Network meta-analysis: a technique to gather evidence from direct and indirect comparisons

Nivolumab plus Ipilimumab versus Existing Immunotherapies in Patients with PD-L1-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

No head-to-head trials have compared the efficacy and safety of nivolumab (Niv) plus ipilimumab (Ipi) combination therapy (Niv+Ipi) and existing regimens with immunotherapies approved as first-line treatment in patients with programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1)-positive previously untreated advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We conducted a network meta-analysis of four relevant Phase Ⅲ trials to compare the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi, pembrolizumab (Pem) plus platinum-based chemotherapy (PBC) (Pem+PBC), Pem, Niv, or PBC using Bayesian analysis. The primary efficacy endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced NSCLC with PD-L1 expression ≥1%. The primary safety endpoint was the incidence of Grade 3–5 drug-related adverse events (G3–5AEs). Efficacy and safety were ranked using surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). With regard to PFS, Niv+Ipi was inferior to Pem+PBC, and superior to Pem, Niv, or PBC alone. SUCRA ranking showed Pem+PBC had the highest efficacy for PFS, followed by Niv+Ipi, Niv, PBC, and Pem. The safety outcome analysis revealed Niv+Ipi was generally well tolerated compared to existing immunotherapy regimens. These results provide clinical information regarding the efficacy and safety of Niv+Ipi and indicate the possibility of the Niv+Ipi combination as a new therapeutic option in PD-L1-positive advanced NSCLC.

Comparative Effectiveness of Orthoses for Thumb Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the best option among orthoses for carpometacarpal (CMC) osteoarthritis (OA) of the thumb, using a network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, Cochrane, and ClinicalTrials.gov registry databases were used. PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Cochrane, and other databases were used without language restrictions.

STUDY SELECTION

We searched randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on adults with OA of the thumb by studying any orthosis from the beginning to March 10, 2020.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were extracted and checked for accuracy and completeness by pairs of reviewers. Outcomes were pain and function. Comparative treatment effects were analyzed by random-effects model for direct pairwise comparisons and Bayesian network meta-analyses to integrate direct and indirect evidence.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Eleven RCTs involving 619 patients were included. We evaluated 5 groups, for 4 different orthoses: short thermoplastic CMC splint (rigid CMC) (n=5), long thermoplastic carpometacarpal-metacarpophalangeal splint (rigid CMC-MCP) (n=7), short neoprene CMC splint (soft CMC) (n=1), long neoprene CMC-MCP splint (soft CMC-MCP) (n=5), and one as a control group (n=5). Our results show that all splints were superior to placebo to reduce pain intensity and the top-ranked intervention was the rigid CMC-MCP (surface under the cumulative ranking curve analysis [SUCRA], score: 65.4). In function evaluation, we report a 71.6 SUCRA for rigid CMC.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the current evidence is unclear on the use of the splint in OA of the thumb, it is not known which orthosis is more effective and whether the orthosis is more effective than other interventions. The network meta-analysis shows that a long thermoplastic splint it is the best choice for pain relief and the short thermoplastic CMC splint is the best treatment to increase function. These results may suggest initial treatment with a long rigid orthosis and then a short rigid orthosis.

Data synthesis for crop variety evaluation. A review

Crop varieties should fulfill multiple requirements, including agronomic performance and product quality. Variety evaluations depend on data generated from field trials and sensory analyses, performed with different levels of participation from farmers and consumers. Such multi-faceted variety evaluation is expensive and time-consuming; hence, any use of these data should be optimized. Data synthesis can help to take advantage of existing and new data, combining data from different sources and combining it with expert knowledge to produce new information and understanding that supports decision-making. Data synthesis for crop variety evaluation can partly build on extant experiences and methods, but it also requires methodological innovation. We review the elements required to achieve data synthesis for crop variety evaluation, including (1) data types required for crop variety evaluation, (2) main challenges in data management and integration, (3) main global initiatives aiming to solve those challenges, (4) current statistical approaches to combine data for crop variety evaluation and (5) existing data synthesis methods used in evaluation of varieties to combine different datasets from multiple data sources. We conclude that currently available methods have the potential to overcome existing barriers to data synthesis and could set in motion a virtuous cycle that will encourage researchers to share data and collaborate on data-driven research.

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) for improving aphasia after stroke: a systematic review with network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) is an emerging approach for improving aphasia after stroke. However, it remains unclear what type of tDCS stimulation is most effective. Our aim was to give an overview of the evidence network regarding the efficacy and safety of tDCS and to estimate the effectiveness of the different stimulation types.

METHODS

This is a systematic review of randomized controlled trials with network meta-analysis (NMA). We searched the following databases until 4 February 2020: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Web of Science, and four other databases. We included studies with adult people with stroke. We compared any kind of active tDCS (anodal, cathodal, or dual, that is applying anodal and cathodal tDCS concurrently) regarding improvement of our primary outcome of functional communication, versus control, after stroke.

PROSPERO ID

CRD42019135696.

RESULTS

We included 25 studies with 471 participants. Our NMA showed that tDCS did not improve our primary outcome, that of functional communication. There was evidence of an effect of anodal tDCS, particularly over the left inferior frontal gyrus, in improving our secondary outcome, that of performance in naming nouns (SMD = 0.51; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.90). There was no difference in safety between tDCS and its control interventions, measured by the number of dropouts and adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Comparing different application/protocols of tDCS shows that the anodal application, particularly over the left inferior frontal gyrus, seems to be the most promising tDCS treatment option to improve performance in naming in people with stroke.

Efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: A systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIM

To compare the efficacy and tolerability of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in adults with type 2 diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Electronic databases were searched from inception to 24 April 2019 for randomized controlled trials reporting change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) at approximately 24 and/or 52 weeks for SGLT-2is and/or GLP-1RAs (classified as short- and long-acting). Bayesian network meta-analyses were conducted to compare within and between SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA classes for cardiometabolic efficacy and adverse events (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018091306).

RESULTS

Sixty-four trials (53 trials of 24 weeks; seven trials of 52 weeks; four trials of both 24 and 52 weeks), comprising 31 384 participants were identified. Compared with placebo, all treatments improved HbA1c. Long-acting GLP-1RAs reduced HbA1c compared with short-acting GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is, with semaglutide showing greater reduction compared with placebo [24 weeks: -1.49% (95% credible interval: -1.76, -1.22); 52 weeks: -1.38% (-2.05, -0.71)] and all other treatments. Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed benefits in body weight and waist circumference reduction, while SGLT-2is reduced blood pressure. SGLT-2is showed increased risk of genital infection in comparison with long-acting GLP-1RAs [odds ratio (95% credible interval): 5.26 (1.45, 25.00)], while GLP-1RAs showed increased risk of diarrhoea in comparison with SGLT-2is [short-acting GLP-1RAs: 1.65 (1.09, 2.49); long-acting GLP-1RAs: 2.23 (1.51, 3.28)]. No other differences were found between SGLT-2is and GLP-1RAs in adverse events.

CONCLUSION

Long-acting GLP-1RAs showed superiority in reducing HbA1c levels, body weight and waist circumference. SGLT-2is showed reductions in blood pressure levels. This review provides essential evidence to guide treatment recommendations in the management of type 2 diabetes.

Efficacy and Safety of LAMA/LABA Fixed-Dose Combination Therapies in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review of Direct and Indirect Treatment Comparisons

Background

This literature review assessed comparative efficacy and safety of long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting β₂-agonist (LAMA/LABA) fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) in patients with COPD and moderate-to-very severe airflow limitation, using evidence from direct (head-to-head) and indirect treatment comparisons.

Methods

Two systematic literature reviews were conducted to identify direct comparisons (head-to-head randomized controlled trials [RCTs]) and indirect comparisons (network meta-analyses [NMAs]; indirect treatment comparisons; meta-analyses) in patients with COPD with moderate-to-very severe airflow limitation. Study/Analysis characteristics, eligibility criteria, patient characteristics, and overall conclusions were extracted from relevant publications. The review of indirect comparisons focused on NMAs reporting efficacy outcomes at 12 and 24 weeks of treatment (established durations of symptomatic studies in COPD recommended by regulators).

