Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: a model including α-fetoprotein improves the performance of Milan criteria

Future challenges in gastroenterology and hepatology, between innovations and unmet needs: A SIGE Young Editorial Board's perspective

Gastroenterology, Digestive Endoscopy and Hepatology have faced significant improvements in terms of diagnosis and therapy in the last decades. However, many fields still remain poorly explored, and many questions unanswered. Moreover, basic-science, as well as translational and clinical discoveries, together with technology advancement will determine further steps toward a better, refined care for many gastroenterological disorders in the future. Therefore, the Young Investigators of the Italian Society of Gastroenterology (SIGE) joined together, offering a perspective on major future innovations in some hot clinical topics in Gastroenterology, Endoscopy, and Hepatology, as well as the current pitfalls and the grey zones.

Correlation Between Serum Alpha-Fetoprotein and Tumour Size in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated With Direct-Acting Antivirals

Objectives: Since its first description, alpha-fetoprotein has become the most widely used marker for diagnosing and monitoring patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aims to assess the correlation between serum levels of alpha-fetoprotein and tumour dimensions in patients diagnosed with HCC, that were previously treated with direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C viral infection.

Materials and methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study on 47 patients with a personal history of hepatitis C virus infection, who were diagnosed with different forms of HCC more than one year after achieving sustained virologic response after 12 weeks post-treatment. Patients were monitored by liver function tests, tumoral markers, blood cell count and coagulation profile and underwent imagistic explorations such as abdominal ultrasonography and, in selected cases, computerised tomography/magnetic resonance imaging. Tumour burden was assessed by both tumour burden score and seven-eleven criteria.

Results: The study mostly included cirrhotic patients, multinodular HCC being the predominant pattern. All patients had alpha-fetoprotein levels over 100 ng/ml, with values largely varying, in accordance with the tumour dimensions. Most patients had medium-range Tumour Burden Score, a variable that also correlated with nodule size.

Conclusions: The study found a significant correlation between serum alpha-fetoprotein and tumour size in patients with HCC. Alpha-fetoprotein also correlated well with Tumour Burden Score and remains a very important diagnostic and prognostic tool for patients with HCC.

The AGH score is a predictor of disease-free survival and targeted therapy efficacy after liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Liver transplantation (LT) is the "cure" therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, some patients encounter HCC recurrence after LT. Unfortunately, there is no effective methods to identify the LT patients who have high risk of HCC recurrence and would benefit from adjuvant targeted therapy. The present study aimed to establish a scoring system to predict HCC recurrence of HCC patients after LT among the Chinese population, and to evaluate whether these patients are suitable for adjuvant targeted therapy.

METHODS

Clinical data of HCC patients who underwent LT from March 2015 to June 2019 were retrospectively collected and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 201 patients were included in the study. The multivariate Cox analysis suggested that preoperative alpha fetoprotein (AFP) > 200 µg/L (HR = 2.666, 95% CI: 1.515-4.690; P = 0.001), glutamyl transferase (GGT) > 96 U/L (HR = 1.807, 95% CI: 1.012-3.224; P = 0.045), and exceeding the Hangzhou criteria (HR = 2.129, 95% CI: 1.158-3.914; P = 0.015) were independent risk factors for poor disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with HCC who underwent LT. We established an AFP-GGT-Hangzhou (AGH) scoring system based on these factors, and divided cases into high-, moderate-, and low-risk groups. The differences in overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) rates among the three groups were significant (P < 0.05). The efficacy of the AGH scoring system to predict DFS was better than that of the Hangzhou criteria, UCSF criteria, Milan criteria, and TNM stage. Only in the high-risk group, we found that lenvatinib significantly improved prognosis compared with that of the control group (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The AGH scoring system provides a convenient and effective way to predict HCC recurrence after LT in HCC patients in China. Patients with a high-risk AGH score may benefit from lenvatinib adjuvant therapy after LT.

Patient Selection for Downstaging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prior to Liver Transplantation—Adjusting the Odds?

Background and Aims: Morphometric features such as the Milan criteria serve as standard criteria for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Since it has been recognized that these criteria are too restrictive and do not adequately display the tumor biology, additional selection parameters are emerging.

Methods: Concise review of the current literature on patient selection for downstaging and LT for HCC outside the Milan criteria.

Results: The major task in patients outside the Milan criteria is the need for higher granularity with patient selection, since the benefit through LT is not uniform. The recent literature clearly shows that beneath tumor size and number, additional selection parameters are useful in the process of patient selection for and during downstaging. For initial patient selection, the alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level adds additional information to the size and number of HCC nodules concerning the chance of successful downstaging and LT. This effect is quantifiable using newer selection tools like the WE (West-Eastern) downstaging criteria or the Metroticket 2.0 criteria. Also an initial PET-scan and/or tumor biopsy can be helpful, especially in the high risk group of patients outside the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria. After this entry selection, the clinical course during downstaging procedures concerning the tumor and the AFP response is of paramount importance and serves as an additional final selection tool.

Conclusion: Selection criteria for liver transplantation in HCC patients are becoming more and more sophisticated, but are still imperfect. The implementation of molecular knowledge will hopefully support a more specific risk prediction for HCC patients in the future, but do not provide a profound basis for clinical decision-making at present.

Progression of AFP SCORE is a Preoperative Predictive Factor of Microvascular Invasion in Selected Patients Meeting Liver Transplantation Criteria for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Microvascular invasion (MVI) is one of the main prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), but its occurrence is unpredictable before surgery. The alpha fetoprotein (AFP) model (composite score including size, number, AFP), currently used in France, defines the selection criteria for LT. This study’s aim was to evaluate the preoperative predictive value of AFP SCORE progression on MVI and overall survival during the waiting period for LT. Data regarding LT recipients for HCC from 2007 to 2015 were retrospectively collected from a single institutional database. Among 159 collected cases, 34 patients progressed according to AFP SCORE from diagnosis until LT. MVI was shown to be an independent histopathological prognostic factor according to Cox regression and competing risk analysis in our cohort. AFP SCORE progression was the only preoperative predictive factor of MVI (OR = 10.79 [2.35–49.4]; p 0.002). The 5-year overall survival in the progression and no progression groups was 63.9% vs. 86.3%, respectively (p = 0.001). Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence was significantly different between the progression and no progression groups (Sub-HR = 4.89 [CI 2–11.98]). In selected patients, the progression of AFP SCORE during the waiting period can be a useful preoperative tool to predict MVI.

