Genetic analysis of the age at menopause by using estimating equations and Bayesian random effects models

Premature ovarian insufficiency - the need for a genomic map

Premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) is a life-long disorder of heterogeneous etiology, presenting as adolescent primary amenorrhea in its most severe form, with an overall incidence of 1%. Idiopathic POI accounts for up to 70% of women with POI; and genomic, genetic, epidemiological, familial and cohort studies demonstrate a genetic component to this condition. Currently, the only genetic tests routinely performed in non-syndromic POI are FMR1 premutation and cytogenetics, the latter specifically for X-chromosome abnormalities. However, a myriad of genetic aberrations has been identified and implicated, some of which act in a monogenic Mendelian fashion. The presence of multiple genetic aberrations and the complexity of POI genomics are hardly surprising since the embryological formation of the primordial oocyte pool, postnatal oogenesis and folliculogenesis are all highly complex pathways. With this review, the aim is to discuss the current genetic etiologies in the emerging field of POI genomics. Promising candidate genes include STAG3, SYCE1, FIGLA, NOBOX, FSHR, BMP15 and INHA. This area has the potential to progress rapidly in light of advances in genomic technologies. The development of a POI genomic map not only will assist in understanding the underlying molecular mechanisms affecting ovarian function but will also be essential in designing predictive and diagnostic gene panels as well as future novel therapeutic strategies.

Genetic implication of a novel thiamine transporter in human hypertension

OBJECTIVES

This study coupled 2 strategies-trait extremes and genome-wide pooling-to discover a novel blood pressure (BP) locus that encodes a previously uncharacterized thiamine transporter.

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a heritable trait that remains the most potent and widespread cardiovascular risk factor, although details of its genetic determination are poorly understood.

METHODS

Representative genomic deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) pools were created from male and female subjects in the highest- and lowest-fifth percentiles of BP in a primary care population of >50,000 patients. The peak associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms were typed in individual DNA samples, as well as in twins/siblings phenotyped for cardiovascular and autonomic traits. Biochemical properties of the associated transporter were evaluated in cellular assays.

RESULTS

After chip hybridization and calculation of relative allele scores, the peak associations were typed in individual samples, revealing an association between hypertension, systolic BP, and diastolic BP and the previously uncharacterized solute carrier SLC35F3. The BP genetic association at SLC35F3 was validated by meta-analysis in an independent sample from the original source population, as well as the International Consortium for Blood Pressure Genome-Wide Association Studies (across North America and western Europe). Sequence homology to a putative yeast thiamine (vitamin B1) transporter prompted us to express human SLC35F3 in Escherichia coli, which catalyzed [(3)H]-thiamine uptake. SLC35F3 risk-allele homozygotes (T/T) displayed decreased erythrocyte thiamine content on microbiological assay. In twin pairs, the SLC35F3 risk allele predicted heritable cardiovascular traits previously associated with thiamine deficiency, including elevated cardiac stroke volume with decreased vascular resistance, and elevated pressor responses to environmental (cold) stress. Allelic expression imbalance confirmed that cis variation at the human SLC35F3 locus influenced expression of that gene, and the allelic expression imbalance peak coincided with the hypertension peak.

CONCLUSIONS

Novel strategies were coupled to position a new hypertension-susceptibility locus, uncovering a previously unsuspected thiamine transporter whose genetic variants predicted several disturbances in cardiac and autonomic function. The results have implications for the pathogenesis and treatment of systemic hypertension.

Heritable influence of DBH on adrenergic and renal function: twin and disease studies

Background

Elevated sympathetic activity is associated with kidney dysfunction. Here we used twin pairs to probe heritability of GFR and its genetic covariance with other traits.

Methods

We evaluated renal and adrenergic phenotypes in twins. GFR was estimated by CKD-EPI algorithm. Heritability and genetic covariance of eGFR and associated risk traits were estimated by variance-components. Meta-analysis probed reproducibility of DBH genetic effects. Effect of DBH genetic variation on renal disease was tested in the NIDDK-AASK cohort.

Results

Norepinephrine secretion rose across eGFR tertiles while eGFR fell (p<0.0001). eGFR was heritable, at h² = 67.3±4.7% (p = 3.0E-18), as were secretion of norepinephrine (h² = 66.5±5.0%, p = 3.2E-16) and dopamine (h² = 56.5±5.6%, p = 1.8E-13), and eGFR displayed genetic co-determination (covariance) with norepinephrine (ρ_G = −0.557±0.088, p = 1.11E-08) as well as dopamine (ρ_G = −0.223±0.101, p = 2.3E-02). Since dopamine β-hydroxylase (DBH) catalyzes conversion of dopamine to norepinephrine, we studied functional variation at DBH; DBH promoter haplotypes predicted transcriptional activity (p<0.001), plasma DBH (p<0.0001) and norepinephrine (p = 0.0297) secretion; transcriptional activity was inversely (p<0.0001) associated with basal eGFR. Meta-analysis validated DBH haplotype effects on eGFR across 3 samples. In NIDDK-AASK, we established a role for DBH promoter variation in long-term renal decline rate (GFR slope, p = 0.003).

Conclusions

The heritable GFR trait shares genetic determination with catecholamines, suggesting new pathophysiologic, diagnostic and therapeutic approaches towards disorders of GFR as well as CKD. Adrenergic activity may play a role in progressive renal decline, and genetic variation at DBH may assist in profiling subjects for rational preventive treatment.

Human heart rate: heritability of resting and stress values in twin pairs, and influence of genetic variation in the adrenergic pathway at a microribonucleic acid (microrna) motif in the 3'-UTR of cytochrome b561 [corrected]

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to understand the role of genetic variation in the catecholamine biosynthetic pathway for control of human heart rate (HR).

BACKGROUND

Human HR is an integrated cardiovascular trait predictive of morbidity and survival. Because the autonomic pathway exerts rapid control over the heart, we probed the role of heredity in the control of HR, focusing on a component of the autonomic sympathetic pathway already predictive of outflow responses: cytochrome b561 (CYB561), the electron shuttle in catecholamine vesicle membranes for transmitter biosynthesis.

METHODS

We studied hereditary control of HR with the twin pair design, at rest and during environmental (cold) stress. Single nucleotide polymorphism disruption of a microribonucleic acid (microRNA) recognition motif in the human CYB561 3'-UTR was identified computationally, and its differential effect on gene expression was demonstrated in a transfected luciferase reporter/3'-UTR variant. We exposed stem cell-derived human embryoid bodies to the microRNA mimic or antagomir oligonucleotides, and we observed the effects on contraction rate in proto-hearts.

