Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet

Technological options for biological fuel ethanol

The current paradigm to produce biotechnological ethanol is to use the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to ferment sugars derived from starch or sugar crops such as maize, sugar cane or sugar beet. Despite its current success, the global impact of this manufacturing model is restricted on the one hand by limits on the availability of these primary raw materials, and on the other hand by the maturity of baker's yeast fermentation technologies. Revisiting the technical, economic, and value chain aspects of the biotechnological ethanol industry points to the need for radical innovation to complement the current manufacturing model. Implementation of lignocellulosic materials is clearly a key enabler to the billion-ton biofuel vision. However, realization of the full market potential of biofuels will be facilitated by the availability of an array of innovative technological options, as the flexibility generated by these alternative processes will not only enable the exploitation of heretofore untapped local market opportunities, but also it will confer to large biorefinery structures numerous opportunities for increased process integration as well as optimum reactivity to logistic and manufacturing challenges. In turn, all these factors will interplay in synergy to contribute in shifting the economic balance in favor of the global implementation of biotechnological ethanol.

Reviving the carbohydrate economy via multi-product lignocellulose biorefineries

Before the industrial revolution, the global economy was largely based on living carbon from plants. Now the economy is mainly dependent on fossil fuels (dead carbon). Biomass is the only sustainable bioresource that can provide sufficient transportation fuels and renewable materials at the same time. Cellulosic ethanol production from less costly and most abundant lignocellulose is confronted with three main obstacles: (1) high processing costs (dollars /gallon of ethanol), (2) huge capital investment (dollars approximately 4-10/gallon of annual ethanol production capacity), and (3) a narrow margin between feedstock and product prices. Both lignocellulose fractionation technology and effective co-utilization of acetic acid, lignin and hemicellulose will be vital to the realization of profitable lignocellulose biorefineries, since co-product revenues would increase the margin up to 6.2-fold, where all purified lignocellulose co-components have higher selling prices (> approximately 1.0/kg) than ethanol ( approximately 0.5/kg of ethanol). Isolation of large amounts of lignocellulose components through lignocellulose fractionation would stimulate R&D in lignin and hemicellulose applications, as well as promote new markets for lignin- and hemicellulose-derivative products. Lignocellulose resource would be sufficient to replace significant fractionations (e.g., 30%) of transportation fuels through liquid biofuels, internal combustion engines in the short term, and would provide 100% transportation fuels by sugar-hydrogen-fuel cell systems in the long term.

Carbon sequestration via wood burial

To mitigate global climate change, a portfolio of strategies will be needed to keep the atmospheric CO2 concentration below a dangerous level. Here a carbon sequestration strategy is proposed in which certain dead or live trees are harvested via collection or selective cutting, then buried in trenches or stowed away in above-ground shelters. The largely anaerobic condition under a sufficiently thick layer of soil will prevent the decomposition of the buried wood. Because a large flux of CO2 is constantly being assimilated into the world's forests via photosynthesis, cutting off its return pathway to the atmosphere forms an effective carbon sink.It is estimated that a sustainable long-term carbon sequestration potential for wood burial is 10 +/- 5 GtC y-1, and currently about 65 GtC is on the world's forest floors in the form of coarse woody debris suitable for burial. The potential is largest in tropical forests (4.2 GtC y-1), followed by temperate (3.7 GtC y-1) and boreal forests (2.1 GtC y-1). Burying wood has other benefits including minimizing CO2 source from deforestation, extending the lifetime of reforestation carbon sink, and reducing fire danger. There are possible environmental impacts such as nutrient lock-up which nevertheless appears manageable, but other concerns and factors will likely set a limit so that only part of the full potential can be realized.Based on data from North American logging industry, the cost for wood burial is estimated to be $14/tCO2($50/tC), lower than the typical cost for power plant CO2 capture with geological storage. The cost for carbon sequestration with wood burial is low because CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by the natural process of photosynthesis at little cost. The technique is low tech, distributed, easy to monitor, safe, and reversible, thus an attractive option for large-scale implementation in a world-wide carbon market.

