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Walker XJ, Hart S, Hansen WD, Jean M, Brown CD, Stuart Chapin F, Hewitt R, Hollingsworth TN, Mack MC, Johnstone JF. Factors limiting the potential range expansion of lodgepole pine in Interior Alaska. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2983. [PMID: 38840517 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2983] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2023] [Revised: 01/14/2024] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 06/07/2024]
Abstract
Understanding the factors influencing species range limits is increasingly crucial in anticipating migrations due to human-caused climate change. In the boreal biome, ongoing climate change and the associated increases in the rate, size, and severity of disturbances may alter the distributions of boreal tree species. Notably, Interior Alaska lacks native pine, a biogeographical anomaly that carries implications for ecosystem structure and function. The current range of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in the adjacent Yukon Territory may expand into Interior Alaska, particularly with human assistance. Evaluating the potential for pine expansion in Alaska requires testing constraints on range limits such as dispersal limitations, environmental tolerance limits, and positive or negative biotic interactions. In this study, we used field experiments with pine seeds and transplanted seedlings, complemented by model simulations, to assess the abiotic and biotic factors influencing lodgepole pine seedling establishment and growth after fire in Interior Alaska. We found that pine could successfully recruit, survive, grow, and reproduce across our broadly distributed network of experimental sites. Our results show that both mammalian herbivory and competition from native tree species are unlikely to constrain pine growth and that environmental conditions commonly found in Interior Alaska fall well within the tolerance limits for pine. If dispersal constraints are released, lodgepole pine could have a geographically expansive range in Alaska, and once established, its growth is sufficient to support pine-dominated stands. Given the impacts of lodgepole pine on ecosystem processes such as increases in timber production, carbon sequestration, landscape flammability, and reduced forage quality, natural or human-assisted migration of this species is likely to substantially alter responses of Alaskan forest ecosystems to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xanthe J Walker
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Sarah Hart
- Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Mélanie Jean
- Département de biologie, Université de Moncton, Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Carissa D Brown
- Department of Geography, Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
| | - F Stuart Chapin
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
| | - Rebecca Hewitt
- Department of Environmental Studies, Amherst College, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Michelle C Mack
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Jill F Johnstone
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska, USA
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Dobor L, Baldo M, Bílek L, Barka I, Máliš F, Štěpánek P, Hlásny T. The interacting effect of climate change and herbivory can trigger large-scale transformations of European temperate forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2024; 30:e17194. [PMID: 38385958 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2023] [Revised: 01/25/2024] [Accepted: 01/25/2024] [Indexed: 02/23/2024]
Abstract
In many regions of Europe, large wild herbivores alter forest community composition through their foraging preferences, hinder the forest's natural adaptive responses to climate change, and reduce ecosystem resilience. We investigated a widespread European forest type, a mixed forest dominated by Picea abies, which has recently experienced an unprecedented level of disturbance across the continent. Using the forest landscape model iLand, we investigated the combined effect of climate change and herbivory on forest structure, composition, and carbon and identified conditions leading to ecosystem transitions on a 300-year timescale. Eight climate change scenarios, driven by Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, combined with three levels of regeneration browsing, were tested. We found that the persistence of the current level of browsing pressure impedes adaptive changes in community composition and sustains the presence of the vulnerable yet less palatable P. abies. These development trajectories were tortuous, characterized by a high disturbance intensity. On the contrary, reduced herbivory initiated a transformation towards the naturally dominant broadleaved species that was associated with an increased forest carbon and a considerably reduced disturbance. The conditions of RCP4.5 combined with high and moderate browsing levels preserved the forest within its reference range of variability, defining the actual boundaries of resilience. The remaining combinations of browsing and climate change led to ecosystem transitions. Under RCP4.5 with browsing effects excluded, the new equilibrium conditions were achieved within 120 years, whereas the stabilization was delayed by 50-100 years under RCP8.5 with higher browsing intensities. We conclude that forests dominated by P. abies are prone to transitions driven by climate change. However, reducing herbivory can set the forest on a stable and predictable trajectory, whereas sustaining the current browsing levels can lead to heightened disturbance activity, extended transition times, and high variability in the target conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Marco Baldo
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Lukáš Bílek
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - František Máliš
- National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
- Faculty of Forestry, Technical University Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
| | - Petr Štěpánek
- Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Prague 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic
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Brodie EG, Stewart JAE, Winsemius S, Miller JED, Latimer AM, Safford HD. Wildfire facilitates upslope advance in a shade-intolerant but not a shade-tolerant conifer. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2023; 33:e2888. [PMID: 37212209 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2888] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2022] [Revised: 04/24/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 05/23/2023]
Abstract
Wildfires may facilitate climate tracking of forest species moving upslope or north in latitude. For subalpine tree species, for which higher elevation habitat is limited, accelerated replacement by lower elevation montane tree species following fire may hasten extinction risk. We used a dataset of postfire tree regeneration spanning a broad geographic range to ask whether the fire facilitated upslope movement of montane tree species at the montane-to-subalpine ecotone. We sampled tree seedling occurrence in 248 plots across a fire severity gradient (unburned to >90% basal area mortality) and spanning ~500 km of latitude in Mediterranean-type subalpine forest in California, USA. We used logistic regression to quantify differences in postfire regeneration between resident subalpine species and the seedling-only range (interpreted as climate-induced range extension) of montane species. We tested our assumption of increasing climatic suitability for montane species in subalpine forest using the predicted difference in habitat suitability at study plots between 1990 and 2030. We found that postfire regeneration of resident subalpine species was uncorrelated or weakly positively correlated with fire severity. Regeneration of montane species, however, was roughly four times greater in unburned relative to burned subalpine forest. Although our overall results contrast with theoretical predictions of disturbance-facilitated range shifts, we found opposing postfire regeneration responses for montane species with distinct regeneration niches. Recruitment of shade-tolerant red fir declined with fire severity and recruitment of shade-intolerant Jeffrey pine increased with fire severity. Predicted climatic suitability increased by 5% for red fir and 34% for Jeffrey pine. Differing postfire responses in newly climatically available habitats indicate that wildfire disturbance may only facilitate range extensions for species whose preferred regeneration conditions align with increased light and/or other postfire landscape characteristics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily G Brodie
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Joseph A E Stewart