RESULTS

Substantial heritability (h(2)) was demonstrated by using twin pair variance components for both basal/resting HR (h(2) 50.9 ± 6.4% of trait variation, p = 2.47 × 10(-10)) and stress-augmented HR (h(2) 55.1 ± 5.9%, p = 8.79 × 10(-13)), and the 2 HR traits shared genetic determination (genetic covariance ρG 0.747 ± 0.058, p = 2.85 × 10(-9)). CYB561 displayed 1 common genetic variant in the transcript region: A+1485G (rs3087776), in the 3'-UTR, 1485 bp downstream of the termination codon, in a conserved region, with the A-allele ancestral in primates. In a twin/sibling sample (n = 576), A+1485G influenced HR, both at rest (p = 0.010) and after environmental stress (p = 0.002), with the minor (A) allele displaying a recessive effect with lower HR. The effect of A+1485G on HR was extended by meta-analysis into 2 additional population samples (total n = 2,579), and the influence remained directionally consistent and significant (p = 0.007). A+1485G disrupted a microRNA (human microribonucleic acid-1294 [hsa-miR-1294]) recognition motif in the 3'-UTR, as demonstrated by a transfected luciferase reporter/human 3'-UTR variant system in 2 different neuronal/neuroendocrine cell types. The microRNA effect was further documented by cotransfection of an hsa-miR-1294 mimic, yielding an exaggerated decline in expression of the A-allele (better match) reporter (p = 4.3 × 10(-5)). Similar findings of differential 3'-UTR allelic susceptibility to hsa-miR-1294 were noted during expression of the full-length human CYB561 messenger ribonucleic acid with its cognate 3'-UTR. Finally, exposure of stem cell-derived human embryoid bodies to hsa-miR-1294 mimic or antagomir oligonucleotides yielded directionally opposite effects on contraction rate in proto-hearts.

CONCLUSIONS

HR is a substantially heritable trait, with genetic influence by variation in the adrenergic pathway, here shown for messenger ribonucleic acid translational control at the CYB561 step of transmitter formation. The results have implications for potentially modifiable autonomic pathways that influence this risk trait in the population.

Neuropeptide Y (NPY): genetic variation in the human promoter alters glucocorticoid signaling, yielding increased NPY secretion and stress responses

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to understand whether genetic variation at the Neuropeptide Y (NPY) locus governs secretion and stress responses in vivo as well as NPY gene expression in sympathochromaffin cells.

BACKGROUND

The NPY is a potent pressor peptide co-released with catecholamines during stress by sympathetic axons. Genome-wide linkage on NPY secretion identified a LOD (logarithm of the odds ratio) peak spanning the NPY locus on chromosome 7p15.

METHODS

Our approach began with genomics (linkage and polymorphism determination), extended into NPY genetic control of heritable stress traits in twin pairs, established transcriptional mechanisms in transfected chromaffin cells, and concluded with observations on blood pressure (BP) in the population.

RESULTS

Systematic polymorphism tabulation at NPY (by re-sequencing across the locus: promoter, 4 exons, exon/intron borders, and untranslated regions; on 2n = 160 chromosomes of diverse biogeographic ancestries) identified 16 variants, of which 5 were common. We then studied healthy twin/sibling pairs (n = 399 individuals), typing 6 polymorphisms spanning the locus. Haplotype and single nucleotide polymorphism analyses indicated that proximal promoter variant ∇-880Δ (2-bp TG/-, Ins/Del, rs3037354) minor/Δ allele was associated with several heritable (h(2)) stress traits: higher NPY secretion (h(2) = 73 ± 4%) as well as greater BP response to environmental (cold) stress, and higher basal systemic vascular resistance. Association of ∇-880Δ and plasma NPY was replicated in an independent sample of 361 healthy young men, with consistent allelic effects; genetic variation at NPY also associated with plasma NPY in another independent series of 2,212 individuals derived from Australia twin pairs. Effects of allele -880Δ to increase NPY expression were directionally coordinate in vivo (on human traits) and in cells (transfected NPY promoter/luciferase reporter activity). Promoter -880Δ interrupts a novel glucocorticoid response element motif, an effect confirmed in chromaffin cells by site-directed mutagenesis on the transfected promoter, with differential glucocorticoid stimulation of the motif as well as alterations in electrophoretic mobility shifts. The same -880Δ allele also conferred risk for hypertension and accounted for approximately 4.5/approximately 2.1 mm Hg systolic BP/diastolic BP in a population sample from BP extremes.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that common genetic variation at the NPY locus, especially in proximal promoter ∇-880Δ, disrupts glucocorticoid signaling to influence NPY transcription and secretion, raising systemic vascular resistance and early heritable responses to environmental stress, eventuating in elevated resting BP in the population. The results point to new molecular strategies for probing autonomic control of the human circulation and ultimately susceptibility to and pathogenesis of cardiovascular and neuropsychiatric disease states.

Genetic variation within a metabolic motif in the chromogranin a promoter: pleiotropic influence on cardiometabolic risk traits in twins

BACKGROUND

The cardiometabolic syndrome comprised of multiple correlated traits, but its origin is incompletely understood. Chromogranin A (CHGA) is required for formation of the catecholamine secretory pathway in sympathochromaffin cells. In twin pair studies, we found that CHGA traits aggregated with body mass index (BMI), as well as its biochemical determinant leptin. METHODS Here we used the twin method to probe the role of heredity in generating such risk traits, and then investigated the role of risk-trait-associated CHGA promoter genetic variation in transfected chromaffin cells. Trait heritability (h(2)) and shared genetic determination among traits (pleiotropy, genetic covariance, ρ(G)) were estimated by variance components in twin pairs.

