Development and Validation of a Model to Predict Posttraumatic Stress Disorder and Major Depression After a Motor Vehicle Collision

Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

Associations of alcohol and cannabis use with change in posttraumatic stress disorder and depression symptoms over time in recently trauma-exposed individuals

BACKGROUND

Several hypotheses may explain the association between substance use, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and depression. However, few studies have utilized a large multisite dataset to understand this complex relationship. Our study assessed the relationship between alcohol and cannabis use trajectories and PTSD and depression symptoms across 3 months in recently trauma-exposed civilians.

METHODS

In total, 1618 (1037 female) participants provided self-report data on past 30-day alcohol and cannabis use and PTSD and depression symptoms during their emergency department (baseline) visit. We reassessed participant's substance use and clinical symptoms 2, 8, and 12 weeks posttrauma. Latent class mixture modeling determined alcohol and cannabis use trajectories in the sample. Changes in PTSD and depression symptoms were assessed across alcohol and cannabis use trajectories via a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis of variance.

RESULTS

Three trajectory classes (low, high, increasing use) provided the best model fit for alcohol and cannabis use. The low alcohol use class exhibited lower PTSD symptoms at baseline than the high use class; the low cannabis use class exhibited lower PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline than the high and increasing use classes; these symptoms greatly increased at week 8 and declined at week 12. Participants who already use alcohol and cannabis exhibited greater PTSD and depression symptoms at baseline that increased at week 8 with a decrease in symptoms at week 12.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that alcohol and cannabis use trajectories are associated with the intensity of posttrauma psychopathology. These findings could potentially inform the timing of therapeutic strategies.

Development and validation of a machine learning model using electronic health records to predict trauma- and stressor-related psychiatric disorders after hospitalization with sepsis

A significant minority of individuals develop trauma- and stressor-related disorders (TSRD) after surviving sepsis, a life-threatening immune response to infections. Accurate prediction of risk for TSRD can facilitate targeted early intervention strategies, but many existing models rely on research measures that are impractical to incorporate to standard emergency department workflows. To increase the feasibility of implementation, we developed models that predict TSRD in the year after survival from sepsis using only electronic health records from the hospitalization (n = 217,122 hospitalizations from 2012-2015). The optimal model was evaluated in a temporally independent prospective test sample (n = 128,783 hospitalizations from 2016-2017), where patients in the highest-risk decile accounted for nearly one-third of TSRD cases. Our approach demonstrates that risk for TSRD after sepsis can be stratified without additional assessment burden on clinicians and patients, which increases the likelihood of model implementation in hospital settings.

Epigenetic aging and PTSD outcomes in the immediate aftermath of trauma

BACKGROUND

Psychological trauma exposure and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been associated with advanced epigenetic age. However, whether epigenetic aging measured at the time of trauma predicts the subsequent development of PTSD outcomes is unknown. Moreover, the neural substrates underlying posttraumatic outcomes associated with epigenetic aging are unclear.

METHODS

We examined a multi-ancestry cohort of women and men (n = 289) who presented to the emergency department (ED) after trauma. Blood DNA was collected at ED presentation, and EPIC DNA methylation arrays were used to assess four widely used metrics of epigenetic aging (HorvathAge, HannumAge, PhenoAge, and GrimAge). PTSD symptoms were evaluated longitudinally at the time of ED presentation and over the ensuing 6 months. Structural and functional neuroimaging was performed 2 weeks after trauma.

RESULTS

After covariate adjustment and correction for multiple comparisons, advanced ED GrimAge predicted increased risk for 6-month probable PTSD diagnosis. Secondary analyses suggested that the prediction of PTSD by GrimAge was driven by worse trajectories for intrusive memories and nightmares. Advanced ED GrimAge was also associated with reduced volume of the whole amygdala and specific amygdala subregions, including the cortico-amygdaloid transition and the cortical and accessory basal nuclei.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings shed new light on the relation between biological aging and trauma-related phenotypes, suggesting that GrimAge measured at the time of trauma predicts PTSD trajectories and is associated with relevant brain alterations. Furthering these findings has the potential to enhance early prevention and treatment of posttraumatic psychiatric sequelae.