The Toronto Postliver Transplantation Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence Calculator: A Machine Learning Approach

Liver transplantation (LT) listing criteria for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remain controversial. To optimize the utility of limited donor organs, this study aims to leverage machine learning to develop an accurate posttransplantation HCC recurrence prediction calculator. Patients with HCC listed for LT from 2000 to 2016 were identified, with 739 patients who underwent LT used for modeling. Data included serial imaging, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), locoregional therapies, treatment response, and posttransplantation outcomes. We compared the CoxNet (regularized Cox regression), survival random forest, survival support vector machine, and DeepSurv machine learning algorithms via the mean cross-validated concordance index. We validated the selected CoxNet model by comparing it with other currently available recurrence risk algorithms on a held-out test set (AFP, Model of Recurrence After Liver Transplant [MORAL], and Hazard Associated with liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma [HALT-HCC score]). The developed CoxNet-based recurrence prediction model showed a satisfying overall concordance score of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.64-0.84). In comparison, the recalibrated risk algorithms' concordance scores were as follows: AFP score 0.64 (outperformed by the CoxNet model, 1-sided 95% CI, >0.01; P = 0.04) and MORAL score 0.64 (outperformed by the CoxNet model 1-sided 95% CI, >0.02; P = 0.03). The recalibrated HALT-HCC score performed well with a concordance of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.63-0.81) and was not significantly outperformed (1-sided 95% CI, ≥0.05; P = 0.29). Developing a comprehensive posttransplantation HCC recurrence risk calculator using machine learning is feasible and can yield higher accuracy than other available risk scores. Further research is needed to confirm the utility of machine learning in this setting.

Minimizing the risk of small-for-size syndrome after liver surgery

BACKGROUND

Primary and secondary liver tumors are not always amenable to resection due to location and size. Inadequate future liver remnant (FLR) may prevent patients from having a curative resection or may result in increased postoperative morbidity and mortality from complications related to small-for-size syndrome (SFSS).

DATA SOURCES

This comprehensive review analyzed the principles, mechanism and risk factors associated with SFSS and presented current available options in the evaluation of FLR when planning liver surgery. In addition, it provided a detailed description of specific modalities that can be used before, during or after surgery, in order to optimize the conditions for a safe resection and minimize the risk of SFSS.

RESULTS

Several methods which aim to reduce tumor burden, preserve healthy liver parenchyma, induce hypertrophy of FLR or prevent postoperative complications help minimize the risk of SFSS.

CONCLUSIONS

With those techniques the indications of radical treatment for patients with liver tumors have significantly expanded. The successful outcome depends on appropriate patient selection, the individualization and modification of interventions and the right timing of surgery.

Liver transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A prognostic model incorporating pretransplant inflammatory cytokines

PURPOSE

Liver transplantation (LT) remains an optimal treatment for selected hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Cytokines can be obtained by minimally invasive techniques and are associated with the development of HCC. The purpose of our investigation was to explore the prognostic value of pretransplant serum inflammatory cytokine profiles in HCC patients for LT.

METHODS

We detected forty inflammatory cytokines in pre-LT serum from 42 HCC patients by using an inflammation-related antibody array. A pretransplant serum inflammatory cytokine-associated risk assessment model (pre-SCRAM) was developed and was validated in an external cohort of 213 HCC patients who underwent LT and were then followed prospectively.

RESULTS

The pre-LT factors independently associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) were as follows: B-lymphocyte chemoattractant (BLC), interleukin (IL)-12p40 and maximum tumor diameter. High IL-12P40 level was associated with a significantly smaller maximum tumor diameter (p = 0.021), decreased proportion of nodules ≥ 3 (p = 0.001), lower platelet counts (p = 0.011) and lower portal vein tumor thrombus (p = 0.031). Conversely, recipients with poor BLC level had higher alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels (p = 0.016). Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that high pre-LT BLC or IL-12p40 level was associated with superior RFS. The pre-SCRAM stratified recipients into three risk groups: high risk, intermediate risk and low risk. In the validation cohort, for patients in the high, intermediate, and low risk groups, the 3-year RFS rates were 29.3%, 58.7%, and 82.2%, respectively, the 3-year HCC-specific survival rates were 54.5%, 73.8%, and 86%, respectively, and the 3-year overall survival rates were 44.4%, 60.9%, and 79.9%, respectively. The pre-SCRAM model performed well and remained significant in optimizing the risk stratification of recurrence in patients beyond the Milan criteria or the AFP model.

CONCLUSION

Pretransplant cytokine profiles can provide powerful prognostic information in the setting of LT for HCC. A pre-LT risk model incorporating cytokines showed excellent efficiency in recurrence prediction for HCC patients, which could ultimately stratify the prognosis in patients beyond the Milan criteria or the AFP model.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

Real-life data on the impact of successful downstaging in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: A Dutch Multicenter Study

Patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) theoretically are an excellent group to consider downstaging using locoregional therapy (LRT) since they do not have extrahepatic spread or vascular invasion. Once successful, this can change the treatment strategy from palliative to curative intention. Although downstaging therapy is suggested in guidelines, it is still not widely accepted. Moreover, studies on downstaging are mainly performed in high-incidence HCC countries. Therefore, our aim was to gain insight in therapeutic strategies in patients with intermediate stage HCC and their impact on intention-to-treat survival in a real-life setting in a low-incidence HCC country. We retrospectively analyzed data from the national Dutch HCC registry. From this database, consisting of 1409 patients with a diagnosis of HCC between 2005-2013 in 5 Dutch tertiary referral centers, we identified 165 patients with intermediate stage HCC. Out of these patients, 63 (38%) were not offered LRT, whereas 102 (62%) did receive LRT. Subsequently, 50 (49%) of the 102 patients who received LRT were successfully downstaged. Eleven patients (22% of successfully downstaged patients) eventually underwent liver transplantation. Cox regression analysis showed that a lower MELD score, an AFP value <100 ng/ml, successful downstaging and liver transplantation (all ≤p = 0.01) were positively associated to overall survival. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that LRT is not routinely offered to intermediate stage HCC patients in the Netherlands. Nevertheless, we showed that patients with intermediate stage HCC who are successfully downstaged have a survival benefit compared to those who were not.

Risk Score Model for Liver Transplant Outcomes after Preoperative Locoregional Therapy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

The role of preoperative locoregional therapy (LRT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) before liver transplantation (LT) remains unclear. Moreover, LRT in the setting of living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) merits further exploration. The objective of the current study was to determine risk factors for poor outcomes after LDLT in patients who received locoregional therapy (LRT).

METHODS

We reviewed patients (n = 46) who underwent LDLT after LRT. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of recurrence-free survival (RFS). Risk scores were developed to define prognostic groups.

RESULTS

Median tumor size was 3.7 (1.2-12) cm and tumor number was 1 (1-6). Macrovascular invasion was seen in 10/46 (21.7%) patients. There was a significant difference in 5-year RFS with > 3 tumor nodules (P = 0.005), tumors outside University of California San Francisco criteria (P = 0.03), bilobar disease (P = 0.002), AFP > 600 ng/ml (P = 0.006), and poor response to LRT (P = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, bilobar disease (HR = 2.9, P = 0.01), AFP > 600 ng/ml (HR = 2.3 P = 0.008), and poor response to LRT (HR = 2, P = 0.02) were predictors of 5-year RFS. The 5-year RFS in low risk (score = 0), intermediate risk (score = 1-3), and high risk (score = 4-7) groups was 86%, 76%, and 9% (P < 0.0001). There was no recurrence seen in 4/4 (100%) patients with macrovascular invasion in the low-intermediate risk group. The 5-year RFS in the low-intermediate risk group within and outside Milan criteria was 100% and 74% (P = 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

LDLT can provide excellent long-term RFS in patients after preoperative LRT in the low and intermediate risk groups.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

BCLC strategy for prognosis prediction and treatment recommendation: The 2022 update

There have been major advances in the armamentarium for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) since the last official update of the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer prognosis and treatment strategy published in 2018. Whilst there have been advances in all areas, we will focus on those that have led to a change in strategy and we will discuss why, despite being encouraging, data for select interventions are still too immature for them to be incorporated into an evidence-based model for clinicians and researchers. Finally, we describe the critical insight and expert knowledge that are required to make clinical decisions for individual patients, considering all of the parameters that must be considered to deliver personalised clinical management.