RESULTS

CHGA, BMI, and leptin each displayed substantial h(2), and the traits also aggregated with several features of the metabolic syndrome (e.g., insulin resistance, blood pressure (BP), hypertension, catecholamines, and C-reactive protein (CRP)). Twin studies demonstrated genetic covariance (pleiotropy, ρ(G)) for CHGA, BMI, and leptin with other metabolic traits (insulin resistance, BP, and CRP). We therefore investigated the CHGA locus for mechanisms of codetermination with such metabolic traits. A common functional variant in the human CHGA promoter (G-462A, rs9658634, minor allele frequency ~21%) was associated with leptin and CRP secretion, as well as BMI, especially in women; marker-on-trait effects on BMI were replicated across twin populations on two continents. In CHGA promoter/luciferase reporter plasmids transfected into chromaffin cells, G-462A alleles differed markedly in reporter expression. The G-462A variant disrupted predicted transcriptional control by a PPARγ/RXRα motif and costimulation by PPARγ/RXRα and their cognate ligands, differentially activated the two alleles. During chromatin immunoprecipitation, endogenous PPARγ bound the motif.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple features of the metabolic syndrome are thus under joint (pleiotropic) genetic determination, with CHGA as one such contributory locus: a common polymorphism in the promoter (G-462A) of CHGA predicts such heritable metabolic traits as BMI and leptin. CHGA promoter variant G-462A was not only associated with such metabolic traits but also disrupted a PPARγ/RXRα motif and responded differentially to characteristic trans-activators of that motif. The results suggest novel links between the catecholaminergic system and risk for the metabolic syndrome as well as systemic hypertension.

Factors associated with age of onset and type of menopause in a cohort of UK women

OBJECTIVE

We sought to describe the pattern of age at menopause and factors associated with type of menopause.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a prospective cohort study of 5113 postmenopausal health survey respondents in the Royal College of General Practitioners' Oral Contraception Study. Logistic regression was used to evaluate associations between sociodemographics, lifestyle, and medical history and menopause type.

RESULTS

Median age at natural menopause (n = 3650) was 49.0 years (interquartile range, 45.0-51.0), and at surgical menopause (n = 1463) was 42.4 years (38.0-46.4). Early natural menopause was associated with smoking, ever-use of oral contraception, sterilization, and history of endometriosis (all increased odds ratios) and ever-use of hormone replacement therapy (decreased). Surgical menopause was associated with manual social class, sterilization, and having a history of endometriosis, menorrhagia, or painful menstruation (all increased), and ever-use of hormone replacement therapy (decreased).

CONCLUSION

Age at natural menopause was younger in this cohort than in other studies. More associations were found for surgical menopause than early natural menopause.

Early inflammatory and metabolic changes in association with AGTR1 polymorphisms in prehypertensive subjects

BACKGROUND

The Seventh Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure in 2003 created a prehypertension category for persons with blood pressures ranging from systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 120-139 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure (DBP) from 80 to 89 mm Hg, due to increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

METHODS

Our study utilized the University of California-San Diego (UCSD) Twin Hypertension Cohort. We measured comprehensive plasma cholesterol levels and metabolic (glucose, insulin, leptin) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), free fatty acids) to determine the differences between normotensive and prehypertensive subjects. Additionally, we determined whether angiotensin II receptor type-1 (AGTR1) polymorphisms, previously associated with hypertension, could predict prehypertension.

RESULTS

A total of 455 white subjects were included in the study (mean age 37.1 years). Prehypertensive subjects were older with greater body mass index (BMI) than the normotensives, and after adjusting for sex and age, had greater plasma glucose, insulin, and IL-6. The common AGTR1 A1166C (rs5186) polymorphism in the 3'-UTR region, particularly the presence of the 1166C allele, which fails to downregulate gene expression, predicted greater likelihood of being in the prehypertension group and higher SBP. A lesser-studied polymorphism in intron-2 of AGTR1 (A/G; rs2276736) was associated with plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and apolipoprotein A-1. In a subgroup analysis of nonobese subjects (N = 405), similar associations were noted.

CONCLUSION

Prehypertensive subjects already exhibit early pathophysiologic changes putting them at risk of future cardiovascular disease, and AGTR1 may also contribute to this increased risk. Further investigation is needed to confirm these findings and the precise molecular mechanisms of action.

Estimating fetal and maternal genetic contributions to premature birth from multiparous pregnancy histories of twins using MCMC and maximum-likelihood approaches

The analysis of genetic and environmental contributions to preterm birth is not straightforward in family studies, as etiology could involve both maternal and fetal genes. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are presented as a flexible approach for defining user-specified covariance structures to handle multiple random effects and hierarchical dependencies inherent in children of twin (COT) studies of pregnancy outcomes. The proposed method is easily modified to allow for the study of gestational age as a continuous trait and as a binary outcome reflecting the presence or absence of preterm birth. Estimation of fetal and maternal genetic factors and the effect of the environment are demonstrated using MCMC methods implemented in WinBUGS and maximum likelihood methods in a Virginia COT sample comprising 7,061 births. In summary, although the contribution of maternal and fetal genetic factors was supported using both outcomes, additional births and/or extended relationships are required to precisely estimate both genetic effects simultaneously. We anticipate the flexibility of MCMC methods to handle increasingly complex models to be of particular relevance for the study of birth outcomes.

Dopamine D1 receptor (DRD1) genetic polymorphism: pleiotropic effects on heritable renal traits

Because dopamine D(1) receptors (DRD1) influence renal sodium transport and vascular hemodynamics, we examined whether genetic polymorphisms play a role in renal function. We conducted polymorphism discovery across the DRD1 open reading frame and its 5'-UTR and then performed association studies with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), plasma creatinine (pCr), and fractional excretion of uric acid (FeUA). We used a twin/family group of 428 subjects from 195 families and a replication cohort of 677 patients from the Kaiser health-care organization sampled from the lower percentiles of diastolic blood pressures. Although the coding region lacked common non-synonymous variants, we identified two polymorphisms in the DRD1 5'-UTR (G-94A, A-48G) that occurred with frequencies of 15 and 30%, respectively. In the twin/family study, renal traits were highly heritable, such that DRD1 G-94A significantly associated with eGFR, pCr, and FeUA. Homozygotes for the G-94A minor allele (A/A) exhibited lower eGFR, higher pCr, and lower FeUA. No effects were noted for DRD1 A-48G. Patients in the Kaiser group had similar effects of G-94A on eGFR and pCr. Kidney cells transfected with the -94A variant but not the wild type vectors had increased receptor density. Because the -94A allele is common and may reduce glomerular capillary hydrostatic pressure, G-94A profiling may aid in predicting survival of renal function in patients with progressive renal disease.

Chromogranin A regulates renal function by triggering Weibel-Palade body exocytosis

Chromogranin A (CHGA), a protein released from secretory granules of chromaffin cells and sympathetic nerves, triggers endothelin-1 release from endothelial cells. CHGA polymorphisms associate with an increased risk for ESRD, but whether altered CHGA-endothelium interactions may explain this association is unknown. Here, CHGA led to the release of endothelin-1 and Weibel-Palade body exocytosis in cultured human umbilical vein endothelial cells. In addition, CHGA triggered secretion of endothelin-1 from glomerular endothelial cells and TGF-beta1 from mesangial cells cocultured with glomerular endothelial cells. In humans, plasma CHGA correlated positively with endothelin-1 and negatively with GFR. GFR was highly heritable in twin pairs, and common promoter haplotypes of CHGA predicted GFR. In patients with progressive hypertensive renal disease, a CHGA haplotype predicted rate of GFR decline. In conclusion, these data suggest that CHGA acts through the glomerular endothelium to regulate renal function.

Adrenergic polymorphism and the human stress response

Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) is the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine biosynthesis. Does common genetic variation at human TH alter autonomic activity and predispose to cardiovascular disease? We undertook systematic polymorphism discovery at the TH locus, and then tested variants for contributions to sympathetic function and blood pressure. We resequenced 80 ethnically diverse individuals across the TH locus. One hundred seventy-two twin pairs were evaluated for sympathetic traits, including catecholamine production and environmental (cold) stress responses. To evaluate hypertension, we genotyped subjects selected from the most extreme diastolic blood pressure percentiles in the population. Human TH promoter haplotype/reporter plasmids were transfected into chromaffin cells. Forty-nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and one tetranucleotide repeat were discovered, but coding region polymorphism did not account for common phenotypic variation. A block of linkage disequilibrium spanned four common variants in the proximal promoter. Catecholamine secretory traits were significantly heritable, as were stress-induced blood pressure changes. In the TH promoter, significant associations were found for urinary catecholamine excretion, as well as blood pressure response to stress. TH promoter haplotype #2 (TGGG) showed pleiotropy, increasing both norepinephrine excretion and blood pressure during stress. In hypertension, a case-control study (1266 subjects, 53% women) established the effect of C-824T in determination of blood pressure. We conclude that human catecholamine secretory traits are heritable, displaying joint genetic determination (pleiotropy) with autonomic activity and finally with blood pressure in the population. Catecholamine secretion is influenced by genetic variation in the adrenergic pathway encoding catecholamine synthesis, especially at the classically rate-limiting step, TH. The results suggest novel pathophysiological links between a key adrenergic locus, catecholamine metabolism, and blood pressure, and suggest new strategies to approach the mechanism, diagnosis, and treatment of systemic hypertension.

Naturally occurring human genetic variation in the 3'-untranslated region of the secretory protein chromogranin A is associated with autonomic blood pressure regulation and hypertension in a sex-dependent fashion

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine whether the common variation at the chromogranin A (CHGA) locus increases susceptibility to hypertension.

BACKGROUND

CHGA regulates catecholamine storage and release. Previously we systematically identified genetic variants across CHGA.

METHODS

We carried out dense genotyping across the CHGA locus in >1,000 individuals with the most extreme blood pressures (BPs) in the population, as well as twin pairs with autonomic phenotypes. We also characterized the function of a trait-associated 3'-untranslated region (3'-UTR) variant with transfected CHGA 3'-UTR/luciferase reporter plasmids.

RESULTS

CHGA was overexpressed in patients with hypertension, especially hypertensive men, and CHGA predicted catecholamines. In individuals with extreme BPs, CHGA genetic variants predicted BP, especially in men, with a peak association occurring in the 3'-UTR at C+87T, accounting for up to approximately 12/ approximately 9 mm Hg. The C+87T genotype predicted CHGA secretion in vivo, with the +87T allele (associated with lower BP) also diminishing plasma CHGA by approximately 10%. The C+87T 3'-UTR variant also predicted the BP response to environmental (cold) stress; the same allele (+87T) that diminished basal BP in the population also decreased the systolic BP response to stress by approximately 12 mm Hg, and the response was smaller in women (by approximately 6 mm Hg). In a chromaffin cell-transfected CHGA 3'-UTR/luciferase reporter plasmid, the +87T allele associated with lower BP also decreased reporter expression by approximately 30%. In cultured chromaffin cells, reducing endogenous CHGA expression by small interfering ribonucleic acid caused approximately two-thirds depletion of catecholamine storage vesicles.

CONCLUSIONS

Common variant C+87T in the CHGA 3'-UTR is a functional polymorphism causally associated with hypertension especially in men of the population, and we propose steps ("intermediate phenotypes") whereby in a sex-dependent fashion this genetic variant influences the ultimate disease trait. These observations suggest new molecular strategies to probe the pathophysiology, risk, and rational treatment of hypertension.

The relationship between smoking and age at the menopause: A systematic review

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE

Increasing life expectancy has made it ever more important to study the factors that influence the age at the menopause, given that when it is reached outside of the normal range, it is associated with increased risk of osteoporosis and cardiovascular diseases, among other conditions. Among the factors studied in relation to early menopause, smoking is prominent. Destruction of the ovarian follicles is one of the mechanisms postulated for this effect. The aim of this study was to review and describe the associations between age at the menopause and the habit of smoking, its duration and its intensity.

METHOD

A systematic review of the literature indexed in the MEDLINE and LILACS databases was conducted, without restriction on publication date. After initially identifying 1325 articles and preselecting 161 articles for consideration of their complete texts, 96 articles reporting on the results from 109 studies were selected for analysis.

RESULTS

A great majority of the studies reported an association between the habit of smoking and early menopause, but there was no clear evidence that the duration of smoking and quantity of cigarettes smoked had any association with age at the natural menopause.

CONCLUSION

Additional studies are needed, preferably of prospective nature and with a large number of women, in order to deepen the knowledge of the effects of various aspects of smoking on age at the menopause. Experimental studies on animals may also contribute towards clarifying the physiopathological mechanisms through which smoking influences age at the menopause.

Probabilistic models for continuous ontogenetic transition processes

BACKGROUND

Probabilistic reaction norms (PRNs) are an extension of the concept of reaction norms, developed to account for stochasticity in ontogenetic transitions. However, logistic regression based PRNs are restricted to discrete time intervals, whereas previously proposed models for continuous transitions are demanding in terms of modelling effort and data needed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here we introduce two alternative approaches for the probabilistic modelling of continuous ontogenetic transitions. The models are simplified in their description of forces underlying transitions, thus being empirical rather than mechanistic by their nature, but therefore applicable to situations where data and prior knowledge of transitions are limited. The models provide continuous time description of the transition pattern, insights into how it is affected by covariates, at the same time allowing for fine scale transition probability predictions. Performance of the models is demonstrated using empirical data on metamorphosis in common frogs (Rana temporaria) reared in a common garden experiment.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

As being user-friendly and methodologically easily accessible, the models introduced in this study aid the concept of probabilistic reaction norms becoming as general and applicable tool in the studies of life-history variation as the deterministic reaction norms are today.

Common genetic variants in the chromogranin A promoter alter autonomic activity and blood pressure

Chromogranin A (CHGA) is stored and released from the same secretory vesicles that contain catecholamines in chromaffin cells and noradrenergic neurons. We had previously identified common genetic variants at the CHGA locus in several human populations. Here we focus on whether inter-individual variants in the promoter region are of physiological significance. A common haplotype, CGATA (Hap-B), blunted the blood pressure response to cold stress and the effect exhibited molecular heterosis with the greatest blood pressure change found in Hap-A/Hap-B heterozygotes. Homozygosity for three minor alleles with peak effects within the haplotype predicted lower stress-induced blood pressure changes. The G-462A variant predicted resting blood pressure in the population with higher pressures occurring in heterozygotes (heterosis). Using cells transfected with CHGA promoter-luciferase reporter constructs, the Hap-B haplotype had decreased luciferase expression compared to the TTGTC (Hap-A) haplotype under both basal conditions and after activation by pre-ganglionic stimuli. The G-462A variant altered a COUP-TF transcriptional control motif. The two alleles in transfected promoters differed in basal activity and in the responses to COUP-II-TF transactivation and to retinoic acid. In vitro findings of molecular heterosis were also noted with the transfected CHGA promoter wherein the diploid combination of the two G-462A alleles gave rise to higher luciferase expression than either allele in isolation. Our results suggest that common genetic variants in the CHGA promoter may regulate heritable changes in blood pressure.

Discovery of common human genetic variants of GTP cyclohydrolase 1 (GCH1) governing nitric oxide, autonomic activity, and cardiovascular risk

GTP cyclohydrolase 1 (GCH1) is rate limiting in the provision of the cofactor tetrahydrobiopterin for biosynthesis of catecholamines and NO. We asked whether common genetic variation at GCH1 alters transmitter synthesis and predisposes to disease. Here we undertook a systematic search for polymorphisms in GCH1, then tested variants' contributions to NO and catecholamine release as well as autonomic function in twin pairs. Renal NO and neopterin excretions were significantly heritable, as were baroreceptor coupling (heart rate response to BP fluctuation) and pulse interval (1/heart rate). Common GCH1 variant C+243T in the 3'-untranslated region (3'-UTRs) predicted NO excretion, as well as autonomic traits: baroreceptor coupling, maximum pulse interval, and pulse interval variability, though not catecholamine secretion. In individuals with the most extreme BP values in the population, C+243T affected both diastolic and systolic BP, principally in females. In functional studies, C+243T decreased reporter expression in transfected 3'-UTRs plasmids. We conclude that human NO secretion traits are heritable, displaying joint genetic determination with autonomic activity by functional polymorphism at GCH1. Our results document novel pathophysiological links between a key biosynthetic locus and NO metabolism and suggest new strategies for approaching the mechanism, diagnosis, and treatment of risk predictors for cardiovascular diseases such as hypertension.

Tyrosine hydroxylase, the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine biosynthesis: discovery of common human genetic variants governing transcription, autonomic activity, and blood pressure in vivo

BACKGROUND

Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) is the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine biosynthesis. Does common genetic variation at human TH alter autonomic activity and predispose to cardiovascular disease? We undertook systematic polymorphism discovery at the TH locus and then tested variants for contributions to sympathetic function and blood pressure.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We resequenced 80 ethnically diverse individuals across the TH locus. One hundred seventy-two twin pairs were evaluated for sympathetic traits, including catecholamine production, reflex control of the circulation, and environmental (cold) stress responses. To evaluate hypertension, we genotyped subjects selected from the most extreme diastolic blood pressure percentiles in the population. Human TH promoter haplotype/reporter plasmids were transfected into chromaffin cells. Forty-nine single-nucleotide polymorphisms were discovered, but coding region polymorphism did not account for common phenotypic variation. A block of linkage disequilibrium spanned 4 common variants in the proximal promoter. Catecholamine secretory traits were significantly heritable (h2), as were stress-induced blood pressure changes. In the TH promoter, significant associations were found for urinary catecholamine excretion and for blood pressure response to stress. TH promoter haplotype 2 (TGGG) showed pleiotropy, increasing both norepinephrine excretion and blood pressure during stress. Coalescent simulations suggest that TH haplotype 2 likely arose approximately 380,000 years ago. In hypertension, 2 independent case-control studies (1266 subjects with 53% women and 927 subjects with 24% women) replicated the effect of C-824T in the determination of blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that human catecholamine secretory traits are heritable, displaying joint genetic determination (pleiotropy) with autonomic activity and finally with blood pressure in the population. Catecholamine secretion is influenced by genetic variation in the adrenergic pathway encoding catecholamine synthesis, especially at the classically rate-limiting step, TH. The results suggest novel pathophysiological links between a key adrenergic locus, catecholamine metabolism, and blood pressure and suggest new strategies to approach the mechanism, diagnosis, and treatment of systemic hypertension.

Menopausal status and factors affecting cessation of menses in the region of Bonn, Germany

Because of the high prevalence of hormone use and reproductive surgeries in Western women natural menopause is a less frequent condition. Our aim was to examine the influences of hormonal and other factors on timing of cessation of menses. We analysed population controls of a German case-control study on breast cancer risks. The sample comprised N=829 women without hysterectomy or bilateral oophorectomy. We estimated the risk for the occurrence of last menses by Cox proportional hazard modelling. For calculating hazard rate ratios (HRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) women with menstrual cycles up to one year before interview were censored at that age. Median age at cessation of menses was 50 years (inter-quartile range 47–53 years). A significant later cessation of menses resulted from oral contraceptive use (HRR 0.74, 95% CI 0.59–0.93 for up to 10 years), and hormone therapy use until last menses (HRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47–0.70). Also, thyroidal medications were associated with a delayed cessation of menses (HRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42–0.96 for more than 10 years of use). Smoking until at least two years before last menses and allergies revealed an earlier cessation of bleedings (HRR 1.50, 95% CI 1.22–1.83 and HRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.07–1.53 respectively). Natural menopause is difficult to determine. Factors affecting the ovaries or the endocrine system can modulate timing of menopause. Endocrine biomarkers should be additionally taken into account when defining menopausal status.

Heredity of Endothelin Secretion

Background— Endothelial dysfunction predisposes to vascular injury in association with hypertension. Endothelin (ET-1) is a potent vasoactive peptide that is synthesized and released by the vascular endothelium and is a marker of endothelial function. Chromogranin A (CHGA) regulates the storage and release of catecholamines and may have direct actions on the microvasculature. CHGA , a candidate gene for intermediate phenotypes that contribute to hypertension, shows a pattern of single nucleotide polymorphism variations that alter the expression and function of this gene both in vivo and in vitro.

Methods and Results— In a study of twins (n=238 pairs), plasma ET-1 was 58±5% ( P <0.0001) heritable. Plasma ET-1 was both correlated and associated with chromogranin fragment levels, and the 2 were influenced by shared genetic determination (pleiotropy [ρ G ]; for the CHGA precursor, ρ G =0.318±0.105; P =0.0032). We therefore hypothesized that variation in the CHGA gene may influence ET-1 secretion. Carriers of the CHGA promoter −988G, −462A, and −89A minor alleles showed significantly higher mean plasma ET-1 than their major allele homozygote counterparts ( P =0.02, P =0.006, P =0.03, respectively). Analysis of a linkage disequilibrium block that spans these 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms showed a significant association between the GATACA haplotype and plasma ET-1 ( P =0.0075). In cultured human umbilical vein endothelial cells, CHGA caused dose-dependent secretion of ET-1 over a brief (<1 hour) time course at relatively low concentrations of CHGA (10 to 100 nmol/L) with a threshold concentration (10 nmol/L) in the range found circulating in humans in vivo.

Conclusions— These results suggest that common, heritable variation in expression of the human CHGA gene influences endothelial ET-1 secretion in vivo, explained by a CHGA stimulus/ET-1 secretion coupling in endothelial cells in vitro. The findings document a previously unsuspected interaction between the sympathochromaffin system and the endothelium and suggest novel genetic and cell biological approaches to the prediction, diagnosis, and mechanism of endothelial dysfunction in human disease.

Renal albumin excretion: twin studies identify influences of heredity, environment, and adrenergic pathway polymorphism

Albumin excretion marks early glomerular injury in hypertension. This study investigated heritability of albumin excretion in twin pairs and its genetic determination by adrenergic pathway polymorphism. Genetic associations used single nucleotide polymorphisms at adrenergic pathway loci spanning catecholamine biosynthesis, storage, catabolism, receptor action, and postreceptor signal transduction. We studied 134 single nucleotide polymorphisms at 46 loci for a total of >51,000 genotypes. Albumin excretion heritability was 45.2+/-7.4% (P=2x10(-7)), and the phenotype aggregated significantly with adrenergic, renal, metabolic, and hemodynamic traits. In the adrenergic system, excretions of both norepinephrine and epinephrine correlated with albumin. In the kidney, albumin excretion correlated with glomerular and tubular traits (Na(+) and K(+) excretion; fractional excretion of Na(+) and Li(+)). Albumin excretion shared genetic determination (genetic covariance) with epinephrine excretion, and environmental determination with glomerular filtration rate and electrolyte intake/excretion. Albumin excretion associated with polymorphisms at multiple points in the adrenergic pathway: catecholamine biosynthesis (tyrosine hydroxylase), catabolism (monoamine oxidase A), storage/release (chromogranin A), receptor target (dopamine D1 receptor), and postreceptor signal transduction (sorting nexin 13 and rho kinase). Epistasis (gene-by-gene interaction) occurred between alleles at rho kinase, tyrosine hydroxylase, chromogranin A, and sorting nexin 13. Dopamine D1 receptor polymorphism showed pleiotropic effects on both albumin and dopamine excretion. These studies establish new roles for heredity and environment in albumin excretion. Urinary excretions of albumin and catecholamines are highly heritable, and their parallel suggests adrenergic mediation of early glomerular permeability alterations. Albumin excretion is influenced by multiple adrenergic pathway genes and is, thus, polygenic. Such functional links between adrenergic activity and glomerular injury suggest novel approaches to its prediction, prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

C-reactive protein, an 'intermediate phenotype' for inflammation: human twin studies reveal heritability, association with blood pressure and the metabolic syndrome, and the influence of common polymorphism at catecholaminergic/beta-adrenergic pathway loci

BACKGROUND

C-reactive protein (CRP) both reflects and participates in inflammation, and its circulating concentration marks cardiovascular risk. Here we sought to understand the role of heredity in determining CRP secretion.

METHODS

CRP, as well as multiple facets of the metabolic syndrome, were measured in a series of 229 twins, both monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ), to estimate trait heritability (h2). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping was done at adrenergic pathway loci. Haplotypes were inferred from genotypes by likelihood methods. Association of CRP with hypertension and the metabolic syndrome was studied in a larger series of 732 individuals, including 79 with hypertension.

RESULTS

MZ and DZ twin variance components indicated substantial h2 for CRP, at approximately 56 +/- 7% (P < 0.001). CRP was significantly associated (P < 0.05) with multiple features of the metabolic syndrome in twins, including body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), leptin and lipids. In established hypertension, elevated CRP was associated with increased BP, BMI, insulin, HOMA (index of insulin resistance), leptin, triglycerides and norepinephrine. Twin correlations indicated pleiotropy (shared genetic determination) for CRP with BMI (P = 0.0002), leptin (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P = 0.002) and systolic blood pressure (SBP) (P = 0.042). Approximately 9800 genotypes (43 genetic variants at 17 loci) were scored within catecholaminergic pathways: biosynthetic, receptor and signal transduction. Plasma CRP concentration in twins was predicted by polymorphisms at three loci in physiological series within the catecholamine biosynthetic/beta-adrenergic pathway: TH (tyrosine hydroxylase), ADRB1 (beta1-adrenergic receptor) and ADRB2 (beta2-adrenergic receptor). In the TH promoter, common allelic variation accounted for up to approximately 6.6% of CRP inter-individual variance. At ADRB1, variation at Gly389Arg predicted approximately 2.8% of CRP, while ADRB2 promoter variants T-47C and T-20C also contributed. Particular haplotypes and diplotypes at TH and ADRB1 also predicted CRP, though typically no better than single SNPs alone. Epistasis (gene-by-gene interaction) was demonstrated for particular combinations of TH and ADRB2 alleles, consistent with their actions in a pathway in series. In an illustration of pleiotropy, not only CRP but also plasma triglycerides were predicted by polymorphisms at TH (P = 0.0053) and ADRB2 (P = 0.027).

CONCLUSIONS

CRP secretion is substantially heritable in humans, demonstrating pleiotropy (shared genetic determination) with other features of the metabolic syndrome, such as BMI, triglycerides or BP. Multiple, common genetic variants in the catecholaminergic/beta-adrenergic pathway contribute to CRP, and these variants (especially at TH and ADRB2) seem to interact (epistasis) to influence the trait. The results uncover novel pathophysiological links between the adrenergic system and inflammation, and suggest new strategies to probe the role and actions of inflammation within this setting.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

A correlated frailty model with long-term survivors for estimating the heritability of breast cancer

The aim of this study is to investigate the role of genetics and environment in susceptibility to breast cancer (frailty). An interdisciplinary approach was adopted, combining a correlated frailty-mixture model with genetic equations, allowing for decomposition of the frailty variance into genetic and environmental components. In addition, the possibility that a fraction of the population under study is 'immune' to the disease is evaluated, and changes in heritability estimates introducing a fraction of non-susceptible individuals are determined. The methodology is applied to breast cancer data from the Swedish Twin Registry, including information about all female monozygotic and dizygotic twin pairs born in Sweden between 1886 and 1967. The inferential problem is solved in a Bayesian framework and the numerical work is carried out using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

Prevalence of premature ovarian failure in monozygotic and dizygotic twins

BACKGROUND

Premature ovarian failure (POF) before 40 years of age from natural causes affects approximately 1% of adult women, with minor variations between ethnic groups. A recent case of ovarian transplantation between young monozygotic (MZ) twins in which one had undergone unexplained POF at 14 years has prompted a study of the prevalence of POF.

METHODS

Menopausal ages of 832 Australian and UK female twin-pairs were extracted from volunteer national twin registry databases containing medical, reproductive and lifestyle data surveyed by mail questionnaire. Surgical menopause was an exclusion criterion.

RESULTS

The prevalence of POF in both MZ and dizygotic (DZ) twins was similar in both registries and 3- to 5-fold greater than the general population at age thresholds 40 and 45 years. No specific factors were found to account for the higher risk of early menopause. Some twins of both zygosities were highly discordant for menopausal age (>or=10 years). Nevertheless, there was significant intra-twin dependence, especially for MZ twins, and the average age difference at last menses was greater in DZ twin-pairs.

CONCLUSION

Both MZ and DZ twins are at higher risk of POF. Despite some striking differences within MZ twin-pairs, menopausal ages were more concordant than for DZ twin-pairs, confirming that the timing of menopause has a heritable component.

Rho kinase polymorphism influences blood pressure and systemic vascular resistance in human twins: role of heredity

The Rho/Rho kinase (ROCK) pathway is implicated in experimental hypertension. We, therefore, explored the role of ROCK2 genetic variation in human blood pressure (BP) regulation, exploiting the advantages of a human twin sample to probe heritability. The focus of this work is the common nonsynonymous variant at ROCK2: Thr431Asn. Cardiovascular and autonomic traits displayed substantial heritability (from approximately 33% to 71%; P<0.05). The Asn/Asn genotype (compared with Asn/Thr or Thr/Thr) was associated with greater resting systolic (P<0.001), diastolic (P<0.0001), and mean BP (P<0.0001); allelic variation at ROCK2 accounted for up to approximately 5% of BP variation (P<0.0001). Systemic vascular resistance was higher in Asn/Asn individuals (P=0.049), whereas cardiac output, large artery compliance, and vasoactive hormone secretion were not different. Coupling of the renin-angiotensin system to systemic resistance and BP was diminished in Asn/Asn homozygotes, suggesting genetic pleiotropy of Thr431Asn, confirmed by bivariate genetic analyses. The Asn/Asn genotype also predicted higher BP after environmental (cold) stress. The rise in heart rate after cold was less pronounced in Asn/Asn individuals, consistent with intact baroreceptor function, and baroreceptor slope was not influenced by genotype. Common genetic variation (Thr431Asn) at ROCK2 predicts increased BP, systemic vascular resistance (although not large artery compliance), and resistance in response to the endogenous renin-angiotensin system, indicating a resistance vessel-based effect on elevated BP. The results suggest that common variation in ROCK2 exerts systemic resistance-mediated changes in BP, documenting a novel mechanism for human circulatory control, and suggesting new possibilities for diagnostic profiling and treatment of subjects at risk of developing hypertension.

Application of Bayesian Inference using Gibbs Sampling to Item-Response Theory Modeling of Multi-Symptom Genetic Data

Several "genetic" item-response theory (IRT) models are fitted to the responses of 1086 adolescent female twins to the 33 multi-category item Mood and Feeling Questionnaire relating to depressive symptomatology in adolescence. A Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used within a Bayesian framework for inference using Gibbs sampling, implemented in the program WinBUGS 1.4. The final model incorporated separate genetic and non-shared environmental traits ("A and E") and item-specific genetic effects. Simpler models gave markedly poorer fit to the observations judged by the deviance information criterion (DIC). The common genetic factor showed major loadings on melancholic items, while the environmental factor loaded most highly on items relating to self-deprecation. The MCMC approach provides a convenient and flexible alternative to Maximum Likelihood for estimating the parameters of IRT models for relatively large numbers of items in a genetic context. Additional benefits of the IRT approach are discussed including the estimation of latent trait scores, including genetic factor scores, and their sampling errors.

Heritability of menopausal age in mothers and daughters

OBJECTIVE

To determine the heritability of age at natural menopause from mother-daughter pairs.

DESIGN

Two-generation families were selected to study heritability of menopausal age.

SETTING

Subjects were drawn from a population-based study.

PATIENT(S)

One hundred sixty-four mother-daughter pairs with a natural menopausal age.

INTERVENTION(S)

None.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S)

The heritability of age at natural menopause estimated by a random-effects model.

RESULT(S)

A heritability of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%, 50%) was estimated.

CONCLUSION(S)

This study confirms that heritable components largely determine the natural age at menopause. Reasons for the differences between heritability estimates based on sibling pairs and parent-child comparisons are discussed.

