Topical antibiotic prophylaxis to reduce respiratory tract infections and mortality in adults receiving mechanical ventilation

Visualizing and diagnosing spillover within randomized concurrent controlled trials through the application of diagnostic test assessment methods

BACKGROUND

Spillover of effect, whether positive or negative, from intervention to control group patients invalidates the Stable Unit Treatment Variable Assumption (SUTVA). SUTVA is critical to valid causal inference from randomized concurrent controlled trials (RCCT). Spillover of infection prevention is an important population level effect mediating herd immunity. This herd effect, being additional to any individual level effect, is subsumed within the overall effect size (ES) estimate derived by contrast-based techniques from RCCT's. This herd effect would manifest only as increased dispersion among the control group infection incidence rates above background.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The objective here is to explore aspects of spillover and how this might be visualized and diagnosed. I use, for illustration, data from 190 RCCT's abstracted in 13 Cochrane reviews of various antimicrobial versus non-antimicrobial based interventions to prevent pneumonia in ICU patients. Spillover has long been postulated in this context. Arm-based techniques enable three approaches to identify increased dispersion, not available from contrast-based techniques, which enable the diagnosis of spillover within antimicrobial versus non-antimicrobial based infection prevention RCCT's. These three approaches are benchmarking the pneumonia incidence rates versus a clinically relevant range, comparing the dispersion in pneumonia incidence among the control versus the intervention groups and thirdly, visualizing the incidence dispersion within summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) plots. By these criteria there is harmful spillover effects to concurrent control group patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Arm-based versus contrast-based techniques lead to contrary inferences from the aggregated RCCT's of antimicrobial based interventions despite similar summary ES estimates. Moreover, the inferred relationship between underlying control group risk and ES is 'flipped'.

Short-duration selective decontamination of the digestive tract infection control does not contribute to increased antimicrobial resistance burden in a pilot cluster randomised trial (the ARCTIC Study)

OBJECTIVE

Selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) is a well-studied but hotly contested medical intervention of enhanced infection control. Here, we aim to characterise the changes to the microbiome and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) gene profiles in critically ill children treated with SDD-enhanced infection control compared with conventional infection control.

DESIGN

We conducted shotgun metagenomic microbiome and resistome analysis on serial oropharyngeal and faecal samples collected from critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients in a pilot multicentre cluster randomised trial of SDD. The microbiome and AMR profiles were compared for longitudinal and intergroup changes. Of consented patients, faecal microbiome baseline samples were obtained in 89 critically ill children. Additionally, samples collected during and after critical illness were collected in 17 children treated with SDD-enhanced infection control and 19 children who received standard care.

RESULTS

SDD affected the alpha and beta diversity of critically ill children to a greater degree than standard care. At cessation of treatment, the microbiome of SDD patients was dominated by Actinomycetota, specifically Bifidobacterium, at the end of mechanical ventilation. Altered gut microbiota was evident in a subset of SDD-treated children who returned late longitudinal samples compared with children receiving standard care. Clinically relevant AMR gene burden was unaffected by the administration of SDD-enhanced infection control compared with standard care. SDD did not affect the composition of the oral microbiome compared with standard treatment.

CONCLUSION

Short interventions of SDD caused a shift in the microbiome but not of the AMR gene pool in critically ill children at the end mechanical ventilation, compared with standard antimicrobial therapy.

Does selective digestive decontamination (SDD) increase antibiotic resistance? Long-term comparison of two intensive care units (with and without SDD) of the same tertiary hospital

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to to compare the antimicrobial resistance rate and its relationship with the antibiotic consumption in two separate Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of the same hospital, one with and other without selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD).

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study in the two ICUs of the Araba University Hospital. Trauma and neurosurgical patients are admitted to the SDD-ICU, and general digestive surgery patients go to the no SDD-ICU. From 2014 to 2018 we analyzed the number of isolates, and the bacterial resistance trends of 47 antimicrobial-microorganism combinations. Additionally, antimicrobial consumption was estimated in both ICUs. Resistance rates were also compared with those reported in ENVIN-HELICS Spanish national registry.

