Association of Cigarette Sales With Comprehensive Menthol Flavor Ban in Massachusetts

The Impact of Menthol Cigarette Bans: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

This review investigates the impacts of banning the sale of menthol cigarettes at stores.

METHODS

A systematic search of studies published in English up to November 2022 was conducted. The following databases were searched: PubMed/Medline, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and Embase, as well as a non-indexed journal. Studies evaluating either the impact of real-world or hypothesized menthol cigarette bans were included. Primary outcomes include tobacco use behaviors. Secondary outcomes include cigarette sales, retailer compliance, and the tobacco industry's response to a menthol ban. Data on tobacco use behavior after a menthol ban were pooled using random-effects models. Two pairs of reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality.

RESULTS

Of the 964 articles that were identified during the initial search, 78 were included in the review and 16 were included in the meta-analysis. Cessation rates among menthol cigarette smokers were high after a menthol ban. Pooled results show that 24% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 20%, 28%) of menthol cigarette smokers quit smoking after a menthol ban, 50% (95% CI: 31%, 68%) switched to non-menthol cigarettes, 12% (95% CI: 3%, 20%) switched to other flavored tobacco products, and 24% (95% CI: 17%, 31%) continued smoking menthol cigarettes. Hypothesized quitting and switching rates were fairly close to real-world rates. Studies found the tobacco industry attempts to undermine menthol bans. National menthol bans appear more effective than local or state menthol bans.

CONCLUSIONS

Menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation suggesting their potential to improve public health.

IMPLICATIONS

Findings from this review suggest that menthol cigarette bans promote smoking cessation among menthol cigarette smokers and have the potential to improve public health.

Association between cigarette sales in the USA and FDA's announcement of its intention to prohibit menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes

INTRODUCTION

On 29 April 2021, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced its intention to prohibit menthol as a characterising flavour in cigarettes.

METHODS

We assessed the changes in cigarette sales associated with the FDA's announcement using interrupted time series analysis based on monthly retail point-of-sale data on cigarettes from the NielsenIQ Local Trade Area (LTA) data from September 2019 to April 2022. Main outcome variables included LTA-level monthly menthol and non-menthol cigarette sales per 1000-persons.

RESULTS

Monthly cigarette sales were declining before the FDA's announcement (menthol vs non-menthol: -1.68 (95% CI -1.92, -1.45) vs -3.14 (95% CI -3.33, -2.96) packs per 1000-persons). Monthly menthol cigarette sales increased immediately in May 2021 after the FDA's announcement by 6.44 packs per 1000-persons (95% CI 3.83, 9.05). Analysis stratified by LTA-level racial/ethnic compositions showed that LTAs with a relatively higher proportion of non-Hispanic Black population (>8.94%) experienced higher spike in menthol cigarette sales in May 2021 immediately after the announcement and higher post-announcement 12-month menthol cigarette sales than expected.

CONCLUSIONS

Areas with a relatively higher proportion of non-Hispanic Black population are potentially at risk of experiencing increased burden of menthol cigarette consumption. Targeted community level cessation support in non-Hispanic Black majority areas may help mitigate the growing burden of menthol cigarette smoking and improve health equity. The findings of this study also suggest that FDA's prompt finalisation and enforcement of such ban may help avoid extending the increased burden of menthol cigarette consumptions in non-Hispanic Black majority areas.

A systematic review and network meta-analysis of population-level interventions to tackle smoking behaviour

This preregistered systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO: CRD 42022311392) aimed to synthesize the effectiveness of all available population-level tobacco policies on smoking behaviour. Our search across 5 databases and leading organizational websites resulted in 9,925 records, with 476 studies meeting our inclusion criteria. In our narrative summary and both pairwise and network meta-analyses, we identified anti-smoking campaigns, health warnings and tax increases as the most effective tobacco policies for promoting smoking cessation. Flavour bans and free/discounted nicotine replacement therapy also showed statistically significant positive effects on quit rates. The network meta-analysis results further indicated that smoking bans, anti-tobacco campaigns and tax increases effectively reduced smoking prevalence. In addition, flavour bans significantly reduced e-cigarette consumption. Both the narrative summary and the meta-analyses revealed that smoking bans, tax increases and anti-tobacco campaigns were associated with reductions in tobacco consumption and sales. On the basis of the available evidence, anti-tobacco campaigns, smoking bans, health warnings and tax increases are probably the most effective policies for curbing smoking behaviour.

