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Quantifying the Effect of Different Urban Planning Strategies on Heat Stress for Current and Future Climates in the Agglomeration of The Hague (The Netherlands). ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9090353] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
In the Netherlands, there will be an urgent need for additional housing by the year 2040, which mainly has to be realized within the existing built environment rather than in the spatial extension of cities. In this data-driven study, we investigated the effects of different urban planning strategies on heat stress for the current climate and future climate scenarios (year 2050) for the urban agglomeration of The Hague. Heat stress is here expressed as the number of days exceeding minimum temperatures of 20 °C in a year. Thereto, we applied a diagnostic equation to determine the daily maximum urban heat island based on routine meteorological observations and straightforward urban morphological properties including the sky-view factor and the vegetation fraction. Moreover, we utilized the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute’s (KNMI) climate scenarios to transform present-day meteorological hourly time series into the future time series. The urban planning strategies differ in replacing low- and mid-rise buildings with high-rise buildings (which reduces the sky-view factor), and constructing buildings on green areas (which reduces the vegetation fraction). We found that, in most cases, the vegetation fraction is a more critical parameter than the sky-view factor to minimize the extra heat stress incurred when densifying the neighbourhood. This means that an urban planning strategy consisting of high-rise buildings and preserved green areas is often the best solution. Still, climate change will have a larger impact on heat stress for the year 2050 than the imposed urban densification.
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302
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Oudin Åström D, Ebi KL, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Gasparrini A. Investigating changes in mortality attributable to heat and cold in Stockholm, Sweden. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2018; 62:1777-1780. [PMID: 29748912 PMCID: PMC6132879 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-018-1556-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2018] [Revised: 04/22/2018] [Accepted: 04/25/2018] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Projections of temperature-related mortality rely upon exposure-response relationships using recent data. Analyzing long historical data and trends may extend knowledge of past and present impacts that may provide additional insight and improve future scenarios. We collected daily mean temperatures and daily all-cause mortality for the period 1901-2013 for Stockholm County, Sweden, and calculated the total attributable fraction of mortality due to non-optimal temperatures and quantified the contribution of cold and heat. Total mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures varied between periods and cold consistently had a larger impact on mortality than heat. Cold-related attributable fraction (AF) remained stable over time whereas heat-related AF decreased. AF on cold days remained stable over time, which may indicate that mortality during colder months may not decline as temperatures increase in the future. More research is needed to enhance estimates of burdens related to cold and heat in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Oudin Åström
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Umeå University, 90187, Umeå, Sweden.
| | - Kristie L Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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303
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Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Li S, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Tawatsupa B, Punnasiri K, Overcenco A, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kan H, Osorio S, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Goodman PG, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, Scortichini M, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Seposo X, Kim H, Tobias A, Íñiguez C, Forsberg B, Åström DO, Guo YL, Chen BY, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Dang TN, Van DD, Bell ML, Armstrong B, Ebi KL, Tong S. Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study. PLoS Med 2018; 15:e1002629. [PMID: 30063714 PMCID: PMC6067704 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 127] [Impact Index Per Article: 21.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2018] [Accepted: 06/29/2018] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. METHODS AND FINDINGS We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- * E-mail: (YG); (SL)
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- * E-mail: (YG); (SL)
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
| | - Benjawan Tawatsupa
- Health Impact Assessment Division, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Kornwipa Punnasiri
- Health Impact Assessment Division, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Muang Nonthaburi, Thailand
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Public Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | | | | | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Jouni J. K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R. I. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu, Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | | | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Epidemiology and Environmental Health Joint Research Unit, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Daniel Oudin Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Bing-Yu Chen
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Dung Do Van
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kristie L. Ebi
- Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
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304
