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Hecht H, Krofcheck DJ, Carril D, Hurteau MD. Estimating the influence of field inventory sampling intensity on forest landscape model performance for determining high-severity wildfire risk. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3073. [PMID: 38321185 PMCID: PMC10847129 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53359-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2024] [Indexed: 02/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Historically, fire has been essential in Southwestern US forests. However, a century of fire-exclusion and changing climate created forests which are more susceptible to uncharacteristically severe wildfires. Forest managers use a combination of thinning and prescribed burning to reduce forest density to help mitigate the risk of high-severity fires. These treatments are laborious and expensive, therefore optimizing their impact is crucial. Landscape simulation models can be useful in identifying high risk areas and assessing treatment effects, but uncertainties in these models can limit their utility in decision making. In this study we examined underlying uncertainties in the initial vegetation layer by leveraging a previous study from the Santa Fe fireshed and using new inventory plots from 111 stands to interpolate the initial forest conditions. We found that more inventory plots resulted in a different geographic distribution and wider range of the modelled biomass. This changed the location of areas with high probability of high-severity fires, shifting the optimal location for management. The increased range of biomass variability from using a larger number of plots to interpolate the initial vegetation layer also influenced ecosystem carbon dynamics, resulting in simulated forest conditions that had higher rates of carbon uptake. We conclude that the initial forest layer significantly affects fire and carbon dynamics and is dependent on both number of plots, and sufficient representation of the range of forest types and biomass density.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hagar Hecht
- Spatial Informatics Group Natural Assets Lab, Pleasanton, CA, USA.
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA.
| | - Dan J Krofcheck
- Sandia National Laboratory, Albuquerque, NM, USA
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
| | - Dennis Carril
- US Forest Service, Santa Fe National Forest, Santa Fe, NM, USA
| | - Matthew D Hurteau
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, USA
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2
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Furniss TJ, Hessburg PF, Povak NA, Salter RB, Wigmosta MS. Predicting future patterns, processes, and their interactions: Benchmark calibration and validation procedures for forest landscape models. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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3
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Prichard SJ, Hessburg PF, Hagmann RK, Povak NA, Dobrowski SZ, Hurteau MD, Kane VR, Keane RE, Kobziar LN, Kolden CA, North M, Parks SA, Safford HD, Stevens JT, Yocom LL, Churchill DJ, Gray RW, Huffman DW, Lake FK, Khatri‐Chhetri P. Adapting western North American forests to climate change and wildfires: 10 common questions. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02433. [PMID: 34339088 PMCID: PMC9285930 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2433] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Revised: 03/09/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
We review science-based adaptation strategies for western North American (wNA) forests that include restoring active fire regimes and fostering resilient structure and composition of forested landscapes. As part of the review, we address common questions associated with climate adaptation and realignment treatments that run counter to a broad consensus in the literature. These include the following: (1) Are the effects of fire exclusion overstated? If so, are treatments unwarranted and even counterproductive? (2) Is forest thinning alone sufficient to mitigate wildfire hazard? (3) Can forest thinning and prescribed burning solve the problem? (4) Should active forest management, including forest thinning, be concentrated in the wildland urban interface (WUI)? (5) Can wildfires on their own do the work of fuel treatments? (6) Is the primary objective of fuel reduction treatments to assist in future firefighting response and containment? (7) Do fuel treatments work under extreme fire weather? (8) Is the scale of the problem too great? Can we ever catch up? (9) Will planting more trees mitigate climate change in wNA forests? And (10) is post-fire management needed or even ecologically justified? Based on our review of the scientific evidence, a range of proactive management actions are justified and necessary to keep pace with changing climatic and wildfire regimes and declining forest heterogeneity after severe wildfires. Science-based adaptation options include the use of managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and coupled mechanical thinning and prescribed burning as is consistent with land management allocations and forest conditions. Although some current models of fire management in wNA are averse to short-term risks and uncertainties, the long-term environmental, social, and cultural consequences of wildfire management primarily grounded in fire suppression are well documented, highlighting an urgency to invest in intentional forest management and restoration of active fire regimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan J. Prichard
- University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest SciencesSeattleWashington98195‐2100USA
| | - Paul F. Hessburg
- University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest SciencesSeattleWashington98195‐2100USA
- U.S. Forest Service PNW Research StationWenatcheeWashington98801USA
| | - R. Keala Hagmann
- University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest SciencesSeattleWashington98195‐2100USA
