The role of acute and early HIV infection in the spread of HIV and implications for transmission prevention strategies in Lilongwe, Malawi: a modelling study

Future of phylogeny in HIV prevention

The success of the HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial has led to revisions in HIV-1 treatment guidelines. Antiretroviral therapy may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmissions at the population level. The design of successful treatment as prevention interventions will be predicated on a comprehensive understanding of the spatial, temporal, and biological dynamics of heterosexual men who have sex with men and intravenous drug user epidemics. Viral phylogenetics can capture the underlying structure of transmission networks based on the genetic interrelatedness of viral sequences and cluster networks that could not be otherwise identified. This article describes the phylogenetic expansion of the Montreal men who have sex with men epidemic over the last decade. High rates of coclustering of primary infections are associated with 1 infection leading to 13 onward transmissions. Phylogeny substantiates the role of primary and recent stage infection in transmission dynamics, underlying the importance of timely diagnosis and immediate antiretroviral therapy initiation to avert transmission cascades.

The detection and management of early HIV infection: a clinical and public health emergency

This review considers the detection and management of early HIV infection (EHI), defined here as the first 6 months of infection. This phase is clinically important because a reservoir of infected cells formed in the individual renders HIV incurable, and the magnitude of viremia at the end of this period predicts the natural history of disease. Epidemiologically, it is critical because the very high viral load that typically accompanies early infection also makes infected individuals maximally contagious to their sexual partners. Future efforts to prevent HIV transmission with expanded testing and treatment may be compromised by elevated transmission risk earlier in the course of HIV infection, although the extent of this impact is yet unknown. Treatment as prevention efforts will nevertheless need to develop strategies to address testing, linkage to care, and treatment of EHI. Cost-effective and efficient identification of more persons with early HIV will depend on advancements in diagnostic technology and strengthened symptom-based screening strategies. Treatment for persons with EHI must balance individual health benefits and reduction of the risk of onward viral transmission. An increasing body of evidence supports the use of immediate antiretroviral therapy to treat EHI to maintain CD4 count and functionality, limit the size of the HIV reservoir, and reduce the risk of onward viral transmission. Although we can anticipate considerable challenges in identifying and linking to care persons in the earliest phases of HIV infection, there are many reasons to pursue this strategy.

Validation of the Elecsys® HIV combi PT assay for screening and reliable early detection of HIV-1 infection in Asia

BACKGROUND

The Elecsys® HIV combi PT assay was developed to allow earlier detection of HIV infection with increased sensitivity and specificity.

OBJECTIVES

To validate the assay for screening and reliable early detection of HIV-1 infection in Asia.

STUDY DESIGN

Samples tested reflected those routinely screened in Asia and comprised: HIV-1 antigen lysate (25 samples) and antibody (20 samples) dilutions; seven HIV-1 seroconversion panels (46 samples); 39 patient samples from early infection; 183 known-positive sera; HIV-1 p24 antigen sensitivity panel (seven samples); >500 routine clinical samples per center. The Elecsys® HIV combi PT assay was compared with fourth- (ADVIA Centaur® HIV combo, ARCHITECT® HIV combo, Elecsys® HIV combi) and third-generation (VIRONOSTIKA® HIV Uni-Form II Plus O, Zhuhai Livzon Anti-HIV EIA, Serodia® Particle Agglutination) assays commonly used in the region.

RESULTS

Overall, the Elecsys® HIV combi PT showed superior or similar sensitivity to the comparators for detecting all subtypes. The assay correctly identified all positive samples, including those taken soon after infection, and detected seroconversion at a similar or shorter time interval than the comparators. The analytical sensitivity of Elecsys® HIV combi PT for HIV-1 p24 antigen was 0.90 IU/mL, which was lower than reported previously. The assay showed good specificity (99.86%) that was superior or equivalent to the other fourth-generation assays tested.

CONCLUSIONS

These robust data demonstrate the good subtype inclusivity of the Elecsys® HIV combi PT assay and its suitability for screening and reliable early detection of HIV infection in Asia.

When to start antiretroviral therapy: the need for an evidence base during early HIV infection

BACKGROUND

Strategies for use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) have traditionally focused on providing treatment to persons who stand to benefit immediately from initiating the therapy. There is global consensus that any HIV+ person with CD4 counts less than 350 cells/μl should initiate ART. However, it remains controversial whether ART is indicated in asymptomatic HIV-infected persons with CD4 counts above 350 cells/μl, or whether it is more advisable to defer initiation until the CD4 count has dropped to 350 cells/μl. The question of when the best time is to initiate ART during early HIV infection has always been vigorously debated. The lack of an evidence base from randomized trials, in conjunction with varying degrees of therapeutic aggressiveness and optimism tempered by the risks of drug resistance and side effects, has resulted in divided expert opinion and inconsistencies among treatment guidelines.

DISCUSSION

On the basis of recent data showing that early ART initiation reduces heterosexual HIV transmission, some countries are considering adopting a strategy of universal treatment of all HIV+ persons irrespective of their CD4 count and whether ART is of benefit to the individual or not, in order to reduce onward HIV transmission. Since ART has been found to be associated with both short-term and long-term toxicity, defining the benefit:risk ratio is the critical missing link in the discussion on earlier use of ART. For early ART initiation to be justified, this ratio must favor benefit over risk. An unfavorable ratio would argue against using early ART.