Results

Direct comparisons: Four RCTs that provided head-to-head comparisons of LAMA/LABA FDCs were identified, and these varied in their study design, included patient population and reported endpoints. While some differences in lung function outcomes were noted, where assessed, LAMA/LABA FDCs had comparable efficacy in improving symptoms, health status, exacerbations, and comparable safety profiles. However, the differences in study methodology and patient characteristics between these studies made it difficult to draw generalizable conclusions regarding the comparative effectiveness of LAMA/LABA FDCs from the direct comparisons alone. Indirect comparisons: Six NMAs were identified that reported indirect comparisons between LAMA/LABA FDCs; five of these were within the pre-defined scope of this review. Although the scope of each NMA varied, all five concluded that LAMA/LABA FDCs were generally comparable in terms of lung function improvements, patient-reported outcomes, and safety (where assessed).

Conclusion

Although there were some inconsistencies between the outcomes of RCTs and NMAs for lung function, the totality of lung function, symptoms, exacerbations, and safety data suggests that currently available LAMA/LABA FDCs have comparable efficacy and safety in patients with COPD and moderate-to-very severe airflow limitation.

Systematic review with network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of robotic-assisted arm training for improving activities of daily living and upper limb function after stroke

Background

The aim of the present study was to to assess the relative effectiveness of the various types of electromechanical-assisted arm devices and approaches after stroke.

Method

This is a systematic review of randomized controlled trials with network meta-analysis. Our primary endpoints were activities of daily living (measured e.g. with Barthel-Index) and hand-arm function (measured e.g. with the Fugl-Meyer Scale for the upper limb), our secondary endpoints were hand-arm strength (measured e.g. with the Motricity Index) and safety. We used conventional arm training as our reference category and compared it with different intervention categories of electromechanical-assisted arm training depending on the therapy approach. We did indirect comparisons between the type of robotic device. We considered the heterogeneity of the studies by means of confidence and prediction intervals.

Results

Fifty five randomized controlled trials, including 2654 patients with stroke, met our inclusion criteria.

For the primary endpoints activities of daily living and hand-arm function and the secondary endpoint hand-arm strength, none of the interventions achieved statistically significant improvements, taking into account the heterogeneity of the studies.

Safety did not differ with regard to the individual interventions of arm rehabilitation after stroke.

Conclusion

The outcomes of robotic-assisted arm training were comparable with conventional therapy.

Indirect comparisons suggest that no one type of robotic device is any better or worse than any other device, providing no clear evidence to support the selection of specific types of robotic device to promote hand-arm recovery.

Trial registration

PROSPERO 2017 CRD42017075411

What Is the Most Appropriate Induction Regimen for the Treatment of HIV-Associated Cryptococcal Meningitis When the Recommended Regimen Is Not Available? Evidence From a Network Meta-Analysis

Aims

Our object was to find the most appropriate, most effective, and most readily available of four induction regimens for HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis (CM) (Regimen A: 1 week of AmB plus 5-FC followed by 1 week of fluconazole, Regimen B: 1 week of AmB plus fluconazole followed by 1 week of fluconazole, Regimen C: 2 weeks of AmB plus 5-FC, Regimen D: 2 weeks of AmB plus fluconazole), given the vast differences between resource-limited and resource-abundant settings regarding therapeutic drug accessibility, availability, and affordability for HIV-associated (CM).

Methods

We conducted a network meta-analysis to compare the therapeutic efficacy and safety of four different induction treatment regimens.

Results

The 10-week mortality of Regimen A was significantly lower than that of Regimen B and D, and the 2-week mortality of Regimen A was significantly lower than that of Regimen B. Furthermore, there were no statistically significant differences in 10-week mortality, 2-week mortality, as well as in effective fungicidal activity (EFA) over the first 2 weeks among Regimens B, C, and D. The statistical differences in adverse events between Regimen B and Regimen D, and Regimen C and Regimen D were not calculated to be significant.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that, 1 week of AmB plus 5-FC followed by 1 week of fluconazole is superior to the three other studied regimens, and that when 5-FC is not available, accessible, or affordable, 2 weeks of AmB plus fluconazole or 1 week of AmB plus fluconazole followed by 1 week of fluconazole is an appropriate substitution for 2 weeks of AmB plus 5-FC.

Nintendo WiiTM versus Xbox KinectTM for functional locomotion in people with Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

Purpose: To investigate the effectiveness of commercial exergames treatments on people with Parkinson's disease (PD), a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomised controlled trials (RCT) was performed to evaluate functional locomotion effects in patients with PD.Methods: A comprehensive search on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, the Cochrane, and other databases without language restrictions was conducted. References and reviews were cross-checked for possible studies. RCTs from 2012 were included. Seven studies with 236 participants were included in the NMA that used a random-effect Frequentist model to investigate the standard mean difference of pooled effect sizes change in functional locomotion between baseline and delayed retention tests on six comparisons.Results: The direct comparisons Kinect: Control (n = 4), Wii: Control (n = 5) and the indirect-network comparison Kinect: Wii (n = 1) determine that Nintendo Wii™ may be the best choice in functional locomotion improvements.Conclusions: These network meta-analytic findings show that Kinect and Wii show immediate positive effects on functional locomotion in people with PD. Compared with Kinect RCTs, Wii may be considered the best therapy for providing functional recovery in PD.Implications for rehabilitationExergames rehabilitation reveals intervention benefits for functional locomotion in people with PD.In patients with cognitive disorders, Wii's platform can be considered a visual reference and a cue to facilitate patients with freezing.Nintendo Wii seems to be a better device for locomotion rehabilitation in people with PD than Xbox Kinect.

Pharmacological treatment of neuropsychiatric symptoms of dementia: a network meta-analysis protocol

Background

Neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) of dementia are a common issue in dementia patients which can lead to poor medical and functional outcomes. Pharmacological interventions are its treatment of choice. However, whether to use pharmacological treatments in this population and which drug should be preferred remain controversial. We therefore aimed to compare and rank pharmacological interventions for NPS according to their efficacy and acceptability profiles by quantifying information from randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

Methods

We will include all RCTs reported as double-blind and comparing one active drug with another or with placebo that compare cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs), N-methyl-D-aspartic acid (NMDA) receptor modulators, antipsychotics, antidepressants, and mood stabilisers. Studies will be retrieved by searching electronic databases, including Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, MEDLINE, Clinicaltrial.govs, EMBASE, and with no date or language restrictions. The primary outcomes were efficacy (change in overall symptoms) and acceptability (all-cause discontinuation). The network meta-analysis (NMA) will be conducted in R software within a Bayesian framework. The quality of evidence will be evaluated using the Cochrane risk of bias tool, and the GRADE approach. We will conduct subgroup analyses to assess the robustness of our findings.

Results

The results of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal.

Conclusions

This systematic review will synthesize the available evidence on the comparative efficacy of different pharmacological approaches in the management of overall NPS, agitation, psychosis, apathy and depressive symptoms in dementia patients. The results of the present NMA will influence evidence-based treatment decisions for clinicians.

Efficacy of Budesonide/Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate Metered Dose Inhaler (BGF MDI) Versus Other Inhaled Corticosteroid/Long-Acting Muscarinic Antagonist/Long-Acting β2-Agonist (ICS/LAMA/LABA) Triple Combinations in COPD: A Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Triple inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting β₂-agonist (ICS/LAMA/LABA) combination therapy is recommended for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who experience further exacerbations/symptoms on dual LAMA/LABA or ICS/LABA therapy. The relative efficacy of budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler 320/18/9.6 µg (BGF MDI) in COPD was compared with other ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose and open combination therapies in a network meta-analysis (NMA).

METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted to identify randomized controlled trials of at least 10-week duration, including at least one fixed-dose or open combination triple therapy arm, in patients with moderate to very severe COPD. Studies were assessed for methodological quality and risk of bias. A three-level hierarchical Bayesian NMA model was used to determine the exacerbation rate per patient per year as well as the following outcomes at week 24: changes from baseline in pre-dose trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), post-dose peak FEV₁, and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score; proportion of SGRQ responders; and Transition Dyspnea Index focal score. Change from baseline in rescue medication use over weeks 12-24 was also analyzed. Meta-regression and sensitivity analyses were used to assess heterogeneity across studies.

