Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy

In a warmer Arctic, mosquitoes avoid increased mortality from predators by growing faster

Climate change is altering environmental temperature, a factor that influences ectothermic organisms by controlling rates of physiological processes. Demographic effects of warming, however, are determined by the expression of these physiological effects through predator-prey and other species interactions. Using field observations and controlled experiments, we measured how increasing temperatures in the Arctic affected development rates and mortality rates (from predation) of immature Arctic mosquitoes in western Greenland. We then developed and parametrized a demographic model to evaluate how temperature affects survival of mosquitoes from the immature to the adult stage. Our studies showed that warming increased development rate of immature mosquitoes (Q10 = 2.8) but also increased daily mortality from increased predation rates by a dytiscid beetle (Q10 = 1.2-1.5). Despite increased daily mortality, the model indicated that faster development and fewer days exposed to predators resulted in an increased probability of mosquito survival to the adult stage. Warming also advanced mosquito phenology, bringing mosquitoes into phenological synchrony with caribou. Increases in biting pests will have negative consequences for caribou and their role as a subsistence resource for local communities. Generalizable frameworks that account for multiple effects of temperature are needed to understand how climate change impacts coupled human-natural systems.

Early warning signals detect critical impacts of experimental warming

Earth's surface temperatures are projected to increase by ~1-4°C over the next century, threatening the future of global biodiversity and ecosystem stability. While this has fueled major progress in the field of physiological trait responses to warming, it is currently unclear whether routine population monitoring data can be used to predict temperature-induced population collapse. Here, we integrate trait performance theory with that of critical tipping points to test whether early warning signals can be reliably used to anticipate thermally induced extinction events. We find that a model parameterized by experimental growth rates exhibits critical slowing down in the vicinity of an experimentally tested critical threshold, suggesting that dynamical early warning signals may be useful in detecting the potentially precipitous onset of population collapse due to global climate change.

Climate constrains lake community and ecosystem responses to introduced predators

Human activities have resulted in rising temperatures and the introduction or extirpation of top predators worldwide. Both processes generate cascading impacts throughout food webs and can jeopardize important ecosystem services. We examined the impact of fish stocking on communities and ecosystems in California mountain lakes across an elevation (temperature and dissolved organic carbon) gradient to determine how trophic cascades and ecosystem function vary with climate. Here, we show that the impact of fish on the pelagic consumer-to-producer biomass ratio strengthened at low elevation, while invertebrate community composition and benthic ecosystem rates (periphyton production and litter decomposition) were most influenced by predators at high elevation. A warming climate may therefore alter the stability of lake ecosystems by shifting the strength of top-down control by introduced predators over food web structure and function.

Modelling algae-duckweed interaction under chemical pressure within a laboratory microcosm

Contaminant effects on species are generally assessed with single-species bioassays. As a consequence, interactions between species that occur in ecosystems are not taken into account. To investigate the effects of contaminants on interacting species dynamics, our study describes the functioning of a 2-L laboratory microcosm with two species, the duckweed Lemna minor and the microalgae Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata, exposed to cadmium contamination. We modelled the dynamics of both species and their interactions using a mechanistic model based on coupled ordinary differential equations. The main processes occurring in this two-species microcosm were thus formalised, including growth and settling of algae, growth of duckweeds, interspecific competition between the two species and cadmium effects. We estimated model parameters by Bayesian inference, using simultaneously all the data issued from multiple laboratory experiments specifically conducted for this study. Cadmium concentrations ranged between 0 and 50 μg·L(-1). For all parameters of our model, we obtained biologically realistic values and reasonable uncertainties. Only duckweed dynamics was affected by interspecific competition, while algal dynamics was not impaired. Growth rate of both species decreased with cadmium concentration, as well as competition intensity showing that the interspecific competition pressure on duckweed decreased with cadmium concentration. This innovative combination of mechanistic modelling and model-guided experiments was successful to understand the algae-duckweed microcosm functioning without and with contaminant. This approach appears promising to include interactions between species when studying contaminant effects on ecosystem functioning.

