Tau-PET is superior to phospho-tau when predicting cognitive decline in symptomatic AD patients

Plasma pTau181 enhances the prediction of future clinical decline in amyloid-positive mild cognitive impairment

Abstract

Plasma pTau181, a marker of amyloid and tau burden, was evaluated as a prognostic predictor of clinical decline and Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression of amyloid-positive (Aβ+) patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The training cohort for constructing the Bayesian prediction models comprised 135 Aβ+ MCI clinical trial placebo subjects. Performance was evaluated in two validation cohorts. An 18-month ≥1 increase in the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes was the clinical decline criterion. Baseline plasma pTau181 concentration matched clinical assessments' prediction performance. Adding pTau181 to clinical assessments significantly improved the prediction of an 18-month clinical decline and the 36-month progression from Aβ+ MCI to AD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the latter increased from 71.8% to 79%, and the hazard ratio for time-to-progression improved from 2.26 to 3.11 (p < 0.0001). Baseline plasma pTau181 has the potential for identifying Aβ+ MCI subjects with faster clinical decline over time.

Highlights

This study assessed pTau181 as a prognostic predictor of 18-month clinical decline and extended progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in amyloid-positive patients with mild cognitive impairment (Aβ+ MCI).The research findings underscore the promise of baseline plasma pTau181 as a screening tool for identifying Aβ+ MCI individuals with accelerated clinical decline within a standard 18-month clinical trial period. The predictive accuracy is notably enhanced when combined with clinical assessments.Similar positive outcomes were noted in forecasting the extended progression of Aβ+ MCI subjects to AD.

Revised criteria for diagnosis and staging of Alzheimer's disease: Alzheimer's Association Workgroup

The National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer's Association convened three separate work groups in 2011 and single work groups in 2012 and 2018 to create recommendations for the diagnosis and characterization of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The present document updates the 2018 research framework in response to several recent developments. Defining diseases biologically, rather than based on syndromic presentation, has long been standard in many areas of medicine (e.g., oncology), and is becoming a unifying concept common to all neurodegenerative diseases, not just AD. The present document is consistent with this principle. Our intent is to present objective criteria for diagnosis and staging AD, incorporating recent advances in biomarkers, to serve as a bridge between research and clinical care. These criteria are not intended to provide step-by-step clinical practice guidelines for clinical workflow or specific treatment protocols, but rather serve as general principles to inform diagnosis and staging of AD that reflect current science. HIGHLIGHTS: We define Alzheimer's disease (AD) to be a biological process that begins with the appearance of AD neuropathologic change (ADNPC) while people are asymptomatic. Progression of the neuropathologic burden leads to the later appearance and progression of clinical symptoms. Early-changing Core 1 biomarkers (amyloid positron emission tomography [PET], approved cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers, and accurate plasma biomarkers [especially phosphorylated tau 217]) map onto either the amyloid beta or AD tauopathy pathway; however, these reflect the presence of ADNPC more generally (i.e., both neuritic plaques and tangles). An abnormal Core 1 biomarker result is sufficient to establish a diagnosis of AD and to inform clinical decision making throughout the disease continuum. Later-changing Core 2 biomarkers (biofluid and tau PET) can provide prognostic information, and when abnormal, will increase confidence that AD is contributing to symptoms. An integrated biological and clinical staging scheme is described that accommodates the fact that common copathologies, cognitive reserve, and resistance may modify relationships between clinical and biological AD stages.

Prediction of future cognitive decline among cognitively unimpaired individuals using measures of soluble phosphorylated tau or tau tangle pathology

Plasma p-tau217 and Tau-PET are strong prognostic biomarkers in Alzheimer's disease (AD), but their relative performance in predicting future cognitive decline among cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals is unclear. In this head-to-head comparison study including 9 cohorts and 1534 individuals, we found that plasma p-tau217 and medial temporal lobe Tau-PET signal showed similar associations with cognitive decline on a global cognitive composite test (R2 PET=0.32 vs R2 PLASMA=0.32, pdifference=0.812) and with progression to mild cognitive impairment (Hazard ratio[HR]PET=1.56[1.43-1.70] vs HRPLASMA=1.63[1.50-1.77], pdifference=0.627). Combined plasma and PET models were superior to the single biomarker models (R2=0.36, p<0.01). Furthermore, sequential selection using plasma p-tau217 and then Tau-PET reduced the number of participants required for a clinical trial by 94%, compared to a 75% reduction when using plasma p-tau217 alone. We conclude that plasma p-tau217 and Tau-PET showed similar performance for predicting future cognitive decline in CU individuals, and their sequential use (i.e., plasma p-tau217 followed by Tau-PET in a subset with high plasma p-tau217) is useful for screening in clinical trials in preclinical AD.