SUMMARY

There is currently no evidence from randomized controlled trials to suggest that a strategy of initiating ART when the CD4 count is above 350 cells/μl (versus deferring initiation to around 350 cells/μl) results in benefit to the HIV+ person and data from observational studies are inconsistent. Large, clinical endpoint-driven randomized studies to determine the individual health benefits versus risks of earlier ART initiation are sorely needed.

Alcohol consumption as a barrier to prior HIV testing in a population-based study in rural Uganda

Early receipt of HIV care and ART is essential for improving treatment outcomes, but is dependent first upon HIV testing. Heavy alcohol consumption is common in sub-Saharan Africa, a barrier to ART adherence, and a potential barrier to HIV care. We conducted a population-based study of 2,516 adults in southwestern Uganda from November-December 2007, and estimated the relative risk of having never been tested for HIV using sex-stratified Poisson models. More men (63.9 %) than women (56.9 %) had never been tested. In multivariable analysis, compared to women who had not consumed alcohol for at least 5 years, women who were current heavy drinkers and women who last drank alcohol 1-5 years prior, were more likely to have never been tested. Alcohol use was not associated with prior HIV testing among men. HIV testing strategies may thus need to specifically target women who drink alcohol.

A novel acute HIV infection staging system based on 4th generation immunoassay

BACKGROUND

Fourth generation (4thG) immunoassay (IA) is becoming the standard HIV screening method but was not available when the Fiebig acute HIV infection (AHI) staging system was proposed. Here we evaluated AHI staging based on a 4thG IA (4thG staging).

FINDINGS

Screening for AHI was performed in real-time by pooled nucleic acid testing (NAT, n=48,828 samples) and sequential enzyme immunoassay (EIA, n=3,939 samples) identifying 63 subjects with non-reactive 2nd generation EIA (Fiebig stages I (n=25), II (n=7), III (n=29), IV (n=2)). The majority of samples tested (n=53) were subtype CRF_01AE (77%). NAT+ subjects were re-staged into three 4thG stages: stage 1 (n=20; 4th gen EIA-, 3rd gen EIA-), stage 2 (n=12; 4th gen EIA+, 3rd gen EIA-), stage 3 (n=31; 4th gen EIA+, 3rd gen EIA+, Western blot-/indeterminate). 4thG staging distinguishes groups of AHI subjects by time since presumed HIV exposure, pattern of CD8+ T, B and natural killer cell absolute numbers, and HIV RNA and DNA levels. This staging system further stratified Fiebig I subjects: 18 subjects in 4thG stage 1 had lower HIV RNA and DNA levels than 7 subjects in 4thG stage 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Using 4th generation IA as part of AHI staging distinguishes groups of patients by time since exposure to HIV, lymphocyte numbers and HIV viral burden. It identifies two groups of Fiebig stage I subjects who display different levels of HIV RNA and DNA, which may have implication for HIV cure. 4th generation IA should be incorporated into AHI staging systems.

Challenges of diagnosing acute HIV-1 subtype C infection in African women: performance of a clinical algorithm and the need for point-of-care nucleic-acid based testing

Background

Prompt diagnosis of acute HIV infection (AHI) benefits the individual and provides opportunities for public health intervention. The aim of this study was to describe most common signs and symptoms of AHI, correlate these with early disease progression and develop a clinical algorithm to identify acute HIV cases in resource limited setting.

Methods

245 South African women at high-risk of HIV-1 were assessed for AHI and received monthly HIV-1 antibody and RNA testing. Signs and symptoms at first HIV-positive visit were compared to HIV-negative visits. Logistic regression identified clinical predictors of AHI. A model-based score was assigned to each predictor to create a risk score for every woman.

Results

Twenty-eight women seroconverted after a total of 390 person-years of follow-up with an HIV incidence of 7.2/100 person-years (95%CI 4.5–9.8). Fifty-seven percent reported ≥1 sign or symptom at the AHI visit. Factors predictive of AHI included age <25 years (OR = 3.2; 1.4–7.1), rash (OR = 6.1; 2.4–15.4), sore throat (OR = 2.7; 1.0–7.6), weight loss (OR = 4.4; 1.5–13.4), genital ulcers (OR = 8.0; 1.6–39.5) and vaginal discharge (OR = 5.4; 1.6–18.4). A risk score of 2 correctly predicted AHI in 50.0% of cases. The number of signs and symptoms correlated with higher HIV-1 RNA at diagnosis (r = 0.63; p<0.001).

Conclusions

Accurate recognition of signs and symptoms of AHI is critical for early diagnosis of HIV infection. Our algorithm may assist in risk-stratifying individuals for AHI, especially in resource-limited settings where there is no routine testing for AHI. Independent validation of the algorithm on another cohort is needed to assess its utility further. Point-of-care antigen or viral load technology is required, however, to detect asymptomatic, antibody negative cases enabling early interventions and prevention of transmission.