Electrochemical acceleration of chemical weathering as an energetically feasible approach to mitigating anthropogenic climate change

We describe an approach to CO2 capture and storage from the atmosphere that involves enhancing the solubility of CO2 in the ocean by a process equivalent to the natural silicate weathering reaction. HCl is electrochemically removed from the ocean and neutralized through reaction with silicate rocks. The increase in ocean alkalinity resulting from the removal of HCI causes atmospheric CO2 to dissolve into the ocean where it will be stored primarily as HCO3- without further acidifying the ocean. On timescales of hundreds of years or longer, some of the additional alkalinity will likely lead to precipitation or enhanced preservation of CaCO3, resulting in the permanent storage of the associated carbon, and the return of an equal amount of carbon to the atmosphere. Whereas the natural silicate weathering process is effected primarily by carbonic acid, the engineered process accelerates the weathering kinetics to industrial rates by replacing this weak acid with HCI. In the thermodynamic limit--and with the appropriate silicate rocks--the overall reaction is spontaneous. A range of efficiency scenarios indicates that the process should require 100-400 kJ of work per mol of CO2 captured and stored for relevant timescales. The process can be powered from stranded energy sources too remote to be useful for the direct needs of population centers. It may also be useful on a regional scale for protection of coral reefs from further ocean acidification. Application of this technology may involve neutralizing the alkaline solution that is coproduced with HCI with CO2 from a point source or from the atmosphere prior to being returned to the ocean.

Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions

Agriculture is a source for three primary greenhouse gases (GHGs): CO(2), CH(4), and N(2)O. It can also be a sink for CO(2) through C sequestration into biomass products and soil organic matter. We summarized the literature on GHG emissions and C sequestration, providing a perspective on how agriculture can reduce its GHG burden and how it can help to mitigate GHG emissions through conservation measures. Impacts of agricultural practices and systems on GHG emission are reviewed and potential trade-offs among potential mitigation options are discussed. Conservation practices that help prevent soil erosion, may also sequester soil C and enhance CH(4) consumption. Managing N to match crop needs can reduce N(2)O emission and avoid adverse impacts on water quality. Manipulating animal diet and manure management can reduce CH(4) and N(2)O emission from animal agriculture. All segments of agriculture have management options that can reduce agriculture's environmental footprint.

High-yield hydrogen production from starch and water by a synthetic enzymatic pathway

Background

The future hydrogen economy offers a compelling energy vision, but there are four main obstacles: hydrogen production, storage, and distribution, as well as fuel cells. Hydrogen production from inexpensive abundant renewable biomass can produce cheaper hydrogen, decrease reliance on fossil fuels, and achieve zero net greenhouse gas emissions, but current chemical and biological means suffer from low hydrogen yields and/or severe reaction conditions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here we demonstrate a synthetic enzymatic pathway consisting of 13 enzymes for producing hydrogen from starch and water. The stoichiometric reaction is C₆H₁₀O₅ (l)+7 H₂O (l)→12 H₂ (g)+6 CO₂ (g). The overall process is spontaneous and unidirectional because of a negative Gibbs free energy and separation of the gaseous products with the aqueous reactants.

Conclusions

Enzymatic hydrogen production from starch and water mediated by 13 enzymes occurred at 30°C as expected, and the hydrogen yields were much higher than the theoretical limit (4 H₂/glucose) of anaerobic fermentations.

Significance

The unique features, such as mild reaction conditions (30°C and atmospheric pressure), high hydrogen yields, likely low production costs ($∼2/kg H₂), and a high energy-density carrier starch (14.8 H₂-based mass%), provide great potential for mobile applications. With technology improvements and integration with fuel cells, this technology also solves the challenges associated with hydrogen storage, distribution, and infrastructure in the hydrogen economy.

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Biological solar energy

Through the process of photosynthesis, the energy of sunlight has been harnessed, not only to create the biomass on our planet today, but also the fossil fuels. The overall efficiency of biomass formation, however, is low and despite being a valuable source of energy, it cannot replace fossil fuels on a global scale and provide the huge amount of power needed to sustain the technological aspirations of the world population now and in the future. However, at the heart of the photosynthetic process is the highly efficient chemical reaction of water splitting, leading to the production of hydrogen equivalents and molecular oxygen. This reaction takes place in an enzyme known as photosystem II, and the recent determination of its structure has given strong hints of how nature uses solar energy to generate hydrogen and oxygen from water. This new information provides a blue print for scientists to seriously consider constructing catalysts that mimic the natural system and thus stimulate new technologies to address the energy/CO2 problem that humankind must solve. After all, there is no shortage of water for this non-polluting reaction and the energy content of sunlight falling on our planet well exceeds our needs.

