Verification of computational models of cardiac electro-physiology

Evaluation of an open-source pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models: A reproducibility study

This work presents an open-source software pipeline to create patient-specific left atrial models with fibre orientations and a fibrDEFAULTosis map, suitable for electrophysiology simulations, and quantifies the intra and inter observer reproducibility of the model creation. The semi-automatic pipeline takes as input a contrast enhanced magnetic resonance angiogram, and a late gadolinium enhanced (LGE) contrast magnetic resonance (CMR). Five operators were allocated 20 cases each from a set of 50 CMR datasets to create a total of 100 models to evaluate inter and intra-operator variability. Each output model consisted of: (1) a labelled surface mesh open at the pulmonary veins and mitral valve, (2) fibre orientations mapped from a diffusion tensor MRI (DTMRI) human atlas, (3) fibrosis map extracted from the LGE-CMR scan, and (4) simulation of local activation time (LAT) and phase singularity (PS) mapping. Reproducibility in our pipeline was evaluated by comparing agreement in shape of the output meshes, fibrosis distribution in the left atrial body, and fibre orientations. Reproducibility in simulations outputs was evaluated in the LAT maps by comparing the total activation times, and the mean conduction velocity (CV). PS maps were compared with the structural similarity index measure (SSIM). The users processed in total 60 cases for inter and 40 cases for intra-operator variability. Our workflow allows a single model to be created in 16.72 ± 12.25 min. Similarity was measured with shape, percentage of fibres oriented in the same direction, and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the fibrosis calculation. Shape differed noticeably only with users' selection of the mitral valve and the length of the pulmonary veins from the ostia to the distal end; fibrosis agreement was high, with ICC of 0.909 (inter) and 0.999 (intra); fibre orientation agreement was high with 60.63% (inter) and 71.77% (intra). The LAT showed good agreement, where the median ± IQR of the absolute difference of the total activation times was 2.02 ± 2.45 ms for inter, and 1.37 ± 2.45 ms for intra. Also, the average ± sd of the mean CV difference was -0.00404 ± 0.0155 m/s for inter, and 0.0021 ± 0.0115 m/s for intra. Finally, the PS maps showed a moderately good agreement in SSIM for inter and intra, where the mean ± sd SSIM for inter and intra were 0.648 ± 0.21 and 0.608 ± 0.15, respectively. Although we found notable differences in the models, as a consequence of user input, our tests show that the uncertainty caused by both inter and intra-operator variability is comparable with uncertainty due to estimated fibres, and image resolution accuracy of segmentation tools.

Credibility assessment of patient-specific computational modeling using patient-specific cardiac modeling as an exemplar

Reliable and robust simulation of individual patients using patient-specific models (PSMs) is one of the next frontiers for modeling and simulation (M&S) in healthcare. PSMs, which form the basis of digital twins, can be employed as clinical tools to, for example, assess disease state, predict response to therapy, or optimize therapy. They may also be used to construct virtual cohorts of patients, for in silico evaluation of medical product safety and/or performance. Methods and frameworks have recently been proposed for evaluating the credibility of M&S in healthcare applications. However, such efforts have generally been motivated by models of medical devices or generic patient models; how best to evaluate the credibility of PSMs has largely been unexplored. The aim of this paper is to understand and demonstrate the credibility assessment process for PSMs using patient-specific cardiac electrophysiological (EP) modeling as an exemplar. We first review approaches used to generate cardiac PSMs and consider how verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) apply to cardiac PSMs. Next, we execute two simulation studies using a publicly available virtual cohort of 24 patient-specific ventricular models, the first a multi-patient verification study, the second investigating the impact of uncertainty in personalized and non-personalized inputs in a virtual cohort. We then use the findings from our analyses to identify how important characteristics of PSMs can be considered when assessing credibility with the approach of the ASME V&V40 Standard, accounting for PSM concepts such as inter- and intra-user variability, multi-patient and “every-patient” error estimation, uncertainty quantification in personalized vs non-personalized inputs, clinical validation, and others. The results of this paper will be useful to developers of cardiac and other medical image based PSMs, when assessing PSM credibility.

Patient-specific models are computational models that have been personalized using data from a patient. After decades of research, recent computational, data science and healthcare advances have opened the door to the fulfilment of the enormous potential of such models, from truly personalized medicine to efficient and cost-effective testing of new medical products. However, reliability (credibility) of patient-specific models is key to their success, and there are currently no general guidelines for evaluating credibility of patient-specific models. Here, we consider how frameworks and model evaluation activities that have been developed for generic (not patient-specific) computational models, can be extended to patient specific models. We achieve this through a detailed analysis of the activities required to evaluate cardiac electrophysiological models, chosen as an exemplar field due to its maturity and the complexity of such models. This is the first paper on the topic of reliability of patient-specific models and will help pave the way to reliable and trusted patient-specific modeling across healthcare applications.