Fifteen million people on antiretroviral treatment by 2015: treatment as prevention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The declaration of the United Nations High Level meeting on AIDS in June 2011 includes 10 concrete targets, including to ensure that there are 15 million people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) by 2015. This review examines the potential, opportunities and challenges of treatment as prevention of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) in reaching this target.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although around 8 million people are on treatment, everyone living with HIV will eventually need ART to stay alive. As many as 24  million people living with HIV today are not on treatment, the majority not even being aware of their HIV infection. Expansion of a comprehensive prevention strategy including providing ART to 15 million or more people would significantly reduce HIV and TB morbidity, mortality and transmission. The challenges include ensuring human rights protections, steady drug supply, early diagnosis and linkage to care, task shifting, adherence, retention, and monitoring and evaluation. Expansion could also lead to the control and possible elimination of HIV in many places.

SUMMARY

Achieving an 'AIDS-free generation' whereby deaths related to HIV are drastically reduced, people living with HIV are AIDS-free on ART, and HIV transmission is decreased, is both scientifically sound and practically feasible. The global community could reach 15 million people on ART by 2015 while expanding our vision and efforts to include diagnosis and treatment for all the 32  million people living with HIV in the future.

Cohort Profile: The Likoma Network Study (LNS)

The Likoma network study (LNS) investigates the sexual networks connecting the inhabitants of Likoma, a small island of Lake Malawi with high HIV prevalence. Whereas previous studies of sexual networks and HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan countries have focused solely on the personal networks of a small number of respondents, the LNS attempts to document the sexual networks of the entire adult population of Likoma. To do so, it uses a unique sociocentric study design, in which all members of the local population are contacted for a survey interview and are asked to nominate their five most recent sexual partners. Using these data, quasi-complete 'maps' of the sexual networks connecting inhabitants of the island can be constructed. These maps allow investigation of the impact of networks on HIV epidemiology and can inform mathematical models of HIV prevention. In addition to data on sexual networks, the LNS data include information on the social networks (e.g. friendship), socioeconomic characteristics and HIV status of Likoma's residents. Baseline data were collected in 2005-06. A first follow-up was conducted in 2007-08 and a second follow-up is planned for early 2013. Access to the LNS data is contingent upon review of a short concept paper and forming collaborations with LNS investigators.

Community viral load as a measure for assessment of HIV treatment as prevention

Community viral load, defined as an aggregation of individual viral loads of people infected with HIV in a specific community, has been proposed as a useful measure to monitor HIV treatment uptake and quantify its effect on transmission. The first reports of community viral load were published in 2009, and the measure was subsequently incorporated into the US National HIV/AIDS Strategy. Although intuitively an appealing strategy, measurement of community viral load has several theoretical limitations and biases that need further assessment, which can be grouped into four categories: issues of selection and measurement, the importance of HIV prevalence in determining the potential for ongoing HIV transmission, interpretation of community viral load and its effect on ongoing HIV transmission in a community, and the ecological fallacy (ie, ecological bias). These issues need careful assessment as community viral load is being considered as a public health measurement to assess the effect of HIV care on prevention.

Ten year trends in community HIV viral load in Barbados: implications for treatment as prevention

BACKGROUND

Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit.

METHODS

The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL.

RESULTS

Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease.

Increased HIV incidence in men who have sex with men despite high levels of ART-induced viral suppression: analysis of an extensively documented epidemic

BACKGROUND

There is interest in expanding ART to prevent HIV transmission, but in the group with the highest levels of ART use, men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM), numbers of new infections diagnosed each year have not decreased as ARTcoverage has increased for reasons which remain unclear.

METHODS

We analysed data on the HIV-epidemic in MSM in the UK from a range of sources using an individual-based simulation model. Model runs using parameter sets found to result in good model fit were used to infer changes in HIV-incidence and risk behaviour.

RESULTS

HIV-incidence has increased (estimated mean incidence 0.30/100 person-years 1990-1997, 0.45/100 py 1998-2010), associated with a modest (26%) rise in condomless sex. We also explored counter-factual scenarios: had ART not been introduced, but the rise in condomless sex had still occurred, then incidence 2006-2010 was 68% higher; a policy of ART initiation in all diagnosed with HIV from 2001 resulted in 32% lower incidence; had levels of HIV testing been higher (68% tested/year instead of 25%) incidence was 25% lower; a combination of higher testing and ART at diagnosis resulted in 62% lower incidence; cessation of all condom use in 2000 resulted in a 424% increase in incidence. In 2010, we estimate that undiagnosed men, the majority in primary infection, accounted for 82% of new infections.

CONCLUSION

A rise in HIV-incidence has occurred in MSM in the UK despite an only modest increase in levels of condomless sex and high coverage of ART. ART has almost certainly exerted a limiting effect on incidence. Much higher rates of HIV testing combined with initiation of ART at diagnosis would be likely to lead to substantial reductions in HIV incidence. Increased condom use should be promoted to avoid the erosion of the benefits of ART and to prevent other serious sexually transmitted infections.

High HIV-1 incidence, correlates of HIV-1 acquisition, and high viral loads following seroconversion among MSM

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 incidence estimates and correlates of HIV-1 acquisition in African MSM are largely unknown.

METHODS

Since 2005, HIV-1-uninfected men who reported sex with men and women (MSMW) or sex with men exclusively (MSME) were followed at scheduled visits for collection of behavioural and clinical examination data and plasma for HIV-1 testing. Urethral or rectal secretions were collected from symptomatic men to screen for gonorrhoea. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios to explore associations between risk factors and incident HIV-1 infection. Plasma viral loads (PVLs) were assessed over 2 years following seroconversion.

