1
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Richardson LK, Nordstrom SW, Waananen A, Thoen RD, Dykstra AB, Kiefer G, Mullett DE, Eichenberger EG, Shaw RG, Wagenius S. Juvenile survival increases with dispersal distance and varies across years: 15 years of evidence in a prairie perennial. Ecology 2024; 105:e4331. [PMID: 38802284 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2023] [Revised: 02/10/2024] [Accepted: 04/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024]
Abstract
Juvenile survival is critical to population persistence and evolutionary change. However, the survival of juvenile plants from emergence to reproductive maturity is rarely quantified. This is especially true for long-lived perennials with extended pre-reproductive periods. Furthermore, studies rarely have the replication necessary to account for variation among populations and cohorts. We estimated juvenile survival and its relationship to population size, density of conspecifics, distance to the maternal plant, age, year, and cohort for Echinacea angustifolia, a long-lived herbaceous perennial. In 14 remnant prairie populations over seven sampling years, 2007-2013, we identified 886 seedlings. We then monitored these individuals annually until 2021 (8-15 years). Overall, juvenile mortality was very high; for almost all cohorts fewer than 10% of seedlings survived to age 8 or to year 2021. Only two of the seedlings reached reproductive maturity within the study period. Juvenile survival increased with distance from the maternal plant and varied more among the study years than it did by age or cohort. Juvenile survival did not vary with population size or local density of conspecific neighbors. Our results suggest that low juvenile survival could contribute to projected population declines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lea K Richardson
- Program in Plant Biology and Conservation, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, Illinois, USA
- Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, USA
| | - Scott W Nordstrom
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Amy Waananen
- University of Minnesota, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Riley D Thoen
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA
| | - Amy B Dykstra
- Department of Biological Sciences, Bethel University, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Gretel Kiefer
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, Illinois, USA
| | - Drake E Mullett
- Program in Plant Biology and Conservation, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, Illinois, USA
| | - Erin G Eichenberger
- Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Ruth G Shaw
- University of Minnesota, Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Stuart Wagenius
- Negaunee Institute for Plant Conservation Science and Action, Chicago Botanic Garden, Glencoe, Illinois, USA
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2
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Oro D, Waldrep C, Bertolero A, Genovart M. Drivers of resource allocation for breeding under variable environments in a bet hedger. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10485. [PMID: 37693935 PMCID: PMC10483097 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10485] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2023] [Revised: 08/14/2023] [Accepted: 08/18/2023] [Indexed: 09/12/2023] Open
Abstract
The evolutionary theory of life histories predicts that there is a trade-off between survival and reproduction: since adult survival in long-lived organisms is high, then breeding investment is more variable and more dependent on conditions (e.g. food availability and individual experience). Clutch features influence fitness prospects, but how a bet hedger builds its clutch in temporally varying environments is quite unknown. Using 27-year data on 2847 clutches of known-age breeders, we analyse how Audouin's gulls (Larus audouinii), a species showing a combination of conservative and adaptive bet-hedging breeding strategies, can allocate energy by laying clutches and eggs of different sizes. Results show that both food availability and age influenced clutch size and total egg volume in a clutch. Interestingly, we found an interaction between food and age on egg parameters: total volume in two-egg clutches, laid mostly by younger breeders, did not significantly change with food availability and the quadratic pattern in clutch size over the range of ages was less marked as long as food conditions became harsher. With increased food, females invested more by building larger first eggs, whereas they were more conservative on second and third eggs. Furthermore, asymmetries in egg volume within three-egg clutches increased with food availability for old females. Egg size profiles of two-egg clutches suggest that gulls should exhibit progressive reduction of the size of the third egg before shifting to a two-egg clutch size. Food availability influenced all parameters studied, whereas age affected the amount of energy allocated for producing eggs (their size and number) but not the way of allocating those energies (i.e. asymmetries within the clutch). Despite the range of factors affecting the clutch, results suggest that females can allocate the amount of resources in a clutch optimally to increase their fitness under variable environments via bet-hedging.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Oro
- Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes – CEAB (CSIC)BlanesSpain
| | - Cassidy Waldrep
- Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes – CEAB (CSIC)BlanesSpain
- Department of BiologyMiami UniversityOxfordOhioUSA
- Department of BiologyUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada
| | - Albert Bertolero
- Associació Ornitològica Picampall de les Terres de l'Ebre, La GaleraAmpostaSpain
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3