Utility of the Healthy Aging Brain Care Monitor as a Patient-Reported Symptom Monitoring Tool in Older Injury Survivors

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Healthy Aging Brain Care Monitor (HABC-M) as a patient-reported outcome tool to measure cognitive, functional, and psychological symptoms among older adults who sustained non-neurologic injuries requiring hospital admission.

METHODS

We used data from a multicenter randomized controlled trial to evaluate the utility of the HABC-M Self-Report version in older patients recovering from traumatic injuries. A total of 143 patients without cognitive impairment were included in the analysis. Cronbach's alpha was used to measure the internal consistency, and Spearman's rank correlation test was used to evaluate the relationship of the HABC-M with standard measures of cognitive, functional, and psychological outcomes.

RESULTS

The HABC-M subscales and the total scale showed satisfactory internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.64 to 0.77). The HABC-M cognitive subscale did not correlate with the Mini-Mental State Examination. The HABC-M functional and psychological subscales correlated with corresponding standard reference measures (|rs| = 0.24-0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

The HABC-M Self-Report version is a practical alternative to administering multiple surveys to monitor functional and psychological sequelae in older patients recovering from recent non-neurologic injuries. Its clinical application may facilitate personalized, multidisciplinary care coordination among older trauma survivors without cognitive impairment.

Mental health symptoms are comparable in patients hospitalized with acute illness and patients hospitalized with injury

BACKGROUND

High rates of mental health symptoms such as depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been found in patients hospitalized with traumatic injuries, but little is known about these problems in patients hospitalized with acute illnesses. A similarly high prevalence of mental health problems in patients hospitalized with acute illness would have significant public health implications because acute illness and injury are both common, and mental health problems of depression, anxiety, and PTSD are highly debilitating.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In patients admitted after emergency care for Acute Illness (N = 656) or Injury (N = 661) to three hospitals across the United States, symptoms of depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic stress were compared acutely (Acute Stress Disorder) and two months post-admission (PTSD). Patients were ethnically/racially diverse and 54% female. No differences were found between the Acute Illness and Injury groups in levels of any symptoms acutely or two months post-admission. At two months post-admission, at least one symptom type was elevated for 37% of the Acute Illness group and 39% of the Injury group. Within racial/ethnic groups, PTSD symptoms were higher in Black patients with injuries than for Black patients with acute illness. A disproportionate number of Black patients had been assaulted.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found comparable levels of mental health sequelae in patients hospitalized after emergency care for acute illness as in patients hospitalized after emergency care for injury. Findings of significantly higher symptoms and interpersonal violence injuries in Black patients with injury suggest that there may be important and actionable differences in mental health sequelae across ethnic/racial identities and/or mechanisms of injury or illness. Routine screening for mental health risk for all patients admitted after emergency care could foster preventive care and reduce ethnic/racial disparities in mental health responses to acute illness or injury.

Racial/ethnic differences in acute and longer-term posttraumatic symptoms following traumatic injury or illness

BACKGROUND

Racial/ethnic differences in mental health outcomes after a traumatic event have been reported. Less is known about factors that explain these differences. We examined whether pre-, peri-, and post-trauma risk factors explained racial/ethnic differences in acute and longer-term posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and anxiety symptoms in patients hospitalized following traumatic injury or illness.

METHODS

PTSD, depression, and anxiety symptoms were assessed during hospitalization and 2 and 6 months later among 1310 adult patients (6.95% Asian, 14.96% Latinx, 23.66% Black, 4.58% multiracial, and 49.85% White). Individual growth curve models examined racial/ethnic differences in PTSD, depression, and anxiety symptoms at each time point and in their rate of change over time, and whether pre-, peri-, and post-trauma risk factors explained these differences.