The effects of climatic fluctuations and extreme events on running water ecosystems

Most research on the effects of environmental change in freshwaters has focused on incremental changes in average conditions, rather than fluctuations or extreme events such as heatwaves, cold snaps, droughts, floods or wildfires, which may have even more profound consequences. Such events are commonly predicted to increase in frequency, intensity and duration with global climate change, with many systems being exposed to conditions with no recent historical precedent. We propose a mechanistic framework for predicting potential impacts of environmental fluctuations on running-water ecosystems by scaling up effects of fluctuations from individuals to entire ecosystems. This framework requires integration of four key components: effects of the environment on individual metabolism, metabolic and biomechanical constraints on fluctuating species interactions, assembly dynamics of local food webs, and mapping the dynamics of the meta-community onto ecosystem function. We illustrate the framework by developing a mathematical model of environmental fluctuations on dynamically assembling food webs. We highlight (currently limited) empirical evidence for emerging insights and theoretical predictions. For example, widely supported predictions about the effects of environmental fluctuations are: high vulnerability of species with high per capita metabolic demands such as large-bodied ones at the top of food webs; simplification of food web network structure and impaired energetic transfer efficiency; and reduced resilience and top-down relative to bottom-up regulation of food web and ecosystem processes. We conclude by identifying key questions and challenges that need to be addressed to develop more accurate and predictive bio-assessments of the effects of fluctuations, and implications of fluctuations for management practices in an increasingly uncertain world.

Crossing regimes of temperature dependence in animal movement

A pressing challenge in ecology is to understand the effects of changing global temperatures on food web structure and dynamics. The stability of these complex ecological networks largely depends on how predator-prey interactions may respond to temperature changes. Because predators and prey rely on their velocities to catch food or avoid being eaten, understanding how temperatures may affect animal movement is central to this quest. Despite our efforts, we still lack a mechanistic understanding of how the effect of temperature on metabolic processes scales up to animal movement and beyond. Here, we merge a biomechanical approach, the Metabolic Theory of Ecology and empirical data to show that animal movement displays multiple regimes of temperature dependence. We also show that crossing these regimes has important consequences for population dynamics and stability, which depend on the parameters controlling predator-prey interactions. We argue that this dependence upon interaction parameters may help explain why experimental work on the temperature dependence of interaction strengths has so far yielded conflicting results. More importantly, these changes in the temperature dependence of animal movement can have consequences that go well beyond ecological interactions and affect, for example, animal communication, mating, sensory detection, and any behavioral modality dependent on the movement of limbs. Finally, by not taking into account the changes in temperature dependence reported here we might not be able to properly forecast the impact of global warming on ecological processes and propose appropriate mitigation action when needed.

Exploring the role of temperature in the ocean through metabolic scaling

Temperature imposes a constraint on the rates and outcomes of ecological processes that determine community- and ecosystem-level patterns. The application of metabolic scaling theory has advanced our understanding of the influence of temperature on pattern and process in marine communities. Metabolic scaling theory uses the fundamental and ubiquitous patterns of temperature-dependent metabolism to predict how environmental temperature influences patterns and processes at higher levels of biological organization. Here, we outline some of these predictions to review recent advances and illustrate how scaling theory might be applied to new challenges. For example, warming can alter species interactions and food-web structure and can also reduce total animal biomass supportable by a given amount of primary production by increasing animal metabolism and energetic demand. Additionally, within a species, larval development is faster in warmer water, potentially influencing dispersal and other demographic processes like population connectivity and gene flow. These predictions can be extended further to address major questions in marine ecology, and present an opportunity for conceptual unification of marine ecological research across levels of biological organization. Drawing on work by ecologists and oceanographers over the last century, a metabolic scaling approach represents a promising way forward for applying ecological understanding to basic questions as well as conservation challenges.

The Effects of Sub-Regional Climate Velocity on the Distribution and Spatial Extent of Marine Species Assemblages

Many studies illustrate variable patterns in individual species distribution shifts in response to changing temperature. However, an assemblage, a group of species that shares a common environmental niche, will likely exhibit similar responses to climate changes, and these community-level responses may have significant implications for ecosystem function. Therefore, we examine the relationship between observed shifts of species in assemblages and regional climate velocity (i.e., the rate and direction of change of temperature isotherms). The assemblages are defined in two sub-regions of the U.S. Northeast Shelf that have heterogeneous oceanography and bathymetry using four decades of bottom trawl survey data and we explore temporal changes in distribution, spatial range extent, thermal habitat area, and biomass, within assemblages. These sub-regional analyses allow the dissection of the relative roles of regional climate velocity and local physiography in shaping observed distribution shifts. We find that assemblages of species associated with shallower, warmer waters tend to shift west-southwest and to shallower waters over time, possibly towards cooler temperatures in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Maine, while species assemblages associated with relatively cooler and deeper waters shift deeper, but with little latitudinal change. Conversely, species assemblages associated with warmer and shallower water on the broad, shallow continental shelf from the Mid-Atlantic Bight to Georges Bank shift strongly northeast along latitudinal gradients with little change in depth. Shifts in depth among the southern species associated with deeper and cooler waters are more variable, although predominantly shifts are toward deeper waters. In addition, spatial expansion and contraction of species assemblages in each region corresponds to the area of suitable thermal habitat, but is inversely related to assemblage biomass. This suggests that assemblage distribution shifts in conjunction with expansion or contraction of thermal habitat acts to compress or stretch marine species assemblages, which may respectively amplify or dilute species interactions to an extent that is rarely considered. Overall, regional differences in climate change effects on the movement and extent of species assemblages hold important implications for management, mitigation, and adaptation on the U.S. Northeast Shelf.