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Searle KR, Butler A, Waggitt JJ, Evans PGH, Bogdanova MI, Hobbs NT, Daunt F, Wanless S. Opposing effects of spatiotemporal variation in resources and temporal variation in climate on density dependent population growth in seabirds. J Anim Ecol 2022; 91:2384-2399. [PMID: 36177549 PMCID: PMC10092667 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation-temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam Butler
- Bioinformatics and Statistics ScotlandEdinburghUK
| | | | | | | | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability & Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
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4
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Payo‐Payo A, Sanz‐Aguilar A, Oro D. Long‐lasting effects of harsh early‐life conditions on adult survival of a long‐lived vertebrate. OIKOS 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ana Payo‐Payo
- School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - Ana Sanz‐Aguilar
- Animal Demography and Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC‐UIB) Esporles Spain
- Applied Zoology and Conservation Group, Univ. of the Balearic Islands Palma Spain
| | - Daniel Oro
- Applied Zoology and Conservation Group, Univ. of the Balearic Islands Palma Spain
- Centro de Estudios Avanzados de Blanes (CEAB) Blanes Spain
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5
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Genovart M, Klementisová K, Oro D, Fernández-López P, Bertolero A, Bartumeus F. Inferring the age of breeders from easily measurable variables. Sci Rep 2022; 12:15851. [PMID: 36151237 PMCID: PMC9508115 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-19381-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Age drives differences in fitness components typically due to lower performances of younger and senescent individuals, and changes in breeding age structure influence population dynamics and persistence. However, determining age and age structure is challenging in most species, where distinctive age features are lacking and available methods require substantial efforts or invasive procedures. Here we explore the potential to assess the age of breeders, or at least to identify young and senescent individuals, by measuring some breeding parameters partially driven by age (e.g. egg volume in birds). Taking advantage of a long-term population monitored seabird, we first assessed whether age influenced egg volume, and identified other factors driving this trait by using general linear models. Secondly, we developed and evaluated a machine learning algorithm to assess the age of breeders using measurable variables. We confirmed that both younger and older individuals performed worse (less and smaller eggs) than middle-aged individuals. Our ensemble training algorithm was only able to distinguish young individuals, but not senescent breeders. We propose to test the combined use of field monitoring, classic regression analysis and machine learning methods in other wild populations were measurable breeding parameters are partially driven by age, as a possible tool for assessing age structure in the wild.
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Affiliation(s)
- Meritxell Genovart
- CEAB (CSIC), Carrer Accés Cala Sant Francesc, 14, 17300, Blanes, Catalonia, Spain. .,IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès 21, 07190, Esporles, Balearic Islands, Spain.
| | | | - Daniel Oro
- CEAB (CSIC), Carrer Accés Cala Sant Francesc, 14, 17300, Blanes, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Pol Fernández-López
- CEAB (CSIC), Carrer Accés Cala Sant Francesc, 14, 17300, Blanes, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Albert Bertolero
- Associació Ornitològica Picampall de les Terres de l'Ebre, Amposta, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Frederic Bartumeus
- CEAB (CSIC), Carrer Accés Cala Sant Francesc, 14, 17300, Blanes, Catalonia, Spain.,CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.,ICREA, Passeig Lluis Companys 23, 08010, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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6
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It’s not all abundance: Detectability and accessibility of food also explain breeding investment in long-lived marine animals. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0273615. [PMID: 36129934 PMCID: PMC9491606 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0273615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/13/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Large-scale climatic indices are extensively used as predictors of ecological processes, but the mechanisms and the spatio-temporal scales at which climatic indices influence these processes are often speculative. Here, we use long-term data to evaluate how a measure of individual breeding investment (the egg volume) of three long-lived and long-distance-migrating seabirds is influenced by i) a large-scale climatic index (the North Atlantic Oscillation) and ii) local-scale variables (food abundance, foraging conditions, and competition). Winter values of the North Atlantic Oscillation did not correlate with local-scale variables measured in spring, but surprisingly, both had a high predictive power of the temporal variability of the egg volume in the three study species, even though they have different life-history strategies. The importance of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation suggests carry-over effects of winter conditions on subsequent breeding investment. Interestingly, the most important local-scale variables measured in spring were associated with food detectability (foraging conditions) and the factors influencing its accessibility (foraging conditions and competition by density-dependence). Large-scale climatic indices may work better as predictors of foraging conditions when organisms perform long distance migrations, while local-scale variables are more appropriate when foraging areas are more restricted (e.g. during the breeding season). Contrary to what is commonly assumed, food abundance does not directly translate into food intake and its detectability and accessibility should be considered in the study of food-related ecological processes.