RESULTS

Overall HIV-1 incidence in 449 men was 8.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 6.7-11.0] per 100 person-years. Incidence was 5.8 (95% CI 4.2-7.9) per 100 person-years among MSMW, and 35.2 (95% CI 23.8-52.1) per 100 person-years among MSME. Unprotected sex, receptive anal intercourse, exclusive sex with men, group sex, and gonorrhoea in the past 6 months were strongly associated with HIV-1 acquisition, adjusted for confounders. PVL in seroconverters was more than 4 log10 copies/ml at 230 (73.4%) of 313 visits in MSMW and 153 (75.0%) of 204 visits in MSME.

CONCLUSION

HIV-1 incidence is very high among MSM in coastal Kenya, and many seroconverters maintain high PVL for up to 2 years after infection. Effective HIV-1 prevention interventions, including treatment as prevention, are urgently needed in this population.

Understanding the potential impact of a combination HIV prevention intervention in a hyper-endemic community

OBJECTIVES

Despite demonstrating only partial efficacy in preventing new infections, available HIV prevention interventions could offer a powerful strategy when combined. In anticipation of combination HIV prevention programs and research studies we estimated the population-level impact of combining effective scalable interventions at high population coverage, determined the factors that influence this impact, and estimated the synergy between the components.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model to investigate the effect on HIV incidence of a combination HIV prevention intervention comprised of high coverage of HIV testing and counselling, risk reduction following HIV diagnosis, male circumcision for HIV-uninfected men, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV-infected persons. The model was calibrated to data for KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV prevalence is approximately 23%.

RESULTS

Compared to current levels of HIV testing, circumcision, and ART, the combined intervention with ART initiation according to current guidelines could reduce HIV incidence by 47%, from 2.3 new infections per 100 person-years (pyar) to 1.2 per 100 pyar within 4 years and by almost 60%, to 1 per 100 pyar, after 25 years. Short-term impact is driven primarily by uptake of testing and reductions in risk behaviour following testing while long-term effects are driven by periodic HIV testing and retention in ART programs. If the combination prevention program incorporated HIV treatment upon diagnosis, incidence could be reduced by 63% after 4 years and by 76% (to about 0.5 per 100 pyar) after 15 years. The full impact of the combination interventions accrues over 10-15 years. Synergy is demonstrated between the intervention components.

CONCLUSION

High coverage combination of evidence-based strategies could generate substantial reductions in population HIV incidence in an African generalized HIV epidemic setting. The full impact could be underestimated by the short assessment duration of typical evaluations.

Linkage to care and treatment for TB and HIV among people newly diagnosed with TB or HIV-associated TB at a large, inner city South African hospital

Objective

To assess the outcomes of linkage to TB and HIV care and identify risk factors for poor referral outcomes.

Design

Cohort study of TB patients diagnosed at an urban hospital.

Methods

Linkage to care was determined by review of clinic files, national death register, and telephone contact, and classified as linked to care, delayed linkage to care (>7 days for TB treatment, >30 days for HIV care), or failed linkage to care. We performed log-binomial regression to identify patient and referral characteristics associated with poor referral outcomes.

Results

Among 593 TB patients, 23% failed linkage to TB treatment and 30.3% of the 77.0% who linked to care arrived late. Among 486 (86.9%) HIV-infected TB patients, 38.3% failed linkage to HIV care, and 32% of the 61.7% who linked to care presented late. One in six HIV-infected patients failed linkage to both TB and HIV care. Only 20.2% of HIV-infected patients were referred to a single clinic for integrated care. A referral letter was present in 90.3%, but only 23.7% included HIV status and 18.8% CD4 cell count. Lack of education (RR 1.85) and low CD4 count (CD4≤50 vs. >250cells/mm³; RR 1.66) were associated with failed linkage to TB care. Risk factors for failed linkage to HIV care were antiretroviral-naïve status (RR 1.29), and absence of referral letter with HIV or CD4 cell count (RR1.23).

Conclusions

Linkage to TB/HIV care should be strengthened by communication of HIV and CD4 results, ART initiation during hospitalization and TB/HIV integration at primary care.

Is total community viral load a robust predictive marker of the efficacy of the TasP strategy?

A mild but significant association between a decrease in the total community viral load (CVL) and a decrease in the number of new HIV diagnoses was observed between 2005 and 2010 in the population of northern and eastern France. This result suggests that CVL could be used as robust marker of the efficacy of the "Treatment as Prevention" strategy, and it may even be stronger if a large number of undiagnosed patients and early HIV infection cases indicated by extend screening are included in the CVL measurement.