Association of nicotine replacement therapy product sales with menthol cigarette sales restriction in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

Massachusetts was the first to implement a state-wide menthol cigarette sales restriction in the USA. Following its implementation in June 2020, evidence showed declines in cigarette sales in Massachusetts; however, changes in nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) product sales are unknown.

METHODS

This cohort study analysed NRT products sold by US-based retailers available in 26 states from the Nielsen Retail Scanner Data. Outcomes were state-level 4-week aggregate sales of gum, lozenge and patch NRT products converted into pieces per 1000 adults (aged ≥18 years) who smoke cigarettes based on smoking rates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and corresponding population from the US Census Bureau. We used a difference-in-differences method to compare changes in NRT product sales in Massachusetts before (1 January 2017 to 13 June 2020) and after (14 June 2020 to 4 December 2021) the policy with sales in 25 states.

RESULTS

The analysis included 1664 observations for each NRT product, with 1170 from before and 494 from after the policy change. The 4-week NRT product sales per 1000 adults who smoke cigarettes in Massachusetts compared with the comparison states increased for gums by 643.11 (95% CI 365.33 to 920.89; p<0.001) pieces or 12.9% and for lozenges by 436.97 (95% CI 292.88 to 581.06; p<0.001) pieces or 17.9% but no statistically significant change in patches after implementing the policy.

CONCLUSION

The increases in sales of gum and lozenge NRT products in Massachusetts after implementing the policy suggest that a nationwide ban on menthol cigarettes can increase NRT product use; therefore, interventions are needed to strengthen cessation support for adults who smoke cigarettes but intend to quit.

Education, organizational changes, and enforcement challenges of the 2019 flavored tobacco sales restriction in Massachusetts

OBJECTIVES

In November 2019, the Massachusetts legislature passed An Act Modernizing Tobacco Control and became the first state to restrict retail sales of all flavored (including menthol) cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and other tobacco products (the Act). Additional tobacco control policies and health insurance coverage for tobacco treatment were included as part of the Act. Implementation of these policies occurred between November 2019 and June 2020. This study explored challenges and facilitators during the implementation of the Act experienced by public health officials, school personnel, and healthcare providers.

METHODS

We conducted in-depth interviews with a purposive sample of 9 public health officials and advocates, 9 school personnel, and 8 healthcare providers from March to December 2021. We conducted thematic analysis of interview transcripts using inductive codes of key themes emerging from the interviews.

RESULTS

Interviewees highlighted three key themes that impacted the implementation of the Act: 1) Education of those impacted by the Act, 2) Organizational-level changes to incorporate the Act, and 3) Enforcement challenges. Examples of challenges to the implementation of the Act included COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, navigating tobacco industry tactics around naming flavors, and confusion regarding health insurance coverage for tobacco use cessation programs. Examples of facilitators were enforcement leading to retailer compliance, committed advocacy efforts of leadership/champions, and strong coordination within and between organizations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings of Massachusetts's experience in policy implementation can inform the preparation to implement similar tobacco control policies in other states.

The Scientific Basis for the Regulation of Flavors in Tobacco Products

Effective tobacco policies are important for reducing the harm of tobacco use and can have a broad impact at the population level. This review provides an overview of how clinical science can inform tobacco policies with a focus on policies related to flavored tobacco products, using menthol cigarettes as an illustrative example. Specifically, this review summarizes the role of flavors in tobacco use and the history of regulation of flavored tobacco products by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), provides an overview of clinical research methods used to contribute to the scientific evidence to inform FDA tobacco policies, discusses key findings related to menthol tobacco products using these methods, and proposes future directions for clinical research. As the tobacco marketplace continues to evolve with new products and flavor chemicals, ongoing clinical science will be essential for establishing evidence-based policies to protect public health and reduce tobacco-related health disparities.