Toward Cost-Effective Solar Energy Use

At present, solar energy conversion technologies face cost and scalability hurdles in the technologies required for a complete energy system. To provide a truly widespread primary energy source, solar energy must be captured, converted, and stored in a cost-effective fashion. New developments in nanotechnology, biotechnology, and the materials and physical sciences may enable step-change approaches to cost-effective, globally scalable systems for solar energy use.

A comprehensive and compact n-heptane oxidation model derived using chemical lumping

A detailed reaction mechanism for n-heptane oxidation has been compiled and subsequently simplified. The model is based on a kinetic model for C1-C4 fuel oxidation of Hoyermann et al. [Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2004, 6, 3824] and a detailed mechanism for n-heptane oxidation developed by Curran et al. [Combust. Flame, 1998, 114, 149]. The generated mechanism is kept compact by limiting the application of the low temperature oxidation pathways to the fuel molecule. The first reaction steps and the complex low temperature paths in the oxidation process have been simplified and reorganized by linear chemical lumping. The reported procedure allows a decrease in number of species and reactions with only a minor loss of model accuracy. The simplified model is of very compact size and gives an advantageous starting point for further model reduction. By this chemically lumped general mechanism without further adjustments the large set of experimental data for the high and low temperature oxidation (ignition delay times, species concentration profiles, heat release and engine pressure profiles, flame speeds and flame structure data) for conditions ranging from very low to high temperatures (550-2300 K), very lean to extremely fuel rich (0.22 < phi < 3) mixtures and pressures between 1 and 42 bar is consistently described providing a basis for reliable predictions for future applications, (i) building reaction mechanisms for similar but chemically more complex fuels (e.g. iso-octane, n-decane,...) and (ii) calculating complex flow fields ("fluid dynamics") after further simplification with advanced reduction tools.

Feasibility of cooling the Earth with a cloud of small spacecraft near the inner Lagrange point (L1)

If it were to become apparent that dangerous changes in global climate were inevitable, despite greenhouse gas controls, active methods to cool the Earth on an emergency basis might be desirable. The concept considered here is to block 1.8% of the solar flux with a space sunshade orbited near the inner Lagrange point (L1), in-line between the Earth and sun. Following the work of J. Early [Early, JT (1989) J Br Interplanet Soc 42:567-569], transparent material would be used to deflect the sunlight, rather than to absorb it, to minimize the shift in balance out from L1 caused by radiation pressure. Three advances aimed at practical implementation are presented. First is an optical design for a very thin refractive screen with low reflectivity, leading to a total sunshade mass of approximately 20 million tons. Second is a concept aimed at reducing transportation cost to 50 dollars/kg by using electromagnetic acceleration to escape Earth's gravity, followed by ion propulsion. Third is an implementation of the sunshade as a cloud of many spacecraft, autonomously stabilized by modulating solar radiation pressure. These meter-sized "flyers" would be assembled completely before launch, avoiding any need for construction or unfolding in space. They would weigh a gram each, be launched in stacks of 800,000, and remain for a projected lifetime of 50 years within a 100,000-km-long cloud. The concept builds on existing technologies. It seems feasible that it could be developed and deployed in approximately 25 years at a cost of a few trillion dollars, <0.5% of world gross domestic product (GDP) over that time.

A Combined Mitigation/Geoengineering Approach to Climate Stabilization

Projected anthropogenic warming and increases in CO2 concentration present a twofold threat, both from climate changes and from CO2 directly through increasing the acidity of the oceans. Future climate change may be reduced through mitigation (reductions in greenhouse gas emissions) or through geoengineering. Most geoengineering approaches, however, do not address the problem of increasing ocean acidity. A combined mitigation/geoengineering strategy could remove this deficiency. Here we consider the deliberate injection of sulfate aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. This action could substantially offset future warming and provide additional time to reduce human dependence on fossil fuels and stabilize CO2 concentrations cost-effectively at an acceptable level.