RESULTS

Latinx, Black, and multiracial patients had higher acute PTSD symptoms than White patients, which remained higher 2 and 6 months post-hospitalization for Black and multiracial patients. PTSD symptoms were also found to improve faster among Latinx than White patients. Risk factors accounted for most racial/ethnic differences, although Latinx patients showed lower 6-month PTSD symptoms and Black patients lower acute and 2-month depression and anxiety symptoms after accounting for risk factors. Everyday discrimination, financial stress, past mental health problems, and social constraints were related to these differences.

CONCLUSION

Racial/ethnic differences in risk factors explained most differences in acute and longer-term PTSD, depression, and anxiety symptoms. Understanding how these risk factors relate to posttraumatic symptoms could help reduce disparities by facilitating early identification of patients at risk for mental health problems.

Development of a model to predict antidepressant treatment response for depression among Veterans

BACKGROUND

Only a limited number of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to a first course of antidepressant medication (ADM). We investigated the feasibility of creating a baseline model to determine which of these would be among patients beginning ADM treatment in the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

METHODS

A 2018-2020 national sample of n = 660 VHA patients receiving ADM treatment for MDD completed an extensive baseline self-report assessment near the beginning of treatment and a 3-month self-report follow-up assessment. Using baseline self-report data along with administrative and geospatial data, an ensemble machine learning method was used to develop a model for 3-month treatment response defined by the Quick Inventory of Depression Symptomatology Self-Report and a modified Sheehan Disability Scale. The model was developed in a 70% training sample and tested in the remaining 30% test sample.

RESULTS

In total, 35.7% of patients responded to treatment. The prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (s.e.) of 0.66 (0.04) in the test sample. A strong gradient in probability (s.e.) of treatment response was found across three subsamples of the test sample using training sample thresholds for high [45.6% (5.5)], intermediate [34.5% (7.6)], and low [11.1% (4.9)] probabilities of response. Baseline symptom severity, comorbidity, treatment characteristics (expectations, history, and aspects of current treatment), and protective/resilience factors were the most important predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Although these results are promising, parallel models to predict response to alternative treatments based on data collected before initiating treatment would be needed for such models to help guide treatment selection.

Derivation and validation of risk prediction for posttraumatic stress symptoms following trauma exposure

BACKGROUND

Posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) are common following traumatic stress exposure (TSE). Identification of individuals with PTSS risk in the early aftermath of TSE is important to enable targeted administration of preventive interventions. In this study, we used baseline survey data from two prospective cohort studies to identify the most influential predictors of substantial PTSS.

METHODS

Self-identifying black and white American women and men (n = 1546) presenting to one of 16 emergency departments (EDs) within 24 h of motor vehicle collision (MVC) TSE were enrolled. Individuals with substantial PTSS (⩾33, Impact of Events Scale - Revised) 6 months after MVC were identified via follow-up questionnaire. Sociodemographic, pain, general health, event, and psychological/cognitive characteristics were collected in the ED and used in prediction modeling. Ensemble learning methods and Monte Carlo cross-validation were used for feature selection and to determine prediction accuracy. External validation was performed on a hold-out sample (30% of total sample).

RESULTS

Twenty-five percent (n = 394) of individuals reported PTSS 6 months following MVC. Regularized linear regression was the top performing learning method. The top 30 factors together showed good reliability in predicting PTSS in the external sample (Area under the curve = 0.79 ± 0.002). Top predictors included acute pain severity, recovery expectations, socioeconomic status, self-reported race, and psychological symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

These analyses add to a growing literature indicating that influential predictors of PTSS can be identified and risk for future PTSS estimated from characteristics easily available/assessable at the time of ED presentation following TSE.