Tobacco Retail Sales in Massachusetts and New Hampshire Before and After Massachusetts' Flavored Tobacco Restriction

In June 2020, Massachusetts became the first state to implement a comprehensive flavored tobacco restriction. One concern was that Massachusetts residents would travel to New Hampshire to purchase restricted products. This article assesses tobacco sales in both states post-law implementation. Retail scanner data were obtained from the Nielsen Company and Information Resources, Inc (IRI), from 1 year pre-law implementation to 2 years post-law implementation. Data post-law implementation were compared with data from 1 year pre-law implementation (baseline). In Massachusetts, 2 years post-law implementation, flavored and menthol tobacco sales decreased by more than 90%. Total sales decreased by around 20%. In New Hampshire, menthol tobacco sales increased (25.1% in IRI and 18.2% in Nielsen), but total sales changed minimally (<5% increase in IRI, <5% decrease in Nielsen). When data from both states were combined, total sales decreased by around 10%. The net decrease in total tobacco sales across Massachusetts and New Hampshire indicates Massachusetts' flavored tobacco restriction resulted in a reduction in tobacco sales despite potential cross-border purchases.

Examining the relationship of flavored tobacco product policy restrictions and flavored tobacco product use, among adolescents and young adults in the U.S

OBJECTIVE

This work examines the relationship between local flavor policy exposure and any tobacco product use and flavored tobacco product use among U.S. youth and young adults, as well as the equity potential of these policies by race/ethnicity.

METHODS

Participants were aged 15-36 (n = 10,893) surveyed from September-December 2019 using national, address- and probability-based sampling. Local flavor policies enacted before survey completion were linked to participant home address. Weighted cross-sectional multivariable logistic regression examined individual coverage by flavor policy vs. no flavor policy, with current any tobacco or flavored tobacco use, controlling for individual and county-level demographics, psychosocial variables, and other tobacco control policies. Interactions between race/ethnicity and any tobacco use and flavored tobacco use were assessed.

RESULTS

Those covered by a flavor policy vs. no policy had lower odds of any tobacco use (aOR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.55-1.00) and current flavored tobacco use (aOR = 0.67, 95% CI = 0.48-0.93). Compared with Non-Hispanic (NH)-White individuals, NH-Black individuals (aOR = 1.08, CI = 1.04-1.12) had higher odds of any tobacco use, and non-Hispanic Asian individuals had lower odds of any tobacco use (aOR = 0.67, CI = 0.53-0.85). Hispanic individuals exposed to policy had lower odds of flavored tobacco use compared to NH-White peers.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to flavor restriction policies is associated with lower odds of any tobacco and flavored use among youth and young adults. Flavor restrictions may be beneficial in reducing tobacco use in youth from diverse racial/ethnic backgrounds. However, passing policies covering NH-Black individuals is needed to mitigate disparities in tobacco use by flavor policy coverage over time.

Sociodemographic and Temporal Differences in Menthol Cigarette Use Among US Adults Who Smoke, 1999-2018

Introduction

Monitoring menthol cigarette use allows for identification of potential health disparities. We examined sociodemographic and temporal differences in menthol cigarette use among US adults who smoke.

Methods

We analyzed data from the 1999-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for adults aged 20 years or older who smoke (N = 11,431) using binary logistic regression.

Results

Among US adults who smoke, 28.8% used menthol cigarettes. After adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, education, income-to-poverty ratio, and health status, the prevalence of menthol use among adults who smoke increased on average by 3.8% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.9%) annually. Non-Hispanic Black adults had the highest average prevalence of menthol cigarette use, 73.0% (95% CI, 70.9%-75.2%), and Mexican American adults had higher average annual increase in menthol cigarette use, 7.1% (95% CI, 4.0%-10.3%). Adults with fair or poor health status had a 4.3% annual increase in menthol cigarette use (95% CI, 2.5%-6.1%). The adjusted prevalence ratios of menthol cigarette use were 1.61 (95% CI, 1.39-1.83) for adults aged 20-29 years compared with those aged 65 years or older, 1.41 (95% CI, 1.32-1.49) for female adults compared with male adults, and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.07-1.27) for high school graduates or higher compared with those with no high school diploma.

Conclusion

Non-Hispanic Black adults who smoke had the highest prevalence of menthol cigarette use among all racial and ethnic groups; the prevalence of menthol cigarette use among adults who smoke increased especially among Mexican American adults, younger adults, and adults who reported fair to poor health status.

Synthetic Cooling Agent and Other Flavor Additives in "Non-Menthol" Cigarettes Marketed in California and Massachusetts After Menthol Cigarette Bans

This study uses a bioassay and chemical analysis to determine the proportion of newly introduced “non-menthol” cigarette brands with sensory cooling effects, cooling agents added, and any other flavor additives after menthol cigarette bans.

