Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure

Decline of a distinct coral reef holobiont community under ocean acidification

BACKGROUND

Microbes play vital roles across coral reefs both in the environment and inside and upon macrobes (holobionts), where they support critical functions such as nutrition and immune system modulation. These roles highlight the potential ecosystem-level importance of microbes, yet most knowledge of microbial functions on reefs is derived from a small set of holobionts such as corals and sponges. Declining seawater pH - an important global coral reef stressor - can cause ecosystem-level change on coral reefs, providing an opportunity to study the role of microbes at this scale. We use an in situ experimental approach to test the hypothesis that under such ocean acidification (OA), known shifts among macrobe trophic and functional groups may drive a general ecosystem-level response extending across macrobes and microbes, leading to reduced distinctness between the benthic holobiont community microbiome and the environmental microbiome.

RESULTS

We test this hypothesis using genetic and chemical data from benthic coral reef community holobionts sampled across a pH gradient from CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea. We find support for our hypothesis; under OA, the microbiome and metabolome of the benthic holobiont community become less compositionally distinct from the sediment microbiome and metabolome, suggesting that benthic macrobe communities are colonised by environmental microbes to a higher degree under OA conditions. We also find a simplification and homogenisation of the benthic photosynthetic community, and an increased abundance of fleshy macroalgae, consistent with previously observed reef microbialisation.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a novel structural shift in coral reefs involving macrobes and microbes: that the microbiome of the benthic holobiont community becomes less distinct from the sediment microbiome under OA. Our findings suggest that microbialisation and the disruption of macrobe trophic networks are interwoven general responses to environmental stress, pointing towards a universal, undesirable, and measurable form of ecosystem changed. Video Abstract.

Balancing multiple management objectives as climate change transforms ecosystems

As climate change facilitates significant and persistent ecological transformations, managing ecosystems according to historical baseline conditions may no longer be feasible. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework can guide climate-informed management interventions, but in its current implementations RAD has not yet fully accounted for potential tradeoffs between multiple - sometimes incompatible - ecological and societal goals. Key scientific challenges for informing climate-adapted ecosystem management include (i) advancing our predictive understanding of transformations and their socioecological impacts under novel climate conditions, and (ii) incorporating uncertainty around trajectories of ecological change and the potential success of RAD interventions into management decisions. To promote the implementation of RAD, practitioners can account for diverse objectives within just and equitable participatory decision-making processes.

Detecting shifts in nonlinear dynamics using Empirical Dynamic Modeling with Nested-Library Analysis

Abrupt changes in system states and dynamical behaviors are often observed in natural systems; such phenomena, named regime shifts, are explained as transitions between alternative steady states (more generally, attractors). Various methods have been proposed to detect regime shifts from time series data, but a generic detection method with theoretical linkage to underlying dynamics is lacking. Here, we provide a novel method named Nested-Library Analysis (NLA) to retrospectively detect regime shifts using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) rooted in theory of attractor reconstruction. Specifically, NLA determines the time of regime shift as the cutting point at which sequential reduction of the library set (i.e., the time series data used to reconstruct the attractor for forecasting) optimizes the forecast skill of EDM. We illustrate this method on a chaotic model of which changing parameters present a critical transition. Our analysis shows that NLA detects the change point in the model system and outperforms existing approaches based on statistical characteristics. In addition, NLA empirically detected a real-world regime shift event revealing an abrupt change of Pacific Decadal Oscillation index around the mid-1970s. Importantly, our method can be easily generalized to various systems because NLA is equation-free and requires only a single time series.

Mixed-species groups of herbivorous reef fishes show variable responses to ecosystem perturbations in the Lakshadweep Islands, India

Herbivorous reef fishes provide a vital function in reef ecosystems by removing algae and making space available to coral recruits. The high abundance of herbivores in the reefs of the Lakshadweep islands has potentially aided in reef recovery and helped avoid a phase shift to an algal-dominated system, despite most areas having suffered massive coral losses. Mixed-species grouping in herbivores could potentially benefit both the participant species and the reef ecosystem by improving foraging efficiency. We examined the grouping propensity and species richness for three types of herbivore groups after a mass-bleaching event in 2010 and a mass recruitment event in 2015. The species richness and number of parrotfish groups, as well as the grouping propensity of common species, declined starkly across years, indicating that these groups may have formed in response to the mass-bleaching event, slowly diminishing as the reefs recovered. Conversely, large surgeonfish, which varied in richness and propensity across islands and aspect, are probably influenced by local processes. Small surgeonfish only increased in species richness and number in 2015, which may have been in response to the recruitment event. Thus, herbivorous fishes may respond differently to local ecosystem perturbations and play different roles in reef recovery. This article is part of the theme issue 'Mixed-species groups and aggregations: shaping ecological and behavioural patterns and processes'.