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Gao J, Kovats S, Vardoulakis S, Wilkinson P, Woodward A, Li J, Gu S, Liu X, Wu H, Wang J, Song X, Zhai Y, Zhao J, Liu Q. Public health co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: A systematic review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 627:388-402. [PMID: 29426161 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.193] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2017] [Revised: 01/09/2018] [Accepted: 01/19/2018] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Public health co-benefits from curbing climate change can make greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies more attractive and increase their implementation. The purpose of this systematic review is to summarize the evidence of these health co-benefits to improve our understanding of the mitigation measures involved, potential mechanisms, and relevant uncertainties. METHODS A comprehensive search for peer-reviewed studies published in English was conducted using the primary electronic databases. Reference lists from these articles were reviewed and manual searches were performed to supplement relevant studies. The identified records were screened based on inclusion criteria. We extracted data from the final retrieved papers using a pre-designed data extraction form and a quality assessment was conducted. The studies were heterogeneities, so meta-analysis was not possible and instead evidence was synthesized using narrative summaries. RESULTS Thirty-six studies were identified. We identified GHG mitigation strategies in five domains - energy generation, transportation, food and agriculture, households, and industry and economy - which usually, although not always, bring co-benefits for public health. These health gains are likely to be multiplied by comprehensive measures that include more than one sectors. CONCLUSIONS GHG mitigation strategies can bring about substantial and possibly cost-effective public health co-benefits. These findings are highly relevant to policy makers and other stakeholders since they point to the compounding value of taking concerted action against climate change and air pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinghong Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China; National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China
| | - Sari Kovats
- NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Environmental Change and Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1H 9SH London, UK.
| | | | - Paul Wilkinson
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15-17 Tavistock Place, WC1H 9SH London, UK.
| | - Alistair Woodward
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand.
| | - Jing Li
- Changping District Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102200, China
| | - Shaohua Gu
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo, China
| | - Xiaobo Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Haixia Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Jun Wang
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
| | - Xiaoqin Song
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China; National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China
| | - Yunkai Zhai
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China; National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China; Engineering Laboratory of Henan Province for Internet Medical E-commerce and Active Health Services, Zhengzhou 450001, Henan, China.
| | - Jie Zhao
- The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China; National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications, Zhengzhou 450052, Henan, China.
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
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305
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Zhang Y, Yu Y, Peng M, Meng R, Hu K, Yu C. Temporal and seasonal variations of mortality burden associated with hourly temperature variability: A nationwide investigation in England and Wales. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2018; 115:325-333. [PMID: 29626694 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.03.036] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2017] [Revised: 03/24/2018] [Accepted: 03/25/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Sudden temperature change may elevate short-term mortality and remains an important global health threat in the context of climate change. To date, however, little available temperature-mortality evidence has taken into account both intra- and inter-day temperature variability (TV), thus largely limiting the comprehensive understanding of mortality burden due to unstable weather. Moreover, seasonal and temporal patterns in TV-mortality associations were sparsely discussed, nationally and regionally. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess the nationwide association of all-cause mortality with hourly temperature variability (HTV), quantify HTV-attributable mortality, and further explore the temporal and seasonal variations of mortality burden due to HTV in United Kingdom. METHODS Fourteen-year time-series data on temperature and mortality were collected from 10 regions in England and Wales during 1993-2006, totally including 7,573,716 all-cause deaths. HTV was calculated from the standard deviation of hourly temperature records within two neighboring days. A three-stage analytic approach was adopted to assess HTV-associated mortality burden. We first applied a time-series quasi-Poisson regression to estimate region-specific HTV-mortality associations, then pooled these associations at the national level using a multivariate meta-analysis, and finally estimated the HTV-attributable mortality fraction and illustrated its seasonal and temporal variations by conducting season- and period-specific analyses based on time-varying distributed lag models. RESULTS We found strong evidence that large HTV exposure elevated short-term mortality risk in England and Wales, with a pooled estimate of 1.13% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88, 1.39) associated with a 1-°C increase in HTV. During the whole study period, HTV accounted for a national average attributable fraction of 2.52% (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 2.27, 2.76) of the total deaths. This HTV-attributable mortality estimate showed a significant temporal decrease (p < 0.001) from 2.72% (95% eCI: 2.58, 2.87) in 1993-99 to 2.28% (95% eCI: 2.13, 2.43) in 2000-06. Additionally, clear seasonal variations were observed for HTV-attributable mortality burden, with the largest estimate of 3.08% (95% eCI: 2.80, 3.38) in summer, followed by 2.71% (95% eCI: 2.44, 2.98) in spring, 2.40% (95% eCI: 2.16, 2.63) in autumn, and 2.00% (95% eCI: 1.81, 2.20) in winter. CONCLUSIONS Despite clear evidence observed for the reduction, mortality burden caused by temperature variability remained a great public health threat, especially in warm seasons. It highlighted the importance of specific interventions targeted to unstable weather as well as temperature extremes, so as to reduce climate-related mortality burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China.