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Sara Winsemius
- Department of Land Air and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Jesse E D Miller
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
- Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
| | - Andrew M Latimer
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
| | - Hugh D Safford
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, California, USA
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Yang M, Zhao H, Xian X, Wang R, Yang N, Chen L, Liu WX. Assessing risk from invasive alien plants in China: Reconstructing invasion history and estimating distribution patterns of Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 2023; 14:1113567. [PMID: 36818845 PMCID: PMC9933513 DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1113567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2022] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The establishment of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is primarily driven by climate warming and human activities, and their populations have a negative impact on agricultural economics, ecological systems, and human health. Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii are critical IAPs in China because they reduce the quality of cereal grains and decrease wheat yields. Lolium temulentum is a winter-temperate weed that spreads easily and is poisonous to humans and animals. Aegilops tauschii is resistant to herbicides, has a high reproductive rate, and frequently grows in wheat. Both species have been listed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China's management catalog since 2006. METHODS In the present study, the historical occurrence and invasion of each species were collected and reconstructed, which showed that the population outbreak of L. temulentum began in 2010, whereas that of A. tauschii began in 2000. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the geographical distributions of L. temulentum and A. tauschii were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s and 2050s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). RESULTS The mean AUC values were 0.867 and 0.931 for L. temulentum and A. tauschii, respectively. Human influence index (HII), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) were the most significant variables for L. temulentum, whereas human influence index, temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) (bio4), and annual mean temperature (bio1) were the critical environmental variables for A. tauschi. Suitable habitat areas in China for L. temulentum and A. tauschii currently covered total areas of 125 × 104 and 235 × 104 km2, respectively. Future suitable areas of L. temulentum reached the maximum under SSP2-4.5, from 2021 to 2060, whereas for A. tauschii they reached the maximum under SSP5-8.5, from 2021 to 2060. Furthermore, the overlap area under the current climate conditions for L. temulentum and A. tauschii was approximately 90 × 104 km2, mainly located in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. The overlap areas decreased in the 2030s, increased in the 2050s, and reached a maximum under SSP1-2.6 (or SSP2-4.5) with an approximate area of 104 × 104 km2. The centroid of L. temulentum in Henan was transferred to the southwest, whereas for A. tauschii it transferred to higher latitudes in the northeast. DISCUSSION Our findings provide a practical reference for the early warning, control, and management of these two destructive IAP populations in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ming Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
- School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding, China
| | - Haoxiang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoqing Xian
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
| | - Rui Wang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
| | - Nianwan Yang
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
- Western Agricultural Research Center, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji, China
| | - Li Chen
- School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding, China
| | - Wan-xue Liu
- State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China
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Burrell AL, Sun Q, Baxter R, Kukavskaya EA, Zhila S, Shestakova T, Rogers BM, Kaduk J, Barrett K. Climate change, fire return intervals and the growing risk of permanent forest loss in boreal Eurasia. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 831:154885. [PMID: 35358519 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154885] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2021] [Revised: 03/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/24/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Climate change has driven an increase in the frequency and severity of fires in Eurasian boreal forests. A growing number of field studies have linked the change in fire regime to post-fire recruitment failure and permanent forest loss. In this study we used four burned area and two forest loss datasets to calculate the landscape-scale fire return interval (FRI) and associated risk of permanent forest loss. We then used machine learning to predict how the FRI will change under a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) by the end of the century. We found that there are currently 133,000 km2 forest at high, or extreme, risk of fire-induced forest loss, with a further 3 M km2 at risk by the end of the century. This has the potential to degrade or destroy some of the largest remaining intact forests in the world, negatively impact the health and economic wellbeing of people living in the region, as well as accelerate global climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Arden L Burrell
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States of America; Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, LE1 7RH, United Kingdom.
| | - Qiaoqi Sun
- Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Upper Mountjoy, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Harbin 150040, China
| | - Robert Baxter
- Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Upper Mountjoy, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, United Kingdom
| | - Elena A Kukavskaya
- V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - separate subdivision of the FRC KSC SB RAS, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok 50/28, Russian Federation
| | - Sergey Zhila
- V.N. Sukachev Institute of Forest of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences - separate subdivision of the FRC KSC SB RAS, 660036 Krasnoyarsk, Akademgorodok 50/28, Russian Federation
| | - Tatiana Shestakova
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States of America
| | - Brendan M Rogers
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States of America
| | - Jörg Kaduk
- Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, LE1 7RH, United Kingdom
| | - Kirsten Barrett
- Centre for Landscape and Climate Research, School of Geography, Geology and Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, LE1 7RH, United Kingdom
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6
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Day NJ, Johnstone JF, Reid KA, Cumming SG, Mack MC, Turetsky MR, Walker XJ, Baltzer JL. Material Legacies and Environmental Constraints Underlie Fire Resilience of a Dominant Boreal Forest Type. Ecosystems 2022; 26:473-490. [PMID: 37179797 PMCID: PMC10167110 DOI: 10.1007/s10021-022-00772-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Resilience of plant communities to disturbance is supported by multiple mechanisms, including ecological legacies affecting propagule availability, species' environmental tolerances, and biotic interactions. Understanding the relative importance of these mechanisms for plant community resilience supports predictions of where and how resilience will be altered with disturbance. We tested mechanisms underlying resilience of forests dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) to fire disturbance across a heterogeneous forest landscape in the Northwest Territories, Canada. We combined surveys of naturally regenerating seedlings at 219 burned plots with experimental manipulations of ecological legacies via seed addition of four tree species and vertebrate exclosures to limit granivory and herbivory at 30 plots varying in moisture and fire severity. Black spruce recovery was greatest where it dominated pre-fire, at wet sites with deep residual soil organic layers, and fire conditions of low soil or canopy combustion and longer return intervals. Experimental addition of seed indicated all species were seed-limited, emphasizing the importance of propagule legacies. Black spruce and birch (Betula papyrifera) recruitment were enhanced with vertebrate exclusion. Our combination of observational and experimental studies demonstrates black spruce is vulnerable to effects of increased fire activity that erode ecological legacies. Moreover, black spruce relies on wet areas with deep soil organic layers where other species are less competitive. However, other species can colonize these areas if enough seed is available or soil moisture is altered by climate change. Testing mechanisms underlying species' resilience to disturbance aids predictions of where vegetation will transform with effects of climate change. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10021-022-00772-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicola J. Day
- Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario Canada
- School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand
| | - Jill F. Johnstone
- YukonU Research Centre, Yukon University, Whitehorse, Yukon Canada
- Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska USA
| | - Kirsten A. Reid
- Biology Department, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario Canada
- Present Address: Department of Geography, Memorial University, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Faculté de foresterie, de géographie et de géomatique, Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Université Laval, Québec, Québec Canada
| | - Michelle C. Mack
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona USA
| | - Merritt R. Turetsky
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado USA
| | - Xanthe J. Walker
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona USA
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Soilhi Z, Sayari N, Benalouache N, Mekki M. Predicting current and future distributions of Mentha pulegium L. in Tunisia under climate change conditions, using the MaxEnt model. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
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8
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Kobayashi Y, Seidl R, Rammer W, Suzuki KF, Mori AS. Identifying effective tree planting schemes to restore forest carbon and biodiversity in Shiretoko National Park, Japan. Restor Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13681] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yuta Kobayashi
- Faculty of Environment and Information Sciences Yokohama National University 79‐7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama Kanagawa 240‐8501 Japan
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology the University of Tokyo 4‐6‐1 Komaba Meguro Tokyo 153‐8904 Japan
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich Hans‐Carl‐von‐Carlowitz‐Platz 2, Freising Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park Berchtesgaden Doktorberg 6, 83471 Germany
| | - Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich Hans‐Carl‐von‐Carlowitz‐Platz 2, Freising Germany
| | - Kureha F. Suzuki
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences Yokohama National University 79‐7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama Kanagawa 240‐8501 Japan
| | - Akira S. Mori
- Faculty of Environment and Information Sciences Yokohama National University 79‐7 Tokiwadai, Hodogaya, Yokohama Kanagawa 240‐8501 Japan
- Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology the University of Tokyo 4‐6‐1 Komaba Meguro Tokyo 153‐8904 Japan
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9
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The Influence of Burn Severity on Post-Fire Spectral Recovery of Three Fires in the Southern Rocky Mountains. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14061363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Increased wildfire activity and altered post-fire climate in the Southern Rocky Mountains has the potential to influence forest resilience. The Southern Rocky Mountains are a leading edge of climate change and have experienced record-breaking fires in recent years. The change in post-fire regeneration and forest resilience could potentially include future ecological trajectories. In this paper, we examined patterns of post-fire spectral recovery using Landsat time series. Additionally, we utilized random forest models to analyze the impact of climate and burn severity on three fire events in the Southern Rocky Mountains. Fifteen years following the fires, none of the burned stands fully recovered to their pre-fire spectral states. The results suggested that burn severity significantly impacted post-fire spectral recovery, but that influence may decrease as time since fire increases. The biggest difference in forest recovery was among fire events, indicating that post-fire climate may be influential in post-fire recovery. The mean and minimum growing-season temperatures were more significant to post-fire recovery than the variability in precipitation, which is consistent with field-based analysis. The present study indicated that, as warming continues, there may be changes in forest density where forests are not regenerating to their pre-fire spectral states. Additionally, this study emphasizes how high-elevation forests continue to regenerate after fires, but that regeneration is markedly affected by post-fire climate.
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10
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Gill NS, Turner MG, Brown CD, Glassman SI, Haire SL, Hansen WD, Pansing ER, St Clair SB, Tomback DF. Limitations to Propagule Dispersal Will Constrain Postfire Recovery of Plants and Fungi in Western Coniferous Forests. Bioscience 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab139] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
Many forest species are adapted to long-interval, high-severity fires, but the intervals between severe fires are decreasing with changes in climate, land use, and biological invasions. Although the effects of changing fire regimes on some important recovery processes have previously been considered, the consequences for the dispersal of propagules (plant seeds and fungal spores) in forest communities have not. We characterize three mechanisms by which changing fire regimes disrupt propagule dispersal in mesic temperate, boreal, and high-elevation forests: reduced abundance and altered spatial distributions of propagule source populations, less effective dispersal of propagules by wind, and altered behavior of animal dispersers and propagule predators. We consider how disruptions to propagule dispersal may interact with other factors that are also influenced by fire regime change, potentially increasing risk of forest conversion. Finally, we highlight urgent research topics regarding how dispersal limitation may shape twenty-first century forest recovery after stand-replacing fire.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nathan S Gill
- Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas, United States
| | - Monica G Turner
- University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States
| | - Carissa D Brown
- Memorial University, St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada
| | | | - Sandra L Haire
- Haire Laboratory for Landscape Ecology, Tucson, Arizona, United States
| | | | | | | | - Diana F Tomback
- University of Colorado Denver, Denver, Colorado, United States
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11
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Hoecker TJ, Turner MG. Combined effects of climate and fire‐driven vegetation change constrain the distributions of forest vertebrates during the 21st century. DIVERS DISTRIB 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.13470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Tyler J. Hoecker
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
- Department of Forest Management Franke College of Forestry and Conservation University of Montana Missoula Montana USA
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
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12
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Turner MG, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Hoecker TJ, Rammer W, Ratajczak Z, Westerling AL, Seidl R. The magnitude, direction, and tempo of forest change in Greater Yellowstone in a warmer world with more fire. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Winslow D. Hansen
- Earth Institute Columbia University New York City New York 10025 USA
| | - Tyler J. Hoecker
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Werner Rammer
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan Kansas 66506‐4901 USA
| | - A. Leroy Westerling
- Sierra Nevada Research Institute and School of Engineering University of California‐Merced Merced California 95343 USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich 85354 Freising Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park 83471 Berchtesgaden Germany
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13