CpG Methylation Levels in HPA Axis Genes Predict Chronic Pain Outcomes Following Trauma Exposure

Chronic post-traumatic musculoskeletal pain (CPTP) is a common outcome of traumatic stress exposure. Biological factors that influence the development of CPTP are poorly understood, though current evidence indicates that the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis plays a critical role in its development. Little is known about molecular mechanisms underlying this association, including epigenetic mechanisms. Here, we assessed whether peritraumatic DNA methylation levels at 248 5'-C-phosphate-G-3' (CpG) sites in HPA axis genes (FKBP5, NR3C1, CRH, CRHR1, CRHR2, CRHBP, POMC) predict CPTP and whether identified CPTP-associated methylation levels influence expression of those genes. Using participant samples and data collected from trauma survivors enrolled into longitudinal cohort studies (n = 290), we used linear mixed modeling to assess the relationship between peritraumatic blood-based CpG methylation levels and CPTP. A total of 66 (27%) of the 248 CpG sites assessed in these models statistically significantly predicted CPTP, with the three most significantly associated CpG sites originating from the POMC gene region (ie, cg22900229 [β = .124, P < .001], cg16302441 [β = .443, P < .001], cg01926269 [β = .130, P < .001]). Among the genes analyzed, both POMC (z = 2.36, P = .018) and CRHBP (z = 4.89, P < .001) were enriched in CpG sites significantly associated with CPTP. Further, POMC expression was inversely correlated with methylation levels in a CPTP-dependent manner (6-months NRS<4: r = -.59, P < .001; 6-months NRS ≥ 4: r = -.18, P = .2312). Our results suggest that methylation of HPA axis genes including POMC and CRHBP predict risk for and may contribute to vulnerability to CPTP. PERSPECTIVE: Peritraumatic blood levels of CpG methylation sites in HPA axis genes, particularly CpG sites in the POMC gene, predict CPTP development. This data substantially advances our understanding of epigenetic predictors and potential mediators of CPTP, a highly common, morbid, and hard-to-treat form of chronic pain.

Early prediction of mental health problems following military deployment: Integrating pre- and post-deployment factors in neural network models

Military personnel deployed to war zones are at increased risk of mental health problems such as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or depression. Early pre- or post-deployment identification of those at highest risk of such problems is crucial to target intervention to those in need. However, sufficiently accurate models predicting objectively assessed mental health outcomes have not been put forward. In a sample consisting of all Danish military personnel who deployed to war zones for the first (N = 27,594), second (N = 11,083) and third (N = 5,161) time between 1992 and 2013, we apply neural networks to predict psychiatric diagnoses or use of psychotropic medicine in the years following deployment. Models are based on pre-deployment registry data alone or on pre-deployment registry data in combination with post-deployment questionnaire data on deployment experiences or early post-deployment reactions. Further, we identified the most central predictors of importance for the first, second, and third deployment. Models based on pre-deployment registry data alone had lower accuracy (AUCs ranging from 0.61 (third deployment) to 0.67 (first deployment)) than models including pre- and post-deployment data (AUCs ranging from 0.70 (third deployment) to 0.74 (first deployment)). Age at deployment, deployment year and previous physical trauma were important across deployments. Post-deployment predictors varied across deployments but included deployment exposures as well as early post-deployment symptoms. The results suggest that neural network models combining pre- and early post-deployment data can be utilized for screening tools that identify individuals at risk of severe mental health problems in the years following military deployment.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning Prediction Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Military Deployment

Importance

Military deployment involves significant risk for life-threatening experiences that can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Accurate predeployment prediction of PTSD risk may facilitate the development of targeted intervention strategies to enhance resilience.

Objective

To develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to predict postdeployment PTSD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This diagnostic/prognostic study included 4771 soldiers from 3 US Army brigade combat teams who completed assessments between January 9, 2012, and May 1, 2014. Predeployment assessments occurred 1 to 2 months before deployment to Afghanistan, and follow-up assessments occurred approximately 3 and 9 months post deployment. Machine learning models to predict postdeployment PTSD were developed in the first 2 recruited cohorts using as many as 801 predeployment predictors from comprehensive self-report assessments. In the development phase, cross-validated performance metrics and predictor parsimony were considered to select an optimal model. Next, the selected model's performance was evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and expected calibration error in a temporally and geographically distinct cohort. Data analyses were performed from August 1 to November 30, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Posttraumatic stress disorder diagnosis was assessed by clinically calibrated self-report measures. Participants were weighted in all analyses to address potential biases related to cohort selection and follow-up nonresponse.