Acute HIV-1 infection in the Southeastern United States: a cohort study

In 1998 a collaboration between Duke University and the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill (UNC) was founded to enhance identification of persons with acute HIV-1 infection (AHI). The Duke-UNC AHI Research Consortium Cohort consists of patients ≥18 years old with a positive nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) and either a negative enzyme immunoassay (EIA) test or a positive EIA with a negative/indeterminate Western blot. Patients were referred to the cohort from acute care settings and state-funded HIV testing sites that use NAAT testing on pooled HIV-1 antibody-negative samples. Between 1998 and 2010, 155 patients with AHI were enrolled: 81 (52%) African-Americans, 63 (41%) white, non-Hispanics, 137 (88%) males, 108 (70%) men who have sex with men (MSM), and 18 (12%) females. The median age was 27 years (IQR 22-38). Most (n=138/155) reported symptoms with a median duration of 17.5 days. The median nadir CD4 count was 408 cells/mm(3) (IQR 289-563); the median observed peak HIV-1 level was 726,859 copies/ml (IQR 167,585-3,565,728). The emergency department was the most frequent site of initial presentation (n=55/152; 3 missing data). AHI diagnosis was made at time of first contact in 62/137 (45%; 18 missing data) patients. This prospectively enrolled cohort is the largest group of patients with AHI reported from the Southeastern United States. The demographics reflect the epidemic of this geographic area with a high proportion of African-Americans, including young black MSM. Highlighting the challenges of diagnosing AHI, less than half of the patients were diagnosed at the first healthcare visit. Women made up a small proportion despite increasing numbers in our clinics.

Coverage, context and targeted prevention: optimising our impact

Development of efficacious interventions is only the first step in achieving population level impact. Efficacious interventions impact infection levels in the population only if they are implemented at the right scale. Coverage must be prioritised across subpopulations based on the diversity and clustering of infections and risk in society, and expanded rapidly without delay. It is important to prioritise those who are most likely to transmit infection first.

Developing concurrency messages for the black community in Seattle, Washington

In the United States, Blacks are disproportionately impacted by HIV/AIDS. Sexual networks and concurrent relationships have emerged as important contributors to the heterosexual transmission of HIV. To date, Africa is the only continent where an understanding of the impact of sexual concurrency has been conveyed in HIV prevention messaging. This project was developed by researchers and members of the Seattle, Washington, African American and African-Born communities, using the principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR). Interest in developing concurrency messaging came from the community and resulted in the successful submission of a community-academic partnership proposal to develop and disseminate HIV prevention messaging around concurrency. The authors describe (a) the development of concurrency messaging through the integration of collected formative data and findings from the scientific literature; (b) the process of disseminating the message in the local Black community; and (c) important factors to consider in the development of similar campaigns.

Detectable signals of episodic risk effects on acute HIV transmission: strategies for analyzing transmission systems using genetic data

Episodic high-risk sexual behavior is common and can have a profound effect on HIV transmission. In a model of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), changing the frequency, duration and contact rates of high-risk episodes can take endemic prevalence from zero to 50% and more than double transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI). Undirected test and treat could be inefficient in the presence of strong episodic risk effects. Partner services approaches that use a variety of control options will be likely to have better effects under these conditions, but the question remains: What data will reveal if a population is experiencing episodic risk effects? HIV sequence data from Montreal reveals genetic clusters whose size distribution stabilizes over time and reflects the size distribution of acute infection outbreaks (AIOs). Surveillance provides complementary behavioral data. In order to use both types of data efficiently, it is essential to examine aspects of models that affect both the episodic risk effects and the shape of transmission trees. As a demonstration, we use a deterministic compartmental model of episodic risk to explore the determinants of the fraction of transmissions during acute HIV infection (AHI) at the endemic equilibrium. We use a corresponding individual-based model to observe AIO size distributions and patterns of transmission within AIO. Episodic risk parameters determining whether AHI transmission trees had longer chains, more clustered transmissions from single individuals, or different mixes of these were explored. Encouragingly for parameter estimation, AIO size distributions reflected the frequency of transmissions from acute infection across divergent parameter sets. Our results show that episodic risk dynamics influence both the size and duration of acute infection outbreaks, thus providing a possible link between genetic cluster size distributions and episodic risk dynamics.

Conceptualizing a Human Right to Prevention in Global HIV/AIDS Policy

Given current constraints on universal treatment campaigns, recent advances in public health prevention initiatives have revitalized efforts to stem the tide of HIV transmission. Yet, despite a growing imperative for prevention-supported by the promise of behavioral, structural and biomedical approaches to lower the incidence of HIV-human rights frameworks remain limited in addressing collective prevention policy through global health governance. Assessing the evolution of rights-based approaches to global HIV/AIDS policy, this review finds that human rights have shifted from collective public health to individual treatment access. While the advent of the HIV/AIDS pandemic gave meaning to rights in framing global health policy, the application of rights in treatment access litigation came at the expense of public health prevention efforts. Where the human rights framework remains limited to individual rights enforced against a state duty bearer, such rights have faced constrained application in framing population-level policy to realize the public good of HIV prevention. Concluding that human rights frameworks must be developed to reflect the complementarity of individual treatment and collective prevention, this article conceptualizes collective rights to public health, structuring collective combination prevention to alleviate limitations on individual rights frameworks and frame rights-based global HIV/AIDS policy to assure research expansion, prevention access and health system integration.

Is concurrency driving HIV transmission in sub-Saharan African sexual networks? The significance of sexual partnership typology

Recently, there has been debate about the role of concurrent partnerships in driving the transmission of HIV, particularly in Southern Africa, where HIV prevalence is up to 25 % in many heterosexual populations and where evidence from sexual behavior surveys also suggests high levels of male concurrency. While mathematical modeling studies have shown that concurrency has the potential to enhance the speed at which HIV spreads in a population, empirical studies up to now have failed to provide conclusive evidence supportive of these effects. Here we discuss some reasons for the apparent discrepancy between theoretical and empirical studies. We propose that studying the impact of concurrency on HIV transmission should be differentiated by taking more insight from social and behavioral studies on sexual partnerships into account. We also suggest that a more rigorous definition is needed for when a factor is considered a driving force for HIV epidemic spread. We illustrate this with a modeling example.