RESULTS

Eighteen studies (n = 29,232 patients) contributed to the NMA. ICS/LABA dual combinations were combined as a single treatment group to create a connected network. Across all outcomes, there were no statistically significant differences between BGF MDI and other triple ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose (fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol and beclomethasone dipropionate/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate) and open combinations with data available within the network. Results from sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were consistent with the base-case scenario.

CONCLUSION

This NMA suggested that BGF MDI has comparable efficacy to other ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose and open triple combination therapies in reducing exacerbations and improving lung function and symptoms in patients with moderate to very severe COPD. Further research is warranted as additional evidence regarding triple therapies, especially fixed-dose combinations, becomes available.

Organised inpatient (stroke unit) care for stroke: network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Organised inpatient (stroke unit) care is provided by multi-disciplinary teams that manage stroke patients. This can been provided in a ward dedicated to stroke patients (stroke ward), with a peripatetic stroke team (mobile stroke team), or within a generic disability service (mixed rehabilitation ward). Team members aim to provide co-ordinated multi-disciplinary care using standard approaches to manage common post-stroke problems.

OBJECTIVES

• To assess the effects of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care compared with an alternative service. • To use a network meta-analysis (NMA) approach to assess different types of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care for people admitted to hospital after a stroke (the standard comparator was care in a general ward). Originally, we conducted this systematic review to clarify: • The characteristic features of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care? • Whether organised inpatient (stroke unit) care provide better patient outcomes than alternative forms of care? • If benefits are apparent across a range of patient groups and across different approaches to delivering organised stroke unit care? Within the current version, we wished to establish whether previous conclusions were altered by the inclusion of new outcome data from recent trials and further analysis via NMA.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group Trials Register (2 April 2019); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL; 2019, Issue 4), in the Cochrane Library (searched 2 April 2019); MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to 1 April 2019); Embase Ovid (1974 to 1 April 2019); and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL; 1982 to 2 April 2019). In an effort to identify further published, unpublished, and ongoing trials, we searched seven trial registries (2 April 2019). We also performed citation tracking of included studies, checked reference lists of relevant articles, and contacted trialists.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled clinical trials comparing organised inpatient stroke unit care with an alternative service (typically contemporary conventional care), including comparing different types of organised inpatient (stroke unit) care for people with stroke who are admitted to hospital.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors assessed eligibility and trial quality. We checked descriptive details and trial data with co-ordinators of the original trials, assessed risk of bias, and applied GRADE. The primary outcome was poor outcome (death or dependency (Rankin score 3 to 5) or requiring institutional care) at the end of scheduled follow-up. Secondary outcomes included death, institutional care, dependency, subjective health status, satisfaction, and length of stay. We used direct (pairwise) comparisons to compare organised inpatient (stroke unit) care with an alternative service. We used an NMA to confirm the relative effects of different approaches.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 29 trials (5902 participants) that compared organised inpatient (stroke unit) care with an alternative service: 20 trials (4127 participants) compared organised (stroke unit) care with a general ward, six trials (982 participants) compared different forms of organised (stroke unit) care, and three trials (793 participants) incorporated more than one comparison. Compared with the alternative service, organised inpatient (stroke unit) care was associated with improved outcomes at the end of scheduled follow-up (median one year): poor outcome (odds ratio (OR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 to 0.87; moderate-quality evidence), death (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.88; moderate-quality evidence), death or institutional care (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.85; moderate-quality evidence), and death or dependency (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.85; moderate-quality evidence). Evidence was of very low quality for subjective health status and was not available for patient satisfaction. Analysis of length of stay was complicated by variations in definition and measurement plus substantial statistical heterogeneity (I² = 85%). There was no indication that organised stroke unit care resulted in a longer hospital stay. Sensitivity analyses indicated that observed benefits remained when the analysis was restricted to securely randomised trials that used unequivocally blinded outcome assessment with a fixed period of follow-up. Outcomes appeared to be independent of patient age, sex, initial stroke severity, stroke type, and duration of follow-up. When calculated as the absolute risk difference for every 100 participants receiving stroke unit care, this equates to two extra survivors, six more living at home, and six more living independently. The analysis of different types of organised (stroke unit) care used both direct pairwise comparisons and NMA. Direct comparison of stroke ward versus general ward: 15 trials (3523 participants) compared care in a stroke ward with care in general wards. Stroke ward care showed a reduction in the odds of a poor outcome at the end of follow-up (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.91; moderate-quality evidence). Direct comparison of mobile stroke team versus general ward: two trials (438 participants) compared care from a mobile stroke team with care in general wards. Stroke team care may result in little difference in the odds of a poor outcome at the end of follow-up (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.22; low-quality evidence). Direct comparison of mixed rehabilitation ward versus general ward: six trials (630 participants) compared care in a mixed rehabilitation ward with care in general wards. Mixed rehabilitation ward care showed a reduction in the odds of a poor outcome at the end of follow-up (OR 0.65, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.90; moderate-quality evidence). In a NMA using care in a general ward as the comparator, the odds of a poor outcome were as follows: stroke ward - OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.89, moderate-quality evidence; mobile stroke team - OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.34, low-quality evidence; mixed rehabilitation ward - OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.95, low-quality evidence.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We found moderate-quality evidence that stroke patients who receive organised inpatient (stroke unit) care are more likely to be alive, independent, and living at home one year after the stroke. The apparent benefits were independent of patient age, sex, initial stroke severity, or stroke type, and were most obvious in units based in a discrete stroke ward. We observed no systematic increase in the length of inpatient stay, but these findings had considerable uncertainty.

Brigatinib and Alectinib for ALK Rearrangement-Positive Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer With or Without Central Nervous System Metastasis: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

To date, no head-to-head trials have compared the efficacy of brigatinib and alectinib against anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangement-positive (ALK-p), ALK-inhibitor-naïve, advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with central nervous system (CNS) metastasis. We conducted an indirect treatment comparison (ITC) between brigatinib and alectinib, with crizotinib as a common comparator, using a Bayesian model with non-informative prior distribution and assessed the between-study heterogeneity of the studies. The primary efficacy endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS), and efficacy was ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) curve values. ITC analysis showed that there were no significant differences in PFS between the brigatinib and alectinib arms. However, the SUCRA values revealed that alectinib ranked the highest by efficacy in the overall patient population, whereas brigatinib ranked the highest by efficacy in the CNS metastasis sub-group. Although there were no significant differences in the incidence of G3–5 adverse events between the brigatinib and alectinib arms in the overall patient population, the data were deemed insufficient for the CNS metastasis sub-group analysis. This study provides critical information to clinicians regarding the efficacy of brigatinib for ALK-p, ALK-inhibitor-naïve, advanced NSCLC patients, with and without CNS metastasis. Larger randomized, controlled trials are warranted to confirm our results.

Oral antifungal therapies for toenail onychomycosis: a systematic review with network meta-analysis toenail mycosis: network meta-analysis

Aim: Toenail fungal infections account for half of all nail disease cases, and a highly negative impact on patient quality of life. Our aim was to compare the efficacy and safety of commercially available oral antifungals for onychomycosis.Methods: A systematic review was performed in PubMed and Scopus. Randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of oral antifungals on mycological cure, discontinuation and adverse events were included. Network meta-analyses were built for each outcome. Results were reported as odds ratios (OR) with 95% credibility intervals (CrI). Ranking probabilities were calculated by surface under the cumulative ranking analysis (SUCRA).Results: We included 40 trials (n = 9568). Albaconazole 400 mg (OR 0.02 [95% CrI 0.01-0.07] versus placebo), followed by posaconazole 200-400 mg and terbinafine 250-350 mg were considered the best therapies (SUCRA probabilities over 75%). For the networks of discontinuation and individual adverse events, few significant differences among treatments were observed, but itraconazole 400 mg was considered the safest drug (SUCRA around 25%). Albaconazole 400 mg, posaconazole 200-400 mg, and terbinafine 250-350 mg were the most effective therapies for onychomycosis, while itraconazole 400 mg was the safest.Conclusion: The profile of albaconazole and posaconazole compared to current first-line therapies should be further investigated in well-designed trials.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of incentive- and non-incentive-based interventions for increasing blood donations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Blood services are tasked with efficiently maintaining a reliable blood supply, and there has been much debate over the use of incentives to motivate prosocial activities. Thus, it is important to understand the relative effectiveness of interventions for increasing donations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This systematic review used a broad search strategy to identify randomized controlled trials comparing interventions for increasing blood donations. After full-text review, 28 trials from 25 published articles were included. Sufficient data for meta-analysis were available from 27 trials. Monetary incentives were assumed to be equivalent regardless of value, and non-monetary incentives were assumed to be equivalent regardless of type. Non-incentive-based interventions identified included existing practice, letters, telephone calls, questionnaires, and the combination of a letter & telephone call. A network meta-analysis was used to pool the results from identified trials. A subgroup analysis was performed in populations of donors and non-donors as sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The best performing interventions were letter & telephone call and telephone call-only with odds ratios of 3·08 (95% CI: 1·99, 4·75) and 1·99 (95% CI: 1·47, 2·69) compared to existing practice, respectively. With considerable uncertainty around the pooled effect, we found no evidence that monetary incentives were effective at increasing donations compared to existing practice. Non-monetary incentives were only effective in the donor subgroup.

