Evolutionary tracking is determined by differential selection on demographic rates and density dependence

Demographic feedbacks during evolutionary rescue can slow or speed adaptive evolution

Populations declining toward extinction can persist via genetic adaptation in a process called evolutionary rescue. Predicting evolutionary rescue has applications ranging from conservation biology to medicine, but requires understanding and integrating the multiple effects of a stressful environmental change on population processes. Here we derive a simple expression for how generation time, a key determinant of the rate of evolution, varies with population size during evolutionary rescue. Change in generation time is quantitatively predicted by comparing how intraspecific competition and the source of maladaptation each affect the rates of births and deaths in the population. Depending on the difference between two parameters quantifying these effects, the model predicts that populations may experience substantial changes in their rate of adaptation in both positive and negative directions, or adapt consistently despite severe stress. These predictions were then tested by comparison to the results of individual-based simulations of evolutionary rescue, which validated that the tolerable rate of environmental change varied considerably as described by analytical results. We discuss how these results inform efforts to understand wildlife disease and adaptation to climate change, evolution in managed populations and treatment resistance in pathogens.

How density dependence, genetic erosion and the extinction vortex impact evolutionary rescue

Following severe environmental change that reduces mean population fitness below replacement, populations must adapt to avoid eventual extinction, a process called evolutionary rescue. Models of evolutionary rescue demonstrate that initial size, genetic variation and degree of maladaptation influence population fates. However, many models feature populations that grow without negative density dependence or with constant genetic diversity despite precipitous population decline, assumptions likely to be violated in conservation settings. We examined the simultaneous influences of density-dependent growth and erosion of genetic diversity on populations adapting to novel environmental change using stochastic, individual-based simulations. Density dependence decreased the probability of rescue and increased the probability of extinction, especially in large and initially well-adapted populations that previously have been predicted to be at low risk. Increased extinction occurred shortly following environmental change, as populations under density dependence experienced more rapid decline and reached smaller sizes. Populations that experienced evolutionary rescue lost genetic diversity through drift and adaptation, particularly under density dependence. Populations that declined to extinction entered an extinction vortex, where small size increased drift, loss of genetic diversity and the fixation of maladaptive alleles, hindered adaptation and kept populations at small densities where they were vulnerable to extinction via demographic stochasticity.

The contribution of evolvability to the eco-evolutionary dynamics of competing species

Evolvability is the capacity of a population to generate heritable variation that can be acted upon by natural selection. This ability influences the adaptations and fitness of individual organisms. By viewing this capacity as a trait, evolvability is subject to natural selection and thus plays a critical role in eco-evolutionary dynamics. Understanding this role provides insight into how species respond to changes in their environment and how species coexistence can arise and be maintained. Here, we create a G-function model of competing species, each with a different evolvability. We analyze population and strategy (= heritable phenotype) dynamics of the two populations under clade initiation (when species are introduced into a population), evolutionary tracking (constant, small changes in the environment), adaptive radiation (availability of multiple ecological niches), and evolutionary rescue (extreme environmental disturbances). We find that when species are far from an eco-evolutionary equilibrium, faster-evolving species reach higher population sizes, and when species are close to an equilibrium, slower-evolving species are more successful. Frequent, minor environmental changes promote the extinction of species with small population sizes, regardless of their evolvability. When several niches are available for a species to occupy, coexistence is possible, though slower-evolving species perform slightly better than faster-evolving ones due to the well-recognized inherent cost of evolvability. Finally, disrupting the environment at intermediate frequencies can result in coexistence with cyclical population dynamics of species with different rates of evolution.

Evolutionary rescue in a fluctuating environment: periodic versus quasi-periodic environmental changes

No environment is constant over time, and environmental fluctuations impact the outcome of evolutionary dynamics. Survival of a population not adapted to some environmental conditions is threatened unless, for example, a mutation rescues it, an eco-evolutionary process termed evolutionary rescue. We here investigate evolutionary rescue in an environment that fluctuates between a favourable state, in which the population grows, and a harsh state, in which the population declines. We develop a stochastic model that includes both population dynamics and genetics. We derive analytical predictions for the mean extinction time of a non-adapted population given that it is not rescued, the probability of rescue by a mutation, and the mean appearance time of a rescue mutant, which we validate using numerical simulations. We find that stochastic environmental fluctuations, resulting in quasi-periodic environmental changes, accelerate extinction and hinder evolutionary rescue compared with deterministic environmental fluctuations, resulting in periodic environmental changes. We demonstrate that high equilibrium population sizes and per capita growth rates maximize the chances of evolutionary rescue. We show that an imperfectly harsh environment, which does not fully prevent births but makes the death rate to birth rate ratio much greater than unity, has almost the same rescue probability as a perfectly harsh environment, which fully prevents births. Finally, we put our results in the context of antimicrobial resistance and conservation biology.

Plasticity's role in adaptive evolution depends on environmental change components

To forecast extinction risks of natural populations under climate change and direct human impacts, an integrative understanding of both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution is essential. To date, the evidence for whether, when, and how much plasticity facilitates adaptive responses in changing environments is contradictory. We argue that explicitly considering three key environmental change components - rate of change, variance, and temporal autocorrelation - affords a unifying framework of the impact of plasticity on adaptive evolution. These environmental components each distinctively effect evolutionary and ecological processes underpinning population viability. Using this framework, we develop expectations regarding the interplay between plasticity and adaptive evolution in natural populations. This framework has the potential to improve predictions of population viability in a changing world.