Results

This study included 4771 participants (mean [SD] age, 26.9 [6.2] years), 4440 (94.7%) of whom were men. In terms of race and ethnicity, 144 participants (2.8%) identified as American Indian or Alaska Native, 242 (4.8%) as Asian, 556 (13.3%) as Black or African American, 885 (18.3%) as Hispanic, 106 (2.1%) as Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander, 3474 (72.2%) as White, and 430 (8.9%) as other or unknown race or ethnicity; participants could identify as of more than 1 race or ethnicity. A total of 746 participants (15.4%) met PTSD criteria post deployment. In the development phase, models had comparable performance (log loss range, 0.372-0.375; area under the curve range, 0.75-0.76). A gradient-boosting machine with 58 core predictors was selected over an elastic net with 196 predictors and a stacked ensemble of ML models with 801 predictors. In the independent test cohort, the gradient-boosting machine had an area under the curve of 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.77) and low expected calibration error of 0.032 (95% CI, 0.020-0.046). Approximately one-third of participants with the highest risk accounted for 62.4% (95% CI, 56.5%-67.9%) of the PTSD cases. Core predictors cut across 17 distinct domains: stressful experiences, social network, substance use, childhood or adolescence, unit experiences, health, injuries, irritability or anger, personality, emotional problems, resilience, treatment, anxiety, attention or concentration, family history, mood, and religion.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this diagnostic/prognostic study of US Army soldiers, an ML model was developed to predict postdeployment PTSD risk with self-reported information collected before deployment. The optimal model showed good performance in a temporally and geographically distinct validation sample. These results indicate that predeployment stratification of PTSD risk is feasible and may facilitate the development of targeted prevention and early intervention strategies.

Development of a model to predict psychotherapy response for depression among Veterans

BACKGROUND

Fewer than half of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) respond to psychotherapy. Pre-emptively informing patients of their likelihood of responding could be useful as part of a patient-centered treatment decision-support plan.

METHODS

This prospective observational study examined a national sample of 807 patients beginning psychotherapy for MDD at the Veterans Health Administration. Patients completed a self-report survey at baseline and 3-months follow-up (data collected 2018-2020). We developed a machine learning (ML) model to predict psychotherapy response at 3 months using baseline survey, administrative, and geospatial variables in a 70% training sample. Model performance was then evaluated in the 30% test sample.

RESULTS

32.0% of patients responded to treatment after 3 months. The best ML model had an AUC (SE) of 0.652 (0.038) in the test sample. Among the one-third of patients ranked by the model as most likely to respond, 50.0% in the test sample responded to psychotherapy. In comparison, among the remaining two-thirds of patients, <25% responded to psychotherapy. The model selected 43 predictors, of which nearly all were self-report variables.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with MDD could pre-emptively be informed of their likelihood of responding to psychotherapy using a prediction tool based on self-report data. This tool could meaningfully help patients and providers in shared decision-making, although parallel information about the likelihood of responding to alternative treatments would be needed to inform decision-making across multiple treatments.

Predicting the need for intubation within 3 h in the neonatal intensive care unit using a multimodal deep neural network

Respiratory distress is a common chief complaint in neonates admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. Despite the increasing use of non-invasive ventilation in neonates with respiratory difficulty, some of them require advanced airway support. Delayed intubation is associated with increased morbidity, particularly in urgent unplanned cases. Early and accurate prediction of the need for intubation may provide more time for preparation and increase safety margins by avoiding the late intubation at high-risk infants. This study aimed to predict the need for intubation within 3 h in neonates initially managed with non-invasive ventilation for respiratory distress during the first 48 h of life using a multimodal deep neural network. We developed a multimodal deep neural network model to simultaneously analyze four time-series data collected at 1-h intervals and 19 variables including demographic, physiological and laboratory parameters. Evaluating the dataset of 128 neonates with respiratory distress who underwent non-invasive ventilation, our model achieved an area under the curve of 0.917, sensitivity of 85.2%, and specificity of 89.2%. These findings demonstrate promising results for the multimodal model in predicting neonatal intubation within 3 h.