CONCLUSION

When pooling across modes of interventions, letter & telephone call and telephone call-only are effective at increasing blood donations. The effectiveness of incentives remains unclear with limited, disparate evidence identified.

What Is the Best Evidence for Management of Displaced Midshaft Clavicle Fractures? A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis of 22 Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND

Displaced mid-third clavicle fractures are common, and their management remains unclear. Although several meta-analyses have compared specific operative techniques with nonoperative management, it is not possible to compare different operative constructs with one another using a standard meta-analysis. Conversely, a network meta-analysis allows comparisons among more than two treatment arms, using both direct and indirect comparisons between interventions across many trials. To our knowledge, no network meta-analysis has been performed to compare the multiple treatment options for displaced clavicle fractures.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We performed a network meta-analysis of randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) to determine from among the approaches used to treat displaced midshaft clavicle fractures: (1) the intervention with the highest chance of union at 1 year, (2) the intervention with the lowest risk of revision surgery, and (3) the intervention with the highest functional outcome scores. Secondarily, we also (4) compared the surgical subtypes in the available RCTs on the same above endpoints.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were reviewed for relevant randomized controlled trials published up to July 25, 2018. Two hundred and eighty four papers were reviewed, with 22 meeting inclusion criteria of RCTs with appropriate randomization techniques, adult population, minimum of 1 year follow-up and including at least one operative treatment arm. In total, 1002 patients were treated with a plate construct, 378 with an intramedullary device, and 585 patients were managed nonoperatively. Treatment subtypes included locked intramedullary devices (56), unlocked intramedullary devices (322), anterior plating (89), anterosuperior plating (150), superior plating (449) or plating not otherwise specified (314). We performed a network meta-analysis to compare and rank the treatments for displaced clavicle fractures. We considered the following outcomes: union achievement, revision surgery risk and functional outcomes (DASH and Constant Scores). The minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was considered for both Constant and DASH scores to be at 8 points, representing the average of MCID scores reported for both DASH and Constant in the evidence, respectively.

RESULTS

Union achievement was lower in patients treated nonoperatively (88.9%), and higher in patients treated operatively (96.7%, relative risk [RR] 1.128 [95% CI 1.1 to 1.17]; p < 0.001), Number needed to treat (NNT) = 10). Union achievement increased with any plate construct (97.8%, RR 1.13 [95% CI 1.1 to 1.7]; p < 0.0001, NNT = 9) and with anterior or anterosuperior plates (99.3%, RR 1.14 [95% CI 1.1 to 1.8]; p < 0.0001, NNT = 8). Risk of reoperation, when considering planned removal of hardware, was similar across all treatment arms. Lastly, operative treatment outperformed nonoperative treatment with minor improvements in DASH and Constant scores, though not approaching the MCID. At the subtype level, anterosuperior plating ranked highest in DASH and Constant functional scores with mean differences reaching 10-point improvement for Constant scores (95% CI 4.4 to 2.5) and 7.6 point improvement for DASH (95% CI 5.2 to 20).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that surgical treatment led to a greater likelihood of union at 1 year of follow-up among adult patients with displaced mid-third clavicle fractures. In aggregate, surgical treatment did not increase functional scores by amounts that patients were likely to consider clinically important. Use of specific subtypes of plating (anterior, anterosuperior) resulted in improvements in the Constant score that were slightly above the MCID but did not reach the MCID for the DASH score, suggesting that any outcomes-score benefits favoring surgery were likely to be imperceptible or small. In light of these findings, we believe patients can be informed that surgery for this injury can increase the likelihood of union incrementally (about 10 patients would need to undergo surgery to avoid one nonunion), but they should not expect better function than they would achieve without surgery; most patients can avoid surgery altogether with little absolute risk of nonunion. Patients who opt for surgery must be told that the decision should be weighed against complications and the possibility of undergoing a second procedure for hardware removal. Patients opting not to have surgery for acute midshaft clavicle fractures can be told that nonunion occurs in slightly more than 10% of patients, and that these can be more difficult to manage than acute fractures.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level I, therapeutic study.

Are all stem cells equal? Systematic review, evidence map, and meta-analyses of preclinical stem cell-based therapies for bronchopulmonary dysplasia

Regenerative stem cell-based therapies for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), the most common preterm birth complication, demonstrate promise in animals. Failure to objectively appraise available preclinical data and identify knowledge gaps could jeopardize clinical translation. We performed a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of preclinical studies testing cell-based therapies in experimental neonatal lung injury. Fifty-three studies assessing 15 different cell-based therapies were identified: 35 studied the effects of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) almost exclusively in hyperoxic rodent models of BPD. Exploratory NMAs, for select outcomes, suggest that MSCs are the most effective therapy. Although a broad range of promising cell-based therapies has been assessed, few head-to-head comparisons and unclear risk of bias exists. Successful clinical translation of cell-based therapies demands robust preclinical experimental design with appropriately blinded, randomized, and statistically powered studies, based on biological plausibility for a given cell product, in standardized models and endpoints with transparent reporting.

Comparing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of self-management interventions in four high-priority chronic conditions in Europe (COMPAR-EU): a research protocol

INTRODUCTION

Population ageing and increasing chronic illness burden have sparked interest in innovative care models. While self-management interventions (SMIs) are drawing increasing attention, evidence of their efficacy is mostly based on pairwise meta-analysis, generally derived from randomised controlled trials comparing interventions versus a control or no intervention. As such, relevant efficacy data for comparisons among different SMIs that can be applied to specific chronic conditions are missing. Therefore, the relevance of the available evidence for decision-making at clinical, organisational and policy levels is limited.

AIM

To identify, compare and rank the most effective and cost-effective SMIs for adults with four high-priority chronic conditions: type 2 diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,and heart failure.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

All activities will be conducted as part of the cost-effectiveness of self-management interventions in four high-priority chronic conditions in Europe(COMPAR-EU, Comparing effectiveness of self-management interventions in 4 high priority chronic diseases inEurope) Project, an European Union (EU)-funded project designed to bridge the gap between current knowledge and practice on SMIs. In the first phase of the project, we will develop and validate a taxonomy, and a Core Outcome Set for each condition. These activities will inform a series of systematic review and network meta-analysis about the effectiveness of SMIs. We will also perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of the most effective SMIs and an evaluation of contextual factors. We will finally develop tailored decision-making tools for the different relevant stakeholders.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the local ethics committee (University Institute for Primary Care Research - IDIAP Jordi Gol). All patients and other stakeholders will provide informed consent prior to participation. This project has been funded by the EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 754936). Results will be of interest to relevant stakeholder groups (patients, professionals, managers, policymakers and industry), and will be disseminated in a tailored multi-pronged approach that will include deployment of an interactive platform.

