conserve additional sites of particular importance for biodiversity and stabilize the climate. Fifty ecoregions and 20 countries contribute disproportionately to proposed targets. Indigenous lands overlap extensively with the Global Safety Net. Conserving the Global Safety Net could support public health by reducing the potential for zoonotic diseases like COVID-19 from emerging in the future.

CITES and the Zoonotic Disease Content in International Wildlife Trade

International trade in wildlife is one contributing factor to zoonotic disease risk. Using descriptive statistics, this paper shows that in the last decades, the volume and pattern of internationally traded wildlife has changed considerably and, with it, the zoonotic pathogens that are traded. In an econometric analysis, we give evidence that an international environmental trade agreement could be used to limit the spread of zoonotic pathogens and disease. More specifically, combining zoonotic disease data with wildlife trade data from the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wildlife and Fauna (CITES), we show that making trade requirements more stringent leads to a decrease in the number of animals traded and, incidentally, also the number of zoonotic diseases that are traded. Our results contribute to the discussion of policy measures that manage the spread of zoonotic diseases.

Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation

The nexus of COVID-19 and climate change has so far brought attention to short-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, public health responses, and clean recovery stimulus packages. We take a more holistic approach, making five broad comparisons between the crises with five associated lessons for climate change mitigation policy. First, delay is costly. Second, policy design must overcome biases to human judgment. Third, inequality can be exacerbated without timely action. Fourth, global problems require multiple forms of international cooperation. Fifth, transparency of normative positions is needed to navigate value judgments at the science-policy interface. Learning from policy challenges during the COVID-19 crisis could enhance efforts to reduce GHG emissions and prepare humanity for future crises.

Emerging diseases, livestock expansion and biodiversity loss are positively related at global scale

Infectious diseases, biodiversity loss and livestock expansion are increasing globally, and examining patterns that link them is important for both public health and conservation. This study is a first attempt to analysis globally these patterns using General additive modelling and Structural equation modelling. A positive association between the number of infectious and parasitic diseases recorded in humans and the total number of animal species between nations was observed. A similar positive association between the number of outbreaks of human infectious diseases, corrected for the number of surveys, and the number of threatened animal species, corrected for the number of animal species, suggests that outbreaks of human infectious diseases are linked with threatened biodiversity. Results of the analyses over the longest period of the dataset (2000-2019) showed a positive correlation between the increasing number of cattle and the number of threatened species, a positive correlation between the increasing number of cattle and the number of outbreaks of human diseases, and a lack of correlation between the number of outbreaks and the number of threatened animal species. As a result, the growing importance of livestock on the planet, while threatening biodiversity, increasingly puts human and animal health at risk. This study calls for further analyses on the consequences of livestock expansion, which depends on several factors that vary by country, namely the growth of human population, changes in diet linked to the westernization of habits, agricultural industrialization and the integration into the world trade, but also the cultural values of livestock.

Guidelines for communicating about bats to prevent persecution in the time of COVID-19

While the current COVID-19 pandemic continues to wreak havoc on human health and national economies, conservationists are struggling to prevent misguided persecution of bats, which are misleadingly being blamed for spreading the disease. Although at a global level, such persecution is relatively uncommon, even a few misguided actions have the potential to cause irrevocable damage to already vulnerable species. Here, we draw on the latest findings from psychology, to explain why some conservation messaging may be reinforcing misleading negative associations. We provide guidelines to help ensure that conservation messaging is working to neutralize dangerous and unwarranted negative-associations between bats and disease-risk. We provide recommendations around three key areas of psychological science: (i) debunking misinformation; (ii) counteracting negative associations; and (iii) changing harmful social norms. We argue that only by carefully framing accurate, honest, and duly contextualized information, will we be able to best serve society and present an unbiased perspective of bats. We hope this guidance will help conservation practitioners and researchers to develop effective message framing strategies that minimize zoonotic health risks and support biodiversity and its associated ecosystem services.

The human-primate interface in the New Normal: Challenges and opportunities for primatologists in the COVID-19 era and beyond

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019 and human responses to the resulting COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 have rapidly changed many aspects of human behavior, including our interactions with wildlife. In this commentary, we identify challenges and opportunities at human-primate interfaces in light of COVID-19, focusing on examples from Asia, and make recommendations for researchers working with wild primates to reduce zoonosis risk and leverage research opportunities. First, we briefly review the evidence for zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2 and discuss risks of zoonosis at the human-primate interface. We then identify challenges that the pandemic has caused for primates, including reduced nutrition, increased intraspecific competition, and increased poaching risk, as well as challenges facing primatologists, including lost research opportunities. Subsequently, we highlight opportunities arising from pandemic-related lockdowns and public health messaging, including opportunities to reduce the intensity of problematic human-primate interfaces, opportunities to reduce the risk of zoonosis between humans and primates, opportunities to reduce legal and illegal trade in primates, new opportunities for research on human-primate interfaces, and opportunities for community education. Finally, we recommend specific actions that primatologists should take to reduce contact and aggression between humans and primates, to reduce demand for primates as pets, to reduce risks of zoonosis in the context of field research, and to improve understanding of human-primate interfaces. Reducing the risk of zoonosis and promoting the well-being of humans and primates at our interfaces will require substantial changes from "business as usual." We encourage primatologists to help lead the way.

