Development and External Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Dementia

Improving measurement of functional status among older adults in primary care: A pilot study

Despite its importance for clinical care and outcomes among older adults, functional status-the ability to perform basic activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental ADLs (IADLs)-is seldom routinely measured in primary care settings. The objective of this study was to pilot test a person-centered, interprofessional intervention to improve identification and management of functional impairment among older adults in Veterans Affairs (VA) primary care practices. The four-component intervention included (1) an interprofessional educational session; (2) routine, standardized functional status measurement among patients aged ≥75; (3) annual screening by nurses using a standardized instrument and follow-up assessment by primary care providers; and (4) electronic tools and templates to facilitate increased identification and improved management of functional impairment. Surveys, semi-structured interviews, and electronic health record data were used to measure implementation outcomes (appropriateness, acceptability and satisfaction, feasibility, fidelity, adoption/reach, sustainability). We analyzed qualitative interviews using rapid qualitative analysis. During the study period, all 959 eligible patients were screened (100% reach), of whom 7.3% (n = 58) reported difficulty or needing help with ≥1 ADL and 11.8% (n = 113) reported difficulty or needing help with ≥1 IADL. In a chart review among a subset of 50 patients with functional impairment, 78% percent of clinician notes for the visit when screening was completed had content related to function, and 48% of patients had referrals ordered to address impairments (e.g., physical therapy) within 1 week. Clinicians highly rated the quality of the educational session and reported increased ability to measure and communicate about function. Clinicians and patients reported that the intervention was appropriate, acceptable, and feasible to complete, even during the COVID pandemic. These findings suggest that this intervention is a promising approach to improve identification and management of functional impairment for older patients in primary care. Broader implementation and evaluation of this intervention is currently underway.

Looking Beyond Mortality Prediction: Primary Care Physician Views of Patients' Palliative Care Needs Predicted by a Machine Learning Tool

OBJECTIVES

 To assess primary care physicians' (PCPs) perception of the need for serious illness conversations (SIC) or other palliative care interventions in patients flagged by a machine learning tool for high 1-year mortality risk.

METHODS

 We surveyed PCPs from four Brigham and Women's Hospital primary care practice sites. Multiple mortality prediction algorithms were ensembled to assess adult patients of these PCPs who were either enrolled in the hospital's integrated care management program or had one of several chronic conditions. The patients were classified as high or low risk of 1-year mortality. A blinded survey had PCPs evaluate these patients for palliative care needs. We measured PCP and machine learning tool agreement regarding patients' need for an SIC/elevated risk of mortality.

RESULTS

 Of 66 PCPs, 20 (30.3%) participated in the survey. Out of 312 patients evaluated, 60.6% were female, with a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 69.3 (17.5) years, and a mean (SD) Charlson Comorbidity Index of 2.80 (2.89). The machine learning tool identified 162 (51.9%) patients as high risk. Excluding deceased or unfamiliar patients, PCPs felt that an SIC was appropriate for 179 patients; the machine learning tool flagged 123 of these patients as high risk (68.7% concordance). For 105 patients whom PCPs deemed SIC unnecessary, the tool classified 83 as low risk (79.1% concordance). There was substantial agreement between PCPs and the tool (Gwet's agreement coefficient of 0.640).

CONCLUSIONS

 A machine learning mortality prediction tool offers promise as a clinical decision aid, helping clinicians pinpoint patients needing palliative care interventions.

The Impact of Implementation of Palliative, Non-Operative Management on Mortality of Operatively Treated Geriatric Hip Fracture Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

(1) Background: Hip fracture patients with very limited life expectancy can opt for non-operative management (NOM) within a palliative care context. The implementation of NOM in the palliative context may affect the mortality of the operatively treated population. This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine whether the operatively treated geriatric hip fracture population would have a lower in-hospital mortality rate and fewer postoperative complications after the introduction of NOM within a palliative care context for patients with very limited life expectancy. (2) Methods: Data from 1 February 2019 to 1 February 2022 of patients aged 70 years or older were analyzed to give a comparison between patients before and after implementation of NOM within a palliative care context. (3) Results: Comparison between 550 patients before and 485 patients after implementation showed no significant difference in in-hospital or 1-year mortality rates (2.9% vs. 1.4%, p = 0.139; 22.4% vs. 20.2%, p = 0.404, respectively). Notably, post-implementation, fewer patients had prior dementia diagnoses (15% vs. 21%, p = 0.010), and intensive care unit admissions decreased (3.5% vs. 1.2%, p = 0.025). (4) Conclusions: The implementation of NOM within a palliative care context did not significantly reduce mortality or complications. However, NOM within palliative care is deemed a more patient-centered approach for geriatric hip fracture patients with very limited life expectancy.