MRI-Derived AD Signature of Cortical Thinning and Plasma P-Tau217 for Predicting Alzheimer Dementia Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Background and Objectives

Structural brain MRI and blood-based phosphorylated tau (p-tau) measures are among the least invasive and least expensive Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers to date. The extent to which these biomarkers may outperform one another in predicting future Alzheimer dementia diagnosis is poorly understood, however. This study investigated 2 specific AD biomarkers, i.e., a cortical thickness signature of AD (AD-CT) and plasma p-tau217, for predicting Alzheimer dementia.

Methods

Data came from community-dwelling older participants of the Religious Orders Study or the Rush Memory and Aging Project. AD-CT was obtained from 3T MRI scans using a magnetization-prepared rapid acquisition gradient echo sequence and by averaging thickness from previously identified cortical regions implicated in AD. Plasma p-tau217 was quantified using an immunoassay developed by Lilly Research Laboratories on the MSD platform. Both MRI scans and blood specimens were collected at the same visits, and subsequent diagnoses of Alzheimer dementia were determined through annual detailed clinical evaluations. Cox proportional hazards models examined the associations of the 2 biomarkers with incident Alzheimer dementia, and prediction accuracy was assessed using c-statistics.

Results

A total of 198 older adults, on average 84 years of age, were included. Over a mean follow-up of 4 years, 60 (30%) individuals developed Alzheimer dementia. AD-CT (hazard ratio: 1.71, 95% CI 1.26-2.31) and separately plasma p-tau217 (hazard ratio: 2.57, 95% CI 1.83-3.61) were associated with incident Alzheimer dementia. The c-statistic for prediction accuracy was consistently higher for plasma p-tau217 (between 0.74 and 0.81) than AD-CT (between 0.70 and 0.75) across a range of time horizons. Furthermore, with both biomarkers included in the same model, there was only modest improvement in the c-statistic due to AD-CT.

Discussion

Plasma p-tau217 outperforms an imaging-based cortical thickness signature of AD in predicting future Alzheimer dementia diagnosis. Furthermore, the AD cortical thickness signature adds little to the prediction accuracy above and beyond plasma p-tau217.

A machine learning-based prediction of tau load and distribution in Alzheimer's disease using plasma, MRI and clinical variables

Tau positron emission tomography (PET) is a reliable neuroimaging technique for assessing regional load of tau pathology in the brain, commonly used in Alzheimer's disease (AD) research and clinical trials. However, its routine clinical use is limited by cost and accessibility barriers. Here we explore using machine learning (ML) models to predict clinically useful tau-PET outcomes from low-cost and non-invasive features, e.g., basic clinical variables, plasma biomarkers, and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Results demonstrated that models including plasma biomarkers yielded highly accurate predictions of tau-PET burden (best model: R-squared=0.66-0.68), with especially high contribution from plasma P-tau217. In contrast, MRI variables stood out as best predictors (best model: R-squared=0.28-0.42) of asymmetric tau load between the two hemispheres (an example of clinically relevant spatial information). The models showed high generalizability to external test cohorts with data collected at multiple sites. Based on these results, we also propose a proof-of-concept two-step classification workflow, demonstrating how the ML models can be translated to a clinical setting. This study reveals current potential in predicting tau-PET information from scalable cost-effective variables, which could improve diagnosis and prognosis of AD.

Default mode network tau predicts future clinical decline in atypical early Alzheimer's disease

Identifying individuals with early stage Alzheimer's disease (AD) at greater risk of steeper clinical decline would allow professionals and loved ones to make better-informed medical, support, and life planning decisions. Despite accumulating evidence on the clinical prognostic value of tau PET in typical late-onset amnestic AD, its utility in predicting clinical decline in individuals with atypical forms of AD remains unclear. In this study, we examined the relationship between baseline tau PET signal and the rate of subsequent clinical decline in a sample of 48 A+/T+/N+ patients with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia due to AD with atypical clinical phenotypes (Posterior Cortical Atrophy, logopenic variant Primary Progressive Aphasia, and amnestic syndrome with multi-domain impairment and age of onset < 65 years). All patients underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), tau (18F-Flortaucipir) PET, and amyloid (either 18F-Florbetaben or 11C-Pittsburgh Compound B) PET scans at baseline. Each patient's longitudinal clinical decline was assessed by calculating the annualized change in the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum-of-Boxes (CDR-SB) scores from baseline to follow-up (mean time interval = 14.55 ± 3.97 months). Our sample of early atypical AD patients showed an increase in CDR-SB by 1.18 ± 1.25 points per year: t(47) = 6.56, p < .001, d = 0.95. These AD patients showed prominent baseline tau burden in posterior cortical regions including the major nodes of the default mode network, including the angular gyrus, posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus, and lateral temporal cortex. Greater baseline tau in the broader default mode network predicted faster clinical decline. Tau in the default mode network was the strongest predictor of clinical decline, outperforming baseline clinical impairment, tau in other functional networks, and the magnitude of cortical atrophy and amyloid burden in the default mode network. Overall, these findings point to the contribution of baseline tau burden within the default mode network of the cerebral cortex to predicting the magnitude of clinical decline in a sample of atypical early AD patients one year later. This simple measure based on a tau PET scan could aid the development of a personalized prognostic, monitoring, and treatment plan tailored to each individual patient, which would help clinicians not only predict the natural evolution of the disease but also estimate the effect of disease-modifying therapies on slowing subsequent clinical decline given the patient's tau burden while still early in the disease course.

Biomarker-based staging of Alzheimer disease: rationale and clinical applications

Disease staging, whereby the spatial extent and load of brain pathology are used to estimate the severity of Alzheimer disease (AD), is pivotal to the gold-standard neuropathological diagnosis of AD. Current in vivo diagnostic frameworks for AD are based on abnormal concentrations of amyloid-β and tau in the cerebrospinal fluid or on PET scans, and breakthroughs in molecular imaging have opened up the possibility of in vivo staging of AD. Focusing on the key principles of disease staging shared across several areas of medicine, this Review highlights the potential for in vivo staging of AD to transform our understanding of preclinical AD, refine enrolment criteria for trials of disease-modifying therapies and aid clinical decision-making in the era of anti-amyloid therapeutics. We provide a state-of-the-art review of recent biomarker-based AD staging systems and highlight their contributions to the understanding of the natural history of AD. Furthermore, we outline hypothetical frameworks to stage AD severity using more accessible fluid biomarkers. In addition, by applying amyloid PET-based staging to recently published anti-amyloid therapeutic trials, we highlight how biomarker-based disease staging frameworks could illustrate the numerous pathological changes that have already taken place in individuals with mildly symptomatic AD. Finally, we discuss challenges related to the validation and standardization of disease staging and provide a forward-looking perspective on potential clinical applications.

A blood-based biomarker workflow for optimal tau-PET referral in memory clinic settings

Blood-based biomarkers for screening may guide tau positrion emissition tomography (PET) scan referrals to optimize prognostic evaluation in Alzheimer's disease. Plasma Aβ42/Aβ40, pTau181, pTau217, pTau231, NfL, and GFAP were measured along with tau-PET in memory clinic patients with subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment or dementia, in the Swedish BioFINDER-2 study (n = 548) and in the TRIAD study (n = 179). For each plasma biomarker, cutoffs were determined for 90%, 95%, or 97.5% sensitivity to detect tau-PET-positivity. We calculated the percentage of patients below the cutoffs (who would not undergo tau-PET; "saved scans") and the tau-PET-positivity rate among participants above the cutoffs (who would undergo tau-PET; "positive predictive value"). Generally, plasma pTau217 performed best. At the 95% sensitivity cutoff in both cohorts, pTau217 resulted in avoiding nearly half tau-PET scans, with a tau-PET-positivity rate among those who would be referred for a scan around 70%. And although tau-PET was strongly associated with subsequent cognitive decline, in BioFINDER-2 it predicted cognitive decline only among individuals above the referral cutoff on plasma pTau217, supporting that this workflow could reduce prognostically uninformative tau-PET scans. In conclusion, plasma pTau217 may guide selection of patients for tau-PET, when accurate prognostic information is of clinical value.

Comparison of plasma biomarkers and amyloid PET for predicting memory decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals

BACKGROUND

We compared the ability of several plasma biomarkers versus amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) to predict rates of memory decline among cognitively unimpaired individuals.

METHODS

We studied 645 Mayo Clinic Study of Aging participants. Predictor variables were age, sex, education, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 genotype, amyloid PET, and plasma amyloid beta (Aβ)42/40, phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181, neurofilament light (NfL), glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), and p-tau217. The outcome was a change in a memory composite measure.

RESULTS

All plasma biomarkers, except NfL, were associated with mean memory decline in models with individual biomarkers. However, amyloid PET and plasma p-tau217, along with age, were key variables independently associated with mean memory decline in models combining all predictors. Confidence intervals were narrow for estimates of population mean prediction, but person-level prediction intervals were wide.

DISCUSSION

Plasma p-tau217 and amyloid PET provide useful information about predicting rates of future cognitive decline in cognitively unimpaired individuals at the population mean level, but not at the individual person level.

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative in the era of Alzheimer's disease treatment: A review of ADNI studies from 2021 to 2022

The Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) aims to improve Alzheimer's disease (AD) clinical trials. Since 2006, ADNI has shared clinical, neuroimaging, and cognitive data, and biofluid samples. We used conventional search methods to identify 1459 publications from 2021 to 2022 using ADNI data/samples and reviewed 291 impactful studies. This review details how ADNI studies improved disease progression understanding and clinical trial efficiency. Advances in subject selection, detection of treatment effects, harmonization, and modeling improved clinical trials and plasma biomarkers like phosphorylated tau showed promise for clinical use. Biomarkers of amyloid beta, tau, neurodegeneration, inflammation, and others were prognostic with individualized prediction algorithms available online. Studies supported the amyloid cascade, emphasized the importance of neuroinflammation, and detailed widespread heterogeneity in disease, linked to genetic and vascular risk, co-pathologies, sex, and resilience. Biological subtypes were consistently observed. Generalizability of ADNI results is limited by lack of cohort diversity, an issue ADNI-4 aims to address by enrolling a diverse cohort.

The impact of tau deposition and hypometabolism on cognitive impairment and longitudinal cognitive decline

INTRODUCTION

Tau and neurodegeneration strongly correlate with cognitive impairment, as compared to amyloid. However, their contribution in explaining cognition and predicting cognitive decline in memory clinics remains unclarified.

METHODS

We included 94 participants with Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), tau positron emission tomography (PET), amyloid PET, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, and MRI scans from Geneva Memory Center. Linear regression and mediation analyses tested the independent and combined association between biomarkers, cognitive performance, and decline. Linear mixed-effects and Cox proportional hazards models assessed biomarkers' prognostic values.

RESULTS

Metabolism had the strongest association with cognition (r = 0.712; p < 0.001), followed by tau (r = -0.682; p < 0.001). Neocortical tau showed the strongest association with cognitive decline (r = -0.677; p < 0.001). Metabolism mediated the association between tau and cognition and marginally mediated the one with decline. Tau positivity represented the strongest risk factor for decline (hazard ratio = 32).

DISCUSSION

Tau and neurodegeneration synergistically contribute to global cognitive impairment while tau drives decline. The tau PET superior prognostic value supports its implementation in memory clinics.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hypometabolism has the strongest association with concurrent cognitive impairment. Neocortical tau pathology is the main determinant of cognitive decline over time. FDG-PET has a superior value compared to MRI as a measure of neurodegeneration. The prognostic value of tau-PET exceeded all other neuroimaging modalities.

Targeted examination of amyloid beta and tau protein accumulation via positron emission tomography for the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease based on the A/T(N) research framework

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases among the older population. Its main pathological features include the abnormal deposition of extracellular amyloid-β plaques and the intracellular neurofibrillary tangles of tau proteins. Its clinical presentation is complex. This review introduces the pathological processes in AD and other common neurodegenerative diseases. It then discusses the positron emission tomography (PET) probes that target amyloid-β plaques and tau proteins for diagnosing AD. According to the A/T(N) research framework, combined targeted amyloid-β and tau protein detection via PET to further improve the diagnostic accuracy of AD. In particular, the properties of the 18F-flortaucipir and 18F-MK6240 tracers-may be more beneficial in helping to differentiate AD from other common neurodegenerative diseases, such as dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson's disease dementia, and frontotemporal dementia. Furthermore, the A/T(N) research framework should be used as the clinical diagnosis model of AD in the future.

The Predictive Ability of Blood Neurofilament Light Chain in Predicting Cognitive Decline in the Alzheimer's Disease Continuum: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disease with insidious onset. Identifying candidate predictors to forecast AD dementia risk before disease onset is crucial for early diagnosis and treatment.

Objective

We aimed to assess the predictive ability of blood neurofilament light (NfL) chain in anticipating cognitive decline in the AD continuum.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase from inception until April 7, 2023. Longitudinal observational studies examining the association between baseline blood NfL and cognitive decline or clinical disease conversion were included based on inclusion/exclusion criteria. The final effect size was represented by adjusted hazard ratios (HR) or standardized beta (s.β) coefficients with a 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