An Automata-Based Cardiac Electrophysiology Simulator to Assess Arrhythmia Inducibility

Personalized cardiac electrophysiology simulations have demonstrated great potential to study cardiac arrhythmias and help in therapy planning of radio-frequency ablation. Its application to analyze vulnerability to ventricular tachycardia and sudden cardiac death in infarcted patients has been recently explored. However, the detailed multi-scale biophysical simulations used in these studies are very demanding in terms of memory and computational resources, which prevents their clinical translation. In this work, we present a fast phenomenological system based on cellular automata (CA) to simulate personalized cardiac electrophysiology. The system is trained on biophysical simulations to reproduce cellular and tissue dynamics in healthy and pathological conditions, including action potential restitution, conduction velocity restitution and cell safety factor. We show that a full ventricular simulation can be performed in the order of seconds, emulate the results of a biophysical simulation and reproduce a patient’s ventricular tachycardia in a model that includes a heterogeneous scar region. The system could be used to study the risk of arrhythmia in infarcted patients for a large number of scenarios.

Evaluation framework for systems models

As decisions in drug development increasingly rely on predictions from mechanistic systems models, assessing the predictive capability of such models is becoming more important. Several frameworks for the development of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have been proposed. In this paper, we add to this body of work with a framework that focuses on the appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative model evaluation methods. We provide details and references for those wishing to apply these methods, which include sensitivity and identifiability analyses, as well as concepts such as validation and uncertainty quantification. Many of these methods have been used successfully in other fields, but are not as common in QSP modeling. We illustrate how to apply these methods to evaluate QSP models, and propose methods to use in two case studies. We also share examples of misleading results when inappropriate analyses are used.

Interactive 3D Human Heart Simulations on Segmented Human MRI Hearts

Understanding cardiac arrhythmic mechanisms and developing new strategies to control and terminate them using computer simulations requires realistic physiological cell models with anatomically accurate heart structures. Furthermore, numerical simulations must be fast enough to study and validate model and structure parameters. Here, we present an interactive parallel approach for solving detailed cell dynamics in high-resolution human heart structures with a local PC's GPU. In vitro human heart MRI scans were manually segmented to produce 3D structures with anatomically realistic electrophysiology. The Abubu.js library was used to create an interactive code to solve the OVVR human ventricular cell model and the FDA extension of the model in the human MRI heart structures, allowing the simulation of reentrant waves and investigation of their dynamics in real time. Interactive simulations of a physiological cell model in a detailed anatomical human heart reveals propagation of waves through the fine structures of the trabeculae and pectinate muscle that can perpetuate arrhythmias, thereby giving new insights into effects that may need to be considered when planning ablation and other defibrillation methods.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

An audit of uncertainty in multi-scale cardiac electrophysiology models

Models of electrical activation and recovery in cardiac cells and tissue have become valuable research tools, and are beginning to be used in safety-critical applications including guidance for clinical procedures and for drug safety assessment. As a consequence, there is an urgent need for a more detailed and quantitative understanding of the ways that uncertainty and variability influence model predictions. In this paper, we review the sources of uncertainty in these models at different spatial scales, discuss how uncertainties are communicated across scales, and begin to assess their relative importance. We conclude by highlighting important challenges that continue to face the cardiac modelling community, identifying open questions, and making recommendations for future studies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Cardiac Action Potential Models

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs-typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error-and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty. Rigorous comprehensive UQ/SA provides confidence that model-based decisions are robust to underlying uncertainties. However, comprehensive UQ/SA is not currently feasible for whole heart models, due to numerous factors including model complexity and difficulty in measuring variability in the many parameters. Here, we present a significant step to developing a framework to overcome these limitations. We: (i) developed a novel action potential (AP) model of moderate complexity (six currents, seven variables, 36 parameters); (ii) prescribed input variability for all parameters (not empirically derived); (iii) used a single "hyper-parameter" to study increasing levels of parameter uncertainty; (iv) performed UQ and SA for a range of model-derived quantities with physiological relevance; and (v) present quantitative and qualitative ways to analyze different behaviors that occur under parameter uncertainty, including "model failure". This is the first time uncertainty in every parameter (including conductances, steady-state parameters, and time constant parameters) of every ionic current in a cardiac model has been studied. This approach allowed us to demonstrate that, for this model, the simulated AP is fully robust to low levels of parameter uncertainty - to our knowledge the first time this has been shown of any cardiac model. A range of dynamics was observed at larger parameter uncertainty (e.g., oscillatory dynamics); analysis revealed that five parameters were highly influential in these dynamics. Overall, we demonstrate feasibility of performing comprehensive UQ/SA for cardiac cell models and demonstrate how to assess robustness and overcome model failure when performing cardiac UQ analyses. The approach presented here represents an important and significant step toward the development of model-based clinical tools which are demonstrably robust to all underlying uncertainties and therefore more reliable in safety-critical decision-making.