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.

Fish community structure and dynamics are insufficient to mediate coral resilience

Coral reefs are being impacted by myriad stressors leading to drastic changes to their structure and function. Fishes play essential roles in driving ecosystem processes on coral reefs but the extent to which these processes are emergent at temporal or ecosystem scales or otherwise masked by other drivers (for example, climatic events and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) is poorly understood. Using time series data on fish community composition and coral and macroalgae percentage cover between 2006 and 2017 from 57 sites around Mo'orea, Polynesia, we found that fish community diversity predicts temporal stability in fish biomass but did not translate to temporal stability of coral cover. Furthermore, we found limited evidence of directional influence of fish on coral dynamics at temporal and ecosystem scales and no evidence that fish mediate coral recovery rate from disturbance. Our findings suggest that coral reef fisheries management will benefit from maintaining fish diversity but that this level of management is unlikely to strongly mediate coral loss or recovery over time.

Changes in invertebrate food web structure between high- and low-productivity environments are driven by intermediate but not top-predator diet shifts

Predator-prey interactions shape ecosystem stability and are influenced by changes in ecosystem productivity. However, because multiple biotic and abiotic drivers shape the trophic responses of predators to productivity, we often observe patterns, but not mechanisms, by which productivity drives food web structure. One way to capture mechanisms shaping trophic responses is to quantify trophic interactions among multiple trophic groups and by using complementary metrics of trophic ecology. In this study, we combine two diet-tracing methods: diet DNA and stable isotopes, for two trophic groups (top predators and intermediate predators) in both low- and high-productivity habitats to elucidate where in the food chain trophic structure shifts in response to changes in underlying ecosystem productivity. We demonstrate that while top predators show increases in isotopic trophic position (δ15N) with productivity, neither their isotopic niche size nor their DNA diet composition changes. Conversely, intermediate predators show clear turnover in DNA diet composition towards a more predatory prey base in high-productivity habitats. Taking this multi-trophic approach highlights how predator identity shapes responses in predator-prey interactions across environments with different underlying productivity, building predictive power for understanding the outcomes of ongoing anthropogenic change.

A critical evaluation of benthic phase shift studies on coral reefs

Coral reef decline has accelerated in the last two decades resulting in substantial research into the phenomenon of 'phase shifts' or 'regime shifts'. However, the conclusions drawn from this research have been varied. Some of this variability may stem from methodological approaches, although the extent to which these factors have shaped our understanding remain largely unexplored. To examine this, we conducted a systematic review of the literature. In doing so, we revealed marked variability in the approaches used for studying phase shifts. Notably, very few studies clearly defined what they meant by phase shifts. Therefore, we developed a clarified definition of phase shifts, which specifically defined persistence and dominance. The applicability of this definition was tested on multi-decadal benthic composition data on the Great Barrier Reef. The number of shifts depended critically on the definition selected, suggesting that this may be a primary reason underpinning the variability in past results.

Dynamics of large benthic foraminiferal assemblages: A tool to foreshadow reef degradation?