Early evidence of flavored tobacco product restrictions in Massachusetts and New York State

INTRODUCTION

With many US states and localities enacting policies that restrict flavored e-cigarette sales, evaluation of these restrictions is critical to inform future efforts. This study analyzed both survey and retail scanner data to assess early-stage impacts of flavored tobacco sales restrictions in Massachusetts and New York State on e-cigarettes sales and product use among young people.

METHODS

This study uses state-level e-cigarette retail sales data and survey data from youth and young adults (aged 13-24 years). Cross-sectional surveys were conducted at two time points in Massachusetts (both post policy implementation) and New York (pre and post policy implementation); retail sales data in both states were analyzed from 2019 through 2020 and compared to sales in control states.

RESULTS

E-cigarette unit sales decreased significantly following the implementation of statewide restrictions on flavored e-cigarettes in both Massachusetts and New York State (p<0.001). Survey data showed a decrease in mint flavored e-cigarette use in Massachusetts and an increase in tobacco flavored e-cigarette use in New York State over time (p=0.001). In both states, a greater proportion of respondents reported using disposable e-cigarettes at Time 2 compared to Time 1 (p=0.001). Among those who reported using fruit-flavored e-cigarettes in New York State, a significantly greater proportion reported disposable device use at Time 2 compared to Time 1 (p=0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from these case studies from two US states suggest that statewide policies reduce the availability of e-cigarettes and have the potential to reduce use of many youth-appealing flavors. The increase in use of disposable e-cigarettes likely reflects existing loopholes in federal policy, which may be attenuating the potential impact of strong state-level policies.

Impacts of Tax and Flavor Tobacco Policies on San Francisco Bay Area Tobacco Prices

California Proposition 56 increased the state tobacco tax by $2 per cigarette pack effective April 1, 2017. Between 2015-2020 San Francisco (SF) and some cities in Alameda County enacted local flavored tobacco sales restrictions. SF also increased its Cigarette Litter Abatement Fee, from $0.20/pack in 2015 to $1.00 in 2020. Compare the change in tobacco prices before (2015) and after (2019/20) the implementation of a $2 increase in tobacco excise tax and local flavored tobacco policies in SF and Alameda Counties. Descriptive study of the pre-to-post policy analysis design. We drew a proportional random sample of retailers (N=463) in SF and Alameda Counties, by city. Using multivariable, single- and multiple-level linear regressions, we compared inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and by flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Change in inflation-adjusted average tobacco prices in 2015 vs. 2019/20 by county and flavor policy, accounting for socio-demographics. Between 2015-2019/20, the increase in cigarette prices was higher than the $2 tax increase, and higher in SF than Alameda County (+$4.6 vs +$2.5). SF retailers stopped selling Newport menthol cigarettes and Blu brand menthol e-cigarettes in 2019/20. Adjusted average cigarette prices increased significantly more in SF and Alameda County cities with comprehensive or partial flavor policies versus cities without flavor policies (by $3.23 and $2.11). Local flavor policies affected menthol product availability and may have had positive spillover effects and indirectly increased pack prices.

Assessing the Impact of the Massachusetts Temporary Flavor Ban on Licensed Tobacco Retailers

Introduction

In 2019, the state of Massachusetts signed into law the first statewide sales restrictions of flavored ENDS/tobacco products for both physical and online shops in response to a previous executive order to curb E-Cigarette, or Vaping Product, Use Associated Lung Injury (EVALI) cases that were surging throughout the nation.

Methodology

This study obtained licensure data from the Massachusetts Department of Revenue, to observe the changes in retail licensure comparing the pre ban (October 2018-August 2019) and post ban periods (October 2020- August 2021). A series of linear regression tests were conducted on both periods using census tract data to explore potential associations with sociodemographic covariates, including median age, median household income, and population proportion by gender, age, and race/ethnicity groups.

Results

Analysis of the Massachusetts post-ban period (October 2020-August 2021) found that new tobacco retail licenses issued decreased by 52.9% (n = 968) when compared to the pre-ban period (October 2018-August 2019) of 1831. A significant positive association was discovered between change in new retailer count and proportion male population (2.48 ± 1.05, P = .018) as well as proportion Hispanic population (1.19 ± .25, P < .001) at the census tract level.

Conclusion/Discussion

Our analysis indicates that, following the temporary MA flavor sales ban, the total number of licenses decreased, though decreases were more pronounced for new licenses when compared to continuing licenses. Higher increases in new tobacco retailer density were significantly associated with concentration of male and Hispanic populations.