Impact ionization can explain carrier multiplication in PbSe quantum dots

The efficiency of conventional solar cells is limited because the excess energy of absorbed photons converts to heat instead of producing electron-hole pairs. Recently, efficient carrier multiplication has been observed in semiconductor quantum dots. In this process, a single, high-energy photon generates multiple electron-hole pairs. Rather exotic mechanisms have been proposed to explain the efficiency of carrier multiplication in PbSe quantum dots. Using atomistic pseudopotential calculations, we show here that the more conventional impact ionization mechanism, whereby a photogenerated electron-hole pair decays into a biexciton in a process driven by Coulomb interactions between the carriers, can explain both the rate (<<1 ps) and the energy threshold ( approximately 2.2 times the band gap) of carrier multiplication, without the need to invoke alternative mechanisms.

The pathological history of weather and climate modification: Three cycles of promise and hype

The checkered history of weather and climate modification exhibits a modicum of promise and an excess of hype. This paper examines two completed historical cycles: the first, dating from 1839, involved western proprietary rainmaking or ““pluviculture;”” the second, from 1946 to 1978 involved ““cloud seeding,”” commercial rainmaking, and the attempted weaponization of the clouds. Recently, discussion of weather and climate modification has returned to the science-policy agenda, framed as seemingly inevitable responses to killer storms and global warming. The long history of deceptive and delusional attempts to ““control”” nature, however, raised serious questions about the rationality of these options.

An Ab Initio Periodic Study of Acidic Chabazite as a Candidate for Dihydrogen Storage

A theoretical B3LYP study, adopting a polarized double-zeta quality Gaussian basis set, was performed to characterize acidic chabazite by using the periodic CRYSTAL03 program. Different Si/Al loadings (1/1, 3/1, 5/1, and 11/1) were considered, and for each of them the most stable aluminum distribution and location of the acidic proton, needed as charge balancer, were identified. With the optimal structures, the energy of formation and the anharmonic O-H stretching frequency were calculated with the latter being in good agreement with the experimental data. The B3LYP optimal position of H2 physisorbed at the acidic Brönsted sites of chabazite (Si/Al = 11/1 and 5/1) brings about an interaction energy definitely smaller than that derived from infrared spectroscopy, because of the known deficiencies of this functional to cope with dispersive interactions. The latter was included by means of an ONIOM-like procedure that combines periodic B3LYP energy with results at the MP2 level on selected clusters cut out of the chabazite framework. Adsorption of two H2 molecules for Si/Al = 5/1 chabazite showed a complete independence of each Brönsted site, and neither through-space nor intrastructure polarization effects are present. Within the periodic B3LYP approach shifts in both O-H and H-H anharmonic frequencies were also computed and compared with unperturbed values and with the available experimental results.

Design of Effective Zeolite Catalysts for the Complete Hydrogenation of CO2

Ab initio molecular orbital calculations have been applied to the study of the three-stage zeolite-catalyzed hydrogenation of CO2 to methanol. The results present strong evidence that appropriate chemical modifications to ZSM-5 can lead to significantly lower energy barriers for the three component reactions, that is, hydrogenation of CO2, HCO2H, and CH2O. Zeolites incorporating either Na+ or Ge are more effective catalysts than conventional acidic zeolites for the hydrogenation of CO2 to give HCO2H, but amine-based zeolites do not lead to significantly lower barriers for any of the three hydrogenation reactions. However, we predict that when all three features, namely, Na+, N, and Ge, are incorporated in the zeolite, there is a dramatic improvement in catalytic activity for all three reactions.

Outlook for cellulase improvement: screening and selection strategies

Cellulose is the most abundant renewable natural biological resource, and the production of biobased products and bioenergy from less costly renewable lignocellulosic materials is important for the sustainable development of human beings. A reduction in cellulase production cost, an improvement in cellulase performance, and an increase in sugar yields are all vital to reduce the processing costs of biorefineries. Improvements in specific cellulase activities for non-complexed cellulase mixtures can be implemented through cellulase engineering based on rational design or directed evolution for each cellulase component enzyme, as well as on the reconstitution of cellulase components. Here, we review quantitative cellulase activity assays using soluble and insoluble substrates, and focus on their advantages and limitations. Because there are no clear relationships between cellulase activities on soluble substrates and those on insoluble substrates, soluble substrates should not be used to screen or select improved cellulases for processing relevant solid substrates, such as plant cell walls. Cellulase improvement strategies based on directed evolution using screening on soluble substrates have been only moderately successful, and have primarily targeted improvement in thermal tolerance. Heterogeneity of insoluble cellulose, unclear dynamic interactions between insoluble substrate and cellulase components, and the complex competitive and/or synergic relationship among cellulase components limit rational design and/or strategies, depending on activity screening approaches. Herein, we hypothesize that continuous culture using insoluble cellulosic substrates could be a powerful selection tool for enriching beneficial cellulase mutants from the large library displayed on the cell surface.