Functional allelic heterogeneity and pleiotropy of a repeat polymorphism in tyrosine hydroxylase: prediction of catecholamines and response to stress in twins

Tyrosine hydroxylase, the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine biosynthesis, has a common tetranucleotide repeat polymorphism, (TCAT)(n). We asked whether variation at (TCAT)(n) may influence the autonomic nervous system and its response to environmental stress. To understand the role of heredity in such traits, we turned to a human twin study design. Both biochemical and physiological autonomic traits displayed substantial heritability (h(2)), up to h(2) = 56.8 +/- 7.5% (P < 0.0001) for norepinephrine secretion, and h(2) = 61 +/- 6% (P < 0.001) for heart rate. Common (TCAT)(n) alleles, particularly (TCAT)(6) and (TCAT)(10i), predicted such traits (including catecholamine secretion, as well as basal and poststress heart rate) in allele copy number dose-dependent fashion, although in directionally opposite ways, indicating functional allelic heterogeneity. (TCAT)(n) diploid genotypes (e.g., [TCAT](6)/[TCAT](10i)) predicted the same physiological traits but with increased explanatory power for trait variation (in contrast to allele copy number). Multivariate ANOVA documented genetic pleiotropy: joint effects of the (TCAT)(10i) allele on both biochemical (norepinephrine) and physiological (heart rate) traits. (TCAT)(6) allele frequencies were lower in normotensive twins at genetic risk of hypertension, consistent with an effect to protect against later development of hypertension, and suggesting that the traits predicted by these variants in still-normotensive subjects are early, heritable, "intermediate phenotypes" in the pathogenetic scheme for later development of sustained hypertension. We conclude that common allelic variation within the tyrosine hydroxylase locus exerts a powerful, heritable effect on autonomic control of the circulation and that such variation may have implications in later development of cardiovascular disease traits such as hypertension.

Factor V Leiden mutation accelerates the onset of natural menopause

OBJECTIVE

Smoking is consistently associated with a younger age for menopause. Although this may be because of the direct toxic effects of tobacco smoke on follicles, we hypothesize that there may also be a relationship between smoking and a vascular origin of early menopausal onset. Several lifestyle factors have been investigated, but never factors of the clotting cascade. The objective of this study, then, was to determine the effect of factor V Leiden mutation and smoking with respect to age at menopause.

DESIGN

Data were used from a subset of 373 postmenopausal participants of a Dutch population-based cohort, born between 1911 and 1925. All women had experienced natural menopause, without use of hormone replacement therapy.

RESULTS

Female carriers of the factor V Leiden mutation (n = 14) reported the onset of menopause at an earlier age than noncarriers (n = 359; difference, 3.1 years; 95% CI: 0.3, 5.9). Smoker carriers (n = 5) were 4.3 years younger at menopause than smoker noncarriers (n = 92; 95% CI: 0.9,7.6). In nonsmokers, this relationship was less strong.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the factor V Leiden mutation was related, but not statistically significant, to an earlier age at menopause; smoking possibly enhances this effect. The mutation can be one of the genetic determinants of menopausal age operating through a vascular mechanism.

Differential patterns of age-related mortality increase in middle age and old age

It is often assumed that aging is a uniform process throughout adulthood because of the approximately linear increase of logarithmic mortality. We explored this assumption by analyzing cause-specific mortality increases in France (1979-1994). Rising rapidly at ages 30-54 years ("middle age") are death rates from malignant neoplasms at various sites, acute myocardial infarction, hypertensive disease, and liver cirrhosis. Steeply increasing at 65-89 years ("old age") are death rates from certain infectious diseases, particularly of the respiratory system; certain types of accidents; nonalcoholic mental disorders (probably due mainly to Alzheimer's disease and senile dementia); heart failure; cerebrovascular disease; and some "vague" categories. The processes at work may be fundamentally different in these two life history stages, such that the mortality rise in middle age reflects specific chronic diseases that develop prematurely in some high-risk individuals, whereas the mortality increase in old age is dominated by senescent processes that eventually raise the vulnerability of almost all individuals to multiple pathologies.

The genetics of aging

The genetic analysis of life span has only begun in mammals, invertebrates, such as Caenorhabditis elegans and Drosophila, and yeast. Even at this primitive stage of the genetic analysis of aging, the physiological observations that rate of metabolism is intimately tied to life span is supported. In many examples from mice to worms to flies to yeast, genetic variants that affect life span also modify metabolism. Insulin signaling regulates life span coordinately with reproduction, metabolism, and free radical protective gene regulation in C. elegans. This may be related to the findings that caloric restriction also regulates mammalian aging, perhaps via the modulation of insulin-like signaling pathways. The nervous system has been implicated as a key tissue where insulin-like signaling and free radical protective pathways regulate life span in C. elegans and Drosophila. Genes that determine the life span could act in neuroendocrine cells in diverse animals. The involvement of insulin-like hormones suggests that the plasticity in life spans evident in animal phylogeny may be due to variation in the timing of release of hormones that control vitality and mortality as well as variation in the response to those hormones. Pedigree analysis of human aging may reveal variations in the orthologs of the insulin pathway genes and coupled pathways that regulate invertebrate aging. Thus, genetic approaches may identify a set of circuits that was established in ancestral metazoans to regulate their longevity.

Natural selection and quantitative genetics of life-history traits in Western women: a twin study

Whether contemporary human populations are still evolving as a result of natural selection has been hotly debated. For natural selection to cause evolutionary change in a trait, variation in the trait must be correlated with fitness and be genetically heritable and there must be no genetic constraints to evolution. These conditions have rarely been tested in human populations. In this study, data from a large twin cohort were used to assess whether selection will cause a change among women in a contemporary Western population for three life-history traits: age at menarche, age at first reproduction, and age at menopause. We control for temporal variation in fecundity (the "baby boom" phenomenon) and differences between women in educational background and religious affiliation. University-educated women have 35% lower fitness than those with less than seven years education, and Roman Catholic women have about 20% higher fitness than those of other religions. Although these differences were significant, education and religion only accounted for 2% and 1% of variance in fitness, respectively. Using structural equation modeling, we reveal significant genetic influences for all three life-history traits, with heritability estimates of 0.50, 0.23, and 0.45, respectively. However, strong genetic covariation with reproductive fitness could only be demonstrated for age at first reproduction, with much weaker covariation for age at menopause and no significant covariation for age at menarche. Selection may, therefore, lead to the evolution of earlier age at first reproduction in this population. We also estimate substantial heritable variation in fitness itself, with approximately 39% of the variance attributable to additive genetic effects, the remainder consisting of unique environmental effects and small effects from education and religion. We discuss mechanisms that could be maintaining such a high heritability for fitness. Most likely is that selection is now acting on different traits from which it did in pre-industrial human populations.