Association of UV Radiation Exposure, Diagnostic Scrutiny, and Melanoma Incidence in US Counties

Ecological study estimating melanoma overdiagnosis in the USA using the lifetime risk method

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the proportion of melanoma diagnoses (invasive and in situ) in the USA that might be overdiagnosed.

DESIGN

In this ecological study, incidence and mortality data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 registries database. DevCan software was used to calculate the cumulative lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma between 1975 and 2018, with adjustments made for changes in longevity and risk factors over the study period.

SETTING

USA.

PARTICIPANTS

White American men and women (1975-2018).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted for year 2018 competing mortality and changes in risk factors), which was inferred as likely overdiagnosis. The secondary outcome was an excess lifetime risk of melanoma diagnosis in each year between 1976 and 2018 (adjusted and unadjusted).

RESULTS

Between 1975 and 2018 the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma (invasive and in situ) increased from 3.2% (1 in 31) to 6.4% (1 in 16) among white men, and from 1.6% (1 in 63) to 4.5% (1 in 22) among white women. Over the same period, the adjusted lifetime risk of being diagnosed with melanoma in situ increased from 0.17% (1 in 588) to 2.7% (1 in 37) in white men and 0.08% (1 in 1250) to 2.0% (1 in 50) in white women. An estimated 49.7% of melanomas diagnosed in white men and 64.6% in white women were overdiagnosed in 2018. Among people diagnosed with melanomas in situ, 89.4% of white men and 85.4% of white women were likely overdiagnosed in 2018.

CONCLUSIONS

Melanoma overdiagnosis among white Americans is significant and increasing over time with an estimated 44 000 overdiagnosed in men and 39 000 in women in 2018. A large proportion of overdiagnosed melanomas are in situ cancers, pointing to a potential focus for intervention.

Lived Experiences and Fear of Cancer Recurrence Among Survivors of Localized Cutaneous Melanoma

Importance

Most of the rapid increase in cutaneous melanoma incidence in the US has been localized disease that is treated surgically and is associated with high survival rates. However, little is known about the psychological well-being of survivors in the US.

Objective

To explore the lived experiences and fear of cancer recurrence among survivors of localized cutaneous melanoma.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a qualitative and survey-based study that used semistructured interviews and the Fear of Cancer Recurrence Inventory short form (FCRI-SF) survey tool with participants recruited from an academic dermatology practice affiliated with the University of Texas, Austin. Interviews were completed via telephone or in person from August 2021 to September 2022. Each of the 9 items in the FCRI-SF was rated on a 5-point Likert scale, scored from 0 to 4, with a maximum possible score of 36 points. Data analyses were performed from February 2022 to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Semistructured interviews were analyzed for themes and subthemes associated with the lived experiences of survivors of cutaneous melanoma. The FCRI-SF scores were tabulated, with scores of 13 or greater identifying potential cases of clinically significant fear of cancer recurrence.

Results

In all, 51 participants (mean [SD] age, 49.5 [11.7] years; 34 [67%] female and 17 [33%] male) with a history of localized melanoma (stage 0-IIA) completed the interview and survey. Among them, 17 (33%) had survived a diagnosis of stage 0 melanoma, and the remainder, at least 1 invasive melanoma diagnosis (stage I-IIA). Semistructured interviews revealed several themes: (1) emotions surrounding follow-up appointments, (2) intensity of melanoma surveillance, (3) lifestyle changes regarding sun exposure, and (4) thoughts about life and death. Thirty-eight of 51 participants had an FCRI-SF score above the threshold for clinical fear of cancer recurrence.

Conclusions and Relevance

This qualitative and survey-based study found that despite having an excellent prognosis, some survivors of localized melanoma, even those who had stage 0, have high rates of fear of cancer recurrence and intense survivorship experiences that affect their psychological well-being.

Overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to systematically identify and scrutinise published empirical evidence about overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma and examine how frequent overdiagnosis of melanoma is and whether this is related to different types of interventions or diagnostic technologies.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Empirical studies that discussed overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma were eligible, including qualitative and quantitative studies in any type of population, age group and geographical location. We excluded studies that did not include empirical data, studies that only mentioned 'overdiagnosis' without addressing it further and studies that used the term overdiagnosis for cases of misdiagnosis or false positives.We developed the search strategy in cooperation with an information specialist. We searched five databases on 21 April 2022: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO and Cochrane Library.This scoping review adheres to The JBI methodology and Prefered Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses extension for Scoping reviews (PRISMA-ScR). Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts for inclusion and extracted data from the included studies. The data extracted include study characteristics, population details, research question, the context and the study's main results.

RESULTS

Our search resulted in 1134 potentially relevant studies. 35 studies were included: 29 register studies, 3 cohort studies, 1 case-control study, 1 survey study and 1 randomised controlled trial. Most register studies examined trends in melanoma incidence and/or mortality and found a significant increase in incidence between 0.39% and 6.6% annually and a little or no increase in mortality. Three cohort studies and one case-control study showed that skin screening was associated with increased detection of melanoma; especially in situ or thin invasive melanoma. Three studies estimated the degree of overdiagnosis which ranged from 29% to 60%.

CONCLUSIONS

Epidemiological data suggest a high degree of overdiagnosis in malignant melanoma. Studies that examined the association between skin screening and malignant melanoma all found increased detection of melanomas, mostly thin and in situ melanomas, which raises concern about overdiagnosis.

Diagnostic Scrutiny and Patterns of Elevated Cancer Risk: Uncovering Overdiagnosis Through Standardized Incidence Ratios

Certain medical diagnoses and environmental or occupational exposures may be associated with elevated risk of cancer diagnosis, either through causal mechanisms or via increased detection of a subclinical reservoir through increased diagnostic scrutiny (overdiagnosis). The present study aimed to investigate the distribution of elevated cancer risks associated with different diagnoses and exposures. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies published in the last 30 years that examined the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) associated with exposures and risk factors. Meta-SIRs for each cancer type were calculated. The distribution of elevated cancer risks was then compared between cancer types previously reported to be susceptible to overdiagnosis and those that have not been associated with overdiagnosis. The review of 108 studies identified four patterns: SIR generally elevated for 1) only overdiagnosis-susceptible cancer types, 2) both overdiagnosed and non-overdiagnosed cancer types, 3) select cancers in accordance with risk factor or exposure, and 4) SIRs that did not exhibit a distinct increase in any cancer type. The distribution of elevated cancer risks may serve as a signature of whether the underlying risk factor or exposure is a carcinogenic process or a mechanism of increased diagnostic scrutiny uncovering clinically occult diseases. The identification of increased cancer risk should be viewed with caution, and analyzing the pattern of elevated cancer risk distribution can potentially reveal conditions that appear to be cancer risk factors but are in fact the result of exposure to medical surveillance or other healthcare activities that lead to the detection of indolent tumors.