The Path Forward for Biofuels and Biomaterials

Biomass represents an abundant carbon-neutral renewable resource for the production of bioenergy and biomaterials, and its enhanced use would address several societal needs. Advances in genetics, biotechnology, process chemistry, and engineering are leading to a new manufacturing concept for converting renewable biomass to valuable fuels and products, generally referred to as the biorefinery. The integration of agroenergy crops and biorefinery manufacturing technologies offers the potential for the development of sustainable biopower and biomaterials that will lead to a new manufacturing paradigm.

Trading water for carbon with biological carbon sequestration

Carbon sequestration strategies highlight tree plantations without considering their full environmental consequences. We combined field research, synthesis of more than 600 observations, and climate and economic modeling to document substantial losses in stream flow, and increased soil salinization and acidification, with afforestation. Plantations decreased stream flow by 227 millimeters per year globally (52%), with 13% of streams drying completely for at least 1 year. Regional modeling of U.S. plantation scenarios suggests that climate feedbacks are unlikely to offset such water losses and could exacerbate them. Plantations can help control groundwater recharge and upwelling but reduce stream flow and salinize and acidify some soils.

The photobiological production of hydrogen: potential efficiency and effectiveness as a renewable fuel

Photosynthetic microorganisms can produce hydrogen when illuminated, and there has been considerable interest in developing this to a commercially viable process. Its appealing aspects include the fact that the hydrogen would come from water, and that the process might be more energetically efficient than growing, harvesting, and processing crops. We review current knowledge about photobiological hydrogen production, and identify and discuss some of the areas where scientific and technical breakthroughs are essential for commercialization. First we describe the underlying biochemistry of the process, and identify some opportunities for improving photobiological hydrogen production at the molecular level. Then we address the fundamental quantum efficiency of the various processes that have been suggested, technological issues surrounding large-scale growth of hydrogen-producing microorganisms, and the scale and efficiency on which this would have to be practiced to make a significant contribution to current energy use.

Curbing the U.S. carbon deficit

The U.S. emitted approximately 1.58 petagrams (Pg) of fossil fuel carbon in 2001, approximately one-quarter of global CO(2) production. With climate change increasingly likely, strategies to reduce carbon emissions and stabilize climate are needed, including greater energy efficiency, renewable energy sources, geoengineering, decarbonization, and geological and biological sequestration. Two of the most commonly proposed biological strategies are restoring organic carbon in agricultural soils and using plantations to sequester carbon in soils and wood. Here, we compare scenarios of land-based sequestration to emissions reductions arising from increased fuel efficiency in transportation, targeting ways to reduce net U.S. emissions by 10% ( approximately 0.16 Pg of carbon per year). Based on mean sequestration rates, converting all U.S. croplands to no-till agriculture or retiring them completely could sequester approximately 0.059 Pg of carbon per year for several decades. Summary data across a range of plantations reveal an average rate of carbon storage an order of magnitude larger than in agricultural soils; in consequence, one-third of U.S. croplands or 44 million hectares would be needed for plantations to reach the target of approximately 0.16 Pg of carbon per year. For fossil fuel reductions, cars and light trucks generated approximately 0.31 Pg of carbon in U.S. emissions in 2001. To reduce net emissions by 0.16 Pg of carbon per year, a doubling of fuel efficiency for cars and light trucks is needed, a change feasible with current technology. Issues of permanence, leakage, and economic potentials are discussed briefly, as is the recognition that such scenarios are only a first step in addressing total U.S. emissions.

Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.

