Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far-reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short-term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

Demographics of the zooxanthellate coral Oculina patagonica along the Mediterranean Iberian coast in relation to environmental parameters

Marine ecosystems are threatened by cumulative human-related impacts that cause structural and functional alterations. In the Mediterranean Sea, the zooxanthellate coral Oculina patagonica (Scleractinia, Oculinidae) can turn algal forests into coral-dominated ecosystems and provides a case study for examining how zooxanthellate corals can affect the structure of algal-dominated shallow-water rocky ecosystems in temperate areas. Our goal was to provide a quantitative baseline assessment of O. patagonica demographics along ~1300km of the Mediterranean Iberian coast and relate them to environmental parameters. The highest coral success was in the South Balearic Sea zone, where the populations exhibited >6-fold higher mean living coral cover, lower partial colony mortality and colony size distributions indicating that the populations in this zone were growing faster than those in the peripheral south-west (North Alborán Sea) and north-east (Mid and North Balearic Sea, and West Gulf of Lyons) zones. The coral demographics (i.e., density, cover, and skewness and kurtosis coefficients of colony size distributions) were positively correlated with each other and the annual mean seawater temperature (ST), 10^th-ST percentile (P10^th-ST), 90^th-ST percentile (P90^th-ST) and photosynthetically active radiation at 3-m depth (PAR-3m), but they were negatively correlated with chlorophyll-a. Based on these results, we identified the following thresholds that may constrain the growth of O. patagonica colonies and populations: annual mean ST <19-20°C, P10^th-ST <14°C, P90^th-ST <25°C and >27°C, and PAR-3m <30molphotonsm^-2day^-1. The species abundance along the Iberian coast conforms to the abundant-center pattern of distribution. However, the coral demographics indicated that this pattern was not only related to the time of establishment but also to differences in coral population growth, which were correlated with key environmental parameters. Our results contribute understanding of the forces driving population growth of O. patagonica and support the hypothesis of an ongoing coral-mediated tropicalization of macroalgae-dominated temperate ecosystems.

Seaweed assemblages under a climate change scenario: Functional responses to temperature of eight intertidal seaweeds match recent abundance shifts

Field evidence is essential to assess the consequences of climate change but a solid causal link often requires additional information obtained under controlled laboratory conditions. Additionally, the functional response to temperature may also help to discriminate species potentially more vulnerable to warming. Using a highly resolved temperature gradient, we examined the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration in eight intertidal seaweeds that recently followed opposite abundance trends in NW Iberia. The temperature dependence of photosynthesis was consistently different between the macroalgae that increased and those that decreased their abundance in the last decade and a half, with photosynthesis twice more sensitive in the upward group. Unlike photosynthesis, the temperature dependence of respiration was unrelated to the abundance trend group, implying that the net metabolic scaling with temperature varied between the two groups of seaweeds. Overall, our results provide experimental support to the role of temperate as a likely driver of the changes in abundance recorded by field-monitoring studies. They also suggest that the temperature dependence of photosynthesis and respiration assessed in short-term experiments may serve as a biomarker of the potential vulnerability of some seaweed to the consequences of water warming.

Oceanographic boundaries constrain microbial diversity gradients in the South Pacific Ocean

Marine microbes along with microeukaryotes are key regulators of oceanic biogeochemical pathways. Here we present a high-resolution (every 0.5° of latitude) dataset describing microbial pro- and eukaryotic richness in the surface and just below the thermocline along a 7,000-km transect from 66°S at the Antarctic ice edge to the equator in the South Pacific Ocean. The transect, conducted in austral winter, covered key oceanographic features including crossing of the polar front (PF), the subtropical front (STF), and the equatorial upwelling region. Our data indicate that temperature does not determine patterns of marine microbial richness, complementing the global model data from Ladau et al. [Ladau J, et al. (2013) ISME J 7:1669-1677]. Rather, NH₄⁺, nanophytoplankton, and primary productivity were the main drivers for archaeal and bacterial richness. Eukaryote richness was highest in the least-productive ocean region, the tropical oligotrophic province. We also observed a unique diversity pattern in the South Pacific Ocean: a regional increase in archaeal and bacterial diversity between 10°S and the equator. Rapoport's rule describes the tendency for the latitudinal ranges of species to increase with latitude. Our data showed that the mean latitudinal ranges of archaea and bacteria decreased with latitude. We show that permanent oceanographic features, such as the STF and the equatorial upwelling, can have a significant influence on both alpha-diversity and beta-diversity of pro- and eukaryotes.

Improved fisheries management could offset many negative effects of climate change

The world's oceans supply food and livelihood to billions of people, yet species' shifting geographic ranges and changes in productivity arising from climate change are expected to profoundly affect these benefits. We ask how improvements in fishery management can offset the negative consequences of climate change; we find that the answer hinges on the current status of stocks. The poor current status of many stocks combined with potentially maladaptive responses to range shifts could reduce future global fisheries yields and profits even more severely than previous estimates have suggested. However, reforming fisheries in ways that jointly fix current inefficiencies, adapt to fisheries productivity changes, and proactively create effective transboundary institutions could lead to a future with higher profits and yields compared to what is produced today.

Climate research priorities for policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists in Georgia, USA

Climate change has far-reaching effects on human and ecological systems, requiring collaboration across sectors and disciplines to determine effective responses. To inform regional responses to climate change, decision-makers need credible and relevant information representing a wide swath of knowledge and perspectives. The southeastern U. S. State of Georgia is a valuable focal area for study because it contains multiple ecological zones that vary greatly in land use and economic activities, and it is vulnerable to diverse climate change impacts. We identified 40 important research questions that, if answered, could lay the groundwork for effective, science-based climate action in Georgia. Top research priorities were identified through a broad solicitation of candidate research questions (180 were received). A group of experts across sectors and disciplines gathered for a workshop to categorize, prioritize, and filter the candidate questions, identify missing topics, and rewrite questions. Participants then collectively chose the 40 most important questions. This cross-sectoral effort ensured the inclusion of a diversity of topics and questions (e.g., coastal hazards, agricultural production, ecosystem functioning, urban infrastructure, and human health) likely to be important to Georgia policy-makers, practitioners, and scientists. Several cross-cutting themes emerged, including the need for long-term data collection and consideration of at-risk Georgia citizens and communities. Workshop participants defined effective responses as those that take economic cost, environmental impacts, and social justice into consideration. Our research highlights the importance of collaborators across disciplines and sectors, and discussing challenges and opportunities that will require transdisciplinary solutions.

Regional variation in drivers of connectivity for two frog species (Rana pretiosa and R. luteiventris) from the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Comparative landscape genetics has uncovered high levels of variability in which landscape factors affect connectivity among species and regions. However, the relative importance of species traits versus environmental variation for predicting landscape patterns of connectivity is unresolved. We provide evidence from a landscape genetics study of two sister taxa of frogs, the Oregon spotted frog (Rana pretiosa) and the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) in Oregon and Idaho, USA. Rana pretiosa is relatively more dependent on moisture for dispersal than R. luteiventris, so if species traits influence connectivity, we predicted that connectivity among R. pretiosa populations would be more positively associated with moisture than R. luteiventris. However, if environmental differences are important drivers of gene flow, we predicted that connectivity would be more positively related to moisture in arid regions. We tested these predictions using eight microsatellite loci and gravity models in two R. pretiosa regions and four R. luteiventris regions (n = 1,168 frogs). In R. pretiosa, but not R. luteiventris, connectivity was positively related to mean annual precipitation, supporting our first prediction. In contrast, connectivity was not more positively related to moisture in more arid regions. Various temperature metrics were important predictors for both species and in all regions, but the directionality of their effects varied. Therefore, the pattern of variation in drivers of connectivity was consistent with predictions based on species traits rather than on environmental variation.

Spatial variability in the diversity and structure of faunal assemblages associated with kelp holdfasts (Laminaria hyperborea) in the northeast Atlantic

Kelp species are ecologically-important habitat-formers in coastal marine ecosystems, where they alter environmental conditions and promote local biodiversity by providing complex biogenic habitat for an array of associated organisms. While it is widely accepted that kelps harbour significant biodiversity, our current understanding of spatiotemporal variability in kelp-associated assemblages and the key environmental drivers of variability patterns remains limited. Here we examined the influence of ocean temperature and wave exposure on the structure of faunal assemblages associated with the holdfasts of Laminaria hyperborea, the dominant habitat-forming kelp in the northeast Atlantic. We sampled holdfasts from 12 kelp-dominated open-coast sites nested within four regions across the UK, spanning ~9° in latitude and ~2.7° C in mean sea surface temperature. Overall, holdfast assemblages were highly diverse, with 261 taxa representing 11 phyla recorded across the study. We examined patterns of spatial variability for sessile and mobile taxa separately, and documented high variability between regions, between sites within regions, and between replicate holdfasts for both assemblage types. Mobile assemblage structure was more strongly linked to temperature variability than sessile assemblage structure, which was principally structured by site-level variability in factors such as wave exposure. Patterns in the structure of both biogenic habitat and associated assemblages did not vary predictably along a latitudinal gradient in temperature, indicating that other processes acting across multiple spatial and temporal scales are important drivers of assemblage structure. Overall, kelp holdfasts in the UK supported high levels of diversity, that were similar to other kelp-dominated systems globally and comparable to those recorded for other vegetated marine habitats (i.e. seagrass beds), which are perhaps more widely recognised for their high biodiversity value.

Global assessment of early warning signs that temperature could undergo regime shifts

Climate change metrics have been used to quantify the exposure of geographic areas to different facets of change and relate these facets to different threats and opportunities for biodiversity at a global scale. In parallel, a suite of indicators have been developed to detect approaching transitions between alternative stable states in ecological systems at a local scale. Here, we explore whether particular geographic areas over the world display evidence for upcoming critical transitions in the temperature regime using five Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) commonly used in the literature. Although all EWIs revealed strong spatial variations regarding the likelihood of approaching transitions we found differences regarding the strength and the distribution of trends across the world, suggesting either that different mechanisms might be at play or that EWIs differ in their ability to detect approaching transitions. Nonetheless, a composite EWI, constructed from individual EWIs, showed congruent trends in several areas and highlighted variations across latitudes, between marine and terrestrial systems and among ecoregions within systems. Although the underlying mechanisms are unclear, our results suggest that some areas over the world might change toward an alternative temperature regime in the future with potential implications for the organisms inhabiting these areas.

Defining the Degree of Seasonality and its Significance for Future Research

Seasonality describes cyclic and largely predictable fluctuations in the environment. Such variations in day length, temperature, rainfall, and resource availability are ubiquitous and can exert strong selection pressure on organisms to adapt to seasonal environments. However, seasonal variations exhibit large scale geographical divergences caused by a whole suite of factors such as solar radiation, ocean currents, extent of continents, and topography. Realizing these contributions in driving patterns of overall seasonality may help advance our understanding of the kinds of evolutionary adaptations we should expect at a global scale. Here, we introduce a new concept and provide the data describing the overall degree of seasonality, based on its two major components-amplitude and predictability. Using global terrestrial datasets on temperature, precipitation and primary productivity, we show that these important seasonal factors exhibit strong differences in their spatial patterns with notable asymmetries between the southern and the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that seasonality is highly diverse across latitudes as well as longitudinal gradients. This indicates that using a direct measure of seasonality and its components, amplitude and predictability, may yield a better understanding of how organisms are adapted to seasonal environments and provide support for predictions on the consequences of rapid environmental change.

Comparative analysis of the ecosystems in the northern Adriatic Sea and the Inland Sea of Japan: Can anthropogenic pressures disclose jellyfish outbreaks?

A prominent increase in the moon jellyfish (genus Aurelia) populations has been observed since 1980 in two semi-enclosed temperate seas: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Inland Sea of Japan. Therefore, we reviewed long-term environmental and biotic data from the two Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites, along with the increase in the moon jellyfish occurrence to elucidate how these coastal seas shifted to the jellyfish-dominated ecosystems. The principal component analysis of atmospheric data revealed a simultaneous occurrence of similar climatic changes in the early 1980s; thereafter, air temperature increased steadily and precipitation decreased but became more extreme. Accordingly, the average seawater temperature from March to October, a period of polyps' asexual reproduction i.e. budding, increased, potentially leading to an increase in the reproductive rates of local polyp populations. Conspicuous eutrophication occurred due to the rise of anthropogenic activities in both areas from the 1960s onwards. This coincided with an increase of the stock size of forage fishes, such as anchovy and sardine, but not the population size of the jellyfish. However, by the end of the 1980s, when the eutrophication lessened due to the regulations of nutrients loads from the land, the productive fishing grounds of both systems turned into a state that may be described as 'jellyfish-permeated,' as manifested by a drastic decrease in fish landings and a prominent increase in the intensity and frequency of medusa blooms. A steady increase in artificial marine structures that provide substrate for newly settled polyps might further contribute to the enhancement of jellyfish population size. Elevated fishing pressure and/or predation by jellyfish on ichthyoplankton and zooplankton might jeopardize the recruitment of anchovy, so that the anchovy catch has never recovered fully. These semi-enclosed seas may represent many temperate coastal waters with increased anthropogenic stressors, which have degraded the ecosystem from fish-dominated to jellyfish-dominated.

Projecting shifts in thermal habitat for 686 species on the North American continental shelf

Recent shifts in the geographic distribution of marine species have been linked to shifts in preferred thermal habitats. These shifts in distribution have already posed challenges for living marine resource management, and there is a strong need for projections of how species might be impacted by future changes in ocean temperatures during the 21^st century. We modeled thermal habitat for 686 marine species in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans using long-term ecological survey data from the North American continental shelves. These habitat models were coupled to output from sixteen general circulation models that were run under high (RCP 8.5) and low (RCP 2.6) future greenhouse gas emission scenarios over the 21^st century to produce 32 possible future outcomes for each species. The models generally agreed on the magnitude and direction of future shifts for some species (448 or 429 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6, respectively), but strongly disagreed for other species (116 or 120 respectively). This allowed us to identify species with more or less robust predictions. Future shifts in species distributions were generally poleward and followed the coastline, but also varied among regions and species. Species from the U.S. and Canadian west coast including the Gulf of Alaska had the highest projected magnitude shifts in distribution, and many species shifted more than 1000 km under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Following a strong mitigation scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement would likely produce substantially smaller shifts and less disruption to marine management efforts. Our projections offer an important tool for identifying species, fisheries, and management efforts that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts.

Strong evidence for changing fish reproductive phenology under climate warming on the Tibetan Plateau

Phenological responses to climate change have been widely observed and have profound and lasting effects on ecosystems and biodiversity. However, compared to terrestrial ecosystems, the long-term effects of climate change on species' phenology are poorly understood in aquatic ecosystems. Understanding the long-term changes in fish reproductive phenology is essential for predicting population dynamics and for informing management strategies, but is currently hampered by the requirement for intensive field observations and larval identification. In this study, a very low-frequency sampling of juveniles and adults combined with otolith measurements (long axis length of the first annulus; LAFA) of an endemic Tibetan Plateau fish (Gymnocypris selincuoensis) was used to examine changes in reproductive phenology associated with climate changes from the 1970s to 2000s. Assigning individual fish to their appropriate calendar year class was assisted by dendrochronological methods (crossdating). The results demonstrated that LAFA was significantly and positively associated with temperature and growing season length. To separate the effects of temperature and the growing season length on LAFA growth, measurements of larval otoliths from different sites were conducted and revealed that daily increment additions were the main contributor (46.3%), while temperature contributed less (12.0%). Using constructed water-air temperature relationships and historical air temperature records, we found that the reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis was strongly advanced in the spring during the 1970s and 1990s, while the increased growing season length in the 2000s was mainly due to a delayed onset of winter. The reproductive phenology of G. selincuoensis advanced 2.9 days per decade on average from the 1970s to 2000s, and may have effects on recruitment success and population dynamics of this species and other biota in the ecosystem via the food web. The methods used in this study are applicable for studying reproductive phenological changes across a wide range of species and ecosystems.

Global trends of local ecological knowledge and future implications

Local and indigenous knowledge is being transformed globally, particularly being eroded when pertaining to ecology. In many parts of the world, rural and indigenous communities are facing tremendous cultural, economic and environmental changes, which contribute to weaken their local knowledge base. In the face of profound and ongoing environmental changes, both cultural and biological diversity are likely to be severely impacted as well as local resilience capacities from this loss. In this global literature review, we analyse the drivers of various types of local and indigenous ecological knowledge transformation and assess the directionality of the reported change. Results of this analysis show a global impoverishment of local and indigenous knowledge with 77% of papers reporting the loss of knowledge driven by globalization, modernization, and market integration. The recording of this loss, however, is not symmetrical, with losses being recorded more strongly in medicinal and ethnobotanical knowledge. Persistence of knowledge (15% of the studies) occurred in studies where traditional practices were being maintained consiously and where hybrid knowledge was being produced as a resut of certain types of incentives created by economic development. This review provides some insights into local and indigenous ecological knowledge change, its causes and implications, and recommends venues for the development of replicable and comparative research. The larger implication of these results is that because of the interconnection between cultural and biological diversity, the loss of local and indigenous knowledge is likely to critically threaten effective conservation of biodiversity, particularly in community-based conservation local efforts.

Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life

Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species’ niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species’ niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former.

Thermal tolerance of the invasive red-bellied pacu and the risk of establishment in the United States

Indigenous red-bellied pacu, Piaractus brachypomus, populations are in decline due to overfishing. Once ignored by aquaculturists because of their perceived low economic value, renewed aquaculture efforts in Central and South America aim to relieve fishing pressures on natural pacu populations. In the southern United States pacu aquaculture for the aquarium trade has raised concerns that accidental release could lead to establishment of overwintering populations outside captivity-a threat accentuated by the average 6 °C increase in shallow-water temperatures predicted by the end of the century. In the present study, Critical and Chronic Thermal Methodology was used to quantify red-bellied pacu thermal tolerance niche requirements. The data suggest that red-belllied pacu are a thermophilic species capable of tolerating low and high chronic temperatures of 16.5 °C and 35 °C, respectively. Critical thermal minimum and maximum temperatures of fish acclimated near their chronic limits are 10.3 and 44.4 °C. Red-bellied pacu aquaculture in the United States is concentrated in subtropical Florida regions that encourage rapid growth and reproduction, but carry an increased risk of establishing reproducing populations in local freshwater systems. The thermal niche data show that the risk of bioinvasion can be reduced or eliminated by adopting an approach whereby aquaculture potential is integrated with environmental temperature constraints.

Why decadal to century timescale palaeoclimate data are needed to explain present-day patterns of biological diversity and change

The current distribution of species, environmental conditions and their interactions represent only one snapshot of a planet that is continuously changing, in part due to human influences. To distinguish human impacts from natural factors, the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, since the Last Glacial Maximum, are often used to determine whether patterns of diversity today are artefacts of past climate change. In the absence of high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions, this is generally done by assuming that past climate change occurred at a linear pace between widely spaced (usually, ≥1,000 years) climate snapshots. We show here that this is a flawed assumption because regional climates have changed significantly across decades and centuries during glacial-interglacial cycles, likely causing rapid regional replacement of biota. We demonstrate how recent atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the climate of the past 21,000 years can provide credible estimates of the details of climate change on decadal to centennial timescales, showing that these details differ radically from what might be inferred from longer timescale information. High-temporal resolution information can provide more meaningful estimates of the magnitude and pace of climate shifts, the location and timing of drivers of physiological stress, and the extent of novel climates. They also produce new opportunities to directly investigate whether short-term climate variability is more important in shaping biodiversity patterns rather than gradual changes in long-term climatic means. Together, these more accurate measures of past climate instability are likely to bring about a better understanding of the role of palaeoclimatic change and variability in shaping current macroecological patterns in many regions of the world.

Biogeographic constraints to marine conservation in a changing climate

The siting of protected areas to achieve management and conservation objectives draws heavily on biogeographic concepts of the spatial distribution and connectivity of species. However, the marine protected area (MPA) literature rarely acknowledges how biogeographic theories underpin MPA and MPA network design. We review which theories from biogeography have been incorporated into marine spatial planning and which relevant concepts have yet to be translated to inform the next generation of design principles. This biogeographic perspective will only become more relevant as climate change amplifies these spatial and temporal dynamics, and as species begin to shift in and out of existing MPAs. The scale of climate velocities predicted for the 21st century dwarfs all but the largest MPAs currently in place, raising the possibility that in coming decades many MPAs will no longer contain the species or assemblages they were established to protect. We present a number of design elements that could improve the success of MPAs and MPA networks in light of biogeographic processes and climate change. Biogeographically informed MPA networks of the future may resemble the habitat corridors currently being considered for many terrestrial regions.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.

Potentially dangerous consequences for biodiversity of solar geoengineering implementation and termination

Solar geoengineering is receiving increased policy attention as a potential tool to offset climate warming. While climate responses to geoengineering have been studied in detail, the potential biodiversity consequences are largely unknown. To avoid extinction, species must either adapt or move to track shifting climates. Here, we assess the effects of the rapid implementation, continuation and sudden termination of geoengineering on climate velocities-the speeds and directions that species would need to move to track changes in climate. Compared to a moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5), rapid geoengineering implementation reduces temperature velocities towards zero in terrestrial biodiversity hotspots. In contrast, sudden termination increases both ocean and land temperature velocities to unprecedented speeds (global medians >10 km yr^-1) that are more than double the temperature velocities for recent and future climate change in global biodiversity hotspots. Furthermore, as climate velocities more than double in speed, rapid climate fragmentation occurs in biomes such as temperate grasslands and forests where temperature and precipitation velocity vectors diverge spatially by >90°. Rapid geoengineering termination would significantly increase the threats to biodiversity from climate change.

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species' ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible-that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem

We have little empirical evidence of how large-scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large-scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change.

Analysis of ecological thresholds in a temperate forest undergoing dieback

Positive feedbacks in drivers of degradation can cause threshold responses in natural ecosystems. Though threshold responses have received much attention in studies of aquatic ecosystems, they have been neglected in terrestrial systems, such as forests, where the long time-scales required for monitoring have impeded research. In this study we explored the role of positive feedbacks in a temperate forest that has been monitored for 50 years and is undergoing dieback, largely as a result of death of the canopy dominant species (Fagus sylvatica, beech). Statistical analyses showed strong non-linear losses in basal area for some plots, while others showed relatively gradual change. Beech seedling density was positively related to canopy openness, but a similar relationship was not observed for saplings, suggesting a feedback whereby mortality in areas with high canopy openness was elevated. We combined this observation with empirical data on size- and growth-mediated mortality of trees to produce an individual-based model of forest dynamics. We used this model to simulate changes in the structure of the forest over 100 years under scenarios with different juvenile and mature mortality probabilities, as well as a positive feedback between seedling and mature tree mortality. This model produced declines in forest basal area when critical juvenile and mature mortality probabilities were exceeded. Feedbacks in juvenile mortality caused a greater reduction in basal area relative to scenarios with no feedback. Non-linear, concave declines of basal area occurred only when mature tree mortality was 3–5 times higher than rates observed in the field. Our results indicate that the longevity of trees may help to buffer forests against environmental change and that the maintenance of old, large trees may aid the resilience of forest stands. In addition, our work suggests that dieback of forests may be avoidable providing pressures on mature and juvenile trees do not pass critical thresholds.

The origin and evolution of coral species richness in a marine biodiversity hotspot

The Coral Triangle (CT) region of the Indo-Pacific realm harbors an extraordinary number of species, with richness decreasing away from this biodiversity hotspot. Despite multiple competing hypotheses, the dynamics underlying this regional diversity pattern remain poorly understood. Here, we use a time-calibrated evolutionary tree of living reef coral species, their current geographic ranges, and model-based estimates of regional rates of speciation, extinction, and geographic range shifts to show that origination rates within the CT are lower than in surrounding regions, a result inconsistent with the long-standing center of origin hypothesis. Furthermore, endemism of coral species in the CT is low, and the CT endemics are older than relatives found outside this region. Overall, our model results suggest that the high diversity of reef corals in the CT is largely due to range expansions into this region of species that evolved elsewhere. These findings strongly support the notion that geographic range shifts play a critical role in generating species diversity gradients. They also show that preserving the processes that gave rise to the striking diversity of corals in the CT requires protecting not just reefs within the hotspot, but also those in the surrounding areas.

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world.

Subtidal Benthic Invertebrates Shifting Northward Along the US Atlantic Coast

Numerous marine and terrestrial species have shifted their ranges poleward in response to warming from global climate change. However, few studies have examined range shifts of subtidal benthic communities in estuarine and nearshore waters. This study examined 20 years (1990-2010) of occurrence and abundance data of soft-bottom, benthic invertebrates along the Atlantic coast of the USA. Data from two biogeographic provinces (Carolinian and Virginian), which spanned 15° of latitude from mid-Florida to Cape Cod, were extracted from a national coastal assessment program. Mean water temperatures increased significantly during the study period, bottom water by 1.6 °C and surface water by 1.7 °C. Of 25 species with significant changes in centers of abundance (out of the 30 most prevalent), 18 (60%) shifted northward and 7 (23%) shifted southward. Species that shifted north moved an average distance of 181 km, in contrast with 65 km for species that shifted south. The southern limits of 22 species showed significant northward shifts; because there was little change in northern limits, this resulted in an average 25% range contraction. Community composition changed during the study period, most notably in southern latitudes. Five Carolinian species surmounted their northerly biogeographic boundary. Consequences of these range shifts include changes in benthic community structure and function, which have strong implications for ecosystem functioning and services including changes in fisheries dependent upon benthic prey.

Transcriptomic response to thermal and salinity stress in introduced and native sympatric Palaemon caridean shrimps

Organisms develop local adaptations to cope with spatially and temporally variable environments such as estuarine habitats, where abiotic parameters such as salinity and temperature fluctuate continuously. Studying the regulation of gene expression in a variable environment allows us to understand the underlying molecular mechanisms of these adaptations and the relative roles of the genetic and plastic response. The transcriptomes of the European native Palaemon longirostris (PL) and the introduced P. macrodactylus (PM) shrimps are described and compared after an experiment simulating summer conditions in the Guadalquivir Estuary, Spain. Specimens, collected in the Guadalquivir Estuary, were maintained at a temperature and salinity of 20 °C and 5 ppt for the control, and 30 °C and 15 ppt for the stress treatment. A large amount of differential gene expression was observed: 16,013 and 2,594 for PL and PM respectively. Functionally annotated unigenes revealed some differences, with PL seemingly having to face stronger physiological stress than PM. Thus, PM seems to have greater resistance than PL under conditions of high temperature and salinity. These results constitute a step forward in the understanding of the underlying molecular mechanisms of genetic adaptation of native invertebrates, and alien taxa that have successfully invaded estuaries in temperate regions around the world.

Thermal limits to the geographic distributions of shallow-water marine species

Temperature profoundly affects species' geographic ranges, but the extent to which it limits contemporary range edges has been difficult to assess from laboratory experiments of thermal tolerance. The persistence of populations depends on temperature-mediated outcomes of ecological and demographic processes across all stages of a species' life history, as well as any adaptation to local temperature regimes. We assessed the relationships between sea temperature and observed distributional ranges for 1,790 shallow-water marine species from 10 animal classes and found remarkable consistencies in trends in realized thermal limits among taxa and ocean basins, as well as general agreement with previous laboratory findings. Realized thermal niches increase from the Equator towards cold-temperate locations, despite an opposite trend in geographic range size. Species' cool distribution limits are best predicted by the magnitude of seasonality within their range, while a relatively firm thermal barrier exists on the equatorward range edge for temperate species. Our findings of consistencies in realized thermal limits indicate potential limits to adaptation among common marine species and highlight the value of realized thermal niches for predicting species' distributional dynamics in warming seas.

Effects of El Niño-driven changes in wind patterns on North Pacific albatrosses

Changes to patterns of wind and ocean currents are tightly linked to climate change and have important implications for cost of travel and energy budgets in marine vertebrates. We evaluated how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-driven wind patterns affected breeding Laysan and black-footed albatross across a decade of study. Owing to latitudinal variation in wind patterns, wind speed differed between habitat used during incubation and brooding; during La Niña conditions, wind speeds were lower in incubating Laysan (though not black-footed) albatross habitat, but higher in habitats used by brooding albatrosses. Incubating Laysan albatrosses benefited from increased wind speeds during El Niño conditions, showing increased travel speeds and mass gained during foraging trips. However, brooding albatrosses did not benefit from stronger winds during La Niña conditions, instead experiencing stronger cumulative headwinds and a smaller proportion of trips in tailwinds. Increased travel costs during brooding may contribute to the lower reproductive success observed in La Niña conditions. Furthermore, benefits of stronger winds in incubating habitat may explain the higher reproductive success of Laysan albatross during El Niño conditions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering habitat accessibility and cost of travel when evaluating the impacts of climate-driven habitat change on marine predators.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Cumulative stress restricts niche filling potential of habitat-forming kelps in a future climate

Climate change is driving range contractions and local population extinctions across the globe. When this affects ecosystem engineers the vacant niches left behind are likely to alter the wider ecosystem unless a similar species can fulfil them.

Here, we explore the stress physiology of two coexisting kelps undergoing opposing range shifts in the Northeast Atlantic and discuss what differences in stress physiology may mean for future niche filling.

We used chlorophyll florescence (F_v/F_m) and differentiation of the heat shock response (HSR) to determine the capacity of the expanding kelp, Laminaria ochroleuca, to move into the higher shore position of the retreating kelp, Laminaria digitata. We applied both single and consecutive exposures to immersed and emersed high and low temperature treatments, replicating low tide exposures experienced in summer and winter.

No interspecific differences in HSR were observed which was surprising given the species’ different biogeographic distributions. However, chlorophyll florescence revealed clear differences between species with L. ochroleuca better equipped to tolerate high immersed temperatures but showed little capacity to tolerate frosts or high emersion temperatures.

Many patterns observed were only apparent after consecutive exposures. Such cumulative effects have largely been overlooked in tolerance experiments on intertidal organisms despite being more representative of the stress experienced in natural habitats. We therefore suggest future experiments incorporate consecutive stress into their design.

Climate change is predicted to result in fewer ground frosts and increased summer temperatures. Therefore, L. ochroleuca may be released from its summer cold limit in winter but still be prevented from moving up the shore due to desiccation in the summer. Laminaria ochroleuca will, however, likely be able to move into tidal pools. Therefore, only partial niche filling by L. ochroleuca will be possible in this system as climate change advances.

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Decadal-scale variation in diet forecasts persistently poor breeding under ocean warming in a tropical seabird

Climate change effects on population dynamics of natural populations are well documented at higher latitudes, where relatively rapid warming illuminates cause-effect relationships, but not in the tropics and especially the marine tropics, where warming has been slow. Here we forecast the indirect effect of ocean warming on a top predator, Nazca boobies in the equatorial Galápagos Islands, where rising water temperature is expected to exceed the upper thermal tolerance of a key prey item in the future, severely reducing its availability within the boobies' foraging envelope. From 1983 to 1997 boobies ate mostly sardines, a densely aggregated, highly nutritious food. From 1997 until the present, flying fish, a lower quality food, replaced sardines. Breeding success under the poor diet fell dramatically, causing the population growth rate to fall below 1, indicating a shrinking population. Population growth may not recover: rapid future warming is predicted around Galápagos, usually exceeding the upper lethal temperature and maximum spawning temperature of sardines within 100 years, displacing them permanently from the boobies' island-constrained foraging range. This provides rare evidence of the effect of ocean warming on a tropical marine vertebrate.

Decadal trends in Red Sea maximum surface temperature

Ocean warming is a major consequence of climate change, with the surface of the ocean having warmed by 0.11 °C decade^-1 over the last 50 years and is estimated to continue to warm by an additional 0.6 - 2.0 °C before the end of the century¹. However, there is considerable variability in the rates experienced by different ocean regions, so understanding regional trends is important to inform on possible stresses for marine organisms, particularly in warm seas where organisms may be already operating in the high end of their thermal tolerance. Although the Red Sea is one of the warmest ecosystems on earth, its historical warming trends and thermal evolution remain largely understudied. We characterized the Red Sea's thermal regimes at the basin scale, with a focus on the spatial distribution and changes over time of sea surface temperature maxima, using remotely sensed sea surface temperature data from 1982 - 2015. The overall rate of warming for the Red Sea is 0.17 ± 0.07 °C decade^-1, while the northern Red Sea is warming between 0.40 and 0.45 °C decade^-1, all exceeding the global rate. Our findings show that the Red Sea is fast warming, which may in the future challenge its organisms and communities.