Effect of Heart Structure on Ventricular Fibrillation in the Rabbit: A Simulation Study

Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a lethal condition that affects millions worldwide. The mechanism underlying VF is unstable reentrant electrical waves rotating around lines called filaments. These complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using both experimental and numerical methods. Computer simulations provide unique insights including high resolution dynamics throughout the heart and systematic control of quantities such as fiber orientation and cellular kinetics that are not feasible experimentally. Here we study filament dynamics using two bi-ventricular 3-D high-resolution rabbit heart geometries, one with detailed fine structure and another without fine structure. We studied filament dynamics using anisotropic and isotropic conductivities, and with four cellular action potential models with different recovery kinetics. Spiral wave dynamics observed in isotropic two-dimensional sheets were not predictive of the behavior in the whole heart. In 2-D the four cell models exhibited stable reentry, meandering spiral waves, and spiral-wave breakup. In the whole heart with fine structure, all simulation results exhibited complex dynamics reminiscent of fibrillation observed experimentally. In the whole heart without fine structure, anisotropy acted to destabilize filament dynamics although the number of filaments was reduced compared to the heart with structure. In addition, in isotropic hearts without structure the two cell models that exhibited meandering spiral waves in 2-D, stabilized into figure-of-eight surface patterns. We also studied the sensitivity of filament dynamics to computer system configuration and initial conditions. After large simulation times, different macroscopic results sometimes occurred across different system configurations, likely due to a lack of bitwise reproducibility. The study conclusions were insensitive to initial condition perturbations, however, the exact number of filaments over time and their trends were altered by these changes. In summary, we present the following new results. First, we provide a new cell model that resembles the surface patterns of VF in the rabbit heart both qualitatively and quantitatively. Second, filament dynamics in the whole heart cannot be predicted from spiral wave dynamics in 2-D and we identified anisotropy as one destabilizing factor. Third, the exact dynamics of filaments are sensitive to a variety of factors, so we suggest caution in their interpretation and their quantitative analyses.

Sensitivity of Ablation Targets Prediction to Electrophysiological Parameter Variability in Image-Based Computational Models of Ventricular Tachycardia in Post-infarction Patients

Ventricular tachycardia (VT), which could lead to sudden cardiac death, occurs frequently in patients with myocardial infarction. Computational modeling has emerged as a powerful platform for the non-invasive investigation of lethal heart rhythm disorders in post-infarction patients and for guiding patient VT ablation. However, it remains unclear how VT dynamics and predicted ablation targets are influenced by inter-patient variability in action potential duration (APD) and conduction velocity (CV). The goal of this study was to systematically assess the effect of changes in the electrophysiological parameters on the induced VTs and predicted ablation targets in personalized models of post-infarction hearts. Simulations were conducted in 5 patient-specific left ventricular models reconstructed from late gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging scans. We comprehensively characterized all possible pre-ablation and post-ablation VTs in simulations conducted with either an “average human VT”-based electrophysiological representation (i.e., EP_avg) or with ±10% APD or CV (i.e., EP_var); additional simulations were also executed in some models for an extended range of these parameters. The results showed that: (1) a subset of reentries (76.2–100%, depending on EP parameter set) conducted with ±10% APD/CV was observed in approximately the same locations as reentries observed in EP_avg cases; (2) emergent VTs could be induced sometimes after ablation in EP_avg models, and these emergent VTs often corresponded to the pre-ablation reentries in simulations with EP_var parameter sets. These findings demonstrate that the VT ablation target uncertainty in patient-specific ventricular models with an average representation of VT-remodeled electrophysiology is relatively low and the ablation targets stable, as the localization of the induced VTs was primarily driven by the remodeled structural substrate. Thus, personalized ventricular modeling with an average representation of infarct-remodeled electrophysiology may uncover most targets for VT ablation.

A demonstration of modularity, reuse, reproducibility, portability and scalability for modeling and simulation of cardiac electrophysiology using Kepler Workflows

Multi-scale computational modeling is a major branch of computational biology as evidenced by the US federal interagency Multi-Scale Modeling Consortium and major international projects. It invariably involves specific and detailed sequences of data analysis and simulation, often with multiple tools and datasets, and the community recognizes improved modularity, reuse, reproducibility, portability and scalability as critical unmet needs in this area. Scientific workflows are a well-recognized strategy for addressing these needs in scientific computing. While there are good examples if the use of scientific workflows in bioinformatics, medical informatics, biomedical imaging and data analysis, there are fewer examples in multi-scale computational modeling in general and cardiac electrophysiology in particular. Cardiac electrophysiology simulation is a mature area of multi-scale computational biology that serves as an excellent use case for developing and testing new scientific workflows. In this article, we develop, describe and test a computational workflow that serves as a proof of concept of a platform for the robust integration and implementation of a reusable and reproducible multi-scale cardiac cell and tissue model that is expandable, modular and portable. The workflow described leverages Python and Kepler-Python actor for plotting and pre/post-processing. During all stages of the workflow design, we rely on freely available open-source tools, to make our workflow freely usable by scientists.