Animal-based food systems are unsafe: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fosters the debate on meat consumption

Objective:

The current pandemic restarts a debate on permanently banning wildlife consumption in an effort to prevent further public health threats. In this commentary, we offer two ideas to enhance the discussion on foodborne zoonotic diseases in food systems.

Design:

First, we focus on the probable consequences that the loss of access to wildlife could cause to the status of food and nutrition security of many people in developing countries that rely on bushmeat to subsist. Second, we argue that all animal-based food systems, especially the ones based on intensive husbandry, present food safety threats.

Conclusion:

To ban the access to bushmeat without a rational analysis of all human meat production and consumption in the global animal-based food system will not help us to prevent future outbreaks.

COVID-19 and the Climate Emergency: Do Common Origins and Solutions Reside in the Global Agrifood System?

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the climate emergency are devastating symptoms of the unsustainability of human society and the decreasing resilience of an unhealthy planet. Here, we discuss whether both COVID-19 and the climate emergency have the same underlying causes, and therefore common solutions, and whether they are rooted in a failing global agrifood system.

Is SARS-CoV-2 Also an Enteric Pathogen With Potential Fecal-Oral Transmission? A COVID-19 Virological and Clinical Review

In as few as 3 months, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread and ravaged the world at an unprecedented speed in modern history, rivaling the 1918 flu pandemic. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2, the culprit virus, is highly contagious and stable in the environment and transmits predominantly among humans via the respiratory route. Accumulating evidence suggest that this virus, like many of its related viruses, may also be an enteric virus that can spread via the fecal-oral route. Such a hypothesis would also contribute to the rapidity and proliferation of this pandemic. Here we briefly summarize what is known about this family of viruses and literature basis of the hypothesis that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 is capable of infecting the gastrointestinal tract and shedding in the environment for potential human-to-human transmission.

Bouncing forward: a resilience approach to dealing with COVID-19 and future systemic shocks

Policy questions are often framed in popular discussion as situations where pulling the right levers will get the economy and society back on track after shocks and crises. This approach ignores how systems interact and how their systemic properties shape socioeconomic outcomes, leading to an over-emphasis on a limited set of characteristics, notably efficiency. We argue that this emphasis on efficiency in the operation, management and outcomes of various economic and social systems is not a conscious collective choice, but rather the response of the whole system to the incentives that individual components face. This has brought much of the world to rely upon complex, nested, and interconnected systems to deliver goods and services around the globe. While this approach has many benefits, the Covid-19 crisis shows how it has also reduced the resilience of key systems to shocks, and allowed failures to cascade from one system to others. This paper reviews the impact of COVID-19 on socioeconomic systems, discusses the notion of resilience, and provides specific recommendations on both integrating resilience analytics for recovery from the current crisis as well as on building resilient infrastructure to address future systemic challenges.

Coronaviruses and Australian bats: a review in the midst of a pandemic

Australia’s 81 bat species play vital ecological and economic roles via suppression of insect pests and maintenance of native forests through pollination and seed dispersal. Bats also host a wide diversity of coronaviruses globally, including several viral species that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2 and other emergent human respiratory coronaviruses. Although there are hundreds of studies of bat coronaviruses globally, there are only three studies of bat coronaviruses in Australian bat species, and no systematic studies of drivers of shedding. These limited studies have identified two betacoronaviruses and seven alphacoronaviruses, but less than half of Australian species are included in these studies and further research is therefore needed. There is no current evidence of spillover of coronaviruses from bats to humans in Australia, either directly or indirectly via intermediate hosts. The limited available data are inadequate to determine whether this lack of evidence indicates that spillover does not occur or occurs but is undetected. Conversely, multiple international agencies have flagged the potential transmission of human coronaviruses (including SARS CoV-2) from humans to bats, and the consequent threat to bat conservation and human health. Australia has a long history of bat research across a broad range of ecological and associated disciplines, as well as expertise in viral spillover from bats. This strong foundation is an ideal platform for developing integrative approaches to understanding bat health and sustainable protection of human health.