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Dietzel A, Connolly SR, Hughes TP, Bode M. The spatial footprint and patchiness of large-scale disturbances on coral reefs. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4825-4838. [PMID: 34390297 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15805] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/21/2020] [Revised: 06/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystems have always been shaped by disturbances, but many of these events are becoming larger, more severe and more frequent. The recovery capacity of depleted populations depends on the frequency of disturbances, the spatial distribution of mortality and the scale of dispersal. Here, we show that four mass coral bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef (in 1998, 2002, 2016 and 2017) each had markedly larger disturbance footprints and were less patchy than a severe category 5 tropical cyclone (Cyclone Yasi, 2011). Severely bleached reefs in 2016 and 2017 were isolated from the nearest lightly affected reefs by up to 146 and 200 km, respectively. In contrast, reefs damaged by Cyclone Yasi were on average 20 km away from relatively undisturbed reefs, well within the estimated range of larval dispersal for most corals. Based on these results, we present a model of coral reef disturbance and recovery to examine (1) how the spatial clustering of disturbances modifies large-scale recovery rates; and (2) how recovery rates are shaped by species' dispersal abilities. Our findings illustrate that the spatial footprint of the recent mass bleaching events poses an unprecedented threat to the resilience of coral species in human history, a threat that is even larger than the amount of mortality suggests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Dietzel
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Sean R Connolly
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Balboa, Republic of Panama
| | - Terry P Hughes
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Michael Bode
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
- School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
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14
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Rammer W, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Ratajczak Z, Westerling AL, Turner MG, Seidl R. Widespread regeneration failure in forests of Greater Yellowstone under scenarios of future climate and fire. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:4339-4351. [PMID: 34213047 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Revised: 05/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Changing climate and disturbance regimes are increasingly challenging the resilience of forest ecosystems around the globe. A powerful indicator for the loss of resilience is regeneration failure, that is, the inability of the prevailing tree species to regenerate after disturbance. Regeneration failure can result from the interplay among disturbance changes (e.g., larger and more frequent fires), altered climate conditions (e.g., increased drought), and functional traits (e.g., method of seed dispersal). This complexity makes projections of regeneration failure challenging. Here we applied a novel simulation approach assimilating data-driven fire projections with vegetation responses from process modeling by means of deep neural networks. We (i) quantified the future probability of regeneration failure; (ii) identified spatial hotspots of regeneration failure; and (iii) assessed how current forest types differ in their ability to regenerate under future climate and fire. We focused on the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (2.9 × 106 ha of forest) in the Rocky Mountains of the USA, which has experienced large wildfires in the past and is expected to undergo drastic changes in climate and fire in the future. We simulated four climate scenarios until 2100 at a fine spatial grain (100 m). Both wildfire activity and unstocked forest area increased substantially throughout the 21st century in all simulated scenarios. By 2100, between 28% and 59% of the forested area failed to regenerate, indicating considerable loss of resilience. Areas disproportionally at risk occurred where fires are not constrained by topography and in valleys aligned with predominant winds. High-elevation forest types not adapted to fire (i.e., Picea engelmannii-Abies lasiocarpa as well as non-serotinous Pinus contorta var. latifolia forests) were especially vulnerable to regeneration failure. We conclude that changing climate and fire could exceed the resilience of forests in a substantial portion of Greater Yellowstone, with profound implications for carbon, biodiversity, and recreation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Werner Rammer
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
| | - Kristin H Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Winslow D Hansen
- Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
- Division of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, USA
| | | | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management Group, Technical University of Munich, Freising, Germany
- Berchtesgaden National Park, Berchtesgaden, Germany
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15
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Vanderhoof MK, Hawbaker TJ, Ku A, Merriam K, Berryman E, Cattau M. Tracking rates of postfire conifer regeneration vs. deciduous vegetation recovery across the western United States. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02237. [PMID: 33064886 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2020] [Revised: 07/01/2020] [Accepted: 08/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Postfire shifts in vegetation composition will have broad ecological impacts. However, information characterizing postfire recovery patterns and their drivers are lacking over large spatial extents. In this analysis, we used Landsat imagery collected when snow cover (SCS) was present, in combination with growing season (GS) imagery, to distinguish evergreen vegetation from deciduous vegetation. We sought to (1) characterize patterns in the rate of postfire, dual-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) across the region, (2) relate remotely sensed patterns to field-measured patterns of re-vegetation, and (3) identify seasonally specific drivers of postfire rates of NDVI recovery. Rates of postfire NDVI recovery were calculated for both the GS and SCS for more than 12,500 burned points across the western United States. Points were partitioned into faster and slower rates of NDVI recovery using thresholds derived from field plot data (n = 230) and their associated rates of NDVI recovery. We found plots with conifer saplings had significantly higher SCS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots without conifer saplings, while plots with ≥50% grass/forbs/shrubs cover had significantly higher GS NDVI recovery rates relative to plots with <50%. GS rates of NDVI recovery were best predicted by burn severity and anomalies in postfire maximum temperature. SCS NDVI recovery rates were best explained by aridity and growing degree days. This study is the most extensive effort, to date, to track postfire forest recovery across the western United States. Isolating patterns and drivers of evergreen recovery from deciduous recovery will enable improved characterization of forest ecological condition across large spatial scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Melanie K Vanderhoof
- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS980, Denver, Colorado, 80225, USA
| | - Todd J Hawbaker
- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS980, Denver, Colorado, 80225, USA
| | - Andrea Ku
- Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, P.O. Box 25046, DFC, MS980, Denver, Colorado, 80225, USA
| | - Kyle Merriam
- Sierra Cascade Province Ecology Program, USDA Forest Service, Quincy, California, 95971, USA
| | - Erin Berryman
- State and Private Forestry, Forest Health Protection, USDA Forest Service, 2150 Centre Avenue, Building A, Suite 331, Fort Collins, Colorado, 80526, USA
| | - Megan Cattau
- Human-Environment Systems, Boise State University, Boise, Idaho, 83706, USA
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16
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Emmett KD, Renwick KM, Poulter B. Adapting a dynamic vegetation model for regional biomass, plant biogeography, and fire modeling in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Evaluating LPJ-GUESS-LMfireCF. Ecol Modell 2021. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/22/2022]
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17
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Gill NS, Hoecker TJ, Turner MG. The propagule doesn’t fall far from the tree, especially after short‐interval, high‐severity fire. Ecology 2020; 102:e03194. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2019] [Revised: 02/27/2020] [Accepted: 07/31/2020] [Indexed: 12/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Nathan S. Gill