Do changes in inflammatory markers predict hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence and survival after liver transplantation?

Backgrounds/Aims

The role of inflammation in malignant cell proliferation has been well described. High values of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as markers of systemic inflammation have shown associations with unfavorable long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study was to determine values of NLR and PLR evaluated prior to and after surgery and their associations with mortality and recurrence rates of liver transplant patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Methods

A total of 105 patients with HCC who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) were retrospectively reviewed. NLR and PLR values were obtained from complete blood counts prior to and after surgery. Overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in relation with delta NLR and PLR were estimated.

Results

Serum alpha-fetoprotein levels > 100 ng/mL (p = 0.014) and lymphovascular emboli in the specimen (p = 0.048) were identified to be significant predictors of RFS. Child-Pugh score (p = 0.016) was found to be an independent factor associated with poorer OS. An increasing delta PLR was associated with worse RFS, although it showed no significant association with OS.

Conclusions

The analysis of PLR as a continuous variable may predict recurrence outcomes in patients undergoing OLT for HCC. It is more representative than isolated values.

UNOS Down-Staging Criteria for Liver Transplantation of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of 25 Studies

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Down-staging is commonly used to select patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria (MC) for liver transplantation (LT), but outcomes are heterogenous. We aimed to estimate pooled down-staging success rates, HCC recurrence, and overall survival (OS), stratified by criteria used for baseline tumor burden.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed and EMBASE databases from inception until August 2021 for studies reporting down-staging success (reduction of tumor burden to within MC) and outcomes of adult HCC patients. In addition, we performed a pooled analysis using reconstructed individual participant data to obtain robust estimates for OS.

RESULTS

We screened 1059 articles and included 25 articles involving 3997 patients. Overall, 55.16% (45.49%-64.46%) underwent successful down-staging, and 31.52% (24.03%-40.11%) received LT (by intention-to-treat analysis [ITT]). Among patients who received LT, 16.01% (11.80%-21.37%) developed HCC recurrence. Comparing studies that used the United Network for Organ Sharing Down-Staging (UNOS-DS) criteria versus studies beyond UNOS-DS or did not specify criteria, down-staging success (by ITT) was 83.21% versus 45.93%, P < .001; the proportion who received LT (by ITT) was 48.61% vs 28.60%, P = .030; and HCC recurrence (among patients who received LT) occurred in 9.06% versus 20.42%, P < .001. Among studies that used UNOS-DS criteria, ITT 1- and 5-year OS from the initiation of down-staging treatment was 86% and 58%, respectively, whereas 1- and 5-year post-LT OS was 94% and 74%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Among studies that adhered to UNOS-DS criteria, down-staging was successful in four-fifths of patients, >50% received LT, and post-LT outcomes were excellent. These data provide clinical validation for the utilization of UNOS-DS criteria.

Levels of Alpha-Fetoprotein and Association with Mortality in Hepatocellular Carcinoma of HIV-1-Infected Patients

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study on patients living with HIV-1 infection (PLWH) followed at the Division of Infectious Diseases of the San Raffaele Hospital, with cirrhosis and HCC diagnosed between 1999 and 2018 and with an available AFP value at HCC diagnosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the accuracy of baseline AFP in predicting death. Factors associated with the risk of death were identified using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models.

Results

Overall, 53 PLWH were evaluated: 18 patients received a curative treatment (9 liver transplantation, 5 liver resections and 4 radiofrequency ablation) and 35 a noncurative treatment (17 chemo or radio embolization, 10 sorafenib and 8 best supportive care). Baseline AFP was predictive of death [AUC 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.83], and the optimal cut-off was 28.8 ng/mL. At multivariable analysis, BL AFP ≥28.8 ng/mL was associated with death [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 7.05, 95% CI 1.94–25.71 P = 0.003]. Other factors were HBV infection (aHR 8.57, 95% CI 1.47–50.08, P = 0.017) and treatment allocation (curative vs. noncurative, aHR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02–0.40, P = 0.0004).

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that in PLWH AFP serum levels ≥28.8 ng/mL, HBV coinfection and treatment allocation represent predictive markers for death at the time of HCC diagnosis.

Immunotherapies for hepatocellular carcinoma

Cases of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are rapidly rising. This is particularly the case in the Western world, as a result of increasing rates of chronic liver disease, secondary to lifestyle-associated risk factors and the lack of an established screening programme for the general population. Traditionally, radical/curative treatment options for HCC, including liver transplantation and surgical resection are reserved for the minority of patients, presenting with an early stage cancer. For patients with advanced disease, Sorafenib and Lenvatinib were, until recently, the only licensed systemic treatments, and provided only limited survival benefits at the cost of a multitude of potential side effects. Recent scientific advances in the field of cancer immunotherapy have renewed significant interest in advanced HCC, in order to fulfil this apparent area of unmet clinical need. This has led to the success and recent regulatory approval of an Atezolizumab/Bevacizumab combination for the first-line treatment of advanced HCC following results from the IMbrave150 clinical trial in 2019, with further immune checkpoint inhibitors currently undergoing testing in advanced clinical trials. Furthermore, other cancer immunotherapies, including chimeric antigen receptor T-cells, dendritic cell vaccines and oncolytic viruses are also in early stage clinical trials, for the treatment of advanced HCC. This review will summarise the major approaches that have been and are currently in development for the systemic treatment of advanced HCC, their advantages, drawbacks, and predictions of where this revolutionary treatment field will continue to travel for the foreseeable future.

R3-AFP score is a new composite tool to refine prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Background & Aims

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for liver transplantation (LT) based on pre-LT imaging ± alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) level, but discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent. Our aim was to design an explant-based recurrence risk reassessment score to refine prediction of recurrence after LT and provide a framework to guide post-LT management.

Methods

Adult patients who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2018 for HCC in 47 centres were included. A prediction model for recurrence was developed using competing-risk regression analysis in a European training cohort (TC; n = 1,359) and tested in a Latin American validation cohort (VC; n=1,085).