What influences life expectancy in people with dementia? Social support as an emerging protective factor

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate the role of support from the social environment for the life expectancy in people with dementia beyond well-established individual demographic and clinical predictors over a period of up to 8 years.

METHODS

The analyses are based on data from 500 community-dwelling individuals in Germany who tested positive for dementia and were followed up for up to 8 years. Life expectancy was examined in relation to perceived social support as well as well-established socio-demographic (age, sex) and clinical predictors (cognitive status, functional status, comorbidities), using Cox regressions.

RESULTS

Greater support from the social environment reduced the risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63-0.98), with the role of emotional support being particularly important. Furthermore, higher age was associated with an increased mortality risk (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.05-1.11), while female sex (HR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.48-0.85) and higher cognitive (HR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.98) and functional status (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.86-0.97) were associated with higher life expectancy.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides novel evidence that less support from the social environment, especially emotional support, is a risk factor for shorter life expectancy in people with dementia-beyond known clinical factors. Not only the clinical and caregiving needs but also their psychosocial needs of individuals with dementia should be emphasised.

Gender-specific association of the accumulation of chronic conditions and disability in activities of daily living with depressive symptoms

BACKGROUND

In the era of rapid aging with a rising prevalence of multimorbidity, complex interactions between physical and psychological conditions have challenged the health care system. However, little is known about the association of the accumulation of chronic conditions and disability in activities of daily living with depressive symptoms, especially in developed countries.

METHODS

This population-based cohort study used data from the Health and Retirement Study. A total of 22,335 middle-aged and older adults participated in the 2014 (T1), 2016 (T2), and 2018 (T3) waves of the cohort were included. The accumulation of chronic conditions and disability were defined as the number of chronic diseases and the five activities of daily living. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. A longitudinal mediation model with a cross-lagged panel model was run. As robust check, the models were applied with a longer follow-up period (from 2012 to 2018). Additionally, results were estimated in China.

RESULTS

Bidirectional associations have been found among the accumulation of chronic conditions, disability, and depressive symptoms, especially between disability and depression. Disability (T2) mediated 11.11 % and 16.87 % of the association between the accumulation of chronic conditions (T1) and depression (T3) for men and women in the United States. The results were consistent in robust analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found that men and women routinely experienced disability and depressive symptoms because of the accumulation of chronic conditions. In terms of depressive symptoms, women were more sensitive to the accumulation of chronic conditions through disability.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

A comprehensive bioinformatics analysis identifies mitophagy biomarkers and potential Molecular mechanisms in hypertensive nephropathy

Mitophagy, the selective removal of damaged mitochondria, plays a critical role in kidney diseases, but its involvement in hypertensive nephropathy (HTN) is not well understood. To address this gap, we investigated mitophagy-related genes in HTN, identifying potential biomarkers for diagnosis and treatment. Transcriptome datasets from the Gene Expression Omnibus database were analyzed, resulting in the identification of seven mitophagy related differentially expressed genes (MR-DEGs), namely PINK1, ULK1, SQSTM1, ATG5, ATG12, MFN2, and UBA52. Further, we explored the correlation between MR-DEGs, immune cells, and inflammatory factors. The identified genes demonstrated a strong correlation with Mast cells, T-cells, TGFβ3, IL13, and CSF3. Machine learning techniques were employed to screen important genes, construct diagnostic models, and evaluate their accuracy. Consensus clustering divided the HTN patients into two mitophagy subgroups, with Subgroup 2 showing higher levels of immune cell infiltration and inflammatory factors. The functions of their proteins primarily involve complement, coagulation, lipids, and vascular smooth muscle contraction. Single-cell RNA sequencing revealed that mitophagy was most significant in proximal tubule cells (PTC) in HTN patients. Pseudotime analysis of PTC confirmed the expression changes observed in the transcriptome. Intercellular communication analysis suggested that mitophagy might regulate PTC's participation in intercellular crosstalk. Notably, specific transcription factors such as HNF4A, PPARA, and STAT3 showed strong correlations with mitophagy-related genes in PTC, indicating their potential role in modulating PTC function and influencing the onset and progression of HTN. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of mitophagy in HTN, enhancing our understanding of the pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of HTN.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Prediction of survival of persons with advanced dementia using the advanced dementia prognostic tool: A 2-year prospective study

BACKGROUND

In this prospective study, we evaluated the usefulness of the advanced dementia prognostic tool (ADEPT) for estimating the 2-year survival of persons with advanced dementia (AD) in China.

METHODS

The study predicted the 2-year mortality of 115 persons with AD using the ADEPT score.

