Time- and Region-Specific Season of Birth Effects in Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom

Environmental Influences on Risk and Disease Course in Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis

Pediatric multiple sclerosis (MS) accounts for 3%-10% of all patients diagnosed with MS. Complex interplay between environmental factors impacts the risk for MS and may also affect disease course. Many of these environmental factors are shared with adult-onset MS. However, children with MS are in closer temporal proximity to the biological onset of MS and have less confounding environmental exposures than their adult counterparts. Environmental factors that contribute to MS risk include: geographical latitude, viral exposures, obesity, vitamin deficiencies, smoking, air pollution, perinatal factors, gut microbiome, and diet. More recently, research efforts have shifted to studying the impact of these risk determinants on the clinical course of MS. In this article we will examine relevant environmental risk determinants of pediatric MS and review the current knowledge on how these factors may contribute to pediatric MS disease evolution.

Triggering multiple sclerosis at conception and early gestation: The variation in ultraviolet radiation is as important as its intensity

Background and objectives

Medical science needs to further elucidate the role of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), geographic latitude, and the role of vitamin D in the autoimmune disease multiple sclerosis (MS). We separated several papers into categories out of the thousands published and used their conclusions to explore the relationship between UVR and MS.

Relevance

MS is increasing in incidence, particularly in women where MS is two to three times that in men and particularly severe in African Americans.

Methods

We collected UVR data at our observatory in Central Maine and calculated the average coefficient of variation (CVUVR) for each month for 15 years (2007-2021, inclusive).

Results

The month of conception (MOC) is more important than the month of birth (MOB) in explaining how UVR triggers the variable genetic predisposition to MS. We hypothesize that the rapidly increasing CVUVR is important in preventing an increase in the activity of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) from August to December, which then requires a higher intensity of UVR later in life to suppress the immune system, therefore predisposing to more MS.

Limitations

One observatory at about 44° latitude.

Conclusions

While variation in UVR is important at the MOC if UVR exceeds a threshold (e.g., if the sunspot number equals or is greater than 90, usually at a solar cycle MAX, or at elevations above approximately 3,000 feet above sea level), the MS mitigating vitamin D-VDR mechanism is overwhelmed and the genotoxic effects of higher-intensity UVR promote MS in those with a genetic predisposition.

What is new in this research

This paper offers a new concept in MS research.

FutureMS cohort profile: a Scottish multicentre inception cohort study of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

PURPOSE

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated, neuroinflammatory disease of the central nervous system and in industrialised countries is the most common cause of progressive neurological disability in working age persons. While treatable, there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in disease activity and response to treatment. Currently, the ability to predict at diagnosis who will have a benign, intermediate or aggressive disease course is very limited. There is, therefore, a need for integrated predictive tools to inform individualised treatment decision making.

PARTICIPANTS

Established with the aim of addressing this need for individualised predictive tools, FutureMS is a nationally representative, prospective observational cohort study of 440 adults with a new diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS living in Scotland at the time of diagnosis between May 2016 and March 2019.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The study aims to explore the pathobiology and determinants of disease heterogeneity in MS and combines detailed clinical phenotyping with imaging, genetic and biomarker metrics of disease activity and progression. Recruitment, baseline assessment and follow-up at year 1 is complete. Here, we describe the cohort design and present a profile of the participants at baseline and 1 year of follow-up.

FUTURE PLANS

A third follow-up wave for the cohort has recently begun at 5 years after first visit and a further wave of follow-up is funded for year 10. Longer-term follow-up is anticipated thereafter.

Prediction of Multiple sclerosis disease using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study

Introduction

Hamedan Province is one of Iran’s high-risk regions for Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Early diagnosis of MS based on an accurate system can control the disease. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of four machine learning techniques with traditional methods for predicting MS patients.

Methods

The study used information regarding 200 patients through a case-control study conducted in Hamadan, Western Iran, from 2013 to 2015. The performance of six classifiers was used to compare their performance in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) and total accuracy.

Results

Random Forest (RF) model illustrated better performance among other models in both scenarios. It had greater specificity (0.67), PPV (0.68) and total accuracy (0.68). The most influential diagnostic factors for MS were age, birth season and gender.

Conclusions

Our findings showed that despite all the six methods performed almost similarly, the RF model performed slightly better in terms of different criteria in prediction accuracy. Accordingly, this approach is an effective classifier for predicting MS in the early stage and control the disease.