Results

In the TC, 76.4% of patients with HCC met the Milan criteria, and 89.9% had an AFP score of ≤2 points. The recurrence risk reassessment (R3)-AFP model was designed based on variables independently associated with recurrence in the TC (with associated weights): ≥4 nodules (sub-distribution of hazard ratio [SHR] = 1.88, 1 point), size of largest nodule (3–6 cm: SHR = 1.83, 1 point; >6 cm: SHR = 5.82, 5 points), presence of microvascular invasion (MVI; SHR = 2.69, 2 points), nuclear grade >II (SHR = 1.20, 1 point), and last pre-LT AFP value (101–1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 1.57, 1 point; >1,000 ng/ml: SHR = 2.83, 2 points). Wolber’s c-index was 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.80), significantly superior to an R3 model without AFP (0.75; 95% CI 0.72–0.79; p = 0.01). Four 5-year recurrence risk categories were identified: very low (score = 0; 5.5%), low (1–2 points; 15.1%), high (3–6 points; 39.1%), and very high (>6 points; 73.9%). The R3-AFP score performed well in the VC (Wolber’s c-index of 0.78; 95% CI 0.73–0.83).

Conclusions

The R3 score including the last pre-LT AFP value (R3-AFP score) provides a user-friendly, standardised framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials for HCC not limited to the Milan criteria.

Clinical Trials Registration

NCT03775863.

Lay summary

Considering discrepancies between pre-LT tumour assessment and explant are frequent, reassessing the risk of recurrence after LT is critical to further refine the management of patients with HCC. In a large and international cohort of patients who underwent transplantation for HCC, we designed and validated the R3-AFP model based on variables independently associated with recurrence post-LT (number of nodules, size of largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value). The R3-AFP model including last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features. The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a robust framework to design post-LT surveillance strategies, protocols, or adjuvant therapy trials, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.

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Discrepancies between pretransplant tumour assessment and liver explant are frequent.

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The R3-AFP predictive model of recurrence was designed and validated in a large and international cohort of patients transplanted for HCC.

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The components of the final model are the following: number of nodules, size of the largest nodule, presence of MVI, nuclear grade, and last pre-LT AFP value.

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The R3-AFP model including the last available pre-LT AFP value outperformed the original R3 model only based on explant features.

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The final R3-AFP scoring system provides a standardised framework to refine post-LT management of patients, irrespective of criteria used to select patients with HCC for LT.

Prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with immunotherapy - development and validation of the CRAFITY score

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Immunotherapy with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab represents the new standard of care in systemic front-line treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, biomarkers that predict treatment success and survival remain an unmet need.

METHODS

Patients with HCC put on PD-(L)1-based immunotherapy were included in a training set (n = 190; 6 European centers) and a validation set (n = 102; 8 European centers). We investigated the prognostic value of baseline variables on overall survival using a Cox model in the training set and developed the easily applicable CRAFITY (CRP and AFP in ImmunoTherapY) score. The score was validated in the independent, external cohort, and evaluated in a cohort of patients treated with sorafenib (n = 204).

RESULTS

Baseline serum alpha-fetoprotein ≥100 ng/ml (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; p = 0.007) and C-reactive protein ≥1 mg/dl (HR, 1.7; p = 0.007) were identified as independent prognostic factors in multivariable analysis and were used to develop the CRAFITY score. Patients who fulfilled no criterion (0 points; CRAFITY-low) had the longest median overall survival (27.6 (95% CI 19.5-35.8) months), followed by those fulfilling 1 criterion (1 point; CRAFITY-intermediate; 11.3 (95% CI 8.0-14.6) months), and patients meeting both criteria (2 points; CRAFITY-high; 6.4 (95% CI 4.8-8.1) months; p <0.001). Additionally, best radiological response (complete response/partial response/stable disease/progressive disease) was significantly better in patients with lower CRAFITY score (CRAFITY-low: 9%/20%/52%/20% vs. CRAFITY-intermediate: 3%/25%/36%/36% vs. CRAFITY-high: 2%/15%/22%/61%; p = 0.003). These results were confirmed in the independent validation set and in different subgroups, including Child-Pugh A and B, performance status 0 and ≥1, and first-line and later lines. In the sorafenib cohort, CRAFITY was associated with survival, but not radiological response.

CONCLUSIONS

The CRAFITY score is associated with survival and radiological response in patients receiving PD-(L)1 immunotherapy. The score may help with patient counseling but requires prospective validation.

LAY SUMMARY

The immunotherapy-based regimen of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab represents the new standard of care in systemic first-line therapy of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Biomarkers to predict treatment outcome are an unmet need in patients undergoing immunotherapy for HCC. We developed and externally validated a score that predicts outcome in patients with HCC undergoing immunotherapy with immune checkpoint blockers.

Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: How Should We Improve the Thresholds?

Simple Summary

The ideal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is liver transplantation (LT), which both eliminates the HCC and cures the diseased liver. Once considered an experimental treatment with dismal survival rates, LT for HCC entered a new era with the establishment of the Milan criteria over 20 years ago. However, over the last two decades, the Milan criteria, which are based on tumor morphology, have come under intense scrutiny and are now largely regarded as too restrictive, and limit the access of transplantation for many patients who would otherwise achieve good clinical outcomes. The liver transplant community has been making every effort to reach a goal of establishing more reliable selection criteria. This article addresses how the criteria have been extended, as well as the concept of pre-transplant down-staging to maximize the eligibility.

Abstract

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third highest cause of cancer-related mortality, and liver transplantation is the ideal treatment for this disease. The Milan criteria provided the opportunity for HCC patients to undergo LT with favorable outcomes and have been the international gold standard and benchmark. With the accumulation of data, however, the Milan criteria are not regarded as too restrictive. After the implementation of the Milan criteria, many extended criteria have been proposed, which increases the limitations regarding the morphological tumor burden, and incorporates the tumor’s biological behavior using surrogate markers. The paradigm for the patient selection for LT appears to be shifting from morphologic criteria to a combination of biologic, histologic, and morphologic criteria, and to the establishment of a model for predicting post-transplant recurrence and outcomes. This review article aims to characterize the various patient selection criteria for LT, with reference to several surrogate markers for the biological behavior of HCC (e.g., AFP, PIVKA-II, NLR, 18F-FDG PET/CT, liquid biopsy), and the response to locoregional therapy. Furthermore, the allocation rules in each country and the present evidence on the role of down-staging large tumors are addressed.

Machine learning to predict waitlist dropout among liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Accurate prediction of outcome among liver transplant candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains challenging. We developed a prediction model for waitlist dropout among liver transplant candidates with HCC.

Methods

The study included 18,920 adult liver transplant candidates in the United States listed with a diagnosis of HCC, with data provided by the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. The primary outcomes were 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month waitlist dropout, defined as removal from the liver transplant waitlist due to death or clinical deterioration.

Results

Using 1,181 unique variables, the random forest model and Spearman's correlation analyses converged on 12 predictive features involving 5 variables, including AFP (maximum and average), largest tumor size (minimum, average, and most recent), bilirubin (minimum and average), INR (minimum and average), and ascites (maximum, average, and most recent). The final Cox proportional hazards model had a concordance statistic of 0.74 in the validation set. An online calculator was created for clinical use and can be found at: http://hcclivercalc.cloudmedxhealth.com/.

Conclusion

In summary, a simple, interpretable 5‐variable model predicted 3‐, 6‐, and 12‐month waitlist dropout among patients with HCC. This prediction can be used to appropriately prioritize patients with HCC and their imminent need for transplant.