| | - Yong Yu
- School of Public Health and Management, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan 442000, China
| | - Minjin Peng
- Department of Infection Control, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan 442000, China
| | - Runtang Meng
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Island and Coastal Ecosystems, Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316021, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road, Wuhan 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 8 Donghunan Road, Wuhan 430072, China.
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306
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Projected Changes in Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature under Alternative Climate Scenarios. ATMOSPHERE 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos9050187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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307
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Lee JY, Choi H, Kim H. Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO 2 concentrations: A review. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2018; 114:52-59. [PMID: 29477019 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2018.02.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2017] [Revised: 02/11/2018] [Accepted: 02/11/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jae Young Lee
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
| | - Hayoung Choi
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea
| | - Ho Kim
- Institute of Health and Environment and Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, 1, Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 08826, South Korea.
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308
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Li Y, Ren T, Kinney PL, Joyner A, Zhang W. Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2018; 163:171-185. [PMID: 29448153 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.01.047] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/14/2017] [Revised: 01/10/2018] [Accepted: 01/31/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Li
- Department of Environmental Health, College of Public Health, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA
| | - Ting Ren
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
| | - Patrick L Kinney
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02118, USA
| | - Andrew Joyner
- Department of Geosciences, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, TN 37614, USA
| | - Wei Zhang
- School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China.
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309
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Zhao Q, Li S, Cao W, Liu DL, Qian Q, Ren H, Ding F, Williams G, Huxley R, Zhang W, Guo Y. Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 2018; 126:047010. [PMID: 29681142 PMCID: PMC6071822 DOI: 10.1289/ehp3062] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2017] [Revised: 03/17/2018] [Accepted: 03/22/2018] [Indexed: 05/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. OBJECTIVES We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. METHODS Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. RESULTS During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. CONCLUSION Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Wei Cao
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - De-Li Liu
- New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga, New South Wales, Australia
| | - Quan Qian
- Center for Disease Surveillance and Research, Institute for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Beijing, China
| | - Hongyan Ren
- Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Fan Ding
- Public Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Gail Williams
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Rachel Huxley
- College of Science, Health and Engineering, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Wenyi Zhang
- Center for Disease Surveillance and Research, Institute for Disease Control and Prevention of Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Beijing, China
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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310
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Haines A, Hanson C, Ranganathan J. Planetary Health Watch: integrated monitoring in the Anthropocene epoch. Lancet Planet Health 2018; 2:e141-e143. [PMID: 29615211 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(18)30047-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/02/2018] [Accepted: 02/27/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Andy Haines
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society and Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK.
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311
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Li G, Guo Q, Liu Y, Li Y, Pan X. Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia. Stroke 2018. [DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.117.020042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Guoxing Li
- From the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China (G.L., Q.G., Y.L., X.P.); and Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA (Y.L.)
| | - Qun Guo
- From the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China (G.L., Q.G., Y.L., X.P.); and Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA (Y.L.)
| | - Yang Liu
- From the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China (G.L., Q.G., Y.L., X.P.); and Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA (Y.L.)
| | - Yixue Li
- From the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China (G.L., Q.G., Y.L., X.P.); and Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA (Y.L.)
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- From the Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China (G.L., Q.G., Y.L., X.P.); and Emory University Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, GA (Y.L.)
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312
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Hansen A, Bi P. Climate change adaptation: no one size fits all. Lancet Planet Health 2017; 1:e353-e354. [PMID: 29851645 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(17)30160-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2017] [Accepted: 11/16/2017] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Alana Hansen
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
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