Warming can enhance invasion success through asymmetries in energetic performance

Both climate warming and biological invasions are prominent drivers of global environmental change and it is important to determine how they interact. However, beyond tolerance and reproductive thresholds, little is known about temperature dependence of invaders' performance, particularly in the light of competitive attributes of functionally similar native species. We used experimentally derived energy budgets and field temperature data to determine whether anticipated warming will asymmetrically affect the energy budgets of the globally invasive Ponto-Caspian mysid crustacean Hemimysis anomala and a functionally similar native competitor (Mysis salemaai) whose range is currently being invaded. In contrast to M. salemaai, which maintains a constant feeding rate with temperature leading to diminishing energy assimilation, we found that H. anomala increases its feeding rate with temperature in parallel with growing metabolic demand. This enabled the invader to maintain high energy assimilation rates, conferring substantially higher scope for growth compared to the native analogue at spring-to-autumn temperatures. Anticipated warming will likely exacerbate this energetic asymmetry and remove the winter overlap, which, given the seasonal limitation of mutually preferred prey, appears to underpin coexistence of the two species. These results indicate that temperature-dependent asymmetries in scope for growth between invaders and native analogues comprise an important mechanism determining invasion success under warming climates. They also highlight the importance of considering relevant spectra of ecological contexts in predicting successful invaders and their impacts under warming scenarios.

Real versus Artificial Variation in the Thermal Sensitivity of Biological Traits

Whether the thermal sensitivity of an organism's traits follows the simple Boltzmann-Arrhenius model remains a contentious issue that centers around consideration of its operational temperature range and whether the sensitivity corresponds to one or a few underlying rate-limiting enzymes. Resolving this issue is crucial, because mechanistic models for temperature dependence of traits are required to predict the biological effects of climate change. Here, by combining theory with data on 1,085 thermal responses from a wide range of traits and organisms, we show that substantial variation in thermal sensitivity (activation energy) estimates can arise simply because of variation in the range of measured temperatures. Furthermore, when thermal responses deviate systematically from the Boltzmann-Arrhenius model, variation in measured temperature ranges across studies can bias estimated activation energy distributions toward higher mean, median, variance, and skewness. Remarkably, this bias alone can yield activation energies that encompass the range expected from biochemical reactions (from ~0.2 to 1.2 eV), making it difficult to establish whether a single activation energy appropriately captures thermal sensitivity. We provide guidelines and a simple equation for partially correcting for such artifacts. Our results have important implications for understanding the mechanistic basis of thermal responses of biological traits and for accurately modeling effects of variation in thermal sensitivity on responses of individuals, populations, and ecological communities to changing climatic temperatures.

Effect of substrate temperature on behavioural plasticity in antlion larvae

Temperature is of crucial importance, affecting all aspects of insect life such as survival, development and daily activity patterns, and consequently behaviour. In the present study we evaluated the effect of temperature on the behavioural plasticity of antlion larvae, the sit-and-wait predators, which are considerably more dependent on local habitat conditions. We provided ethological descriptions of pit construction and feeding behaviour. An increase in temperature led to greater activity and consequently to greater frequency of sand tossing during pit construction. Larvae constructed bigger pits at higher temperatures, but required less time than at lower temperatures, when the resulting pits were the smallest. At low temperature, larvae required more time for feeding, and behaviour followed a core pattern with little variety, in comparison to behaviour at high temperatures. Two behavioural patterns occurred only at the highest temperature: ‘relocation’ and ‘submergence’, presumably in response to high temperatures.

Interactive effects of warming, eutrophication and size structure: impacts on biodiversity and food-web structure

Warming and eutrophication are two of the most important global change stressors for natural ecosystems, but their interaction is poorly understood. We used a dynamic model of complex, size-structured food webs to assess interactive effects on diversity and network structure. We found antagonistic impacts: Warming increases diversity in eutrophic systems and decreases it in oligotrophic systems. These effects interact with the community size structure: Communities of similarly sized species such as parasitoid-host systems are stabilized by warming and destabilized by eutrophication, whereas the diversity of size-structured predator-prey networks decreases strongly with warming, but decreases only weakly with eutrophication. Nonrandom extinction risks for generalists and specialists lead to higher connectance in networks without size structure and lower connectance in size-structured communities. Overall, our results unravel interactive impacts of warming and eutrophication and suggest that size structure may serve as an important proxy for predicting the community sensitivity to these global change stressors.