RESULTS

In total, 115 persons with AD were included in the study. Of these persons, 48 died. The mean ADEPT score was 13.0. The AUROC for the prediction of the 2-year mortality rate using the ADEPT score was 0.62. The optimal threshold of the ADEPT score was 11.2, which had an AUROC of 0.63, specificity of 41.8, and sensitivity of 83.3.

CONCLUSIONS

The ADEPT score based on a threshold of 11.2 may serve as a prognostic tool to determine the 2-year survival rate of persons with AD in Chongqing, China. However, further studies are needed to explore the nature of this relationship.

Prehospital acute life-threatening cardiovascular disease in elderly: an observational, prospective, multicentre, ambulance-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to explore the association of demographic and prehospital parameters with short-term and long-term mortality in acute life-threatening cardiovascular disease by using a hazard model, focusing on elderly individuals, by comparing patients under 75 years versus patients over 75 years of age.

DESIGN

Prospective, multicentre, observational study.

SETTING

Emergency medical services (EMS) delivery study gathering data from two back-to-back studies between 1 October 2019 and 30 November 2021. Six advanced life support (ALS), 43 basic life support and five hospitals in Spain were considered.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients suffering from acute life-threatening cardiovascular disease attended by the EMS.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality from any cause within the first to the 365 days following EMS attendance. The main measures included prehospital demographics, biochemical variables, prehospital ALS techniques used and syndromic suspected conditions.

RESULTS

A total of 1744 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The 365-day cumulative mortality in the elderly amounted to 26.1% (229 cases) versus 11.6% (11.6%) in patients under 75 years old. Elderly patients (≥75 years) presented a twofold risk of mortality compared with patients ≤74 years. Life-threatening interventions (mechanical ventilation, cardioversion and defibrillation) were also related to a twofold increased risk of mortality. Importantly, patients suffering from acute heart failure presented a more than twofold increased risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed the prehospital variables associated with the long-term mortality of patients suffering from acute cardiovascular disease. Our results provide important insights for the development of specific codes or scores for cardiovascular diseases to facilitate the risk of mortality characterisation.

Outcomes and cost analysis of patients with dementia in the intensive care unit: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a neurological syndrome affecting the growing elderly population. While patients with dementia are known to require significant hospital resources, little is known regarding the outcomes and costs of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with dementia.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study of patients with dementia admitted to the ICU in Ontario, Canada from 2016 to 2019. We described the characteristics and outcomes of these patients alongside those with dementia admitted to non-ICU hospital settings. The primary outcome was hospital mortality but we also assessed length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, and costs.

RESULTS

Among 114,844 patients with dementia, 11,341 (9.9%) were admitted to the ICU. ICU patients were younger, more comorbid, and had less cognitive impairment (81.8 years, 22.8% had ≥ 3 comorbidities, 47.5% with moderate-severe dementia), compared to those in non-ICU settings (84.2 years, 15.0% had ≥ 3 comorbidities, 54.1% with moderate-severe dementia). Total mean LOS for patients in the ICU group was nearly 20 days, compared to nearly 14 days for the acute care group. Mortality in hospital was nearly three-fold greater in the ICU group compared to non-ICU group (22.2% vs. 8.8%). Total healthcare costs were increased for patients admitted to ICU vs. those in the non-ICU group ($67,201 vs. $54,080).

CONCLUSIONS

We find that patients with dementia admitted to the ICU have longer length of stay, higher in-hospital mortality, and higher total healthcare costs. As our study is primarily descriptive, future studies should investigate comprehensive goals of care planning, severity of illness, preventable costs, and optimizing quality of life in this high risk and vulnerable population.

Changes in the Use of Long-Term Medications Following Incident Dementia Diagnosis

Importance

Dementia is a life-altering diagnosis that may affect medication safety and goals for chronic disease management.

Objective

To examine changes in medication use following an incident dementia diagnosis among community-dwelling older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this cohort study of adults aged 67 years or older enrolled in traditional Medicare and Medicare Part D, patients with incident dementia diagnosed between January 2012 and December 2018 were matched to control patients based on demographics, geographic location, and baseline medication count. The index date was defined as the date of first dementia diagnosis or, for controls, the date of the closest office visit. Data were analyzed from August 2021 to June 2023.

Exposure

Incident dementia diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were overall medication counts and use of cardiometabolic, central nervous system (CNS)-active, and anticholinergic medications. A comparative time-series analysis was conducted to examine quarterly changes in medication use in the year before through the year following the index date.