- Applegate Forestry LLCCorvallisOregon97330USA
| | - Nicholas A. Povak
- U.S. Forest ServicePacific Southwest Research StationInstitute of Forest Genetics2480 Carson RoadPlacervilleCalifornia95667USA
| | - Solomon Z. Dobrowski
- University of Montana College of Forestry and ConservationMissoulaMontana59812USA
| | - Matthew D. Hurteau
- University of New Mexico Biology DepartmentAlbuquerqueNew Mexico87131‐0001USA
| | - Van R. Kane
- University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest SciencesSeattleWashington98195‐2100USA
| | - Robert E. Keane
- U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research StationMissoula Fire Sciences LaboratoryMissoulaMontana59808USA
| | - Leda N. Kobziar
- Department of Natural Resources and SocietyUniversity of IdahoMoscowIdaho83844USA
| | - Crystal A. Kolden
- School of EngineeringUniversity of California MercedMercedCalifornia95343USA
| | - Malcolm North
- U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research Station1731 Research ParkDavisCalifornia95618USA
| | - Sean A. Parks
- U.S. Forest Service Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research InstituteMissoulaMontana59801USA
| | - Hugh D. Safford
- U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research StationAlbanyCalifornia94710USA
| | - Jens T. Stevens
- U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science CenterNew Mexico Landscapes Field StationSanta FeNew Mexico87544USA
| | - Larissa L. Yocom
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology CenterUtah State University College of Agriculture and Applied SciencesLoganUtah84322USA
| | - Derek J. Churchill
- Washington State Department of Natural Resources Forest Health ProgramOlympiaWashington98504USA
| | - Robert W. Gray
- R.W. Gray ConsultingChilliwackBritish ColumbiaV2R2N2Canada
| | - David W. Huffman
- Northern Arizona University Ecological Restoration InstituteFlagstaffArizona86011USA
| | - Frank K. Lake
- U.S. Forest Service Pacific Southwest Research StationArcataCalifornia95521USA
| | - Pratima Khatri‐Chhetri
- University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest SciencesSeattleWashington98195‐2100USA
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4
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Flanagan SA, Hiers JK, Callaham MA, Goodrick S, O’Brien JJ, Starr G, Wiesner S, Klepzig KD, Loudermilk EL. A model comparison of fire return interval impacts on carbon and species dynamics in a southeastern U.S. pineland. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Steven A. Flanagan
- Wildland Fire Science Program Tall Timbers Research Station 13093 Henry Beadel Drive Tallahassee Florida 32312 USA
| | - J. Kevin Hiers
- Wildland Fire Science Program Tall Timbers Research Station 13093 Henry Beadel Drive Tallahassee Florida 32312 USA
| | - Mac A. Callaham
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Scott Goodrick
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Joseph J. O’Brien
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Gregory Starr
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alabama Tuscaloosa Alabama 35487 USA
| | - Susanne Wiesner
- Department of Biological System Engineering University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Kier D. Klepzig
- The Jones Center at Ichauway 3988 Jones Center Drive Newton Georgia 39870 USA
| | - E. Louise Loudermilk
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
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Volkova L, Roxburgh SH, Weston CJ. Effects of prescribed fire frequency on wildfire emissions and carbon sequestration in a fire adapted ecosystem using a comprehensive carbon model. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2021; 290:112673. [PMID: 33915349 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/20/2020] [Revised: 04/06/2021] [Accepted: 04/15/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Prescribed fire to reduce forest fuels has been routinely applied to reduce wildfire risk in many parts of the world. It has also been proposed that prescribed fire can be used to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Although prescribed fire creates emissions, if the treatment also decreases the incidence of subsequent wildfires, it is possible for the net outcome to be an emissions decline. Previous studies have suggested prescribed fire, at the frequencies required to materially impact wildfire occurrence, generally leads to net emissions increases. A focus on emissions means any change in carbon storage within the ecosystem remains unaccounted for; because living, dead, and soil carbon pools are characterized by different residence times, a re-distribution of carbon amongst these pools may either reduce or increase long-term ecosystem carbon stores. A full ecosystem carbon model has been developed to investigate the implications of prescribed fire management on total Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance (NECB), inclusive of both emissions and carbon storage. Consistent with previous work, the results suggested limited potential for reducing net GHG emissions through applying prescribed fire, with higher emissions from prescribed fire approximately offset by lower emissions and avoided carbon losses from the subsequent reduction in wildfire frequency. For example, shortening the prescribed fire interval from 25 to 10 years resulted in a NECB sequestration that was typically less than ±0.4 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, or less than approximately 0.1% of the total ecosystem carbon storage. Hence, whilst there was limited opportunity for achieving emission abatement outcomes from changing prescribed fire management, there were no significant emission penalties for doing so. These results suggest land managers should be free to adopt prescribed fire regimes to target specific management outcomes, without significantly impacting net emissions or total ecosystem carbon storage over the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liubov Volkova
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia; CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia.