Comparative effectiveness of catheter ablation devices in the treatment of atrial fibrillation: a network meta-analysis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation is most commonly performed using radiofrequency (RF) and cryoballoon (CB) catheters. Ablation Index is a novel lesion-quality marker associated with improved outcomes in RF ablation. Due to lack of direct comparative evidence between the latest generations of technologies, there is uncertainty regarding the best treatment option. Aim: To conduct a network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of RF with Ablation Index to other catheter ablation devices in the treatment of AF. Methods: Searches for randomized and nonrandomized prospective comparative studies of ablation catheters were conducted in multiple databases. The outcome of interest was 12-month freedom from atrial arrhythmias after a single ablation procedure. Studies were grouped as high-, low- and unclear-quality based on study design and balanced baseline patient characteristics. Bayesian hierarchical network meta-analysis was conducted and results presented as relative risk ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Results: 12 studies evaluating five different catheter ablation devices were included. Radiofrequency ablation with Ablation Index was associated with statistically significantly greater probability of 12-month freedom from atrial arrhythmias than Arctic Front (relative risk: 1.77; 95% CrI: 1.21-2.87), Arctic Front Advance™ (1.41; 1.06-2.47), THERMOCOOL™ (1.34; 1.17-1.48) and THERMOCOOL SMARTTOUCH™ (1.09; 1-1.3). Results were robust in multiple sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: Radiofrequency catheter with Ablation Index is superior to currently available options for 12-month freedom from atrial arrhythmias after AF ablation. This study provides decision-makers with robust, pooled, comparative evidence of the latest ablation technologies.

Evaluation of immunotherapy and targeted therapy treatment on renal cell carcinoma: A Bayesian network analysis

Clinical trials have previously assessed various therapies for renal cell carcinoma (RCC); however, there is currently a lack of direct comparisons between these therapies. The present study identified published studies on RCC through Web of Science, PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library of Controlled Trials and Clinical trials.gov that were written in the English language and published by February 2019. The data were selected and extracted independently by two reviewers. Standard pair-wise meta-analyses were performed using Stata. Network meta-analyses were subsequently performed using WinBUGS (version 1.4.3). The primary outcome of the present study was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary outcomes included overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR) and adverse events of various targeted therapies. The results were presented as cumulative odds ratio, hazard ratio, corresponding 95% confidence interval and the surface under the cumulative ranking curve, which was used to rank the probabilities and outcome of each treatment in RCC. A total of 31 eligible publications for 18 randomized controlled trials consisting of 11,498 participants were included in the present study. The network meta-analyses revealed that a combination of lenvantinib and everolimus ranked first out of 16 treatments in terms of PFS, OS and ORR (probability of 54.0, 53.4 and 61.0%, respectively).

A 24-step guide on how to design, conduct, and successfully publish a systematic review and meta-analysis in medical research

To inform evidence-based practice in health care, guidelines and policies require accurate identification, collation, and integration of all available evidence in a comprehensive, meaningful, and time-efficient manner. Approaches to evidence synthesis such as carefully conducted systematic reviews and meta-analyses are essential tools to summarize specific topics. Unfortunately, not all systematic reviews are truly systematic, and their quality can vary substantially. Since well-conducted evidence synthesis typically involves a complex set of steps, we believe formulating a cohesive, step-by-step guide on how to conduct a systemic review and meta-analysis is essential. While most of the guidelines on systematic reviews focus on how to report or appraise systematic reviews, they lack guidance on how to synthesize evidence efficiently. To facilitate the design and development of evidence syntheses, we provide a clear and concise, 24-step guide on how to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies and clinical trials. We describe each step, illustrate it with concrete examples, and provide relevant references for further guidance. The 24-step guide (1) simplifies the methodology of conducting a systematic review, (2) provides healthcare professionals and researchers with methodologically sound tools for conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and (3) it can enhance the quality of existing evidence synthesis efforts. This guide will help its readers to better understand the complexity of the process, appraise the quality of published systematic reviews, and better comprehend (and use) evidence from medical literature.

A criterion-based approach to systematic and transparent comparative effectiveness: a case study in psoriatic arthritis

Aim: Indirect treatment comparisons are used when no direct comparison is available. Comparison networks should satisfy the transitivity assumption, that is, equal likelihood of treatment assignment for a given patient based on comparability of studies. Materials & methods: Seven criteria were evaluated across 18 randomized controlled trials in psoriatic arthritis: inclusion/exclusion criteria, clinical trial design and follow-up, patient-level baseline characteristics, disease severity, prior therapies, concomitant and extended-trial treatment and placebo response differences. Results: Across studies, placebo was a common comparator, and key efficacy end points were reported. Collectively, several potential sources of insufficient transitivity were identified, most often related to trial design and population differences. Conclusion: Potential challenges in satisfying transitivity occur frequently and should be evaluated thoroughly.

Comparative efficacy of non-pharmacological interventions on agitation in people with dementia: A systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Agitation in people with dementia is common and distressing and can lead to increased caregiver burden. However, medications often have adverse reactions and limited effectiveness. Thus, non-pharmacological interventions are being increasingly implemented.

OBJECTIVES

To compare and rank the efficacy of different non-pharmacological interventions in the management of agitation in people with dementia.

DESIGN

Bayesian network meta-analysis.

METHODS

A comprehensive electronic literature search was performed in five English databases and three Chinese databases to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that were published up to January 2019. A random-effects model was selected to conduct traditional meta-analysis to directly examine the efficacy of different non-pharmacological interventions. The consistency model was selected to conduct a network meta-analysis to evaluate the relative effects and rank probability of different non-pharmacological interventions.

RESULTS

A total of 65 RCTs were included in this network meta-analysis involving 11 different non-pharmacological interventions. Network meta-analysis showed that massage therapy, animal-assisted intervention, and personally tailored intervention were associated with more substantial reductions in agitation compared with other interventions and controls.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirmed the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions for ameliorating agitation in people with dementia and recommended several interventions for clinical practice. Healthcare professionals should be encouraged to apply promising non-pharmacological interventions (e.g. massage therapy, animal-assisted intervention and personally tailored intervention) for people with dementia during routine care.

Relative efficacy of treatment options in transplant-ineligible newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: results from a systematic literature review and network meta-analysis

Established treatments for transplant-ineligible (TNE) patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) include melphalan and prednisone (MP) combined with either bortezomib (VMP) or thalidomide (MPT), or lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone (Rd). New treatments for TNE NDMM include Rd plus bortezomib (RVd) and daratumumab plus VMP (VMP + D), daratumumab plus lenalidomide and dexamethasone (D + Rd). Relative efficacy of these treatments was compared using a network meta-analysis. Eight trials identified by a systematic literature review were included in the primary analysis; hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were used. Rd was superior to other MP-based regimens for OS and PFS. There was strong evidence that, compared with Rd, both D + Rd and RVd improved PFS (HR 0.57; 95% credible interval (CrI) 0.43, 0.73 and HR 0.72; 95% CrI 0.56, 0.91, respectively). However, there was strong evidence only for RVd in respect to OS (HR 0.72; 95% CrI 0.52, 0.96).

Are Nonpharmacologic Interventions for Chronic Low Back Pain More Cost Effective Than Usual Care? Proof of Concept Results From a Markov Model

STUDY DESIGN

Markov model.

OBJECTIVE

Examine the 1-year effectiveness and cost-effectiveness (societal and payer perspectives) of adding nonpharmacologic interventions for chronic low back pain (CLBP) to usual care using a decision analytic model-based approach.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

Treatment guidelines now recommend many safe and effective nonpharmacologic interventions for CLBP. However, little is known regarding their effectiveness in subpopulations (e.g., high-impact chronic pain patients), nor about their cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

The model included four health states: high-impact chronic pain (substantial activity limitations); no pain; and two others without activity limitations, but with higher (moderate-impact) or lower (low-impact) pain. We estimated intervention-specific transition probabilities for these health states using individual patient-level data from 10 large randomized trials covering 17 nonpharmacologic therapies. The model was run for nine 6-week cycles to approximate a 1-year time horizon. Quality-adjusted life-year weights were based on six-dimensional health state short form scores; healthcare costs were based on 2003 to 2015 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data; and lost productivity costs used in the societal perspective were based on reported absenteeism. Results were generated for two target populations: (1) a typical baseline mix of patients with CLBP (25% low-impact, 35% moderate-impact, and 40% high-impact chronic pain) and (2) high-impact chronic pain patients.

RESULTS

From the societal perspective, all but two of the therapies were cost effective (<$50,000/quality-adjusted life-year) for a typical patient mix and most were cost saving. From the payer perspective fewer were cost saving, but the same number was cost-effective. Assuming all patients in the model have high-impact chronic pain increases the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of most, but not all, therapies indicating that substantial benefits are possible in this subpopulation.