RESULTS

In the ICU with SDD protocol, there was a significant decrease in the resistance of E. coli to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid and in the resistance of E. faecalis to high concentration of gentamycin and high concentration of streptomycin. A significant increase of resistance of Staphylococcus coagulasa negative (CoNS) to linezolid in the no SDD-ICU was also detected. Overall, the level of resistance in the SDD-ICU was lower or of the same order than in the ICU without SDD and that reported in the Spanish national registry.

CONCLUSIONS

SDD had neither a clinically relevant impact on emergence and spread of resistance, nor in the overall systemic antimicrobial use. The patient type rather than the SDD protocol showed to condition the ecology and therefore, the resistance rate in the ICUs.

Rebound Inverts the Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia Prevention Effect of Antibiotic Based Decontamination Interventions in ICU Cohorts with Prolonged Length of Stay

Could rebound explain the paradoxical lack of prevention effect against Staphylococcus aureus blood stream infections (BSIs) with antibiotic-based decontamination intervention (BDI) methods among studies of ICU patients within the literature? Two meta-regression models were applied, each versus the group mean length of stay (LOS). Firstly, the prevention effects against S. aureus BSI [and S. aureus VAP] among 136 studies of antibiotic-BDI versus other interventions were analyzed. Secondly, the S. aureus BSI [and S. aureus VAP] incidence in 268 control and intervention cohorts from studies of antibiotic-BDI versus that among 165 observational cohorts as a benchmark was modelled. In model one, the meta-regression line versus group mean LOS crossed the null, with the antibiotic-BDI prevention effect against S. aureus BSI at mean LOS day 7 (OR 0.45; 0.30 to 0.68) inverted at mean LOS day 20 (OR 1.7; 1.1 to 2.6). In model two, the meta-regression line versus group mean LOS crossed the benchmark line, and the predicted S. aureus BSI incidence for antibiotic-BDI groups was 0.47; 0.09-0.84 percentage points below versus 3.0; 0.12-5.9 above the benchmark in studies with 7 versus 20 days mean LOS, respectively. Rebound within the intervention groups attenuated and inverted the prevention effect of antibiotic-BDI against S. aureus VAP and BSI, respectively. This explains the paradoxical findings.

Indirect (herd) effects of topical antibiotic prophylaxis and oral care versus non-antimicrobial methods increase mortality among ICU patients: realigning Cochrane review data to emulate a three-tier cluster randomised trial

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the direct effects to recipients and indirect (herd) effects to non-recipients of each of topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP) and oral care methods on patient mortality within randomised concurrent controlled trials (RCCT) using Cochrane review data.

DESIGN

Control and intervention groups from 209 RCCTs of TAP (tier 3), oral care (tier 2) each versus non-antimicrobial (tier 1) ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) prevention interventions arranged to emulate a three-tiered cluster randomised trial (CRT). Eligible RCCTs were those including ICU patients with >50% of patients receiving >24 hours of mechanical ventilation (MV) with mortality data available as abstracted in 13 Cochrane reviews.

EXPOSURES

Direct and indirect exposures to either TAP or oral care within RCCTs versus non-antimicrobial VAP prevention interventions.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The ICU mortality within control and intervention groups, respectively, within RCCTs of either TAP or oral care versus that within non-antimicrobial VAP prevention RCCTs serving as benchmark.

RESULTS

The ICU mortality was 23.9%, 23.0% and 20.3% for intervention groups and 28.7%, 25.5% and 19.5% for control groups of RCCTs of TAP (tier 1), oral care (tier 2) and non-antimicrobial (tier 3) methods of VAP prevention, respectively. In a random effects meta-regression including late mortality data and adjusting for group mean age, year of study publication and MV proportion, the direct effect of TAP and oral care versus non-antimicrobial methods were 1.04 (95% CI 0.78 to 1.30) and 1.1 (95% CI 0.77 to 1.43) whereas the indirect effects were 1.39 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.74) and 1.26 (95% CI 0.89 to 1.62), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Indirect (herd) effects from TAP and oral care methods on mortality are stronger than the direct effects as made apparent by the three-tiered CRT. These indirect effects, being harmful to concurrent control groups by increasing mortality, perversely inflate the appearance of benefit within RCCTs.

Establishing the safety of selective digestive decontamination within the ICU population: a bridge too far?

BACKGROUND

Infection prevention interventions within the intensive care unit (ICU) setting, whether studied within quality improvement projects or cluster randomized trials (CRT), are seen as low risk and grounded in an ethical imperative. Selective digestive decontamination (SDD) appears highly effective at preventing ICU infections within randomized concurrent control trials (RCCTs) prompting mega-CRTs with mortality as the primary endpoint.

FINDINGS

Surprisingly, the summary results of RCCTs versus CRTs differ strikingly, being respectively, a 15-percentage-point versus a zero-percentage-point ICU mortality difference between control versus SDD intervention groups. Multiple other discrepancies are equally puzzling and contrary to both prior expectations and the experience within population-based studies of infection prevention interventions using vaccines. Could spillover effects from SDD conflate the RCCT control group event rate differences and represent population harm? Evidence that SDD is fundamentally safe to concurrent non-recipients in ICU populations is absent. A postulated CRT to realize this, the SDD Herd Effects Estimation Trial (SHEET), would require > 100 ICUs to achieve sufficient statistical power to find a two-percentage-point mortality spillover effect. Moreover, as a potentially harmful population-based intervention, SHEET would pose novel and insurmountable ethical issues including who is the research subject; whether informed consent is required and from whom; whether there is equipoise; the benefit versus the risk; considerations of vulnerable groups; and who should be the gatekeeper?

CONCLUSION

The basis for the mortality difference between control and intervention groups of SDD studies remains unclear. Several paradoxical results are consistent with a spillover effect that would conflate the inference of benefit originating from RCCTs. Moreover, this spillover effect would constitute to herd peril.

The Gut Microbiome Modulates Body Temperature Both in Sepsis and Health

Rationale: Among patients with sepsis, variation in temperature trajectories predicts clinical outcomes. In healthy individuals, normal body temperature is variable and has decreased consistently since the 1860s. The biologic underpinnings of this temperature variation in disease and health are unknown. Objectives: To establish and interrogate the role of the gut microbiome in calibrating body temperature. Methods: We performed a series of translational analyses and experiments to determine whether and how variation in gut microbiota explains variation in body temperature in sepsis and in health. We studied patient temperature trajectories using electronic medical record data. We characterized gut microbiota in hospitalized patients using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. We modeled sepsis using intraperitoneal LPS in mice and modulated the microbiome using antibiotics, germ-free, and gnotobiotic animals. Measurements and Main Results: Consistent with prior work, we identified four temperature trajectories in patients hospitalized with sepsis that predicted clinical outcomes. In a separate cohort of 116 hospitalized patients, we found that the composition of patients' gut microbiota at admission predicted their temperature trajectories. Compared with conventional mice, germ-free mice had reduced temperature loss during experimental sepsis. Among conventional mice, heterogeneity of temperature response in sepsis was strongly explained by variation in gut microbiota. Healthy germ-free and antibiotic-treated mice both had lower basal body temperatures compared with control animals. The Lachnospiraceae family was consistently associated with temperature trajectories in hospitalized patients, experimental sepsis, and antibiotic-treated mice. Conclusions: The gut microbiome is a key modulator of body temperature variation in both health and critical illness and is thus a major, understudied target for modulating physiologic heterogeneity in sepsis.

Gut Microbiome in Sepsis

Abstract The gut has been hypothesized to be the "motor" of multiple organ dysfunction in sepsis. Although there are multiple ways in which the gut can drive systemic inflammation, increasing evidence suggests that the intestinal microbiome plays a more substantial role than previously appreciated. An English language literature review was performed to summarize the current knowledge of sepsis-induced gut microbiome dysbiosis. Conversion of a normal microbiome to a pathobiome in the setting of sepsis is associated with worsened mortality. Changes in microbiome composition and diversity signal the intestinal epithelium and immune system resulting in increased intestinal permeability and a dysregulated immune response to sepsis. Clinical approaches to return to microbiome homeostasis may be theoretically possible through a variety of methods including probiotics, prebiotics, fecal microbial transplant, and selective decontamination of the digestive tract. However, more research is required to determine the efficacy (if any) of targeting the microbiome for therapeutic gain. The gut microbiome rapidly loses diversity with emergence of virulent bacteria in sepsis. Restoring normal commensal bacterial diversity through various therapies may be an avenue to improve sepsis mortality.

