Historical and projected trends in landscape drivers affecting carbon dynamics in Alaska

Python tools for structural tasks in chemistry

In recent decades, the use of computational approaches and artificial intelligence in the scientific environment has become more widespread. In this regard, the popular and versatile programming language Python has attracted considerable attention from scientists in the field of chemistry. It is used to solve a variety of chemical and structural problems, including calculating descriptors, molecular fingerprints, graph construction, and computing chemical reaction networks. Python offers high-quality visualization tools for analyzing chemical spaces and compound libraries. This review is a list of tools for the above tasks, including scripts, libraries, ready-made programs, and web interfaces. Inevitably this manuscript does not claim to be an all-encompassing handbook including all the existing Python-based structural chemistry codes. The review serves as a starting point for scientists wishing to apply automatization or optimization to routine chemistry problems.

Grazing and topography control nutrient pools in low Arctic soils of Southwest Greenland

Soil nutrient pools in the dry low Arctic are likely to be released under climatic change and this bioavailability has the potential to increase both terrestrial and aquatic productions. As well as the direct effect of warming, external disturbances such as nutrient deposition and grazing can also drive ecosystem change. This study in the low Arctic Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland compared soil nutrient pools in terms of both topographic position on a catena and by soil depth in two small catchments with contrasting muskox abundance. We tested the hypotheses that there were differences between soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) across a soil catena (ridge - slope - valley) and by soil depth (litter - 0-5 cm - 25-30 cm) for the two sites (SS17b, muskox present, versus - SS85, no muskox). Total C and N concentrations of soils were on average lower at SS17b compared to SS85. Moreover, the soil N concentration increased downslope in the catena with higher amounts in the valleys compared to the slopes and ridges. Soil P concentration (0.70 g P kg-1) was similar between catchments; however, litter P content was substantially different. The difference in soil nutrients between the two catchments was most likely due to the presence of muskox at SS17b, and hence grazing associated processes (defecation, altered microbiology and nutrient cycling). This study emphasises the heterogeneity of arctic landscapes and need for ecosystem specific research.

Highlights

Soil nutrient pools in two low-arctic catchments in Greenland were compared.Grazing and dung inputs by muskox affect soil nutrient pools in Greenland.Soil P stores in Kangerlussuaq are similar to intensively managed farmland in Europe.The heterogeneity of arctic landscapes and need for ecosystem-specific research are emphasised.

Escalating carbon emissions from North American boreal forest wildfires and the climate mitigation potential of fire management

Wildfires in boreal forests release large quantities of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, exacerbating climate change. Here, we characterize the magnitude of recent and projected gross and net boreal North American wildfire carbon dioxide emissions, evaluate fire management as an emissions reduction strategy, and quantify the associated costs. Our results show that wildfires in boreal North America could, by mid-century, contribute to a cumulative net source of nearly 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, about 3% of remaining global carbon dioxide emissions associated with keeping temperatures within the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit. With observations from Alaska, we show that current fire management practices limit the burned area. Further, the costs of avoiding carbon dioxide emissions by means of increasing investment in fire management are comparable to or lower than those of other mitigation strategies. Together, our findings highlight the climate risk that boreal wildfires pose and point to fire management as a cost-effective way to limit emissions.

Wildfire Smoke Is Associated With an Increased Risk of Cardiorespiratory Emergency Department Visits in Alaska

Alaskan wildfires have major ecological, social, and economic consequences, but associated health impacts remain unexplored. We estimated cardiorespiratory morbidity associated with wildfire smoke (WFS) fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in three major population centers (Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Matanuska-Susitna Valley) during the 2015-2019 wildfire seasons. To estimate WFS PM2.5, we utilized data from ground-based monitors and satellite-based smoke plume estimates. We implemented time-stratified case-crossover analyses with single and distributed lag models to estimate the effect of WFS PM2.5 on cardiorespiratory emergency department (ED) visits. On the day of exposure to WFS PM2.5, there was an increased odds of asthma-related ED visits among 15-65 year olds (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.08, 1.16), people >65 years (OR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.01, 1.31), among Alaska Native people (OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.09, 1.23), and in Anchorage (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.05, 1.15) and Fairbanks (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.07, 1.17). There was an increased risk of heart failure related ED visits for Alaska Native people (Lag Day 5 OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.02, 1.25). We found evidence that rural populations may delay seeking care. As the frequency and magnitude of Alaskan wildfires continue to increase due to climate change, understanding the health impacts will be imperative. A nuanced understanding of the effects of WFS on specific demographic and geographic groups facilitates data-driven public health interventions and fire management protocols that address these adverse health effects.