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7
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Houstin A, Zitterbart DP, Heerah K, Eisen O, Planas-Bielsa V, Fabry B, Le Bohec C. Juvenile emperor penguin range calls for extended conservation measures in the Southern Ocean. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:211708. [PMID: 36061529 PMCID: PMC9428539 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211708] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
To protect the unique and rich biodiversity of the Southern Ocean, conservation measures such as marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented. Currently, the establishment of several additional protection zones is being considered based on the known habitat distributions of key species of the ecosystems including emperor penguins and other marine top predators. However, the distribution of such species at sea is often insufficiently sampled. Specifically, current distribution models focus on the habitat range of adult animals and neglect that immatures and juveniles can inhabit different areas. By tracking eight juvenile emperor penguins in the Weddell Sea over 1 year and performing a meta-analysis including previously known data from other colonies, we show that conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean are insufficient for protecting this highly mobile species, and particularly its juveniles. We find that juveniles spend approximately 90% of their time outside the boundaries of proposed and existing MPAs, and that their distribution extends beyond (greater than 1500 km) the species' extent of occurrence as defined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Our data exemplify that strategic conservation plans for the emperor penguin and other long-lived ecologically important species should consider the dynamic habitat range of all age classes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aymeric Houstin
- Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Département de Biologie Polaire, Monaco 98000, Principality of Monaco
- Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg F-67000, France
| | - Daniel P. Zitterbart
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91054, Germany
- Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Karine Heerah
- Zoophysiology, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C 8000, Denmark
| | - Olaf Eisen
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven 27570, Germany
- Fachbereich Geowissenschaften, Universität Bremen, Bremen 28359, Germany
| | - Víctor Planas-Bielsa
- Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Département de Biologie Polaire, Monaco 98000, Principality of Monaco
| | - Ben Fabry
- Department of Physics, Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen 91054, Germany
| | - Céline Le Bohec
- Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Département de Biologie Polaire, Monaco 98000, Principality of Monaco
- Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, IPHC UMR 7178, Strasbourg F-67000, France
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8
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Oppel S, Clark BL, Risi MM, Horswill C, Converse SJ, Jones CW, Osborne AM, Stevens K, Perold V, Bond AL, Wanless RM, Cuthbert R, Cooper J, Ryan PG. Cryptic population decrease due to invasive species predation in a long‐lived seabird supports need for eradication. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Steffen Oppel
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Bethany L. Clark
- BirdLife International The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Michelle M. Risi
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Catharine Horswill
- ZSL Institute of Zoology, Regent's Park London UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London London UK
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
| | - Sarah J. Converse
- U.S. Geological Survey, Washington Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences & School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington Seattle WA USA
| | - Christopher W. Jones
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Alexis M. Osborne
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Kim Stevens
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Vonica Perold
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
| | - Alexander L. Bond
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
- Bird Group, Department of Life Sciences The Natural History Museum Tring Hertfordshire UK
| | - Ross M. Wanless
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
| | - Richard Cuthbert
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The David Attenborough Building Cambridge UK
- World Land Trust Halesworth UK
| | - John Cooper
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
| | - Peter G. Ryan
- FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology University of Cape Town Rondebosch South Africa
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9