An evidence-based framework for predicting the impact of differing autotroph-heterotroph thermal sensitivities on consumer-prey dynamics

Increased temperature accelerates vital rates, influencing microbial population and wider ecosystem dynamics, for example, the predicted increases in cyanobacterial blooms associated with global warming. However, heterotrophic and mixotrophic protists, which are dominant grazers of microalgae, may be more thermally sensitive than autotrophs, and thus prey could be suppressed as temperature rises. Theoretical and meta-analyses have begun to address this issue, but an appropriate framework linking experimental data with theory is lacking. Using ecophysiological data to develop a novel model structure, we provide the first validation of this thermal sensitivity hypothesis: increased temperature improves the consumer's ability to control the autotrophic prey. Specifically, the model accounts for temperature effects on auto- and mixotrophs and ingestion, growth and mortality rates, using an ecologically and economically important system (cyanobacteria grazed by a mixotrophic flagellate). Once established, we show the model to be a good predictor of temperature impacts on consumer–prey dynamics by comparing simulations with microcosm observations. Then, through simulations, we indicate our conclusions remain valid, even with large changes in bottom-up factors (prey growth and carrying capacity). In conclusion, we show that rising temperature could, counterintuitively, reduce the propensity for microalgal blooms to occur and, critically, provide a novel model framework for needed, continued assessment.

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO₂ from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities.

A five-year mesocosm experiment shows that warmer water temperatures increase the biodiversity and productivity of phytoplankton communities.

At the global scale, phytoplankton take up about as much carbon dioxide (CO₂) as the tropical rainforests. However, in spite of their importance in global carbon cycles, we understand very little about how phytoplankton communities and the critical functions they mediate, including CO₂ sequestration, are likely to change as the climate warms in the coming decades. In this study, we report the results of a five-year warming study in experimental outdoor ponds, known as mesocosms. Warmed (+4°C) communities had 67% more species and higher rates of gross primary productivity (CO₂ fixation). Our results show that warming resulted in higher productivity by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the phytoplankton. Warming also changed the species composition of the phytoplankton communities by favouring larger organisms that were more resistant to grazing from zooplankton. Our work demonstrates that future global warming is likely to have major impacts on the composition, biodiversity, and functioning of planktonic ecosystems by affecting metabolic rates and species interactions. The increases in the biodiversity and productivity of the phytoplankton seen in this study also highlights that the effects of a warming environment might not always be adverse for all ecosystems.

Beyond body mass: how prey traits improve predictions of functional response parameters

Understanding the factors that determine the strength of predator-prey interactions is essential to understanding community structure and stability. Variation in the strength of predator-prey interactions often can be attributed to predator mass and prey mass, or abiotic factors like temperature. However, even when accounting for these factors, there remains a considerable amount of unexplained variation that may be attributed to other traits. We compiled functional response data from the literature to investigate how predator mass, prey mass, prey type (taxonomic identity), temperature, and prey defenses (hard vs soft integument) contributed to the variation found in the predator-prey interactions between freshwater cyclopoid copepods and their prey. Surprisingly, our results indicate that prey identity (taxonomic group) and defenses (hard vs soft integument) are more important for generating variation in interaction strengths than body mass and temperature. This suggests that allometric functions can only take us so far when attempting to better understand variation in individual predator prey interactions, and that we must evaluate how other traits influence interaction strengths. Identifying additional factors such as prey defenses may enable us to better predict potential changes in the structure and function of planktonic and other food webs by better accounting for the variation in the interactions between generalists and their many prey types.

Body size, swimming speed, or thermal sensitivity? Predator-imposed selection on amphibian larvae

Background

Many animals rely on their escape performance during predator encounters. Because of its dependence on body size and temperature, escape velocity is fully characterized by three measures, absolute value, size-corrected value, and its response to temperature (thermal sensitivity). The primary target of the selection imposed by predators is poorly understood. We examined predator (dragonfly larva)-imposed selection on prey (newt larvae) body size and characteristics of escape velocity using replicated and controlled predation experiments under seminatural conditions. Specifically, because these species experience a wide range of temperatures throughout their larval phases, we predict that larvae achieving high swimming velocities across temperatures will have a selective advantage over more thermally sensitive individuals.

Results

Nonzero selection differentials indicated that predators selected for prey body size and both absolute and size-corrected maximum swimming velocity. Comparison of selection differentials with control confirmed selection only on body size, i.e., dragonfly larvae preferably preyed on small newt larvae. Maximum swimming velocity and its thermal sensitivity showed low group repeatability, which contributed to non-detectable selection on both characteristics of escape performance.