Results

The study included 266 675 adults with incident dementia and 266 675 control adults; in both groups, 65.1% were aged 80 years or older (mean [SD] age, 82.2 [7.1] years) and 67.8% were female. At baseline, patients with incident dementia were more likely than controls to use CNS-active medications (54.32% vs 48.39%) and anticholinergic medications (17.79% vs 15.96%) and less likely to use most cardiometabolic medications (eg, diabetes medications, 31.19% vs 36.45%). Immediately following the index date, the cohort with dementia had a greater increase in mean number of medications used (0.41 vs -0.06; difference, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.27-0.66]) and in the proportion of patients using CNS-active medications (absolute change, 3.44% vs 0.79%; difference, 2.65% [95% CI, 0.85%-4.45%]) owing to an increased use of antipsychotics, antidepressants, and antiepileptics. The cohort with dementia also had a modestly greater decline in use of anticholinergic medications (quarterly change in use, -0.53% vs -0.21%; difference, -0.32% [95% CI, -0.55% to -0.08%]) and most cardiometabolic medications (eg, quarterly change in antihypertensive use: -0.84% vs -0.40%; difference, -0.44% [95% CI, -0.64% to -0.25%]). One year after diagnosis, 75.2% of the cohort with dementia were using 5 or more medications (2.8% increase).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of Medicare Part D beneficiaries, following an incident dementia diagnosis, patients were more likely to initiate CNS-active medications and modestly more likely to discontinue cardiometabolic and anticholinergic medications compared with the control group. These findings suggest missed opportunities to reduce burdensome polypharmacy by deprescribing long-term medications with high safety risks or limited likelihood of benefit or that may be associated with impaired cognition.

Multimorbidity Pattern and Risk for Mortality Among Patients With Dementia: A Nationwide Cohort Study Using Latent Class Analysis

OBJECTIVE

Individuals with dementia are at a substantially elevated risk for mortality; however, few studies have examined multimorbidity patterns and determined the inter-relationship between these comorbidities in predicting mortality risk.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study. Data from 6,556 patients who were diagnosed with dementia between 1997 and 2012 using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database were analyzed. Latent class analysis was performed using 16 common chronic conditions to identify mortality risk among potentially different latent classes. Logistic regression was performed to determine the adjusted association of the determined latent classes with the 5-year mortality rate.

RESULTS

With adjustment for age, a three-class model was identified, with 42.7% of participants classified as "low comorbidity class (cluster 1)", 44.2% as "cardiometabolic multimorbidity class (cluster 2)", and 13.1% as "FRINGED class (cluster 3, characterized by FRacture, Infection, NasoGastric feeding, and bleEDing over upper gastrointestinal tract)." The incidence of 5-year mortality was 17.6% in cluster 1, 26.7% in cluster 2, and 59.6% in cluster 3. Compared with cluster 1, the odds ratio for mortality was 9.828 (95% confidence interval [CI]=6.708-14.401; p<0.001) in cluster 2 and 1.582 (95% CI=1.281-1.953; p<0.001) in cluster 3.

CONCLUSION

Among patients with dementia, the risk for 5-year mortality was highest in the subpopulation characterized by fracture, urinary and pulmonary infection, upper gastrointestinal bleeding, and nasogastric intubation, rather than cancer or cardiometabolic comorbidities. These findings may improve decision-making and advance care planning for patients with dementia.

Validation of a Multivariate Prediction Model of the Clinical Progression of Alzheimer's Disease in a Community-Dwelling Multiethnic Cohort

BACKGROUND

The major aims of the three Predictors Studies have been to further our understanding of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression sufficiently to predict the length of time from disease onset to major disease outcomes in individual patients with AD.

OBJECTIVES

To validate a longitudinal Grade of Membership (L-GoM) prediction algorithm developed using clinic-based, mainly white patients from the Predictors 2 Study in a statistically representative community-based sample of Hispanic (N = 211) and non-Hispanic (N = 62) older adults (with 60 males and 213 females) from the Predictors 3 Study and extend the algorithm to mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

METHODS

The L-GoM model was applied to data collected at the initial Predictors 3 visit for 150 subjects with AD and 123 with MCI. Participants were followed annually for up to seven years. Observed rates of survival and need for full-time care (FTC) were compared to those predicted by the algorithm.

RESULTS

Initial MCI/AD severity in Predictors 3 was substantially higher than among clinic-based AD patients enrolled at the specialized Alzheimer's centers in Predictors 2. The observed survival and need for FTC followed the L-GoM model trajectories in individuals with MCI or AD, except for N = 32 subjects who were initially diagnosed with AD but reverted to a non-AD diagnosis on follow-up.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that the L-GoM model is applicable to community-dwelling, multiethnic older adults with AD. They extend the use of the model to the prediction of outcomes for MCI. They also justify release of our L-GoM calculator at this time.