Development and validation of a brief screener for posttraumatic stress disorder risk in emergency medical settings

OBJECTIVE

Predicting risk of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the acute care setting is challenging given the pace and acute care demands in the emergency department (ED) and the infeasibility of using time-consuming assessments. Currently, no accurate brief screening for long-term PTSD risk is routinely used in the ED. One instrument widely used in the ED is the 27-item Immediate Stress Reaction Checklist (ISRC). The aim of this study was to develop a short screener using a machine learning approach and to investigate whether accurate PTSD prediction in the ED can be achieved with substantially fewer items than the IRSC.

METHOD

This prospective longitudinal cohort study examined the development and validation of a brief screening instrument in two independent samples, a model development sample (N = 253) and an external validation sample (N = 93). We used a feature selection algorithm to identify a minimal subset of features of the ISRC and tested this subset in a predictive model to investigate if we can accurately predict long-term PTSD outcomes.

RESULTS

We were able to identify a reduced subset of 5 highly predictive features of the ISRC in the model development sample (AUC = 0.80), and we were able to validate those findings in the external validation sample (AUC = 0.84) to discriminate non-remitting vs. resilient trajectories.

CONCLUSION

This study developed and validated a brief 5-item screener in the ED setting, which may help to improve the diagnostic process of PTSD in the acute care setting and help ED clinicians plan follow-up care when patients are still in contact with the healthcare system. This could reduce the burden on patients and decrease the risk of chronic PTSD.

Derivation and Validation of a Brief Emergency Department-Based Prediction Tool for Posttraumatic Stress After Motor Vehicle Collision

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To derive and initially validate a brief bedside clinical decision support tool that identifies emergency department (ED) patients at high risk of substantial, persistent posttraumatic stress symptoms after a motor vehicle collision.

METHODS

Derivation (n=1,282, 19 ED sites) and validation (n=282, 11 separate ED sites) data were obtained from adults prospectively enrolled in the Advancing Understanding of RecOvery afteR traumA study who were discharged from the ED after motor vehicle collision-related trauma. The primary outcome was substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms at 3 months (Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-5 ≥38). Logistic regression derivation models were evaluated for discriminative ability using the area under the curve and the accuracy of predicted risk probabilities (Brier score). Candidate posttraumatic stress predictors assessed in these models (n=265) spanned a range of sociodemographic, baseline health, peritraumatic, and mechanistic domains. The final model selection was based on performance and ease of administration.

RESULTS

Significant 3-month posttraumatic stress symptoms were common in the derivation (27%) and validation (26%) cohort. The area under the curve and Brier score of the final 8-question tool were 0.82 and 0.14 in the derivation cohort and 0.76 and 0.17 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

This simple 8-question tool demonstrates promise to risk-stratify individuals with substantial posttraumatic stress symptoms who are discharged to home after a motor vehicle collision. Both external validation of this instrument, and work to further develop more accurate tools, are needed. Such tools might benefit public health by enabling the conduct of preventive intervention trials and assisting the growing number of EDs that provide services to trauma survivors aimed at promoting psychological recovery.

Predicting PTSD symptoms in firefighters using a fear-potentiated startle paradigm and machine learning

This study develops a fear-potentiated startle paradigm (FPS) and a machine learning approach to accurately predict PTSD symptoms using electrogram data. A three-phase fear-potentiated startle paradigm was designed to assess the conditioning, generalization, and extinction of fear. Electrooculogram and electrocardiogram signals were collected during the FPS. A total of 1107 Chinese firefighters participated in the study. The Chinese version PCL-C was administered to all subjects. A cutoff of 38 or higher is used to indicate PTSD symptoms. Electrogram features were extracted and selected to build a machine learning model to classify individuals. The machine learning model was 5-fold cross validated. The importance of the selected features was calculated. Classification performance metrics were evaluated for the machine learning model. The machine learning model can identify firefighters with a PCL-C score of 38 or above with sensitivity and specificity both above 0.85 when 5-fold cross validated on a 1107-person sample. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model is 0.93. Features related to fear generalization are found to be the most important. The proposed fear-potentiated startle paradigm and machine learning approach can accurately predict PTSD symptoms in Chinese firefighters, which can improve the screening and diagnosis of PTSD.

Anxiety sensitivity as a transdiagnostic risk factor for trajectories of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the AURORA study

Anxiety sensitivity, or fear of anxious arousal, is cross-sectionally associated with a wide array of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae, including symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatization. The current study utilizes a large-scale, multi-site, prospective study of trauma survivors presenting to emergency departments. Hypotheses tested whether elevated anxiety sensitivity in the immediate posttrauma period is associated with more severe and persistent trajectories of common adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae in the eight weeks posttrauma. Participants from the AURORA study (n = 2,269 recruited from 23 emergency departments) completed self-report assessments over eight weeks posttrauma. Associations between heightened anxiety sensitivity and more severe and/or persistent trajectories of trauma-related symptoms identified by growth mixture modeling were analyzed. Anxiety sensitivity assessed two weeks posttrauma was associated with severe and/or persistent posttraumatic stress, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and somatic symptoms in the eight weeks posttrauma. Effect sizes were in the small to medium range in multivariate models accounting for various demographic, trauma-related, pre-trauma mental health-related, and personality-related factors. Anxiety sensitivity may be a useful transdiagnostic risk factor in the immediate posttraumatic period identifying individuals at risk for the development of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae. Further, considering anxiety sensitivity is malleable via brief intervention, it could be a useful secondary prevention target. Future research should continue to evaluate associations between anxiety sensitivity and trauma-related pathology.

AI-Based Prediction and Prevention of Psychological and Behavioral Changes in Ex-COVID-19 Patients

The COVID-19 pandemic has adverse consequences on human psychology and behavior long after initial recovery from the virus. These COVID-19 health sequelae, if undetected and left untreated, may lead to more enduring mental health problems, and put vulnerable individuals at risk of developing more serious psychopathologies. Therefore, an early distinction of such vulnerable individuals from those who are more resilient is important to undertake timely preventive interventions. The main aim of this article is to present a comprehensive multimodal conceptual approach for addressing these potential psychological and behavioral mental health changes using state-of-the-art tools and means of artificial intelligence (AI). Mental health COVID-19 recovery programs at post-COVID clinics based on AI prediction and prevention strategies may significantly improve the global mental health of ex-COVID-19 patients. Most COVID-19 recovery programs currently involve specialists such as pulmonologists, cardiologists, and neurologists, but there is a lack of psychiatrist care. The focus of this article is on new tools which can enhance the current limited psychiatrist resources and capabilities in coping with the upcoming challenges related to widespread mental health disorders. Patients affected by COVID-19 are more vulnerable to psychological and behavioral changes than non-COVID populations and therefore they deserve careful clinical psychological screening in post-COVID clinics. However, despite significant advances in research, the pace of progress in prevention of psychiatric disorders in these patients is still insufficient. Current approaches for the diagnosis of psychiatric disorders largely rely on clinical rating scales, as well as self-rating questionnaires that are inadequate for comprehensive assessment of ex-COVID-19 patients' susceptibility to mental health deterioration. These limitations can presumably be overcome by applying state-of-the-art AI-based tools in diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of psychiatric disorders in acute phase of disease to prevent more chronic psychiatric consequences.