CONCLUSION

Modeling leverages the evidence produced from clinical trials to provide more information than is available in the published studies. We recommend modeling for all existing studies of nonpharmacologic interventions for CLBP.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4.

Exploring the use of network meta-analysis in education: examining the correlation between ORF and text complexity measures

Calls for empirical investigations of the Common Core standards (CCSSs) for English Language Arts have been widespread, particularly in the area of text complexity in the primary grades (e.g., Hiebert & Mesmer Educational Research, 42(1), 44-51, 2013). The CCSSs mention that qualitative methods (such as Fountas and Pinnell) and quantitative methods (such as Lexiles) can be used to gauge text complexity (CCSS Initiative, 2010). However, researchers have questioned the validity of these tools for several decades (e.g., Hiebert & Pearson, 2010). In an effort to establish criterion validity of these tools, individual studies have compared how well they correlate with actual student reading performance measures, most commonly reading comprehension and/or oral-reading fluency (ORF). ORF is a key aspect of reading success and as such is often used for progress monitoring purposes. However, to date, studies have not been able to evaluate different text complexity tools and relation to reading outcomes across studies. This is challenging because the pair-wise meta-analytic model is not able to synthesize several independent variables that differ both within and across studies. Therefore, it is unable to answer pressing research questions in education, such as, which text complexity tool is most correlated with student ORF (and, thus, a good measure of text difficulty)? This question is timely given that the Common Core State Standards explicitly mention various text complexity tools; yet, the validity of such tools has been repeatedly questioned by researchers. This article provides preliminary evidence to answer that question using an approach borrowed from the field of medicine-Network Meta-Analysis (NMA; Lumley Statistics in Medicine, 21, 2313-2324, 2002). A systematic search yielded 5 studies using 19 different text complexity tools with ORF as the reading outcome measured. Both a frequentist and Bayesian NMA were conducted to pool the correlations of a given text complexity tool with students' ORF. While the results differed slightly across the two approaches, there is preliminary evidence in support of the hypothesis that text complexity tools which incorporate more fine-grained sub-lexical variables were more strongly correlated with student outcomes. While the results of this example cannot be generalized due to the low sample size, this article shows how NMA is a promising new analytic tool for synthesizing educational research.

The relation between anxious personality traits and fear generalization in healthy subjects: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Anxious personality characteristics form a risk factor for anxiety disorders. A proposed mechanistic pathway is that anxious personality could lead to greater vulnerability by increasing fear generalization. Here, we investigate if there is evidence for this relationship before the onset of pathological anxiety, with a meta-analysis in healthy subjects.

METHODS

Our search (anxious personality & fear generalization) was performed in PubMed, PsychInfo, and Embase and via snowballing.

RESULTS

In total, 4892 studies were screened and 19 studies (1348 participants) were included in the current review (meta-analysis: 18 studies, 1310 participants). The meta-analysis showed a significant, small, positive relationship between anxious personality and fear generalization (r = .19, 95%CI [.126, .260], p <.001). No moderators of the relationship were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

The identified robust relation suggests that people who score high on anxious personality have a somewhat stronger tendency to generalize fear to safe or novel situations. This might explain their vulnerability to anxiety disorders mechanistically, yet future (prospective) studies are warranted to confirm the hypothesized directionality of this effect.

Comparative efficacy of 13 immunosuppressive agents for idiopathic membranous nephropathy in adults with nephrotic syndrome: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to compare the effectiveness of 13 types of immunosuppressive agents used to treat idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) in adults with nephrotic syndrome.

DESIGN

Systematic review and network meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, EMbase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Clinical trials, SinoMed, Chinese Biomedicine, CNKI, WanFang and Chongqing VIP Information databases were comprehensively searched until February 2018.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) comparing the effects of different immunosuppressive treatments in adult patients with IMN and nephrotic syndrome were included, and all included RCTs had a study-duration of at least 6 months.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two reviewers independently screened articles, extracted data and assessed study quality. Standard pairwise meta-analysis was performed using DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model.

RESULTS

This study ultimately included 48 RCTs with 2736 patients and 13 immunosuppressive agents. The network meta-analysis results showed that most regimens, except for leflunomide (LEF), mizoribine (MZB) and steroids (STE), showed significantly higher probabilities of total remission (TR) when compared with non-immunosuppressive therapies (the control group),with risk ratios (RRs) of 2.71 (95% CI) 1.81 to 4.06)for tacrolimus+tripterygium wilfordii (TAC+TW), 2.16 (1.27 to 3.69) foradrenocorticotropic hormone, 2.02 (1.64 to 2.49) for TAC, 2.03 (1.13 to3.64) for azathioprine (AZA), 1.91 (1.46 to 2.50) for cyclosporine (CsA), 1.86 (1.44 to2.42) for mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), 1.85 (1.52 to 2.25) for cyclophosphamide (CTX),1.81 (1.10 to 2.98) for rituximab (RIT), 1.80 (1.38 to 2.33) for TW, 1.72 (1.35 to 2.19) for chlorambucil. As for 24 hours UTP, the direct andindirect comparisons showed that AZA (standard mean difference (SMD), -1.02(95% CI -1.90 to -0.15)), CsA (SMD, -0.70 (95% CI -1.33 to -0.08)),CTX (SMD, -1.01 (95% CI -1.44 to -0.58)), MMF (SMD, -0.98 (95% CI -1.64 to -0.32)), MZB (SMD, -0.97 (95% CI -1.90 to-0.04]), TAC (SMD, -1.16 (95% CI -1.72 to -0.60)) and TAC+TW(SMD, -2.03 (95% CI -2.94 to -1.12)) could significantly superior thancontrol, except for chlorambucil, LEF, RIT and STE. Thechanges of serum creatinine (Scr) was not significantly different between eachtreatments of immunosuppressive agents and the control, except for STE whichhas the possibility of increasing Scr (SMD, 1.00 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.64)).Comparisons among all treatments of immunosuppressive agents showed nostatistical significance in the outcome of relapse. A drenocorticotropichormone (85.1%) showed the lowest probability of relapse under the cumulativeranking curve values among all immunosuppressants. Infection,gastrointestinal symptoms, and bone marrow suppression were the common adverseevents associated with most of the immunosuppressive therapies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates that TAC+TW, TAC and CTX are superior to other immunosuppressive agents in terms of TR and 24 hours UTP. Moreover, they are all at risk of infection, gastrointestinal symptoms, and myelosuppression. Furthermore, TAC could increase the risk of glucose intolerance or new-onset diabetes mellitus. Conversely, STE alone, LEF and MZB seem to have little advantage in clinical treatment of IMN.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018094228.

Antiarrhythmics for maintaining sinus rhythm after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is the most frequent sustained arrhythmia. Atrial fibrillation often recurs after restoration of normal sinus rhythm. Antiarrhythmic drugs have been widely used to prevent recurrence. This is an update of a review previously published in 2006, 2012 and 2015.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effects of long-term treatment with antiarrhythmic drugs on death, stroke, drug adverse effects and recurrence of atrial fibrillation in people who had recovered sinus rhythm after having atrial fibrillation.

SEARCH METHODS

We updated the searches of CENTRAL, MEDLINE and Embase in January 2019, and ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP in February 2019. We checked the reference lists of retrieved articles, recent reviews and meta-analyses.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Two authors independently selected randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing any antiarrhythmic drug with a control (no treatment, placebo, drugs for rate control) or with another antiarrhythmic drug in adults who had atrial fibrillation and in whom sinus rhythm was restored, spontaneously or by any intervention. We excluded postoperative atrial fibrillation.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently assessed quality and extracted data. We pooled studies, if appropriate, using Mantel-Haenszel risk ratios (RR), with 95% confidence intervals (CI). All results were calculated at one year of follow-up or the nearest time point.