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Warret Rodrigues C, Angin B, Besnard A. Favoring recruitment as a conservation strategy to improve the resilience of long-lived reptile populations: Insights from a population viability analysis. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:13068-13080. [PMID: 34646453 PMCID: PMC8495825 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.8021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2021] [Revised: 07/09/2021] [Accepted: 07/22/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
In long-lived species, although adult survival typically has the highest elasticity, temporal variations in less canalized demographic parameters are the main drivers of population dynamics. Targeting recruitment rates may thus be the most effective strategy to manage these species. We analyzed 1,136 capture-recapture histories collected over 9 years in an isolated population of the critically endangered Lesser Antillean iguana, using a robust design Pradel model to estimate adult survival and recruitment rates. From an adult population size estimated at 928 in 2013, we found a yearly decline of 4% over the 8-year period. As expected under the canalization hypothesis for a long-lived species, adult survival was high and constant, with little possibility for improvement, whereas the recruitment rate varied over time and likely drove the observed population decline. We then used a prospective perturbation analysis to explore whether managing the species' immature cohorts would at least slow the population decline. The prospective perturbation analysis suggested that a significant and sustained conservation effort would be needed to achieve a recruitment rate high enough to slow the population decline. We posit that the high recruitment rate achieved in 2014-likely due to the maintenance in 2012 of the main nesting sites used by this population-would be sufficient to slow this population's decline if it was sustained each year. Based on the results of diverse pilot studies we conducted, we identified the most likely threats targeting the eggs and immature cohorts, stressing the need to improve reproductive success and survival of immature iguanas. The threats we identified are also involved in the decline of several reptile species, and species from other taxa such as ground-nesting birds. These findings on a little-studied taxon provide further evidence that focusing on the immature life stages of long-lived species can be key to their conservation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chloé Warret Rodrigues
- Office National de la Chasse et de la Faune SauvageCellule Technique des Antilles françaisesTrois‐îletsFrance
- Department of Biological SciencesUniversity of ManitobaWinnipegCanada
| | | | - Aurélien Besnard
- CEFEUniv MontpellierCNRSEPHE‐PSL UniversityIRDUniv Paul Valéry Montpellier 3MontpellierFrance
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10
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Oro D, Bécares J, Bartumeus F, Arcos JM. High frequency of prospecting for informed dispersal and colonisation in a social species at large spatial scale. Oecologia 2021; 197:395-409. [PMID: 34550445 PMCID: PMC8505276 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-05040-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/06/2021] [Accepted: 09/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Animals explore and prospect space searching for resources and individuals may disperse, targeting suitable patches to increase fitness. Nevertheless, dispersal is costly because it implies leaving the patch where the individual has gathered information and reduced uncertainty. In social species, information gathered during the prospection process for deciding whether and where to disperse is not only personal but also public, i.e. conspecific density and breeding performance. In empty patches, public information is not available and dispersal for colonisation would be more challenging. Here we study the prospecting in a metapopulation of colonial Audouin's gulls using PTT platform terminal transmitters tagging for up to 4 years and GPS tagging during the incubation period. A large percentage of birds (65%) prospected occupied patches; strikingly, 62% of prospectors also visited empty patches that were colonised in later years. Frequency and intensity of prospecting were higher for failed breeders, who dispersed more than successful breeders. Prospecting and dispersal also occurred mostly to neighbouring patches where population density was higher. GPSs revealed that many breeders (59%) prospected while actively incubating, which suggests that they gathered information before knowing the fate of their reproduction. Prospecting may be enhanced in species adapted to breed in ephemeral habitats, such as Audouin's gulls. Interestingly, none of the tracked individuals colonised an empty patch despite having prospected over a period of up to three consecutive years. Lack of public information in empty patches may drive extended prospecting, long time delays in colonisation and non-linear transient phenomena in metapopulation dynamics and species range expansion.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel Oro
- Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CEAB (CSIC), Acces Cala Sant Francesc 14, 17300, Blanes, Spain.