| | | | - Christopher J Weston
- School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Creswick, Victoria, 3363, Australia
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6
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Ling P, Prince S, Baiocchi G, Dymond C, Xi W, Hurtt G. Impact of fire and harvest on forest ecosystem services in a species‐rich area in the southern Appalachians. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3150] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Pui‐Yu Ling
- Department of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20782 USA
| | - Stephen Prince
- Department of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20782 USA
| | - Giovanni Baiocchi
- Department of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20782 USA
| | - Caren Dymond
- Competitiveness and Innovation Branch Government of British Columbia Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Weimin Xi
- Department of Biological and Health Sciences Texas A&M University‐Kingsville Kingsville Texas 78363 USA
| | - George Hurtt
- Department of Geographical Sciences University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20782 USA
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8
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Ager AA, Barros AM, Houtman R, Seli R, Day MA. Modelling the effect of accelerated forest management on long-term wildfire activity. Ecol Modell 2020. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.108962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/24/2022]
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9
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McCauley LA, Robles MD, Woolley T, Marshall RM, Kretchun A, Gori DF. Large-scale forest restoration stabilizes carbon under climate change in Southwest United States. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01979. [PMID: 31332869 PMCID: PMC6916600 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1979] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2019] [Revised: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 06/24/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Higher tree density, more fuels, and a warmer, drier climate have caused an increase in the frequency, size, and severity of wildfires in western U.S. forests. There is an urgent need to restore forests across the western United States. To address this need, the U.S. Forest Service began the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) to restore four national forests in Arizona. The objective of this study was to evaluate how restoration of ~400,000 ha under the 4FRI program and projected climate change would influence carbon dynamics and wildfire severity from 2010 to 2099. Specifically, we estimated forest carbon fluxes, carbon pools and wildfire severity under a moderate and fast 4FRI implementation schedule and compared those to status quo and no-harvest scenarios using the LANDIS-II simulation model and climate change projections. We found that the fast-4FRI scenario showed early decreases in ecosystem carbon due to initial thinning/prescribed fire treatments, but total ecosystem carbon increased by 9-18% over no harvest by the end of the simulation. This increased carbon storage by 6.3-12.7 million metric tons, depending on the climate model, equating to removal of carbon emissions from 55,000 to 110,000 passenger vehicles per year until the end of the century. Nearly half of the additional carbon was stored in more stable soil pools. However, climate models with the largest predicted temperature increases showed declines by late century in ecosystem carbon despite restoration. Our study uses data from a real-world, large-scale restoration project and indicates that restoration is likely to stabilize carbon and the benefits are greater when the pace of restoration is faster.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa A. McCauley
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | - Marcos D. Robles
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | - Travis Woolley
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyFlagstaffArizona86001USA
| | - Robert M. Marshall
- Center for Science and Public PolicyThe Nature ConservancyTucsonArizona85719USA
| | | | - David F. Gori
- School of Natural Resources and the EnvironmentUniversity of ArizonaTucsonArizona85721USA
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10
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Cassell BA, Scheller RM, Lucash MS, Hurteau MD, Loudermilk EL. Widespread severe wildfires under climate change lead to increased forest homogeneity in dry mixed‐conifer forests. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Brooke A. Cassell
- Environmental Science and Management Department Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - Robert M. Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - Melissa S. Lucash
- Department of Geography Portland State University Portland Oregon USA
| | - Matthew D. Hurteau
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - E. Louise Loudermilk
- Southern Research Station Center for Forest Disturbance Science USDA Forest Service Athens Georgia USA
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11
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Flanagan SA, Bhotika S, Hawley C, Starr G, Wiesner S, Hiers JK, O'Brien JJ, Goodrick S, Callaham MA, Scheller RM, Klepzig KD, Taylor RS, Loudermilk EL. Quantifying carbon and species dynamics under different fire regimes in a southeastern U.S. pineland. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Steven A. Flanagan