MAIN RESULTS

This update included one new study (100 participants) and excluded one previously included study because of double publication. Finally, we included 59 RCTs comprising 20,981 participants studying quinidine, disopyramide, propafenone, flecainide, metoprolol, amiodarone, dofetilide, dronedarone and sotalol. Overall, mean follow-up was 10.2 months.All-cause mortalityHigh-certainty evidence from five RCTs indicated that treatment with sotalol was associated with a higher all-cause mortality rate compared with placebo or no treatment (RR 2.23, 95% CI 1.03 to 4.81; participants = 1882). The number need to treat for an additional harmful outcome (NNTH) for sotalol was 102 participants treated for one year to have one additional death. Low-certainty evidence from six RCTs suggested that risk of mortality may be higher in people taking quinidine (RR 2.01, 95% CI 0.84 to 4.77; participants = 1646). Moderate-certainty evidence showed increased RR for mortality but with very wide CIs for metoprolol (RR 2.02, 95% CI 0.37 to 11.05, 2 RCTs, participants = 562) and amiodarone (RR 1.66, 95% CI 0.55 to 4.99, 2 RCTs, participants = 444), compared with placebo.We found little or no difference in mortality with dofetilide (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence) or dronedarone (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.09; high-certainty evidence) compared to placebo/no treatment. There were few data on mortality for disopyramide, flecainide and propafenone, making impossible a reliable estimation for those drugs.Withdrawals due to adverse eventsAll analysed drugs increased withdrawals due to adverse effects compared to placebo or no treatment (quinidine: RR 1.56, 95% CI 0.87 to 2.78; disopyramide: RR 3.68, 95% CI 0.95 to 14.24; propafenone: RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.07 to 2.46; flecainide: RR 15.41, 95% CI 0.91 to 260.19; metoprolol: RR 3.47, 95% CI 1.48 to 8.15; amiodarone: RR 6.70, 95% CI 1.91 to 23.45; dofetilide: RR 1.77, 95% CI 0.75 to 4.18; dronedarone: RR 1.58, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.85; sotalol: RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.11). Certainty of the evidence for this outcome was low for disopyramide, amiodarone, dofetilide and flecainide; moderate to high for the remaining drugs.ProarrhythmiaVirtually all studied antiarrhythmics showed increased proarrhythmic effects (counting both tachyarrhythmias and bradyarrhythmias attributable to treatment) (quinidine: RR 2.05, 95% CI 0.95 to 4.41; disopyramide: no data; flecainide: RR 4.80, 95% CI 1.30 to 17.77; metoprolol: RR 18.14, 95% CI 2.42 to 135.66; amiodarone: RR 2.22, 95% CI 0.71 to 6.96; dofetilide: RR 5.50, 95% CI 1.33 to 22.76; dronedarone: RR 1.95, 95% CI 0.77 to 4.98; sotalol: RR 3.55, 95% CI 2.16 to 5.83); with the exception of propafenone (RR 1.32, 95% CI 0.39 to 4.47) for which the certainty of evidence was very low and we were uncertain about the effect. Certainty of the evidence for this outcome for the other drugs was moderate to high.StrokeEleven studies reported stroke outcomes with quinidine, disopyramide, flecainide, amiodarone, dronedarone and sotalol. High-certainty evidence from two RCTs suggested that dronedarone may be associated with reduced risk of stroke (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.95; participants = 5872). This result is attributed to one study dominating the meta-analysis and has yet to be reproduced in other studies. There was no apparent effect on stroke rates with the other antiarrhythmics.Recurrence of atrial fibrillationModerate- to high-certainty evidence, with the exception of disopyramide which was low-certainty evidence, showed that all analysed drugs, including metoprolol, reduced recurrence of atrial fibrillation (quinidine: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.88; disopyramide: RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.59 to 1.01; propafenone: RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.74; flecainide: RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.77; metoprolol: RR 0.83 95% CI 0.68 to 1.02; amiodarone: RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.58; dofetilide: RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.85; dronedarone: RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.91; sotalol: RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.87). Despite this reduction, atrial fibrillation still recurred in 43% to 67% of people treated with antiarrhythmics.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is high-certainty evidence of increased mortality associated with sotalol treatment, and low-certainty evidence suggesting increased mortality with quinidine, when used for maintaining sinus rhythm in people with atrial fibrillation. We found few data on mortality in people taking disopyramide, flecainide and propafenone, so it was not possible to make a reliable estimation of the mortality risk for these drugs. However, we did find moderate-certainty evidence of marked increases in proarrhythmia and adverse effects with flecainide.Overall, there is evidence showing that antiarrhythmic drugs increase adverse events, increase proarrhythmic events and some antiarrhythmics may increase mortality. Conversely, although they reduce recurrences of atrial fibrillation, there is no evidence of any benefit on other clinical outcomes, compared with placebo or no treatment.

Prevention of Postdental Procedure Bacteremia: A Network Meta-analysis

Postdental procedure bacteremia is common and troublesome. The comparative efficacy of multiple prophylactic interventions is unclear. We compared the efficacy of interventions for the prevention of postdental procedure bacteremia. We conducted a review of ClinicalKey, Cochrane CENTRAL, Embase, ProQuest, PubMed, ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and ClinicalTrials.gov from inception to December 4, 2018. Randomized controlled trials that evaluated prophylactic interventions for the prevention of postdental procedure bacteremia were eligible. The primary outcome was the incidence of postdental procedure bacteremia. A total of 24 trials were included with 2,147 participants. Our network meta-analysis demonstrated that intravenous administration of 1,000/200 mg of amoxicillin/clavulanate provided the least incidence of postdental procedure bacteremia among all the prophylactic interventions (odds ratio = 0.03, 95% CI = 0.00 to 0.63) as compared with the placebo/controls. Oral 3 g of amoxicillin had the least incidence of postdental procedure bacteremia among all oral or topical forms of prophylactic interventions (odds ratio = 0.10, 95% CI = 0.02 to 0.44) as compared with the placebo/controls. No serious adverse events, such as anaphylactic shock, mortality, and the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, were reported. None of the included subjects were of high risk of infectious endocarditis. Our network meta-analysis demonstrates that intravenous amoxicillin/clavulanate and oral amoxicillin might be the best prophylactic interventions in preventing postdental procedure bacteremia among all the oral/topical forms of interventions for the overall populations.

Intravesical Chemotherapy after Radical Nephroureterectomy for Primary Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

The aim of this study was to determine the prophylactic effect of intravesical chemotherapy. Furthermore, it aimed to compare the efficacy of regimens on the prevention of bladder recurrence, after nephroureterectomy, for upper tract urothelial carcinoma by systematic review and network meta-analysis. A comprehensive literature search was conducted to search for studies published before 22 December 2016 using PubMed, Embase, and Scopus. All studies comparing nephroureterectomy alone with prophylactic intravesical chemotherapy after nephroureterectomy were included. The primary outcome was intravesical recurrence-free survival rate. In addition, we conducted indirect comparisons among regimens using network meta-analysis, as well as three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on multicenter setting, and one large retrospective study with a total of 532 patients were analyzed. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) of bladder recurrence was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.38–0.76) in intravesical instillation patients. On network meta-analysis, pirarubicin was ranked the most effective regimen, while maintenance therapy of mitomycin C (MMC) with Ara-C and induction therapy of MMC were ranked as the second and third most effective regimens, respectively. Our study demonstrates that intravesical chemotherapy can prevent bladder recurrence in patients with upper tract urothelial carcinoma after nephroureterectomy. It also suggests that a single instillation of pirarubicin is the most efficacious intravesical regimen.

Rapid network meta-analysis using data from Food and Drug Administration approval packages is feasible but with limitations

OBJECTIVE

To test rapid approaches that use Drugs@FDA (a public database of approved drugs) and ClinicalTrials.gov to identify trials and to compare these two sources with bibliographic databases as an evidence base for a systematic review and network meta-analysis (NMA).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We searched bibliographic databases, Drugs@FDA, and ClinicalTrials.gov for eligible trials on first-line glaucoma medications. We extracted data, assessed risk of bias, and examined the completeness and consistency of information provided by different sources. We fitted random-effects NMA models separately for trials identified from each source and for all unique trials from three sources.

RESULTS

We identified 138 unique trials including 29,394 participants on 15 first-line glaucoma medications. For a given trial, information reported was sometimes inconsistent across data sources. Journal articles provided the most information needed for a systematic review; trial registrations provided the least. Compared to an NMA including all unique trials, we were able to generate reasonably precise effect estimates and similar relative rankings for available interventions using trials from Drugs@FDA alone (but not ClinicalTrials.gov).

CONCLUSIONS

A rapid NMA approach using data from Drugs@FDA is feasible but has its own limitations. Reporting of trial design and results can be improved in both the drug approval packages and on ClinicalTrials.gov.

A tool for empirical equipoise assessment in multigroup comparative effectiveness research

PURPOSE

In observational research, equipoise concerns whether groups being compared are similar enough for valid inference. Empirical equipoise was previously proposed as a tool to assess patient similarity based on propensity scores (PS). We extended this work for multigroup observational studies.

METHODS

We modified the tool to allow for multinomial exposures such that the proposed definition reduces to the original when there are only two groups. We illustrated how the tool can be used as a method to assess study design within three-group clinical examples. We then conducted three-group simulations to assess how the tool performed in a setting with residual confounding after PS weighting.

RESULTS

In a clinical example based on rheumatoid arthritis, 44.5% of the sample fell within the region of empirical equipoise when considering first-line biologics, whereas 57.7% did so for second-line biologics, consistent with the expectation that a second-line design results in better equipoise. In a simulation where the unmeasured confounder had the same magnitude of association with the treatment as the measured confounders and a 25% greater association with the outcome, the tool crossed the proposed threshold for empirical equipoise at a residual confounding of 20% on the ratio scale. When the unmeasured variable had a twice larger association with treatment, the tool became less sensitive and crossed the threshold at a residual confounding of 30%.

CONCLUSION

Our proposed tool may be useful in guiding cohort identification in multigroup observational studies, particularly with similar effects of unmeasured and measured covariates on treatment and outcome.

Comparative efficacy of vasoactive medications in patients with septic shock: a network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Background

Catecholamines, especially norepinephrine, are the most frequently used vasopressors for treating patients with septic shock. During the recent decades, terlipressin, vasopressin V1A agonist, and even Ca²⁺ sensitizer were increasingly used by physicians. The aim of this study is to compare the efficacy of such different kinds of vasoactive medications on mortality among patients with septic shock.

Methods

Relevant randomized controlled trials were identified by searching PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials updated to February 22, 2018. A network meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of different types of vasoactive medications. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Intensive care unit (ICU) mortality, hospital and ICU length of stay (LOS), and adverse events were also assessed.

Results

A total of 43 trials with 5767 patients assessing 17 treatment modalities were included. Treatments ranking based on surface under the cumulative ranking curve values from largest to smallest were NE/DB 85.9%, TP 75.1%, NE/EP 74.6%, PI 74.1%, EP 72.5%, VP 66.1%, NE 59.8%, PE 53.0%, DA 42.1%, DX 38.2%, SP 27.0%, PA 24.3%, EX 22.8%, LE 21.5%, and DB 13.3% for 28-day mortality. Treatments ranking for ICU mortality were TP/NE 86.4%, TP 80.3%, TP/DB/NE 65.7%, VP/NE 62.8%, NE 57.4%, VP 56.5%, PE 48.4%, DA 33.0%, PA 27.5%, LE 22.1%, and DB 9.9%. The incidence of myocardial infarction was reported with NE/EP 3.33% (n = 1 of 30), followed by EP 3.11% (n = 5 of 161), and then VP 3.10% (n = 19 of 613), NE 3.03% (n = 43 of 1417), DA 2.21% (n = 19 of 858), NE/DB 2.01% (n = 4 of 199), LE 1.16% (n = 3 of 258), and PA 0.39% (n = 1 of 257). The incidence of arrhythmia was reported with DA 26.01% (n = 258 of 992), followed by EP 22.98% (n = 37 of 161), and then NE/DB 20.60% (n = 41 of 199), NE/EP 20.0% (n = 6 of 30), NE 8.33% (n = 127 of 1525), LE 5.81% (n = 15 of 258), PA 2.33% (n = 6 of 257), and VP 1.67% (n = 10 of 600).

Conclusions

The use of norepinephrine plus dobutamine was associated with lower 28-day mortality for septic shock, especially among patients with lower cardiac output.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-019-2427-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Health technologies for falls prevention and detection in adult hospital in-patients: a scoping review protocol

REVIEW OBJECTIVE/QUESTIONS

The objective of this scoping review is to map the evidence relating to the reporting and evaluation of health technologies for the prevention and detection of falls in adult hospital in-patients. The following questions will guide this scoping review.

Ertugliflozin Compared to Other Anti-hyperglycemic Agents as Monotherapy and Add-on Therapy in Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Ertugliflozin is a new sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus. As there are no head-to-head trials comparing the efficacy of SGLT2is, the primary objective of this analysis was to indirectly compare ertugliflozin to other SGLT2i in patient populations with inadequately controlled glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c > 7.0%) and previously treated with either diet/exercise, metformin alone or metformin plus a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i).

METHODS

A systematic literature review (SLR) identified randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting outcomes at 24-26 weeks of treatment. Comparators to ertugliflozin were the SGLT2is canagliflozin, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin, with non-SGLT2i comparators also evaluated third-line [insulin and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs)]. Outcomes were change from baseline in HbA1c, weight and systolic blood pressure (SBP) as well as HbA1c < 7% and key safety events. Bayesian network meta-analysis was used to synthesize evidence. Results are presented as the median of the mean difference (MD) or as odds ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrI).

RESULTS

In patients uncontrolled on diet/exercise, the efficacy of ertugliflozin 5 mg monotherapy was not significantly different from that of other low-dose SGLT2is in terms of HbA1c reduction, while ertugliflozin 15 mg was more effective than dapagliflozin 10 mg (MD - 0.36%, CrI - 0.65, - 0.08) and empagliflozin 25 mg (MD - 0.31%, CrI - 0.58, - 0.04). As add-on therapy to metformin, ertugliflozin 5 mg was more effective in lowering HbA1c than dapagliflozin 5 mg (MD - 0.22%, CrI - 0.42, - 0.02), and ertugliflozin 15 mg was more effective than dapagliflozin 10 mg (MD - 0.26%, CrI - 0.46, - 0.06) and empagliflozin 25 mg (MD - 0.23%, CrI - 0.44, - 0.03). Among patients uncontrolled on combination therapy metformin plus a DPP4i, no relevant RCTs with insulin were identified from the SLR. One study with a GLP-1 RA was included in a sensitivity analysis due to limited data. There were no differences between ertugliflozin 5 or 15 mg and other SGLT2is, with the exception of dapagliflozin 10 mg, which was significantly less effective when added to sitagliptin and metformin. Overall, there were no other significant differences for remaining efficacy and safety outcomes except for a lower SBP for canagliflozin 300 mg compared to ertugliflozin 15 mg in the diet/exercise population.

CONCLUSIONS

Indirect comparisons for HbA1c reduction found that ertugliflozin 5 mg was more effective than dapagliflozin 5 mg when added to metformin monotherapy, whereas ertugliflozin 15 mg was more effective than dapagliflozin 10 mg and empagliflozin 25 mg when added to diet/exercise and to metformin monotherapy. The HbA1c reduction associated with ertugliflozin was no different than that associated with canagliflozin across all populations.

FUNDING

Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, and Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, USA.

Cardiovascular efficacy and safety of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

AIMS

To compare the cardiovascular efficacy and safety of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in adults with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Electronic databases were searched from inception to 22 October 2018 for randomized controlled trials designed to assess the cardiovascular efficacy of SGLT2 inhibitors or GLP-1RAs with regard to a three-point composite measure of major adverse cardiovascular events (non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality). Cardiovascular and safety data were synthesized using Bayesian network meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Eight trials, including 60 082 participants, were deemed eligible for the network meta-analysis. Both SGLT2 inhibitors [hazard ratio 0.86 (95% credible interval 0.74, 1.01]) and GLP-1RAs [hazard ratio 0.88 (95% credible interval 0.78, 0.98)] reduced the three-point composite measure compared to placebo, with no evidence of differences between them [GLP-1RAs vs SGLT2 inhibitors: hazard ratio 1.02 (95% credible interval 0.83, 1.23)]. SGLT2 inhibitors reduced risk of hospital admission for heart failure compared to placebo [hazard ratio 0.67 (95% credible interval 0.53, 0.85)] and GLP-1RAs [hazard ratio 0.71 (95% credible interval 0.53, 0.93)]. No differences were found between the two drug classes in non-fatal stroke, non-fatal myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality or safety outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1RAs reduced the three-point major adverse cardiovascular event risk compared to placebo, with no differences between them. Compared with GLP-1RAs and placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors led to a larger reduction in hospital admission for heart failure risk.