| | - Juan Bécares
- SEO/BirdLife-Marine Programe, Delegació de Catalunya, 08026, Barcelona, Spain.,CORY'S-Investigación y Conservación de la Biodiversidad, 08016, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Frederic Bartumeus
- Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes-CEAB (CSIC), Acces Cala Sant Francesc 14, 17300, Blanes, Spain
| | - José Manuel Arcos
- SEO/BirdLife-Marine Programe, Delegació de Catalunya, 08026, Barcelona, Spain
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11
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Woodworth BK, Fuller RA, Hemson G, McDougall A, Congdon BC, Low M. Trends in seabird breeding populations across the Great Barrier Reef. CONSERVATION BIOLOGY : THE JOURNAL OF THE SOCIETY FOR CONSERVATION BIOLOGY 2021; 35:846-858. [PMID: 32885491 PMCID: PMC8336572 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13630] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2019] [Revised: 08/17/2020] [Accepted: 08/28/2020] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
The Great Barrier Reef is an iconic ecosystem, known globally for its rich marine biodiversity that includes many thousands of tropical breeding seabirds. Despite indications of localized declines in some seabird species from as early as the mid-1990s, trends in seabird populations across the reef have never been quantified. With a long history of human impact and ongoing environmental change, seabirds are likely sentinels in this important ecosystem. Using 4 decades of monitoring data, we estimated site-specific trends for 9 seabird species from 32 islands and cays across the reef. Trends varied markedly among species and sites, but probable declines occurred at 45% of the 86 species-by-site combinations analyzed compared with increases at 14%. For 5 species, we combined site-specific trends into a multisite trend in scaled abundance, which revealed probable declines of Common Noddy (Anous stolidus), Sooty Tern (Onychoprion fuscatus), and Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), but no long-term changes in the 2 most widely distributed species, Greater Crested Tern (Thalasseus bergii) and Brown Booby (Sula leucogaster). For Brown Booby, long-term stability largely resulted from increases at a single large colony on East Fairfax Island that offset declines at most other sites. Although growth of the Brown Booby population on East Fairfax points to the likely success of habitat restoration on the island, it also highlights a general vulnerability wherein large numbers of some species are concentrated at a small number of key sites. Identifying drivers of variation in population change across species and sites while ensuring long-term protection of key sites will be essential to securing the future of seabirds on the reef.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Richard A. Fuller
- School of Biological SciencesUniversity of QueenslandBrisbaneQLD4072Australia
| | - Graham Hemson
- Queensland Parks and Wildlife ServiceGreat Barrier Reef and Marine Parks RegionRockhamptonQLD4701Australia
| | - Andrew McDougall
- Queensland Parks and Wildlife ServiceGreat Barrier Reef and Marine Parks RegionRockhamptonQLD4701Australia
| | - Bradley C. Congdon
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and College of Science and EngineeringJames Cook UniversityCairnsQLD4870Australia
| | - Matthew Low
- Department of EcologySwedish University of Agricultural SciencesUppsala750 07Sweden
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12
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Omeyer LCM, Stokes KL, Beton D, Çiçek BA, Davey S, Fuller WJ, Godley BJ, Sherley RB, Snape RTE, Broderick AC. Investigating differences in population recovery rates of two sympatrically nesting sea turtle species. Anim Conserv 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12689] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- L. C. M. Omeyer
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
| | - K. L. Stokes
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
- Department of Biosciences Swansea University Singleton Park Swansea UK
| | - D. Beton
- Society for the Protection of Turtles Gönyeli North Cyprus
| | - B. A. Çiçek
- Faculty of Arts and Sciences Eastern Mediterranean University Famagusta North Cyprus
| | - S. Davey
- Society for the Protection of Turtles Gönyeli North Cyprus
| | - W. J. Fuller
- Society for the Protection of Turtles Gönyeli North Cyprus
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine Near East University Nicosia North Cyprus
| | - B. J. Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
| | - R. B. Sherley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
| | - R. T. E. Snape
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
- Society for the Protection of Turtles Gönyeli North Cyprus
| | - A. C. Broderick
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation College of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Exeter Penryn UK
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13
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A modelling framework for integrating reproduction, survival and count data when projecting the fates of threatened populations. Oecologia 2021; 195:627-640. [PMID: 33646386 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04871-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2020] [Accepted: 02/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
A key goal of ecological research is to obtain reliable estimates of population demographic rates, abundance and trends. However, a common challenge when studying wildlife populations is imperfect detection or breeding observation, which results in unknown survival status and reproductive output for some individuals. It is important to account for undetected individuals in population models because they contribute to population abundance and dynamics, and can have implications for population management. Promisingly, recent methodological advances provide us with the tools to integrate data from multiple independent sources to gain insights into the unobserved component of populations. We use data from five reintroduced populations of a threatened New Zealand bird, the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), to develop an integrated population modelling framework that allows missing values for survival status, sex and reproductive output to be modelled. Our approach combines parallel matrices of encounter and reproduction histories from marked individuals, as well as counts of unmarked recruits detected at the start of each breeding season. Integrating these multiple data types enabled us to simultaneously model survival and reproduction of detected individuals, undetected individuals and unknown (never detected) individuals to derive parameter estimates and projections based on all available data, thereby improving our understanding of population dynamics and enabling full propagation of uncertainty. The methods presented will be especially useful for management programmes for populations that are intensively monitored but where individuals are still imperfectly detected, as will be the case for most threatened wild populations.