- Wildland Fire Science Program Tall Timbers Research Station 13093 Henry Beadel Drive Tallahassee Florida 32312 USA
| | - Smriti Bhotika
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
- AAAS 1200 New York Avenue, NW Washington D.C. 20005 USA
| | - Christie Hawley
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Gregory Starr
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alabama Tuscaloosa Alabama 35487 USA
| | - Susanne Wiesner
- Department of Biological Sciences University of Alabama Tuscaloosa Alabama 35487 USA
| | - J. Kevin Hiers
- Wildland Fire Science Program Tall Timbers Research Station 13093 Henry Beadel Drive Tallahassee Florida 32312 USA
| | - Joseph J. O'Brien
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Scott Goodrick
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Mac A. Callaham
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
| | - Robert M. Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina 27695 USA
| | - Kier D. Klepzig
- Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center 3988 Jones Center Dr. Newton Georgia 39870 USA
| | - R. Scott Taylor
- Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center 3988 Jones Center Dr. Newton Georgia 39870 USA
| | - E. Louise Loudermilk
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science Southern Research Center U.S. Forest Service 320 Green Street Athens Georgia 30602 USA
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12
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Krofcheck DJ, Loudermilk EL, Hiers JK, Scheller RM, Hurteau MD. The effects of management on long‐term carbon stability in a southeastern U.S. forest matrix under extreme fire weather. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2631] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/02/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- D. J. Krofcheck
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
| | - E. L. Loudermilk
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station Athens Georgia USA
| | - J. K. Hiers
- Wildland Fire Sciences Program Tall Timbers Research Station Tallahassee Florida USA
| | - R. M. Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources North Carolina State University Raleigh North Carolina USA
| | - M. D. Hurteau
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico Albuquerque New Mexico USA
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13
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Swanteson‐Franz RJ, Krofcheck DJ, Hurteau MD. Quantifying forest carbon dynamics as a function of tree species composition and management under projected climate. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2191] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Daniel J. Krofcheck
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico MSC03 2020 Albuquerque New Mexico 87131 USA
| | - Matthew D. Hurteau
- Department of Biology University of New Mexico MSC03 2020 Albuquerque New Mexico 87131 USA
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Krofcheck DJ, Hurteau MD, Scheller RM, Loudermilk EL. Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2018; 24:729-737. [PMID: 28940527 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13913] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2017] [Revised: 08/30/2017] [Accepted: 09/15/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
In frequent fire forests of the western United States, a legacy of fire suppression coupled with increases in fire weather severity have altered fire regimes and vegetation dynamics. When coupled with projected climate change, these conditions have the potential to lead to vegetation type change and altered carbon (C) dynamics. In the Sierra Nevada, fuels reduction approaches that include mechanical thinning followed by regular prescribed fire are one approach to restore the ability of the ecosystem to tolerate episodic fire and still sequester C. Yet, the spatial extent of the area requiring treatment makes widespread treatment implementation unlikely. We sought to determine if a priori knowledge of where uncharacteristic wildfire is most probable could be used to optimize the placement of fuels treatments in a Sierra Nevada watershed. We developed two treatment placement strategies: the naive strategy, based on treating all operationally available area and the optimized strategy, which only treated areas where crown-killing fires were most probable. We ran forecast simulations using projected climate data through 2,100 to determine how the treatments differed in terms of C sequestration, fire severity, and C emissions relative to a no-management scenario. We found that in both the short (20 years) and long (100 years) term, both management scenarios increased C stability, reduced burn severity, and consequently emitted less C as a result of wildfires than no-management. Across all metrics, both scenarios performed the same, but the optimized treatment required significantly less C removal (naive=0.42 Tg C, optimized=0.25 Tg C) to achieve the same treatment efficacy. Given the extent of western forests in need of fire restoration, efficiently allocating treatments is a critical task if we are going to restore adaptive capacity in frequent-fire forests.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Robert M Scheller
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA
| | - E Louise Loudermilk
- Center for Forest Disturbance Science, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA, USA
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