We present a computational workflow as a proof of concept for integration and implementation of a reusable and reproducible cardiac multi-scale electrophysiology model that is expandable, modular and portable. This framework enables scientists to create intuitive, user-friendly and flexible end-to-end automated scientific workflows using a graphical user interface. Kepler is an advanced open-source platform that supports multiple models of computation. The underlying workflow engine handles scalability, provenance, reproducibility aspects of the code, performs orchestration of data flow, and automates execution on heterogeneous computing resources. One of the main advantages of workflow utilization is the integration of code written in multiple languages Standardization occurs at the interfaces of the workflow elements and allows for general applications and easy comparison and integration of code from different research groups or even multiple programmers coding in different languages for various purposes from the same group. A workflow driven problem-solving approach enables domain scientists to focus on resolving the core science questions, and delegates the computational and process management burden to the underlying Workflow. The workflow driven approach allows scaling the computational experiment with distributed data-parallel execution on multiple computing platforms, such as, HPC resources, GPU clusters, Cloud etc. The workflow framework tracks software version information along with hardware information to allow users an opportunity to trace any variation in workflow outcome to the system configurations.

Representation of Multiple Cellular Phenotypes Within Tissue-Level Simulations of Cardiac Electrophysiology

Distinct electrophysiological phenotypes are exhibited by biological cells that have differentiated into particular cell types. The usual approach when simulating the cardiac electrophysiology of tissue that includes different cell types is to model the different cell types as occupying spatially distinct yet coupled regions. Instead, we model the electrophysiology of well-mixed cells by using homogenisation to derive an extension to the commonly used monodomain or bidomain equations. These new equations permit spatial variations in the distribution of the different subtypes of cells and will reduce the computational demands of solving the governing equations. We validate the homogenisation computationally, and then use the new model to explain some experimental observations from stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte monolayers.

Generalized polynomial chaos-based uncertainty quantification and propagation in multi-scale modeling of cardiac electrophysiology

Uncertainty and physiological variability are ubiquitous in cardiac electrical signaling. It is important to address the uncertainty and variability in cardiac modeling to provide reliable and realistic predictions of heart function, thus ensuring trustworthy computer-aided medical decision-making and treatment planning. Statistical techniques such as Monte Carlo (MC) simulations have been applied to uncertainty quantification and propagation in cardiac modeling. However, MC simulation-based methods are computationally prohibitive for complex cardiac models with a great number of parameters and governing equations. In this paper, we propose to use the Generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) expansion in combination with Galerkin projection to analytically quantify parametric uncertainty in ion channel models of mouse ventricular cell, and further propagate the uncertainty across different organizational levels of cell and tissue. To identify the most significant parametric uncertainty in cardiac ion channel and cell models, variance decomposition-based sensitivity analysis was first performed. Following this, gPC was integrated with deterministic cardiac models to propagate uncertainty through ion current, ventricular cell, 1D cable, and 2D tissue to account for the stochasticity and cell-to-cell variability. As compared to MC, the gPC in this work shows the superior performance in terms of computational efficiency. In addition, the gPC models can provide a measure of confidence in model predictions, which can improve the reliability of computer simulations of cardiac electrophysiology for clinical applications.

Breathing matters

Breathing is a well-described, vital and surprisingly complex behaviour, with behavioural and physiological outputs that are easy to directly measure. Key neural elements for generating breathing pattern are distinct, compact and form a network amenable to detailed interrogation, promising the imminent discovery of molecular, cellular, synaptic and network mechanisms that give rise to the behaviour. Coupled oscillatory microcircuits make up the rhythmic core of the breathing network. Primary among these is the preBötzinger Complex (preBötC), which is composed of excitatory rhythmogenic interneurons and excitatory and inhibitory pattern-forming interneurons that together produce the essential periodic drive for inspiration. The preBötC coordinates all phases of the breathing cycle, coordinates breathing with orofacial behaviours and strongly influences, and is influenced by, emotion and cognition. Here, we review progress towards cracking the inner workings of this vital core.

Patient-Specific Cardiovascular Computational Modeling: Diversity of Personalization and Challenges

Patient-specific computer models have been developed representing a variety of aspects of the cardiovascular system spanning the disciplines of electrophysiology, electromechanics, solid mechanics, and fluid dynamics. These physiological mechanistic models predict macroscopic phenomena such as electrical impulse propagation and contraction throughout the entire heart as well as flow and pressure dynamics occurring in the ventricular chambers, aorta, and coronary arteries during each heartbeat. Such models have been used to study a variety of clinical scenarios including aortic aneurysms, coronary stenosis, cardiac valvular disease, left ventricular assist devices, cardiac resynchronization therapy, ablation therapy, and risk stratification. After decades of research, these models are beginning to be incorporated into clinical practice directly via marketed devices and indirectly by improving our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of health and disease within a clinical context.

Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data. However, there are numerous challenges to performing validation for highly complex multi-scale physiological models such as CEP models. As a result, credibility of CEP model predictions is usually founded upon a wide range of distinct factors, including various types of validation results, underlying theory, evidence supporting model assumptions, evidence from model calibration, all at a variety of scales from ion channel to cell to organ. Consequently, it is often unclear, or a matter for debate, the extent to which a CEP model can be trusted for a given application. The aim of this article is to clarify potential rationale for the trustworthiness of CEP models by reviewing evidence that has been (or could be) presented to support their credibility. We specifically address the complexity and multi-scale nature of CEP models which makes traditional model evaluation difficult. In addition, we make explicit some of the credibility justification that we believe is implicitly embedded in the CEP modeling literature. Overall, we provide a fresh perspective to CEP model credibility, and build a depiction and categorisation of the wide-ranging body of credibility evidence for CEP models. This paper also represents a step toward the extension of model evaluation methodologies that are currently being developed by the medical device community, to physiological models.

The role of conductivity discontinuities in design of cardiac defibrillation

Fibrillation is an erratic electrical state of the heart, of rapid twitching rather than organized contractions. Ventricular fibrillation is fatal if not treated promptly. The standard treatment, defibrillation, is a strong electrical shock to reinitialize the electrical dynamics and allow a normal heart beat. Both the normal and the fibrillatory electrical dynamics of the heart are organized into moving wave fronts of changing electrical signals, especially in the transmembrane voltage, which is the potential difference between the cardiac cellular interior and the intracellular region of the heart. In a normal heart beat, the wave front motion is from bottom to top and is accompanied by the release of Ca ions to induce contractions and pump the blood. In a fibrillatory state, these wave fronts are organized into rotating scroll waves, with a centerline known as a filament. Treatment requires altering the electrical state of the heart through an externally applied electrical shock, in a manner that precludes the existence of the filaments and scroll waves. Detailed mechanisms for the success of this treatment are partially understood, and involve local shock-induced changes in the transmembrane potential, known as virtual electrode alterations. These transmembrane alterations are located at boundaries of the cardiac tissue, including blood vessels and the heart chamber wall, where discontinuities in electrical conductivity occur. The primary focus of this paper is the defibrillation shock and the subsequent electrical phenomena it induces. Six partially overlapping causal factors for defibrillation success are identified from the literature. We present evidence in favor of five of these and against one of them. A major conclusion is that a dynamically growing wave front starting at the heart surface appears to play a primary role during defibrillation by critically reducing the volume available to sustain the dynamic motion of scroll waves; in contrast, virtual electrodes occurring at the boundaries of small, isolated blood vessels only cause minor effects. As a consequence, we suggest that the size of the heart (specifically, the surface to volume ratio) is an important defibrillation variable.

Improved hybrid/GPU algorithm for solving cardiac electrophysiology problems on Purkinje networks

Cardiac Purkinje fibers provide an important pathway to the coordinated contraction of the heart. We present a numerical algorithm for the solution of electrophysiology problems across the Purkinje network that is efficient enough to be used in in silico studies on realistic Purkinje networks with physiologically detailed models of ion exchange at the cell membrane. The algorithm is on the basis of operator splitting and is provided with 3 different implementations: pure CPU, hybrid CPU/GPU, and pure GPU. Compared to our previous work, we modify the explicit gap junction term at network bifurcations to improve its mathematical consistency. Due to this improved consistency of the model, we are able to perform an empirical convergence study against analytical solutions. The study verified that all 3 implementations produce equivalent convergence rates, and shows that the algorithm produces equivalent result across different hardware platforms. Finally, we compare the efficiency of all 3 implementations on Purkinje networks of increasing spatial resolution using membrane models of increasing complexity. Both hybrid and pure GPU implementations outperform the pure CPU implementation, but their relative performance difference depends on the size of the Purkinje network and the complexity of the membrane model used.

The Cardiac Electrophysiology Web Lab

Computational modeling of cardiac cellular electrophysiology has a long history, and many models are now available for different species, cell types, and experimental preparations. This success brings with it a challenge: how do we assess and compare the underlying hypotheses and emergent behaviors so that we can choose a model as a suitable basis for a new study or to characterize how a particular model behaves in different scenarios? We have created an online resource for the characterization and comparison of electrophysiological cell models in a wide range of experimental scenarios. The details of the mathematical model (quantitative assumptions and hypotheses formulated as ordinary differential equations) are separated from the experimental protocol being simulated. Each model and protocol is then encoded in computer-readable formats. A simulation tool runs virtual experiments on models encoded in CellML, and a website (https://chaste.cs.ox.ac.uk/WebLab) provides a friendly interface, allowing users to store and compare results. The system currently contains a sample of 36 models and 23 protocols, including current-voltage curve generation, action potential properties under steady pacing at different rates, restitution properties, block of particular channels, and hypo-/hyperkalemia. This resource is publicly available, open source, and free, and we invite the community to use it and become involved in future developments. Investigators interested in comparing competing hypotheses using models can make a more informed decision, and those developing new models can upload them for easy evaluation under the existing protocols, and even add their own protocols.