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Genovart M, Gimenez O, Bertolero A, Choquet R, Oro D, Pradel R. Decrease in social cohesion in a colonial seabird under a perturbation regime. Sci Rep 2020; 10:18720. [PMID: 33127979 PMCID: PMC7603481 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-75259-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2020] [Accepted: 09/14/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Social interactions, through influence on behavioural processes, can play an important role in populations’ resilience (i.e. ability to cope with perturbations). However little is known about the effects of perturbations on the strength of social cohesion in wild populations. Long-term associations between individuals may reflect the existence of social cohesion for seizing the evolutionary advantages of social living. We explore the existence of social cohesion and its dynamics under perturbations by analysing long-term social associations, in a colonial seabird, the Audouin’s gull Larus audouinii, living in a site experiencing a shift to a perturbed regime. Our goals were namely (1) to uncover the occurrence of long-term social ties (i.e. associations) between individuals and (2) to examine whether the perturbation regime affected this form of social cohesion. We analysed a dataset of more than 3500 individuals from 25 years of monitoring by means of contingency tables and within the Social Network Analysis framework. We showed that associations between individuals are not only due to philopatry or random gregariousness but that there are social ties between individuals over the years. Furthermore, social cohesion decreased under the perturbation regime. We sustain that perturbations may lead not only to changes in individuals’ behaviour and fitness but also to a change in populations’ social cohesion. The consequences of decreasing social cohesion are still not well understood, but they can be critical for the population dynamics of social species.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Genovart
- CEAB (CSIC), Accés Cala Sant Francesc 14, 17300, Blanes, Spain. .,IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès 21, 07190, Esporles, Spain.
| | - O Gimenez
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier, Univ. Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, 34293, Montpellier, France
| | - A Bertolero
- Associació Ornitològica Picampall de les Terres de l'Ebre, 43580, Deltebre, Spain
| | - R Choquet
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier, Univ. Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, 34293, Montpellier, France
| | - D Oro
- CEAB (CSIC), Accés Cala Sant Francesc 14, 17300, Blanes, Spain.,IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Miquel Marquès 21, 07190, Esporles, Spain
| | - R Pradel
- CEFE, CNRS, Univ. Montpellier, Univ. Paul Valéry Montpellier 3, EPHE, IRD, 34293, Montpellier, France
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Breeding transients in capture-recapture modeling and their consequences for local population dynamics. Sci Rep 2020; 10:15815. [PMID: 32978429 PMCID: PMC7519680 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-72778-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2020] [Accepted: 07/22/2020] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Abstract
Standard procedures for capture-mark-recapture modelling (CMR) for the study of animal demography include running goodness-of-fit tests on a general starting model. A frequent reason for poor model fit is heterogeneity in local survival among individuals captured for the first time and those already captured or seen on previous occasions. This deviation is technically termed a transience effect. In specific cases, simple, uni-state CMR modeling showing transients may allow researchers to assess the role of these transients on population dynamics. Transient individuals nearly always have a lower local survival probability, which may appear for a number of reasons. In most cases, transients arise due to permanent dispersal, higher mortality, or a combination of both. In the case of higher mortality, transients may be symptomatic of a cost of first reproduction. A few studies working at large spatial scales actually show that transients more often correspond to survival costs of first reproduction rather than to permanent dispersal, bolstering the interpretation of transience as a measure of costs of reproduction, since initial detections are often associated with first breeding attempts. Regardless of their cause, the loss of transients from a local population should lower population growth rate. We review almost 1000 papers using CMR modeling and find that almost 40% of studies fitting the searching criteria (N = 115) detected transients. Nevertheless, few researchers have considered the ecological or evolutionary meaning of the transient phenomenon. Only three studies from the reviewed papers considered transients to be a cost of first reproduction. We also analyze a long-term individual monitoring dataset (1988-2012) on a long-lived bird to quantify transients, and we use a life table response experiment (LTRE) to measure the consequences of transients at a population level. As expected, population growth rate decreased when the environment became harsher while the proportion of transients increased. LTRE analysis showed that population growth can be substantially affected by changes in traits that are variable under environmental stochasticity and deterministic perturbations, such as recruitment, fecundity of experienced individuals, and transient probabilities. This occurred even though sensitivities and elasticities of these parameters were much lower than those for adult survival. The proportion of transients also increased with the strength of density-dependence. These results have implications for ecological and evolutionary studies and may stimulate other researchers to explore the ecological processes behind the occurrence of transients in capture-recapture studies. In population models, the inclusion of a specific state for transients may help to make more reliable predictions for endangered and harvested species.