Sources or sinks? The responses of tropical forests to current and future climate and atmospheric composition

How tropical rainforests are responding to the ongoing global changes in atmospheric composition and climate is little studied and poorly understood. Although rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) could enhance forest productivity, increased temperatures and drought are likely to diminish it. The limited field data have produced conflicting views of the net impacts of these changes so far. One set of studies has seemed to point to enhanced carbon uptake; however, questions have arisen about these findings, and recent experiments with tropical forest trees indicate carbon saturation of canopy leaves and no biomass increase under enhanced CO2. Other field observations indicate decreased forest productivity and increased tree mortality in recent years of peak temperatures and drought (strong El Niño episodes). To determine current climatic responses of forests around the world tropics will require careful annual monitoring of ecosystem performance in representative forests. To develop the necessary process-level understanding of these responses will require intensified experimentation at the whole-tree and stand levels. Finally, a more complete understanding of tropical rainforest carbon cycling is needed for determining whether these ecosystems are carbon sinks or sources now, and how this status might change during the next century.

High efficiency carrier multiplication in PbSe nanocrystals: implications for solar energy conversion

We demonstrate for the first time that impact ionization (II) (the inverse of Auger recombination) occurs with very high efficiency in semiconductor nanocrystals (NCs). Interband optical excitation of PbSe NCs at low pump intensities, for which less than one exciton is initially generated per NC on average, results in the formation of two or more excitons (carrier multiplication) when pump photon energies are more than 3 times the NC band gap energy. The generation of multiexcitons from a single photon absorption event is observed to take place on an ultrafast (picosecond) time scale and occurs with up to 100% efficiency depending upon the excess energy of the absorbed photon. Efficient II in NCs can be used to considerably increase the power conversion efficiency of NC-based solar cells.

Hydrate composite particles for ocean carbon sequestration: field verification

This paper reports on the formation and dissolution of CO2/seawater/CO2 hydrate composite particles produced during field experiments in Monterey Bay, CA using a CO2 injector system previously developed in the laboratory. The injector consisted of a coflow reactor wherein water was introduced as a jet into liquid CO2, causing vigorous mixing of the two immiscible fluids to promote the formation of CO2 hydrate that is stable at ambient pressures and temperatures typical of ocean depths greater than approximately 500 m. Using flow rate ratios of water and CO2 of 1:1 and 5:1, particulate composites of CO2 hydrate/liquid CO2/seawater phases were produced in seawater at depths between 1100 and 1300 m. The resultant composite particles were tracked by a remotely operated vehicle system as they freely traveled in an imaging box that had no bottom or top walls. Results from the field experiments were consistent with laboratory experiments, which were conducted in a 70 L high-pressure vessel to simulate the conditions in the ocean at intermediate depths. The particle velocity and volume histories were monitored and used to calculate the conversion of CO2 into hydrate and its subsequent dissolution rate after release into the ocean. The dissolution rate of the composite particles was found to be higher than that reported for pure CO2 droplets. However, when the rate was corrected to correspond to pure CO2, the difference was very small. Results indicate that a higher conversion of liquid CO2 to CO2 hydrate is needed to form negatively buoyant particles in seawater when compared to freshwater, due primarily to the increased density of the liquid phase but also due to processes involving brine rejection during hydrate formation.

Modern global climate change

Modern climate change is dominated by human influences, which are now large enough to exceed the bounds of natural variability. The main source of global climate change is human-induced changes in atmospheric composition. These perturbations primarily result from emissions associated with energy use, but on local and regional scales, urbanization and land use changes are also important. Although there has been progress in monitoring and understanding climate change, there remain many scientific, technical, and institutional impediments to precisely planning for, adapting to, and mitigating the effects of climate change. There is still considerable uncertainty about the rates of change that can be expected, but it is clear that these changes will be increasingly manifested in important and tangible ways, such as changes in extremes of temperature and precipitation, decreases in seasonal and perennial snow and ice extent, and sea level rise. Anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. We are venturing into the unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could be quite disruptive.

The Challenge of Long-Term Climate Change

Climate policy needs to address the multidecadal to centennial time scale of climate change. Although the realization of short-term targets is an important first step, to be effective climate policies need to be conceived as long-term programs that will achieve a gradual transition to an essentially emission-free economy on the time scale of a century. This requires a considerably broader spectrum of policy measures than the primarily market-based instruments invoked for shorter term mitigation policies. A successful climate policy must consist of a dual approach focusing on both short-term targets and long-term goals.

Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Even if we could determine a "safe" level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric CO2 is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty in allowable increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and allowable CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high, climate stabilization will require a massive transition to CO2 emission-free energy technologies.