Ecological regime shifts in the marine realm have been recorded from a variety of systems and locations around the world. Coral reefs have been especially affected, with their benthic habitat changing from a dominance of stony corals to a dominance of other organisms such as fleshy algae. To detect changes in the benthic habitat of coral reefs, simple tools applicable on a global scale are necessary for future monitoring programs. Hence, the aim of this research is to explore the hypothesis that shifts in assemblages of large benthic foraminifera (LBF) can detect early signs of degradation in the reef benthic habitat. To do so, data on living assemblages of LBF collected between 1997 and 2018 at 12 islands in the Spermonde Archipelago (South Sulawesi, Indonesia) were analyzed. Foraminiferal specimens were morphologically identified to the species level and statistical analyses performed to assess changes in their assemblage composition. A clear temporal shift was observed. Typical foraminiferal assemblages in a coral-dominated (e.g., Amphistegina lobifera, Calcarina spengleri, Heterostegina depressa) and fleshy algae-dominated (e.g., Neorotalia gaimardi, C. mayori) reef habitats were identified and significantly linked to the substrate type. Other species (e.g., Elphidium spp., Peneroplis planatus and Sphaerogypsina globulus) seem to reflect a spatial and temporal gradient of anthropogenic pollution from local inhabited islands and ongoing urban development on the mainland. Hence communities of LBF consistently follow gradual shifts in environmental conditions. Additionally to foraminiferal assemblages being an indicator for actual reef condition, closely monitoring LBF may provide early information on reef degradation, in time to take action against identified stressors (e.g., eutrophication or intensive fishing) at local and regional scales. The circumtropical distribution of LBF is such that they can be included worldwide in reef monitoring programs, conditional to calibration to the regional species pool.

Emerging insights on effects of sharks and other top predators on coral reefs

Predation is ubiquitous on coral reefs. Among the most charismatic group of reef predators are the top predatory fishes, including sharks and large-bodied bony fishes. Despite the threat presented by top predators, data describing their realized effects on reef community structure and functioning are challenging to produce. Many innovative studies have capitalized on natural experimental conditions to explore predator effects on reefs. Gradients in predator density have been created by spatial patterning of fisheries management. Evidence of prey release has been observed across some reefs, namely that potential prey increase in density when predator density is reduced. While such studies search for evidence of prey release among broad groups or guilds of potential prey, a subset of studies have sought evidence of release at finer population levels. We find that some groups of fishes are particularly vulnerable to the effects of predators and more able to capitalize demographically when predator density is reduced. For example, territorial damselfish appear to realize reliable population expansion with the reduction in predator density, likely because their aggressive, defensive behavior makes them distinctly vulnerable to predation. Relatedly, individual fishes that suffer from debilitating conditions, such as heavy parasite loads, appear to realize relatively stronger levels of prey release with reduced predator density. Studying the effects of predators on coral reefs remains a timely pursuit, and we argue that efforts to focus on the specifics of vulnerability to predation among potential prey and other context-specific dimensions of mortality hold promise to expand our knowledge.

Climate-induced increases in micronutrient availability for coral reef fisheries

Climate change is transforming coral reefs, threatening supply of essential dietary micronutrients from small-scale fisheries to tropical coastal communities. Yet the nutritional value of reef fisheries and climate impacts on micronutrient availability remain unclear, hindering efforts to sustain food and nutrition security. Here, we measure nutrient content in coral reef fishes in Seychelles and show that reef fish are important sources of selenium and zinc and contain levels of calcium, iron, and omega-3 fatty acids comparable with other animal-source foods. Using experimental fishing, we demonstrate that iron and zinc are enriched in fishes caught on regime-shifted macroalgal habitats, whereas selenium and omega-3 varied among species. We find substantial increases in nutrients available to fisheries over two decades following coral bleaching, particularly for iron and zinc after macroalgal regime shifts. Our findings indicate that, if managed sustainably, coral reef fisheries could remain important micronutrient sources along tropical coastlines despite escalating climate impacts.

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Coral reef fishes are important sources of essential dietary nutrients

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Nutrients available to fisheries increased after mass coral bleaching

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Iron and zinc were higher in reef fishes caught on macroalgal habitats

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Coral reefs can remain key sources of nutritious food despite climate impacts

Tropical small-scale fisheries supply nutritious and affordable seafood to hundreds of millions of people, including catches from coral reefs that are vulnerable to marine heatwaves. Climate changes therefore threaten seafood supply in places where food insecurity is most prevalent, but what is the nutrient value of climate-impacted coral reefs? We analyzed nutrient content of 43 tropical reef fish species in Seychelles and found that coral reef fish contain similar levels of iron, selenium, and zinc as chicken, pork, and beef and higher levels of calcium and omega-3 fatty acids. By integrating nutrient data with fish surveys collected before and after mass coral bleaching, we show that high post-bleaching fish biomass led to greater nutrient supply for fisheries, particularly for iron and zinc. Sustainable management of reef fisheries can therefore continue to support tropical food and nutrition security, despite climate impacts to reef ecosystems.