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Couet P, Gally F, Canonne C, Besnard A. Joint estimation of survival and breeding probability in female dolphins and calves with uncertainty in state assignment. Ecol Evol 2019; 9:13043-13055. [PMID: 31871628 PMCID: PMC6912916 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.5693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2019] [Revised: 08/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/06/2019] [Indexed: 12/01/2022] Open
Abstract
While the population growth rate in long-lived species is highly sensitive to adult survival, reproduction can also significantly drive population dynamics. Reproductive parameters can be challenging to estimate as breeders and nonbreeders may vary in resighting probability and reproductive status may be difficult to assess. We extended capture-recapture (CR) models previously fitted for data on other long-lived marine mammals to estimate demographic parameters while accounting for detection heterogeneity between individuals and state uncertainty regarding reproductive status. We applied this model to data on 106 adult female bottlenose dolphins observed over 13 years. The detection probability differed depending on breeding status. Concerning state uncertainty, offspring were not always sighted with their mother, and older calves were easier to detect than young-of-the-year (YOY), respectively, 0.79 (95% CI 0.59-0.90) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.68). This possibly led to inaccurate reproductive status assignment of females. Adult female survival probability was high (0.97 CI 95% 0.96-0.98) and did not differ according to breeding status. Young-of-the-year and 1-year-old calves had a significantly higher survival rate than 2-year-old (respectively, 0.66 CI 95% 0.50-0.78 and 0.45 CI 95% 0.29-0.61). This reduced survival is probably related to weaning, a period during which young are exposed to more risks since they lose protection and feeding from the mother. The probability of having a new YOY was high for breeding females that had raised a calf to the age of 3 or lost a 2-year-old calf (0.71, CI 95% 0.45-0.88). Yet, this probability was much lower for nonbreeding females and breeding females that had lost a YOY or a 1-year-old calf (0.33, 95% CI 0.26-0.42). The multievent CR framework we used is highly flexible and could be easily modified for other study questions or taxa (marine or terrestrial) aimed at modeling reproductive parameters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pauline Couet
- CNRSUMSupAgroIRDINRAUMR 5175 CEFEEPHEPSL Research UniversityMontpellierFrance
- Groupe d'Etude des Cétacés du CotentinCherbourg‐OctevilleFrance
| | - François Gally
- Groupe d'Etude des Cétacés du CotentinCherbourg‐OctevilleFrance
| | - Coline Canonne
- CNRSUMSupAgroIRDINRAUMR 5175 CEFEEPHEPSL Research UniversityMontpellierFrance
- Direction Recherche et ExpertiseONCFSSaint‐BenoitAuffargisFrance
| | - Aurélien Besnard
- CNRSUMSupAgroIRDINRAUMR 5175 CEFEEPHEPSL Research UniversityMontpellierFrance
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Colomer MÀ, Oliva‐Vidal P, Jiménez J, Martínez JM, Margalida A. Prioritizing among removal scenarios for the reintroduction of endangered species: insights from bearded vulture simulation modeling. Anim Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12549] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- M. À. Colomer
- Department of Mathematics Faculty of Life Sciences and Engineering University of Lleida Lleida Spain
| | - P. Oliva‐Vidal
- Department of Animal Science (Division of Wildlife) Faculty of Life Sciences and Engineering University of Lleida Lleida Spain
| | - J. Jiménez
- Institute for Game and Wildlife Research IREC (CSIC‐UCLM‐JCCM) Ciudad Real Spain
| | - J. M. Martínez
- Subdirección General de Desarrollo Rural y Sostenibilidad Departamento Medio Ambiente Gobierno de Aragón Huesca Spain
| | - A. Margalida
- Institute for Game and Wildlife Research IREC (CSIC‐UCLM‐JCCM) Ciudad Real Spain
- Division of Conservation Biology Institute of Ecology and Evolution University of Bern Bern Switzerland