Widespread mortality of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) throughout interior Alaskan boreal forests resulting from a novel canker disease

Over the past several decades, growth declines and mortality of trembling aspen throughout western Canada and the United States have been linked to drought, often interacting with outbreaks of insects and fungal pathogens, resulting in a “sudden aspen decline” throughout much of aspen’s range. In 2015, we noticed an aggressive fungal canker causing widespread mortality of aspen throughout interior Alaska and initiated a study to quantify potential drivers for the incidence, virulence, and distribution of the disease. Stand-level infection rates among 88 study sites distributed across 6 Alaska ecoregions ranged from <1 to 69%, with the proportion of trees with canker that were dead averaging 70% across all sites. The disease is most prevalent north of the Alaska Range within the Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion. Modeling canker probability as a function of ecoregion, stand structure, landscape position, and climate revealed that smaller-diameter trees in older stands with greater aspen basal area have the highest canker incidence and mortality, while younger trees in younger stands appear virtually immune to the disease. Sites with higher summer vapor pressure deficits had significantly higher levels of canker infection and mortality. We believe the combined effects of this novel fungal canker pathogen, drought, and the persistent aspen leaf miner outbreak are triggering feedbacks between carbon starvation and hydraulic failure that are ultimately driving widespread mortality. Warmer early-season temperatures and prolonged late summer drought are leading to larger and more severe wildfires throughout interior Alaska that are favoring a shift from black spruce to forests dominated by Alaska paper birch and aspen. Widespread aspen mortality fostered by this rapidly spreading pathogen has significant implications for successional dynamics, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to disturbance regimes, particularly on sites too dry for Alaska paper birch.

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio-environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high-latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time-series analysis of moderate-and high-resolution imagery was used to characterize land- and water-surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land-surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak-growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km² ) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface-water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high-latitude regions.

Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications

We summarize the results of a recent interagency assessment of land carbon dynamics in Alaska, in which carbon dynamics were estimated for all major terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems for the historical period (1950-2009) and a projection period (2010-2099). Between 1950 and 2009, upland and wetland (i.e., terrestrial) ecosystems of the state gained 0.4 Tg C/yr (0.1% of net primary production, NPP), resulting in a cumulative greenhouse gas radiative forcing of 1.68 × 10^-3  W/m² . The change in carbon storage is spatially variable with the region of the Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) losing carbon because of fire disturbance. The combined carbon transport via various pathways through inland aquatic ecosystems of Alaska was estimated to be 41.3 Tg C/yr (17% of terrestrial NPP). During the projection period (2010-2099), carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska was projected to increase (22.5-70.0 Tg C/yr), primarily because of NPP increases of 10-30% associated with responses to rising atmospheric CO₂ , increased nitrogen cycling, and longer growing seasons. Although carbon emissions to the atmosphere from wildfire and wetland CH₄ were projected to increase for all of the climate projections, the increases in NPP more than compensated for those losses at the statewide level. Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems continue to warm the climate for four of the six future projections and cool the climate for only one of the projections. The attribution analyses we conducted indicated that the response of NPP in terrestrial ecosystems to rising atmospheric CO₂ (~5% per 100 ppmv CO₂ ) saturates as CO₂ increases (between approximately +150 and +450 ppmv among projections). This response, along with the expectation that permafrost thaw would be much greater and release large quantities of permafrost carbon after 2100, suggests that projected carbon gains in terrestrial ecosystems of Alaska may not be sustained. From a national perspective, inclusion of all of Alaska in greenhouse gas inventory reports would ensure better accounting of the overall greenhouse gas balance of the nation and provide a foundation for considering mitigation activities in areas that are accessible enough to support substantive deployment.

The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska

Wetlands are critical terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska, covering ~177,000 km² , an area greater than all the wetlands in the remainder of the United States. To assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) concentration, and fire regime on carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of Alaska, a modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used. Spatially explicit simulations were conducted at 1-km resolution for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). Simulations estimated that wetland ecosystems of Alaska lost 175 Tg carbon (C) in the historical period. Ecosystem C storage in 2009 was 5,556 Tg, with 89% of the C stored in soils. The estimated loss of C as CO₂ and biogenic methane (CH₄ ) emissions resulted in wetlands of Alaska increasing the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. Simulations for the projection period were conducted for six climate change scenarios constructed from two climate models forced under three CO₂ emission scenarios. Ecosystem C storage averaged among climate scenarios increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 to 4.42 Tg C/yr. These increases were driven primarily by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than losses from increased decomposition and fire. The NPP increase was driven by CO₂ fertilization (~5% per 100 parts per million by volume increase) and by increases in air temperature (~1% per °C increase). Increases in air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in biogenic CH₄ emissions among the simulations (~15% per °C increase). Ecosystem CO₂ sequestration offset the increase in CH₄ emissions during the 21st century to decrease the greenhouse gas forcing of climate warming. However, beyond 2100, we expect that this forcing will ultimately increase as wetland ecosystems transition from being a sink to a source of atmospheric CO₂ because of (1) decreasing sensitivity of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO₂ , (2) increasing availability of soil C for decomposition as permafrost thaws, and (3) continued positive sensitivity of biogenic CH₄ emissions to increases in soil temperature.

The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska

It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km² ), are influencing and will influence state-wide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period (1950-2009) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store ~50 Pg C (with ~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (-6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO₂ fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO₂ , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO₂ increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO₂ sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.