Space-discretization error analysis and stabilization schemes for conduction velocity in cardiac electrophysiology

In cardiac electrophysiology, the propagation of the action potential may be described by a set of reaction-diffusion equations known as the bidomain model. The shape of the solution is determined by a balance of a strong reaction and a relatively weak diffusion, which leads to steep variations in space and time. From a numerical point of view, the sharp spatial gradients may be seen as particularly problematic, because computational grid resolution on the order of 0.1 mm or less is required, yielding considerable computational efforts on human geometries. In this paper, we discuss a number of well-known numerical schemes for the bidomain equation and show how the quality of the solution is affected by the spatial discretization. In particular, we study in detail the effect of discretization on the conduction velocity (CV), which is an important quantity from a physiological point of view. We show that commonly applied finite element techniques tend to overestimate the CV on coarse grids, while it tends to be underestimated by finite difference schemes. Furthermore, the choice of interpolation and discretization scheme for the nonlinear reaction term has a strong impact on the CV. Finally, we exploit the results of the error analysis to propose improved numerical methods, including a stabilized scheme that tends to correct the CV on coarse grids but converges to the correct solution as the grid is refined. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology

KEY POINTS

Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools. We argue that incorporating variability and uncertainty should be a high priority for the future of the Cardiac Physiome. We suggest investigating the adoption of approaches developed in other areas of science and engineering while recognising unique challenges for the Cardiac Physiome; it is likely that novel methods will be necessary that require engagement with the mathematics and statistics community.

ABSTRACT

The Cardiac Physiome effort is one of the most mature and successful applications of mathematical and computational modelling for describing and advancing the understanding of physiology. After five decades of development, physiological cardiac models are poised to realise the promise of translational research via clinical applications such as drug development and patient-specific approaches as well as ablation, cardiac resynchronisation and contractility modulation therapies. For models to be included as a vital component of the decision process in safety-critical applications, rigorous assessment of model credibility will be required. This White Paper describes one aspect of this process by identifying and classifying sources of variability and uncertainty in models as well as their implications for the application and development of cardiac models. We stress the need to understand and quantify the sources of variability and uncertainty in model inputs, and the impact of model structure and complexity and their consequences for predictive model outputs. We propose that the future of the Cardiac Physiome should include a probabilistic approach to quantify the relationship of variability and uncertainty of model inputs and outputs.

Recent developments in using mechanistic cardiac modelling for drug safety evaluation

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Modelling and simulation can streamline decision making in drug safety testing.

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Computational cardiac electrophysiology is a mature technology with a long heritage.

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There are many challenges and opportunities in using in silico techniques in future.

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We discuss how models can be used at different stages of drug discovery.

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CiPA will combine screening platforms, human cell assays and in silico predictions.

On the tenth anniversary of two key International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) guidelines relating to cardiac proarrhythmic safety, an initiative aims to consider the implementation of a new paradigm that combines in vitro and in silico technologies to improve risk assessment. The Comprehensive In Vitro Proarrhythmia Assay (CiPA) initiative (co-sponsored by the Cardiac Safety Research Consortium, Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, Safety Pharmacology Society and FDA) is a bold and welcome step in using computational tools for regulatory decision making. This review compares and contrasts the state-of-the-art tools from empirical to mechanistic models of cardiac electrophysiology, and how they can and should be used in combination with experimental tests for compound decision making.

Verification of cardiac mechanics software: benchmark problems and solutions for testing active and passive material behaviour

Models of cardiac mechanics are increasingly used to investigate cardiac physiology. These models are characterized by a high level of complexity, including the particular anisotropic material properties of biological tissue and the actively contracting material. A large number of independent simulation codes have been developed, but a consistent way of verifying the accuracy and replicability of simulations is lacking. To aid in the verification of current and future cardiac mechanics solvers, this study provides three benchmark problems for cardiac mechanics. These benchmark problems test the ability to accurately simulate pressure-type forces that depend on the deformed objects geometry, anisotropic and spatially varying material properties similar to those seen in the left ventricle and active contractile forces. The benchmark was solved by 11 different groups to generate consensus solutions, with typical differences in higher-resolution solutions at approximately 0.5%, and consistent results between linear, quadratic and cubic finite elements as well as different approaches to simulating incompressible materials. Online tools and solutions are made available to allow these tests to be effectively used in verification of future cardiac mechanics software.

Uncertainty and variability in models of the cardiac action potential: Can we build trustworthy models?

Cardiac electrophysiology models have been developed for over 50 years, and now include detailed descriptions of individual ion currents and sub-cellular calcium handling. It is commonly accepted that there are many uncertainties in these systems, with quantities such as ion channel kinetics or expression levels being difficult to measure or variable between samples. Until recently, the original approach of describing model parameters using single values has been retained, and consequently the majority of mathematical models in use today provide point predictions, with no associated uncertainty.