Diagnosing acute HIV infection

Individuals with acute HIV infection (AHI) pose a greater transmission risk than most chronically HIV-infected patients and prevention efforts targeting these individuals are important for reducing the spread of HIV infection. Rapid and accurate diagnosis of AHI is crucial. Since symptoms of AHI are nonspecific, its diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion and appropriate HIV laboratory tests. However, even 30 years after the start of the HIV epidemic, laboratory tools remain imperfect and only a few individuals with AHI are identified. We review the clinical presentation of the acute retroviral syndrome, the laboratory markers and their detection methods, and propose an algorithm for the laboratory diagnosis of AHI.

Antiviral agents and HIV prevention: controversies, conflicts, and consensus

Antiviral agents can be used to prevent HIV transmission before exposure as preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), after exposure as postexposure prophylaxis, and as treatment of infected people for secondary prevention. Considerable research has shed new light on antiviral agents for PrEP and for prevention of secondary HIV transmission. While promising results have emerged from several PrEP trials, the challenges of poor adherence among HIV-negative clients and possible increase in sexual risk behaviors remain a concern. In addition, a broader pipeline of antiviral agents for PrEP that focuses on genital tract pharmacology and safety and resistance issues must be developed. Antiretroviral drugs have also been used to prevent HIV transmission from HIV-infected patients to their HIV-discordant sexual partners. The HIV Prevention Trials Network 052 trial demonstrated nearly complete prevention of HIV transmission by early treatment of infection, but the generalizability of the results to other risk groups - including intravenous drug users and MSM - has not been determined. Most importantly, the best strategy for use of antiretroviral agents to reduce the spread of HIV at either the individual level or the population level has not been developed, and remains the ultimate goal of this area of investigation.

Dynamic concurrent partnership networks incorporating demography

We introduce a population model that incorporates From a mathematical point of view we deal with continuous-time Markov chains at the individual level, with the interaction between individuals captured by a global variable describing opportunities for new partnerships. We show that for large time a stationary distribution is attained and we deduce various statistical features of that distribution, with particular attention for concurrency, i.e. the overlap in time of multiple partnerships of one and the same individual. Our ultimate motivation is to model the spread of sexually transmitted infections in the population, for which the present paper serves as a prelude.

Successes and challenges of HIV prevention in men who have sex with men

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have been substantially affected by HIV epidemics worldwide. Epidemics in MSM are re-emerging in many high-income countries and gaining greater recognition in many low-income and middle-income countries. Better HIV prevention strategies are urgently needed. Our review of HIV prevention strategies for MSM identified several important themes. At the beginning of the epidemic, stand-alone behavioural interventions mostly aimed to reduce unprotected anal intercourse, which, although somewhat efficacious, did not reduce HIV transmission. Biomedical prevention strategies reduce the incidence of HIV infection. Delivery of barrier and biomedical interventions with coordinated behavioural and structural strategies could optimise the effectiveness of prevention. Modelling suggests that, with sufficient coverage, available interventions are sufficient to avert at least a quarter of new HIV infections in MSM in diverse countries. Scale-up of HIV prevention programmes for MSM is difficult because of homophobia and bias, suboptimum access to HIV testing and care, and financial constraints.

Viral load monitoring of antiretroviral therapy, cohort viral load and HIV transmission in Southern Africa: a mathematical modelling analysis

OBJECTIVES

In low-income settings, treatment failure is often identified using CD4 cell count monitoring. Consequently, patients remain on a failing regimen, resulting in a higher risk of transmission. We investigated the benefit of routine viral load monitoring for reducing HIV transmission.

DESIGN

Mathematical model.

METHODS

We developed a stochastic mathematical model representing the course of individual viral load, immunological response and survival in a cohort of 1000 HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in southern Africa. We calculated cohort viral load (CVL; sum of individual viral loads) and used a mathematical relationship between individual viral load values and transmission probability to estimate the number of new HIV infections. Our model was parameterized with data from the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern African collaboration. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the validity of the results in a universal 'test and treat' scenario, wherein patients start ART earlier after HIV infection.

RESULTS

If CD4 cell count alone was regularly monitored, the CVL was 2.6 × 10 copies/ml and the treated patients transmitted on average 6.3 infections each year. With routine viral load monitoring, both CVL and transmissions were reduced by 31% to 1.7 × 10 copies/ml and 4.3 transmissions, respectively. The relative reduction of 31% between monitoring strategies remained similar for different scenarios.

CONCLUSION

Although routine viral load monitoring enhances the preventive effect of ART, the provision of ART to everyone in need should remain the highest priority.

Treatment as prevention: translating efficacy trial results to population effectiveness

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The understanding that antiretroviral treatment prevents HIV transmission through suppression of viral load provides significant new opportunities in HIV prevention. However, knowledge of efficacy is only a first step to having an impact on the spread of HIV at a population level, the ultimate goal of all primary prevention modalities. This review explores what we know about treatment as prevention and how it could be used as a tool, as part of a combination approach, in the global response to HIV.