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison 430 Lincoln Drive Madison Wisconsin53706USA
| | - Tyler J. Hoecker
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison 430 Lincoln Drive Madison Wisconsin53706USA
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Wisconsin‐Madison 430 Lincoln Drive Madison Wisconsin53706USA
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18
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Albrich K, Rammer W, Turner MG, Ratajczak Z, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Seidl R. Simulating forest resilience: A review. GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY : A JOURNAL OF MACROECOLOGY 2020; 29:2082-2096. [PMID: 33380902 PMCID: PMC7756463 DOI: 10.1111/geb.13197] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Revised: 08/18/2020] [Accepted: 09/10/2020] [Indexed: 06/02/2023]
Abstract
AIM Simulation models are important tools for quantifying the resilience (i.e., persistence under changed environmental conditions) of forest ecosystems to global change. We synthesized the modelling literature on forest resilience, summarizing common models and applications in resilience research, and scrutinizing the implementation of important resilience mechanisms in these models. Models applied to assess resilience are highly diverse, and our goal was to assess how well they account for important resilience mechanisms identified in experimental and empirical research. LOCATION Global. TIME PERIOD 1994 to 2019. MAJOR TAXA STUDIED Trees. METHODS We reviewed the forest resilience literature using online databases, selecting 119 simulation modelling studies for further analysis. We identified a set of resilience mechanisms from the general resilience literature and analysed models for their representation of these mechanisms. Analyses were grouped by investigated drivers (resilience to what) and responses (resilience of what), as well as by the type of model being used. RESULTS Models used to study forest resilience varied widely, from analytical approaches to complex landscape simulators. The most commonly addressed questions were associated with resilience of forest cover to fire. Important resilience mechanisms pertaining to regeneration, soil processes, and disturbance legacies were explicitly simulated in only 34 to 46% of the model applications. MAIN CONCLUSIONS We found a large gap between processes identified as underpinning forest resilience in the theoretical and empirical literature, and those represented in models used to assess forest resilience. Contemporary forest models developed for other goals may be poorly suited for studying forest resilience during an era of accelerating change. Our results highlight the need for a new wave of model development to enhance understanding of and management for resilient forests.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Albrich
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Zak Ratajczak
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | - Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative BiologyUniversity of Wisconsin‐MadisonMadisonWisconsinUSA
| | | | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaWienAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
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19
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Habitat suitability mapping of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) under the effects of climate change. Biologia (Bratisl) 2020. [DOI: 10.2478/s11756-020-00594-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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20
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21
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Pansing ER, Tomback DF, Wunder MB. Climate‐altered fire regimes may increase extirpation risk in an upper subalpine conifer species of management concern. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3220] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth R. Pansing
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver CB 171, P.O. Box 173364 Denver Colorado80204USA
| | - Diana F. Tomback
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver CB 171, P.O. Box 173364 Denver Colorado80204USA
| | - Michael B. Wunder
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Colorado Denver CB 171, P.O. Box 173364 Denver Colorado80204USA
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22
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Albrich K, Rammer W, Seidl R. Climate change causes critical transitions and irreversible alterations of mountain forests. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2020; 26:4013-4027. [PMID: 32301569 PMCID: PMC7317840 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2019] [Revised: 03/18/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2020] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Katharina Albrich
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of SilvicultureUniversity of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) ViennaViennaAustria
- Ecosystem Dynamics and Forest Management GroupTechnical University of MunichFreisingGermany
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23
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Johnstone JF, Celis G, Chapin FS, Hollingsworth TN, Jean M, Mack MC. Factors shaping alternate successional trajectories in burned black spruce forests of Alaska. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3129] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- J. F. Johnstone
- Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska 99775 USA
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5A2 Canada
| | - G. Celis
- Department of Biological Sciences Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona 86001 USA
| | - F. S. Chapin
- Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska 99775 USA
| | - T. N. Hollingsworth
- Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska 99775 USA
- PNW Research Station USDA Forest Service Fairbanks Alaska 99775 USA
| | - M. Jean
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan S7N 5A2 Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona 86001 USA
| | - M. C. Mack
- Department of Biological Sciences Center for Ecosystem Science and Society Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona 86001 USA
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24
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Western Larch Regeneration Responds More Strongly to Site and Indirect Climate Factors Than to Direct Climate Factors. FORESTS 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/f11040482] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Substantial shifts in the distribution of western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.) are predicted during the coming decades in response to changing climatic conditions. However, it is unclear how the interplay between direct climate effects, such as warmer, drier conditions, and indirect climate effects, such as predicted increases in fire disturbance, will impact fire-adapted species such as western larch. The objectives of this study were (1) to compare the relative importance of stand, site, and indirect versus direct climatic factors in determining western larch seedling recruitment; (2) to determine whether seedling recruitment rates have changed in recent years in response to disturbance, post-fire weather, and/or climate; and (3) to determine whether seedlings and mature trees are experiencing niche differentiation based on recent climatic shifts. We addressed these objectives using data collected from 1286 national forest inventory plots in the US states of Idaho and Montana. We used statistical models to determine the relative importance of 35 stand, site, and climatic factors for larch seedling recruitment. Our results suggest that the most important predictors of larch seedling recruitment were indicative of early-seral stand conditions, and were often associated with recent fire disturbance and cutting. Despite indications of climatic niche compression, seedling recruitment rates have increased in recent decades, likely due to increased fire disturbance, and were unrelated to post-fire weather. Compared to sites occupied by mature trees, seedling recruitment was positively associated with cooler, drier climatic conditions, and particularly with cooler summer temperatures, but these climatic factors were generally less important than biotic stand variables such as stand age, basal area, and canopy cover. These results suggest that, for fire-dependent species such as western larch, increased heat and drought stress resulting from climatic change may be offset, at least in the near term, by an increase in early-seral stand conditions resulting from increased fire disturbance, although localized range contraction may occur at warm, dry extremes.