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Pereira MG, Lawlor A, Bertolero A, Díez S, Shore RF, Lacorte S. Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Mercury in Gulls Eggs from the Iberian Peninsula. ARCHIVES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONTAMINATION AND TOXICOLOGY 2019; 76:394-404. [PMID: 30564852 PMCID: PMC6422990 DOI: 10.1007/s00244-018-0584-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2018] [Accepted: 11/27/2018] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
We examined how coastal mercury contamination varied spatially and temporally across the Iberian Peninsula by measuring mercury concentrations in the eggs of the sentinel biomonitor yellow-legged gull (Larus michahellis). Samples were collected from eight colonies that ranged from the Atlantic across the south and northern areas of the Mediterranean. We also measured Hg residues in eggs of the one of the most endangered gull species in the world, the Audouin's gull (Larus audouinii) from the Ebro Delta, where colonies of yellow-legged and Audouin's gull co-occur. Fresh eggs were collected in 2009 and 2016 and samples were pooled from each colony for analysis. Mercury concentrations in yellow-legged gulls ranged between 0.4 and 2.8 mg/kg dry weight (dw); although there were no significant differences in concentrations between sampling periods, significant differences were found between colonies. Higher concentrations were associated with northern Mediterranean colonies (Columbretes and Ebro Delta), likely due to proximity to emission sources, circulatory marine currents and diet composition. Mercury concentrations in yellow-legged gull eggs were lower than those reported to result in impaired hatching. Residues in Audouin's gull eggs from the Ebro Delta were significantly higher (4.0-5.6 mg/kg dw) than those in yellow-legged gull from the same location, probably associated with dietary differences. Mercury levels in Audouin's gull were ten times above the benchmark suggested to reduce nest success by 10%. Overall, these results raise concern for adverse health impacts in this protected seabird species and further investigation in Audouin's gull eggs from the Ebro Delta is recommended.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Glória Pereira
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK.
| | - Alan Lawlor
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Albert Bertolero
- Associació Ornitològica Picampall de les Terres de l'Ebre, Amposta, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Sergi Díez
- Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDÆA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
| | - Richard F Shore
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Silvia Lacorte
- Department of Environmental Chemistry, Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDÆA-CSIC, Jordi Girona 18-26, 08034, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain
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Monti F, Duriez O, Dominici JM, Sforzi A, Robert A, Grémillet D. Conserving wildlife facing mass-tourism calls for effective management. Anim Conserv 2018. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12474] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- F. Monti
- Department of Physical Sciences, Earth and Environment; University of Siena; Siena Italy
| | - O. Duriez
- CEFE UMR 5175; CNRS; Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier; EPHE; Montpellier Cedex 5 France
| | - J.-M. Dominici
- Réserve Naturelle Scandola; Parc Naturel Régional de Corse; Galeria France
| | - A. Sforzi
- Maremma Natural History Museum; Grosseto Italy
| | - A. Robert
- CEFE UMR 5175; CNRS; Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier; EPHE; Montpellier Cedex 5 France
| | - D. Grémillet
- CEFE UMR 5175; CNRS; Université de Montpellier; Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier; EPHE; Montpellier Cedex 5 France
- FitzPatrick Institute; DST/NRF Centre of Excellence at the University of Cape Town; Rondebosch South Africa
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