The effect of an infection control guideline on the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia in patients admitted to the intensive care units

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Standard airway care can reduce the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). This study aimed to determine the effect of implementing infection control guidelines on the incidence of VAP in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this clinical trial, 121 patients admitted to the intensive care units of Golestan and Imam Khomeini hospitals of Ahvaz, Iran who were under mechanical ventilation were assigned to two groups of control and intervention in non-randomly allocation. The study was conducted in two consecutive periods. In the intervention group, infection control guidelines were performed to prevent VAP and in the control group, routine care was performed. Data collection is done by used a three-part instrument. The first part included questions on the patients' demographics and clinical information. The second part was the modified clinical pulmonary infection scale (MCPIS) for the early detection of VAP. The third part of the data collection instrument was a developed checklist through literature review. The MCPIS was completed for all patients on admission and the 5th day of the study.

RESULTS

The two groups were homogenous respecting their baseline characteristics (P > 0.05) including the mean MCPIS score (P > 0.05). However, the intervention group had lower body temperature (P < 0.001), lower white blood cell counts (P < 0.038), lower MCPIS score (P < 0.001), and higher PaO2/FIO2 (P < 0.013) at the end of the study. The incidence of VAP was significantly lower in the intervention group when compared to the control group (i.e. 30% vs. 65.6%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of infection control guidelines could significantly reduce the incidence of VAP and its diagnostic indicators in patients admitted to the ICU. Nurses are advised to use these guidelines to prevent VAP in patients admitted to ICU.

Staphylococcus aureus hitchhiking from colonization to bacteremia via Candida within ICU infection prevention studies: a proof of concept modelling

Whether Candida within the patient microbiome drives the pathogenesis of Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia, described as microbial hitchhiking, cannot be directly studied. Group-level observations from studies of various decontamination and non-decontamination-based ICU infection prevention interventions and studies without study interventions (observational groups) collectively enable tests of this interaction within causal models. Candidate models of the propensity for Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia to arise with versus without various antibiotic, anti-septic, and antifungal exposures, each identified as singleton exposures, were tested using generalized structural equation modelling (GSEM) techniques with Candida and Staphylococcus aureus colonization appearing as latent variables within the models. Each model was tested by confrontation against blood and respiratory isolate data, obtained from 467 groups within 284 infection prevention studies. Introducing an interaction term between Candida colonization and Staphylococcus aureus colonization substantially improved GSEM model fit. Model-derived coefficients for singular exposure to anti-septic agents (- 1.28; 95% confidence interval; - 2.05 to - 0.5), amphotericin (- 1.49; - 2.3 to - 0.67), and topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP; + 0.93; + 0.15 to + 1.71) as direct effects versus Candida colonization were similar in magnitude but contrary in direction. By contrast, the coefficients for singleton exposure to TAP, as with anti-septic agents, versus Staphylococcus colonization were weaker or non-significant. Topical amphotericin would be predicted to halve both candidemia and Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia incidences versus literature derived benchmarks for absolute differences of < 1 percentage point. Using ICU infection prevention data, GSEM modelling validates the postulated interaction between Candida and Staphylococcus colonization facilitating bacteremia.

In critically ill patients, anti-anaerobic antibiotics increase risk of adverse clinical outcomes

BACKGROUND

Critically ill patients routinely receive antibiotics with activity against anaerobic gut bacteria. However, in other disease states and animal models, gut anaerobes are protective against pneumonia, organ failure and mortality. We therefore designed a translational series of analyses and experiments to determine the effects of anti-anaerobic antibiotics on the risk of adverse clinical outcomes among critically ill patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective single-centre cohort study of 3032 critically ill patients, comparing patients who did and did not receive early anti-anaerobic antibiotics. We compared intensive care unit outcomes (ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP)-free survival, infection-free survival and overall survival) in all patients and changes in gut microbiota in a subcohort of 116 patients. In murine models, we studied the effects of anaerobe depletion in infectious (Klebsiella pneumoniae and Staphylococcus aureus pneumonia) and noninfectious (hyperoxia) injury models.

RESULTS

Early administration of anti-anaerobic antibiotics was associated with decreased VAP-free survival (hazard ratio (HR) 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.45), infection-free survival (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.38) and overall survival (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28). Patients who received anti-anaerobic antibiotics had decreased initial gut bacterial density (p=0.00038), increased microbiome expansion during hospitalisation (p=0.011) and domination by Enterobacteriaceae spp. (p=0.045). Enterobacteriaceae were also enriched among respiratory pathogens in anti-anaerobic-treated patients (p<2.2×10^-16). In murine models, treatment with anti-anaerobic antibiotics increased susceptibility to Enterobacteriaceae pneumonia (p<0.05) and increased the lethality of hyperoxia (p=0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

In critically ill patients, early treatment with anti-anaerobic antibiotics is associated with increased mortality. Mechanisms may include enrichment of the gut with respiratory pathogens, but increased mortality is incompletely explained by infections alone. Given consistent clinical and experimental evidence of harm, the widespread use of anti-anaerobic antibiotics should be reconsidered.

Prevention and treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia in COVID-19

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is the most common acquired infection in the intensive care unit. Recent studies showed that the critical COVID-19 patients with invasive mechanical ventilation have a high risk of developing VAP, which result in a worse outcome and an increasing economic burden. With the development of critical care medicine, the morbidity and mortality of VAP remains high. Especially since the outbreak of COVID-19, the healthcare system is facing unprecedented challenges. Therefore, many efforts have been made in effective prevention, early diagnosis, and early treatment of VAP. This review focuses on the treatment and prevention drugs of VAP in COVID-19 patients. In general, prevention is more important than treatment for VAP. Prevention of VAP is based on minimizing exposure to mechanical ventilation and encouraging early release. There is little difference in drug prophylaxis from non-COVID-19. In term of treatment of VAP, empirical antibiotics is the main treatment, special attention should be paid to the antimicrobial spectrum and duration of antibiotics because of the existence of drug-resistant bacteria. Further studies with well-designed and large sample size were needed to demonstrate the prevention and treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia in COVID-19 based on the specificity of COVID-19.

Candida and the Gram-positive trio: testing the vibe in the ICU patient microbiome using structural equation modelling of literature derived data

Background

Whether Candida interacts with Gram-positive bacteria, such as Staphylococcus aureus, coagulase negative Staphylococci (CNS) and Enterococci, to enhance their invasive potential from the microbiome of ICU patients remains unclear. Several effective anti-septic, antibiotic, anti-fungal, and non-decontamination based interventions studied for prevention of ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and other ICU acquired infections among patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation (MV) are known to variably impact Candida colonization. The collective observations within control and intervention groups from numerous ICU infection prevention studies enables tests of these postulated microbial interactions in the clinical context.

Methods

Four candidate generalized structural equation models (GSEM), each with Staphylococcus aureus, CNS and Enterococci colonization, defined as latent variables, were confronted with blood culture and respiratory tract isolate data derived from 460 groups of ICU patients receiving prolonged MV from 283 infection prevention studies.

Results

Introducing interaction terms between Candida colonization and each of S aureus (coefficient + 0.40; 95% confidence interval + 0.24 to + 0.55), CNS (+ 0.68; + 0.34 to + 1.0) and Enterococcal (+ 0.56; + 0.33 to + 0.79) colonization (all as latent variables) improved the fit for each model. The magnitude and significance level of the interaction terms were similar to the positive associations between exposure to topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP) on Enterococcal (+ 0.51; + 0.12 to + 0.89) and Candida colonization (+ 0.98; + 0.35 to + 1.61) versus the negative association of TAP with S aureus (− 0.45; − 0.70 to − 0.20) colonization and the negative association of anti-fungal exposure and Candida colonization (− 1.41; − 1.6 to − 0.72).

Conclusions

GSEM modelling of published ICU infection prevention data enables the postulated interactions between Candida and Gram-positive bacteria to be tested using clinically derived data. The optimal model implies interactions occurring in the human microbiome facilitating bacterial invasion and infection. This interaction might also account for the paradoxically high bacteremia incidences among studies of TAP in ICU patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12982-022-00116-9.

GSEM modelling of published ICU infection prevention data from > 250 studies enables a test of and provides support to the interaction between Candida and Gram-positive bacteria.

The various ICU infection prevention interventions may each broadly impact the patient microbiome.

[Update of the recommendations of the Pneumonia Zero project]

La pandemia por el SARS-Cov-2 ha impactado negativamente en la aplicación de las recomendaciones de Neumonía Zero y se ha acompañado de un incremento de las tasas de Neumonía asociada a ventilación mecánica (NAVM) en las unidades de cuidados intensivos de España. Con el objetivo de disminuir las tasas actuales a 7 episodios por 1000 días de VM, se han actualizado las recomendaciones del proyecto inicial.

Se identificaron, 27 medidas que se clasificaron en 12 medidas funcionales (posición semisentada, higiene estricta de manos, entrenamiento para manipular la vía aérea, valoración diaria de posible extubación, protocolización del destete, traqueostomía precoz, ventilación no invasiva, vigilancia microbiológica, cambio de tubuladuras, humidificación, fisioterapia respiratoria, nutrición enteral postpilórica), 7 mecánicas (control de la presión del neumotaponamiento, tubos con aspiración subglótica, nutrición con sondas de bajo calibre/en intestino delgado, aspiración de secreciones con circuitos cerrados/abiertos, filtros respiratorios, cepillado de dientes, técnicas de presión negativa en la aspiración de secreciones) y 8 farmacológicas (descontaminación selectiva digestiva, descontaminación orofaríngea, ciclo corto de antibióticos, higiene de boca con clorhexidina, antibióticos inhalados, rotación de antibióticos, probióticos, anticuerpos monoclonales).

Cada medida se analizó de forma independiente, por al menos dos miembros del grupo de trabajo, mediante una revisión sistemática de la literatura y una revisión iterativa de las recomendaciones de las sociedades científicas y/o grupos de expertos.

Para la clasificación de la calidad de la evidencia y fuerza de las recomendaciones se siguió la propuesta del grupo GRADE. Para determinar el grado de recomendación, cada medida fue puntuada por todos los miembros del grupo de trabajo en relación con su efectividad, tolerabilidad y aplicabilidad en las UCI españolas a corto plazo de tiempo. Se solicitó el apoyo de expertos externos en alguna de las medidas que se revisaron. Se seleccionaron aquellas medidas que alcanzaron la máxima puntuación.

Structural equation modelling the relationship between anti-fungal prophylaxis and Pseudomonas bacteremia in ICU patients

Purpose

Animal models implicate candida colonization facilitating invasive bacterial infections. The clinical relevance of this microbial interaction remains undefined and difficult to study directly. Observations from studies of anti-septic, antibiotic, anti-fungal, and non-decontamination-based interventions to prevent ICU acquired infection collectively serve as a natural experiment.

Methods

Three candidate generalized structural equation models (GSEM), with Candida and Pseudomonas colonization as latent variables, were confronted with blood culture and respiratory tract isolate data derived from 464 groups from 279 studies including studies of combined antibiotic and antifungal exposures within selective digestive decontamination (SDD) interventions.

Results

Introducing an interaction term between Candida colonization and Pseudomonas colonization substantially improved GSEM model fit. Model derived coefficients for singular exposure to anti-septic agents (− 1.23; − 2.1 to − 0.32), amphotericin (− 1.78; − 2.79 to − 0.78) and topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP; + 1.02; + 0.11 to + 1.93) versus Candida colonization were similar in magnitude but contrary in direction. By contrast, the model-derived coefficients for singular exposure to TAP, as with anti-septic agents, versus Pseudomonas colonization were weaker or non-significant. Singular exposure to amphotericin would be predicted to more than halve candidemia and Pseudomonas bacteremia incidences versus literature benchmarks for absolute differences of approximately one percentage point or less.

Conclusion

GSEM modelling of published data supports the postulated interaction between Candida and Pseudomonas colonization towards promoting bacteremia among ICU patients. This would be difficult to detect without GSEM modelling. The model indicates that anti-fungal agents have greater impact in preventing Pseudomonas bacteremia than TAP, which has no impact.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40635-022-00429-8.

A Simple Weaning Model Based on Interpretable Machine Learning Algorithm for Patients With Sepsis: A Research of MIMIC-IV and eICU Databases

Background

Invasive mechanical ventilation plays an important role in the prognosis of patients with sepsis. However, there are, currently, no tools specifically designed to assess weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with sepsis. The aim of our study was to develop a practical model to predict weaning in patients with sepsis.

Methods

We extracted patient information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database-IV (MIMIC-IV) and the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD). Kaplan–Meier curves were plotted to compare the 28-day mortality between patients who successfully weaned and those who failed to wean. Subsequently, MIMIC-IV was divided into a training set and an internal verification set, and the eICU-CRD was designated as the external verification set. We selected the best model to simplify the internal and external validation sets based on the performance of the model.

Results

A total of 5020 and 7081 sepsis patients with invasive mechanical ventilation in MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD were included, respectively. After matching, weaning was independently associated with 28-day mortality and length of ICU stay (p &lt; 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). After comparison, 35 clinical variables were extracted to build weaning models. XGBoost performed the best discrimination among the models in the internal and external validation sets (AUROC: 0.80 and 0.86, respectively). Finally, a simplified model was developed based on XGBoost, which included only four variables. The simplified model also had good predictive performance (AUROC:0.75 and 0.78 in internal and external validation sets, respectively) and was developed into a web-based tool for further review.

Conclusions

Weaning success is independently related to short-term mortality in patients with sepsis. The simplified model based on the XGBoost algorithm provides good predictive performance and great clinical applicablity for weaning, and a web-based tool was developed for better clinical application.

Selective digestive decontamination, a seemingly effective regimen with individual benefit or a flawed concept with population harm?

Selective digestive decontamination (SDD) regimens, variously constituted with topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP) and protocolized parenteral antibiotic prophylaxis (PPAP), appear highly effective for preventing ICU-acquired infections but only within randomized concurrent control trials (RCCT's). Confusingly, SDD is also a concept which, if true, implies population benefit. The SDD concept can finally be reified  in humans using the broad accumulated evidence base, including studies of TAP and PPAP that used non-concurrent controls (NCC), as a natural experiment. However, this test implicates overall population harm with higher event rates associated with SDD use within the ICU context.

Asymmetric Effects of Decontamination Using Topical Antibiotics for the ICU Patient

There are several antiseptic, antibiotic and non-decontamination-based interventions for preventing intensive care unit (ICU) acquired infection. These have been evaluated in >200 studies. Infection prevention using topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP) appears to be the most effective. Whether antibiotic use in the ICU may influence the risk of infection among concurrent control patients within the same ICU and result in asymmetrical herd effects cannot be resolved with individual studies examined in isolation. The collective observations within control and intervention groups from numerous ICU infection prevention studies simulates a multi-center natural experiment enabling the herd effects of antibiotics to be evaluated. Among the TAP control groups, the incidences for both ventilator associated pneumonia (VAP) and mortality are unusually high in comparison to literature-derived benchmarks. Paradoxically, amongst the TAP intervention groups, the incidences of mortality are also unusually high and the VAP incidences are similar (i.e., not lower) compared to the incidences among studies of other interventions. By contrast, the mortality incidences among the intervention groups of other studies are similar to those among the intervention groups of TAP studies. Using topical antibiotics to prevent infections acquired within the ICU environment may result in profoundly asymmetrical effects.

Can Prophylactic High Flow of Humidified and Warmed Filtered Air Improve Survival from Bacterial Pneumonia and SARS-CoV-2 in Elderly Individuals? The Role of Surfactant Protein A

In this opinion article, we discuss a serendipitous observation we made in a study investigating survival in aged mice after bacterial infection. This observation involved a non-invasive ventilation approach that led to variable and higher survival in male and female mice with different genetic backgrounds for the innate immune molecule, surfactant protein A (SP-A). We suggest that employing the best ventilatory modality, whether that be HFNC or another method, may augment the role of other factors such as SP-A genetics and sex in a personalized approach, and may ultimately improve the outcome.