Seasonal Variations in Macrophages/Microglia Underlie Changes in the Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis Severity

Both immune and neurodegenerative mechanisms underlie multiple sclerosis (MS) and its animal model, experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). MS/EAE are triggered by encephalitogenic immune cells, including Th1 and Th17 cells, whereas T regulatory (Treg) cells are involved in inflammation resolution. Pro-inflammatory macrophages/microglia also play a deleterious role in the disease. Seasonal variations in MS relapses, active lesions, and pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokine levels have been described in MS patients and have been related with both perinatal and adult exposure to sunlight and other environmental factors. However, some data in EAE mice suggest that these variations might be, at least partially, endogenously determined. Thus, our objective was to study the effect of the season of birth and disease induction on the course of EAE, and immune cell infiltration in the central nervous system (CNS) in myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG_35-55)-induced EAE in 8 weeks old, female C57BL/6N mice maintained under constant, controlled conditions. EAE severity as well as pathogenic (Th1, Th17, macrophages/microglia) and protective (Treg) subsets was found to vary according to the season of birth or of EAE induction. Summer-born or summer-immunized animals developed a milder disease, which coincided with variations in numbers of T effector/regulatory subsets, and significantly low numbers of macrophages/microglia. These results suggest that endogenous rhythms in immune responses might cause seasonal variations in EAE severity, and, maybe, in the course of MS, and that they might be related to macrophages/microglia.

Seasonal distribution of attacks in aquaporin-4 antibody disease and myelin-oligodendrocyte antibody disease

BACKGROUND

Seasonal variation in incidence and exacerbations has been reported for neuroinflammatory conditions such as multiple sclerosis and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM). It is unknown whether seasonality also influences aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-Ab) disease and myelin-oligodendrocyte antibody (MOG-Ab) disease.

OBJECTIVE

We examined the seasonal distribution of attacks in AQP4-Ab disease and MOG-Ab disease.

METHODS

Observational study using data prospectively recorded from three cohorts in the United Kingdom.

RESULTS

There was no clear seasonal variation in AQP4-Ab or MOG-Ab attacks for either the onset attack nor subsequent relapses. In both groups, the proportion of attacks manifesting with each of the main phenotypes (optic neuritis, transverse myelitis, ADEM/ADEM-like) appeared stable across the year. This study is the first to examine seasonal distribution of MOG-Ab attacks and the largest in AQP4-Ab disease so far.

CONCLUSION

Lack of seasonal distribution in AQP4-Ab and MOG-Ab disease may argue against environment factors playing a role in the aetiopathogenesis of these conditions.

The Influence of Vitamin D on Neurodegeneration and Neurological Disorders: A Rationale for its Physio-pathological Actions

Vitamin D is a steroid hormone implicated in the regulation of neuronal integrity and many brain functions. Its influence, as a nutrient and a hormone, on the physiopathology of the most common neurodegenerative diseases is continuously emphasized by new studies. This review addresses what is currently known about the action of vitamin D on the nervous system and neurodegenerative diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. Further vitamin D research is necessary to understand how the action of this "neuroactive" steroid can help to optimize the prevention and treatment of several neurological diseases.

EFFECT size or statistical significance, where to put your money

There is continuing controversy over the excessive reliance on p-values. This paper elaborates on the use of p-values, points out their utility and reminds that there is no single measure that is a universal measure of the value of a study. All measures have their warts and moles, but each has utility. This paper discusses not only p-values but important measures of effect, effect sizes. The over or under interpretation of various measures is cautioned. The p-value is just a function of the summary statistic chosen for the outcome, the sample size and indicates a binary decision about the hypothesis. Using p-values are still OK, but should be coupled with other measures, such as effect sizes. A p-value alone won't get you through an ethics review board, no matter what its value, and it shouldn't get you through a journal review either.

Vitamin D in early life and later risk of multiple sclerosis-A systematic review, meta-analysis

The study examined results from previous studies of early life vitamin D exposure and risk of MS in adulthood, including studies on season or month of birth and of migration. A systematic review was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science databases as well as checking references cited in articles. The quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale and the AMSTAR score. Twenty-eight studies were selected for analysis. Of these, six population studies investigated early life vitamin D exposure and risk of MS, and three found inverse while the remaining found no associations. A consistent seasonal tendency for MS seemed evident from 11/15 studies, finding a reduced occurrence of MS for Northern hemisphere children who were born late autumn, and late fall for children born in the Southern hemisphere. This was also confirmed by pooled analysis of 6/15 studies. Results of the migration studies showed an increased risk of MS if migration from high to low-MS-risk areas had occurred after age 15 years, while risk of MS was reduced for those migrating earlier in life (<15years). A similar, but inverse risk pattern was observed among migrants from low to high-MS-risk areas. One study found an increased risk of MS in the second generation of migrants when migrating from low to high-MS-risk areas. An association between early life vitamin D and later risk of MS seems possible, however evidence is still insufficient to conclude that low vitamin D exposure in early life increases the risk of MS in adulthood.

PROSPERO register number: CRD 42016043229.

Does the environment influence multiple sclerosis pathogenesis via UVB light and/or induction of vitamin D?

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disease of presumed auto-immune origin. Long-standing observations such as the correlation between MS incidence and geographical latitude or the levels of Vitamin D (Vit D) in the serum have implicated the environmental factors UVB radiation and diet in the etiology of the disease. Clinical trials have been conducted and are currently underway to elucidate whether a Vit D enriched diet or treatment with UVB can influence MS incidence, -severity, and -progression, as well as the ideal time point for treatment. This review summarizes the current scientific knowledge to the environmental factors UVB-light and Vit D concerning the clinical aspects of MS in epidemiological studies and clinical trials.

Vitamin D and Multiple Sclerosis: A Comprehensive Review

Numerous observational studies have suggested that there is a correlation between the level of serum vitamin D and MS risk and disease activity. To explore this hypothesis, a literature search of large, prospective, observation studies, epidemiological studies, and studies using new approaches such as Mendelian randomization was conducted. Available data and ongoing research included in this review suggest that the level of serum vitamin D affects the risk of developing MS and also modifies disease activity in MS patients. Newer Mendelian randomization analyses suggest there is a causal relationship between low vitamin D level and the risk of MS. Post-hoc evaluations from two phase 3 studies, BENEFIT and BEYOND, support the findings of observational trials. Study limitations identified in this review recognize the need for larger controlled clinical trials to establish vitamin D supplementation as the standard of care for MS patients. Though there is increasing evidence indicating that lower vitamin D levels are associated with increased risk of MS and with greater clinical and brain MRI activity in established MS, the impact of vitamin D supplementation on MS activity remains inadequately investigated.

Vitamin D and multiple sclerosis: An update

The most recent findings linking exposure to sun and vitamin D insufficiency to multiple sclerosis (MS) are reviewed. Due to insufficient sunshine and changing lifestyles, hypovitaminosis D is widespread in temperate countries. Numerous epidemiological studies have strongly suggested that sunshine and vitamin D insufficiency contributes to MS risk in these countries. Moreover, several large genetic studies in MS patients have recently stated unequivocally that diverse abnormalities involving vitamin D metabolism are related to the risk of the disease. The important implications of such results are discussed here. Then, the interactions of hypovitaminosis D with the other genetic and environmental protective and risk factors, such as the allele HLA DRB1*1501, Epstein-Barr virus infection, obesity, smoking and sexual hormones, are summarized. Vitamin D insufficiency and sufficiency could be a risk and a protective factor, respectively, among many other factors possibly continuously modulating the global MS risk from the mother's pregnancy to the triggering of MS in adulthood. However, many interactions between these different factors occur more particularly between conception and the end of adolescence, which corresponds to the period of maturation of the immune system and thymus and may be related to the dysimmune nature of the disease. The main mechanisms of action of vitamin D in MS appear to be immunomodulatory, involving the various categories of T and B lymphocytes in the general immune system, but neuroprotector and neurotrophic mechanisms could also be exerted at the central nervous system level. Furthermore, several controlled immunological studies performed in MS patients have recently confirmed that vitamin D supplementation has multiple beneficial immunomodulatory effects. However, there is still an enduring absence of major conclusive randomized clinical trials testing vitamin D supplementation in MS patients because of the quasi-insurmountable practical difficulties that exist nowadays in conducting and completing over several years such studies involving the use of a vitamin. Nevertheless, it should be noted that similar robust statistical models used in five different association studies have already predicted a favorable vitamin D effect reducing relapses by 50-70%. If there is now little doubt that vitamin D exerts a beneficial action on the inflammatory component of MS, the results are as yet much less clear for the progressive degenerative component. Lastly, until more information becomes available, vitamin D supplementation of MS patients, using a moderate physiological dose essentially correcting their vitamin insufficiency, is recommended.

Modeling month-season of birth as a risk factor in mouse models of chronic disease: from multiple sclerosis to autoimmune encephalomyelitis

Month-season of birth (M-SOB) is a risk factor in multiple chronic diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS), where the lowest and greatest risk of developing MS coincide with the lowest and highest birth rates, respectively. To determine whether M-SOB effects in such chronic diseases as MS can be experimentally modeled, we examined the effect of M-SOB on susceptibility of C57BL/6J mice to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE). As in MS, mice that were born during the M-SOB with the lowest birth rate were less susceptible to EAE than mice born during the M-SOB with the highest birth rate. We also show that the M-SOB effect on EAE susceptibility is associated with differential production of multiple cytokines/chemokines by neuroantigen-specific T cells that are known to play a role in EAE pathogenesis. Taken together, these results support the existence of an M-SOB effect that may reflect seasonally dependent developmental differences in adaptive immune responses to self-antigens independent of external stimuli, including exposure to sunlight and vitamin D. Moreover, our documentation of an M-SOB effect on EAE susceptibility in mice allows for modeling and detailed analysis of mechanisms that underlie the M-SOB effect in not only MS but in numerous other diseases in which M-SOB impacts susceptibility.-Reynolds, J. D., Case, L. K., Krementsov, D. N., Raza, A., Bartiss, R., Teuscher, C. Modeling month-season of birth as a risk factor in mouse models of chronic disease: from multiple sclerosis to autoimmune encephalomyelitis.