Conclusions

In the newt-dragonfly larvae interaction, body size plays a more important role than maximum values and thermal sensitivity of swimming velocity during predator escape. This corroborates the general importance of body size in predator–prey interactions. The absence of an appropriate control in predation experiments may lead to potentially misleading conclusions about the primary target of predator-imposed selection. Insights from predation experiments contribute to our understanding of the link between performance and fitness, and further improve mechanistic models of predator–prey interactions and food web dynamics.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0522-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Temperature dependence of predation depends on the relative performance of predators and prey

The temperature dependence of predation rates is a key issue for understanding and predicting the responses of ecosystems to climate change. Using a simple mechanistic model, we demonstrate that differences in the relative performances of predator and prey can cause strong threshold effects in the temperature dependence of attack rates. Empirical data on the attack rate of northern pike (Esox lucius) feeding on brown trout (Salmo trutta) confirm this result. Attack rates fell sharply below a threshold temperature of +11°C, which corresponded to a shift in relative performance of pike and brown trout with respect to maximum attack and escape swimming speeds. The average attack speed of pike was an order of magnitude lower than the escape speed of brown trout at 5°C, but approximately equal at temperatures above 11°C. Thresholds in the temperature dependence of ecological rates can create tipping points in the responses of ecosystems to increasing temperatures. Thus, identifying thresholds is crucial when predicting future effects of climate warming.

Thermal acclimation modulates the impacts of temperature and enrichment on trophic interaction strengths and population dynamics

Global change affects individual phenotypes and biotic interactions, which can have cascading effects up to the ecosystem level. However, the role of environmentally induced phenotypic plasticity in species interactions is poorly understood, leaving a substantial gap in our knowledge of the impacts of global change on ecosystems. Using a cladoceran-dragonfly system, we experimentally investigated the effects of thermal acclimation, acute temperature change and enrichment on predator functional response and metabolic rate. Using our experimental data, we next parameterized a population dynamics model to determine the consequences of these effects on trophic interaction strength and food-chain stability. We found that (1) predation and metabolic rates of the dragonfly larvae increase with acute warming, (2) warm-acclimated larvae have a higher maximum predation rate than cold-acclimated ones, and (3) long-term interaction strength increases with enrichment but decreases with both acclimation and acute temperatures. Overall, our experimental results show that thermal acclimation can buffer negative impacts of environmental change on predators and increase food-web stability and persistence. We conclude that the effect of acclimation and, more generally, phenotypic plasticity on trophic interactions should not be overlooked if we aim to understand the effects of climate change and enrichment on species interaction strength and food-web stability.

Analyses of Developmental Rate Isomorphy in Ectotherms: Introducing the Dirichlet Regression

Temperature drives development in insects and other ectotherms because their metabolic rate and growth depends directly on thermal conditions. However, relative durations of successive ontogenetic stages often remain nearly constant across a substantial range of temperatures. This pattern, termed ‘developmental rate isomorphy’ (DRI) in insects, appears to be widespread and reported departures from DRI are generally very small. We show that these conclusions may be due to the caveats hidden in the statistical methods currently used to study DRI. Because the DRI concept is inherently based on proportional data, we propose that Dirichlet regression applied to individual-level data is an appropriate statistical method to critically assess DRI. As a case study we analyze data on five aquatic and four terrestrial insect species. We find that results obtained by Dirichlet regression are consistent with DRI violation in at least eight of the studied species, although standard analysis detects significant departure from DRI in only four of them. Moreover, the departures from DRI detected by Dirichlet regression are consistently much larger than previously reported. The proposed framework can also be used to infer whether observed departures from DRI reflect life history adaptations to size- or stage-dependent effects of varying temperature. Our results indicate that the concept of DRI in insects and other ectotherms should be critically re-evaluated and put in a wider context, including the concept of ‘equiproportional development’ developed for copepods.

Drivers of Daily Routines in an Ectothermic Marine Predator: Hunt Warm, Rest Warmer?