Marine and freshwater regime changes impact a community of migratory Pacific salmonids in decline

Marine and freshwater ecosystems are increasingly at risk of large and cascading changes from multiple human activities (termed "regime shifts"), which can impact population productivity, resilience, and ecosystem structure. Pacific salmon exhibit persistent and large fluctuations in their population dynamics driven by combinations of intrinsic (e.g., density dependence) and extrinsic factors (e.g., ecosystem changes, species interactions). In recent years, many Pacific salmon have declined due to regime shifts but clear understanding of the processes driving these changes remains elusive. Here, we unpacked the role of density dependence, ecosystem trends, and stochasticity on productivity regimes for a community of five anadromous Pacific salmonids (Steelhead, Coho Salmon, Pink Salmon, Dolly Varden, and Coastal Cutthroat Trout) across a rich 40-year time-series. We used a Bayesian multivariate state-space model to examine whether productivity shifts had similarly occurred across the community and explored marine or freshwater changes associated with those shifts. Overall, we identified three productivity regimes: an early regime (1976-1990), a compensatory regime (1991-2009), and a declining regime (since 2010) where large declines were observed for Steelhead, Dolly Varden, and Cutthroat Trout, intermediate declines in Coho and no change in Pink Salmon. These regime changes were associated with multiple cumulative effects across the salmon life cycle. For example, increased seal densities and ocean competition were associated with lower adult marine survival in Steelhead. Watershed logging also intensified over the past 40 years and was associated with (all else equal) ≥97% declines in freshwater productivity for Steelhead, Cutthroat, and Coho. For Steelhead, marine and freshwater dynamics played approximately equal roles in explaining trends in total productivity. Collectively, these changing environments limited juvenile production and lowered future adult returns. These results reveal how changes in freshwater and marine environments can jointly shape population dynamics among ecological communities, like Pacific salmon, with cascading consequences to their resilience.

Regime shifts on tropical coral reef ecosystems: future trajectories to animal-dominated states in response to anthropogenic stressors

Despite the global focus on the occurrence of regime shifts on shallow-water tropical coral reefs over the last two decades, most of this research continues to focus on changes to algal-dominated states. Here, we review recent reports (in approximately the last decade) of regime shifts to states dominated by animal groups other than zooxanthellate Scleractinian corals. We found that while there have been new reports of regime shifts to reefs dominated by Ascidacea, Porifera, Octocorallia, Zoantharia, Actiniaria and azooxanthellate Scleractinian corals, some of these changes occurred many decades ago, but have only just been reported in the literature. In most cases, these reports are over small to medium spatial scales (<4 × 104 m2 and 4 × 104 to 2 × 106 m2, respectively). Importantly, from the few studies where we were able to collect information on the persistence of the regime shifts, we determined that these non-scleractinian states are generally unstable, with further changes since the original regime shift. However, these changes were not generally back to coral dominance. While there has been some research to understand how sponge- and octocoral-dominated systems may function, there is still limited information on what ecosystem services have been disrupted or lost as a result of these shifts. Given that many coral reefs across the world are on the edge of tipping points due to increasing anthropogenic stress, we urgently need to understand the consequences of non-algal coral reef regime shifts.