A total of 2,862 articles were identified, and 26 studies were included in this meta-analysis. The results indicated that baseline blood NfL could predict cognitive decline, with MMSE [s.β= -0.17, 95% CI (-0.26, -0.07)]; PACC [s.β= -0.09, 95% CI (-0.16, -0.03)]; ADAS-cog [s.β= 0.21, 95% CI (0.13, 0.29)]; CDR-SOB [s.β= 0.27, 95% CI (0.03, 0.50)]; Global cognitive composite [s.β= -0.05, 95% CI (-0.08, -0.01)]; Memory subdomain [s.β= -0.06, 95% CI (-0.09, -0.03)]; Language subdomain [s.β= -0.07, 95% CI (-0.10, -0.05)]; Executive function subdomain [s.β= -0.02, 95% CI (-0.03, -0.01)]; Visuospatial subdomain [s.β= -0.06, 95% CI (-0.08, -0.04)]. Additionally, baseline blood NfL could predict disease progression (conversion from CU/SCD/MCI to MCI/AD) in the AD continuum [Adjust HR = 1.32, 95% CI (1.12, 1.56)].

Conclusions

Baseline blood NfL demonstrated predictive capabilities for global cognition and its memory, language, executive function, visuospatial subdomains decline in the AD continuum. Moreover, it exhibited the potential to predict disease progression in non-AD dementia participants.

Tau: a biomarker of Huntington's disease

Developing effective treatments for patients with Huntington's disease (HD)-a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by severe cognitive, motor and psychiatric impairments-is proving extremely challenging. While the monogenic nature of this condition enables to identify individuals at risk, robust biomarkers would still be extremely valuable to help diagnose disease onset and progression, and especially to confirm treatment efficacy. If measurements of cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament levels, for example, have demonstrated use in recent clinical trials, other proteins may prove equal, if not greater, relevance as biomarkers. In fact, proteins such as tau could specifically be used to detect/predict cognitive affectations. We have herein reviewed the literature pertaining to the association between tau levels and cognitive states, zooming in on Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease and traumatic brain injury in which imaging, cerebrospinal fluid, and blood samples have been interrogated or used to unveil a strong association between tau and cognition. Collectively, these areas of research have accrued compelling evidence to suggest tau-related measurements as both diagnostic and prognostic tools for clinical practice. The abundance of information retrieved in this niche of study has laid the groundwork for further understanding whether tau-related biomarkers may be applied to HD and guide future investigations to better understand and treat this disease.

CSF MTBR-tau243 is a specific biomarker of tau tangle pathology in Alzheimer's disease

Aggregated insoluble tau is one of two defining features of Alzheimer's disease. Because clinical symptoms are strongly correlated with tau aggregates, drug development and clinical diagnosis need cost-effective and accessible specific fluid biomarkers of tau aggregates; however, recent studies suggest that the fluid biomarkers currently available cannot specifically track tau aggregates. We show that the microtubule-binding region (MTBR) of tau containing the residue 243 (MTBR-tau243) is a new cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker specific for insoluble tau aggregates and compared it to multiple other phosphorylated tau measures (p-tau181, p-tau205, p-tau217 and p-tau231) in two independent cohorts (BioFINDER-2, n = 448; and Knight Alzheimer Disease Research Center, n = 219). MTBR-tau243 was most strongly associated with tau-positron emission tomography (PET) and cognition, whereas showing the lowest association with amyloid-PET. In combination with p-tau205, MTBR-tau243 explained most of the total variance in tau-PET burden (0.58 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.75) and the performance in predicting cognitive measures (0.34 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.48) approached that of tau-PET (0.44 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.52). MTBR-tau243 levels longitudinally increased with insoluble tau aggregates, unlike CSF p-tau species. CSF MTBR-tau243 is a specific biomarker of tau aggregate pathology, which may be utilized in interventional trials and in the diagnosis of patients. Based on these findings, we propose to revise the A/T/(N) criteria to include MTBR-tau243 as representing insoluble tau aggregates ('T').

Blood biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease in clinical practice and trials

Blood-based biomarkers hold great promise to revolutionize the diagnostic and prognostic work-up of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in clinical practice. This is very timely, considering the recent development of anti-amyloid-β (Aβ) immunotherapies. Several assays for measuring phosphorylated tau (p-tau) in plasma exhibit high diagnostic accuracy in distinguishing AD from all other neurodegenerative diseases in patients with cognitive impairment. Prognostic models based on plasma p-tau levels can also predict future development of AD dementia in patients with mild cognitive complaints. The use of such high-performing plasma p-tau assays in the clinical practice of specialist memory clinics would reduce the need for more costly investigations involving cerebrospinal fluid samples or positron emission tomography. Indeed, blood-based biomarkers already facilitate identification of individuals with pre-symptomatic AD in the context of clinical trials. Longitudinal measurements of such biomarkers will also improve the detection of relevant disease-modifying effects of new drugs or lifestyle interventions.