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Stochastic disturbance regimes alter patterns of ecosystem variability and recovery. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0229927. [PMID: 32150586 PMCID: PMC7062255 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/11/2019] [Accepted: 02/17/2020] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Altered ecosystem variability is an important ecological response to disturbance yet understanding of how various attributes of disturbance regimes affect ecosystem variability is limited. To improve the framework for understanding the disturbance regime attributes that affect ecosystem variability, we examine how the introduction of stochasticity to disturbance parameters (frequency, severity and extent) alters simulated recovery when compared to deterministic outcomes from a spatially explicit simulation model. We also examine the agreement between results from empirical studies and deterministic and stochastic configurations of the model. We find that stochasticity in disturbance frequency and spatial extent leads to the greatest increase in the variance of simulated dynamics, although stochastic severity also contributes to departures from the deterministic case. The incorporation of stochasticity in disturbance attributes improves agreement between empirical and simulated responses, with 71% of empirical responses correctly classified by stochastic configurations of the model as compared to 47% using the purely deterministic model. By comparison, only 2% of empirical responses were correctly classified by the deterministic model and misclassified by stochastic configurations of the model. These results indicate that stochasticity in the attributes of a disturbance regime alters the patterns and classification of ecosystem variability, suggesting altered recovery dynamics. Incorporating stochastic disturbance processes into models may thus be critical for anticipating the ecological resilience of ecosystems.
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26
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Hansen WD, Abendroth D, Rammer W, Seidl R, Turner MG. Can wildland fire management alter 21st-century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA? ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2020; 30:e02030. [PMID: 31674698 PMCID: PMC7612770 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/09/2019] [Revised: 08/09/2019] [Accepted: 09/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
In subalpine forests of the western United States that historically experienced infrequent, high-severity fire, whether fire management can shape 21st-century fire regimes and forest dynamics to meet natural resource objectives is not known. Managed wildfire use (i.e., allowing lightning-ignited fires to burn when risk is low instead of suppressing them) is one approach for maintaining natural fire regimes and fostering mosaics of forest structure, stand age, and tree-species composition, while protecting people and property. However, little guidance exists for where and when this strategy may be effective with climate change. We simulated most of the contiguous forest in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA to ask: (1) how would subalpine fires and forest structure be different if fires had not been suppressed during the last three decades? And (2) what is the relative influence of climate change vs. fire management strategy on future fire and forests? We contrasted fire and forests from 1989 to 2098 under two fire management scenarios (managed wildfire use and fire suppression), two general circulation models (CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2M), and two representative concentration pathways (8.5 and 4.5). We found little difference between management scenarios in the number, size, or severity of fires during the last three decades. With 21st-century warming, fire activity increased rapidly, particularly after 2050, and followed nearly identical trajectories in both management scenarios. Area burned per year between 2018 and 2099 was 1,700% greater than in the last three decades (1989-2017). Large areas of forest were abruptly lost; only 65% of the original 40,178 ha of forest remained by 2098. However, forests stayed connected and fuels were abundant enough to support profound increases in burning through this century. Our results indicate that strategies emphasizing managed wildfire use, rather than suppression, will not alter climate-induced changes to fire and forests in subalpine landscapes of western North America. This suggests that managers may continue to have flexibility to strategically suppress subalpine fires without concern for long-term consequences, in distinct contrast with dry conifer forests of the Rocky Mountains and mixed conifer forest of California where maintaining low fuel loads is essential for sustaining frequent, low-severity surface fire regimes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Winslow D. Hansen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Diane Abendroth
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Grand Teton National Park, Teton Interagency Fire, Moose, Wyoming 83012 USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Grand Teton National Park, Teton Interagency Fire, Moose, Wyoming 83012 USA
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA
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27
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Iglesias V, Whitlock C. If the trees burn, is the forest lost? Past dynamics in temperate forests help inform management strategies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 375:20190115. [PMID: 31983331 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Forest dynamics are driven by top-down changes in climate and bottom-up positive (destabilizing) and negative (stabilizing) biophysical feedbacks involving disturbance and biotic interactions. When positive feedbacks prevail, the resulting self-propagating changes can potentially shift the system into a new state, even in the absence of climate change. Conversely, negative feedbacks help maintain a dynamic equilibrium that allows communities to recover their pre-disturbance characteristics. We examine palaeoenvironmental records from temperate forests to assess the nature of long-term stability and regime shifts under a broader range of environmental forcings than can be observed at present. Forest histories from northwestern USA, Patagonia, Tasmania and New Zealand show long-term trajectories that were governed by (i) the biophysical template, (ii) characteristics of climate and disturbance, (iii) historical legacies that condition the ecological capacity to respond to subsequent disturbances, and (iv) thresholds that act as irreversible barriers. Attention only to current forest conditions overlooks the significance of history in creating path dependency, the importance of individual extreme events, and the inherent feedbacks that force an ecosystem into reorganization. A long-time perspective on ecological resilience helps guide conservation strategies that focus on environmental preservation as well as identify vulnerable species and ecosystems to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Cathy Whitlock
- Department of Earth Sciences and Montana Institute on Ecosystems, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
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28
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Honkaniemi J, Rammer W, Seidl R. Norway spruce at the trailing edge: the effect of landscape configuration and composition on climate resilience. LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 2020; 35:591-606. [PMID: 32214662 PMCID: PMC7081663 DOI: 10.1007/s10980-019-00964-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2019] [Accepted: 12/27/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
CONTEXT Norway spruce (Picea abies) is one of the most widespread tree species in Europe's forests. Due to its high economic value it has been strongly favored by management, especially at the trailing edge of its natural distribution. However, disturbances from wind and bark beetles are increasingly impacting these forests, and their resilience under climate change has been called into question recently. OBJECTIVES We quantified the effects of landscape configuration and composition on (1) the risk from natural disturbances, and (2) on the overall resilience of Norway spruce to changing climate at the trailing edge. METHODS We simulated the dynamics of a 9183 ha forest landscape in Eastern Austria over 190 years. We used the simulation model iLand to experimentally study a wide range of landscape compositions and configurations under five different climate scenarios. RESULTS Natural disturbances increased considerably under all future climate scenarios. Dispersing Norway spruce throughout the landscape in mixed stands resulted in the highest levels of climate resilience. Reducing the percentage of Norway spruce on the landscape increased the resilience of the remaining Norway spruce trees, yet landscape configuration generally had a stronger effect on resilience than composition. CONCLUSIONS The resilience of Norway spruce at the trailing edge of its distribution is challenged by climate change, and considerable efforts are needed to sustain these ecosystems. While currently discussed adaptation measures focus largely on the stand level, we show that modifying landscape composition and configuration can be used to foster Norway spruce resilience while maintaining socio-economically relevant proportions of Norway spruce.