Plasma hPG80 (Circulating Progastrin) as a Novel Prognostic Biomarker for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Simple Summary

Liver cancer is the sixth most common cancer world-wide and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most common form of primary liver cancer, accounts for 90% of the cases. The diagnosis of HCC is usually based on non-invasive criteria using detection of a liver nodule in abdominal ultrasonography or high serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels. However, as it is only elevated in 60% of patients with HCC, AFP has limited accuracy, especially in early stages, as both a diagnostic and prognostic test. We investigated hPG80 (circulating progastrin), which is associated with liver cancer biology, and found that hPG80 levels is both an independent prognostic marker in HCC and used in combination with AFP, it improves the stratification of the patients in good and poor prognosis, especially for those patients at early-stage. This will help stratify HCC patients more accurately in the future and improve the management of these patients.

Abstract

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prognosis. However, AFP is not useful in establishing a prognosis for patients with a tumor in the early stages. hPG₈₀ (circulating progastrin) is a tumor promoting peptide present in the blood of patients with various cancers, including HCC. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of plasma hPG₈₀ in patients with HCC, alone or in combination with AFP. A total of 168 HCC patients were tested prospectively for hPG₈₀ and analyzed retrospectively. The prognostic impact of hPG₈₀ and AFP levels on patient survival was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests. hPG₈₀ was detected in 84% of HCC patients. There was no correlation between hPG₈₀ and AFP levels in the training and validation cohorts. Both cohorts showed higher sensitivity of hPG₈₀ compared to AFP, especially at early stages. Patients with high hPG₈₀ (hPG₈₀+) levels (optimal cutoff value 4.5 pM) had significantly lower median overall survival (OS) compared to patients with low hPG₈₀ (hPG₈₀−) levels (12.4 months versus not reached respectively, p < 0.0001). Further stratification by combining hPG₈₀ and AFP levels (cutoff 100 ng/mL) improved prognosis in particular for those patients with low AFP level (hPG₈₀−/AFP+ and hPG₈₀−/AFP−, 13.4 months versus not reached respectively, p < 0.0001 and hPG₈₀+/AFP+ and hPG₈₀+/AFP−, 5.7 versus 26 months respectively, p < 0.0001). This was corroborated when analyses were performed using the BCLC staging especially at early stages. Our findings show that hPG₈₀ could serve as a new prognostic biomarker in HCC. Used in combination with AFP, it improves the stratification of the patients in good and poor prognosis, especially for those patients with negative AFP and early-stage HCC.

Role of Pretransplant Treatments for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Waiting for Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer in men worldwide and the second leading cause of cancer death. Liver transplantation (LT) is one of the treatment options for patients with HCC. Recently, there have been many reports of the usefulness of locoregional therapy, such as transarterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation, for HCC as pretreatment before LT. In Western countries, locoregional therapy is used to bridge until transplantation to prevent drop-outs from the waiting list or for downstaging to treat patients with advanced HCC who initially exceed the criteria for LT. With the progress of locoregional therapy, new reports on the effects of bridging and downstaging locoregional therapy as pretransplant treatment are increasing in number.

Abstract

Recently, there have been many reports of the usefulness of locoregional therapy such as transarterial chemoembolization and radiofrequency ablation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as pretreatment before liver transplantation (LT). Locoregional therapy is performed with curative intent in Japan, where living donor LT constitutes the majority of LT due to the critical shortage of deceased donors. However, in Western countries, where deceased donor LT is the main procedure, LT is indicated for early-stage HCC regardless of liver functional reserve, and locoregional therapy is used for bridging until transplantation to prevent drop-outs from the waiting list or for downstaging to treat patients with advanced HCC who initially exceed the criteria for LT. There are many reports of the effect of bridging and downstaging locoregional therapy before LT, and its indications and efficacy are becoming clear. Responses to locoregional therapy, such as changes in tumor markers, the avidity of FDG-PET, etc., are considered useful for successful bridging and downstaging. In this review, the effects of bridging and downstaging locoregional therapy as a pretransplant treatment on the results of transplantation are clarified, focusing on recent reports.

Preoperative predictors of non-transplantable recurrence after resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma: application in an East Asian cohort

A French study found that three preoperative factors (i.e. alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) > 100 ng/ml, image-diagnosed tumor number > 1, and cirrhosis) could predict non-transplantable recurrence (NTR) after liver resection (LR) for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to evaluate whether this model could be applicable in an East Asian cohort from a country in which the majority of patients undergo living donor liver transplantation (LT). This retrospective study enrolled consecutive patients who underwent LR for transplantable HCC between 2011 and 2018 in our institution. The occurrence of NTR after LR was analyzed in a competing risks analysis, with death and transplantable recurrence as competing events. A total of 309 patients were included. The five-year overall survival and recurrence-free survival were 79.0% and 51.4%, respectively (median follow-up: 32.0 months). Recurrence was noted in 94 (30.4%) patients. NTR was noted in 35 (11.3%) patients. Univariate analysis showed that cirrhosis (sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 2.301, 95% CI = 1.046-5.065; p = 0.038) and image-diagnosed tumor number > 1 (SHR = 2.32; 95% CI = 1.11-4.86; p = 0.026) were associated with NTR, whereas AFP > 100 ng/ml (SHR = 1.56; 95% CI = 0.59-4.10; p = 0.37) was not associated with NTR. In the presence of 0, 1, and 2 factors (i.e. cirrhosis or image-diagnosed tumor number > 1), the NTR rates were 7.2%, 10.8%, and 29.0%, respectively. The results showed that the French model was applicable to our cohort. In the presence of two factors (i.e. cirrhosis and image-diagnosed tumor number > 1), risks and benefits of upfront LT could be discussed with the patient and the living donor.

The Landscape Of Alpha Fetoprotein In Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Where Are We?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death among cirrhosis patients. Difficulties in early diagnosis and heterogeneity are obstacles to effective treatment, especially for advanced HCC. Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the best therapy for HCC. Although many biomarkers are being proposed, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), which was identified over 60 years ago, remains the most utilized. Recently, much hope has been placed in the immunogenicity of AFP to develop novel therapies, such as AFP vaccines and AFP-specific adoptive T-cell transfer (ACT). This review summarizes the performance of AFP as a biomarker for HCC diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its correlation with molecular classes. In addition, the role of AFP in LT is also described. Finally, we highlight the mechanism and application prospects of two immune therapies (AFP vaccine and ACT) for HCC. In general, our review points out the prevalence of AFP in HCC, accompanied by some controversies and novel directions for future research.

Prognostic role of selection criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for transplantation if they have a low tumour burden and low risk of recurrence. The morphometric Milan criteria have been the cornerstone for patient selection, but dynamic morphological and biological tumour characteristics surfaced as an encouraging tool to refine the selection of patients with HCC and to support the expansion of the Milan criteria. The outcomes of the most prevalent models that select patients with HCC for liver transplantation were analysed in this study, which aimed to identify the selection model that offered the best recurrence-free and overall survival after transplantation.