RECENT FINDINGS

Efficacy data show that treatment as prevention works at high levels in trial conditions in stable serodiscordant couples; a finding that can reasonably be generalized to other populations at risk of transmitting the virus. Modelling shows that treatment as prevention should have an impact, but the extent of this depends primarily upon whether optimistic or pessimistic assumptions are made about the programmatic use of antiretrovirals (ARVs).

SUMMARY

We describe research questions that need to be addressed in developing optimal programmatic public health treatment strategies including how best to target and implement the use of treatment as prevention, how to balance the needs of treatment for the individual patients' clinical benefit against population level benefits, and how to create programmes that are able to link people to and retain them in care.

Opportunities and challenges for cost-efficient implementation of new point-of-care diagnostics for HIV and tuberculosis

Stakeholders agree that supporting high-quality diagnostics is essential if we are to continue to make strides in the fight against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis. Despite the need to strengthen existing laboratory infrastructure, which includes expanding and developing new laboratories, there are clear diagnostic needs where conventional laboratory support is insufficient. Regarding HIV, rapid point-of-care (POC) testing for initial HIV diagnosis has been successful, but several needs remain. For tuberculosis, several new diagnostic tests have recently been endorsed by the World Health Organization, but a POC test remains elusive. Human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis are coendemic in many high prevalence locations, making parallel diagnosis of these conditions an important consideration. Despite its clear advantages, POC testing has important limitations, and laboratory-based testing will continue to be an important component of future diagnostic networks. Ideally, a strategic deployment plan should be used to define where and how POC technologies can be most efficiently and cost effectively integrated into diagnostic algorithms and existing test networks prior to widespread scale-up. In this fashion, the global community can best harness the tremendous capacity of novel diagnostics in fighting these 2 scourges.

Cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy for prevention

Recent empirical studies and analyses have heightened interest in the use of expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) for prevention of HIV transmission. However, ART is expensive, approximately $600 per person per year, raising issues of the cost and cost-effectiveness of ambitious ART expansion. The goal of this review is to equip the reader with the conceptual tools and substantive background needed to understand and evaluate the policy and programmatic implications of cost-effectiveness assessments of ART for prevention. We provide this review in six sections. We start by introducing and explaining basic concepts of health economics as they relate to this issue, including resources, costs, health metrics (such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years), and different types of economic analysis. We then review research on the cost and cost-effectiveness of ART as treatment, and on the cost-effectiveness of traditional HIV prevention. We describe critical issues in the epidemic impact of ART, such as suppression of transmission and the role of the acute phase of infection. We then present a conceptual model for conducting and interpreting cost-effectiveness analyses of ART as prevention, and review the existing preliminary estimates in this area. We end with a discussion of future directions for programmatic demonstrations and evaluation.

The HIV-1 epidemic: low- to middle-income countries

Low- to middle-income countries bear the overwhelming burden of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic in terms of the numbers of their citizens living with HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), the high degrees of viral diversity often involving multiple HIV-1 clades circulating within their populations, and the social and economic factors that compromise current control measures. Distinct epidemics have emerged in different geographical areas. These epidemics differ in their severity, the population groups they affect, their associated risk behaviors, and the viral strains that drive them. In addition to inflicting great human cost, the high burden of HIV infection has a major impact on the social and economic development of many low- to middle-income countries. Furthermore, the high degrees of viral diversity associated with multiclade HIV epidemics impacts viral diagnosis and pathogenicity and treatment and poses daunting challenges for effective vaccine development.

HIV treatment as prevention and HPTN 052

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review summarizes the development and implementation of a large clinical trial, HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052, whose initial results were recently presented and published.

RECENT FINDINGS

A randomized, clinical trial demonstrated that antiretroviral therapy reduces the sexual transmission of HIV in HIV-serodiscordant couples by more than 96%. The logistical challenges in preparing for and conducting such a trial were considerable.

SUMMARY

HPTN 052 required many years of preparation, considerable collaboration between National Institute of Health and six pharmaceutical companies, and careful ongoing consideration of a large number of ethical issues. HPTN 052 revealed the magnitude of benefit when using antiretroviral therapy to prevent the transmission of HIV, and served as proof of a concept. The results have proven central to the development of new global HIV-prevention efforts.

Testing for acute HIV infection: implications for treatment as prevention

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this study is to give an overview of the recent literature related to HIV testing with an emphasis on detecting acute HIV infection. Testing technology as well as implications for treatment as prevention will be discussed.

RECENT FINDINGS

HIV testing technology continues to evolve. Advances include updated immunologic formats that detect both HIV antibody and antigen (4th generation assays), new nucleic acid amplification tests, and continued development of rapid assays that can be used in either clinical or nonclinical settings. Because of these advances there are proposed changes for HIV diagnostic algorithms to encourage detection of acute infection. These technologic advances have implications for HIV prevention as testing is a cornerstone for all HIV prevention strategies. There is considerable new research indicating that treatment may be an important aspect of HIV prevention. Data also suggest that detection of acute infection will be important for the success of these prevention strategies.

SUMMARY

Continued improvements in technology and testing practice are vital for the success of HIV prevention. Detection of acute or early HIV infection will likely play a key role in the success of treatment as prevention, as well as play an important role in ongoing behavioral prevention strategies.