Hurricane impacts on a coral reef soundscape

Soundscape ecology is an emerging field in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and provides a powerful approach for assessing habitat quality and the ecological response of sound-producing species to natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Little is known of how underwater soundscapes respond during and after severe episodic disturbances, such as hurricanes. This study addresses the impacts of Hurricane Irma on the coral reef soundscape at two spur-and-groove fore-reef sites within the Florida Keys USA, using passive acoustic data collected before and during the storm at Western Dry Rocks (WDR) and before, during and after the storm at Eastern Sambo (ESB). As the storm passed, the cumulative acoustic exposure near the seabed at these sites was comparable to a small vessel operating continuously overhead for 1–2 weeks. Before the storm, sound pressure levels (SPLs) showed a distinct pattern of low frequency diel variation and increased high frequency sound during crepuscular periods. The low frequency band was partitioned in two groups representative of soniferous reef fish, whereas the high frequency band represented snapping shrimp sound production. Daily daytime patterns in low-frequency sound production largely persisted in the weeks following the hurricane. Crepuscular sound production by snapping shrimp was maintained post-hurricane with only a small shift (~1.5dB) in the level of daytime vs nighttime sound production for this high frequency band. This study suggests that on short time scales, temporal patterns in the coral reef soundscape were relatively resilient to acoustic energy exposure during the storm, as well as changes in the benthic habitat and environmental conditions resulting from hurricane damage.

High summer temperatures amplify functional differences between coral- and algae-dominated reef communities

Shifts from coral to algal dominance are expected to increase in tropical coral reefs as a result of anthropogenic disturbances. The consequences for key ecosystem functions such as primary productivity, calcification, and nutrient recycling are poorly understood, particularly under changing environmental conditions. We used a novel in situ incubation approach to compare functions of coral‐ and algae‐dominated communities in the central Red Sea bimonthly over an entire year. In situ gross and net community primary productivity, calcification, dissolved organic carbon fluxes, dissolved inorganic nitrogen fluxes, and their respective activation energies were quantified to describe the effects of seasonal changes. Overall, coral‐dominated communities exhibited 30% lower net productivity and 10 times higher calcification than algae‐dominated communities. Estimated activation energies indicated a higher thermal sensitivity of coral‐dominated communities. In these communities, net productivity and calcification were negatively correlated with temperature (>40% and >65% reduction, respectively, with +5°C increase from winter to summer), whereas carbon losses via respiration and dissolved organic carbon release more than doubled at higher temperatures. In contrast, algae‐dominated communities doubled net productivity in summer, while calcification and dissolved organic carbon fluxes were unaffected. These results suggest pronounced changes in community functioning associated with coral‐algal phase shifts. Algae‐dominated communities may outcompete coral‐dominated communities because of their higher productivity and carbon retention to support fast biomass accumulation while compromising the formation of important reef framework structures. Higher temperatures likely amplify these functional differences, indicating a high vulnerability of ecosystem functions of coral‐dominated communities to temperatures even below coral bleaching thresholds. Our results suggest that ocean warming may not only cause but also amplify coral–algal phase shifts in coral reefs.

Coral reefs as a source of climate-active aerosols

We review the evidence for bio-regulation by coral reefs of local climate through stress-induced emissions of aerosol precursors, such as dimethylsulfide. This is an issue that goes to the core of the coral ecosystem’s ability to maintain homeostasis in the face of increasing climate change impacts and other anthropogenic pressures. We examine this through an analysis of data on aerosol emissions by corals of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We focus on the relationship with local stressors, such as surface irradiance levels and sea surface temperature, both before and after notable coral bleaching events. We conclude that coral reefs may be able to regulate their exposure to environmental stressors through modification of the optical properties of the atmosphere, however this ability may be impaired as climate change intensifies.

Coral species composition drives key ecosystem function on coral reefs

Rapid and unprecedented ecological change threatens the functioning and stability of ecosystems. On coral reefs, global climate change and local stressors are reducing and reorganizing habitat-forming corals and associated species, with largely unknown implications for critical ecosystem functions such as herbivory. Herbivory mediates coral-algal competition, thereby facilitating ecosystem recovery following disturbance such as coral bleaching events or large storms. However, relationships between coral species composition, the distribution of herbivorous fishes and the delivery of their functional impact are not well understood. Here, we investigate how herbivorous fish assemblages and delivery of two distinct herbivory processes, grazing and browsing, differ among three taxonomically distinct, replicated coral habitats. While grazing on algal turf assemblages was insensitive to different coral configurations, browsing on the macroalga Laurencia cf. obtusa varied considerably among habitats, suggesting that different mechanisms may shape these processes. Variation in browsing among habitats was best predicted by the composition and structural complexity of benthic assemblages (in particular the cover and composition of corals, but not macroalgal cover), and was poorly reflected by visual estimates of browser biomass. Surprisingly, the lowest browsing rates were recorded in the most structurally complex habitat, with the greatest cover of coral (branching Porites habitat). While the mechanism for the variation in browsing is not clear, it may be related to scale-dependent effects of habitat structure on visual occlusion inhibiting foraging activity by browsing fishes, or the relative availability of alternate dietary resources. Our results suggest that maintained functionality may vary among distinct and emerging coral reef configurations due to ecological interactions between reef fishes and their environment determining habitat selection.