Animal daily routines represent a compromise between maximizing foraging success and optimizing physiological performance, while minimizing the risk of predation. For ectothermic predators, ambient temperature may also influence daily routines through its effects on physiological performance. Temperatures can fluctuate significantly over the diel cycle and ectotherms may synchronize behaviour to match thermal regimes in order to optimize fitness. We used bio-logging to quantify activity and body temperature of blacktip reef sharks (Carcharhinus melanopterus) at a tropical atoll. Behavioural observations were used to concurrently measure bite rates in herbivorous reef fishes, as an index of activity for potential diurnal prey. Sharks showed early evening peaks in activity, particularly during ebbing high tides, while body temperatures peaked several hours prior to the period of maximal activity. Herbivores also displayed peaks in activity several hours earlier than the peaks in shark activity. Sharks appeared to be least active while their body temperatures were highest and most active while temperatures were cooling, although we hypothesize that due to thermal inertia they were still warmer than their smaller prey during this period. Sharks may be most active during early evening periods as they have a sensory advantage under low light conditions and/or a thermal advantage over cooler prey. Sharks swam into shallow water during daytime low tide periods potentially to warm up and increase rates of digestion before the nocturnal activity period, which may be a strategy to maximize ingestion rates. “Hunt warm, rest warmer” may help explain the early evening activity seen in other ectothermic predators.

The effects of temperature on aerobic metabolism: towards a mechanistic understanding of the responses of ectotherms to a changing environment

Because of its profound effects on the rates of biological processes such as aerobic metabolism, environmental temperature plays an important role in shaping the distribution and abundance of species. As temperature increases, the rate of metabolism increases and then rapidly declines at higher temperatures – a response that can be described using a thermal performance curve (TPC). Although the shape of the TPC for aerobic metabolism is often attributed to the competing effects of thermodynamics, which can be described using the Arrhenius equation, and the effects of temperature on protein stability, this account represents an over-simplification of the factors acting even at the level of single proteins. In addition, it cannot adequately account for the effects of temperature on complex multistep processes, such as aerobic metabolism, that rely on mechanisms acting across multiple levels of biological organization. The purpose of this review is to explore our current understanding of the factors that shape the TPC for aerobic metabolism in response to acute changes in temperature, and to highlight areas where this understanding is weak or insufficient. Developing a more strongly grounded mechanistic model to account for the shape of the TPC for aerobic metabolism is crucial because these TPCs are the foundation of several recent attempts to predict the responses of species to climate change, including the metabolic theory of ecology and the hypothesis of oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance.

Body size and the behavioral ecology of insects: linking individuals to ecological communities

The role of body size as a key feature determining the biology and ecology of individual animals, and thus the structure and dynamics of populations, communities, and ecosystems, has long been acknowledged. Body size provides a functional link between individual-level processes such as physiology and behavior, with higher-level ecological processes such as the strength and outcome of trophic interactions, which regulate the flow of energy and nutrients within and across ecosystems. Early ecological work on size in animals focused on vertebrates, and especially mammals. More recent focus on invertebrates, and insects in particular, that spans levels of organization from individual physiology to communities, has greatly expanded and improved our understanding of the role of body size in ecology. Progress has come from theoretical advances, from the production of new, high-resolution empirical data sets, and from enhanced computation and analytical techniques. Recent findings suggest that many of the allometric concepts and principles developed over the last century also apply to insects. But these recent studies also emphasize that while body size plays a crucial role in insect ecology, it is not the entire story, and a fuller understanding must come from an approach that integrates both size and non-size effects. In this review we discuss the core principles of a size-based (allometric) approach in insect ecology, together with the potential of such an approach to connect biological processes and mechanisms across levels of organization from individuals to ecosystems. We identify knowledge gaps, particularly related to size constraints on insect movement and behavior, which can impact the strength and outcome of species interactions (and especially trophic interactions) and thus link individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. Addressing these gaps should facilitate a fuller understanding of insect ecology, with important basic and applied benefits.

Patterns of thermal constraint on ectotherm activity

Thermal activity constraints play a major role in many aspects of ectotherm ecology, including vulnerability to climate change. Therefore, there is strong interest in developing general models of the temperature dependence of activity. Several models have been put forth (explicitly or implicitly) to describe such constraints; nonetheless, tests of the predictive abilities of these models are lacking. In addition, most models consider activity as a threshold trait instead of considering continuous changes in the vigor of activity among individuals. Using field data for a tropical lizard (Anolis cristatellus) and simulations parameterized by our observations, we determine how well various threshold and continuous-activity models match observed activity patterns. No models accurately predicted activity under all of the thermal conditions that we considered. In addition, simulations showed that the performance of threshold models decreased as temperatures increased, which is a troubling finding given the threat of global climate change. We also find that activity rates are more sensitive to temperature than are the physiological traits often used as a proxy for fitness. We present a model of thermal constraint on activity that integrates aspects of both the threshold model and the continuous-activity model, the general features of which are supported by activity data from other species. Overall, our results demonstrate that greater attention should be given to fine-scale patterns of thermal constraint on activity.

