On the Counterfactual Nature of Gambling Near-misses: An Experimental Study

The modulation of reward expectancy on the processing of near-miss outcomes: An ERP study

A near-miss is a situation in which a gambler almost wins but falls short by a small margin, which motivates gambling by making it feel like success is within reach. Existing research has extensively investigated the influence of contextual information on near-miss outcome processing; however, the impact of reward expectancy has received limited attention thus far. To address this gap, we utilized the wheel of fortune task and event-related potential technique (ERP) to quantify the electrophysiological responses associated with gambling outcomes at different levels of reward expectancy. Behaviorally, near-miss outcomes elicited a greater occurrence of counterfactual thoughts, feelings of regret, and heightened anticipation of rewards for subsequent trials compared to full-miss outcomes. ERP findings indicated that in contrast to full-miss outcomes, near-miss outcomes diminished feedback-related negativities (FRNs) and amplified P300s when reward expectancy was low, but amplified FRNs and diminished P300s when reward expectancy was high. These findings provide valuable insights into the neural mechanisms underlying the processing of outcome proximity and reward expectancy.

Promoting Adolescent Safer Gambling Through Self-Referent Counterfactual Thinking and Knowledge of Probabilistic Outcome

Research have continued to advocate for various safer gambling strategies (SGs) to curb initiation and sustenance of problem gambling through the conceptualization and development of SG tools. The present study aims to extend this advocacy by examining cognitive processes that promote adolescent responsible gambling (RG) in Nigeria. Young adolescents (N = 962, Mage =16.06, SD = 4.12) recruited from a high school population responded to measures of self-referent counterfactual thinking (S-RCFT), knowledge of probabilistic outcomes (KPO), and RG. Hayes PROCESS macro analysis result showed that S-RCFTs and KPO were positively associated with RG. More importantly, it was revealed that KPO amplified the S-RCFT-RG link and provided a plausible pathway to understanding the effect of S-RCFT on RG. This calls for SG advocacies to encourage adolescent gamblers to hold themselves responsible for responsible gambling, and to understand that gambling wins randomly occur. The limitations of the study and recommendations are highlighted.

For Better and For Worse: Frequent Gamblers Use Dual Counterfactuals to Justify Continued Gambling

How might frequent gamblers convince themselves to keep playing despite persistent losses or after a win that should be savored? The purpose of this research is to examine the unexplored question of how frequent gamblers' use counterfactual thinking to motivate their desire to continue gambling. Using a sample of n = 69 high and n = 69 low frequency gamblers in a field setting, we found that infrequent gamblers tended to consider how the perceived outcome of losing "could have been better" (i.e., upward counterfactual thinking), and how a winning outcome "could have been worse" (i.e., downward counterfactual thinking). This pattern of counterfactual thinking is considered typical in many settings and may, in a gambling context, support a potentially more responsible approach by helping infrequent gamblers to learn from past mistakes to avoid significant future losses and to savor wins to protect returns gained. Alternatively, we found that frequent gamblers were more likely to generate 'dual counterfactuals' which include both upward and downward counterfactuals in response to losses and wins. We argue that this dual pattern of counterfactual thinking may allow frequent gamblers to more easily justify their desire to continue gambling. Findings suggest that challenging gamblers counterfactual thinking patterns could assist clinicians in moderating the potential for high-risk behaviors.

Near-Misses Predict Youth Gambling Intention via Illusion of Control

We examined the moderating role of an illusion of control (IOC) in the differential contributions of forms of near-miss (NM) in youths intent to gamble in Nigeria (n = 60, mean age = 18.05, SD = 3.81) using a randomized group design. Data were obtained by means of the gambling episode stimulus material that varied NM into early-miss, late-miss, near-win and near-loss groups, and self-report measures of IOC and gambling intention. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) result showed that NM groups differed significantly on gambling intention. HAYES PROCESS macro moderation analysis results of NM categories as dummy variables showed that early miss had a non-significant negative effect on gambling intention, late miss had a significant positive effect on gambling intention, near win had a significant positive effect on gambling intention, IOC had a negative effect on gambling intention, and negatively moderated the effect of early win on gambling.