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages

Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large-scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long-term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23-year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for >15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re-establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Experimental support for alternative attractors on coral reefs

Ecological theory predicts that under the same environmental conditions, an ecosystem could have more than one community state that is maintained by reinforcing feedbacks. If so, a sufficiently large disturbance can flip the system to a less desired community that is difficult to reverse. Here, we demonstrate that a coral reef can become trapped in a seaweed-dominated state in the same conditions under which corals thrive. The implications are profound, particularly in light of the increasing occurrence of shifts to seaweed on coral reefs worldwide. Our results indicate that anticipatory management strategies that lessen the chance of a switch to seaweeds will be more effective than those aimed at restoring the coral community after a shift.

Ecological theory predicts that ecosystems with multiple basins of attraction can get locked in an undesired state, which has profound ecological and management implications. Despite their significance, alternative attractors have proven to be challenging to detect and characterize in natural communities. On coral reefs, it has been hypothesized that persistent coral-to-macroalgae “phase shifts” that can result from overfishing of herbivores and/or nutrient enrichment may reflect a regime shift to an alternate attractor, but, to date, the evidence has been equivocal. Our field experiments in Moorea, French Polynesia, revealed the following: (i) hysteresis existed in the herbivory–macroalgae relationship, creating the potential for coral–macroalgae bistability at some levels of herbivory, and (ii) macroalgae were an alternative attractor under prevailing conditions in the lagoon but not on the fore reef, where ambient herbivory fell outside the experimentally delineated region of hysteresis. These findings help explain the different community responses to disturbances between lagoon and fore reef habitats of Moorea over the past several decades and reinforce the idea that reversing an undesired shift on coral reefs can be difficult. Our experimental framework represents a powerful diagnostic tool to probe for multiple attractors in ecological systems and, as such, can inform management strategies needed to maintain critical ecosystem functions in the face of escalating stresses.

Functional changes in reef systems in warmer seas: Asymmetrical effects of altered grazing by a widespread crustacean mesograzer

Grazing is a pivotal function in many marine systems, conferring resilience to coral reefs by limiting algal overgrowth, but triggering phase shifts on temperate reefs. Thus, changes to consumption rates of grazing species in response to higher future temperatures may have broad ecological consequences. We measured how the consumption rates of a widespread mesograzer (the hermit crab Clibanarius virescens) responded to changing temperatures in the laboratory and applied these findings to model the spatial footprint on grazing animals throughout the Indo-Pacific region under climate change scenarios. We show that mean grazing capacity may increase in shallow coastal areas in the second half of the century. The effects are, however, asymmetrical, with tropical reefs predicted to experience slightly diminished grazing whilst reefs at higher latitudes will be grazed substantially more. Our findings suggest that assessments of the effects of climate change on reef ecosystems should consider how warming affects grazing performance when predicting wider ecological impacts.

Marginal coral reefs show high susceptibility to phase shift

Phase shift, resulting from coral reef degradation, has been frequently recorded on reefs in optimal conditions, while marginal reefs were considered more resistant due to few records. Noting the lack of marginal reef phase shift studies, we quantitatively assessed their geographic extent in the Southwest Atlantic. Using metadata and a calculated phase shift index, we identified phase shifts from corals to both zoanthid and macroalgal dominance. Positive correlations existed between phase shift and local human impacts for zoanthids: proximity to human populations >100,000 inhabitants, urbanized surfaces and dredged ports and a negative relationship to the endurance of SST >1 °C above normal. Macroalgal shifts positively correlated to ports and urbanized surfaces, higher latitudes and shore proximity, indicating a possible link to nutrient runoff. The high frequency of these phase shifts suggests greater degradation than reported for Caribbean reefs, suggesting that marginal reefs do not have higher natural resistance to human impacts.