METHODS

Studies that compared Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), up-to-seven (UPTS), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and MetroTicket 2.0 (MT2) models were included. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of patients selected for transplantation using different models were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 850 adult patients with HCC selected for liver transplantation using Milan, UCSF, UPTS, AFP, or MT2 criteria were included. Patients selected for transplantation using the MT2 model had the highest 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival. In addition, patients selected for transplantation using MT2 criteria had the best 1- and 3-year overall survival, whereas patients selected for transplantation using the Milan criteria had the best 5-year overall survival rates.

CONCLUSION

The MT2 model offered the best post-transplant outcomes in patients with HCC, highlighting the importance of considering tumour morphology and biology when selecting patients with HCC for liver transplantation.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up of primary malignant liver tumours

Among a wide range of malignant liver tumours, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developed on a background of cirrhosis represents the most frequent clinical situation. In this setting, HCC is one of the rare solid tumours for which histological confirmation is not mandatory. The convergence of multiple arguments obtained by non-invasive parameters using radiological findings allows to avoid liver biopsy in a large proportion of patients when a diagnosis of underlying cirrhosis is ascertained. Conversely, in case of atypical presentation or in order to exclude other rare malignant tumours mostly developed in the absence of cirrhosis, liver biopsy will then be essential. Based on typical radiological patterns described by contrast-enhanced imaging, numerous clinical guidelines have endorsed non-invasive diagnosis, staging and monitoring of HCC patients under treatment since 20 years. These algorithms have evolved over the years, taking into account progress in radiological technology and advances in curative or palliative procedures. Large cohort studies have also helped to refine diagnostic criteria and prognostication in the setting of complex therapeutic strategy. Unsupervised multi-analysis approaches both at the biological and radiological levels will in the future enrich the panel of non-invasive markers useful in clinical practice to manage HCC and other malignant tumours.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up in liver transplantation

The field of liver transplantation directly or indirectly embodies all liver diseases, in addition to specific ones related to organ rejection (cellular and humoral). The recommended non-invasive methods for determining the indication for liver transplantation are the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score, and the alpha-foetoprotein score in case of hepatocellular carcinoma. Radiological methods are the cornerstones for the diagnosis of vascular and biliary complications after liver transplantation. The possible diseases of the liver graft after transplantation are multiple and often intertwined. Non-invasive diagnostic methods have been poorly evaluated in this context, apart from the recurrence of hepatitis C. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for evaluating graft lesions in the majority of cases, especially graft rejection.

Influence of the ABO Blood Group System on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplantation

BACKGROUND

The ABO blood group system may influence tumorigenesis, but its prognostic value in liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has never been assessed.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent LT for HCC between 2013 and 2017 at 9 centers were analyzed. Predictors of tumor recurrence were identified using multivariable analysis, while comparison between group A and non-A recipients was performed after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Among 925 LT recipients, 406 were blood group A, 94 group B, 380 group O, and 45 group AB. On multivariable analysis, group A was associated with tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.574 [95% confidence interval; 95% CI = 1.034-2.394] P = 0.034). After propensity score matching, 1- and 5-y recurrence rates were 7.4% and 20.1% in group A recipients versus 3.3% and 13.2% in non-A recipients (HR = 1.66 [95% CI = 1.12-2.45], P = 0.011). One and 5-y recurrence-free survivals were 85.2% and 66.8% in group A recipients versus 88.5% and 71.3% in non-A recipients (HR = 1.38 [95% CI = 1.01-1.90], P = 0.045). Among recipients within Milan criteria (n = 604), 1- and 5-y recurrence rates were 5.8% and 12.7% in group A recipients versus 3.1% and 12.2% in non-A recipients (HR = 1.197 [95% CI = 0.721-1.987], P = 0.485). Among recipients outside Milan criteria (n = 182), 1- and 5-y recurrence rates were 12.1% and 43.8% in group A recipients versus 3.9% and 15.6% in non-A recipients (HR = 3.175 [95% CI = 1.526-6.608], P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

ABO blood system influences the oncological outcome of recipients undergoing LT for HCC. Its incorporation in the prognostication model of LT for HCC may allow improving the management of LT candidates.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

Simple Summary

Currently, most transplant centres worldwide accept patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent successful downstaging. Concurrently, the effectiveness of radiological and systemic therapies used for the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma are increasing. It is now more frequently observed that candidates for liver transplantation have an excellent response to downstaging, even if the baseline stage was well beyond the transplantable tumour. Downstaged patients have a higher risk of dropout from the waiting list and post-transplant recurrence if not transplanted in a short time. Since an increasing number of downstaged patients affects the waitlist dynamics, the definition of upper limits of downstaging is becoming a crucial issue. In this narrative review, we summarise current evidence on the downstaging of hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation, including downstaging of patients with macrovascular invasion or extrahepatic metastasis at presentation and employment of the new systemic treatments for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Abstract

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60–70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to “extended” downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Impact of Brazilian expanded criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the main indications for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). In Brazil, selection criteria for HCC is an expanded version of the Milan Criteria (MC), the so-called "Brazilian Milan Criteria" (BMC). Our aims were to evaluate post-OLT outcomes in patients with HCC and analyze the BMC performance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study, analyzing medical records of 1,059 liver transplant recipients with HCC. Tumor was staged according to MC and BMC and correlated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). We compared the ability of MC and BMC to predict OS and DFS using Delta C-statistic.

RESULTS

Post-OLT OS were 63% in five years and HCC recurrence was observed in 8% of patients. At diagnosis, 85% of patients were within MC. Patients within MC at diagnosis and in the explant showed a higher OS and DFS than patients outside MC and within BMC and patients outside both criteria (p < 0.001). Patients outside MC in the explant had an increased risk of tumor recurrence (HR: 3.78; p < 0.001) and poor survival (HR:1.77; p = 0.003). The BMC presented a lower performance than MC in properly classifying patients regarding recurrence risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large Brazilian cohort of HCC patients submitted to liver transplantation, we observed satisfactory overall survival and recurrence rates. However, patients transplanted within the Brazilian expanded criteria had lower OS and DFS when compared to patients within MC, which may generate future discussions regarding the criteria currently used.

Prognostic Factors of Liver Transplantation for HCC: Comparative Literature Review

PURPOSE

The aim of the review study is investigation of the prognostic factors of the liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma.

METHODS

A literature review has been made, especially in countries where dominantly living donor liver transplantation is performed, such as Turkey. Liver transplantation from deceased donor and from living donor has been evaluated about as advantages and disadvantages, and their effects on prognosis have been compared. In addition, hepatocellular carcinoma series of Koç University Liver Transplantation center has been presented.

RESULTS

Liver transplantation is still the best treatment option with 5-year 50% survival rate for hepatocellular carcinoma even in patient who has locally advanced tumor. The patient's survival is not only an important issue but also the living donor's safety is controversial particularly when expectation of recipient's 5-year survival is below 50% due to donor complication.