Dynamic expectations: Behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second updates in reward predictions

Expectations are often dynamic: sports fans know that expectations are rapidly updated as games unfold. Yet expectations have traditionally been studied as static. Here we present behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second changes in expectations using slot machines as a case study. In Study 1, we demonstrate that EEG signal before the slot machine stops varies based on proximity to winning. Study 2 introduces a behavioral paradigm to measure dynamic expectations via betting, and shows that expectation trajectories vary as a function of winning proximity. Notably, these expectation trajectories parallel Study 1's EEG activity. Studies 3 (EEG) and 4 (behavioral) replicate these findings in the loss domain. These four studies provide compelling evidence that dynamic sub-second updates in expectations can be behaviorally and electrophysiologically measured. Our research opens promising avenues for understanding the dynamic nature of reward expectations and their impact on cognitive processes.

Engineered highs: Reward variability and frequency as potential prerequisites of behavioural addiction

Influential learning-based accounts of substance addictions posit the attribution of incentive salience to drug-associated cues, and its escalation by the direct dopaminergic effects of drugs. In translating this account to disordered gambling, we have noted how the intermittent nature of monetary rewards in gambling (i.e. the variable ratio) may allow for analogous learning processes, via effects on dopaminergic signalling. The aim of the present article is to consider how multiple sources of reward variability operate within modern gambling products, and how similar sources of variability, as well as some novel sources of variability, also apply to other digital products implicated in behavioural addictions, including gaming, shopping, social media and online pornography. Online access to these activities facilitates not only unparalleled accessibility but also introduces novel forms of reward variability, as seen in the effects of infinite scrolls and personalized recommendations. We use the term uncertainty to refer to the subjective experience of reward variability. We further highlight two psychological factors that appear to moderate the effects of uncertainty: 1) the timecourse of uncertainty, especially with regard to its resolution, 2) the frequency of exposure, allowing temporal compression. Collectively, the evidence illustrates how qualitative and quantitative variability of reward can confer addictive potential to non-drug reinforcers by exploiting the psychological and neural processes that rely on predictability to guide reward seeking behaviour.

Dynamic expectations: Behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second updates in reward predictions

Expectations are often dynamic: any sports fan knows that expectations are rapidly updated as games unfold. Yet expectations have traditionally been studied as static. Here, using slot machines as a case study, we provide parallel behavioral and electrophysiological evidence of sub-second moment-to-moment changes in expectations. In Study 1, we show that the dynamics of the EEG signal before the slot machine stopped differed depending on the nature of the outcome, including not only whether the participant won or lost, but also how close they came to winning. In line with our predictions, Near Win Before outcomes (the slot machine stops one item before a match) were similar to Wins, but different than Near Win After (the machine stops one item after a match) and Full Miss (the machine stops two or three items from a match). In Study 2, we designed a novel behavioral paradigm to measure moment-to-moment changes in expectations via dynamic betting. We found that different outcomes also elicited unique expectation trajectories in the deceleration phase. Notably, these behavioral expectation trajectories paralleled Study 1's EEG activity in the last second prior to the machine's stop. In Studies 3 (EEG) and 4 (behavior) we replicated these findings in the loss domain where a match entails a loss. Again, we found a significant correlation between behavioral and EEG results. These four studies provide the first evidence that dynamic sub-second updates in expectations can be behaviorally and electrophysiologically measured. Our findings open up new avenues for studying the ongoing dynamics of reward expectations and their role in healthy and unhealthy cognition.

Mediating Role of Impulsivity in the Contributory Roles of Upward Versus Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Youth Gambling Intention

The proliferation of gambling shops, and the growing gambling prevalence in Nigeria, youths have constantly engaged in gambling activities even during school period. This has raised concerns among therapists and parents as the trend could degenerate to problem gambling and its associated psychosocial problems if left unchecked. Our study examined the role of impulsivity as a mediator in the association between two types of counterfactual thinking (CFT) and gambling intention in a non-clinical sample. A self-report measure containing South Oaks Gambling Screen: Reversed for Adolescents (SOGS: RA), CFT, and impulsivity scales was completed by 371 Nigerian adolescents who had gambled for money (mean age = 17.37 years; SD = 4.13). After controlling for age, increase in downward CFT was associated with decreased gambling intention, whereas increase in upward CFT and impulsivity were associated with increased gambling intention. Upward CFT contributed more to gambling intention than downward CFT. Mediation result showed that Impulsivity significantly mediated only the association between upward CFT and gambling intention. We concluded that gambling therapies should include treatment packages that enhance impulse control abilities and gambling-related downward CFT and at the same time, attenuate gambling-related upward CFT.

Autonomic responses during Gambling: the Effect of Outcome Type and Sex in a large community sample of young adults

Psychological theories consider autonomic arousal to be a reinforcer for problem gambling. Structural characteristics such as near-misses, which are non-win events that come close to a real win, have been shown to elicit win-like responses while increasing motivation and gambling persistence. This study investigated the autonomic and subjective responses of young adults to different gambling outcomes. This study also investigated sex differences in autonomic and subjective responses to different gambling outcomes.Participants from Sweden (n = 270) performed a computerized slot machine task that produced wins, near-misses (before and after payline) and full-misses. Phasic measurements of heart rate (HR) and skin conductance responses (SCR) were recorded during gambling performance and ratings of perceived chance of winning, pleasure and motivation to play were collected following each gambling outcome.Autonomic responses differed across slot machine outcomes as indicated by HR and SCR. Compared with other gambling outcomes, near-misses elicited the largest HR accelerations, and they also elicited larger HR decelerations and SCRs relative to full-misses. Near-misses before and after payline elicited differential psychophysiological responses and subjective reports, suggesting different emotional processing of near-miss subtypes. Females showed increased SCRs and motivation following win outcomes compared with males.In conclusion, wins, near-misses and full-misses generate differential physiological and subjective responses among young adults. Autonomic responses to wins differed between male and female players, emphasizing the need to consider sex differences when investigating the role of autonomic arousal in gambling.

"Should've known better": Counterfactual processing in disordered gambling

Counterfactual thinking is a component of human decision-making that entails "if only" thinking about unselected choices and outcomes. It is associated with strong emotional responses of regret (when the obtained outcome is inferior to the counterfactual) and relief (vice versa). Counterfactual thinking may play a role in various cognitive phenomena in disordered gambling, such as the effects of near-misses. This study compared individuals with gambling disorder (n = 46) and healthy controls (n = 25) on a behavioural economic choice task that entailed choosing between two gambles, designed to measure counterfactual thinking. Participants provided affect ratings following both the obtained and the non-obtained outcomes. Choices were analyzed using a computational model that derived parameters reflecting sensitivity to expected value, risk variance, and anticipated regret. In the computational choice model, the group with gambling disorder showed increased sensitivity to anticipated regret, reduced sensitivity to expected value, and increased preference for high risk-variance gambles. On the affect ratings, the group with gambling disorder displayed blunted emotional sensitivity to obtained and counterfactual outcomes. Effect sizes of the group differences were modest. Participants with gambling disorder show wide-ranging alterations in decision-making processes and emotional reactivity to choice outcomes. Altered sensitivity to anticipatory regret in gambling disorder may contribute to the development of gambling-related cognitive distortions, and the influences of gambling marketing.

Dopaminergic signaling of uncertainty and the aetiology of gambling addiction

Although there is increasing clinical recognition of behavioral addictions, of which gambling disorder is the prototype example, there is a limited understanding of the psychological properties of (non-substance-related) behaviors that enable them to become 'addictive' in a way that is comparable to drugs of abuse. According to an influential application of reinforcement learning to substance addictions, the direct effects of drugs to release dopamine can create a perpetual escalation of incentive salience. This article focusses on reward uncertainty, which is proposed to be the core feature of gambling that creates the capacity for addiction. We describe the neuro-dynamics of the dopamine response to uncertainty that may allow a similar escalation of incentive salience, and its relevance to behavioral addictions. We review translational evidence from both preclinical animal models and human clinical research, including studies in people with gambling disorder. Further, we describe the evidence for 1) the effects of the omission of expected reward as a stressor and to promote sensitization, 2) the effect of the resolution of reward uncertainty as a source of value, 3) structural characteristics of modern Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs) in leveraging these mechanisms, 4) analogies to the aberrant salience hypothesis of psychosis for creating and maintaining gambling-related cognitive distortions. This neurobiologically-inspired model has implications for harm profiling of other putative behavioral addictions, as well as offering avenues for enhancing neurological, pharmacological and psychological treatments for gambling disorder, and harm reduction strategies for EGM design.