In recent years, statistical techniques have been developed and applied in many scientific areas to capture uncertainties in the quantities that determine model behaviour, and to provide a distribution of predictions which accounts for this uncertainty. In this paper we discuss this concept, which is termed uncertainty quantification, and consider how it might be applied to cardiac electrophysiology models.

We present two case studies in which probability distributions, instead of individual numbers, are inferred from data to describe quantities such as maximal current densities. Then we show how these probabilistic representations of model parameters enable probabilities to be placed on predicted behaviours. We demonstrate how changes in these probability distributions across data sets offer insight into which currents cause beat-to-beat variability in canine APs. We conclude with a discussion of the challenges that this approach entails, and how it provides opportunities to improve our understanding of electrophysiology.

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Uncertainty and variability in action potential models can be quantified.

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A probabilistic method for inferring maximal current densities is developed and applied.

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We use this to infer the currents responsible for canine beat-to-beat variability.

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Emulation of mathematical models provides rich information at low computational cost.

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The importance of considering uncertainty and variability in future is discussed.

Filament Dynamics during Simulated Ventricular Fibrillation in a High-Resolution Rabbit Heart

The mechanisms underlying ventricular fibrillation (VF) are not well understood. The electrical activity on the heart surface during VF has been recorded extensively in the experimental setting and in some cases clinically; however, corresponding transmural activation patterns are prohibitively difficult to measure. In this paper, we use a high-resolution biventricular heart model to study three-dimensional electrical activity during fibrillation, focusing on the driving sources of VF: “filaments,” the organising centres of unstable reentrant scroll waves. We show, for the first time, specific 3D filament dynamics during simulated VF in a whole heart geometry that includes fine-scale anatomical structures. Our results suggest that transmural activity is much more complex than what would be expected from surface observations alone. We present examples of complex intramural activity, including filament breakup and reattachment, anchoring to the thin right ventricular apex; rapid transitions among various filament shapes; and filament lengths much greater than wall thickness. We also present evidence for anatomy playing a major role in VF development and coronary vessels and trabeculae influencing filament dynamics. Overall, our results indicate that intramural activity during simulated VF is extraordinarily complex and suggest that further investigation of 3D filaments is necessary to fully comprehend recorded surface patterns.

Facing the challenge of mammalian neural microcircuits: taking a few breaths may help

Breathing in mammals is a seemingly straightforward behaviour controlled by the brain. A brainstem nucleus called the preBötzinger Complex sits at the core of the neural circuit generating respiratory rhythm. Despite the discovery of this microcircuit almost 25 years ago, the mechanisms controlling breathing remain elusive. Given the apparent simplicity and well-defined nature of regulatory breathing behaviour, the identification of much of the circuitry, and the ability to study breathing in vitro as well as in vivo, many neuroscientists and physiologists are surprised that respiratory rhythm generation is still not well understood. Our view is that conventional rhythmogenic mechanisms involving pacemakers, inhibition or bursting are problematic and that simplifying assumptions commonly made for many vertebrate neural circuits ignore consequential detail. We propose that novel emergent mechanisms govern the generation of respiratory rhythm. That a mammalian function as basic as rhythm generation arises from complex and dynamic molecular, synaptic and neuronal interactions within a diverse neural microcircuit highlights the challenges in understanding neural control of mammalian behaviours, many (considerably) more elaborate than breathing. We suggest that the neural circuit controlling breathing is inimitably tractable and may inspire general strategies for elucidating other neural microcircuits.

CiPA: Ongoing testing, future qualification procedures, and pending issues

INTRODUCTION

The comprehensive in vitro proarrhythmia assay (CiPA) is a nonclinical, mechanism-based paradigm for assessing drug proarrhythmic liability.

TOPICS COVERED

The first CiPA assay determines effects on cloned human cardiac ion channels. The second investigates whether the latter study-generated metrics engender proarrhythmic markers on a computationally reconstructed human ventricular action potential. The third evaluates conclusions from, and searches possibly missed effects by in silico analysis, in human stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes (hSC-CMs). CiPA ad hoc Expert-Working Groups have proposed patch clamp protocols for seven cardiac ion channels, a modified O'Hara-Rudy model for in silico analysis, detailed procedures for field (MEA) and action potential (VSD) measurements in hSC-CMs, and 29 reference drugs for CiPA assay testing and validation.

DISCUSSION

CiPA adoption as drug development tool for identifying electrophysiological mechanisms conferring proarrhythmic liability to candidate drugs is a complex, multi-functional task requiring significant time, reflection, and efforts to be fully achieved.

A web portal for in-silico action potential predictions

Introduction

Multiple cardiac ion channels are prone to block by pharmaceutical compounds, and this can have large implications for cardiac safety. The effect of a compound on individual ion currents can now be measured in automated patch clamp screening assays. In-silico action potential models are proposed as one way of predicting the integrated compound effects on whole-cell electrophysiology, to provide an improved indication of pro-arrhythmic risk.