Association of Comprehensive Menthol Flavor Ban With Current Cigarette Smoking in Massachusetts From 2017 to 2021

This cross-sectional study compares self-reported smoking by adults before vs after prohibition of menthol-flavored cigarettes.

Trends in cigarette consumption across the United States, with projections to 2035

OBJECTIVES

To make projections of cigarette consumption that incorporate state-specific trends in smoking behaviors, assess the potential for states to reach an ideal target, and identify State-specific targets for cigarette consumption.

METHODS

We used 70 years (1950-2020) of annual state-specific estimates of per capita cigarette consumption (expressed as packs per capita or "ppc") from the Tax Burden on Tobacco reports (N = 3550). We summarized trends within each state by linear regression models and the variation in rates across states by the Gini coefficient. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were used to make state-specific forecasts of ppc from 2021 through 2035.

RESULTS

Since 1980, the average rate of decline in US per capita cigarette consumption was 3.3% per year, but rates of decline varied considerably across US states (SD = 1.1% per year). The Gini coefficient showed growing inequity in cigarette consumption across US states. After reaching its lowest level in 1984 (Gini = 0.09), the Gini coefficient began increasing by 2.8% (95% CI: 2.5%, 3.1%) per year from 1985 to 2020 and is projected to continue to increase by 48.1% (95% PI = 35.3%, 64.2%) from 2020 to 2035 (Gini = 0.35; 95% PI: 0.32, 0.39). Forecasts from ARIMA models suggested that only 12 states have a realistic chance (≥50%) of reaching very low levels of per capita cigarette consumption (≤13 ppc) by 2035, but that all US states have opportunity to make some progress.

CONCLUSION

While ideal targets may be out of reach for most US states within the next decade, every US state has the potential to lower its per capita cigarette consumption, and our identification of more realistic targets may provide a helpful incentive.

Impact of Massachusetts law prohibiting flavored tobacco products sales on cross-border cigarette sales

Background

In June 2020, Massachusetts implemented a law prohibiting the sale of all flavored tobacco products, including menthol cigarettes. This law was associated with significant declines in overall cigarette and menthol cigarette sales in Massachusetts, however it is unknown whether the law has increased cross-border sales in neighboring states where menthol cigarettes are still sold.

Methods

U.S. cigarette retail scanner data were licensed from the IRi Company. Cigarette pack sales were summed in 4-week periods during January 2020-December 2021 (n = 832). Outcomes were state-level pack sales per 1000 population, overall and by flavor status (menthol and non-flavored). A difference-in-differences analysis was used to examine adjusted sales for Massachusetts border states (New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island) before (January 2020-May 2020) and after (June 2020-December 2021) the Massachusetts’s law, compared to 28 non-border states. Control variables included state and time fixed effects; real price per pack; tobacco control policies; COVID-19 cases and deaths, and related statewide closure; and state sociodemographic characteristics.

Results

Following the law, unadjusted sales of menthol, non-flavored, and overall cigarettes trended upward in border states; however, these increases were not statistically significant or different from sales patterns in non-border states. This finding persisted after accounting for product prices, tobacco control policies, the COVID-19 pandemic, sociodemographic factors, and fixed effects.

Conclusion

Laws prohibiting the sale of flavored tobacco products, including menthol products, reduce access to these products, while having no significant impact on cross-border sales in neighboring states where menthol cigarettes are sold.

Spatial Analysis of Changes in Cigarette Sales in Massachusetts and Bordering States Following the Massachusetts Menthol Flavor Ban

This cohort study examines changes in cigarette sales in Massachusetts and its bordering states following a comprehensive ban on menthol flavor in Massachusetts in 2020.

Impact of Massachusetts' Statewide Sales Restriction on Flavored and Menthol Tobacco Products on Tobacco Sales in Massachusetts and Surrounding States, June 2020

In June 2020, Massachusetts implemented a first in the nation statewide law that restricts sales of menthol and other flavored tobacco. Since implementation, sales data indicate high retailer compliance. Drastic decreases were seen in sales of all flavored tobacco. Most neighboring states did not see increases in overall tobacco sales, although New Hampshire saw an initial increase in menthol sales, which was not sustained. We found that menthol restrictions are effective and that federal-level legislation is important, as some cross-border sales highlight. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(8):1147-1150. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.306879).