Neurophysiological Correlates of the Near-Miss Effect in Gambling

The near-miss effect in gambling refers to a losing situation that is (or perceived to be) close to a win by the gambler. This effect is one of the many cognitive distortions that can occur during gambling games. The main objective of the present study was to analyze the electrophysiological correlates of the near-miss effect via an event-related potential (ERP) study examining four distinct gambling outcomes: win, full miss, near-miss before the payline, and near-miss after the payline. This study comprised 23 healthy voluntary participants (10 women) with ages ranging between 19 and 34 years (M = 22.5; SD = 3.65). All participants completed the South Oaks Gambling Screen and played a computerized slot machine, programed to induce the near-miss effect and specifically designed for an ERP study. By splitting the near-miss effect in two subtypes (before and after the payline), increased feedback-related negativity (FRN) was found for the near-misses after the payline in comparison to losses and also to near-misses before the payline. Results also indicated an increased P300 amplitude for the near-misses before the payline compared both with losses and with near-misses after the payline. The results suggest that both FRN and P300 present different sensitivities to near-miss subtypes, suggesting a payline effect that is not demonstrated when the data of near-misses before and after the payline are analyzed together. This is the first study to analyze the effect of the near-miss subtype in an ERP study and confirms the findings of previous behavioral studies.

Cognitive distortions and gambling near-misses in Internet Gaming Disorder: A preliminary study

Increased cognitive distortions (i.e. biased processing of chance, probability and skill) are a key psychopathological process in disordered gambling. The present study investigated state and trait aspects of cognitive distortions in 22 individuals with Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) and 22 healthy controls. Participants completed the Gambling Related Cognitions Scale as a trait measure of cognitive distortions, and played a slot machine task delivering wins, near-misses and full-misses. Ratings of pleasure (“liking”) and motivation to play (“wanting”) were taken following the different outcomes, and gambling persistence was measured after a mandatory phase. IGD was associated with elevated trait cognitive distortions, in particular skill-oriented cognitions. On the slot machine task, the IGD group showed increased “wanting” ratings compared with control participants, while the two groups did not differ regarding their “liking” of the game. The IGD group displayed increased persistence on the slot machine task. Near-miss outcomes did not elicit stronger motivation to play compared to full-miss outcomes overall, and there was no group difference on this measure. However, a near-miss position effect was observed, such that near-misses stopping before the payline were rated as more motivating than near-misses that stopped after the payline, and this differentiation was attenuated in the IGD group, suggesting possible counterfactual thinking deficits in this group. These data provide preliminary evidence for increased incentive motivation and cognitive distortions in IGD, at least in the context of a chance-based gambling environment.

On the Counterfactual Nature of Gambling Near-misses: An Experimental Study

Research on gambling near-misses has shown that objectively equivalent outcomes can yield divergent emotional and motivational responses. The subjective processing of gambling outcomes is affected substantially by close but non-obtained outcomes (i.e. counterfactuals). In the current paper, we investigate how different types of near-misses influence self-perceived luck and subsequent betting behavior in a wheel-of-fortune task. We investigate the counterfactual mechanism of these effects by testing the relationship with a second task measuring regret/relief processing. Across two experiments (Experiment 1, n = 51; Experiment 2, n = 104), we demonstrate that near-wins (neutral outcomes that are close to a jackpot) decreased self-perceived luck, whereas near-losses (neutral outcomes that are close to a major penalty) increased luck ratings. The effects of near-misses varied by near-miss position (i.e. whether the spinner stopped just short of, or passed through, the counterfactual outcome), consistent with established distinctions between upward versus downward, and additive versus subtractive, counterfactual thinking. In Experiment 1, individuals who showed stronger counterfactual processing on the regret/relief task were more responsive to near-wins and near-losses on the wheel-of-fortune task. The effect of near-miss position was attenuated when the anticipatory phase (i.e. the spin and deceleration) was removed in Experiment 2. Further differences were observed within the objective gains and losses, between "clear" and "narrow" outcomes. Taken together, these results help substantiate the counterfactual mechanism of near-misses.