Episodic HIV Risk Behavior Can Greatly Amplify HIV Prevalence and the Fraction of Transmissions from Acute HIV Infection

A deterministic compartmental model was explored that relaxed the unrealistic assumption in most HIV transmission models that behaviors of individuals are constant over time. A simple model was formulated to better explain the effects observed. Individuals had a high and a low contact rate and went back and forth between them. This episodic risk behavior interacted with the short period of high transmissibility during acute HIV infection to cause dramatic increases in prevalence as the differences between high and low contact rates increased and as the duration of high risk better matched the duration of acute HIV infection. These same changes caused a considerable increase in the fraction of all transmissions that occurred during acute infection. These strong changes occurred despite a constant total number of contacts and a constant total transmission potential from acute infection. Two phenomena played a strong role in generating these effects. First, people were infected more often during their high contact rate phase and they remained with high contact rates during the highly contagious acute infection stage. Second, when individuals with previously low contact rates moved into an episodic high-risk period, they were more likely to be susceptible and thus provided more high contact rate susceptible individuals who could get infected. These phenomena make test and treat control strategies less effective and could cause some behavioral interventions to increase transmission. Signature effects on genetic patterns between HIV strains could make it possible to determine whether these episodic risk effects are acting in a population.

HIV treatment as prevention: the utility and limitations of ecological observation

Results from several observational studies of HIV-discordant couples and a randomized controlled trial (HIV Prevention Trials Network 052) show that antiretroviral therapy (ART) can greatly reduce heterosexual HIV transmission in stable HIV-discordant couples. However, such data do not prove that ART will reduce HIV incidence at the population level. Observational investigations using ecological measures have been used to support the implementation of HIV treatment for the specific purpose of preventing transmission at the population level. Many of these studies note ecological associations between measures of increased ART uptake and decreased HIV transmission. Given the urgency of implementing HIV prevention measures, ecological studies must de facto be used to inform current strategies. However, the hypothesis that widespread ART can eliminate HIV infection may have raised expectations beyond what we may be able to achieve. Here we review and discuss the construct of the exposure and outcome measures and analysis methods used in ecological studies. By examining the strengths and weaknesses of ecological analyses, we aim to aid understanding of the findings from these studies to inform future policy decisions regarding the use of ART for HIV prevention.

HIV-1 transmission and viral adaptation to the host

HIV-1 transmission predominantly occurs via mucosal transmission and blood–blood contact. In most newly infected individuals, outgrowth of a single virus variant has been described. This indicates that HIV-1 transmission is a very inefficient process and is restricted by an extensive transmission bottleneck. The transmission rate is directly correlated to the viral load in the donor and the susceptibility of the recipient, which is influenced by factors such as the integrity of mucosal barriers, target cell availability and genetic host factors. After establishment of infection in the new host, the viral population remains very homogenous until the host immune response drives evolution of the viral quasispecies. This review describes our current knowledge on HIV-1 transmission and recent insights in viral adaption to its host.

HIV treatment as prevention: debate and commentary--will early infection compromise treatment-as-prevention strategies?

Universal HIV testing and immediate antiretroviral therapy for infected individuals has been proposed as a way of reducing the transmission of HIV and thereby bringing the HIV epidemic under control. It is unclear whether transmission during early HIV infection--before individuals are likely to have been diagnosed with HIV and started on antiretroviral therapy--will compromise the effectiveness of treatment as prevention. This article presents two opposing viewpoints by Powers, Miller, and Cohen, and Williams and Dye, followed by a commentary by Fraser.

HIV treatment as prevention: models, data, and questions--towards evidence-based decision-making

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) for those infected with HIV can prevent onward transmission of infection, but biological efficacy alone is not enough to guide policy decisions about the role of ART in reducing HIV incidence. Epidemiology, economics, demography, statistics, biology, and mathematical modelling will be central in framing key decisions in the optimal use of ART. PLoS Medicine, with the HIV Modelling Consortium, has commissioned a set of articles that examine different aspects of HIV treatment as prevention with a forward-looking research agenda. Interlocking themes across these articles are discussed in this introduction. We hope that this article, and others in the collection, will provide a foundation upon which greater collaborations between disciplines will be formed, and will afford deeper insights into the key factors involved, to help strengthen the support for evidence-based decision-making in HIV prevention.

HIV treatment as prevention: natural experiments highlight limits of antiretroviral treatment as HIV prevention

There is growing enthusiasm for increasing coverage of antiretroviral treatment among HIV-infected people for the purposes of preventing ongoing transmission. Treatment as prevention will face a number of barriers when implemented in real world populations, which will likely lead to the effectiveness of this strategy being lower than proposed by optimistic modelling scenarios or ideal clinical trial settings. Some settings, as part of their prevention and treatment strategies, have already attained rates of HIV testing and use of antiretroviral therapy--with high levels of viral suppression--that many countries would aspire to as targets for a treatment-as-prevention strategy. This review examines a number of these "natural experiments", namely, British Columbia, San Francisco, France, and Australia, to provide commentary on whether treatment as prevention has worked in real world populations. This review suggests that the population-level impact of this strategy is likely to be considerably less than as inferred from ideal conditions.

HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

CONCLUSIONS

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact.