Epigenetics and the environment: emerging patterns and implications

Revisiting the Role of Genetic Variation in Adaptation

AbstractEvolutionary biologists have thought about the role of genetic variation during adaptation for a very long time-before we understood the organization of the genetic code, the provenance of genetic variation, and how such variation influenced the phenotypes on which natural selection acts. Half a century after the discovery of the structure of DNA and the unraveling of the genetic code, we have a rich understanding of these problems and the means to both delve deeper and widen our perspective across organisms and natural populations. The 2022 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists highlighted examples of recent insights into the role of genetic variation in adaptive processes, which are compiled in this special section. The work was conducted in different parts of the world, included theoretical and empirical studies with diverse organisms, and addressed distinct aspects of how genetic variation influences adaptation. In our introductory article to the special section, we discuss some important recent insights about the generation and maintenance of genetic variation, its impacts on phenotype and fitness, its fate in natural populations, and its role in driving adaptation. By placing the special section articles in the broader context of recent developments, we hope that this overview will also serve as a useful introduction to the field.

Contrasting whole-genome and reduced representation sequencing for population demographic and adaptive inference: an alpine mammal case study

Genomes capture the adaptive and demographic history of a species, but the choice of sequencing strategy and sample size can impact such inferences. We compared whole genome and reduced representation sequencing approaches to study the population demographic and adaptive signals of the North American mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). We applied the restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) approach to 254 individuals and whole genome resequencing (WGS) approach to 35 individuals across the species range at mid-level coverage (9X) and to 5 individuals at high coverage (30X). We used ANGSD to estimate the genotype likelihoods and estimated the effective population size (Ne), population structure, and explicitly modelled the demographic history with δaδi and MSMC2. The data sets were overall concordant in supporting a glacial induced vicariance and extremely low Ne in mountain goats. We evaluated a set of climatic variables and geographic location as predictors of genetic diversity using redundancy analysis. A moderate proportion of total variance (36% for WGS and 21% for RADseq data sets) was explained by geography and climate variables; both data sets support a large impact of drift and some degree of local adaptation. The empirical similarities of WGS and RADseq presented herein reassuringly suggest that both approaches will recover large demographic and adaptive signals in a population; however, WGS offers several advantages over RADseq, such as inferring adaptive processes and calculating runs-of-homozygosity estimates. Considering the predicted climate-induced changes in alpine environments and the genetically depauperate mountain goat, the long-term adaptive capabilities of this enigmatic species are questionable.

The Contribution of Mutation to Variation in Temperature-Dependent Sprint Speed in Zebrafish, Danio rerio

AbstractThe contribution of new mutations to phenotypic variation and the consequences of this variation for individual fitness are fundamental concepts for understanding genetic variation and adaptation. Here, we investigated how mutation influenced variation in a complex trait in zebrafish, Danio rerio. Typical of many ecologically relevant traits in ectotherms, swimming speed in fish is temperature dependent, with evidence of adaptive evolution of thermal performance. We chemically induced novel germline point mutations in males and measured sprint speed in their sons at six temperatures (between 16°C and 34°C). Heterozygous mutational effects on speed were strongly positively correlated among temperatures, resulting in statistical support for only a single axis of mutational variation, reflecting temperature-independent variation in speed (faster-slower mode). These results suggest pleiotropic effects on speed across different temperatures; however, spurious correlations arise via linkage or heterogeneity in mutation number when mutations have consistent directional effects on each trait. Here, mutation did not change mean speed, indicating no directional bias in mutational effects. The results contribute to emerging evidence that mutations may predominantly have synergistic cross-environment effects, in contrast to conditionally neutral or antagonistic effects that underpin thermal adaptation. We discuss several aspects of experimental design that may affect resolution of mutations with nonsynergistic effects.

FREQ-Seq2: a method for precise high-throughput combinatorial quantification of allele frequencies

The accurate determination of allele frequencies is crucially important across a wide range of problems in genetics, such as developing population genetic models, making inferences from genome-wide association studies, determining genetic risk for diseases, as well as other scientific and medical applications. Furthermore, understanding how allele frequencies change over time in populations is central to ascertaining their evolutionary dynamics. We present a precise, efficient, and economical method (FREQ-Seq2) for quantifying the relative frequencies of different alleles at loci of interest in mixed population samples. Through the creative use of paired barcode sequences, we exponentially increased the throughput of the original FREQ-Seq method from 48 to 2,304 samples. FREQ-Seq2 can be targeted to specific genomic regions of interest, which are amplified using universal barcoded adapters to generate Illumina sequencing libraries. Our enhanced method, available as a kit along with open-source software for analyzing sequenced libraries, enables the detection and removal of errors that are undetectable in the original FREQ-Seq method as well as other conventional methods for allele frequency quantification. Finally, we validated the performance of our sequencing-based approach with a highly multiplexed set of control samples as well as a competitive evolution experiment in Escherichia coli and compare the latter to estimates derived from manual colony counting. Our analyses demonstrate that FREQ-Seq2 is flexible, inexpensive, and produces large amounts of data with low error, low noise, and desirable statistical properties. In summary, FREQ-Seq2 is a powerful method for quantifying allele frequency that provides a versatile approach for profiling mixed populations.

Optimization of long-lasting insecticidal bed nets for resistance management: a modelling study and user-friendly app

BACKGROUND

Up until the present, pyrethroid-treated bed nets have been a key tool for vector control in the fight against malaria. A global system that sets standards and facilitates procurement has successfully driven down the price of these bed nets to enable more of them to be distributed. As a result of their mass rollout, malaria cases have been significantly reduced, but pyrethroid resistance is now widespread. Going forward, new insecticides have been and continue to be developed for use on bed nets, but it is unclear how to best deploy them for maximum impact.

METHODS

Here, an app for the optimization of bed nets based on their insecticide loading concentration and deployment lifespan is presented. Underlying the app are simple models that incorporate the chemical and physical properties of bed nets, and the genetic and ecological properties of resistance evolution in mosquitoes. Where possible, default parameter values are fitted from experimental data. The app numerically searches across a massive number of these simple models with variable loading and lifespan to find their optima under different criteria that constrain the options for vector control.

RESULTS

The app is not intended to provide a definite answer about the best bed net design, but allows for the quantative exploration of trade-offs and constraints under different conditions. Here, results for the deployment of a new insecticide are explored under default parameter values across public health budgets for the purchase of bed nets. Optimization can lead to substantial gains in the average control of the mosquito population, and these gains are comparatively greater with lower budgets. Whilst optimizing a bed net within the constraints of the incentives of the existing system of standards and procurement leads to substantially greater control than not optimizing the bed net, optimizing the bed net without constraints leads to yet substantially greater control. The most important factor in this optimization is coverage, which depends on the price per bed net. With this in mind, it is unsurprising that the optimization for plausible budgets suggests that a pyrethroid would be the preferred partner for a new insecticide under current constraints because it is cost-effective in the balance of being less expensive than the new insecticide but also less effective due to pre-existing resistance. Surprisingly, a pyrethroid is shown to be an effective partner for a new insecticide in this model because of its contribution to resistance management in delaying the onset of resistance to the new insecticide.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the importance of trade-offs in the design of bed nets for vector control. Further, it suggests that there are challenges in the roll-out of bed nets with new insecticides because of the constraints imposed by the global system of standards and procurement, which currently fails to adequately incentivize important considerations in bed net design like resistance management.

Longevity of Fungal Mycelia and Nuclear Quality Checks: a New Hypothesis for the Role of Clamp Connections in Dikaryons

This paper addresses the stability of mycelial growth in fungi and differences between ascomycetes and basidiomycetes. Starting with general evolutionary theories of multicellularity and the role of sex, we then discuss individuality in fungi. Recent research has demonstrated the deleterious consequences of nucleus-level selection in fungal mycelia, favoring cheaters with a nucleus-level benefit during spore formation but a negative effect on mycelium-level fitness. Cheaters appear to generally be loss-of-fusion (LOF) mutants, with a higher propensity to form aerial hyphae developing into asexual spores. Since LOF mutants rely on heterokaryosis with wild-type nuclei, we argue that regular single-spore bottlenecks can efficiently select against such cheater mutants. We then zoom in on ecological differences between ascomycetes being typically fast-growing but short-lived with frequent asexual-spore bottlenecks and basidiomycetes being generally slow-growing but long-lived and usually without asexual-spore bottlenecks. We argue that these life history differences have coevolved with stricter nuclear quality checks in basidiomycetes. Specifically, we propose a new function for clamp connections, structures formed during the sexual stage in ascomycetes and basidiomycetes but during somatic growth only in basidiomycete dikaryons. During dikaryon cell division, the two haploid nuclei temporarily enter a monokaryotic phase, by alternatingly entering a retrograde-growing clamp cell, which subsequently fuses with the subapical cell to recover the dikaryotic cell. We hypothesize that clamp connections act as screening devices for nuclear quality, with both nuclei continuously testing each other for fusion ability, a test that LOF mutants will fail. By linking differences in longevity of the mycelial phase to ecology and stringency of nuclear quality checks, we propose that mycelia have a constant and low lifetime cheating risk, irrespective of their size and longevity.

Inclusive fitness forces of selection in an age-structured population

Hamilton's force of selection acting against age-specific mortality is constant and maximal prior to the age of first reproduction, before declining to zero at the age of last reproduction. The force of selection acting on age-specific reproduction declines monotonically from birth in a growing or stationary population. Central to these results is the assumption that individuals do not interact with one another. This assumption is violated in social organisms, where an individual's survival and/or reproduction may shape the inclusive fitness of other group members. Yet, it remains unclear how the forces of selection might be modified when inclusive fitness, rather than population growth rate, is considered the appropriate metric for fitness. Here, we derive such inclusive fitness forces of selection, and show that selection on age-specific survival is not always constant before maturity, and can remain above zero in post-reproductive age classes. We also show how the force of selection on age-specific reproduction does not always decline monotonically from birth, but instead depends on the balance of costs and benefits of increasing reproduction to both direct and indirect fitness. Our theoretical framework provides an opportunity to expand our understanding of senescence across social species.

Kobayashi T. Population dynamics models for various forms of adaptation

Adaptability to changing environments is one of the universal characteristics of living organisms. Because individual modes of adaptation are diverse, a unified understanding of these diverse modes is essential to comprehend adaptation. Adaptations can be categorized from at least two perspectives with respect to information. One is the passivity and activity of adaptation and the other is the type of information transmission. In Darwinian natural selection, organisms are selected among randomly generated traits under which individual organisms are passive in the sense that they do not process any environmental information. On the other hand, organisms can also adapt by sensing their environment and changing their traits. This is an active adaptation in that it makes use of environmental information. In terms of information transfer, adaptation through phenotypic heterogeneity, such as bacterial bet-hedging, is intragenerational in which traits are not passed on to the next generation. In contrast, adaptation through genetic diversity is intergenerational. The theory of population dynamics enables us to unify these various modes of adaptations and their properties can be analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively using techniques from quantitative genetics and information thermodynamics. In addition, such methods can be applied to situations where organisms can learn from past experiences and pass them on from generation to generation. In this work, we introduce the unified theory of biological adaptation based on population dynamics and show its potential applications to evaluate the fitness value of information and to analyze experimental lineage tree data. Finally, we discuss future perspectives for its development. This review article is an extended version of the Japanese article in SEIBUTSU BUTSURI Vol. 57, p. 287-290 (2017).

Strategy evolution on dynamic networks

Models of strategy evolution on static networks help us understand how population structure can promote the spread of traits like cooperation. One key mechanism is the formation of altruistic spatial clusters, where neighbors of a cooperative individual are likely to reciprocate, which protects prosocial traits from exploitation. However, most real-world interactions are ephemeral and subject to exogenous restructuring, so that social networks change over time. Strategic behavior on dynamic networks is difficult to study, and much less is known about the resulting evolutionary dynamics. Here we provide an analytical treatment of cooperation on dynamic networks, allowing for arbitrary spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We show that transitions among a large class of network structures can favor the spread of cooperation, even if each individual social network would inhibit cooperation when static. Furthermore, we show that spatial heterogeneity tends to inhibit cooperation, whereas temporal heterogeneity tends to promote it. Dynamic networks can have profound effects on the evolution of prosocial traits, even when individuals have no agency over network structures.

Microbes are potential key players in the evolution of life histories and aging in Caenorhabditis elegans

Microbes can have profound effects on host fitness and health and the appearance of late-onset diseases. Host-microbe interactions thus represent a major environmental context for healthy aging of the host and might also mediate trade-offs between life-history traits in the evolution of host senescence. Here, we have used the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans to study how host-microbe interactions may modulate the evolution of life histories and aging. We first characterized the effects of two non-pathogenic and one pathogenic Escherichia coli strains, together with the pathogenic Serratia marcescens DB11 strain, on population growth rates and survival of C. elegans from five different genetic backgrounds. We then focused on an outbred C. elegans population, to understand if microbe-specific effects on the reproductive schedule and in traits such as developmental rate and survival were also expressed in the presence of males and standing genetic variation, which could be relevant for the evolution of C. elegans and other nematode species in nature. Our results show that host-microbe interactions have a substantial host-genotype-dependent impact on the reproductive aging and survival of the nematode host. Although both pathogenic bacteria reduced host survival in comparison with benign strains, they differed in how they affected other host traits. Host fertility and population growth rate were affected by S. marcescens DB11 only during early adulthood, whereas this occurred at later ages with the pathogenic E. coli IAI1. In both cases, these effects were largely dependent on the host genotypes. Given such microbe-specific genotypic differences in host life history, we predict that the evolution of reproductive schedules and senescence might be critically contingent on host-microbe interactions in nature.

Temperature-driven gene expression evolution in natural and laboratory populations highlights the crucial role of correlated fitness effects for polygenic adaptation

The influence of pleiotropy on adaptive responses is a highly controversial topic, with limited empirical evidence available. Recognizing the pivotal role of the correlation of fitness effects, we designed an experiment to compare the adaptive gene expression evolution of natural and experimental populations. To test this, we studied the evolution of gene expression in response to temperature in two Drosophila species on a natural temperature cline in North America and replicated populations evolving in hot- and cold-temperature regimes. If fitness effects of affected traits are independent, pleiotropy is expected to constrain the adaptive response in both settings, laboratory and natural populations. However, when fitness effects are more correlated in natural populations, adaptation in the wild will be facilitated by pleiotropy. Remarkably, we find evidence for both predicted effects. In both settings, genes with strong pleiotropic effects contribute less to adaptation, indicating that the majority of fitness effects are not correlated. In addition, we discovered that genes involved in adaptation exhibited more pleiotropic effects in natural populations. We propose that this pattern can be explained by a stronger correlation of fitness effects in nature. More insights into the dual role of pleiotropy will be crucial for the understanding of polygenic adaptation.

The estimation of reproductive values from pedigrees

Quantifying fitness is important to understand adaptive evolution. Reproductive values are useful for making fitness comparisons involving different categories of individuals, like males and females. By definition, the reproductive value of a category is the expected per capita contribution of the members of that category to the gene pool of future generations. Life history theory reveals how reproductive values can be determined via the estimation of life-history parameters, but this requires an adequate life-history model and intricate algebraic calculations. Recently, an alternative pedigree-based method has become popular, which estimates the expected genetic contribution of individuals to future generations by tracking their descendants down the pedigree. This method is versatile and intuitively appealing, but it is unknown if the method produces estimates of reproductive values that are accurate and precise. To investigate this, we implement various life-history scenarios (for which the "true" reproductive values can be calculated) in individual-based simulations, use the simulation data to estimate reproductive values with the pedigree method, and compare the results with the true target values. We show that the pedigree-based estimation of reproductive values is either biased (in the short term) or imprecise (in the long term). This holds even for simple life histories and under idealized conditions. We conclude that the pedigree method is not a good substitute for the traditional method to quantify reproductive values.

Selection and the direction of phenotypic evolution

Predicting adaptive phenotypic evolution depends on invariable selection gradients and on the stability of the genetic covariances between the component traits of the multivariate phenotype. We describe the evolution of six traits of locomotion behavior and body size in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans for 50 generations of adaptation to a novel environment. We show that the direction of adaptive multivariate phenotypic evolution can be predicted from the ancestral selection differentials, particularly when the traits were measured in the new environment. Interestingly, the evolution of individual traits does not always occur in the direction of selection, nor are trait responses to selection always homogeneous among replicate populations. These observations are explained because the phenotypic dimension with most of the ancestral standing genetic variation only partially aligns with the phenotypic dimension under directional selection. These findings validate selection theory and suggest that the direction of multivariate adaptive phenotypic evolution is predictable for tens of generations.

Inferring the distributions of fitness effects and proportions of strongly deleterious mutations

The distribution of fitness effects is a key property in evolutionary genetics as it has implications for several evolutionary phenomena including the evolution of sex and mating systems, the rate of adaptive evolution, and the prevalence of deleterious mutations. Despite the distribution of fitness effects being extensively studied, the effects of strongly deleterious mutations are difficult to infer since such mutations are unlikely to be present in a sample of haplotypes, so genetic data may contain very little information about them. Recent work has attempted to correct for this issue by expanding the classic gamma-distributed model to explicitly account for strongly deleterious mutations. Here, we use simulations to investigate one such method, adding a parameter (plth) to capture the proportion of strongly deleterious mutations. We show that plth can improve the model fit when applied to individual species but underestimates the true proportion of strongly deleterious mutations. The parameter can also artificially maximize the likelihood when used to jointly infer a distribution of fitness effects from multiple species. As plth and related parameters are used in current inference algorithms, our results are relevant with respect to avoiding model artifacts and improving future tools for inferring the distribution of fitness effects.

Seasonal differences in the timing of flight between the invasive winter moth and native Bruce spanworm promotes reproductive isolation

The European winter moth, Operophtera brumata L. (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), was accidentally introduced to North America on at least 4 separate occasions, where it has been hybridizing with the native Bruce spanworm, O. bruceata Hulst, at rates up to 10% per year. Both species are known to respond to the same sex pheromones and to produce viable offspring, but whether they differ in the seasonal timing of their mating flights is unknown. Therefore, we collected adult male moths weekly along 2 transects in the northeastern United States and genotyped individuals using polymorphic microsatellite markers as males of these 2 species cannot be differentiated morphologically. Along each transect, we then estimated the cumulative proportions (i.e., the number of individuals out of the total collected) of each species on each calendar day. Our results indicate that there are significant differences between the species regarding their seasonal timing of flight, and these allochronic differences likely are acting to promote reproductive isolation between these 2 species. Lastly, our results suggest that the later flight observed by winter moth compared to Bruce spanworm may be limiting its inland spread in the northeastern United States because of increased exposure to extreme winter events.

Genetic Architecture of Flowering Time Differs Between Populations With Contrasting Demographic and Selective Histories

Understanding the evolutionary factors that impact the genetic architecture of traits is a central goal of evolutionary genetics. Here, we investigate how quantitative trait variation accumulated over time in populations that colonized a novel environment. We compare the genetic architecture of flowering time in Arabidopsis populations from the drought-prone Cape Verde Islands and their closest outgroup population from North Africa. We find that trait polygenicity is severely reduced in the island populations compared to the continental North African population. Further, trait architectures and reconstructed allelic histories best fit a model of strong directional selection in the islands in accord with a Fisher-Orr adaptive walk. Consistent with this, we find that large-effect variants that disrupt major flowering time genes (FRI and FLC) arose first, followed by smaller effect variants, including ATX2 L125F, which is associated with a 4-day reduction in flowering time. The most recently arising flowering time-associated loci are not known to be directly involved in flowering time, consistent with an omnigenic signature developing as the population approaches its trait optimum. Surprisingly, we find no effect in the natural population of EDI-Cvi-0 (CRY2 V367M), an allele for which an effect was previously validated by introgression into a Eurasian line. Instead, our results suggest the previously observed effect of the EDI-Cvi-0 allele on flowering time likely depends on genetic background, due to an epistatic interaction. Altogether, our results provide an empirical example of the effects demographic history and selection has on trait architecture.

Ecological genetics of local adaptation in Arabidopsis: An 8-year field experiment

There is considerable evidence for local adaptation in nature, yet important questions remain regarding its genetic basis. How many loci are involved? What are their effect sizes? What is the relative importance of conditional neutrality versus genetic trade-offs? Here we address these questions in the self-pollinating, annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana. We used 400 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) derived from two locally adapted populations in Italy and Sweden, grew the RILs and parents at the parental locations, and mapped quantitative trait loci (QTL) for mean fitness (fruits/seedling planted). We previously published results from the first 3 years of the study, and here add five additional years, providing a unique opportunity to assess how temporal variation in selection might affect QTL detection and classification. We found 10 adaptive and one maladaptive QTL in Italy, and six adaptive and four maladaptive QTL in Sweden. The discovery of maladaptive QTL at both sites suggests that even locally adapted populations are not always at their genotypic optimum. Mean effect sizes for adaptive QTL, 0.97 and 0.55 fruits in Italy and Sweden, respectively, were large relative to the mean fitness of the RILs (approximately 8 fruits/seedling planted at both sites). Both genetic trade-offs (four cases) and conditional neutrality (seven cases) contribute to local adaptation in this system. The 8-year dataset provided greater power to detect QTL and to estimate their locations compared to our previous 3-year study, identifying one new genetic trade-off and resolving one genetic trade-off into two conditionally adaptive QTL.

The coevolutionary dynamics of cryptic female choice

In contrast to sexual selection on traits that affect interactions between the sexes before mating, little theoretical research has focused on the coevolution of postmating traits via cryptic female choice (when females bias fertilization toward specific males). We used simulation models to ask (a) whether and, if so, how nondirectional cryptic female choice (female-by-male interactions in fertilization success) causes deviations from models that focus exclusively on male-mediated postmating processes, and (b) how the risk of sperm competition, the strength of cryptic female choice, and tradeoffs between sperm number and sperm traits interact to influence the coevolutionary dynamics between cryptic female choice and sperm traits. We found that incorporating cryptic female choice can result in males investing much less in their ejaculates than predicted by models with sperm competition only. We also found that cryptic female choice resulted in the evolution of genetic correlations between cryptic female choice and sperm traits, even when the strength of cryptic female choice was weak, and the risk of sperm competition was low. This suggests that cryptic female choice may be important even in systems with low multiple mating. These genetic correlations increased with the risk of sperm competition and as the strength of cryptic female choice increased. When the strength of cryptic female choice and risk of sperm competition was high, extreme codivergence of sperm traits and cryptic female choice preference occurred even when the sperm trait traded off with sperm number. We also found that male traits lagged behind the evolution of female traits; this lag decreased with increasing strength of cryptic female choice and risk of sperm competition. Overall, our results suggest that cryptic female choice deserves more attention theoretically and may be driving trait evolution in ways just beginning to be explored.

Long-range linkage effects in adapting sexual populations

In sexual populations, closely-situated genes have linked evolutionary fates, while genes spaced far in genome are commonly thought to evolve independently due to recombination. In the case where evolution depends essentially on supply of new mutations, this assumption has been confirmed by mathematical modeling. Here I examine it in the case of pre-existing genetic variation, where mutation is not important. A haploid population with [Formula: see text] genomes, [Formula: see text] loci, a fixed selection coefficient, and a small initial frequency of beneficial alleles [Formula: see text] is simulated by a Monte-Carlo algorithm. When the number of loci, L, is larger than a critical value of [Formula: see text] simulation demonstrates a host of linkage effects that decrease neither with the distance between loci nor the number of recombination crossovers. Due to clonal interference, the beneficial alleles become extinct at a fraction of loci [Formula: see text]. Due to a genetic background effect, the substitution rate varies broadly between loci, with the fastest value exceeding the one-locus limit by the factor of [Formula: see text] Thus, the far-situated parts of a long genome in a sexual population do not evolve as independent blocks. A potential link between these findings and the emergence of new Variants of Concern of SARS-CoV-2 is discussed.

Favored Races in the Struggle for Life: Racism and the Speciation Concept

Evolutionary speciation, whether it be cladistic or phyletic, has always been associated with race concepts. Biological races are conceived as definable stages of divergence from a common ancestor. However, the species concept in Western science began within a special creationist framework. The sixteenth century European voyages of discovery resulted in special creationist schemes explaining the origin of the new peoples encountered. These were designed to provide the moral justification for their colonization and enslavement. By the seventeenth century, European naturalists were beginning to seriously question the meaning of the variation within the animals and plants they observed within the context of God's role in creation. By the middle of the nineteenth century, "the species question" was the most important intellectual enterprise within biology. Here I discuss how notions of speciation influenced and were influenced by conceptions of race within Homo sapiens.

Temporal Pattern of the Emergence of a Mutant Virus Escaping Cross-Immunity and Stochastic Extinction Within a Host

A high mutation rate of the RNA virus results in the emergence of novel mutants that may escape the immunity activated by the original (wild-type) strain. However, many of them go extinct because of the stochasticity due to the small initial number of infected cells. In a previous paper, we studied the probability of escaping stochastic extinction when the novel mutant has a faster rate of infection and when it is resistant to a drug that suppresses the wild-type virus. In this study, we examine the effect of escaping the immune reaction of the host. Based on a continuous-time branching process with time-dependent rates, we conclude the chance for a mutant strain to be established [Formula: see text] decreases with time [Formula: see text] since the wild-type infection when the mutant is produced. The number of novel mutants that can escape extinction risk has a peak soon after the wild-type infection. The number of novel escape mutations produced per patient in the early phase of host infection is small both for very strong and very weak immune responses, and it attains its maximum value when immune activity is of an intermediate strength.

Indirect effects shape species fitness in coevolved mutualistic networks

Ecological interactions are one of the main forces that sustain Earth's biodiversity. A major challenge for studies of ecology and evolution is to determine how these interactions affect the fitness of species when we expand from studying isolated, pairwise interactions to include networks of interacting species^1-4. In networks, chains of effects caused by a range of species have an indirect effect on other species they do not interact with directly, potentially affecting the fitness outcomes of a variety of ecological interactions (such as mutualism)^5-7. Here we apply analytical techniques and numerical simulations to 186 empirical mutualistic networks and show how both direct and indirect effects alter the fitness of species coevolving in these networks. Although the fitness of species usually increased with the number of mutualistic partners, most of the fitness variation across species was driven by indirect effects. We found that these indirect effects prevent coevolving species from adapting to their mutualistic partners and to other sources of selection pressure in the environment, thereby decreasing their fitness. Such decreases are distributed in a predictable way within networks: peripheral species receive more indirect effects and experience higher reductions in fitness than central species. This topological effect was also evident when we analysed an empirical study of an invasion of pollination networks by honeybees. As honeybees became integrated as a central species within networks, they increased the contribution of indirect effects on several other species, reducing their fitness. Our study shows how and why indirect effects can govern the adaptive landscape of species-rich mutualistic assemblages.

Pleiotropy drives evolutionary repair of the responsiveness of polarized cell growth to environmental cues

The ability of cells to translate different extracellular cues into different intracellular responses is vital for their survival in unpredictable environments. In Saccharomyces cerevisiae, cell polarity is modulated in response to environmental signals which allows cells to adopt varying morphologies in different external conditions. The responsiveness of cell polarity to extracellular cues depends on the integration of the molecular network that regulates polarity establishment with networks that signal environmental changes. The coupling of molecular networks often leads to pleiotropic interactions that can make it difficult to determine whether the ability to respond to external signals emerges as an evolutionary response to environmental challenges or as a result of pleiotropic interactions between traits. Here, we study how the propensity of the polarity network of S. cerevisiae to evolve toward a state that is responsive to extracellular cues depends on the complexity of the environment. We show that the deletion of two genes, BEM3 and NRP1, disrupts the ability of the polarity network to respond to cues that signal the onset of the diauxic shift. By combining experimental evolution with whole-genome sequencing, we find that the restoration of the responsiveness to these cues correlates with mutations in genes involved in the sphingolipid synthesis pathway and that these mutations frequently settle in evolving populations irrespective of the complexity of the selective environment. We conclude that pleiotropic interactions make a significant contribution to the evolution of networks that are responsive to extracellular cues.

Recurrent mutation in the ancestry of a rare variant

Recurrent mutation produces multiple copies of the same allele which may be co-segregating in a population. Yet, most analyses of allele-frequency or site-frequency spectra assume that all observed copies of an allele trace back to a single mutation. We develop a sampling theory for the number of latent mutations in the ancestry of a rare variant, specifically a variant observed in relatively small count in a large sample. Our results follow from the statistical independence of low-count mutations, which we show to hold for the standard neutral coalescent or diffusion model of population genetics as well as for more general coalescent trees. For populations of constant size, these counts are distributed like the number of alleles in the Ewens sampling formula. We develop a Poisson sampling model for populations of varying size and illustrate it using new results for site-frequency spectra in an exponentially growing population. We apply our model to a large data set of human SNPs and use it to explain dramatic differences in site-frequency spectra across the range of mutation rates in the human genome.

Evolutionary history of an Alpine Archaeognath (Machilis pallida): Insights from different variant

Reconstruction of species histories is a central aspect of evolutionary biology. Patterns of genetic variation within and among populations can be leveraged to elucidate evolutionary processes and demographic histories. However, interpreting genetic signatures and unraveling the contributing processes can be challenging, in particular for non-model organisms with complex reproductive modes and genome organization. One way forward is the combined consideration of patterns revealed by different molecular markers (nuclear vs. mitochondrial) and types of variants (common vs. rare) that differ in their age, mode, and rate of evolution. Here, we applied this approach to RNAseq data generated for Machilis pallida (Archaeognatha), an Alpine jumping bristletail considered parthenogenetic and triploid. We generated de novo transcriptome and mitochondrial assemblies to obtain high-density data to investigate patterns of mitochondrial and common and rare nuclear variation in 17 M. pallida individuals sampled from all known populations. We find that the different variant types capture distinct aspects of the evolutionary history and discuss the observed patterns in the context of parthenogenesis, polyploidy, and survival during glaciation. This study highlights the potential of different variant types to gain insights into evolutionary scenarios even from challenging but often available data and the suitability of M. pallida and the genus Machilis as a study system for the evolution of sexual strategies and polyploidization during environmental change. We also emphasize the need for further research which will be stimulated and facilitated by these newly generated resources and insights.

Individual-based analyses reveal effects of behavioral and demographic variables associated with multi-annual reproductive success of male and female lake sturgeon

Quantifying effects of individual attributes and population demographic characteristics that affect inter- and intrasexual interactions and adult reproductive success, and the spatial and temporal contexts in which they are expressed is important to effective species management. Multi-year individual-based analyses using genetically determined parentage allowed the examination of variables associated with the reproductive success of male and female lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) in the well-studied population in Black Lake, Michigan, USA. Spawning lake sturgeon (a total of 599 individuals where many were captured more than once based on 1024 total captures) and larvae (N = 3436) were genotyped during each of seven consecutive years (2001-2007). Factors associated with individual reproductive success differed between sexes and varied among spawning groups within a year and among years depending on spawning date (higher reproductive success earlier in the season for females) and spawning locations (higher reproductive success in upstream spawning zones for females). Female reproductive success increased nonlinearly with increasing body size. Male reproductive success increased with increasing residence time in spawning areas and, to a modest degree, with increasing body size in a nonlinear fashion. Fixed effects of repeatability in spawn timing and location across years led to consistently higher or lower reproductive success for females. Results identified factors, including time spent at spawning areas by males and intersexual encounters and mate number, that contributed to higher interindividual variance in reproductive success and affected population levels of recruitment, the degree of subpopulation genetic structure (lack of isolation by time), and effective population size.

Warning Coloration, Body Size, and the Evolution of Gregarious Behavior in Butterfly Larvae

AbstractMany species gain antipredator benefits by combining gregarious behavior with warning coloration, yet there is debate over which trait evolves first and which is the secondary adaptive enhancement. Body size can also influence how predators receive aposematic signals and potentially constrain the evolution of gregarious behavior. To our knowledge, the causative links between the evolution of gregariousness, aposematism, and larger body sizes have not been fully resolved. Here, using the most recently resolved butterfly phylogeny and an extensive new dataset of larval traits, we reveal the evolutionary interactions between important traits linked to larval gregariousness. We show that larval gregariousness has arisen many times across butterflies, and aposematism is a likely prerequisite for gregariousness to evolve. We also find that body size may be an important factor for determining the coloration of solitary, but not gregarious, larvae. Additionally, by exposing artificial larvae to wild avian predation, we show that undefended, cryptic larvae are heavily predated when aggregated but benefit from solitariness, whereas the reverse is true for aposematic prey. Our data reinforce the importance of aposematism for gregarious larval survival while identifying new questions about the roles of body size and toxicity in the evolution of grouping behavior.

Reduced within-population quantitative genetic variation is associated with climate harshness in maritime pine

How evolutionary forces interact to maintain genetic variation within populations has been a matter of extensive theoretical debates. While mutation and exogenous gene flow increase genetic variation, stabilizing selection and genetic drift are expected to deplete it. To date, levels of genetic variation observed in natural populations are hard to predict without accounting for other processes, such as balancing selection in heterogeneous environments. We aimed to empirically test three hypotheses: (i) admixed populations have higher quantitative genetic variation due to introgression from other gene pools, (ii) quantitative genetic variation is lower in populations from harsher environments (i.e., experiencing stronger selection), and (iii) quantitative genetic variation is higher in populations from heterogeneous environments. Using growth, phenological and functional trait data from three clonal common gardens and 33 populations (522 clones) of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), we estimated the association between the population-specific total genetic variances (i.e., among-clone variances) for these traits and ten population-specific indices related to admixture levels (estimated based on 5165 SNPs), environmental temporal and spatial heterogeneity and climate harshness. Populations experiencing colder winters showed consistently lower genetic variation for early height growth (a fitness-related trait in forest trees) in the three common gardens. Within-population quantitative genetic variation was not associated with environmental heterogeneity or population admixture for any trait. Our results provide empirical support for the potential role of natural selection in reducing genetic variation for early height growth within populations, which indirectly gives insight into the adaptive potential of populations to changing environments.

The roles of sexual selection and sexual conflict in shaping patterns of genome and transcriptome variation

Sexual dimorphism is one of the most prevalent, and often the most extreme, examples of phenotypic variation within species, and arises primarily from genomic variation that is shared between females and males. Many sexual dimorphisms arise through sex differences in gene expression, and sex-biased expression is one way that a single, shared genome can generate multiple, distinct phenotypes. Although many sexual dimorphisms are expected to result from sexual selection, and many studies have invoked the possible role of sexual selection to explain sex-specific traits, the role of sexual selection in the evolution of sexually dimorphic gene expression remains difficult to differentiate from other forms of sex-specific selection. In this Review, we propose a holistic framework for the study of sex-specific selection and transcriptome evolution. We advocate for a comparative approach, across tissues, developmental stages and species, which incorporates an understanding of the molecular mechanisms, including genomic variation and structure, governing gene expression. Such an approach is expected to yield substantial insights into the evolution of genetic variation and have important applications in a variety of fields, including ecology, evolution and behaviour.

Adaptive Response to Gillnets Bycatch in a North Sardinia Mediterranean Shag (Gulosus aristotelis desmarestii) Population

Mediterranean Shag (Gulosus aristotelis desmarestii) is a seabird endemic to the Mediterranean and Black Seas, recently included in the IUCN list of threatened Species. Most of the reproductive colonies are hosted in Sardinia and surrounding islets. Bycatch in fishing nets is one of the most significant threats for this population. Our work aimed to assess alterations in the sex ratio caused by bycatch and to study the adaptive response of the population to a skewed adult sex ratio. The sex ratio of Mediterranean Shags found drowned in the gillnets near the colonies and that of the nestlings of the Corcelli (northeast Sardinia) colony was determined using the sex-linked polymorphism of the gene Chromobox-Helicase-DNA-binding 1. The data of the shags found drowned in gillnets evidenced a high mortality rate (83.3%; p < 0.001) and a larger size of males (35% heavier than females, p < 0.05) compared to females, supporting the theory that heavier individuals are able to forage at great depths. With 64.8% of the nestlings being male, the sex ratio of nestlings was statistically different from parity (p < 0.05). Furthermore, it was related to the brood size. In one- and two-chick broods, 73% and 70% of nestlings, respectively, were males, while in three-chick broods, only 33% were males. Our data identify the higher rate of male shags drowned in gillnets as a factor causing an alteration of the sex ratio in the Mediterranean Shag population. According to the Sex Allocation Theory, an adaptive adjustment of sex made by adult females restores the Mendelian sex ratio in the population.

Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: Proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. For example, when standardized test scores in education become targets, teachers may start "teaching to the test," leading to breakdown of the relationship between the measure - test performance - and the underlying goal - quality education. Similar phenomena have been named and described across a broad range of contexts, such as economics, academia, machine learning, and ecology. Yet it remains unclear whether these phenomena bear only superficial similarities, or if they derive from some fundamental unifying mechanism. Here, we propose such a unifying mechanism, which we label proxy failure. We first review illustrative examples and their labels, such as the "cobra effect," "Goodhart's law," and "Campbell's law." Second, we identify central prerequisites and constraints of proxy failure, noting that it is often only a partial failure or divergence. We argue that whenever incentivization or selection is based on an imperfect proxy measure of the underlying goal, a pressure arises that tends to make the proxy a worse approximation of the goal. Third, we develop this perspective for three concrete contexts, namely neuroscience, economics, and ecology, highlighting similarities and differences. Fourth, we outline consequences of proxy failure, suggesting it is key to understanding the structure and evolution of goal-oriented systems. Our account draws on a broad range of disciplines, but we can only scratch the surface within each. We thus hope the present account elicits a collaborative enterprise, entailing both critical discussion as well as extensions in contexts we have missed.

Pregnancy bias toward boys or girls: The Japan Environment and Children's Study

The sex of the conceived child is a significant concern for parents. To verify whether there women have pregnancy bias toward boys or girls, we investigated whether the history of continuous same-sex pregnancy was associated with the subsequent child's sex. We prospectively analyzed data from the Japan Environment and Children's Study, a birth cohort study. We included all cases of singleton live births (n = 98 412). Women with pregnancy due to infertility treatment were excluded (n = 6255); Similarly, women with a history of miscarriage, artificial abortion, stillbirth, and multiple pregnancies, and those with missing data on the sex of the previous child were excluded. Altogether, 62 718 women were included. For the first live birth, a male-biased sex ratio of 1.055 was observed. Further, no significant difference was found in the sex ratio of the conceived child between women with one boy and those with one girl previously. However, when there were more than two children previously, the subsequently conceived child's male/female sex ratio was significantly higher among boy-only mothers than among girl-only mothers. The results indicated that several pregnant women are biased toward conceiving either boys or girls.

Evolutionary implications of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination for the future design of vaccination strategies

Once the first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine became available, mass vaccination was the main pillar of the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was very effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths. Here, we discuss the possibility that mass vaccination might accelerate SARS-CoV-2 evolution in antibody-binding regions compared to natural infection at the population level. Using the evidence of strong genetic variation in antibody-binding regions and taking advantage of the similarity between the envelope proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, we assume that immune selection pressure acting on these regions of the two viruses is similar. We discuss the consequences of this assumption for SARS-CoV-2 evolution in light of mathematical models developed previously for influenza. We further outline the implications of this phenomenon, if our assumptions are confirmed, for the future design of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies.

Why put all your eggs in one basket? Evolutionary perspectives on the origins of monogenic reproduction

Sexual reproduction is ubiquitous in eukaryotes, but the mechanisms by which sex is determined are diverse and undergo rapid turnovers in short evolutionary timescales. Usually, an embryo's sex is fated at the moment of fertilisation, but in rare instances it is the maternal genotype that determines the offspring's sex. These systems are often characterised by mothers producing single-sex broods, a phenomenon known as monogeny. Monogenic reproduction is well documented in Hymenoptera (ants, bees and wasps), where it is associated with a eusocial lifestyle. However, it is also known to occur in three families in Diptera (true flies): Sciaridae, Cecidomyiidae and Calliphoridae. Here we review current knowledge of monogenic reproduction in these dipteran clades. We discuss how this strange reproductive strategy might evolve, and we consider the potential contributions of inbreeding, sex ratio distorters, and polygenic control of the sex ratio. Finally, we provide suggestions on future work to elucidate the origins of this unusual reproductive strategy. We propose that studying these systems will contribute to our understanding of the evolution and turnover of sex determination systems.

Sexual antagonism evolves when autosomes influence offspring sex ratio

Sex allocation theory generally assumes maternal control of offspring sex and makes few predictions for populations evolving under paternal control. Using population genetic simulations, we show that maternal and paternal control of the sex ratio lead to different equilibrium sex ratios in structured populations. Sex ratios evolved under paternal control are more female biased. This effect is dependent on the population subdivision; fewer founding individuals leads to both more biased sex ratios and a greater difference between the paternal and maternal equilibria. In addition, sexual antagonism evolves in simulations with both maternally- and paternally-acting loci. Maternally-acting loci continuously accumulate ever more female-biasing effects as male-biasing effects accumulate at paternally-acting loci. The difference in evolved sex-ratio equilibria and the evolution of sexual antagonism can be largely explained by differences in the between-group variance of maternal and paternal effects in the founding generation. These theoretical results apply to any system with biparental autosomal influence over offspring sex, opening up an exciting new line of questioning.

Femora from an exceptionally large population of coeval ornithomimosaurs yield evidence of sexual dimorphism in extinct theropod dinosaurs

Sexual dimorphism is challenging to detect among fossils due to a lack of statistical representativeness. The Angeac-Charente Lagerstätte (France) represents a remarkable 'snapshot' from a Berriasian (Early Cretaceous) ecosystem and offers a unique opportunity to study intraspecific variation among a herd of at least 61 coeval ornithomimosaurs. Herein, we investigated the hindlimb variation across the best-preserved specimens from the herd through 3D Geometric Morphometrics and Gaussian Mixture Modeling. Our results based on complete and fragmented femora evidenced a dimorphism characterized by variations in the shaft curvature and the distal epiphysis width. Since the same features vary between sexes among modern avian dinosaurs, crocodilians, and more distant amniotes, we attributed this bimodal variation to sexual dimorphism based on the extant phylogenetic bracketing approach. Documenting sexual dimorphism in fossil dinosaurs allows a better characterization and accounting of intraspecific variations, which is particularly relevant to address ongoing taxonomical and ecological questions relative to dinosaur evolution.

Optimal density of bacterial cells

A substantial fraction of the bacterial cytosol is occupied by catalysts and their substrates. While a higher volume density of catalysts and substrates might boost biochemical fluxes, the resulting molecular crowding can slow down diffusion, perturb the reactions' Gibbs free energies, and reduce the catalytic efficiency of proteins. Due to these tradeoffs, dry mass density likely possesses an optimum that facilitates maximal cellular growth and that is interdependent on the cytosolic molecule size distribution. Here, we analyze the balanced growth of a model cell, accounting systematically for crowding effects on reaction kinetics. Its optimal cytosolic volume occupancy depends on the nutrient-dependent resource allocation into large ribosomal vs. small metabolic macromolecules, reflecting a tradeoff between the saturation of metabolic enzymes, favoring larger occupancies with higher encounter rates, and the inhibition of the ribosomes, favoring lower occupancies with unhindered diffusion of tRNAs. Our predictions across growth rates are quantitatively consistent with the experimentally observed reduction in volume occupancy on rich media compared to minimal media in E. coli. Strong deviations from optimal cytosolic occupancy only lead to minute reductions in growth rate, which are nevertheless evolutionarily relevant due to large bacterial population sizes. In sum, cytosolic density variation in bacterial cells appears to be consistent with an optimality principle of cellular efficiency.

Nestling sex ratio is unaffected by individual and population traits in the griffon vulture

Variation in offspring sex ratios is a central topic in animal demography and population dynamics. Most studies have focused on bird species with marked sexual dimorphism and multiple-nestling broods, where the offspring sex ratio is often biased due to different individual or environmental variables. However, biases in offspring sex ratios have been far less investigated in monomorphic and single-egg laying species, and few studies have evaluated long-term and large-scale variations in the sex ratio of nestling vultures. Here, we explore individual and environmental factors potentially affecting the secondary sex ratio of the monomorphic griffon vulture Gyps fulvus. We used information collected at three breeding nuclei from central Spain over a 30-year period (1990-2020) to analyse the effects of nestling age, parental age, breeding phenology, conspecific density, population reproductive parameters, and spatial and temporal variability on nestling sex. Sex ratio did not differ from parity either at the population or the nuclei level. No significant between-year differences were detected, even under highly changing conditions of food availability associated with the mad-cow crisis. We found that tree nesting breeders tend to have more sons than daughters, but as this nesting behavior is rare and we consequently have a small sample size, this issue would require additional examination. Whereas further research is needed to assess the potential effect of breeder identity on nestling sex ratio, this study contributes to understanding the basic ecology and population dynamics of Griffon Vultures, a long-lived species with deferred maturity and low fecundity, whose minor deviations in the offspring sex ratio might imply major changes at the population level.

Regulatory logic of endogenous RNAi in silencing de novo genomic conflicts

Although the biological utilities of endogenous RNAi (endo-RNAi) have been largely elusive, recent studies reveal its critical role in the non-model fruitfly Drosophila simulans to suppress selfish genes, whose unchecked activities can severely impair spermatogenesis. In particular, hairpin RNA (hpRNA) loci generate endo-siRNAs that suppress evolutionary novel, X-linked, meiotic drive loci. The consequences of deleting even a single hpRNA (Nmy) in males are profound, as such individuals are nearly incapable of siring male progeny. Here, comparative genomic analyses of D. simulans and D. melanogaster mutants of the core RNAi factor dcr-2 reveal a substantially expanded network of recently-emerged hpRNA-target interactions in the former species. The de novo hpRNA regulatory network in D. simulans provides insight into molecular strategies that underlie hpRNA emergence and their potential roles in sex chromosome conflict. In particular, our data support the existence of ongoing rapid evolution of Nmy/Dox-related networks, and recurrent targeting of testis HMG-box loci by hpRNAs. Importantly, the impact of the endo-RNAi network on gene expression flips the convention for regulatory networks, since we observe strong derepression of targets of the youngest hpRNAs, but only mild effects on the targets of the oldest hpRNAs. These data suggest that endo-RNAi are especially critical during incipient stages of intrinsic sex chromosome conflicts, and that continual cycles of distortion and resolution may contribute to speciation.

Essential and recurrent roles for hairpin RNAs in silencing de novo sex chromosome conflict in Drosophila simulans

Meiotic drive loci distort the normally equal segregation of alleles, which benefits their own transmission even in the face of severe fitness costs to their host organism. However, relatively little is known about the molecular identity of meiotic drivers, their strategies of action, and mechanisms that can suppress their activity. Here, we present data from the fruitfly Drosophila simulans that address these questions. We show that a family of de novo, protamine-derived X-linked selfish genes (the Dox gene family) is silenced by a pair of newly emerged hairpin RNA (hpRNA) small interfering RNA (siRNA)-class loci, Nmy and Tmy. In the w[XD1] genetic background, knockout of nmy derepresses Dox and MDox in testes and depletes male progeny, whereas knockout of tmy causes misexpression of PDox genes and renders males sterile. Importantly, genetic interactions between nmy and tmy mutant alleles reveal that Tmy also specifically maintains male progeny for normal sex ratio. We show the Dox loci are functionally polymorphic within D. simulans, such that both nmy-associated sex ratio bias and tmy-associated sterility can be rescued by wild-type X chromosomes bearing natural deletions in different Dox family genes. Finally, using tagged transgenes of Dox and PDox2, we provide the first experimental evidence Dox family genes encode proteins that are strongly derepressed in cognate hpRNA mutants. Altogether, these studies support a model in which protamine-derived drivers and hpRNA suppressors drive repeated cycles of sex chromosome conflict and resolution that shape genome evolution and the genetic control of male gametogenesis.

The effect of mutational robustness on the evolvability of multicellular organisms and eukaryotic cells

Canalization involves mutational robustness, the lack of phenotypic change as a result of genetic mutations. Given the large divergence in phenotype across species, understanding the relationship between high robustness and evolvability has been of interest to both theorists and experimentalists. Although canalization was originally proposed in the context of multicellular organisms, the effect of multicellularity and other classes of hierarchical organization on evolvability has not been considered by theoreticians. We address this issue using a Boolean population model with explicit representation of an environment in which individuals with explicit genotype and a hierarchical phenotype representing multicellularity evolve. Robustness is described by a single real number between zero and one which emerges from the genotype-phenotype map. We find that high robustness is favoured in constant environments, and lower robustness is favoured after environmental change. Multicellularity and hierarchical organization severely constrain robustness: peak evolvability occurs at an absolute level of robustness of about 0.99 compared with values of about 0.5 in a classical neutral network model. These constraints result in a sharp peak of evolvability in which the maximum is set by the fact that the fixation of adaptive mutations becomes more improbable as robustness decreases. When robustness is put under genetic control, robustness levels leading to maximum evolvability are selected for, but maximal relative fitness appears to require recombination.

Is cooperation favored by horizontal gene transfer?

It has been hypothesized that horizontal gene transfer on plasmids can facilitate the evolution of cooperation, by allowing genes to jump between bacteria, and hence increase genetic relatedness at the cooperative loci. However, we show theoretically that horizontal gene transfer only appreciably increases relatedness when plasmids are rare, where there are many plasmid-free cells available to infect (many opportunities for horizontal gene transfer). In contrast, when plasmids are common, there are few opportunities for horizontal gene transfer, meaning relatedness is not appreciably increased, and so cooperation is not favored. Plasmids, therefore, evolve to be rare and cooperative, or common and noncooperative, meaning plasmid frequency and cooperativeness are never simultaneously high. The overall level of plasmid-mediated cooperation, given by the product of plasmid frequency and cooperativeness, is therefore consistently negligible or low.

Haemonchus contortus Adopt Isolate-Specific Life History Strategies to Optimize Fitness and Overcome Obstacles in Their Environment: Experimental Evidence

Gastrointestinal nematodes (GIN) use flexible life history strategies to maintain their fitness under environmental challenges. Costs incurred by a challenge to one life trait can be recouped by increasing the expression of subsequent life traits throughout their life cycle. Anticipating how parasites respond to the challenge of control interventions is critical for the long-term sustainability of the practice and to further ensure that the parasites withstand favourable adaptive responses. There is currently limited information on whether distinct populations of a GIN species respond to the same environmental challenge in a consistent manner, with similar alterations to their life history strategies or comparable fitness outcomes. This study compared the life history traits and experimental fitness of three distinct Haemonchus contortus isolates exposed to environmental challenges at both the parasitic (i.e., passage through resistant or susceptible sheep) and free-living (i.e., exposure to diverse climatic conditions) life stages. The key findings show that H. contortus maintain their fitness under challenge with isolate-specific alterations to their life history strategies. Further, partial exploration of the H. contortus isolates transcriptomes using cDNA-AFLP methods confirmed disparate expression profiles between them. These results bring fresh insights into our understanding of the non-genetic adaptive processes of GIN that may hinder the efficacy of parasite control strategies.

Interaction between mutation type and gene pleiotropy drives parallel evolution in the laboratory

What causes evolution to be repeatable is a fundamental question in evolutionary biology. Pleiotropy, i.e. the effect of an allele on multiple traits, is thought to enhance repeatability by constraining the number of available beneficial mutations. Additionally, pleiotropy may promote repeatability by allowing large fitness benefits of single mutations via adaptive combinations of phenotypic effects. Yet, this latter evolutionary potential may be reaped solely by specific types of mutations able to realize optimal combinations of phenotypic effects while avoiding the costs of pleiotropy. Here, we address the interaction of gene pleiotropy and mutation type on evolutionary repeatability in a meta-analysis of experimental evolution studies with Escherichia coli. We hypothesize that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are principally able to yield large fitness benefits by targeting highly pleiotropic genes, whereas indels and structural variants (SVs) provide smaller benefits and are restricted to genes with lower pleiotropy. By using gene connectivity as proxy for pleiotropy, we show that non-disruptive SNPs in highly pleiotropic genes yield the largest fitness benefits, since they contribute more to parallel evolution, especially in large populations, than inactivating SNPs, indels and SVs. Our findings underscore the importance of considering genetic architecture together with mutation type for understanding evolutionary repeatability. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Mutation bias and the predictability of evolution

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Evolutionary repeatability of emergent properties of ecological communities

Most species belong to ecological communities where their interactions give rise to emergent community-level properties, such as diversity and productivity. Understanding and predicting how these properties change over time has been a major goal in ecology, with important practical implications for sustainability and human health. Less attention has been paid to the fact that community-level properties can also change because member species evolve. Yet, our ability to predict long-term eco-evolutionary dynamics hinges on how repeatably community-level properties change as a result of species evolution. Here, we review studies of evolution of both natural and experimental communities and make the case that community-level properties at least sometimes evolve repeatably. We discuss challenges faced in investigations of evolutionary repeatability. In particular, only a handful of studies enable us to quantify repeatability. We argue that quantifying repeatability at the community level is critical for approaching what we see as three major open questions in the field: (i) Is the observed degree of repeatability surprising? (ii) How is evolutionary repeatability at the community level related to repeatability at the level of traits of member species? (iii) What factors affect repeatability? We outline some theoretical and empirical approaches to addressing these questions. Advances in these directions will not only enrich our basic understanding of evolution and ecology but will also help us predict eco-evolutionary dynamics. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

Recombination smooths the time signal disrupted by latency in within-host HIV phylogenies

Within-host Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolution involves several features that may disrupt standard phylogenetic reconstruction. One important feature is reactivation of latently integrated provirus, which has the potential to disrupt the temporal signal, leading to variation in the branch lengths and apparent evolutionary rates in a tree. Yet, real within-host HIV phylogenies tend to show clear, ladder-like trees structured by the time of sampling. Another important feature is recombination, which violates the fundamental assumption that evolutionary history can be represented by a single bifurcating tree. Thus, recombination complicates the within-host HIV dynamic by mixing genomes and creating evolutionary loop structures that cannot be represented in a bifurcating tree. In this paper, we develop a coalescent-based simulator of within-host HIV evolution that includes latency, recombination, and effective population size dynamics that allows us to study the relationship between the true, complex genealogy of within-host HIV evolution, encoded as an ancestral recombination graph (ARG), and the observed phylogenetic tree. To compare our ARG results to the familiar phylogeny format, we calculate the expected bifurcating tree after decomposing the ARG into all unique site trees, their combined distance matrix, and the overall corresponding bifurcating tree. While latency and recombination separately disrupt the phylogenetic signal, remarkably, we find that recombination recovers the temporal signal of within-host HIV evolution caused by latency by mixing fragments of old, latent genomes into the contemporary population. In effect, recombination averages over extant heterogeneity, whether it stems from mixed time signals or population bottlenecks. Furthermore, we establish that the signals of latency and recombination can be observed in phylogenetic trees despite being an incorrect representation of the true evolutionary history. Using an approximate Bayesian computation method, we develop a set of statistical probes to tune our simulation model to nine longitudinally sampled within-host HIV phylogenies. Because ARGs are exceedingly difficult to infer from real HIV data, our simulation system allows investigating effects of latency, recombination, and population size bottlenecks by matching decomposed ARGs to real data as observed in standard phylogenies.

The influence of immune challenges on the mean and variance in reproductive investment: a meta-analysis of the terminal investment hypothesis

Finding the optimal balance between survival and reproduction is a central puzzle in life-history theory. The terminal investment hypothesis predicts that when individuals encounter a survival threat that compromises future reproductive potential, they will increase immediate reproductive investment to maximise fitness. Despite decades of research on the terminal investment hypothesis, findings remain mixed. We examined the terminal investment hypothesis with a meta-analysis of studies that measured reproductive investment of multicellular iteroparous animals after a non-lethal immune challenge. We had two main aims. The first was to investigate whether individuals, on average, increase reproductive investment in response to an immune threat, as predicted by the terminal investment hypothesis. We also examined whether such responses vary adaptively on factors associated with the amount of reproductive opportunities left (residual reproductive value) in the individuals, as predicted by the terminal investment hypothesis. The second was to provide a quantitative test of a novel prediction based on the dynamic threshold model: that an immune threat increases between-individual variance in reproductive investment. Our results provided some support for our hypotheses. Older individuals, who are expected to have lower residual reproductive values, showed stronger mean terminal investment response than younger individuals. In terms of variance, individuals showed a divergence in responses, leading to an increase in variance. This increase in variance was especially amplified in longer-living species, which was consistent with our prediction that individuals in longer-living species should respond with greater individual variation due to increased phenotypic plasticity. We find little statistical evidence of publication bias. Together, our results highlight the need for a more nuanced view on the terminal investment hypothesis and a greater focus on the factors that drive individual responses.

The long-lasting legacy of reproduction: lifetime reproductive success shapes expected genetic contributions of humans after 10 generations

An individual's lifetime reproductive success (LRS) measures its realized genetic contributions to the next generation, but how well does it predict this over longer periods? Here we use human genealogical data to estimate expected individual genetic contributions (IGC) and quantify the degree to which LRS, relative to other fitness proxies, predicts IGC over longer periods. This allows an identification of the life-history stages that are most important in shaping variation in IGC. We use historical genealogical data from two non-isolated local populations in Switzerland to estimate the stabilized IGC for 2230 individuals approximately 10 generations after they were born. We find that LRS explains 30% less variation in IGC than the best predictor of IGC, the number of grandoffspring. However, albeit less precise than the number of grandoffspring, we show that LRS does provide an unbiased prediction of IGC. Furthermore, it predicts IGC better than lifespan, and accounting for offspring survival to adulthood does not improve the explanatory power. Overall, our findings demonstrate the value of human genealogical data to evolutionary biology and suggest that reproduction-more than lifespan or offspring survival-impacts the long-term genetic contributions of historic humans, even in a population with appreciable migration.