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Affiliation(s)
- Juha Honkaniemi
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Peter-Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Vienna, Austria
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29
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Pettit JM, Burton JI, DeRose RJ, Long JN, Voelker SL. Epidemic spruce beetle outbreak changes drivers of Engelmann spruce regeneration. Ecosphere 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2912] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Jessika M. Pettit
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah 84321 USA
- Department of Forest Ecology Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences Czech University of Life Sciences Prague 16521 Czech Republic
| | - Julia I. Burton
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah 84321 USA
- Department of Forest and Natural Resource Management State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry Syracuse New York 13210 USA
| | - R. Justin DeRose
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah 84321 USA
- USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station Forest Inventory and Analysis 507 25th Street Ogden Utah 84401 USA
| | - James N. Long
- Department of Wildland Resources and Ecology Center Utah State University Logan Utah 84321 USA
| | - Steve L. Voelker
- Department of Plants, Soils, and Climate Utah State University Logan Utah 84321 USA
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30
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Turner MG, Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Harvey BJ. Short-interval severe fire erodes the resilience of subalpine lodgepole pine forests. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019; 116:11319-11328. [PMID: 31110003 PMCID: PMC6561258 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1902841116] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Subalpine forests in the northern Rocky Mountains have been resilient to stand-replacing fires that historically burned at 100- to 300-year intervals. Fire intervals are projected to decline drastically as climate warms, and forests that reburn before recovering from previous fire may lose their ability to rebound. We studied recent fires in Greater Yellowstone (Wyoming, United States) and asked whether short-interval (<30 years) stand-replacing fires can erode lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) forest resilience via increased burn severity, reduced early postfire tree regeneration, reduced carbon stocks, and slower carbon recovery. During 2016, fires reburned young lodgepole pine forests that regenerated after wildfires in 1988 and 2000. During 2017, we sampled 0.25-ha plots in stand-replacing reburns (n = 18) and nearby young forests that did not reburn (n = 9). We also simulated stand development with and without reburns to assess carbon recovery trajectories. Nearly all prefire biomass was combusted ("crown fire plus") in some reburns in which prefire trees were dense and small (≤4-cm basal diameter). Postfire tree seedling density was reduced sixfold relative to the previous (long-interval) fire, and high-density stands (>40,000 stems ha-1) were converted to sparse stands (<1,000 stems ha-1). In reburns, coarse wood biomass and aboveground carbon stocks were reduced by 65 and 62%, respectively, relative to areas that did not reburn. Increased carbon loss plus sparse tree regeneration delayed simulated carbon recovery by >150 years. Forests did not transition to nonforest, but extreme burn severity and reduced tree recovery foreshadow an erosion of forest resilience.
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Affiliation(s)
- Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706;
| | - Kristin H Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706
| | | | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195
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Hansen WD, Turner MG. Origins of abrupt change? Postfire subalpine conifer regeneration declines nonlinearly with warming and drying. ECOL MONOGR 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1340] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Winslow D. Hansen
- Department of Integrative Biology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology; University of Wisconsin-Madison; Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
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Braziunas KH, Hansen WD, Seidl R, Rammer W, Turner MG. Looking beyond the mean: Drivers of variability in postfire stand development of conifers in Greater Yellowstone. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2018; 430:460-471. [PMID: 35645456 PMCID: PMC7612775 DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.08.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
High-severity, infrequent fires in forests shape landscape mosaics of stand age and structure for decades to centuries, and forest structure can vary substantially even among same-aged stands. This variability among stand structures can affect landscape-scale carbon and nitrogen cycling, wildlife habitat availability, and vulnerability to subsequent disturbances. We used an individual-based forest process model (iLand) to ask: Over 300 years of postfire stand development, how does variation in early regeneration densities versus abiotic conditions influence among-stand structural variability for four conifer species widespread in western North America? We parameterized iLand for lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) in Greater Yellowstone (USA). Simulations were initialized with field data on regeneration following stand-replacing fires, and stand development was simulated under historical climatic conditions without further disturbance. Stand structure was characterized by stand density and basal area. Stands became more similar in structure as time since fire increased. Basal area converged more rapidly among stands than tree density for Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine, but not for subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce. For all species, regeneration-driven variation in stand density persisted for at least 99 years postfire, and for lodgepole pine, early regeneration densities dictated among-stand variation for 217 years. Over time, stands shifted from competition-driven convergence to environment-driven divergence, in which variability among stands was maintained or increased. The relative importance of drivers of stand structural variability differed between density and basal area and among species due to differential species traits, growth rates, and sensitivity to intraspecific competition versus abiotic conditions. Understanding dynamics of postfire stand development is increasingly important for anticipating future landscape patterns as fire activity increases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristin H. Braziunas
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States
| | - Winslow D. Hansen
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States
| | - Rupert Seidl
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Werner Rammer
- Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Strasse 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Monica G. Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Birge Hall, 430 Lincoln Drive, Madison, WI 53706, United States
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Dobor L, Hlásny T, Rammer W, Barka I, Trombik J, Pavlenda P, Šebeň V, Štepánek P, Seidl R. Post-disturbance recovery of forest carbon in a temperate forest landscape under climate change. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 2018; 263:308-322. [PMID: 35633776 PMCID: PMC7612774 DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.08.028] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Disturbances alter composition, structure, and functioning of forest ecosystems, and their legacies persist for decades to centuries. We investigated how temperate forest landscapes may recover their carbon (C) after severe wind and bark beetle disturbance, while being exposed to climate change. We used the forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to quantify (i) the recovery times of the total ecosystem C, (ii) the effect of climate change on C recovery, and (iii) the differential factors contributing to C recovery. We reconstructed a recent disturbance episode (2008-2016) based on Landsat satellite imagery, which affected 39% of the forest area in the 16,000 ha study landscape. We subsequently simulated forest recovery under a continuation of business-asusual management until 2100. Our results indicated that the recovery of the pre-disturbance C stocks (C payback time) was reached 17 years after the end of the disturbance episode. The C stocks of a theoretical undisturbed development trajectory were reached 30 years after the disturbance episode (C sequestration parity). Drier and warmer climates delayed simulated C recovery. Without the fertilizing effect of CO2, C payback times were delayed by 5-9 years, while C parity was not reached within the 21st century. Recovery was accelerated by an enhanced C uptake compared to undisturbed conditions (disturbance legacy sink effect) that persisted for 35 years after the disturbance episode. Future climate could have negative impacts on forest recovery and thus further amplify climate change through C loss from ecosystems, but the effect is strongly contingent on the magnitude and persistence of alleviating CO2 effects. Our modelling study highlights the need to consider both negative and positive effects of disturbance (i.e., C loss immediately after an event vs. enhanced C uptake of the recovering forest) in order to obtain a comprehensive understanding of disturbance effects on the forest C cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laura Dobor