CONCLUSION

Detailed preoperative examination, appropriate patient selection, and timing of surgery are seen the most important issues in liver transplant's patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Alpha-Fetoprotein in Predicting Survival of Patients with Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Resection

Background/Aim: Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) had been used as a prognostic factor in hepatocellular carcinoma but it was unknown what level of AFP could predict the survival of patients with ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma (rHCC) after resection. This retrospective study was to identify the best cutoff value of AFP for this prediction.Methods: Data of patients having hepatectomy for rHCC from 1989 to 2015 were reviewed. The receiver operating characteristic curve and Youden's index were used to identify the cutoff value of AFP affecting survival. The patients were then divided into two groups by the cutoff for comparison.Results: Totally 114 patients were included. An AFP level of 256 ng/ml was found to affect survival (area under curve 63.1%, 95% confidence interval 0.514-0.748, p = 0.027; sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.706). The 114 patients were divided into Group A (AFP < 256 ng/ml, n = 56) and Group B (AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml, n = 58). The median AFP level was 13.0 ng/ml (range, 2-253 ng/ml) in Group A and 11206.5 ng/ml (range, 259-481,000 ng/ml) in Group B (p < 0.001). Group A had a larger proportion of patients receiving transarterial embolization at the time of rupture, and the time to hepatectomy was longer in this group. Patients in Group B had more blood loss, more complications, larger tumors, and more cases of macrovascular/microvascular invasion. Overall survival (p = 0.013) and disease-free survival (p = 0.024) were significantly better in Group A. On multivariate analysis, AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml was an independent risk factor for overall survival.Conclusion: AFP ≥ 256 ng/ml had an adverse impact on the survival of patients with rHCC after resection.

Whole blood viscosity is associated with extrahepatic metastases and survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Whole blood viscosity (WBV) is increased in cancer patients and associated with the advanced stage with systemic metastases. However, relevance of WBV in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains unclear. This pilot study included a discovery cohort of 148 treatment-naïve HCC patients with preserved liver function, and a validation cohort of 33 treatment-experienced HCC patients with nivolumab. Systolic and diastolic WBV was measured using an automated scanning capillary tube viscometer at diagnosis or before the nivolumab treatment. Extrahepatic metastases were observed in 15 treatment-naïve patients (11.3%) at diagnosis. Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT), tumor size, number of tumors, and systolic/diastolic WBV were factors associated with extrahepatic metastases. Systolic WBV and diastolic WBV were significantly increased in patients with metastases compared with patients without metastases. Multivariate logistic regression showed that high diastolic WBV > 16 cP was an independent factor associated with metastases. Notably, patients who developed extrahepatic metastases during the observation period among patients without metastases at diagnosis had higher diastolic WBV initially. Patients with high diastolic WBV had poor survival, and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed high diastolic WBV was an independent risk factor for poor survival with the Child-Pugh B7 and PVTT. High diastolic WBV also predicted poor survival in patients with low alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and proteins induced by vitamin K antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) levels. In 33 nivolumab-treated patients, high diastolic WBV before the treatment was also tended to be associated with overall and progression-free survival. Our study is the first in which high WBV is associated with the distant metastases and survival in patients with HCC, but future prospective, large cohort studies are necessary to validate the results.

Regorafenib Efficacy After Sorafenib in Patients With Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study

Safety of regorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) has been recently demonstrated. We aimed to assess the survival benefit of regorafenib compared with best supportive care (BSC) in LT patients after sorafenib discontinuation. This observational multicenter retrospective study included LT patients with HCC recurrence who discontinued first-line sorafenib. Group 1 comprised regorafenib-treated patients, whereas the control group was selected among patients treated with BSC due to unavailability of second-line options at the time of sorafenib discontinuation and who were sorafenib-tolerant progressors (group 2). Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) of group 1 compared with group 2. Secondary endpoints were safety and OS of sequential treatment with sorafenib + regorafenib/BSC. Among 132 LT patients who discontinued sorafenib included in the study, 81 were sorafenib tolerant: 36 received regorafenib (group 1) and 45 (group 2) received BSC. Overall, 24 (67%) patients died in group 1 and 40 (89%) in group 2: the median OS was significantly longer in group 1 than in group 2 (13.1 versus 5.5 months; P < 0.01). Regorafenib treatment was an independent predictor of reduced mortality (hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.89; P = 0.02). Median treatment duration with regorafenib was 7.0 (95% CI, 5.5-8.5) months; regorafenib dose was reduced in 22 (61%) patients for adverse events and discontinued for tumor progression in 93% (n = 28). The median OS calculated from sorafenib start was 28.8 months (95% CI, 17.6-40.1) in group 1 versus 15.3 months (95% CI, 8.8-21.7) in group 2 (P < 0.01). Regorafenib is an effective second-line treatment after sorafenib in patients with HCC recurrence after LT.

Pre-Transplant Alpha-Fetoprotein > 25.5 and Its Dynamic on Waitlist Are Predictors of HCC Recurrence after Liver Transplantation for Patients Meeting Milan Criteria

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence rates after liver transplantation (LT) range between 8 and 20%. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) levels at transplant can predict HCC recurrence, however a defined cut-off value is needed to better stratify patients. The aim of this study was to evaluate the rate of HCC recurrence at our centre and to identify predictors, focusing on AFP.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed 236 consecutive patients that were waitlisted for HCC who all met the Milan criteria from January 2001 to December 2017 at our liver transplant centre. A total of twenty-nine patients dropped out while they were waitlisted, and 207 patients were included in the final analysis. All survival analyses included the competing-risk model.

RESULTS

The mean age was 56.8 ± 6.8 years. A total of 14% were female (n = 29/207). The median MELD (model for end-stage liver disease) at LT was 12 (9-16). The median time on the waitlist was 92 (41-170) days. The HCC recurrence rate was 16.4% (n = 34/208). The mean time to recurrence was 3.3 ± 2.8 years. The median AFP levels at transplant were higher in patients with HCC recurrence (p < 0.001). At multivariate analysis, the AFP value at transplant that was greater than 25.5 ng/mL (AUC 0.69) was a strong predictor of HCC recurrence after LT [sHR 3.3 (1.6-6.81); p = 0.001]. The HCC cumulative incidence function (CIF) of recurrence at 10 years from LT was significantly higher in patients with AFP > 25.5 ng/mL [34.3% vs. 11.5% (p = 0.001)]. Moreover, an increase in AFP > 20.8%, was significantly associated with HCC recurrence (p = 0.034).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, in our retrospective study, the AFP level at transplant > 25.5 ng/mL and its increase greater than 20.8% on the waitlist were strong predictors of HCC recurrence after LT in a cohort of patients that were waitlisted within the Milan criteria. However further studies are needed to validate these data.

Risk stratification of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing trans arterial chemoembolization using an alpha-fetoprotein model

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide. There are multiple factors that could affect the malignancy and progression of HCC including tumor number, size, and macrovascular invasion. The alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model was validated as a predictor for HCC recurrence post-liver transplantation, especially in France. However, the AFP model has not been studied on patients with HCC undergoing locoregional treatment. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of the AFP model in patients with HCC undergoing trans arterial chemoembolization (TACE). This cohort study was conducted at Ain Shams University Hospitals, Cairo, Egypt. We included all newly diagnosed patients with HCC who were fit for TACE from January 2012 to January 2017. The AFP model was calculated for each patient before TACE. Subsequently, we classified them into low- and high-risk groups for TACE. The patients were followed up by AFP level and triphasic spiral CT performed 1 month after TACE to evaluate the response then at 4 months and 7 months post TACE to evaluate the local and distant recurrence.

Results

One hundred and thirty-two patients were included in the study. Complete response (CR) was achieved nonsignificantly at a higher percentage in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group. One- and three-year recurrence-free survivals (RFS) were longer in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group (50% and 24.1% vs. 29.1% and 16.2%, respectively). One- and three-year overall survival (OS) rates were 97% and 37.3% in the low-risk group vs. 98.1% and 11.6% in the high-risk group, respectively, without statistical significance. On classifying patients with AFP levels < 100 IU/mL into low- and high-risk patients, CR was achieved in a significantly higher percentage in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group(P < 0.05). Recurrence occurred nonsignificantly in a less percentage in low than high-risk group. The median OS was significantly higher in the low-risk group in comparison with that in the high-risk group (18 vs. 16 months respectively) (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

The AFP model may have a prognostic value for patients with HCC undergoing TACE especially in patients with an AFP level < 100 IU/mL.

Combined proteomic/transcriptomic signature of recurrence post-liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan

Background and aims

Liver transplantation (LT) can be offered to patients with Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond Milan criteria. However, there are currently limited molecular markers on HCC explant histology to predict recurrence, which arises in up to 20% of LT recipients. The goal of our study was to derive a combined proteomic/transcriptomic signature on HCC explant predictive of recurrence post-transplant using unbiased, high-throughput approaches.

Methods

Patients who received a LT for HCC beyond Milan criteria in the context of hepatitis B cirrhosis were identified. Tumor explants from patients with post-transplant HCC recurrence (N = 7) versus those without recurrence (N = 4) were analyzed by mass spectrometry and gene expression array. Univariate analysis was used to generate a combined proteomic/transcriptomic signature linked to recurrence. Significantly predictive genes and proteins were verified and internally validated by immunoblotting and immunohistochemistry.

Results

Seventy-nine proteins and 636 genes were significantly differentially expressed in HCC tumors with subsequent recurrence (p < 0.05). Univariate survival analysis identified Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 1 Family Member A1 (ALDH1A1) gene (HR = 0.084, 95%CI 0.01–0.68, p = 0.0152), ALDH1A1 protein (HR = 0.039, 95%CI 0.16–0.91, p = 0.03), Galectin 3 Binding Protein (LGALS3BP) gene (HR = 7.14, 95%CI 1.20–432.96, p = 0.03), LGALS3BP protein (HR = 2.6, 95%CI 1.1–6.1, p = 0.036), Galectin 3 (LGALS3) gene (HR = 2.89, 95%CI 1.01–8.3, p = 0.049) and LGALS3 protein (HR = 2.6, 95%CI 1.2–5.5, p = 0.015) as key dysregulated analytes in recurrent HCC. In concordance with our proteome findings, HCC recurrence was linked to decreased ALDH1A1 and increased LGALS3 protein expression by Western Blot. LGALS3BP protein expression was validated in 29 independent HCC samples.

Conclusions

Significantly increased LGALS3 and LGALS3BP gene and protein expression on explant were associated with post-transplant recurrence, whereas increased ALDH1A1 was associated with absence of recurrence in patients transplanted for HCC beyond Milan criteria. This combined proteomic/transcriptomic signature could help in predicting HCC recurrence risk and guide post-transplant surveillance.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12014-021-09333-x.

Predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using a novel model that incorporates tumor and donor-related factors

Evidence suggests that liver graft quality impacts on posttransplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As of today, selection criteria only use variables related to tumor characteristics. Within the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2016 (development cohort, n = 10 887). Based on tumor recurrence rates, we fitted a competing-risk regression incorporating tumor- and donor-related factors, and we developed a prognostic score. Results were validated both internally and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry. Total tumor diameter (subhazard ratio [sub-HR] 1.52 [1.28-1.81]), alpha-feto protein (sub-HR 1.27 [1.23-1.32], recipient male gender (sub-HR 1.43 [1.18-1.74]), elevated donor body mass index (sub-HR 1.26 [1.01-1.58]), and shared graft allocation policy (sub-HR 1.20 [1.01-1.43]) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. We next developed the Darlica score (sub-HR 2.72 [2.41-3.08] P < 0.001) that allows identifying risky combinations between a given donor and a given recipient. Results were validated internally (n = 3 629) and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry (n = 370). The current score is based on variables that are readily available at the time of graft offer. It allows identifying hazardous donor-recipient combinations in terms of risk of tumor recurrence and overall survival.

Impact of body mass index on hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation through long-term follow-up

Background

Obesity is associated with increased oncological risk and outcomes but the evidence surrounding the effect of body mass index (BMI) on increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) is still questionable. The purpose of this retrospective study of a large cohort of adult patients transplanted for HCC was to investigate the effect of BMI on the incidence of HCC recurrence and outcome.

Methods

Data from 427 adult recipients transplanted for HCC between 2000 and 2017 were collected. Patients were classified at time of LT according to the World Health Organization BMI classification into 3 groups; group 1: BMI <25 (n=166), group 2: BMI 25-29.9 (n=150) and group 3: BMI ≥30 (n=111).

Results

There were no significant changes of mean BMI overtime 26.8±5.0 kg/m2 at time of LT and 28.8±23.1 at 5 years. The recurrence rates of HCC after LT in the three groups were 19%, 16% and 17% respectively. The 5, 10 and 15-year recurrence free survival (RFS) rates were respectively 68.6%, 47.3% and 40.8% in group 1, 73.3%, 66.2% and 49.5% in group 2 and 68.8%, 57.5% and 47.7% in group 3 (log rank P=0.47).

Conclusions

Recipient BMI at time of transplant and during follow-up didn't impact the incidence of HCC recurrence nor long-term patient survival, irrespective to the status of the patients and their tumor characteristic at time of LT. The present study clearly confirms that obesity should not be considered, when selecting patients with HCC to LT, as a predictive factor of recurrence.

The Need to Update Endpoints and Outcome Analysis in the Rapidly Changing Field of Liver Transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) survival rates have continued to improve over the last decades, mostly due to the reduction of mortality early after transplantation. The advancement is facilitating a liberalization of access to LT, with more patients with higher risk profiles being added to the waiting list. At the same time, the persisting organ shortage fosters strategies to rescue organs of high-risk donors. This is facilitated by novel technologies such as machine perfusion. Owing to these developments, reconsideration of the current and emerging endpoints for the assessment of the efficacy of existing and new therapies is warranted. While conventional early endpoints in LT have focused on the damage induced to the parenchyma, the fate of the bile duct and the recurrence of the underlying disease have a stronger impact on the long-term outcome. In light of this evolving landscape, we here attempt to reflect on the appropriateness of the currently used endpoints in the field of LT trials.