Methods

We have developed open source software to run cardiac electrophysiology simulations to predict the overall effect of compounds that block I_Kr, I_CaL, I_Na, I_Ks, I_K1 and I_to to varying degrees, using a choice of mathematical electrophysiology models. To enable safety pharmacology teams to run and evaluate these simulations easily, we have also developed an open source web portal interface to this simulator.

Results

The web portal can be found at https://chaste.cs.ox.ac.uk/ActionPotential. Users can enter details of compound affinities for ion channels in the form of IC₅₀ or pIC₅₀ values, run simulations, store the results for later retrieval, view summary graphs of the results, and export data to a spreadsheet format.

Discussion

This web portal provides a simple interface to reference versions of mathematical models, and well-tested state-of-the-art equation solvers. It provides safety teams easy access to the emerging technology of cardiac electrophysiology simulations for use in the drug-discovery process.

Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology

Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate consequences of variability; and (iv) improve the ability to validate a model. To our knowledge this article is the first to quantify population variability in membrane dynamics in this manner, and the first to perform formal UQ for a component of a cardiac model. The approach is likely to find much wider applicability across systems biology as current application domains reach greater levels of maturity.

Cellular cardiac electrophysiology modeling with Chaste and CellML

Chaste is an open-source C++ library for computational biology that has well-developed cardiac electrophysiology tissue simulation support. In this paper, we introduce the features available for performing cardiac electrophysiology action potential simulations using a wide range of models from the Physiome repository. The mathematics of the models are described in CellML, with units for all quantities. The primary idea is that the model is defined in one place (the CellML file), and all model code is auto-generated at compile or run time; it never has to be manually edited. We use ontological annotation to identify model variables describing certain biological quantities (membrane voltage, capacitance, etc.) to allow us to import any relevant CellML models into the Chaste framework in consistent units and to interact with them via consistent interfaces. This approach provides a great deal of flexibility for analysing different models of the same system. Chaste provides a wide choice of numerical methods for solving the ordinary differential equations that describe the models. Fixed-timestep explicit and implicit solvers are provided, as discussed in previous work. Here we introduce the Rush–Larsen and Generalized Rush–Larsen integration techniques, made available via symbolic manipulation of the model equations, which are automatically rearranged into the forms required by these approaches. We have also integrated the CVODE solvers, a ‘gold standard’ for stiff systems, and we have developed support for symbolic computation of the Jacobian matrix, yielding further increases in the performance and accuracy of CVODE. We discuss some of the technical details of this work and compare the performance of the available numerical methods. Finally, we discuss how this is generalized in our functional curation framework, which uses a domain-specific language for defining complex experiments as a basis for comparison of model behavior.

Simulation Methods and Validation Criteria for Modeling Cardiac Ventricular Electrophysiology

We describe a sequence of methods to produce a partial differential equation model of the electrical activation of the ventricles. In our framework, we incorporate the anatomy and cardiac microstructure obtained from magnetic resonance imaging and diffusion tensor imaging of a New Zealand White rabbit, the Purkinje structure and the Purkinje-muscle junctions, and an electrophysiologically accurate model of the ventricular myocytes and tissue, which includes transmural and apex-to-base gradients of action potential characteristics. We solve the electrophysiology governing equations using the finite element method and compute both a 6-lead precordial electrocardiogram (ECG) and the activation wavefronts over time. We are particularly concerned with the validation of the various methods used in our model and, in this regard, propose a series of validation criteria that we consider essential. These include producing a physiologically accurate ECG, a correct ventricular activation sequence, and the inducibility of ventricular fibrillation. Among other components, we conclude that a Purkinje geometry with a high density of Purkinje muscle junctions covering the right and left ventricular endocardial surfaces as well as transmural and apex-to-base gradients in action potential characteristics are necessary to produce ECGs and time activation plots that agree with physiological observations.

Ensuring reliability of safety-critical clinical applications of computational cardiac models

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have been used for over half a century to investigate physiological mechanisms and generate hypotheses for experimental testing, and are now starting to play a role in clinical applications. There is currently a great deal of interest in using models as diagnostic or therapeutic aids, for example using patient-specific whole-heart simulations to optimize cardiac resynchronization therapy, ablation therapy, and defibrillation. However, if models are to be used in safety-critical clinical decision making, the reliability of their predictions needs to be thoroughly investigated. In engineering and the physical sciences, the field of “verification, validation and uncertainty quantification” (VVUQ) [also known as “verification and validation” (V&V)] has been developed for rigorously evaluating the credibility of computational model predictions. In this article we first discuss why it is vital that cardiac models be developed and evaluated within a VVUQ framework, and then consider cardiac models in the context of each of the stages in VVUQ. We identify some of the major difficulties which may need to be overcome for cardiac models to be used in safely-critical clinical applications.