The body size dependence of trophic cascades

Trophic cascades are indirect positive effects of predators on resources via control of intermediate consumers. Larger-bodied predators appear to induce stronger trophic cascades (a greater rebound of resource density toward carrying capacity), but how this happens is unknown because we lack a clear depiction of how the strength of trophic cascades is determined. Using consumer resource models, we first show that the strength of a trophic cascade has an upper limit set by the interaction strength between the basal trophic group and its consumer and that this limit is approached as the interaction strength between the consumer and its predator increases. We then express the strength of a trophic cascade explicitly in terms of predator body size and use two independent parameter sets to calculate how the strength of a trophic cascade depends on predator size. Both parameter sets predict a positive effect of predator size on the strength of a trophic cascade, driven mostly by the body size dependence of the interaction strength between the first two trophic levels. Our results support previous empirical findings and suggest that the loss of larger predators will have greater consequences on trophic control and biomass structure in food webs than the loss of smaller predators.

Effects of temperature on consumer-resource interactions

Understanding how temperature variation influences the negative (e.g. self-limitation) and positive (e.g. saturating functional responses) feedback processes that characterize consumer-resource interactions is an important research priority. Previous work on this topic has yielded conflicting outcomes with some studies predicting that warming should increase consumer-resource oscillations and others predicting that warming should decrease consumer-resource oscillations. Here, I develop a consumer-resource model that both synthesizes previous findings in a common framework and yields novel insights about temperature effects on consumer-resource dynamics. I report three key findings. First, when the resource species' birth rate exhibits a unimodal temperature response, as demonstrated by a large number of empirical studies, the temperature range over which the consumer-resource interaction can persist is determined by the lower and upper temperature limits to the resource species' reproduction. This contrasts with the predictions of previous studies, which assume that the birth rate exhibits a monotonic temperature response, that consumer extinction is determined by temperature effects on consumer species' traits, rather than the resource species' traits. Secondly, the comparative analysis I have conducted shows that whether warming leads to an increase or decrease in consumer-resource oscillations depends on the manner in which temperature affects intraspecific competition. When the strength of self-limitation increases monotonically with temperature, warming causes a decrease in consumer-resource oscillations. However, if self-limitation is strongest at temperatures physiologically optimal for reproduction, a scenario previously unanalysed by theory but amply substantiated by empirical data, warming can cause an increase in consumer-resource oscillations. Thirdly, the model yields testable comparative predictions about consumer-resource dynamics under alternative hypotheses for how temperature affects competitive and resource acquisition traits. Importantly, it does so through empirically quantifiable metrics for predicting temperature effects on consumer viability and consumer-resource oscillations, which obviates the need for parameterizing complex dynamical models. Tests of these metrics with empirical data on a host-parasitoid interaction yield realistic estimates of temperature limits for consumer persistence and the propensity for consumer-resource oscillations, highlighting their utility in predicting temperature effects, particularly warming, on consumer-resource interactions in both natural and agricultural settings.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important implications in understanding and predicting the effects of temperature on the dynamics of populations.

Temperature-mediated biotic interactions influence enemy release of nonnative species in warming environments

"Enemy release" occurs when invading species suffer from interactions with pathogens, parasites, herbivores, or predators to a lesser degree than native species due to a lack of shared evolutionary history. Here we provide strong support for the hypothesis that variable thermal sensitivities between a consumer and its resources can generate temperature-dependent enemy release using both a mathematical model and a field experiment. We identify three common scenarios where changes in temperature should alter enemy release based on asymmetric responses among enemies and their resources to changes in temperature: (1) the vital rates of a shared enemy are more sensitive to changes in temperature than its resources, (2) the enemy's thermal maximum for consumption is higher than the resources' maxima for growth, and (3) the invading resource has a higher thermal maximum for growth than its native competitor. Mathematical representations indicated that warming is capable of altering enemy release in each of these three scenarios. We also tested our hypothesis using a mesocosm warming experiment in a system that exhibits variable thermal sensitivities between a predator and its native and nonnative prey. We conducted a six-week experiment manipulating the presence of Lepomis sunfish (present, absent) and water temperature (ambient, heated) using the nonnative crustacean zooplankter, Daphnia lumholtzi, whose morphological defenses reduce predation from juvenile sunfish relative to native Daphnia pulex. Our results indicate that D. lumholtzi benefited to a greater extent from the presence of Lepomis predators as temperatures increase. Taken together, our model and experiment indicate that changes in environmental temperature may directly influence the success of nonnative species and may assist with forecasting the community consequences of biological invasions in a warming world.