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
- Corresponding author. (T. Hlásny)
| | - Werner Rammer
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
| | - Ivan Barka
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Jiří Trombik
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 165 21 Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Pavol Pavlenda
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Vladimír Šebeň
- National Forest Centre – Forest Research Institute Zvolen, T. G. Masaryka 22, 960 92 Zvolen, Slovak Republic
| | - Petr Štepánek
- Global Change Research Institute CAS, Belidla 986/4a, Brno 603 00, Czech Republic
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria
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Sommerfeld A, Senf C, Buma B, D'Amato AW, Després T, Díaz-Hormazábal I, Fraver S, Frelich LE, Gutiérrez ÁG, Hart SJ, Harvey BJ, He HS, Hlásny T, Holz A, Kitzberger T, Kulakowski D, Lindenmayer D, Mori AS, Müller J, Paritsis J, Perry GLW, Stephens SL, Svoboda M, Turner MG, Veblen TT, Seidl R. Patterns and drivers of recent disturbances across the temperate forest biome. Nat Commun 2018; 9:4355. [PMID: 30341309 PMCID: PMC6195561 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-06788-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 68] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2018] [Accepted: 09/28/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasing evidence indicates that forest disturbances are changing in response to global change, yet local variability in disturbance remains high. We quantified this considerable variability and analyzed whether recent disturbance episodes around the globe were consistently driven by climate, and if human influence modulates patterns of forest disturbance. We combined remote sensing data on recent (2001-2014) disturbances with in-depth local information for 50 protected landscapes and their surroundings across the temperate biome. Disturbance patterns are highly variable, and shaped by variation in disturbance agents and traits of prevailing tree species. However, high disturbance activity is consistently linked to warmer and drier than average conditions across the globe. Disturbances in protected areas are smaller and more complex in shape compared to their surroundings affected by human land use. This signal disappears in areas with high recent natural disturbance activity, underlining the potential of climate-mediated disturbance to transform forest landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Sommerfeld
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria.
| | - Cornelius Senf
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
- Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099, Berlin, Germany
| | - Brian Buma
- Dept. of Integrative Biology, University of Colorado, 1151 Arapahoe, Denver, CO, 80204, USA
| | - Anthony W D'Amato
- University of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Aiken Center Room 204E, Burlington, VT, 05495, USA
| | - Tiphaine Després
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
- Institut de Recherche sur les Forêts, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 boulevard de l'Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada
| | - Ignacio Díaz-Hormazábal
- Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, 8820808, Santiago, Chile
| | - Shawn Fraver
- University of Maine, School of Forest Resources, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, Maine, 04469, USA
| | - Lee E Frelich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, 1530 Cleveland Ave. N., St.Paul, MN, 55108, USA
| | - Álvaro G Gutiérrez
- Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas, Departamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Universidad de Chile, Av. Santa Rosa 11315, La Pintana, 8820808, Santiago, Chile
| | - Sarah J Hart
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Brian J Harvey
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
| | - Hong S He
- School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130024, China
| | - Tomáš Hlásny
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Andrés Holz
- Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, OR, 97201, USA
| | - Thomas Kitzberger
- INIBIOMA, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, Bariloche, 8400, Rio Negro, Argentina
| | - Dominik Kulakowski
- Clark University, Graduate School of Geography, Worcester, MA, 01602, USA
| | - David Lindenmayer
- Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Akira S Mori
- Graduate School of Environment and Information Sciences, Yokohama National University, Yokohama, 240-8501, Japan
| | - Jörg Müller
- Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Department of Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Glashüttenstraße 5, 96181, Rauhenebrach, Germany
- Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481, Grafenau, Germany
| | - Juan Paritsis
- INIBIOMA, CONICET-Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Quintral 1250, Bariloche, 8400, Rio Negro, Argentina
| | - George L W Perry
- School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand
| | - Scott L Stephens
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA
| | - Miroslav Svoboda
- Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Kamýcká 129, 165 21, Prague 6, Czech Republic
| | - Monica G Turner
- Department of Integrative Biology, Birge Hall, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - Thomas T Veblen
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, 80309, USA
| | - Rupert Seidl
- University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Institute of Silviculture, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190, Wien, Austria
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Zhang K, Yao L, Meng J, Tao J. Maxent modeling for predicting the potential geographical distribution of two peony species under climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 634:1326-1334. [PMID: 29710632 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 151] [Impact Index Per Article: 25.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2018] [Revised: 04/07/2018] [Accepted: 04/07/2018] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Paeonia (Paeoniaceae), an economically important plant genus, includes many popular ornamentals and medicinal plant species used in traditional Chinese medicine. Little is known about the properties of the habitat distribution and the important eco-environmental factors shaping the suitability. Based on high-resolution environmental data for current and future climate scenarios, we modeled the present and future suitable habitat for P. delavayi and P. rockii by Maxent, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. The results showed that the moderate and high suitable areas for P. delavayi and P. rockii encompassed ca. 4.46×105km2 and 1.89×105km2, respectively. Temperature seasonality and isothermality were identified as the most critical factors shaping P. delavayi distribution, and UVB-4 and annual precipitation were identified as the most critical for shaping P. rockii distribution. Under the scenario with a low concentration of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP2.6), the range of both species increased as global warming intensified; however, under the scenario with higher concentrations of emissions (RCP8.5), the suitable habitat range of P. delavayi decreased while P. rockii increased. Overall, our prediction showed that a shift in distribution of suitable habitat to higher elevations would gradually become more significant. The information gained from this study should provide a useful reference for implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for these species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Keliang Zhang
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology, College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, PR China
| | - Linjun Yao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology, College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, PR China
| | - Jiasong Meng
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology, College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, PR China
| | - Jun Tao
- Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Crop Genetics and Physiology, College of Horticulture and Plant Protection, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, PR China.
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