Intermittent pool beds are permanent cyclic habitats with distinct wet, moist and dry phases

Recognition that intermittent pools are a single habitat phase of an intermittent pool bed that cycles between aquatic and terrestrial habitat greatly enhances their usefulness for addressing general questions in ecology. The aquatic phase has served as a model system in many ecological studies, because it has distinct habitat boundaries in space and time and is an excellent experimental system, but the aquatic to terrestrial transition and terrestrial phase remain largely unstudied. We conducted a field experiment within six replicate natural intermittent pool beds to explore macroinvertebrate community dynamics during the transition from aquatic to terrestrial habitat and during the terrestrial phase. We monitored and compared macroinvertebrate communities within leaf packs that i) remained wet, ii) underwent drying (i.e., started wet and then dried), and iii) remained dry. Our results show that i) a diverse macroinvertebrate community inhabits all phases of intermittent pool beds, ii) pool drying involves colonization by an assemblage of macroinvertebrates not recorded in permanently terrestrial leaf packs, iii) the community within dried leaf packs remains distinct from that of permanently terrestrial leaf packs for an extended period following drying (possibly until subsequent refilling), and iv) there are likely to be strong spatial and temporal resource linkages between the aquatic and terrestrial communities. The unique environmental characteristics of intermittent pool beds, which repeatedly cycle from aquatic to terrestrial habitat, should continue to make them valuable study systems.

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus

We present a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for the quintessential keystone predator, the rocky-intertidal sea star Pisaster ochraceus. Based on first principles, DEB theory is used to illuminate underlying physiological processes (maintenance, growth, development, and reproduction), thus providing a framework to predict individual-level responses to environmental change. We parameterized the model for P. ochraceus using both data from the literature and experiments conducted specifically for the DEB framework. We devoted special attention to the model’s capacity to (1) describe growth trajectories at different life-stages, including pelagic larval and post-metamorphic phases, (2) simulate shrinkage when prey availability is insufficient to meet maintenance requirements, and (3) deal with the combined effects of changing body temperature and food supply. We further validated the model using an independent growth data set. Using standard statistics to compare model outputs with real data (e.g. Mean Absolute Percent Error, MAPE) we demonstrated that the model is capable of tracking P. ochraceus’ growth in length at different life-stages (larvae: MAPE = 12.27%; post-metamorphic, MAPE = 9.22%), as well as quantifying reproductive output index. However, the model’s skill dropped when trying to predict changes in body mass (MAPE = 24.59%), potentially because of the challenge of precisely anticipating spawning events. Interestingly, the model revealed that P. ochraceus reserves contribute little to total biomass, suggesting that animals draw energy from structure when food is limited. The latter appears to drive indeterminate growth dynamics in P. ochraceus. Individual-based mechanistic models, which can illuminate underlying physiological responses, offer a viable framework for forecasting population dynamics in the keystone predator Pisaster ochraceus. The DEB model herein represents a critical step in that direction, especially in a period of increased anthropogenic pressure on natural systems and an observed recent decline in populations of this keystone species.

The body-size dependence of mutual interference

The parameters that drive population dynamics typically show a relationship with body size. By contrast, there is no theoretical or empirical support for a body-size dependence of mutual interference, which links foraging rates to consumer density. Here, I develop a model to predict that interference may be positively or negatively related to body size depending on how resource body size scales with consumer body size. Over a wide range of body sizes, however, the model predicts that interference will be body-size independent. This prediction was supported by a new dataset on interference and consumer body size. The stabilizing effect of intermediate interference therefore appears to be roughly constant across size, while the effect of body size on population dynamics is mediated through other parameters.

Effects of differential habitat warming on complex communities

Food webs unfold across a mosaic of micro and macro habitats, with each habitat coupled by mobile consumers that behave in response to local environmental conditions. Despite this fundamental characteristic of nature, research on how climate change will affect whole ecosystems has overlooked (i) that climate warming will generally affect habitats differently and (ii) that mobile consumers may respond to this differential change in a manner that may fundamentally alter the energy pathways that sustain ecosystems. This reasoning suggests a powerful, but largely unexplored, avenue for studying the impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Here, we use lake ecosystems to show that predictable behavioral adjustments to local temperature differentials govern a fundamental structural shift across 54 food webs. Data show that the trophic pathways from basal resources to a cold-adapted predator shift toward greater reliance on a cold-water refuge habitat, and food chain length increases, as air temperatures rise. Notably, cold-adapted predator behavior may substantially drive this decoupling effect across the climatic range in our study independent of warmer-adapted species responses (for example, changes in near-shore species abundance and predator absence). Such modifications reflect a flexible food web architecture that requires more attention from climate change research. The trophic pathway restructuring documented here is expected to alter biomass accumulation, through the regulation of energy fluxes to predators, and thus potentially threatens ecosystem sustainability in times of rapid environmental change.